{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Liverpool", "away_team": "Brighton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0888, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0888, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0596, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Liverpool", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2018, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0888 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0793 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0672 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0668 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0596 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0236, "0-1": 0.0344, "0-2": 0.0264, "0-3": 0.0133, "0-4": 0.005, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0515, "1-1": 0.0793, "1-2": 0.0596, "1-3": 0.0301, "1-4": 0.0114, "1-5": 0.0034, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0587, "2-1": 0.0888, "2-2": 0.0672, "2-3": 0.0339, "2-4": 0.0128, "2-5": 0.0039, "2-6": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0441, "3-1": 0.0668, "3-2": 0.0506, "3-3": 0.0255, "3-4": 0.0097, "3-5": 0.0029, "3-6": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0249, "4-1": 0.0377, "4-2": 0.0285, "4-3": 0.0144, "4-4": 0.0054, "4-5": 0.0016, "5-0": 0.0112, "5-1": 0.017, "5-2": 0.0129, "5-3": 0.0065, "5-4": 0.0025, "5-5": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0042, "6-1": 0.0064, "6-2": 0.0048, "6-3": 0.0024, "6-4": 0.0009, "7-0": 0.0014, "7-1": 0.0021, "7-2": 0.0016, "7-3": 0.0008, "8-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5435, "draw": 0.2018, "away_win": 0.2547 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7262, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2738, "btts_yes": 0.6988, "btts_no": 0.3012, "home_clean_sheet": 0.22, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1048 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.01, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 7.13 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 7.01, "MCR": 6.97, "ATR": 6.87, "GK": 7.02 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Liverpool vs Brighton. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Liverpool 5W-1D-4L vs Brighton over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Alexander Isak (2), Charalampos Kostoulas", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Florian Wirtz vs Yasin Ayari). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.24, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 2.256, "away_lambda": 1.514, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "2-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0888, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5435, "draw": 0.2018, "away_win": 0.2547 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5435, "fair_spread": 0.742, "fair_total": 3.77, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 2.256, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.514, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7262, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6988, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.22, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1048, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alexander Isak (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.6338, "probability": 0.4694, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.3106, "probability": 0.267, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Florian Wirtz (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.2564, "probability": 0.2262, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Maxim De Cuyper (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.2515, "probability": 0.2224, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.77, "expected_total_shots": 32, "expected_total_passes": 1099, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.6, "possession_home_pct": 51.4, "possession_away_pct": 48.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5435, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.74 goals and fair total 3.77.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Brighton must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Liverpool chance creation leans on Alexander Isak against Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Alexander Isak (2); bench watchlist: Dominik Szoboszlai, Hugo Ekitiké, Rio Ngumoha.", "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Charalampos Kostoulas; bench watchlist: Yankuba Minteh, Pascal Struijk, Zadok Yohanna.", "Assist usage should flow through Cody Gakpo, Maxim De Cuyper; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.89 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Brighton is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Brighton wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Liverpool": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Alexander Isak": { "player_id": 823941, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 193, "market_value": 93000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6338, "goal_rate": 0.5429, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7946, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 7.1664, "dispossessed": 0.9449, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0288, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.921, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0731, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "opponent_faced": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.4694, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0719, "finishing_factor": 1.1804, "creation_factor": 0.8914, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363882, "match_date": "2026-10-17 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Liverpool", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Liverpool", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3273, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7524, "expected_assists": 0.0223, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363264, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.501, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363261, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2098, "expected_assists": 0.0504, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363254, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9922, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0868, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14024024, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4329, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1203, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 236, "combined_rank_score": 174.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 257.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 92.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7946, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alexander Isak", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Min Junyeong", "ranking": 231 }, { "player_name": "William Saliba", "ranking": 232 }, { "player_name": "Elliot Anderson", "ranking": 233 }, { "player_name": "Nikolai Ivanov", "ranking": 234 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Trincão", "ranking": 235 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aleix García", "ranking": 237 }, { "player_name": "Gerson", "ranking": 238 }, { "player_name": "Federico Botti", "ranking": 239 }, { "player_name": "Jeisson Vargas", "ranking": 240 }, { "player_name": "Léo Pereira", "ranking": 241 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 19, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0241, quality 0.891)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4215, "goals": 0.507, "goal_rate": 0.507, "shots_on_target": 1.1212, "total_shots": 2.5724, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.5965, "rating": 6.7946, "minutes": 79.96, "total_pass": 10.4489, "accurate_pass": 7.9068, "duels_won": 2.1657, "total_long_balls": 0.5873, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5332, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0158, "crosses_total": 0.2445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.878, "possession_lost": 7.1664, "dispossessed": 0.9449, "duels_lost": 3.242, "aerial_lost": 1.151, "total_contest": 1.3699, "won_contest": 0.6056, "ball_recovery": 0.7452, "challenges_lost": 0.066, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4085, "assists": 0.0293, "assist_rate": 0.0293, "interceptions": 0.1747, "tackles_won": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6338, "goal_rate": 0.5429, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.2072, "total_shots": 2.7709, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "key_pass": 0.5965, "rating": 6.7946, "minutes": 79.96, "total_pass": 10.4489, "accurate_pass": 7.9068, "duels_won": 2.1657, "total_long_balls": 0.5873, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5332, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0158, "crosses_total": 0.2401, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.878, "possession_lost": 7.1664, "dispossessed": 0.9449, "duels_lost": 3.242, "aerial_lost": 1.151, "total_contest": 1.3699, "won_contest": 0.6056, "ball_recovery": 0.7452, "challenges_lost": 0.066, "fouls": 0.3426, "fouls_drawn": 0.4172, "assist_rate": 0.0288, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1715, "tackles_won": 0.1771, "tackles": 0.2878, "clearances": 0.5158, "blocks": 0.0912, "big_chances_created": 0.0334, "big_chances_missed": 0.6021, 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0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "opponent_faced": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.4694, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0719, "finishing_factor": 1.1804, "creation_factor": 0.8914, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0719, "assist_rate": 0.0288, "provider_weight": 0.0665, "squad_weight_total": 1.4623, "weight_share": 0.0455, "creation_factor": 0.8914, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2999, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2999, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2694, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] }, "Cody Gakpo": { "player_id": 862967, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 193, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2705, "goal_rate": 0.1858, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2399, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 6.8519, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 11.6711, "dispossessed": 1.3126, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.4386, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 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4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 15, "aerial_won": 8, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 292, "combined_rank_score": 202.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 26.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0375, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 378.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8519, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cody Gakpo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Josue Caicedo", "ranking": 287 }, { "player_name": "Jamalidin Hodjaniyazov", "ranking": 288 }, { "player_name": "Marko Stanojević", "ranking": 289 }, { "player_name": "Mihail Stefan", "ranking": 290 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Barella", "ranking": 291 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nodirbek Abdurazzokov", "ranking": 293 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Słonina", "ranking": 294 }, { "player_name": "Reece James", "ranking": 295 }, { "player_name": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "ranking": 296 }, { "player_name": "Christian Pulišić", "ranking": 297 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.768, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", 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"match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1823, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 17.0013, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.4321, "accuratePass": 16.7727, "totalShots": 2.055 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1796189248561859, "model_output": 0.1796, "scale": "per match (raw)", 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"target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1699819564819336, "model_output": 0.17, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0665 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 0.17, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.282368 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.133804 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.071148 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.064617 }, { 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"totalShots", "margin": 0.065856 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043619 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.03787 } ], "others_margin": -0.117939 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.0780484676361084, "model_output": 2.078, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2009 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0639 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0312 } ], "others": -0.001, "total": 2.078, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.515512 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.200916 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.063868 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.04878 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031222 } ], "others_margin": -0.000952 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.1219596341252327, "model_output": 0.122, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0061 } ], "others": 0.0179, "total": 0.122, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.195637 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.148603 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.126316 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.057081 } ], "others_margin": 0.158727 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.5082736015319824, "model_output": 1.5083, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1451 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1071 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0955 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0413 } ], "others": 0.2331, "total": 1.5083, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.273764 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.151657 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.098831 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080579 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.032958 } ], "others_margin": 0.167737 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8518805503845215, "model_output": 6.8519, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 6.8519, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.064102 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056638 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.020066 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01718 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012561 } ], "others_margin": -0.006333 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1818, "goals": 0.172, "goal_rate": 0.172, "shots_on_target": 0.5734, "total_shots": 2.103, "expected_assists": 0.1234, "key_pass": 1.5264, "rating": 6.8519, "minutes": 84.27, "total_pass": 22.9261, "accurate_pass": 18.3076, "duels_won": 5.1845, "total_long_balls": 0.5901, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2859, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7475, "crosses_total": 1.4358, "crosses_accurate": 0.3059, "touches": 41.384, "possession_lost": 11.6711, "dispossessed": 1.3126, "duels_lost": 6.1933, "aerial_lost": 1.7367, "total_contest": 2.5114, "won_contest": 1.2125, "ball_recovery": 2.6845, "challenges_lost": 0.7346, "fouls": 1.2633, "fouls_drawn": 1.1918, "assists": 0.4379, "assist_rate": 0.4379, "interceptions": 1.0494, "tackles_won": 1.0282, "tackles": 1.3403, "clearances": 0.4898, "blocks": 0.0659, "big_chances_created": 0.2084, "big_chances_missed": 0.249, "xgot": 0.0976, "offsides": 1.1494, "ball_carries": 13.1153, "total_progression": 59.0802, "progressive_carries": 2.4295, "shots_off_target": 1.5296 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0085)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1818, "goals": 0.175, "goal_rate": 0.175, "shots_on_target": 0.573, "total_shots": 2.112, "expected_assists": 0.1234, "key_pass": 1.5264, "rating": 6.8519, "minutes": 84.27, "total_pass": 22.9261, "accurate_pass": 18.3076, "duels_won": 5.1845, "total_long_balls": 0.5901, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2859, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7475, 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"importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0255 } ], "others": -0.0351, "total": 0.7116, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.271898 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05885 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.040593 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.036334 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.03355 } ], "others_margin": -0.048208 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.716161727905273, "model_output": 6.7162, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0339, "total": 6.7162, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050165 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03252 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024872 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015677 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010825 } ], "others_margin": -0.033921 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0726, quality 0.892)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1725, "goals": 0.1806, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "shots_on_target": 0.6107, "total_shots": 1.4086, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "key_pass": 0.7633, "rating": 6.7162, "minutes": 76.0, "total_pass": 15.9306, "accurate_pass": 12.3052, "duels_won": 1.7814, "total_long_balls": 0.7713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0249, "crosses_total": 0.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5148, "possession_lost": 7.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.5621, "won_contest": 0.3013, "ball_recovery": 1.9596, "challenges_lost": 0.3544, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0633, "tackles": 1.0633, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4929, "xgot": 0.0219, "offsides": 0.4169, "ball_carries": 10.4706, "total_progression": 21.6194, "progressive_carries": 1.0726, "shots_off_target": 0.7979 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 97000000, "quality_factor": 0.8922, "boost_factor": 1.0726, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1725, "goals": 0.1806, "goal_rate": 0.1806, "shots_on_target": 0.6107, "total_shots": 1.4086, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "key_pass": 0.7633, "rating": 6.7162, "minutes": 76.0, "total_pass": 15.9306, "accurate_pass": 12.3052, "duels_won": 1.7814, "total_long_balls": 0.7713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0249, "crosses_total": 0.7088, 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0.206, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "opponent_faced": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0095, "skill_edge": 0.0125, "height_edge": -0.006, "attacker_skill": 0.8922, "defender_skill": 0.8645, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.839 }, { "player": "Luka Vušković", "market_value": 69000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.89 } ], "xg_override": 0.1741 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4086, "after": 1.422 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7979, "after": 0.8055 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6107, "after": 0.6165 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1741, "goal_rate": 0.1823, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.422, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "key_pass": 0.7633, "rating": 6.7162, "minutes": 76.0, "total_pass": 15.9306, "accurate_pass": 12.3052, "duels_won": 1.7814, "total_long_balls": 0.7713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0249, "crosses_total": 0.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5148, "possession_lost": 7.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.5621, "won_contest": 0.3013, "ball_recovery": 1.9596, "challenges_lost": 0.3544, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0633, "tackles": 1.0633, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4976, "xgot": 0.0221, "offsides": 0.4169, "ball_carries": 10.4706, "total_progression": 21.6194, "progressive_carries": 1.0726, "shots_off_target": 0.8055, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0095, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "opponent_faced": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.244, "goal_rate": 0.1823, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6165, "total_shots": 1.422, "expected_assists": 0.1524, "key_pass": 0.7633, "rating": 6.7162, "minutes": 76.0, "total_pass": 15.9306, "accurate_pass": 12.3052, "duels_won": 1.7814, "total_long_balls": 0.7713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0249, "crosses_total": 0.7088, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.5148, "possession_lost": 7.7834, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.6153, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.5621, "won_contest": 0.3013, "ball_recovery": 1.9596, "challenges_lost": 0.3544, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0633, "tackles": 1.0633, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4976, "xgot": 0.031, "offsides": 0.4169, "ball_carries": 10.4706, "total_progression": 21.6194, "progressive_carries": 1.0726, "shots_off_target": 0.8055, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0095, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "opponent_faced": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Luka Vušković", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0366, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { 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defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yasin Ayari", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0709, "skill_edge": 0.0322, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.8893, "defender_skill": 0.8177, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "market_value": 41000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8177 } ], "xg_override": 0.0947 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1776, "after": 1.2611 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8315, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8164, "after": 0.8743 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3612, "after": 0.3868 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1017, "after": 0.1089 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0884, "after": 0.0947 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7961, "expected_assists": 0.0766, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0947, "goal_rate": 0.1089, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3868, "total_shots": 1.2611, "rating": 6.9431, "minutes": 87.06, "total_pass": 48.6883, "accurate_pass": 42.5947, "duels_won": 4.4431, "total_long_balls": 4.0563, "accurate_long_balls": 2.46, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2635, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6609, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9339, "crosses_total": 0.4704, "crosses_accurate": 0.0437, "touches": 62.8304, "possession_lost": 9.7621, "dispossessed": 0.813, "duels_lost": 5.2361, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "interceptions": 0.5504, "tackles_won": 1.2215, "tackles": 2.2653, "clearances": 1.5952, 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lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7961, "expected_assists": 0.1489, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1327, "goal_rate": 0.1089, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3868, "total_shots": 1.2611, "rating": 6.9431, "minutes": 87.06, "total_pass": 48.6883, "accurate_pass": 42.5947, "duels_won": 4.4431, "total_long_balls": 4.0563, "accurate_long_balls": 2.46, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2635, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6609, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.9339, "crosses_total": 0.4704, "crosses_accurate": 0.0437, "touches": 62.8304, "possession_lost": 9.7621, "dispossessed": 0.813, "duels_lost": 5.2361, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.1948, "interceptions": 0.5504, "tackles_won": 1.2215, "tackles": 2.2653, "clearances": 1.5952, "total_contest": 1.2009, "won_contest": 0.5309, "challenges_lost": 1.0192, "fouls": 1.5761, "fouls_drawn": 0.9757, 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regressor (M_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Liverpool, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.9090909090909091)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6811, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.317, "total_shots": 0.9822, "rating": 6.8428, "minutes": 79.48, "total_pass": 41.7705, "accurate_pass": 36.0788, "duels_won": 4.4289, "total_long_balls": 1.6475, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9388, "total_own_half_passes": 15.8944, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.3097, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7691, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.0302, "possession_lost": 9.6345, "dispossessed": 1.4254, "duels_lost": 4.0451, "aerial_won": 0.6962, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0383, "total": 0.317, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142134 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077886 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.049075 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.046258 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.032697 } ], "others_margin": -0.113906 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9821773767471313, "model_output": 0.9822, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1469 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.08, "total": 0.9822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146873 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087566 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060872 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.032254 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.016246 } ], "others_margin": -0.079966 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.842801094055176, "model_output": 6.8428, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 6.8428, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.031539 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020686 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.00991 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.007629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.00568 } ], "others_margin": -0.013523 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.883)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6895, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "assists": 0.0653, "assist_rate": 0.0653, "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.3209, "total_shots": 0.9943, "rating": 6.8428, "minutes": 79.48, "total_pass": 42.2843, "accurate_pass": 36.5226, "duels_won": 4.4834, "total_long_balls": 1.6678, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9503, "total_own_half_passes": 16.0899, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.4857, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.1944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.0369, "crosses_total": 0.2281, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 57.7317, "possession_lost": 9.753, "dispossessed": 1.4429, "duels_lost": 4.0949, "aerial_won": 0.7048, "aerial_lost": 0.3872, "interceptions": 1.3939, "tackles_won": 1.0204, "tackles": 1.6372, "clearances": 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"name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.393899 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122857 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.081022 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.035507 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.03099 } ], "others_margin": -0.058237 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5310255885124207, "model_output": 0.531, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 0.531, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06142 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025383 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021982 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013063 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.012619 } ], "others_margin": -0.005371 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656173229217529, "model_output": 6.6562, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0548, "total": 6.6562, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022588 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014904 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014382 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011586 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010599 } ], "others_margin": -0.054899 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7062, "tackles": 1.3568, "tackles_won": 0.8287, "clearances": 2.682, "aerial_won": 0.8653, "total_shots": 0.5356, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2725, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5764, "fouls_drawn": 1.3472, "blocks": 0.3943, "goals": 0.0626, 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"big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 10.5608, "total_progression": 41.7123, "progressive_carries": 1.2018, "key_pass": 0.5676, "shots_off_target": 0.3803 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7092, "tackles": 1.3568, "tackles_won": 0.8306, "clearances": 2.682, "aerial_won": 0.8653, "total_shots": 0.5402, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5763, "fouls_drawn": 1.3445, "blocks": 0.3943, "goals": 0.062, "goal_rate": 0.062, "assists": 0.0253, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 10.5608, "total_progression": 41.7123, "progressive_carries": 1.2018, "key_pass": 0.5676, "shots_off_target": 0.3803, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7092, "tackles": 1.3568, "tackles_won": 0.8306, "clearances": 2.682, "aerial_won": 0.8653, "total_shots": 0.5402, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5763, "fouls_drawn": 1.3445, "blocks": 0.3943, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.1585, "big_chances_created": 0.0335, "xgot": 0.0201, "ball_carries": 10.5608, 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"finishing_factor": 1.1953, "creation_factor": 1.1205 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0437, "after": 0.0612 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0172, "after": 0.0334 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7092, "tackles": 1.3568, "tackles_won": 0.8306, "clearances": 2.682, "aerial_won": 0.8653, "total_shots": 0.5402, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, "challenges_lost": 0.2154, "fouls": 1.5763, "fouls_drawn": 1.3445, "blocks": 0.3943, "goal_rate": 0.062, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0253, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0612, "expected_assists": 0.0334, 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"effective_weight": 0.3184, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3042 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7092, "tackles": 1.3568, "tackles_won": 0.8306, "clearances": 2.682, "aerial_won": 0.8653, "total_shots": 0.5402, "rating": 6.6562, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 37.1663, "accurate_pass": 30.4357, "duels_won": 3.7919, "total_long_balls": 3.3474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.255, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1747, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9964, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4392, "crosses_total": 2.2708, "crosses_accurate": 0.4669, "touches": 56.6651, "possession_lost": 12.051, "dispossessed": 0.5442, "duels_lost": 3.9235, "aerial_lost": 1.1493, "total_contest": 0.8149, "won_contest": 0.3622, "ball_recovery": 2.9425, 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"weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2999, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2999, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2694, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "player_id": 151545, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 195, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.324, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 68, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 40, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38, "total_opp_half_passes": 37, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 88, "possession_lost": 8.8451, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, 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"predicted": 0.5967003107070923, "model_output": 0.5967, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0124, "total": 0.5967, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.042025 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039976 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.031725 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.022013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021509 } ], "others_margin": 0.012346 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.3240227699279785, "model_output": 7.324, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1024 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0847 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": 0.2267, "total": 7.324, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.102361 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084685 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.050969 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.043411 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030701 } ], "others_margin": 0.226764 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.1621 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1621, "tackles": 0.8872, "tackles_won": 0.5719, "clearances": 6.6349, "aerial_won": 2.9225, "total_shots": 0.6018, "rating": 7.324, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 76.8236, "accurate_pass": 68.2348, "duels_won": 4.4007, "total_long_balls": 9.0704, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4409, "total_own_half_passes": 39.5009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.9548, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.28, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.9865, "possession_lost": 8.8451, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.7746, "aerial_lost": 1.3611, "total_contest": 0.0021, "won_contest": 0.0021, "ball_recovery": 2.902, "challenges_lost": 0.0569, "fouls": 0.4075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2259, "blocks": 0.588, "goals": 0.1966, "goal_rate": 0.1966, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0912, 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"fouls_drawn": 0.2259, "blocks": 0.588, "goal_rate": 0.1966, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0912, "expected_assists": 0.032, "shots_on_target": 0.3393, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1267, "ball_carries": 21.4446, "total_progression": 92.9756, "progressive_carries": 0.9932, "key_pass": 0.2614, "shots_off_target": 0.2603, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1621, "tackles": 0.8872, "tackles_won": 0.5719, "clearances": 6.6349, "aerial_won": 2.9225, "total_shots": 0.6018, "rating": 7.324, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 76.8236, "accurate_pass": 68.2348, "duels_won": 4.4007, "total_long_balls": 9.0704, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4409, "total_own_half_passes": 39.5009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.9548, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.28, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.9865, "possession_lost": 8.8451, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.7746, "aerial_lost": 1.3611, "total_contest": 0.0021, "won_contest": 0.0021, "ball_recovery": 2.902, "challenges_lost": 0.0569, "fouls": 0.4075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2259, "blocks": 0.588, "goal_rate": 0.1966, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1278, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "shots_on_target": 0.3393, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1776, "ball_carries": 21.4446, "total_progression": 92.9756, "progressive_carries": 0.9932, "key_pass": 0.2614, "shots_off_target": 0.2603, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0912, "after": 0.1278 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.032, "after": 0.0622 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1621, "tackles": 0.8872, "tackles_won": 0.5719, "clearances": 6.6349, "aerial_won": 2.9225, "total_shots": 0.6018, "rating": 7.324, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 76.8236, "accurate_pass": 68.2348, "duels_won": 4.4007, "total_long_balls": 9.0704, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4409, "total_own_half_passes": 39.5009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.9548, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.28, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.9865, "possession_lost": 8.8451, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.7746, "aerial_lost": 1.3611, "total_contest": 0.0021, "won_contest": 0.0021, "ball_recovery": 2.902, "challenges_lost": 0.0569, "fouls": 0.4075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2259, "blocks": 0.588, "goal_rate": 0.1966, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1278, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "shots_on_target": 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1621, "tackles": 0.8872, "tackles_won": 0.5719, "clearances": 6.6349, "aerial_won": 2.9225, "total_shots": 0.6018, "rating": 7.324, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 76.8236, "accurate_pass": 68.2348, "duels_won": 4.4007, "total_long_balls": 9.0704, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4409, "total_own_half_passes": 39.5009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.9548, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.3227, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.28, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.9865, "possession_lost": 8.8451, "dispossessed": 0.0002, "duels_lost": 1.7746, "aerial_lost": 1.3611, "total_contest": 0.0021, "won_contest": 0.0021, "ball_recovery": 2.902, "challenges_lost": 0.0569, "fouls": 0.4075, "fouls_drawn": 0.2259, "blocks": 0.588, "goal_rate": 0.1966, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1278, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "shots_on_target": 0.3393, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1776, "ball_carries": 21.4446, "total_progression": 92.9756, "progressive_carries": 0.9932, "key_pass": 0.2614, "shots_off_target": 0.2603, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.12, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.12, "goal_rate": 0.1966, "scorer_weight": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0542, quality 0.866)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2066, "tackles": 1.6892, "tackles_won": 1.1835, "clearances": 3.2713, "aerial_won": 1.596, "total_shots": 0.442, "rating": 7.1743, "minutes": 86.45, "total_pass": 75.1727, "accurate_pass": 67.7081, "duels_won": 5.9772, "total_long_balls": 8.2386, "accurate_long_balls": 5.1235, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2685, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.5201, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.9043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.1881, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.6044, "possession_lost": 9.5819, "dispossessed": 0.2054, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 0.5853, "total_contest": 0.5645, "won_contest": 0.5645, "ball_recovery": 4.6732, "challenges_lost": 0.2054, "fouls": 1.085, "fouls_drawn": 0.9446, "blocks": 0.9058, "goals": 0.0, 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37.9043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.1881, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.6044, "possession_lost": 9.5819, "dispossessed": 0.2054, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 0.5853, "total_contest": 0.5645, "won_contest": 0.5645, "ball_recovery": 4.6732, "challenges_lost": 0.2054, "fouls": 1.0682, "fouls_drawn": 0.9743, "blocks": 0.9058, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.7816, "total_progression": 102.9514, "progressive_carries": 0.7419, "key_pass": 0.5284, "shots_off_target": 0.442 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0347, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9606, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2066, "after": 1.248 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", 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34.1881, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.6044, "possession_lost": 9.5819, "dispossessed": 0.2054, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 0.5853, "total_contest": 0.5645, "won_contest": 0.5645, "ball_recovery": 4.6732, "challenges_lost": 0.2054, "fouls": 1.0682, "fouls_drawn": 0.9743, "blocks": 0.9058, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.7816, "total_progression": 102.9514, "progressive_carries": 0.7419, "key_pass": 0.5284, "shots_off_target": 0.442, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical 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"dispossessed": 0.2054, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 0.5853, "total_contest": 0.5645, "won_contest": 0.5645, "ball_recovery": 4.6732, "challenges_lost": 0.2054, "fouls": 1.0682, "fouls_drawn": 0.9743, "blocks": 0.9058, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0273, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.7816, "total_progression": 102.9514, "progressive_carries": 0.7419, "key_pass": 0.5284, "shots_off_target": 0.442, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.248, "tackles": 1.6892, "tackles_won": 1.1841, "clearances": 3.2713, "aerial_won": 1.596, "total_shots": 0.442, "rating": 7.1743, "minutes": 86.45, "total_pass": 75.1727, "accurate_pass": 67.7081, "duels_won": 5.9772, "total_long_balls": 8.2386, "accurate_long_balls": 5.1235, "total_own_half_passes": 37.2685, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.5201, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.9043, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34.1881, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 87.6044, "possession_lost": 9.5819, "dispossessed": 0.2054, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 0.5853, "total_contest": 0.5645, 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"params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0273, "after": 0.0531 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin": 0.462 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125092 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.120747 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079379 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049298 } ], "others_margin": 0.043719 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4579612910747528, "model_output": 0.458, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0956 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": 0.003, "total": 0.458, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.095563 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052014 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026837 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.012558 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.011934 } ], "others_margin": 0.002917 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.872827529907227, "model_output": 6.8728, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0503 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 6.8728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.050255 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040613 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.017581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010315 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009194 } ], "others_margin": -0.001242 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8638, "tackles": 1.5572, "tackles_won": 0.9386, "clearances": 3.2686, "aerial_won": 2.8671, "total_shots": 0.4618, "rating": 6.8728, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.5309, "accurate_pass": 43.6571, "duels_won": 5.8659, "total_long_balls": 3.5817, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5311, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0431, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.614, "crosses_total": 1.3589, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1334, "possession_lost": 10.0241, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 2.2816, "aerial_lost": 1.2727, "total_contest": 0.5807, "won_contest": 0.4121, "ball_recovery": 3.7429, "challenges_lost": 0.0748, "fouls": 0.5287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1339, "blocks": 0.3495, "goals": 0.107, 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0.5385 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8616, "tackles": 1.5572, "tackles_won": 0.9362, "clearances": 3.2686, "aerial_won": 2.8671, "total_shots": 0.4614, "rating": 6.8728, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.5309, "accurate_pass": 43.6571, "duels_won": 5.8659, "total_long_balls": 3.5817, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5311, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0431, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.614, "crosses_total": 1.3554, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1334, "possession_lost": 10.0241, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 2.2816, "aerial_lost": 1.2727, "total_contest": 0.5807, "won_contest": 0.4121, "ball_recovery": 3.7429, "challenges_lost": 0.0748, "fouls": 0.5385, "fouls_drawn": 0.1336, "blocks": 0.3495, "goals": 0.1067, "goal_rate": 0.1067, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "shots_on_target": 0.1528, "big_chances_created": 0.1001, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 11.041, "total_progression": 32.783, "progressive_carries": 0.2654, "key_pass": 0.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.3086 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8616, "tackles": 1.5572, "tackles_won": 0.9362, "clearances": 3.2686, "aerial_won": 2.8671, "total_shots": 0.4614, "rating": 6.8728, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.5309, "accurate_pass": 43.6571, "duels_won": 5.8659, "total_long_balls": 3.5817, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5311, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0431, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.614, "crosses_total": 1.3554, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1334, "possession_lost": 10.0241, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 2.2816, "aerial_lost": 1.2727, "total_contest": 0.5807, "won_contest": 0.4121, "ball_recovery": 3.7429, "challenges_lost": 0.0748, "fouls": 0.5385, "fouls_drawn": 0.1336, "blocks": 0.3495, "goals": 0.1067, "goal_rate": 0.1067, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "shots_on_target": 0.1528, "big_chances_created": 0.1001, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 11.041, "total_progression": 32.783, "progressive_carries": 0.2654, "key_pass": 0.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.3086, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8616, "tackles": 1.5572, "tackles_won": 0.9362, "clearances": 3.2686, "aerial_won": 2.8671, "total_shots": 0.4614, "rating": 6.8728, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.5309, "accurate_pass": 43.6571, "duels_won": 5.8659, "total_long_balls": 3.5817, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5311, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0431, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.614, "crosses_total": 1.3554, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1334, "possession_lost": 10.0241, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 2.2816, "aerial_lost": 1.2727, "total_contest": 0.5807, "won_contest": 0.4121, "ball_recovery": 3.7429, "challenges_lost": 0.0748, "fouls": 0.5385, "fouls_drawn": 0.1336, "blocks": 0.3495, "goal_rate": 0.1067, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "shots_on_target": 0.1528, "big_chances_created": 0.1001, "xgot": 0.0761, "ball_carries": 11.041, "total_progression": 32.783, "progressive_carries": 0.2654, "key_pass": 0.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.3086, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8616, "tackles": 1.5572, "tackles_won": 0.9362, "clearances": 3.2686, "aerial_won": 2.8671, "total_shots": 0.4614, "rating": 6.8728, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.5309, "accurate_pass": 43.6571, "duels_won": 5.8659, "total_long_balls": 3.5817, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5311, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0431, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.614, "crosses_total": 1.3554, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1334, "possession_lost": 10.0241, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 2.2816, "aerial_lost": 1.2727, "total_contest": 0.5807, "won_contest": 0.4121, "ball_recovery": 3.7429, "challenges_lost": 0.0748, "fouls": 0.5385, "fouls_drawn": 0.1336, "blocks": 0.3495, "goal_rate": 0.1067, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0352, "expected_assists": 0.0624, "shots_on_target": 0.1528, "big_chances_created": 0.1001, "xgot": 0.1066, "ball_carries": 11.041, "total_progression": 32.783, "progressive_carries": 0.2654, "key_pass": 0.1847, "shots_off_target": 0.3086, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0251, "after": 0.0352 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.0624 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"global_player_rank": 1007, "fifa_rank": 762.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8616, "tackles": 1.5572, "tackles_won": 0.9362, "clearances": 3.2686, "aerial_won": 2.8671, "total_shots": 0.4614, "rating": 6.8728, "minutes": 78.66, "total_pass": 49.5309, "accurate_pass": 43.6571, "duels_won": 5.8659, "total_long_balls": 3.5817, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5311, "total_own_half_passes": 26.3378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0431, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.614, "crosses_total": 1.3554, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 66.1334, "possession_lost": 10.0241, "dispossessed": 0.2651, "duels_lost": 2.2816, "aerial_lost": 1.2727, "total_contest": 0.5807, "won_contest": 0.4121, "ball_recovery": 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{ "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.018396 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.017469 } ], "others_margin": 0.00266 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0016, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, "aerial_won": 0.3231, "sweeper_actions": 0.9672, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9672, "saves_inside_box": 1.5212, "possession_lost": 6.8731, "duels_won": 0.4274, "duels_lost": 0.1481, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.1184, "fouls_drawn": 0.1636, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6391 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0038, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0120)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9895, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, "aerial_won": 0.3231, "sweeper_actions": 0.9672, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9672, "saves_inside_box": 1.5212, "possession_lost": 6.8731, "duels_won": 0.4274, "duels_lost": 0.1481, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.123, "fouls_drawn": 0.1616, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6391 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.012, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Liverpool" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.0016, "after": 2.9895 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9895, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, "aerial_won": 0.3231, "sweeper_actions": 0.9672, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9672, "saves_inside_box": 1.5212, "possession_lost": 6.8731, "duels_won": 0.4274, "duels_lost": 0.1481, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.123, "fouls_drawn": 0.1616, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6391 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9895, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, "aerial_won": 0.3231, "sweeper_actions": 0.9672, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9672, "saves_inside_box": 1.5212, "possession_lost": 6.8731, "duels_won": 0.4274, "duels_lost": 0.1481, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.123, "fouls_drawn": 0.1616, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6391, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5724, "shots_faced": 14.9, "expected_saves": 3.64, "high_pressure_saves": 1.26, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.5724 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9895, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, "aerial_won": 0.3231, "sweeper_actions": 0.9672, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9672, "saves_inside_box": 1.5212, "possession_lost": 6.8731, "duels_won": 0.4274, "duels_lost": 0.1481, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.123, "fouls_drawn": 0.1616, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6391, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5724, "shots_faced": 14.9, "expected_saves": 3.64, "high_pressure_saves": 1.26, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9895, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, "aerial_won": 0.3231, "sweeper_actions": 0.9672, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9672, "saves_inside_box": 1.5212, "possession_lost": 6.8731, "duels_won": 0.4274, "duels_lost": 0.1481, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.123, "fouls_drawn": 0.1616, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6391, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5724, "shots_faced": 14.4, "expected_saves": 3.53, "high_pressure_saves": 1.21, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 14.9, "after": 14.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.64, "after": 3.53 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.26, "after": 1.21 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9895, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, "aerial_won": 0.3231, "sweeper_actions": 0.9672, "sweeper_accurate": 0.9672, "saves_inside_box": 1.5212, "possession_lost": 6.8731, "duels_won": 0.4274, "duels_lost": 0.1481, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.123, "fouls_drawn": 0.1616, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2035, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6391, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.5724, "shots_faced": 14.4, "expected_saves": 3.53, "high_pressure_saves": 1.21, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Pascal Groß", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.4352, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.7481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7481, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3042 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.7481, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3184, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3042 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9895, "goals_prevented": 0.1752, "rating": 7.1338, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.3056, "accurate_pass": 24.7591, "total_long_balls": 11.2058, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9356, "touches": 42.5716, "clearances": 1.6996, "ball_recovery": 9.4975, "high_claims": 1.4151, "punches": 1.0035, 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"contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0913, "total": 6.5987, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033418 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017468 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015065 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014692 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.014375 } ], "others_margin": -0.091373 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2476, "tackles": 0.5584, "tackles_won": 0.3805, "clearances": 0.5096, "aerial_won": 0.1785, "total_shots": 0.1763, "rating": 6.5987, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 7.0824, "accurate_pass": 5.7356, "duels_won": 1.0895, "total_long_balls": 0.3575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2511, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9594, "crosses_total": 0.9909, "crosses_accurate": 0.3612, "touches": 12.6669, "possession_lost": 3.6053, "dispossessed": 0.4076, "duels_lost": 1.2352, "aerial_lost": 0.3809, "total_contest": 0.6418, "won_contest": 0.2501, "ball_recovery": 1.0248, "challenges_lost": 0.2215, "fouls": 0.1333, "fouls_drawn": 0.2957, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0061, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "shots_on_target": 0.0349, "big_chances_created": 0.4048, "xgot": 0.0032, "ball_carries": 1.7822, "total_progression": 11.1793, "progressive_carries": 0.2705, "key_pass": 0.5552, "shots_off_target": 0.1414, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 799, "fifa_rank": 516.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Curtis Jones": { "player_id": 927353, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 185, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9489, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 1.6137, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.045, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 11, 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"clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0857, "expected_assists": 0.0557, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 61, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024024, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023939, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 101, "accurate_pass": 88, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024005, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025035, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.196, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 79, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 16 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024000, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, 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{ "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2834 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.2154, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.283448 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024882 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.024793 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021146 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.018075 } ], "others_margin": -0.025049 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.948934078216553, "model_output": 6.9489, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0442 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0291 } ], "others": 0.0461, "total": 6.9489, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.059859 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045537 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.044158 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029994 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029143 } ], "others_margin": 0.046186 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.357, "tackles": 0.7018, "tackles_won": 0.4976, "clearances": 0.9195, "aerial_won": 0.2315, "total_shots": 0.2173, "rating": 6.9489, "minutes": 32.52, "total_pass": 22.8654, "accurate_pass": 21.117, "duels_won": 1.6118, "total_long_balls": 0.9516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.503, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0737, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.432, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.7915, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6849, "crosses_total": 0.1927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0232, "touches": 30.8772, "possession_lost": 3.554, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 1.8885, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "total_contest": 0.1434, "won_contest": 0.1202, "ball_recovery": 2.4784, "challenges_lost": 0.9595, "fouls": 0.0576, "fouls_drawn": 0.4471, "blocks": 0.1635, "goals": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6061 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3895 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0918 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0534 } ], "others": -0.0673, "total": 0.8107, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.389497 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.091845 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.065683 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05335 } ], "others_margin": -0.067369 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.084624767303467, "model_output": 7.0846, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 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"minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1566, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2976, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0122 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.58 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0824, "after": 0.067 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1389, "after": 0.1566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1659 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0454 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0333 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": 0.0276, "total": 0.3073, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.717258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.252278 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.151621 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.123602 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.042605 } ], "others_margin": 0.094223 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6702220439910889, "model_output": 1.6702, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.605 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1673 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0907 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0816 } ], "others": 0.4464, "total": 1.6702, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.711347 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.604962 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.16733 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9362, "expected_assists": 0.1325, "assists": 0.1656, "assist_rate": 0.1656, "expected_goals": 0.0882, "goals": 0.1435, "goal_rate": 0.1435, "shots_on_target": 0.3093, "total_shots": 1.6809, "rating": 6.9946, "minutes": 29.76, "total_pass": 21.6159, "accurate_pass": 16.9471, "duels_won": 0.9127, "total_long_balls": 1.1469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7248, "total_own_half_passes": 3.9591, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.194, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7532, "crosses_total": 2.6823, "crosses_accurate": 1.0064, "touches": 30.9474, "possession_lost": 9.1994, "dispossessed": 0.4624, "duels_lost": 1.5006, "aerial_won": 0.2282, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.2282, "clearances": 0.0, 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.1787, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3834, "total_shots": 1.2544, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "key_pass": 0.4864, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.156, "goal_rate": 0.1787, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3834, "total_shots": 1.2544, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "key_pass": 0.4864, "rating": 6.7025, "minutes": 27.04, "total_pass": 8.6294, "accurate_pass": 7.1246, "duels_won": 1.8146, "total_long_balls": 0.1318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5833, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0785, "crosses_total": 0.5306, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1767, "possession_lost": 5.0555, "dispossessed": 0.1379, "duels_lost": 3.7937, "aerial_lost": 1.0406, "total_contest": 2.6656, "won_contest": 0.8933, "ball_recovery": 0.9465, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8787, "fouls_drawn": 0.3842, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0951, "tackles": 0.2502, "clearances": 0.7174, "blocks": 0.1318, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1227, "ball_carries": 6.1647, "total_progression": 26.7617, "progressive_carries": 1.2102, "shots_off_target": 0.8708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.638, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0187, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.638 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1745, "after": 0.156 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0453, "after": 0.0562 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0342, "total": 0.2583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.645312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.271782 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.133547 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.081926 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.047101 } ], "others_margin": 0.142575 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8106928467750549, "model_output": 0.8107, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6061 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3895 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0918 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0657 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0534 } ], "others": -0.0673, "total": 0.8107, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.606076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.389497 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.091845 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.065683 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05335 } ], "others_margin": -0.067369 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.084624767303467, "model_output": 7.0846, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1203 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.101 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0825 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0484 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": 0.0471, "total": 7.0846, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.12032 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101005 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082498 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.048402 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038376 } ], "others_margin": 0.047161 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.890)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1857, "expected_assists": 0.1111, "assists": 0.1129, "assist_rate": 0.1129, "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.1428, "goal_rate": 0.1428, "shots_on_target": 0.2616, "total_shots": 0.8209, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 56.8679, "accurate_pass": 49.6516, "duels_won": 3.0359, "total_long_balls": 4.8433, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3591, "total_own_half_passes": 23.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.6686, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.5368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.983, "crosses_total": 6.7658, "crosses_accurate": 2.0534, "touches": 80.0337, "possession_lost": 15.2372, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 5.6696, "aerial_won": 0.5843, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 0.8622, "tackles_won": 0.6404, "tackles": 1.3964, "clearances": 1.274, "total_contest": 1.0035, "won_contest": 0.3942, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 1.9008, "fouls_drawn": 0.661, "blocks": 0.3078, "big_chances_created": 0.8997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0841, "xgot": 0.2927, "ball_carries": 19.4866, "total_progression": 79.2674, "progressive_carries": 1.7112, "shots_off_target": 0.5593 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 91000000, "quality_factor": 0.8895, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assists": 0.1412, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goals": 0.1786, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.76, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2507, "appearance_probability": 0.58 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assists": 0.1412, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goals": 0.1786, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1389, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.3661, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.26 (squad xG sum 1.6098, xG scale 1.4014, xA scale 1.9439, team xA 1.47 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1566, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2976, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0122 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.256, "squad_xg_sum": 1.6098, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7544, "team_expected_assists": 1.4664, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4014, "xa_scale": 1.9439, "opponent_lambda": 1.514, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.58 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0824, "after": 0.067 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1389, "after": 0.1566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1566, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2976, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0122, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 78, "fifa_rank": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1566, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2976, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0633, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0122, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0633, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "scorer_weight": 0.0838, "squad_weight_total": 2.4352, "weight_share": 0.0344, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.7481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7481, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3042 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alexander Isak", "weight": 0.7481, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.3184, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3042 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4829, "expected_assists": 0.1566, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.1786, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3272, "total_shots": 1.0267, "rating": 7.0846, "minutes": 23.76, "total_pass": 71.1226, "accurate_pass": 62.0974, "duels_won": 3.7969, "total_long_balls": 6.0573, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2011, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1792, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.8494, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.248, "crosses_total": 8.4617, "crosses_accurate": 2.5681, "touches": 100.0952, "possession_lost": 19.0566, "dispossessed": 1.0201, "duels_lost": 7.0908, "aerial_won": 0.7308, "aerial_lost": 1.3744, "interceptions": 1.0783, "tackles_won": 0.8009, "tackles": 1.7464, "clearances": 1.5933, "total_contest": 1.255, "won_contest": 0.493, "challenges_lost": 0.765, "fouls": 2.3773, "fouls_drawn": 0.8267, "blocks": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 1.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.1052, "xgot": 0.2976, "ball_carries": 24.3712, "total_progression": 99.1368, "progressive_carries": 2.1401, "shots_off_target": 0.6995, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.58, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.76, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.737, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0633, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1372, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0122, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1372, "assist_rate": 0.1412, "provider_weight": 0.1585, "squad_weight_total": 1.4623, "weight_share": 0.1084, "creation_factor": 1.0122, "appearance_weight": 0.58, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cody Gakpo", "weight": 0.2999, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2999, "runner_up": "Florian Wirtz", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2694, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Alexander Isak" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.26, "expected_assists": 1.47, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 549, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } }, "Brighton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bart Verbruggen": { "player_id": 994363, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 7.0191, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 30, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 47, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.9941, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.5288, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.0359, "shots_faced": 21.4, "expected_saves": 5.23, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8817, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 7.0191, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1996, "accurate_pass": 29.9806, "total_long_balls": 15.8836, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9809, "touches": 47.4641, "clearances": 0.7794, "ball_recovery": 7.3836, "high_claims": 0.7023, "punches": 0.9941, "aerial_won": 0.4084, "sweeper_actions": 0.84, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7726, "saves_inside_box": 2.2643, "possession_lost": 10.5288, "duels_won": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 0.114, "total_contest": 0.0003, "won_contest": 0.0003, "fouls": 0.0075, "fouls_drawn": 0.1306, "total_own_half_passes": 27.352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1604, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.0359, "shots_faced": 19.3, "expected_saves": 4.72, "high_pressure_saves": 1.63, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8817, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 7.0191, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1996, "accurate_pass": 29.9806, "total_long_balls": 15.8836, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9809, "touches": 47.4641, "clearances": 0.7794, "ball_recovery": 7.3836, "high_claims": 0.7023, "punches": 0.9941, "aerial_won": 0.4084, "sweeper_actions": 0.84, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7726, "saves_inside_box": 2.2643, "possession_lost": 10.5288, "duels_won": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 0.114, "total_contest": 0.0003, "won_contest": 0.0003, "fouls": 0.0075, "fouls_drawn": 0.1306, "total_own_half_passes": 27.352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1604, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.0359, "shots_faced": 21.4, "expected_saves": 5.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 19.3, "after": 21.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.72, "after": 5.23 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.63, "after": 1.8 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8817, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 7.0191, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1996, "accurate_pass": 29.9806, "total_long_balls": 15.8836, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9809, "touches": 47.4641, "clearances": 0.7794, "ball_recovery": 7.3836, "high_claims": 0.7023, "punches": 0.9941, "aerial_won": 0.4084, "sweeper_actions": 0.84, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7726, "saves_inside_box": 2.2643, "possession_lost": 10.5288, "duels_won": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 0.114, "total_contest": 0.0003, "won_contest": 0.0003, "fouls": 0.0075, "fouls_drawn": 0.1306, "total_own_half_passes": 27.352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1604, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.0359, "shots_faced": 21.4, "expected_saves": 5.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"ball_recovery": 7.3836, "high_claims": 0.7023, "punches": 0.9941, "aerial_won": 0.4084, "sweeper_actions": 0.84, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7726, "saves_inside_box": 2.2643, "possession_lost": 10.5288, "duels_won": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 0.114, "total_contest": 0.0003, "won_contest": 0.0003, "fouls": 0.0075, "fouls_drawn": 0.1306, "total_own_half_passes": 27.352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1604, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.0359, "shots_faced": 21.4, "expected_saves": 5.23, "high_pressure_saves": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.6849, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3667, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3667, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2603 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8817, "goals_prevented": -0.0142, "rating": 7.0191, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.1996, "accurate_pass": 29.9806, "total_long_balls": 15.8836, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9809, "touches": 47.4641, "clearances": 0.7794, "ball_recovery": 7.3836, "high_claims": 0.7023, "punches": 0.9941, "aerial_won": 0.4084, "sweeper_actions": 0.84, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7726, "saves_inside_box": 2.2643, "possession_lost": 10.5288, "duels_won": 0.5426, "duels_lost": 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"effective_weight": 0.3144, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2741, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "player_id": 825844, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 174, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 9.3828, "dispossessed": 0.2019, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, 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"name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 6.7721, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029144 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023025 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010955 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010543 } ], "others_margin": -0.022481 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7653, "tackles": 1.2032, "tackles_won": 0.7919, "clearances": 2.457, "aerial_won": 0.7727, "total_shots": 0.7824, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7848, "accurate_pass": 33.5222, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 2.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8014, "crosses_total": 1.6545, "crosses_accurate": 0.1995, "touches": 55.4041, "possession_lost": 9.3828, "dispossessed": 0.2019, "duels_lost": 2.8254, "aerial_lost": 1.2234, "total_contest": 0.474, "won_contest": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 2.5872, "challenges_lost": 0.5044, "fouls": 0.6606, "fouls_drawn": 0.8584, "blocks": 0.1686, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0816, "shots_on_target": 0.3616, "big_chances_created": 0.1389, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 13.2231, "total_progression": 45.9987, "progressive_carries": 1.3283, "key_pass": 0.8815, "shots_off_target": 0.4208 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0092, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7653, "tackles": 1.2032, "tackles_won": 0.7919, "clearances": 2.457, "aerial_won": 0.7727, "total_shots": 0.7824, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7848, "accurate_pass": 33.5222, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 2.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8014, "crosses_total": 1.6545, "crosses_accurate": 0.1995, "touches": 55.4041, "possession_lost": 9.3828, "dispossessed": 0.2019, "duels_lost": 2.8254, "aerial_lost": 1.2234, "total_contest": 0.474, "won_contest": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 2.5872, "challenges_lost": 0.5044, "fouls": 0.6606, "fouls_drawn": 0.8584, "blocks": 0.1686, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0816, "shots_on_target": 0.3616, "big_chances_created": 0.1389, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 13.2231, "total_progression": 45.9987, "progressive_carries": 1.3283, "key_pass": 0.8815, "shots_off_target": 0.4208 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7653, "tackles": 1.2032, "tackles_won": 0.7919, "clearances": 2.457, "aerial_won": 0.7727, "total_shots": 0.7824, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7848, "accurate_pass": 33.5222, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 2.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8014, "crosses_total": 1.6545, "crosses_accurate": 0.1995, "touches": 55.4041, "possession_lost": 9.3828, "dispossessed": 0.2019, "duels_lost": 2.8254, "aerial_lost": 1.2234, "total_contest": 0.474, "won_contest": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 2.5872, "challenges_lost": 0.5044, "fouls": 0.6606, "fouls_drawn": 0.8584, "blocks": 0.1686, "goals": 0.042, "goal_rate": 0.042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0816, "shots_on_target": 0.3616, "big_chances_created": 0.1389, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 13.2231, "total_progression": 45.9987, "progressive_carries": 1.3283, "key_pass": 0.8815, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7653, "tackles": 1.2032, "tackles_won": 0.7919, "clearances": 2.457, "aerial_won": 0.7727, "total_shots": 0.7824, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7848, "accurate_pass": 33.5222, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 2.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8014, "crosses_total": 1.6545, "crosses_accurate": 0.1995, "touches": 55.4041, "possession_lost": 9.3828, "dispossessed": 0.2019, "duels_lost": 2.8254, "aerial_lost": 1.2234, "total_contest": 0.474, "won_contest": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 2.5872, "challenges_lost": 0.5044, "fouls": 0.6606, "fouls_drawn": 0.8584, "blocks": 0.1686, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0816, "shots_on_target": 0.3616, "big_chances_created": 0.1389, "xgot": 0.09, "ball_carries": 13.2231, "total_progression": 45.9987, "progressive_carries": 1.3283, "key_pass": 0.8815, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7653, "tackles": 1.2032, "tackles_won": 0.7919, "clearances": 2.457, "aerial_won": 0.7727, "total_shots": 0.7824, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7848, "accurate_pass": 33.5222, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 2.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8014, "crosses_total": 1.6545, "crosses_accurate": 0.1995, "touches": 55.4041, "possession_lost": 9.3828, "dispossessed": 0.2019, "duels_lost": 2.8254, "aerial_lost": 1.2234, "total_contest": 0.474, "won_contest": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 2.5872, "challenges_lost": 0.5044, "fouls": 0.6606, "fouls_drawn": 0.8584, "blocks": 0.1686, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "expected_assists": 0.0992, "shots_on_target": 0.3616, "big_chances_created": 0.1389, "xgot": 0.1094, "ball_carries": 13.2231, "total_progression": 45.9987, "progressive_carries": 1.3283, "key_pass": 0.8815, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75, "opponent_faced": "Alexander Isak", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9654, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0453, "after": 0.0551 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0816, "after": 0.0992 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7653, "tackles": 1.2032, "tackles_won": 0.7919, "clearances": 2.457, "aerial_won": 0.7727, "total_shots": 0.7824, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7848, "accurate_pass": 33.5222, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 2.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 15.4537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.7208, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8014, "crosses_total": 1.6545, "crosses_accurate": 0.1995, "touches": 55.4041, "possession_lost": 9.3828, "dispossessed": 0.2019, "duels_lost": 2.8254, "aerial_lost": 1.2234, "total_contest": 0.474, "won_contest": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 2.5872, "challenges_lost": 0.5044, "fouls": 0.6606, "fouls_drawn": 0.8584, "blocks": 0.1686, "goal_rate": 0.042, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "expected_assists": 0.0992, 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"params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0536, "goal_rate": 0.042, "scorer_weight": 0.0532, "squad_weight_total": 1.6849, "weight_share": 0.0316, "finishing_factor": 0.9654, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3667, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3667, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2603 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7653, "tackles": 1.2032, "tackles_won": 0.7919, "clearances": 2.457, "aerial_won": 0.7727, "total_shots": 0.7824, "rating": 6.7721, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 38.7848, "accurate_pass": 33.5222, "duels_won": 2.2979, "total_long_balls": 2.5436, "accurate_long_balls": 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"position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 190, "market_value": 3600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.2877, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 87, "accurate_pass": 80, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 53, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51, "total_opp_half_passes": 33, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2107, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0906, "ball_carries": 30, "total_progression": 107, "progressive_carries": 1, 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0.0316 } ], "others": 0.1855, "total": 7.2877, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093603 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.092859 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.051012 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048031 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031601 } ], "others_margin": 0.185428 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8565, "tackles": 1.06, "tackles_won": 0.6723, "clearances": 4.8838, "aerial_won": 2.7683, "total_shots": 0.5983, "rating": 7.2877, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2445, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.6454, "fouls_drawn": 0.5626, "blocks": 0.7512, "goals": 0.2129, 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0.6542 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2445, "after": 0.2523 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5983, "after": 0.5921 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.858, "tackles": 1.06, "tackles_won": 0.6757, "clearances": 4.8838, "aerial_won": 2.7683, "total_shots": 0.5957, "rating": 7.2877, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2523, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.6542, "fouls_drawn": 0.5671, 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"expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.2493, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0745, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3464, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.858, "tackles": 1.06, "tackles_won": 0.6757, "clearances": 4.8838, "aerial_won": 2.7683, "total_shots": 0.5957, "rating": 7.2877, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 86.522, "accurate_pass": 80.0572, "duels_won": 4.6273, "total_long_balls": 5.6546, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5724, "total_own_half_passes": 53.1872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 51.1928, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.3348, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8645, "crosses_total": 0.2523, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 97.7297, "possession_lost": 7.3546, "dispossessed": 0.103, "duels_lost": 3.0014, "aerial_lost": 1.7335, "total_contest": 0.1441, "won_contest": 0.1441, "ball_recovery": 3.806, "challenges_lost": 0.5276, "fouls": 0.6542, "fouls_drawn": 0.5671, "blocks": 0.7512, "goal_rate": 0.2107, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0591, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "shots_on_target": 0.2493, "big_chances_created": 0.0159, "xgot": 0.0906, "ball_carries": 29.6569, "total_progression": 106.8417, "progressive_carries": 1.1038, "key_pass": 0.1515, "shots_off_target": 0.3464, "opponent_faced": "Bradley Barcola", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0486, "after": 0.0591 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1422 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0669 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0239, "total": 0.7824, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.142186 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066872 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.03989 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022244 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.016227 } ], "others_margin": 0.023881 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.825405120849609, "model_output": 6.8254, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0409 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 6.8254, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040863 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022306 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.01513 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011865 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010704 } ], "others_margin": -0.036865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7944, "tackles": 1.596, "tackles_won": 0.9908, "clearances": 2.2359, "aerial_won": 0.6545, "total_shots": 0.7885, "rating": 6.8254, "minutes": 80.15, "total_pass": 37.6927, "accurate_pass": 32.4113, "duels_won": 2.8066, "total_long_balls": 2.8918, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3622, "total_own_half_passes": 15.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0741, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3367, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3372, "crosses_total": 4.7796, "crosses_accurate": 2.1041, "touches": 54.8738, "possession_lost": 10.3366, "dispossessed": 0.1755, "duels_lost": 2.833, "aerial_lost": 0.7008, "total_contest": 0.9614, "won_contest": 0.4441, "ball_recovery": 3.5053, "challenges_lost": 0.3675, "fouls": 1.0719, "fouls_drawn": 0.8781, "blocks": 0.0116, "goals": 0.0945, 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3.5053, "challenges_lost": 0.3675, "fouls": 1.0802, "fouls_drawn": 0.8691, "blocks": 0.0116, "goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.0984, "assists": 0.3407, "assist_rate": 0.3407, "expected_goals": 0.1548, "expected_assists": 0.2068, "shots_on_target": 0.152, "big_chances_created": 0.6009, "xgot": 0.0912, "ball_carries": 16.4042, "total_progression": 52.7335, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 2.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.6398 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7959, "tackles": 1.596, "tackles_won": 0.9951, "clearances": 2.2359, "aerial_won": 0.6545, "total_shots": 0.805, "rating": 6.8254, "minutes": 80.15, "total_pass": 37.6927, "accurate_pass": 32.4113, "duels_won": 2.8066, "total_long_balls": 2.8918, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3622, "total_own_half_passes": 15.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0741, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3367, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3372, "crosses_total": 4.7931, "crosses_accurate": 2.1041, "touches": 54.8738, "possession_lost": 10.3366, "dispossessed": 0.1755, "duels_lost": 2.833, "aerial_lost": 0.7008, "total_contest": 0.9614, "won_contest": 0.4441, "ball_recovery": 3.5053, "challenges_lost": 0.3675, "fouls": 1.0802, "fouls_drawn": 0.8691, "blocks": 0.0116, "goals": 0.0984, "goal_rate": 0.0984, "assists": 0.3407, "assist_rate": 0.3407, "expected_goals": 0.1548, "expected_assists": 0.2068, "shots_on_target": 0.152, "big_chances_created": 0.6009, "xgot": 0.0912, "ball_carries": 16.4042, "total_progression": 52.7335, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 2.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.6398, "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7959, "tackles": 1.596, "tackles_won": 0.9951, "clearances": 2.2359, "aerial_won": 0.6545, "total_shots": 0.805, "rating": 6.8254, "minutes": 80.15, "total_pass": 37.6927, "accurate_pass": 32.4113, "duels_won": 2.8066, "total_long_balls": 2.8918, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3622, "total_own_half_passes": 15.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0741, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3367, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.3372, "crosses_total": 4.7931, "crosses_accurate": 2.1041, "touches": 54.8738, "possession_lost": 10.3366, "dispossessed": 0.1755, "duels_lost": 2.833, "aerial_lost": 0.7008, "total_contest": 0.9614, "won_contest": 0.4441, "ball_recovery": 3.5053, "challenges_lost": 0.3675, "fouls": 1.0802, "fouls_drawn": 0.8691, "blocks": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0984, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3407, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1548, "expected_assists": 0.2068, "shots_on_target": 0.152, "big_chances_created": 0.6009, "xgot": 0.0912, "ball_carries": 16.4042, "total_progression": 52.7335, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 2.2584, "shots_off_target": 0.6398, "opponent_faced": "Cody Gakpo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7959, "tackles": 1.596, "tackles_won": 0.9951, "clearances": 2.2359, "aerial_won": 0.6545, "total_shots": 0.805, "rating": 6.8254, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 0.1238, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.276513 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.18654 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1012 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.097974 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.046427 } ], "others_margin": -0.005402 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3759365677833557, "model_output": 0.3759, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { 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"predicted": 1.3120205402374268, "model_output": 1.312, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2972 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1559 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0641 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0254 } ], "others": -0.0003, "total": 1.312, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.297248 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.155915 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.064147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041805 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025382 } ], "others_margin": -0.000272 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831671237945557, "model_output": 6.8317, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0247, "total": 6.8317, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029979 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.020103 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014012 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.005847 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.005767 } ], "others_margin": -0.024679 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7381, "expected_assists": 0.0529, "assists": 0.0559, "assist_rate": 0.0559, "expected_goals": 0.109, "goals": 0.1252, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "shots_on_target": 0.3801, "total_shots": 1.3266, "rating": 6.8317, "minutes": 86.21, "total_pass": 41.5032, "accurate_pass": 36.6576, "duels_won": 3.577, "total_long_balls": 2.6119, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6946, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5353, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.648, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0095, "crosses_total": 0.1895, "crosses_accurate": 0.0261, "touches": 54.5606, "possession_lost": 7.8547, "dispossessed": 0.8175, "duels_lost": 4.2973, "aerial_won": 0.3138, "aerial_lost": 1.1274, "interceptions": 0.7869, "tackles_won": 0.6558, "tackles": 1.3839, "clearances": 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"ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6453, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1631, "combined_rank_score": 660.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1122.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9033, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Gómez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cristian Avram", "ranking": 1626 }, { "player_name": "Vykintas Slivka", "ranking": 1627 }, { "player_name": "Roméo Lavia", "ranking": 1628 }, { "player_name": "Ezequiel Cañete", "ranking": 1629 }, { "player_name": "Yu-chan Lee", "ranking": 1630 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ozan Kabak", "ranking": 1632 }, { "player_name": "Fausto Grillo", "ranking": 1633 }, { "player_name": "Sherzod Fayziev", "ranking": 1634 }, { "player_name": "Destiny Udogie", "ranking": 1635 }, { "player_name": "Jae-yul Yeo", "ranking": 1636 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], 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"rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.5275, "accurate_pass": 21.0133, "duels_won": 6.1066, "total_long_balls": 1.7451, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8363, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3829, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5022, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5112, "crosses_total": 1.5007, "crosses_accurate": 0.4202, "touches": 44.4013, "possession_lost": 12.0618, "dispossessed": 1.3072, "duels_lost": 6.9051, "aerial_won": 2.9816, "aerial_lost": 2.354, "interceptions": 0.8345, "tackles_won": 1.3371, "tackles": 2.5655, "clearances": 0.6294, "total_contest": 1.5677, "won_contest": 0.4179, "challenges_lost": 0.5844, "fouls": 1.5209, "fouls_drawn": 0.1416, "blocks": 0.0638, "big_chances_created": 0.2476, "big_chances_missed": 0.2604, "xgot": 0.1275, "ball_carries": 11.7376, "total_progression": 49.9318, "progressive_carries": 1.6866, "shots_off_target": 1.0373 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": 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0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0047 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 0.1017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.112626 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.094589 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.060985 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049411 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.048536 } ], "others_margin": 0.029094 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1253277212381363, "model_output": 0.1253, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.006 } ], "others": -0.0035, "total": 0.1253, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.156558 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.08521 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.068304 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.055269 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.047561 } ], "others_margin": -0.02732 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.16963209211826324, "model_output": 0.1696, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0097, "total": 0.1696, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.253202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.155337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107937 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.088628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036092 } ], "others_margin": -0.055402 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22864872217178345, "model_output": 0.2286, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0162, "total": 0.2286, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.340715 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.15284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109463 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.098236 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076339 } ], "others_margin": 0.073253 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5871513485908508, "model_output": 0.5872, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1034 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0532 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 0.5872, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.277041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.134245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128609 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.09141 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024141 } ], "others_margin": -0.060881 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.624483346939087, "model_output": 1.6245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.453 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1629 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0765 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0401 } ], "others": -0.0464, "total": 1.6245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.45301 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16293 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.076479 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.052112 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040081 } ], "others_margin": -0.046369 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.903285503387451, "model_output": 6.9033, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0134, "total": 6.9033, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.035127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030066 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020608 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013274 } ], "others_margin": 0.013412 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assists": 0.1263, "assist_rate": 0.1263, "expected_goals": 0.171, "goals": 0.2305, "goal_rate": 0.2305, "shots_on_target": 0.5919, "total_shots": 1.6376, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5129, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 3.0058, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8413, "tackles_won": 1.3479, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5332, "fouls_drawn": 0.1427, "blocks": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2496, "big_chances_missed": 0.2625, "xgot": 0.1285, "ball_carries": 11.8327, "total_progression": 50.3362, "progressive_carries": 1.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.0457 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assists": 0.1297, "assist_rate": 0.1297, "expected_goals": 0.171, "goals": 0.2282, "goal_rate": 0.2282, "shots_on_target": 0.5996, "total_shots": 1.6575, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 3.0058, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8423, "tackles_won": 1.3531, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5274, "fouls_drawn": 0.1413, "blocks": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2496, "big_chances_missed": 0.2625, "xgot": 0.1285, "ball_carries": 11.8327, "total_progression": 50.3362, "progressive_carries": 1.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.0457 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8926, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6376, "after": 1.6575 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5919, "after": 0.5996 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5332, "after": 1.5274 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3479, "after": 1.3531 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assists": 0.1297, "assist_rate": 0.1297, "expected_goals": 0.171, "goals": 0.2282, "goal_rate": 0.2282, "shots_on_target": 0.5996, "total_shots": 1.6575, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 3.0058, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8423, "tackles_won": 1.3531, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5274, "fouls_drawn": 0.1413, "blocks": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2496, "big_chances_missed": 0.2625, "xgot": 0.1285, "ball_carries": 11.8327, "total_progression": 50.3362, "progressive_carries": 1.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.0457 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assists": 0.1297, "assist_rate": 0.1297, "expected_goals": 0.1663, "goals": 0.2219, "goal_rate": 0.2219, "shots_on_target": 0.5832, "total_shots": 1.6121, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8423, "tackles_won": 1.3531, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5274, "fouls_drawn": 0.1413, "blocks": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2496, "big_chances_missed": 0.2553, "xgot": 0.125, "ball_carries": 11.8327, "total_progression": 50.3362, "progressive_carries": 1.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.017, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9726, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9726, "skill_edge": -0.0547, "height_edge": 0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.7679, "defender_skill": 0.8893, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 } ], "xg_override": 0.1663 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 3.0058, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6575, "after": 1.6121 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0457, "after": 1.017 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5996, "after": 0.5832 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2625, "after": 0.2553 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2282, "after": 0.2219 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1025, "assist_rate": 0.1297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1663, "goal_rate": 0.2219, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5832, "total_shots": 1.6121, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8423, "tackles_won": 1.3531, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5274, "fouls_drawn": 0.1413, "blocks": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2496, "big_chances_missed": 0.2553, "xgot": 0.125, "ball_carries": 11.8327, "total_progression": 50.3362, "progressive_carries": 1.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.017, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9726, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1247, "assist_rate": 0.1297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2022, "goal_rate": 0.2219, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5832, "total_shots": 1.6121, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8423, "tackles_won": 1.3531, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5274, "fouls_drawn": 0.1413, "blocks": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2496, "big_chances_missed": 0.2553, "xgot": 0.152, "ball_carries": 11.8327, "total_progression": 50.3362, "progressive_carries": 1.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.017, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9726, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1784 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1663, "after": 0.2022 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1025, "after": 0.1247 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1247, "assist_rate": 0.1297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2022, "goal_rate": 0.2219, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5832, "total_shots": 1.6121, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8423, "tackles_won": 1.3531, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5274, "fouls_drawn": 0.1413, "blocks": 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.1247, "assist_rate": 0.1297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2022, "goal_rate": 0.2219, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5832, "total_shots": 1.6121, "rating": 6.9033, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 27.7505, "accurate_pass": 21.1835, "duels_won": 6.1561, "total_long_balls": 1.7592, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8431, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5549, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.3079, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6287, "crosses_total": 1.5165, "crosses_accurate": 0.4236, "touches": 44.761, "possession_lost": 12.1595, "dispossessed": 1.3178, "duels_lost": 6.961, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3731, "interceptions": 0.8423, "tackles_won": 1.3531, "tackles": 2.5863, "clearances": 0.6345, "total_contest": 1.5804, "won_contest": 0.4213, "challenges_lost": 0.5891, "fouls": 1.5274, "fouls_drawn": 0.1413, "blocks": 0.0643, "big_chances_created": 0.2496, "big_chances_missed": 0.2553, "xgot": 0.152, "ball_carries": 11.8327, "total_progression": 50.3362, "progressive_carries": 1.7003, "shots_off_target": 1.017, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9726, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1831, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1784, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, 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"margin": 0.091345 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025994 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.022989 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019968 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013365 } ], "others_margin": -0.063237 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0331, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "expected_goals": 0.1311, "goals": 0.143, "goal_rate": 0.143, "shots_on_target": 0.4324, "total_shots": 1.5196, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, "accurate_pass": 21.723, "duels_won": 3.7415, "total_long_balls": 1.0331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5584, "total_own_half_passes": 10.666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.516, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4553, "possession_lost": 5.8915, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.4395, "aerial_won": 3.2669, "aerial_lost": 1.8986, "interceptions": 1.1169, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4747, "clearances": 0.9493, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 2.0662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.5189, "ball_carries": 8.2648, "total_progression": 25.8622, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 1.0872 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0331, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "expected_goals": 0.1311, "goals": 0.143, "goal_rate": 0.143, "shots_on_target": 0.4324, "total_shots": 1.5196, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, "accurate_pass": 21.723, "duels_won": 3.7415, "total_long_balls": 1.0331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5584, "total_own_half_passes": 10.666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.516, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4553, "possession_lost": 5.8915, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.4395, "aerial_won": 3.2669, "aerial_lost": 1.8986, "interceptions": 1.1169, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4747, "clearances": 0.9493, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 2.0662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.5189, "ball_carries": 8.2648, "total_progression": 25.8622, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 1.0872 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "expected_goals": 0.1174, "goals": 0.1281, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "shots_on_target": 0.3873, "total_shots": 1.361, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, "accurate_pass": 21.723, "duels_won": 3.7415, "total_long_balls": 1.0331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5584, "total_own_half_passes": 10.666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.516, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4553, "possession_lost": 5.8915, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.4395, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 1.8986, "interceptions": 1.1169, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4747, "clearances": 0.9493, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 2.0662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4647, "ball_carries": 8.2648, "total_progression": 25.8622, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9737, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8956, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8956, "skill_edge": -0.099, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.6704, "defender_skill": 0.8904, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "market_value": 77000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8893 }, { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "market_value": 81000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8915 } ], "xg_override": 0.1174 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 3.2669, "after": 1.3 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5196, "after": 1.361 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0872, "after": 0.9737 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.5189, "after": 0.4647 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4324, "after": 0.3873 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.143, "after": 0.1281 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1311, "after": 0.1174 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1174, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3873, "total_shots": 1.361, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, "accurate_pass": 21.723, "duels_won": 3.7415, "total_long_balls": 1.0331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5584, "total_own_half_passes": 10.666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.516, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4553, "possession_lost": 5.8915, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.4395, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 1.8986, "interceptions": 1.1169, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4747, "clearances": 0.9493, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 2.0662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4647, "ball_carries": 8.2648, "total_progression": 25.8622, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9737, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8956, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1428, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3873, "total_shots": 1.361, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, "accurate_pass": 21.723, "duels_won": 3.7415, "total_long_balls": 1.0331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5584, "total_own_half_passes": 10.666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.516, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4553, "possession_lost": 5.8915, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.4395, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 1.8986, "interceptions": 1.1169, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4747, "clearances": 0.9493, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 2.0662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.5651, "ball_carries": 8.2648, "total_progression": 25.8622, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9737, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8956, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0639, "creation_factor": 0.9602 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1174, "after": 0.1428 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0705, "after": 0.0857 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1428, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3873, "total_shots": 1.361, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, "accurate_pass": 21.723, "duels_won": 3.7415, "total_long_balls": 1.0331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5584, "total_own_half_passes": 10.666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.516, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4553, "possession_lost": 5.8915, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.4395, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 1.8986, "interceptions": 1.1169, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4747, "clearances": 0.9493, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 2.0662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.5651, "ball_carries": 8.2648, "total_progression": 25.8622, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9737, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8956, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0639, "creation_factor": 0.9602, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 75, "fifa_rank": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 86.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1428, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3873, "total_shots": 1.361, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, "accurate_pass": 21.723, "duels_won": 3.7415, "total_long_balls": 1.0331, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5584, "total_own_half_passes": 10.666, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.516, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2069, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 34.4553, "possession_lost": 5.8915, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.4395, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 1.8986, "interceptions": 1.1169, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4747, "clearances": 0.9493, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4747, "fouls": 2.0662, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.5651, "ball_carries": 8.2648, "total_progression": 25.8622, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.9737, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8956, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "opponent_faced": "Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1331, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0639, "creation_factor": 0.9602, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1331, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "scorer_weight": 0.1519, "squad_weight_total": 1.6849, "weight_share": 0.0902, "finishing_factor": 1.0639, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3667, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3667, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2603 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7924, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1428, "goal_rate": 0.1281, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3873, "total_shots": 1.361, "rating": 6.8467, "minutes": 85.67, "total_pass": 27.0561, 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"contribution": 0.0702 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0588 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 1.6699, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.391386 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.156511 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.10212 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.070172 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05881 } ], "others_margin": 0.018046 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.292761325836182, "model_output": 7.2928, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1373 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0942 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0728 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0469 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0454 } ], "others": 0.1411, "total": 7.2928, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.137253 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094183 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.072798 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046883 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.045449 } ], "others_margin": 0.141091 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9965, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3562, "expected_assists": 0.1881, "assists": 0.239, "assist_rate": 0.239, "expected_goals": 0.2292, "goals": 0.2858, "goal_rate": 0.2858, "shots_on_target": 0.6556, "total_shots": 1.6641, "rating": 7.2928, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 61.7049, "accurate_pass": 54.25, "duels_won": 2.3199, "total_long_balls": 5.059, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2199, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6811, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3588, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0237, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8912, "crosses_total": 6.5603, "crosses_accurate": 1.6718, "touches": 79.1851, "possession_lost": 14.4178, "dispossessed": 0.5953, "duels_lost": 3.8621, "aerial_won": 0.6905, "aerial_lost": 0.8042, "interceptions": 0.7503, "tackles_won": 0.9724, "tackles": 1.3724, "clearances": 0.9604, "total_contest": 0.2662, "won_contest": 0.1119, "challenges_lost": 1.159, "fouls": 1.2567, "fouls_drawn": 0.1451, "blocks": 0.1491, "big_chances_created": 0.6071, "big_chances_missed": 0.116, "xgot": 0.1744, "ball_carries": 24.2757, "total_progression": 82.5402, "progressive_carries": 1.0654, "shots_off_target": 1.0085 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2300000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9965, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0149)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3562, "expected_assists": 0.1881, "assists": 0.2354, "assist_rate": 0.2354, "expected_goals": 0.2292, "goals": 0.289, "goal_rate": 0.289, "shots_on_target": 0.6532, "total_shots": 1.6467, "rating": 7.2928, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 61.7049, "accurate_pass": 54.25, "duels_won": 2.3199, "total_long_balls": 5.059, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2199, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6811, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3588, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0237, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8912, "crosses_total": 6.5962, "crosses_accurate": 1.6718, "touches": 79.1851, "possession_lost": 14.4178, "dispossessed": 0.5953, "duels_lost": 3.8621, "aerial_won": 0.6905, "aerial_lost": 0.8042, "interceptions": 0.7391, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "tackles": 1.3724, "clearances": 0.9604, "total_contest": 0.2662, "won_contest": 0.1119, "challenges_lost": 1.159, "fouls": 1.2602, "fouls_drawn": 0.1429, "blocks": 0.1491, "big_chances_created": 0.6071, "big_chances_missed": 0.116, "xgot": 0.1744, "ball_carries": 24.2757, "total_progression": 82.5402, "progressive_carries": 1.0654, "shots_off_target": 1.0085 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0149, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9962, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", 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"total_own_half_passes": 23.6811, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3588, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0237, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8912, "crosses_total": 6.5962, "crosses_accurate": 1.6718, "touches": 79.1851, "possession_lost": 14.4178, "dispossessed": 0.5953, "duels_lost": 3.8621, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8042, "interceptions": 0.7391, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "tackles": 1.3724, "clearances": 0.9604, "total_contest": 0.2662, "won_contest": 0.1119, "challenges_lost": 1.159, "fouls": 1.2602, "fouls_drawn": 0.1429, "blocks": 0.1491, "big_chances_created": 0.6071, "big_chances_missed": 0.09, "xgot": 0.1353, "ball_carries": 24.2757, "total_progression": 82.5402, "progressive_carries": 1.0654, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.776, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Virgil van Dijk", "opponent_faced": "Virgil van Dijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Virgil van Dijk", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.776, "skill_edge": -0.0964, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6516, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6516 } ], "xg_override": 0.1779 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6905, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6617, "after": 1.2895 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0085, "after": 0.7826 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6532, "after": 0.5069 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.289, "after": 0.2243 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2292, "after": 0.1779 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1744, "after": 0.1353 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.116, "after": 0.09 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3562, "expected_assists": 0.1881, "assist_rate": 0.2354, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1779, "goal_rate": 0.2243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5069, "total_shots": 1.2895, "rating": 7.2928, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 61.7049, "accurate_pass": 54.25, "duels_won": 2.3199, "total_long_balls": 5.059, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2199, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6811, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3588, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0237, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8912, "crosses_total": 6.5962, "crosses_accurate": 1.6718, "touches": 79.1851, "possession_lost": 14.4178, "dispossessed": 0.5953, "duels_lost": 3.8621, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8042, "interceptions": 0.7391, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "tackles": 1.3724, "clearances": 0.9604, "total_contest": 0.2662, "won_contest": 0.1119, "challenges_lost": 1.159, "fouls": 1.2602, "fouls_drawn": 0.1429, "blocks": 0.1491, "big_chances_created": 0.6071, "big_chances_missed": 0.09, "xgot": 0.1353, "ball_carries": 24.2757, "total_progression": 82.5402, "progressive_carries": 1.0654, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.776, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Virgil van Dijk", "opponent_faced": "Virgil van Dijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3562, "expected_assists": 0.2287, "assist_rate": 0.2354, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2163, "goal_rate": 0.2243, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5069, "total_shots": 1.2895, "rating": 7.2928, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 61.7049, "accurate_pass": 54.25, "duels_won": 2.3199, "total_long_balls": 5.059, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2199, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6811, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3588, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.0237, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.8912, "crosses_total": 6.5962, "crosses_accurate": 1.6718, "touches": 79.1851, "possession_lost": 14.4178, "dispossessed": 0.5953, "duels_lost": 3.8621, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8042, "interceptions": 0.7391, "tackles_won": 0.9728, "tackles": 1.3724, "clearances": 0.9604, "total_contest": 0.2662, "won_contest": 0.1119, "challenges_lost": 1.159, "fouls": 1.2602, "fouls_drawn": 0.1429, "blocks": 0.1491, "big_chances_created": 0.6071, "big_chances_missed": 0.09, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 24.2757, "total_progression": 82.5402, "progressive_carries": 1.0654, "shots_off_target": 0.7826, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.776, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Virgil van Dijk", "opponent_faced": "Virgil van Dijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 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"name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0418 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0314 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 0.9583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108375 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.047156 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.045713 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.040845 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.031766 } ], "others_margin": -0.013816 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.5907328128814697, "model_output": 3.5907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4457 }, { "name": 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"decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1593 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0882 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0823 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0569 } ], "others": -0.1126, "total": 1.4342, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109112 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.055651 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.051797 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037724 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037468 } ], "others_margin": -0.07567 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.622850775718689, "model_output": 0.6229, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0682 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0091, "total": 0.6229, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.068169 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.034796 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.022841 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017642 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017534 } ], "others_margin": -0.009263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.049643516540527, "model_output": 7.0496, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0281 } ], "others": 0.0356, "total": 7.0496, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.068594 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.050053 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.046613 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.035473 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028057 } ], "others_margin": 0.035722 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1302, "tackles": 1.4977, "tackles_won": 0.9656, "clearances": 3.618, "aerial_won": 1.4451, "total_shots": 0.6277, "rating": 7.0496, "minutes": 87.56, "total_pass": 65.3255, "accurate_pass": 55.366, "duels_won": 4.3487, "total_long_balls": 7.8733, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0913, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.5611, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.805, "crosses_total": 2.958, "crosses_accurate": 0.7865, "touches": 83.0494, "possession_lost": 13.354, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1926, "aerial_lost": 1.9727, "total_contest": 0.0721, "won_contest": 0.0721, "ball_recovery": 4.153, "challenges_lost": 0.8882, "fouls": 1.3317, "fouls_drawn": 1.3877, "blocks": 0.2021, "goals": 0.0, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4403 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.077, "total": 0.5734, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.724284 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.058179 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.045265 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.041636 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.03623 } ], "others_margin": 0.144288 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.860450267791748, "model_output": 0.8605, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0682 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2647 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1011 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0619 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0513 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 0.8605, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.91441 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.212428 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.094752 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.06278 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055217 } ], "others_margin": -0.049496 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5841531753540039, "model_output": 0.5842, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7495 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1043 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0611 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0323 } ], "others": -0.0793, "total": 0.5842, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.781545 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.152678 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.086519 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.068074 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.049827 } ], "others_margin": -0.127512 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18175950646400452, "model_output": 0.1818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2749 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0214, "total": 0.1818, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.274948 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.019575 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.013684 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.006783 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.005738 } ], "others_margin": -0.021359 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.776253700256348, "model_output": 6.7763, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0106, "total": 6.7763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027942 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020814 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020356 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012876 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012848 } ], "others_margin": -0.010639 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3957, "tackles": 0.7889, "tackles_won": 0.5777, "clearances": 0.8668, "aerial_won": 0.5885, "total_shots": 0.1831, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 26.49, "total_pass": 16.3543, "accurate_pass": 13.3977, "duels_won": 4.0227, "total_long_balls": 1.1748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3916, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3542, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0435, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.8803, "possession_lost": 5.1388, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 2.7892, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.6158, "won_contest": 0.3328, "ball_recovery": 1.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.6657, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3328, "assist_rate": 0.3328, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3328, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0592, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.7244, "shots_off_target": 0.1831 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0074, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0112)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4009, "tackles": 0.7889, "tackles_won": 0.5732, "clearances": 0.8668, "aerial_won": 0.5885, "total_shots": 0.1848, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 26.49, "total_pass": 16.3543, "accurate_pass": 13.3977, "duels_won": 4.0227, "total_long_balls": 1.1748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3916, "total_own_half_passes": 5.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3542, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0435, "crosses_total": 0.0097, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 29.8803, "possession_lost": 5.1388, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 2.7892, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.6158, "won_contest": 0.3328, "ball_recovery": 1.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.6602, "fouls_drawn": 0.0058, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.3291, "assist_rate": 0.3291, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3328, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0592, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.7244, "shots_off_target": 0.1831 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0112, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2943, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0097 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0058 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6657, "after": 0.6602 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3957, "after": 0.4009 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.5 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles": 0.4314, "tackles_won": 0.3135, "clearances": 0.4741, "aerial_won": 0.3219, "total_shots": 0.1011, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.1001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.49, "projection_minutes": 26.49, "minutes_scale": 0.5469, "appearance_probability": 0.236 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles": 0.4314, "tackles_won": 0.3135, "clearances": 0.4741, "aerial_won": 0.3219, "total_shots": 0.1011, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.18, "assist_rate": 0.18, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.1001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2193, "tackles": 0.4314, "tackles_won": 0.3135, "clearances": 0.4741, "aerial_won": 0.3219, "total_shots": 0.1011, "rating": 6.7763, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.18, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.1001, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.236, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 190, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 10, 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-0.0097 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 6.7966, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.03376 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02585 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012924 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00974 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.009409 } ], "others_margin": 0.006794 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0055, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2941, "tackles": 0.5253, "tackles_won": 0.3322, "clearances": 1.6287, "aerial_won": 0.7511, "total_shots": 0.1586, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 11.55, "total_pass": 14.1727, "accurate_pass": 13.3255, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.5648, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.543, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7825, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.0186, "possession_lost": 0.8472, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5648, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2824, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8972, "total_progression": 8.2601, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1586 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0055, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.6 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.45, "projection_minutes": 11.55, "minutes_scale": 1.2512, "appearance_probability": 0.339 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9009 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.339 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9009, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3241, "fifa_rank": 1784.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9009, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.6849, "weight_share": 0.0006, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.339, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3667, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3667, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2603 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, 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"passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0291 } ], "others": 0.0715, "total": 0.4192, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.613187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.302615 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.203427 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.090156 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.087315 } ], "others_margin": 0.18739 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9546515345573425, "model_output": 0.9547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6594 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4118 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0674 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0658 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0653 } ], "others": 0.0133, "total": 0.9547, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.659365 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.411786 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.06737 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.065768 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.065281 } ], "others_margin": 0.013346 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.811474800109863, "model_output": 6.8115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0835 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0629 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 6.8115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083536 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.062937 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050497 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034942 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027812 } ], "others_margin": -0.029056 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3927, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0737, "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goals": 0.1157, "goal_rate": 0.1157, "shots_on_target": 0.4238, "total_shots": 0.9651, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 26.39, "total_pass": 17.6158, "accurate_pass": 15.9649, "duels_won": 0.4368, "total_long_balls": 0.8283, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4906, "total_own_half_passes": 6.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1824, "crosses_total": 0.4596, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5657, "possession_lost": 2.6175, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.9746, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2007, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.7509, 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"total_own_half_passes": 6.9981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7825, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6178, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1824, "crosses_total": 0.4575, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5657, "possession_lost": 2.6175, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.9746, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2036, "tackles": 0.2997, "clearances": 0.7509, "total_contest": 0.2535, "won_contest": 0.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2319, "fouls_drawn": 0.0039, "blocks": 0.1165, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0242, "ball_carries": 6.9677, "total_progression": 23.7665, "progressive_carries": 0.4645, "shots_off_target": 0.5412 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0046, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2932, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 26.4 to 23.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.33)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3451, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0758, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 0.8497, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.4756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.19, "projection_minutes": 26.39, "minutes_scale": 0.8788, "appearance_probability": 0.332 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3451, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "expected_goals": 0.0758, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 0.8497, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.4756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3451, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 0.8497, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.4756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.332, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3451, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assist_rate": 0.0645, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3741, "total_shots": 0.8497, "rating": 6.8115, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 15.4813, "accurate_pass": 14.0304, "duels_won": 0.3839, "total_long_balls": 0.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1501, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9607, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3312, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0698, "crosses_total": 0.4021, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9526, "possession_lost": 2.3003, "dispossessed": 0.2742, "duels_lost": 0.8565, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.351, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1789, "tackles": 0.2634, "clearances": 0.6599, "total_contest": 0.2228, "won_contest": 0.1205, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.0034, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0213, "ball_carries": 6.1234, "total_progression": 20.8867, "progressive_carries": 0.4082, "shots_off_target": 0.4756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1874, "fifa_rank": 1445.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Georginio Rutter": { "player_id": 946695, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 182, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assist_rate": 0.112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1132, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.681, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 6.9655, "dispossessed": 0.4819, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0911, 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"source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_contest": 1.8038, "won_contest": 0.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.2619, "fouls": 0.187, "fouls_drawn": 0.4522, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0899, "big_chances_missed": 0.2964, "xgot": 0.068, "ball_carries": 4.932, "total_progression": 19.7891, "progressive_carries": 0.6723, "shots_off_target": 0.6333 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0056)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5641, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assists": 0.0836, "assist_rate": 0.0836, "expected_goals": 0.0845, "goals": 0.0876, "goal_rate": 0.0876, "shots_on_target": 0.2463, "total_shots": 0.8783, "rating": 6.681, "minutes": 17.25, "total_pass": 5.0968, "accurate_pass": 3.3191, "duels_won": 1.9853, "total_long_balls": 0.3743, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0915, "total_own_half_passes": 0.859, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.7505, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.2377, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5685, "crosses_total": 0.5038, "crosses_accurate": 0.0899, "touches": 12.622, "possession_lost": 5.1991, "dispossessed": 0.4819, "duels_lost": 2.1876, "aerial_won": 0.4891, "aerial_lost": 0.3092, "interceptions": 0.2386, "tackles_won": 0.3133, "tackles": 0.4843, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.8038, "won_contest": 0.7318, "challenges_lost": 0.2619, "fouls": 0.186, "fouls_drawn": 0.4497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0899, "big_chances_missed": 0.2964, "xgot": 0.068, "ball_carries": 4.932, "total_progression": 19.7891, "progressive_carries": 0.6723, "shots_off_target": 0.6333 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0056, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1917, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"big_chances_created": 0.1204, "big_chances_missed": 0.3971, "xgot": 0.0911, "ball_carries": 6.6076, "total_progression": 26.5124, "progressive_carries": 0.9007, "shots_off_target": 0.8485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.11, "projection_minutes": 17.25, "minutes_scale": 1.3397, "appearance_probability": 0.33 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7558, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assists": 0.112, "assist_rate": 0.112, "expected_goals": 0.1132, "goals": 0.1174, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "shots_on_target": 0.33, "total_shots": 1.1785, "rating": 6.681, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 6.8284, "accurate_pass": 4.4468, "duels_won": 2.6598, "total_long_balls": 0.5015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1226, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1508, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0055, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6775, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4411, "crosses_total": 0.675, "crosses_accurate": 0.1204, "touches": 16.9103, "possession_lost": 6.9655, "dispossessed": 0.4819, "duels_lost": 2.9308, "aerial_won": 0.6553, "aerial_lost": 0.3092, "interceptions": 0.3197, "tackles_won": 0.4197, "tackles": 0.6488, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4166, "won_contest": 0.9804, "challenges_lost": 0.2619, "fouls": 0.2492, "fouls_drawn": 0.6025, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1204, "big_chances_missed": 0.3971, "xgot": 0.0911, "ball_carries": 6.6076, "total_progression": 26.5124, "progressive_carries": 0.9007, "shots_off_target": 0.8485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7558, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assist_rate": 0.112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1132, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.33, "total_shots": 1.1785, "rating": 6.681, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 6.8284, "accurate_pass": 4.4468, "duels_won": 2.6598, "total_long_balls": 0.5015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1226, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1508, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0055, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6775, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4411, "crosses_total": 0.675, "crosses_accurate": 0.1204, "touches": 16.9103, "possession_lost": 6.9655, "dispossessed": 0.4819, "duels_lost": 2.9308, "aerial_won": 0.6553, "aerial_lost": 0.3092, "interceptions": 0.3197, "tackles_won": 0.4197, "tackles": 0.6488, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4166, "won_contest": 0.9804, "challenges_lost": 0.2619, "fouls": 0.2492, "fouls_drawn": 0.6025, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1204, "big_chances_missed": 0.3971, "xgot": 0.0911, "ball_carries": 6.6076, "total_progression": 26.5124, "progressive_carries": 0.9007, "shots_off_target": 0.8485, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.33, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.11, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.33, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7558, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assist_rate": 0.112, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1132, "goal_rate": 0.1174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.33, "total_shots": 1.1785, "rating": 6.681, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 6.8284, "accurate_pass": 4.4468, "duels_won": 2.6598, "total_long_balls": 0.5015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1226, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1508, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0055, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6775, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4411, "crosses_total": 0.675, "crosses_accurate": 0.1204, "touches": 16.9103, "possession_lost": 6.9655, "dispossessed": 0.4819, "duels_lost": 2.9308, "aerial_won": 0.6553, "aerial_lost": 0.3092, "interceptions": 0.3197, "tackles_won": 0.4197, "tackles": 0.6488, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4166, "won_contest": 0.9804, "challenges_lost": 0.2619, "fouls": 0.2492, "fouls_drawn": 0.6025, "blocks": 0.0, 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"player_id": 1400106, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 51000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0323, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0429, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.051, "finishing_factor": 1.0148, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2882, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2246, "expected_assists": 0.1116, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle 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"duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3435, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0933, "expected_assists": 0.2006, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024015, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.231, "expected_assists": 0.3947, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.7064, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 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"contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.6958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075874 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.021024 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019689 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012788 } ], "others_margin": -0.026255 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.828)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0603, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2003, "total_shots": 0.6514, "expected_assists": 0.0721, "key_pass": 0.5893, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.2311, "accurate_pass": 6.1435, "duels_won": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 0.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1574, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8371, "crosses_total": 2.9513, "crosses_accurate": 0.453, "touches": 20.3206, "possession_lost": 8.1808, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.4068, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.3467, "won_contest": 1.0231, "ball_recovery": 1.1559, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3056, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1775, "tackles_won": 0.9047, "tackles": 1.1921, "clearances": 0.2864, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.789, "total_progression": 27.5027, "progressive_carries": 1.7155, "shots_off_target": 0.451 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 51000000, "quality_factor": 0.8276, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0581, "goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.84, "projection_minutes": 27.84, "minutes_scale": 0.964, "appearance_probability": 0.629 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0581, "goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0323, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0148, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.629 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0581, "after": 0.0444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0695, "after": 0.0532 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0323, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0148, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1459, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0323, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0429, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0148, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0429, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "scorer_weight": 0.0451, "squad_weight_total": 1.6849, "weight_share": 0.0267, "finishing_factor": 1.0148, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3667, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3667, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2603 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0323, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0429, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.051, "finishing_factor": 1.0148, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.051, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0426, "squad_weight_total": 1.246, "weight_share": 0.0342, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.3144, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3144, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2741, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Zadok Yohanna": { "player_id": 2189496, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 184, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0514, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.601, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0506, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0333, "finishing_factor": 0.9346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6608, "combined_rank_score": 4925.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 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"model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051824 } ], "others_margin": -0.060573 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.601029396057129, "model_output": 6.601, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0546, "total": 6.601, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051432 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0386, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goals": 0.0473, "goal_rate": 0.0473, "shots_on_target": 0.2292, "total_shots": 0.5249, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3555, "rating": 6.601, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0386, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2957 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0386, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.2284, "total_shots": 0.523, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3555, "rating": 6.601, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, 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0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2769 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0339 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 0.3423, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.528985 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.107705 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.079835 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063893 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051824 } ], "others_margin": -0.060573 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.601029396057129, "model_output": 6.601, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0514 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0546, "total": 6.601, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051432 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016422 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01378 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013481 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011476 } ], "others_margin": -0.05454 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0386, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goals": 0.0473, "goal_rate": 0.0473, "shots_on_target": 0.2292, "total_shots": 0.5249, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3555, "rating": 6.601, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0386, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2957 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0386, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0536, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.2284, "total_shots": 0.523, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3555, "rating": 6.601, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, 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"blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.323, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0514, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2495, "total_shots": 0.5725, "expected_assists": 0.038, "key_pass": 0.3883, "rating": 6.601, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.323, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 6.6958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075874 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.021024 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019689 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012788 } ], "others_margin": -0.026255 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0695, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1931, "total_shots": 0.6279, "expected_assists": 0.0532, "key_pass": 0.5681, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0323, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.4348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0148, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.629 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0581, "after": 0.0444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0695, "after": 0.0532 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4273 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0442, "total": 0.3304, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.6934 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.039097 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.035644 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.028788 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.02759 } ], "others_margin": -0.125644 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.6198068857192993, "model_output": 1.6198, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2215 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0928 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0837 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0582 } ], "others": 0.0192, "total": 1.6198, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.031812 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.104842 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065703 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.055823 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037047 } ], "others_margin": 0.011919 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7469623684883118, "model_output": 0.747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8888 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1233 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0434 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0435 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0433 } ], "others": 0.0003, "total": 0.747, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.030235 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.223041 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.067991 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.063767 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.059777 } ], "others_margin": 0.000365 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1576838493347168, "model_output": 0.1577, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2652 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0445, "total": 0.1577, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.26522 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.012992 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.012058 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.011917 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.009519 } ], "others_margin": -0.044613 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7966108322143555, "model_output": 6.7966, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 6.7966, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.03376 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02585 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012924 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.00974 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.009409 } ], "others_margin": 0.006794 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0055, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2941, "tackles": 0.5253, "tackles_won": 0.3322, "clearances": 1.6287, "aerial_won": 0.7511, "total_shots": 0.1586, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 11.55, "total_pass": 14.1727, "accurate_pass": 13.3255, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.5648, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 6.8254, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.543, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3473, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7825, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.0186, "possession_lost": 0.8472, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5648, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2824, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8972, "total_progression": 8.2601, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1586 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0055, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.6 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.45, "projection_minutes": 11.55, "minutes_scale": 1.2512, "appearance_probability": 0.339 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.51 (squad xG sum 1.2450, xG scale 1.2161, xA scale 1.2161, team xA 1.16 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9009 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.514, "squad_xg_sum": 1.245, "squad_xa_sum": 0.955, "team_expected_assists": 1.1614, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7671, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2161, "xa_scale": 1.2161, "opponent_lambda": 2.256, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.339 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9009, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3241, "fifa_rank": 1784.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9009, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.6849, "weight_share": 0.0006, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.339, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3667, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3667, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2603 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.368, "tackles": 0.6573, "tackles_won": 0.4157, "clearances": 2.0379, "aerial_won": 0.9398, "total_shots": 0.1984, "rating": 6.7966, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 17.7333, "accurate_pass": 16.6732, "duels_won": 0.0, "total_long_balls": 0.7067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5401, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1868, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4864, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0429, "possession_lost": 1.06, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7067, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.3787, "total_progression": 10.3353, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1984, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.339, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.367, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0023, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9009, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0023, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0021, "squad_weight_total": 1.246, "weight_share": 0.0017, "creation_factor": 0.9009, "appearance_weight": 0.339, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.3144, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3144, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2741, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.51, "expected_assists": 1.16, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 550, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.98, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 81000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.883, "defenders": [ "Olivier Boscagli" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.543, "xg_contribution": 0.2412, "xg_multiplier": 1.0927, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Olivier Boscagli", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.457 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (LW) is slightly favored against Olivier Boscagli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€81M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.241 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 93000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.828, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "xg_contribution": 0.4523, "xg_multiplier": 1.0731, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 }, { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (ST) is slightly favored against Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Luka Vušković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€93M vs €55M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.452 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Cody Gakpo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.828, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.242, "xg_contribution": 0.193, "xg_multiplier": 1.0617, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 }, { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.758 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cody Gakpo (ST) is slightly favored against Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Luka Vušković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €55M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.828, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.206, "xg_contribution": 0.1741, "xg_multiplier": 1.0095, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.794 }, { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.794 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (ST) is evenly matched against Ferdi Kadıoğlu and Luka Vušković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €55M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Mac Allister", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0947, "xg_multiplier": 1.0709, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Mac Allister (CDM) is slightly favored against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €41M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 81000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.883, "defenders": [ "Yasin Ayari" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.513, "xg_contribution": 0.0856, "xg_multiplier": 1.137, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yasin Ayari", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.487 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (CDM) is slightly favored against Yasin Ayari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€81M vs €41M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.14 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.086 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pascal Groß", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Virgil van Dijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.328, "xg_contribution": 0.1779, "xg_multiplier": 0.776, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Virgil van Dijk", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.672 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pascal Groß (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Virgil van Dijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.178 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chema Andrés", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.881, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1174, "xg_multiplier": 0.8956, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 81000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chema Andrés (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €79M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.117 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.78, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2553, "xg_multiplier": 0.9464, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ronald Araújo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) is evenly matched against Jérémy Jacquet and Ronald Araújo in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.255 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "xg_contribution": 0.1013, "xg_multiplier": 0.9291, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Diego Gómez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.1663, "xg_multiplier": 0.9726, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Gómez (CDM) is evenly matched against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €77M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.882, "away_midfield_power": 0.679, "home_creative_power": 0.838, "away_creative_power": 0.577, "home_defensive_power": 0.749, "away_defensive_power": 0.69, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.565, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Alexis Mac Allister", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Diego Gómez", "Chema Andrés", "Pascal Groß" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Florian Wirtz vs Yasin Ayari", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.021, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.977 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.256, "away_lambda": 1.514, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Olivier Boscagli", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cody Gakpo": { "opponents": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Ferdi Kadıoğlu", "Luka Vušković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Chema Andrés", "Diego Gómez", "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Yasin Ayari", "Chema Andrés" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Virgil van Dijk": { "opponents": [ "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ronald Araújo": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alisson": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Olivier Boscagli": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Cody Gakpo", "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak", "Cody Gakpo", "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pascal Groß": { "opponents": [ "Virgil van Dijk", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chema Andrés": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Ronald Araújo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Maxim De Cuyper": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lewis Dunk": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Florian Wirtz vs Yasin Ayari). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.24, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "ha_source": "default", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9459, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1261, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9087, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9032, "home_midfield_factor": 1.021, "away_midfield_factor": 0.977, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8204, "away_avg_quality": 0.6837, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1367, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.7426, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6207, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.2171, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2779, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1528, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0889, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2409, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2932 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.021, "result": 1.3203 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3203 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.5184 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9035, "result": 1.3719 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8767, "result": 1.2027 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9087, "result": 1.093 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.273 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.273, "result": 1.273, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2779, "factor": 1.1528, "pre": 1.273, "result": 1.4675 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4675 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.688 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 2.0359 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.0359, "result": 2.036, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 2.24 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 2.24, "result": 2.2559, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 2.256 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.256 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 2.256, "result": 2.256, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 2.256 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8182, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9761 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.977, "result": 0.9537 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9537 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9537 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1351, "result": 1.0825 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9459, "result": 1.024 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9032, "result": 0.9249 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1261, "result": 1.051 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.051, "result": 1.051, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2779, "factor": 0.9111, "pre": 1.051, "result": 0.9575 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9575 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1687, "result": 1.1267 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.4483, "result": 1.5724 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.5724, "result": 1.572, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.525 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.525, "result": 1.5142, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.514 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.514 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.514, "result": 1.514, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.514 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1687, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.448, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.256, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.514, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.0359, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5724, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.256, "final_away_lambda": 1.514 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9035, "attack_index": 1.011, "defense_concede_index": 0.772, "form_multiplier": 0.982, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.47, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.12, "team_ppg": 1.55, "opponent_ppg": 1.86 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1351, "attack_index": 1.393, "defense_concede_index": 0.973, "form_multiplier": 1.018, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.02, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.41, "team_ppg": 1.86, "opponent_ppg": 1.55 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Liverpool vs Brighton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.036, Away 1.572). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.256, Away 1.514 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Liverpool FC", "away_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.448, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.256, "away_lambda": 1.514, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.036, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.572 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T13:31:38Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }