{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Getafe", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1547, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1542, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.1303, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3222, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1547 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1542 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1353 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1303 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0791 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1547, "0-1": 0.1303, "0-2": 0.0567, "0-3": 0.0162, "0-4": 0.0035, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1542, "1-1": 0.1353, "1-2": 0.0576, "1-3": 0.0165, "1-4": 0.0035, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0791, "2-1": 0.068, "2-2": 0.0292, "2-3": 0.0084, "2-4": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0268, "3-1": 0.023, "3-2": 0.0099, "3-3": 0.0028, "3-4": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0068, "4-1": 0.0058, "4-2": 0.0025, "4-3": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0014, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3808, "draw": 0.3222, "away_win": 0.297 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2898, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7102, "btts_yes": 0.3695, "btts_no": 0.6305, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4232, "away_clean_sheet": 0.362 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 7.09 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.68, "MCR": 6.75, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 7.1 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Athletic Club vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Athletic Club 2W-6D-2L vs Getafe over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Iñaki Williams (ST) — Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle [0.347 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Peio Canales vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.016, "away_lambda": 0.86, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 6, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "0-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1547, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3808, "draw": 0.3222, "away_win": 0.297 }, "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3808, "fair_spread": 0.156, "fair_total": 1.876, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.016, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 0.86, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2898, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3695, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4232, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.362, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iñaki Williams (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.3422, "probability": 0.2898, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1885, "probability": 0.1718, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.1461, "probability": 0.1359, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramón Terrats (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.1063, "probability": 0.1008, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.876, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 737, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 50.6, "possession_away_pct": 49.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Athletic Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3808, "script": "Athletic Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.16 goals and fair total 1.88.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Athletic Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Athletic Club chance creation leans on Iñaki Williams against Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Nico Williams, Mikel Jauregizar.", "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Mauro Arambarri.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Athletic Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 0.94 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Athletic Club.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Athletic Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Álex Berenguer": { "player_id": 592012, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 175, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goal_rate": 0.1327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1085, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 6.8766, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 59, "possession_lost": 20.0214, "dispossessed": 1.4599, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0189, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1726, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9268, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1127, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1028, "finishing_factor": 1.0678, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 17122851, "match_date": "2026-10-21 18:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Levante", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421074, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1765, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416337, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.017, "expected_assists": 0.1394, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416322, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.234, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.089, "expected_assists": 0.4139, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.028, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.052, "expected_assists": 0.1058, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3488, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 600, "combined_rank_score": 436.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 310.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 563.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8766, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álex Berenguer", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Claudio Sepúlveda", "ranking": 595 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Requena", "ranking": 596 }, { "player_name": "Siavash Haghnazari", "ranking": 597 }, { "player_name": "Andreas Pereira", "ranking": 598 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Zabelin", "ranking": 599 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nonato", "ranking": 601 }, { "player_name": "Charles De Ketelaere", "ranking": 602 }, { "player_name": "Andrej Kramarić", "ranking": 603 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Muñoz", "ranking": 604 }, { "player_name": "Nemanja Ćalasan", "ranking": 605 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.773, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9981, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": 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"contribution": -0.0715 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0232 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.6798, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.238757 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086437 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045756 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.032883 } ], "others_margin": -0.021098 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.77379035949707, "model_output": 6.7738, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0526 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0244, "total": 6.7738, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052609 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03633 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013564 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01192 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011888 } ], "others_margin": -0.024367 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3408, "goals": 0.3882, "goal_rate": 0.3882, "shots_on_target": 0.8869, "total_shots": 2.3579, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.6795, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 70.1, "total_pass": 11.284, "accurate_pass": 6.98, "duels_won": 2.6469, "total_long_balls": 0.2435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0061, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0308, "crosses_total": 1.0874, "crosses_accurate": 0.1955, "touches": 22.1692, "possession_lost": 8.9789, "dispossessed": 0.6396, "duels_lost": 4.5645, "aerial_lost": 1.3873, "total_contest": 1.6904, "won_contest": 0.4858, "ball_recovery": 1.1971, "challenges_lost": 0.4611, "fouls": 0.8753, "fouls_drawn": 0.5681, "assists": 0.3042, "assist_rate": 0.3042, "interceptions": 0.2572, "tackles_won": 0.3776, "tackles": 0.4686, "clearances": 0.4909, "blocks": 0.0979, "big_chances_created": 0.2466, "big_chances_missed": 0.349, "xgot": 0.2547, "offsides": 0.2545, "ball_carries": 6.8695, "total_progression": 24.2147, "progressive_carries": 1.5291, "shots_off_target": 1.471 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7300000, "quality_factor": 0.4903, "boost_factor": 0.9995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0103)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3408, "goals": 0.3842, "goal_rate": 0.3842, "shots_on_target": 0.8938, "total_shots": 2.3496, "expected_assists": 0.063, "key_pass": 0.6795, "rating": 6.7738, "minutes": 70.1, "total_pass": 11.284, "accurate_pass": 6.98, "duels_won": 2.6469, "total_long_balls": 0.2435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0061, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8548, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0308, "crosses_total": 1.0842, 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"model_output": 1.0373, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.134 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.024 } ], "others": -0.0992, "total": 1.0373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133984 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.027187 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.026354 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.023989 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.023989 } ], 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"name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.034151 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.027735 } ], "others_margin": -0.007063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0021, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2711, "expected_assists": 0.1102, "assists": 0.1231, "assist_rate": 0.1231, "expected_goals": 0.0945, "goals": 0.1057, "goal_rate": 0.1057, "shots_on_target": 0.3642, "total_shots": 1.0396, "rating": 6.9217, "minutes": 88.4, "total_pass": 44.37, "accurate_pass": 37.1819, "duels_won": 3.4114, "total_long_balls": 0.894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5652, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6712, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.8048, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5107, "crosses_total": 2.0042, "crosses_accurate": 0.2815, "touches": 58.5561, "possession_lost": 13.5493, "dispossessed": 1.3916, "duels_lost": 6.5278, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 1.5582, "interceptions": 0.7206, "tackles_won": 1.0518, "tackles": 1.0518, "clearances": 0.0, 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0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0082 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0385, "total": 0.1536, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.204356 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.159874 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.084462 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.079025 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.052453 } ], "others_margin": 0.288523 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.6340980529785156, "model_output": 1.6341, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1952 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1144 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0983 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0805 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0811 } ], "others": 0.3841, "total": 1.6341, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.252232 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122815 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094696 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.071353 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.06706 } ], "others_margin": 0.267922 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.051090717315674, "model_output": 7.0511, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0773 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0561 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0159 } ], "others": 0.054, "total": 7.0511, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.077321 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.056086 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.040625 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038883 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.015853 } ], "others_margin": 0.054042 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.209, "goals": 0.2726, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "shots_on_target": 0.6241, "total_shots": 1.7457, "expected_assists": 0.1536, "key_pass": 1.6334, "rating": 7.0511, "minutes": 75.74, "total_pass": 24.1103, "accurate_pass": 19.5855, "duels_won": 2.7904, "total_long_balls": 0.8469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2502, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6005, "crosses_total": 3.1045, "crosses_accurate": 1.1461, "touches": 39.5022, "possession_lost": 10.3472, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 3.6791, "aerial_lost": 1.1865, "total_contest": 2.1455, "won_contest": 1.057, "ball_recovery": 3.1849, "challenges_lost": 0.31, "fouls": 0.438, "fouls_drawn": 0.5787, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.4449, "tackles": 1.052, "clearances": 0.4207, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.12, "big_chances_missed": 0.1355, "xgot": 0.2947, "offsides": 0.0234, "ball_carries": 14.6003, "total_progression": 61.8393, "progressive_carries": 3.1345, "shots_off_target": 1.1216 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.209, "goals": 0.2726, "goal_rate": 0.2726, "shots_on_target": 0.6241, "total_shots": 1.7457, "expected_assists": 0.1536, "key_pass": 1.6334, "rating": 7.0511, "minutes": 75.74, "total_pass": 24.1103, "accurate_pass": 19.5855, "duels_won": 2.7904, "total_long_balls": 0.8469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2502, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6005, "crosses_total": 3.1045, "crosses_accurate": 1.1461, "touches": 39.5022, "possession_lost": 10.3472, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 3.6791, "aerial_lost": 1.1865, "total_contest": 2.1455, "won_contest": 1.057, "ball_recovery": 3.1849, "challenges_lost": 0.31, "fouls": 0.438, "fouls_drawn": 0.5787, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.4449, "tackles": 1.052, "clearances": 0.4207, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.12, "big_chances_missed": 0.1355, "xgot": 0.2947, "offsides": 0.0234, "ball_carries": 14.6003, "total_progression": 61.8393, "progressive_carries": 3.1345, "shots_off_target": 1.1216 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2031, "goals": 0.265, "goal_rate": 0.265, "shots_on_target": 0.6066, "total_shots": 1.6968, "expected_assists": 0.1536, "key_pass": 1.6334, "rating": 7.0511, "minutes": 75.74, "total_pass": 24.1103, "accurate_pass": 19.5855, "duels_won": 2.7904, "total_long_balls": 0.8469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2502, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6005, "crosses_total": 3.1045, "crosses_accurate": 1.1461, "touches": 39.5022, "possession_lost": 10.3472, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 3.6791, "aerial_lost": 1.1865, "total_contest": 2.1455, "won_contest": 1.057, "ball_recovery": 3.1849, "challenges_lost": 0.31, "fouls": 0.438, "fouls_drawn": 0.5787, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.4449, "tackles": 1.052, "clearances": 0.4207, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.12, "big_chances_missed": 0.1317, "xgot": 0.2864, "offsides": 0.0234, "ball_carries": 14.6003, "total_progression": 61.8393, "progressive_carries": 3.1345, "shots_off_target": 1.0902, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.972, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.972, "skill_edge": 0.021, "height_edge": -0.04, "attacker_skill": 0.4927, "defender_skill": 0.4461, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jean Ives Valou", "market_value": 550000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Abdel Abqar", "market_value": 3300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4548 } ], "xg_override": 0.2031 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7457, "after": 1.6968 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1216, "after": 1.0902 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6241, "after": 0.6066 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2947, "after": 0.2864 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2726, "after": 0.265 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.209, "after": 0.2031 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2031, "goal_rate": 0.265, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6066, "total_shots": 1.6968, "expected_assists": 0.1536, "key_pass": 1.6334, "rating": 7.0511, "minutes": 75.74, "total_pass": 24.1103, "accurate_pass": 19.5855, "duels_won": 2.7904, "total_long_balls": 0.8469, 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"crosses_total": 3.1045, "crosses_accurate": 1.1461, "touches": 39.5022, "possession_lost": 10.3472, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 3.6791, "aerial_lost": 1.1865, "total_contest": 2.1455, "won_contest": 1.057, "ball_recovery": 3.1849, "challenges_lost": 0.31, "fouls": 0.438, "fouls_drawn": 0.5787, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.4449, "tackles": 1.052, "clearances": 0.4207, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.12, "big_chances_missed": 0.1317, "xgot": 0.2828, "offsides": 0.0234, "ball_carries": 14.6003, "total_progression": 61.8393, "progressive_carries": 3.1345, "shots_off_target": 1.0902, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.972, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar", "opponent_faced": "Jean Ives Valou, Abdel Abqar", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2446, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0289, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9459, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9875, "xa_scale": 0.8593, "opponent_lambda": 0.86, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1536, "after": 0.132 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.265, "scorer_weight": 0.2497, "squad_weight_total": 1.1264, "weight_share": 0.2216, "finishing_factor": 1.2446, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2006, "goal_rate": 0.265, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6066, "total_shots": 1.6968, "expected_assists": 0.132, "key_pass": 1.6334, "rating": 7.0511, "minutes": 75.74, "total_pass": 24.1103, "accurate_pass": 19.5855, "duels_won": 2.7904, "total_long_balls": 0.8469, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2502, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6005, "crosses_total": 3.1045, "crosses_accurate": 1.1461, "touches": 39.5022, "possession_lost": 10.3472, "dispossessed": 0.6561, "duels_lost": 3.6791, "aerial_lost": 1.1865, "total_contest": 2.1455, "won_contest": 1.057, "ball_recovery": 3.1849, "challenges_lost": 0.31, "fouls": 0.438, "fouls_drawn": 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false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1237, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.1056, "squad_weight_total": 0.7546, "weight_share": 0.1399, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "player_id": 1171619, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 173, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.06, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.465)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.0375, "shots_on_target": 0.1566, "total_shots": 0.4956, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9183, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.6972, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.8922, "tackles_won": 1.6329, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2092, "fouls_drawn": 1.4026, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.339 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5200000, "quality_factor": 0.4646, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0414)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.06, "assist_rate": 0.06, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.4923, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.6972, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2396, "fouls_drawn": 1.4142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.339 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0414, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8832, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9183, "after": 0.9847 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.8922, "after": 1.9357 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 2.2092, "after": 2.2396 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.6329, "after": 1.6523 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.4026, "after": 1.4142 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1566, "after": 0.1673 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.06, "assist_rate": 0.06, "expected_goals": 0.0289, "goals": 0.0359, "goal_rate": 0.0359, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.5063, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.6972, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2396, "fouls_drawn": 1.4142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0094, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.339 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assists": 0.06, "assist_rate": 0.06, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0339, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "shots_on_target": 0.1578, "total_shots": 0.4775, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2396, "fouls_drawn": 1.4142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0089, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.3197, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nemanja Gudelj", "opponent_faced": "Nemanja Gudelj", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nemanja Gudelj", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "skill_edge": 0.0173, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.4759, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "market_value": 1900000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0273 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6972, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5063, "after": 0.4775 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.339, "after": 0.3197 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1673, "after": 0.1578 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0436, "assist_rate": 0.06, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1578, "total_shots": 0.4775, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2396, "fouls_drawn": 1.4142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0089, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.3197, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nemanja Gudelj", "opponent_faced": "Nemanja Gudelj", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0289, xG scale 0.9875, xA scale 0.8593, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.06, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1578, "total_shots": 0.4775, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2396, "fouls_drawn": 1.4142, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0088, "ball_carries": 9.9261, "total_progression": 37.2351, "progressive_carries": 0.4559, "shots_off_target": 0.3197, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nemanja Gudelj", "opponent_faced": "Nemanja Gudelj", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0854, "creation_factor": 1.1752 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0289, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9459, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9875, "xa_scale": 0.8593, "opponent_lambda": 0.86, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0436, "after": 0.0375 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.06, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1578, "total_shots": 0.4775, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.4794, "fouls": 2.2396, "fouls_drawn": 1.4142, "blocks": 0.0, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.06, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1578, "total_shots": 0.4775, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 1.9357, "tackles_won": 1.6523, "tackles": 2.5276, "clearances": 0.6266, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0293, "squad_weight_total": 1.1264, "weight_share": 0.026, "finishing_factor": 1.0854, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5636, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.06, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "goal_rate": 0.0339, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1578, "total_shots": 0.4775, "rating": 6.7928, "minutes": 79.49, "total_pass": 36.0823, "accurate_pass": 30.027, "duels_won": 4.6275, "total_long_balls": 2.2913, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3847, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3237, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.923, "crosses_total": 0.9847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.8804, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1647, "duels_lost": 3.6886, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.2681, "interceptions": 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"contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0255 } ], "others": 0.0281, "total": 0.9983, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113693 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.065463 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.04634 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.031324 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.025892 } ], "others_margin": 0.028462 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.381760835647583, "model_output": 2.3818, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1996 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1295 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0763 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.041 } ], "others": -0.1445, "total": 0.8847, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.15559 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.153408 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119884 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.068833 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039053 } ], "others_margin": -0.151296 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1519091129302979, "model_output": 1.1519, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4569 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1008 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0653 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0272 } ], "others": 0.0679, "total": 1.1519, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.456917 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.100785 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065317 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.041067 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.027211 } ], "others_margin": 0.067807 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.126029968261719, "model_output": 7.126, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0885 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0329 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0679, "total": 7.126, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.135556 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.088546 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033105 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.032922 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.022427 } ], "others_margin": 0.067946 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9049, "tackles": 1.6555, "tackles_won": 0.9959, "clearances": 2.376, "aerial_won": 0.8826, "total_shots": 1.1492, "rating": 7.126, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6029, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9085, "fouls_drawn": 0.4855, "blocks": 0.0539, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1766, "assist_rate": 0.1766, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.1701, "shots_on_target": 0.2262, "big_chances_created": 0.3487, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 17.4985, "total_progression": 78.5548, "progressive_carries": 0.8047, "key_pass": 1.1729, "shots_off_target": 0.923 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 910000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9091, "tackles": 1.6555, "tackles_won": 0.9903, "clearances": 2.376, "aerial_won": 0.8826, "total_shots": 1.1566, "rating": 7.126, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6022, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9127, "fouls_drawn": 0.4827, "blocks": 0.0539, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1756, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.1701, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "big_chances_created": 0.3487, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 17.4985, "total_progression": 78.5548, "progressive_carries": 0.8047, "key_pass": 1.1729, "shots_off_target": 0.923 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9063, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1492, 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"touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9127, "fouls_drawn": 0.4827, "blocks": 0.0539, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1756, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.1701, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "big_chances_created": 0.3487, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 17.4985, "total_progression": 78.5548, "progressive_carries": 0.8047, "key_pass": 1.1729, "shots_off_target": 0.923, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622, "opponent_faced": "Dani Carvajal", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dani Carvajal", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9091, "tackles": 1.6555, "tackles_won": 0.9903, "clearances": 2.376, "aerial_won": 0.8826, "total_shots": 1.1566, "rating": 7.126, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6022, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9127, "fouls_drawn": 0.4827, "blocks": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "expected_assists": 0.1701, "shots_on_target": 0.2249, "big_chances_created": 0.3487, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 17.4985, "total_progression": 78.5548, "progressive_carries": 0.8047, "key_pass": 1.1729, "shots_off_target": 0.923, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622, "opponent_faced": "Dani Carvajal", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0289, xG scale 0.9875, xA scale 0.8593, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9091, "tackles": 1.6555, "tackles_won": 0.9903, "clearances": 2.376, "aerial_won": 0.8826, "total_shots": 1.1566, "rating": 7.126, "minutes": 81.57, "total_pass": 55.231, "accurate_pass": 50.0354, "duels_won": 3.6921, "total_long_balls": 3.2238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6653, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4203, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.3536, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.8107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29.6816, "crosses_total": 2.6022, "crosses_accurate": 0.5626, "touches": 75.642, "possession_lost": 9.8495, "dispossessed": 0.2677, "duels_lost": 2.2999, "aerial_lost": 0.7585, "total_contest": 0.5718, "won_contest": 0.2632, "ball_recovery": 5.3493, "challenges_lost": 0.3631, "fouls": 0.9127, "fouls_drawn": 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"totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0595 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.5551, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059547 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.034216 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.023315 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012479 } ], "others_margin": -0.004169 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.029367446899414, "model_output": 7.0294, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.488)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1453, "tackles": 1.3155, "tackles_won": 0.7853, "clearances": 4.7984, "aerial_won": 1.9986, "total_shots": 0.5546, "rating": 7.0294, "minutes": 88.61, "total_pass": 62.7324, "accurate_pass": 57.0557, "duels_won": 3.5697, "total_long_balls": 7.4034, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 34.392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8725, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3404, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1831, "crosses_total": 0.4022, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 73.852, "possession_lost": 6.5508, "dispossessed": 0.0581, "duels_lost": 2.1035, "aerial_lost": 0.7427, "total_contest": 0.1012, "won_contest": 0.1012, "ball_recovery": 4.167, "challenges_lost": 0.2455, "fouls": 1.0571, "fouls_drawn": 0.3676, "blocks": 0.1566, "goals": 0.2236, 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"importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0624 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.009 } ], "others": -0.011, "total": 0.5338, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062393 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037874 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025254 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.011071 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008954 } ], "others_margin": -0.0109 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.731302738189697, "model_output": 6.7313, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 6.7313, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030669 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.028656 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025741 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.021807 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014163 } ], "others_margin": -0.027707 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9937, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0561, "tackles": 1.0404, "tackles_won": 0.656, "clearances": 4.2096, "aerial_won": 1.3807, "total_shots": 0.5305, "rating": 6.7313, "minutes": 79.45, "total_pass": 52.7695, "accurate_pass": 45.8133, "duels_won": 3.1808, "total_long_balls": 6.874, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7356, "total_own_half_passes": 29.6122, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.8014, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.1574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0119, "crosses_total": 0.6179, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.0582, "possession_lost": 8.4816, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.348, "aerial_lost": 1.5139, "total_contest": 0.6398, "won_contest": 0.4559, "ball_recovery": 3.865, "challenges_lost": 0.4538, "fouls": 0.4325, "fouls_drawn": 0.809, "blocks": 0.3971, "goals": 0.0, 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"name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.117 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": 0.0189, "total": 0.4035, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.116974 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051189 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.028205 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.026977 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025714 } ], "others_margin": 0.018816 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.690749168395996, "model_output": 6.6907, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1346, "tackles": 1.6546, "tackles_won": 1.049, "clearances": 2.2681, "aerial_won": 1.0568, "total_shots": 0.4029, "rating": 6.6907, "minutes": 79.12, "total_pass": 28.5717, "accurate_pass": 22.7337, "duels_won": 3.8937, "total_long_balls": 1.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3517, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2196, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2892, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3521, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4445, "crosses_total": 3.7544, "crosses_accurate": 1.0389, "touches": 51.036, "possession_lost": 12.279, "dispossessed": 0.4165, "duels_lost": 2.7604, "aerial_lost": 0.5986, "total_contest": 0.9275, "won_contest": 0.3357, "ball_recovery": 2.7509, "challenges_lost": 0.3978, "fouls": 0.9363, "fouls_drawn": 0.5308, "blocks": 0.2518, "goals": 0.0, 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 278.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 158.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.091, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Unai Simón", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Mbeumo", "ranking": 318 }, { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 319 }, { "player_name": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "ranking": 320 }, { "player_name": "Mario Rivas", "ranking": 321 }, { "player_name": "Nico Paz", "ranking": 322 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aleksandre Andronikashvili", "ranking": 324 }, { "player_name": "Javier Correa", "ranking": 325 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Santander", "ranking": 326 }, { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9834, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1898, "goals_prevented": 0.0959, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 30.4854, "accurate_pass": 10.8174, "total_long_balls": 26.5518, "accurate_long_balls": 7.8672, "touches": 41.3028, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 6.8838, "high_claims": 0.9834, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.9668, "possession_lost": 20.6514, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9502 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9834, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1543, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.288, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 69.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4921, "goals_prevented": 0.0148, "rating": 7.1385, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.7035, "accurate_pass": 1.669, "total_long_balls": 4.0966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2138, "touches": 6.3724, "clearances": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0621, "high_claims": 0.1517, "aerial_won": 0.0, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.3034, "possession_lost": 3.1862, "duels_won": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 0.7586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.4552, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.288, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5722, "fifa_rank": 6972.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 69.0 } } ] }, "Dani Vivian": { "player_id": 910978, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 183, "market_value": 18200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7125, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, 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}, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0528, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083539, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083242, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0348, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083102, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.164, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 84, "accurate_pass": 77, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14081813, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083657, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083632, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083597, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.0587, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2014, "combined_rank_score": 938.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 766.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6484, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1110.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7125, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dani Vivian", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Egor Khvalko", "ranking": 2009 }, { "player_name": "Vladislav Malkevich", "ranking": 2010 }, { "player_name": "Ayoub El Kaabi", "ranking": 2011 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Tsygankov", "ranking": 2012 }, { "player_name": "Brennan Johnson", "ranking": 2013 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Larrivey", "ranking": 2015 }, { "player_name": "Dominik Livaković", "ranking": 2016 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Nübel", "ranking": 2017 }, { "player_name": "Domingos Duarte", "ranking": 2018 }, { "player_name": "Davide Frattesi", "ranking": 2019 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.267480644499035, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3303400292954107, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0045, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (31 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.33)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4022, "tackles": 0.6549, "tackles_won": 0.4247, "clearances": 1.27, "aerial_won": 0.3829, "total_shots": 0.1468, "rating": 6.7125, "minutes": 30.27, "total_pass": 22.1234, "accurate_pass": 19.0495, "duels_won": 0.6696, "total_long_balls": 3.6356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2313, "total_own_half_passes": 11.5335, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2526, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5899, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7969, "crosses_total": 0.6696, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7502, "possession_lost": 4.9747, "dispossessed": 0.5617, "duels_lost": 1.62, "aerial_lost": 0.7775, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.62, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1856, "total_progression": 38.8873, "progressive_carries": 1.0811, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1468 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-24T10:05:47.447103+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1391, "players": 626, "rows": 21426 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.1 }, { 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"name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0461, "total": 0.1468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.244533 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024427 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012714 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009185 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.008843 } ], "others_margin": -0.046131 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.712530136108398, "model_output": 6.7125, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 53, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic 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7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 160, "combined_rank_score": 140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 59.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 221.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9368, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aymeric Laporte", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Guilherme Arana", "ranking": 155 }, { "player_name": "Will Smallbone", "ranking": 156 }, { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 }, { "player_name": "Temurkhuja Abdukholikov", "ranking": 159 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Castro", "ranking": 161 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Gravenberch", "ranking": 162 }, { "player_name": "Jhon Arias", "ranking": 163 }, { "player_name": "Oleksiy Gutsulyak", "ranking": 164 }, { "player_name": "Igor Vujačić", "ranking": 165 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.351, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9999, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 33.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, 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], "others": -0.0762, "total": 0.5871, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.324299, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.725388 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.036296 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.033015 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.032363 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.027711 } ], "others_margin": -0.122199 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3481654226779938, "model_output": 0.3482, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2138 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.845, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4358 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0428, "total": 0.3482, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.168402, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.725209 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.030472 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.029649 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.024279 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.022375 } ], "others_margin": -0.115637 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8222392797470093, "model_output": 1.8222, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2886 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0929 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.02 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4251, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0299 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1367 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0584 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.043 } ], "others": 0.0523, "total": 1.8222, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.231123, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.898106 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.093474 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.085398 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.034401 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.024576 } ], "others_margin": 0.029199 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7732999920845032, "model_output": 0.7733, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7749 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1233 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0228 } ], "others": -0.0287, "total": 0.7733, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.819625 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.183993 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.030857 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.02949 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.028884 } ], "others_margin": -0.036503 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2249990850687027, "model_output": 0.225, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2362 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 0.225, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.236152 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.029421 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.020314 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017991 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013992 } ], "others_margin": -0.026895 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9367852210998535, "model_output": 6.9368, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0858 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.08 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0301 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0245 } ], "others": 0.0539, "total": 6.9368, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085826 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080048 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.043696 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.030112 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024488 } ], "others_margin": 0.053885 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4145, "tackles": 0.5871, "tackles_won": 0.3481, "clearances": 1.8221, "aerial_won": 0.7732, "total_shots": 0.225, "rating": 6.9368, "minutes": 23.62, "total_pass": 70.5927, "accurate_pass": 65.3242, "duels_won": 3.6669, "total_long_balls": 6.3643, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7266, "total_own_half_passes": 41.5614, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.8929, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.0313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.4313, "crosses_total": 0.2642, "crosses_accurate": 0.065, "touches": 80.6181, "possession_lost": 5.8138, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.7345, "aerial_lost": 1.3126, "total_contest": 0.181, "won_contest": 0.1023, "ball_recovery": 4.6573, "challenges_lost": 0.2874, "fouls": 1.0533, "fouls_drawn": 0.4367, "blocks": 0.2143, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 29.0313, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.4313, "crosses_total": 0.262, "crosses_accurate": 0.065, "touches": 80.6181, "possession_lost": 5.8138, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.7345, "aerial_lost": 1.3126, "total_contest": 0.181, "won_contest": 0.1023, "ball_recovery": 4.6573, "challenges_lost": 0.2874, "fouls": 1.04, "fouls_drawn": 0.4321, "blocks": 0.2143, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0031, "assist_rate": 0.0031, "expected_goals": 0.0589, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "shots_on_target": 0.0612, "big_chances_created": 0.0035, "xgot": 0.0228, "ball_carries": 24.7464, "total_progression": 120.0473, "progressive_carries": 1.0588, "key_pass": 0.3642, "shots_off_target": 0.1629 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0141, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2624, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0533, "after": 1.04 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.6 to 24.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4249, "tackles": 0.606, "tackles_won": 0.359, "clearances": 1.8807, "aerial_won": 0.7981, "total_shots": 0.2322, "rating": 6.9368, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 72.8641, "accurate_pass": 67.4261, "duels_won": 3.7849, "total_long_balls": 6.5691, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8465, "total_own_half_passes": 42.8987, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.1765, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.9654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.2496, "crosses_total": 0.2704, "crosses_accurate": 0.0671, "touches": 83.2121, "possession_lost": 6.0009, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.8225, "aerial_lost": 1.3126, "total_contest": 0.1868, "won_contest": 0.1056, "ball_recovery": 4.8072, "challenges_lost": 0.2874, "fouls": 1.0735, "fouls_drawn": 0.446, "blocks": 0.2212, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0032, "assist_rate": 0.0032, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.0632, "big_chances_created": 0.0036, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 25.5426, "total_progression": 123.91, "progressive_carries": 1.0929, "key_pass": 0.3759, "shots_off_target": 0.1681, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.351, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.38, "projection_minutes": 23.62, "minutes_scale": 1.0322, "appearance_probability": 0.351 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4249, "tackles": 0.606, "tackles_won": 0.359, "clearances": 1.8807, "aerial_won": 0.7981, "total_shots": 0.2322, "rating": 6.9368, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 72.8641, "accurate_pass": 67.4261, "duels_won": 3.7849, "total_long_balls": 6.5691, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8465, "total_own_half_passes": 42.8987, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.1765, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.9654, 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0.4249, "tackles": 0.606, "tackles_won": 0.359, "clearances": 1.8807, "aerial_won": 0.7981, "total_shots": 0.2322, "rating": 6.9368, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 72.8641, "accurate_pass": 67.4261, "duels_won": 3.7849, "total_long_balls": 6.5691, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8465, "total_own_half_passes": 42.8987, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.1765, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.9654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.2496, "crosses_total": 0.2704, "crosses_accurate": 0.0671, "touches": 83.2121, "possession_lost": 6.0009, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.8225, "aerial_lost": 1.3126, "total_contest": 0.1868, "won_contest": 0.1056, "ball_recovery": 4.8072, "challenges_lost": 0.2874, "fouls": 1.0735, "fouls_drawn": 0.446, "blocks": 0.2212, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "shots_on_target": 0.0632, "big_chances_created": 0.0036, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 25.5426, "total_progression": 123.91, "progressive_carries": 1.0929, "key_pass": 0.3759, "shots_off_target": 0.1681, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.351, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.38, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.288, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.351, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4249, "tackles": 0.606, "tackles_won": 0.359, "clearances": 1.8807, "aerial_won": 0.7981, "total_shots": 0.2322, "rating": 6.9368, "minutes": 24.38, "total_pass": 72.8641, "accurate_pass": 67.4261, "duels_won": 3.7849, "total_long_balls": 6.5691, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8465, "total_own_half_passes": 42.8987, "accurate_own_half_passes": 41.1765, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.9654, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.2496, "crosses_total": 0.2704, "crosses_accurate": 0.0671, "touches": 83.2121, "possession_lost": 6.0009, "dispossessed": 0.0026, "duels_lost": 2.8225, "aerial_lost": 1.3126, "total_contest": 0.1868, "won_contest": 0.1056, "ball_recovery": 4.8072, "challenges_lost": 0.2874, "fouls": 1.0735, "fouls_drawn": 0.446, "blocks": 0.2212, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "expected_assists": 0.0204, 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Jauregizar": { "player_id": 1495844, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 177, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0128, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 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16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1908, "expected_assists": 0.0838, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", 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"predicted": 0.3282487690448761, "model_output": 0.3282, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.14 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.1038, "total": 0.3282, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351772 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.13998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030494 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02562 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1649 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0262, "total": 0.2973, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.704626 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.233245 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.16699 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.083258 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036841 } ], "others_margin": 0.091967 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0078980922698975, "model_output": 1.0079, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6634 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5037 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0554 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0456 } ], "others": 0.1598, "total": 1.0079, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.66337 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.503674 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.090131 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055414 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.045618 } ], "others_margin": 0.159797 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.745558261871338, "model_output": 6.7456, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0905 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0075, "total": 6.7456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090472 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025329 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023955 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.013747 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012536 } ], "others_margin": 0.007637 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8109, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assists": 0.1252, "assist_rate": 0.1252, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "goals": 0.1248, "goal_rate": 0.1248, "shots_on_target": 0.2991, "total_shots": 1.0142, "rating": 6.7456, "minutes": 31.81, "total_pass": 11.2079, "accurate_pass": 10.1319, "duels_won": 3.4356, "total_long_balls": 1.1065, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8535, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2939, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9334, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1986, "crosses_total": 1.1619, "crosses_accurate": 0.2977, "touches": 20.2116, "possession_lost": 5.0666, "dispossessed": 0.9315, "duels_lost": 3.5571, "aerial_won": 0.797, "aerial_lost": 0.6359, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.731, "tackles": 1.3235, "clearances": 0.215, 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"ranking": 502 }, { "player_name": "Dong-min Kim", "ranking": 503 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.62, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0123, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Athletic Club", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (31 historical appearances) to 25.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, 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true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 36.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1746, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 18.2453, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 13.342, "accuratePass": 18.001, "totalShots": 2.0547 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09095402806997299, "model_output": 0.091, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2858 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0881 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0231 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1979, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0894 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0048 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0144, "total": 0.091, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.619934, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.600724 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.077847 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.046549 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039836 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.037702 } ], "others_margin": -0.147579 } }, { 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0.032837 } ], "others_margin": -0.053744 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.3019939064979553, "model_output": 0.302, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0661 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0553 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0308 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5362, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2268 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.302, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.623262, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549982 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.082598 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.077842 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.059088 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.045279 } ], "others_margin": -0.033157 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.149108648300171, "model_output": 1.1491, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5385 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1284 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1068 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0451 } ], "others": -0.041, "total": 1.1491, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.53847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.128381 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.106823 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.067638 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.045132 } ], "others_margin": -0.041144 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06677181273698807, "model_output": 0.0668, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0041, "total": 0.0668, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.418486 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.187454 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.087183 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.062495 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053528 } ], "others_margin": 0.063316 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.696144163608551, "model_output": 0.6961, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2575 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0515 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.1106, "total": 0.6961, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475488 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136201 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.100989 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.045453 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.042639 } ], "others_margin": 0.172994 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.861361980438232, "model_output": 6.8614, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0205 } ], "others": 0.108, "total": 6.8614, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085623 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038596 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.029464 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020475 } ], "others_margin": 0.108038 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1353, "goal_rate": 0.1353, "shots_on_target": 0.3057, "total_shots": 1.1632, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1615, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8575 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1343, "goal_rate": 0.1343, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 1.1628, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1404, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2239, "tackles_won": 0.4981, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8575 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3341, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 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"name": "goals", "importance": 0.0577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0307 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0286 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2023, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0764 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.1265, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.597983, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474476 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.116596 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.049999 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.038459 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.035358 } ], "others_margin": -0.002263 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2944687008857727, "model_output": 0.2945, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": 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0.6745699048042297, "model_output": 0.6746, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2864 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0656 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.051 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3807, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5608 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.05 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0213 } ], "others": -0.07, "total": 0.6746, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380749, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.560769 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.049988 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.028683 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.024693 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.021277 } ], "others_margin": -0.070156 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.019855933263897896, "model_output": 0.0199, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1157 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0645 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0558 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0478 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0644, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0087, "total": 0.0199, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.741965, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.389294 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.18093 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.092601 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.078275 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.072189 } ], "others_margin": -0.364 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.27525123953819275, "model_output": 0.2753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1481 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1244 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2516 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0678, "total": 0.2753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.461637 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088083 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.053377 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047198 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034293 } ], "others_margin": -0.220496 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6091179847717285, "model_output": 6.6091, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0535 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": -0.0544, "total": 6.6091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053545 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023001 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.010038 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009662 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008596 } ], "others_margin": -0.054319 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1157, "goals": 0.1263, "goal_rate": 0.1263, "shots_on_target": 0.294, "total_shots": 0.6735, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.2748, "rating": 6.6091, "minutes": 21.44, "total_pass": 4.0173, "accurate_pass": 3.1271, "duels_won": 1.3938, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.299, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0159, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1257, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8492, "possession_lost": 2.3291, "dispossessed": 0.3713, "duels_lost": 3.0105, "aerial_lost": 0.7641, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0432, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 0.9824, "fouls_drawn": 0.2976, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1406, "tackles_won": 0.2288, "tackles": 0.4145, "clearances": 0.4115, "blocks": 0.0973, "big_chances_created": 0.1347, "big_chances_missed": 0.1157, "xgot": 0.0808, "offsides": 0.1425, "ball_carries": 0.9982, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3795 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.9984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1157, "goals": 0.1252, "goal_rate": 0.1252, "shots_on_target": 0.2915, "total_shots": 0.6699, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.2748, "rating": 6.6091, "minutes": 21.44, "total_pass": 4.0173, "accurate_pass": 3.1271, "duels_won": 1.3938, "total_long_balls": 0.4338, "accurate_long_balls": 0.299, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0159, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1257, "crosses_total": 0.0011, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8492, "possession_lost": 2.3291, "dispossessed": 0.3713, "duels_lost": 3.0105, "aerial_lost": 0.7641, "total_contest": 0.3906, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0432, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 0.9785, "fouls_drawn": 0.2985, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.228, "tackles": 0.4145, "clearances": 0.4115, "blocks": 0.0973, "big_chances_created": 0.1347, "big_chances_missed": 0.1157, "xgot": 0.0808, "offsides": 0.1413, "ball_carries": 0.9982, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3795 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2382, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.46)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goals": 0.1502, "goal_rate": 0.1502, "shots_on_target": 0.3497, "total_shots": 0.805, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3297, "rating": 6.6091, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 4.8193, "accurate_pass": 3.7514, "duels_won": 1.672, "total_long_balls": 0.5204, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3587, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.55, "crosses_total": 0.0013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6157, "possession_lost": 2.7941, "dispossessed": 0.3713, "duels_lost": 3.6115, "aerial_lost": 0.7641, "total_contest": 0.4686, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0518, "challenges_lost": 0.5021, "fouls": 1.1738, "fouls_drawn": 0.3581, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1685, "tackles_won": 0.2735, "tackles": 0.4972, "clearances": 0.4936, "blocks": 0.1167, "big_chances_created": 0.1616, "big_chances_missed": 0.1388, "xgot": 0.0969, "offsides": 0.1413, "ball_carries": 1.1975, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4553, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.464, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.72 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.72, "projection_minutes": 21.44, "minutes_scale": 1.1996, "appearance_probability": 0.464 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1388, "goals": 0.1502, "goal_rate": 0.1502, "shots_on_target": 0.3497, "total_shots": 0.805, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "key_pass": 0.3297, "rating": 6.6091, "minutes": 25.72, "total_pass": 4.8193, "accurate_pass": 3.7514, "duels_won": 1.672, "total_long_balls": 0.5204, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3587, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.55, "crosses_total": 0.0013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6157, "possession_lost": 2.7941, "dispossessed": 0.3713, "duels_lost": 3.6115, "aerial_lost": 0.7641, "total_contest": 0.4686, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0518, "challenges_lost": 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"away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0759, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 498, "combined_rank_score": 291.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 351.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.984, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 231.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8614, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico Williams", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Fernandes", "ranking": 493 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Soto", "ranking": 494 }, { "player_name": "Jo Jun-Hyun", "ranking": 495 }, { "player_name": "Nizar El Jmili", "ranking": 496 }, { "player_name": "Marco de las Sias", "ranking": 497 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Ángel López", "ranking": 499 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hye-Seong", "ranking": 500 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Babi", "ranking": 501 }, { "player_name": "Farrukh Sayfiev", "ranking": 502 }, { "player_name": "Dong-min Kim", "ranking": 503 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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"contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0205 } ], "others": 0.108, "total": 6.8614, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085623 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038596 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.029464 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02308 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020475 } ], "others_margin": 0.108038 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1353, "goal_rate": 0.1353, "shots_on_target": 0.3057, "total_shots": 1.1632, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1438, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3449, "fouls_drawn": 0.5931, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2235, "tackles_won": 0.4977, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1615, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8575 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goals": 0.1343, "goal_rate": 0.1343, "shots_on_target": 0.3035, "total_shots": 1.1628, "expected_assists": 0.0676, "key_pass": 0.7047, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 30.07, "total_pass": 12.3901, "accurate_pass": 9.936, "duels_won": 3.4567, "total_long_balls": 0.2158, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.2007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0533, "crosses_total": 2.1404, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 27.3144, "possession_lost": 9.8341, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 5.0086, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 4.3929, "won_contest": 1.5852, "ball_recovery": 1.5814, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.3424, "fouls_drawn": 0.5888, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2239, "tackles_won": 0.4981, "tackles": 0.9428, "clearances": 0.1373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2478, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 8.9453, "total_progression": 50.0263, "progressive_carries": 2.8834, "shots_off_target": 0.8575 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3341, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.1 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.78, "projection_minutes": 30.07, "minutes_scale": 0.8573, "appearance_probability": 0.62 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1623, "ball_carries": 7.6691, "total_progression": 42.8892, "progressive_carries": 2.472, "shots_off_target": 0.7352, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.62, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.079, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.058, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.288, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0289, xG scale 0.9875, xA scale 0.8593, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.016, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0289, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9459, "team_expected_assists": 0.8128, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9875, "xa_scale": 0.8593, "opponent_lambda": 0.86, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.62 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.079, "after": 0.0484 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.058, "after": 0.0309 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2602, "total_shots": 0.9969, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "key_pass": 0.6042, "rating": 6.8614, "minutes": 25.78, "total_pass": 10.6224, "accurate_pass": 8.5185, "duels_won": 2.9635, "total_long_balls": 0.185, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9044, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.3014, "touches": 23.4175, "possession_lost": 8.4311, "dispossessed": 0.9692, "duels_lost": 4.294, "aerial_lost": 0.5282, "total_contest": 3.7662, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.3558, "challenges_lost": 0.3586, "fouls": 0.2936, "fouls_drawn": 0.5048, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.192, "tackles_won": 0.427, "tackles": 0.8083, "clearances": 0.1177, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2124, "xgot": 0.0, 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0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0059 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0022 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 0.0321, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.38392 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.217212 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.163757 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.136009 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056317 } ], "others_margin": -0.171183 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.09383649379014969, "model_output": 0.0938, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1401 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.0938, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561379 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205854 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.169251 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.065309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056164 } ], "others_margin": -0.187472 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3282487690448761, "model_output": 0.3282, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.14 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": -0.1038, "total": 0.3282, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.351772 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.13998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.030494 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02562 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.01705 } ], "others_margin": -0.103732 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727317810058594, "model_output": 6.7273, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0891 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 6.7273, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089124 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024921 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009331 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.007708 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.007256 } ], "others_margin": -0.020321 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0070, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.354, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0324, "shots_on_target": 0.0945, "total_shots": 0.3305, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 28.19, "total_pass": 18.8312, "accurate_pass": 15.615, "duels_won": 2.2374, "total_long_balls": 1.905, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2984, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4671, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.417, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1981, "crosses_total": 0.8541, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.9481, "possession_lost": 5.218, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.4668, "aerial_won": 0.4593, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.7382, "tackles_won": 0.5566, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.4957, "total_contest": 0.3691, "won_contest": 0.2425, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6932, "fouls_drawn": 0.4123, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 5.2441, "total_progression": 9.4465, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.236 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.007, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0051)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.354, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "assists": 0.0398, "assist_rate": 0.0398, "expected_goals": 0.0283, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.094, "total_shots": 0.3288, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 28.19, "total_pass": 18.8312, "accurate_pass": 15.615, "duels_won": 2.2374, "total_long_balls": 1.905, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2984, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4671, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.417, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3641, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.1981, "crosses_total": 0.8498, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.9481, "possession_lost": 5.218, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.4668, "aerial_won": 0.4593, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.7388, "tackles_won": 0.5552, "tackles": 1.1232, "clearances": 0.4957, "total_contest": 0.3691, "won_contest": 0.2425, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6926, "fouls_drawn": 0.4102, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 5.2441, "total_progression": 9.4465, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.236 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0051, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3132, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Athletic Club" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 24.7, "projection_minutes": 28.19, "minutes_scale": 0.8762, "appearance_probability": 0.523 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assists": 0.0349, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goals": 0.0282, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, "rating": 6.7273, "minutes": 24.7, "total_pass": 16.4998, "accurate_pass": 13.6818, "duels_won": 1.9604, "total_long_balls": 1.6692, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1377, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4988, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1832, "crosses_total": 0.7446, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7357, "possession_lost": 4.572, "dispossessed": 0.2532, "duels_lost": 2.1614, "aerial_won": 0.4024, "aerial_lost": 0.2755, "interceptions": 0.6473, "tackles_won": 0.4865, "tackles": 0.9841, "clearances": 0.4343, "total_contest": 0.3234, "won_contest": 0.2125, "challenges_lost": 1.1183, "fouls": 0.6069, "fouls_drawn": 0.3594, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.5949, "total_progression": 8.277, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2068, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.523, "bench_expected_minutes": 24.7, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.288, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.02 (squad xG sum 1.0289, xG scale 0.9875, xA scale 0.8593, team xA 0.81 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3102, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "assist_rate": 0.0349, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0128, "goal_rate": 0.0282, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0824, "total_shots": 0.2892, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0974 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0527 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0513 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0365 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0993, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0103, "total": 0.0886, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.309444, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.130174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.110628 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.082259 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062385 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.043179 } ], "others_margin": -0.110672 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4254149794578552, "model_output": 0.4254, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1106 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0885 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0507 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0124 } ], "others": 0.0217, "total": 0.4254, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144573 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062371 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.054419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046004 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.031123 } ], "others_margin": 0.052335 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.213422417640686, "model_output": 1.2134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1566 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0094, "total": 1.2134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.156626 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.026395 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.024048 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.019435 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.019313 } ], "others_margin": 0.009336 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.734335422515869, "model_output": 6.7343, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0504, "total": 6.7343, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.047767 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.029712 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029112 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.02444 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010828 } ], "others_margin": -0.050393 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7529, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.0724, "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.0886, "goal_rate": 0.0886, "shots_on_target": 0.4258, "total_shots": 1.2144, "rating": 6.7343, "minutes": 76.31, "total_pass": 19.9388, "accurate_pass": 14.657, "duels_won": 4.8543, "total_long_balls": 2.3334, "accurate_long_balls": 1.297, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1253, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5569, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1002, "crosses_total": 0.6206, "crosses_accurate": 0.1722, "touches": 33.5135, "possession_lost": 9.7393, "dispossessed": 1.1646, "duels_lost": 7.9185, "aerial_won": 1.6935, "aerial_lost": 2.4709, "interceptions": 0.4126, "tackles_won": 0.7874, "tackles": 1.4797, "clearances": 1.28, "total_contest": 0.6734, "won_contest": 0.1909, "challenges_lost": 1.7216, "fouls": 2.1302, "fouls_drawn": 1.4903, "blocks": 0.3806, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1342, "xgot": 0.0257, "ball_carries": 6.6716, "total_progression": 25.8066, "progressive_carries": 0.9433, "shots_off_target": 0.7886 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0033)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7529, "expected_assists": 0.0554, "assists": 0.0722, "assist_rate": 0.0722, "expected_goals": 0.1134, "goals": 0.0883, "goal_rate": 0.0883, "shots_on_target": 0.4244, "total_shots": 1.2104, "rating": 6.7343, "minutes": 76.31, "total_pass": 19.9388, "accurate_pass": 14.657, "duels_won": 4.8543, "total_long_balls": 2.3334, "accurate_long_balls": 1.297, 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0395 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0276 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0092 } ], "others": 0.0033, "total": 6.7926, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.039534 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.028315 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027624 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017385 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.009182 } ], "others_margin": 0.003358 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1948, "expected_assists": 0.1222, "assists": 0.1223, "assist_rate": 0.1223, "expected_goals": 0.1751, "goals": 0.1706, "goal_rate": 0.1706, "shots_on_target": 0.5598, "total_shots": 1.6548, "rating": 6.7926, "minutes": 75.01, "total_pass": 18.3953, "accurate_pass": 14.6404, "duels_won": 4.9099, "total_long_balls": 1.5376, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4954, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4705, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.013, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6274, "crosses_total": 1.7465, "crosses_accurate": 0.4566, "touches": 35.0307, "possession_lost": 8.9198, "dispossessed": 1.0993, "duels_lost": 4.0788, "aerial_won": 0.8458, "aerial_lost": 0.6582, "interceptions": 0.6786, "tackles_won": 0.3684, "tackles": 0.9782, "clearances": 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1.7754 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.6548, "after": 1.6724 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.0963, "after": 2.1069 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.6786, "after": 0.6724 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0543, "after": 1.0595 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1948, "expected_assists": 0.1222, "assists": 0.1204, "assist_rate": 0.1204, "expected_goals": 0.1751, "goals": 0.168, "goal_rate": 0.168, "shots_on_target": 0.5598, "total_shots": 1.6724, "rating": 6.7926, "minutes": 75.01, "total_pass": 18.3953, "accurate_pass": 14.6404, "duels_won": 4.9099, "total_long_balls": 1.5376, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4954, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4705, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.013, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6274, "crosses_total": 1.7754, "crosses_accurate": 0.4566, "touches": 35.0307, "possession_lost": 8.9198, "dispossessed": 1.0993, "duels_lost": 4.0788, "aerial_won": 0.8458, "aerial_lost": 0.6582, "interceptions": 0.6724, "tackles_won": 0.367, "tackles": 0.9782, "clearances": 0.8502, "total_contest": 1.8598, "won_contest": 0.9897, "challenges_lost": 0.397, "fouls": 1.0595, "fouls_drawn": 2.1069, "blocks": 0.5063, "big_chances_created": 0.0084, "big_chances_missed": 0.1694, "xgot": 0.1282, "ball_carries": 9.146, "total_progression": 38.2881, "progressive_carries": 1.1244, "shots_off_target": 1.095 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1948, "expected_assists": 0.1222, "assists": 0.1204, "assist_rate": 0.1204, "expected_goals": 0.1776, "goals": 0.1704, "goal_rate": 0.1704, "shots_on_target": 0.5679, "total_shots": 1.6965, "rating": 6.7926, "minutes": 75.01, "total_pass": 18.3953, "accurate_pass": 14.6404, "duels_won": 4.9099, 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"global_player_rank": 467, "fifa_rank": 379.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1948, "expected_assists": 0.1063, "assist_rate": 0.1204, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1497, "goal_rate": 0.1704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5679, "total_shots": 1.6965, "rating": 6.7926, "minutes": 75.01, "total_pass": 18.3953, "accurate_pass": 14.6404, "duels_won": 4.9099, "total_long_balls": 1.5376, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4954, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4705, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.013, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6274, "crosses_total": 1.7754, "crosses_accurate": 0.4566, "touches": 35.0307, "possession_lost": 8.9198, "dispossessed": 1.0993, "duels_lost": 4.0788, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.6582, "interceptions": 0.6724, "tackles_won": 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0315 } ], "others": -0.0897, "total": 0.8598, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131216 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.049815 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.049347 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048007 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.031546 } ], "others_margin": -0.089617 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.709230899810791, "model_output": 6.7092, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.0469, "total": 6.7092, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.044269 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.033419 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032799 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.021187 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010741 } ], "others_margin": -0.046781 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5774, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2067, "total_shots": 0.8579, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 23.9859, "accurate_pass": 18.4772, "duels_won": 2.8904, "total_long_balls": 3.2999, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2104, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6221, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8551, "crosses_total": 0.1712, "crosses_accurate": 0.111, "touches": 34.9292, "possession_lost": 6.5932, "dispossessed": 0.0412, "duels_lost": 3.2974, "aerial_won": 1.4295, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "interceptions": 1.4257, "tackles_won": 0.8501, "tackles": 1.1348, "clearances": 2.7967, "total_contest": 0.276, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.8759, "fouls": 1.7914, "fouls_drawn": 0.1621, "blocks": 1.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 5.5522, "total_progression": 12.1209, "progressive_carries": 0.3429, "shots_off_target": 0.6512 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0009)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5774, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.0586, "shots_on_target": 0.2065, "total_shots": 0.8625, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 23.9859, "accurate_pass": 18.4772, "duels_won": 2.8904, "total_long_balls": 3.2999, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2104, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6221, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8551, "crosses_total": 0.171, "crosses_accurate": 0.111, "touches": 34.9292, "possession_lost": 6.5932, "dispossessed": 0.0412, "duels_lost": 3.2974, "aerial_won": 1.4295, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "interceptions": 1.4244, "tackles_won": 0.8493, "tackles": 1.1348, "clearances": 2.7967, "total_contest": 0.276, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.8759, "fouls": 1.7942, "fouls_drawn": 0.1619, "blocks": 1.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 5.5522, "total_progression": 12.1209, "progressive_carries": 0.3429, "shots_off_target": 0.6512 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9634, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5774, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0688, "goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.0586, "shots_on_target": 0.2065, "total_shots": 0.8625, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 23.9859, "accurate_pass": 18.4772, "duels_won": 2.8904, "total_long_balls": 3.2999, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2104, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6221, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8551, "crosses_total": 0.171, "crosses_accurate": 0.111, "touches": 34.9292, "possession_lost": 6.5932, "dispossessed": 0.0412, "duels_lost": 3.2974, "aerial_won": 1.4295, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "interceptions": 1.4244, "tackles_won": 0.8493, "tackles": 1.1348, "clearances": 2.7967, "total_contest": 0.276, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.8759, "fouls": 1.7942, "fouls_drawn": 0.1619, "blocks": 1.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 5.5522, "total_progression": 12.1209, "progressive_carries": 0.3429, "shots_off_target": 0.6512 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5774, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0473, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goals": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.2182, "total_shots": 0.9116, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 23.9859, "accurate_pass": 18.4772, "duels_won": 2.8904, "total_long_balls": 3.2999, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2104, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6221, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8551, "crosses_total": 0.171, "crosses_accurate": 0.111, "touches": 34.9292, "possession_lost": 6.5932, "dispossessed": 0.0412, "duels_lost": 3.2974, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "interceptions": 1.4244, "tackles_won": 0.8493, "tackles": 1.1348, "clearances": 2.7967, "total_contest": 0.276, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.8759, "fouls": 1.7942, "fouls_drawn": 0.1619, "blocks": 1.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 5.5522, "total_progression": 12.1209, "progressive_carries": 0.3429, "shots_off_target": 0.6883, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0569, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0569, "skill_edge": -0.0173, "height_edge": 0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4759, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "market_value": 5200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4759 } ], "xg_override": 0.0727 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.4295, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8625, "after": 0.9116 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6512, "after": 0.6883 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2065, "after": 0.2182 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5774, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2182, "total_shots": 0.9116, "rating": 6.7092, "minutes": 86.71, "total_pass": 23.9859, "accurate_pass": 18.4772, "duels_won": 2.8904, "total_long_balls": 3.2999, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2104, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6221, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.8551, "crosses_total": 0.171, "crosses_accurate": 0.111, "touches": 34.9292, "possession_lost": 6.5932, "dispossessed": 0.0412, "duels_lost": 3.2974, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.4957, "interceptions": 1.4244, "tackles_won": 0.8493, "tackles": 1.1348, "clearances": 2.7967, "total_contest": 0.276, "won_contest": 0.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.8759, "fouls": 1.7942, "fouls_drawn": 0.1619, "blocks": 1.0736, "big_chances_created": 0.1289, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.012, "ball_carries": 5.5522, "total_progression": 12.1209, "progressive_carries": 0.3429, "shots_off_target": 0.6883, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0569, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 1.0202, xG scale 0.8429, xA scale 0.8707, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5774, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0473, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0619, "goals": 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"opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.6531, "aerialWon": 0.5452, "totalClearance_p90": 2.8639, "totalTackle": 1.1704, "defensive_actions": 1.8411 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.782561182975769, "model_output": 0.7826, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2909 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0294 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8603, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0944 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1614 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1578 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0791 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0335 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3852, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4331 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1023 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0776 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0672 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0415 } ], "others": -0.1543, "total": 0.7138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.325816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.374954 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102061 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.076423 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.071241 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.046681 } ], "others_margin": -0.195735 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5321285128593445, "model_output": 0.5321, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0545 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.5321, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054506 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026267 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022646 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.012069 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.011192 } ], "others_margin": -0.001815 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739101886749268, "model_output": 6.7391, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0451, "total": 6.7391, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02107 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014663 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.012978 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7809, "tackles": 1.6225, "tackles_won": 0.9799, "clearances": 2.5986, "aerial_won": 0.7123, "total_shots": 0.531, "rating": 6.7391, "minutes": 85.36, "total_pass": 28.8473, "accurate_pass": 21.0146, "duels_won": 3.5889, "total_long_balls": 5.8034, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7505, "total_own_half_passes": 10.7208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.2712, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7434, "crosses_total": 7.0273, "crosses_accurate": 1.6163, "touches": 58.0925, "possession_lost": 17.824, "dispossessed": 0.5998, "duels_lost": 2.9671, "aerial_lost": 0.4694, "total_contest": 1.874, "won_contest": 0.6441, "ball_recovery": 3.6956, "challenges_lost": 0.0756, "fouls": 0.5928, "fouls_drawn": 1.2052, "blocks": 0.2566, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1365, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2497, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 47, "history_shrink": 0.0962, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0125)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0125, "history_matches": 47, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Getafe" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 3.1365, "after": 3.1306 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2497, "after": 0.2549 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0156, "shots_faced": 9.6, "expected_saves": 2.34, "high_pressure_saves": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.0156 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0156, "shots_faced": 9.6, "expected_saves": 2.34, "high_pressure_saves": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 1.0202, xG scale 0.8429, xA scale 0.8707, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0156, "shots_faced": 9.7, "expected_saves": 2.38, "high_pressure_saves": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.86, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0202, "squad_xa_sum": 0.642, "team_expected_assists": 0.559, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8429, "xa_scale": 0.8707, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.6, "after": 9.7 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.34, "after": 2.38 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0156, "shots_faced": 9.7, "expected_saves": 2.38, "high_pressure_saves": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 935, "fifa_rank": 750.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0156, "shots_faced": 9.7, "expected_saves": 2.38, "high_pressure_saves": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.8413, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 3.1306, "goals_prevented": -0.0214, "rating": 7.0961, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 29.8769, "accurate_pass": 14.1179, "total_long_balls": 27.3215, "accurate_long_balls": 11.7095, "touches": 37.7682, "clearances": 1.0184, "ball_recovery": 9.9125, "high_claims": 0.5092, "punches": 0.5521, "aerial_won": 0.1407, "sweeper_actions": 0.77, "sweeper_accurate": 0.77, "saves_inside_box": 2.3607, "possession_lost": 15.9406, "duels_won": 0.3775, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2549, "total_own_half_passes": 5.3071, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2618, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0156, "shots_faced": 9.7, "expected_saves": 2.38, "high_pressure_saves": 0.81, "opponent_faced": "Iñaki Williams, Robert Navarro", "matchup_zone": 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"fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jiří Letáček", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mbaye Diagne", "ranking": 5391 }, { "player_name": "Cengiz Ünder", "ranking": 5392 }, { "player_name": "Christopher Opéri", "ranking": 5393 }, { "player_name": "Levent Mercan", "ranking": 5394 }, { "player_name": "Simon Eriksson", "ranking": 5395 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emin Bayram", "ranking": 5397 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Musaba", "ranking": 5398 }, { "player_name": "Archie Brown", "ranking": 5399 }, { "player_name": "Gift Orban", "ranking": 5400 }, { "player_name": "Semih Kılıçsoy", "ranking": 5401 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.10873737216187492, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4374, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Getafe", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€1,900,000) scaled to 4.4 expected mins; FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.44)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9, "goals_prevented": 0.45, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 8.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 1.2, 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"margin": -0.450689 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.156022 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.098711 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051459 } ], "others_margin": -0.300697 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.30182117223739624, "model_output": 0.3018, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0736 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0332 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.0287 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4749, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2171 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0344 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.3018, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47494, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.21712 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034398 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015443 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.010811 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008849 } ], "others_margin": -0.007801 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.692224979400635, "model_output": 6.6922, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0576 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0384 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7904, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0404 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.0346, "total": 6.6922, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.790384, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.040355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023931 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019495 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01394 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013681 } ], "others_margin": -0.034618 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 14, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total": 0.1087, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488685 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.26406 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.14793 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.087522 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.038644 } ], "others_margin": -0.149274 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.32453814148902893, "model_output": 0.3245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3202 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1873 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0829, "total": 0.3245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.320215 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.18725 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.031957 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027107 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.022915 } ], "others_margin": -0.082913 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.671698093414307, "model_output": 6.6717, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0681 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 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0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.326, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1676 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0293 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 0.2047, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.120773, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.721918 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.163792 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.146073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056857 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.043859 } ], "others_margin": -0.066501 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6736473441123962, "model_output": 0.6736, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1261 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1167 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0633 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0419 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9969, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5611 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2122 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0421 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.019 } ], "others": 0.0336, "total": 0.6736, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.996896, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.56114 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.212197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042102 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.031084 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.019007 } ], "others_margin": 0.033683 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.687767505645752, "model_output": 6.6878, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0798 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0236, "total": 6.6878, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079778 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041449 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.017301 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014885 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008711 } ], "others_margin": -0.023582 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 1.0202, xG scale 0.8429, xA scale 0.8707, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0735, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9229, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.86, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0202, "squad_xa_sum": 0.642, "team_expected_assists": 0.559, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8429, "xa_scale": 0.8707, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1017, "after": 0.0437 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0335, "after": 0.0149 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1112 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2564 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0209 } ], "others": -0.0539, "total": 0.2555, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.472943 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.093613 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09026 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.066125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065482 } ], "others_margin": -0.191259 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.619523048400879, "model_output": 6.6195, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0483 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0415 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7683, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0518 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 6.6195, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.768281, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.051768 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020572 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012682 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009446 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009003 } ], "others_margin": -0.045287 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.559)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0829, "goals": 0.0826, "goal_rate": 0.0826, "shots_on_target": 0.2836, "total_shots": 0.6766, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.2564, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 4.3426, "accurate_pass": 2.6859, "duels_won": 1.4354, "total_long_balls": 0.156, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0388, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.005, "crosses_total": 0.338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5566, "possession_lost": 3.7355, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 2.8542, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.4699, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.665, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.3772, "fouls_drawn": 0.6028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.0538, "clearances": 0.3766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0467, "xgot": 0.0128, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 2.0687, "total_progression": 2.009, "progressive_carries": 0.1271, "shots_off_target": 0.3929 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13200000, "quality_factor": 0.5593, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.2 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1239, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.77, "projection_minutes": 15.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.581 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1239, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 1.0202, xG scale 0.8429, xA scale 0.8707, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0094, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9971, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.86, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0202, "squad_xa_sum": 0.642, "team_expected_assists": 0.559, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8429, "xa_scale": 0.8707, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.581 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1244, "after": 0.0609 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0243, "after": 0.0123 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0094, 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"step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, 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0.052 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0395 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2477 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0361 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0493, "total": 0.3033, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.384987, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.452489 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087092 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051393 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034267 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.032057 } ], "others_margin": -0.150656 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.613832950592041, "model_output": 6.6138, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.059 }, { "name": 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recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0037, quality 0.559)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0829, "goals": 0.0826, "goal_rate": 0.0826, "shots_on_target": 0.2836, "total_shots": 0.6766, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "key_pass": 0.2564, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 4.3426, "accurate_pass": 2.6859, "duels_won": 1.4354, "total_long_balls": 0.156, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0388, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.005, "crosses_total": 0.338, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5566, "possession_lost": 3.7355, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 2.8542, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.4699, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.665, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.3772, "fouls_drawn": 0.6028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0538, "tackles": 0.0538, "clearances": 0.3766, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0467, "xgot": 0.0128, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 2.0687, "total_progression": 2.009, "progressive_carries": 0.1271, "shots_off_target": 0.3929 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13200000, "quality_factor": 0.5593, "boost_factor": 1.0037, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.2 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1239, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.77, "projection_minutes": 15.25, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.581 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goals": 0.1239, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1244, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0192, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 1.0202, xG scale 0.8429, xA scale 0.8707, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0094, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9971, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.86, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0202, "squad_xa_sum": 0.642, "team_expected_assists": 0.559, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8429, "xa_scale": 0.8707, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.581 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1244, "after": 0.0609 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0243, "after": 0.0123 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0094, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9971, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3346, "fifa_rank": 2393.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0094, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0578, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9971, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "scorer_weight": 0.0607, "squad_weight_total": 0.8413, "weight_share": 0.0722, "finishing_factor": 0.9971, "appearance_weight": 0.581, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.1239, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.0149, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "key_pass": 0.3846, "rating": 6.6195, "minutes": 25.77, "total_pass": 6.5139, "accurate_pass": 4.0289, "duels_won": 2.1531, "total_long_balls": 0.234, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0582, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0075, "crosses_total": 0.507, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.8349, "possession_lost": 5.6033, "dispossessed": 0.6635, "duels_lost": 4.2813, "aerial_lost": 1.0383, "total_contest": 0.7048, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9975, "challenges_lost": 0.3051, "fouls": 0.5658, "fouls_drawn": 0.9042, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0807, "tackles": 0.0807, "clearances": 0.5649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0701, "xgot": 0.0094, "offsides": 0.1957, "ball_carries": 3.1031, "total_progression": 3.0135, "progressive_carries": 0.1906, "shots_off_target": 0.5894, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.581, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.77, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0578, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "finishing_factor": 0.9971, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0122, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0098, "squad_weight_total": 0.597, "weight_share": 0.0165, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.581, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] }, "Mauro Arambarri": { "player_id": 385888, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 175, "market_value": 8300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0735, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 0.9229, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0581, "expected_assists": 0.097, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Getafe", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083618, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Mallorca", 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"importance": 0.0836 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0491 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0438 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.036 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8561, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0798 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0414 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0236, "total": 6.6878, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856052, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.079778 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.041449 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.017301 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014885 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.008711 } ], "others_margin": -0.023582 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.502)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4249, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "assists": 0.0702, "assist_rate": 0.0702, "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goals": 0.0769, "goal_rate": 0.0769, "shots_on_target": 0.2047, "total_shots": 0.6737, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 23.0066, "accurate_pass": 18.3581, "duels_won": 5.6331, "total_long_balls": 2.509, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6022, "total_own_half_passes": 7.5517, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.7656, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4549, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5924, "crosses_total": 0.8459, "crosses_accurate": 0.0329, "touches": 39.6738, "possession_lost": 10.5796, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 6.1792, "aerial_won": 1.5769, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.4532, "tackles_won": 0.8053, "tackles": 1.4056, "clearances": 0.7308, "total_contest": 2.2927, "won_contest": 0.9029, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.6863, "fouls_drawn": 1.7476, "blocks": 0.1375, "big_chances_created": 0.0029, "big_chances_missed": 0.2521, "xgot": 0.1461, "ball_carries": 9.6817, "total_progression": 17.652, "progressive_carries": 0.7684, "shots_off_target": 0.469 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8300000, "quality_factor": 0.5023, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0821, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goals": 0.09, "goal_rate": 0.09, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.23, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.17, "appearance_probability": 0.51 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0821, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goals": 0.09, "goal_rate": 0.09, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.1709, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.86 (squad xG sum 1.0202, xG scale 0.8429, xA scale 0.8707, team xA 0.56 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0735, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9229, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.86, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0202, "squad_xa_sum": 0.642, "team_expected_assists": 0.559, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8429, "xa_scale": 0.8707, "opponent_lambda": 1.016, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.51 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1017, "after": 0.0437 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0335, "after": 0.0149 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0735, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9229, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1882, "fifa_rank": 788.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0735, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9229, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.09, "scorer_weight": 0.0403, "squad_weight_total": 0.8413, "weight_share": 0.0479, "finishing_factor": 0.9229, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4971, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0437, "goal_rate": 0.09, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2395, "total_shots": 0.7882, "rating": 6.6878, "minutes": 22.23, "total_pass": 26.9166, "accurate_pass": 21.4781, "duels_won": 6.5904, "total_long_balls": 2.9354, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8745, "total_own_half_passes": 8.8351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.9154, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.0815, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5625, "crosses_total": 0.9897, "crosses_accurate": 0.0385, "touches": 46.4164, "possession_lost": 12.3776, "dispossessed": 0.9794, "duels_lost": 7.2294, "aerial_won": 1.8449, "aerial_lost": 1.3765, "interceptions": 0.5302, "tackles_won": 0.9422, "tackles": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.855, "total_contest": 2.6823, "won_contest": 1.0563, "challenges_lost": 0.8443, "fouls": 1.9729, "fouls_drawn": 2.0446, "blocks": 0.1609, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "big_chances_missed": 0.2949, "xgot": 0.0735, "ball_carries": 11.3271, "total_progression": 20.652, "progressive_carries": 0.899, "shots_off_target": 0.5487, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.51, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.23, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.091, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0419, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 0.9229, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0147, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "provider_weight": 0.0186, "squad_weight_total": 0.597, "weight_share": 0.0312, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.51, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.86, "expected_assists": 0.56, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 284, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.76, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Peio Canales", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Dani Carvajal", "Jean Ives Valou" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.31, "xg_contribution": 0.0958, "xg_multiplier": 1.014, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Carvajal", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.69 }, { "player": "Jean Ives Valou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 550000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.69 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peio Canales (LW) is evenly matched against Dani Carvajal and Jean Ives Valou in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Jean Ives Valou", "Abdel Abqar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.212, "xg_contribution": 0.3467, "xg_multiplier": 1.0174, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean Ives Valou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 550000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 }, { "player": "Abdel Abqar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.788 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (ST) is evenly matched against Jean Ives Valou and Abdel Abqar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.347 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Álex Berenguer", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Jean Ives Valou", "Abdel Abqar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1211, "xg_multiplier": 0.9268, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean Ives Valou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 550000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Abdel Abqar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Berenguer (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jean Ives Valou and Abdel Abqar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Robert Navarro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Jean Ives Valou", "Abdel Abqar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.181, "xg_contribution": 0.2031, "xg_multiplier": 0.972, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jean Ives Valou", "role": "CB", "market_value": 550000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 }, { "player": "Abdel Abqar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.819 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robert Navarro (ST) is evenly matched against Jean Ives Valou and Abdel Abqar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.0273, "xg_multiplier": 0.9431, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Gerenabarrena (CDM) is evenly matched against Nemanja Gudelj in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.368, "xg_contribution": 0.0436, "xg_multiplier": 0.9236, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nemanja Gudelj", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.632 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Nemanja Gudelj in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ivan Azón", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Aitor Paredes", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.463, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.194, "xg_contribution": 0.1933, "xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aitor Paredes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.806 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.806 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ivan Azón (ST) is evenly matched against Aitor Paredes and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Aitor Paredes", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.463, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.2237, "xg_multiplier": 1.0495, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aitor Paredes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (ST) is evenly matched against Aitor Paredes and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Johan Mojica", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.0229, "xg_multiplier": 0.9724, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Mojica (LWB) is evenly matched against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.023 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dani Carvajal", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3400000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.442, "defenders": [ "Yuri Berchiche" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0254, "xg_multiplier": 0.9682, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "role": "LB", "market_value": 910000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Carvajal (RWB) is evenly matched against Yuri Berchiche in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.025 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nemanja Gudelj", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0727, "xg_multiplier": 1.0569, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nemanja Gudelj (CDM) is evenly matched against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.497, "xg_contribution": 0.1212, "xg_multiplier": 1.0688, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.503 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is slightly favored against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.1776, "xg_multiplier": 1.0144, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (CM) is evenly matched against Beñat Gerenabarrena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.178 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.474, "away_midfield_power": 0.469, "home_creative_power": 0.472, "away_creative_power": 0.443, "home_defensive_power": 0.488, "away_defensive_power": 0.411, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.502, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Peio Canales", "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mario Martín", "Ramón Terrats", "Nemanja Gudelj" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Peio Canales vs Mario Martín", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.005, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.016, "away_lambda": 0.86, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Peio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Dani Carvajal", "Jean Ives Valou", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "Jean Ives Valou", "Abdel Abqar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álex Berenguer": { "opponents": [ "Jean Ives Valou", "Abdel Abqar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Robert Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Jean Ives Valou", "Abdel Abqar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Beñat Gerenabarrena": { "opponents": [ "Nemanja Gudelj", "Mario Martín", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "opponents": [ "Nemanja Gudelj", "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aitor Paredes": { "opponents": [ "Ivan Azón", "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yeray Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Ivan Azón", "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Dani Carvajal" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Ivan Azón" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Dani Carvajal": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales", "Yuri Berchiche" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Jean Ives Valou": { "opponents": [ "Peio Canales", "Iñaki Williams", "Álex Berenguer", "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdel Abqar": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams", "Álex Berenguer", "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nemanja Gudelj": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ivan Azón": { "opponents": [ "Aitor Paredes", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Aitor Paredes", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Gerenabarrena", "Peio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Kiko Femenía": { "opponents": [ "Álex Berenguer" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Peio Canales vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.84, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "ha_source": "default", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.042, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.093, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0007, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0035, "home_midfield_factor": 1.005, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4686, "away_avg_quality": 0.4628, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0058, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.1195, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0302, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0334, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0146, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8376, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9657 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.005, "result": 0.9705 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9705 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.1161 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9184, "result": 1.025 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.036 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0007, "result": 1.0367 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.042, "result": 1.0787 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0787, "result": 1.0787, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0146, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0787, "result": 1.0787 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0787 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1644, "result": 1.2434 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2444, "result": 1.0156 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0156, "result": 1.016, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.016, "result": 1.016, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.016 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.016 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.016, "result": 1.016, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.016 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8368, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9651 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.996, "result": 0.9612 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9612 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9612 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8243, "result": 0.7923 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 0.7347 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0035, "result": 0.7373 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.093, "result": 0.8303 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8303, "result": 0.8303, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0146, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.8303, "result": 0.8303 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.8303 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2106, "result": 1.0406 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2469, "result": 0.8596 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.8596, "result": 0.86, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 0.86, "result": 0.86, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 0.86 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 0.86 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 0.86, "result": 0.86, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 0.86 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1644, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.244, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.016, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.86, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0156, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8596, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.016, "final_away_lambda": 0.86 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9184, "attack_index": 0.92, "defense_concede_index": 0.871, "form_multiplier": 1.01, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.41, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.34, "team_ppg": 1.32, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8243, "attack_index": 0.694, "defense_concede_index": 0.884, "form_multiplier": 0.99, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.06, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.36, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 1.32 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Athletic Club vs Getafe. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 5-3-2 (duel lambdas: Home 1.016, Away 0.860). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.016, Away 0.860 (most likely score 0-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Athletic Club", "away_squad": "Getafe", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.244, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.016, "away_lambda": 0.86, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.016, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.86 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T05:29:27Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }