{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Real Betis", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1443, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1233, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1443, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Betis", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3093, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1443 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.136 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1358 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1233 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0786 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.136, "0-1": 0.1443, "0-2": 0.0786, "0-3": 0.0283, "0-4": 0.0076, "0-5": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.1233, "1-1": 0.1358, "1-2": 0.0726, "1-3": 0.0261, "1-4": 0.0071, "1-5": 0.0015, "2-0": 0.0575, "2-1": 0.0621, "2-2": 0.0336, "2-3": 0.0121, "2-4": 0.0033, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0177, "3-1": 0.0191, "3-2": 0.0103, "3-3": 0.0037, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0041, "4-1": 0.0044, "4-2": 0.0024, "4-3": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3046, "draw": 0.3093, "away_win": 0.3861 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3244, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6756, "btts_yes": 0.3995, "btts_no": 0.6005, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3396, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3969 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 6.98 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 7.05, "GK": 7.42 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Celta 5W-4D-1L vs Real Betis over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ilaix Moriba vs Pablo Fornals will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.76, Away: 0.97. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 1.08, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 1.0286, "away_multiplier": 0.9714 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1443, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3046, "draw": 0.3093, "away_win": 0.3861 }, "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3861, "fair_spread": -0.156, "fair_total": 2.004, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 0.924, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.08, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3244, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3995, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3396, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3969, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Pablo Durán (Celta)", "estimate": 0.1936, "probability": 0.176, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2825, "probability": 0.2461, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sergio Carreira (Celta)", "estimate": 0.0991, "probability": 0.0943, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.1758, "probability": 0.1612, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.004, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 927, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.8, "possession_home_pct": 51.2, "possession_away_pct": 48.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3861, "script": "Real Betis is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.16 goals and fair total 2.00.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Celta must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Betis lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Betis chance creation leans on Abdessamad Ezzalzouli against Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Fer López, Jones El-Abdellaoui, Hugo Álvarez.", "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Abdessamad Ezzalzouli; bench watchlist: Cucho Hernández, Nelson Deossa.", "Assist usage should flow through Pablo Fornals; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Betis tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.00 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Celta is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Betis.", "Celta wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Celta": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Ferrán Jutglà": { "player_id": 949962, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1608, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0572, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.83, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 9.2477, "dispossessed": 0.8731, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3013, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.869, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Fornals, Natan", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Fornals, Natan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1485, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0556, "finishing_factor": 1.0819, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421069, "match_date": "2026-10-18 14:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Alavés", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Celta", "opponent": "Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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"home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "expected_assists": 0.0949, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0553 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0396 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.023 } ], "others": -0.0495, "total": 0.6826, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.273141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06451 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048811 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046156 }, { "name": 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} }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.07627718150615692, "model_output": 0.0763, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 0.0763, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24787 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.072854 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068764 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.065565 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055163 } ], "others_margin": -0.055907 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7271528244018555, "model_output": 0.7272, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.215 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": -0.0836, "total": 0.7272, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27687 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054177 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036428 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029656 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.028192 } ], "others_margin": -0.108859 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8099846839904785, "model_output": 6.81, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0583 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0166 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": 0.0017, "total": 6.81, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05833 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.016562 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01629 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "margin": 0.010734 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010021 } ], "others_margin": 0.001591 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0042, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.191, "goals": 0.1693, "goal_rate": 0.1693, "shots_on_target": 0.5808, "total_shots": 1.3764, "expected_assists": 0.0766, "key_pass": 0.7302, "rating": 6.81, "minutes": 65.94, "total_pass": 13.2762, "accurate_pass": 9.9199, "duels_won": 3.7142, "total_long_balls": 0.469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2764, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8234, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5411, "crosses_total": 0.3826, "crosses_accurate": 0.0515, "touches": 24.8027, "possession_lost": 7.2955, "dispossessed": 0.892, "duels_lost": 4.0034, "aerial_lost": 0.6306, "total_contest": 1.0872, "won_contest": 0.4381, "ball_recovery": 1.5545, "challenges_lost": 0.916, "fouls": 0.9593, "fouls_drawn": 1.7832, "assists": 0.1044, "assist_rate": 0.1044, "interceptions": 0.3894, "tackles_won": 0.7483, "tackles": 1.3564, "clearances": 0.4722, "blocks": 0.0607, "big_chances_created": 0.1079, "big_chances_missed": 0.3629, "xgot": 0.1102, "offsides": 0.1434, "ball_carries": 7.7166, "total_progression": 23.3783, "progressive_carries": 1.1216, "shots_off_target": 0.7956 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0042, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.191, "goals": 0.1671, "goal_rate": 0.1671, "shots_on_target": 0.5812, "total_shots": 1.3704, "expected_assists": 0.0766, "key_pass": 0.7302, "rating": 6.81, "minutes": 65.94, "total_pass": 13.2762, "accurate_pass": 9.9199, "duels_won": 3.7142, "total_long_balls": 0.469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2764, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8234, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5411, "crosses_total": 0.3856, 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"name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0656 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0111, "total": 6.811, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.065618 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015428 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015033 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.010212 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010165 } ], "others_margin": 0.011137 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7364, "tackles": 1.6848, "tackles_won": 1.0227, "clearances": 1.961, "aerial_won": 0.6039, "total_shots": 0.4042, "rating": 6.811, "minutes": 77.99, "total_pass": 36.4171, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 4.5231, "total_long_balls": 4.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0821, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5933, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1484, "crosses_total": 4.347, "crosses_accurate": 1.296, "touches": 60.4794, "possession_lost": 13.0045, "dispossessed": 0.3129, "duels_lost": 3.4838, "aerial_lost": 0.9893, "total_contest": 1.5728, "won_contest": 0.8499, "ball_recovery": 3.022, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.2926, "fouls_drawn": 1.5447, "blocks": 0.2319, "goals": 0.0, 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numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.735, "tackles": 1.6848, "tackles_won": 1.0239, "clearances": 1.961, "aerial_won": 0.6039, "total_shots": 0.4041, "rating": 6.811, "minutes": 77.99, "total_pass": 36.4171, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 4.5231, "total_long_balls": 4.5871, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0821, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5933, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0426, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1484, "crosses_total": 4.339, "crosses_accurate": 1.296, "touches": 60.4794, "possession_lost": 13.0045, "dispossessed": 0.3129, "duels_lost": 3.4838, "aerial_lost": 0.9893, "total_contest": 1.5728, "won_contest": 0.8499, "ball_recovery": 3.022, "challenges_lost": 0.4342, "fouls": 1.2914, "fouls_drawn": 1.5516, "blocks": 0.2319, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0069, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "shots_on_target": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.0347, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 14.7273, "total_progression": 64.6292, "progressive_carries": 1.285, "key_pass": 1.0153, "shots_off_target": 0.396, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9410, xG scale 0.9819, xA scale 0.9819, team xA 0.69 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.735, "tackles": 1.6848, "tackles_won": 1.0239, "clearances": 1.961, "aerial_won": 0.6039, "total_shots": 0.4041, "rating": 6.811, "minutes": 77.99, "total_pass": 36.4171, "accurate_pass": 29.7417, "duels_won": 4.5231, "total_long_balls": 4.5871, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8945, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.941, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7025, "team_expected_assists": 0.6898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7465, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9819, "xa_scale": 0.9819, "opponent_lambda": 1.08, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.248 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0302 } ], "others": -0.1347, "total": 0.824, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.247994 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.13452 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080953 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030894 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030237 } ], "others_margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.0941, "assists": 0.0776, "assist_rate": 0.0776, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "goals": 0.064, "goal_rate": 0.064, "shots_on_target": 0.2965, "total_shots": 0.8228, "rating": 6.8631, "minutes": 84.94, "total_pass": 48.8592, "accurate_pass": 43.3497, "duels_won": 7.1342, "total_long_balls": 1.2472, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7765, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8468, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4516, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.0124, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.898, "crosses_total": 0.4759, "crosses_accurate": 0.1011, "touches": 63.984, "possession_lost": 10.0978, "dispossessed": 0.806, "duels_lost": 4.9504, "aerial_won": 0.1283, "aerial_lost": 0.5539, "interceptions": 0.6268, "tackles_won": 1.1191, "tackles": 2.5707, "clearances": 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gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8705, "expected_assists": 0.1007, "assists": 0.0828, "assist_rate": 0.0828, "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.1021, "goal_rate": 0.1021, "shots_on_target": 0.2949, "total_shots": 0.8105, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 89.56, "total_pass": 48.3697, "accurate_pass": 40.2068, "duels_won": 3.1272, "total_long_balls": 3.0655, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5966, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7124, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5748, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.632, "crosses_total": 0.7389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0975, "touches": 65.7603, "possession_lost": 12.6828, "dispossessed": 0.1875, "duels_lost": 3.0928, "aerial_won": 0.1471, "aerial_lost": 0.6408, "interceptions": 0.355, "tackles_won": 0.5151, "tackles": 0.6513, "clearances": 1.6036, "total_contest": 1.8554, "won_contest": 1.0045, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0005, "total": 0.2949, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.295405 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139354 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.073464 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.04325 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.030132 } ], "others_margin": 0.001475 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.810431718826294, "model_output": 0.8104, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2649 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1398 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.0921, "total": 0.8104, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.264888 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139801 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.031914 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028898 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023699 } ], "others_margin": -0.092059 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.011685371398926, "model_output": 7.0117, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0958 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0084, "total": 7.0117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.095813 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028749 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027528 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026101 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023681 } ], "others_margin": 0.008304 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0011, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8715, "expected_assists": 0.1008, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.1022, "goal_rate": 0.1022, "shots_on_target": 0.2952, "total_shots": 0.8114, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 89.56, "total_pass": 48.4229, "accurate_pass": 40.251, "duels_won": 3.1306, "total_long_balls": 3.0689, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5984, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5941, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6569, "crosses_total": 0.7397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0976, "touches": 65.8326, "possession_lost": 12.6968, "dispossessed": 0.1877, "duels_lost": 3.0962, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "aerial_lost": 0.6415, "interceptions": 0.3554, "tackles_won": 0.5157, "tackles": 0.652, "clearances": 1.6054, "total_contest": 1.8574, "won_contest": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.557, "fouls": 0.8582, "fouls_drawn": 1.3308, "blocks": 0.2247, "big_chances_created": 0.2075, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.0516, "ball_carries": 17.8003, "total_progression": 71.9666, "progressive_carries": 1.9281, "shots_off_target": 0.5162 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11500000, "quality_factor": 0.5399, "boost_factor": 1.0011, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0155)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8715, "expected_assists": 0.1008, "assists": 0.0816, "assist_rate": 0.0816, "expected_goals": 0.0814, "goals": 0.1006, "goal_rate": 0.1006, "shots_on_target": 0.2906, "total_shots": 0.8129, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 89.56, "total_pass": 48.4229, "accurate_pass": 40.251, "duels_won": 3.1306, "total_long_balls": 3.0689, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5984, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5941, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.6877, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6569, "crosses_total": 0.7329, "crosses_accurate": 0.0976, "touches": 65.8326, "possession_lost": 12.6968, "dispossessed": 0.1877, "duels_lost": 3.0962, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "aerial_lost": 0.6415, "interceptions": 0.3499, "tackles_won": 0.5077, "tackles": 0.652, "clearances": 1.6054, "total_contest": 1.8574, "won_contest": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.557, "fouls": 0.8636, "fouls_drawn": 1.3429, "blocks": 0.2247, "big_chances_created": 0.2075, "big_chances_missed": 0.2169, "xgot": 0.0516, "ball_carries": 17.8003, "total_progression": 71.9666, "progressive_carries": 1.9281, "shots_off_target": 0.5162 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0155, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9951, "prior_reliability": 0.22, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", 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"totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": 0.0389, "total": 0.6113, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037373 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.035372 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.02709 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021667 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.020344 } ], "others_margin": 0.039042 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.025465488433838, "model_output": 7.0255, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0672 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0311 } ], "others": 0.0149, "total": 7.0255, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.067213 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051091 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.042469 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033608 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031097 } ], "others_margin": 0.014856 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1696, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8508, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6099, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.987, "fouls_drawn": 0.5633, "blocks": 0.3359, "goals": 0.0062, "goal_rate": 0.0062, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0436, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.0194, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0134)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goals": 0.0061, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0436, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0134, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9564, "prior_reliability": 0.1733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1696, "after": 1.1934 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8508, "after": 0.8591 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.987, "after": 0.9935 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goals": 0.0061, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0436, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goals": 0.0061, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0436, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Isco", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0436, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0056, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9410, xG scale 0.9819, xA scale 0.9819, team xA 0.69 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.941, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7025, "team_expected_assists": 0.6898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7465, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9819, "xa_scale": 0.9819, "opponent_lambda": 1.08, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1501, "fifa_rank": 945.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "scorer_weight": 0.0342, "squad_weight_total": 0.9627, "weight_share": 0.0356, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1934, "tackles": 1.4305, "tackles_won": 0.8591, "clearances": 3.891, "aerial_won": 1.5613, "total_shots": 0.6117, "rating": 7.0255, "minutes": 86.08, "total_pass": 77.9477, "accurate_pass": 69.1931, "duels_won": 3.6876, "total_long_balls": 9.0011, "accurate_long_balls": 4.862, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.3322, "total_opp_half_passes": 40.4531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.8609, "crosses_total": 0.6086, "crosses_accurate": 0.0852, "touches": 91.4824, "possession_lost": 10.9719, "dispossessed": 0.4392, "duels_lost": 2.9775, "aerial_lost": 0.744, "total_contest": 0.5554, "won_contest": 0.3192, "ball_recovery": 4.59, "challenges_lost": 0.5858, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5656, "blocks": 0.3359, "goal_rate": 0.0061, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0428, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.0191, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "xgot": 0.0055, "ball_carries": 34.6152, "total_progression": 195.8095, "progressive_carries": 3.0587, "key_pass": 0.1214, "shots_off_target": 0.5905, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.037, "squad_weight_total": 0.6489, "weight_share": 0.057, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Yoel Lago": 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6.9842, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.039694 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.029559 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.029289 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023048 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.012894 } ], "others_margin": 0.024621 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025056, "match_date": "2025-08-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2134 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3182, "combined_rank_score": 1148.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2205.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.012, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Altay Bayındır", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Cresswell", "ranking": 3178 }, { "player_name": "Jaydee Canvot", "ranking": 3179 }, { "player_name": "Julio César Enciso", "ranking": 3180 }, { "player_name": "Franco Mastantuono", "ranking": 3181 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Bragança", "ranking": 3183 }, { "player_name": "Hákon Arnar Haraldsson", "ranking": 3184 }, { "player_name": "Brajan Gruda", "ranking": 3185 }, { "player_name": "Guillaume Restes", "ranking": 3186 }, { "player_name": "Johan Mojica", 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"xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.317, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.631139321914329, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.218, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9868, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5005, "tackles": 0.5989, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "clearances": 1.4144, "aerial_won": 0.598, "total_shots": 0.1194, "rating": 6.7521, 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1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 6.0, "aerialWon": 0.0, "totalClearance_p90": 12.0, "totalTackle": 1.0, "totalPass": 33.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5005249381065369, "model_output": 0.5005, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4634 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": 0.008, "total": 0.5005, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.777691 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.087226 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.077517 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.034138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.024685 } ], "others_margin": 0.016026 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5988910794258118, "model_output": 0.5989, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8109 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": -0.022, "total": 0.5989, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.871731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.036383 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.035371 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.032151 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.029704 } ], "others_margin": -0.0359 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3852483630180359, "model_output": 0.3852, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4687 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0185, "total": 0.3852, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.795481 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.047434 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.034942 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.034665 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.028292 } ], "others_margin": 0.049492 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4144206047058105, "model_output": 1.4144, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2969 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.326 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1901 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1326 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0722 } ], "others": 0.0636, "total": 1.4144, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.095088 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.248725 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.137443 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.097779 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.052072 } ], "others_margin": 0.046036 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5979768633842468, "model_output": 0.598, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8379 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1265 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0413 } ], "others": 0.0429, "total": 0.598, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.932087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.264646 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.119639 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.087531 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077398 } ], "others_margin": 0.074408 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.11936894804239273, "model_output": 0.1194, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1985 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0462, "total": 0.1194, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.198522 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055904 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025293 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.014595 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011159 } ], "others_margin": -0.04629 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752114295959473, "model_output": 6.7521, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0272, "total": 6.7521, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028503 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02623 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.024315 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016318 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.016086 } ], "others_margin": -0.0272 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9868, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4939, "tackles": 0.591, "tackles_won": 0.3802, "clearances": 1.3958, "aerial_won": 0.5901, "total_shots": 0.1178, "rating": 6.7521, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9868, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8944, "total_progression": 1.5448, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1178 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4200000, "quality_factor": 0.4523, "boost_factor": 0.9868, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0180)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4922, "tackles": 0.591, "tackles_won": 0.3733, "clearances": 1.3958, "aerial_won": 0.5901, "total_shots": 0.1157, "rating": 6.7521, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9762, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8944, "total_progression": 1.5448, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1178 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.018, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9868, "after": 0.9762 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3802, "after": 0.3733 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3727, "tackles": 0.4476, "tackles_won": 0.2827, "clearances": 1.057, "aerial_won": 0.4469, "total_shots": 0.0892, "rating": 6.7521, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.63, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7573, "appearance_probability": 0.218 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3727, "tackles": 0.4476, "tackles_won": 0.2827, "clearances": 1.057, "aerial_won": 0.4469, "total_shots": 0.0892, "rating": 6.7521, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0892, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3727, "tackles": 0.4476, "tackles_won": 0.2827, "clearances": 1.057, "aerial_won": 0.4469, "total_shots": 0.0892, "rating": 6.7521, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2414 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": -0.0743, "total": 0.2288, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.24142 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.024764 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.020171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014389 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013997 } ], "others_margin": -0.074184 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.849859714508057, "model_output": 6.8499, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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22, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6124, "tackles": 0.6913, "tackles_won": 0.3793, "clearances": 1.9123, "aerial_won": 0.8016, "total_shots": 0.2801, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 21.61, "total_pass": 13.4668, "accurate_pass": 12.808, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.7036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1043, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2326, "possession_lost": 0.9883, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1597, "aerial_lost": 1.1627, "total_contest": 0.3294, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0551, "challenges_lost": 0.2801, "fouls": 0.3875, "fouls_drawn": 0.3875, "blocks": 0.2801, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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8.6037, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.58, "projection_minutes": 21.61, "minutes_scale": 1.2763, "appearance_probability": 0.411 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7778, "tackles": 0.8823, "tackles_won": 0.486, "clearances": 2.4406, "aerial_won": 1.0231, "total_shots": 0.3582, "rating": 6.8499, "minutes": 27.58, "total_pass": 17.1872, "accurate_pass": 16.3464, "duels_won": 3.1878, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2382, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.8221, "possession_lost": 1.2613, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7563, "aerial_lost": 1.1627, 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2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.411, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 6.7362, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.110584 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070786 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.024293 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019301 } ], "others_margin": -0.008092 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6688, "expected_assists": 0.0545, "assists": 0.0809, "assist_rate": 0.0809, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.1317, "total_shots": 0.3969, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 4.5549, "total_progression": 28.963, "progressive_carries": 0.56, "shots_off_target": 0.2652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.64, "projection_minutes": 22.96, "minutes_scale": 0.986, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9410, xG scale 0.9819, xA scale 0.9819, team xA 0.69 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0726, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.941, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7025, "team_expected_assists": 0.6898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7465, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9819, "xa_scale": 0.9819, "opponent_lambda": 1.08, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0444, "after": 0.0231 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0537, "after": 0.0279 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, 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1.0826, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0726, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0226, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0272, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0272, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "provider_weight": 0.0349, "squad_weight_total": 0.6489, 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-0.098053 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5041689872741699, "model_output": 0.5042, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.382 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": -0.1085, "total": 0.5042, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.381999 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.03359 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.026794 }, { "name": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.10647 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.037737 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011336 } ], "others_margin": -0.02523 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, "fouls_drawn": 0.6168, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4058, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16.1961, "total_progression": 73.216, "progressive_carries": 0.4973, "shots_off_target": 0.5421, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9385, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "assist_rate": 0.0992, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "goal_rate": 0.064, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "total_shots": 0.7536, "rating": 6.9979, "minutes": 34.88, "total_pass": 30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, 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"ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2722, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": 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], "others_margin": -0.033829 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.024499060586094856, "model_output": 0.0245, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0245, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.389153 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09415 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.079575 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.070792 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.069165 } ], "others_margin": -0.26183 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2686174213886261, "model_output": 0.2686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2948 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.2686, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.5704, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2686, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.063, "shots_on_target": 0.1976, "total_shots": 0.5718, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "key_pass": 0.7818, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 22.37, "total_pass": 12.6607, "accurate_pass": 10.2031, "duels_won": 0.8625, "total_long_balls": 0.2099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.19, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9546, "crosses_total": 0.9428, "crosses_accurate": 0.1397, "touches": 17.6044, "possession_lost": 5.0196, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 1.9569, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.4735, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 0.9722, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.614, "fouls_drawn": 0.4281, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.08, "tackles": 0.1529, "clearances": 0.0784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0365, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "offsides": 0.0329, "ball_carries": 6.3591, "total_progression": 29.246, "progressive_carries": 1.3591, "shots_off_target": 0.3742 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.1961, "total_shots": 0.5676, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "key_pass": 0.7818, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 22.37, "total_pass": 12.6607, "accurate_pass": 10.2031, "duels_won": 0.8625, "total_long_balls": 0.2099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.19, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9546, "crosses_total": 0.9443, "crosses_accurate": 0.1397, "touches": 17.6044, "possession_lost": 5.0196, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 1.9569, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.4735, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 0.9722, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.6123, "fouls_drawn": 0.4263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1247, "tackles_won": 0.0794, "tackles": 0.1529, "clearances": 0.0784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0365, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 6.3591, "total_progression": 29.246, "progressive_carries": 1.3591, "shots_off_target": 0.3742 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0074, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2486, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.4 to 28.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.084, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.029, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.99, "projection_minutes": 22.37, "minutes_scale": 1.2512, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.084, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.029, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.084, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.029, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9410, xG scale 0.9819, xA scale 0.9819, team xA 0.69 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.941, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7025, "team_expected_assists": 0.6898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7465, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9819, "xa_scale": 0.9819, "opponent_lambda": 1.08, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0716, "after": 0.0418 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.084, "after": 0.0491 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3534, "fifa_rank": 2415.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "scorer_weight": 0.0441, "squad_weight_total": 0.9627, "weight_share": 0.0458, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0471, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0393, "squad_weight_total": 0.6489, "weight_share": 0.0605, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Hugo Álvarez": { "player_id": 1154935, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 176, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 28, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0471, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421069, "match_date": "2026-10-18 14:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Alavés", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", 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"totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 6.6848, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061589 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.015153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01146 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009971 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.009955 } ], "others_margin": -0.00913 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goals": 0.063, "goal_rate": 0.063, "shots_on_target": 0.1976, "total_shots": 0.5718, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "key_pass": 0.7818, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 22.37, "total_pass": 12.6607, "accurate_pass": 10.2031, "duels_won": 0.8625, "total_long_balls": 0.2099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.19, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9546, "crosses_total": 0.9428, "crosses_accurate": 0.1397, "touches": 17.6044, "possession_lost": 5.0196, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 1.9569, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.4735, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 0.9722, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.614, "fouls_drawn": 0.4281, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1256, "tackles_won": 0.08, "tackles": 0.1529, "clearances": 0.0784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0365, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "offsides": 0.0329, "ball_carries": 6.3591, "total_progression": 29.246, "progressive_carries": 1.3591, "shots_off_target": 0.3742 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goals": 0.0625, "goal_rate": 0.0625, "shots_on_target": 0.1961, "total_shots": 0.5676, "expected_assists": 0.0671, "key_pass": 0.7818, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 22.37, "total_pass": 12.6607, "accurate_pass": 10.2031, "duels_won": 0.8625, "total_long_balls": 0.2099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.19, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9546, "crosses_total": 0.9443, "crosses_accurate": 0.1397, "touches": 17.6044, "possession_lost": 5.0196, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 1.9569, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.4735, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 0.9722, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.6123, "fouls_drawn": 0.4263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1247, "tackles_won": 0.0794, "tackles": 0.1529, "clearances": 0.0784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0365, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0232, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 6.3591, "total_progression": 29.246, "progressive_carries": 1.3591, "shots_off_target": 0.3742 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0074, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2486, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.4 to 28.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.084, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.029, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.99, "projection_minutes": 22.37, "minutes_scale": 1.2512, "appearance_probability": 0.595 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.084, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.029, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0716, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.084, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.029, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9410, xG scale 0.9819, xA scale 0.9819, team xA 0.69 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.941, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7025, "team_expected_assists": 0.6898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7465, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9819, "xa_scale": 0.9819, "opponent_lambda": 1.08, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.595 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0716, "after": 0.0418 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.084, "after": 0.0491 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3534, "fifa_rank": 2415.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "scorer_weight": 0.0441, "squad_weight_total": 0.9627, "weight_share": 0.0458, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.7136, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "key_pass": 0.9782, "rating": 6.6848, "minutes": 27.99, "total_pass": 15.8414, "accurate_pass": 12.7664, "duels_won": 1.0792, "total_long_balls": 0.2626, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7018, "crosses_total": 1.1815, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 22.0271, "possession_lost": 6.2807, "dispossessed": 0.7068, "duels_lost": 2.4485, "aerial_lost": 0.4521, "total_contest": 0.5925, "won_contest": 0.3523, "ball_recovery": 1.2164, "challenges_lost": 0.0448, "fouls": 0.7661, "fouls_drawn": 0.5334, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.156, "tackles_won": 0.0993, "tackles": 0.1913, "clearances": 0.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0457, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0169, "offsides": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 7.9567, "total_progression": 36.5935, "progressive_carries": 1.7005, "shots_off_target": 0.4682, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.99, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0471, "finishing_factor": 1.0543, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0393, "squad_weight_total": 0.6489, "weight_share": 0.0605, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.595, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "player_id": 1173575, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 184, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, 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"aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", 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"season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083401, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081817, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0504, "expected_assists": 0.0064, 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081797, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4507, "combined_rank_score": 2528.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6365, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jones El-Abdellaoui", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Cabral", "ranking": 4502 }, { "player_name": "Iván Colman", "ranking": 4503 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Montoro", "ranking": 4504 }, { "player_name": "Cryzan", "ranking": 4505 }, { "player_name": "Valentino Lazaro", "ranking": 4506 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Đuričić", "ranking": 4508 }, { "player_name": "Michał Skóraś", "ranking": 4509 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ramos Mingo", "ranking": 4510 }, { "player_name": "Thelo Aasgaard", "ranking": 4511 }, { "player_name": "Richie Laryea", "ranking": 4512 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 25, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09415 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.079575 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.070792 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.069165 } ], "others_margin": -0.26183 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2686174213886261, "model_output": 0.2686, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2948 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.2686, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.575276 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063345 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062223 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042675 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.039936 } ], "others_margin": -0.136453 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.636458873748779, "model_output": 6.6365, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0622 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0277, "total": 6.6365, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062225 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026148 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014984 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01472 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010044 } ], "others_margin": -0.027547 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0677, "goal_rate": 0.0677, "shots_on_target": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.5704, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2686, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3197 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0631, "goals": 0.0672, "goal_rate": 0.0672, "shots_on_target": 0.2507, "total_shots": 0.5699, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.2686, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3197 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0745, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9410, xG scale 0.9819, xA scale 0.9819, team xA 0.69 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.941, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7025, "team_expected_assists": 0.6898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7465, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9819, "xa_scale": 0.9819, "opponent_lambda": 1.08, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0745, "after": 0.0389 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0289, "after": 0.0151 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "scorer_weight": 0.0404, "squad_weight_total": 0.9627, "weight_share": 0.042, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0794, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2962, "total_shots": 0.6739, "expected_assists": 0.0151, "key_pass": 0.3173, "rating": 6.6365, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0265, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3777, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0375, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0149, "finishing_factor": 1.0394, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0121, "squad_weight_total": 0.6489, "weight_share": 0.0186, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Fer López": { 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0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4179 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0344 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": -0.1101, "total": 0.3949, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417917 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037069 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034436 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.02261 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.018741 } ], "others_margin": -0.109966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.736205577850342, "model_output": 6.7362, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0708 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 6.7362, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.110584 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.070786 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.024293 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021182 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.019301 } ], "others_margin": -0.008092 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6688, "expected_assists": 0.0545, "assists": 0.0809, "assist_rate": 0.0809, "expected_goals": 0.045, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.1317, "total_shots": 0.3969, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 4.5549, "total_progression": 28.963, "progressive_carries": 0.56, "shots_off_target": 0.2652 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.64, "projection_minutes": 22.96, "minutes_scale": 0.986, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goals": 0.0522, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.92 (squad xG sum 0.9410, xG scale 0.9819, xA scale 0.9819, team xA 0.69 = 0.75 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0726, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.924, "squad_xg_sum": 0.941, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7025, "team_expected_assists": 0.6898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7465, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9819, "xa_scale": 0.9819, "opponent_lambda": 1.08, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0444, "after": 0.0231 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0537, "after": 0.0279 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0726, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2615, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.481, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0826, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3941, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, 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1.0826, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6594, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "goal_rate": 0.0522, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3914, "rating": 6.7362, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 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"Marcos Alonso, Yoel Lago", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.2996, xG scale 0.8311, xA scale 0.8311, team xA 0.74 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2403, "goal_rate": 0.3042, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7606, "total_shots": 1.862, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.7571, "rating": 6.7104, "minutes": 72.55, "total_pass": 8.0817, "accurate_pass": 6.1934, "duels_won": 1.8404, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9035, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.0319, "possession_lost": 4.5829, "dispossessed": 0.6926, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.08, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8938, "team_expected_assists": 0.7428, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8311, "xa_scale": 0.8311, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2891, "after": 0.2403 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0553, "after": 0.046 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2052, "goals": 0.1801, "goal_rate": 0.1801, "shots_on_target": 0.9878, "total_shots": 2.6634, "expected_assists": 0.1398, "key_pass": 1.4978, "rating": 7.1146, "minutes": 79.66, "total_pass": 45.6307, "accurate_pass": 38.2959, "duels_won": 4.3227, "total_long_balls": 2.2939, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4596, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.8507, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.2275, "crosses_total": 1.8778, "crosses_accurate": 0.3854, "touches": 63.0133, "possession_lost": 12.5545, "dispossessed": 0.6516, "duels_lost": 2.861, "aerial_lost": 0.2577, "total_contest": 2.0402, "won_contest": 1.2108, "ball_recovery": 3.7228, "challenges_lost": 0.3268, "fouls": 0.9878, "fouls_drawn": 1.3383, "assists": 0.0532, "assist_rate": 0.0532, "interceptions": 0.7267, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137503 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.056133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038894 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.033933 } ], "others_margin": -0.072692 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.049728870391846, "model_output": 7.0497, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0321 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0139, "total": 7.0497, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.116395 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032131 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030061 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021204 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012945 } ], "others_margin": 0.014011 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9636, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "assists": 0.1211, "assist_rate": 0.1211, "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0858, "shots_on_target": 0.3339, "total_shots": 1.1832, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4418, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7654, "tackles_won": 0.2473, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8976, "fouls_drawn": 0.9362, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 22.0879, "total_progression": 54.2112, "progressive_carries": 0.6622, "shots_off_target": 0.8493 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0099)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9636, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "assists": 0.1199, "assist_rate": 0.1199, "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 1.1953, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7741, "tackles_won": 0.253, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8928, "fouls_drawn": 0.9269, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 22.0879, "total_progression": 54.2112, "progressive_carries": 0.6622, "shots_off_target": 0.8493 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0099, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9012, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1832, "after": 1.1953 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9362, "after": 0.9269 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7654, "after": 0.7741 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.4418, "after": 3.4483 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2473, "after": 0.253 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9636, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "assists": 0.1199, "assist_rate": 0.1199, "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 1.1953, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, 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"defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán, Ilaix Moriba", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9636, "expected_assists": 0.1525, "assist_rate": 0.1199, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 1.1953, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7741, "tackles_won": 0.253, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8928, "fouls_drawn": 0.9269, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.018, "xgot": 0.0734, "ball_carries": 22.0879, "total_progression": 54.2112, "progressive_carries": 0.6622, "shots_off_target": 0.8493, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán, Ilaix Moriba", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to 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"expected_assists", "before": 0.1525, "after": 0.1267 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9636, "expected_assists": 0.1267, "assist_rate": 0.1199, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 1.1953, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7741, "tackles_won": 0.253, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8928, "fouls_drawn": 0.9269, 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allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.9636, "expected_assists": 0.1267, "assist_rate": 0.1199, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3306, "total_shots": 1.1953, "rating": 7.0497, "minutes": 81.11, "total_pass": 55.0461, "accurate_pass": 47.5614, "duels_won": 2.4875, "total_long_balls": 4.0772, "accurate_long_balls": 2.181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6453, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6467, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.9147, "crosses_total": 3.4483, "crosses_accurate": 0.9549, "touches": 68.4316, "possession_lost": 12.2912, "dispossessed": 0.4157, "duels_lost": 2.9542, "aerial_won": 0.2559, "aerial_lost": 0.6483, "interceptions": 0.7741, "tackles_won": 0.253, "tackles": 0.5414, "clearances": 0.1205, "total_contest": 1.2244, "won_contest": 0.7599, "challenges_lost": 0.7935, "fouls": 0.8928, "fouls_drawn": 0.9269, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0291 } ], "others": -0.1563, "total": 0.5823, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.237236 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11614 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052893 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.048776 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.029133 } ], "others_margin": -0.156269 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.029200077056885, "model_output": 7.0292, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0906 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7145, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assists": 0.0567, "assist_rate": 0.0567, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0373, "goal_rate": 0.0373, "shots_on_target": 0.1385, "total_shots": 0.5812, "rating": 7.0292, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 50.6903, "accurate_pass": 46.4307, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 4.2593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.878, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4932, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5178, "crosses_total": 0.1887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0833, "touches": 61.9017, "possession_lost": 5.7369, "dispossessed": 0.4087, "duels_lost": 3.1617, "aerial_won": 0.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.5025, "interceptions": 1.169, "tackles_won": 1.0442, "tackles": 2.0466, "clearances": 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2.878, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4932, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5178, "crosses_total": 0.1869, "crosses_accurate": 0.0833, "touches": 61.9017, "possession_lost": 5.7369, "dispossessed": 0.4087, "duels_lost": 3.1617, "aerial_won": 0.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.5025, "interceptions": 1.1683, "tackles_won": 1.0499, "tackles": 2.0466, "clearances": 1.3453, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2439, "challenges_lost": 1.0016, "fouls": 1.2175, "fouls_drawn": 1.0452, "blocks": 0.2706, "big_chances_created": 0.227, "big_chances_missed": 0.0191, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 18.7752, "total_progression": 37.0644, "progressive_carries": 0.0756, "shots_off_target": 0.4427 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.933, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5812, "after": 0.591 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0442, "after": 1.0499 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7145, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assists": 0.0613, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0369, "shots_on_target": 0.1372, "total_shots": 0.591, "rating": 7.0292, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 50.6903, "accurate_pass": 46.4307, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 4.2593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.878, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4932, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5178, "crosses_total": 0.1869, "crosses_accurate": 0.0833, "touches": 61.9017, "possession_lost": 5.7369, "dispossessed": 0.4087, "duels_lost": 3.1617, "aerial_won": 0.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.5025, "interceptions": 1.1683, "tackles_won": 1.0499, "tackles": 2.0466, "clearances": 1.3453, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2439, "challenges_lost": 1.0016, "fouls": 1.2175, "fouls_drawn": 1.0452, "blocks": 0.2706, "big_chances_created": 0.227, "big_chances_missed": 0.0191, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 18.7752, "total_progression": 37.0644, "progressive_carries": 0.0756, "shots_off_target": 0.4427 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7145, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assists": 0.0613, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0369, "shots_on_target": 0.1372, "total_shots": 0.591, "rating": 7.0292, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 50.6903, "accurate_pass": 46.4307, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 4.2593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.878, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4932, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5178, "crosses_total": 0.1869, "crosses_accurate": 0.0833, "touches": 61.9017, "possession_lost": 5.7369, "dispossessed": 0.4087, "duels_lost": 3.1617, "aerial_won": 0.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.5025, "interceptions": 1.1683, "tackles_won": 1.0499, "tackles": 2.0466, "clearances": 1.3453, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2439, "challenges_lost": 1.0016, "fouls": 1.2175, "fouls_drawn": 1.0452, "blocks": 0.2706, "big_chances_created": 0.227, "big_chances_missed": 0.0191, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 18.7752, "total_progression": 37.0644, "progressive_carries": 0.0756, "shots_off_target": 0.4427, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Carreira", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergio Carreira", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7145, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.038, "goal_rate": 0.0369, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1372, "total_shots": 0.591, "rating": 7.0292, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 50.6903, "accurate_pass": 46.4307, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 4.2593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.878, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4932, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5178, "crosses_total": 0.1869, "crosses_accurate": 0.0833, "touches": 61.9017, "possession_lost": 5.7369, "dispossessed": 0.4087, "duels_lost": 3.1617, "aerial_won": 0.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.5025, "interceptions": 1.1683, "tackles_won": 1.0499, "tackles": 2.0466, "clearances": 1.3453, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2439, "challenges_lost": 1.0016, "fouls": 1.2175, "fouls_drawn": 1.0452, "blocks": 0.2706, "big_chances_created": 0.227, "big_chances_missed": 0.0191, "xgot": 0.0245, "ball_carries": 18.7752, "total_progression": 37.0644, "progressive_carries": 0.0756, "shots_off_target": 0.4427, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Carreira", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.2996, xG scale 0.8311, xA scale 0.8311, team xA 0.74 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7145, "expected_assists": 0.0458, "assist_rate": 0.0613, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0369, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1372, "total_shots": 0.591, "rating": 7.0292, "minutes": 83.97, "total_pass": 50.6903, "accurate_pass": 46.4307, "duels_won": 3.8032, "total_long_balls": 4.2593, "accurate_long_balls": 2.878, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4932, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9129, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.1971, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5178, "crosses_total": 0.1869, "crosses_accurate": 0.0833, "touches": 61.9017, "possession_lost": 5.7369, "dispossessed": 0.4087, "duels_lost": 3.1617, "aerial_won": 0.4681, "aerial_lost": 0.5025, "interceptions": 1.1683, "tackles_won": 1.0499, "tackles": 2.0466, "clearances": 1.3453, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2439, "challenges_lost": 1.0016, "fouls": 1.2175, "fouls_drawn": 1.0452, "blocks": 0.2706, "big_chances_created": 0.227, "big_chances_missed": 0.0191, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 18.7752, "total_progression": 37.0644, "progressive_carries": 0.0756, "shots_off_target": 0.4427, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Carreira", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9875, "creation_factor": 1.059 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.08, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8938, "team_expected_assists": 0.7428, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8311, "xa_scale": 0.8311, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.038, "after": 0.0316 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0551, "after": 0.0458 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 7.1136, "aerialWon": 1.6349, "totalClearance_p90": 7.7605, "totalTackle": 1.6239, "totalPass": 52.5464 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9031298756599426, "model_output": 0.9031, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", 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{ "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0896 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0314 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": -0.154, "total": 0.7805, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099772 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.049714 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.044882 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.033974 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028775 } ], "others_margin": -0.180208 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.419701099395752, "model_output": 5.4197, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7531 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4925 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3891 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3521 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1061 } ], "others": -0.1246, "total": 5.4197, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.197385 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110761 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.079582 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.066929 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.01932 } ], "others_margin": -0.022719 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.0677237510681152, "model_output": 2.0677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1525 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1634 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1598 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1611 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.1041 } ], "others": 0.153, "total": 2.0677, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104675 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.101169 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.089971 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.08315 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.052918 } ], "others_margin": 0.076848 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.49652180075645447, "model_output": 0.4965, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0495, "total": 0.4965, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061835 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026568 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.019756 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019536 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.013775 } ], "others_margin": -0.049459 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.886875629425049, "model_output": 6.8869, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.0219, "total": 6.8869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032777 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.028845 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.017155 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.015091 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01403 } ], "others_margin": 0.021907 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9101, "tackles": 1.2772, "tackles_won": 0.7865, "clearances": 5.4614, "aerial_won": 2.0836, "total_shots": 0.5003, "rating": 6.8869, "minutes": 88.97, "total_pass": 54.2509, "accurate_pass": 49.833, "duels_won": 3.9355, "total_long_balls": 4.0968, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6608, "total_own_half_passes": 36.8657, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.0282, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3852, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.8048, "crosses_total": 0.0007, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.0676, "possession_lost": 4.7293, "dispossessed": 0.0789, "duels_lost": 1.6195, "aerial_lost": 0.7835, "total_contest": 0.2832, "won_contest": 0.2333, "ball_recovery": 3.3759, "challenges_lost": 0.1754, "fouls": 0.5317, "fouls_drawn": 0.3173, "blocks": 1.1418, "goals": 0.1099, 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"margin": 0.032434 } ], "others_margin": 0.015084 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3537645936012268, "model_output": 0.3538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1099 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0519, "total": 0.3538, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.109924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051464 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024784 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1267, "tackles": 1.3093, "tackles_won": 0.7905, "clearances": 5.958, "aerial_won": 2.1014, "total_shots": 0.3523, "rating": 6.872, "minutes": 79.76, "total_pass": 43.9383, "accurate_pass": 40.1046, "duels_won": 3.9502, "total_long_balls": 4.0323, "accurate_long_balls": 2.041, "total_own_half_passes": 32.3074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.0028, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1018, "crosses_total": 0.0991, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.4129, "possession_lost": 4.4547, "dispossessed": 0.0569, "duels_lost": 2.3912, "aerial_lost": 1.2587, "total_contest": 0.1361, "won_contest": 0.1166, "ball_recovery": 2.5597, "challenges_lost": 0.3758, "fouls": 0.9053, "fouls_drawn": 0.4837, "blocks": 0.9444, "goals": 0.0, 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"rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0296, "total": 6.7596, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.073132 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.028383 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.017806 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.013254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009548 } ], "others_margin": -0.029631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7306, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3879, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4443, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6515, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.144, "fouls_drawn": 0.8381, "blocks": 0.8913, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 15, "history_shrink": 0.25, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 15, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7776, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.6515, "after": 1.6372 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8381, "after": 0.8308 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7306, "after": 0.7243 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.2996, xG scale 0.8311, xA scale 0.8311, team xA 0.74 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8913, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.08, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8938, "team_expected_assists": 0.7428, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8311, "xa_scale": 0.8311, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0541, "after": 0.045 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8913, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4946, "fifa_rank": 5918.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 70.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0051, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8913, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0051, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0045, "squad_weight_total": 1.129, "weight_share": 0.004, "finishing_factor": 0.8913, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3531, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3531, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.251 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7243, "tackles": 2.3701, "tackles_won": 1.3927, "clearances": 1.9361, "aerial_won": 0.6969, "total_shots": 0.4491, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 69.98, "total_pass": 32.142, "accurate_pass": 28.2918, "duels_won": 5.0607, "total_long_balls": 2.301, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7917, "total_own_half_passes": 16.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3572, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7859, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.9348, "crosses_total": 1.6372, "crosses_accurate": 0.3241, "touches": 52.022, "possession_lost": 8.8143, "dispossessed": 0.4874, "duels_lost": 4.0633, "aerial_lost": 0.7713, "total_contest": 1.6795, "won_contest": 0.4945, "ball_recovery": 3.1123, "challenges_lost": 0.5774, "fouls": 1.1425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8308, "blocks": 0.8913, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0051, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0625, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0622, "total_progression": 28.118, "progressive_carries": 0.753, "key_pass": 0.7931, "shots_off_target": 0.4442, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — 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"weight": 0.1087, "rating": 9.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-12", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, 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"total": 3.285, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.029108 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.016539 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014361 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.013839 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.013207 } ], "others_margin": 0.027786 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.056674450635910034, "model_output": -0.0567, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0155, "total": -0.0567, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.041655 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015732 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.011143 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.010886 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0108 } ], "others_margin": -0.015504 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.4224853515625, "model_output": 7.4225, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1054 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0697 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0285 } ], "others": 0.147, "total": 7.4225, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.105441 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.069731 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.03272 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.030103 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028507 } ], "others_margin": 0.146861 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.514)", "stats": { "saves": 3.286, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0431, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9300000, "quality_factor": 0.5142, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0163)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0163, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8976, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.72, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán, Williot Swedberg", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán, Williot Swedberg", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.8976 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8976, "shots_faced": 8.5, "expected_saves": 2.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.72, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán, Williot Swedberg", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.2996, xG scale 0.8311, xA scale 0.8311, team xA 0.74 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8976, "shots_faced": 8.8, "expected_saves": 2.16, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán, Williot Swedberg", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.08, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8938, "team_expected_assists": 0.7428, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8311, "xa_scale": 0.8311, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 8.5, "after": 8.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.08, "after": 2.16 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.72, "after": 0.74 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8976, "shots_faced": 8.8, "expected_saves": 2.16, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán, Williot Swedberg", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2143, "fifa_rank": 1567.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8976, "shots_faced": 8.8, "expected_saves": 2.16, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán, Williot Swedberg", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.129, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3531, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3531, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.251 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2868, "goals_prevented": -0.0567, "rating": 7.4225, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4433, "accurate_pass": 20.0104, "total_long_balls": 12.5641, "accurate_long_balls": 5.3205, "touches": 39.7188, "clearances": 1.4513, "ball_recovery": 8.1062, "high_claims": 1.124, "punches": 0.3723, "aerial_won": 0.6028, "sweeper_actions": 1.3815, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3116, "saves_inside_box": 3.387, "possession_lost": 7.5439, "duels_won": 0.7753, "duels_lost": 0.0913, "total_contest": 0.1285, "won_contest": 0.1285, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0424, "total_own_half_passes": 18.3576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0649, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.8976, "shots_faced": 8.8, "expected_saves": 2.16, "high_pressure_saves": 0.74, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán, Williot Swedberg", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.6648, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Fornals", "weight": 0.1063, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1063, "runner_up": "Isco", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0969, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Diego Conde": { "player_id": 951008, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 188, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0147, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1174, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3128, "combined_rank_score": 1089.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1974.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Conde", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mykola Shaparenko", "ranking": 3123 }, { "player_name": "Kostas Tsimikas", "ranking": 3124 }, { "player_name": "Kepa", "ranking": 3125 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Molina", "ranking": 3126 }, { "player_name": "Václav Jemelka", "ranking": 3127 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lawrence Shankland", "ranking": 3129 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Carter-Vickers", "ranking": 3130 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Wimmer", "ranking": 3131 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Lemar", "ranking": 3132 }, { "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking": 3133 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.40206294284004, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10918467922000183, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4399, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€3,200,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 9.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.6, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.7, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.4, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1418, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 1.3206, "accurate_pass": 0.9782, "total_long_balls": 0.4402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1956, "touches": 1.5652, "clearances": 0.044, "ball_recovery": 0.0587, "high_claims": 0.0293, "punches": 0.0147, "aerial_won": 0.0342, "sweeper_actions": 0.0587, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0342, "saves_inside_box": 0.0587, "possession_lost": 0.1174, "duels_won": 0.0196, "duels_lost": 0.0098, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0098, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0271, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7826, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0489, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1418, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 1.3206, "accurate_pass": 0.9782, "total_long_balls": 0.4402, 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"margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.90226 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.2407 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.086227 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.066372 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053697 } ], "others_margin": 0.166745 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7163381576538086, "model_output": 0.7163, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8164 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0485 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0426 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": -0.0279, "total": 0.7163, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.893407 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.082287 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.076869 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.06227 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052988 } ], "others_margin": -0.038162 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.11754210293292999, "model_output": 0.1175, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2119 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0765 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0331, "total": 0.1175, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.211867 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076504 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015796 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009577 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.006731 } ], "others_margin": -0.033116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.823013782501221, "model_output": 6.823, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0229, "total": 6.823, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.022837 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020313 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019129 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013323 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.011663 } ], "others_margin": 0.022937 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0013, quality 0.536)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3098, "tackles": 0.5079, "tackles_won": 0.3398, "clearances": 2.5898, "aerial_won": 0.7173, "total_shots": 0.1177, "rating": 6.823, "minutes": 27.53, "total_pass": 18.6014, "accurate_pass": 16.4942, "duels_won": 1.5222, "total_long_balls": 2.048, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4161, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6106, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1171, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8835, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 24.8161, "possession_lost": 2.9595, "dispossessed": 0.0705, "duels_lost": 1.5177, "aerial_lost": 0.6761, "total_contest": 0.2011, "won_contest": 0.1305, "ball_recovery": 1.2621, "challenges_lost": 0.1411, "fouls": 0.5594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.9124, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0081, "expected_assists": 0.0429, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9455, "total_progression": 4.2406, "progressive_carries": 0.0718, "key_pass": 0.3821, "shots_off_target": 0.1177 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11200000, "quality_factor": 0.5365, "boost_factor": 1.0013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3116, "tackles": 0.5079, "tackles_won": 0.3433, "clearances": 2.5898, "aerial_won": 0.7173, "total_shots": 0.117, "rating": 6.823, "minutes": 27.53, "total_pass": 18.6014, "accurate_pass": 16.4942, "duels_won": 1.5222, "total_long_balls": 2.048, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4161, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6106, "total_opp_half_passes": 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"total_progression": 2.151, "progressive_carries": 0.0364, "key_pass": 0.1938, "shots_off_target": 0.0597, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.225, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.96, "projection_minutes": 27.53, "minutes_scale": 0.5072, "appearance_probability": 0.225 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1581, "tackles": 0.2576, "tackles_won": 0.1741, "clearances": 1.3137, "aerial_won": 0.3638, "total_shots": 0.0597, "rating": 6.823, "minutes": 13.96, "total_pass": 9.4354, "accurate_pass": 8.3665, "duels_won": 0.7721, "total_long_balls": 1.0388, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7183, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3821, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6101, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9844, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5877, "possession_lost": 1.5012, "dispossessed": 0.0705, "duels_lost": 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.225, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083318, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0093, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6756, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083657, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0989, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta 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"duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083572, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083509, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083263, "match_date": "2026-02-08", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3081, "combined_rank_score": 1048.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 539.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8259, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 1558.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7296, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aitor Ruibal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 }, { "player_name": "Daizen Maeda", "ranking": 3077 }, { "player_name": "Javi Galán", "ranking": 3078 }, { "player_name": "Matt O'Riley", "ranking": 3079 }, { "player_name": "Joshua King", "ranking": 3080 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Artem Bondarenko", "ranking": 3082 }, { "player_name": "Igor Jesus", "ranking": 3083 }, { "player_name": "Luis Rioja", "ranking": 3084 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Alvarado", "ranking": 3085 }, { "player_name": "Callum Wilson", "ranking": 3086 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 27, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.61644058998921, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.30074729954496415, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9974, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (27 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.30)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3732, "tackles": 0.7961, "tackles_won": 0.5771, "clearances": 0.9117, "aerial_won": 0.2631, "total_shots": 0.3414, "rating": 6.7296, "minutes": 28.19, "total_pass": 14.7253, "accurate_pass": 12.4516, "duels_won": 2.2535, "total_long_balls": 1.2565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4586, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2783, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6366, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1733, "crosses_total": 1.4165, "crosses_accurate": 0.2856, "touches": 24.8172, "possession_lost": 5.5773, "dispossessed": 0.2428, "duels_lost": 2.2816, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.9644, "won_contest": 0.5248, "ball_recovery": 1.4339, "challenges_lost": 1.5992, "fouls": 0.2208, "fouls_drawn": 0.563, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0136, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0, "total_progression": 1.6441, "progressive_carries": 1.0, "key_pass": 0.6501, "shots_off_target": 0.3414 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1519, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1291, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1097, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0933, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0793, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0674, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0573, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0487, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-15", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0414, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0352, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.2604, "aerialWon": 0.1493, "totalClearance_p90": 2.4725, "totalTackle": 2.4503, "totalPass": 30.1528 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3731622099876404, "model_output": 0.3732, 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0.037863 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.031415 } ], "others_margin": 0.117147 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.5771224498748779, "model_output": 0.5771, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4556 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": 0.0902, "total": 0.5771, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.761896 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.063195 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.060203 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.040708 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.035604 } ], "others_margin": 0.169899 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9116913676261902, "model_output": 0.9117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0355 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1803 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0727 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0658 } ], "others": -0.0978, "total": 0.9117, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.891028 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.13624 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.073547 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065383 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063175 } ], "others_margin": -0.101863 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.263068825006485, "model_output": 0.2631, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.775 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1986 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0841, "total": 0.2631, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.822714 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.396176 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.07747 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.049974 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.035024 } ], "others_margin": -0.277534 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3413584232330322, "model_output": 0.3414, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2747 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2367 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0284, "total": 0.3414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.274745 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.236744 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.022491 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.020518 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.0203 } ], "others_margin": -0.028463 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729613780975342, "model_output": 6.7296, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0381 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0564, "total": 6.7296, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.038142 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022281 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.015159 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012167 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011902 } ], "others_margin": -0.056486 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 188, "market_value": 19300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assist_rate": 0.0329, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "goal_rate": 0.0257, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7373, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 5, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", 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"match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081801, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1412, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 771, "combined_rank_score": 519.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9667, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 664.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7373, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergi Altimira", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Araújo", "ranking": 766 }, { "player_name": "Han Tae-Hee", "ranking": 767 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Lobotka", "ranking": 768 }, { "player_name": "Pierre-Emile Højbjerg", "ranking": 769 }, { "player_name": "James Tarkowski", "ranking": 770 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joshua 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"name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.0712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561273 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.274716 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.170975 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.170624 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.035865 } ], "others_margin": -0.301594 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27689048647880554, "model_output": 0.2769, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3125 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1788 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0398 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0285 } ], "others": -0.1234, "total": 0.2769, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.31253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.178822 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039812 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.0306 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028498 } ], "others_margin": -0.123312 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.737306594848633, "model_output": 6.7373, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1009 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 6.7373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.10087 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.00967 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.00859 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.007157 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.00575 } ], "others_margin": -0.016047 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 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"accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4942 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2152 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": 0.0115, "total": 0.7586, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.215192 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041704 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.038947 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.032758 } ], "others_margin": 0.011675 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.771129608154297, "model_output": 6.7711, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.098 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 6.7711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098046 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030672 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020133 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0106 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.006589 } ], 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0031, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goals": 0.1503, "goal_rate": 0.1503, "shots_on_target": 0.4196, "total_shots": 1.1173, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0.5582, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 28.88, "total_pass": 13.6885, "accurate_pass": 9.9707, "duels_won": 1.9248, "total_long_balls": 0.9157, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6883, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5508, "crosses_total": 0.2274, "crosses_accurate": 0.2274, "touches": 20.3313, "possession_lost": 5.348, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.3179, "won_contest": 1.0031, "ball_recovery": 0.6482, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2274, "fouls_drawn": 0.4609, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1933, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1933, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.362, "total_progression": 7.8397, "progressive_carries": 0.2274, "shots_off_target": 0.6977 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0031, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0744, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.92, "projection_minutes": 28.88, "minutes_scale": 0.8974, "appearance_probability": 0.587 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0744, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0744, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.2996, xG scale 0.8311, xA scale 0.8311, team xA 0.74 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.08, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8938, "team_expected_assists": 0.7428, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8311, "xa_scale": 0.8311, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.587 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1386, "after": 0.0676 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.037, "after": 0.018 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1878, "fifa_rank": 961.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0639, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "scorer_weight": 0.0663, "squad_weight_total": 1.129, "weight_share": 0.0587, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "appearance_weight": 0.587, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3531, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3531, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.251 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0639, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { 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"fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Barcelona", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "home_score_current": 5.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1672, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0276, "total": 0.4112, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.477872 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059375 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.047264 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043354 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.030625 } ], "others_margin": 0.069775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.642769813537598, "model_output": 6.6428, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", 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"caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0701, "goal_rate": 0.0701, "shots_on_target": 0.2897, "total_shots": 0.7174, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "key_pass": 0.4103, "rating": 6.6428, "minutes": 19.61, "total_pass": 6.6275, "accurate_pass": 5.4761, "duels_won": 1.2176, "total_long_balls": 0.2435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2829, "crosses_total": 0.2486, "crosses_accurate": 0.116, "touches": 11.4254, "possession_lost": 2.9332, "dispossessed": 0.6178, "duels_lost": 2.0236, "aerial_lost": 0.4004, "total_contest": 1.0511, "won_contest": 0.3536, "ball_recovery": 1.1095, "challenges_lost": 0.2438, "fouls": 0.1235, "fouls_drawn": 0.2985, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1006, "tackles_won": 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"target": "rating", "predicted": 6.678633213043213, "model_output": 6.6786, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0698 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 6.6786, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069761 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.018369 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.016303 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012986 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009072 } ], "others_margin": -0.026381 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0031, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goals": 0.1503, "goal_rate": 0.1503, "shots_on_target": 0.4196, "total_shots": 1.1173, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "key_pass": 0.5582, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 28.88, "total_pass": 13.6885, "accurate_pass": 9.9707, "duels_won": 1.9248, "total_long_balls": 0.9157, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6883, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5508, "crosses_total": 0.2274, "crosses_accurate": 0.2274, "touches": 20.3313, "possession_lost": 5.348, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.4424, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.3179, "won_contest": 1.0031, "ball_recovery": 0.6482, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2274, "fouls_drawn": 0.4609, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1933, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1933, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.362, "total_progression": 7.8397, "progressive_carries": 0.2274, "shots_off_target": 0.6977 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0031, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0744, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.92, "projection_minutes": 28.88, "minutes_scale": 0.8974, "appearance_probability": 0.587 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goals": 0.1349, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0744, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1386, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0744, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.2996, xG scale 0.8311, xA scale 0.8311, team xA 0.74 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.08, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8938, "team_expected_assists": 0.7428, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8311, "xa_scale": 0.8311, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.587 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1386, "after": 0.0676 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.037, "after": 0.018 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1878, "fifa_rank": 961.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0639, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "scorer_weight": 0.0663, "squad_weight_total": 1.129, "weight_share": 0.0587, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "appearance_weight": 0.587, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3531, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3531, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.251 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.1349, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3766, "total_shots": 1.0027, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.5009, "rating": 6.6786, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2843, "accurate_pass": 8.9479, "duels_won": 1.7273, "total_long_balls": 0.8218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6177, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9392, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7762, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.2456, "possession_lost": 4.7994, "dispossessed": 0.5081, "duels_lost": 2.1918, "aerial_lost": 0.8098, "total_contest": 1.1827, "won_contest": 0.9002, "ball_recovery": 0.5817, "challenges_lost": 0.5824, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4136, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.8119, "total_progression": 7.0355, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.6261, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0639, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0144, "squad_weight_total": 0.6648, "weight_share": 0.0217, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.587, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Fornals", "weight": 0.1063, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1063, "runner_up": "Isco", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0969, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nelson Deossa": { "player_id": 1129401, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 185, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.064, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0596, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 33, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0167, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Barcelona", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0641, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 2, 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 6.7711, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098046 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030672 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020133 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0106 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.006589 } ], "others_margin": -0.007422 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0007, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4497, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0583, "assist_rate": 0.0583, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goals": 0.0784, "goal_rate": 0.0784, "shots_on_target": 0.2124, "total_shots": 0.7592, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 17.97, "total_pass": 10.687, "accurate_pass": 8.6757, "duels_won": 2.736, "total_long_balls": 0.4081, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2902, "crosses_total": 0.1025, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.1135, "possession_lost": 3.3677, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.0387, "aerial_won": 1.2373, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0519, "tackles_won": 0.3382, "tackles": 0.3382, "clearances": 0.2985, "total_contest": 1.1362, "won_contest": 0.8373, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5363, "fouls_drawn": 0.3231, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2126, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 5.6336, "total_progression": 30.1484, "progressive_carries": 0.8382, "shots_off_target": 0.5468 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9800000, "quality_factor": 0.5201, "boost_factor": 1.0007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0095)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4497, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goals": 0.0777, "goal_rate": 0.0777, "shots_on_target": 0.2117, "total_shots": 0.7602, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 17.97, "total_pass": 10.687, "accurate_pass": 8.6757, "duels_won": 2.736, "total_long_balls": 0.4081, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3851, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7576, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3855, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9293, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2902, "crosses_total": 0.1015, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.1135, "possession_lost": 3.3677, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.0387, "aerial_won": 1.2373, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0528, "tackles_won": 0.3377, "tackles": 0.3382, "clearances": 0.2985, "total_contest": 1.1362, "won_contest": 0.8373, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5339, "fouls_drawn": 0.3214, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2126, "big_chances_missed": 0.1727, "xgot": 0.1135, "ball_carries": 5.6336, "total_progression": 30.1484, "progressive_carries": 0.8382, "shots_off_target": 0.5468 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0095, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1997, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4987, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0862, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.8431, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1259, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 17.97, "minutes_scale": 1.1091, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4987, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0862, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.8431, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1259, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4987, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "assist_rate": 0.064, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.8431, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.1259, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.08 (squad xG sum 1.2996, xG scale 0.8311, xA scale 0.8311, team xA 0.74 = 0.69 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4987, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.064, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.8431, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.0596, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.08, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8938, "team_expected_assists": 0.7428, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6878, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8311, "xa_scale": 0.8311, "opponent_lambda": 0.924, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0914, "after": 0.0433 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0356, "after": 0.0169 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4987, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.064, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.8431, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.0596, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3441, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4987, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.064, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.8431, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.0596, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0417, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "scorer_weight": 0.0417, "squad_weight_total": 1.129, "weight_share": 0.0369, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.3531, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3531, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.251 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4987, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assist_rate": 0.064, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2348, "total_shots": 0.8431, "rating": 6.7711, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 11.8526, "accurate_pass": 9.622, "duels_won": 3.0344, "total_long_balls": 0.4526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4271, "total_own_half_passes": 3.0584, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6457, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7942, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9763, "crosses_total": 0.1126, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.871, "possession_lost": 3.735, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 2.2611, "aerial_won": 1.3723, "aerial_lost": 0.5958, "interceptions": 0.0586, "tackles_won": 0.3745, "tackles": 0.3751, "clearances": 0.3311, "total_contest": 1.2601, "won_contest": 0.9286, "challenges_lost": 0.152, "fouls": 0.5921, "fouls_drawn": 0.3565, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1915, "xgot": 0.0596, "ball_carries": 6.2481, "total_progression": 33.4367, "progressive_carries": 0.9296, "shots_off_target": 0.6064, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0417, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0167, "finishing_factor": 0.9632, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0167, "assist_rate": 0.064, "provider_weight": 0.0211, "squad_weight_total": 0.6648, "weight_share": 0.0318, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Pablo Fornals", "weight": 0.1063, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1063, "runner_up": "Isco", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.0969, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.08, "expected_assists": 0.74, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 452, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.99, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Williot Swedberg", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.194, "xg_contribution": 0.1892, "xg_multiplier": 0.9908, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.806 }, { "player": "Diego Llorente", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.806 } ], "duel_analysis": "Williot Swedberg (ST) is evenly matched against Natan and Diego Llorente in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ferrán Jutglà", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.1638, "xg_multiplier": 0.869, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferrán Jutglà (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Fornals and Natan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.164 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Durán", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1973, "xg_multiplier": 0.8222, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Durán (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Fornals and Natan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €20M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.197 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Aleix Febas", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Angel Ortiz" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.393, "xg_contribution": 0.0707, "xg_multiplier": 0.9901, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Angel Ortiz", "role": "RB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aleix Febas (LWB) is evenly matched against Angel Ortiz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilaix Moriba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.565, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "xg_contribution": 0.0568, "xg_multiplier": 1.0694, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.503 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilaix Moriba (CM) is slightly favored against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Carreira", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "xg_contribution": 0.0794, "xg_multiplier": 0.9751, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.567 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Carreira (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Isco", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.375, "xg_contribution": 0.1125, "xg_multiplier": 0.9344, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.625 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isco (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Marcos Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.34, "xg_multiplier": 1.1556, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 }, { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (ST) is slightly favored against Marcos Alonso and Yoel Lago in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.340 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Troy Parrott", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.615, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.257, "xg_contribution": 0.2891, "xg_multiplier": 1.0831, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.743 }, { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.743 } ], "duel_analysis": "Troy Parrott (ST) is slightly favored against Marcos Alonso and Yoel Lago in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.289 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.462, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.272, "xg_contribution": 0.2268, "xg_multiplier": 1.1053, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728 }, { "player": "Yoel Lago", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.728 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (ST) is slightly favored against Marcos Alonso and Yoel Lago in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.227 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.523, "away_midfield_power": 0.467, "home_creative_power": 0.47, "away_creative_power": 0.492, "home_defensive_power": 0.491, "away_defensive_power": 0.384, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.528, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Aleix Febas", "Ilaix Moriba", "Sergio Carreira" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Isco", "Pablo Fornals", "Marc Roca" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Ilaix Moriba vs Pablo Fornals", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.013, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.994 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 1.08, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Williot Swedberg": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Diego Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Durán": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Aleix Febas": { "opponents": [ "Angel Ortiz", "Isco" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Carreira": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcos Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Isco", "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Troy Parrott", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yoel Lago": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Troy Parrott", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Galán": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Ferrán Jutglà", "Pablo Durán" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Pablo Durán", "Ilaix Moriba", "Sergio Carreira" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Angel Ortiz": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Isco": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Troy Parrott": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Yoel Lago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Roca": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Carreira" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Ferrán Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Durán" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ilaix Moriba vs Pablo Fornals will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.76, Away: 0.97. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "ha_source": "default", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9792, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9772, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.036, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0495, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9734, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9928, "home_midfield_factor": 1.013, "away_midfield_factor": 0.994, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5136, "away_avg_quality": 0.5712, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0576, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5325, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5947, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5224, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1379, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0759, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0441, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7572, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9054 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.013, "result": 0.9172 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.8713 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.002 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9485, "result": 0.9504 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9792, "result": 0.9306 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9734, "result": 0.9059 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.036, "result": 0.9419 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9419, "result": 0.9419, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1379, "factor": 0.9559, "pre": 0.9419, "result": 0.9003 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9003 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1899, "result": 1.0899 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2463, "result": 0.8976 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8976, "result": 0.898, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.898 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 0.898, "result": 0.9237, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.924 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.924 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.924, "result": 0.924, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.924 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9684, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.0943 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.994, "result": 1.0878 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.1422 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1422 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.941, "result": 1.0748 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9772, "result": 1.0503 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9928, "result": 1.0427 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0495, "result": 1.0922 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0922, "result": 1.0922, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1379, "factor": 1.0759, "pre": 1.0922, "result": 1.1751 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1751 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1926, "result": 1.3676 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2469, "result": 1.1121 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1121, "result": 1.112, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.112 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.112, "result": 1.0802, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.08 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.08 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.08, "result": 1.08, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.08 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1899, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1926, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Real Betis", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.246, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.924, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.08, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8976, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1121, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.924, "final_away_lambda": 1.08 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9485, "attack_index": 0.926, "defense_concede_index": 0.96, "form_multiplier": 0.971, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.42, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.47, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 1.81 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.941, "attack_index": 1.02, "defense_concede_index": 0.828, "form_multiplier": 1.029, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.56, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.27, "team_ppg": 1.81, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Celta vs Real Betis. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 0.898, Away 1.112). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 0.924, Away 1.080 (most likely score 0-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Celta Vigo", "away_squad": "Real Betis", "home_goals_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "away_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.246, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 0.924, "away_lambda": 1.08, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 0.898, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.112 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T14:07:00Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }