{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1207, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0811, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.089, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2555, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1207 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.089 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0869 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0811 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0793 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0631, "0-1": 0.089, "0-2": 0.0655, "0-3": 0.0318, "0-4": 0.0115, "0-5": 0.0034, "0-6": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0811, "1-1": 0.1207, "1-2": 0.0869, "1-3": 0.0421, "1-4": 0.0153, "1-5": 0.0045, "1-6": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0546, "2-1": 0.0793, "2-2": 0.0577, "2-3": 0.028, "2-4": 0.0102, "2-5": 0.003, "2-6": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0241, "3-1": 0.0351, "3-2": 0.0255, "3-3": 0.0124, "3-4": 0.0045, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.008, "4-1": 0.0116, "4-2": 0.0085, "4-3": 0.0041, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0021, "5-1": 0.0031, "5-2": 0.0022, "5-3": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3434, "draw": 0.2555, "away_win": 0.4011 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5642, "btts_no": 0.4358, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2336, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2653 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.73, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 7.0, "GK": 6.98 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.84, "GK": 6.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sunderland vs Leeds. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Sunderland 3W-4D-3L vs Leeds over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Brian Brobbey, Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.327, "away_lambda": 1.454, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 3, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1207, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3434, "draw": 0.2555, "away_win": 0.4011 }, "favorite": "Leeds", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4011, "fair_spread": -0.127, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.327, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.454, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5642, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2336, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2653, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.4291, "probability": 0.3489, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.4411, "probability": 0.3567, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Granit Xhaka (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.1766, "probability": 0.1619, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Nico Elvedi (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.1884, "probability": 0.1717, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 790, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.6, "possession_home_pct": 50.2, "possession_away_pct": 49.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Leeds", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4011, "script": "Leeds is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.13 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sunderland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Leeds lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Sunderland chance creation leans on Brian Brobbey against Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Brian Brobbey; bench watchlist: Malick Fofana, Chris Rigg, Chemsdine Talbi.", "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Calvert-Lewin; bench watchlist: Noah Okafor, Harry Wilson, Sean Longstaff.", "Assist usage should flow through Enzo Le Fée, Nico Elvedi; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Leeds tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sunderland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Leeds.", "Sunderland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sunderland": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Luke O'Nien": { "player_id": 365812, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 174, "market_value": 660000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0199, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0113, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "expected_assists": 0.0115, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.046, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "expected_assists": 0.084, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15129444, "match_date": "2026-02-02", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4049, "combined_rank_score": 2034.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 805.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6167, "sofascore_appearances": 12.0, "fifa_rank": 3263.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7478, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luke O'Nien", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Lainez", "ranking": 4044 }, { "player_name": "John Yeboah", "ranking": 4045 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Gorriarán", "ranking": 4046 }, { "player_name": "Anis Mehmeti", "ranking": 4047 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Vite", "ranking": 4048 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luís Esteves", "ranking": 4050 }, { "player_name": "Alexandre Lacazette", "ranking": 4051 }, { "player_name": "Abderrazak Hamdallah", "ranking": 4052 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Podence", "ranking": 4053 }, { "player_name": "Haissem Hassan", "ranking": 4054 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 13, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 13, "data_confidence": 0.757, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9944, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 66.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.36, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0467 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 13 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.05, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8292, "tackles": 1.2441, "tackles_won": 0.7741, "clearances": 4.138, "aerial_won": 1.1551, "total_shots": 0.5564, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.2582, "accurate_pass": 35.4908, "duels_won": 2.6379, "total_long_balls": 6.7248, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0823, "total_own_half_passes": 21.7622, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.82, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.496, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6708, "crosses_total": 1.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.469, "possession_lost": 11.0492, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8412, "aerial_lost": 1.3149, "total_contest": 0.3887, "won_contest": 0.3887, "ball_recovery": 2.2914, "challenges_lost": 0.6074, "fouls": 0.9189, "fouls_drawn": 0.6874, "blocks": 0.3665, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2047, "assist_rate": 0.2047, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "shots_on_target": 0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 14.0534, "total_progression": 52.0908, "progressive_carries": 0.7914, "key_pass": 0.4094, "shots_off_target": 0.3517 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1706, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.145, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1233, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1048, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0891, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0757, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0644, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0547, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-02", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0465, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0395, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 13.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.5502, "aerialWon": 0.8536, "totalClearance_p90": 4.9425, "totalTackle": 0.647, "totalPass": 31.6105 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.8292414546012878, "model_output": 0.8292, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1135 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.1061 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0108, "total": 0.8292, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124359 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.115705 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.024351 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.018925 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.01184 } ], "others_margin": 0.013218 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2440627813339233, "model_output": 1.2441, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.179 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1069 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0955 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0476 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0386 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 1.2441, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120827 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.070391 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.067354 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035368 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.029629 } ], "others_margin": -0.031791 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7741262912750244, "model_output": 0.7741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0997 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0739 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": 0.0028, "total": 0.7741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110355 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.080644 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.055526 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.050605 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.025976 } ], "others_margin": 0.003789 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.137950420379639, "model_output": 4.138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4775 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1662 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1623 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1363 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0919 } ], "others": -0.0152, "total": 4.138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129588 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.043228 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042225 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.034145 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.022365 } ], "others_margin": -0.003677 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1550796031951904, "model_output": 1.1551, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.294 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.154 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0303 } ], "others": -0.0438, "total": 1.1551, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.239156 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132408 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.039734 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.029376 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.024958 } ], "others_margin": -0.03732 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5563735365867615, "model_output": 0.5564, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0655 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 0.5564, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065461 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.039034 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02908 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029035 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.009655 } ], "others_margin": -0.028954 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747798442840576, "model_output": 6.7478, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 6.7478, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.02233 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019934 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014081 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011411 } ], "others_margin": -0.002516 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 13, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9944, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8246, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7698, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5533, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.2324, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9138, "fouls_drawn": 0.6836, "blocks": 0.3644, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2036, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 660000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9944, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 13, "history_shrink": 0.2778, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0084)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2019, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0084, "history_matches": 13, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9539, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9138, "after": 0.9291 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.2324, "after": 1.245 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8246, "after": 0.8176 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7698, "after": 0.7633 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5533, "after": 0.5596 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6836, "after": 0.6778 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2019, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2019, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0226, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4049, "fifa_rank": 3263.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.018, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0131, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8176, "tackles": 1.2371, "tackles_won": 0.7633, "clearances": 4.1148, "aerial_won": 1.1486, "total_shots": 0.5596, "rating": 6.7478, "minutes": 85.85, "total_pass": 41.0272, "accurate_pass": 35.2921, "duels_won": 2.6231, "total_long_balls": 6.6871, "accurate_long_balls": 3.065, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6403, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7034, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5886, "crosses_total": 1.245, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.1528, "possession_lost": 10.9873, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.8253, "aerial_lost": 1.3075, "total_contest": 0.3865, "won_contest": 0.3865, "ball_recovery": 2.2786, "challenges_lost": 0.604, "fouls": 0.9291, "fouls_drawn": 0.6778, "blocks": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "shots_on_target": 0.2019, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0134, "ball_carries": 13.9747, "total_progression": 51.7991, "progressive_carries": 0.787, "key_pass": 0.4071, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467, "opponent_faced": "Jayden Bogle", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0222, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0199, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0199, "assist_rate": 0.2019, "provider_weight": 0.0251, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0317, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "player_id": 780014, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 185, "market_value": 17100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1366, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1442, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1277, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0891, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0636, "expected_assists": 0.044, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "expected_assists": 0.2268, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7035, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0114, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 14, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0981, "expected_assists": 0.3621, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 58, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1875, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 425, "combined_rank_score": 261.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 21.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 501.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8319, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Sandro", "ranking": 420 }, { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 }, { "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking": 423 }, { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhimkhalil Yuldoshev", "ranking": 429 }, { "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking": 430 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "minutes": 90.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.07, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1902, "tackles": 1.9798, "tackles_won": 1.2357, "clearances": 3.8396, "aerial_won": 1.638, "total_shots": 1.0796, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.685, "accurate_pass": 28.9434, "duels_won": 5.5763, "total_long_balls": 3.468, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5253, "total_own_half_passes": 16.3881, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6505, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.293, "crosses_total": 3.2052, "crosses_accurate": 0.8773, "touches": 62.531, "possession_lost": 14.1082, "dispossessed": 0.4398, "duels_lost": 4.9177, "aerial_lost": 2.3637, "total_contest": 0.9299, "won_contest": 0.5724, "ball_recovery": 4.1227, "challenges_lost": 0.5933, "fouls": 1.2912, "fouls_drawn": 0.7011, "blocks": 0.5921, "goals": 0.0852, "goal_rate": 0.0852, "assists": 0.0416, "assist_rate": 0.0416, "expected_goals": 0.1367, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "shots_on_target": 0.2127, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "xgot": 0.1443, "ball_carries": 14.6636, "total_progression": 60.5586, "progressive_carries": 1.1701, "key_pass": 0.6869, "shots_off_target": 0.8669 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.6439, "aerialWon": 1.9299, "totalClearance_p90": 4.6501, "totalTackle": 2.444, "totalPass": 36.685 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1902379989624023, "model_output": 1.1902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1183 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0725 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": 0.075, "total": 1.1902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129269 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.071661 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.027957 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.023204 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010935 } ], "others_margin": 0.065127 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.9798352718353271, "model_output": 1.9798, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1741 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0887 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0804 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0831 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0498 } ], "others": 0.1098, "total": 1.9798, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117692 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.055017 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.047379 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.046721 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.02697 } ], "others_margin": 0.057146 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.2357163429260254, "model_output": 1.2357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1045 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0804 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0414 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0319 } ], "others": 0.0378, "total": 1.2357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115387 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.085254 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.074199 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.036156 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026994 } ], "others_margin": 0.031074 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.83961820602417, "model_output": 3.8396, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.4089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4011 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3435 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1871 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1254 } ], "others": -0.26, "total": 3.8396, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.126104 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12384 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.095077 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.048218 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.031068 } ], "others_margin": -0.065509 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.6380000114440918, "model_output": 1.638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2335 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1811 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1235 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1223 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0631 } ], "others": -0.3413, "total": 1.638, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.156089 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106249 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.066456 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.061774 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.031385 } ], "others_margin": -0.18926 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0795705318450928, "model_output": 1.0796, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4031 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0274 } ], "others": 0.0905, "total": 1.0796, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.403113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.080214 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034942 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.027581 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.027396 } ], "others_margin": 0.090355 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.831879615783691, "model_output": 6.8319, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": 0.0015, "total": 6.8319, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037819 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019039 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01324 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012893 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011242 } ], "others_margin": 0.001478 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.602)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1944, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.24, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0834, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2164, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2957, "fouls_drawn": 0.7036, "blocks": 0.5942, "goals": 0.0855, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "assists": 0.0417, "assist_rate": 0.0417, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2134, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17100000, "quality_factor": 0.6016, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0777, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goals": 0.085, "goal_rate": 0.085, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0053, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9759, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.2164, "after": 3.2046 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2957, "after": 1.2888 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.24, "after": 1.2334 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0834, "after": 1.0777 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0822, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goals": 0.085, "goal_rate": 0.085, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0822, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goals": 0.085, "goal_rate": 0.085, "assists": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0822, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1372, "expected_assists": 0.0937, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1448, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0822, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1366, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1442, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0822, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1366, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1442, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 425, "fifa_rank": 501.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0822, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1366, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1442, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1277, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1277, "goal_rate": 0.085, "scorer_weight": 0.1093, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0797, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1932, "tackles": 1.9868, "tackles_won": 1.2334, "clearances": 3.8531, "aerial_won": 1.6437, "total_shots": 1.0822, "rating": 6.8319, "minutes": 87.83, "total_pass": 36.8134, "accurate_pass": 29.0447, "duels_won": 5.5958, "total_long_balls": 3.4801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 16.4455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7018, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.368, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.343, "crosses_total": 3.2046, "crosses_accurate": 0.8804, "touches": 62.7499, "possession_lost": 14.1576, "dispossessed": 0.4413, "duels_lost": 4.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.372, "total_contest": 0.9332, "won_contest": 0.5744, "ball_recovery": 4.1371, "challenges_lost": 0.5954, "fouls": 1.2888, "fouls_drawn": 0.6999, "blocks": 0.5942, "goal_rate": 0.085, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1366, "expected_assists": 0.0933, "shots_on_target": 0.2123, "big_chances_created": 0.2366, "xgot": 0.1442, "ball_carries": 14.7149, "total_progression": 60.7706, "progressive_carries": 1.1742, "key_pass": 0.6893, "shots_off_target": 0.8699, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1277, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0891, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0891, "assist_rate": 0.0415, "provider_weight": 0.0746, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0942, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Robin Roefs": { "player_id": 1012928, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 46, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1657, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.8862 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6121 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -2.774 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0857 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0749 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 35, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.3712 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.5938 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0063 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0855 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1022, "combined_rank_score": 454.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 382.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.96, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 527.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.978, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Robin Roefs", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Min-hyeok Kim", "ranking": 1017 }, { "player_name": "Tim Hartzell", "ranking": 1018 }, { "player_name": "Dae-kwang Lee", "ranking": 1019 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Iljutcenko", "ranking": 1020 }, { "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking": 1021 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrea Cambiaso", "ranking": 1023 }, { "player_name": "Clarismario", "ranking": 1024 }, { "player_name": "Milan Obradović", "ranking": 1025 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Carreras", "ranking": 1026 }, { "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking": 1027 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0073, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9181, "goals_prevented": 0.0979, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.3735, "accurate_pass": 23.9065, "total_long_balls": 19.491, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1473, "touches": 45.2801, "clearances": 1.2524, "ball_recovery": 7.2839, "high_claims": 0.9339, "punches": 1.3851, "aerial_won": 0.4129, "sweeper_actions": 0.5167, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5167, "saves_inside_box": 1.6086, "possession_lost": 12.7125, "duels_won": 0.9685, "duels_lost": 0.0072, "total_contest": 0.0939, "won_contest": 0.0939, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5536, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1101 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:04:36.867499+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.342, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9307, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.3369, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0742, "save_contribution": 1.3956, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.5167 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.918079137802124, "model_output": 2.9181, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0013, "total": 2.9181, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019895 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014218 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009905 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.004423 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.003333 } ], "others_margin": -0.000475 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.09794417768716812, "model_output": 0.0979, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1064 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0233 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0753, "total": 0.0979, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.106448 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.054663 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.028972 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.023262 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.018183 } ], "others_margin": 0.075245 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.97802734375, "model_output": 6.978, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0688, "total": 6.978, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.048314 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.02042 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.019823 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.015004 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.014584 } ], "others_margin": -0.068754 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9394, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5576, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0073, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9394, "after": 2.9159 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1657, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1657 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1657, "shots_faced": 11.1, "expected_saves": 2.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.93, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1657, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.1, "after": 13.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.72, "after": 3.38 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.93, "after": 1.16 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1657, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1022, "fifa_rank": 527.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1657, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9159, "goals_prevented": 0.0987, "rating": 6.978, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.639, "accurate_pass": 24.081, "total_long_balls": 19.6333, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1995, "touches": 45.6106, "clearances": 1.2615, "ball_recovery": 7.3371, "high_claims": 0.9407, "punches": 1.3952, "aerial_won": 0.4159, "sweeper_actions": 0.5205, "sweeper_accurate": 0.5205, "saves_inside_box": 1.6203, "possession_lost": 12.8053, "duels_won": 0.9756, "duels_lost": 0.0073, "total_contest": 0.0946, "won_contest": 0.0946, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.557, "total_own_half_passes": 20.5206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.2496, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1657, "shots_faced": 13.8, "expected_saves": 3.38, "high_pressure_saves": 1.16, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Jayden Bogle", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Omar Alderete": { "player_id": 805137, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 187, "market_value": 10600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0332, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 67, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0355, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 34, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2296, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 26, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1395, "expected_assists": 0.0285, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1212, "combined_rank_score": 530.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 552.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8182, "sofascore_appearances": 33.0, "fifa_rank": 509.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7536, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Omar Alderete", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Miguel", "ranking": 1207 }, { "player_name": "Žan Karničnik", "ranking": 1208 }, { "player_name": "Abdiel Ayarza", "ranking": 1209 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Șut", "ranking": 1210 }, { "player_name": "Christian Nørgaard", "ranking": 1211 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daichi Kamada", "ranking": 1213 }, { "player_name": "Marc-André Ter Stegen", "ranking": 1214 }, { "player_name": "Estéban Lepaul", "ranking": 1215 }, { "player_name": "Asilbek Jumaev", "ranking": 1216 }, { "player_name": "Ikboldzhon Malikdzhonov", "ranking": 1217 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0009, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 24.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.948, "tackles": 1.1412, "tackles_won": 0.6177, "clearances": 5.2384, "aerial_won": 2.8023, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.5946, "accurate_pass": 27.5488, "duels_won": 4.4328, "total_long_balls": 4.6988, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8546, "total_own_half_passes": 21.425, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0821, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1697, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4668, "crosses_total": 0.2395, "crosses_accurate": 0.0797, "touches": 48.7081, "possession_lost": 9.5223, "dispossessed": 0.1133, "duels_lost": 3.6734, "aerial_lost": 2.0941, "total_contest": 0.3805, "won_contest": 0.3368, "ball_recovery": 2.8143, "challenges_lost": 0.1229, "fouls": 1.2994, "fouls_drawn": 0.3906, "blocks": 0.7072, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2117, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6692, "total_progression": 66.4565, "progressive_carries": 0.8387, "key_pass": 0.1686, "shots_off_target": 0.2599 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 23.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 5.0207, "aerialWon": 2.5711, "totalClearance_p90": 5.5359, "totalTackle": 0.7516, "totalPass": 35.7917 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.948043704032898, "model_output": 0.948, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1121 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.948, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122908 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.032605 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.022299 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": -0.021204 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018792 } ], "others_margin": -0.009545 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.141225814819336, "model_output": 1.1412, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1649 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1434 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0667 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0461 } ], "others": -0.09, "total": 1.1412, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111814 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.096473 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.051784 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.050924 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.036768 } ], "others_margin": -0.075851 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.6176742911338806, "model_output": 0.6177, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.09 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0831 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0443 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0357 } ], "others": -0.0924, "total": 0.6177, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.111364 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103249 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.070095 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.057637 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.049055 } ], "others_margin": -0.139479 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 5.238381862640381, "model_output": 5.2384, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.5313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5222 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2329 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2063 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1462 } ], "others": 0.1481, "total": 5.2384, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.143179 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123194 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050415 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.042612 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.029136 } ], "others_margin": 0.028693 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 2.8022801876068115, "model_output": 2.8023, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.5518 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2206 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1843 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1775 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1164 } ], "others": 0.1697, "total": 2.8023, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.335925 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.108049 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.082067 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.073172 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.045237 } ], "others_margin": 0.062431 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.47160834074020386, "model_output": 0.4716, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0239, "total": 0.4716, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057901 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.050354 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.014265 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013374 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010845 } ], "others_margin": -0.023864 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7535834312438965, "model_output": 6.7536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 6.7536, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028339 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013684 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.011311 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010925 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010605 } ], "others_margin": -0.006674 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.529)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6182, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.472, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2397, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.3006, "fouls_drawn": 0.391, "blocks": 0.7078, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2119, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10600000, "quality_factor": 0.5295, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4712, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8679, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0363, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0333, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0332, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0332, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1212, "fifa_rank": 509.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0332, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0355, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0355, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "scorer_weight": 0.0289, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0211, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9473, "tackles": 1.1423, "tackles_won": 0.6172, "clearances": 5.2431, "aerial_won": 2.8048, "total_shots": 0.4716, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 78.11, "total_pass": 35.6266, "accurate_pass": 27.5736, "duels_won": 4.4368, "total_long_balls": 4.703, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 21.4443, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.0993, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1825, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4744, "crosses_total": 0.2393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 48.7519, "possession_lost": 9.5309, "dispossessed": 0.1134, "duels_lost": 3.6767, "aerial_lost": 2.096, "total_contest": 0.3808, "won_contest": 0.3371, "ball_recovery": 2.8168, "challenges_lost": 0.123, "fouls": 1.2984, "fouls_drawn": 0.3903, "blocks": 0.7078, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "shots_on_target": 0.2115, "big_chances_created": 0.0162, "xgot": 0.0332, "ball_carries": 14.6824, "total_progression": 66.5163, "progressive_carries": 0.8395, "key_pass": 0.1688, "shots_off_target": 0.2601, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0355, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0133, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0107, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0135, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "player_id": 831424, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 180, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0021, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "finishing_factor": 0.9597, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2893, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 988, "combined_rank_score": 607.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 770.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6677, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Reinildo Mandava", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jahmali Waite", "ranking": 983 }, { "player_name": "Guillermo Viscarra", "ranking": 984 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Sánchez", "ranking": 985 }, { "player_name": "Jin-uk Jeong", "ranking": 986 }, { "player_name": "Cho Young-kwang", "ranking": 987 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "João Marcelo", "ranking": 989 }, { "player_name": "Saúl Ñíguez", "ranking": 990 }, { "player_name": "Abduvokhid Gulomov", "ranking": 991 }, { "player_name": "Danila Forov", "ranking": 992 }, { "player_name": "Bradley Lyons", "ranking": 993 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9976, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 29 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.184, "tackles": 1.9625, "tackles_won": 1.316, "clearances": 3.2348, "aerial_won": 1.5009, "total_shots": 0.3939, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 35.0384, "accurate_pass": 30.292, "duels_won": 5.2067, "total_long_balls": 2.3039, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1942, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7722, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5198, "crosses_total": 0.7041, "crosses_accurate": 0.1828, "touches": 55.2445, "possession_lost": 8.5443, "dispossessed": 0.3971, "duels_lost": 4.0791, "aerial_lost": 0.8257, "total_contest": 0.7526, "won_contest": 0.5174, "ball_recovery": 4.1736, "challenges_lost": 1.1184, "fouls": 1.5449, "fouls_drawn": 1.1294, "blocks": 0.4186, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0216, "assist_rate": 0.0216, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.045, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0769, "total_progression": 20.3492, "progressive_carries": 0.5402, "key_pass": 0.3654, "shots_off_target": 0.3939 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.0632, "aerialWon": 1.6589, "totalClearance_p90": 5.4019, "totalTackle": 1.7311, "totalPass": 34.078 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.1840364933013916, "model_output": 1.184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1141 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0823 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0315 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.025 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0242 } ], "others": 0.0496, "total": 1.184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.081364 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.029454 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.022774 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.021581 } ], "others_margin": 0.042779 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.9625452756881714, "model_output": 1.9625, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1969 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0853 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0709 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0727 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0451 } ], "others": 0.0977, "total": 1.9625, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132156 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.052237 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.041448 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.04078 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.024455 } ], "others_margin": 0.051079 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.3160479068756104, "model_output": 1.316, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.123 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0823 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0834 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.07 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0412 } ], "others": 0.0617, "total": 1.316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134471 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.080853 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.075797 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.059463 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.033374 } ], "others_margin": 0.048088 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.234802484512329, "model_output": 3.2348, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4706 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.3863 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2576 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1942 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0995 } ], "others": -0.138, "total": 3.2348, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127828 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.103698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.075657 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.057545 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.029067 } ], "others_margin": -0.041766 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.5009409189224243, "model_output": 1.5009, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1935 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1826 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0882 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0817 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0721 } ], "others": -0.1594, "total": 1.5009, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.131069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109646 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.051478 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.050175 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.044392 } ], "others_margin": -0.100915 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.39387187361717224, "model_output": 0.3939, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.112 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0547 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0064, "total": 0.3939, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.112032 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054656 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014809 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.010357 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009099 } ], "others_margin": -0.006332 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.667736053466797, "model_output": 6.6677, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0335, "total": 6.6677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029733 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017801 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014341 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013078 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.009029 } ], "others_margin": -0.033416 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1812, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3129, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.7024, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5412, "fouls_drawn": 1.1267, "blocks": 0.4176, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.0215, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.388, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0127, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9683, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.5412, "after": 1.5524 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1812, "after": 1.1908 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7024, "after": 0.712 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.393, "after": 0.388 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0212, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0449, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9597, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9597, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 988, "fifa_rank": 770.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0021, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9597, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0021, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.002, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0015, "finishing_factor": 0.9597, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1908, "tackles": 1.9578, "tackles_won": 1.3085, "clearances": 3.227, "aerial_won": 1.4973, "total_shots": 0.393, "rating": 6.6677, "minutes": 87.15, "total_pass": 34.9543, "accurate_pass": 30.2193, "duels_won": 5.1942, "total_long_balls": 2.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1913, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7343, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.485, "crosses_total": 0.712, "crosses_accurate": 0.1824, "touches": 55.1119, "possession_lost": 8.5238, "dispossessed": 0.3961, "duels_lost": 4.0693, "aerial_lost": 0.8237, "total_contest": 0.7508, "won_contest": 0.5162, "ball_recovery": 4.1636, "challenges_lost": 1.1157, "fouls": 1.5524, "fouls_drawn": 1.1247, "blocks": 0.4176, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0575, "total_progression": 20.3004, "progressive_carries": 0.5389, "key_pass": 0.3645, "shots_off_target": 0.393, "opponent_faced": "Lukas Nmecha", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0021, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "finishing_factor": 0.9597, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0437, "assist_rate": 0.0212, "provider_weight": 0.0358, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0451, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Noah Sadiki": { "player_id": 1171539, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 173, "market_value": 42000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.091, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.087, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0624, "finishing_factor": 0.8762, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0177, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2784, "expected_assists": 0.1838, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0571, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0248, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4327, "expected_assists": 0.021, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1166, "combined_rank_score": 516.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 696.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8016, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noah Sadiki", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andriy Lunin", "ranking": 1161 }, { "player_name": "Lee Joon-Ho", "ranking": 1162 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 1163 }, { "player_name": "Seung-hyeon Cha", "ranking": 1164 }, { "player_name": "Mats Wieffer", "ranking": 1165 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kingsley Sarfo", "ranking": 1167 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Parra", "ranking": 1168 }, { "player_name": "Yaya Dukuly", "ranking": 1169 }, { "player_name": "Rustam Turdimurodov", "ranking": 1170 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Santos", "ranking": 1171 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 38, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.01, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 50.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 38 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8039, "expected_assists": 0.064, "assists": 0.0764, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "expected_goals": 0.0904, "goals": 0.074, "goal_rate": 0.074, "shots_on_target": 0.3351, "total_shots": 1.0245, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.1215, "accurate_pass": 29.7577, "duels_won": 3.5797, "total_long_balls": 2.2066, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6966, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9476, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4249, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8101, "crosses_total": 0.4787, "crosses_accurate": 0.176, "touches": 46.1288, "possession_lost": 7.1373, "dispossessed": 0.6948, "duels_lost": 2.7405, "aerial_won": 0.4759, "aerial_lost": 0.3972, "interceptions": 0.6274, "tackles_won": 0.7601, "tackles": 1.0987, "clearances": 1.2495, "total_contest": 1.0067, "won_contest": 0.6849, "challenges_lost": 0.5241, "fouls": 0.8109, "fouls_drawn": 1.3383, "blocks": 0.2236, "big_chances_created": 0.1103, "big_chances_missed": 0.2477, "xgot": 0.0486, "ball_carries": 13.2052, "total_progression": 34.7867, "progressive_carries": 1.0097, "shots_off_target": 0.6894 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.1054, "creative_index": 0.2897, "expectedGoals": 0.0862, "expectedAssists": 0.0468, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3954 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8039050102233887, "model_output": 0.8039, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1081 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0688 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0231 } ], "others": -0.0274, "total": 0.8039, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115128 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.092265 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.078962 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.036094 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.02821 } ], "others_margin": -0.033475 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06403225660324097, "model_output": 0.064, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.064, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.172949 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120279 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.054591 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044089 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034442 } ], "others_margin": -0.106529 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07637929171323776, "model_output": 0.0764, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0047 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.0764, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.126987 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.090677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.084516 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.060154 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.037082 } ], "others_margin": -0.011884 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.09044675529003143, "model_output": 0.0904, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0036, "total": 0.0904, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.141259 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.075237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066763 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.053562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.049707 } ], "others_margin": -0.03848 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07400649785995483, "model_output": 0.074, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0076 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0096, "total": 0.074, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.140562 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.085962 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.085903 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.059967 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.04574 } ], "others_margin": -0.122459 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.335074245929718, "model_output": 0.3351, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.042, "total": 0.3351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134843 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.129002 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048288 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042622 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021151 } ], "others_margin": -0.118147 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0244582891464233, "model_output": 1.0245, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1483 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0657, "total": 1.0245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148282 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.050876 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.043479 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.039958 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.016039 } ], "others_margin": -0.065689 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.801568031311035, "model_output": 6.8016, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0377, "total": 6.8016, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027756 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026565 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022913 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020762 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.020251 } ], "others_margin": -0.037698 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.3384, "total_shots": 1.0347, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.4835, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6337, "tackles_won": 0.7677, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 1.3517, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0491, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0101)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "assists": 0.0763, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.0336, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0491, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0101, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9267, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7677, "after": 0.774 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3517, "after": 1.3568 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "assists": 0.0763, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.036, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0491, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "assists": 0.0763, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goals": 0.0739, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.036, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0491, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0647, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0914, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.036, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0491, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.091, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.036, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8762, "creation_factor": 1.1011 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.091, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.036, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8762, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1166, "fifa_rank": 696.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.091, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.036, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.087, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8762, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "scorer_weight": 0.0797, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0582, "finishing_factor": 0.8762, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8119, "expected_assists": 0.0644, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.091, "goal_rate": 0.0739, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 1.036, "rating": 6.8016, "minutes": 83.4, "total_pass": 34.4627, "accurate_pass": 30.0553, "duels_won": 3.6155, "total_long_balls": 2.2287, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8436, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0771, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.6191, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9782, "crosses_total": 0.488, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 46.5901, "possession_lost": 7.2087, "dispossessed": 0.7017, "duels_lost": 2.7679, "aerial_won": 0.4807, "aerial_lost": 0.4012, "interceptions": 0.6367, "tackles_won": 0.774, "tackles": 1.1097, "clearances": 1.262, "total_contest": 1.0168, "won_contest": 0.6917, "challenges_lost": 0.5293, "fouls": 0.8154, "fouls_drawn": 1.3568, "blocks": 0.2258, "big_chances_created": 0.1114, "big_chances_missed": 0.2502, "xgot": 0.0489, "ball_carries": 13.3373, "total_progression": 35.1346, "progressive_carries": 1.0198, "shots_off_target": 0.6963, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Lukas Nmecha, Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.087, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0624, "finishing_factor": 0.8762, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0624, "assist_rate": 0.0763, "provider_weight": 0.0709, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0895, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Brian Brobbey": { "player_id": 910048, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 180, "market_value": 53000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4291, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 81, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5414, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0409, "finishing_factor": 1.2389, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.8, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.3467, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2617, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2977, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9054, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3287, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1772, "expected_assists": 0.1063, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2748, "combined_rank_score": 950.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 789.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.629, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1112.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9961, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Brian Brobbey", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jon Karrikaburu", "ranking": 2743 }, { "player_name": "Cristopher Barrera", "ranking": 2744 }, { "player_name": "Vilius Armalas", "ranking": 2745 }, { "player_name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "ranking": 2746 }, { "player_name": "Ruiz de Galarreta", "ranking": 2747 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Campos López", "ranking": 2749 }, { "player_name": "Antonín Kinský", "ranking": 2750 }, { "player_name": "Austin Ludwik", "ranking": 2751 }, { "player_name": "Tae-in Jung", "ranking": 2752 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Icardi", "ranking": 2753 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.764, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.012, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 130.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.08, "shots_on_target_pct": 33.3, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 36 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4176, "goals": 0.5329, "goal_rate": 0.5329, "shots_on_target": 1.2824, "total_shots": 2.8131, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "key_pass": 0.6347, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.4797, "accurate_pass": 10.3759, "duels_won": 4.654, "total_long_balls": 0.2917, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2349, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9926, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2041, "crosses_total": 0.1871, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.0523, "possession_lost": 7.3205, "dispossessed": 0.9005, "duels_lost": 4.9461, "aerial_lost": 1.6782, "total_contest": 1.0295, "won_contest": 0.3386, "ball_recovery": 1.7166, "challenges_lost": 0.1452, "fouls": 1.6474, "fouls_drawn": 1.8799, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0352, "tackles": 0.127, "clearances": 0.4449, "blocks": 0.1071, "big_chances_created": 0.1323, "big_chances_missed": 0.381, "xgot": 0.527, "offsides": 0.4975, "ball_carries": 6.3636, "total_progression": 1.9135, "progressive_carries": 0.5061, "shots_off_target": 1.5307 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 9.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.5557, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.9177, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.1491, "accuratePass": 10.2995, "totalShots": 2.1064 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.4176361858844757, "model_output": 0.4176, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 } ], "others": 0.0391, "total": 0.4176, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.263242 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.185207 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.080001 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.071624 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042991 } ], "others_margin": 0.09847 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.5329233407974243, "model_output": 0.5329, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0553 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0708 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0336 } ], "others": 0.0759, "total": 0.5329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24008 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.207036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.200773 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.083594 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.076304 } ], "others_margin": 0.1537 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.2823963165283203, "model_output": 1.2824, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1568 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.075 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.073 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0635 } ], "others": 0.2672, "total": 1.2824, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256197 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.147093 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.08925 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.079767 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.064567 } ], "others_margin": 0.233651 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.8130881786346436, "model_output": 2.8131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5872 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1815 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1748 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1397 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.1002 } ], "others": 0.251, "total": 2.8131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.587176 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.181545 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.174785 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.139686 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.100247 } ], "others_margin": 0.250942 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04153180867433548, "model_output": 0.0415, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0156 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0037 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 0.0415, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.217029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.154468 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.108259 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.088714 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.067945 } ], "others_margin": -0.234485 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6346918344497681, "model_output": 0.6347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2154 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0594 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0377 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0281 } ], "others": -0.0995, "total": 0.6347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.27731 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.069131 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046482 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.038555 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.037496 } ], "others_margin": -0.145702 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9960713386535645, "model_output": 6.9961, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1169 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 6.9961, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.116888 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062285 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.024442 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01918 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.017269 } ], "others_margin": -0.006154 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4226, "goals": 0.5393, "goal_rate": 0.5393, "shots_on_target": 1.2978, "total_shots": 2.8469, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1893, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6672, "fouls_drawn": 1.9025, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0356, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3856, "xgot": 0.5333, "offsides": 0.5035, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5491 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4226, "goals": 0.5353, "goal_rate": 0.5353, "shots_on_target": 1.2928, "total_shots": 2.8397, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3856, "xgot": 0.5333, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5491 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0074, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8988, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.5035, "after": 0.514 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.9025, "after": 1.8932 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.8469, "after": 2.8397 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.2978, "after": 1.2928 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4226, "goals": 0.5353, "goal_rate": 0.5353, "shots_on_target": 1.2928, "total_shots": 2.8419, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3856, "xgot": 0.5333, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5491 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4309, "goals": 0.5458, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "shots_on_target": 1.3183, "total_shots": 2.8979, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3932, "xgot": 0.5438, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5796, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "skill_edge": 0.0554, "height_edge": -0.042, "attacker_skill": 0.834, "defender_skill": 0.7109, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "market_value": 11000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5755 } ], "xg_override": 0.4309 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.8419, "after": 2.8979 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5491, "after": 1.5796 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.2928, "after": 1.3183 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.5353, "after": 0.5458 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.5333, "after": 0.5438 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4226, "after": 0.4309 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3856, "after": 0.3932 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4309, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.3183, "total_shots": 2.8979, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3932, "xgot": 0.5438, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5796, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4291, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.3183, "total_shots": 2.8979, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3932, "xgot": 0.5414, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5796, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2389, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4291, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.3183, "total_shots": 2.8979, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3932, "xgot": 0.5414, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5796, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2389, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2748, "fifa_rank": 1112.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4291, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.3183, "total_shots": 2.8979, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3932, "xgot": 0.5414, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5796, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2389, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3489, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "scorer_weight": 0.5316, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.3879, "finishing_factor": 1.2389, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4291, "goal_rate": 0.5458, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.3183, "total_shots": 2.8979, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.6423, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 80.89, "total_pass": 13.6415, "accurate_pass": 10.5004, "duels_won": 4.7098, "total_long_balls": 0.2952, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2377, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1125, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2905, "crosses_total": 0.1879, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.3529, "possession_lost": 7.4083, "dispossessed": 0.9113, "duels_lost": 5.0055, "aerial_lost": 1.6983, "total_contest": 1.0419, "won_contest": 0.3427, "ball_recovery": 1.7372, "challenges_lost": 0.1469, "fouls": 1.6691, "fouls_drawn": 1.8932, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0353, "tackles": 0.1285, "clearances": 0.4502, "blocks": 0.1084, "big_chances_created": 0.1339, "big_chances_missed": 0.3932, "xgot": 0.5414, "offsides": 0.514, "ball_carries": 6.44, "total_progression": 1.9365, "progressive_carries": 0.5122, "shots_off_target": 1.5796, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0409, "finishing_factor": 1.2389, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0409, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0334, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0422, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "player_id": 984014, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 28, "height": 173, "market_value": 28000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2425, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2687, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2153, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.16, "finishing_factor": 0.9292, "creation_factor": 0.8347, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "expected_assists": 0.2451, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.5204, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8452, "expected_assists": 0.5894, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8418, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3659, "expected_assists": 0.175, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0292, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.6556, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1244, "expected_assists": 0.2857, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2588, "expected_assists": 0.3474, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1283, "combined_rank_score": 557.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 427.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9167, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 687.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9158, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enzo Le Fée", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gi-pyo Kwon", "ranking": 1278 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Hyeon-byung", "ranking": 1279 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Demchenko", "ranking": 1280 }, { "player_name": "Alessio Romagnoli", "ranking": 1281 }, { "player_name": "Alex Meret", "ranking": 1282 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Osvaldo González", "ranking": 1284 }, { "player_name": "Jae-seong Park", "ranking": 1285 }, { "player_name": "Mario Hermoso", "ranking": 1286 }, { "player_name": "Giovani Lo Celso", "ranking": 1287 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torreira", "ranking": 1288 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 41, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0064, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 168.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.14, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 41 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.807, "expected_assists": 0.174, "assists": 0.1382, "assist_rate": 0.1382, "expected_goals": 0.2421, "goals": 0.2233, "goal_rate": 0.2233, "shots_on_target": 0.674, "total_shots": 1.7338, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.2677, "accurate_pass": 24.744, "duels_won": 5.0111, "total_long_balls": 1.4295, "accurate_long_balls": 0.811, "total_own_half_passes": 10.356, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9523, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.9117, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.7916, "crosses_total": 3.0756, "crosses_accurate": 1.109, "touches": 49.1981, "possession_lost": 12.336, "dispossessed": 0.9251, "duels_lost": 4.3465, "aerial_won": 0.5104, "aerial_lost": 0.9155, "interceptions": 0.7902, "tackles_won": 1.3402, "tackles": 2.049, "clearances": 0.3474, "total_contest": 1.7565, "won_contest": 0.7972, "challenges_lost": 1.049, "fouls": 0.4977, "fouls_drawn": 1.6545, "blocks": 0.1208, "big_chances_created": 0.9064, "big_chances_missed": 0.2394, "xgot": 0.2682, "ball_carries": 11.9676, "total_progression": 28.8247, "progressive_carries": 1.5759, "shots_off_target": 1.0598 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.7229, "creative_index": 0.994, "expectedGoals": 0.2846, "expectedAssists": 0.3111, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.6459 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.8070160150527954, "model_output": 1.807, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1919 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1468 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.145 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1083 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0838 } ], "others": 0.245, "total": 1.807, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.196034 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.127661 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111886 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.076056 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.055124 } ], "others_margin": 0.145731 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.17402812838554382, "model_output": 0.174, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0303, "total": 0.174, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.170388 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.135667 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104149 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.055267 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.050844 } ], "others_margin": 0.191194 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.1381828635931015, "model_output": 0.1382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0069, "total": 0.1382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.11669 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.114529 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.10797 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.048086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045656 } ], "others_margin": 0.050299 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.24205254018306732, "model_output": 0.2421, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 0.2421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.45976 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.188289 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126732 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.092049 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.050425 } ], "others_margin": 0.024061 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.22332870960235596, "model_output": 0.2233, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0393 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0201 } ], "others": 0.0046, "total": 0.2233, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.338571 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.163839 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.105222 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.102804 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096375 } ], "others_margin": 0.020493 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.6740067005157471, "model_output": 0.674, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1072 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.1052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0221 } ], "others": -0.0017, "total": 0.674, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.285799 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.218298 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.1179 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.07979 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.033198 } ], "others_margin": -0.002462 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.7338416576385498, "model_output": 1.7338, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4133 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1612 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.12 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0973 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0557 } ], "others": 0.0072, "total": 1.7338, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.413337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.161238 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.119987 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.097333 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.05566 } ], "others_margin": 0.007142 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.915755271911621, "model_output": 6.9158, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0278 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 6.9158, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027784 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022962 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.022851 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.019025 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018901 } ], "others_margin": 0.001062 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assists": 0.1391, "assist_rate": 0.1391, "expected_goals": 0.2436, "goals": 0.2248, "goal_rate": 0.2248, "shots_on_target": 0.6783, "total_shots": 1.7449, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0953, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7953, "tackles_won": 1.3488, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5009, "fouls_drawn": 1.6651, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2699, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assists": 0.1379, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "expected_goals": 0.2436, "goals": 0.2228, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2699, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.987, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.0953, "after": 3.0862 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assists": 0.1379, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "expected_goals": 0.2436, "goals": 0.2228, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2699, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assists": 0.1379, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "expected_goals": 0.2436, "goals": 0.2228, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2699, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2436, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2699, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2425, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2687, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9292, "creation_factor": 0.8347 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2425, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2687, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9292, "creation_factor": 0.8347, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1283, "fifa_rank": 687.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2425, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2687, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2153, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9292, "creation_factor": 0.8347, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2153, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "scorer_weight": 0.2253, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.1644, "finishing_factor": 0.9292, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.8186, "expected_assists": 0.1743, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2425, "goal_rate": 0.2228, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.677, "total_shots": 1.7482, "rating": 6.9158, "minutes": 88.83, "total_pass": 31.4678, "accurate_pass": 24.9024, "duels_won": 5.0432, "total_long_balls": 1.4386, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8162, "total_own_half_passes": 10.4223, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0096, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.0455, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8927, "crosses_total": 3.0862, "crosses_accurate": 1.1161, "touches": 49.513, "possession_lost": 12.415, "dispossessed": 0.931, "duels_lost": 4.3743, "aerial_won": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.9214, "interceptions": 0.7928, "tackles_won": 1.346, "tackles": 2.0621, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 1.7677, "won_contest": 0.8023, "challenges_lost": 1.0557, "fouls": 0.5011, "fouls_drawn": 1.6641, "blocks": 0.1216, "big_chances_created": 0.9122, "big_chances_missed": 0.2409, "xgot": 0.2687, "ball_carries": 12.0442, "total_progression": 29.0092, "progressive_carries": 1.586, "shots_off_target": 1.0666, "opponent_faced": "Ao Tanaka", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2153, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.16, "finishing_factor": 0.9292, "creation_factor": 0.8347, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.16, "assist_rate": 0.1379, "provider_weight": 0.1455, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.1836, "creation_factor": 0.8347, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Habib Diarra": { "player_id": 1128532, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1331, "goal_rate": 0.113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1519, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anton Stach", "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1246, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0931, "finishing_factor": 0.8873, "creation_factor": 1.052, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1573, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1273, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1407, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6504, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.241, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3071, "combined_rank_score": 1038.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 641.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.75, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.743, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Karetsas", "ranking": 3066 }, { "player_name": "İlkay Gündoğan", "ranking": 3067 }, { "player_name": "Amine Adli", "ranking": 3068 }, { "player_name": "Arnaud Kalimuendo", "ranking": 3069 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 3070 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jaidon Anthony", "ranking": 3072 }, { "player_name": "Alex Arce", "ranking": 3073 }, { "player_name": "Matías Dituro", "ranking": 3074 }, { "player_name": "Liam Delap", "ranking": 3075 }, { "player_name": "Leopold Querfeld", "ranking": 3076 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 22, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 22, "data_confidence": 0.753, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0144, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 29.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 3.3333333333333335, "shots_per90": 3.1, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 22 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.02, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 3.3333333333333335)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0479, "expected_assists": 0.0967, "assists": 0.0971, "assist_rate": 0.0971, "expected_goals": 0.14, "goals": 0.1186, "goal_rate": 0.1186, "shots_on_target": 0.4847, "total_shots": 1.4746, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.0189, "accurate_pass": 20.3952, "duels_won": 3.9902, "total_long_balls": 0.7317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1094, "total_own_half_passes": 10.0055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9556, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4396, "crosses_total": 1.8901, "crosses_accurate": 0.1778, "touches": 37.3696, "possession_lost": 8.9363, "dispossessed": 0.7104, "duels_lost": 4.2466, "aerial_won": 0.6531, "aerial_lost": 0.8242, "interceptions": 0.1954, "tackles_won": 0.5911, "tackles": 0.8232, "clearances": 0.425, "total_contest": 1.339, "won_contest": 0.4456, "challenges_lost": 0.5082, "fouls": 1.3105, "fouls_drawn": 2.0683, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2053, "xgot": 0.1598, "ball_carries": 13.3359, "total_progression": 38.0733, "progressive_carries": 1.4643, "shots_off_target": 0.9899 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1543, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1312, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1115, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0948, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0806, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0685, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0582, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0495, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0421, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0357, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.0965, "creative_index": 0.2513, "expectedGoals": 0.1228, "expectedAssists": 0.0607, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2167 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.047936201095581, "model_output": 1.0479, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1176 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0584 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0321 } ], "others": 0.0507, "total": 1.0479, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124568 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.059912 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.0558 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.035198 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.0327 } ], "others_margin": 0.04968 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09671109169721603, "model_output": 0.0967, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0042 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0032 } ], "others": 0.0024, "total": 0.0967, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115588 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085891 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.053911 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043745 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.033644 } ], "others_margin": 0.026311 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09714360535144806, "model_output": 0.0971, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0065 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.0971, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.127151 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.097367 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075447 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.053773 } ], "others_margin": 0.06969 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.14001083374023438, "model_output": 0.14, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0085 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0078, "total": 0.14, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.134413 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114025 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.077795 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.06317 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.052428 } ], "others_margin": 0.056907 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11860260367393494, "model_output": 0.1186, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.1186, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.151985 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128006 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.110557 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.105811 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.070248 } ], "others_margin": -0.151057 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4846615493297577, "model_output": 0.4847, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0306 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 0.4847, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116826 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.086035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.083803 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.081345 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06326 } ], "others_margin": -0.028535 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.4745792150497437, "model_output": 1.4746, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1758 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0846 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0534 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0326 } ], "others": 0.0913, "total": 1.4746, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.17582 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.084557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.053434 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.046374 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.032606 } ], "others_margin": 0.091325 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.743017673492432, "model_output": 6.743, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0227, "total": 6.743, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045984 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033408 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024441 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019887 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008287 } ], "others_margin": -0.022728 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0.0985, "assist_rate": 0.0985, "expected_goals": 0.142, "goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1203, "shots_on_target": 0.4916, "total_shots": 1.4958, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9173, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 0.6625, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1982, "tackles_won": 0.5996, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3294, "fouls_drawn": 2.0981, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2083, "xgot": 0.1621, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 1.0042 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 37000000, "quality_factor": 0.7641, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0.1058, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "expected_goals": 0.142, "goals": 0.12, "goal_rate": 0.12, "shots_on_target": 0.4904, "total_shots": 1.4992, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 0.6625, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2083, "xgot": 0.1621, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 1.0042 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9331, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.0985, "after": 0.1058 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.0981, "after": 2.093 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0.1058, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "expected_goals": 0.142, "goals": 0.12, "goal_rate": 0.12, "shots_on_target": 0.4904, "total_shots": 1.4992, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 0.6625, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2083, "xgot": 0.1621, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 1.0042 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0.1058, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "expected_goals": 0.1337, "goals": 0.113, "goal_rate": 0.113, "shots_on_target": 0.4616, "total_shots": 1.4112, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1961, "xgot": 0.1526, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 0.9453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anton Stach", "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "skill_edge": 0.012, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.7752, "defender_skill": 0.7484, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Anton Stach", "market_value": 31000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.7484 } ], "xg_override": 0.1337 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.6625, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4992, "after": 1.4112 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0042, "after": 0.9453 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4904, "after": 0.4616 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2083, "after": 0.1961 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1621, "after": 0.1526 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.142, "after": 0.1337 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.12, "after": 0.113 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1337, "goal_rate": 0.113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4616, "total_shots": 1.4112, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1961, "xgot": 0.1526, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 0.9453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anton Stach", "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1331, "goal_rate": 0.113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4616, "total_shots": 1.4112, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1961, "xgot": 0.1519, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 0.9453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anton Stach", "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8873, "creation_factor": 1.052 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1331, "goal_rate": 0.113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4616, "total_shots": 1.4112, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1961, "xgot": 0.1519, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 0.9453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anton Stach", "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8873, "creation_factor": 1.052, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3071, "fifa_rank": 1436.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1331, "goal_rate": 0.113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4616, "total_shots": 1.4112, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1961, "xgot": 0.1519, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 0.9453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anton Stach", "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1246, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8873, "creation_factor": 1.052, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1246, "goal_rate": 0.113, "scorer_weight": 0.1181, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0862, "finishing_factor": 0.8873, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.063, "expected_assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1331, "goal_rate": 0.113, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4616, "total_shots": 1.4112, "rating": 6.743, "minutes": 83.98, "total_pass": 25.3792, "accurate_pass": 20.6889, "duels_won": 4.0477, "total_long_balls": 0.7422, "accurate_long_balls": 0.111, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1496, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0846, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.2296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6043, "crosses_total": 1.9127, "crosses_accurate": 0.1804, "touches": 37.9077, "possession_lost": 9.065, "dispossessed": 0.7206, "duels_lost": 4.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8361, "interceptions": 0.1977, "tackles_won": 0.5982, "tackles": 0.8351, "clearances": 0.4311, "total_contest": 1.3583, "won_contest": 0.452, "challenges_lost": 0.5155, "fouls": 1.3337, "fouls_drawn": 2.093, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1961, "xgot": 0.1519, "ball_carries": 13.5279, "total_progression": 38.6216, "progressive_carries": 1.4854, "shots_off_target": 0.9453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Anton Stach", "opponent_faced": "Anton Stach", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1246, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0931, "finishing_factor": 0.8873, "creation_factor": 1.052, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0931, "assist_rate": 0.1058, "provider_weight": 0.1028, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.1297, "creation_factor": 1.052, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Trai Hume": { "player_id": 989034, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 180, "market_value": 20000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0851, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0585, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0953, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0993, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.267, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.177, "expected_assists": 0.1872, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0245, "expected_assists": 0.0962, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.056, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1649, "combined_rank_score": 668.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 217.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1119.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6579, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking": 1644 }, { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 }, { "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking": 1648 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alfonso Pedraza", "ranking": 1650 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Provod", "ranking": 1651 }, { "player_name": "Isi Palazón", "ranking": 1652 }, { "player_name": "Walter Benítez", "ranking": 1653 }, { "player_name": "Khumoyun Sherbutaev", "ranking": 1654 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.769, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 169.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.07, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1267 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 42 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7087, "tackles": 1.9248, "tackles_won": 1.1317, "clearances": 2.0978, "aerial_won": 1.1138, "total_shots": 0.6565, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.1869, "accurate_pass": 21.893, "duels_won": 4.3404, "total_long_balls": 1.7015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8375, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9324, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.3652, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5278, "crosses_total": 1.9031, "crosses_accurate": 0.4318, "touches": 44.3692, "possession_lost": 11.0999, "dispossessed": 0.4704, "duels_lost": 4.2316, "aerial_lost": 1.4907, "total_contest": 0.7024, "won_contest": 0.168, "ball_recovery": 3.398, "challenges_lost": 0.633, "fouls": 1.1031, "fouls_drawn": 0.8502, "blocks": 0.4427, "goals": 0.1196, "goal_rate": 0.1196, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "shots_on_target": 0.1449, "big_chances_created": 0.2666, "xgot": 0.0852, "ball_carries": 7.7735, "total_progression": 16.7932, "progressive_carries": 0.4364, "key_pass": 1.5694, "shots_off_target": 0.5116 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 1.0578, "aerialWon": 1.4805, "totalClearance_p90": 1.2937, "totalTackle": 1.9097, "totalPass": 20.6885 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.7086708545684814, "model_output": 0.7087, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.1038 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0939 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0207 } ], "others": -0.0515, "total": 0.7087, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.129092 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11751 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.050658 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.030978 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.026853 } ], "others_margin": -0.070293 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.9247639179229736, "model_output": 1.9248, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1866 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1343 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0414 } ], "others": 0.1396, "total": 1.9248, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125647 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.08157 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.038797 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02437 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.022935 } ], "others_margin": 0.075267 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.1317301988601685, "model_output": 1.1317, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1124 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0658 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": 0.0304, "total": 1.1317, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123559 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.064242 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.061838 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.033116 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.028882 } ], "others_margin": 0.027288 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.0977795124053955, "model_output": 2.0978, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.7711 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3654 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.3384 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2789 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2417 } ], "others": -0.0889, "total": 2.0978, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.25285 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12779 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.117795 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.108705 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.104838 } ], "others_margin": -0.041505 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1137868165969849, "model_output": 1.1138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1644 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1333 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1264 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.029 } ], "others": -0.0335, "total": 1.1138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.126619 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103858 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.098228 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.040133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.024942 } ], "others_margin": -0.029723 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6564770936965942, "model_output": 0.6565, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1404 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0555 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": -0.031, "total": 0.6565, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.140435 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055498 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.015088 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.012639 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007196 } ], "others_margin": -0.031119 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657876014709473, "model_output": 6.6579, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0426, "total": 6.6579, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.038896 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029032 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.027357 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.027039 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.020295 } ], "others_margin": -0.042701 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.631)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7115, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1363, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6591, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9107, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1075, "fouls_drawn": 0.8536, "blocks": 0.4445, "goals": 0.1201, "goal_rate": 0.1201, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "expected_assists": 0.1005, "shots_on_target": 0.1455, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0855, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 20000000, "quality_factor": 0.6311, "boost_factor": 1.004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0088)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goals": 0.119, "goal_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "expected_assists": 0.1005, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0855, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0088, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9468, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8536, "after": 0.8461 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1363, "after": 1.1438 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goals": 0.119, "goal_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "expected_assists": 0.1005, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0855, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goals": 0.119, "goal_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0.0016, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "expected_assists": 0.1005, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0855, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0606, "expected_assists": 0.1005, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0855, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0851, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0851, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1649, "fifa_rank": 1119.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0851, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0585, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.119, "scorer_weight": 0.0754, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.055, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7096, "tackles": 1.9325, "tackles_won": 1.1438, "clearances": 2.1062, "aerial_won": 1.1182, "total_shots": 0.6622, "rating": 6.6579, "minutes": 85.21, "total_pass": 28.2996, "accurate_pass": 21.9806, "duels_won": 4.3578, "total_long_balls": 1.7083, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8408, "total_own_half_passes": 10.9761, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.4027, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.3235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.5779, "crosses_total": 1.9114, "crosses_accurate": 0.4335, "touches": 44.5467, "possession_lost": 11.1443, "dispossessed": 0.4723, "duels_lost": 4.2485, "aerial_lost": 1.4967, "total_contest": 0.7052, "won_contest": 0.1687, "ball_recovery": 3.4116, "challenges_lost": 0.6355, "fouls": 1.1109, "fouls_drawn": 0.8461, "blocks": 0.4445, "goal_rate": 0.119, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0603, "expected_assists": 0.1001, "shots_on_target": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2677, "xgot": 0.0851, "ball_carries": 7.8046, "total_progression": 16.8604, "progressive_carries": 0.4381, "key_pass": 1.5757, "shots_off_target": 0.5136, "opponent_faced": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0585, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0953, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0953, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "provider_weight": 0.0801, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.1011, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Granit Xhaka": { "player_id": 117777, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 34, "height": 185, "market_value": 8500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1766, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 51, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 9, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 74, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 63, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0268, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1619, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1068, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0922, "expected_assists": 0.0481, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3836, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3704, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0594, "expected_assists": 0.1191, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3557, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0913, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 70, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2747, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 45, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0208, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 71, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "expected_assists": 0.2702, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 71, "combined_rank_score": 82.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 30.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 135.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.3139, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Julián Alvarez", "ranking": 66 }, { "player_name": "Jamshid Iskandarov", "ranking": 67 }, { "player_name": "Emiliano Martínez", "ranking": 68 }, { "player_name": "Cole Palmer", "ranking": 69 }, { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 70 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 72 }, { "player_name": "Silva Denisson", "ranking": 73 }, { "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking": 74 }, { "player_name": "Chema Andrés", "ranking": 75 }, { "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking": 76 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Sunderland, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1774, "assists": 0.1125, "assist_rate": 0.1125, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1721, "total_shots": 0.7339, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2514, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 0.9277, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0018, "tackles_won": 1.1969, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.9012, "fouls_drawn": 1.5944, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.5618 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.4329, "creative_index": 0.8608, "expectedGoals": 0.0203, "expectedAssists": 0.2271, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0127 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.0320348739624023, "model_output": 2.032, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.2305 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1539 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1675 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1365 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.1102 } ], "others": 0.3472, "total": 2.032, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.231224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.129123 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123861 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.090654 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.067615 } ], "others_margin": 0.187375 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.17743290960788727, "model_output": 0.1774, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0216, "total": 0.1774, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.202189 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.165989 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113945 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.058137 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.05642 } ], "others_margin": 0.130205 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.11245810985565186, "model_output": 0.1125, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0061, "total": 0.1125, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.147102 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.130771 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.120359 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.098136 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.095747 } ], "others_margin": -0.05334 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03759421780705452, "model_output": 0.0376, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.0125, "total": 0.0376, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.422983 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.150155 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119451 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.095536 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.085127 } ], "others_margin": -0.286639 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.037404999136924744, "model_output": 0.0374, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0038 } ], "others": -0.011, "total": 0.0374, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.290178 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.244838 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.157683 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.089851 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.081613 } ], "others_margin": -0.258601 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.17211562395095825, "model_output": 0.1721, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0786 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0156, "total": 0.1721, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.277706 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.211143 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.113264 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.094428 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.075527 } ], "others_margin": -0.087009 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7338787913322449, "model_output": 0.7339, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2298 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0534 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.044 } ], "others": -0.1312, "total": 0.7339, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.229788 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114648 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.087192 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053423 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043958 } ], "others_margin": -0.131256 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.3138957023620605, "model_output": 7.3139, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1554 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.108 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0328 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0298 } ], "others": 0.0912, "total": 7.3139, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.155413 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.10801 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.047779 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03284 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.029814 } ], "others_margin": 0.091168 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.505)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1774, "assists": 0.1125, "assist_rate": 0.1125, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1721, "total_shots": 0.7339, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2514, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 0.9277, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0018, "tackles_won": 1.1969, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.9012, "fouls_drawn": 1.5944, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.5618 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8500000, "quality_factor": 0.5047, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1774, "assists": 0.1114, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1704, "total_shots": 0.7267, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 0.9277, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.5618 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9947, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5944, "after": 1.613 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.2514, "after": 4.2634 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7339, "after": 0.7267 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.1969, "after": 1.19 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1774, "assists": 0.1114, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1704, "total_shots": 0.7322, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 0.9277, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.5618 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1774, "assists": 0.1114, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goals": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "shots_on_target": 0.1239, "total_shots": 0.5324, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.4085, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "skill_edge": -0.1537, "height_edge": -0.032, "attacker_skill": 0.5047, "defender_skill": 0.8462, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "market_value": 43000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8462 } ], "xg_override": 0.0273 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.9277, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7322, "after": 0.5324 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5618, "after": 0.4085 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1704, "after": 0.1239 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0376, "after": 0.0273 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.037, "after": 0.0269 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1774, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1239, "total_shots": 0.5324, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.4085, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1766, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1239, "total_shots": 0.5324, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.4085, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1766, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1239, "total_shots": 0.5324, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.4085, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 71, "fifa_rank": 135.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1766, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1239, "total_shots": 0.5324, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.4085, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0268, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0268, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "scorer_weight": 0.0271, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.032, "expected_assists": 0.1766, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "goal_rate": 0.0269, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1239, "total_shots": 0.5324, "rating": 7.3139, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 59.0472, "accurate_pass": 50.7076, "duels_won": 4.791, "total_long_balls": 9.1772, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2464, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.7056, "total_opp_half_passes": 34.8008, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.002, "crosses_total": 4.2634, "crosses_accurate": 0.8772, "touches": 74.3722, "possession_lost": 13.6891, "dispossessed": 0.8914, "duels_lost": 3.4821, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9856, "interceptions": 1.0017, "tackles_won": 1.19, "tackles": 1.6315, "clearances": 1.1143, "total_contest": 1.0536, "won_contest": 0.6825, "challenges_lost": 0.3366, "fouls": 0.8972, "fouls_drawn": 1.613, "blocks": 0.5599, "big_chances_created": 0.7209, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.7099, "total_progression": 62.9306, "progressive_carries": 0.9075, "shots_off_target": 0.4085, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tarik Muharemović", "opponent_faced": "Tarik Muharemović", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0268, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1619, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1619, "assist_rate": 0.1114, "provider_weight": 0.1413, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.1783, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Anthony Patterson": { "player_id": 958718, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0257, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0154, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1285, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.119, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5078, "combined_rank_score": 3269.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3269.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "name", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anthony Patterson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hiroki Sakai", "ranking": 5073 }, { "player_name": "Clemens Riedel", "ranking": 5074 }, { "player_name": "Martín Sarrafiore", "ranking": 5075 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Cuesta", "ranking": 5076 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Guzmán", "ranking": 5077 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Miguel Rubio", "ranking": 5079 }, { "player_name": "Souza", "ranking": 5080 }, { "player_name": "Marko Janković", "ranking": 5081 }, { "player_name": "José Córdoba", "ranking": 5082 }, { "player_name": "Jeyland Mitchell", "ranking": 5083 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.62527948921528, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.1193308858734218, "market_value_adjustment": 0.4963, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€7,800,000) scaled to 4.6 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.50)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0, "goals_prevented": 0.5, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.0, "accurate_pass": 20.0, "total_long_balls": 9.0, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0, "touches": 32.0, "clearances": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 1.2, "high_claims": 0.6, "punches": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.7, "sweeper_actions": 1.2, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8, "saves_inside_box": 1.2, "possession_lost": 2.5, "duels_won": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0.2, "total_contest": 0.4, "won_contest": 0.2, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.12)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1542, "goals_prevented": 0.0257, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.63, "total_pass": 1.3876, "accurate_pass": 1.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.4625, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2056, "touches": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.0514, "ball_recovery": 0.0617, "high_claims": 0.0308, "punches": 0.0154, "aerial_won": 0.036, "sweeper_actions": 0.0617, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0411, "saves_inside_box": 0.0617, "possession_lost": 0.1285, "duels_won": 0.0206, "duels_lost": 0.0103, "total_contest": 0.0206, "won_contest": 0.0103, "fouls": 0.0103, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1306, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.119, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.63, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0514, "appearance_probability": 0.119 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1542, "goals_prevented": 0.0257, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.63, "total_pass": 1.3876, "accurate_pass": 1.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.4625, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2056, "touches": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.0514, "ball_recovery": 0.0617, "high_claims": 0.0308, "punches": 0.0154, "aerial_won": 0.036, "sweeper_actions": 0.0617, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0411, "saves_inside_box": 0.0617, "possession_lost": 0.1285, "duels_won": 0.0206, "duels_lost": 0.0103, "total_contest": 0.0206, "won_contest": 0.0103, "fouls": 0.0103, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1306, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.119, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1542, "goals_prevented": 0.0257, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.63, "total_pass": 1.3876, "accurate_pass": 1.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.4625, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2056, "touches": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.0514, "ball_recovery": 0.0617, "high_claims": 0.0308, "punches": 0.0154, "aerial_won": 0.036, "sweeper_actions": 0.0617, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0411, "saves_inside_box": 0.0617, "possession_lost": 0.1285, "duels_won": 0.0206, "duels_lost": 0.0103, "total_contest": 0.0206, "won_contest": 0.0103, "fouls": 0.0103, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1306, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.119, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.119, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1542, "goals_prevented": 0.0257, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4.63, "total_pass": 1.3876, "accurate_pass": 1.0278, "total_long_balls": 0.4625, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2056, "touches": 1.6445, "clearances": 0.0514, "ball_recovery": 0.0617, "high_claims": 0.0308, "punches": 0.0154, "aerial_won": 0.036, "sweeper_actions": 0.0617, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0411, "saves_inside_box": 0.0617, "possession_lost": 0.1285, "duels_won": 0.0206, "duels_lost": 0.0103, "total_contest": 0.0206, "won_contest": 0.0103, "fouls": 0.0103, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1306, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.119, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "global_player_rank": 5078, "fifa_rank": 3269.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "name", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Daniel Ballard": { "player_id": 958878, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1416, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0843, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "expected_assists": 0.1403, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0286, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 53, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 4.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0402, "expected_assists": 0.053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0119, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1580, "combined_rank_score": 643.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7545, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mauricio Vera", "ranking": 1575 }, { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.588753327668249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.238, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0073, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (34 historical appearances) to 14.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4109, "tackles": 0.6362, "tackles_won": 0.3693, "clearances": 1.737, "aerial_won": 1.1645, "total_shots": 0.3609, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.4251, "accurate_pass": 12.7736, "duels_won": 4.1869, "total_long_balls": 0.7055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1948, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4588, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8056, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.968, "crosses_total": 0.2696, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.2656, "possession_lost": 2.9212, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9136, "aerial_lost": 2.4492, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9289, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6052, "fouls_drawn": 0.2696, "blocks": 0.4104, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0569, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9189, "total_progression": 45.0582, "progressive_carries": 1.0811, "key_pass": 0.1408, "shots_off_target": 0.3609 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 4.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.8234, "aerialWon": 4.2667, "totalClearance_p90": 6.0251, "totalTackle": 1.6238, "totalPass": 37.855 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.41094622015953064, "model_output": 0.4109, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4779 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 0.4109, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.815323 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.044868 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.034256 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.032448 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023899 } ], "others_margin": -0.055441 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6361856460571289, "model_output": 0.6362, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7699 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.018 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 0.6362, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.803687 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.068834 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.029995 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.029819 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.027281 } ], "others_margin": -0.022044 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3692726492881775, "model_output": 0.3693, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4394 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0147, "total": 0.3693, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.722301 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.037293 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.037089 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.036691 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.033762 } ], "others_margin": -0.039194 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7369916439056396, "model_output": 1.737, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2011 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2669 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1513 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0813 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0662 } ], "others": -0.079, "total": 1.737, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.015357 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.193485 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.095059 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.047551 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.037143 } ], "others_margin": -0.04451 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1644991636276245, "model_output": 1.1645, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8299 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.37 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1129 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0925 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.037 } ], "others": 0.0, "total": 1.1645, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.917567 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.512934 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.115457 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.085616 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.032315 } ], "others_margin": -1.7e-05 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3609392046928406, "model_output": 0.3609, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.128 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.017 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.3609, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.251719 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.127994 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.017757 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.016988 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013546 } ], "others_margin": -0.007666 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754479885101318, "model_output": 6.7545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0177, "total": 6.7545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028069 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023405 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02211 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.018756 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014287 } ], "others_margin": -0.017675 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0073, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4139, "tackles": 0.6408, "tackles_won": 0.372, "clearances": 1.7497, "aerial_won": 1.173, "total_shots": 0.3636, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5377, "accurate_pass": 12.8668, "duels_won": 4.2175, "total_long_balls": 0.7107, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1962, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8626, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0043, "crosses_total": 0.2716, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.4354, "possession_lost": 2.9425, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9357, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6096, "fouls_drawn": 0.2716, "blocks": 0.4134, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9694, "total_progression": 45.3871, "progressive_carries": 1.089, "key_pass": 0.1418, "shots_off_target": 0.3635 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0073, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4111, "tackles": 0.6408, "tackles_won": 0.3696, "clearances": 1.7497, "aerial_won": 1.173, "total_shots": 0.3613, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 28.75, "total_pass": 15.5377, "accurate_pass": 12.8668, "duels_won": 4.2175, "total_long_balls": 0.7107, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1962, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5205, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8626, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0172, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0043, "crosses_total": 0.2686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.4354, "possession_lost": 2.9425, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9349, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.9357, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6082, "fouls_drawn": 0.2721, "blocks": 0.4134, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0573, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.9694, "total_progression": 45.3871, "progressive_carries": 1.089, "key_pass": 0.1418, "shots_off_target": 0.3635 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3194, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.8 to 14.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2086, "tackles": 0.3252, "tackles_won": 0.1875, "clearances": 0.8879, "aerial_won": 0.5952, "total_shots": 0.1845, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.3606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0996, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3236, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9898, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5394, "crosses_total": 0.1363, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8919, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4893, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4748, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3086, "fouls_drawn": 0.1381, "blocks": 0.2098, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5365, "total_progression": 23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.1845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.59, "projection_minutes": 28.75, "minutes_scale": 0.5074, "appearance_probability": 0.238 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2086, "tackles": 0.3252, "tackles_won": 0.1875, "clearances": 0.8879, "aerial_won": 0.5952, "total_shots": 0.1845, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.3606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0996, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3236, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9898, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5394, "crosses_total": 0.1363, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8919, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4893, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4748, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3086, "fouls_drawn": 0.1381, "blocks": 0.2098, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5365, "total_progression": 23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.1845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2086, "tackles": 0.3252, "tackles_won": 0.1875, "clearances": 0.8879, "aerial_won": 0.5952, "total_shots": 0.1845, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.3606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0996, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3236, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9898, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5394, "crosses_total": 0.1363, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8919, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4893, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4748, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3086, "fouls_drawn": 0.1381, "blocks": 0.2098, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5365, "total_progression": 23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.1845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.238, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2086, "tackles": 0.3252, "tackles_won": 0.1875, "clearances": 0.8879, "aerial_won": 0.5952, "total_shots": 0.1845, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 14.59, "total_pass": 7.8844, "accurate_pass": 6.5291, "duels_won": 2.1401, "total_long_balls": 0.3606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0996, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3236, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.9898, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5608, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5394, "crosses_total": 0.1363, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8919, "possession_lost": 1.4931, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4893, "aerial_lost": 2.4671, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4748, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3086, "fouls_drawn": 0.1381, "blocks": 0.2098, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5365, "total_progression": 23.031, "progressive_carries": 0.5526, "key_pass": 0.072, "shots_off_target": 0.1845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.238, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.59, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1580, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Lutsharel Geertruida": { "player_id": 856739, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 185, "market_value": 22000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2378, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "expected_assists": 0.016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023970, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0062, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024011, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "expected_assists": 0.069, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025197, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025158, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2137, "combined_rank_score": 806.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1168.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7082, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lutsharel Geertruida", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nosirzhon Abdusalomov", "ranking": 2132 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Ariel Silva", "ranking": 2133 }, { "player_name": "Tjay De Barr", "ranking": 2134 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Fernández", "ranking": 2135 }, { "player_name": "Franco Bechtholdt", "ranking": 2136 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vlatko Stojanovski", "ranking": 2138 }, { "player_name": "Islom Tukhtakhuzhaev", "ranking": 2139 }, { "player_name": "Juan Figueroa", "ranking": 2140 }, { "player_name": "Kaito Taniguchi", "ranking": 2141 }, { "player_name": "Seok-jun Hong", "ranking": 2142 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.415030018156667, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3370468190071212, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0066, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (28 historical appearances) to 14.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.34)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3923, "tackles": 0.7618, "tackles_won": 0.4706, "clearances": 0.9563, "aerial_won": 0.2892, "total_shots": 0.1408, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 24.31, "total_pass": 13.9399, "accurate_pass": 11.8226, "duels_won": 1.4719, "total_long_balls": 1.0584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3312, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4098, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0811, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5301, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7415, "crosses_total": 0.1531, "crosses_accurate": 0.1531, "touches": 19.0983, "possession_lost": 2.6698, "dispossessed": 0.094, "duels_lost": 0.9308, "aerial_lost": 0.3389, "total_contest": 0.0932, "won_contest": 0.0932, "ball_recovery": 1.7359, "challenges_lost": 0.26, "fouls": 0.2379, "fouls_drawn": 0.1106, "blocks": 0.0417, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0442, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.0491, "big_chances_created": 0.1801, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 3.9239, "total_progression": 2.2715, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4439, "shots_off_target": 0.0917 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 55.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 19.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 2.0, "aerialWon": 0.5208, "totalClearance_p90": 2.1415, "totalTackle": 1.4613, "totalPass": 33.0851 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3922939896583557, "model_output": 0.3923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.446 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0183, "total": 0.3923, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.734515 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.028309 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.027739 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.027516 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.026988 } ], "others_margin": -0.045686 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.7617605924606323, "model_output": 0.7618, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7167 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0741, "total": 0.7618, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.721986 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.033484 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.022302 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.020755 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.019672 } ], "others_margin": 0.102414 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4706212878227234, "model_output": 0.4706, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4171 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0284, "total": 0.4706, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.669912 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042822 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027516 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.02731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.023442 } ], "others_margin": 0.062185 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9563068747520447, "model_output": 0.9563, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0534 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2175 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0692 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0631 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.9563, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.90373 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.169087 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.078889 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.065508 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063761 } ], "others_margin": -0.002484 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.28923362493515015, "model_output": 0.2892, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8063 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1696 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0287 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0397, "total": 0.2892, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.875649 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.348847 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.095796 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.081068 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.034057 } ], "others_margin": -0.128656 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1407906413078308, "model_output": 0.1408, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2646 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.008 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0519, "total": 0.1408, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.264571 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007963 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.006013 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.00596 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.005773 } ], "others_margin": -0.05198 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708157062530518, "model_output": 6.7082, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0225, "total": 6.7082, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.013724 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011027 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010246 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010189 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009345 } ], "others_margin": -0.022444 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3949, "tackles": 0.7668, "tackles_won": 0.4737, "clearances": 0.9626, "aerial_won": 0.2911, "total_shots": 0.1417, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 24.31, "total_pass": 14.0319, "accurate_pass": 11.9006, "duels_won": 1.4816, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3334, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4521, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.1212, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7794, "crosses_total": 0.1541, "crosses_accurate": 0.1541, "touches": 19.2243, "possession_lost": 2.6874, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.9369, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0938, "won_contest": 0.0938, "ball_recovery": 1.7474, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.2395, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.042, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0445, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "shots_on_target": 0.0494, "big_chances_created": 0.1813, "xgot": 0.0145, "ball_carries": 3.9498, "total_progression": 2.2865, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4468, "shots_off_target": 0.0923 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 22000000, "quality_factor": 0.6503, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.3 to 14.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2342, "tackles": 0.4547, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.084, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.5556, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0556, "won_contest": 0.0556, "ball_recovery": 1.0362, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.142, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.0249, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0547, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.42, "projection_minutes": 24.31, "minutes_scale": 0.593, "appearance_probability": 0.337 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2342, "tackles": 0.4547, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.084, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.5556, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0556, "won_contest": 0.0556, "ball_recovery": 1.0362, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.142, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.0249, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0547, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2342, "tackles": 0.4547, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.084, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.5556, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0556, "won_contest": 0.0556, "ball_recovery": 1.0362, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.142, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0547, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.337, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2342, "tackles": 0.4547, "tackles_won": 0.2809, "clearances": 0.5708, "aerial_won": 0.1726, "total_shots": 0.084, "rating": 6.7082, "minutes": 14.42, "total_pass": 8.3205, "accurate_pass": 7.0567, "duels_won": 0.8785, "total_long_balls": 0.6317, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1977, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8259, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6297, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.427, "crosses_total": 0.0914, "crosses_accurate": 0.0914, "touches": 11.3994, "possession_lost": 1.5935, "dispossessed": 0.0946, "duels_lost": 0.5556, "aerial_lost": 0.3411, "total_contest": 0.0556, "won_contest": 0.0556, "ball_recovery": 1.0362, "challenges_lost": 0.2617, "fouls": 0.142, "fouls_drawn": 0.066, "blocks": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0264, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "shots_on_target": 0.0293, "big_chances_created": 0.1075, "xgot": 0.0086, "ball_carries": 2.3421, "total_progression": 1.3558, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2649, "shots_off_target": 0.0547, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.337, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.42, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2137, "fifa_rank": 1168.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Dayann Methalie": { "player_id": 1894003, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 186, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.604, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 44, "duels_won": 8, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 29, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 71, "possession_lost": 8.8701, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 140, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0269, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3208, "combined_rank_score": 1161.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2240.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.604, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dayann Methalie", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Affengruber", "ranking": 3203 }, { "player_name": "Kike Salas", "ranking": 3204 }, { "player_name": "Franck Honorat", "ranking": 3205 }, { "player_name": "Djibril Sow", "ranking": 3206 }, { "player_name": "Pepelu", "ranking": 3207 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Robin Gosens", "ranking": 3209 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Núñez", "ranking": 3210 }, { "player_name": "Marvin Schwäbe", "ranking": 3211 }, { "player_name": "Moi Gómez", "ranking": 3212 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Henrichs", "ranking": 3213 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.312, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.98875332766825, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5449433330758295, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0473, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (1 historical appearances) to 23.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.54)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.388, "expected_assists": 0.0276, "assists": 0.0534, "assist_rate": 0.0534, "expected_goals": 0.0319, "goals": 0.0347, "goal_rate": 0.0347, "shots_on_target": 0.1226, "total_shots": 0.2675, "rating": 6.604, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 39.0, "accurate_pass": 35.0, "duels_won": 6.0, "total_long_balls": 2.0, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.0, "crosses_total": 1.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.0, "possession_lost": 7.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.0, "aerial_won": 2.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "tackles": 1.0, "clearances": 2.0, "total_contest": 3.0, "won_contest": 3.0, "challenges_lost": 2.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.0, "total_progression": 110.5955, "progressive_carries": 2.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1449 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 5.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.0, "creative_index": 0.0054, "expectedGoals": 0.0269, "expectedAssists": 0.0089, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3880395293235779, "model_output": 0.388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3554 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0236 } ], "others": -0.0589, "total": 0.388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.512516 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.096325 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.083959 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.059511 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.051435 } ], "others_margin": -0.14111 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.027637973427772522, "model_output": 0.0276, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0363 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0022 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 0.0276, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549445 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.237557 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.124663 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.061855 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.059346 } ], "others_margin": -0.223363 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.05344793200492859, "model_output": 0.0534, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": -0.0111, "total": 0.0534, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.293324 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.098491 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.093762 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.082693 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.072297 } ], "others_margin": -0.188444 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03189263492822647, "model_output": 0.0319, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0055 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0049 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0034 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 0.0319, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.5342 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.260302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.137205 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.123897 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.08524 } ], "others_margin": -0.192412 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03469051420688629, "model_output": 0.0347, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0042 } ], "others": -0.005, "total": 0.0347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.391008 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.161911 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.139874 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.106129 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.100031 } ], "others_margin": -0.135923 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12256024777889252, "model_output": 0.1226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.134 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0065 } ], "others": -0.0181, "total": 0.1226, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533513 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.187567 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.144811 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.076762 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045378 } ], "others_margin": -0.137606 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.26744163036346436, "model_output": 0.2674, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4174 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0726 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0502 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0372 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0297 } ], "others": -0.1904, "total": 0.2674, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.417445 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.072603 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050235 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.037177 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029724 } ], "others_margin": -0.190193 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.604025363922119, "model_output": 6.604, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0697 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": -0.1094, "total": 6.604, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071405 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.069713 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038957 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.017805 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01562 } ], "others_margin": -0.10926 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0473, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4064, "expected_assists": 0.0289, "assists": 0.056, "assist_rate": 0.056, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.1284, "total_shots": 0.2802, "rating": 6.604, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 40.8447, "accurate_pass": 36.6555, "duels_won": 6.2838, "total_long_balls": 2.0946, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0946, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9933, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6622, "crosses_total": 1.0473, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 58.6488, "possession_lost": 7.3311, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1892, "aerial_won": 2.0946, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.0473, "tackles": 1.0473, "clearances": 2.0946, "total_contest": 3.1419, "won_contest": 3.1419, "challenges_lost": 2.0946, "fouls": 1.0473, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.7095, "total_progression": 115.8267, "progressive_carries": 2.0946, "shots_off_target": 0.1518 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0473, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 23.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4917, "expected_assists": 0.035, "assists": 0.0678, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0.3391, "rating": 6.604, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 49.4194, "accurate_pass": 44.3507, "duels_won": 7.603, "total_long_balls": 2.5343, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5343, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1448, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7403, "crosses_total": 1.2672, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.9612, "possession_lost": 8.8701, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.0687, "aerial_won": 2.5343, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2672, "tackles": 1.2672, "clearances": 2.5343, "total_contest": 3.8015, "won_contest": 3.8015, "challenges_lost": 2.0946, "fouls": 1.2672, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.0075, "total_progression": 140.1427, "progressive_carries": 2.5343, "shots_off_target": 0.1837, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.99, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2099, "appearance_probability": 0.545 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4917, "expected_assists": 0.035, "assists": 0.0678, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goals": 0.0439, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "shots_on_target": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0.3391, "rating": 6.604, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 49.4194, "accurate_pass": 44.3507, "duels_won": 7.603, "total_long_balls": 2.5343, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5343, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1448, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7403, "crosses_total": 1.2672, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.9612, "possession_lost": 8.8701, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.0687, "aerial_won": 2.5343, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2672, "tackles": 1.2672, "clearances": 2.5343, "total_contest": 3.8015, "won_contest": 3.8015, "challenges_lost": 2.0946, "fouls": 1.2672, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.0075, "total_progression": 140.1427, "progressive_carries": 2.5343, "shots_off_target": 0.1837, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4917, "expected_assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0.3391, "rating": 6.604, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 49.4194, "accurate_pass": 44.3507, "duels_won": 7.603, "total_long_balls": 2.5343, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5343, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1448, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7403, "crosses_total": 1.2672, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.9612, "possession_lost": 8.8701, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.0687, "aerial_won": 2.5343, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2672, "tackles": 1.2672, "clearances": 2.5343, "total_contest": 3.8015, "won_contest": 3.8015, "challenges_lost": 2.0946, "fouls": 1.2672, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.0075, "total_progression": 140.1427, "progressive_carries": 2.5343, "shots_off_target": 0.1837, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.545, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4917, "expected_assists": 0.035, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0.3391, "rating": 6.604, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 49.4194, "accurate_pass": 44.3507, "duels_won": 7.603, "total_long_balls": 2.5343, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5343, "total_own_half_passes": 29.1448, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.6104, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.2746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.7403, "crosses_total": 1.2672, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 70.9612, "possession_lost": 8.8701, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.0687, "aerial_won": 2.5343, "aerial_lost": 1.0473, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.2672, "tackles": 1.2672, "clearances": 2.5343, "total_contest": 3.8015, "won_contest": 3.8015, "challenges_lost": 2.0946, "fouls": 1.2672, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 19.0075, "total_progression": 140.1427, "progressive_carries": 2.5343, "shots_off_target": 0.1837, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3208, "fifa_rank": 2240.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Chris Rigg": { "player_id": 1394089, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 177, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1091, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0986, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "expected_assists": 0.1449, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1821, "expected_assists": 0.5641, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3744, "combined_rank_score": 1739.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 784.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 18.0, "fifa_rank": 2694.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6417, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chris Rigg", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mislav Oršić", "ranking": 3739 }, { "player_name": "Visar Musliu", "ranking": 3740 }, { "player_name": "Christian Walton", "ranking": 3741 }, { "player_name": "Neal Maupay", "ranking": 3742 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Gnonto", "ranking": 3743 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 3745 }, { "player_name": "Gift Links", "ranking": 3746 }, { "player_name": "Colin Coosemans", "ranking": 3747 }, { "player_name": "Davy Roef", "ranking": 3748 }, { "player_name": "Iván Balliu", "ranking": 3749 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 20, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.711, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0098, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 10.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (20 historical appearances) to 15.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 10.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3596, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0406, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1481, "total_shots": 0.3517, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1716, "accurate_pass": 1.4131, "duels_won": 0.1755, "total_long_balls": 0.2218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1199, "total_own_half_passes": 0.6566, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.3595, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0537, "crosses_total": 0.2065, "crosses_accurate": 0.0866, "touches": 3.2796, "possession_lost": 1.2449, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5369, "aerial_won": 0.1019, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1199, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0736, "total_contest": 0.1199, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.417, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.175, "total_progression": 6.1225, "progressive_carries": 0.4437, "shots_off_target": 0.2036 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.156, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1326, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1127, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0958, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0815, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0692, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0589, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.05, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0425, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0361, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.5306, "creative_index": 0.1885, "expectedGoals": 0.0366, "expectedAssists": 0.0521, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2007 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3596242070198059, "model_output": 0.3596, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3936 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.059, "total": 0.3596, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587175 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.082074 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.073008 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.050203 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.042662 } ], "others_margin": -0.152081 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.027861986309289932, "model_output": 0.0279, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0015 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0013 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.0279, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.608264 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.146576 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.080014 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042448 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.036761 } ], "others_margin": -0.210382 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.040563005954027176, "model_output": 0.0406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.299093 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.11889 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.118491 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.109718 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.078393 } ], "others_margin": -0.174696 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03965533524751663, "model_output": 0.0397, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0016 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.0397, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.643666 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.107496 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.046513 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043382 } ], "others_margin": 0.024509 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03879848122596741, "model_output": 0.0388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.0388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.644106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.160266 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.099916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078285 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.068525 } ], "others_margin": -0.008911 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14806294441223145, "model_output": 0.1481, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 0.1481, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.573619 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27359 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.086728 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033024 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.027023 } ], "others_margin": 0.144857 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3516359329223633, "model_output": 0.3516, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0369, "total": 0.3516, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.378932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.207561 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046507 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.021439 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021367 } ], "others_margin": 0.036978 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.641719341278076, "model_output": 6.6417, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 6.6417, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052092 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030788 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017803 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016639 } ], "others_margin": -0.028934 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1495, "total_shots": 0.3551, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1211, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0743, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0098, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0409, "assist_rate": 0.0409, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "total_shots": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2081, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1209, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.115, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 10.3 to 15.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0614, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.8, "projection_minutes": 10.35, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.711 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0614, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.711 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.06, "after": 0.0425 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0421, "after": 0.0298 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3744, "fifa_rank": 2694.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "scorer_weight": 0.042, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0306, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "appearance_weight": 0.711, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "provider_weight": 0.036, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0455, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "appearance_weight": 0.711, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Malick Fofana": { "player_id": 1195784, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 169, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3875, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2993, "combined_rank_score": 994.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.673, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Malick Fofana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Alí Gutiérrez", "ranking": 2988 }, { "player_name": "Artem Potapov", "ranking": 2989 }, { "player_name": "Jayce Olivero", "ranking": 2990 }, { "player_name": "Felix Oberwaditzer", "ranking": 2991 }, { "player_name": "Kieran Tierney", "ranking": 2992 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kai Mauro", "ranking": 2994 }, { "player_name": "Rubén García", "ranking": 2995 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Mirković", "ranking": 2996 }, { "player_name": "Alvaro Abarzua", "ranking": 2997 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Salomoni", "ranking": 2998 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37159379857936, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6077997181172436, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0384, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 26.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0634, "goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.6759, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "key_pass": 0.2538, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 5.5053, "accurate_pass": 4.3391, "duels_won": 1.0583, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1079, "crosses_total": 1.6608, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4402, "possession_lost": 4.2653, "dispossessed": 1.0496, "duels_lost": 1.6608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6696, "won_contest": 0.6696, "ball_recovery": 0.7775, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.3887, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7775, "xgot": 0.0672, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9436, "total_progression": 44.7228, "progressive_carries": 1.447, "shots_off_target": 0.3947 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1506, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 3.4966, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.1079, "accuratePass": 4.3392, "totalShots": 1.1662 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06335057318210602, "model_output": 0.0634, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.0634, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.62334 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.125558 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.076691 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.06254 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049072 } ], "others_margin": -0.332271 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06603369861841202, "model_output": 0.066, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0946 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.066, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.624374 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.193595 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.11821 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.092113 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.084256 } ], "others_margin": -0.182691 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2812325954437256, "model_output": 0.2812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.222 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0306, "total": 0.2812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533518 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.068053 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.044302 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038303 } ], "others_margin": -0.103314 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6759392023086548, "model_output": 0.6759, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5531 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0932 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0436 } ], "others": -0.1052, "total": 0.6759, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553127 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093244 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.067605 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.062534 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.043644 } ], "others_margin": -0.105113 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.020170215517282486, "model_output": 0.0202, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 0.0202, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437054 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.294743 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.152802 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.080727 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.071791 } ], "others_margin": -0.121976 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2538151443004608, "model_output": 0.2538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 0.2538, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597933 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086859 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.082655 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064001 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.055587 } ], "others_margin": -0.089556 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.672970294952393, "model_output": 6.673, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0617 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0296, "total": 6.673, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061655 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.028649 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018726 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014312 } ], "others_margin": -0.029657 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0384, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0686, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "shots_on_target": 0.292, "total_shots": 0.7019, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "key_pass": 0.2636, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 5.7167, "accurate_pass": 4.5057, "duels_won": 1.0989, "total_long_balls": 0.3431, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3431, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2272, "crosses_total": 1.7246, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8795, "possession_lost": 4.4291, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 1.7246, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6953, "won_contest": 0.6953, "ball_recovery": 0.8074, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8074, "xgot": 0.0698, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1334, "total_progression": 46.4402, "progressive_carries": 1.5026, "shots_off_target": 0.4099 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0384, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 20.47, "minutes_scale": 1.2883, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0848, "after": 0.0513 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0269, "after": 0.0163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2993, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "scorer_weight": 0.0527, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0384, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.013, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0165, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Chemsdine Talbi": { "player_id": 1142675, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 175, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0494, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0941, "expected_assists": 0.1676, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1145, "expected_assists": 0.3326, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023970, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025197, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3150, "combined_rank_score": 1116.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 790.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6286, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1443.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6223, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 3145 }, { "player_name": "Ao Tanaka", "ranking": 3146 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Vieira", "ranking": 3147 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 3148 }, { "player_name": "Beto", "ranking": 3149 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 }, { "player_name": "Michal Sadílek", "ranking": 3152 }, { "player_name": "Tammy Abraham", "ranking": 3153 }, { "player_name": "Rafa Marín", "ranking": 3154 }, { "player_name": "Jake O'Brien", "ranking": 3155 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.737, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 32.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (29 historical appearances) to 29.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 32.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.0753, "goal_rate": 0.0753, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.5131, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3391, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.3397, "accurate_pass": 6.7158, "duels_won": 0.3199, "total_long_balls": 0.4217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2984, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0745, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6383, "crosses_total": 1.402, "crosses_accurate": 0.1401, "touches": 12.1242, "possession_lost": 4.3709, "dispossessed": 0.1706, "duels_lost": 1.139, "aerial_lost": 0.1152, "total_contest": 0.2812, "won_contest": 0.0751, "ball_recovery": 1.2749, "challenges_lost": 0.2984, "fouls": 0.3486, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0644, "tackles_won": 0.1691, "tackles": 0.1691, "clearances": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0243, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.1906, "ball_carries": 4.941, "total_progression": 22.2227, "progressive_carries": 0.8436, "shots_off_target": 0.2941 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.06, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.2081, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.784, "accuratePass": 11.1479, "totalShots": 0.7538 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06037728860974312, "model_output": 0.0604, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 0.0604, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.188073 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.08476 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.038486 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.032726 } ], "others_margin": -0.243972 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07527811825275421, "model_output": 0.0753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.466363 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.172317 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.078577 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.05206 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035774 } ], "others_margin": -0.19061 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21896347403526306, "model_output": 0.219, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2055 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 0.219, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087016 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.075217 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.075173 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.057931 } ], "others_margin": -0.119412 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5130980610847473, "model_output": 0.5131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4806 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1407 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.02 } ], "others": -0.1635, "total": 0.5131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480649 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.14068 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.039966 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020784 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.020016 } ], "others_margin": -0.163514 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.032875481992959976, "model_output": 0.0329, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 0.0329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.361898 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090473 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.06704 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "margin": -0.059445 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048899 } ], "others_margin": -0.042817 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3390645384788513, "model_output": 0.3391, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2729 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.3391, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.518928 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071929 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062492 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.040261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038228 } ], "others_margin": -0.031623 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622313499450684, "model_output": 6.6223, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0754 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0315, "total": 6.6223, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075366 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022348 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012657 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012574 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010833 } ], "others_margin": -0.031383 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.2205, "total_shots": 0.5166, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.3414, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.3964, "accurate_pass": 6.7615, "duels_won": 0.3221, "total_long_balls": 0.4246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3004, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.663, "crosses_total": 1.4115, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 12.2066, "possession_lost": 4.4006, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.1467, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.2831, "won_contest": 0.0756, "ball_recovery": 1.2836, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.351, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0648, "tackles_won": 0.1702, "tackles": 0.1702, "clearances": 0.2062, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0245, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.1919, "ball_carries": 4.9746, "total_progression": 22.3738, "progressive_carries": 0.8493, "shots_off_target": 0.2961 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0026)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.2199, "total_shots": 0.5153, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.3414, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.3964, "accurate_pass": 6.7615, "duels_won": 0.3221, "total_long_balls": 0.4246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3004, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.663, "crosses_total": 1.4132, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 12.2066, "possession_lost": 4.4006, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.1467, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.2831, "won_contest": 0.0756, "ball_recovery": 1.2836, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.3519, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0646, "tackles_won": 0.1698, "tackles": 0.1702, "clearances": 0.2062, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0245, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 4.9746, "total_progression": 22.3738, "progressive_carries": 0.8493, "shots_off_target": 0.2961 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0026, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2764, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.9 to 29.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goals": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0359, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.38, "projection_minutes": 24.88, "minutes_scale": 1.1809, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goals": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0359, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0359, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0718, "after": 0.0527 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0391, "after": 0.0287 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3150, "fifa_rank": 1443.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "scorer_weight": 0.0603, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.044, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.023, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.029, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Chemsdine Talbi": { "player_id": 1142675, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 175, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0494, "expected_assists": 0.0375, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023951, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0941, "expected_assists": 0.1676, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1145, "expected_assists": 0.3326, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023970, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025197, "match_date": "2026-02-11", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3150, "combined_rank_score": 1116.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 790.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6286, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1443.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6223, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 3145 }, { "player_name": "Ao Tanaka", "ranking": 3146 }, { "player_name": "Fábio Vieira", "ranking": 3147 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 3148 }, { "player_name": "Beto", "ranking": 3149 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 }, { "player_name": "Michal Sadílek", "ranking": 3152 }, { "player_name": "Tammy Abraham", "ranking": 3153 }, { "player_name": "Rafa Marín", "ranking": 3154 }, { "player_name": "Jake O'Brien", "ranking": 3155 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.754, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.754, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.737, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 32.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0267 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (29 historical appearances) to 29.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.74); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 32.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.0753, "goal_rate": 0.0753, "shots_on_target": 0.219, "total_shots": 0.5131, "expected_assists": 0.0329, "key_pass": 0.3391, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.3397, "accurate_pass": 6.7158, "duels_won": 0.3199, "total_long_balls": 0.4217, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2984, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0745, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6383, "crosses_total": 1.402, "crosses_accurate": 0.1401, "touches": 12.1242, "possession_lost": 4.3709, "dispossessed": 0.1706, "duels_lost": 1.139, "aerial_lost": 0.1152, "total_contest": 0.2812, "won_contest": 0.0751, "ball_recovery": 1.2749, "challenges_lost": 0.2984, "fouls": 0.3486, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0644, "tackles_won": 0.1691, "tackles": 0.1691, "clearances": 0.2048, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0243, "xgot": 0.0302, "offsides": 0.1906, "ball_carries": 4.941, "total_progression": 22.2227, "progressive_carries": 0.8436, "shots_off_target": 0.2941 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1514, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1287, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 79.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1094, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.06, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.2081, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.784, "accuratePass": 11.1479, "totalShots": 0.7538 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06037728860974312, "model_output": 0.0604, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0073 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0167, "total": 0.0604, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.604447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.188073 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.08476 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.038486 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.032726 } ], "others_margin": -0.243972 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07527811825275421, "model_output": 0.0753, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0159, "total": 0.0753, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.466363 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.172317 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.078577 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.05206 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.035774 } ], "others_margin": -0.19061 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21896347403526306, "model_output": 0.219, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2055 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0276 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0278, "total": 0.219, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087016 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.075217 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.075173 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.057931 } ], "others_margin": -0.119412 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5130980610847473, "model_output": 0.5131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4806 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1407 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.02 } ], "others": -0.1635, "total": 0.5131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.480649 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.14068 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.039966 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020784 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.020016 } ], "others_margin": -0.163514 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.032875481992959976, "model_output": 0.0329, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "contribution": -0.0022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0014, "total": 0.0329, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.361898 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.090473 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.06704 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "margin": -0.059445 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048899 } ], "others_margin": -0.042817 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3390645384788513, "model_output": 0.3391, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2729 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 0.3391, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.518928 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071929 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062492 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.040261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038228 } ], "others_margin": -0.031623 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.622313499450684, "model_output": 6.6223, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0754 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0315, "total": 6.6223, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.075366 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022348 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012657 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.012574 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010833 } ], "others_margin": -0.031383 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0758, "goal_rate": 0.0758, "shots_on_target": 0.2205, "total_shots": 0.5166, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.3414, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.3964, "accurate_pass": 6.7615, "duels_won": 0.3221, "total_long_balls": 0.4246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3004, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.663, "crosses_total": 1.4115, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 12.2066, "possession_lost": 4.4006, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.1467, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.2831, "won_contest": 0.0756, "ball_recovery": 1.2836, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.351, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0648, "tackles_won": 0.1702, "tackles": 0.1702, "clearances": 0.2062, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0245, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.1919, "ball_carries": 4.9746, "total_progression": 22.3738, "progressive_carries": 0.8493, "shots_off_target": 0.2961 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0026)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0756, "goal_rate": 0.0756, "shots_on_target": 0.2199, "total_shots": 0.5153, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.3414, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 24.88, "total_pass": 8.3964, "accurate_pass": 6.7615, "duels_won": 0.3221, "total_long_balls": 0.4246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3004, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.663, "crosses_total": 1.4132, "crosses_accurate": 0.1411, "touches": 12.2066, "possession_lost": 4.4006, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.1467, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.2831, "won_contest": 0.0756, "ball_recovery": 1.2836, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.3519, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0646, "tackles_won": 0.1698, "tackles": 0.1702, "clearances": 0.2062, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0245, "xgot": 0.0304, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 4.9746, "total_progression": 22.3738, "progressive_carries": 0.8493, "shots_off_target": 0.2961 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0026, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2764, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.9 to 29.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goals": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0359, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 29.38, "projection_minutes": 24.88, "minutes_scale": 1.1809, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goals": 0.0893, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0359, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0359, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0718, "after": 0.0527 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0391, "after": 0.0287 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3150, "fifa_rank": 1443.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "scorer_weight": 0.0603, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.044, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0893, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "total_shots": 0.6094, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "key_pass": 0.4031, "rating": 6.6223, "minutes": 29.38, "total_pass": 9.915, "accurate_pass": 7.9844, "duels_won": 0.3804, "total_long_balls": 0.5014, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3547, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3255, "crosses_total": 1.6688, "crosses_accurate": 0.1666, "touches": 14.4144, "possession_lost": 5.1965, "dispossessed": 0.1718, "duels_lost": 1.3541, "aerial_lost": 0.116, "total_contest": 0.3343, "won_contest": 0.0893, "ball_recovery": 1.5158, "challenges_lost": 0.3004, "fouls": 0.4155, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0763, "tackles_won": 0.2005, "tackles": 0.201, "clearances": 0.2435, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0289, "xgot": 0.0263, "offsides": 0.1932, "ball_carries": 5.8743, "total_progression": 26.4205, "progressive_carries": 1.0029, "shots_off_target": 0.3497, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 29.38, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "finishing_factor": 1.1437, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0281, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.023, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.029, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Chris Rigg": { "player_id": 1394089, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 177, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363255, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363636, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023932, "match_date": "2026-04-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1091, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025030, "match_date": "2026-04-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0986, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0459, "expected_assists": 0.1449, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024021, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1821, "expected_assists": 0.5641, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023996, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3744, "combined_rank_score": 1739.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 784.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 18.0, "fifa_rank": 2694.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6417, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chris Rigg", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mislav Oršić", "ranking": 3739 }, { "player_name": "Visar Musliu", "ranking": 3740 }, { "player_name": "Christian Walton", "ranking": 3741 }, { "player_name": "Neal Maupay", "ranking": 3742 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Gnonto", "ranking": 3743 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 3745 }, { "player_name": "Gift Links", "ranking": 3746 }, { "player_name": "Colin Coosemans", "ranking": 3747 }, { "player_name": "Davy Roef", "ranking": 3748 }, { "player_name": "Iván Balliu", "ranking": 3749 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 20, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.711, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0098, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sunderland", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 10.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (20 historical appearances) to 15.8 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 10.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3596, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "assists": 0.0406, "assist_rate": 0.0406, "expected_goals": 0.0397, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1481, "total_shots": 0.3517, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1716, "accurate_pass": 1.4131, "duels_won": 0.1755, "total_long_balls": 0.2218, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1199, "total_own_half_passes": 0.6566, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.3595, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.515, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0537, "crosses_total": 0.2065, "crosses_accurate": 0.0866, "touches": 3.2796, "possession_lost": 1.2449, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5369, "aerial_won": 0.1019, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1199, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0736, "total_contest": 0.1199, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.417, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0736, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.175, "total_progression": 6.1225, "progressive_carries": 0.4437, "shots_off_target": 0.2036 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.156, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 10.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1326, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1127, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0958, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0815, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 63.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0692, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 82.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0589, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.05, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0425, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0361, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.5306, "creative_index": 0.1885, "expectedGoals": 0.0366, "expectedAssists": 0.0521, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2007 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3596242070198059, "model_output": 0.3596, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3936 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.059, "total": 0.3596, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587175 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.082074 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.073008 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.050203 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.042662 } ], "others_margin": -0.152081 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.027861986309289932, "model_output": 0.0279, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0015 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0013 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.0279, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.608264 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.146576 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.080014 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.042448 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.036761 } ], "others_margin": -0.210382 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.040563005954027176, "model_output": 0.0406, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 0.0406, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.299093 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.11889 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.118491 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.109718 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.078393 } ], "others_margin": -0.174696 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03965533524751663, "model_output": 0.0397, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0016 } ], "others": 0.0011, "total": 0.0397, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.643666 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.137829 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.107496 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.046513 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.043382 } ], "others_margin": 0.024509 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03879848122596741, "model_output": 0.0388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0026 } ], "others": -0.0002, "total": 0.0388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.644106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.160266 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.099916 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078285 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.068525 } ], "others_margin": -0.008911 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.14806294441223145, "model_output": 0.1481, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0043 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 0.1481, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.573619 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27359 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.086728 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033024 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.027023 } ], "others_margin": 0.144857 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3516359329223633, "model_output": 0.3516, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3789 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0214 } ], "others": 0.0369, "total": 0.3516, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.378932 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.207561 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046507 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.021439 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021367 } ], "others_margin": 0.036978 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.641719341278076, "model_output": 6.6417, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0521 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.029, "total": 6.6417, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060894 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.052092 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030788 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017803 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016639 } ], "others_margin": -0.028934 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0098, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1495, "total_shots": 0.3551, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2085, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1211, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0743, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0098, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3631, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "assists": 0.0409, "assist_rate": 0.0409, "expected_goals": 0.04, "goals": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0391, "shots_on_target": 0.1492, "total_shots": 0.3545, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 10.35, "total_pass": 2.1929, "accurate_pass": 1.4269, "duels_won": 0.1772, "total_long_balls": 0.224, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1211, "total_own_half_passes": 0.663, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.363, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5298, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.064, "crosses_total": 0.2081, "crosses_accurate": 0.0874, "touches": 3.3117, "possession_lost": 1.2571, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5422, "aerial_won": 0.1029, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1209, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0743, "total_contest": 0.1211, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0742, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1865, "total_progression": 6.1825, "progressive_carries": 0.448, "shots_off_target": 0.2056 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.115, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Sunderland" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 10.3 to 15.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0614, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.8, "projection_minutes": 10.35, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.711 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0614, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.06, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.711 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.06, "after": 0.0425 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0421, "after": 0.0298 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3744, "fifa_rank": 2694.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "scorer_weight": 0.042, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0306, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "appearance_weight": 0.711, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5446, "expected_assists": 0.0298, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2238, "total_shots": 0.5322, "rating": 6.6417, "minutes": 15.8, "total_pass": 3.2893, "accurate_pass": 2.1404, "duels_won": 0.2658, "total_long_balls": 0.336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1817, "total_own_half_passes": 0.9945, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.5445, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.596, "crosses_total": 0.3122, "crosses_accurate": 0.1311, "touches": 4.9676, "possession_lost": 1.8857, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8133, "aerial_won": 0.1544, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1813, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1115, "total_contest": 0.1817, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4211, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1113, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7798, "total_progression": 9.2737, "progressive_carries": 0.672, "shots_off_target": 0.3084, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.711, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.8, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0292, "assist_rate": 0.0614, "provider_weight": 0.036, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0455, "creation_factor": 1.2096, "appearance_weight": 0.711, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] }, "Malick Fofana": { "player_id": 1195784, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 169, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.009, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3875, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363646, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363260, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2993, "combined_rank_score": 994.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.673, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Malick Fofana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Alí Gutiérrez", "ranking": 2988 }, { "player_name": "Artem Potapov", "ranking": 2989 }, { "player_name": "Jayce Olivero", "ranking": 2990 }, { "player_name": "Felix Oberwaditzer", "ranking": 2991 }, { "player_name": "Kieran Tierney", "ranking": 2992 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kai Mauro", "ranking": 2994 }, { "player_name": "Rubén García", "ranking": 2995 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Mirković", "ranking": 2996 }, { "player_name": "Alvaro Abarzua", "ranking": 2997 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Salomoni", "ranking": 2998 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.438, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37159379857936, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.6077997181172436, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0384, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (3 historical appearances) to 26.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.61)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0634, "goals": 0.066, "goal_rate": 0.066, "shots_on_target": 0.2812, "total_shots": 0.6759, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "key_pass": 0.2538, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 5.5053, "accurate_pass": 4.3391, "duels_won": 1.0583, "total_long_balls": 0.3304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3304, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1079, "crosses_total": 1.6608, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4402, "possession_lost": 4.2653, "dispossessed": 1.0496, "duels_lost": 1.6608, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6696, "won_contest": 0.6696, "ball_recovery": 0.7775, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6113, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.3887, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.7775, "xgot": 0.0672, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.9436, "total_progression": 44.7228, "progressive_carries": 1.447, "shots_off_target": 0.3947 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1506, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 3.4966, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.1079, "accuratePass": 4.3392, "totalShots": 1.1662 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.06335057318210602, "model_output": 0.0634, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0923 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 0.0634, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.62334 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.125558 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.076691 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.06254 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.049072 } ], "others_margin": -0.332271 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.06603369861841202, "model_output": 0.066, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0946 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0133, "total": 0.066, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.624374 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.193595 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.11821 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.092113 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.084256 } ], "others_margin": -0.182691 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2812325954437256, "model_output": 0.2812, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.222 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0306, "total": 0.2812, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533518 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.072 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.068053 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.044302 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.038303 } ], "others_margin": -0.103314 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6759392023086548, "model_output": 0.6759, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5531 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0932 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0436 } ], "others": -0.1052, "total": 0.6759, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553127 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093244 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.067605 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.062534 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.043644 } ], "others_margin": -0.105113 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.020170215517282486, "model_output": 0.0202, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0044 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0021 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 0.0202, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437054 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.294743 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.152802 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.080727 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.071791 } ], "others_margin": -0.121976 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2538151443004608, "model_output": 0.2538, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3033 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0308 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 0.2538, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.597933 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.086859 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.082655 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.064001 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.055587 } ], "others_margin": -0.089556 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.672970294952393, "model_output": 6.673, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0617 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0296, "total": 6.673, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061655 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.028649 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022112 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.018726 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014312 } ], "others_margin": -0.029657 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0384, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0658, "goals": 0.0686, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "shots_on_target": 0.292, "total_shots": 0.7019, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "key_pass": 0.2636, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 20.47, "total_pass": 5.7167, "accurate_pass": 4.5057, "duels_won": 1.0989, "total_long_balls": 0.3431, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3431, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.6309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2272, "crosses_total": 1.7246, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.8795, "possession_lost": 4.4291, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 1.7246, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6953, "won_contest": 0.6953, "ball_recovery": 0.8074, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.6348, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4036, "tackles": 0.4036, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.8074, "xgot": 0.0698, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.1334, "total_progression": 46.4402, "progressive_carries": 1.5026, "shots_off_target": 0.4099 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0384, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.5 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 20.47, "minutes_scale": 1.2883, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0899, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.33 (squad xG sum 1.3328, xG scale 0.9956, xA scale 0.9956, team xA 0.90 = 0.68 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.327, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3328, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9052, "team_expected_assists": 0.9012, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.6792, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9956, "xa_scale": 0.9956, "opponent_lambda": 1.454, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0848, "after": 0.0513 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0269, "after": 0.0163 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2993, "fifa_rank": 1477.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "scorer_weight": 0.0527, "squad_weight_total": 1.3703, "weight_share": 0.0384, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Brian Brobbey", "weight": 0.5316, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5316, "runner_up": "Enzo Le Fée", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2253 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goal_rate": 0.0884, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.9043, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "key_pass": 0.3396, "rating": 6.673, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 7.3649, "accurate_pass": 5.8047, "duels_won": 1.4157, "total_long_balls": 0.442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.442, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6777, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1576, "crosses_total": 2.2218, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.3044, "possession_lost": 5.706, "dispossessed": 1.0899, "duels_lost": 2.2218, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8958, "won_contest": 0.8958, "ball_recovery": 1.0402, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.8178, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.52, "tackles": 0.52, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0402, "xgot": 0.0544, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6134, "total_progression": 59.8291, "progressive_carries": 1.9358, "shots_off_target": 0.5281, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.938, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0492, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "finishing_factor": 1.0267, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0161, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.013, "squad_weight_total": 0.7923, "weight_share": 0.0165, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Enzo Le Fée", "weight": 0.1455, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1455, "runner_up": "Granit Xhaka", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1413, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Brian Brobbey" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.33, "expected_assists": 0.9, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 397, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } }, "Leeds": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "player_id": 372344, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 187, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4411, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.667, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.04, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0353, "finishing_factor": 1.0563, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6033, "expected_assists": 0.046, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.523, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9885, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5559, "expected_assists": 0.0606, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9231, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1268, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.482, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 10, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8165, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2067, "combined_rank_score": 786.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 717.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6857, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 855.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9455, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Antonio Sabando Sanhueza", "ranking": 2062 }, { "player_name": "Lee Kyu-Min", "ranking": 2063 }, { "player_name": "Salem Al Dawsari", "ranking": 2064 }, { "player_name": "Iñaki Williams", "ranking": 2065 }, { "player_name": "Youssef En-Nesyri", "ranking": 2066 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jong-Seok", "ranking": 2068 }, { "player_name": "Ariel Cáceres", "ranking": 2069 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Zelarayán", "ranking": 2070 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 2071 }, { "player_name": "Kaku", "ranking": 2072 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4101, "goals": 0.4357, "goal_rate": 0.4357, "shots_on_target": 1.0379, "total_shots": 2.4608, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.512, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.1817, "accurate_pass": 8.3601, "duels_won": 5.6349, "total_long_balls": 0.1755, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0674, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3296, "crosses_total": 0.1106, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 26.9455, "possession_lost": 10.2593, "dispossessed": 0.3198, "duels_lost": 7.1006, "aerial_lost": 4.4919, "total_contest": 0.8913, "won_contest": 0.2488, "ball_recovery": 2.2591, "challenges_lost": 0.2027, "fouls": 1.5425, "fouls_drawn": 0.8898, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "interceptions": 0.1263, "tackles_won": 0.0189, "tackles": 0.029, "clearances": 1.7597, "blocks": 0.1776, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.921, "xgot": 0.6201, "offsides": 0.8139, "ball_carries": 5.8536, "total_progression": 4.8977, "progressive_carries": 0.6084, "shots_off_target": 1.4228 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.5817, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 11.835, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.2915, "accuratePass": 8.3088, "totalShots": 2.1094 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.4101000428199768, "model_output": 0.4101, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0611 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": 0.0343, "total": 0.4101, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.267869 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.212842 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.070834 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.043525 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040822 } ], "others_margin": 0.087432 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.43569013476371765, "model_output": 0.4357, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0535 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0606 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0275 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0877, "total": 0.4357, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.233323 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.211546 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.081446 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.076825 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.067426 } ], "others_margin": 0.224327 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 1.037925362586975, "model_output": 1.0379, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1846 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0617 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0645 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0645 } ], "others": 0.0666, "total": 1.0379, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.295512 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.078601 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.076123 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.073792 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.06867 } ], "others_margin": 0.066322 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.460771322250366, "model_output": 2.4608, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.6019 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1643 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0863 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0841 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0778 } ], "others": 0.0677, "total": 2.4608, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.601852 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.164294 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.08629 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.084088 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.077788 } ], "others_margin": 0.067752 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.031496837735176086, "model_output": 0.0315, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0164, "total": 0.0315, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.225235 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.157723 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.1296 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.12765 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.105149 } ], "others_margin": -0.418525 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.5120489597320557, "model_output": 0.512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1776 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.045 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0323 } ], "others": -0.1837, "total": 0.512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.233947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054257 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.052363 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050151 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045366 } ], "others_margin": -0.306585 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.94547700881958, "model_output": 6.9455, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0777 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0248 } ], "others": 0.0117, "total": 6.9455, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.077697 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063215 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036881 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.031 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.024774 } ], "others_margin": 0.011751 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4127, "goals": 0.4384, "goal_rate": 0.4384, "shots_on_target": 1.0445, "total_shots": 2.4763, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1113, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5522, "fouls_drawn": 0.8954, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "interceptions": 0.1271, "tackles_won": 0.019, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9268, "xgot": 0.624, "offsides": 0.819, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4318 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4127, "goals": 0.4387, "goal_rate": 0.4387, "shots_on_target": 1.039, "total_shots": 2.4706, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9268, "xgot": 0.624, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4318 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9414, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4763, "after": 2.4706 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.819, "after": 0.8247 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.0445, "after": 1.039 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4127, "goals": 0.4387, "goal_rate": 0.4387, "shots_on_target": 1.039, "total_shots": 2.4708, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9268, "xgot": 0.624, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4318 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4292, "goals": 0.4562, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "shots_on_target": 1.0806, "total_shots": 2.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9639, "xgot": 0.649, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.04, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.04, "skill_edge": -0.0008, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.6941, "defender_skill": 0.6959, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 }, { "player": "Omar Alderete", "market_value": 10600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5697 } ], "xg_override": 0.4292 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4708, "after": 2.5697 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4318, "after": 1.4891 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.039, "after": 1.0806 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.9268, "after": 0.9639 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.624, "after": 0.649 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4387, "after": 0.4562 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.4127, "after": 0.4292 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4292, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0806, "total_shots": 2.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9639, "xgot": 0.649, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.04, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4411, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0806, "total_shots": 2.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9639, "xgot": 0.667, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.04, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0563, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.4292, "after": 0.4411 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4411, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0806, "total_shots": 2.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9639, "xgot": 0.667, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.04, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0563, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2067, "fifa_rank": 855.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4411, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0806, "total_shots": 2.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9639, "xgot": 0.667, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.04, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0563, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3567, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "scorer_weight": 0.4659, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.3145, "finishing_factor": 1.0563, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4411, "goal_rate": 0.4562, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.0806, "total_shots": 2.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.5153, "rating": 6.9455, "minutes": 84.73, "total_pass": 15.2773, "accurate_pass": 8.4128, "duels_won": 5.6704, "total_long_balls": 0.1766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0678, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.9792, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3695, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0026, "touches": 27.1153, "possession_lost": 10.3239, "dispossessed": 0.3218, "duels_lost": 7.1453, "aerial_lost": 4.5202, "total_contest": 0.8969, "won_contest": 0.2504, "ball_recovery": 2.2733, "challenges_lost": 0.204, "fouls": 1.5554, "fouls_drawn": 0.8913, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1259, "tackles_won": 0.0188, "tackles": 0.0292, "clearances": 1.7708, "blocks": 0.1787, "big_chances_created": 0.0055, "big_chances_missed": 0.9639, "xgot": 0.667, "offsides": 0.8247, "ball_carries": 5.8905, "total_progression": 4.9286, "progressive_carries": 0.6122, "shots_off_target": 1.4891, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.04, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3567, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0353, "finishing_factor": 1.0563, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.005, "provider_weight": 0.0287, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0305, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lukas Nmecha": { "player_id": 803185, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 185, "market_value": 9100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.165, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3032, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1521, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0646, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.211, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1664, "expected_assists": 0.1369, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0969, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3968, "expected_assists": 0.5468, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0634, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.142, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3295, "combined_rank_score": 1243.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 711.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6893, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1776.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7304, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Guruzeta", "ranking": 3290 }, { "player_name": "Igor Matanović", "ranking": 3291 }, { "player_name": "Ionuț Andrei Radu", "ranking": 3292 }, { "player_name": "Nobel Mendy", "ranking": 3293 }, { "player_name": "Michael Zetterer", "ranking": 3294 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ruslan Malinovskyi", "ranking": 3296 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Mbaye", "ranking": 3297 }, { "player_name": "Unai Núñez", "ranking": 3298 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Muniz", "ranking": 3299 }, { "player_name": "Raíllo", "ranking": 3300 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.752, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.752, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0003, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 22.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 5.0, "shots_per90": 4.09, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (F_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.01, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 5.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1768, "goals": 0.1912, "goal_rate": 0.1912, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.5319, "expected_assists": 0.059, "key_pass": 0.735, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8641, "accurate_pass": 9.4419, "duels_won": 4.2112, "total_long_balls": 0.6368, "accurate_long_balls": 0.45, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9656, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6757, "crosses_total": 0.7036, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0878, "possession_lost": 9.3317, "dispossessed": 0.9939, "duels_lost": 5.5253, "aerial_lost": 2.9051, "total_contest": 1.0566, "won_contest": 0.6952, "ball_recovery": 1.7689, "challenges_lost": 0.1868, "fouls": 1.1381, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.1147, "interceptions": 0.158, "tackles_won": 0.4671, "tackles": 0.9806, "clearances": 0.302, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4268, "big_chances_missed": 0.4043, "xgot": 0.3249, "offsides": 0.0704, "ball_carries": 6.9545, "total_progression": 23.9475, "progressive_carries": 1.1789, "shots_off_target": 0.975 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1212, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 4.7462, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 3.1309, "accuratePass": 3.992, "totalShots": 0.8438 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1768275946378708, "model_output": 0.1768, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0604 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 0.1768, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.26499 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.181371 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.121828 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.044712 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.04092 } ], "others_margin": -0.075901 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1912102997303009, "model_output": 0.1912, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.1912, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.254179 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.184201 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.126483 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03787 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.035381 } ], "others_margin": -0.004521 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5569489598274231, "model_output": 0.5569, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1807 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0552 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0463 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.035 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0324 } ], "others": 0.0081, "total": 0.5569, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.29009 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.080032 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.07247 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.058439 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.057384 } ], "others_margin": 0.014746 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.5319334268569946, "model_output": 1.5319, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4303 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1844 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.08 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0476 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 1.5319, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.430295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.184378 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.079992 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.049798 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04762 } ], "others_margin": -0.014876 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05899573862552643, "model_output": 0.059, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0037 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.0252, "total": 0.059, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.202668 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.117969 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.099653 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.047029 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.039916 } ], "others_margin": -0.357131 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7349904775619507, "model_output": 0.735, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2232 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0635 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": 0.735, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.286037 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07345 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.052066 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.048472 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.037694 } ], "others_margin": 0.012305 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.730388164520264, "model_output": 6.7304, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0456 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0353, "total": 6.7304, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.045559 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025924 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015098 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01461 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.01351 } ], "others_margin": -0.035211 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.512)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1769, "goals": 0.1913, "goal_rate": 0.1913, "shots_on_target": 0.5571, "total_shots": 1.5324, "expected_assists": 0.059, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7038, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1384, "fouls_drawn": 1.2344, "assists": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.1147, "interceptions": 0.158, "tackles_won": 0.4672, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.4044, "xgot": 0.325, "offsides": 0.0704, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.9753 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9100000, "quality_factor": 0.5118, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1769, "goals": 0.1911, "goal_rate": 0.1911, "shots_on_target": 0.5565, "total_shots": 1.5344, "expected_assists": 0.059, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.119, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.4044, "xgot": 0.325, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.9753 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8189, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.7038, "after": 0.7119 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1769, "goals": 0.1911, "goal_rate": 0.1911, "shots_on_target": 0.5565, "total_shots": 1.5344, "expected_assists": 0.059, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.119, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.4044, "xgot": 0.325, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.9753 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1606, "goals": 0.1735, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "shots_on_target": 0.5051, "total_shots": 1.3928, "expected_assists": 0.059, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.119, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.3671, "xgot": 0.295, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.8853, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "skill_edge": -0.0828, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.5118, "defender_skill": 0.6959, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 }, { "player": "Omar Alderete", "market_value": 10600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5697 } ], "xg_override": 0.1606 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5344, "after": 1.3928 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9753, "after": 0.8853 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5565, "after": 0.5051 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4044, "after": 0.3671 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.325, "after": 0.295 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1911, "after": 0.1735 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1769, "after": 0.1606 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1606, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5051, "total_shots": 1.3928, "expected_assists": 0.059, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assist_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.3671, "xgot": 0.295, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.8853, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.165, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5051, "total_shots": 1.3928, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assist_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.3671, "xgot": 0.3032, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.8853, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.059, "after": 0.0668 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.165, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5051, "total_shots": 1.3928, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assist_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.3671, "xgot": 0.3032, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.8853, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3295, "fifa_rank": 1776.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.165, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5051, "total_shots": 1.3928, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assist_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.3671, "xgot": 0.3032, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.8853, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1521, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1521, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "scorer_weight": 0.1751, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.1182, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.165, "goal_rate": 0.1735, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5051, "total_shots": 1.3928, "expected_assists": 0.0668, "key_pass": 0.7352, "rating": 6.7304, "minutes": 73.7, "total_pass": 13.8683, "accurate_pass": 9.4447, "duels_won": 4.2125, "total_long_balls": 0.637, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4501, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.6777, "crosses_total": 0.7119, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.0956, "possession_lost": 9.3345, "dispossessed": 0.9942, "duels_lost": 5.527, "aerial_lost": 2.906, "total_contest": 1.0569, "won_contest": 0.6954, "ball_recovery": 1.7694, "challenges_lost": 0.1869, "fouls": 1.1372, "fouls_drawn": 1.2375, "assist_rate": 0.119, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1578, "tackles_won": 0.4667, "tackles": 0.9809, "clearances": 0.3021, "blocks": 0.0433, "big_chances_created": 0.4269, "big_chances_missed": 0.3671, "xgot": 0.3032, "offsides": 0.0703, "ball_carries": 6.9566, "total_progression": 23.9547, "progressive_carries": 1.1793, "shots_off_target": 0.8853, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki, Omar Alderete", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1521, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0646, "finishing_factor": 1.0613, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0646, "assist_rate": 0.119, "provider_weight": 0.0835, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0888, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Anton Stach": { "player_id": 889861, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 192, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0835, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1174, "finishing_factor": 1.2218, "creation_factor": 0.9058, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3138, "expected_assists": 0.1578, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.089, "expected_assists": 0.0471, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "expected_assists": 0.08, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4275, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3241, "expected_assists": 0.0968, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0664, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1003, "expected_assists": 0.048, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0561, "expected_assists": 0.0709, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0389, "expected_assists": 0.0447, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2818, "expected_assists": 0.0709, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 837, "combined_rank_score": 400.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 108.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 693.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9553, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Anton Stach", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Khozhimat Erkinov", "ranking": 832 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Sabino", "ranking": 833 }, { "player_name": "Raúl Asencio", "ranking": 834 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Dackers", "ranking": 835 }, { "player_name": "Choi Kang-Min", "ranking": 836 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lautaro Pastrán", "ranking": 838 }, { "player_name": "Marcelo Morales", "ranking": 839 }, { "player_name": "Alesson", "ranking": 840 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Jesus", "ranking": 841 }, { "player_name": "Pedro", "ranking": 842 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0085, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.5, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 2.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 25.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2969, "expected_assists": 0.1094, "assists": 0.0955, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "expected_goals": 0.1496, "goals": 0.1903, "goal_rate": 0.1903, "shots_on_target": 0.4551, "total_shots": 1.4373, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 28.9297, "accurate_pass": 20.5468, "duels_won": 6.648, "total_long_balls": 2.211, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2859, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.137, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4098, "crosses_total": 6.6331, "crosses_accurate": 1.2433, "touches": 52.7973, "possession_lost": 17.8, "dispossessed": 0.6977, "duels_lost": 5.554, "aerial_won": 2.2601, "aerial_lost": 1.3964, "interceptions": 1.493, "tackles_won": 1.2667, "tackles": 2.5754, "clearances": 2.2113, "total_contest": 1.265, "won_contest": 0.5378, "challenges_lost": 1.1752, "fouls": 1.7081, "fouls_drawn": 1.2806, "blocks": 0.3648, "big_chances_created": 0.1357, "big_chances_missed": 0.297, "xgot": 0.0775, "ball_carries": 8.9188, "total_progression": 23.8541, "progressive_carries": 0.6229, "shots_off_target": 0.9822 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 88.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 1.5686, "creative_index": 0.7438, "expectedGoals": 0.153, "expectedAssists": 0.1014, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3806 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.29691481590271, "model_output": 1.2969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.1263 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1388 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1025 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0828 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0597 } ], "others": 0.0662, "total": 1.2969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.133282 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128454 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.085272 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.068358 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.049749 } ], "others_margin": 0.052405 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.10936423391103745, "model_output": 0.1094, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0053 } ], "others": 0.0027, "total": 0.1094, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.139427 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.124471 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.086984 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.065693 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.050973 } ], "others_margin": 0.02437 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.09546904265880585, "model_output": 0.0955, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0103 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0066 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0244, "total": 0.0955, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.113761 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.069479 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06095 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059215 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038519 } ], "others_margin": -0.228471 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.1495981365442276, "model_output": 0.1496, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0125 } ], "others": 0.0074, "total": 0.1496, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.253782 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.18706 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.150917 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.100044 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.091714 } ], "others_margin": 0.050717 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1903172731399536, "model_output": 0.1903, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": 0.0299, "total": 0.1903, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.31505 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.176243 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.163865 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099896 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.068951 } ], "others_margin": 0.171077 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.45507049560546875, "model_output": 0.4551, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0747 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0504 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0478 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0286 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 0.4551, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.207474 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.135279 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.128577 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118432 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062252 } ], "others_margin": -0.041721 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.4372559785842896, "model_output": 1.4373, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2287 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1369 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0896 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0657 } ], "others": 0.0391, "total": 1.4373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.228673 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136893 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.089646 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.066004 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.065744 } ], "others_margin": 0.039124 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.955312252044678, "model_output": 6.9553, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 6.9553, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.088055 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025463 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.016622 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015933 } ], "others_margin": -0.028773 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1103, "assists": 0.0963, "assist_rate": 0.0963, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goals": 0.1919, "goal_rate": 0.1919, "shots_on_target": 0.4589, "total_shots": 1.4495, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6895, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 2.2793, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5057, "tackles_won": 1.2775, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7226, "fouls_drawn": 1.2915, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.2995, "xgot": 0.0782, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 0.9905 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0085, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1103, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goals": 0.1951, "goal_rate": 0.1951, "shots_on_target": 0.4592, "total_shots": 1.4548, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 2.2793, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.2995, "xgot": 0.0782, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 0.9905 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9654, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 6.6895, "after": 6.6581 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2915, "after": 1.3093 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.5057, "after": 1.5211 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.7226, "after": 1.7142 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4495, "after": 1.4548 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1103, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "goals": 0.1951, "goal_rate": 0.1951, "shots_on_target": 0.4592, "total_shots": 1.4548, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 2.2793, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.2995, "xgot": 0.0782, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 0.9905 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1103, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.1569, "goals": 0.2028, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "shots_on_target": 0.4773, "total_shots": 1.5123, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.3113, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 1.0296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "skill_edge": -0.0331, "height_edge": 0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.7484, "defender_skill": 0.8221, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 } ], "xg_override": 0.1569 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 2.2793, "after": 1.4 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4548, "after": 1.5123 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9905, "after": 1.0296 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4592, "after": 0.4773 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2995, "after": 0.3113 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1951, "after": 0.2028 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1509, "after": 0.1569 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1103, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1569, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4773, "total_shots": 1.5123, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.3113, "xgot": 0.0813, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 1.0296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4773, "total_shots": 1.5123, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.3113, "xgot": 0.0835, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 1.0296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2218, "creation_factor": 0.9058 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1103, "after": 0.1249 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4773, "total_shots": 1.5123, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.3113, "xgot": 0.0835, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 1.0296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2218, "creation_factor": 0.9058, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 837, "fifa_rank": 693.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4773, "total_shots": 1.5123, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.3113, "xgot": 0.0835, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 1.0296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2218, "creation_factor": 0.9058, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1489, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "scorer_weight": 0.197, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.1329, "finishing_factor": 1.2218, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3079, "expected_assists": 0.1249, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.2028, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4773, "total_shots": 1.5123, "rating": 6.9553, "minutes": 86.89, "total_pass": 29.1756, "accurate_pass": 20.7214, "duels_won": 6.7045, "total_long_balls": 2.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2968, "total_own_half_passes": 9.0861, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1977, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.0895, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.5238, "crosses_total": 6.6581, "crosses_accurate": 1.2539, "touches": 53.2461, "possession_lost": 17.9513, "dispossessed": 0.7036, "duels_lost": 5.6012, "aerial_won": 1.4, "aerial_lost": 1.4083, "interceptions": 1.5211, "tackles_won": 1.274, "tackles": 2.5973, "clearances": 2.2301, "total_contest": 1.2758, "won_contest": 0.5424, "challenges_lost": 1.1852, "fouls": 1.7142, "fouls_drawn": 1.3093, "blocks": 0.3679, "big_chances_created": 0.1369, "big_chances_missed": 0.3113, "xgot": 0.0835, "ball_carries": 8.9946, "total_progression": 24.0569, "progressive_carries": 0.6282, "shots_off_target": 1.0296, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1489, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1174, "finishing_factor": 1.2218, "creation_factor": 0.9058, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1174, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "provider_weight": 0.1131, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.1203, "creation_factor": 0.9058, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "player_id": 834308, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 181, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 65, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nordi Mukiele", "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0391, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0924, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.9366, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.072, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0309, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1757, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4428, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2835, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 50, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2292, "combined_rank_score": 838.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 1099.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9101, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Christopher Díaz", "ranking": 2287 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Valenzuela", "ranking": 2288 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Calderón", "ranking": 2289 }, { "player_name": "Wesley", "ranking": 2290 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Chukwueze", "ranking": 2291 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sergi Darder", "ranking": 2293 }, { "player_name": "Yangel Herrera", "ranking": 2294 }, { "player_name": "Cris Martínez", "ranking": 2295 }, { "player_name": "Matt Dench", "ranking": 2296 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jun-Jae", "ranking": 2297 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 35, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 35 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8611, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "assists": 0.0766, "assist_rate": 0.0766, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1627, "total_shots": 0.6518, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.357, "accurate_pass": 21.5838, "duels_won": 5.7315, "total_long_balls": 3.4946, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2159, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0779, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5059, "crosses_total": 3.2213, "crosses_accurate": 0.809, "touches": 53.22, "possession_lost": 17.6071, "dispossessed": 0.6309, "duels_lost": 4.2733, "aerial_won": 0.8262, "aerial_lost": 0.817, "interceptions": 1.1287, "tackles_won": 1.0537, "tackles": 2.1268, "clearances": 1.8044, "total_contest": 2.2159, "won_contest": 1.0381, "challenges_lost": 0.9122, "fouls": 0.7356, "fouls_drawn": 1.7403, "blocks": 0.096, "big_chances_created": 0.0955, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 10.9596, "total_progression": 64.0915, "progressive_carries": 1.4668, "shots_off_target": 0.4891 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 50.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.279, "creative_index": 0.2237, "expectedGoals": 0.0116, "expectedAssists": 0.1014, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0293 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8610540628433228, "model_output": 0.8611, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1089 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.1011 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0858 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0572 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0485 } ], "others": -0.158, "total": 0.8611, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115868 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.096735 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.081519 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.055079 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.046514 } ], "others_margin": -0.168433 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08512631803750992, "model_output": 0.0851, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0064 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 0.0851, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.200171 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.097959 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.09113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.058991 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.057582 } ], "others_margin": -0.215983 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07658004760742188, "model_output": 0.0766, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0079 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0072 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0135, "total": 0.0766, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.097485 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.095297 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.088814 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.083287 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.063232 } ], "others_margin": -0.162531 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.03715759515762329, "model_output": 0.0372, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0051 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": 0.0372, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.499731 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.193653 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.150926 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134843 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.115538 } ], "others_margin": -0.107665 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03915607929229736, "model_output": 0.0392, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0044 } ], "others": -0.007, "total": 0.0392, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.360352 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.258065 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.124022 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.105604 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099133 } ], "others_margin": -0.164878 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1626504361629486, "model_output": 0.1627, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0768 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.1627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.223827 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.170736 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12431 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.091247 } ], "others_margin": -0.056952 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6517280340194702, "model_output": 0.6517, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2322 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0467 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0414 } ], "others": -0.0622, "total": 0.6517, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.232247 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105284 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061568 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046675 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.041418 } ], "others_margin": -0.062112 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.91011905670166, "model_output": 6.9101, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0158, "total": 6.9101, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030182 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018319 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.014561 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009394 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.008306 } ], "others_margin": 0.015885 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goals": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.1638, "total_shots": 0.6562, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 0.8318, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.4924 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 26000000, "quality_factor": 0.6858, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "expected_goals": 0.0374, "goals": 0.0394, "goal_rate": 0.0394, "shots_on_target": 0.1638, "total_shots": 0.6562, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 0.8318, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.4924 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goals": 0.0409, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "total_shots": 0.681, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.511, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nordi Mukiele", "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "skill_edge": 0.0417, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.765, "defender_skill": 0.6723, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nordi Mukiele", "market_value": 17100000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6723 } ], "xg_override": 0.0388 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8318, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6562, "after": 0.681 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4924, "after": 0.511 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1638, "after": 0.17 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.0857, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "total_shots": 0.681, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.511, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nordi Mukiele", "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "total_shots": 0.681, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.511, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nordi Mukiele", "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.9366 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0857, "after": 0.097 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "total_shots": 0.681, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.511, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nordi Mukiele", "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.9366, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2292, "fifa_rank": 1099.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "total_shots": 0.681, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.511, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nordi Mukiele", "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0391, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.9366, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0391, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "scorer_weight": 0.0408, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8669, "expected_assists": 0.097, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0399, "goal_rate": 0.0409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.17, "total_shots": 0.681, "rating": 6.9101, "minutes": 83.3, "total_pass": 29.5566, "accurate_pass": 21.7306, "duels_won": 5.7705, "total_long_balls": 3.5184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.16, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1229, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5705, "crosses_total": 3.2432, "crosses_accurate": 0.8145, "touches": 53.5819, "possession_lost": 17.7268, "dispossessed": 0.6352, "duels_lost": 4.3024, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.8226, "interceptions": 1.1364, "tackles_won": 1.0609, "tackles": 2.1413, "clearances": 1.8167, "total_contest": 2.231, "won_contest": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.9184, "fouls": 0.7406, "fouls_drawn": 1.7521, "blocks": 0.0967, "big_chances_created": 0.0961, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 11.0341, "total_progression": 64.5273, "progressive_carries": 1.4768, "shots_off_target": 0.511, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nordi Mukiele", "opponent_faced": "Nordi Mukiele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0391, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0924, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.9366, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0924, "assist_rate": 0.0771, "provider_weight": 0.0909, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0966, "creation_factor": 0.9366, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ao Tanaka": { "player_id": 871886, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 180, "market_value": 16200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0646, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.071, "finishing_factor": 0.9591, "creation_factor": 1.0434, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.048, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1368, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0604, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 47, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0402, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.033, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1113, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3146, "combined_rank_score": 1112.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1780.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8558, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ao Tanaka", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sem Steijn", "ranking": 3141 }, { "player_name": "David Brooks", "ranking": 3142 }, { "player_name": "André Silva", "ranking": 3143 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Valente", "ranking": 3144 }, { "player_name": "Michael Keane", "ranking": 3145 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fábio Vieira", "ranking": 3147 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 3148 }, { "player_name": "Beto", "ranking": 3149 }, { "player_name": "Chemsdine Talbi", "ranking": 3150 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3151 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.755, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 32 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.03, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.835, "expected_assists": 0.0649, "assists": 0.07, "assist_rate": 0.07, "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goals": 0.0669, "goal_rate": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.226, "total_shots": 0.9387, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.0059, "accurate_pass": 31.8436, "duels_won": 2.9514, "total_long_balls": 1.8329, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0596, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0325, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.639, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.9734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2046, "crosses_total": 1.6586, "crosses_accurate": 0.541, "touches": 48.0606, "possession_lost": 7.0171, "dispossessed": 0.3198, "duels_lost": 2.4868, "aerial_won": 0.3838, "aerial_lost": 0.4664, "interceptions": 1.0095, "tackles_won": 0.914, "tackles": 1.533, "clearances": 1.0958, "total_contest": 0.8212, "won_contest": 0.456, "challenges_lost": 0.5613, "fouls": 0.9212, "fouls_drawn": 0.5786, "blocks": 0.0371, "big_chances_created": 0.1472, "big_chances_missed": 0.1626, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 10.8397, "total_progression": 23.2215, "progressive_carries": 0.3507, "shots_off_target": 0.7127 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1508, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1282, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 73.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.109, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.3 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.9438, "creative_index": 0.2193, "expectedGoals": 0.1169, "expectedAssists": 0.0372, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0947 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.834972083568573, "model_output": 0.835, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.138 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0894 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0827 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0735 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0466 } ], "others": -0.0758, "total": 0.835, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.144755 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.083705 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.077151 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.073974 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049898 } ], "others_margin": -0.086978 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.06491981446743011, "model_output": 0.0649, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0103, "total": 0.0649, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.171638 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.131076 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.106108 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.065173 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.050326 } ], "others_margin": -0.146731 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.07003483921289444, "model_output": 0.07, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 0.07, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.099763 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096711 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.082749 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.079133 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.056863 } ], "others_margin": -0.140058 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.07183432579040527, "model_output": 0.0718, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.006 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0052 } ], "others": -0.0249, "total": 0.0718, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.177387 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.168773 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124733 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.056748 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.052548 } ], "others_margin": -0.297525 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0668906420469284, "model_output": 0.0669, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0404, "total": 0.0669, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.108469 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104739 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.100446 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093961 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.075873 } ], "others_margin": -0.472957 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22595751285552979, "model_output": 0.226, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0737 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0567, "total": 0.226, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.258287 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115573 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.077578 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040465 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.031415 } ], "others_margin": -0.223353 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9386701583862305, "model_output": 0.9387, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1477 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.056 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.03 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0283 } ], "others": -0.0998, "total": 0.9387, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.147677 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05601 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041952 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030036 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.028278 } ], "others_margin": -0.099752 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.855798244476318, "model_output": 6.8558, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.033, "total": 6.8558, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032042 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020085 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011909 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010007 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009676 } ], "others_margin": -0.032959 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.592)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0703, "assist_rate": 0.0703, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goals": 0.0671, "goal_rate": 0.0671, "shots_on_target": 0.2267, "total_shots": 0.942, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6644, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 0.3851, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.013, "tackles_won": 0.9172, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9244, "fouls_drawn": 0.5806, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1632, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.7152 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16200000, "quality_factor": 0.5921, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0029)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goals": 0.0669, "goal_rate": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.226, "total_shots": 0.9392, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 0.3851, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1632, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.7152 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0029, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8367, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "expected_goals": 0.0721, "goals": 0.0669, "goal_rate": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.226, "total_shots": 0.9412, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 0.3851, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1632, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.7152 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assists": 0.0701, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "expected_goals": 0.065, "goals": 0.0603, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.8485, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.014, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.6448, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "skill_edge": -0.095, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.6109, "defender_skill": 0.8221, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 } ], "xg_override": 0.065 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3851, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9412, "after": 0.8485 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7152, "after": 0.6448 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.226, "after": 0.2037 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1632, "after": 0.1471 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0721, "after": 0.065 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0669, "after": 0.0603 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.8485, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.014, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.6448, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.8485, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.6448, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9591, "creation_factor": 1.0434 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0651, "after": 0.0737 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.8485, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.6448, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9591, "creation_factor": 1.0434, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3146, "fifa_rank": 1780.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.8485, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.6448, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0646, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9591, "creation_factor": 1.0434, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "scorer_weight": 0.0641, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0432, "finishing_factor": 0.9591, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8379, "expected_assists": 0.0737, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0668, "goal_rate": 0.0603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.8485, "rating": 6.8558, "minutes": 75.3, "total_pass": 36.1319, "accurate_pass": 31.9551, "duels_won": 2.9617, "total_long_balls": 1.8393, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0633, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0991, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.7007, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0328, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2543, "crosses_total": 1.6595, "crosses_accurate": 0.5429, "touches": 48.2288, "possession_lost": 7.0417, "dispossessed": 0.3209, "duels_lost": 2.4955, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.468, "interceptions": 1.01, "tackles_won": 0.9145, "tackles": 1.5384, "clearances": 1.0996, "total_contest": 0.8241, "won_contest": 0.4576, "challenges_lost": 0.5633, "fouls": 0.9217, "fouls_drawn": 0.5789, "blocks": 0.0372, "big_chances_created": 0.1477, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0144, "ball_carries": 10.8776, "total_progression": 23.3028, "progressive_carries": 0.3519, "shots_off_target": 0.6448, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0646, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.071, "finishing_factor": 0.9591, "creation_factor": 1.0434, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.071, "assist_rate": 0.0701, "provider_weight": 0.0769, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0818, "creation_factor": 1.0434, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "player_id": 847097, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 182, "market_value": 33000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0607, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.0693, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0415, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 65, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0268, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0687, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0141, "expected_assists": 0.091, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 58, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 942, "combined_rank_score": 437.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 676.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0071, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ethan Ampadu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kalidou Koulibaly", "ranking": 937 }, { "player_name": "Dragan Ceran", "ranking": 938 }, { "player_name": "Benjamín Berríos", "ranking": 939 }, { "player_name": "Golib Gaybullaev", "ranking": 940 }, { "player_name": "Yannick Carrasco", "ranking": 941 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sadio Mané", "ranking": 943 }, { "player_name": "Josh Brillante", "ranking": 944 }, { "player_name": "Yassine Bounou", "ranking": 945 }, { "player_name": "Steffan Pino", "ranking": 946 }, { "player_name": "Mitchell Duke", "ranking": 947 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0078, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 40 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6476, "expected_assists": 0.0549, "assists": 0.0627, "assist_rate": 0.0627, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0517, "goal_rate": 0.0517, "shots_on_target": 0.1676, "total_shots": 0.7021, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.5806, "accurate_pass": 40.5137, "duels_won": 4.6689, "total_long_balls": 4.149, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8537, "total_own_half_passes": 24.3661, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.2209, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.2145, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2928, "crosses_total": 0.3984, "crosses_accurate": 0.21, "touches": 65.7735, "possession_lost": 12.7606, "dispossessed": 0.3872, "duels_lost": 3.4907, "aerial_won": 1.2513, "aerial_lost": 1.2644, "interceptions": 1.7941, "tackles_won": 1.1979, "tackles": 2.263, "clearances": 2.1505, "total_contest": 0.2697, "won_contest": 0.2313, "challenges_lost": 0.7811, "fouls": 1.1438, "fouls_drawn": 0.9295, "blocks": 0.579, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0429, "xgot": 0.0156, "ball_carries": 13.5135, "total_progression": 32.0664, "progressive_carries": 0.7189, "shots_off_target": 0.5345 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.5339, "creative_index": 0.3621, "expectedGoals": 0.0378, "expectedAssists": 0.0558, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0615 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.647646427154541, "model_output": 0.6476, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1081 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0997 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0382 } ], "others": -0.1039, "total": 0.6476, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115049 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.105646 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.073862 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.050798 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049563 } ], "others_margin": -0.148774 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.05491417646408081, "model_output": 0.0549, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0029 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 0.0549, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.240465 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134515 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.120001 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041962 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.039566 } ], "others_margin": -0.222384 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0626743957400322, "model_output": 0.0627, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0065 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0141, "total": 0.0627, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.121337 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.098408 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.081505 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.031222 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.030299 } ], "others_margin": -0.203887 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.04129233956336975, "model_output": 0.0413, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 0.0413, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.216127 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.167708 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137332 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.122243 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.114877 } ], "others_margin": -0.343538 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05168256536126137, "model_output": 0.0517, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.014 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0069 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.004 } ], "others": -0.0083, "total": 0.0517, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.210927 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.195046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.111779 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.096452 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.06495 } ], "others_margin": -0.14997 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1675548404455185, "model_output": 0.1676, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0714 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0491, "total": 0.1676, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.248952 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.218769 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120641 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.101832 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.046764 } ], "others_margin": -0.257257 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7020360231399536, "model_output": 0.702, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2252 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0542 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0359 } ], "others": -0.1298, "total": 0.702, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.225223 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117551 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054163 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.03905 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.035869 } ], "others_margin": -0.129775 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.007052898406982, "model_output": 7.0071, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0887 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0574 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 7.0071, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.088747 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05744 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026784 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014573 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013646 } ], "others_margin": -0.013862 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0078, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "assists": 0.0632, "assist_rate": 0.0632, "expected_goals": 0.0416, "goals": 0.0521, "goal_rate": 0.0521, "shots_on_target": 0.1689, "total_shots": 0.7076, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4015, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.2611, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8081, "tackles_won": 1.2072, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.1527, "fouls_drawn": 0.9368, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0432, "xgot": 0.0157, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0078, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0416, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.7056, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.2611, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0432, "xgot": 0.0157, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9977, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2072, "after": 1.2004 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0416, "goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0516, "shots_on_target": 0.1673, "total_shots": 0.706, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.2611, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0432, "xgot": 0.0157, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5387 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0422, "goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "shots_on_target": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.7154, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0438, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5459, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "skill_edge": -0.027, "height_edge": 0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.7622, "defender_skill": 0.8221, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8221 } ], "xg_override": 0.0422 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.2611, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.706, "after": 0.7154 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5387, "after": 0.5459 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.7154, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0438, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5459, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.7154, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0438, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5459, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.0693 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0553, "after": 0.0626 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.7154, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0438, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5459, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.0693, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 942, "fifa_rank": 676.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.7154, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0438, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5459, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.0693, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "scorer_weight": 0.0482, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0325, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6527, "expected_assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1695, "total_shots": 0.7154, "rating": 7.0071, "minutes": 89.79, "total_pass": 47.9517, "accurate_pass": 40.8297, "duels_won": 4.7053, "total_long_balls": 4.1814, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8682, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5562, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.3942, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3956, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4355, "crosses_total": 0.4024, "crosses_accurate": 0.2116, "touches": 66.2865, "possession_lost": 12.8601, "dispossessed": 0.3902, "duels_lost": 3.5179, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.2743, "interceptions": 1.8099, "tackles_won": 1.2004, "tackles": 2.2807, "clearances": 2.1673, "total_contest": 0.2718, "won_contest": 0.2331, "challenges_lost": 0.7872, "fouls": 1.156, "fouls_drawn": 0.9374, "blocks": 0.5835, "big_chances_created": 0.0057, "big_chances_missed": 0.0438, "xgot": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 13.6189, "total_progression": 32.3165, "progressive_carries": 0.7245, "shots_off_target": 0.5459, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Noah Sadiki", "opponent_faced": "Noah Sadiki", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0425, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0607, "finishing_factor": 1.1095, "creation_factor": 1.0693, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0607, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "provider_weight": 0.0669, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0712, "creation_factor": 1.0693, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jayden Bogle": { "player_id": 929132, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 178, "market_value": 19200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1661, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2777, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke O'Nien", "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.153, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.094, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 1.035, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0361, "expected_assists": 0.3341, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0731, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2098, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9023, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.2229, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.3104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3244, "combined_rank_score": 1184.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1791.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7535, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 }, { "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking": 3240 }, { "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking": 3241 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 }, { "player_name": "Jean Butez", "ranking": 3246 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Pellegrini", "ranking": 3247 }, { "player_name": "Kevin", "ranking": 3248 }, { "player_name": "Dodô", "ranking": 3249 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.767, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.004, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 157.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1133 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.11, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9295, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "assists": 0.0925, "assist_rate": 0.0925, "expected_goals": 0.1347, "goals": 0.121, "goal_rate": 0.121, "shots_on_target": 0.4039, "total_shots": 1.1435, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 21.9877, "accurate_pass": 15.9458, "duels_won": 4.0525, "total_long_balls": 2.6976, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9806, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5351, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.3975, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4526, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5483, "crosses_total": 1.5565, "crosses_accurate": 0.4113, "touches": 40.2462, "possession_lost": 11.9826, "dispossessed": 0.8683, "duels_lost": 4.5811, "aerial_won": 0.84, "aerial_lost": 0.755, "interceptions": 0.6062, "tackles_won": 1.0669, "tackles": 1.442, "clearances": 1.7654, "total_contest": 1.4992, "won_contest": 0.6014, "challenges_lost": 0.8177, "fouls": 1.2437, "fouls_drawn": 1.1691, "blocks": 0.1564, "big_chances_created": 0.1989, "big_chances_missed": 0.0116, "xgot": 0.2251, "ball_carries": 9.2048, "total_progression": 38.4898, "progressive_carries": 1.1129, "shots_off_target": 0.7396 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 83.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8953, "creative_index": 0.3182, "expectedGoals": 0.1539, "expectedAssists": 0.0889, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3982 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9294583201408386, "model_output": 0.9295, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.122 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0656 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0598 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0476 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0402 } ], "others": -0.0803, "total": 0.9295, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128993 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.067306 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.061512 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.046372 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.039049 } ], "others_margin": -0.08286 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.08687665313482285, "model_output": 0.0869, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0058 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0047 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": -0.019, "total": 0.0869, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.10228 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.059605 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.05307 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.044754 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.041695 } ], "others_margin": -0.199116 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.0924689844250679, "model_output": 0.0925, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.007 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0045 } ], "others": -0.0019, "total": 0.0925, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.091099 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078289 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.077449 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.057852 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.046375 } ], "others_margin": -0.020214 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.13467617332935333, "model_output": 0.1347, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0053 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.005 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0128, "total": 0.1347, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.257199 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105424 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.040184 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038788 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.02791 } ], "others_margin": 0.099294 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.12097066640853882, "model_output": 0.121, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": 0.0065, "total": 0.121, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.18645 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.14686 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.097916 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.097536 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.076055 } ], "others_margin": 0.055218 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.40385037660598755, "model_output": 0.4039, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0462 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0053, "total": 0.4039, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.133372 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.1304 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050766 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.03052 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.024825 } ], "others_margin": 0.013017 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.143499493598938, "model_output": 1.1435, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1467 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0437 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": 0.0071, "total": 1.1435, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146703 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.042303 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.023026 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.022437 } ], "others_margin": 0.007102 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.753481388092041, "model_output": 6.7535, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0322 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0266, "total": 6.7535, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032239 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.024267 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.021485 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013466 } ], "others_margin": -0.026588 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0872, "assists": 0.0928, "assist_rate": 0.0928, "expected_goals": 0.1352, "goals": 0.1215, "goal_rate": 0.1215, "shots_on_target": 0.4055, "total_shots": 1.1481, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5627, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6086, "tackles_won": 1.0712, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2487, "fouls_drawn": 1.1738, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0116, "xgot": 0.226, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.7426 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19200000, "quality_factor": 0.6231, "boost_factor": 1.004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0084)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0872, "assists": 0.092, "assist_rate": 0.092, "expected_goals": 0.1352, "goals": 0.1205, "goal_rate": 0.1205, "shots_on_target": 0.4021, "total_shots": 1.1385, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0116, "xgot": 0.226, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.7426 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0084, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8586, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1738, "after": 1.1851 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1481, "after": 1.1385 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0872, "assists": 0.092, "assist_rate": 0.092, "expected_goals": 0.1352, "goals": 0.1205, "goal_rate": 0.1205, "shots_on_target": 0.4021, "total_shots": 1.1447, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 0.8434, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0116, "xgot": 0.226, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.7426 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0872, "assists": 0.092, "assist_rate": 0.092, "expected_goals": 0.1616, "goals": 0.1441, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "shots_on_target": 0.4808, "total_shots": 1.3687, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0139, "xgot": 0.2702, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.8879, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke O'Nien", "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "skill_edge": 0.1171, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6976, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Luke O'Nien", "market_value": 660000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1616 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1447, "after": 1.3687 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8434, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7426, "after": 0.8879 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4021, "after": 0.4808 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.226, "after": 0.2702 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1352, "after": 0.1616 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1205, "after": 0.1441 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0872, "assist_rate": 0.092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1616, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4808, "total_shots": 1.3687, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0139, "xgot": 0.2702, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.8879, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke O'Nien", "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1661, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4808, "total_shots": 1.3687, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0139, "xgot": 0.2777, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.8879, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke O'Nien", "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 1.035 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0872, "after": 0.0987 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1661, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4808, "total_shots": 1.3687, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0139, "xgot": 0.2777, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.8879, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke O'Nien", "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 1.035, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3244, "fifa_rank": 1791.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1661, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4808, "total_shots": 1.3687, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0139, "xgot": 0.2777, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.8879, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke O'Nien", "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.153, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 1.035, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.153, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "scorer_weight": 0.1524, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.1028, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9332, "expected_assists": 0.0987, "assist_rate": 0.092, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1661, "goal_rate": 0.1441, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4808, "total_shots": 1.3687, "rating": 6.7535, "minutes": 77.27, "total_pass": 22.0757, "accurate_pass": 16.0096, "duels_won": 4.0687, "total_long_balls": 2.7084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9845, "total_own_half_passes": 8.5692, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.4271, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5064, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5825, "crosses_total": 1.5623, "crosses_accurate": 0.4129, "touches": 40.4072, "possession_lost": 12.0305, "dispossessed": 0.8718, "duels_lost": 4.5994, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.758, "interceptions": 0.6077, "tackles_won": 1.0707, "tackles": 1.4478, "clearances": 1.7725, "total_contest": 1.5052, "won_contest": 0.6038, "challenges_lost": 0.821, "fouls": 1.2467, "fouls_drawn": 1.1851, "blocks": 0.157, "big_chances_created": 0.1997, "big_chances_missed": 0.0139, "xgot": 0.2777, "ball_carries": 9.2416, "total_progression": 38.6438, "progressive_carries": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.8879, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Luke O'Nien", "opponent_faced": "Luke O'Nien", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.153, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.094, "finishing_factor": 0.9173, "creation_factor": 1.035, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.094, "assist_rate": 0.092, "provider_weight": 0.1022, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.1087, "creation_factor": 1.035, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "player_id": 1118177, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 193, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 49, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 40, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 75, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1289, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0651, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1209, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0111, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "expected_assists": 0.1612, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 72, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 47, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3979, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 75, "accurate_pass": 66, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0919, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3240, "combined_rank_score": 1184.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 151.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3143, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 2217.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.009, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tarik Muharemović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kristijan Jakić", "ranking": 3235 }, { "player_name": "Afonso Moreira", "ranking": 3236 }, { "player_name": "Largie Ramazani", "ranking": 3237 }, { "player_name": "Zian Flemming", "ranking": 3238 }, { "player_name": "Morata", "ranking": 3239 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pascal Struijk", "ranking": 3241 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Cataldi", "ranking": 3242 }, { "player_name": "Håkon Evjen", "ranking": 3243 }, { "player_name": "Jayden Bogle", "ranking": 3244 }, { "player_name": "Jérémie Boga", "ranking": 3245 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.582, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.582, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0436, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1717, "tackles": 1.2901, "tackles_won": 0.7131, "clearances": 6.8478, "aerial_won": 3.4745, "total_shots": 1.001, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 54.607, "accurate_pass": 46.5451, "duels_won": 6.0378, "total_long_balls": 6.341, "accurate_long_balls": 3.206, "total_own_half_passes": 38.1492, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.6547, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4577, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8903, "crosses_total": 0.1656, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.2728, "possession_lost": 8.7286, "dispossessed": 0.1656, "duels_lost": 4.6075, "aerial_lost": 3.6711, "total_contest": 0.4968, "won_contest": 0.4968, "ball_recovery": 3.5213, "challenges_lost": 0.3604, "fouls": 0.4104, "fouls_drawn": 1.0136, "blocks": 0.8572, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2292, "assist_rate": 0.2292, "expected_goals": 0.1202, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.1408, "big_chances_created": 0.2667, "xgot": 0.0607, "ball_carries": 16.6199, "total_progression": 26.1928, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2292, "shots_off_target": 0.8602 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 7.1908, "aerialWon": 3.5026, "totalClearance_p90": 7.1908, "totalTackle": 1.0248, "totalPass": 54.607 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.17166006565094, "model_output": 1.1717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1013 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0495 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0277 } ], "others": 0.0582, "total": 1.1717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11164 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.050379 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.038113 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.03612 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025226 } ], "others_margin": 0.050943 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2900691032409668, "model_output": 1.2901, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1238 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0911 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0328 } ], "others": -0.0991, "total": 1.2901, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.085067 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.061903 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.038432 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.035185 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.023312 } ], "others_margin": -0.073999 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7130632400512695, "model_output": 0.7131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0669 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.141, "total": 0.7131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075426 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.05137 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.044761 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.041858 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040552 } ], "others_margin": -0.180396 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 6.847822189331055, "model_output": 6.8478, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.8225 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.56 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3765 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3434 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.3506 } ], "others": 0.9434, "total": 6.8478, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.213735 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123136 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.074996 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063819 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.061216 } ], "others_margin": 0.148244 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 3.474534511566162, "model_output": 3.4745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.6882 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2508 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2722 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.2295 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2399 } ], "others": 0.4119, "total": 3.4745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.404114 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.114366 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.110888 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.084814 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.081575 } ], "others_margin": 0.126151 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0010491609573364, "model_output": 1.001, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2521 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0753 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0287 } ], "others": 0.1276, "total": 1.001, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.252063 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075315 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.064044 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.039567 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.028685 } ], "others_margin": 0.127613 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.008976459503174, "model_output": 7.009, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0244 } ], "others": 0.0674, "total": 7.009, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.041063 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034161 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.030341 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.02648 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.024438 } ], "others_margin": 0.067361 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0436, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2227, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7442, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0447, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.1728, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4283, "fouls_drawn": 1.0578, "blocks": 0.8946, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2392, "assist_rate": 0.2392, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1469, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0436, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0211, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2288, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2227, "after": 1.2564 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0578, "after": 1.0336 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0447, "after": 1.0211 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1469, "after": 0.1622 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1728, "after": 0.187 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7442, "after": 0.7336 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2392, "after": 0.2288 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0599, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2288, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0599, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2288, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0599, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0633, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0599, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1289, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0651, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0599, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1289, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0651, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3240, "fifa_rank": 2217.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0599, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1289, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0651, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1209, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1209, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.1031, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0696, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2564, "tackles": 1.3463, "tackles_won": 0.7336, "clearances": 7.1464, "aerial_won": 3.626, "total_shots": 1.0599, "rating": 7.009, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 56.9879, "accurate_pass": 48.5745, "duels_won": 6.301, "total_long_balls": 6.6175, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3458, "total_own_half_passes": 39.8125, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.2092, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.1753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3651, "crosses_total": 0.187, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 75.4239, "possession_lost": 9.1092, "dispossessed": 0.1728, "duels_lost": 4.8084, "aerial_lost": 3.8312, "total_contest": 0.5185, "won_contest": 0.5185, "ball_recovery": 3.6748, "challenges_lost": 0.3761, "fouls": 0.4314, "fouls_drawn": 1.0336, "blocks": 0.8946, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1289, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "shots_on_target": 0.1622, "big_chances_created": 0.2783, "xgot": 0.0651, "ball_carries": 17.3445, "total_progression": 27.3348, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2392, "shots_off_target": 0.8977, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766, "opponent_faced": "Granit Xhaka", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1209, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0111, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0111, "assist_rate": 0.2288, "provider_weight": 0.014, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0149, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nico Elvedi": { "player_id": 282229, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 188, "market_value": 11000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 62, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "expected_assists": 0.1884, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.2209, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 110, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0431, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1717, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.118, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 76, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0656, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 59, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.052, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.5672, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1584, "combined_rank_score": 646.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 132.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1160.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7832, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking": 1581 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 1587 }, { "player_name": "Bertrand Traoré", "ranking": 1588 }, { "player_name": "Abdurauf Buriev", "ranking": 1589 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.506, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 4, "data_confidence": 0.506, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0049, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "minutes": 57.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 4 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.04, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0144, "tackles": 1.2137, "tackles_won": 0.7649, "clearances": 4.6038, "aerial_won": 1.8138, "total_shots": 0.6392, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 50.8241, "accurate_pass": 46.1137, "duels_won": 2.2313, "total_long_balls": 3.1662, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4966, "total_own_half_passes": 32.0671, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.1254, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.757, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.9883, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.3256, "possession_lost": 5.9329, "dispossessed": 0.3304, "duels_lost": 3.793, "aerial_lost": 2.2313, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.38, "challenges_lost": 0.9504, "fouls": 0.2809, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3392, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.1654, "shots_on_target": 0.3887, "big_chances_created": 0.5617, "xgot": 0.214, "ball_carries": 22.5578, "total_progression": 109.3555, "progressive_carries": 1.9436, "key_pass": 0.5617, "shots_off_target": 0.2505 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 56.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 4.2992, "aerialWon": 1.5345, "totalClearance_p90": 4.6502, "totalTackle": 0.4595, "totalPass": 48.3526 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0143851041793823, "model_output": 1.0144, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1129 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0356 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0179 } ], "others": 0.0299, "total": 1.0144, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123674 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036056 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.020799 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.018998 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018346 } ], "others_margin": 0.030003 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 1.2136542797088623, "model_output": 1.2137, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1815 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.1546 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.1055 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0887 } ], "others": -0.2745, "total": 1.2137, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122398 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.103276 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.07715 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.062055 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.061441 } ], "others_margin": -0.203921 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.7649210095405579, "model_output": 0.7649, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0874 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0859 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.07 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0342 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 0.7649, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.107881 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106163 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.085679 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.061449 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.041899 } ], "others_margin": -0.042721 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.603841304779053, "model_output": 4.6038, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.46 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4201 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.3347 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.3055 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2504 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 4.6038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125122 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.102014 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.074422 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.06772 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.05583 } ], "others_margin": -0.001561 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.8138163089752197, "model_output": 1.8138, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.152 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1247 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.111 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0785 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0781 } ], "others": 0.0437, "total": 1.8138, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.104366 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.078172 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.064799 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.043406 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.043145 } ], "others_margin": 0.024282 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6392198204994202, "model_output": 0.6392, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0655 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.045 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 0.6392, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065455 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04498 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.035739 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.024845 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021106 } ], "others_margin": -0.024037 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78323221206665, "model_output": 6.7832, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.7832, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.013571 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011627 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.010356 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009502 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008792 } ], "others_margin": -0.014908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0194, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7687, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6424, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2823, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.3458, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "expected_assists": 0.1662, "shots_on_target": 0.3906, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.215, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11000000, "quality_factor": 0.5341, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6331, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "expected_assists": 0.1662, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.215, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.0481 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7687, "after": 0.7576 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6424, "after": 0.6331 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0194, "after": 1.0287 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3906, "after": 0.385 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6367, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "expected_assists": 0.1662, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.215, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6367, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "expected_assists": 0.1662, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.215, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6367, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "expected_assists": 0.1662, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.215, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6367, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "expected_assists": 0.1884, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.2209, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1662, "after": 0.1884 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6367, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "expected_assists": 0.1884, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.2209, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1584, "fifa_rank": 1160.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6367, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "expected_assists": 0.1884, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.2209, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0431, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0431, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0353, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0238, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0287, "tackles": 1.2196, "tackles_won": 0.7576, "clearances": 4.6264, "aerial_won": 1.8227, "total_shots": 0.6367, "rating": 6.7832, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 51.0731, "accurate_pass": 46.3397, "duels_won": 2.2422, "total_long_balls": 3.1817, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5088, "total_own_half_passes": 32.2242, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.2779, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8489, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.0617, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 61.6261, "possession_lost": 5.962, "dispossessed": 0.332, "duels_lost": 3.8116, "aerial_lost": 2.2422, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3868, "challenges_lost": 0.9551, "fouls": 0.2782, "fouls_drawn": 0.0481, "blocks": 1.3458, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "expected_assists": 0.1884, "shots_on_target": 0.385, "big_chances_created": 0.5645, "xgot": 0.2209, "ball_carries": 22.6683, "total_progression": 109.8913, "progressive_carries": 1.9531, "key_pass": 0.5645, "shots_off_target": 0.2517, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0431, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1717, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 1, "assist_probability": 0.1717, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.1507, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.1603, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "James Justin": { "player_id": 827681, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 183, "market_value": 16500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "expected_assists": 0.0839, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0628, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0805, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0871, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1898, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0465, "expected_assists": 0.1244, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2766, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0306, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1244, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0595, "expected_assists": 0.0241, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3031, "combined_rank_score": 1003.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1778.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8834, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James Justin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dong-geon No", "ranking": 3026 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Pastene", "ranking": 3027 }, { "player_name": "Dumitru Celeadnic", "ranking": 3028 }, { "player_name": "Leo Kapilevich", "ranking": 3029 }, { "player_name": "Jens Petter Hauge", "ranking": 3030 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jens Hofer", "ranking": 3032 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Zaragoza", "ranking": 3033 }, { "player_name": "Wout Weghorst", "ranking": 3034 }, { "player_name": "Jake Azzopardi", "ranking": 3035 }, { "player_name": "Ki Hyun Lee", "ranking": 3036 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.5, "shots_on_target_pct": 100.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 34 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1203, "tackles": 2.4028, "tackles_won": 1.3441, "clearances": 3.9734, "aerial_won": 1.6195, "total_shots": 0.8176, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.4288, "accurate_pass": 24.0636, "duels_won": 6.2624, "total_long_balls": 4.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3586, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0378, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6183, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.391, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4452, "crosses_total": 1.8188, "crosses_accurate": 0.3416, "touches": 54.4385, "possession_lost": 13.3228, "dispossessed": 0.3535, "duels_lost": 2.9839, "aerial_lost": 1.1267, "total_contest": 0.2936, "won_contest": 0.0941, "ball_recovery": 2.7946, "challenges_lost": 0.7313, "fouls": 0.5729, "fouls_drawn": 1.3094, "blocks": 0.36, "goals": 0.0446, "goal_rate": 0.0446, "assists": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.1376, "expected_goals": 0.063, "expected_assists": 0.0738, "shots_on_target": 0.3073, "big_chances_created": 0.2882, "xgot": 0.0625, "ball_carries": 8.8836, "total_progression": 34.3927, "progressive_carries": 0.9834, "key_pass": 0.7344, "shots_off_target": 0.5103 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1506, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.128, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1088, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0925, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.691, "aerialWon": 1.82, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9717, "totalTackle": 3.0582, "totalPass": 32.1078 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.12029230594635, "model_output": 1.1203, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.111 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0767 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0428, "total": 1.1203, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121721 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.076269 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.025647 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.015916 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.010898 } ], "others_margin": 0.038935 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 2.402827501296997, "model_output": 2.4028, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2061 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.191 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.1468 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.1217 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.1014 } ], "others": 0.2419, "total": 2.4028, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137917 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.112769 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.078771 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.060893 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.048075 } ], "others_margin": 0.106134 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 1.3440762758255005, "model_output": 1.3441, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1181 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0864 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.09 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0577 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0431 } ], "others": 0.0944, "total": 1.3441, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129434 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.085137 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.081544 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.049027 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.035139 } ], "others_margin": 0.07284 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 3.9734272956848145, "model_output": 3.9734, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.452 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3523 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1853 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1755 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.1159 } ], "others": -0.1566, "total": 3.9734, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123055 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.086412 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.044516 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.042207 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027687 } ], "others_margin": -0.038626 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.6195220947265625, "model_output": 1.6195, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.2305 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1812 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0724 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.054 } ], "others": -0.1173, "total": 1.6195, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.154268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.106477 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.041194 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.039606 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.03064 } ], "others_margin": -0.069939 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8175864219665527, "model_output": 0.8176, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2146 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 0.8176, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.214629 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.067058 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029928 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025067 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.02114 } ], "others_margin": -0.011367 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.883410453796387, "model_output": 6.8834, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0425 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0194, "total": 6.8834, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042474 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027882 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.020098 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.014113 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.013128 } ], "others_margin": -0.019416 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0035, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1242, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3488, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8205, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8252, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.5749, "fouls_drawn": 1.314, "blocks": 0.3613, "goals": 0.0448, "goal_rate": 0.0448, "assists": 0.1381, "assist_rate": 0.1381, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.3084, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0627, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0111)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8169, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goals": 0.0443, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "assists": 0.1366, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0627, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0111, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9932, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3488, "after": 1.3614 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8226, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goals": 0.0443, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "assists": 0.1366, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0627, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8226, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goals": 0.0443, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "assists": 0.1366, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0627, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8226, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "expected_assists": 0.0741, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0627, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8226, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "expected_assists": 0.0839, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0741, "after": 0.0839 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8226, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "expected_assists": 0.0839, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3031, "fifa_rank": 1778.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8226, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "expected_assists": 0.0839, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0628, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "scorer_weight": 0.0541, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0365, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1227, "tackles": 2.4112, "tackles_won": 1.3614, "clearances": 3.9873, "aerial_won": 1.6252, "total_shots": 0.8226, "rating": 6.8834, "minutes": 89.39, "total_pass": 32.5423, "accurate_pass": 24.1478, "duels_won": 6.2843, "total_long_balls": 4.3134, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3634, "total_own_half_passes": 17.0974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.666, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.4449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4818, "crosses_total": 1.8215, "crosses_accurate": 0.3428, "touches": 54.629, "possession_lost": 13.3694, "dispossessed": 0.3547, "duels_lost": 2.9943, "aerial_lost": 1.1306, "total_contest": 0.2946, "won_contest": 0.0944, "ball_recovery": 2.8044, "challenges_lost": 0.7339, "fouls": 0.574, "fouls_drawn": 1.3104, "blocks": 0.3613, "goal_rate": 0.0443, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0649, "expected_assists": 0.0839, "shots_on_target": 0.3105, "big_chances_created": 0.2892, "xgot": 0.0644, "ball_carries": 8.9147, "total_progression": 34.5131, "progressive_carries": 0.9868, "key_pass": 0.737, "shots_off_target": 0.5121, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0628, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0805, "finishing_factor": 0.833, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0805, "assist_rate": 0.1366, "provider_weight": 0.1049, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.1116, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "James Trafford": { "player_id": 980643, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 197, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 25, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0895, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.046 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1101 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.9933 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1378 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.3189 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.1874 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3277 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6451 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025094, "match_date": "2025-08-31", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 32, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 1.0718 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025083, "match_date": "2025-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0815 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1256, "combined_rank_score": 548.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 212.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.175, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 885.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9703, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "James Trafford", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Caroca", "ranking": 1251 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Hernández", "ranking": 1252 }, { "player_name": "Israel Poblete", "ranking": 1253 }, { "player_name": "Julian Chabot", "ranking": 1254 }, { "player_name": "Filip Kurto", "ranking": 1255 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ju-sung Kim", "ranking": 1257 }, { "player_name": "Saidafzalkhon Akhrorov", "ranking": 1258 }, { "player_name": "Dostonbek Tursunov", "ranking": 1259 }, { "player_name": "Sylvanus Nimely", "ranking": 1260 }, { "player_name": "Alex Valdés", "ranking": 1261 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 9, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 9, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0284, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 9 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Leeds United, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9946, "goals_prevented": 0.0081, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 36.0316, "accurate_pass": 23.9091, "total_long_balls": 17.6627, "accurate_long_balls": 6.0256, "touches": 47.4548, "clearances": 1.3136, "ball_recovery": 10.5264, "high_claims": 1.0772, "punches": 0.8092, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "sweeper_actions": 1.9426, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8342, "saves_inside_box": 2.1616, "possession_lost": 12.1225, "duels_won": 0.5009, "duels_lost": 0.1019, "total_contest": 0.0736, "won_contest": 0.0736, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0626, "total_own_half_passes": 20.9831, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.4916 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:04:36.867499+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1952, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1659, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.141, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1199, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1019, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0866, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-31", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0736, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-23", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0626, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0532, "rating": 7.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 9.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.1211, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9335, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4416, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.3607, "save_contribution": 4.3263, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.8341 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9946236610412598, "model_output": 2.9946, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0049, "total": 2.9946, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008927 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.006418 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.005682 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.004361 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.004005 } ], "others_margin": 0.00161 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.00812569446861744, "model_output": 0.0081, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 0.0081, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.014871 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.012457 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.01077 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.010557 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.009514 } ], "others_margin": -0.014402 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.970301151275635, "model_output": 6.9703, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0163, "total": 6.9703, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023995 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.018095 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.014624 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.013485 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.011469 } ], "others_margin": -0.016284 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0284, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0797, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0644, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0284, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0309)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0309, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0895, "shots_faced": 10.4, "expected_saves": 2.55, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.0895 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0895, "shots_faced": 10.4, "expected_saves": 2.55, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0895, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.4, "after": 12.6 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.55, "after": 3.08 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.87, "after": 1.06 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0895, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1256, "fifa_rank": 885.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0895, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0772, "goals_prevented": 0.0084, "rating": 6.9703, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.0549, "accurate_pass": 24.5881, "total_long_balls": 18.1643, "accurate_long_balls": 6.1967, "touches": 48.8025, "clearances": 1.3509, "ball_recovery": 10.8253, "high_claims": 1.1078, "punches": 0.8322, "aerial_won": 0.2464, "sweeper_actions": 1.9978, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8863, "saves_inside_box": 2.223, "possession_lost": 12.4668, "duels_won": 0.5151, "duels_lost": 0.1048, "total_contest": 0.0757, "won_contest": 0.0757, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0624, "total_own_half_passes": 21.579, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.0452, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0895, "shots_faced": 12.6, "expected_saves": 3.08, "high_pressure_saves": 1.06, "opponent_faced": "Brian Brobbey, Habib Diarra", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Lucas Perri": { "player_id": 871290, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 196, "market_value": 9200000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "touches": 7, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14025052, "match_date": "2026-01-07", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.1289 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025284, "match_date": "2026-01-04", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6086 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025264, "match_date": "2026-01-01", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.7617 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025250, "match_date": "2025-12-28", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 35, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.49 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025224, "match_date": "2025-12-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 37, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.1024 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025186, "match_date": "2025-12-14", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1599 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025168, "match_date": "2025-12-06", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.6922 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025138, "match_date": "2025-12-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.2277 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025108, "match_date": "2025-11-29", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.6775 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025078, "match_date": "2025-11-23", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.5362 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3357, "combined_rank_score": 1306.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 835.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5875, "sofascore_appearances": 16.0, "fifa_rank": 1777.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9545, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Perri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Javi Rodríguez", "ranking": 3352 }, { "player_name": "Kristian Thorstvedt", "ranking": 3353 }, { "player_name": "Danilo Santos", "ranking": 3354 }, { "player_name": "Soufiane Rahimi", "ranking": 3355 }, { "player_name": "Héctor Bellerín", "ranking": 3356 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Billy Gilmour", "ranking": 3358 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 3359 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 3360 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker", "ranking": 3361 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Moro", "ranking": 3362 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 16, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 16, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.691536137511768, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.12234255170508039, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0006, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (16 historical appearances) to 4.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.12); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.7773, "goals_prevented": -0.034, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 34.2416, "accurate_pass": 18.3531, "total_long_balls": 21.6926, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8312, "touches": 43.6944, "clearances": 1.1387, "ball_recovery": 6.2017, "high_claims": 1.1859, "punches": 1.1134, "aerial_won": 0.3126, "sweeper_actions": 0.4271, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4271, "saves_inside_box": 1.8263, "possession_lost": 17.0485, "duels_won": 0.5674, "duels_lost": 0.1807, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0846, "fouls_drawn": 0.4168, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5814, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5521 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:04:36.867499+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.162, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-04", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1377, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-01", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1171, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-28", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0995, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0846, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-14", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0719, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-06", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0611, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-03", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0519, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-29", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0442, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-11-23", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0375, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 16.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.2049, "distribution_accuracy": 0.7975, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.2049, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0484, "save_contribution": 2.2494, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.4271 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.777320623397827, "model_output": 2.7773, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1712 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 2.7773, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060234 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017679 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.005213 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.003778 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.003727 } ], "others_margin": -0.012788 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.033985767513513565, "model_output": -0.034, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0157 } ], "others": 0.0242, "total": -0.034, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.031071 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.026006 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.017693 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017458 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.01575 } ], "others_margin": 0.024189 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.954519271850586, "model_output": 6.9545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0119 } ], "others": -0.0445, "total": 6.9545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.022427 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.021945 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.017099 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.015824 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.011886 } ], "others_margin": -0.044474 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 16, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0006, quality 0.513)", "stats": { "saves": 2.779, "goals_prevented": -0.034, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 34.2621, "accurate_pass": 18.3641, "total_long_balls": 21.7056, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8347, "touches": 43.7206, "clearances": 1.1394, "ball_recovery": 6.2054, "high_claims": 1.1866, "punches": 1.1141, "aerial_won": 0.3128, "sweeper_actions": 0.4274, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4274, "saves_inside_box": 1.8274, "possession_lost": 17.0587, "duels_won": 0.5677, "duels_lost": 0.1808, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0847, "fouls_drawn": 0.4171, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5907, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.5602 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 16, "history_shrink": 0.2381, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.12)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.69, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1646, "appearance_probability": 0.122 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.122, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4575, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9545, "minutes": 4.69, "total_pass": 5.6401, "accurate_pass": 3.023, "total_long_balls": 3.5731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9605, "touches": 7.1971, "clearances": 0.1876, "ball_recovery": 1.0215, "high_claims": 0.1953, "punches": 0.1834, "aerial_won": 0.0515, "sweeper_actions": 0.0704, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0704, "saves_inside_box": 0.3008, "possession_lost": 2.8081, "duels_won": 0.0935, "duels_lost": 0.0298, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0139, "fouls_drawn": 0.0687, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2322, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.122, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.69, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3357, "fifa_rank": 1777.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Joe Rodon": { "player_id": 828640, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 193, "market_value": 18800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.062, "expected_assists": 0.0611, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1207, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "expected_assists": 0.0808, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024018, "match_date": "2026-03-21", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.092, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 37, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1976, "combined_rank_score": 764.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 115.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.425, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 1413.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7171, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joe Rodon", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nodir Soyibov", "ranking": 1971 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Zalewski", "ranking": 1972 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Beraldo", "ranking": 1973 }, { "player_name": "Geon-heui Pyo", "ranking": 1974 }, { "player_name": "Damien Da Silva", "ranking": 1975 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Senny Mayulu", "ranking": 1977 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Gumbau", "ranking": 1978 }, { "player_name": "Malik Tillman", "ranking": 1979 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Vargas", "ranking": 1980 }, { "player_name": "Norman Rodríguez", "ranking": 1981 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 37, "data_confidence": 0.764, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29163464336888, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.232, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0041, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0933 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (37 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3124, "tackles": 0.5636, "tackles_won": 0.3664, "clearances": 1.5184, "aerial_won": 0.8162, "total_shots": 0.2068, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.7732, "accurate_pass": 21.7451, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 2.1213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6325, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0159, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1964, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5487, "crosses_total": 0.337, "crosses_accurate": 0.2821, "touches": 40.6396, "possession_lost": 7.612, "dispossessed": 0.2339, "duels_lost": 3.2168, "aerial_lost": 1.5755, "total_contest": 0.2207, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 1.9925, "challenges_lost": 0.4012, "fouls": 0.8669, "fouls_drawn": 0.5881, "blocks": 0.6132, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0.2068, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.087, "ball_carries": 6.0429, "total_progression": 18.5367, "progressive_carries": 0.3871, "key_pass": 0.5169, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 4.3707, "aerialWon": 1.7642, "totalClearance_p90": 5.4, "totalTackle": 0.8589, "totalPass": 26.7732 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.31242090463638306, "model_output": 0.3124, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4727 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0449 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0213, "total": 0.3124, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.801716 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.124116 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.032865 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.026575 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.024009 } ], "others_margin": -0.065853 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5635558366775513, "model_output": 0.5636, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7141 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0381, "total": 0.5636, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.718051 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.04357 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.029282 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.028183 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.020931 } ], "others_margin": -0.06556 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3664334714412689, "model_output": 0.3664, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3989 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0227 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0152 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0265, "total": 0.3664, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.629149 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.051155 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035775 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.034538 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.026463 } ], "others_margin": -0.069444 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.5183812379837036, "model_output": 1.5184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2205 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1493 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0456 } ], "others": 0.0546, "total": 1.5184, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.978043 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.156903 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.103488 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.035237 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.03168 } ], "others_margin": 0.036573 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8161982893943787, "model_output": 0.8162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8184 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1276 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0345 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": 0.015, "total": 0.8162, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.896938 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.204086 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.068448 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.04552 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.033579 } ], "others_margin": 0.018654 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2068, "model_output": 0.1974, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2507 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0389, "total": 0.1974, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.25068 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009395 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.009224 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.008931 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.007172 } ], "others_margin": -0.038977 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.71710205078125, "model_output": 6.7171, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0315 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0319, "total": 6.7171, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.031549 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02644 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011549 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010019 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.009541 } ], "others_margin": -0.031811 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.619)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3137, "tackles": 0.5659, "tackles_won": 0.3679, "clearances": 1.5246, "aerial_won": 0.8195, "total_shots": 0.2076, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3384, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8705, "fouls_drawn": 0.5905, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2076, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18800000, "quality_factor": 0.6191, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3139, "tackles": 0.5659, "tackles_won": 0.3652, "clearances": 1.5246, "aerial_won": 0.8195, "total_shots": 0.2074, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8679, "fouls_drawn": 0.5887, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2061, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2377, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2097, "tackles": 0.3781, "tackles_won": 0.244, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.5475, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.29, "projection_minutes": 21.39, "minutes_scale": 0.6681, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2097, "tackles": 0.3781, "tackles_won": 0.244, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.5475, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2097, "tackles": 0.3781, "tackles_won": 0.244, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.5475, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2097, "tackles": 0.3781, "tackles_won": 0.244, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.5475, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7171, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1976, "fifa_rank": 1413.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Jaka Bijol": { "player_id": 886930, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 192, "market_value": 18500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 0.9695, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0411, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 13, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1059, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 12 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0986, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 14, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 54, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "expected_assists": 0.005, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2459, "combined_rank_score": 887.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 352.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1423.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8063, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jaka Bijol", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Charles Pickel", "ranking": 2454 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Otamendi", "ranking": 2455 }, { "player_name": "Walter Scott", "ranking": 2456 }, { "player_name": "Javier Rojas", "ranking": 2457 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Gómez", "ranking": 2458 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emiliano Ramos", "ranking": 2460 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Moya", "ranking": 2461 }, { "player_name": "Ji Dong-Won", "ranking": 2462 }, { "player_name": "Jefferson Savarino", "ranking": 2463 }, { "player_name": "Mukhriddin Zoirov", "ranking": 2464 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.765, "history_matches": 28, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 28, "data_confidence": 0.765, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.279596783510211, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.231, "market_value_adjustment": 1.005, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (28 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4024, "tackles": 0.5731, "tackles_won": 0.3994, "clearances": 2.1735, "aerial_won": 1.15, "total_shots": 0.4584, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 25.08, "total_pass": 10.0519, "accurate_pass": 8.4984, "duels_won": 2.0344, "total_long_balls": 1.7578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5107, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1405, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5353, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9114, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9631, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.6949, "possession_lost": 1.6942, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7783, "aerial_lost": 1.3063, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1639, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4719, "fouls_drawn": 0.1656, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0792, "expected_assists": 0.0164, "shots_on_target": 0.4584, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0717, "ball_carries": 3.5029, "total_progression": 4.6197, "progressive_carries": 0.2667, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1516, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1289, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1095, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0931, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0791, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0673, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0572, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0486, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0413, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 6.7168, "aerialWon": 2.5237, "totalClearance_p90": 8.3999, "totalTackle": 0.9032, "totalPass": 31.618 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.40237489342689514, "model_output": 0.4024, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.46 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0162, "total": 0.4024, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.769216 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.041343 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.024559 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.024148 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.021275 } ], "others_margin": 0.041483 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5731090307235718, "model_output": 0.5731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7213 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0529, "total": 0.5731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.728746 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.036061 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.032672 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.031409 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.028351 } ], "others_margin": -0.088231 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.39940130710601807, "model_output": 0.3994, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.382 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 0.3994, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592565 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.057027 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.043508 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.038145 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.034543 } ], "others_margin": 0.005413 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.1734821796417236, "model_output": 2.1735, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1552 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3145 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1024 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0981 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0914 } ], "others": 0.2709, "total": 2.1735, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.979372 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.21725 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.061664 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.055692 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.049222 } ], "others_margin": 0.133091 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1500272750854492, "model_output": 1.15, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8126 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1971 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0887 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0835 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0615 } ], "others": 0.1498, "total": 1.15, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.886657 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.29719 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.109487 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.093187 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.063437 } ], "others_margin": 0.139589 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4584, "model_output": 0.2419, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2545 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0297 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 0.2419, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.254458 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029734 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.015954 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009049 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008102 } ], "others_margin": -0.019467 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.806252479553223, "model_output": 6.8063, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 6.8063, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026156 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020371 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.011015 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010895 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.009783 } ], "others_margin": -0.004789 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0050, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4044, "tackles": 0.576, "tackles_won": 0.4014, "clearances": 2.1843, "aerial_won": 1.1558, "total_shots": 0.4607, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 25.08, "total_pass": 10.1022, "accurate_pass": 8.5409, "duels_won": 2.0446, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5133, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.563, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.7684, "possession_lost": 1.7027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7872, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4743, "fouls_drawn": 0.1664, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0796, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.4607, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "ball_carries": 3.5204, "total_progression": 4.6428, "progressive_carries": 0.268, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.005, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0098)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4059, "tackles": 0.576, "tackles_won": 0.3993, "clearances": 2.1843, "aerial_won": 1.1558, "total_shots": 0.4598, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 25.08, "total_pass": 10.1022, "accurate_pass": 8.5409, "duels_won": 2.0446, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5133, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1712, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.563, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.931, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9779, "crosses_total": 0.0018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.7684, "possession_lost": 1.7027, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7872, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4715, "fouls_drawn": 0.1666, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0796, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.4562, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "ball_carries": 3.5204, "total_progression": 4.6428, "progressive_carries": 0.268, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0098, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2787, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.1 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2311, "tackles": 0.328, "tackles_won": 0.2273, "clearances": 1.2437, "aerial_won": 0.6581, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 5.7518, "accurate_pass": 4.8629, "duels_won": 1.1641, "total_long_balls": 1.0058, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2923, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5136, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1674, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6955, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4086, "possession_lost": 0.9695, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0176, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.666, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2685, "fouls_drawn": 0.0949, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0411, "ball_carries": 2.0044, "total_progression": 2.6434, "progressive_carries": 0.1526, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.28, "projection_minutes": 25.08, "minutes_scale": 0.5694, "appearance_probability": 0.231 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2311, "tackles": 0.328, "tackles_won": 0.2273, "clearances": 1.2437, "aerial_won": 0.6581, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 5.7518, "accurate_pass": 4.8629, "duels_won": 1.1641, "total_long_balls": 1.0058, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2923, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5136, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1674, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6955, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4086, "possession_lost": 0.9695, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0176, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.666, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2685, "fouls_drawn": 0.0949, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0411, "ball_carries": 2.0044, "total_progression": 2.6434, "progressive_carries": 0.1526, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2311, "tackles": 0.328, "tackles_won": 0.2273, "clearances": 1.2437, "aerial_won": 0.6581, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 5.7518, "accurate_pass": 4.8629, "duels_won": 1.1641, "total_long_balls": 1.0058, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2923, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5136, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1674, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6955, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4086, "possession_lost": 0.9695, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0176, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.666, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2685, "fouls_drawn": 0.0949, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0411, "ball_carries": 2.0044, "total_progression": 2.6434, "progressive_carries": 0.1526, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.231, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2311, "tackles": 0.328, "tackles_won": 0.2273, "clearances": 1.2437, "aerial_won": 0.6581, "total_shots": 0.2618, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 5.7518, "accurate_pass": 4.8629, "duels_won": 1.1641, "total_long_balls": 1.0058, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2923, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5136, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1674, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.2382, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6955, "crosses_total": 0.001, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.4086, "possession_lost": 0.9695, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0176, "aerial_lost": 1.3128, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.666, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2685, "fouls_drawn": 0.0949, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0453, "expected_assists": 0.0094, "shots_on_target": 0.2597, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0411, "ball_carries": 2.0044, "total_progression": 2.6434, "progressive_carries": 0.1526, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.231, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2459, "fifa_rank": 1423.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Sean Longstaff": { "player_id": 866191, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0308, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2453, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1865, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3172, "combined_rank_score": 1140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 499.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6589, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.703, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0034, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (25 historical appearances) to 15.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3863, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0382, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.182, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6427, "accurate_pass": 3.6322, "duels_won": 0.6366, "total_long_balls": 0.6297, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2465, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5276, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1046, "crosses_total": 0.5692, "crosses_accurate": 0.3558, "touches": 7.2326, "possession_lost": 1.4568, "dispossessed": 0.233, "duels_lost": 1.0637, "aerial_won": 0.1917, "aerial_lost": 0.2932, "interceptions": 0.1991, "tackles_won": 0.1188, "tackles": 0.1738, "clearances": 0.1483, "total_contest": 0.1068, "won_contest": 0.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.2226, "fouls": 0.3149, "fouls_drawn": 0.1644, "blocks": 0.0858, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1303, "xgot": 0.11, "ball_carries": 1.099, "total_progression": 3.4722, "progressive_carries": 0.1176, "shots_off_target": 0.1925 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 2.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4052, "creative_index": 0.2184, "expectedGoals": 0.0432, "expectedAssists": 0.0568, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1743 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3862667679786682, "model_output": 0.3863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4194 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": 0.0125, "total": 0.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.640944 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.077001 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.05294 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.049504 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.042704 } ], "others_margin": 0.032681 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03509388491511345, "model_output": 0.0351, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0018 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 0.0351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.602454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.079194 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.039847 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.039732 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.038297 } ], "others_margin": -0.173852 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03815620765089989, "model_output": 0.0382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324612 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.142084 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.135314 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.082953 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.058399 } ], "others_margin": -0.226207 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.036549560725688934, "model_output": 0.0365, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0015 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0013 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.0365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.616996 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146659 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.107245 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.037465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034979 } ], "others_margin": -0.005824 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05003969743847847, "model_output": 0.05, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": 0.0021, "total": 0.05, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.560499 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.17136 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.07787 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.052526 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.04627 } ], "others_margin": 0.042409 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18196801841259003, "model_output": 0.182, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1234 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 0.182, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.479209 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.313068 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.091393 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.06128 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041093 } ], "others_margin": 0.103812 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.37451329827308655, "model_output": 0.3745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3665 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2044 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": 0.0357, "total": 0.3745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366465 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032281 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02472 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023774 } ], "others_margin": 0.03571 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658891677856445, "model_output": 6.6589, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 6.6589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04841 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025903 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015565 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014502 } ], "others_margin": -0.015379 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3876, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1826, "total_shots": 0.3758, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5711, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.1192, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.165, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.1932 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3876, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1825, "total_shots": 0.3755, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5707, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1997, "tackles_won": 0.1191, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.1649, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.1932 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1489, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.4 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.08, "projection_minutes": 13.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1254, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0413, "after": 0.0298 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0396, "after": 0.0315 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3172, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "scorer_weight": 0.0348, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0235, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0308, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "provider_weight": 0.0327, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0348, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ilia Gruev": { "player_id": 911679, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 185, "market_value": 11000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023991, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023982, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023974, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025188, "match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025170, "match_date": "2026-02-06", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2883, "expected_assists": 0.4264, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025134, "match_date": "2026-01-31", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15129439, "match_date": "2026-01-26", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0408, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3426, "combined_rank_score": 1419.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 630.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.76, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 2209.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6851, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ilia Gruev", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alphonse Aréola", "ranking": 3421 }, { "player_name": "Yarek", "ranking": 3422 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Hofmann", "ranking": 3423 }, { "player_name": "Zion Suzuki", "ranking": 3424 }, { "player_name": "Esmir Bajraktarević", "ranking": 3425 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aaron Hickey", "ranking": 3427 }, { "player_name": "Joaquin Seys", "ranking": 3428 }, { "player_name": "Julián Araujo", "ranking": 3429 }, { "player_name": "Emil Forsberg", "ranking": 3430 }, { "player_name": "Charlie Hughes", "ranking": 3431 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 23, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 22.35517694040277, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5161444063819441, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0016, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (23 historical appearances) to 22.4 expected mins (appearance prob 0.52)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2573, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0.0305, "assist_rate": 0.0305, "expected_goals": 0.0172, "goals": 0.0315, "goal_rate": 0.0315, "shots_on_target": 0.0873, "total_shots": 0.2662, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 7.143, "accurate_pass": 5.9766, "duels_won": 0.9167, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.803, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3906, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.34, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5859, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9839, "possession_lost": 1.6482, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6042, "aerial_won": 0.3505, "aerial_lost": 0.3065, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0915, "tackles": 0.2405, "clearances": 0.6228, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2062, "fouls": 0.0915, "fouls_drawn": 0.3257, "blocks": 0.149, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.7399, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1789 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-03", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 75.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-06", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-26", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4313, "creative_index": 0.2012, "expectedGoals": 0.0254, "expectedAssists": 0.035, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.0493 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.2572679817676544, "model_output": 0.2573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.422 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.029 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0202 } ], "others": -0.0872, "total": 0.2573, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.646541 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.082532 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.082196 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.076476 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": -0.057046 } ], "others_margin": -0.292032 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.021288208663463593, "model_output": 0.0213, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.533394 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.202971 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.167831 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.142077 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052167 } ], "others_margin": -0.295114 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.030525490641593933, "model_output": 0.0305, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0032 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.0305, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.34859 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.152248 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.114784 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07181 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.060479 } ], "others_margin": -0.278878 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.01716405153274536, "model_output": 0.0172, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.0172, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592152 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.368258 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.196498 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.126237 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.061169 } ], "others_margin": -0.360707 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03152938559651375, "model_output": 0.0315, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0359 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0039 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0105, "total": 0.0315, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.457734 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.200559 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.159733 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094071 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.071878 } ], "others_margin": -0.290202 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.08726397901773453, "model_output": 0.0873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": -0.0117, "total": 0.0873, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.510752 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.305896 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.176429 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.157659 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.034408 } ], "others_margin": -0.126633 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2661932408809662, "model_output": 0.2662, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3156 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2025 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0279 } ], "others": -0.1025, "total": 0.2662, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.31561 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.202451 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.042596 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.03319 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.027887 } ], "others_margin": -0.102537 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.685059547424316, "model_output": 6.6851, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0292 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0068 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 6.6851, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077532 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.029157 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007059 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.006834 } ], "others_margin": -0.017102 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0016, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2577, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "assists": 0.0306, "assist_rate": 0.0306, "expected_goals": 0.0172, "goals": 0.0316, "goal_rate": 0.0316, "shots_on_target": 0.0874, "total_shots": 0.2666, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 18.9, "total_pass": 7.1544, "accurate_pass": 5.9862, "duels_won": 0.9182, "total_long_balls": 0.1492, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8091, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.396, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.59, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9999, "possession_lost": 1.6508, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.3511, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0916, "tackles": 0.2409, "clearances": 0.6238, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.0916, "fouls_drawn": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1492, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.7411, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1792 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11000000, "quality_factor": 0.5341, "boost_factor": 1.0016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.9 to 22.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.36, "projection_minutes": 18.9, "minutes_scale": 1.1828, "appearance_probability": 0.516 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goals": 0.0374, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.516, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0203, "goal_rate": 0.0374, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3154, "rating": 6.6851, "minutes": 22.36, "total_pass": 8.4623, "accurate_pass": 7.0806, "duels_won": 1.0861, "total_long_balls": 0.1765, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5055, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0168, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0635, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.828, "possession_lost": 1.9526, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7158, "aerial_won": 0.4153, "aerial_lost": 0.307, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1083, "tackles": 0.2849, "clearances": 0.7378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.2065, "fouls": 0.1083, "fouls_drawn": 0.3858, "blocks": 0.1765, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.8766, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3426, "fifa_rank": 2209.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } } ] }, "Noah Okafor": { "player_id": 865523, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 35000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0713, "expected_assists": 0.0767, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3281, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.193, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.36, "expected_assists": 0.1744, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2522, "combined_rank_score": 912.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 403.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9393, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6792, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Moritz Nicolas", "ranking": 2517 }, { "player_name": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "ranking": 2518 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 }, { "player_name": "Stole Dimitrievski", "ranking": 2524 }, { "player_name": "Samuele Ricci", "ranking": 2525 }, { "player_name": "Yahir Salazar", "ranking": 2526 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hwan Lee", "ranking": 2527 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.552, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0097, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (33 historical appearances) to 25.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0828, "goals": 0.0862, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.6123, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3975, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 3.8701, "accurate_pass": 2.4278, "duels_won": 1.7191, "total_long_balls": 0.2696, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6281, "crosses_total": 0.3719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1868, "touches": 10.3652, "possession_lost": 4.7461, "dispossessed": 0.5346, "duels_lost": 2.8178, "aerial_lost": 0.6604, "total_contest": 1.863, "won_contest": 0.8192, "ball_recovery": 1.1951, "challenges_lost": 0.3217, "fouls": 0.2572, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3401, "tackles_won": 0.5798, "tackles": 0.6502, "clearances": 0.1657, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1629, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0279, "total_progression": 35.0515, "progressive_carries": 1.368, "shots_off_target": 0.3474 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1265, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.1857, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.885, "accuratePass": 9.9493, "totalShots": 1.2777 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08276612311601639, "model_output": 0.0828, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0887 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.0828, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.590133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.152442 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.093938 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045483 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033179 } ], "others_margin": -0.216117 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08615707606077194, "model_output": 0.0862, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.0862, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584084 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.165026 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.065831 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.059217 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.032332 } ], "others_margin": -0.072663 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.26482757925987244, "model_output": 0.2648, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2296 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 0.2648, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557901 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.061508 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.053227 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.038769 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035251 } ], "others_margin": 0.039774 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6122589111328125, "model_output": 0.6123, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0993 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": -0.0943, "total": 0.6123, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525372 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.099288 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043093 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.030328 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.026045 } ], "others_margin": -0.094411 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.039541929960250854, "model_output": 0.0395, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": 0.0041, "total": 0.0395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.373528 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088815 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.047717 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041164 } ], "others_margin": 0.111468 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3975087106227875, "model_output": 0.3975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.057, "total": 0.3975, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073196 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047632 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045312 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.033533 } ], "others_margin": 0.154849 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6791887283325195, "model_output": 6.6792, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 6.6792, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077879 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024351 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.014165 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01206 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010938 } ], "others_margin": 0.007717 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.2674, "total_shots": 0.6182, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 0.4014, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 3.9076, "accurate_pass": 2.4513, "duels_won": 1.7358, "total_long_balls": 0.2722, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6439, "crosses_total": 0.3755, "crosses_accurate": 0.1886, "touches": 10.4657, "possession_lost": 4.7921, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 2.8451, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 1.8811, "won_contest": 0.8271, "ball_recovery": 1.2067, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2597, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3434, "tackles_won": 0.5854, "tackles": 0.6565, "clearances": 0.1673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1645, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0573, "total_progression": 35.3915, "progressive_carries": 1.3813, "shots_off_target": 0.3508 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0865, "goal_rate": 0.0865, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 0.6175, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 0.4014, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 3.9076, "accurate_pass": 2.4513, "duels_won": 1.7358, "total_long_balls": 0.2722, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6439, "crosses_total": 0.3807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1886, "touches": 10.4657, "possession_lost": 4.7921, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 2.8451, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 1.8811, "won_contest": 0.8271, "ball_recovery": 1.2067, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2597, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3429, "tackles_won": 0.5865, "tackles": 0.6565, "clearances": 0.1673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1645, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0573, "total_progression": 35.3915, "progressive_carries": 1.3813, "shots_off_target": 0.3508 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2568, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3755, "after": 0.3807 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.69, "projection_minutes": 23.11, "minutes_scale": 1.1116, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.552 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0929, "after": 0.0527 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0444, "after": 0.0278 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2522, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "scorer_weight": 0.0539, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0364, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0222, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0237, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Harry Wilson": { "player_id": 355528, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 173, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1023, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.171, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1523, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2284, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 423, "combined_rank_score": 260.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 20.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.645, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Roman Begunov", "ranking": 418 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Paredes", "ranking": 419 }, { "player_name": "Alex Sandro", "ranking": 420 }, { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 }, { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 }, { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.547, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (40 historical appearances) to 36.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 45.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goals": 0.0722, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "shots_on_target": 0.2385, "total_shots": 0.6638, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.3717, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.7786, "accurate_pass": 7.045, "duels_won": 1.7146, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5149, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2866, "crosses_total": 1.1891, "crosses_accurate": 0.2208, "touches": 13.4554, "possession_lost": 2.4153, "dispossessed": 0.2748, "duels_lost": 1.7066, "aerial_lost": 0.4815, "total_contest": 0.326, "won_contest": 0.2427, "ball_recovery": 0.6662, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7747, "assists": 0.1356, "assist_rate": 0.1356, "interceptions": 0.319, "tackles_won": 0.2189, "tackles": 0.6971, "clearances": 0.2208, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2208, "ball_carries": 4.1696, "total_progression": 11.6352, "progressive_carries": 0.6543, "shots_off_target": 0.4253 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0673, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.0712, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.6065, "accuratePass": 11.8592, "totalShots": 1.1609 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.059021905064582825, "model_output": 0.059, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.023, "total": 0.059, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.605362 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.198778 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.074407 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.050174 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.040996 } ], "others_margin": -0.327444 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07221589237451553, "model_output": 0.0722, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0752 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0722, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.460897 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.18882 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.097679 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.092128 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.078105 } ], "others_margin": -0.119602 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23848362267017365, "model_output": 0.2385, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1943 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.2385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.44916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.078872 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.059029 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.044252 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.039967 } ], "others_margin": -0.220313 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6637521982192993, "model_output": 0.6638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1024 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.1177, "total": 0.6638, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102438 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.026759 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026058 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.020394 } ], "others_margin": -0.11778 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04569666087627411, "model_output": 0.0457, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.002 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.0457, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.319385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052226 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.043635 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04228 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04181 } ], "others_margin": -0.012829 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37168335914611816, "model_output": 0.3717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2851 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 0.3717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049002 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.030189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.028178 } ], "others_margin": 0.057711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645003318786621, "model_output": 6.645, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 6.645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062588 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01359 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012283 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.011434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010014 } ], "others_margin": -0.00725 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.24, "total_shots": 0.668, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1966, "crosses_accurate": 0.2222, "touches": 13.5402, "possession_lost": 2.4305, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 1.7174, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.3281, "won_contest": 0.2442, "ball_recovery": 0.6704, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.4615, "fouls_drawn": 0.7796, "assists": 0.1365, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "interceptions": 0.321, "tackles_won": 0.2203, "tackles": 0.7015, "clearances": 0.2222, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2222, "ball_carries": 4.1959, "total_progression": 11.7085, "progressive_carries": 0.6584, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0058)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0723, "goal_rate": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 0.6653, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1969, "crosses_accurate": 0.2222, "touches": 13.5402, "possession_lost": 2.4305, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 1.7174, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.3281, "won_contest": 0.2442, "ball_recovery": 0.6704, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.46, "fouls_drawn": 0.7763, "assists": 0.1357, "assist_rate": 0.1357, "interceptions": 0.3216, "tackles_won": 0.2202, "tackles": 0.7015, "clearances": 0.2222, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 4.1959, "total_progression": 11.7085, "progressive_carries": 0.6584, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0058, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2509, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.6 to 36.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goals": 0.1085, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 36.59, "projection_minutes": 22.58, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.547 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goals": 0.1085, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.547 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0891, "after": 0.0501 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.069, "after": 0.0427 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 423, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "scorer_weight": 0.0571, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0385, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "provider_weight": 0.0534, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0568, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Sean Longstaff": { "player_id": 866191, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0308, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2453, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1118, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025215, "match_date": "2026-02-21", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1865, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3172, "combined_rank_score": 1140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 499.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6589, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 25, "data_confidence": 0.751, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.703, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0034, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 9.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0067 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (25 historical appearances) to 15.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.70); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 9.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3863, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assists": 0.0382, "assist_rate": 0.0382, "expected_goals": 0.0365, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.182, "total_shots": 0.3745, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6427, "accurate_pass": 3.6322, "duels_won": 0.6366, "total_long_balls": 0.6297, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2465, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5276, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1046, "crosses_total": 0.5692, "crosses_accurate": 0.3558, "touches": 7.2326, "possession_lost": 1.4568, "dispossessed": 0.233, "duels_lost": 1.0637, "aerial_won": 0.1917, "aerial_lost": 0.2932, "interceptions": 0.1991, "tackles_won": 0.1188, "tackles": 0.1738, "clearances": 0.1483, "total_contest": 0.1068, "won_contest": 0.1068, "challenges_lost": 0.2226, "fouls": 0.3149, "fouls_drawn": 0.1644, "blocks": 0.0858, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1303, "xgot": 0.11, "ball_carries": 1.099, "total_progression": 3.4722, "progressive_carries": 0.1176, "shots_off_target": 0.1925 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 2.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1526, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1297, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 30.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1103, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0937, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0797, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0677, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0576, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0489, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-21", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 13.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0416, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0354, "rating": 0.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.4052, "creative_index": 0.2184, "expectedGoals": 0.0432, "expectedAssists": 0.0568, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.1743 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3862667679786682, "model_output": 0.3863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4194 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": 0.0125, "total": 0.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.640944 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.077001 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.05294 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.049504 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.042704 } ], "others_margin": 0.032681 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03509388491511345, "model_output": 0.0351, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0388 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0018 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0018 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 0.0351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.602454 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.079194 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.039847 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.039732 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.038297 } ], "others_margin": -0.173852 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.03815620765089989, "model_output": 0.0382, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0236 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.004 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0029 } ], "others": -0.0095, "total": 0.0382, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.324612 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.142084 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.135314 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.082953 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.058399 } ], "others_margin": -0.226207 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.036549560725688934, "model_output": 0.0365, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0045 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0015 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0013 } ], "others": -0.0001, "total": 0.0365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.616996 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.146659 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.107245 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.037465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034979 } ], "others_margin": -0.005824 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05003969743847847, "model_output": 0.05, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0419 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0023 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": 0.0021, "total": 0.05, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.560499 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.17136 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.07787 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.052526 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.04627 } ], "others_margin": 0.042409 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.18196801841259003, "model_output": 0.182, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1234 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0539 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": 0.018, "total": 0.182, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.479209 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.313068 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.091393 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.06128 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.041093 } ], "others_margin": 0.103812 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.37451329827308655, "model_output": 0.3745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3665 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2044 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0238 } ], "others": 0.0357, "total": 0.3745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366465 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032281 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.02472 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.023774 } ], "others_margin": 0.03571 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658891677856445, "model_output": 6.6589, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0702 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0484 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": -0.0154, "total": 6.6589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.07022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04841 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025903 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015565 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014502 } ], "others_margin": -0.015379 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3876, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1826, "total_shots": 0.3758, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5711, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1998, "tackles_won": 0.1192, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.165, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.1932 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0034, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3876, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "assists": 0.0383, "assist_rate": 0.0383, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "goals": 0.0502, "goal_rate": 0.0502, "shots_on_target": 0.1825, "total_shots": 0.3755, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 13.4, "total_pass": 4.6585, "accurate_pass": 3.6445, "duels_won": 0.6388, "total_long_balls": 0.6318, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2473, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.5328, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1118, "crosses_total": 0.5707, "crosses_accurate": 0.357, "touches": 7.2572, "possession_lost": 1.4618, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.0673, "aerial_won": 0.1924, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.1997, "tackles_won": 0.1191, "tackles": 0.1744, "clearances": 0.1488, "total_contest": 0.1072, "won_contest": 0.1072, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3158, "fouls_drawn": 0.1649, "blocks": 0.0861, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1307, "xgot": 0.1104, "ball_carries": 1.1027, "total_progression": 3.484, "progressive_carries": 0.118, "shots_off_target": 0.1932 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1489, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 13.4 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.08, "projection_minutes": 13.4, "minutes_scale": 1.1254, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0396, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.1242, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0413, "after": 0.0298 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0396, "after": 0.0315 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3172, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "scorer_weight": 0.0348, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0235, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4362, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2054, "total_shots": 0.4228, "rating": 6.6589, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.2426, "accurate_pass": 4.1014, "duels_won": 0.7189, "total_long_balls": 0.711, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2783, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.725, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.4951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.3766, "crosses_total": 0.6423, "crosses_accurate": 0.4018, "touches": 8.1671, "possession_lost": 1.6451, "dispossessed": 0.2338, "duels_lost": 1.2011, "aerial_won": 0.2165, "aerial_lost": 0.2942, "interceptions": 0.2247, "tackles_won": 0.134, "tackles": 0.1963, "clearances": 0.1675, "total_contest": 0.1206, "won_contest": 0.1206, "challenges_lost": 0.2234, "fouls": 0.3554, "fouls_drawn": 0.1856, "blocks": 0.0969, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1471, "xgot": 0.0897, "ball_carries": 1.2409, "total_progression": 3.9208, "progressive_carries": 0.1328, "shots_off_target": 0.2174, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0292, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0308, "finishing_factor": 1.1665, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0431, "provider_weight": 0.0327, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0348, "creation_factor": 1.0391, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Noah Okafor": { "player_id": 865523, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 35000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Man Utd", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0213, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0555, "expected_assists": 0.0148, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0227, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0713, "expected_assists": 0.0767, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0769, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1554, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023940, "match_date": "2026-05-01", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3281, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.193, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.36, "expected_assists": 0.1744, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2522, "combined_rank_score": 912.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 403.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9393, "sofascore_appearances": 28.0, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6792, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Noah Okafor", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Moritz Nicolas", "ranking": 2517 }, { "player_name": "El Hadji Malick Diouf", "ranking": 2518 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 2519 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Ramsey", "ranking": 2520 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Singo", "ranking": 2521 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Noah Atubolu", "ranking": 2523 }, { "player_name": "Stole Dimitrievski", "ranking": 2524 }, { "player_name": "Samuele Ricci", "ranking": 2525 }, { "player_name": "Yahir Salazar", "ranking": 2526 }, { "player_name": "Jae-hwan Lee", "ranking": 2527 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 33, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 33, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.552, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0097, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 25.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (33 historical appearances) to 25.7 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 25.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0828, "goals": 0.0862, "goal_rate": 0.0862, "shots_on_target": 0.2648, "total_shots": 0.6123, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3975, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 3.8701, "accurate_pass": 2.4278, "duels_won": 1.7191, "total_long_balls": 0.2696, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8208, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6281, "crosses_total": 0.3719, "crosses_accurate": 0.1868, "touches": 10.3652, "possession_lost": 4.7461, "dispossessed": 0.5346, "duels_lost": 2.8178, "aerial_lost": 0.6604, "total_contest": 1.863, "won_contest": 0.8192, "ball_recovery": 1.1951, "challenges_lost": 0.3217, "fouls": 0.2572, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3401, "tackles_won": 0.5798, "tackles": 0.6502, "clearances": 0.1657, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1629, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0279, "total_progression": 35.0515, "progressive_carries": 1.368, "shots_off_target": 0.3474 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1507, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1281, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1089, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 69.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-01", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0483, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 21.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.1265, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.1857, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 6.885, "accuratePass": 9.9493, "totalShots": 1.2777 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08276612311601639, "model_output": 0.0828, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0887 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0093 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0034 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 0.0828, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.590133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.152442 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.093938 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.045483 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033179 } ], "others_margin": -0.216117 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.08615707606077194, "model_output": 0.0862, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0901 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.003 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.0862, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.584084 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.165026 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.065831 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.059217 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.032332 } ], "others_margin": -0.072663 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.26482757925987244, "model_output": 0.2648, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2296 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 0.2648, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557901 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.061508 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.053227 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.038769 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035251 } ], "others_margin": 0.039774 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6122589111328125, "model_output": 0.6123, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0993 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": -0.0943, "total": 0.6123, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525372 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.099288 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043093 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.030328 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.026045 } ], "others_margin": -0.094411 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.039541929960250854, "model_output": 0.0395, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0038 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": 0.0041, "total": 0.0395, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.373528 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088815 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.047717 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046183 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041164 } ], "others_margin": 0.111468 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3975087106227875, "model_output": 0.3975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0168 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": 0.057, "total": 0.3975, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073196 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047632 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045312 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.033533 } ], "others_margin": 0.154849 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6791887283325195, "model_output": 6.6792, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 6.6792, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077879 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024351 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": -0.014165 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01206 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010938 } ], "others_margin": 0.007717 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.752)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.087, "goal_rate": 0.087, "shots_on_target": 0.2674, "total_shots": 0.6182, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 0.4014, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 3.9076, "accurate_pass": 2.4513, "duels_won": 1.7358, "total_long_balls": 0.2722, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6439, "crosses_total": 0.3755, "crosses_accurate": 0.1886, "touches": 10.4657, "possession_lost": 4.7921, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 2.8451, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 1.8811, "won_contest": 0.8271, "ball_recovery": 1.2067, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2597, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3434, "tackles_won": 0.5854, "tackles": 0.6565, "clearances": 0.1673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1645, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0573, "total_progression": 35.3915, "progressive_carries": 1.3813, "shots_off_target": 0.3508 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 35000000, "quality_factor": 0.752, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0057)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0836, "goals": 0.0865, "goal_rate": 0.0865, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 0.6175, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 0.4014, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 3.9076, "accurate_pass": 2.4513, "duels_won": 1.7358, "total_long_balls": 0.2722, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.6439, "crosses_total": 0.3807, "crosses_accurate": 0.1886, "touches": 10.4657, "possession_lost": 4.7921, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 2.8451, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 1.8811, "won_contest": 0.8271, "ball_recovery": 1.2067, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2597, "fouls_drawn": 0.0015, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3429, "tackles_won": 0.5865, "tackles": 0.6565, "clearances": 0.1673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1645, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0573, "total_progression": 35.3915, "progressive_carries": 1.3813, "shots_off_target": 0.3508 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0057, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2568, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3755, "after": 0.3807 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.1 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.69, "projection_minutes": 23.11, "minutes_scale": 1.1116, "appearance_probability": 0.552 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0929, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1829, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.552 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0929, "after": 0.0527 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0444, "after": 0.0278 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2522, "fifa_rank": 1421.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "scorer_weight": 0.0539, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0364, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0962, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2956, "total_shots": 0.6864, "expected_assists": 0.0278, "key_pass": 0.4462, "rating": 6.6792, "minutes": 25.69, "total_pass": 4.3438, "accurate_pass": 2.725, "duels_won": 1.9296, "total_long_balls": 0.3026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1662, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8274, "crosses_total": 0.4232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2097, "touches": 11.6341, "possession_lost": 5.3271, "dispossessed": 0.5398, "duels_lost": 3.1627, "aerial_lost": 0.6668, "total_contest": 2.0911, "won_contest": 0.9194, "ball_recovery": 1.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.3248, "fouls": 0.2887, "fouls_drawn": 0.0017, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3812, "tackles_won": 0.652, "tackles": 0.7298, "clearances": 0.186, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1038, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3986, "total_progression": 39.3426, "progressive_carries": 1.5355, "shots_off_target": 0.39, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.552, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.69, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0503, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0222, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0237, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.552, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] }, "Harry Wilson": { "player_id": 355528, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 173, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 37, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0302, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363258, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363266, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0106, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1023, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.171, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023931, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1523, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024004, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2284, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 423, "combined_rank_score": 260.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 20.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.645, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Roman Begunov", "ranking": 418 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Paredes", "ranking": 419 }, { "player_name": "Alex Sandro", "ranking": 420 }, { "player_name": "Ismoilbek Usmonxo'jayev", "ranking": 421 }, { "player_name": "Seok-joo Yoon", "ranking": 422 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking": 424 }, { "player_name": "Nordi Mukiele", "ranking": 425 }, { "player_name": "Dani Olmo", "ranking": 426 }, { "player_name": "Piotr Zieliński", "ranking": 427 }, { "player_name": "Anvar Gofurov", "ranking": 428 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.547, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0063, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Leeds United", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 45.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (40 historical appearances) to 36.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.55); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 45.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.059, "goals": 0.0722, "goal_rate": 0.0722, "shots_on_target": 0.2385, "total_shots": 0.6638, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.3717, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.7786, "accurate_pass": 7.045, "duels_won": 1.7146, "total_long_balls": 0.8178, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5149, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2866, "crosses_total": 1.1891, "crosses_accurate": 0.2208, "touches": 13.4554, "possession_lost": 2.4153, "dispossessed": 0.2748, "duels_lost": 1.7066, "aerial_lost": 0.4815, "total_contest": 0.326, "won_contest": 0.2427, "ball_recovery": 0.6662, "challenges_lost": 0.4084, "fouls": 0.4586, "fouls_drawn": 0.7747, "assists": 0.1356, "assist_rate": 0.1356, "interceptions": 0.319, "tackles_won": 0.2189, "tackles": 0.6971, "clearances": 0.2208, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2208, "ball_carries": 4.1696, "total_progression": 11.6352, "progressive_carries": 0.6543, "shots_off_target": 0.4253 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:48.009837+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 603, "rows": 15398 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 17.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 18.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "expectedGoals": 0.0673, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 9.0712, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 7.6065, "accuratePass": 11.8592, "totalShots": 1.1609 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.059021905064582825, "model_output": 0.059, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.267 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0946 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0367 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0304 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "importance": 0.0219 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.199, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0196 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": -0.023, "total": 0.059, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614679, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.605362 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.198778 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.074407 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.050174 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.040996 } ], "others_margin": -0.327444 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07221589237451553, "model_output": 0.0722, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0899 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0562 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0317 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.2037, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0752 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0092, "total": 0.0722, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.590865, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.460897 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.18882 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.097679 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.092128 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.078105 } ], "others_margin": -0.119602 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23848362267017365, "model_output": 0.2385, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1975 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0606 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0481 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.047 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0391 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.537, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1943 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.2385, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.44916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.078872 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.059029 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.044252 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.039967 } ], "others_margin": -0.220313 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6637521982192993, "model_output": 0.6638, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1024 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": -0.1177, "total": 0.6638, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462315 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102438 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.026759 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026058 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.020394 } ], "others_margin": -0.11778 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04569666087627411, "model_output": 0.0457, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.002 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0006, "total": 0.0457, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.319385 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.052226 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.043635 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04228 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04181 } ], "others_margin": -0.012829 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.37168335914611816, "model_output": 0.3717, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2851 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": 0.0209, "total": 0.3717, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.549852 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.056022 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.049002 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.030189 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.028178 } ], "others_margin": 0.057711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.645003318786621, "model_output": 6.645, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 6.645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062588 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01359 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012283 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.011434 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010014 } ], "others_margin": -0.00725 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0727, "goal_rate": 0.0727, "shots_on_target": 0.24, "total_shots": 0.668, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1966, "crosses_accurate": 0.2222, "touches": 13.5402, "possession_lost": 2.4305, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 1.7174, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.3281, "won_contest": 0.2442, "ball_recovery": 0.6704, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.4615, "fouls_drawn": 0.7796, "assists": 0.1365, "assist_rate": 0.1365, "interceptions": 0.321, "tackles_won": 0.2203, "tackles": 0.7015, "clearances": 0.2222, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2222, "ball_carries": 4.1959, "total_progression": 11.7085, "progressive_carries": 0.6584, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0058)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0594, "goals": 0.0723, "goal_rate": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.2386, "total_shots": 0.6653, "expected_assists": 0.046, "key_pass": 0.374, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 22.58, "total_pass": 7.8276, "accurate_pass": 7.0894, "duels_won": 1.7254, "total_long_balls": 0.823, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5181, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7265, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3136, "crosses_total": 1.1969, "crosses_accurate": 0.2222, "touches": 13.5402, "possession_lost": 2.4305, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 1.7174, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.3281, "won_contest": 0.2442, "ball_recovery": 0.6704, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.46, "fouls_drawn": 0.7763, "assists": 0.1357, "assist_rate": 0.1357, "interceptions": 0.3216, "tackles_won": 0.2202, "tackles": 0.7015, "clearances": 0.2222, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0011, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 4.1959, "total_progression": 11.7085, "progressive_carries": 0.6584, "shots_off_target": 0.428 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0058, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2509, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.6 to 36.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.55)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goals": 0.1085, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 36.59, "projection_minutes": 22.58, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.547 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goals": 0.1085, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assists": 0.2035, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.069, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0016, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.45 (squad xG sum 1.4149, xG scale 1.0277, xA scale 1.1324, team xA 0.95 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.454, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4149, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8346, "team_expected_assists": 0.9451, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0277, "xa_scale": 1.1324, "opponent_lambda": 1.327, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.547 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0891, "after": 0.0501 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.069, "after": 0.0427 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 423, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "scorer_weight": 0.0571, "squad_weight_total": 1.4817, "weight_share": 0.0385, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "weight": 0.4659, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4659, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.197 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.1085, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3579, "total_shots": 0.9999, "expected_assists": 0.0427, "key_pass": 0.561, "rating": 6.645, "minutes": 36.59, "total_pass": 11.7414, "accurate_pass": 10.6341, "duels_won": 2.5881, "total_long_balls": 1.2345, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7772, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0897, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.4704, "crosses_total": 1.7954, "crosses_accurate": 0.3333, "touches": 20.3103, "possession_lost": 3.6457, "dispossessed": 0.2765, "duels_lost": 2.5761, "aerial_lost": 0.4845, "total_contest": 0.4921, "won_contest": 0.3663, "ball_recovery": 1.0056, "challenges_lost": 0.411, "fouls": 0.69, "fouls_drawn": 1.1644, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4824, "tackles_won": 0.3303, "tackles": 1.0522, "clearances": 0.3333, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0009, "offsides": 0.2221, "ball_carries": 6.2938, "total_progression": 17.5628, "progressive_carries": 0.9876, "shots_off_target": 0.642, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.547, "bench_expected_minutes": 36.59, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.55, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 1.1395, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.2035, "provider_weight": 0.0534, "squad_weight_total": 0.9401, "weight_share": 0.0568, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.547, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Nico Elvedi", "weight": 0.1507, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1507, "runner_up": "Anton Stach", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1131, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.45, "expected_assists": 0.95, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 393, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.234, "xg_contribution": 0.0273, "xg_multiplier": 0.7271, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.766 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tarik Muharemović in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €43M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Habib Diarra", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Anton Stach" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "xg_contribution": 0.1337, "xg_multiplier": 0.9413, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Anton Stach", "role": "CM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 } ], "duel_analysis": "Habib Diarra (CAM) is evenly matched against Anton Stach in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.134 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.665, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.4309, "xg_multiplier": 1.0197, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) is evenly matched against Tarik Muharemović and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €27M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.431 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Omar Alderete" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "xg_contribution": 0.4292, "xg_multiplier": 1.04, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 }, { "player": "Omar Alderete", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (SS) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki and Omar Alderete in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.429 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lukas Nmecha", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 9100000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.512, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Omar Alderete" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "xg_contribution": 0.1606, "xg_multiplier": 0.9077, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 }, { "player": "Omar Alderete", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lukas Nmecha (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Noah Sadiki and Omar Alderete in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Nordi Mukiele" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.602, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.0388, "xg_multiplier": 1.0378, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nordi Mukiele", "role": "RB", "market_value": 17100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Gudmundsson (LWB) is evenly matched against Nordi Mukiele in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jayden Bogle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Luke O'Nien" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "xg_contribution": 0.1616, "xg_multiplier": 1.1956, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luke O'Nien", "role": "LB", "market_value": 660000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jayden Bogle (RWB) is slightly favored against Luke O'Nien in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Anton Stach", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "xg_contribution": 0.1569, "xg_multiplier": 1.0395, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.523 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anton Stach (CM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.157 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0422, "xg_multiplier": 1.0133, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ao Tanaka", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 16200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.592, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.383, "xg_contribution": 0.065, "xg_multiplier": 0.9015, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.617 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ao Tanaka (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.715, "away_midfield_power": 0.723, "home_creative_power": 0.677, "away_creative_power": 0.561, "home_defensive_power": 0.661, "away_defensive_power": 0.616, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.497, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée", "Habib Diarra", "Granit Xhaka" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Anton Stach", "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Ao Tanaka", "Ethan Ampadu", "Jayden Bogle" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Noah Sadiki vs Ethan Ampadu", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.003, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.995 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.327, "away_lambda": 1.454, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CAM vs CM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Habib Diarra": { "opponents": [ "Anton Stach", "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Lukas Nmecha", "Anton Stach", "Ethan Ampadu", "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Alderete": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Lukas Nmecha" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luke O'Nien": { "opponents": [ "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Lukas Nmecha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Trai Hume": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "opponents": [ "Lukas Nmecha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka", "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Habib Diarra", "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico Elvedi": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Omar Alderete" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lukas Nmecha": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Omar Alderete" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Nordi Mukiele", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jayden Bogle": { "opponents": [ "Luke O'Nien", "Habib Diarra" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ao Tanaka": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "James Justin": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 1.05. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0535, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1365, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9384, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9573, "home_midfield_factor": 1.003, "away_midfield_factor": 0.995, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6247, "away_avg_quality": 0.6496, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0249, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0467, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1112, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.04, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0102, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.5919, "n_duels": 3, "duel_confidence": 0.59, "result": 0.9437 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.003, "result": 0.9466 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 0.9939 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.2913 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8753, "result": 1.1302 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 0.9882 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9384, "result": 0.9274 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0535, "result": 0.9808 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9808, "result": 0.9808, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0102, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9808, "result": 0.9808 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9808 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2035, "result": 1.1845 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 0.6897, "result": 1.0895 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0895, "result": 1.089, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.056 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.056, "result": 1.056, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.056 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.056 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.056, "result": 1.056, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.189, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.327 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0543, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1532 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.995, "result": 1.1475 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.0901 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0901 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0424, "result": 1.1363 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8928, "result": 1.0145 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9573, "result": 0.9711 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1365, "result": 1.1076 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1076, "result": 1.1076, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0102, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.1076, "result": 1.1076 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1076 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1708, "result": 1.2788 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 0.6897, "result": 1.1657 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1657, "result": 1.166, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.283 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.283, "result": 1.283, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.283 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.283 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.283, "result": 1.283, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.189, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.454 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2035, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1708, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Leeds United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.056, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.283, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0895, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1657, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.189, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.327, "final_away_lambda": 1.454 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8753, "attack_index": 0.897, "defense_concede_index": 0.807, "form_multiplier": 0.974, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.3, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.17, "team_ppg": 0.93, "opponent_ppg": 1.4 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0424, "attack_index": 0.91, "defense_concede_index": 1.203, "form_multiplier": 1.026, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.32, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.74, "team_ppg": 1.4, "opponent_ppg": 0.93 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sunderland vs Leeds. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.089, Away 1.166). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.327, Away 1.454 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sunderland", "away_squad": "Leeds United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.327, "away_lambda": 1.454, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.089, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.166 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.189, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T15:17:32Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }