{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man Utd", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0966, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0966, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0698, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man Utd", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2461, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1162 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0966 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0944 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0797 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0698 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0603, "0-1": 0.0698, "0-2": 0.0418, "0-3": 0.0165, "0-4": 0.0049, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.0966, "1-1": 0.1162, "1-2": 0.0684, "1-3": 0.027, "1-4": 0.008, "1-5": 0.0019, "2-0": 0.0797, "2-1": 0.0944, "2-2": 0.056, "2-3": 0.0221, "2-4": 0.0065, "2-5": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0435, "3-1": 0.0515, "3-2": 0.0305, "3-3": 0.0121, "3-4": 0.0036, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0178, "4-1": 0.0211, "4-2": 0.0125, "4-3": 0.0049, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0058, "5-1": 0.0069, "5-2": 0.0041, "5-3": 0.0016, "6-0": 0.0016, "6-1": 0.0019, "6-2": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.478, "draw": 0.2461, "away_win": 0.2758 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5355, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4645, "btts_yes": 0.5598, "btts_no": 0.4402, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3057, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1948 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 7.1, "ATR": 6.95, "GK": 6.96 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.87, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 7.0, "GK": 6.88 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man Utd vs Bournemouth. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Man Utd 4W-4D-2L vs Bournemouth over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Bruno Fernandes", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Carlos Baleba vs Tyler Adams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.01, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.636, "away_lambda": 1.185, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 1.0143, "away_multiplier": 0.9857 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1162, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.478, "draw": 0.2461, "away_win": 0.2758 }, "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.478, "fair_spread": 0.451, "fair_total": 2.821, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.636, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.185, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5355, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5598, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3057, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1948, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.4369, "probability": 0.354, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Rayan (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.2069, "probability": 0.1869, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.2877, "probability": 0.25, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.1557, "probability": 0.1442, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.821, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 910, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.3, "possession_home_pct": 51.9, "possession_away_pct": 48.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.478, "script": "Man Utd is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.45 goals and fair total 2.82.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Bournemouth must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man Utd lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man Utd chance creation leans on Bryan Mbeumo against Adam Smith, James Hill in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Bruno Fernandes; bench watchlist: Benjamin Šeško, Kobbie Mainoo, Patrick Dorgu.", "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Alex Scott, Eli Junior Kroupi, Álvaro Rodriguez.", "Assist usage should flow through Bryan Mbeumo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man Utd tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.41 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Bournemouth is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man Utd.", "Bournemouth wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man Utd": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bryan Mbeumo": { "player_id": 927083, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 73000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4369, "goal_rate": 0.3477, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1808, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 6.9876, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 11.2267, "dispossessed": 0.7094, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5374, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1183, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Smith, James Hill", "opponent_faced": "Adam Smith, James Hill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.354, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1654, "finishing_factor": 0.914, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Man Utd", "opponent": "Leeds", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6451, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Man Utd", "away_team": "Tottenham", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Man Utd", "opponent": "Tottenham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2439, "expected_assists": 0.1011, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363652, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2709, "expected_assists": 0.2464, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4885, "expected_assists": 0.0784, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363259, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0502, "expected_assists": 0.0346, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363253, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.758, "expected_assists": 0.2115, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4969, "expected_assists": 0.2278, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9174, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.5675, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 318, "combined_rank_score": 216.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 203.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9876, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "ranking": 313 }, { "player_name": "Bojan Ciger", "ranking": 314 }, { "player_name": "Juan Musso", "ranking": 315 }, { "player_name": "Ju-kong Kim", "ranking": 316 }, { "player_name": "Jae-yong Bak", "ranking": 317 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 319 }, { "player_name": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "ranking": 320 }, { "player_name": "Mario Rivas", "ranking": 321 }, { "player_name": "Nico Paz", "ranking": 322 }, { "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking": 323 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", 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"model_output": 2.573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7492 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1847 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1542 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1008 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0837 } ], "others": 0.3099, "total": 2.573, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.749187 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.184735 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.154248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100773 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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0.053476 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.04763 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.046917 } ], "others_margin": 0.156036 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.9778, "expected_assists": 0.2536, "assists": 0.3668, "assist_rate": 0.3668, "expected_goals": 0.2997, "goals": 0.3959, "goal_rate": 0.3959, "shots_on_target": 0.8035, "total_shots": 2.5926, "rating": 7.4036, "minutes": 89.49, "total_pass": 60.6685, "accurate_pass": 50.6184, "duels_won": 2.0578, "total_long_balls": 6.3025, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8817, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0105, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9527, "total_opp_half_passes": 43.658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35.6658, "crosses_total": 7.2191, "crosses_accurate": 2.0134, "touches": 78.3424, "possession_lost": 18.0326, "dispossessed": 0.7445, "duels_lost": 3.6246, "aerial_won": 0.3391, "aerial_lost": 0.4303, "interceptions": 0.3191, "tackles_won": 0.8454, "tackles": 1.1749, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goals": 0.1724, "goal_rate": 0.1724, "shots_on_target": 0.5727, "total_shots": 1.5386, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "key_pass": 1.1177, "rating": 6.914, "minutes": 80.49, "total_pass": 28.3944, "accurate_pass": 25.0851, "duels_won": 3.6661, "total_long_balls": 0.65, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5431, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2555, "crosses_total": 1.1624, "crosses_accurate": 0.2382, "touches": 43.6948, "possession_lost": 8.6263, "dispossessed": 0.8026, "duels_lost": 4.4146, "aerial_lost": 0.4179, "total_contest": 2.752, "won_contest": 1.1859, "ball_recovery": 3.8463, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 1.0842, "fouls_drawn": 0.9405, "assists": 0.167, "assist_rate": 0.167, "interceptions": 0.6804, "tackles_won": 0.6938, "tackles": 1.0305, "clearances": 0.6479, "blocks": 0.1181, "big_chances_created": 0.3602, "big_chances_missed": 0.2228, "xgot": 0.1822, "offsides": 0.2886, "ball_carries": 15.5429, "total_progression": 73.7418, "progressive_carries": 3.5717, "shots_off_target": 0.9659 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.113, "goals": 0.1724, "goal_rate": 0.1724, "shots_on_target": 0.5727, "total_shots": 1.5386, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "key_pass": 1.1177, "rating": 6.914, "minutes": 80.49, "total_pass": 28.3944, "accurate_pass": 25.0851, "duels_won": 3.6661, "total_long_balls": 0.65, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5431, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2555, 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2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Adam Smith, James Hill", "opponent_faced": "Adam Smith, James Hill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adam Smith, James Hill", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0691, "skill_edge": 0.083, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.8002, "defender_skill": 0.6158, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Adam Smith", "market_value": 310000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "James Hill", "market_value": 32000000, 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28.3944, "accurate_pass": 25.0851, "duels_won": 3.6661, "total_long_balls": 0.65, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5431, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2555, "crosses_total": 1.1624, "crosses_accurate": 0.2382, "touches": 43.6948, "possession_lost": 8.6263, "dispossessed": 0.8026, "duels_lost": 4.4146, "aerial_lost": 0.4179, "total_contest": 2.752, "won_contest": 1.1859, "ball_recovery": 3.8463, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 1.0842, "fouls_drawn": 0.9405, "assist_rate": 0.167, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6804, "tackles_won": 0.6938, "tackles": 1.0305, "clearances": 0.6479, "blocks": 0.1181, "big_chances_created": 0.3602, "big_chances_missed": 0.2382, "xgot": 0.1948, "offsides": 0.2886, "ball_carries": 15.5429, "total_progression": 73.7418, "progressive_carries": 3.5717, "shots_off_target": 1.0326, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0691, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.247, 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0.5431, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2555, "crosses_total": 1.1624, "crosses_accurate": 0.2382, "touches": 43.6948, "possession_lost": 8.6263, "dispossessed": 0.8026, "duels_lost": 4.4146, "aerial_lost": 0.4179, "total_contest": 2.752, "won_contest": 1.1859, "ball_recovery": 3.8463, "challenges_lost": 0.5931, "fouls": 1.0842, "fouls_drawn": 0.9405, "assist_rate": 0.167, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6804, "tackles_won": 0.6938, "tackles": 1.0305, "clearances": 0.6479, "blocks": 0.1181, "big_chances_created": 0.3602, "big_chances_missed": 0.2382, "xgot": 0.2211, "offsides": 0.2886, "ball_carries": 15.5429, "total_progression": 73.7418, "progressive_carries": 3.5717, "shots_off_target": 1.0326, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0691, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", 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0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1308 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0659 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0516 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0212 } ], "others": -0.0655, "total": 0.8868, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130826 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065876 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.051587 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.030324 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.021211 } ], "others_margin": -0.065491 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.844720840454102, "model_output": 6.8447, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0057 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 6.8447, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030089 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.02103 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010032 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.006343 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.005733 } ], "others_margin": -0.011165 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0147, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7515, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.0436, "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0665, "shots_on_target": 0.2807, "total_shots": 0.8999, "rating": 6.8447, "minutes": 74.3, "total_pass": 34.9136, "accurate_pass": 30.2164, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.7989, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6527, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6597, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.5164, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2539, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7001, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.4963, "possession_lost": 7.9691, "dispossessed": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 4.8695, "aerial_won": 1.7016, "aerial_lost": 1.2005, "interceptions": 1.0755, "tackles_won": 0.9094, "tackles": 1.4992, "clearances": 1.6154, "total_contest": 1.1669, "won_contest": 0.5261, "challenges_lost": 0.8981, "fouls": 1.1545, "fouls_drawn": 1.0956, "blocks": 0.5373, "big_chances_created": 0.115, "big_chances_missed": 0.088, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 13.6048, "total_progression": 26.2859, "progressive_carries": 0.7663, "shots_off_target": 0.6192 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0147, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7515, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.0436, "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0665, "shots_on_target": 0.2807, "total_shots": 0.8999, "rating": 6.8447, "minutes": 74.3, "total_pass": 34.9136, "accurate_pass": 30.2164, "duels_won": 4.8226, "total_long_balls": 2.7989, 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"total": 6.9076, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035292 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.030263 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021721 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.020088 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.01696 } ], "others_margin": -0.065579 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5193, "expected_assists": 0.0472, "assists": 0.0424, "assist_rate": 0.0424, "expected_goals": 0.0517, "goals": 0.0713, "goal_rate": 0.0713, "shots_on_target": 0.1548, "total_shots": 0.5249, "rating": 6.9076, "minutes": 75.13, "total_pass": 48.0566, "accurate_pass": 44.356, "duels_won": 4.4266, "total_long_balls": 1.2565, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6456, "total_own_half_passes": 23.7356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.0116, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.321, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3443, "crosses_total": 0.104, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.2267, "possession_lost": 4.5948, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0748, "aerial_won": 0.9116, "aerial_lost": 0.7604, "interceptions": 0.9241, "tackles_won": 1.4288, "tackles": 2.1196, "clearances": 1.1569, 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0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3653 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.063 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.024 } ], "others": 0.0668, "total": 0.9888, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.365285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063001 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.026352 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024956 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.024045 } ], "others_margin": 0.066724 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755066871643066, "model_output": 6.7551, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0288, "total": 6.7551, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037658 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023253 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016289 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010865 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010183 } ], "others_margin": -0.028865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0067, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0008, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.1111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 0.9954, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8429, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1252, "fouls_drawn": 0.5123, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.023, "assist_rate": 0.023, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1837, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7451, "total_progression": 53.4387, "progressive_carries": 1.5726, "key_pass": 1.2438, "shots_off_target": 0.8117 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0067, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0044)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0059, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8587, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.51, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1875, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7451, "total_progression": 53.4387, "progressive_carries": 1.5726, "key_pass": 1.2438, "shots_off_target": 0.8117 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0044, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9731, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8429, "after": 1.8587 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9954, "after": 1.0095 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0008, "after": 1.0059 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0059, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8587, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.51, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1875, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7451, "total_progression": 53.4387, "progressive_carries": 1.5726, "key_pass": 1.2438, "shots_off_target": 0.8117 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0059, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8587, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.51, "blocks": 0.2888, "goals": 0.003, "goal_rate": 0.003, "assists": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1875, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7451, "total_progression": 53.4387, "progressive_carries": 1.5726, "key_pass": 1.2438, "shots_off_target": 0.8117, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right 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"dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.51, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0695, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "shots_on_target": 0.1875, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0537, "ball_carries": 11.7451, "total_progression": 53.4387, "progressive_carries": 1.5726, "key_pass": 1.2438, "shots_off_target": 0.8117, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 1.4417, xG scale 1.1348, xA scale 1.1348, team xA 1.12 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0059, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8587, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.51, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0789, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.1875, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0609, "ball_carries": 11.7451, "total_progression": 53.4387, "progressive_carries": 1.5726, "key_pass": 1.2438, "shots_off_target": 0.8117, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.636, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4417, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9865, "team_expected_assists": 1.1195, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6843, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1348, "xa_scale": 1.1348, "opponent_lambda": 1.185, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0695, "after": 0.0789 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0658, "after": 0.0747 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0059, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8587, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.51, "blocks": 0.2888, "goal_rate": 0.003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0789, "expected_assists": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.1875, "big_chances_created": 0.1764, "xgot": 0.0609, "ball_carries": 11.7451, "total_progression": 53.4387, "progressive_carries": 1.5726, "key_pass": 1.2438, "shots_off_target": 0.8117, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623, "opponent_faced": "Justin Kluivert", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2123, "fifa_rank": 1095.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0059, "tackles": 1.9065, "tackles_won": 1.111, "clearances": 2.3501, "aerial_won": 1.007, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 39.8782, "accurate_pass": 34.2595, "duels_won": 4.2034, "total_long_balls": 2.5928, "accurate_long_balls": 0.995, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.358, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.9636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9015, "crosses_total": 1.8587, "crosses_accurate": 0.4919, "touches": 58.8487, "possession_lost": 10.0209, "dispossessed": 0.2309, "duels_lost": 3.1902, "aerial_lost": 0.4427, "total_contest": 1.3977, "won_contest": 0.6, "ball_recovery": 5.1482, "challenges_lost": 0.5937, "fouls": 1.1202, "fouls_drawn": 0.51, "blocks": 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{ "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1752 } ], "others": -0.0531, "total": 4.9763, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122504 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.116229 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.051819 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050513 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.035458 } ], "others_margin": -0.010625 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.338836908340454, "model_output": 2.3388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.6759 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2383 }, { "name": 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1688 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0523 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": 0.0478, "total": 0.7606, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.168758 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052251 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.028306 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.020442 } ], "others_margin": 0.047864 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.858523845672607, "model_output": 6.8585, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0151, "total": 6.8585, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029712 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019737 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013119 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011761 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.010157 } ], "others_margin": 0.015142 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"goal_rate": 0.0053, "assists": 0.0391, "assist_rate": 0.0391, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.1655, "big_chances_created": 0.12, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 23.1302, "total_progression": 118.4966, "progressive_carries": 1.5945, "key_pass": 0.4456, "shots_off_target": 0.5951 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0131)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0268, "tackles": 1.1713, "tackles_won": 0.7039, "clearances": 4.9763, "aerial_won": 2.3388, "total_shots": 0.7701, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 89.05, "total_pass": 55.7864, "accurate_pass": 49.5305, "duels_won": 5.2004, "total_long_balls": 5.7404, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8927, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8334, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4303, 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0.7606, "after": 0.7701 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7133, "after": 0.7039 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0207, "after": 1.0268 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.5972, "after": 0.6023 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0268, "tackles": 1.1713, "tackles_won": 0.7039, "clearances": 4.9763, "aerial_won": 2.3388, "total_shots": 0.7701, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 89.05, "total_pass": 55.7864, "accurate_pass": 49.5305, "duels_won": 5.2004, "total_long_balls": 5.7404, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8927, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8334, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4303, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.953, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1002, "crosses_total": 0.6023, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 67.9291, "possession_lost": 7.1692, "dispossessed": 0.0036, "duels_lost": 2.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.0664, "total_contest": 0.3695, "won_contest": 0.3477, 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"matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0268, "tackles": 1.1713, "tackles_won": 0.7039, "clearances": 4.9763, "aerial_won": 2.3388, "total_shots": 0.7701, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 89.05, "total_pass": 55.7864, "accurate_pass": 49.5305, "duels_won": 5.2004, "total_long_balls": 5.7404, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8927, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8334, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4303, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.953, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1002, "crosses_total": 0.6023, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 67.9291, "possession_lost": 7.1692, "dispossessed": 0.0036, "duels_lost": 2.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.0664, "total_contest": 0.3695, "won_contest": 0.3477, "ball_recovery": 3.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.4056, "fouls": 1.1736, "fouls_drawn": 0.8368, "blocks": 0.5061, "goal_rate": 0.0052, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "expected_assists": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.1698, "big_chances_created": 0.12, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 23.1302, "total_progression": 118.4966, "progressive_carries": 1.5945, "key_pass": 0.4456, "shots_off_target": 0.5951, "opponent_faced": "Marcus Tavernier", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 1.4417, xG scale 1.1348, xA scale 1.1348, team xA 1.12 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0268, "tackles": 1.1713, "tackles_won": 0.7039, "clearances": 4.9763, "aerial_won": 2.3388, "total_shots": 0.7701, "rating": 6.8585, "minutes": 89.05, "total_pass": 55.7864, "accurate_pass": 49.5305, "duels_won": 5.2004, "total_long_balls": 5.7404, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8927, "total_own_half_passes": 31.8334, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.4303, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.953, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1002, "crosses_total": 0.6023, "crosses_accurate": 0.239, "touches": 67.9291, "possession_lost": 7.1692, "dispossessed": 0.0036, "duels_lost": 2.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.0664, "total_contest": 0.3695, "won_contest": 0.3477, "ball_recovery": 3.8647, "challenges_lost": 0.4056, "fouls": 1.1736, "fouls_drawn": 0.8368, "blocks": 0.5061, "goal_rate": 0.0052, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0386, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0496, "expected_assists": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.1698, "big_chances_created": 0.12, "xgot": 0.0203, "ball_carries": 23.1302, "total_progression": 118.4966, "progressive_carries": 1.5945, "key_pass": 0.4456, "shots_off_target": 0.5951, "opponent_faced": "Marcus Tavernier", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8189 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.636, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4417, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9865, "team_expected_assists": 1.1195, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6843, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1348, "xa_scale": 1.1348, "opponent_lambda": 1.185, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0437, "after": 0.0496 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0582, "after": 0.066 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2759 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1677 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1423 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1236 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1113 } ], "others": 0.0273, "total": 1.4311, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.222728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141165 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.105916 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.091311 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.08258 } ], "others_margin": 0.019245 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4886608123779297, "model_output": 0.4887, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0604 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.4887, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.060385 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.019788 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015205 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.012815 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009585 } ], "others_margin": -0.025038 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.775594711303711, "model_output": 6.7756, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0048, "total": 6.7756, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018883 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01388 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010854 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8007, "tackles": 1.3942, "tackles_won": 0.8473, "clearances": 4.0585, "aerial_won": 1.4522, "total_shots": 0.4959, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 49.4095, "accurate_pass": 44.619, "duels_won": 5.0538, "total_long_balls": 3.2711, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3941, "total_own_half_passes": 34.1933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2949, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3241, "crosses_total": 0.0927, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.4086, "possession_lost": 5.6984, "dispossessed": 0.2258, "duels_lost": 2.5339, "aerial_lost": 1.164, "total_contest": 0.7169, "won_contest": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 3.4497, "challenges_lost": 0.4, "fouls": 0.5747, "fouls_drawn": 1.1902, "blocks": 0.7824, "goals": 0.0, 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60.4086, "possession_lost": 5.6984, "dispossessed": 0.2258, "duels_lost": 2.5339, "aerial_lost": 1.164, "total_contest": 0.7169, "won_contest": 0.5475, "ball_recovery": 3.4497, "challenges_lost": 0.4, "fouls": 0.5782, "fouls_drawn": 1.1968, "blocks": 0.7824, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0505, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.7751, "total_progression": 50.859, "progressive_carries": 0.6388, "key_pass": 0.0411, "shots_off_target": 0.4959, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805, "opponent_faced": "Rayan", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 1.4417, xG scale 1.1348, xA scale 1.1348, team xA 1.12 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7932, "tackles": 1.3942, "tackles_won": 0.8393, "clearances": 4.0585, "aerial_won": 1.4522, "total_shots": 0.5091, "rating": 6.7756, "minutes": 85.13, "total_pass": 49.4095, "accurate_pass": 44.619, "duels_won": 5.0538, "total_long_balls": 3.2711, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3941, "total_own_half_passes": 34.1933, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.2949, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3241, "crosses_total": 0.0918, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.4086, "possession_lost": 5.6984, "dispossessed": 0.2258, "duels_lost": 2.5339, "aerial_lost": 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90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-04", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.1598, "aerialWon": 0.9202, "totalClearance_p90": 6.1099, "totalTackle": 0.8758, "totalPass": 21.1325 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.2265160083770752, "model_output": 1.2265, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1085 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0606 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0443 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0355 } ], "others": 0.0289, "total": 0.8987, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119599 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.065003 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.047959 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04461 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.040044 } ], "others_margin": 0.032742 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.397176742553711, "model_output": 3.3972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.6055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4364 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.3412 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1912 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1236 } ], "others": 0.1413, "total": 3.3972, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.192889 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142648 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.109774 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.062984 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.038707 } ], "others_margin": 0.042486 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.320113182067871, "model_output": 1.3201, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2969 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1533 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1091 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.1088 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0876 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 1.3201, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.241846 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132162 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.092175 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.091995 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.068344 } ], "others_margin": -0.004315 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3955887258052826, "model_output": 0.3956, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0939 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0471 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0155 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 0.3956, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093895 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04711 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033395 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017961 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015478 } ], "others_margin": -0.028714 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.638256549835205, "model_output": 6.6383, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0321 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0265 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0335, "total": 6.6383, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.03213 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.026532 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024265 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016008 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.014409 } ], "others_margin": -0.033531 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0110, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.24, "tackles": 1.6375, "tackles_won": 0.9086, "clearances": 3.4345, "aerial_won": 1.3346, "total_shots": 0.4, "rating": 6.6383, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 48.2051, "accurate_pass": 42.8425, "duels_won": 4.3764, "total_long_balls": 2.9772, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4199, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7198, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8339, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0087, "crosses_total": 0.1561, "crosses_accurate": 0.014, "touches": 61.2354, "possession_lost": 6.6441, "dispossessed": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 3.2564, "aerial_lost": 2.041, "total_contest": 0.1602, "won_contest": 0.1602, "ball_recovery": 3.8606, "challenges_lost": 0.3016, "fouls": 0.8603, "fouls_drawn": 0.4231, "blocks": 0.4303, "goals": 0.0, 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0.1066, "expected_assists": 0.0539, "shots_on_target": 0.3187, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.194, "ball_carries": 18.1835, "total_progression": 84.0239, "progressive_carries": 0.8805, "key_pass": 0.2353, "shots_off_target": 0.0809 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2491, "tackles": 1.6375, "tackles_won": 0.9076, "clearances": 3.4345, "aerial_won": 1.3346, "total_shots": 0.3996, "rating": 6.6383, "minutes": 85.37, "total_pass": 48.2051, "accurate_pass": 42.8425, "duels_won": 4.3764, "total_long_balls": 2.9772, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4199, "total_own_half_passes": 28.7198, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.8339, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0087, "crosses_total": 0.1559, "crosses_accurate": 0.014, "touches": 61.2354, "possession_lost": 6.6441, 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"player_name": "Demethryus", "ranking": 548 }, { "player_name": "Pil-su Choi", "ranking": 549 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Mayol", "ranking": 550 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Arce", "ranking": 552 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Panach Olmo", "ranking": 553 }, { "player_name": "Edu Altozano", "ranking": 554 }, { "player_name": "Joseph Otunenche", "ranking": 555 }, { "player_name": "Dean Huijsen", "ranking": 556 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", 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"name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": -0.1408, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040445 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.025442 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.020023 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.014205 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.013585 } ], "others_margin": -0.037667 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.959001064300537, "model_output": 6.959, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0582, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0421, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0357, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.6024, "aerialWon": 1.2278, "totalClearance_p90": 3.7739, "totalTackle": 1.1542, "totalPass": 67.1044 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3015778064727783, "model_output": 0.3016, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { 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"importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.692 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.566, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.686026 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.045667 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.02927 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.021186 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.020486 } ], "others_margin": -0.098556 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4109939634799957, "model_output": 0.411, 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"others_margin": -0.027073 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7900774478912354, "model_output": 1.7901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0133 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1647 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1319 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0663 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0599 } ], "others": 0.0618, "total": 1.7901, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.875421 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.108401 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.079077 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.227162 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.168812 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02358 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022528 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.018253 } ], "others_margin": -0.023079 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.950094223022461, "model_output": 6.9501, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0815 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0797 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0253 } ], "others": 0.0634, "total": 6.9501, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.081546 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079687 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.043984 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.030526 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025285 } ], "others_margin": 0.063308 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0173, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3068, "tackles": 0.5758, "tackles_won": 0.4181, "clearances": 1.821, "aerial_won": 0.6345, "total_shots": 0.462, "rating": 6.9501, "minutes": 21.92, "total_pass": 19.0461, "accurate_pass": 16.5338, "duels_won": 1.2522, "total_long_balls": 3.0474, "accurate_long_balls": 1.211, "total_own_half_passes": 9.1815, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.662, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8647, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8719, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.0064, "possession_lost": 2.9551, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0837, "aerial_lost": 0.3666, "total_contest": 0.641, "won_contest": 0.3666, "ball_recovery": 2.1604, "challenges_lost": 0.1685, "fouls": 0.2743, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2025-11-30", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1706, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-24", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.145, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-08", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1233, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-01", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1048, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-10-25", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0891, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-10-19", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0757, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-10-04", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0644, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0547, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-20", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0465, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-09-14", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0395, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 13.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.258, "aerialWon": 4.0969, "totalClearance_p90": 5.258, "totalTackle": 1.1825, "totalPass": 48.2269 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.43471160531044006, "model_output": 0.4347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ 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"aerialWon", "predicted": 1.305565357208252, "model_output": 1.3056, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8022 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.3761 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1089 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0732 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0664 } ], "others": 0.1012, "total": 1.3056, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.868559 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.499964 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.107866 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.066509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056732 } ], "others_margin": 0.080571 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.32982274889945984, "model_output": 0.3298, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2425 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.146 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0276, "total": 0.3298, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.242455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.145952 }, { "name": 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0.037841 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037742 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026365 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017895 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.014309 } ], "others_margin": 0.03925 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0189, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4429, "tackles": 0.5769, "tackles_won": 0.3965, "clearances": 1.9124, "aerial_won": 1.3302, "total_shots": 0.3361, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 49.1384, "accurate_pass": 43.1208, "duels_won": 5.7319, "total_long_balls": 3.3374, "accurate_long_balls": 1.363, "total_own_half_passes": 33.3646, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7737, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.9462, "crosses_total": 0.3146, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 62.6255, "possession_lost": 7.0544, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 3.5328, "aerial_lost": 2.5491, "total_contest": 0.0816, "won_contest": 0.0474, "ball_recovery": 2.9522, "challenges_lost": 0.4748, "fouls": 0.4262, "fouls_drawn": 0.3527, "blocks": 0.3935, "goals": 0.1256, 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3627, "tackles": 0.4724, "tackles_won": 0.3247, "clearances": 1.5659, "aerial_won": 1.0892, "total_shots": 0.2752, "rating": 6.9058, "minutes": 14.74, "total_pass": 40.2356, "accurate_pass": 35.3083, "duels_won": 4.6934, "total_long_balls": 2.7327, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1161, "total_own_half_passes": 27.3197, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.5264, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9158, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7818, "crosses_total": 0.2576, "crosses_accurate": 0.2189, "touches": 51.2791, "possession_lost": 5.7763, "dispossessed": 0.1256, "duels_lost": 2.8927, "aerial_lost": 2.5491, "total_contest": 0.0668, "won_contest": 0.0388, "ball_recovery": 2.4173, "challenges_lost": 0.4748, "fouls": 0.349, "fouls_drawn": 0.2888, "blocks": 0.3222, "goals": 0.1028, "goal_rate": 0.1028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1091, "expected_assists": 0.0529, 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{ "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1298 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 0.1196, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.512056 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.100887 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074316 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.066024 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045345 } ], "others_margin": -0.197677 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3446977138519287, "model_output": 0.3447, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4027 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0274 } ], "others": -0.0949, "total": 0.3447, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.402732 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.060942 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.031978 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027853 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027378 } ], "others_margin": -0.094884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.057325839996338, "model_output": 7.0573, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.154 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1061 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0283 } ], "others": 0.0185, "total": 7.0573, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.153962 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.106122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082164 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.031524 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.028298 } ], "others_margin": 0.018631 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.6804, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.1716, "fouls": 0.3892, "fouls_drawn": 0.3939, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0353, "total_progression": 35.8472, "progressive_carries": 0.6203, "shots_off_target": 0.2284 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6047, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "assists": 0.0539, "assist_rate": 0.0539, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.1206, "total_shots": 0.3523, "rating": 7.0573, "minutes": 19.4, "total_pass": 17.2808, "accurate_pass": 15.2329, "duels_won": 1.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.6009, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2625, 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8867, "total_progression": 44.1068, "progressive_carries": 0.7632, "shots_off_target": 0.281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.87 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.87, "projection_minutes": 19.4, "minutes_scale": 1.2304, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.744, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "goals": 0.0486, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.1484, "total_shots": 0.4335, "rating": 7.0573, "minutes": 23.87, "total_pass": 21.2625, "accurate_pass": 18.7427, "duels_won": 1.8305, "total_long_balls": 0.7394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.323, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.453, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5748, 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"total_progression": 44.1068, "progressive_carries": 0.7632, "shots_off_target": 0.281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.87, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.536, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 1.4417, xG scale 1.1348, xA scale 1.1348, team xA 1.12 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.744, "expected_assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0223, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 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"projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.536, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1359, "creation_factor": 1.0283 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.636, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4417, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9865, "team_expected_assists": 1.1195, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6843, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1348, "xa_scale": 1.1348, "opponent_lambda": 1.185, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0368, "after": 0.0223 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0631, "after": 0.0383 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7231, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Patrick Dorgu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Asror Gafurov", "ranking": 1482 }, { "player_name": "Bojan Mlađović", "ranking": 1483 }, { "player_name": "Farkhod Sokhibzhonov", "ranking": 1484 }, { "player_name": "Florian Lejeune", "ranking": 1485 }, { "player_name": "Dimitrios Valkanis", "ranking": 1486 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Quinten Timber", "ranking": 1488 }, { "player_name": "Jon Pacheco", "ranking": 1489 }, { "player_name": "Brahim Díaz", "ranking": 1490 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Assadi", "ranking": 1491 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Cristante", "ranking": 1492 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.756, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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0.3376, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.524544 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.212907 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.115366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.088695 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.078136 } ], "others_margin": 0.070554 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8767735958099365, "model_output": 0.8768, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1912 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.037 } ], "others": 0.0638, "total": 0.8768, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.191233 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064013 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.037155 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036967 } ], "others_margin": 0.063885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723105430603027, "model_output": 6.7231, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 6.7231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03781 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020392 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017046 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.00955 } ], "others_margin": -0.010719 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assists": 0.0875, "assist_rate": 0.0875, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goals": 0.1305, "goal_rate": 0.1305, "shots_on_target": 0.3409, "total_shots": 0.8853, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 15.45, "total_pass": 6.7818, "accurate_pass": 5.2415, "duels_won": 2.124, "total_long_balls": 0.487, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1628, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5767, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6648, "crosses_total": 0.6485, "crosses_accurate": 0.046, "touches": 13.2473, "possession_lost": 3.8887, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.3601, "aerial_won": 1.1291, "aerial_lost": 0.2254, "interceptions": 0.1481, "tackles_won": 0.2187, "tackles": 0.4604, "clearances": 0.8007, "total_contest": 0.3738, "won_contest": 0.1669, "challenges_lost": 0.2436, "fouls": 0.3987, "fouls_drawn": 0.3676, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.0496, "ball_carries": 3.6588, "total_progression": 12.4198, "progressive_carries": 0.7428, "shots_off_target": 0.5444 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assists": 0.0872, "assist_rate": 0.0872, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goals": 0.13, "goal_rate": 0.13, "shots_on_target": 0.3407, "total_shots": 0.8871, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 15.45, "total_pass": 6.7818, "accurate_pass": 5.2415, "duels_won": 2.124, "total_long_balls": 0.487, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1628, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5767, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6648, "crosses_total": 0.6462, "crosses_accurate": 0.046, "touches": 13.2473, "possession_lost": 3.8887, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.3601, "aerial_won": 1.1291, "aerial_lost": 0.2254, "interceptions": 0.1476, "tackles_won": 0.2189, "tackles": 0.4604, "clearances": 0.8007, "total_contest": 0.3738, "won_contest": 0.1669, "challenges_lost": 0.2436, "fouls": 0.4014, "fouls_drawn": 0.3663, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.0496, "ball_carries": 3.6588, "total_progression": 12.4198, "progressive_carries": 0.7428, "shots_off_target": 0.5444 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0036, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1717, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9067, "crosses_total": 0.6889, "crosses_accurate": 0.049, "touches": 14.1219, "possession_lost": 4.1454, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.4499, "aerial_won": 1.2036, "aerial_lost": 0.2254, "interceptions": 0.1573, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4908, "clearances": 0.8536, "total_contest": 0.3985, "won_contest": 0.1779, "challenges_lost": 0.2436, "fouls": 0.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.3905, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1344, "xgot": 0.0529, "ball_carries": 3.9004, "total_progression": 13.2397, "progressive_carries": 0.7918, "shots_off_target": 0.5803, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.524, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7148, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "assist_rate": 0.093, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0699, "goal_rate": 0.1386, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3632, "total_shots": 0.9457, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 16.47, "total_pass": 7.2295, "accurate_pass": 5.5875, "duels_won": 2.2642, "total_long_balls": 0.5192, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1735, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9619, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6808, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2676, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9067, "crosses_total": 0.6889, "crosses_accurate": 0.049, "touches": 14.1219, "possession_lost": 4.1454, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.4499, "aerial_won": 1.2036, "aerial_lost": 0.2254, "interceptions": 0.1573, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4908, "clearances": 0.8536, "total_contest": 0.3985, "won_contest": 0.1779, "challenges_lost": 0.2436, "fouls": 0.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.3905, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1344, "xgot": 0.0529, "ball_carries": 3.9004, 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0.2702, "tackles": 1.1286, "clearances": 0.3179, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3938, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.068, "offsides": 0.2702, "ball_carries": 4.6, "total_progression": 34.6492, "progressive_carries": 1.0131, "shots_off_target": 0.7829 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 79000000, "quality_factor": 0.8811, "boost_factor": 1.0131, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0091)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.082, "goals": 0.0949, "goal_rate": 0.0949, "shots_on_target": 0.3492, "total_shots": 1.1287, "expected_assists": 0.106, "key_pass": 1.0049, "rating": 6.8276, "minutes": 21.56, "total_pass": 8.4084, "accurate_pass": 6.4167, "duels_won": 3.275, "total_long_balls": 0.4655, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2703, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2002, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7966, "crosses_total": 0.4661, 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"importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0054 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0081, "total": 0.0138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412845 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.309101 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.188413 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.087467 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.078116 } ], "others_margin": -0.461735 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.28139376640319824, "model_output": 0.2814, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2809 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.2814, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.539121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088435 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071664 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.045091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044448 } ], "others_margin": -0.084682 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.624018669128418, "model_output": 6.624, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0139, "total": 6.624, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.021042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017415 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014117 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011135 } ], "others_margin": -0.013682 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1262, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.4014, "total_shots": 1.0227, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2854, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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0.1397, "goals": 0.1636, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, 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"duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.536, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 1.4417, xG scale 1.1348, xA scale 1.1348, team xA 1.12 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1197, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1648, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.536, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.126, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.636, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4417, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9865, "team_expected_assists": 1.1195, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6843, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1348, "xa_scale": 1.1348, "opponent_lambda": 1.185, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1397, "after": 0.1197 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Teidi", "ranking": 1119 }, { "player_name": "Tornike Dzebniauri", "ranking": 1120 }, { "player_name": "Ho-in Lee", "ranking": 1121 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", 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"contribution": -0.2809 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.2814, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.539121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088435 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071664 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.045091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044448 } ], "others_margin": -0.084682 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.624018669128418, "model_output": 6.624, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0139, "total": 6.624, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06075 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.021042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017415 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014117 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011135 } ], "others_margin": -0.013682 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1262, "goals": 0.1481, "goal_rate": 0.1481, "shots_on_target": 0.4014, "total_shots": 1.0227, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2854, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.6213 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1262, "goals": 0.1478, "goal_rate": 0.1478, "shots_on_target": 0.4005, "total_shots": 1.0217, "expected_assists": 0.014, "key_pass": 0.2854, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, 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0.1397, "goals": 0.1636, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 19.94, "minutes_scale": 1.1068, "appearance_probability": 0.755 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1397, "goals": 0.1636, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1397, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0155, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.536, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.64 (squad xG sum 1.4417, xG scale 1.1348, xA scale 1.1348, team xA 1.12 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1197, "goal_rate": 0.1636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4433, "total_shots": 1.131, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "key_pass": 0.3159, "rating": 6.624, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1648, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.6877, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.536, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0573, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kobbie Mainoo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nikola Šipčić", "ranking": 721 }, { "player_name": "Kwak Yun-Ho", "ranking": 722 }, { "player_name": "Ju-seong Uh", "ranking": 723 }, { "player_name": "Beom-kyeong Choi", "ranking": 724 }, { "player_name": "Song-hun Shin", "ranking": 725 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Michael Kayode", "ranking": 727 }, { "player_name": "Sava Petrov", "ranking": 728 }, { "player_name": "Brayan Rovira", "ranking": 729 }, { "player_name": "José Carabalí", "ranking": 730 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Gómez", "ranking": 731 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.761, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", 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-0.0262, "total": 0.1196, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.512056 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.100887 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074316 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.066024 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045345 } ], "others_margin": -0.197677 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3446977138519287, "model_output": 0.3447, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4027 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0274 } ], "others": -0.0949, "total": 0.3447, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.402732 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.060942 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.031978 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.027853 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027378 } ], "others_margin": -0.094884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.057325839996338, "model_output": 7.0573, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.154 }, { "name": 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0.6804, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.1716, "fouls": 0.3892, "fouls_drawn": 0.3939, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0353, "total_progression": 35.8472, "progressive_carries": 0.6203, "shots_off_target": 0.2284 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6047, "expected_assists": 0.0513, "assists": 0.0539, "assist_rate": 0.0539, "expected_goals": 0.0299, "goals": 0.0395, "goal_rate": 0.0395, "shots_on_target": 0.1206, "total_shots": 0.3523, "rating": 7.0573, "minutes": 19.4, "total_pass": 17.2808, "accurate_pass": 15.2329, "duels_won": 1.4877, "total_long_balls": 0.6009, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2625, 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8867, "total_progression": 44.1068, "progressive_carries": 0.7632, "shots_off_target": 0.281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.87 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.87, "projection_minutes": 19.4, "minutes_scale": 1.2304, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.744, "expected_assists": 0.0631, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0368, "goals": 0.0486, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.1484, "total_shots": 0.4335, "rating": 7.0573, "minutes": 23.87, "total_pass": 21.2625, "accurate_pass": 18.7427, "duels_won": 1.8305, "total_long_balls": 0.7394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.323, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.453, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5748, 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}, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.178836 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.144865 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.132176 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.103726 } ], "others_margin": 0.137714 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3375893235206604, "model_output": 0.3376, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1322 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0236 } ], "others": 0.023, "total": 0.3376, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.524544 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.212907 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.115366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.088695 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.078136 } ], "others_margin": 0.070554 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8767735958099365, "model_output": 0.8768, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1912 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.037 } ], "others": 0.0638, "total": 0.8768, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506944 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.191233 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064013 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.037155 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036967 } ], "others_margin": 0.063885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.723105430603027, "model_output": 6.7231, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0378 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0108, "total": 6.7231, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03781 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020392 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017046 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.00955 } ], "others_margin": -0.010719 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6705, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assists": 0.0875, "assist_rate": 0.0875, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "goals": 0.1305, "goal_rate": 0.1305, "shots_on_target": 0.3409, "total_shots": 0.8853, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 15.45, "total_pass": 6.7818, "accurate_pass": 5.2415, "duels_won": 2.124, "total_long_balls": 0.487, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1628, "total_own_half_passes": 1.8404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5767, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6648, "crosses_total": 0.6485, "crosses_accurate": 0.046, "touches": 13.2473, "possession_lost": 3.8887, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.3601, "aerial_won": 1.1291, "aerial_lost": 0.2254, "interceptions": 0.1481, "tackles_won": 0.2187, "tackles": 0.4604, "clearances": 0.8007, 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"total_own_half_passes": 1.8404, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5767, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9414, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6648, "crosses_total": 0.6462, "crosses_accurate": 0.046, "touches": 13.2473, "possession_lost": 3.8887, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.3601, "aerial_won": 1.1291, "aerial_lost": 0.2254, "interceptions": 0.1476, "tackles_won": 0.2189, "tackles": 0.4604, "clearances": 0.8007, "total_contest": 0.3738, "won_contest": 0.1669, "challenges_lost": 0.2436, "fouls": 0.4014, "fouls_drawn": 0.3663, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1261, "xgot": 0.0496, "ball_carries": 3.6588, "total_progression": 12.4198, "progressive_carries": 0.7428, "shots_off_target": 0.5444 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0036, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1717, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.4 to 16.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7148, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "assists": 0.093, "assist_rate": 0.093, "expected_goals": 0.0699, "goals": 0.1386, "goal_rate": 0.1386, "shots_on_target": 0.3632, "total_shots": 0.9457, "rating": 6.7231, "minutes": 16.47, "total_pass": 7.2295, "accurate_pass": 5.5875, "duels_won": 2.2642, "total_long_balls": 0.5192, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1735, "total_own_half_passes": 1.9619, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6808, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2676, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9067, "crosses_total": 0.6889, "crosses_accurate": 0.049, "touches": 14.1219, "possession_lost": 4.1454, "dispossessed": 0.3058, "duels_lost": 1.4499, "aerial_won": 1.2036, "aerial_lost": 0.2254, "interceptions": 0.1573, "tackles_won": 0.2334, "tackles": 0.4908, "clearances": 0.8536, "total_contest": 0.3985, "won_contest": 0.1779, "challenges_lost": 0.2436, "fouls": 0.4279, "fouls_drawn": 0.3905, "blocks": 0.0, 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"clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1603, "combined_rank_score": 654.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1109.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9767, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James Hill", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diyor Ortikboev", "ranking": 1598 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Tapia", "ranking": 1599 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-hyeon Son", "ranking": 1600 }, { "player_name": "Evgeniy Yablonskiy", "ranking": 1601 }, { "player_name": "Renato Huerta", "ranking": 1602 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Seong-jin Jeon", "ranking": 1604 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Retre", "ranking": 1605 }, { "player_name": "Doniyor Abdumannopov", "ranking": 1606 }, { "player_name": "Shokhmalik Komilov", "ranking": 1607 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Castellanos", "ranking": 1608 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", 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"name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0384 } ], "others": -0.0849, "total": 0.8554, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105074 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.055009 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.054011 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.049976 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.041725 } ], "others_margin": -0.094584 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.304228782653809, "model_output": 6.3042, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": 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"importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.9074 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2695 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2857 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.206 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.166 } ], "others": 0.3724, "total": 3.589, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.504761 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.111284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105836 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.069912 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.052975 } ], "others_margin": 0.109551 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4765370786190033, "model_output": 0.4765, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1128 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": 0.0057, "total": 0.4765, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112827 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057795 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027582 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015078 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011979 } ], "others_margin": 0.005798 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.976743221282959, "model_output": 6.9767, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0553 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0164 } ], "others": 0.0498, "total": 6.9767, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055342 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028104 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.023904 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.018076 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.016432 } ], "others_margin": 0.049753 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0087, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.251, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8629, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4807, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2618, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.841, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 0.9075, "fouls_drawn": 0.512, "blocks": 0.868, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.0238, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "expected_assists": 0.0899, "shots_on_target": 0.0324, "big_chances_created": 0.2038, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4586, "total_progression": 36.1426, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "key_pass": 0.9465, "shots_off_target": 0.4483 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0087, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2538, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8644, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4754, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2589, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.841, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 0.9141, "fouls_drawn": 0.5119, "blocks": 0.868, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0235, "assist_rate": 0.0235, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "expected_assists": 0.0899, "shots_on_target": 0.032, "big_chances_created": 0.2038, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4586, "total_progression": 36.1426, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "key_pass": 0.9465, "shots_off_target": 0.4483 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9991, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9075, "after": 0.9141 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4807, "after": 0.4754 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2538, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8644, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2589, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.841, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 0.9141, "fouls_drawn": 0.5119, "blocks": 0.868, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0235, "assist_rate": 0.0235, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "expected_assists": 0.0899, "shots_on_target": 0.032, "big_chances_created": 0.2038, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4586, "total_progression": 36.1426, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "key_pass": 0.9465, "shots_off_target": 0.4483 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2538, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8644, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2589, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.841, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 0.9141, "fouls_drawn": 0.5119, "blocks": 0.868, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0235, "assist_rate": 0.0235, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "expected_assists": 0.0899, "shots_on_target": 0.032, "big_chances_created": 0.2038, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4586, "total_progression": 36.1426, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "key_pass": 0.9465, "shots_off_target": 0.4483, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2538, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8644, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2589, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.841, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 0.9141, "fouls_drawn": 0.5119, "blocks": 0.868, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0235, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "expected_assists": 0.0899, "shots_on_target": 0.032, "big_chances_created": 0.2038, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 16.4586, "total_progression": 36.1426, "progressive_carries": 0.254, "key_pass": 0.9465, "shots_off_target": 0.4483, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2538, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8644, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2589, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 0.0287, 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"team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0899, "after": 0.0753 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1603, "fifa_rank": 1109.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2538, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8644, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2589, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 0.0287, "ball_recovery": 2.841, "challenges_lost": 0.3131, "fouls": 0.9141, "fouls_drawn": 0.5119, 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"goal_probability": 0.0145, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0117, "squad_weight_total": 1.1944, "weight_share": 0.0098, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2538, "tackles": 1.5263, "tackles_won": 0.8644, "clearances": 6.3591, "aerial_won": 3.6202, "total_shots": 0.4803, "rating": 6.9767, "minutes": 89.92, "total_pass": 50.7619, "accurate_pass": 39.3775, "duels_won": 6.1853, "total_long_balls": 10.3829, "accurate_long_balls": 3.4214, "total_own_half_passes": 29.4568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.484, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.3052, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.8935, "crosses_total": 0.2589, "crosses_accurate": 0.1726, "touches": 67.9369, "possession_lost": 14.6166, "dispossessed": 0.0815, "duels_lost": 3.6231, "aerial_lost": 2.0458, "total_contest": 0.3122, "won_contest": 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"importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1136 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.3335, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113597 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050111 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020543 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.008093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.007935 } ], "others_margin": -0.037537 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.61438512802124, "model_output": 6.6144, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9968, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8047, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8922, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.3325, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, "crosses_total": 0.804, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 44.7568, "possession_lost": 9.5758, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 3.345, "aerial_lost": 0.8306, "total_contest": 0.2891, "won_contest": 0.1758, "ball_recovery": 2.7058, "challenges_lost": 1.1695, "fouls": 1.3826, "fouls_drawn": 1.2597, "blocks": 0.4052, "goals": 0.0, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8127, "tackles": 1.4665, "tackles_won": 0.8864, "clearances": 2.5335, "aerial_won": 0.9174, "total_shots": 0.3324, "rating": 6.6144, "minutes": 83.7, "total_pass": 25.9864, "accurate_pass": 20.2221, "duels_won": 3.4578, "total_long_balls": 4.5281, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6158, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9955, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8278, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9909, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3943, "crosses_total": 0.8057, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 44.7568, "possession_lost": 9.5758, "dispossessed": 0.0502, "duels_lost": 3.345, "aerial_lost": 0.8306, "total_contest": 0.2891, "won_contest": 0.1758, "ball_recovery": 2.7058, "challenges_lost": 1.1695, "fouls": 1.3765, "fouls_drawn": 1.2615, "blocks": 0.4052, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0715, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0013, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0086, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6714, "total_progression": 13.6087, "progressive_carries": 0.5211, "key_pass": 0.4888, "shots_off_target": 0.3324, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9671, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin": 0.471993 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.115756 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112224 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.098637 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.068206 } ], "others_margin": -0.078089 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7744646668434143, "model_output": 0.7745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0851 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": 0.0705, "total": 0.7745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.08515 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057794 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.034969 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031131 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.023914 } ], "others_margin": 0.070374 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.010298252105713, "model_output": 7.0103, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0198 } ], "others": 0.0887, "total": 7.0103, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.037519 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.031374 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.024677 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023146 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019769 } ], "others_margin": 0.08868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0341, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2294, "tackles": 1.3236, "tackles_won": 0.7933, "clearances": 6.382, "aerial_won": 3.145, "total_shots": 0.8009, "rating": 7.0103, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 52.8128, "accurate_pass": 45.7699, "duels_won": 5.1153, "total_long_balls": 6.9663, "accurate_long_balls": 4.2606, "total_own_half_passes": 28.5696, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6695, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.1005, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.6246, "possession_lost": 8.1267, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.2201, "aerial_lost": 2.0147, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.9761, "challenges_lost": 0.5538, "fouls": 0.6516, "fouls_drawn": 0.2014, "blocks": 1.0502, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"totalClearance", "predicted": 2.93095326423645, "model_output": 2.931, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4561 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3885 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2699 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1049 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0563 } ], "others": -0.1569, "total": 2.931, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124107 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.104713 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.079814 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.032806 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018061 } ], "others_margin": -0.052169 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.000905990600586, "model_output": 1.0009, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1975 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1586 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0643 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0386 } ], "others": -0.1923, "total": 1.0009, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.154234 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125672 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.049089 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.037486 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.031859 } ], "others_margin": -0.175652 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7406835556030273, "model_output": 0.7407, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0709 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0636 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0561, "total": 0.7407, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.070882 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.063577 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030074 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.029571 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019287 } ], "others_margin": 0.056161 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863039970397949, "model_output": 6.863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0007, "total": 6.863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025028 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.0231 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.022518 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014896 } ], "others_margin": -0.000762 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0903, "tackles": 2.6519, "tackles_won": 1.5036, "clearances": 2.9523, "aerial_won": 1.0082, "total_shots": 0.7461, "rating": 6.863, "minutes": 89.95, "total_pass": 40.1375, "accurate_pass": 34.1005, "duels_won": 5.9264, "total_long_balls": 2.9929, "accurate_long_balls": 1.38, "total_own_half_passes": 16.375, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5658, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7625, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5348, "crosses_total": 3.9625, "crosses_accurate": 1.0273, "touches": 68.2689, "possession_lost": 13.8133, "dispossessed": 0.6134, "duels_lost": 5.4067, "aerial_lost": 1.196, "total_contest": 1.6027, "won_contest": 0.776, "ball_recovery": 4.6083, "challenges_lost": 1.1448, "fouls": 1.6257, "fouls_drawn": 0.734, "blocks": 0.2581, "goals": 0.0312, 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"expected_assists": 0.0514, "assists": 0.0734, "assist_rate": 0.0734, "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goals": 0.0714, "goal_rate": 0.0714, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.8708, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 69.41, "total_pass": 31.3809, "accurate_pass": 24.469, "duels_won": 3.8716, "total_long_balls": 4.0597, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8735, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2636, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.7159, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1173, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.7531, "crosses_total": 0.7142, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.7307, "possession_lost": 11.4112, "dispossessed": 1.1231, "duels_lost": 4.2596, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.2408, "interceptions": 0.7875, "tackles_won": 0.8119, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.745, "total_contest": 1.5539, "won_contest": 0.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.6078, "fouls": 0.5084, "fouls_drawn": 1.0974, "blocks": 0.2826, "big_chances_created": 0.1147, "big_chances_missed": 0.2449, "xgot": 0.0572, "ball_carries": 12.7989, 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"numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Carlos Baleba", "opponent_faced": "Carlos Baleba", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8684, "creation_factor": 1.217 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0898, "after": 0.0711 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0514, "after": 0.0431 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8974, "skill_edge": -0.0358, "height_edge": -0.034, "attacker_skill": 0.7389, "defender_skill": 0.8184, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8427 } ], "xg_override": 0.204 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7227, "after": 1.546 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1787 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0644 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0487 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": 0.0448, "total": 1.7772, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.407615 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.178694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.064425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.048652 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042492 } ], "others_margin": 0.044869 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.772883415222168, "model_output": 6.7729, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0493 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 6.7729, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049291 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02705 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018933 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016969 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008257 } ], "others_margin": -0.009587 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0897, "expected_assists": 0.103, "assists": 0.1031, "assist_rate": 0.1031, "expected_goals": 0.2041, "goals": 0.2084, "goal_rate": 0.2084, "shots_on_target": 0.6687, "total_shots": 1.7924, "rating": 6.7729, "minutes": 75.75, "total_pass": 21.0835, "accurate_pass": 17.0139, "duels_won": 3.0312, "total_long_balls": 1.1071, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9319, "total_own_half_passes": 7.6009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1659, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.848, "crosses_total": 2.1475, "crosses_accurate": 0.4893, "touches": 33.5652, "possession_lost": 9.7118, "dispossessed": 1.0326, "duels_lost": 4.5202, "aerial_won": 0.4353, "aerial_lost": 1.3306, "interceptions": 0.5023, "tackles_won": 0.585, "tackles": 0.8157, "clearances": 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0.242783 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.119704 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.037964 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.037952 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.037263 } ], "others_margin": 0.057212 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.919656276702881, "model_output": 6.9197, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0213, "total": 6.9197, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059762 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04233 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012771 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.010777 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01048 } ], "others_margin": 0.021377 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0206, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.263, "goals": 0.2576, "goal_rate": 0.2576, "shots_on_target": 0.774, "total_shots": 2.1451, "expected_assists": 0.0971, "key_pass": 1.0069, "rating": 6.9197, "minutes": 84.11, "total_pass": 19.702, "accurate_pass": 13.7325, "duels_won": 5.0161, "total_long_balls": 0.8933, "accurate_long_balls": 0.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0773, "crosses_total": 2.0412, "crosses_accurate": 0.442, "touches": 35.0166, "possession_lost": 11.4679, "dispossessed": 0.5869, "duels_lost": 5.7684, "aerial_lost": 3.1351, "total_contest": 1.5786, "won_contest": 0.6339, "ball_recovery": 1.8226, "challenges_lost": 0.7299, "fouls": 0.3989, "fouls_drawn": 0.8843, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "interceptions": 0.5987, 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"numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.195, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.993, "skill_edge": 0.0133, "height_edge": -0.018, "attacker_skill": 0.8478, "defender_skill": 0.8184, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8427 } ], "xg_override": 0.2612 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.157, "after": 2.1419 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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"description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2069, "goal_rate": 0.2513, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7797, "total_shots": 2.1419, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "key_pass": 1.0069, "rating": 6.9197, "minutes": 84.11, "total_pass": 19.702, "accurate_pass": 13.7325, "duels_won": 5.0161, "total_long_balls": 0.8933, "accurate_long_balls": 0.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0773, "crosses_total": 2.0058, "crosses_accurate": 0.442, "touches": 35.0166, "possession_lost": 11.4679, "dispossessed": 0.5869, "duels_lost": 5.7684, "aerial_lost": 3.1351, "total_contest": 1.5786, "won_contest": 0.6339, "ball_recovery": 1.8226, "challenges_lost": 0.7299, "fouls": 0.392, "fouls_drawn": 0.869, "assist_rate": 0.0369, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5964, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2069, "goal_rate": 0.2513, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7797, "total_shots": 2.1419, "expected_assists": 0.0814, "key_pass": 1.0069, "rating": 6.9197, "minutes": 84.11, "total_pass": 19.702, "accurate_pass": 13.7325, "duels_won": 5.0161, "total_long_balls": 0.8933, "accurate_long_balls": 0.306, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0773, "crosses_total": 2.0058, "crosses_accurate": 0.442, "touches": 35.0166, "possession_lost": 11.4679, "dispossessed": 0.5869, "duels_lost": 5.7684, "aerial_lost": 3.1351, "total_contest": 1.5786, "won_contest": 0.6339, "ball_recovery": 1.8226, "challenges_lost": 0.7299, "fouls": 0.392, "fouls_drawn": 0.869, "assist_rate": 0.0369, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5964, "tackles_won": 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integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4737, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0531, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0221, "goal_rate": 0.0298, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.127, "total_shots": 0.4932, "rating": 6.8588, "minutes": 79.75, "total_pass": 45.8234, "accurate_pass": 40.4592, "duels_won": 4.2537, "total_long_balls": 2.7113, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3208, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3428, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5699, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.4806, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.8892, "crosses_total": 0.2488, "crosses_accurate": 0.0685, "touches": 59.5733, "possession_lost": 7.7365, "dispossessed": 0.3627, "duels_lost": 4.1027, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.453, "interceptions": 1.5587, "tackles_won": 0.8735, "tackles": 2.4223, "clearances": 1.4253, "total_contest": 0.619, "won_contest": 0.1032, "challenges_lost": 0.9486, "fouls": 1.8601, "fouls_drawn": 0.6363, "blocks": 0.2716, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4457 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0586, "total": 0.2773, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.737426 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.059956 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.050475 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.045978 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.040057 } ], "others_margin": -0.191461 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.533149242401123, "model_output": 1.5331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1543 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1176 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0479 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0397 } ], "others": 0.0525, "total": 1.5331, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.978663 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.086764 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.039999 }, { "name": 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"name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.048895 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044728 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042367 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.031916 } ], "others_margin": 0.020635 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1379626989364624, "model_output": 0.138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1829 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0793 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0518, "total": 0.138, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.182858 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079345 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019188 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.011912 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01181 } ], "others_margin": -0.05188 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680529594421387, "model_output": 6.6805, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 6.6805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016424 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.014255 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013009 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012542 } ], "others_margin": -0.028131 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0101, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3022, "tackles": 0.4662, "tackles_won": 0.2801, "clearances": 1.5486, "aerial_won": 0.6891, "total_shots": 0.1394, "rating": 6.6805, "minutes": 11.97, "total_pass": 1.5687, "accurate_pass": 0.6175, "duels_won": 0.3337, "total_long_balls": 0.6675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3337, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9512, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6175, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.6175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 2.8536, "possession_lost": 1.2849, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025040, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025021, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023997, "match_date": "2026-03-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0265, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier 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"ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023969, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025191, "match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1906, "combined_rank_score": 737.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 540.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8258, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 935.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7871, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álex Jiménez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Choi Han-sol", "ranking": 1901 }, { "player_name": "Santi Comesaña", "ranking": 1902 }, { "player_name": "Federico Lanzillotta", "ranking": 1903 }, { "player_name": "Dong-su Lee", "ranking": 1904 }, { "player_name": "Armand Laurienté", "ranking": 1905 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Baleba", "ranking": 1907 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "ranking": 1908 }, { "player_name": "Ramy Najjarine", "ranking": 1909 }, { "player_name": "Pape Matar Sarr", "ranking": 1910 }, { "player_name": "Christian Moreno", "ranking": 1911 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", 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0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.824 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1979 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0424 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0258 } ], "others": -0.0847, "total": 0.176, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.906855 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.438061 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.125141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.103249 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.094377 } ], "others_margin": -0.393245 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.30575087666511536, "model_output": 0.3058, "scale": "count per 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0.007696 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.787101745605469, "model_output": 6.7871, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0479, "total": 6.7871, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.021967 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.019793 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019602 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014416 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1436 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0457 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 0.1879, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.585507 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.225708 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091831 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.082299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.065437 } ], "others_margin": -0.07649 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7094317674636841, "model_output": 0.7094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2023 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.1005 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0727 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0401 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 0.7094, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417685 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.202307 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.100508 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.072677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040122 } ], "others_margin": -0.053365 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.086920261383057, "model_output": 7.0869, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0823 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0586, "total": 7.0869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.127716 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082265 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082175 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019615 } ], "others_margin": 0.05861 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.877)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8614, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "assists": 0.074, "assist_rate": 0.074, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.113, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.7179, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.7704, "accurate_pass": 10.8998, "duels_won": 2.5244, "total_long_balls": 1.6216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6186, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2551, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7067, "crosses_total": 0.8526, "crosses_accurate": 0.2842, "touches": 22.5273, "possession_lost": 5.3417, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8055, "aerial_won": 1.237, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.6186, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3343, "clearances": 0.6687, 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0.0061 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.7 to 23.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.71, "projection_minutes": 29.74, "minutes_scale": 0.7973, "appearance_probability": 0.343 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.812 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.343 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0312, "after": 0.0085 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.024 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2837, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.045, "assist_rate": 0.045, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.1012, "total_shots": 0.2856, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 2.0322, "accurate_pass": 2.0322, "duels_won": 1.0161, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.0161, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.1127, "possession_lost": 2.0322, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0483, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0161, "clearances": 1.0161, "total_contest": 1.0161, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0161, "total_progression": 7.7171, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0161, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "assists": 0.0562, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2497, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "assists": 0.0562, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.034, "after": 0.0141 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0274, "after": 0.012 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 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"accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1863, "expected_assists": 0.163, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", 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"keyPass", "predicted": 0.6926926970481873, "model_output": 0.6927, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0537 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0325 } ], "others": 0.081, "total": 0.6927, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.352102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.16558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.091694 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.056747 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.054609 } ], "others_margin": 0.124356 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6494340896606445, "model_output": 6.6494, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.062 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0056, "total": 6.6494, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062018 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012402 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011548 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.010712 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.010577 } ], "others_margin": -0.005471 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0145, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1319, "goals": 0.1255, "goal_rate": 0.1255, "shots_on_target": 0.4018, "total_shots": 1.1348, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "key_pass": 0.7027, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 18.05, "total_pass": 7.6258, "accurate_pass": 5.2755, "duels_won": 0.5703, "total_long_balls": 0.2208, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6362, "crosses_total": 0.2282, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.3459, "possession_lost": 4.0062, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 1.5076, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.4581, "won_contest": 0.1494, "ball_recovery": 1.6775, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 0.7726, "fouls_drawn": 0.1774, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2434, "tackles_won": 0.1508, "tackles": 0.1508, "clearances": 0.7861, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1689, "xgot": 0.2701, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5632, "total_progression": 1.8098, "progressive_carries": 0.4919, "shots_off_target": 0.733 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0145, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1974, "goals": 0.1879, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.0972, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.02, "projection_minutes": 18.05, "minutes_scale": 1.4969, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1974, "goals": 0.1879, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.0972, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1974, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.0972, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2039, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.0972, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9616, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1974, "after": 0.0996 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.05 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2039, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.0972, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9616, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1554, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2039, "offsides": 0.0, 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"position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 193, "market_value": 18200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"Elche", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1044, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8925, "expected_assists": 0.146, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 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"25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083252, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3370, "combined_rank_score": 1330.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 438.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9088, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7046, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Rodriguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Iñaki Peña", "ranking": 3365 }, { "player_name": "Liam Scales", "ranking": 3366 }, { "player_name": "Matías Vecino", "ranking": 3367 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Estève", "ranking": 3368 }, { "player_name": "Fotis Ioannidis", "ranking": 3369 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Franjo Ivanović", "ranking": 3371 }, { "player_name": "Mika Biereth", "ranking": 3372 }, { "player_name": "Mario Soriano", "ranking": 3373 }, { "player_name": "Ernest Poku", "ranking": 3374 }, { "player_name": "Dilane Bakwa", "ranking": 3375 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", 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"margin": 0.099007 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.073669 } ], "others_margin": -0.311692 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4032442569732666, "model_output": 0.4032, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2431 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": 0.0076, "total": 0.4032, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.447469 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.080793 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066888 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059556 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.039923 } ], "others_margin": 0.019389 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.704645156860352, "model_output": 6.7046, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0176, "total": 6.7046, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059323 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.017915 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011916 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01098 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010874 } ], "others_margin": 0.017662 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goals": 0.1439, "goal_rate": 0.1439, "shots_on_target": 0.3395, "total_shots": 1.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "key_pass": 0.4049, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 16.5, "total_pass": 4.9778, "accurate_pass": 3.2845, "duels_won": 2.9668, "total_long_balls": 0.0779, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0779, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3011, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8631, "possession_lost": 2.8188, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1008, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5273, "won_contest": 0.5273, "ball_recovery": 0.7139, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3513, "fouls_drawn": 0.99, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2185, "tackles": 0.2185, "clearances": 0.561, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2847, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.3683, "ball_carries": 2.1406, "total_progression": 3.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.6909 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.1438, "shots_on_target": 0.3393, "total_shots": 1.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "key_pass": 0.4049, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 16.5, "total_pass": 4.9778, "accurate_pass": 3.2845, "duels_won": 2.9668, "total_long_balls": 0.0779, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0779, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3011, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8631, "possession_lost": 2.8188, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1008, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5273, "won_contest": 0.5273, "ball_recovery": 0.7139, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3521, "fouls_drawn": 0.9904, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2184, "tackles": 0.2185, "clearances": 0.561, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2847, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.1406, "total_progression": 3.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.6909 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1833, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.5 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0199, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.19, "projection_minutes": 16.5, "minutes_scale": 1.0418, "appearance_probability": 0.733 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0199, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0199, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.733 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.107, "after": 0.0621 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0158 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3370, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0595, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "scorer_weight": 0.0776, "squad_weight_total": 1.1944, "weight_share": 0.065, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, 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"position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 193, "market_value": 18200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, 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"contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0176, "total": 6.7046, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059323 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.017915 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011916 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01098 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010874 } ], "others_margin": 0.017662 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goals": 0.1439, "goal_rate": 0.1439, "shots_on_target": 0.3395, "total_shots": 1.0304, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "key_pass": 0.4049, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 16.5, "total_pass": 4.9778, "accurate_pass": 3.2845, "duels_won": 2.9668, "total_long_balls": 0.0779, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0779, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3011, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8631, "possession_lost": 2.8188, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1008, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5273, "won_contest": 0.5273, "ball_recovery": 0.7139, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3513, "fouls_drawn": 0.99, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2185, "tackles": 0.2185, "clearances": 0.561, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2847, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.3683, "ball_carries": 2.1406, "total_progression": 3.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.6909 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.1438, "shots_on_target": 0.3393, "total_shots": 1.0299, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "key_pass": 0.4049, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 16.5, "total_pass": 4.9778, "accurate_pass": 3.2845, "duels_won": 2.9668, "total_long_balls": 0.0779, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0779, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8452, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3011, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.8631, "possession_lost": 2.8188, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1008, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5273, "won_contest": 0.5273, "ball_recovery": 0.7139, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3521, "fouls_drawn": 0.9904, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2184, "tackles": 0.2185, "clearances": 0.561, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2847, "xgot": 0.0191, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.1406, "total_progression": 3.5182, "progressive_carries": 0.2191, "shots_off_target": 0.6909 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1833, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.5 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0199, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.19, "projection_minutes": 16.5, "minutes_scale": 1.0418, "appearance_probability": 0.733 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goals": 0.1498, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0199, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0199, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.733 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.107, "after": 0.0621 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0258, "after": 0.0158 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3370, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, "ball_carries": 2.2301, "total_progression": 3.6653, "progressive_carries": 0.2283, "shots_off_target": 0.7198, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0595, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0595, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "scorer_weight": 0.0776, "squad_weight_total": 1.1944, "weight_share": 0.065, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0621, "goal_rate": 0.1498, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "total_shots": 1.0733, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.4218, "rating": 6.7046, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.186, "accurate_pass": 3.4219, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 0.0812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.006, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3973, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2756, "possession_lost": 2.9367, "dispossessed": 0.381, "duels_lost": 2.1887, "aerial_lost": 1.4883, "total_contest": 0.5494, "won_contest": 0.5494, "ball_recovery": 0.7438, "challenges_lost": 0.0294, "fouls": 0.3668, "fouls_drawn": 1.0318, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2275, "tackles": 0.2276, "clearances": 0.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2966, "xgot": 0.0115, "offsides": 0.3681, 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1974, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.4043, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.0972, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 0.2039, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3337, "total_progression": 2.7091, "progressive_carries": 0.7363, "shots_off_target": 1.0972, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9616, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1974, "after": 0.0996 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0937, "after": 0.05 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0996, "goal_rate": 0.1879, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6014, "total_shots": 1.6987, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 1.0519, "rating": 6.6494, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 11.4149, "accurate_pass": 7.8968, "duels_won": 0.8537, "total_long_balls": 0.3305, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0748, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.443, "crosses_total": 0.3416, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.4803, "possession_lost": 5.9968, "dispossessed": 0.0926, "duels_lost": 2.2567, "aerial_lost": 0.2668, "total_contest": 0.6857, "won_contest": 0.2236, "ball_recovery": 2.511, "challenges_lost": 0.067, "fouls": 1.1565, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3643, "tackles_won": 0.2257, "tackles": 0.2257, "clearances": 1.1767, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2528, "xgot": 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0455 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0273 } ], "others": 0.0272, "total": 0.2811, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.37768 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.251283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045482 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034759 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027269 } ], "others_margin": 0.027069 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.631406784057617, "model_output": 6.6314, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { 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substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2837, "expected_assists": 0.0219, "assists": 0.045, "assist_rate": 0.045, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0346, "shots_on_target": 0.1012, "total_shots": 0.2856, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 2.0322, "accurate_pass": 2.0322, "duels_won": 1.0161, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.0161, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.1127, "possession_lost": 2.0322, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0483, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0161, "clearances": 1.0161, "total_contest": 1.0161, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0161, "total_progression": 7.7171, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1844 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0161, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "assists": 0.0562, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2497, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "assists": 0.0562, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.034, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.034, "after": 0.0141 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0274, "after": 0.012 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3661, "fifa_rank": 2329.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "scorer_weight": 0.0156, "squad_weight_total": 1.1944, "weight_share": 0.0131, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3545, "expected_assists": 0.012, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1265, "total_shots": 0.3569, "rating": 6.6314, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2304, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0139, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0119, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0119, "assist_rate": 0.0562, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.7322, "weight_share": 0.0205, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Alex Scott": { "player_id": 1104986, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 75000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0084, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.812, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1209, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1865, "expected_assists": 0.052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363637, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "expected_assists": 0.015, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0823 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0822 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": 0.0586, "total": 7.0869, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.127716 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.082265 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082175 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.019615 } ], "others_margin": 0.05861 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0119, quality 0.877)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8614, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "assists": 0.074, "assist_rate": 0.074, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.113, "shots_on_target": 0.1901, "total_shots": 0.7179, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.7704, "accurate_pass": 10.8998, "duels_won": 2.5244, "total_long_balls": 1.6216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6186, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2551, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7067, "crosses_total": 0.8526, "crosses_accurate": 0.2842, "touches": 22.5273, "possession_lost": 5.3417, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8055, "aerial_won": 1.237, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.6186, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3343, "clearances": 0.6687, "total_contest": 0.9027, "won_contest": 0.3343, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6186, "blocks": 0.3343, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8597, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.5278 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 75000000, "quality_factor": 0.877, "boost_factor": 1.0119, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8614, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "assists": 0.0733, "assist_rate": 0.0733, "expected_goals": 0.0391, "goals": 0.1135, "goal_rate": 0.1135, "shots_on_target": 0.1899, "total_shots": 0.7144, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 29.74, "total_pass": 14.7704, "accurate_pass": 10.8998, "duels_won": 2.5244, "total_long_balls": 1.6216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6186, "total_own_half_passes": 4.2551, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1931, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5153, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7067, "crosses_total": 0.8569, "crosses_accurate": 0.2842, "touches": 22.5273, "possession_lost": 5.3417, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8055, "aerial_won": 1.237, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.6159, "tackles_won": 0.0061, "tackles": 0.3343, "clearances": 0.6687, "total_contest": 0.9027, "won_contest": 0.3343, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.003, "fouls_drawn": 0.619, "blocks": 0.3343, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8597, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.465, "shots_off_target": 0.5278 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3304, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0061 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.7 to 23.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.71, "projection_minutes": 29.74, "minutes_scale": 0.7973, "appearance_probability": 0.343 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assists": 0.0584, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goals": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.0835, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.4966, xG scale 0.7918, xA scale 0.8381, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.812 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.185, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4966, "squad_xa_sum": 0.919, "team_expected_assists": 0.7703, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.7918, "xa_scale": 0.8381, "opponent_lambda": 1.636, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.343 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0312, "after": 0.0085 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0835, "after": 0.024 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.812, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 491, "fifa_rank": 525.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0084, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.812, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0084, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "scorer_weight": 0.0106, "squad_weight_total": 1.1944, "weight_share": 0.0089, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.343, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6868, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0085, "goal_rate": 0.0905, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0.5723, "rating": 7.0869, "minutes": 23.71, "total_pass": 11.7771, "accurate_pass": 8.6909, "duels_won": 2.0128, "total_long_balls": 1.293, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4932, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3928, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.546, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3843, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1449, "crosses_total": 0.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.2266, "touches": 17.962, "possession_lost": 4.2592, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4396, "aerial_won": 0.9863, "aerial_lost": 0.6186, "interceptions": 0.4911, "tackles_won": 0.0049, "tackles": 0.2666, "clearances": 0.5332, "total_contest": 0.7198, "won_contest": 0.2666, "challenges_lost": 0.6186, "fouls": 0.0024, "fouls_drawn": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.2666, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4828, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.3708, "shots_off_target": 0.4208, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.343, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.71, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0084, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.812, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.0584, "provider_weight": 0.0195, "squad_weight_total": 0.7322, "weight_share": 0.0266, "creation_factor": 0.812, "appearance_weight": 0.343, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.19, "expected_assists": 0.77, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 399, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.2888, "xg_multiplier": 0.9637, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "RB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) is evenly matched against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.289 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Youri Tielemans", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Ryan Christie", "Tyler Adams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.615, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.316, "xg_contribution": 0.0681, "xg_multiplier": 1.111, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Christie", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.684 }, { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.684 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youri Tielemans (CAM) is slightly favored against Ryan Christie and Tyler Adams in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €20M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Adam Smith", "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.3852, "xg_multiplier": 1.1183, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 }, { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (ST) is slightly favored against Adam Smith and James Hill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.385 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Adam Smith", "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "xg_contribution": 0.1208, "xg_multiplier": 1.0691, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "CB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 }, { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (ST) is slightly favored against Adam Smith and James Hill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €16M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Baleba", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.582, "xg_contribution": 0.084, "xg_multiplier": 1.2388, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Christie", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.418 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Baleba (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Ryan Christie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Andrey Santos", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Ryan Christie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.566, "xg_contribution": 0.0628, "xg_multiplier": 1.2144, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Christie", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.434 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrey Santos (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Ryan Christie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €9M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Diogo Dalot" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "xg_contribution": 0.1733, "xg_multiplier": 0.8493, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "role": "RB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Diogo Dalot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.173 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.195, "xg_contribution": 0.2612, "xg_multiplier": 0.993, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.805 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (ST) is evenly matched against Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €37M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.261 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.204, "xg_multiplier": 0.8974, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Marcus Tavernier", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2602, "xg_multiplier": 0.8502, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Tavernier (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.260 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Christie", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.258, "xg_contribution": 0.0898, "xg_multiplier": 0.7612, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Baleba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.742 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Christie (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Carlos Baleba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €63M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tyler Adams", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.352, "xg_contribution": 0.0221, "xg_multiplier": 0.9004, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Baleba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyler Adams (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Baleba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €63M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.022 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.822, "away_midfield_power": 0.633, "home_creative_power": 0.732, "away_creative_power": 0.538, "home_defensive_power": 0.696, "away_defensive_power": 0.538, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.565, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Youri Tielemans", "Carlos Baleba", "Andrey Santos" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ryan Christie", "Justin Kluivert", "Tyler Adams" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Carlos Baleba vs Tyler Adams", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.025, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.977 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.636, "away_lambda": 1.185, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Adam Smith", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Adam Smith", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carlos Baleba": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrey Santos": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Christie", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Diogo Dalot": { "opponents": [ "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ayden Heaven": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leny Yoro": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Harry Maguire": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Christie": { "opponents": [ "Youri Tielemans", "Carlos Baleba", "Andrey Santos", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Youri Tielemans", "Carlos Baleba" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Smith": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Andrey Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marcus Tavernier": { "opponents": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Carlos Baleba vs Tyler Adams). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.01, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "ha_source": "default", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0532, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9184, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9145, "home_midfield_factor": 1.025, "away_midfield_factor": 0.977, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7593, "away_avg_quality": 0.6821, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0772, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3732, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3358, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4779, "elite_count_gap": 5, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1862, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1024, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0596, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0097, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1198 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.025, "result": 1.1478 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1478 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.3199 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0402, "result": 1.373 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.2342 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9184, "result": 1.1334 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3134 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3134, "result": 1.3134, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1862, "factor": 1.1024, "pre": 1.3134, "result": 1.448 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.448 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.668 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.3793, "result": 1.6126 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.6126, "result": 1.613, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.613 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.613, "result": 1.6361, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.636 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.636 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.636, "result": 1.636, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.636 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0106, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1204 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.977, "result": 1.0947 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0947 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0947 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9812, "result": 1.0741 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 0.9391 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9145, "result": 0.8588 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0532, "result": 0.912 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.912, "result": 0.912, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1862, "factor": 0.9404, "pre": 0.912, "result": 0.8577 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8577 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.078 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 1.7241, "result": 1.2021 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2021, "result": 1.202, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.202 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.202, "result": 1.1848, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.185 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.185 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.185, "result": 1.185, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.185 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester United", "away_squad": "Bournemouth", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.724, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.636, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.185, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6126, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2021, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.636, "final_away_lambda": 1.185 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0402, "attack_index": 1.05, "defense_concede_index": 1.048, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.52, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.52, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.09 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9812, "attack_index": 0.91, "defense_concede_index": 1.05, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.32, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.52, "team_ppg": 1.09, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Man Utd vs Bournemouth. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.613, Away 1.202). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.636, Away 1.185 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester United", "away_squad": "Bournemouth", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.379, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.724, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.636, "away_lambda": 1.185, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.613, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.202 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T13:32:14Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }