{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Brentford", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.099, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0564, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.099, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Brentford", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2229, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1043 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.099 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0948 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0911 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.063 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0506, "0-1": 0.0948, "0-2": 0.0911, "0-3": 0.058, "0-4": 0.0277, "0-5": 0.0106, "0-6": 0.0034, "0-7": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.0537, "1-1": 0.1043, "1-2": 0.099, "1-3": 0.063, "1-4": 0.0301, "1-5": 0.0115, "1-6": 0.0037, "1-7": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0295, "2-1": 0.0564, "2-2": 0.0538, "2-3": 0.0342, "2-4": 0.0163, "2-5": 0.0062, "2-6": 0.002, "2-7": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0107, "3-1": 0.0204, "3-2": 0.0195, "3-3": 0.0124, "3-4": 0.0059, "3-5": 0.0023, "3-6": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0029, "4-1": 0.0056, "4-2": 0.0053, "4-3": 0.0034, "4-4": 0.0016, "4-5": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0006, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0012, "5-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2124, "draw": 0.2229, "away_win": 0.5647 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5759, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4241, "btts_yes": 0.5651, "btts_no": 0.4349, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1482, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3372 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.67, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.86, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.76, "MCR": 7.01, "ATR": 6.83, "GK": 6.99 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Hull vs Brentford. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 4 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Hull 4W-2D-3L vs Brentford over 9 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Oliver McBurnie, Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Tim Iroegbunam vs Mamadou Sangare). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 1.19. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.087, "away_lambda": 1.909, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 9, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0077, "away_multiplier": 0.9923 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1043, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2124, "draw": 0.2229, "away_win": 0.5647 }, "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5647, "fair_spread": -0.822, "fair_total": 2.996, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.087, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.909, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5759, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5651, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1482, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3372, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oliver McBurnie (Hull)", "estimate": 0.2538, "probability": 0.2242, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Igor Thiago (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.5408, "probability": 0.4177, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mohamed Belloumi (Hull)", "estimate": 0.1382, "probability": 0.1291, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2384, "probability": 0.2121, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.996, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 686, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.3, "possession_home_pct": 47.3, "possession_away_pct": 52.7, "notes": "Brentford projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5647, "script": "Brentford is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.82 goals and fair total 3.00.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brentford lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Igor Thiago against John Egan, Semi Ajayi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Brentford projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through Oliver McBurnie; bench watchlist: Christos Mouzakitis, Robinio Vaz, Ilyas Ansah.", "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade; bench watchlist: Dango Ouattara, Yehor Yarmoliuk, Reiss Nelson.", "Assist usage should flow through Mohamed Belloumi, Keane Lewis-Potter; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brentford tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.50 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brentford.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Hull": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Oliver McBurnie": { "player_id": 367228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 188, "market_value": 7600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2538, "goal_rate": 0.2124, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8854, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 11.9775, "dispossessed": 0.6042, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 6, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.2189, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1167, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.776, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sepp van den Berg, Kristoffer Ajer", "opponent_faced": "Sepp van den Berg, Kristoffer Ajer", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2242, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0502, "finishing_factor": 0.9577, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363885, "match_date": "2026-10-17 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Hull", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Hull", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363876, "match_date": "2026-10-11 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Everton", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Hull", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0885, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363868, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3644, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3297, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3823, "expected_assists": 0.0505, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 9, "duels_won": 13 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1558, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3569, "combined_rank_score": 1531.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 873.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 2189.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8854, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Oli McBurnie", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Koni De Winter", "ranking": 3564 }, { "player_name": "Luis Henrique", "ranking": 3565 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Lucca", "ranking": 3566 }, { "player_name": "Neil El Aynaoui", "ranking": 3567 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Castro", "ranking": 3568 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Philip Zinckernagel", "ranking": 3570 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Roldan", "ranking": 3571 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Pereyra", "ranking": 3572 }, { "player_name": "Moise Bombito", "ranking": 3573 }, { "player_name": "Germán Berterame", "ranking": 3574 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.582, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.582, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9983, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Hull City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Hull City, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2891, "goals": 0.2866, "goal_rate": 0.2866, "shots_on_target": 0.7117, "total_shots": 1.9629, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.7383, "rating": 6.8854, "minutes": 85.83, "total_pass": 18.1761, "accurate_pass": 11.0649, "duels_won": 8.5001, "total_long_balls": 0.4763, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4763, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.41, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3468, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.8649, "possession_lost": 11.9979, "dispossessed": 0.6052, "duels_lost": 9.3312, "aerial_lost": 6.1619, "total_contest": 1.1544, "won_contest": 0.7304, "ball_recovery": 1.7528, "challenges_lost": 0.7049, "fouls": 1.4352, "fouls_drawn": 2.2, "assists": 0.2292, "assist_rate": 0.2292, "interceptions": 0.2696, "tackles_won": 0.2292, "tackles": 0.6188, "clearances": 1.6148, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5648, "xgot": 0.1329, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3179, "total_progression": 9.1669, "progressive_carries": 0.8089, "shots_off_target": 1.2512 }, "trace": { 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"contribution": 0.1905 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": -0.1202, "total": 0.7383, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.248933 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.04715 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.04667 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.043878 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036449 } ], "others_margin": -0.15087 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.885397911071777, "model_output": 6.8854, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], 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0.2288, "tackles": 0.6177, "clearances": 1.6121, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5638, "xgot": 0.1327, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3072, "total_progression": 9.1513, "progressive_carries": 0.8075, "shots_off_target": 1.2491 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2886, "goals": 0.2737, "goal_rate": 0.2737, "shots_on_target": 0.721, "total_shots": 1.916, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.737, "rating": 6.8854, "minutes": 85.83, "total_pass": 18.1452, "accurate_pass": 11.0461, "duels_won": 8.4856, "total_long_balls": 0.4755, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4755, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3343, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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"1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Sepp van den Berg, Kristoffer Ajer", "opponent_faced": "Sepp van den Berg, Kristoffer Ajer", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sepp van den Berg, Kristoffer Ajer", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.776, "skill_edge": -0.1284, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.4939, "defender_skill": 0.7792, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Sepp van den Berg", "market_value": 33000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8002 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "market_value": 27000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7581 } ], "xg_override": 0.224 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9701, "after": 1.5288 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2491, "after": 0.9693 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.721, "after": 0.5595 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5638, "after": 0.4375 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2886, "after": 0.224 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2737, "after": 0.2124 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1327, "after": 0.103 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.224, "goal_rate": 0.2124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5595, "total_shots": 1.5288, "expected_assists": 0.0398, "key_pass": 0.737, "rating": 6.8854, "minutes": 85.83, "total_pass": 18.1452, "accurate_pass": 11.0461, "duels_won": 8.4856, "total_long_balls": 0.4755, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4755, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3343, 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"opponent_faced": "Sepp van den Berg, Kristoffer Ajer", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2538, "goal_rate": 0.2124, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5595, "total_shots": 1.5288, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "key_pass": 0.737, "rating": 6.8854, "minutes": 85.83, "total_pass": 18.1452, "accurate_pass": 11.0461, "duels_won": 8.4856, "total_long_balls": 0.4755, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4755, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3343, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.8073, "possession_lost": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0031, "total": 0.0866, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127032 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.112559 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.054465 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.041257 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040677 } ], "others_margin": 0.035456 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07175888866186142, "model_output": 0.0718, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1518 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0246, "total": 1.059, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.151759 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045187 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040217 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013393 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013319 } ], "others_margin": -0.024565 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.839498996734619, "model_output": 6.8395, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0127, "total": 6.8395, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030321 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022971 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.016421 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012636 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.007814 } ], "others_margin": -0.012692 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0678, "expected_assists": 0.0943, "assists": 0.0957, "assist_rate": 0.0957, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.0718, "shots_on_target": 0.3331, "total_shots": 1.0603, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.7027, "accurate_pass": 21.5312, "duels_won": 4.2632, "total_long_balls": 2.2934, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0356, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6358, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8954, "crosses_total": 1.1309, "crosses_accurate": 0.5113, "touches": 37.7963, "possession_lost": 8.1707, "dispossessed": 0.5767, "duels_lost": 2.1569, "aerial_won": 1.2504, "aerial_lost": 0.3067, "interceptions": 0.8896, "tackles_won": 0.9951, "tackles": 1.6875, "clearances": 0.9856, "total_contest": 0.6945, "won_contest": 0.6945, "challenges_lost": 0.6309, "fouls": 0.6427, "fouls_drawn": 0.6309, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3703, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0152, "ball_carries": 9.4749, "total_progression": 23.4929, "progressive_carries": 0.336, "shots_off_target": 0.7272 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0678, "expected_assists": 0.0943, "assists": 0.1124, "assist_rate": 0.1124, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "shots_on_target": 0.3187, "total_shots": 1.0144, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.7027, "accurate_pass": 21.5312, "duels_won": 4.2632, "total_long_balls": 2.2934, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0356, 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1.0603, "after": 1.0144 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8896, "after": 0.8511 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6427, "after": 0.6773 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0957, "after": 0.1124 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3331, "after": 0.3187 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1309, "after": 1.1236 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6309, "after": 0.6244 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0678, "expected_assists": 0.0943, "assists": 0.1124, "assist_rate": 0.1124, "expected_goals": 0.0867, "goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0687, "shots_on_target": 0.3187, "total_shots": 1.0459, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.7027, "accurate_pass": 21.5312, "duels_won": 4.2632, "total_long_balls": 2.2934, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0356, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6358, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1502, 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"shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.7898, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.7027, "accurate_pass": 21.5312, "duels_won": 4.2632, "total_long_balls": 2.2934, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0356, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6358, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8954, "crosses_total": 1.1236, "crosses_accurate": 0.5113, "touches": 37.7963, "possession_lost": 8.1707, "dispossessed": 0.5767, "duels_lost": 2.1569, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3067, "interceptions": 0.8511, "tackles_won": 0.9937, "tackles": 1.6875, "clearances": 0.9856, "total_contest": 0.6945, "won_contest": 0.6945, "challenges_lost": 0.6309, "fouls": 0.6773, "fouls_drawn": 0.6244, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3703, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 9.4749, "total_progression": 23.4929, "progressive_carries": 0.336, "shots_off_target": 0.5491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7551, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.293, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Michael Kayode", "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.293, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7551, "skill_edge": -0.1426, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.5251, "defender_skill": 0.8419, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "market_value": 39000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8419 } ], "xg_override": 0.0655 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.2504, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0459, "after": 0.7898 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7272, "after": 0.5491 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3187, "after": 0.2407 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0867, "after": 0.0655 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0687, "after": 0.0519 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0678, "expected_assists": 0.0943, "assist_rate": 0.1124, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.7898, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.7027, "accurate_pass": 21.5312, "duels_won": 4.2632, "total_long_balls": 2.2934, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0356, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6358, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8954, "crosses_total": 1.1236, "crosses_accurate": 0.5113, "touches": 37.7963, "possession_lost": 8.1707, "dispossessed": 0.5767, "duels_lost": 2.1569, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.3067, "interceptions": 0.8511, "tackles_won": 0.9937, "tackles": 1.6875, "clearances": 0.9856, "total_contest": 0.6945, "won_contest": 0.6945, "challenges_lost": 0.6309, "fouls": 0.6773, "fouls_drawn": 0.6244, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3703, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0115, "ball_carries": 9.4749, "total_progression": 23.4929, "progressive_carries": 0.336, "shots_off_target": 0.5491, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7551, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.293, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Michael Kayode", "opponent_faced": "Michael Kayode", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0678, "expected_assists": 0.122, "assist_rate": 0.1124, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2407, "total_shots": 0.7898, "rating": 6.8395, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 26.7027, "accurate_pass": 21.5312, "duels_won": 4.2632, "total_long_balls": 2.2934, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0356, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5525, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6358, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.1502, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8954, "crosses_total": 1.1236, "crosses_accurate": 0.5113, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0599 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0533 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0367 } ], "others": 0.104, "total": 0.8006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.256214 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112213 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.059946 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053282 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.036692 } ], "others_margin": 0.10408 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.76037073135376, "model_output": 6.7604, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125364 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.100605 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.091805 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.086741 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.034604 } ], "others_margin": -0.108938 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9076322317123413, "model_output": 0.9076, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2612 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1506 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0907 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0738 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", 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"contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0213 } ], "others": -0.0009, "total": 0.4524, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093446 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049554 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024191 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.02308 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.021256 } ], "others_margin": -0.00083 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.660065650939941, "model_output": 6.6601, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0607, "total": 6.6601, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.043931 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.03439 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021236 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01751 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.016096 } ], "others_margin": -0.060685 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8586, "tackles": 1.4358, "tackles_won": 0.8423, "clearances": 2.5901, "aerial_won": 0.917, "total_shots": 0.4571, "rating": 6.6601, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 19.5743, "accurate_pass": 15.251, "duels_won": 2.5661, "total_long_balls": 2.6417, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7417, "total_own_half_passes": 6.338, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0319, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.2191, "crosses_total": 9.2559, "crosses_accurate": 2.4329, "touches": 43.2905, "possession_lost": 15.023, "dispossessed": 0.2316, "duels_lost": 1.7321, "aerial_lost": 0.3095, "total_contest": 0.9385, "won_contest": 0.3936, "ball_recovery": 2.8035, "challenges_lost": 0.3737, "fouls": 0.2724, "fouls_drawn": 0.2316, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.203387 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132647 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.097783 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.092706 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.050704 } ], "others_margin": 0.108225 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3606899082660675, "model_output": 0.3607, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126234 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.04608 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.037934 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.030263 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.017263 } ], "others_margin": 0.024677 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.3744900226593018, "model_output": 3.3745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4848 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.445 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2814 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1161 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1085 } ], "others": -0.0599, "total": 3.3745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131426 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.119974 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.084034 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.035532 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032108 } ], "others_margin": -0.017598 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.42927885055542, "model_output": 1.4293, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2198 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1783 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0979 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0828 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0624 } ], "others": -0.1077, "total": 1.4293, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.147588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105562 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.056561 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.050474 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.039824 } ], "others_margin": -0.072674 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5187075734138489, "model_output": 0.5187, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0628 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0588, "total": 0.5187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.031111 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011562 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.010982 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.010126 } ], "others_margin": -0.058775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.718249797821045, "model_output": 6.7182, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0239, "total": 6.7182, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016425 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01548 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014742 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013909 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011871 } ], "others_margin": -0.023939 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.901, "tackles": 1.3936, "tackles_won": 0.8926, "clearances": 3.3404, "aerial_won": 1.4148, "total_shots": 0.5135, "rating": 6.7182, "minutes": 87.39, "total_pass": 29.1062, "accurate_pass": 24.3525, "duels_won": 3.6386, "total_long_balls": 4.039, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0236, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2025, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5047, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9037, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8478, "crosses_total": 0.3568, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.4725, "possession_lost": 6.2909, "dispossessed": 0.4598, "duels_lost": 2.3538, "aerial_lost": 1.0144, "total_contest": 0.7971, "won_contest": 0.5702, "ball_recovery": 3.2188, "challenges_lost": 0.4598, "fouls": 0.1928, "fouls_drawn": 0.1639, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.1394, 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"minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 8.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.256, "distribution_accuracy": 0.7435, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.576, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3315, "save_contribution": 3.5401, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.5599 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9792699813842773, "model_output": 2.9793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": -0.0378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.025354 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02441 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.015782 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.015502 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "saves": 3.04, "goals_prevented": -0.0386, "rating": 7.0085, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7968, "accurate_pass": 15.3624, "total_long_balls": 29.6372, "accurate_long_balls": 9.8142, "touches": 51.3829, "clearances": 0.4678, "ball_recovery": 13.541, "high_claims": 1.8954, "punches": 0.9376, "aerial_won": 0.9652, "sweeper_actions": 1.5917, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5917, "saves_inside_box": 2.6637, "possession_lost": 21.2185, "duels_won": 1.8166, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8889, "total_own_half_passes": 10.411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8376 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.04, "goals_prevented": -0.0386, "rating": 7.0085, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7968, "accurate_pass": 15.3624, "total_long_balls": 29.6372, "accurate_long_balls": 9.8142, "touches": 51.3829, "clearances": 0.4678, "ball_recovery": 13.541, "high_claims": 1.8954, "punches": 0.9376, "aerial_won": 0.9652, "sweeper_actions": 1.5917, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5917, "saves_inside_box": 2.6637, "possession_lost": 21.2185, "duels_won": 1.8166, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8889, "total_own_half_passes": 10.411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8376 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.04, "goals_prevented": -0.0386, "rating": 7.0085, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7968, "accurate_pass": 15.3624, "total_long_balls": 29.6372, "accurate_long_balls": 9.8142, "touches": 51.3829, "clearances": 0.4678, "ball_recovery": 13.541, "high_claims": 1.8954, "punches": 0.9376, "aerial_won": 0.9652, "sweeper_actions": 1.5917, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5917, "saves_inside_box": 2.6637, "possession_lost": 21.2185, "duels_won": 1.8166, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8889, "total_own_half_passes": 10.411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8376, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8358, "shots_faced": 17.4, "expected_saves": 4.25, "high_pressure_saves": 1.47, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.8358 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.04, "goals_prevented": -0.0386, "rating": 7.0085, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7968, "accurate_pass": 15.3624, "total_long_balls": 29.6372, "accurate_long_balls": 9.8142, "touches": 51.3829, "clearances": 0.4678, "ball_recovery": 13.541, "high_claims": 1.8954, "punches": 0.9376, "aerial_won": 0.9652, "sweeper_actions": 1.5917, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5917, "saves_inside_box": 2.6637, "possession_lost": 21.2185, "duels_won": 1.8166, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8889, "total_own_half_passes": 10.411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8376, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8358, "shots_faced": 17.4, "expected_saves": 4.25, "high_pressure_saves": 1.47, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.04, "goals_prevented": -0.0386, "rating": 7.0085, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.7968, "accurate_pass": 15.3624, "total_long_balls": 29.6372, "accurate_long_balls": 9.8142, "touches": 51.3829, "clearances": 0.4678, "ball_recovery": 13.541, "high_claims": 1.8954, "punches": 0.9376, "aerial_won": 0.9652, "sweeper_actions": 1.5917, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5917, "saves_inside_box": 2.6637, "possession_lost": 21.2185, "duels_won": 1.8166, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8889, "total_own_half_passes": 10.411, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8376, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8358, "shots_faced": 18.1, "expected_saves": 4.43, "high_pressure_saves": 1.53, "opponent_faced": "Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.087, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9598, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5459, "team_expected_assists": 0.7066, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1326, "xa_scale": 1.2942, "opponent_lambda": 1.909, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 17.4, "after": 18.1 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.25, "after": 4.43 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.47, "after": 1.53 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.9863, "total_contest": 0.0183, "won_contest": 0.0161, "ball_recovery": 2.1006, "challenges_lost": 0.3493, "fouls": 1.0283, "fouls_drawn": 0.4243, "blocks": 1.1062, "goals": 0.1315, "goal_rate": 0.1315, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "shots_on_target": 0.3595, "big_chances_created": 0.0434, "xgot": 0.0804, "ball_carries": 9.8863, "total_progression": 29.9568, "progressive_carries": 0.388, "key_pass": 0.06, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 59.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Girona FC", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 6.3579, "aerialWon": 1.3961, "totalClearance_p90": 8.0465, "totalTackle": 1.6059, "totalPass": 29.4254 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.47727757692337036, "model_output": 0.4773, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4417 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0334 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0192, "total": 0.4773, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.724063 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.077403 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.044196 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.030425 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025972 } ], "others_margin": -0.03959 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6601728200912476, "model_output": 0.6602, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7249 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 0.6602, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.734132 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.07856 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028749 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.02473 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.02379 } ], "others_margin": -0.072 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.34299442172050476, "model_output": 0.343, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4449 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0388, "total": 0.343, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.735531 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.042875 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.033992 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03277 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.028322 } ], "others_margin": -0.107121 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.9221113920211792, "model_output": 1.9221, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1712 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3063 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1113 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1095 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1 } ], "others": 0.0148, "total": 1.9221, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.991776 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.214516 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.067784 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062493 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053836 } ], "others_margin": 0.007788 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6456656455993652, "model_output": 0.6457, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.819 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0384 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0375 } ], "others": -0.088, "total": 0.6457, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.897973 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.084564 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.070983 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056738 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.05241 } ], "others_margin": -0.127749 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3595, "model_output": 0.1665, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2641 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0568, "total": 0.1665, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.264086 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02513 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.014164 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.011681 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011284 } ], "others_margin": -0.056879 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.801560401916504, "model_output": 6.8016, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 6.8016, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019702 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018461 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015994 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011354 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008334 } ], "others_margin": -0.001345 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4802, "tackles": 0.6643, "tackles_won": 0.3451, "clearances": 1.934, "aerial_won": 0.6497, "total_shots": 0.3617, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 22.92, "total_pass": 29.6078, "accurate_pass": 24.6583, "duels_won": 3.3112, "total_long_balls": 5.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0455, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.82, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2352, "crosses_total": 0.1639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.3774, "possession_lost": 5.733, "dispossessed": 0.1668, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 0.9924, "total_contest": 0.0184, "won_contest": 0.0162, "ball_recovery": 2.1136, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 1.0347, "fouls_drawn": 0.4269, "blocks": 1.1131, "goals": 0.1323, "goal_rate": 0.1323, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.3617, "big_chances_created": 0.0437, "xgot": 0.0809, "ball_carries": 9.9476, "total_progression": 30.1425, "progressive_carries": 0.3904, "key_pass": 0.0604, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0062, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0085)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4761, "tackles": 0.6643, "tackles_won": 0.3438, "clearances": 1.934, "aerial_won": 0.6497, "total_shots": 0.3619, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 22.92, "total_pass": 29.6078, "accurate_pass": 24.6583, "duels_won": 3.3112, "total_long_balls": 5.1276, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0455, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4232, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.82, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2352, "crosses_total": 0.1625, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.3774, "possession_lost": 5.733, "dispossessed": 0.1668, "duels_lost": 2.4361, "aerial_lost": 0.9924, "total_contest": 0.0184, "won_contest": 0.0162, "ball_recovery": 2.1136, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 1.0275, "fouls_drawn": 0.4233, "blocks": 1.1131, "goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.3619, "big_chances_created": 0.0437, "xgot": 0.0809, "ball_carries": 9.9476, "total_progression": 30.1425, "progressive_carries": 0.3904, "key_pass": 0.0604, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0085, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2547, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0347, "after": 1.0275 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.9 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2987, "tackles": 0.4167, "tackles_won": 0.2157, "clearances": 1.2132, "aerial_won": 0.4075, "total_shots": 0.227, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 18.5727, "accurate_pass": 15.4679, "duels_won": 2.0771, "total_long_balls": 3.2165, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2831, "total_own_half_passes": 13.04, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.184, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.284, "crosses_total": 0.1019, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.2102, "possession_lost": 3.5962, "dispossessed": 0.1668, "duels_lost": 1.5281, "aerial_lost": 0.9924, "total_contest": 0.0115, "won_contest": 0.0102, "ball_recovery": 1.3258, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.6445, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "blocks": 0.6982, "goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.0833, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.227, "big_chances_created": 0.0274, "xgot": 0.0507, "ball_carries": 6.24, "total_progression": 18.9081, "progressive_carries": 0.2449, "key_pass": 0.0379, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.38, "projection_minutes": 22.92, "minutes_scale": 0.6273, "appearance_probability": 0.233 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2987, "tackles": 0.4167, "tackles_won": 0.2157, "clearances": 1.2132, "aerial_won": 0.4075, "total_shots": 0.227, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 14.38, "total_pass": 18.5727, "accurate_pass": 15.4679, "duels_won": 2.0771, "total_long_balls": 3.2165, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2831, "total_own_half_passes": 13.04, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.184, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.284, "crosses_total": 0.1019, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.2102, "possession_lost": 3.5962, "dispossessed": 0.1668, "duels_lost": 1.5281, "aerial_lost": 0.9924, "total_contest": 0.0115, "won_contest": 0.0102, "ball_recovery": 1.3258, "challenges_lost": 0.3515, "fouls": 0.6445, "fouls_drawn": 0.2655, "blocks": 0.6982, "goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.0833, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.227, "big_chances_created": 0.0274, "xgot": 0.0507, "ball_carries": 6.24, "total_progression": 18.9081, "progressive_carries": 0.2449, "key_pass": 0.0379, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.233, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2987, "tackles": 0.4167, "tackles_won": 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"step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goals": 0.023, "goal_rate": 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"substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0124, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "creation_factor": 0.9439 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.087, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9598, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5459, "team_expected_assists": 0.7066, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1326, "xa_scale": 1.2942, "opponent_lambda": 1.909, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.543 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0296, "after": 0.0182 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0462, "after": 0.0325 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0124, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0179, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "creation_factor": 0.9439, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0179, "goal_rate": 0.023, "scorer_weight": 0.0167, "squad_weight_total": 1.1221, "weight_share": 0.0149, "finishing_factor": 0.9171, "appearance_weight": 0.543, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.2431, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2431, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5611, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0325, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "total_shots": 0.4336, "total_pass": 15.3039, "accurate_pass": 12.4982, "ball_recovery": 1.6069, "duels_won": 1.862, "rating": 7.2, "minutes": 22.96, "total_long_balls": 1.2753, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7652, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8462, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5912, "crosses_total": 0.4336, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.8749, "possession_lost": 2.4996, "dispossessed": 0.9, "duels_lost": 1.2498, "aerial_won": 0.3826, "aerial_lost": 1.2, "interceptions": 0.3316, "tackles_won": 0.4336, "tackles": 0.5867, "clearances": 0.2551, "total_contest": 1.1988, "won_contest": 0.6887, "challenges_lost": 1.3, "fouls": 0.4591, "fouls_drawn": 0.3316, "goal_rate": 0.023, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1785, "shots_off_target": 0.153, "blocks": 0.102, "big_chances_created": 0.0332, "big_chances_missed": 0.0179, "xgot": 0.0124, "ball_carries": 9.1824, "total_progression": 24.2312, "progressive_carries": 2.0405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": 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0.033016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.024372 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016696 } ], "others_margin": -0.056332 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0171, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2997, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assists": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0364, "expected_goals": 0.036, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "total_shots": 0.5271, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 17.64, "total_pass": 4.1509, "accurate_pass": 3.6011, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.5497, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5497, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5668, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5668, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0342, "crosses_total": 0.9346, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.7036, "possession_lost": 2.5016, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0996, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.0996, "won_contest": 0.5497, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1509, "total_progression": 62.0437, "progressive_carries": 2.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.3043 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0171, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.6 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.0465, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "expected_goals": 0.046, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 17.64, "minutes_scale": 1.2786, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.0465, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "expected_goals": 0.046, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.046, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.087, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9598, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5459, "team_expected_assists": 0.7066, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1326, "xa_scale": 1.2942, "opponent_lambda": 1.909, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.046, "after": 0.0274 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0307, "after": 0.0209 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3288, "fifa_rank": 2350.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0267, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "scorer_weight": 0.0309, "squad_weight_total": 1.1221, "weight_share": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.2431, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2431, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0267, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0205, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "provider_weight": 0.025, "squad_weight_total": 0.7801, "weight_share": 0.032, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.1727, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1727, "runner_up": "Ryan Giles", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1505, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] }, "Robinio Vaz": { "player_id": 1514800, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 185, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, 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"has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363876, "match_date": "2026-10-11 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Everton", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Hull", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363868, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 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"contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0771, "total": 6.5772, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045548 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018498 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017091 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013842 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013028 } ], "others_margin": -0.076961 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0915, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.087, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9598, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5459, "team_expected_assists": 0.7066, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1326, "xa_scale": 1.2942, "opponent_lambda": 1.909, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0915, "after": 0.0612 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0326, "after": 0.0249 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4480, "fifa_rank": 4913.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.09, "scorer_weight": 0.0606, "squad_weight_total": 1.1221, "weight_share": 0.054, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.2431, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2431, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0199, "squad_weight_total": 0.7801, "weight_share": 0.0255, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.1727, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1727, "runner_up": "Ryan Giles", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1505, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ilyas Ansah": { "player_id": 1462742, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 197, "market_value": 16100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6188, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0414, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.9, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.052, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.022, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9535, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3787, "combined_rank_score": 1770.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3412.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ilyas Ansah", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Flamingo", "ranking": 3782 }, { "player_name": "Givairo Read", "ranking": 3783 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Vázquez", "ranking": 3784 }, { "player_name": "Çağlar Söyüncü", "ranking": 3785 }, { "player_name": "Victor Nelsson", "ranking": 3786 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kristjan Asllani", "ranking": 3788 }, { "player_name": "Chadi Riad", "ranking": 3789 }, { "player_name": "Adalberto 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"contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0771, "total": 6.5772, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045548 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018498 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017091 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013842 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013028 } ], "others_margin": -0.076961 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0915, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.087, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9598, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5459, "team_expected_assists": 0.7066, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1326, "xa_scale": 1.2942, "opponent_lambda": 1.909, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0915, "after": 0.0612 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0326, "after": 0.0249 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4480, "fifa_rank": 4913.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "goal_rate": 0.09, "scorer_weight": 0.0606, "squad_weight_total": 1.1221, "weight_share": 0.054, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.2431, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2431, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3145, "total_shots": 0.8613, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "key_pass": 0.5923, "rating": 6.5772, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 8.0551, "accurate_pass": 6.3942, "duels_won": 1.5363, "total_long_balls": 0.8304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0551, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3942, "crosses_total": 0.8304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.7366, "possession_lost": 6.2698, "dispossessed": 0.9411, "duels_lost": 2.948, "aerial_lost": 0.5536, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5363, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7059, "fouls_drawn": 1.5363, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.6609, "total_progression": 7.5475, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5467, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0581, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0244, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0199, "squad_weight_total": 0.7801, "weight_share": 0.0255, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.1727, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1727, "runner_up": "Ryan Giles", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1505, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ilyas Ansah": { "player_id": 1462742, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 197, "market_value": 16100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6188, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0414, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.9, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.052, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.022, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9535, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3787, "combined_rank_score": 1770.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3412.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ilyas Ansah", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Flamingo", "ranking": 3782 }, { "player_name": "Givairo Read", "ranking": 3783 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Vázquez", "ranking": 3784 }, { "player_name": "Çağlar Söyüncü", "ranking": 3785 }, { "player_name": "Victor Nelsson", "ranking": 3786 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kristjan Asllani", "ranking": 3788 }, { "player_name": "Chadi Riad", "ranking": 3789 }, { "player_name": "Adalberto 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0.033016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.024372 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016696 } ], "others_margin": -0.056332 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0171, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2997, "expected_assists": 0.024, "assists": 0.0364, "assist_rate": 0.0364, "expected_goals": 0.036, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.2228, "total_shots": 0.5271, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 17.64, "total_pass": 4.1509, "accurate_pass": 3.6011, "duels_won": 0.5497, "total_long_balls": 0.5497, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5497, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5668, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5668, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5839, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0342, "crosses_total": 0.9346, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.7036, "possession_lost": 2.5016, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0996, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4674, "total_contest": 1.0996, "won_contest": 0.5497, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5497, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1509, "total_progression": 62.0437, "progressive_carries": 2.0342, "shots_off_target": 0.3043 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0171, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.6 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.0465, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "expected_goals": 0.046, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 17.64, "minutes_scale": 1.2786, "appearance_probability": 0.525 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assists": 0.0465, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "expected_goals": 0.046, "goals": 0.0582, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.046, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.09 (squad xG sum 0.9598, xG scale 1.1326, xA scale 1.2942, team xA 0.71 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.087, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9598, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5459, "team_expected_assists": 0.7066, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1326, "xa_scale": 1.2942, "opponent_lambda": 1.909, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.525 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.046, "after": 0.0274 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0307, "after": 0.0209 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3288, "fifa_rank": 2350.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0267, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "scorer_weight": 0.0309, "squad_weight_total": 1.1221, "weight_share": 0.0275, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.2431, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2431, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2195 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3832, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0582, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.674, "rating": 6.6588, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 5.3075, "accurate_pass": 4.6045, "duels_won": 0.7029, "total_long_balls": 0.7029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7029, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0034, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3039, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.601, "crosses_total": 1.195, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4073, "possession_lost": 3.1986, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.406, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5976, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 0.7029, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7029, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3075, "total_progression": 79.3309, "progressive_carries": 2.601, "shots_off_target": 0.3891, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.557, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0267, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0205, "finishing_factor": 1.1271, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.0465, "provider_weight": 0.025, "squad_weight_total": 0.7801, "weight_share": 0.032, "creation_factor": 1.1958, "appearance_weight": 0.525, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.1727, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1727, "runner_up": "Ryan Giles", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1505, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.09, "expected_assists": 0.71, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 289, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.78, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } }, "Brentford": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Igor Thiago": { "player_id": 1016907, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 191, "market_value": 68000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5408, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.068, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4974, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2964, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "opponent_faced": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4177, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0657, "finishing_factor": 0.8389, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363882, "match_date": "2026-10-17 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Liverpool", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, 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"name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0418 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 6.7066, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041825 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033144 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.033015 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027254 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.017481 } ], "others_margin": -0.021412 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0113, quality 0.868)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3968, "goals": 0.3295, "goal_rate": 0.3295, "shots_on_target": 0.8283, "total_shots": 2.236, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6467, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9364, "fouls_drawn": 0.5779, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.1686, "tackles_won": 0.5799, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.5996, "xgot": 0.3649, "offsides": 0.2183, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.4076 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 68000000, "quality_factor": 0.8677, "boost_factor": 1.0113, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3968, "goals": 0.3267, "goal_rate": 0.3267, "shots_on_target": 0.8301, "total_shots": 2.2479, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6501, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.5749, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.5996, "xgot": 0.3649, "offsides": 0.2164, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.4076 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0086, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9884, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.9364, "after": 1.9243 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.236, "after": 2.2479 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5779, "after": 0.5729 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5799, "after": 0.5749 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3968, "goals": 0.3267, "goal_rate": 0.3267, "shots_on_target": 0.8301, "total_shots": 2.2479, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6501, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.5749, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.5996, "xgot": 0.3649, "offsides": 0.2164, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.4076 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5144, "goals": 0.4235, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "shots_on_target": 1.0761, "total_shots": 2.9142, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6501, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assists": 0.0026, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.5749, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.7773, "xgot": 0.4731, "offsides": 0.2164, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.8248, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2964, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "opponent_faced": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.2964, "skill_edge": 0.1936, "height_edge": 0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.8677, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "John Egan", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "market_value": 930000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.5144 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2479, "after": 2.9142 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4076, "after": 1.8248 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8301, "after": 1.0761 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5996, "after": 0.7773 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3968, "after": 0.5144 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3649, "after": 0.4731 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3267, "after": 0.4235 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5144, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0761, "total_shots": 2.9142, "expected_assists": 0.05, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6501, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.5749, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.7773, "xgot": 0.4731, "offsides": 0.2164, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.8248, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2964, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "opponent_faced": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5408, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0761, "total_shots": 2.9142, "expected_assists": 0.068, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6501, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assist_rate": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.5749, "tackles": 0.933, "clearances": 1.0533, "blocks": 0.4164, "big_chances_created": 0.0712, "big_chances_missed": 0.7773, "xgot": 0.4974, "offsides": 0.2164, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.8248, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2964, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "opponent_faced": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8389, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.5144, "after": 0.5408 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.05, "after": 0.068 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.7773, "xgot": 0.4974, "offsides": 0.2164, "ball_carries": 6.8605, "total_progression": 1.4473, "progressive_carries": 0.6259, "shots_off_target": 1.8248, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2964, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "opponent_faced": "John Egan, Semi Ajayi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8389, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 854, "fifa_rank": 388.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5408, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0761, "total_shots": 2.9142, "expected_assists": 0.068, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 19.4978, "accurate_pass": 14.3655, "duels_won": 4.9843, "total_long_balls": 1.0133, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4722, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3615, "crosses_total": 0.6501, "crosses_accurate": 0.087, "touches": 35.0134, "possession_lost": 11.2253, "dispossessed": 1.0281, "duels_lost": 9.1084, "aerial_lost": 5.1471, "total_contest": 1.2265, "won_contest": 0.5314, "ball_recovery": 2.2524, "challenges_lost": 0.4035, "fouls": 1.9243, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assist_rate": 0.0026, 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"goal_probability": 0.4177, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "scorer_weight": 0.4537, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.2315, "finishing_factor": 0.8389, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5408, "goal_rate": 0.4235, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0761, "total_shots": 2.9142, "expected_assists": 0.068, "key_pass": 0.7372, "rating": 6.7066, "minutes": 88.96, "total_pass": 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0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.194 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0441 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0261 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 0.7496, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.253009 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052087 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046558 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.037178 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.035088 } ], "others_margin": 0.024299 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.968907356262207, "model_output": 6.9689, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0505 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.016 } ], "others": 0.0462, "total": 7.1045, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.096421 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.050501 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029799 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.016699 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016002 } ], "others_margin": 0.046207 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6786, "expected_assists": 0.1752, "assists": 0.1076, "assist_rate": 0.1076, "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goals": 0.0842, "goal_rate": 0.0842, "shots_on_target": 0.3313, "total_shots": 1.1152, "rating": 7.1045, "minutes": 80.48, "total_pass": 41.362, "accurate_pass": 32.0344, "duels_won": 4.6812, "total_long_balls": 4.6316, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4087, "total_own_half_passes": 11.661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3568, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.701, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6776, "crosses_total": 3.3131, "crosses_accurate": 0.6337, "touches": 57.8045, "possession_lost": 16.6641, "dispossessed": 1.2284, "duels_lost": 5.1556, "aerial_won": 0.8055, "aerial_lost": 0.5434, "interceptions": 0.8657, "tackles_won": 1.245, "tackles": 2.1489, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2116, "goals": 0.2526, "goal_rate": 0.2526, "shots_on_target": 0.5777, "total_shots": 1.6663, "expected_assists": 0.096, "key_pass": 1.0979, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 79.61, "total_pass": 24.9106, "accurate_pass": 20.2187, "duels_won": 3.6738, "total_long_balls": 2.0382, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7796, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.183, "crosses_total": 2.3011, "crosses_accurate": 0.5137, "touches": 43.0833, "possession_lost": 12.8432, "dispossessed": 1.1401, "duels_lost": 6.0013, "aerial_lost": 0.811, "total_contest": 3.4226, "won_contest": 1.0233, "ball_recovery": 3.1987, "challenges_lost": 0.5524, "fouls": 1.0986, "fouls_drawn": 1.1308, "assists": 0.0577, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "interceptions": 0.1696, 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1291 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0673 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0238 } ], "others": -0.0793, "total": 1.1159, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129141 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.067265 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.045364 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029906 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.023831 } ], "others_margin": -0.079297 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.085905075073242, "model_output": 7.0859, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1012 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0894 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.018 } ], "others": 0.0189, "total": 7.0859, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.101165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089391 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027734 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.018165 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.018029 } ], "others_margin": 0.01888 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4893, "expected_assists": 0.166, "assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.119, "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goals": 0.1003, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "shots_on_target": 0.3421, "total_shots": 1.1158, "rating": 7.0859, "minutes": 81.96, "total_pass": 41.5934, "accurate_pass": 33.6542, "duels_won": 2.9979, "total_long_balls": 7.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9096, "total_own_half_passes": 15.568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4209, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 0.8908, "tackles_won": 0.6222, "tackles": 1.5313, "clearances": 1.2493, "total_contest": 1.0861, "won_contest": 0.4528, "challenges_lost": 1.2854, "fouls": 1.095, "fouls_drawn": 0.7724, "blocks": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.502, "big_chances_missed": 0.1847, "xgot": 0.0572, "ball_carries": 13.2439, "total_progression": 42.6949, "progressive_carries": 0.8717, "shots_off_target": 0.7737 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4893, "expected_assists": 0.166, "assists": 0.1186, "assist_rate": 0.1186, "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goals": 0.0999, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "shots_on_target": 0.3453, "total_shots": 1.1208, "rating": 7.0859, "minutes": 81.96, "total_pass": 41.5934, "accurate_pass": 33.6542, "duels_won": 2.9979, "total_long_balls": 7.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9096, "total_own_half_passes": 15.568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4284, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 0.8876, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "tackles": 1.5313, "clearances": 1.2493, "total_contest": 1.0861, "won_contest": 0.4528, "challenges_lost": 1.2854, "fouls": 1.1051, "fouls_drawn": 0.7696, "blocks": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.502, "big_chances_missed": 0.1847, "xgot": 0.0572, "ball_carries": 13.2439, "total_progression": 42.6949, "progressive_carries": 0.8717, "shots_off_target": 0.7737 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0036, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9107, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.095, "after": 1.1051 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.4209, "after": 4.4284 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1158, "after": 1.1208 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4893, "expected_assists": 0.166, "assists": 0.1186, "assist_rate": 0.1186, "expected_goals": 0.0813, "goals": 0.0999, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "shots_on_target": 0.3453, "total_shots": 1.1208, "rating": 7.0859, "minutes": 81.96, "total_pass": 41.5934, "accurate_pass": 33.6542, "duels_won": 2.9979, "total_long_balls": 7.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9096, "total_own_half_passes": 15.568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4284, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 0.2414, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4284, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 0.8876, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "tackles": 1.5313, "clearances": 1.2493, "total_contest": 1.0861, "won_contest": 0.4528, "challenges_lost": 1.2854, "fouls": 1.1051, "fouls_drawn": 0.7696, "blocks": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.502, "big_chances_missed": 0.1872, "xgot": 0.058, "ball_carries": 13.2439, "total_progression": 42.6949, "progressive_carries": 0.8717, "shots_off_target": 0.7841, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0135, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0135, "skill_edge": 0.0292, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.5023, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "John Egan", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0824 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2414, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1208, "after": 1.1359 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7737, "after": 0.7841 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4893, "expected_assists": 0.166, "assist_rate": 0.1186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.35, "total_shots": 1.1359, "rating": 7.0859, "minutes": 81.96, "total_pass": 41.5934, "accurate_pass": 33.6542, "duels_won": 2.9979, "total_long_balls": 7.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9096, "total_own_half_passes": 15.568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4284, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 0.8876, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "tackles": 1.5313, "clearances": 1.2493, "total_contest": 1.0861, "won_contest": 0.4528, "challenges_lost": 1.2854, "fouls": 1.1051, "fouls_drawn": 0.7696, "blocks": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 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"assist_rate": 0.1186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0866, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.35, "total_shots": 1.1359, "rating": 7.0859, "minutes": 81.96, "total_pass": 41.5934, "accurate_pass": 33.6542, "duels_won": 2.9979, "total_long_balls": 7.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9096, "total_own_half_passes": 15.568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4284, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 0.8876, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "tackles": 1.5313, "clearances": 1.2493, "total_contest": 1.0861, "won_contest": 0.4528, "challenges_lost": 1.2854, "fouls": 1.1051, "fouls_drawn": 0.7696, "blocks": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.502, "big_chances_missed": 0.1872, "xgot": 0.061, "ball_carries": 13.2439, "total_progression": 42.6949, "progressive_carries": 0.8717, "shots_off_target": 0.7841, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0135, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.142, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.166, "after": 0.2259 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4893, "expected_assists": 0.2259, "assist_rate": 0.1186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0866, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.35, "total_shots": 1.1359, "rating": 7.0859, "minutes": 81.96, "total_pass": 41.5934, "accurate_pass": 33.6542, "duels_won": 2.9979, "total_long_balls": 7.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9096, "total_own_half_passes": 15.568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4284, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 0.8876, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "tackles": 1.5313, "clearances": 1.2493, "total_contest": 1.0861, "won_contest": 0.4528, "challenges_lost": 1.2854, "fouls": 1.1051, "fouls_drawn": 0.7696, "blocks": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.502, "big_chances_missed": 0.1872, "xgot": 0.061, "ball_carries": 13.2439, "total_progression": 42.6949, "progressive_carries": 0.8717, "shots_off_target": 0.7841, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0135, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "John Egan", "opponent_faced": "John Egan", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.142, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 831, "fifa_rank": 671.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4893, "expected_assists": 0.2259, "assist_rate": 0.1186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0866, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.35, "total_shots": 1.1359, "rating": 7.0859, "minutes": 81.96, "total_pass": 41.5934, "accurate_pass": 33.6542, "duels_won": 2.9979, "total_long_balls": 7.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9096, "total_own_half_passes": 15.568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2054, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.0254, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.4489, "crosses_total": 4.4284, "crosses_accurate": 1.6995, "touches": 58.1679, "possession_lost": 14.0353, "dispossessed": 0.9625, "duels_lost": 4.5313, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5552, "interceptions": 0.8876, "tackles_won": 0.6247, "tackles": 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 0.0873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.155235 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.143367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122251 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104576 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.08415 } ], "others_margin": -0.190522 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2313273847103119, "model_output": 0.2313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1486 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0307 } ], "others": -0.0866, "total": 1.0347, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.14858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046451 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.036839 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.034828 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.030716 } ], "others_margin": -0.086588 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.85163688659668, "model_output": 6.8516, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 } ], "others": -0.0313, "total": 6.8516, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030922 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014934 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012869 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008126 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0473, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7184, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.0663, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goals": 0.0914, "goal_rate": 0.0914, "shots_on_target": 0.2423, "total_shots": 1.0837, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.8016, "accurate_pass": 31.9257, "duels_won": 7.089, "total_long_balls": 4.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7895, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7818, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1438, "crosses_total": 0.4392, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1039, "possession_lost": 12.6128, "dispossessed": 1.3697, "duels_lost": 5.4676, "aerial_won": 0.8948, "aerial_lost": 0.7543, "interceptions": 1.3954, "tackles_won": 1.9777, "tackles": 3.6048, "clearances": 0.9698, "total_contest": 2.4726, "won_contest": 1.7046, "challenges_lost": 0.4036, "fouls": 2.1721, "fouls_drawn": 0.8849, "blocks": 0.2374, "big_chances_created": 0.2018, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 14.244, "total_progression": 48.2944, "progressive_carries": 1.0966, "shots_off_target": 0.8414 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 49000000, "quality_factor": 0.8206, "boost_factor": 1.0473, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0390)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7184, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assists": 0.0827, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goals": 0.0878, "goal_rate": 0.0878, "shots_on_target": 0.2516, "total_shots": 1.1159, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.8016, "accurate_pass": 31.9257, "duels_won": 7.089, "total_long_balls": 4.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7895, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7818, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1438, "crosses_total": 0.46, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1039, "possession_lost": 12.6128, "dispossessed": 1.3697, "duels_lost": 5.4676, "aerial_won": 0.8948, "aerial_lost": 0.7543, "interceptions": 1.4549, "tackles_won": 1.9575, "tackles": 3.6048, "clearances": 0.9698, "total_contest": 2.4726, "won_contest": 1.7046, "challenges_lost": 0.4036, "fouls": 2.1443, "fouls_drawn": 0.9074, "blocks": 0.2374, "big_chances_created": 0.2018, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 14.244, "total_progression": 48.2944, "progressive_carries": 1.0966, "shots_off_target": 0.8414 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.039, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8763, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3954, "after": 1.4549 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0837, "after": 1.1159 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.1721, "after": 2.1443 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8849, "after": 0.9074 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4392, "after": 0.46 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.9777, "after": 1.9575 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0663, "after": 0.0827 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2423, "after": 0.2516 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7184, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assists": 0.0827, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goals": 0.0878, "goal_rate": 0.0878, "shots_on_target": 0.2516, "total_shots": 1.1159, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.8016, "accurate_pass": 31.9257, "duels_won": 7.089, "total_long_balls": 4.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7895, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7818, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1438, "crosses_total": 0.46, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1039, "possession_lost": 12.6128, "dispossessed": 1.3697, "duels_lost": 5.4676, "aerial_won": 0.8948, "aerial_lost": 0.7543, "interceptions": 1.4549, "tackles_won": 1.9575, "tackles": 3.6048, "clearances": 0.9698, "total_contest": 2.4726, "won_contest": 1.7046, "challenges_lost": 0.4036, "fouls": 2.1443, "fouls_drawn": 0.9074, "blocks": 0.2374, "big_chances_created": 0.2018, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 14.244, "total_progression": 48.2944, "progressive_carries": 1.0966, "shots_off_target": 0.8414 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7184, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assists": 0.0827, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goals": 0.0878, "goal_rate": 0.0878, "shots_on_target": 0.2516, "total_shots": 1.1159, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.8016, "accurate_pass": 31.9257, "duels_won": 7.089, "total_long_balls": 4.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7895, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7818, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1438, "crosses_total": 0.46, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1039, "possession_lost": 12.6128, "dispossessed": 1.3697, "duels_lost": 5.4676, "aerial_won": 0.8948, "aerial_lost": 0.7543, "interceptions": 1.4549, "tackles_won": 1.9575, "tackles": 3.6048, "clearances": 0.9698, "total_contest": 2.4726, "won_contest": 1.7046, "challenges_lost": 0.4036, "fouls": 2.1443, "fouls_drawn": 0.9074, "blocks": 0.2374, "big_chances_created": 0.2018, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 14.244, "total_progression": 48.2944, "progressive_carries": 1.0966, "shots_off_target": 0.8414, "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7184, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0715, "goal_rate": 0.0878, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2516, "total_shots": 1.1159, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.8016, "accurate_pass": 31.9257, "duels_won": 7.089, "total_long_balls": 4.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7895, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7818, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1438, "crosses_total": 0.46, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1039, "possession_lost": 12.6128, "dispossessed": 1.3697, "duels_lost": 5.4676, "aerial_won": 0.8948, "aerial_lost": 0.7543, "interceptions": 1.4549, "tackles_won": 1.9575, "tackles": 3.6048, "clearances": 0.9698, "total_contest": 2.4726, "won_contest": 1.7046, "challenges_lost": 0.4036, "fouls": 2.1443, "fouls_drawn": 0.9074, "blocks": 0.2374, "big_chances_created": 0.2018, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0363, "ball_carries": 14.244, "total_progression": 48.2944, "progressive_carries": 1.0966, "shots_off_target": 0.8414, "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7184, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0878, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2516, "total_shots": 1.1159, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.8016, "accurate_pass": 31.9257, "duels_won": 7.089, "total_long_balls": 4.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7895, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7818, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1438, "crosses_total": 0.46, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1039, "possession_lost": 12.6128, "dispossessed": 1.3697, "duels_lost": 5.4676, "aerial_won": 0.8948, "aerial_lost": 0.7543, "interceptions": 1.4549, "tackles_won": 1.9575, "tackles": 3.6048, "clearances": 0.9698, "total_contest": 2.4726, "won_contest": 1.7046, "challenges_lost": 0.4036, "fouls": 2.1443, "fouls_drawn": 0.9074, "blocks": 0.2374, "big_chances_created": 0.2018, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0382, "ball_carries": 14.244, "total_progression": 48.2944, "progressive_carries": 1.0966, "shots_off_target": 0.8414, "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1342, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.052, "after": 0.0707 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7184, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "assist_rate": 0.0827, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0878, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2516, "total_shots": 1.1159, "rating": 6.8516, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 39.8016, "accurate_pass": 31.9257, "duels_won": 7.089, "total_long_balls": 4.1153, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7895, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9613, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7818, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.8401, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.1438, "crosses_total": 0.46, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.1039, "possession_lost": 12.6128, "dispossessed": 1.3697, "duels_lost": 5.4676, "aerial_won": 0.8948, "aerial_lost": 0.7543, "interceptions": 1.4549, "tackles_won": 1.9575, "tackles": 3.6048, "clearances": 0.9698, "total_contest": 2.4726, "won_contest": 1.7046, "challenges_lost": 0.4036, "fouls": 2.1443, "fouls_drawn": 0.9074, "blocks": 0.2374, "big_chances_created": 0.2018, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0382, "ball_carries": 14.244, "total_progression": 48.2944, "progressive_carries": 1.0966, "shots_off_target": 0.8414, "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1342, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1027, "fifa_rank": 522.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", 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"duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lewie Coyle", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8321, "tackles": 1.4322, "tackles_won": 0.8306, "clearances": 2.4619, "aerial_won": 0.6937, "total_shots": 1.0113, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 83.28, "total_pass": 30.1039, "accurate_pass": 23.1637, "duels_won": 3.2643, "total_long_balls": 4.2417, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3629, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8793, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2845, "crosses_total": 3.9757, "crosses_accurate": 1.205, "touches": 50.8014, "possession_lost": 13.9366, "dispossessed": 0.5533, "duels_lost": 4.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.71, "total_contest": 1.8227, "won_contest": 0.6679, "ball_recovery": 3.6962, 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contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8321, "tackles": 1.4322, "tackles_won": 0.8306, "clearances": 2.4619, "aerial_won": 0.6937, "total_shots": 1.0113, "rating": 6.7012, "minutes": 83.28, "total_pass": 30.1039, "accurate_pass": 23.1637, "duels_won": 3.2643, "total_long_balls": 4.2417, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3629, "total_own_half_passes": 12.8384, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.8793, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2845, "crosses_total": 3.9757, "crosses_accurate": 1.205, "touches": 50.8014, "possession_lost": 13.9366, "dispossessed": 0.5533, "duels_lost": 4.8129, "aerial_lost": 1.71, "total_contest": 1.8227, "won_contest": 0.6679, "ball_recovery": 3.6962, "challenges_lost": 0.2002, "fouls": 1.1922, "fouls_drawn": 0.9545, "blocks": 0.3147, "goal_rate": 0.1149, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1569, "assists": 0, 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"dispossessed": 0.192, "duels_lost": 3.3311, "aerial_lost": 2.3818, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0267, "challenges_lost": 0.2889, "fouls": 0.5254, "fouls_drawn": 0.3427, "blocks": 0.8316, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0298, "expected_goals": 0.0864, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "shots_on_target": 0.2325, "big_chances_created": 0.1263, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 12.9857, "total_progression": 54.2691, "progressive_carries": 0.8992, "key_pass": 0.2003, "shots_off_target": 0.382 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-27", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-16", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.2006, "aerialWon": 4.3078, "totalClearance_p90": 9.1862, "totalTackle": 1.1413, "totalPass": 40.9141 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0231013298034668, "model_output": 1.0231, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1082 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 } ], "others": 0.0097, "total": 1.0231, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118814 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037308 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.02654 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02184 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015784 } ], "others_margin": 0.009632 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.3563084602355957, "model_output": 1.3563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1801 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0635 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0606 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0369 } ], "others": -0.1266, "total": 1.3563, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121534 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.043453 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039384 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.03913 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.024588 } ], "others_margin": -0.089208 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8050853610038757, "model_output": 0.8051, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1042 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0408 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": -0.0911, "total": 0.8051, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115046 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.043523 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.043381 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.035727 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.031519 } ], "others_margin": -0.107052 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.988109588623047, "model_output": 5.9881, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7349 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.577 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.4646 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3178 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2821 } ], "others": 0.1603, "total": 5.9881, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.193047 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129128 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.093061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059016 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.049621 } ], "others_margin": 0.027118 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.1388044357299805, "model_output": 3.1388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.7727 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2319 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2344 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1872 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1904 } ], "others": 0.1402, "total": 3.1388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.444126 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102221 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.093667 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.068998 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.065586 } ], "others_margin": 0.045691 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6145496964454651, "model_output": 0.6145, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0613 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": 0.0152, "total": 0.6145, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061346 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042388 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02359 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.021606 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020704 } ], "others_margin": 0.015192 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.915069103240967, "model_output": 6.9151, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0191, "total": 6.9151, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.037068 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024844 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018425 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.017394 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013222 } ], "others_margin": 0.018984 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0095, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, "accurate_pass": 40.429, "duels_won": 6.1954, "total_long_balls": 3.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 30.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8303, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5987, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.0776, "possession_lost": 6.6926, "dispossessed": 0.1938, "duels_lost": 3.3627, "aerial_lost": 2.4044, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0555, "challenges_lost": 0.2916, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.346, "blocks": 0.8395, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0301, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "expected_goals": 0.0872, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.1275, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 13.1091, "total_progression": 54.7847, "progressive_carries": 0.9077, "key_pass": 0.2022, "shots_off_target": 0.3856 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0095, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, "accurate_pass": 40.429, "duels_won": 6.1954, "total_long_balls": 3.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 30.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8303, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5987, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.0776, "possession_lost": 6.6926, "dispossessed": 0.1938, "duels_lost": 3.3627, "aerial_lost": 2.4044, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0555, "challenges_lost": 0.2916, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.346, "blocks": 0.8395, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0301, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "expected_goals": 0.0872, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.1275, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 13.1091, "total_progression": 54.7847, "progressive_carries": 0.9077, "key_pass": 0.2022, "shots_off_target": 0.3856 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, "accurate_pass": 40.429, "duels_won": 6.1954, "total_long_balls": 3.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 30.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8303, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5987, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.0776, "possession_lost": 6.6926, "dispossessed": 0.1938, "duels_lost": 3.3627, "aerial_lost": 2.4044, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0555, "challenges_lost": 0.2916, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.346, "blocks": 0.8395, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0301, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "expected_goals": 0.0872, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.1275, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 13.1091, "total_progression": 54.7847, "progressive_carries": 0.9077, "key_pass": 0.2022, "shots_off_target": 0.3856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, "accurate_pass": 40.429, "duels_won": 6.1954, "total_long_balls": 3.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 30.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8303, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5987, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.0776, "possession_lost": 6.6926, "dispossessed": 0.1938, "duels_lost": 3.3627, "aerial_lost": 2.4044, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0555, "challenges_lost": 0.2916, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.346, "blocks": 0.8395, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0872, "expected_assists": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.1275, "xgot": 0.017, "ball_carries": 13.1091, "total_progression": 54.7847, "progressive_carries": 0.9077, "key_pass": 0.2022, "shots_off_target": 0.3856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, "accurate_pass": 40.429, "duels_won": 6.1954, "total_long_balls": 3.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 30.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8303, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5987, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.0776, "possession_lost": 6.6926, "dispossessed": 0.1938, "duels_lost": 3.3627, "aerial_lost": 2.4044, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0555, "challenges_lost": 0.2916, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.346, "blocks": 0.8395, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0917, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.1275, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 13.1091, "total_progression": 54.7847, "progressive_carries": 0.9077, "key_pass": 0.2022, "shots_off_target": 0.3856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8405 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0453, "after": 0.0616 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, "accurate_pass": 40.429, "duels_won": 6.1954, "total_long_balls": 3.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 30.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8303, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5987, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.0776, "possession_lost": 6.6926, "dispossessed": 0.1938, "duels_lost": 3.3627, "aerial_lost": 2.4044, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0555, "challenges_lost": 0.2916, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.346, "blocks": 0.8395, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0917, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.1275, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 13.1091, "total_progression": 54.7847, "progressive_carries": 0.9077, "key_pass": 0.2022, "shots_off_target": 0.3856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8405, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2127, "fifa_rank": 1105.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, "accurate_pass": 40.429, "duels_won": 6.1954, "total_long_balls": 3.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2622, "total_own_half_passes": 30.7458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8303, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4623, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5987, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 59.0776, "possession_lost": 6.6926, "dispossessed": 0.1938, "duels_lost": 3.3627, "aerial_lost": 2.4044, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.0555, "challenges_lost": 0.2916, "fouls": 0.5304, "fouls_drawn": 0.346, "blocks": 0.8395, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0917, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "shots_on_target": 0.2347, "big_chances_created": 0.1275, "xgot": 0.0179, "ball_carries": 13.1091, "total_progression": 54.7847, "progressive_carries": 0.9077, "key_pass": 0.2022, "shots_off_target": 0.3856, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8405, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0734, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.0374, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0328, "tackles": 1.3692, "tackles_won": 0.8127, "clearances": 6.045, "aerial_won": 3.1686, "total_shots": 0.6204, "rating": 6.9151, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2081, 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"aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0876, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0597, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8405, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0301, "provider_weight": 0.0518, "squad_weight_total": 1.1031, "weight_share": 0.0469, "creation_factor": 0.8405, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "weight": 0.2061, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2061, "runner_up": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1907 } ] } } ] }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "player_id": 576384, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 196, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 14, 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"lower": [ { "player_name": "Stefan Posch", "ranking": 2164 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Domínguez", "ranking": 2165 }, { "player_name": "Mario Lemina", "ranking": 2166 }, { "player_name": "Yegor Kondratyuk", "ranking": 2167 }, { "player_name": "Katulondi Kati", "ranking": 2168 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", 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0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120419 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.065894 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.038285 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.031192 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.030163 } ], "others_margin": -0.043686 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7671541571617126, "model_output": 0.7672, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0984 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0505 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": 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"contribution": 0.636 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2399 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2404 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1867 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.149 } ], "others": 0.0507, "total": 2.8847, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.378548 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.112317 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.10119 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.07208 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.054023 } ], "others_margin": 0.017706 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.44780269265174866, "model_output": 0.4478, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0845 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 0.4478, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.084469 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054187 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.019866 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.018696 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.015079 } ], "others_margin": -0.01653 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.72639799118042, "model_output": 6.7264, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0306 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 6.7264, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030625 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015599 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013672 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012542 } ], "others_margin": -0.032183 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0237, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7731, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4513, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1454, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8854, "fouls_drawn": 0.345, "blocks": 0.6116, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.111, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4517, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0117, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9742, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0161, "expected_assists": 0.0186, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0112, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0186, "after": 0.0253 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2163, "fifa_rank": 1412.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Mohamed Belloumi", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0168, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0135, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.0069, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0231, "tackles": 1.3875, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 6.0281, "aerial_won": 2.9069, "total_shots": 0.4556, "rating": 6.7264, "minutes": 87.68, "total_pass": 39.705, "accurate_pass": 33.1328, "duels_won": 4.3799, "total_long_balls": 3.6092, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1252, "total_own_half_passes": 25.4373, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9551, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2677, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1776, "crosses_total": 0.1437, "crosses_accurate": 0.0493, "touches": 52.9623, "possession_lost": 7.5257, "dispossessed": 0.3941, "duels_lost": 3.8142, "aerial_lost": 1.9317, "total_contest": 0.2479, "won_contest": 0.0683, "ball_recovery": 2.6718, "challenges_lost": 0.4304, "fouls": 0.8864, "fouls_drawn": 0.3467, "blocks": 0.6116, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0169, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "shots_on_target": 0.1154, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0118, "ball_carries": 14.2679, "total_progression": 68.8967, "progressive_carries": 1.2126, "key_pass": 0.4413, "shots_off_target": 0.3402, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 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"totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1403 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1302 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1137 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0649 } ], "others": -0.2099, "total": 0.9139, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.15577 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.126279 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117722 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.101947 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059441 } ], "others_margin": -0.206776 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6263373494148254, "model_output": 0.6263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0682 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 0.6263, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06815 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.040769 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02942 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.015291 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012247 } ], "others_margin": 0.019909 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.691627502441406, "model_output": 6.6916, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0331, "total": 6.6916, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.033332 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016993 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016363 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013387 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013111 } ], "others_margin": -0.033045 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.775)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0451, "tackles": 1.5339, "tackles_won": 0.9697, "clearances": 2.345, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "total_shots": 0.6317, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 79.91, "total_pass": 22.5874, "accurate_pass": 18.4568, "duels_won": 4.4599, "total_long_balls": 1.4938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7684, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7064, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7504, "crosses_total": 1.122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1434, "touches": 45.8624, "possession_lost": 12.1217, "dispossessed": 0.5644, "duels_lost": 4.5802, "aerial_lost": 0.9117, "total_contest": 2.4914, "won_contest": 1.1862, "ball_recovery": 3.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.8919, "fouls_drawn": 1.1019, "blocks": 0.564, "goals": 0.1249, 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"after": 0.6469 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1019, "after": 1.1091 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.122, "after": 1.1291 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0446, "tackles": 1.5339, "tackles_won": 0.9657, "clearances": 2.345, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "total_shots": 0.6469, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 79.91, "total_pass": 22.5874, "accurate_pass": 18.4568, "duels_won": 4.4599, "total_long_balls": 1.4938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7684, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7064, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7504, "crosses_total": 1.1291, "crosses_accurate": 0.1434, "touches": 45.8624, "possession_lost": 12.1217, "dispossessed": 0.5644, "duels_lost": 4.5802, "aerial_lost": 0.9117, "total_contest": 2.4914, "won_contest": 1.1862, "ball_recovery": 3.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.8927, "fouls_drawn": 1.1091, "blocks": 0.564, "goals": 0.128, "goal_rate": 0.128, "assists": 0.0297, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "big_chances_created": 0.0413, "xgot": 0.1228, "ball_carries": 9.2652, "total_progression": 45.8949, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "key_pass": 0.5668, "shots_off_target": 0.4744 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0446, "tackles": 1.5339, "tackles_won": 0.9657, "clearances": 2.345, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "total_shots": 0.6469, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 79.91, "total_pass": 22.5874, "accurate_pass": 18.4568, "duels_won": 4.4599, "total_long_balls": 1.4938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7684, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7064, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0216, 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Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0446, "tackles": 1.5339, "tackles_won": 0.9657, "clearances": 2.345, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "total_shots": 0.6469, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 79.91, "total_pass": 22.5874, "accurate_pass": 18.4568, "duels_won": 4.4599, "total_long_balls": 1.4938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7684, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7064, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7504, "crosses_total": 1.1291, "crosses_accurate": 0.1434, "touches": 45.8624, "possession_lost": 12.1217, "dispossessed": 0.5644, "duels_lost": 4.5802, "aerial_lost": 0.9117, "total_contest": 2.4914, "won_contest": 1.1862, "ball_recovery": 3.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.8927, "fouls_drawn": 1.1091, "blocks": 0.564, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0842, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "big_chances_created": 0.0413, "xgot": 0.1228, "ball_carries": 9.2652, "total_progression": 45.8949, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "key_pass": 0.5668, "shots_off_target": 0.4744, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.707, "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0446, "tackles": 1.5339, "tackles_won": 0.9657, "clearances": 2.345, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "total_shots": 0.6469, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 79.91, "total_pass": 22.5874, "accurate_pass": 18.4568, "duels_won": 4.4599, "total_long_balls": 1.4938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7684, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7064, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7504, "crosses_total": 1.1291, "crosses_accurate": 0.1434, "touches": 45.8624, "possession_lost": 12.1217, "dispossessed": 0.5644, "duels_lost": 4.5802, "aerial_lost": 0.9117, "total_contest": 2.4914, "won_contest": 1.1862, "ball_recovery": 3.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.8927, "fouls_drawn": 1.1091, "blocks": 0.564, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0885, "expected_assists": 0.0754, "shots_on_target": 0.16, "big_chances_created": 0.0413, "xgot": 0.1291, "ball_carries": 9.2652, "total_progression": 45.8949, "progressive_carries": 1.2808, "key_pass": 0.5668, "shots_off_target": 0.4744, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.707, "opponent_faced": "Regan Slater", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0554, "after": 0.0754 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0446, "tackles": 1.5339, "tackles_won": 0.9657, "clearances": 2.345, "aerial_won": 0.9217, "total_shots": 0.6469, "rating": 6.6916, "minutes": 79.91, "total_pass": 22.5874, "accurate_pass": 18.4568, "duels_won": 4.4599, "total_long_balls": 1.4938, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7684, "total_own_half_passes": 12.5658, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7064, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0216, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7504, "crosses_total": 1.1291, "crosses_accurate": 0.1434, "touches": 45.8624, "possession_lost": 12.1217, "dispossessed": 0.5644, "duels_lost": 4.5802, "aerial_lost": 0.9117, "total_contest": 2.4914, "won_contest": 1.1862, "ball_recovery": 3.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.9653, "fouls": 0.8927, "fouls_drawn": 1.1091, "blocks": 0.564, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0885, "expected_assists": 0.0754, 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"name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0031, "total": 6.9855, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015362 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.012554 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.010559 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.009852 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008181 } ], "others_margin": -0.003154 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0065, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1212, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, "aerial_won": 0.4161, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 2.0853, "possession_lost": 12.0147, "duels_won": 0.4754, "duels_lost": 0.0875, "total_contest": 0.044, "won_contest": 0.044, "fouls": 0.0654, "fouls_drawn": 0.0181, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5783 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0065, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1155, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, "aerial_won": 0.4161, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 2.0853, "possession_lost": 12.0147, "duels_won": 0.4754, "duels_lost": 0.0875, "total_contest": 0.044, "won_contest": 0.044, "fouls": 0.0648, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5783 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.1212, "after": 3.1155 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1155, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, "aerial_won": 0.4161, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 2.0853, "possession_lost": 12.0147, "duels_won": 0.4754, "duels_lost": 0.0875, "total_contest": 0.044, "won_contest": 0.044, "fouls": 0.0648, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5783 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1155, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, "aerial_won": 0.4161, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 2.0853, "possession_lost": 12.0147, "duels_won": 0.4754, "duels_lost": 0.0875, "total_contest": 0.044, "won_contest": 0.044, "fouls": 0.0648, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1651, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1651 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.1155, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, "aerial_won": 0.4161, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 2.0853, "possession_lost": 12.0147, "duels_won": 0.4754, "duels_lost": 0.0875, "total_contest": 0.044, "won_contest": 0.044, "fouls": 0.0648, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1651, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1155, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, "aerial_won": 0.4161, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 2.0853, "possession_lost": 12.0147, "duels_won": 0.4754, "duels_lost": 0.0875, "total_contest": 0.044, "won_contest": 0.044, "fouls": 0.0648, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1651, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.1, "after": 10.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.72, "after": 2.52 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.93, "after": 0.87 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1155, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, "aerial_won": 0.4161, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 2.0853, "possession_lost": 12.0147, "duels_won": 0.4754, "duels_lost": 0.0875, "total_contest": 0.044, "won_contest": 0.044, "fouls": 0.0648, "fouls_drawn": 0.0179, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.5783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1651, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.52, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1155, "goals_prevented": -0.0337, "rating": 6.9855, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 35.083, "accurate_pass": 23.2417, "total_long_balls": 18.1638, "accurate_long_balls": 6.3246, "touches": 45.9889, "clearances": 1.5036, "ball_recovery": 8.3728, "high_claims": 0.8391, "punches": 1.1474, 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1.0097, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Brentford", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (34 historical appearances) to 14.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.36); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3799, "tackles": 0.6203, "tackles_won": 0.4125, "clearances": 1.0811, "aerial_won": 0.576, "total_shots": 0.163, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 22.02, "total_pass": 8.8953, "accurate_pass": 6.1691, "duels_won": 2.2853, "total_long_balls": 1.6391, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7262, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.558, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6111, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6111, "crosses_total": 0.7262, 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"is_starting": false, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 8.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-10", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.3137, "aerialWon": 1.2228, "totalClearance_p90": 4.1098, "totalTackle": 1.1207, "totalPass": 30.0563 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3799420893192291, "model_output": 0.3799, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4613 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.016, "total": 0.3799, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.772413 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031655 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.027142 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.024595 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.019774 } ], "others_margin": -0.041016 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6203227043151855, "model_output": 0.6203, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7323 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0233, "total": 0.6203, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.745158 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.027551 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.026939 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.024754 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.023508 } ], "others_margin": 0.038306 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4124593734741211, "model_output": 0.4125, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4159 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0028, "total": 0.4125, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.666995 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032006 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.029422 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.026455 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.025336 } ], "others_margin": -0.006835 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.0810973644256592, "model_output": 1.0811, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0843 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.204 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.1032 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0899 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0336 } ], "others": -0.0351, "total": 1.0811, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.926112 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.161635 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.092919 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.081437 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.029683 } ], "others_margin": -0.031893 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5760146379470825, "model_output": 0.576, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7194 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 0.576, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.735117 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.075882 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.026434 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.022332 } ], "others_margin": -0.02564 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1629701554775238, "model_output": 0.163, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.04, "total": 0.163, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.238928 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.02276 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014488 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.011218 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009677 } ], "others_margin": -0.040067 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734158039093018, "model_output": 6.7342, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0118 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 6.7342, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016962 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014689 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011919 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.01185 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011707 } ], "others_margin": -0.036925 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3836, "tackles": 0.6263, "tackles_won": 0.4165, "clearances": 1.0916, "aerial_won": 0.5816, "total_shots": 0.1646, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 22.02, "total_pass": 8.9816, "accurate_pass": 6.2289, "duels_won": 2.3075, "total_long_balls": 1.655, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7332, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3161, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5828, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6655, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6461, "crosses_total": 0.7332, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7136, "possession_lost": 6.4529, "dispossessed": 0.4579, "duels_lost": 1.7688, "aerial_lost": 1.311, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2693, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6929, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0846, "total_progression": 7.005, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1646 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 14.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2586, "tackles": 0.4221, "tackles_won": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.7358, "aerial_won": 0.392, "total_shots": 0.1109, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 6.0539, "accurate_pass": 4.1985, "duels_won": 1.5553, "total_long_balls": 1.1155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4942, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7409, 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"stats": { "interceptions": 0.2586, "tackles": 0.4221, "tackles_won": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.7358, "aerial_won": 0.392, "total_shots": 0.1109, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 6.0539, "accurate_pass": 4.1985, "duels_won": 1.5553, "total_long_balls": 1.1155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4942, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7409, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8188, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4576, "crosses_total": 0.4942, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6136, "possession_lost": 4.3495, "dispossessed": 0.4579, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_lost": 1.311, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1815, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.467, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4051, "total_progression": 4.7216, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1109, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.356, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2586, "tackles": 0.4221, "tackles_won": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.7358, "aerial_won": 0.392, "total_shots": 0.1109, "rating": 6.7342, "minutes": 14.84, "total_pass": 6.0539, "accurate_pass": 4.1985, "duels_won": 1.5553, "total_long_balls": 1.1155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4942, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2352, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.7409, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8188, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4576, "crosses_total": 0.4942, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.6136, "possession_lost": 4.3495, "dispossessed": 0.4579, "duels_lost": 1.1922, "aerial_lost": 1.311, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, 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"others_margin": 0.004704 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8425337076187134, "model_output": 0.8425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8282 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1456 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0524 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0293 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.8425, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.914536 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.23337 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.072225 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.070175 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035653 } ], "others_margin": 0.008218 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4069505035877228, "model_output": 0.407, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1884 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.407, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.262325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.188394 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019231 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016414 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011451 } ], "others_margin": 0.001116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.74387788772583, "model_output": 6.7439, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 6.7439, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028434 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.025066 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024029 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.012631 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010659 } ], "others_margin": -0.022565 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.432, "tackles": 0.598, "tackles_won": 0.399, "clearances": 1.8772, "aerial_won": 0.8486, "total_shots": 0.4099, "rating": 6.7439, "minutes": 26.57, "total_pass": 24.0367, "accurate_pass": 18.7727, "duels_won": 2.4059, "total_long_balls": 2.5233, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0659, "total_own_half_passes": 14.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.5513, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2214, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.0144, "possession_lost": 6.2712, "dispossessed": 0.2829, "duels_lost": 0.9572, "aerial_lost": 0.3915, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3061, "challenges_lost": 0.2829, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.239, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"model_output": 6.7222, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0217, "total": 6.7222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02671 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026124 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011246 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.007338 } ], "others_margin": -0.021593 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4555, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0536, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0237, "goal_rate": 0.0237, "shots_on_target": 0.1073, "total_shots": 0.3832, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 27.48, "total_pass": 17.0193, "accurate_pass": 14.1615, "duels_won": 1.3595, "total_long_balls": 1.3394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3485, "total_own_half_passes": 7.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9451, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2165, "crosses_total": 0.7471, "crosses_accurate": 0.1989, "touches": 23.3293, "possession_lost": 4.8259, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 2.1911, "aerial_won": 0.5511, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.594, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.4687, "total_contest": 0.204, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.5954, "fouls_drawn": 0.1358, "blocks": 0.1221, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0707, "total_progression": 3.0784, "progressive_carries": 0.2421, "shots_off_target": 0.2759 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 30000000, "quality_factor": 0.7176, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0023)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4555, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0535, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0236, "goal_rate": 0.0236, "shots_on_target": 0.1071, "total_shots": 0.3837, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 27.48, "total_pass": 17.0193, "accurate_pass": 14.1615, "duels_won": 1.3595, "total_long_balls": 1.3394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3485, "total_own_half_passes": 7.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9451, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2165, "crosses_total": 0.7482, "crosses_accurate": 0.1989, "touches": 23.3293, "possession_lost": 4.8259, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 2.1911, "aerial_won": 0.5511, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.594, "tackles_won": 0.5323, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.4687, "total_contest": 0.204, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.5954, "fouls_drawn": 0.1369, "blocks": 0.1221, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0707, "total_progression": 3.0784, "progressive_carries": 0.2421, "shots_off_target": 0.2759 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0023, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3053, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.5 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assists": 0.0449, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.04, "projection_minutes": 27.48, "minutes_scale": 0.8384, "appearance_probability": 0.715 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assists": 0.0449, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.715 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2262, "fifa_rank": 1124.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0142, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "scorer_weight": 0.0145, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.0074, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "appearance_weight": 0.715, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0142, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "provider_weight": 0.0382, "squad_weight_total": 1.1031, "weight_share": 0.0347, "creation_factor": 1.1112, "appearance_weight": 0.715, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "weight": 0.2061, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2061, "runner_up": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1907 } ] } } ] }, "Vitaly Janelt": { "player_id": 814873, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 184, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0121, "total": 0.101, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.51562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.240166 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.189507 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.06713 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.040048 } ], "others_margin": -0.112668 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2824760973453522, "model_output": 0.2825, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3416 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1744 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0376 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.1051, "total": 0.2825, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.341567 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.174352 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037636 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.033051 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.016224 } ], "others_margin": -0.105159 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.858055591583252, "model_output": 6.8581, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0898 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 6.8581, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.124346 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089803 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.035169 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023376 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013387 } ], "others_margin": -0.023765 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.2462 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.0 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4812, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1104, "total_shots": 0.3083, "rating": 6.8581, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.6315, "accurate_pass": 14.5664, "duels_won": 1.0487, "total_long_balls": 1.4719, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7854, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.067, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4993, "crosses_total": 0.7387, "crosses_accurate": 0.1459, "touches": 20.4432, "possession_lost": 3.0139, "dispossessed": 0.2305, "duels_lost": 1.8, "aerial_won": 0.4191, "aerial_lost": 0.3545, "interceptions": 0.2669, "tackles_won": 0.3947, "tackles": 0.5392, "clearances": 0.4476, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2712, "fouls": 0.8686, "fouls_drawn": 0.0908, "blocks": 0.0904, "big_chances_created": 0.1731, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5268, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 21.01, "minutes_scale": 1.0841, "appearance_probability": 0.323 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4812, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "assists": 0.0525, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1104, "total_shots": 0.3083, "rating": 6.8581, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.6315, "accurate_pass": 14.5664, "duels_won": 1.0487, "total_long_balls": 1.4719, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7854, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.067, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4993, "crosses_total": 0.7387, "crosses_accurate": 0.1459, "touches": 20.4432, "possession_lost": 3.0139, "dispossessed": 0.2305, "duels_lost": 1.8, "aerial_won": 0.4191, "aerial_lost": 0.3545, "interceptions": 0.2669, "tackles_won": 0.3947, "tackles": 0.5392, "clearances": 0.4476, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2712, "fouls": 0.8686, "fouls_drawn": 0.0908, "blocks": 0.0904, "big_chances_created": 0.1731, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5268, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4812, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1104, "total_shots": 0.3083, "rating": 6.8581, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.6315, "accurate_pass": 14.5664, "duels_won": 1.0487, "total_long_balls": 1.4719, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7854, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.067, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4993, "crosses_total": 0.7387, "crosses_accurate": 0.1459, "touches": 20.4432, "possession_lost": 3.0139, "dispossessed": 0.2305, "duels_lost": 1.8, "aerial_won": 0.4191, "aerial_lost": 0.3545, "interceptions": 0.2669, "tackles_won": 0.3947, "tackles": 0.5392, "clearances": 0.4476, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2712, "fouls": 0.8686, "fouls_drawn": 0.0908, "blocks": 0.0904, "big_chances_created": 0.1731, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5268, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1979, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.323, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.323, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4812, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0525, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1104, "total_shots": 0.3083, "rating": 6.8581, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 16.6315, "accurate_pass": 14.5664, "duels_won": 1.0487, "total_long_balls": 1.4719, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7854, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.067, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4993, "crosses_total": 0.7387, "crosses_accurate": 0.1459, "touches": 20.4432, "possession_lost": 3.0139, "dispossessed": 0.2305, "duels_lost": 1.8, "aerial_won": 0.4191, "aerial_lost": 0.3545, "interceptions": 0.2669, "tackles_won": 0.3947, "tackles": 0.5392, "clearances": 0.4476, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2712, "fouls": 0.8686, "fouls_drawn": 0.0908, "blocks": 0.0904, 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1106451, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 177, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 36, 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.1042, "goal_rate": 0.1042, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.7294, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.3843, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 7.5024, "accurate_pass": 5.1332, "duels_won": 2.7046, "total_long_balls": 0.7234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7507, "crosses_total": 1.3575, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 15.4916, "possession_lost": 5.5181, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 2.9215, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.001, "won_contest": 0.9547, "ball_recovery": 1.678, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.6598, "fouls_drawn": 0.5736, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2383, "tackles_won": 0.2198, "tackles": 0.3034, "clearances": 0.8342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2791, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.0777, "total_progression": 28.5626, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "shots_off_target": 0.4775 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.1036, "goal_rate": 0.1036, "shots_on_target": 0.2505, "total_shots": 0.7292, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.3843, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 7.5024, "accurate_pass": 5.1332, "duels_won": 2.7046, "total_long_balls": 0.7234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7507, "crosses_total": 1.3549, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 15.4916, "possession_lost": 5.5181, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 2.9215, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.001, "won_contest": 0.9547, "ball_recovery": 1.678, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.6599, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2395, "tackles_won": 0.2198, "tackles": 0.3034, "clearances": 0.8342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2791, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 5.0777, "total_progression": 28.5626, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "shots_off_target": 0.4775 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.248, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 28.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 28.45, "projection_minutes": 22.32, "minutes_scale": 1.2746, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.552 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1008, "after": 0.0585 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0496, "after": 0.0373 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1644, "fifa_rank": 888.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "scorer_weight": 0.0706, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.036, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0298, "squad_weight_total": 1.1031, "weight_share": 0.0271, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "weight": 0.2061, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2061, "runner_up": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1907 } ] } } ] }, "Reiss Nelson": { "player_id": 826139, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 175, "market_value": 8800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, 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"match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6018, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Reiss Nelson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jobe Bellingham", "ranking": 3546 }, { "player_name": "Omar El Hilali", "ranking": 3547 }, { "player_name": "Matt Turner", "ranking": 3548 }, { "player_name": "Jack Rudoni", "ranking": 3549 }, { "player_name": "Nemanja Matić", "ranking": 3550 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tolu Arokodare", "ranking": 3552 }, { "player_name": "Giovanni Simeone", "ranking": 3553 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Santos", "ranking": 3554 }, { "player_name": "Vitinho", "ranking": 3555 }, { "player_name": "Rolando Mandragora", "ranking": 3556 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ 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"importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.29 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.3164, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.562555 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058482 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.057752 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.047469 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046687 } ], "others_margin": -0.078238 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.601776123046875, "model_output": 6.6018, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0395, "total": 6.6018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05115 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022223 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018959 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014175 } ], "others_margin": -0.039453 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.508)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.064, "goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.2162, "total_shots": 0.5842, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.3165, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 17.18, "total_pass": 8.5294, "accurate_pass": 7.7081, "duels_won": 1.0518, "total_long_balls": 0.4049, "accurate_long_balls": 0.27, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0086, "crosses_total": 0.2417, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5935, "possession_lost": 2.8294, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 1.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.3505, "won_contest": 0.5425, "ball_recovery": 1.349, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1137, "assists": 0.1588, "assist_rate": 0.1588, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3447, "tackles": 0.3956, "clearances": 0.1303, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2123, "xgot": 0.0218, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4504, "total_progression": 9.1035, "progressive_carries": 0.7402, "shots_off_target": 0.368 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8800000, "quality_factor": 0.5083, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.57, "projection_minutes": 17.18, "minutes_scale": 1.4885, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0953, "after": 0.0572 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0235, "after": 0.0183 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3551, "fifa_rank": 2192.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0544, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "scorer_weight": 0.0576, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.0294, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0544, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.018, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.018, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "provider_weight": 0.0229, "squad_weight_total": 1.1031, "weight_share": 0.0207, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "weight": 0.2061, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2061, "runner_up": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1907 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Yehor Yarmoliuk": { "player_id": 1031258, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 180, "market_value": 30000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0142, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363882, "match_date": "2026-10-17 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Liverpool", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Brentford", "opponent": "Liverpool", "stats": { "minutes": 53, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 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"keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0217, "total": 6.7222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.02671 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026124 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011246 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.007338 } ], "others_margin": -0.021593 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.718)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4555, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0536, "assist_rate": 0.0536, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0237, "goal_rate": 0.0237, "shots_on_target": 0.1073, "total_shots": 0.3832, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 27.48, "total_pass": 17.0193, "accurate_pass": 14.1615, "duels_won": 1.3595, "total_long_balls": 1.3394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3485, "total_own_half_passes": 7.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9451, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2165, "crosses_total": 0.7471, "crosses_accurate": 0.1989, "touches": 23.3293, "possession_lost": 4.8259, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 2.1911, "aerial_won": 0.5511, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.594, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.4687, "total_contest": 0.204, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.5954, "fouls_drawn": 0.1358, "blocks": 0.1221, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0707, "total_progression": 3.0784, "progressive_carries": 0.2421, "shots_off_target": 0.2759 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 30000000, "quality_factor": 0.7176, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0023)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4555, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0535, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "goals": 0.0236, "goal_rate": 0.0236, "shots_on_target": 0.1071, "total_shots": 0.3837, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 27.48, "total_pass": 17.0193, "accurate_pass": 14.1615, "duels_won": 1.3595, "total_long_balls": 1.3394, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3485, "total_own_half_passes": 7.2001, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.9451, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2165, "crosses_total": 0.7482, "crosses_accurate": 0.1989, "touches": 23.3293, "possession_lost": 4.8259, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 2.1911, "aerial_won": 0.5511, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.594, "tackles_won": 0.5323, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.4687, "total_contest": 0.204, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.5954, "fouls_drawn": 0.1369, "blocks": 0.1221, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.0707, "total_progression": 3.0784, "progressive_carries": 0.2421, "shots_off_target": 0.2759 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0023, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3053, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.5 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assists": 0.0449, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.04, "projection_minutes": 27.48, "minutes_scale": 0.8384, "appearance_probability": 0.715 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assists": 0.0449, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.715 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2262, "fifa_rank": 1124.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, "total_long_balls": 1.123, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2922, "total_own_half_passes": 6.0368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9845, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2327, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8889, "crosses_total": 0.6273, "crosses_accurate": 0.1668, "touches": 19.5599, "possession_lost": 4.0462, "dispossessed": 0.5655, "duels_lost": 1.8371, "aerial_won": 0.4621, "aerial_lost": 0.1979, "interceptions": 0.498, "tackles_won": 0.4463, "tackles": 0.5638, "clearances": 0.393, "total_contest": 0.171, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.7642, "fouls": 0.4992, "fouls_drawn": 0.1148, "blocks": 0.1024, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9283, "total_progression": 2.581, "progressive_carries": 0.203, "shots_off_target": 0.2313, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.715, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.04, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0142, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "creation_factor": 1.1112, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0142, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "scorer_weight": 0.0145, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.0074, "finishing_factor": 1.0116, "appearance_weight": 0.715, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3819, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "assist_rate": 0.0449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "goal_rate": 0.0198, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "total_shots": 0.3217, "rating": 6.7222, "minutes": 23.04, "total_pass": 14.2695, "accurate_pass": 11.8734, "duels_won": 1.1398, 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0.3164, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.29 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.3164, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.562555 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058482 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.057752 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.047469 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046687 } ], "others_margin": -0.078238 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.601776123046875, "model_output": 6.6018, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0511 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0395, "total": 6.6018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05115 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022223 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018959 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014425 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.014175 } ], "others_margin": -0.039453 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.508)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.064, "goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.2162, "total_shots": 0.5842, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "key_pass": 0.3165, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 17.18, "total_pass": 8.5294, "accurate_pass": 7.7081, "duels_won": 1.0518, "total_long_balls": 0.4049, "accurate_long_balls": 0.27, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0086, "crosses_total": 0.2417, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.5935, "possession_lost": 2.8294, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 1.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.3505, "won_contest": 0.5425, "ball_recovery": 1.349, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1137, "assists": 0.1588, "assist_rate": 0.1588, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3447, "tackles": 0.3956, "clearances": 0.1303, "blocks": 0.0599, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2123, "xgot": 0.0218, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4504, "total_progression": 9.1035, "progressive_carries": 0.7402, "shots_off_target": 0.368 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8800000, "quality_factor": 0.5083, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.57, "projection_minutes": 17.18, "minutes_scale": 1.4885, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goals": 0.0963, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assists": 0.2364, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0953, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0324, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0953, "after": 0.0572 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0235, "after": 0.0183 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3551, "fifa_rank": 2192.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0544, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0544, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "scorer_weight": 0.0576, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.0294, "finishing_factor": 1.0069, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goal_rate": 0.0963, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3218, "total_shots": 0.8696, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "key_pass": 0.4711, "rating": 6.6018, "minutes": 25.57, "total_pass": 12.6961, "accurate_pass": 11.4736, "duels_won": 1.5656, "total_long_balls": 0.6027, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4019, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9439, "crosses_total": 0.3598, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.7456, "possession_lost": 4.2116, "dispossessed": 0.4127, "duels_lost": 2.0111, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0102, "won_contest": 0.8075, "ball_recovery": 2.008, "challenges_lost": 0.1303, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1692, "assist_rate": 0.2364, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5131, "tackles": 0.5889, "clearances": 0.194, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.316, "xgot": 0.0195, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6245, "total_progression": 13.5507, "progressive_carries": 1.1018, "shots_off_target": 0.5478, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.57, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0544, 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"expectedAssists", "margin": 0.120888 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.118781 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.082461 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059379 } ], "others_margin": -0.011219 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3809000253677368, "model_output": 0.3809, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2712 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0328, "total": 0.3809, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.514723 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070397 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054846 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.044088 } ], "others_margin": 0.089861 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6766862869262695, "model_output": 6.6767, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0239, "total": 6.6767, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061524 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012806 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.012523 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011518 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011075 } ], "others_margin": -0.02379 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0090, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.1042, "goal_rate": 0.1042, "shots_on_target": 0.2519, "total_shots": 0.7294, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.3843, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 7.5024, "accurate_pass": 5.1332, "duels_won": 2.7046, "total_long_balls": 0.7234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7507, "crosses_total": 1.3575, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 15.4916, "possession_lost": 5.5181, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 2.9215, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.001, "won_contest": 0.9547, "ball_recovery": 1.678, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.6598, "fouls_drawn": 0.5736, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2383, "tackles_won": 0.2198, "tackles": 0.3034, "clearances": 0.8342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2791, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.0777, "total_progression": 28.5626, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "shots_off_target": 0.4775 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 36000000, "quality_factor": 0.7581, "boost_factor": 1.009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.1036, "goal_rate": 0.1036, "shots_on_target": 0.2505, "total_shots": 0.7292, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "key_pass": 0.3843, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 22.32, "total_pass": 7.5024, "accurate_pass": 5.1332, "duels_won": 2.7046, "total_long_balls": 0.7234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8343, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7507, "crosses_total": 1.3549, "crosses_accurate": 0.3355, "touches": 15.4916, "possession_lost": 5.5181, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 2.9215, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.001, "won_contest": 0.9547, "ball_recovery": 1.678, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.6599, "fouls_drawn": 0.5729, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2395, "tackles_won": 0.2198, "tackles": 0.3034, "clearances": 0.8342, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2791, "big_chances_missed": 0.1853, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 5.0777, "total_progression": 28.5626, "progressive_carries": 0.678, "shots_off_target": 0.4775 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.248, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brentford" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 28.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 28.45, "projection_minutes": 22.32, "minutes_scale": 1.2746, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goals": 0.1321, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0387, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.91 (squad xG sum 1.8156, xG scale 1.0514, xA scale 1.3606, team xA 1.24 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.909, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8156, "squad_xa_sum": 0.912, "team_expected_assists": 1.2409, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0514, "xa_scale": 1.3606, "opponent_lambda": 1.087, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.552 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1008, "after": 0.0585 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0496, "after": 0.0373 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1644, "fifa_rank": 888.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "scorer_weight": 0.0706, "squad_weight_total": 1.9598, "weight_share": 0.036, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kevin Schade", "weight": 0.4861, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4861, "runner_up": "Igor Thiago", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4537 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Igor Thiago", "weight": 0.4537, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4537, "runner_up": "Jaidon Anthony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2706 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.1321, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3193, "total_shots": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0373, "key_pass": 0.4898, "rating": 6.6767, "minutes": 28.45, "total_pass": 9.5629, "accurate_pass": 6.543, "duels_won": 3.4474, "total_long_balls": 0.9221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6419, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.162, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5062, "crosses_total": 1.727, "crosses_accurate": 0.4276, "touches": 19.7462, "possession_lost": 7.0336, "dispossessed": 0.095, "duels_lost": 3.7239, "aerial_lost": 0.8169, "total_contest": 2.5506, "won_contest": 1.2169, "ball_recovery": 2.1388, "challenges_lost": 0.3034, "fouls": 0.8411, "fouls_drawn": 0.7302, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3053, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.3867, "clearances": 1.0633, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3558, "big_chances_missed": 0.2362, "xgot": 0.0225, "offsides": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 6.4722, "total_progression": 36.4071, "progressive_carries": 0.8642, "shots_off_target": 0.6086, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 28.45, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.517, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0555, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "finishing_factor": 1.2076, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0361, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0298, "squad_weight_total": 1.1031, "weight_share": 0.0271, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "weight": 0.2061, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2061, "runner_up": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1907 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.91, "expected_assists": 1.24, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 397, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mohamed Belloumi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.602, "defenders": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.717, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1752, "xg_multiplier": 0.7943, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sepp van den Berg", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belloumi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sepp van den Berg and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.175 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Oliver McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.717, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2239, "xg_multiplier": 0.776, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sepp van den Berg", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oliver McBurnie (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sepp van den Berg and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €30M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sorba Thomas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.717, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1223, "xg_multiplier": 0.8111, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sepp van den Berg", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sorba Thomas (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Sepp van den Berg and Kristoffer Ajer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €30M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Regan Slater", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 9200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.513, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.293, "xg_contribution": 0.0655, "xg_multiplier": 0.7551, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "RB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.707 } ], "duel_analysis": "Regan Slater (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Michael Kayode in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €39M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Giles", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode", "Caoimhin Kelleher" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.743, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.192, "xg_contribution": 0.0025, "xg_multiplier": 0.8416, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "RB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 }, { "player": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "role": "GK", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.808 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Giles (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Michael Kayode and Caoimhin Kelleher in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €34M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.003 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lewie Coyle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Mathias Jensen", "Keane Lewis-Potter" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0262, "xg_multiplier": 0.8578, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mathias Jensen", "role": "LW", "market_value": 8300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Keane Lewis-Potter", "role": "LB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewie Coyle (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Mathias Jensen and Keane Lewis-Potter in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €19M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.86 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.026 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tim Iroegbunam", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.393, "xg_contribution": 0.0745, "xg_multiplier": 0.9169, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikkel Damsgaard", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.607 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tim Iroegbunam (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mikkel Damsgaard in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mathias Jensen", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.502, "defenders": [ "John Egan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.0824, "xg_multiplier": 1.0135, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mathias Jensen (LW) is evenly matched against John Egan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "xg_contribution": 0.5144, "xg_multiplier": 1.2964, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598 }, { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against John Egan and Semi Ajayi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.30 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.514 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kevin Schade", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 52000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.831, "defenders": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.353, "xg_contribution": 0.371, "xg_multiplier": 1.225, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 }, { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.647 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin Schade (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against John Egan and Semi Ajayi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€52M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.22 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.371 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jaidon Anthony", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.236, "xg_contribution": 0.2229, "xg_multiplier": 1.0536, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764 }, { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.764 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaidon Anthony (ST) is evenly matched against John Egan and Semi Ajayi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.223 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.524, "away_midfield_power": 0.678, "home_creative_power": 0.436, "away_creative_power": 0.697, "home_defensive_power": 0.554, "away_defensive_power": 0.944, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.436, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Regan Slater", "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mikkel Damsgaard", "Mathias Jensen", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Tim Iroegbunam vs Mamadou Sangare", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.96, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.022 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.087, "away_lambda": 1.909, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mohamed Belloumi": { "opponents": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oliver McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sorba Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Regan Slater": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Caoimhin Kelleher" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewie Coyle": { "opponents": [ "Mathias Jensen", "Keane Lewis-Potter" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tim Iroegbunam": { "opponents": [ "Mikkel Damsgaard", "Mathias Jensen" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "John Egan": { "opponents": [ "Mathias Jensen", "Igor Thiago", "Kevin Schade", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Semi Ajayi": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Kevin Schade", "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lucas Herrington": { "opponents": [ "Jaidon Anthony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sepp van den Berg": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oliver McBurnie", "Sorba Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oliver McBurnie", "Sorba Thomas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater", "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mathias Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Lewie Coyle", "John Egan", "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Keane Lewis-Potter": { "opponents": [ "Lewie Coyle" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mikkel Damsgaard": { "opponents": [ "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kevin Schade": { "opponents": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jaidon Anthony": { "opponents": [ "John Egan", "Semi Ajayi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "Regan Slater" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Tim Iroegbunam vs Mamadou Sangare). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 1.19. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "ha_source": "default", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.148, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9047, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9805, "home_midfield_factor": 0.96, "away_midfield_factor": 1.022, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5247, "away_avg_quality": 0.7275, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2028, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.1965, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.0481, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.1598, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3819, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.21, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1222, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6901, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8801 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.96, "result": 0.8449 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.8533 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 0.9813 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9377, "result": 0.9202 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 0.8272 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9047, "result": 0.7484 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.148, "result": 0.8964 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8964, "result": 0.8964, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3819, "factor": 0.8778, "pre": 0.8964, "result": 0.7868 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7868 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1633, "result": 0.9503 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.1651 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1651, "result": 1.165, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0077, "pre": 1.165, "result": 1.174, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9718, "pre": 1.174, "result": 1.141 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.141 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9523, "input_total": 2.996, "result": 1.0866 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.0866, "result": 1.087, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.087 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1907, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.2763 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.022, "result": 1.3043 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 1.2913 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2913 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9929, "result": 1.2821 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 1.1889 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9805, "result": 1.1658 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3458 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3458, "result": 1.3458, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3819, "factor": 1.21, "pre": 1.3458, "result": 1.6284 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.6284 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1524, "result": 1.7804 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.8358 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8358, "result": 1.836, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9923, "pre": 1.836, "result": 1.8219, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1005, "pre": 1.8219, "result": 2.005 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.005 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9523, "input_total": 2.996, "result": 1.9094 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.9094, "result": 1.909, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.909 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1633, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1524, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Hull City", "away_squad": "Brentford", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3819, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1005, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9718, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.174, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.8219, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.141, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 2.005, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1651, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.8358, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.087, "final_away_lambda": 1.909 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9377, "attack_index": 0.973, "defense_concede_index": 0.876, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.41, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.27, "team_ppg": 1.32, "opponent_ppg": 1.4 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9929, "attack_index": 1.048, "defense_concede_index": 0.935, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.52, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.36, "team_ppg": 1.4, "opponent_ppg": 1.32 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Hull vs Brentford. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.165, Away 1.836). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.087, Away 1.909 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Hull City", "away_squad": "Brentford", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.087, "away_lambda": 1.909, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.165, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.836 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T13:30:51Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }