{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Villarreal", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261024", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1374, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0848, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1374, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Villarreal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2686, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1374 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1254 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1004 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0963 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0903 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0963, "0-1": 0.1374, "0-2": 0.1004, "0-3": 0.0486, "0-4": 0.0176, "0-5": 0.0051, "0-6": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0848, "1-1": 0.1254, "1-2": 0.0903, "1-3": 0.0437, "1-4": 0.0158, "1-5": 0.0046, "1-6": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0385, "2-1": 0.0559, "2-2": 0.0406, "2-3": 0.0196, "2-4": 0.0071, "2-5": 0.0021, "3-0": 0.0115, "3-1": 0.0168, "3-2": 0.0122, "3-3": 0.0059, "3-4": 0.0021, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0026, "4-1": 0.0038, "4-2": 0.0027, "4-3": 0.0013, "5-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2324, "draw": 0.2686, "away_win": 0.4989 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4172, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5828, "btts_yes": 0.455, "btts_no": 0.545, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2343, "away_clean_sheet": 0.407 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 6.9 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.92, "MCR": 7.02, "ATR": 7.01, "GK": 7.07 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Valencia 2W-3D-5L vs Villarreal over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Alberto Moleiro", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Pape Gueye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.23. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 0.899, "away_lambda": 1.451, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 0.9786, "away_multiplier": 1.0214 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1374, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2324, "draw": 0.2686, "away_win": 0.4989 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4989, "fair_spread": -0.552, "fair_total": 2.35, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 0.899, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.451, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4172, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.455, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2343, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.407, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1871, "probability": 0.1706, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.3937, "probability": 0.3254, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Javier Guerra (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1193, "probability": 0.1125, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.2197, "probability": 0.1972, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.35, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 910, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.2, "possession_away_pct": 50.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4989, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.55 goals and fair total 2.35.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Alberto Moleiro against Justin De Haas, César Tárrega in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Harvey Elliott, Hugo Duro, Diego López.", "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Alberto Moleiro; bench watchlist: Carlos Maciá, Nathan-Dylan Saliba, Tani Oluwaseyi.", "Assist usage should flow through Ilias Akhomach; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.18 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Valencia": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Stole Dimitrievski": { "player_id": 97951, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0084, "rating": 6.9041, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 44, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.9238, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.7315, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4207, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro, Ayoze Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421074, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1026 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 9, "goals_prevented": 0.2949 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3169 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3457 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.2532 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0829 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416291, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -2.2955 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4455 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0564 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9127 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2524, "combined_rank_score": 913.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 280.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.065, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 1546.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9041, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Stole Dimitrievski", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 }, { "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking": 2522 }, { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuele Ricci", "ranking": 2525 }, { "player_name": "Yahir Salazar", "ranking": 2526 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hwan Lee", "ranking": 2527 }, { "player_name": "Yanis Lhéry", "ranking": 2528 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Kevin Aquilina", "ranking": 2529 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.997, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Valencia", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 29 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Valencia, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.976, "goals_prevented": -0.0085, "rating": 6.9041, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 32.3695, "accurate_pass": 18.9296, "total_long_balls": 17.7954, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9573, "touches": 43.945, "clearances": 1.0337, "ball_recovery": 9.1194, "high_claims": 1.7413, "punches": 0.9266, "aerial_won": 0.1774, "sweeper_actions": 1.1127, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0936, "saves_inside_box": 2.1463, "possession_lost": 13.7728, "duels_won": 0.4651, "duels_lost": 0.0183, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2814, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0591, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6577 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:04:55.355626+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 200, "rows": 7186 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-11", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "possessionLostCtrl": 13.7728, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8012, "saves": 3.504, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.1896, "save_contribution": 3.3848, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 15.6577 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.976043224334717, "model_output": 2.976, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0396 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0356 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 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"name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0377 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0276, "items": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": -0.0085, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.027557, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.022095 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.020878 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.013146 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.011146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01044 } ], "others_margin": -0.011436 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.904077529907227, "model_output": 6.9041, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0419 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"after": 0.3792 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1894, "after": 0.145 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1718, "after": 0.1315 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0936, "after": 0.0716 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1315, "goal_rate": 0.145, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4711, "total_shots": 1.2292, "expected_assists": 0.095, "key_pass": 1.0377, "rating": 6.8643, "minutes": 82.02, "total_pass": 17.2074, "accurate_pass": 13.4605, "duels_won": 3.2191, "total_long_balls": 0.9893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5093, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3905, "crosses_total": 2.4484, "crosses_accurate": 0.9041, "touches": 30.0363, "possession_lost": 9.1813, "dispossessed": 0.6114, "duels_lost": 2.9485, "aerial_lost": 0.3813, 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"assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1338, "goal_rate": 0.145, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4711, "total_shots": 1.2292, "expected_assists": 0.0967, "key_pass": 1.0377, "rating": 6.8643, "minutes": 82.02, "total_pass": 17.2074, "accurate_pass": 13.4605, "duels_won": 3.2191, "total_long_balls": 0.9893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5093, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3905, "crosses_total": 2.4484, "crosses_accurate": 0.9041, "touches": 30.0363, "possession_lost": 9.1813, "dispossessed": 0.6114, "duels_lost": 2.9485, "aerial_lost": 0.3813, "total_contest": 2.6336, "won_contest": 1.4123, "ball_recovery": 1.8057, 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0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.899, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0437 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0392 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0266 } ], "others": 0.0479, "total": 0.874, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.254595 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.048571 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.043436 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.034116 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031743 } ], "others_margin": 0.056406 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741034984588623, "model_output": 6.741, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1518, "goals": 0.1563, "goal_rate": 0.1563, "shots_on_target": 0.4049, "total_shots": 1.2095, "expected_assists": 0.078, "key_pass": 0.872, "rating": 6.741, "minutes": 77.73, "total_pass": 22.0366, "accurate_pass": 16.6421, "duels_won": 2.5697, "total_long_balls": 1.981, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8102, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5962, "crosses_total": 3.9036, "crosses_accurate": 1.0296, "touches": 35.8503, "possession_lost": 11.2229, "dispossessed": 0.7164, "duels_lost": 3.0163, "aerial_lost": 0.3757, "total_contest": 1.3538, "won_contest": 0.7625, "ball_recovery": 3.3583, "challenges_lost": 0.8791, "fouls": 0.4539, "fouls_drawn": 0.5314, "assists": 0.137, "assist_rate": 0.137, "interceptions": 0.408, "tackles_won": 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"pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1146, "goal_rate": 0.116, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3004, "total_shots": 0.8973, "expected_assists": 0.0794, "key_pass": 0.872, "rating": 6.741, "minutes": 77.73, "total_pass": 22.0366, "accurate_pass": 16.6421, "duels_won": 2.5697, "total_long_balls": 1.981, 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"margin_base": -2.364919, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.252146 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.171094 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110782 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.087154 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.041337 } ], "others_margin": 0.085467 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.2216484397649765, "model_output": 0.2216, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0416 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7429 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1757 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0388 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0377 } ], "others": 0.1527, "total": 2.1172, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.74289 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.175707 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.047897 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038839 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037658 } ], "others_margin": 0.152675 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8917694091796875, "model_output": 6.8918, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 6.8918, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.039494 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02682 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022466 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019041 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.016454 } ], "others_margin": -0.010717 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0054, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4166, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.1193, "assist_rate": 0.1193, "expected_goals": 0.1677, "goals": 0.2228, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "shots_on_target": 0.6818, "total_shots": 2.1287, "rating": 6.8918, "minutes": 82.9, "total_pass": 27.1272, "accurate_pass": 20.347, "duels_won": 4.9179, "total_long_balls": 3.2656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8787, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4683, "crosses_total": 2.1287, "crosses_accurate": 0.6672, "touches": 46.8139, "possession_lost": 15.9514, "dispossessed": 1.8319, "duels_lost": 6.4096, "aerial_won": 0.7275, "aerial_lost": 0.8043, "interceptions": 0.4774, "tackles_won": 0.7847, "tackles": 1.1087, "clearances": 0.4643, "total_contest": 4.0463, "won_contest": 1.998, "challenges_lost": 0.9647, "fouls": 0.7672, "fouls_drawn": 1.0837, "blocks": 0.0798, "big_chances_created": 0.3016, "big_chances_missed": 0.3274, "xgot": 0.1444, "ball_carries": 13.9152, "total_progression": 76.4865, "progressive_carries": 2.0063, "shots_off_target": 1.4469 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0054, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4166, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "expected_goals": 0.1677, "goals": 0.2202, "goal_rate": 0.2202, "shots_on_target": 0.6738, "total_shots": 2.116, "rating": 6.8918, "minutes": 82.9, "total_pass": 27.1272, "accurate_pass": 20.347, "duels_won": 4.9179, "total_long_balls": 3.2656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4383, 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"after": 2.116 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7672, "after": 0.7582 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6818, "after": 0.6738 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4166, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "expected_goals": 0.1677, "goals": 0.2202, "goal_rate": 0.2202, "shots_on_target": 0.6738, "total_shots": 2.1207, "rating": 6.8918, "minutes": 82.9, "total_pass": 27.1272, "accurate_pass": 20.347, "duels_won": 4.9179, "total_long_balls": 3.2656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8787, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4683, "crosses_total": 2.1317, "crosses_accurate": 0.6672, "touches": 46.8139, "possession_lost": 15.9514, "dispossessed": 1.8319, "duels_lost": 6.4096, "aerial_won": 0.7275, "aerial_lost": 0.8043, "interceptions": 0.4758, 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8787, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4683, "crosses_total": 2.1317, "crosses_accurate": 0.6672, "touches": 46.8139, "possession_lost": 15.9514, "dispossessed": 1.8319, "duels_lost": 6.4096, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8043, "interceptions": 0.4758, "tackles_won": 0.7835, "tackles": 1.1087, "clearances": 0.4643, "total_contest": 4.0463, "won_contest": 1.998, "challenges_lost": 0.9647, "fouls": 0.7582, "fouls_drawn": 1.083, "blocks": 0.0798, "big_chances_created": 0.3016, "big_chances_missed": 0.359, "xgot": 0.1583, "ball_carries": 13.9152, "total_progression": 76.4865, "progressive_carries": 2.0063, "shots_off_target": 1.5865, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0965, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.546, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sergi Cardona", "opponent_faced": "Sergi Cardona", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergi Cardona", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.546, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0965, "skill_edge": 0.0616, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.6858, "defender_skill": 0.5489, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sergi Cardona", "market_value": 8600000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5489 } ], "xg_override": 0.1839 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7275, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1207, "after": 2.3253 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4469, "after": 1.5865 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6738, "after": 0.7388 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3274, "after": 0.359 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2202, "after": 0.2414 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1677, "after": 0.1839 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1444, "after": 0.1583 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4166, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1839, "goal_rate": 0.2414, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7388, "total_shots": 2.3253, "rating": 6.8918, "minutes": 82.9, "total_pass": 27.1272, "accurate_pass": 20.347, "duels_won": 4.9179, "total_long_balls": 3.2656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8787, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4683, "crosses_total": 2.1317, "crosses_accurate": 0.6672, "touches": 46.8139, "possession_lost": 15.9514, "dispossessed": 1.8319, "duels_lost": 6.4096, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8043, "interceptions": 0.4758, "tackles_won": 0.7835, "tackles": 1.1087, "clearances": 0.4643, "total_contest": 4.0463, "won_contest": 1.998, "challenges_lost": 0.9647, "fouls": 0.7582, "fouls_drawn": 1.083, "blocks": 0.0798, "big_chances_created": 0.3016, "big_chances_missed": 0.359, "xgot": 0.1583, "ball_carries": 13.9152, "total_progression": 76.4865, "progressive_carries": 2.0063, "shots_off_target": 1.5865, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0965, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.546, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sergi Cardona", "opponent_faced": "Sergi Cardona", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4166, "expected_assists": 0.1193, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1871, "goal_rate": 0.2414, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7388, "total_shots": 2.3253, "rating": 6.8918, "minutes": 82.9, "total_pass": 27.1272, "accurate_pass": 20.347, "duels_won": 4.9179, "total_long_balls": 3.2656, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4383, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2986, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8787, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4683, "crosses_total": 2.1317, "crosses_accurate": 0.6672, "touches": 46.8139, "possession_lost": 15.9514, "dispossessed": 1.8319, "duels_lost": 6.4096, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.8043, "interceptions": 0.4758, "tackles_won": 0.7835, "tackles": 1.1087, "clearances": 0.4643, "total_contest": 4.0463, "won_contest": 1.998, "challenges_lost": 0.9647, "fouls": 0.7582, "fouls_drawn": 1.083, "blocks": 0.0798, "big_chances_created": 0.3016, "big_chances_missed": 0.359, "xgot": 0.1611, "ball_carries": 13.9152, "total_progression": 76.4865, "progressive_carries": 2.0063, "shots_off_target": 1.5865, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0965, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.546, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sergi Cardona", "opponent_faced": "Sergi Cardona", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2458, "creation_factor": 1.003 }, "params": { 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"importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1874 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0567 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0396 } ], "others": -0.0394, "total": 0.7356, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24329 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.069902 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.06774 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049773 } ], "others_margin": -0.052201 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.827095031738281, "model_output": 6.8271, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": 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"history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9952, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1868, "goals": 0.1965, "goal_rate": 0.1965, "shots_on_target": 0.6779, "total_shots": 1.5953, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "key_pass": 0.7321, "rating": 6.8271, "minutes": 61.57, "total_pass": 15.8829, "accurate_pass": 11.3184, "duels_won": 2.834, "total_long_balls": 2.6939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4729, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2445, "crosses_total": 0.7902, "crosses_accurate": 0.4562, "touches": 28.8479, "possession_lost": 9.0102, "dispossessed": 1.1123, "duels_lost": 5.3687, "aerial_lost": 0.4623, "total_contest": 2.6134, "won_contest": 0.8304, "ball_recovery": 2.2564, "challenges_lost": 0.4562, "fouls": 1.5549, "fouls_drawn": 1.1732, "assists": 0.1401, "assist_rate": 0.1401, "interceptions": 0.8013, 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"step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1868, "goals": 0.1963, "goal_rate": 0.1963, "shots_on_target": 0.6772, "total_shots": 1.6007, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "key_pass": 0.7321, "rating": 6.8271, "minutes": 61.57, "total_pass": 15.8829, "accurate_pass": 11.3184, "duels_won": 2.834, "total_long_balls": 2.6939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4729, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2445, "crosses_total": 0.7965, "crosses_accurate": 0.4562, "touches": 28.8479, "possession_lost": 9.0102, "dispossessed": 1.1123, "duels_lost": 5.3687, "aerial_lost": 0.4623, "total_contest": 2.6134, "won_contest": 0.8304, "ball_recovery": 2.2564, "challenges_lost": 0.4562, "fouls": 1.5533, "fouls_drawn": 1.172, "assists": 0.14, "assist_rate": 0.14, "interceptions": 0.8005, "tackles_won": 0.3337, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.4964, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3681, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8007, "skill_edge": -0.1156, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6943, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "market_value": 13800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.615 } ], "xg_override": 0.1496 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6007, "after": 1.2817 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9174, "after": 0.7346 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6772, "after": 0.5422 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2281, "after": 0.1826 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2092, "after": 0.1675 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1963, "after": 0.1572 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1868, "after": 0.1496 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1496, "goal_rate": 0.1572, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5422, "total_shots": 1.2817, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "key_pass": 0.7321, "rating": 6.8271, "minutes": 61.57, "total_pass": 15.8829, "accurate_pass": 11.3184, "duels_won": 2.834, "total_long_balls": 2.6939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4729, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2445, "crosses_total": 0.7965, "crosses_accurate": 0.4562, "touches": 28.8479, "possession_lost": 9.0102, "dispossessed": 1.1123, "duels_lost": 5.3687, "aerial_lost": 0.4623, "total_contest": 2.6134, "won_contest": 0.8304, "ball_recovery": 2.2564, "challenges_lost": 0.4562, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.02 } ], "others": -0.0011, "total": 0.193, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.22339 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.202566 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128938 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.123076 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.098 } ], "others_margin": -0.006097 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6570029258728027, "model_output": 0.657, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2206 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1148 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0479 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0399 } ], "others": -0.0997, "total": 0.657, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220551 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114767 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.047931 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046601 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.039881 } ], "others_margin": -0.099695 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0318803787231445, "model_output": 7.0319, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"predicted": 0.5181371569633484, "model_output": 0.5181, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1173 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.038 } ], "others": -0.216, "total": 0.5181, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.245022 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057672 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.039409 }, { "name": 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}, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01613 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.013829 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012843 } ], "others_margin": -0.024277 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5139, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.0456, "assist_rate": 0.0456, "expected_goals": 0.0295, "goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0418, "shots_on_target": 0.114, "total_shots": 0.5179, "rating": 6.8837, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 49.8719, "accurate_pass": 44.1784, "duels_won": 2.5129, "total_long_balls": 7.4742, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1808, "total_own_half_passes": 29.3697, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.4251, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.7532, "crosses_total": 0.2456, "crosses_accurate": 0.0248, "touches": 61.7314, "possession_lost": 7.0357, "dispossessed": 0.296, "duels_lost": 2.945, "aerial_won": 0.4131, "aerial_lost": 0.6548, "interceptions": 1.0574, "tackles_won": 0.8799, "tackles": 1.7831, "clearances": 5.3064, "total_contest": 0.1836, "won_contest": 0.0528, "challenges_lost": 0.6486, "fouls": 1.215, "fouls_drawn": 0.3425, "blocks": 0.3919, "big_chances_created": 0.3062, "big_chances_missed": 0.0158, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 15.6917, "total_progression": 45.5886, "progressive_carries": 0.4157, "shots_off_target": 0.4039 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7300000, "quality_factor": 0.4903, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5139, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.0456, "assist_rate": 0.0456, "expected_goals": 0.0295, "goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0418, "shots_on_target": 0.114, "total_shots": 0.5179, "rating": 6.8837, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 49.8719, "accurate_pass": 44.1784, "duels_won": 2.5129, "total_long_balls": 7.4742, 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"opponent_faced": "Pape Gueye", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.132, "creation_factor": 1.1616 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.899, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9982, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8515, "tackles": 1.8802, "tackles_won": 1.2329, "clearances": 2.3893, "aerial_won": 0.7973, "total_shots": 0.5702, "rating": 6.7737, "minutes": 82.24, "total_pass": 31.0931, "accurate_pass": 28.3659, "duels_won": 3.5108, "total_long_balls": 1.6122, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7685, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0006, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3653, "crosses_total": 2.2524, "crosses_accurate": 0.7144, "touches": 50.444, "possession_lost": 5.8851, "dispossessed": 0.1298, "duels_lost": 2.7084, "aerial_lost": 0.6785, "total_contest": 0.5856, "won_contest": 0.4803, "ball_recovery": 3.7421, "challenges_lost": 0.8754, "fouls": 0.923, "fouls_drawn": 0.6159, "blocks": 0.2132, "goals": 0.0063, 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integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8481, "tackles": 1.8802, "tackles_won": 1.228, "clearances": 2.3893, "aerial_won": 0.7973, "total_shots": 0.5693, "rating": 6.7737, "minutes": 82.24, "total_pass": 31.0931, "accurate_pass": 28.3659, "duels_won": 3.5108, "total_long_balls": 1.6122, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7685, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0569, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0006, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3653, "crosses_total": 2.248, "crosses_accurate": 0.7144, "touches": 50.444, "possession_lost": 5.8851, "dispossessed": 0.1298, "duels_lost": 2.7084, "aerial_lost": 0.6785, "total_contest": 0.5856, "won_contest": 0.4803, "ball_recovery": 3.7421, "challenges_lost": 0.8754, "fouls": 0.9239, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "blocks": 0.2132, "goal_rate": 0.0063, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0368, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0468, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "shots_on_target": 0.1947, 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{ "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.101272 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048747 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015783 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.013622 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.010755 } ], "others_margin": -0.031461 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7505412101745605, "model_output": 6.7505, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 6.7505, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016369 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.015369 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.014341 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011205 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.009028 } ], "others_margin": -0.013996 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"model_output": 0.5078, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0624 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0356, "total": 0.5078, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062433 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.02012 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.010004 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009889 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011451 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009402 } ], "others_margin": 0.022548 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.514)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1654, "tackles": 1.3379, "tackles_won": 0.8148, "clearances": 6.1634, "aerial_won": 2.118, "total_shots": 0.508, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 81.39, "total_pass": 41.0107, "accurate_pass": 35.546, "duels_won": 4.6967, "total_long_balls": 5.2053, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8265, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1681, "crosses_total": 0.199, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.544, "possession_lost": 6.8724, "dispossessed": 0.0543, "duels_lost": 3.1464, "aerial_lost": 1.4127, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1005, "ball_recovery": 2.6536, "challenges_lost": 0.3032, "fouls": 1.1948, "fouls_drawn": 0.6992, "blocks": 0.3405, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "shots_on_target": 0.0022, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 14.8737, "total_progression": 45.1177, "progressive_carries": 0.3649, "key_pass": 0.0036, "shots_off_target": 0.5058 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9300000, "quality_factor": 0.5142, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0151)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 1.3379, "tackles_won": 0.8253, "clearances": 6.1634, "aerial_won": 2.118, "total_shots": 0.514, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 81.39, "total_pass": 41.0107, "accurate_pass": 35.546, "duels_won": 4.6967, "total_long_balls": 5.2053, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8265, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1681, "crosses_total": 0.196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.544, "possession_lost": 6.8724, "dispossessed": 0.0543, "duels_lost": 3.1464, "aerial_lost": 1.4127, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1005, "ball_recovery": 2.6536, "challenges_lost": 0.3032, "fouls": 1.1995, "fouls_drawn": 0.7023, "blocks": 0.3405, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0281, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "shots_on_target": 0.0022, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0005, "ball_carries": 14.8737, "total_progression": 45.1177, "progressive_carries": 0.3649, "key_pass": 0.0036, "shots_off_target": 0.5058 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0151, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9043, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1654, "after": 1.1523 }, { 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"defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ayoze Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 1.3379, "tackles_won": 0.8253, "clearances": 6.1634, "aerial_won": 2.118, "total_shots": 0.514, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 81.39, "total_pass": 41.0107, "accurate_pass": 35.546, "duels_won": 4.6967, "total_long_balls": 5.2053, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8265, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1681, "crosses_total": 0.196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.544, "possession_lost": 6.8724, "dispossessed": 0.0543, "duels_lost": 3.1464, 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"params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 1.3379, "tackles_won": 0.8253, "clearances": 6.1634, "aerial_won": 2.118, "total_shots": 0.514, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 81.39, "total_pass": 41.0107, "accurate_pass": 35.546, "duels_won": 4.6967, "total_long_balls": 5.2053, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8265, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1681, "crosses_total": 0.196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.544, "possession_lost": 6.8724, "dispossessed": 0.0543, "duels_lost": 3.1464, "aerial_lost": 1.4127, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1005, "ball_recovery": 2.6536, 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0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 1.3379, "tackles_won": 0.8253, "clearances": 6.1634, "aerial_won": 2.118, "total_shots": 0.514, "rating": 6.8342, "minutes": 81.39, "total_pass": 41.0107, "accurate_pass": 35.546, "duels_won": 4.6967, "total_long_balls": 5.2053, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8265, "total_own_half_passes": 28.1182, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3778, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8925, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1681, "crosses_total": 0.196, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.544, "possession_lost": 6.8724, "dispossessed": 0.0543, "duels_lost": 3.1464, "aerial_lost": 1.4127, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1005, "ball_recovery": 2.6536, "challenges_lost": 0.3032, "fouls": 1.1995, "fouls_drawn": 0.7023, "blocks": 0.3405, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "shots_on_target": 0.0022, 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0.014416 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.013112 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009674 } ], "others_margin": -0.018803 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.788209915161133, "model_output": 6.7882, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0426, "total": 6.7882, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014343 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.014018 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013334 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012015 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.010814 } ], "others_margin": -0.042667 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1297, "tackles": 2.0025, "tackles_won": 1.3534, "clearances": 3.0015, "aerial_won": 0.985, "total_shots": 0.5536, "rating": 6.7882, "minutes": 83.24, "total_pass": 33.6576, "accurate_pass": 25.5699, "duels_won": 4.8446, "total_long_balls": 5.8848, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7003, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6436, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9263, "crosses_total": 2.8595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5919, "touches": 57.6951, "possession_lost": 14.0093, "dispossessed": 0.315, "duels_lost": 3.8668, "aerial_lost": 0.9113, "total_contest": 2.0598, "won_contest": 1.3044, "ball_recovery": 4.2478, "challenges_lost": 1.0691, "fouls": 0.8161, "fouls_drawn": 0.7068, "blocks": 0.4718, "goals": 0.0012, "goal_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0.0747, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "shots_on_target": 0.0932, "big_chances_created": 0.1325, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.2064, "total_progression": 32.457, "progressive_carries": 0.6305, "key_pass": 0.7483, "shots_off_target": 0.4604 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1298, "tackles": 2.0025, "tackles_won": 1.3526, "clearances": 3.0015, "aerial_won": 0.985, "total_shots": 0.5514, "rating": 6.7882, "minutes": 83.24, "total_pass": 33.6576, "accurate_pass": 25.5699, "duels_won": 4.8446, "total_long_balls": 5.8848, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7003, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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2.8595, "after": 2.871 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1298, "tackles": 2.0025, "tackles_won": 1.3526, "clearances": 3.0015, "aerial_won": 0.985, "total_shots": 0.5532, "rating": 6.7882, "minutes": 83.24, "total_pass": 33.6576, "accurate_pass": 25.5699, "duels_won": 4.8446, "total_long_balls": 5.8848, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7003, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6436, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9263, "crosses_total": 2.871, "crosses_accurate": 0.5919, "touches": 57.6951, "possession_lost": 14.0093, "dispossessed": 0.315, "duels_lost": 3.8668, "aerial_lost": 0.9113, "total_contest": 2.0598, "won_contest": 1.3044, "ball_recovery": 4.2478, "challenges_lost": 1.0691, "fouls": 0.8129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7086, "blocks": 0.4718, "goals": 0.0012, "goal_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0.0744, "assist_rate": 0.0744, 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14.0093, "dispossessed": 0.315, "duels_lost": 3.8668, "aerial_lost": 0.9113, "total_contest": 2.0598, "won_contest": 1.3044, "ball_recovery": 4.2478, "challenges_lost": 1.0691, "fouls": 0.8129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7086, "blocks": 0.4718, "goals": 0.0012, "goal_rate": 0.0012, "assists": 0.0744, "assist_rate": 0.0744, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "big_chances_created": 0.1325, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.2064, "total_progression": 32.457, "progressive_carries": 0.6305, "key_pass": 0.7483, "shots_off_target": 0.4604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452, "opponent_faced": "Santi Comesaña", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Santi Comesaña", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1298, "tackles": 2.0025, "tackles_won": 1.3526, "clearances": 3.0015, "aerial_won": 0.985, "total_shots": 0.5532, "rating": 6.7882, "minutes": 83.24, "total_pass": 33.6576, "accurate_pass": 25.5699, "duels_won": 4.8446, "total_long_balls": 5.8848, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7003, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6436, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9263, "crosses_total": 2.871, "crosses_accurate": 0.5919, "touches": 57.6951, "possession_lost": 14.0093, "dispossessed": 0.315, "duels_lost": 3.8668, "aerial_lost": 0.9113, "total_contest": 2.0598, "won_contest": 1.3044, "ball_recovery": 4.2478, "challenges_lost": 1.0691, "fouls": 0.8129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7086, "blocks": 0.4718, "goal_rate": 0.0012, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0744, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0199, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "shots_on_target": 0.0928, "big_chances_created": 0.1325, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.2064, "total_progression": 32.457, "progressive_carries": 0.6305, "key_pass": 0.7483, "shots_off_target": 0.4604, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452, "opponent_faced": "Santi Comesaña", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1298, "tackles": 2.0025, "tackles_won": 1.3526, "clearances": 3.0015, "aerial_won": 0.985, "total_shots": 0.5532, "rating": 6.7882, "minutes": 83.24, "total_pass": 33.6576, "accurate_pass": 25.5699, "duels_won": 4.8446, "total_long_balls": 5.8848, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7003, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1889, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6436, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.4687, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9263, "crosses_total": 2.871, "crosses_accurate": 0.5919, "touches": 57.6951, "possession_lost": 14.0093, "dispossessed": 0.315, "duels_lost": 3.8668, "aerial_lost": 0.9113, "total_contest": 2.0598, "won_contest": 1.3044, "ball_recovery": 4.2478, "challenges_lost": 1.0691, "fouls": 0.8129, "fouls_drawn": 0.7086, "blocks": 0.4718, "goal_rate": 0.0012, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0744, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "expected_assists": 0.0645, 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"importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.081 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2756 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0697 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0216 } ], "others": -0.0589, "total": 0.896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.935438 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.229436 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.067458 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.022554 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.022337 } ], "others_margin": -0.063712 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2778420150279999, "model_output": 0.2778, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7965 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1699 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0575 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0443, "total": 0.2778, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.855678 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.340546 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.147575 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.086911 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.027863 } ], "others_margin": -0.147946 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.15110212564468384, "model_output": 0.1511, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2428 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0474, "total": 0.1511, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.242807 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023225 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009784 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007474 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.006857 } ], "others_margin": -0.047404 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696659564971924, "model_output": 6.6967, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0307, "total": 6.6967, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018618 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014028 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013396 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008834 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.008217 } ], "others_margin": -0.030631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2609, "tackles": 0.599, "tackles_won": 0.4204, "clearances": 0.8968, "aerial_won": 0.2781, "total_shots": 0.1512, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 5.9779, "accurate_pass": 3.9701, "duels_won": 1.0409, "total_long_balls": 1.4738, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1929, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3048, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6766, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2935, "crosses_total": 0.2269, "crosses_accurate": 0.2269, "touches": 9.3016, "possession_lost": 3.3427, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9197, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4198, "challenges_lost": 0.2669, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.507, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.541, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1512 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10800000, "quality_factor": 0.5318, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2605, "tackles": 0.599, "tackles_won": 0.4193, "clearances": 0.8968, "aerial_won": 0.2781, "total_shots": 0.1505, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 12.92, "total_pass": 5.9779, "accurate_pass": 3.9701, "duels_won": 1.0409, "total_long_balls": 1.4738, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1929, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3048, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6766, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.6731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.2935, "crosses_total": 0.2273, "crosses_accurate": 0.2269, "touches": 9.3016, "possession_lost": 3.3427, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9197, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4198, "challenges_lost": 0.2669, "fouls": 0.65, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.541, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1512 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1436, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.9 to 13.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2812, "tackles": 0.6466, "tackles_won": 0.4526, "clearances": 0.968, "aerial_won": 0.3002, "total_shots": 0.1632, "rating": 6.6967, "minutes": 13.95, "total_pass": 6.4526, "accurate_pass": 4.2854, "duels_won": 1.1236, "total_long_balls": 1.5908, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2082, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8891, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8854, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3962, "crosses_total": 0.2453, "crosses_accurate": 0.2449, "touches": 10.0402, "possession_lost": 3.6081, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9927, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4531, "challenges_lost": 0.2669, "fouls": 0.7016, "fouls_drawn": 0.5449, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.584, "total_progression": 0.0, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0733 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 6.6829, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.073296 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038683 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029368 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.010733 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.010214 } ], "others_margin": -0.010834 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3597, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0393, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "shots_on_target": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.5994, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 15.2144, "accurate_pass": 12.478, "duels_won": 0.526, "total_long_balls": 0.8229, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3522, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "crosses_total": 0.2239, "crosses_accurate": 0.0746, "touches": 18.8159, "possession_lost": 3.8427, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6376, "aerial_won": 0.256, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2066, "tackles": 0.2066, "clearances": 0.4295, "total_contest": 0.3948, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0635, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1114, "total_progression": 10.6373, "progressive_carries": 0.1084, "shots_off_target": 0.3944 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.7 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 22.7, "minutes_scale": 1.0034, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.99, "creation_factor": 1.1717 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.899, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0603, "after": 0.0328 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0263, "after": 0.0143 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.99, "creation_factor": 1.1717, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3214, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0318, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.99, "creation_factor": 1.1717, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "scorer_weight": 0.0325, "squad_weight_total": 0.9718, "weight_share": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 0.99, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, 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0.0261, "creation_factor": 1.1717, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "player_id": 857482, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assist_rate": 0.0699, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7086, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 5.8023, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, 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}, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.036918 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008695 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.005006 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.004197 } ], "others_margin": -0.015511 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9987, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4947, "expected_assists": 0.045, "assists": 0.0539, "assist_rate": 0.0539, "expected_goals": 0.0224, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.1051, "total_shots": 0.3076, "rating": 6.7086, "minutes": 22.68, "total_pass": 11.0701, "accurate_pass": 9.1018, "duels_won": 1.2453, "total_long_balls": 0.8661, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9277, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1741, "crosses_total": 1.5806, "crosses_accurate": 0.7234, "touches": 17.1429, "possession_lost": 4.4234, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.2234, "aerial_won": 0.2325, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1687, "tackles": 0.6004, "clearances": 0.6792, 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0.2339 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.7 to 29.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6489, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assists": 0.0699, "assist_rate": 0.0699, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "goals": 0.0376, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "shots_on_target": 0.1398, "total_shots": 0.4095, "rating": 6.7086, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 14.521, "accurate_pass": 11.9391, "duels_won": 1.6335, "total_long_balls": 1.1361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5696, "total_own_half_passes": 4.518, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8403, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0987, "crosses_total": 2.0685, "crosses_accurate": 0.9489, "touches": 22.4868, "possession_lost": 5.8023, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.6048, "aerial_won": 0.305, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "interceptions": 0.0035, "tackles_won": 0.2239, "tackles": 0.7876, "clearances": 0.8909, "total_contest": 0.4392, "won_contest": 0.2445, 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0.6489, "expected_assists": 0.059, "assist_rate": 0.0699, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0376, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1398, "total_shots": 0.4095, "rating": 6.7086, "minutes": 29.75, "total_pass": 14.521, "accurate_pass": 11.9391, "duels_won": 1.6335, "total_long_balls": 1.1361, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5696, "total_own_half_passes": 4.518, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8403, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.003, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0987, "crosses_total": 2.0685, "crosses_accurate": 0.9489, "touches": 22.4868, "possession_lost": 5.8023, "dispossessed": 0.4523, "duels_lost": 1.6048, "aerial_won": 0.305, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "interceptions": 0.0035, "tackles_won": 0.2239, "tackles": 0.7876, "clearances": 0.8909, "total_contest": 0.4392, "won_contest": 0.2445, "challenges_lost": 0.1218, "fouls": 0.2595, "fouls_drawn": 0.3068, "blocks": 0.1196, "big_chances_created": 0.5535, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1293, 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"player_id": 909119, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 11600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, 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"away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3599, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1376, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, 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"97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.215, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3220, "combined_rank_score": 1167.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 776.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6389, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5769, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 3215 }, { "player_name": "Eljif Elmas", "ranking": 3216 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking": 3218 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chris Führich", "ranking": 3221 }, { "player_name": "Lucien Agoumé", "ranking": 3222 }, { "player_name": "Maarten Vandevoordt", "ranking": 3223 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Vasilj", "ranking": 3224 }, { "player_name": "Wouter Burger", "ranking": 3225 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 45, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", 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"contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0071, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.501829 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.281015 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.208107 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.139834 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.099826 } ], "others_margin": -0.974914 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2336968630552292, "model_output": 0.2337, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2562 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0942, "total": 0.2337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.472517 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085208 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.069169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053969 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.049751 } ], "others_margin": -0.33813 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.576937675476074, "model_output": 6.5769, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0844, "total": 6.5769, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.04783 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024655 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013603 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010897 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009998 } ], "others_margin": -0.084358 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.12, "goals": 0.1468, "goal_rate": 0.1468, "shots_on_target": 0.3044, "total_shots": 0.7016, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.234, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 4.9768, "accurate_pass": 3.9157, "duels_won": 1.1613, "total_long_balls": 0.1857, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1857, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0159, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0502, "crosses_total": 0.0828, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4516, "possession_lost": 2.3305, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 1.9052, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0118, "ball_recovery": 0.1988, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.3584, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0704, "tackles_won": 0.1533, "tackles": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.2343, "blocks": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0448, "big_chances_missed": 0.2732, "xgot": 0.0663, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1652, "total_progression": 2.6611, "progressive_carries": 0.068, "shots_off_target": 0.3972 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.12, "goals": 0.1462, "goal_rate": 0.1462, "shots_on_target": 0.3031, "total_shots": 0.6986, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.234, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 4.9768, "accurate_pass": 3.9157, "duels_won": 1.1613, "total_long_balls": 0.1857, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1857, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0159, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0502, "crosses_total": 0.0824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4516, "possession_lost": 2.3305, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 1.9052, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0118, "ball_recovery": 0.1988, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3223, "fouls_drawn": 0.3589, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0711, "tackles_won": 0.1526, "tackles": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.2343, "blocks": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0448, "big_chances_missed": 0.2732, "xgot": 0.0663, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1652, "total_progression": 2.6611, "progressive_carries": 0.068, "shots_off_target": 0.3972 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.234, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1286, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0143, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.175, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.899, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0706, "after": 0.0412 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.029 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0143, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3167, "fifa_rank": 1575.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0143, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0398, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0398, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "scorer_weight": 0.0484, "squad_weight_total": 0.9718, "weight_share": 0.0498, "finishing_factor": 1.175, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0143, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0398, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0283, "finishing_factor": 1.175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0283, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0232, "squad_weight_total": 0.6412, "weight_share": 0.0362, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.573, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Hugo Duro": { "player_id": 909119, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 11600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0735, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0046, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8681, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421074, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1361, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421064, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5497, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3599, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1376, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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"97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421049, "match_date": "2026-08-25", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.215, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3220, "combined_rank_score": 1167.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 776.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6389, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.5769, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 3215 }, { "player_name": "Eljif Elmas", "ranking": 3216 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking": 3218 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chris Führich", "ranking": 3221 }, { "player_name": "Lucien Agoumé", "ranking": 3222 }, { "player_name": "Maarten Vandevoordt", "ranking": 3223 }, { "player_name": "Nikola 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"expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0942, "total": 0.2337, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.472517 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085208 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.069169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053969 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.049751 } ], "others_margin": -0.33813 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.576937675476074, "model_output": 6.5769, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0844, "total": 6.5769, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.04783 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024655 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013603 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010897 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009998 } ], "others_margin": -0.084358 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.12, "goals": 0.1468, "goal_rate": 0.1468, "shots_on_target": 0.3044, "total_shots": 0.7016, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.234, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 4.9768, "accurate_pass": 3.9157, "duels_won": 1.1613, "total_long_balls": 0.1857, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1857, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0159, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0502, "crosses_total": 0.0828, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4516, "possession_lost": 2.3305, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 1.9052, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0118, "ball_recovery": 0.1988, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.3584, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0704, "tackles_won": 0.1533, "tackles": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.2343, "blocks": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0448, "big_chances_missed": 0.2732, "xgot": 0.0663, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1652, "total_progression": 2.6611, "progressive_carries": 0.068, "shots_off_target": 0.3972 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.12, "goals": 0.1462, "goal_rate": 0.1462, "shots_on_target": 0.3031, "total_shots": 0.6986, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "key_pass": 0.234, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 21.06, "total_pass": 4.9768, "accurate_pass": 3.9157, "duels_won": 1.1613, "total_long_balls": 0.1857, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1857, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0159, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0502, "crosses_total": 0.0824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4516, "possession_lost": 2.3305, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 1.9052, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0118, "ball_recovery": 0.1988, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3223, "fouls_drawn": 0.3589, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0711, "tackles_won": 0.1526, "tackles": 0.1533, "clearances": 0.2343, "blocks": 0.1541, "big_chances_created": 0.0448, "big_chances_missed": 0.2732, "xgot": 0.0663, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1652, "total_progression": 2.6611, "progressive_carries": 0.068, "shots_off_target": 0.3972 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.234, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Valencia" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1286, "goals": 0.1567, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "shots_on_target": 0.3248, "total_shots": 0.7505, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.2508, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.3336, "accurate_pass": 4.1965, "duels_won": 1.2446, "total_long_balls": 0.199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1972, "crosses_total": 0.0883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0576, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.0418, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2182, "won_contest": 0.0126, "ball_recovery": 0.2131, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3454, "fouls_drawn": 0.3846, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0762, "tackles_won": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.1643, "clearances": 0.2511, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.048, "big_chances_missed": 0.2928, "xgot": 0.0711, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2487, "total_progression": 2.8519, "progressive_carries": 0.0729, "shots_off_target": 0.4257, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.57, "projection_minutes": 21.06, "minutes_scale": 1.0717, "appearance_probability": 0.599 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1286, "goals": 0.1567, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "shots_on_target": 0.3248, "total_shots": 0.7505, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.2508, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.3336, "accurate_pass": 4.1965, "duels_won": 1.2446, "total_long_balls": 0.199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1972, "crosses_total": 0.0883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0576, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.0418, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2182, "won_contest": 0.0126, "ball_recovery": 0.2131, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3454, "fouls_drawn": 0.3846, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0762, "tackles_won": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.1643, "clearances": 0.2511, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.048, "big_chances_missed": 0.2928, "xgot": 0.0711, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2487, "total_progression": 2.8519, "progressive_carries": 0.0729, "shots_off_target": 0.4257, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3248, "total_shots": 0.7505, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "key_pass": 0.2508, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.3336, "accurate_pass": 4.1965, "duels_won": 1.2446, "total_long_balls": 0.199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1972, "crosses_total": 0.0883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0576, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.0418, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2182, "won_contest": 0.0126, "ball_recovery": 0.2131, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3454, "fouls_drawn": 0.3846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0762, "tackles_won": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.1643, "clearances": 0.2511, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.048, "big_chances_missed": 0.2928, "xgot": 0.0711, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2487, "total_progression": 2.8519, "progressive_carries": 0.0729, "shots_off_target": 0.4257, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3248, "total_shots": 0.7505, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "key_pass": 0.2508, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.3336, "accurate_pass": 4.1965, "duels_won": 1.2446, "total_long_balls": 0.199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1972, "crosses_total": 0.0883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0576, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.0418, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2182, "won_contest": 0.0126, "ball_recovery": 0.2131, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3454, "fouls_drawn": 0.3846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0762, "tackles_won": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.1643, "clearances": 0.2511, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.048, "big_chances_missed": 0.2928, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2487, "total_progression": 2.8519, "progressive_carries": 0.0729, "shots_off_target": 0.4257, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8681 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.899, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.599 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1286, "after": 0.0784 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3248, "total_shots": 0.7505, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "key_pass": 0.2508, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.3336, "accurate_pass": 4.1965, "duels_won": 1.2446, "total_long_balls": 0.199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1972, "crosses_total": 0.0883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0576, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.0418, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2182, "won_contest": 0.0126, "ball_recovery": 0.2131, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3454, "fouls_drawn": 0.3846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0762, "tackles_won": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.1643, "clearances": 0.2511, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.048, "big_chances_missed": 0.2928, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2487, "total_progression": 2.8519, "progressive_carries": 0.0729, "shots_off_target": 0.4257, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8681, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3220, "fifa_rank": 1559.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3248, "total_shots": 0.7505, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "key_pass": 0.2508, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.3336, "accurate_pass": 4.1965, "duels_won": 1.2446, "total_long_balls": 0.199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1972, "crosses_total": 0.0883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0576, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.0418, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2182, "won_contest": 0.0126, "ball_recovery": 0.2131, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3454, "fouls_drawn": 0.3846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0762, "tackles_won": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.1643, "clearances": 0.2511, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.048, "big_chances_missed": 0.2928, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2487, "total_progression": 2.8519, "progressive_carries": 0.0729, "shots_off_target": 0.4257, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0735, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8681, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "scorer_weight": 0.0907, "squad_weight_total": 0.9718, "weight_share": 0.0934, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "appearance_weight": 0.599, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0784, "goal_rate": 0.1567, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3248, "total_shots": 0.7505, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "key_pass": 0.2508, "rating": 6.5769, "minutes": 22.57, "total_pass": 5.3336, "accurate_pass": 4.1965, "duels_won": 1.2446, "total_long_balls": 0.199, "accurate_long_balls": 0.199, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1972, "crosses_total": 0.0883, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0576, "possession_lost": 2.4976, "dispossessed": 0.3243, "duels_lost": 2.0418, "aerial_lost": 0.9836, "total_contest": 0.2182, "won_contest": 0.0126, "ball_recovery": 0.2131, "challenges_lost": 0.1657, "fouls": 0.3454, "fouls_drawn": 0.3846, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0762, "tackles_won": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.1643, "clearances": 0.2511, "blocks": 0.1651, "big_chances_created": 0.048, "big_chances_missed": 0.2928, "xgot": 0.0433, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2487, "total_progression": 2.8519, "progressive_carries": 0.0729, "shots_off_target": 0.4257, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.599, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.57, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0735, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0046, "finishing_factor": 1.1573, "creation_factor": 0.8681, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0046, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.004, "squad_weight_total": 0.6412, "weight_share": 0.0062, "creation_factor": 0.8681, "appearance_weight": 0.599, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Diego López": { "player_id": 998950, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 172, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0143, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 21, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0005, quality 0.518)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0582, "goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.1942, "total_shots": 0.5941, "expected_assists": 0.041, "key_pass": 0.4444, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 21.11, "total_pass": 8.577, "accurate_pass": 7.1017, "duels_won": 1.4834, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0911, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3728, "crosses_total": 1.2057, "crosses_accurate": 0.5379, "touches": 15.3972, "possession_lost": 3.9523, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 1.9326, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.7507, "won_contest": 0.3836, "ball_recovery": 1.4292, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.0843, "fouls_drawn": 0.1989, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1673, "tackles_won": 0.5233, "tackles": 0.6106, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.047, "big_chances_missed": 0.1346, "xgot": 0.0203, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.9657, "total_progression": 17.3104, "progressive_carries": 0.7642, "shots_off_target": 0.3999 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9600000, "quality_factor": 0.5177, "boost_factor": 1.0005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0917, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.61, "projection_minutes": 21.11, "minutes_scale": 1.2132, "appearance_probability": 0.573 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goals": 0.0917, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.0497, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0246, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0143, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.175, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.899, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.573 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0706, "after": 0.0412 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.029 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 0.1633, "xgot": 0.0143, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5979, "total_progression": 21.0007, "progressive_carries": 0.9271, "shots_off_target": 0.4852, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.175, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3167, "fifa_rank": 1575.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0917, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2356, "total_shots": 0.7208, "expected_assists": 0.029, "key_pass": 0.5391, "rating": 6.6745, "minutes": 25.61, "total_pass": 10.4055, "accurate_pass": 8.6157, "duels_won": 1.7996, "total_long_balls": 0.1576, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1105, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5182, "crosses_total": 1.4627, "crosses_accurate": 0.6526, "touches": 18.6796, "possession_lost": 4.7949, "dispossessed": 0.1958, "duels_lost": 2.3446, "aerial_lost": 0.6593, "total_contest": 0.9107, "won_contest": 0.4654, "ball_recovery": 1.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.6261, "fouls": 0.1023, "fouls_drawn": 0.2413, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.203, "tackles_won": 0.6349, "tackles": 0.7408, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.057, "big_chances_missed": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3597, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "assists": 0.0393, "assist_rate": 0.0393, "expected_goals": 0.0601, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "shots_on_target": 0.205, "total_shots": 0.5994, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.7, "total_pass": 15.2144, "accurate_pass": 12.478, "duels_won": 0.526, "total_long_balls": 0.8229, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3522, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2225, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8512, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.992, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6269, "crosses_total": 0.2239, "crosses_accurate": 0.0746, "touches": 18.8159, "possession_lost": 3.8427, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6376, "aerial_won": 0.256, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2066, "tackles": 0.2066, "clearances": 0.4295, "total_contest": 0.3948, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0635, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1114, "total_progression": 10.6373, "progressive_carries": 0.1084, "shots_off_target": 0.3944 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.7 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 22.7, "minutes_scale": 1.0034, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "assists": 0.0394, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0592, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0103, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.90 (squad xG sum 0.8835, xG scale 1.0175, xA scale 1.0175, team xA 0.62 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.99, "creation_factor": 1.1717 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.899, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8835, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6086, "team_expected_assists": 0.6192, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6888, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0175, "xa_scale": 1.0175, "opponent_lambda": 1.451, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0603, "after": 0.0328 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0263, "after": 0.0143 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 6.1323, "total_progression": 10.6736, "progressive_carries": 0.1088, "shots_off_target": 0.3957, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.447, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.99, "creation_factor": 1.1717, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3214, "fifa_rank": 1426.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, "won_contest": 0.0, 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"appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3609, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "assist_rate": 0.0394, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0592, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2057, "total_shots": 0.6014, "rating": 6.6829, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 15.2663, "accurate_pass": 12.5206, "duels_won": 0.5278, "total_long_balls": 0.8257, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3534, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8609, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0329, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6598, "crosses_total": 0.2247, "crosses_accurate": 0.0749, "touches": 18.8801, "possession_lost": 3.8558, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6398, "aerial_won": 0.2569, "aerial_lost": 0.2429, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2073, "tackles": 0.2073, "clearances": 0.431, "total_contest": 0.3961, 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0.0261, "creation_factor": 1.1717, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9, "expected_assists": 0.62, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 393, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } }, "Villarreal": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Gerard Moreno": { "player_id": 146866, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 180, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2393, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1089, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2035 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0384 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0228 } ], "others": -0.0293, "total": 0.7888, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.321729 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.053792 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.048055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029377 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.02823 } ], "others_margin": -0.036429 } }, { "target": 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.044011 } ], "others_margin": 0.08108 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10703965276479721, "model_output": 0.107, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": 0.007, "total": 0.107, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.20302 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.126825 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.126458 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.105839 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.089109 } ], "others_margin": 0.067836 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.061618685722351, "model_output": 1.0616, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1769 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0627 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0527 } ], "others": 0.1892, "total": 1.0616, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.231145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.071064 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07056 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.065542 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.058613 } ], "others_margin": 0.196167 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.952095031738281, "model_output": 6.9521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0705 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.056 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0614, "total": 6.9521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.070483 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.056 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028209 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016635 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015731 } ], "others_margin": 0.06149 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9971, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2727, "goals": 0.2862, "goal_rate": 0.2862, "shots_on_target": 0.7865, "total_shots": 2.0001, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0723, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.6411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7311, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1268, "tackles_won": 0.3775, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 1.0214, "blocks": 0.0162, "big_chances_created": 0.3537, "big_chances_missed": 0.2678, "xgot": 0.4008, "offsides": 0.6015, "ball_carries": 14.2785, "total_progression": 41.0089, "progressive_carries": 1.0532, "shots_off_target": 1.2136 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9971, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2727, "goals": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.2888, "shots_on_target": 0.7897, "total_shots": 2.0027, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.651, "fouls_drawn": 0.7243, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 1.0214, "blocks": 0.0162, "big_chances_created": 0.3537, "big_chances_missed": 0.2678, "xgot": 0.4008, "offsides": 0.6012, "ball_carries": 14.2785, "total_progression": 41.0089, "progressive_carries": 1.0532, "shots_off_target": 1.2136 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0093, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.852, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6411, "after": 0.651 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7311, "after": 0.7243 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2727, "goals": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.2888, "shots_on_target": 0.7897, "total_shots": 2.0033, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.651, "fouls_drawn": 0.7243, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 1.0214, "blocks": 0.0162, "big_chances_created": 0.3537, "big_chances_missed": 0.2678, "xgot": 0.4008, "offsides": 0.6012, "ball_carries": 14.2785, "total_progression": 41.0089, "progressive_carries": 1.0532, "shots_off_target": 1.2136 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2345, "goals": 0.2484, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "shots_on_target": 0.6791, "total_shots": 1.7228, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.651, "fouls_drawn": 0.7243, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 1.0214, "blocks": 0.0162, "big_chances_created": 0.3537, "big_chances_missed": 0.2303, "xgot": 0.3447, "offsides": 0.6012, "ball_carries": 14.2785, "total_progression": 41.0089, "progressive_carries": 1.0532, "shots_off_target": 1.0437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.86, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.86, "skill_edge": -0.0452, "height_edge": -0.05, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.5379, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "market_value": 7700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5256 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "market_value": 9300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5502 } ], "xg_override": 0.2345 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0033, "after": 1.7228 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2136, "after": 1.0437 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7897, "after": 0.6791 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4008, "after": 0.3447 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2888, "after": 0.2484 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2727, "after": 0.2345 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2678, "after": 0.2303 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2345, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6791, "total_shots": 1.7228, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.651, "fouls_drawn": 0.7243, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 1.0214, "blocks": 0.0162, "big_chances_created": 0.3537, "big_chances_missed": 0.2303, "xgot": 0.3447, "offsides": 0.6012, "ball_carries": 14.2785, "total_progression": 41.0089, "progressive_carries": 1.0532, "shots_off_target": 1.0437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.86, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2393, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6791, "total_shots": 1.7228, "expected_assists": 0.1089, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.651, "fouls_drawn": 0.7243, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 1.0214, "blocks": 0.0162, "big_chances_created": 0.3537, "big_chances_missed": 0.2303, "xgot": 0.3517, "offsides": 0.6012, "ball_carries": 14.2785, "total_progression": 41.0089, "progressive_carries": 1.0532, "shots_off_target": 1.0437, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.86, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0489, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2393, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6791, "total_shots": 1.7228, "expected_assists": 0.1089, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.651, "fouls_drawn": 0.7243, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "tackles": 0.5772, "clearances": 1.0214, "blocks": 0.0162, "big_chances_created": 0.3537, "big_chances_missed": 0.2303, 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570.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2393, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6791, "total_shots": 1.7228, "expected_assists": 0.1089, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5654, "crosses_total": 1.0676, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 47.409, "possession_lost": 10.4536, "dispossessed": 0.6843, "duels_lost": 3.1781, "aerial_lost": 0.4634, "total_contest": 2.2332, "won_contest": 1.4511, "ball_recovery": 1.8384, "challenges_lost": 0.7732, "fouls": 0.651, "fouls_drawn": 0.7243, "assist_rate": 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2128, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "scorer_weight": 0.251, "squad_weight_total": 1.5114, "weight_share": 0.1661, "finishing_factor": 1.0489, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.36, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.36, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3212 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2393, "goal_rate": 0.2484, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6791, "total_shots": 1.7228, "expected_assists": 0.1089, "key_pass": 1.0585, "rating": 6.9521, "minutes": 76.68, "total_pass": 34.3447, "accurate_pass": 28.3155, "duels_won": 3.5472, "total_long_balls": 2.4266, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4634, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.5018, 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{ "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2152 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0747 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0494 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.028 } ], "others": 0.0496, "total": 0.9098, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.274766 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.080106 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052287 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03631 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.031992 } ], "others_margin": 0.056134 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.860832691192627, "model_output": 6.8608, "scale": 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0915 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0375 } ], "others": 0.1747, "total": 7.2375, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.09155 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.062262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.058311 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.044889 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3478, "goals": 0.3164, "goal_rate": 0.3164, "shots_on_target": 1.266, "total_shots": 2.8155, "expected_assists": 0.2154, "key_pass": 1.9777, "rating": 7.2375, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 36.4632, "accurate_pass": 30.9133, "duels_won": 2.4356, "total_long_balls": 1.0249, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5796, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3063, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2426, "crosses_total": 3.5658, "crosses_accurate": 1.3183, "touches": 51.7393, "possession_lost": 12.4293, "dispossessed": 1.2093, "duels_lost": 4.5227, "aerial_lost": 0.2513, "total_contest": 2.136, "won_contest": 0.8841, "ball_recovery": 2.3584, "challenges_lost": 1.0544, "fouls": 0.7638, "fouls_drawn": 0.6306, "assists": 0.3266, "assist_rate": 0.3266, "interceptions": 0.2154, 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0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "expected_assists": 0.0361, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 826, "combined_rank_score": 394.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 30.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 758.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1085, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { 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"name": "goals", "margin": 0.034676 } ], "others_margin": -0.037924 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3210371732711792, "model_output": 1.321, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1701 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1523 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0345 } ], "others": -0.058, "total": 1.321, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.170134 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.152289 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.060545 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.035251 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.03454 } ], "others_margin": -0.058116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.108458995819092, "model_output": 7.1085, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0691 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0192 } ], "others": 0.0157, "total": 7.1085, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.114106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.069147 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.047929 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024754 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.019211 } ], "others_margin": 0.015681 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0171, "expected_assists": 0.1049, "assists": 0.0842, "assist_rate": 0.0842, "expected_goals": 0.1163, "goals": 0.1403, "goal_rate": 0.1403, "shots_on_target": 0.5134, "total_shots": 1.3332, "rating": 7.1085, "minutes": 79.43, "total_pass": 51.9394, "accurate_pass": 43.7108, "duels_won": 3.7055, "total_long_balls": 6.7835, "accurate_long_balls": 3.6829, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5418, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7826, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.9282, "crosses_total": 0.6713, "crosses_accurate": 0.1672, "touches": 65.8274, "possession_lost": 11.8293, "dispossessed": 0.6052, "duels_lost": 2.9907, "aerial_won": 0.394, "aerial_lost": 0.8294, "interceptions": 0.8708, "tackles_won": 0.4181, "tackles": 1.0017, "clearances": 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true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Justin De Haas, César Tárrega", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9101, "skill_edge": -0.0012, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.5353, "defender_skill": 0.5379, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "market_value": 7700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5256 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "market_value": 9300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5502 } ], "xg_override": 0.107 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6326, "after": 1.4858 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0423, "after": 0.9486 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5903, "after": 0.5372 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.187, "after": 0.1702 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", 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"aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7595142722129822, "model_output": 0.7595, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.3934 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1237 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0877 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0736 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.046 } ], "others": -0.1487, "total": 0.7595, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.334118 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117536 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.081881 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.074341 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.049406 } ], "others_margin": -0.178683 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5730513334274292, "model_output": 0.5731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0675 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": -0.0089, "total": 0.5731, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.067533 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022101 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017738 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011169 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.010978 } ], "others_margin": -0.009069 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.744089603424072, "model_output": 6.7441, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.043, "total": 6.7441, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016272 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011807 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.009259 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008838 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008262 } ], "others_margin": -0.042916 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 69.0024, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.025, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4321 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 69.0024, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.025, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4321 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 69.0024, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.025, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4321, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.454, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 69.0024, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.025, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4321, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.454, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 69.0024, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.1268, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0158, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4321, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.454, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 69.0024, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "expected_assists": 0.1268, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 69.0024, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, 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"goal_probability": 0.0252, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "scorer_weight": 0.0319, "squad_weight_total": 1.5114, "weight_share": 0.0211, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.36, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.36, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3212 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9992, "tackles": 1.6718, "tackles_won": 1.0504, "clearances": 2.3105, "aerial_won": 0.7595, "total_shots": 0.5731, "rating": 6.7441, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.4497, "accurate_pass": 37.8142, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4759, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0585, 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"matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0252, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1191, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1191, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "provider_weight": 0.1014, "squad_weight_total": 1.1097, "weight_share": 0.0914, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.1799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1799, "runner_up": "Sergi Cardona", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1014, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Renato Veiga": { "player_id": 1087359, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 190, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { 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is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0702, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5842, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0708, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7339, "fouls_drawn": 0.1296, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.093, "assist_rate": 0.093, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0076, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9983, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5842, "after": 0.5758 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0158 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0158, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2081, "fifa_rank": 1247.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2143, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.7759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.7831, "crosses_total": 0.0746, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 91.4618, "possession_lost": 8.3699, "dispossessed": 0.1855, "duels_lost": 2.1206, "aerial_lost": 0.7203, "total_contest": 0.486, "won_contest": 0.3475, "ball_recovery": 3.4588, "challenges_lost": 0.4374, "fouls": 0.7377, "fouls_drawn": 0.1325, "blocks": 1.2383, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "shots_on_target": 0.0075, "big_chances_created": 0.0969, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 31.4365, "total_progression": 121.8921, "progressive_carries": 0.7833, "key_pass": 0.3611, "shots_off_target": 0.658, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0158, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0188, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0152, "squad_weight_total": 1.5114, "weight_share": 0.0101, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.36, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.36, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3212 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.074, "tackles": 0.9197, "tackles_won": 0.5758, "clearances": 5.0161, "aerial_won": 1.4506, "total_shots": 0.6656, "rating": 7.0245, "minutes": 89.85, "total_pass": 79.1441, "accurate_pass": 71.9974, "duels_won": 2.1284, "total_long_balls": 8.944, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5218, "total_own_half_passes": 48.3684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 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Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0873, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0158, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0873, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "provider_weight": 0.0927, "squad_weight_total": 1.1097, "weight_share": 0.0836, "creation_factor": 1.0158, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.1799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1799, "runner_up": "Sergi Cardona", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1014, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Juan Foyth": { "player_id": 873189, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1638, "tackles": 1.5459, "tackles_won": 0.954, "clearances": 4.5075, "aerial_won": 1.585, "total_shots": 0.4912, "rating": 7.0202, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 59.1546, "accurate_pass": 53.9947, "duels_won": 3.5845, "total_long_balls": 4.3778, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9275, "total_own_half_passes": 35.0622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1376, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.857, "crosses_total": 0.0436, "crosses_accurate": 0.0436, "touches": 70.742, "possession_lost": 6.1434, "dispossessed": 0.5467, "duels_lost": 2.3529, "aerial_lost": 0.8864, "total_contest": 0.1303, "won_contest": 0.0867, "ball_recovery": 3.9422, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.7488, "fouls_drawn": 0.2827, "blocks": 0.9724, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0.1157, "big_chances_created": 0.1028, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 21.1472, "total_progression": 88.7333, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "key_pass": 0.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.3755 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0283)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1898, "tackles": 1.5459, "tackles_won": 0.9691, "clearances": 4.5075, "aerial_won": 1.585, "total_shots": 0.5109, "rating": 7.0202, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 59.1546, "accurate_pass": 53.9947, "duels_won": 3.5845, "total_long_balls": 4.3778, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9275, "total_own_half_passes": 35.0622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1376, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.857, "crosses_total": 0.0424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0436, "touches": 70.742, "possession_lost": 6.1434, "dispossessed": 0.5467, "duels_lost": 2.3529, "aerial_lost": 0.8864, "total_contest": 0.1303, "won_contest": 0.0867, "ball_recovery": 3.9422, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.7361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.9724, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0.1208, "big_chances_created": 0.1028, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 21.1472, "total_progression": 88.7333, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "key_pass": 0.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.3755 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0283, "history_matches": 18, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8936, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1638, "after": 1.1898 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4912, "after": 0.5109 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.954, "after": 0.9691 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7488, "after": 0.7361 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2827, "after": 0.2915 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1157, "after": 0.1208 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1898, "tackles": 1.5459, "tackles_won": 0.9691, "clearances": 4.5075, "aerial_won": 1.585, "total_shots": 0.5109, "rating": 7.0202, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 59.1546, "accurate_pass": 53.9947, "duels_won": 3.5845, "total_long_balls": 4.3778, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9275, "total_own_half_passes": 35.0622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1376, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.857, "crosses_total": 0.0424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0424, "touches": 70.742, "possession_lost": 6.1434, "dispossessed": 0.5467, "duels_lost": 2.3529, "aerial_lost": 0.8864, "total_contest": 0.1303, "won_contest": 0.0867, "ball_recovery": 3.9422, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.7361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.9724, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0.1208, "big_chances_created": 0.1028, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 21.1472, "total_progression": 88.7333, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "key_pass": 0.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.3755 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1898, "tackles": 1.5459, "tackles_won": 0.9691, "clearances": 4.5075, "aerial_won": 1.585, "total_shots": 0.5109, "rating": 7.0202, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 59.1546, "accurate_pass": 53.9947, "duels_won": 3.5845, "total_long_balls": 4.3778, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9275, "total_own_half_passes": 35.0622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1376, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.857, "crosses_total": 0.0424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0424, "touches": 70.742, "possession_lost": 6.1434, "dispossessed": 0.5467, "duels_lost": 2.3529, "aerial_lost": 0.8864, "total_contest": 0.1303, "won_contest": 0.0867, "ball_recovery": 3.9422, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.7361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.9724, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0.1208, "big_chances_created": 0.1028, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 21.1472, "total_progression": 88.7333, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "key_pass": 0.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.3755, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1898, "tackles": 1.5459, "tackles_won": 0.9691, "clearances": 4.5075, "aerial_won": 1.585, "total_shots": 0.5109, "rating": 7.0202, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 59.1546, "accurate_pass": 53.9947, "duels_won": 3.5845, "total_long_balls": 4.3778, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9275, "total_own_half_passes": 35.0622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1376, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.857, "crosses_total": 0.0424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0424, "touches": 70.742, "possession_lost": 6.1434, "dispossessed": 0.5467, "duels_lost": 2.3529, "aerial_lost": 0.8864, "total_contest": 0.1303, "won_contest": 0.0867, "ball_recovery": 3.9422, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.7361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.9724, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "shots_on_target": 0.1208, "big_chances_created": 0.1028, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 21.1472, "total_progression": 88.7333, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "key_pass": 0.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.3755, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1898, "tackles": 1.5459, "tackles_won": 0.9691, "clearances": 4.5075, "aerial_won": 1.585, "total_shots": 0.5109, "rating": 7.0202, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 59.1546, "accurate_pass": 53.9947, "duels_won": 3.5845, "total_long_balls": 4.3778, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9275, "total_own_half_passes": 35.0622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1376, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.857, "crosses_total": 0.0424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0424, "touches": 70.742, "possession_lost": 6.1434, "dispossessed": 0.5467, "duels_lost": 2.3529, "aerial_lost": 0.8864, "total_contest": 0.1303, "won_contest": 0.0867, "ball_recovery": 3.9422, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.7361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.9724, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "expected_assists": 0.044, "shots_on_target": 0.1208, "big_chances_created": 0.1028, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 21.1472, "total_progression": 88.7333, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "key_pass": 0.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.3755, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1898, "tackles": 1.5459, "tackles_won": 0.9691, "clearances": 4.5075, "aerial_won": 1.585, "total_shots": 0.5109, "rating": 7.0202, "minutes": 80.42, "total_pass": 59.1546, "accurate_pass": 53.9947, "duels_won": 3.5845, "total_long_balls": 4.3778, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9275, "total_own_half_passes": 35.0622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.1376, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.857, "crosses_total": 0.0424, "crosses_accurate": 0.0424, "touches": 70.742, "possession_lost": 6.1434, "dispossessed": 0.5467, "duels_lost": 2.3529, "aerial_lost": 0.8864, "total_contest": 0.1303, "won_contest": 0.0867, "ball_recovery": 3.9422, "challenges_lost": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.7361, "fouls_drawn": 0.2915, "blocks": 0.9724, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0405, "expected_assists": 0.044, "shots_on_target": 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0.1028, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 21.1472, "total_progression": 88.7333, "progressive_carries": 0.1076, "key_pass": 0.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.3755, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0397, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.043, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.043, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0352, "squad_weight_total": 1.1097, "weight_share": 0.0317, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.1799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1799, "runner_up": "Sergi Cardona", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1014, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Péter 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"ranking": 612 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 613 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 614 }, { "player_name": "Mason Greenwood", "ranking": 615 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oliver Baumann", "ranking": 617 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 618 }, { "player_name": "Omar Marmoush", "ranking": 619 }, { "player_name": "Pathé Ismaël Ciss", "ranking": 620 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Orsolini", "ranking": 621 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.6252, "goals_prevented": 0.1394, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.4542, "accurate_pass": 21.8796, "total_long_balls": 5.7544, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4066, "touches": 34.0043, "clearances": 1.3287, "ball_recovery": 7.7135, "high_claims": 0.3186, "punches": 0.8675, "aerial_won": 0.3322, "sweeper_actions": 0.8573, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8573, "saves_inside_box": 1.9347, "possession_lost": 2.5746, "duels_won": 0.3322, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.5662, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6527, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.919, "shots_faced": 8.7, "expected_saves": 2.13, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6252, "goals_prevented": 0.1394, "rating": 7.068, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 24.4542, "accurate_pass": 21.8796, "total_long_balls": 5.7544, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4066, "touches": 34.0043, "clearances": 1.3287, "ball_recovery": 7.7135, "high_claims": 0.3186, "punches": 0.8675, "aerial_won": 0.3322, "sweeper_actions": 0.8573, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8573, "saves_inside_box": 1.9347, "possession_lost": 2.5746, "duels_won": 0.3322, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.5662, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6527, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.919, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.72, "opponent_faced": "Javier Guerra, Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.7, "after": 8.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.13, "after": 2.08 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.74, "after": 0.72 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0042, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2203, "tackles": 2.0123, "tackles_won": 1.282, "clearances": 2.7619, "aerial_won": 1.4686, "total_shots": 0.4945, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 67.941, "accurate_pass": 62.6515, "duels_won": 6.941, "total_long_balls": 3.5318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.659, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3018, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.7286, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9229, "crosses_total": 0.6023, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.1058, "possession_lost": 9.2141, "dispossessed": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 4.1706, "aerial_lost": 1.0078, "total_contest": 2.1058, "won_contest": 1.332, "ball_recovery": 7.277, "challenges_lost": 1.5728, "fouls": 0.6193, "fouls_drawn": 0.8399, "blocks": 0.3342, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.2071, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 23.6896, "total_progression": 77.4099, "progressive_carries": 1.5372, "key_pass": 0.9854, "shots_off_target": 0.3864 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0042, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2203, "tackles": 2.0123, "tackles_won": 1.282, "clearances": 2.7619, "aerial_won": 1.4686, "total_shots": 0.4945, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 67.941, "accurate_pass": 62.6515, "duels_won": 6.941, "total_long_balls": 3.5318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.659, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3018, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.7286, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9229, "crosses_total": 0.6023, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.1058, "possession_lost": 9.2141, "dispossessed": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 4.1706, "aerial_lost": 1.0078, "total_contest": 2.1058, "won_contest": 1.332, "ball_recovery": 7.277, "challenges_lost": 1.5728, "fouls": 0.6193, "fouls_drawn": 0.8399, "blocks": 0.3342, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.2071, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 23.6896, "total_progression": 77.4099, "progressive_carries": 1.5372, "key_pass": 0.9854, "shots_off_target": 0.3864 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2203, "tackles": 2.0123, "tackles_won": 1.282, "clearances": 2.7619, "aerial_won": 1.4686, "total_shots": 0.4945, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 67.941, "accurate_pass": 62.6515, "duels_won": 6.941, "total_long_balls": 3.5318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.659, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3018, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.7286, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.9229, "crosses_total": 0.6023, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 94.1058, "possession_lost": 9.2141, "dispossessed": 0.4039, "duels_lost": 4.1706, "aerial_lost": 1.0078, "total_contest": 2.1058, "won_contest": 1.332, "ball_recovery": 7.277, "challenges_lost": 1.5728, "fouls": 0.6193, "fouls_drawn": 0.8399, "blocks": 0.3342, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "shots_on_target": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.2071, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 23.6896, "total_progression": 77.4099, "progressive_carries": 1.5372, "key_pass": 0.9854, "shots_off_target": 0.3864, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dani Raba", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6787, "goals_prevented": 0.2698, "rating": 7.1415, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 21.8249, "accurate_pass": 16.844, "total_long_balls": 7.9229, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0725, "touches": 30.7012, "clearances": 1.3468, "ball_recovery": 7.6644, "high_claims": 1.1506, "punches": 1.6335, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "sweeper_actions": 1.4609, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2911, "saves_inside_box": 1.1466, "possession_lost": 5.0073, "duels_won": 0.2118, "duels_lost": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0308, "fouls_drawn": 0.0827, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4294 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12400000, "quality_factor": 0.5502, "boost_factor": 1.0018, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4548, "goals_prevented": 0.0458, "rating": 7.1415, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.84, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1698, "appearance_probability": 0.129 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4548, "goals_prevented": 0.0458, "rating": 7.1415, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4548, "goals_prevented": 0.0458, "rating": 7.1415, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.129, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4548, "goals_prevented": 0.0458, "rating": 7.1415, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2073, "fifa_rank": 1241.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Carlos Romero": { "player_id": 1396048, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 174, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7405, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 5.5317, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0384, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0248, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0738, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421066, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0783, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "expected_assists": 0.0685, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "expected_assists": 0.2291, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0672, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1032, "combined_rank_score": 460.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 764.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7405, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking": 1027 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Pirmukhamedov", "ranking": 1028 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shota Gvazava", "ranking": 1033 }, { "player_name": "Joachim Andersen", "ranking": 1034 }, { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 1035 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Elanga", "ranking": 1036 }, { "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking": 1037 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.48735814265611, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.236, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0052, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (42 historical appearances) to 14.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { 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-0.0227 } ], "others": -0.0581, "total": 0.2319, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.861215 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.437748 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.102373 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.0874 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.075472 } ], "others_margin": -0.222959 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4403091073036194, "model_output": 0.4403, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2596 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1907 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 0.4403, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.259606 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.190712 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024025 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019001 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.017543 } ], "others_margin": -0.026307 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.740544319152832, "model_output": 6.7405, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0702, "total": 6.7405, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030806 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.021856 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.018184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016949 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012692 } ], "others_margin": -0.070245 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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{ "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0183 } ], "others": -0.0787, "total": 0.4957, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.873831 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.144509 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.055301 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.050601 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.032436 } ], "others_margin": -0.147668 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17592862248420715, "model_output": 0.1759, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": 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"substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0069, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2208, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "assists": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0211, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "shots_on_target": 0.053, "total_shots": 0.2709, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 14.72, "total_pass": 8.9489, "accurate_pass": 7.8358, "duels_won": 1.1085, "total_long_balls": 0.6559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3173, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5482, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3255, "possession_lost": 1.8083, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.0616, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.4035, "tackles_won": 0.3834, "tackles": 0.8879, "clearances": 0.4881, "total_contest": 0.2501, "won_contest": 0.0536, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.1743, "fouls_drawn": 0.167, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7774, "total_progression": 13.9006, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.2179 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14500000, "quality_factor": 0.5737, "boost_factor": 1.0069, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2208, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0209, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0324, "shots_on_target": 0.0526, "total_shots": 0.2689, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 14.72, "total_pass": 8.9489, "accurate_pass": 7.8358, "duels_won": 1.1085, "total_long_balls": 0.6559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3173, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5482, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3255, "possession_lost": 1.8083, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.0616, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.4029, "tackles_won": 0.3877, "tackles": 0.8879, "clearances": 0.4881, "total_contest": 0.2501, "won_contest": 0.0536, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.1754, "fouls_drawn": 0.1658, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7774, "total_progression": 13.9006, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.2179 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1636, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.7 to 23.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goals": 0.0486, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.33, "projection_minutes": 14.72, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goals": 0.0486, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1307 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0228, "after": 0.0164 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0219, "after": 0.0157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 65.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1307, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7717, "fifa_rank": 11804.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0162, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1307, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "scorer_weight": 0.0205, "squad_weight_total": 1.5114, "weight_share": 0.0136, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.36, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.36, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3212 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0162, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1307, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "provider_weight": 0.0178, "squad_weight_total": 1.1097, "weight_share": 0.016, "creation_factor": 1.1307, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.1799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1799, "runner_up": "Sergi Cardona", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1014, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nathan-Dylan Saliba": { "player_id": 1093229, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 173, "market_value": 13800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.401912 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035006 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034803 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.025131 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023872 } ], "others_margin": -0.159065 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.778803825378418, "model_output": 6.7788, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0986 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0889 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": -0.0311, "total": 6.7788, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098573 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088858 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032855 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.027549 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023884 } ], "others_margin": -0.031011 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3974, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.031, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "shots_on_target": 0.1569, "total_shots": 0.4605, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 25.9012, "accurate_pass": 23.4858, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.6164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3331, "total_own_half_passes": 7.9557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6225, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.8835, "possession_lost": 3.9313, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3331, "total_contest": 0.2832, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.6158, "fouls_drawn": 1.0083, "blocks": 0.3919, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.5901, "total_progression": 47.8311, "progressive_carries": 0.3919, "shots_off_target": 0.3036 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.48, "projection_minutes": 26.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8647, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0322, "after": 0.0171 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0252, "after": 0.0134 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4406, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "scorer_weight": 0.0175, "squad_weight_total": 1.5114, "weight_share": 0.0116, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.36, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.36, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3212 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "provider_weight": 0.0137, "squad_weight_total": 1.1097, "weight_share": 0.0123, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.1799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1799, "runner_up": "Sergi Cardona", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1014, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "player_id": 1009372, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 176, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1535, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0483, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7425, "minutes": 27, 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6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1889, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6685, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4251, "expected_assists": 0.5678, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5212, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1751, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.215, "expected_assists": 0.1187, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.7893, "expected_assists": 0.2452, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2206, "expected_assists": 0.4077, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.023, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1648, "combined_rank_score": 667.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 371.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9688, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 964.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7425, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andrew Robertson", "ranking": 1643 }, { "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking": 1644 }, { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Pedraza", "ranking": 1650 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Provod", "ranking": 1651 }, { "player_name": "Isi Palazón", "ranking": 1652 }, { "player_name": "Walter Benítez", "ranking": 1653 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.778, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.778, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.710848356448757, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.363, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0095, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.3571428571428571, "assists_per90": 0.3571428571428571, "prior_reliability": 0.1867 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (41 historical appearances) to 26.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.36); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { 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"progressive_carries": 1.2354, "shots_off_target": 0.6717 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:07:14.441608+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 611, "rows": 16533 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.4066, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 10.6587, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 8.9859, "accuratePass": 11.9696, "totalShots": 1.9776 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.147883802652359, "model_output": 0.1479, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.09 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0054 } ], "others": 0.0074, "total": 0.1479, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.60677 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.209733 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.051484 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.040868 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.037513 } ], "others_margin": 0.050804 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1435212939977646, "model_output": 0.1435, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1497 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0696 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0908 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.1435, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.595353 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.136924 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.064158 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04687 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.043757 } ], "others_margin": 0.04787 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.44443467259407043, "model_output": 0.4444, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2212 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0207, "total": 0.4444, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.531805 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.126304 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.060092 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.058322 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.051883 } ], "others_margin": 0.047514 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1161818504333496, "model_output": 1.1162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.596 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.145 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0484 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 1.1162, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.59603 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.144999 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.057139 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.049058 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.048392 } ], "others_margin": 0.031874 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04495745897293091, "model_output": 0.045, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0009, "total": 0.045, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.364475 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.098642 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.096255 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088998 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.060759 } ], "others_margin": -0.02145 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5364845991134644, "model_output": 0.5365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2243 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": 0.0474, "total": 0.5365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.399857 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119509 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051226 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.044886 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.04335 } ], "others_margin": 0.092307 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.742539405822754, "model_output": 6.7425, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1265 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0435 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": 0.0069, "total": 6.7425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.126521 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043502 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01865 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018263 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01337 } ], "others_margin": 0.006992 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"margin": -0.107502 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.074518 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.072824 } ], "others_margin": -0.27322 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3129972517490387, "model_output": 0.313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2504 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0307, "total": 0.313, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.458875 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076909 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074326 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.03686 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.036418 } ], "others_margin": -0.093187 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.606286525726318, "model_output": 6.6063, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0539, "total": 6.6063, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.049148 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025863 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011416 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009422 } ], "others_margin": -0.053811 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0722, "goals": 0.0958, "goal_rate": 0.0958, "shots_on_target": 0.2363, "total_shots": 0.606, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3128, "rating": 6.6063, "minutes": 14.99, "total_pass": 3.6656, "accurate_pass": 2.6139, "duels_won": 1.2688, "total_long_balls": 0.0681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0681, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8385, "crosses_total": 0.0115, "crosses_accurate": 0.0115, "touches": 7.4261, "possession_lost": 2.5911, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 1.8495, "aerial_lost": 0.4359, "total_contest": 0.6124, "won_contest": 0.0679, "ball_recovery": 0.4574, "challenges_lost": 0.0195, "fouls": 0.37, "fouls_drawn": 0.1986, "assists": 0.007, "assist_rate": 0.007, "interceptions": 0.1542, "tackles_won": 0.3167, "tackles": 0.471, "clearances": 0.332, "blocks": 0.0582, "big_chances_created": 0.0215, "big_chances_missed": 0.0072, "xgot": 0.0172, "offsides": 0.1066, "ball_carries": 1.2601, "total_progression": 6.0024, "progressive_carries": 0.3773, "shots_off_target": 0.3697 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0012)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0722, "goals": 0.0957, "goal_rate": 0.0957, "shots_on_target": 0.236, "total_shots": 0.6053, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3128, "rating": 6.6063, "minutes": 14.99, "total_pass": 3.6656, "accurate_pass": 2.6139, "duels_won": 1.2688, "total_long_balls": 0.0681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0681, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8385, "crosses_total": 0.0115, 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0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083159, "match_date": "2025-12-06", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 39, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0612, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 7717, "combined_rank_score": 6124.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 11804.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7021, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Maciá", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luís Silva", "ranking": 7712 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Zlobin", "ranking": 7713 }, { "player_name": "Ferro", "ranking": 7714 }, { "player_name": "Liziero", "ranking": 7715 }, { "player_name": "Ianis Stoica", "ranking": 7716 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Facundo Agustín Cáseres", "ranking": 7718 }, { "player_name": "Weverson", "ranking": 7719 }, { "player_name": "José Fontán", "ranking": 7720 }, { "player_name": "Dario Špikić", "ranking": 7721 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Maga", "ranking": 7722 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0749, "total": 0.269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.317966 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.228921 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047462 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034883 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023718 } ], "others_margin": -0.074899 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702101230621338, "model_output": 6.7021, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0069, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2208, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "assists": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0211, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0326, "shots_on_target": 0.053, "total_shots": 0.2709, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 14.72, "total_pass": 8.9489, "accurate_pass": 7.8358, "duels_won": 1.1085, "total_long_balls": 0.6559, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3173, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5482, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3255, "possession_lost": 1.8083, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.0616, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.4035, "tackles_won": 0.3834, "tackles": 0.8879, "clearances": 0.4881, 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"total_own_half_passes": 3.5515, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2876, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3974, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5482, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3255, "possession_lost": 1.8083, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.0616, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.4029, "tackles_won": 0.3877, "tackles": 0.8879, "clearances": 0.4881, "total_contest": 0.2501, "won_contest": 0.0536, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.1754, "fouls_drawn": 0.1658, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7774, "total_progression": 13.9006, "progressive_carries": 0.2058, "shots_off_target": 0.2179 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1636, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.7 to 23.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goals": 0.0486, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.33, "projection_minutes": 14.72, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goals": 0.0486, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1307 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0228, "after": 0.0164 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0219, "after": 0.0157 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 65.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1307, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7717, "fifa_rank": 11804.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8223, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4883, "possession_lost": 2.7125, "dispossessed": 0.1207, "duels_lost": 1.5924, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1207, "interceptions": 0.6043, "tackles_won": 0.5816, "tackles": 1.3318, "clearances": 0.7321, "total_contest": 0.3751, "won_contest": 0.0804, "challenges_lost": 0.4494, "fouls": 0.2631, "fouls_drawn": 0.2487, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6661, "total_progression": 20.8509, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.3269, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.33, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0162, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1307, "fifa_overall": 65.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "scorer_weight": 0.0205, "squad_weight_total": 1.5114, "weight_share": 0.0136, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.36, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.36, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3212 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3312, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0164, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0789, "total_shots": 0.4058, "rating": 6.7021, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 13.4233, "accurate_pass": 11.7537, "duels_won": 1.6627, "total_long_balls": 0.9839, "accurate_long_balls": 0.476, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3272, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9314, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0961, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.401912 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035006 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034803 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.025131 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.023872 } ], "others_margin": -0.159065 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.778803825378418, "model_output": 6.7788, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0986 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0889 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": -0.0311, "total": 6.7788, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098573 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088858 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032855 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.027549 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023884 } ], "others_margin": -0.031011 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3974, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assists": 0.031, "assist_rate": 0.031, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goals": 0.0397, "goal_rate": 0.0397, "shots_on_target": 0.1569, "total_shots": 0.4605, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 25.9012, "accurate_pass": 23.4858, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.6164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3331, "total_own_half_passes": 7.9557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6225, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.8835, "possession_lost": 3.9313, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3331, "total_contest": 0.2832, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.6158, "fouls_drawn": 1.0083, "blocks": 0.3919, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.5901, "total_progression": 47.8311, "progressive_carries": 0.3919, "shots_off_target": 0.3036 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.0083, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.48, "projection_minutes": 26.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8647, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goals": 0.0343, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4221, xG scale 1.0203, xA scale 1.0203, team xA 1.08 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.451, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4221, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0618, "team_expected_assists": 1.0833, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7466, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0203, "xa_scale": 1.0203, "opponent_lambda": 0.899, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0322, "after": 0.0171 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0252, "after": 0.0134 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4406, "fifa_rank": 4706.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "scorer_weight": 0.0175, "squad_weight_total": 1.5114, "weight_share": 0.0116, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.36, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.36, "runner_up": "Ayoze Pérez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3212 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3436, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0343, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0.3982, "rating": 6.7788, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.0215, "total_progression": 41.3578, "progressive_carries": 0.3389, "shots_off_target": 0.2625, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.48, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.547, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 1.0255, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0132, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "provider_weight": 0.0137, "squad_weight_total": 1.1097, "weight_share": 0.0123, "creation_factor": 1.0213, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ilias Akhomach", "weight": 0.1799, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1799, "runner_up": "Sergi Cardona", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1014, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.45, "expected_assists": 1.08, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 517, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.98, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Sergi Cardona" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.546, "xg_contribution": 0.1839, "xg_multiplier": 1.0965, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergi Cardona", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.454 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (LW) is slightly favored against Sergi Cardona in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.184 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Dani Raba", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1496, "xg_multiplier": 0.8007, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Raba (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Arnaut Danjuma", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1315, "xg_multiplier": 0.7654, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arnaut Danjuma (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.77 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luis Rioja", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1126, "xg_multiplier": 0.7419, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Rioja (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Guido Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "xg_contribution": 0.0345, "xg_multiplier": 0.7604, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 } ], "duel_analysis": "Guido Rodríguez (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pepelu", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.261, "xg_contribution": 0.0235, "xg_multiplier": 0.7954, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pape Gueye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.739 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pepelu (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pape Gueye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.023 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ayoze Pérez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2934, "xg_multiplier": 0.8797, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayoze Pérez (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Justin De Haas and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.293 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.275, "xg_contribution": 0.3859, "xg_multiplier": 1.1097, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.725 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (ST) is slightly favored against Justin De Haas and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €8M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.386 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Gerard Moreno", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2345, "xg_multiplier": 0.86, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gerard Moreno (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Justin De Haas and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.235 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ilias Akhomach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.505, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.107, "xg_multiplier": 0.9101, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilias Akhomach (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Justin De Haas and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Santi Comesaña", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Pablo Maffeo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "xg_contribution": 0.0633, "xg_multiplier": 1.1298, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Maffeo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santi Comesaña (LM) is slightly favored against Pablo Maffeo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.613, "xg_contribution": 0.1442, "xg_multiplier": 1.2396, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.387 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Guido Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.54, "away_midfield_power": 0.614, "home_creative_power": 0.5, "away_creative_power": 0.544, "home_defensive_power": 0.504, "away_defensive_power": 0.544, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.468, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Javier Guerra", "Guido Rodríguez", "Pepelu" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pape Gueye", "Santi Comesaña" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Javier Guerra vs Pape Gueye", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.99, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.01 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 0.899, "away_lambda": 1.451, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Sergi Cardona", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Raba": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Arnaut Danjuma": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luis Rioja": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Justin De Haas": { "opponents": [ "Ayoze Pérez", "Alberto Moleiro", "Gerard Moreno", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Ayoze Pérez", "Alberto Moleiro", "Gerard Moreno", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Maffeo": { "opponents": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Ayoze Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sergi Cardona": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Dani Raba", "Arnaut Danjuma", "Luis Rioja" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexander Freeman": { "opponents": [ "Dani Raba", "Arnaut Danjuma", "Luis Rioja" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Guido Rodríguez", "Pepelu", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ayoze Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gerard Moreno": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Santi Comesaña": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Maffeo", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Péter Gulácsi": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma", "Luis Rioja" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Juan Foyth": { "opponents": [ "Dani Raba" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Pape Gueye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 1.23. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1261, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1558, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9605, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9985, "home_midfield_factor": 0.99, "away_midfield_factor": 1.01, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4834, "away_avg_quality": 0.5843, "avg_quality_gap": -0.101, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.9139, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.8874, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.9071, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2261, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1243, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0723, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6356, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8142 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.8061 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 0.8625 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.9919 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.886, "result": 0.8788 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.8881 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9605, "result": 0.8531 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1261, "result": 0.9792 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9792, "result": 0.9792, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2261, "factor": 0.9277, "pre": 0.9792, "result": 0.9083 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9083 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1854, "result": 1.0934 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3284, "result": 0.919 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.919, "result": 0.919, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 0.919, "result": 0.8993, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.899 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.899 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.899, "result": 0.899, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.899 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2283, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2587 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.01, "result": 1.2713 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 1.2205 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2205 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0077, "result": 1.2299 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.243 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9985, "result": 1.2411 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1558, "result": 1.3969 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3969, "result": 1.3969, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.2261, "factor": 1.1243, "pre": 1.3969, "result": 1.5706 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5706 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.173, "result": 1.744 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3259, "result": 1.4207 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4207, "result": 1.421, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.421, "result": 1.4514, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.451 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.451 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.451, "result": 1.451, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.451 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1854, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.173, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.899, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.451, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.919, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4207, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.899, "final_away_lambda": 1.451 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.886, "attack_index": 0.796, "defense_concede_index": 0.931, "form_multiplier": 0.988, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.22, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.43, "team_ppg": 0.94, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0077, "attack_index": 0.931, "defense_concede_index": 1.089, "form_multiplier": 1.012, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.67, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 0.94 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Valencia vs Villarreal. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 0.919, Away 1.421). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.899, Away 1.451 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Valencia", "away_squad": "Villarreal", "home_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.899, "away_lambda": 1.451, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.919, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.421 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-24T13:32:56Z", "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }