{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0994, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0994, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0532, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Sociedad", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2189, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1029 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0994 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0978 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0956 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0644 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0512, "0-1": 0.052, "0-2": 0.0274, "0-3": 0.0095, "0-4": 0.0025, "0-5": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0978, "1-1": 0.1029, "1-2": 0.0532, "1-3": 0.0184, "1-4": 0.0048, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0956, "2-1": 0.0994, "2-2": 0.0517, "2-3": 0.0179, "2-4": 0.0047, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0619, "3-1": 0.0644, "3-2": 0.0335, "3-3": 0.0116, "3-4": 0.003, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0301, "4-1": 0.0313, "4-2": 0.0163, "4-3": 0.0056, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0117, "5-1": 0.0122, "5-2": 0.0063, "5-3": 0.0022, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0038, "6-1": 0.0039, "6-2": 0.0021, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0011, "7-1": 0.0011, "7-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5836, "draw": 0.2189, "away_win": 0.1975 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5546, "btts_no": 0.4454, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3535, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1431 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.07 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.71, "MCR": 6.78, "ATR": 6.86, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Sociedad vs Levante. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Real Sociedad 4W-3D-3L vs Levante over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal, Iván Romero", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Beñat Turrientes vs Jon Ander Olasagasti will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.13, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.944, "away_lambda": 1.04, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0071, "away_multiplier": 0.9929 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1029, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5836, "draw": 0.2189, "away_win": 0.1975 }, "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5836, "fair_spread": 0.904, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.944, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.04, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5546, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3535, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1431, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.5323, "probability": 0.4127, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Iván Romero (Levante)", "estimate": 0.3054, "probability": 0.2632, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.2237, "probability": 0.2004, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1463, "probability": 0.1361, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 727, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.5, "possession_home_pct": 51.0, "possession_away_pct": 49.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5836, "script": "Real Sociedad is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.90 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Levante must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Sociedad lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Orri Óskarsson against Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Orri Óskarsson, Mikel Oyarzabal; bench watchlist: Jon Gorrotxategi, Gonçalo Guedes, Job Ochieng.", "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Iván Romero; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov, Enzo Bardeli.", "Assist usage should flow through Sergio Gómez, Jon Ander Olasagasti; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Sociedad tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Levante is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Sociedad.", "Levante wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Sociedad": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Jon Martin": { "player_id": 1466116, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 185, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 38, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 5.8888, "dispossessed": 0.2543, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0961, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0901, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1645, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.691, "opponent_faced": "Víctor García", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0862, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0155, "finishing_factor": 1.2114, "creation_factor": 0.8361, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421073, "match_date": "2026-10-18 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Málaga", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0661, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11 14:15:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1976, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1425, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416319, "match_date": "2026-09-07", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 6, "rating": 4.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0611, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 1, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421051, "match_date": "2026-08-26", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416293, "match_date": "2026-08-21", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0667, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 41, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2491, "combined_rank_score": 899.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 549.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.82, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 1249.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8013, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Martin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luca Tevere", "ranking": 2486 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong-jun Kim", "ranking": 2487 }, { "player_name": "Akramjon Komilov", "ranking": 2488 }, { "player_name": "Javier Nicolás Cárcamo", "ranking": 2489 }, { "player_name": "Kyeong Baek", "ranking": 2490 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sardor Abdunabiev", "ranking": 2492 }, { "player_name": "Yastin Cuevas", "ranking": 2493 }, { "player_name": "Igor Paixão", "ranking": 2494 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Espí", "ranking": 2495 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Panichelli", "ranking": 2496 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.79, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", 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0.071771 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.038953 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035568 } ], "others_margin": 0.011962 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4570288360118866, "model_output": 0.457, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0478 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0451, "total": 0.457, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057985 }, { "name": 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"name": "rating", "margin": -0.026413 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017677 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015009 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012058 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.011829 } ], "others_margin": 0.016015 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9525, "tackles": 1.231, "tackles_won": 0.706, "clearances": 6.1129, "aerial_won": 2.5693, "total_shots": 0.4601, "rating": 6.8013, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 55.2265, "accurate_pass": 50.2406, "duels_won": 5.1513, "total_long_balls": 2.8888, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9861, "total_own_half_passes": 38.4396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.9911, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2494, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2598, "possession_lost": 5.8888, "dispossessed": 0.2543, "duels_lost": 3.2424, "aerial_lost": 1.3427, "total_contest": 0.4173, "won_contest": 0.0926, "ball_recovery": 3.5717, "challenges_lost": 0.3519, "fouls": 1.1039, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.8376, "goals": 0.0985, 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"contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0072, "total": 0.5302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05826 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028338 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020982 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.009667 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.009008 } ], "others_margin": -0.007251 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.619861125946045, "model_output": 6.6199, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0351 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0197 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.06, "total": 6.6199, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.035117 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.02045 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.019743 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016744 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.013309 } ], "others_margin": -0.059908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0052, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goals": 0.3823, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "assists": 0.2726, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0052, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 15, "history_shrink": 0.25, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goals": 0.3823, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "assists": 0.2726, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goals": 0.3823, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "assists": 0.2726, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.066, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0843, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2697, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.066, "after": 0.0843 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0172, "after": 0.0275 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0843, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2697, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4463, "fifa_rank": 4266.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0843, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2697, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "scorer_weight": 0.1054, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0501, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8185, "tackles": 1.788, "tackles_won": 1.0867, "clearances": 2.7458, "aerial_won": 0.883, "total_shots": 0.6655, "rating": 6.6199, "minutes": 62.98, "total_pass": 17.0731, "accurate_pass": 13.9492, "duels_won": 2.6631, "total_long_balls": 1.0992, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5792, "total_own_half_passes": 5.5637, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.871, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.5095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.0782, "crosses_total": 1.0292, "crosses_accurate": 0.1158, "touches": 29.0428, "possession_lost": 7.391, "dispossessed": 0.6562, "duels_lost": 2.9238, "aerial_lost": 0.4866, "total_contest": 1.999, "won_contest": 0.7713, "ball_recovery": 1.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.2347, "fouls": 0.3184, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0837, "goal_rate": 0.3823, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0843, "expected_assists": 0.0275, "shots_on_target": 0.6655, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2697, "ball_carries": 5.1302, "total_progression": 8.7075, "progressive_carries": 1.0638, "key_pass": 0.3884, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0808, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0271, "assist_rate": 0.2726, "provider_weight": 0.0344, "squad_weight_total": 1.3089, "weight_share": 0.0263, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Gómez", "weight": 0.244, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.244, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2235 } ] } } ] }, "Álex Remiro": { "player_id": 791773, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0679, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 27, "total_long_balls": 21, "accurate_long_balls": 9, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.5904, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 12.1995, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1367, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 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recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9698, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0679, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.1116, "accurate_pass": 27.1323, "total_long_balls": 21.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 9.4507, "touches": 49.2433, "clearances": 1.2414, "ball_recovery": 7.9975, "high_claims": 0.9707, "punches": 0.5904, "aerial_won": 0.1298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8928, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8922, "saves_inside_box": 2.0922, "possession_lost": 12.1995, "duels_won": 0.227, "duels_lost": 0.0123, "total_contest": 0.0013, "won_contest": 0.0013, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1438, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5286, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9106, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1367, "shots_faced": 10.8, "expected_saves": 2.64, "high_pressure_saves": 0.91, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9698, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0679, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.1116, "accurate_pass": 27.1323, "total_long_balls": 21.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 9.4507, "touches": 49.2433, "clearances": 1.2414, "ball_recovery": 7.9975, "high_claims": 0.9707, "punches": 0.5904, "aerial_won": 0.1298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8928, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8922, "saves_inside_box": 2.0922, "possession_lost": 12.1995, "duels_won": 0.227, "duels_lost": 0.0123, "total_contest": 0.0013, "won_contest": 0.0013, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1438, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5286, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9106, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1367, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.8, "after": 9.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.64, "after": 2.42 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.91, "after": 0.83 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9698, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0679, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.1116, "accurate_pass": 27.1323, "total_long_balls": 21.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 9.4507, "touches": 49.2433, "clearances": 1.2414, "ball_recovery": 7.9975, "high_claims": 0.9707, "punches": 0.5904, "aerial_won": 0.1298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8928, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8922, "saves_inside_box": 2.0922, "possession_lost": 12.1995, "duels_won": 0.227, "duels_lost": 0.0123, "total_contest": 0.0013, "won_contest": 0.0013, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1438, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5286, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9106, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1367, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"ball_recovery": 7.9975, "high_claims": 0.9707, "punches": 0.5904, "aerial_won": 0.1298, "sweeper_actions": 1.8928, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8922, "saves_inside_box": 2.0922, "possession_lost": 12.1995, "duels_won": 0.227, "duels_lost": 0.0123, "total_contest": 0.0013, "won_contest": 0.0013, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1438, "total_own_half_passes": 24.5286, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.9106, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1367, "shots_faced": 9.9, "expected_saves": 2.42, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero, Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9698, "goals_prevented": -0.0098, "rating": 7.0679, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 39.1116, "accurate_pass": 27.1323, "total_long_balls": 21.0653, "accurate_long_balls": 9.4507, "touches": 49.2433, "clearances": 1.2414, "ball_recovery": 7.9975, "high_claims": 0.9707, "punches": 0.5904, 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"match_date": "2026-10-18 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Málaga", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1024, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 63, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421067, "match_date": "2026-10-11 14:15:00 UTC", 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023971, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0245, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1254, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1601, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.846 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1254, "after": 0.1601 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0091, "after": 0.0145 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1601, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.846, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3265, "fifa_rank": 1444.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1601, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.846, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1479, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.1281, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0608, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.78, "tackles": 1.5054, "tackles_won": 0.9189, "clearances": 3.3078, "aerial_won": 1.0962, "total_shots": 0.3284, "rating": 6.6307, "minutes": 83.49, "total_pass": 51.0478, "accurate_pass": 48.3636, "duels_won": 3.3543, "total_long_balls": 2.7947, "accurate_long_balls": 1.135, "total_own_half_passes": 35.6902, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.92, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3576, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.4436, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.6158, "possession_lost": 3.3105, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.372, "aerial_lost": 0.686, "total_contest": 0.686, "won_contest": 0.3982, "ball_recovery": 2.0998, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3982, "fouls_drawn": 0.7367, "blocks": 0.686, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1601, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.173, "total_progression": 26.5852, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3284, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1479, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.846, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0123, "squad_weight_total": 1.3089, "weight_share": 0.0094, "creation_factor": 0.846, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Gómez", "weight": 0.244, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.244, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2235 } ] } } ] }, "Sergio Gómez": { "player_id": 855835, "position": "D", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0022, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9375, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.07, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5534, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2217, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5778, "fouls_drawn": 0.261, "blocks": 0.35, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1635, "assist_rate": 0.1635, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "shots_on_target": 0.1281, "big_chances_created": 0.3369, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 15.9501, "total_progression": 44.4429, "progressive_carries": 0.7302, "key_pass": 1.2941, "shots_off_target": 0.4253 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0022, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0175)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2302, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5807, "fouls_drawn": 0.2564, "blocks": 0.35, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1606, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.3369, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 15.9501, "total_progression": 44.4429, "progressive_carries": 0.7302, "key_pass": 1.2941, "shots_off_target": 0.4253 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0175, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9426, "prior_reliability": 0.2533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 5.2217, "after": 5.2302 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2302, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5807, "fouls_drawn": 0.2564, "blocks": 0.35, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1606, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.3369, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 15.9501, "total_progression": 44.4429, "progressive_carries": 0.7302, "key_pass": 1.2941, "shots_off_target": 0.4253 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2302, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5807, "fouls_drawn": 0.2564, "blocks": 0.35, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1606, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.3369, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 15.9501, "total_progression": 44.4429, "progressive_carries": 0.7302, "key_pass": 1.2941, "shots_off_target": 0.4253, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2302, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5807, "fouls_drawn": 0.2564, "blocks": 0.35, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0186, "expected_assists": 0.1323, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.3369, "xgot": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 15.9501, "total_progression": 44.4429, "progressive_carries": 0.7302, "key_pass": 1.2941, "shots_off_target": 0.4253, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2302, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5807, "fouls_drawn": 0.2564, "blocks": 0.35, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.2112, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.3369, "xgot": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 15.9501, "total_progression": 44.4429, "progressive_carries": 0.7302, "key_pass": 1.2941, "shots_off_target": 0.4253, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1552 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0186, "after": 0.0237 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1323, "after": 0.2112 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2302, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5807, "fouls_drawn": 0.2564, "blocks": 0.35, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.2112, "shots_on_target": 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FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, "total_long_balls": 3.6338, "accurate_long_balls": 2.358, "total_own_half_passes": 22.6026, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.1304, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.0266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.61, "crosses_total": 5.2302, "crosses_accurate": 0.8999, "touches": 72.7602, "possession_lost": 13.3612, "dispossessed": 0.2393, "duels_lost": 2.3223, "aerial_lost": 0.471, "total_contest": 0.9494, "won_contest": 0.7088, "ball_recovery": 5.1233, "challenges_lost": 0.9025, "fouls": 0.5807, "fouls_drawn": 0.2564, "blocks": 0.35, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0237, "expected_assists": 0.2112, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "big_chances_created": 0.3369, "xgot": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 15.9501, "total_progression": 44.4429, "progressive_carries": 0.7302, "key_pass": 1.2941, "shots_off_target": 0.4253, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0234, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.1552, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0234, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.019, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.009, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9385, "tackles": 1.7771, "tackles_won": 1.073, "clearances": 2.5682, "aerial_won": 0.7752, "total_shots": 0.5567, "rating": 6.7716, "minutes": 84.83, "total_pass": 47.6293, "accurate_pass": 41.7404, "duels_won": 3.3366, 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0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1466 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0444 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0344 } ], "others": -0.1113, "total": 1.0435, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.146572 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.064751 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.044438 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037141 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.034409 } ], "others_margin": -0.111116 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.901925563812256, "model_output": 6.9019, "scale": 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"opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey, Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey, Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey, Daniel Requena", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0611, "skill_edge": 0.0476, "height_edge": -0.006, "attacker_skill": 0.5431, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "market_value": 1700000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Daniel Requena", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0596 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3334, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0552, "after": 1.1197 }, { 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0542 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0047, "total": 6.7816, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05425 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01561 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015258 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.014987 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.014182 } ], "others_margin": -0.004794 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0066, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.381, "goals": 0.473, "goal_rate": 0.473, "shots_on_target": 1.0099, "total_shots": 2.3207, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.6383, "rating": 6.7816, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 0.547, "crosses_accurate": 0.0946, "touches": 21.3488, "possession_lost": 7.9179, "dispossessed": 0.65, "duels_lost": 4.277, "aerial_lost": 1.6498, "total_contest": 0.5088, "won_contest": 0.2161, "ball_recovery": 0.9048, "challenges_lost": 0.3555, "fouls": 1.329, "fouls_drawn": 1.0972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1695, "tackles": 0.2633, "clearances": 0.2123, "blocks": 0.1994, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9177, "xgot": 0.7178, "offsides": 0.7831, "ball_carries": 4.4837, "total_progression": 13.906, "progressive_carries": 0.9904, "shots_off_target": 1.3108 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0066, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.381, "goals": 0.473, "goal_rate": 0.473, "shots_on_target": 1.0099, "total_shots": 2.3207, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.6383, "rating": 6.7816, "minutes": 77.63, "total_pass": 11.3771, "accurate_pass": 7.066, "duels_won": 3.3579, "total_long_balls": 0.2125, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0494, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3112, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7413, "crosses_total": 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"name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0842 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0269 } ], "others": 0.1405, "total": 1.2961, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.287496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118749 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.079917 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.029433 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.023528 } ], "others_margin": 0.114827 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.896017074584961, "model_output": 6.896, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0062, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.212, "goals": 0.2142, "goal_rate": 0.2142, "shots_on_target": 0.6804, "total_shots": 1.9125, "expected_assists": 0.112, "key_pass": 1.3042, "rating": 6.896, "minutes": 78.87, "total_pass": 24.7406, "accurate_pass": 19.267, "duels_won": 3.7048, "total_long_balls": 1.1348, "accurate_long_balls": 0.733, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0627, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5994, "crosses_total": 0.328, "crosses_accurate": 0.0978, "touches": 38.651, "possession_lost": 10.9803, "dispossessed": 1.0623, "duels_lost": 4.0889, "aerial_lost": 0.8823, "total_contest": 1.3286, "won_contest": 0.4813, "ball_recovery": 2.9521, "challenges_lost": 0.4609, "fouls": 0.8648, "fouls_drawn": 1.1754, "assists": 0.1648, "assist_rate": 0.1648, "interceptions": 0.3599, "tackles_won": 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1.378707, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.456367 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.059189 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.05407 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053777 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.049398 } ], "others_margin": -0.090843 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09475889801979065, "model_output": 0.0948, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0695 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0061 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0.0985 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.057 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0335 } ], "others": 0.1633, "total": 1.1068, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.211546 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.111818 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.06314 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.040003 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.036153 } ], "others_margin": 0.159661 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.882578372955322, "model_output": 6.8826, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0635 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": 0.0344, "total": 6.8826, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06354 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018188 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013983 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013478 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013186 } ], "others_margin": 0.034419 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0036, quality 0.603)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1587, "goals": 0.2177, "goal_rate": 0.2177, "shots_on_target": 0.545, "total_shots": 1.6325, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "key_pass": 1.1108, "rating": 6.8826, "minutes": 66.85, "total_pass": 23.9344, "accurate_pass": 19.2919, "duels_won": 4.0414, "total_long_balls": 0.9328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5643, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4287, "crosses_total": 2.2798, "crosses_accurate": 0.4306, "touches": 41.6836, "possession_lost": 12.7326, "dispossessed": 1.8204, "duels_lost": 5.723, "aerial_lost": 0.4245, "total_contest": 3.5692, "won_contest": 1.9141, "ball_recovery": 3.3291, "challenges_lost": 0.6691, "fouls": 1.2002, "fouls_drawn": 0.9183, "assists": 0.1085, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "interceptions": 0.4537, 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out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1612, "goal_rate": 0.2224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5506, "total_shots": 1.6554, "expected_assists": 0.0951, "key_pass": 1.1108, "rating": 6.8826, "minutes": 66.85, "total_pass": 23.9344, "accurate_pass": 19.2919, "duels_won": 4.0414, "total_long_balls": 0.9328, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5643, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4287, "crosses_total": 2.2744, "crosses_accurate": 0.4306, "touches": 41.6836, "possession_lost": 12.7326, "dispossessed": 1.8204, "duels_lost": 5.723, "aerial_lost": 0.4245, "total_contest": 3.5692, "won_contest": 1.9141, "ball_recovery": 3.3291, "challenges_lost": 0.6691, "fouls": 1.2007, "fouls_drawn": 0.9224, "assist_rate": 0.1071, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4479, "tackles_won": 0.5883, "tackles": 1.0504, "clearances": 0.2993, "blocks": 0.2759, "big_chances_created": 0.1795, "big_chances_missed": 0.1088, 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "expected_assists": 0.1303, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 13, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416310, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", 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"match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0445, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2085, "combined_rank_score": 793.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 16.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1571.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7554, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Aramburu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Bakambu", "ranking": 2080 }, { "player_name": "Renato Veiga", "ranking": 2081 }, { "player_name": "Shodiyor Shodiboev", "ranking": 2082 }, { "player_name": "Matija Rom", "ranking": 2083 }, { "player_name": "Franco Rami", "ranking": 2084 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nikita Haikin", "ranking": 2086 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Mouriño", "ranking": 2087 }, { "player_name": "Mason Mount", "ranking": 2088 }, { "player_name": "Thomas Partey", "ranking": 2089 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Izzatov", "ranking": 2090 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.786, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", 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"margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.952545 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.094089 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.062361 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.051463 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.045596 } ], "others_margin": -0.153294 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4966939687728882, "model_output": 0.4967, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7902 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1142 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0379 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0219 } ], "others": -0.1048, "total": 0.4967, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.848143 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.176483 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.065407 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.059004 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.035698 } ], "others_margin": -0.191566 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.20107077062129974, "model_output": 0.2011, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2587 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0376, "total": 0.2011, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.258698 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.017126 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011578 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.011359 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.009372 } ], "others_margin": -0.037643 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755380630493164, "model_output": 6.7554, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0201 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0571, "total": 6.7554, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.022814 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.020133 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01316 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.011788 } ], "others_margin": -0.057187 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0020, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5549, "tackles": 0.9491, "tackles_won": 0.5386, "clearances": 0.973, "aerial_won": 0.4977, "total_shots": 0.2015, "rating": 6.7554, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 18.23, "accurate_pass": 15.7997, "duels_won": 2.6127, "total_long_balls": 1.5706, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4945, "total_own_half_passes": 6.4381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6632, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7919, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1364, "crosses_total": 1.5814, "crosses_accurate": 0.7748, "touches": 29.2798, "possession_lost": 4.0457, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6154, "aerial_lost": 0.1931, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2312, "challenges_lost": 0.3862, "fouls": 1.0361, "fouls_drawn": 0.5346, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027445 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011147 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.005844 } ], "others_margin": -0.019058 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2477, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.028, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0648, "total_shots": 0.2172, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2548, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1587, "tackles_won": 0.1449, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1749, "fouls_drawn": 0.237, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1524 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0071, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2477, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.028, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0647, "total_shots": 0.2168, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2544, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1584, "tackles_won": 0.1447, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1746, "fouls_drawn": 0.2366, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1524 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2202, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.8 to 19.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.027, "assist_rate": 0.027, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.14, "projection_minutes": 19.82, "minutes_scale": 0.9657, "appearance_probability": 0.713 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.027, "assist_rate": 0.027, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1691, "creation_factor": 1.0922 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.713 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1691, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1369, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1691, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "scorer_weight": 0.0136, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0064, "finishing_factor": 1.1691, "appearance_weight": 0.713, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0154, "total": 6.7537, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070595 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "margin": 0.014672 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011556 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010874 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.009489 } ], "others_margin": 0.015555 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.0684, "shots_on_target": 0.29, "total_shots": 0.8434, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "key_pass": 0.6254, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5295, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1524, "fouls_drawn": 0.1988, "assists": 0.0546, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2495, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.0461, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.5534 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0030)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goals": 0.0682, "goal_rate": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.2931, "total_shots": 0.8488, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "key_pass": 0.6254, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5261, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1519, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "assists": 0.0544, "assist_rate": 0.0544, "interceptions": 0.0887, "tackles_won": 0.25, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.5534 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.003, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2426, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8434, "after": 0.8488 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 20.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 20.79, "projection_minutes": 21.83, "minutes_scale": 0.9524, "appearance_probability": 0.722 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.722 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.071, "after": 0.0818 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 961, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0539, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.065, "scorer_weight": 0.0581, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0539, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0773, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0773, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "provider_weight": 0.0688, "squad_weight_total": 1.3089, "weight_share": 0.0526, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Gómez", "weight": 0.244, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.244, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2235 } ] } } ] }, "Job Ochieng": { "player_id": 1111081, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 185, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 86, "progressive_carries": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, 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"others_margin": 0.029272 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.577960968017578, "model_output": 6.578, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0713 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 6.578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071315 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024918 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019922 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019801 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.018243 } ], "others_margin": -0.030002 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9930, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.295, "total_shots": 0.9727, "expected_assists": 0.03, "key_pass": 0.3427, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 20.61, "total_pass": 12.8549, "accurate_pass": 8.618, "duels_won": 2.4564, "total_long_balls": 0.1062, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0457, "crosses_total": 1.2906, "crosses_accurate": 0.1728, "touches": 27.4926, "possession_lost": 10.8331, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 5.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 2.5146, "won_contest": 0.9312, "ball_recovery": 3.1985, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.0802, "fouls_drawn": 0.1728, "assists": 0.5847, "assist_rate": 0.5847, "interceptions": 0.1248, "tackles_won": 0.5367, "tackles": 1.0068, "clearances": 0.1248, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0749, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 7.3896, "total_progression": 70.1849, "progressive_carries": 3.1731, "shots_off_target": 0.6777 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.6 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assists": 0.7193, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0921, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 20.61, "minutes_scale": 1.2303, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assists": 0.7193, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0921, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0921, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "assists", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1115, "after": 0.08 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6248, "fifa_rank": 8154.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "scorer_weight": 0.0678, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0322, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0321, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0321, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "provider_weight": 0.0414, "squad_weight_total": 1.3089, "weight_share": 0.0316, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Gómez", "weight": 0.244, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.244, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2235 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Gonçalo Guedes": { "player_id": 280979, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 179, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 21, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0539, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0773, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421073, "match_date": "2026-10-18 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Málaga", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416297, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1485, "expected_assists": 0.0956, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real 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"is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1098, "expected_assists": 0.2497, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 961, "combined_rank_score": 481.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", 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"rating", "margin": 0.043532 } ], "others_margin": 0.13235 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6261855959892273, "model_output": 0.6262, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.249 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0609 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0477 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": 0.0949, "total": 0.6262, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.461193 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.133886 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093624 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.043966 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.039533 } ], "others_margin": 0.164568 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7537102699279785, "model_output": 6.7537, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0706 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": 0.0154, "total": 6.7537, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070595 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "margin": 0.014672 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011556 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.010874 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.009489 } ], "others_margin": 0.015555 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.471)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goals": 0.0684, "goal_rate": 0.0684, "shots_on_target": 0.29, "total_shots": 0.8434, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "key_pass": 0.6254, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5295, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1524, "fouls_drawn": 0.1988, "assists": 0.0546, "assist_rate": 0.0546, "interceptions": 0.089, "tackles_won": 0.2495, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.0461, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.5534 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5700000, "quality_factor": 0.4708, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0030)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0638, "goals": 0.0682, "goal_rate": 0.0682, "shots_on_target": 0.2931, "total_shots": 0.8488, "expected_assists": 0.0746, "key_pass": 0.6254, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 21.83, "total_pass": 8.3647, "accurate_pass": 6.5028, "duels_won": 1.5502, "total_long_balls": 0.3312, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2669, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9258, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2074, "crosses_total": 1.5261, "crosses_accurate": 0.37, "touches": 15.238, "possession_lost": 4.687, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2849, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0768, "won_contest": 0.5862, "ball_recovery": 1.5472, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1519, "fouls_drawn": 0.1994, "assists": 0.0544, "assist_rate": 0.0544, "interceptions": 0.0887, "tackles_won": 0.25, "tackles": 0.4483, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2101, "xgot": 0.1293, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.4673, "total_progression": 24.3333, "progressive_carries": 1.1332, "shots_off_target": 0.5534 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.003, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2426, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8434, "after": 0.8488 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 20.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 20.79, "projection_minutes": 21.83, "minutes_scale": 0.9524, "appearance_probability": 0.722 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assists": 0.0518, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.071, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1231, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.722 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.071, "after": 0.0818 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 961, "fifa_rank": 517.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0539, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0539, "goal_rate": 0.065, "scorer_weight": 0.0581, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0276, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2791, "total_shots": 0.8084, "expected_assists": 0.0818, "key_pass": 0.5956, "rating": 6.7537, "minutes": 20.79, "total_pass": 7.9662, "accurate_pass": 6.193, "duels_won": 1.4763, "total_long_balls": 0.3154, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2542, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9593, "crosses_total": 1.4534, "crosses_accurate": 0.3524, "touches": 14.512, "possession_lost": 4.4637, "dispossessed": 0.3904, "duels_lost": 1.2237, "aerial_lost": 0.2693, "total_contest": 1.0255, "won_contest": 0.5583, "ball_recovery": 1.4735, "challenges_lost": 0.0464, "fouls": 0.1447, "fouls_drawn": 0.1899, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0845, "tackles_won": 0.2381, "tackles": 0.4269, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2001, "xgot": 0.1135, "offsides": 0.046, "ball_carries": 5.2068, "total_progression": 23.174, "progressive_carries": 1.0792, "shots_off_target": 0.527, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.722, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0539, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0773, "finishing_factor": 1.0379, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0773, "assist_rate": 0.0518, "provider_weight": 0.0688, "squad_weight_total": 1.3089, "weight_share": 0.0526, "creation_factor": 0.8413, "appearance_weight": 0.722, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Gómez", "weight": 0.244, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.244, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2235 } ] } } ] }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "player_id": 1216309, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 177, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, 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0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3056 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2478 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0278 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.027 } ], "others": -0.1305, "total": 0.2156, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.305568 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.247814 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.036193 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.027819 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.026961 } ], "others_margin": -0.130482 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.743308067321777, "model_output": 6.7433, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0976 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0111 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": -0.0058 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 6.7433, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.09761 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.027445 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02164 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.011147 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.005844 } ], "others_margin": -0.019058 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0071, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2477, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.028, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0648, "total_shots": 0.2172, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2548, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1587, "tackles_won": 0.1449, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1749, "fouls_drawn": 0.237, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1524 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 27000000, "quality_factor": 0.6941, "boost_factor": 1.0071, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0016)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2477, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "assists": 0.028, "assist_rate": 0.028, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "goals": 0.0241, "goal_rate": 0.0241, "shots_on_target": 0.0647, "total_shots": 0.2168, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.82, "total_pass": 10.2048, "accurate_pass": 9.0628, "duels_won": 1.006, "total_long_balls": 0.7641, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.393, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6698, "crosses_total": 0.2544, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.4785, "possession_lost": 2.6127, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.7069, "aerial_won": 0.2949, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1584, "tackles_won": 0.1447, "tackles": 0.2115, "clearances": 0.7792, "total_contest": 0.3291, "won_contest": 0.2626, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1746, "fouls_drawn": 0.2366, "blocks": 0.1275, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.3215, "total_progression": 12.2685, "progressive_carries": 0.0987, "shots_off_target": 0.1524 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0016, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2202, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Sociedad" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.8 to 19.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.027, "assist_rate": 0.027, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.14, "projection_minutes": 19.82, "minutes_scale": 0.9657, "appearance_probability": 0.713 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assists": 0.027, "assist_rate": 0.027, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "goals": 0.0233, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0127, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1691, "creation_factor": 1.0922 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.713 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1691, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1369, "fifa_rank": 848.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2392, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "assist_rate": 0.027, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0625, "total_shots": 0.2097, "rating": 6.7433, "minutes": 19.14, "total_pass": 9.8547, "accurate_pass": 8.7519, "duels_won": 0.9715, "total_long_balls": 0.7379, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3095, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4215, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2766, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.4332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4753, "crosses_total": 0.2457, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9818, "possession_lost": 2.5231, "dispossessed": 0.2283, "duels_lost": 0.6826, "aerial_won": 0.2848, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.153, "tackles_won": 0.1397, "tackles": 0.2042, "clearances": 0.7525, "total_contest": 0.3178, "won_contest": 0.2536, "challenges_lost": 0.237, "fouls": 0.1686, "fouls_drawn": 0.2285, "blocks": 0.1231, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.1732, "total_progression": 11.8476, "progressive_carries": 0.0953, "shots_off_target": 0.1472, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.713, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.14, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1691, "creation_factor": 1.0922, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0115, "goal_rate": 0.0233, "scorer_weight": 0.0136, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, 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0.3451046347618103, "model_output": 0.3451, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2865 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": 0.0099, "total": 0.3451, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.553427 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080881 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068621 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.0427 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.038391 } ], "others_margin": 0.029272 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.577960968017578, "model_output": 6.578, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0713 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0249 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0182 } ], "others": -0.0301, "total": 6.578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071315 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024918 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019922 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.019801 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.018243 } ], "others_margin": -0.030002 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9930, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0906, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.295, "total_shots": 0.9727, "expected_assists": 0.03, "key_pass": 0.3427, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 20.61, "total_pass": 12.8549, "accurate_pass": 8.618, "duels_won": 2.4564, "total_long_balls": 0.1062, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1062, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0587, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0457, "crosses_total": 1.2906, "crosses_accurate": 0.1728, "touches": 27.4926, "possession_lost": 10.8331, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 5.2199, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 2.5146, "won_contest": 0.9312, "ball_recovery": 3.1985, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.0802, "fouls_drawn": 0.1728, "assists": 0.5847, "assist_rate": 0.5847, "interceptions": 0.1248, "tackles_won": 0.5367, "tackles": 1.0068, "clearances": 0.1248, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0749, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 7.3896, "total_progression": 70.1849, "progressive_carries": 3.1731, "shots_off_target": 0.6777 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.6 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assists": 0.7193, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0921, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 20.61, "minutes_scale": 1.2303, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assists": 0.7193, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0921, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1115, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0921, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "assists", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.94 (squad xG sum 1.5225, xG scale 1.2768, xA scale 1.5962, team xA 1.26 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.944, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5225, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7916, "team_expected_assists": 1.2636, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2768, "xa_scale": 1.5962, "opponent_lambda": 1.04, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1115, "after": 0.08 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6248, "fifa_rank": 8154.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0746, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "scorer_weight": 0.0678, "squad_weight_total": 2.1049, "weight_share": 0.0322, "finishing_factor": 0.8477, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Orri Óskarsson", "weight": 0.6471, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6471, "runner_up": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2968 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "weight": 0.2968, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2968, "runner_up": "Orri Óskarsson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2754 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0869, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3629, "total_shots": 1.1967, "expected_assists": 0.0331, "key_pass": 0.4216, "rating": 6.578, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 15.8151, "accurate_pass": 10.6025, "duels_won": 3.0221, "total_long_balls": 0.1307, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1307, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.1447, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4379, "crosses_total": 1.5878, "crosses_accurate": 0.2126, "touches": 33.8235, "possession_lost": 13.3277, "dispossessed": 1.56, "duels_lost": 6.4219, "aerial_lost": 0.7876, "total_contest": 3.0937, "won_contest": 1.1456, "ball_recovery": 3.935, "challenges_lost": 0.4119, "fouls": 1.3289, "fouls_drawn": 0.2126, "assist_rate": 0.7193, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1535, "tackles_won": 0.6603, "tackles": 1.2386, "clearances": 0.1535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0661, "offsides": 0.3639, "ball_carries": 9.0913, "total_progression": 86.347, "progressive_carries": 3.9038, "shots_off_target": 0.8338, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.729, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, 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0.6917102932929993, "model_output": 0.6917, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1927 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0598 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0466 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0267 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.6917, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.251433 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.071535 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059457 }, { "name": 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{ "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016422 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.01587 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012201 } ], "others_margin": 0.008023 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9965, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3557, "goals": 0.3687, "goal_rate": 0.3687, "shots_on_target": 0.9622, "total_shots": 2.1875, "expected_assists": 0.0599, "key_pass": 0.6893, "rating": 6.8814, "minutes": 81.94, "total_pass": 16.4175, "accurate_pass": 12.5999, "duels_won": 3.6994, "total_long_balls": 1.0498, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6581, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0976, "crosses_total": 1.5501, "crosses_accurate": 0.0822, "touches": 31.0773, "possession_lost": 9.0807, "dispossessed": 0.9227, "duels_lost": 5.0715, "aerial_lost": 1.5754, "total_contest": 1.4707, "won_contest": 0.4557, "ball_recovery": 2.7553, "challenges_lost": 0.8377, "fouls": 0.8599, "fouls_drawn": 0.7096, "assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0323, "interceptions": 0.2119, 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2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Fort, Mamadou Sarr", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Fort, Mamadou Sarr", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Héctor Fort, Mamadou Sarr", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7521, "skill_edge": -0.1087, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6789, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Héctor Fort", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", 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0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Héctor Fort, Mamadou Sarr", "opponent_faced": "Héctor Fort, Mamadou Sarr", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.253, "goal_rate": 0.2773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7237, "total_shots": 1.6452, "expected_assists": 0.0675, "key_pass": 0.6893, "rating": 6.8814, "minutes": 81.94, "total_pass": 16.4175, "accurate_pass": 12.5999, "duels_won": 3.6994, 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"margin": 0.283349 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072301 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062653 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.039656 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.029014 } ], "others_margin": -0.10228 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.95627498626709, "model_output": 6.9563, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0764 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0556 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": 0.0328, "total": 6.9563, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.076405 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055643 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.027143 }, { "name": "wasFouled", "margin": 0.014797 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012571 } ], "others_margin": 0.032697 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3228, "goal_rate": 0.3188, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8246, "total_shots": 2.1067, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.6586, "rating": 6.9563, "minutes": 72.62, "total_pass": 15.3312, "accurate_pass": 11.2636, "duels_won": 5.1109, "total_long_balls": 0.6084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4133, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.508, "crosses_total": 0.5139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0403, "touches": 30.7907, "possession_lost": 10.2459, "dispossessed": 1.3155, "duels_lost": 5.9469, "aerial_lost": 1.7257, "total_contest": 2.0592, "won_contest": 0.9756, "ball_recovery": 2.6649, "challenges_lost": 0.9168, "fouls": 1.0436, "fouls_drawn": 1.8402, "assist_rate": 0.0057, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.226, "tackles_won": 0.4248, "tackles": 1.2046, "clearances": 0.3586, "blocks": 0.0068, 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"stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3054, "goal_rate": 0.3188, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8246, "total_shots": 2.1067, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "key_pass": 0.6586, "rating": 6.9563, "minutes": 72.62, "total_pass": 15.3312, "accurate_pass": 11.2636, "duels_won": 5.1109, "total_long_balls": 0.6084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4133, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8096, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.508, "crosses_total": 0.5139, "crosses_accurate": 0.0403, "touches": 30.7907, "possession_lost": 10.2459, "dispossessed": 1.3155, "duels_lost": 5.9469, "aerial_lost": 1.7257, "total_contest": 2.0592, "won_contest": 0.9756, "ball_recovery": 2.6649, "challenges_lost": 0.9168, "fouls": 1.0436, "fouls_drawn": 1.8402, "assist_rate": 0.0057, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.226, "tackles_won": 0.4248, "tackles": 1.2046, "clearances": 0.3586, "blocks": 0.0068, "big_chances_created": 0.1949, "big_chances_missed": 0.4709, "xgot": 0.1872, "offsides": 0.1346, "ball_carries": 9.6921, "total_progression": 23.9954, "progressive_carries": 1.3074, "shots_off_target": 1.2722, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.908, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Sergio Gómez", "opponent_faced": "Sergio Gómez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9893, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3228, "after": 0.3054 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", 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"margin": -0.241153 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.185939 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.103426 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.069481 } ], "others_margin": 0.047657 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.701870322227478, "model_output": 0.7019, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2483 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1225 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0741 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0399 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.7019, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.24826 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.122546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074096 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046549 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.039949 } ], "others_margin": -0.002286 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6760711669921875, "model_output": 6.6761, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0604 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0391 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": -0.045, "total": 6.6761, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060441 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.039149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.025361 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.021618 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.018741 } ], "others_margin": -0.04497 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4742, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.187, "total_shots": 0.693, "rating": 6.6761, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 9.7099, "accurate_pass": 9.3837, "duels_won": 1.9084, "total_long_balls": 0.71, "accurate_long_balls": 0.71, "total_own_half_passes": 5.776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4498, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.7826, "possession_lost": 1.9084, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.597, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9787, "tackles": 0.9787, "clearances": 0.2773, "total_contest": 1.3049, "won_contest": 0.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.6611, "fouls": 1.6311, "fouls_drawn": 0.6035, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5012, "total_progression": 18.0399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.506 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1500000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9873, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4742, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0501, "goals": 0.0495, "goal_rate": 0.0495, "shots_on_target": 0.187, "total_shots": 0.693, "rating": 6.6761, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 9.7099, "accurate_pass": 9.3837, "duels_won": 1.9084, "total_long_balls": 0.71, "accurate_long_balls": 0.71, "total_own_half_passes": 5.776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4498, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.7826, "possession_lost": 1.9084, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.597, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9787, "tackles": 0.9787, "clearances": 0.2773, "total_contest": 1.3049, "won_contest": 0.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.6611, "fouls": 1.6311, "fouls_drawn": 0.6035, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5012, "total_progression": 18.0399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.506 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4742, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goals": 0.0481, "goal_rate": 0.0481, "shots_on_target": 0.1816, "total_shots": 0.6731, "rating": 6.6761, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 9.7099, "accurate_pass": 9.3837, "duels_won": 1.9084, "total_long_balls": 0.71, "accurate_long_balls": 0.71, "total_own_half_passes": 5.776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4498, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.7826, "possession_lost": 1.9084, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.597, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.3262, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.9787, "tackles": 0.9787, "clearances": 0.2773, "total_contest": 1.3049, "won_contest": 0.3262, "challenges_lost": 0.6611, "fouls": 1.6311, "fouls_drawn": 0.6035, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5012, "total_progression": 18.0399, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4915, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9713, 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"changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.693, "after": 0.6731 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.506, "after": 0.4915 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.187, "after": 0.1816 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4742, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0296, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0481, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1816, "total_shots": 0.6731, "rating": 6.6761, "minutes": 87.33, "total_pass": 9.7099, "accurate_pass": 9.3837, "duels_won": 1.9084, "total_long_balls": 0.71, "accurate_long_balls": 0.71, "total_own_half_passes": 5.776, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4498, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9339, "crosses_total": 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false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028705 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.024364 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016259 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.00686 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.006667 } ], "others_margin": -0.037228 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9967, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assists": 0.0489, "assist_rate": 0.0489, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.1517, "total_shots": 0.6064, "rating": 6.7995, "minutes": 85.89, "total_pass": 35.7518, "accurate_pass": 32.1451, "duels_won": 3.2983, "total_long_balls": 2.2099, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3205, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1468, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.11, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.6051, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0351, "crosses_total": 0.2453, "crosses_accurate": 0.0636, "touches": 47.1264, "possession_lost": 5.7615, "dispossessed": 0.638, "duels_lost": 4.0602, "aerial_won": 1.1859, "aerial_lost": 0.8942, "interceptions": 0.6311, "tackles_won": 0.7521, "tackles": 1.3271, "clearances": 2.0594, "total_contest": 0.4234, "won_contest": 0.0137, "challenges_lost": 0.735, "fouls": 1.4964, "fouls_drawn": 0.7716, "blocks": 0.6503, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.8581, "total_progression": 40.2725, "progressive_carries": 0.3087, "shots_off_target": 0.4547 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9967, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0210)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5287, "expected_assists": 0.0382, "assists": 0.0479, "assist_rate": 0.0479, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "goals": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0384, "shots_on_target": 0.1485, "total_shots": 0.5937, "rating": 6.7995, "minutes": 85.89, "total_pass": 35.7518, "accurate_pass": 32.1451, "duels_won": 3.2983, "total_long_balls": 2.2099, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3205, 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"pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.028013 } ], "others_margin": -0.029057 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2630178928375244, "model_output": 1.263, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.149 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0314 } ], "others": 0.0524, "total": 1.263, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148969 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.043236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041717 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038159 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.031407 } ], "others_margin": 0.0525 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.859738349914551, "model_output": 6.8597, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0159 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0137, "total": 6.8597, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026706 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.019144 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015885 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.011561 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01058 } ], "others_margin": -0.013562 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.13, "assists": 0.1509, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "expected_goals": 0.1284, "goals": 0.1533, "goal_rate": 0.1533, "shots_on_target": 0.4662, "total_shots": 1.2602, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.7264, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.0953, "xgot": 0.1944, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.794 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.13, "assists": 0.1509, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "expected_goals": 0.1284, "goals": 0.1533, "goal_rate": 0.1533, "shots_on_target": 0.4662, "total_shots": 1.2602, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.7264, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.0953, "xgot": 0.1944, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.794 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.13, "assists": 0.1509, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "expected_goals": 0.1172, "goals": 0.1399, "goal_rate": 0.1399, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.1499, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.1774, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.7245, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "skill_edge": -0.0476, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.5431, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "market_value": 10600000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.5431 } ], "xg_override": 0.1172 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7264, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2602, "after": 1.1499 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.794, "after": 0.7245 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4662, "after": 0.4254 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1944, "after": 0.1774 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1533, "after": 0.1399 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1284, "after": 0.1172 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0953, "after": 0.087 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.13, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1172, "goal_rate": 0.1399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.1499, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.1774, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.7245, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.1463, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1108, "goal_rate": 0.1399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.1499, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.1678, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.7245, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1358, "creation_factor": 1.1161 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1172, "after": 0.1108 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.13, "after": 0.1463 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.1463, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1108, "goal_rate": 0.1399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.1499, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.1678, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.7245, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1358, "creation_factor": 1.1161, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 320, "fifa_rank": 203.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.1463, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1108, "goal_rate": 0.1399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.1499, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.1678, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.7245, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Beñat Turrientes", "opponent_faced": "Beñat Turrientes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1049, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1358, "creation_factor": 1.1161, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1049, "goal_rate": 0.1399, "scorer_weight": 0.1258, "squad_weight_total": 1.0647, "weight_share": 0.1182, "finishing_factor": 1.1358, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5126, "expected_assists": 0.1463, "assist_rate": 0.1509, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1108, "goal_rate": 0.1399, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4254, "total_shots": 1.1499, "rating": 6.8597, "minutes": 83.54, "total_pass": 28.8704, "accurate_pass": 19.7103, "duels_won": 4.7173, "total_long_balls": 3.7188, "accurate_long_balls": 1.208, "total_own_half_passes": 10.1181, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5195, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7524, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1908, "crosses_total": 4.7204, "crosses_accurate": 0.9871, "touches": 45.9428, "possession_lost": 16.2591, "dispossessed": 0.7718, "duels_lost": 4.3117, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2927, "interceptions": 0.6664, "tackles_won": 1.2327, "tackles": 1.9253, "clearances": 0.6776, "total_contest": 1.4436, "won_contest": 0.752, "challenges_lost": 0.8315, "fouls": 0.7497, "fouls_drawn": 1.3138, "blocks": 0.1879, "big_chances_created": 0.3984, "big_chances_missed": 0.087, "xgot": 0.1678, "ball_carries": 10.1325, "total_progression": 41.4394, "progressive_carries": 1.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.7245, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central 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0.0576 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 0.4266, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.117079 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057592 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.020441 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.01578 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.007685 } ], "others_margin": -0.028986 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.747154235839844, "model_output": 6.7472, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0262 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0495, "total": 6.7472, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.026158 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.019497 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.012964 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.011829 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.009303 } ], "others_margin": -0.049535 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 37, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9991, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0263, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 15.7745, "total_progression": 64.9037, "progressive_carries": 1.0078, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.3661 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0263, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 15.7745, "total_progression": 64.9037, "progressive_carries": 1.0078, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.3661 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0263, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 15.7745, "total_progression": 64.9037, "progressive_carries": 1.0078, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.3661, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0594, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 15.7745, "total_progression": 64.9037, "progressive_carries": 1.0078, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.3661, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0026, "ball_carries": 15.7745, "total_progression": 64.9037, "progressive_carries": 1.0078, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.3661, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.96, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0594, "after": 0.0669 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0669, 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appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0026, 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projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9373, "tackles": 3.2948, "tackles_won": 1.7715, "clearances": 2.8649, "aerial_won": 0.9635, "total_shots": 0.4262, "rating": 6.7472, "minutes": 87.58, "total_pass": 37.0212, "accurate_pass": 30.3848, "duels_won": 5.7777, "total_long_balls": 5.5345, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0612, "total_own_half_passes": 21.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7711, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6137, "crosses_total": 1.4153, "crosses_accurate": 0.2351, "touches": 59.7653, "possession_lost": 11.34, "dispossessed": 0.4933, "duels_lost": 5.5608, "aerial_lost": 1.0809, "total_contest": 1.14, "won_contest": 0.4529, "ball_recovery": 3.7789, "challenges_lost": 2.5624, "fouls": 0.7586, "fouls_drawn": 0.8883, "blocks": 0.2738, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.0601, "big_chances_created": 0.0824, "xgot": 0.0026, "ball_carries": 15.7745, "total_progression": 64.9037, "progressive_carries": 1.0078, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.3661, "opponent_faced": "Takefusa Kubo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0047, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0647, "finishing_factor": 0.96, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0647, "assist_rate": 0.0263, "provider_weight": 0.0535, "squad_weight_total": 0.6667, "weight_share": 0.0803, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1633, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1633, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.052, "total": 6.8004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017252 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.015789 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.014196 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010504 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010459 } ], "others_margin": 0.051896 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0925, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.756, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3064, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4414, "fouls_drawn": 0.7703, "blocks": 0.3189, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0591)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0591, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9458, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.756, "after": 0.8045 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4414, "after": 0.4153 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0925, "after": 1.0838 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7703, "after": 0.762 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.005, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "creation_factor": 0.8726 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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949.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0047, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "creation_factor": 0.8726, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0047, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0043, "squad_weight_total": 1.0647, "weight_share": 0.004, "finishing_factor": 0.9091, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 1.225, "tackles_won": 0.8045, "clearances": 5.1141, "aerial_won": 1.8305, "total_shots": 0.3067, "rating": 6.8004, "minutes": 85.12, "total_pass": 45.0961, "accurate_pass": 41.7077, "duels_won": 3.8931, "total_long_balls": 4.0773, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3212, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4507, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.752, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6453, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9557, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.2935, "possession_lost": 3.6269, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.2806, "aerial_lost": 0.8391, "total_contest": 0.2525, "won_contest": 0.2525, "ball_recovery": 2.9483, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4153, "fouls_drawn": 0.762, "blocks": 0.3189, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0082, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2028, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.8229, "total_progression": 31.5648, "progressive_carries": 0.1059, "key_pass": 0.4056, "shots_off_target": 0.3064, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0178, "tackles": 1.812, "tackles_won": 0.9568, "clearances": 3.7188, "aerial_won": 1.5161, "total_shots": 0.2817, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.2573, "accurate_pass": 12.8459, "duels_won": 2.5852, "total_long_balls": 0.9061, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.62, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1808, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6651, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.773, "possession_lost": 3.9444, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8922, "aerial_lost": 1.4392, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5191, "challenges_lost": 0.4531, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6234, "total_progression": 40.0701, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0178, "tackles": 1.812, "tackles_won": 0.9568, "clearances": 3.7188, "aerial_won": 1.5161, "total_shots": 0.2817, "rating": 6.687, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.2573, "accurate_pass": 12.8459, "duels_won": 2.5852, "total_long_balls": 0.9061, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.62, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.1808, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6373, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6651, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.773, "possession_lost": 3.9444, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8922, "aerial_lost": 1.4392, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.5191, "challenges_lost": 0.4531, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6234, "total_progression": 40.0701, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2817, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736, "opponent_faced": "Orri Óskarsson", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9881 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7688, "tackles": 1.3142, "tackles_won": 0.8584, "clearances": 2.7731, "aerial_won": 0.7784, "total_shots": 0.3945, "rating": 6.6048, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 31.0614, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 3.069, "total_long_balls": 4.8977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3508, "total_own_half_passes": 14.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9691, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7987, "crosses_total": 2.4008, "crosses_accurate": 0.5842, "touches": 49.0348, "possession_lost": 10.0369, "dispossessed": 0.1106, "duels_lost": 2.7556, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "total_contest": 0.5955, "won_contest": 0.3053, "ball_recovery": 2.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.702, "fouls": 0.8612, "fouls_drawn": 0.6929, "blocks": 0.4417, "goals": 0.0003, 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10.0369, "dispossessed": 0.1106, "duels_lost": 2.7556, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "total_contest": 0.5955, "won_contest": 0.3053, "ball_recovery": 2.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.702, "fouls": 0.8623, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "blocks": 0.4417, "goals": 0.0003, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "assists": 0.2351, "assist_rate": 0.2351, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.0003, "big_chances_created": 0.1453, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 8.3685, "total_progression": 23.1391, "progressive_carries": 0.5545, "key_pass": 0.5648, "shots_off_target": 0.3942, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7702, "tackles": 1.3142, "tackles_won": 0.8553, "clearances": 2.7731, "aerial_won": 0.7784, "total_shots": 0.3945, "rating": 6.6048, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 31.0614, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 3.069, "total_long_balls": 4.8977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3508, "total_own_half_passes": 14.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9691, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7987, "crosses_total": 2.409, "crosses_accurate": 0.5842, "touches": 49.0348, "possession_lost": 10.0369, "dispossessed": 0.1106, "duels_lost": 2.7556, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "total_contest": 0.5955, "won_contest": 0.3053, "ball_recovery": 2.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.702, "fouls": 0.8623, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "blocks": 0.4417, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.0003, "big_chances_created": 0.1453, "xgot": 0.0003, "ball_carries": 8.3685, "total_progression": 23.1391, "progressive_carries": 0.5545, "key_pass": 0.5648, "shots_off_target": 0.3942, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524, "opponent_faced": "Carlos Soler", "pressing_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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"xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0726, "after": 0.0818 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7702, "tackles": 1.3142, "tackles_won": 0.8553, "clearances": 2.7731, "aerial_won": 0.7784, "total_shots": 0.3945, "rating": 6.6048, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 31.0614, "accurate_pass": 24.7678, "duels_won": 3.069, "total_long_balls": 4.8977, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3508, "total_own_half_passes": 14.331, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9691, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7304, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7987, "crosses_total": 2.409, "crosses_accurate": 0.5842, "touches": 49.0348, "possession_lost": 10.0369, "dispossessed": 0.1106, "duels_lost": 2.7556, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "total_contest": 0.5955, "won_contest": 0.3053, "ball_recovery": 2.6769, "challenges_lost": 0.702, "fouls": 0.8623, "fouls_drawn": 0.6904, "blocks": 0.4417, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0818, 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6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2025-08-23", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2025-08-16", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9758, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.0, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.53, "save_contribution": 5.6277, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.749842882156372, "model_output": 2.7498, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1664 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.1107 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0651 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0321 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0258 } ], "others": 0.0269, "total": 2.7498, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058483 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.040897 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024264 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.011757 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009416 } ], "others_margin": 0.00978 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.09213745594024658, "model_output": -0.0921, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.051 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": -0.023, "total": -0.0921, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.051015 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.028135 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026754 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.024525 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.024288 } ], "others_margin": -0.022892 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.001150131225586, "model_output": 7.0012, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0449 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0254 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": 0.0407, "total": 7.0012, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044872 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.028143 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.025371 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.020293 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.019654 } ], "others_margin": 0.040618 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.71, "goals_prevented": -0.0908, "rating": 7.0012, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.5674, "accurate_pass": 13.7704, "total_long_balls": 20.6955, "accurate_long_balls": 7.3513, "touches": 44.2676, "clearances": 2.9565, "ball_recovery": 12.6784, "high_claims": 1.971, "punches": 2.4238, "aerial_won": 0.9056, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 3.0364, "possession_lost": 13.797, "duels_won": 0.9056, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 9.6685, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.2157 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4176, "goals_prevented": -0.014, "rating": 7.0012, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.2485, "accurate_pass": 2.1222, "total_long_balls": 3.1894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1329, "touches": 6.8222, "clearances": 0.4556, "ball_recovery": 1.9539, "high_claims": 0.3038, "punches": 0.3735, "aerial_won": 0.1396, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.4679, "possession_lost": 2.1263, "duels_won": 0.1396, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.49, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4176, "goals_prevented": -0.014, "rating": 7.0012, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.2485, "accurate_pass": 2.1222, "total_long_balls": 3.1894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1329, "touches": 6.8222, "clearances": 0.4556, "ball_recovery": 1.9539, "high_claims": 0.3038, "punches": 0.3735, "aerial_won": 0.1396, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.4679, "possession_lost": 2.1263, "duels_won": 0.1396, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.49, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4176, "goals_prevented": -0.014, "rating": 7.0012, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.2485, "accurate_pass": 2.1222, "total_long_balls": 3.1894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1329, "touches": 6.8222, "clearances": 0.4556, "ball_recovery": 1.9539, "high_claims": 0.3038, "punches": 0.3735, "aerial_won": 0.1396, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.4679, "possession_lost": 2.1263, "duels_won": 0.1396, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.49, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4176, "goals_prevented": -0.014, "rating": 7.0012, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 4.2485, "accurate_pass": 2.1222, "total_long_balls": 3.1894, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1329, "touches": 6.8222, "clearances": 0.4556, "ball_recovery": 1.9539, "high_claims": 0.3038, "punches": 0.3735, "aerial_won": 0.1396, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 0.4679, "possession_lost": 2.1263, "duels_won": 0.1396, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.49, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.4203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 37, "fifa_rank": 43.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } } ] }, "Axel Tape": { "player_id": 1937795, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 180, "market_value": 8700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 1.0001, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0062, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.311, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.85, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6593, "combined_rank_score": 4909.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 9120.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Axel Tape", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tim Siersleben", "ranking": 6588 }, { "player_name": "Lee Ho Jae", "ranking": 6589 }, { "player_name": "Boris Tomiak", "ranking": 6590 }, { "player_name": "Ole Pohlmann", "ranking": 6591 }, { "player_name": "Semih Sahin", "ranking": 6592 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daisuke Yokota", "ranking": 6594 }, { "player_name": "Clayton Taylor", "ranking": 6595 }, { "player_name": "Rahim Alhassane", "ranking": 6596 }, { "player_name": "Giovane", "ranking": 6597 }, { "player_name": "Stefano Sabelli", "ranking": 6598 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.847985272763946, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3112720578529066, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5071, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€8,700,000) scaled to 13.8 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position D (quality 0.51)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.6, "tackles": 2.4, "tackles_won": 1.5, "clearances": 2.7, "aerial_won": 2.3, "duels_won": 5.5, "total_pass": 44.0, "accurate_pass": 35.0, "expected_goals": 0.018, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90.0, "total_long_balls": 6.0, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0, "total_own_half_passes": 28.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0, "crosses_total": 0.9, "crosses_accurate": 0.4, "touches": 60.0, "possession_lost": 6.5, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 3.5, "aerial_lost": 2.0, "total_contest": 4.0, "won_contest": 2.3, "ball_recovery": 5.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7, "blocks": 0.7, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.04, "assist_rate": 0.04, "expected_assists": 0.051, "total_shots": 0.4, "shots_on_target": 0.15, "shots_off_target": 0.2, "big_chances_created": 0.04, "xgot": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.6, "ball_carries": 20.0, "total_progression": 60.0, "progressive_carries": 5.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 13.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.31)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2462, "tackles": 0.3693, "tackles_won": 0.2308, "clearances": 0.4154, "aerial_won": 0.3539, "duels_won": 0.8463, "total_pass": 6.7701, "accurate_pass": 5.3853, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 13.85, "total_long_balls": 0.9232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4616, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5389, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0771, "crosses_total": 0.1385, "crosses_accurate": 0.0615, "touches": 9.232, "possession_lost": 1.0001, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5385, "aerial_lost": 2.0, "total_contest": 0.6155, "won_contest": 0.3539, "ball_recovery": 0.7693, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.1539, "fouls_drawn": 0.1077, "blocks": 0.1077, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0062, "assist_rate": 0.0062, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0.0615, "shots_on_target": 0.0231, "shots_off_target": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.0062, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0.0923, "ball_carries": 3.0773, "total_progression": 9.232, "progressive_carries": 0.7693, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.311, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.85, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.1539, "appearance_probability": 0.311 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2462, "tackles": 0.3693, "tackles_won": 0.2308, "clearances": 0.4154, "aerial_won": 0.3539, "duels_won": 0.8463, "total_pass": 6.7701, "accurate_pass": 5.3853, "expected_goals": 0.0028, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 13.85, "total_long_balls": 0.9232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4616, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3083, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.5389, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5387, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0771, "crosses_total": 0.1385, "crosses_accurate": 0.0615, "touches": 9.232, "possession_lost": 1.0001, "dispossessed": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.5385, "aerial_lost": 2.0, "total_contest": 0.6155, "won_contest": 0.3539, "ball_recovery": 0.7693, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 0.1539, "fouls_drawn": 0.1077, "blocks": 0.1077, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0062, "assist_rate": 0.0062, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 0.0615, "shots_on_target": 0.0231, "shots_off_target": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.0062, "xgot": 0.002, "key_pass": 0.0923, "ball_carries": 3.0773, "total_progression": 9.232, "progressive_carries": 0.7693, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.311, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2462, "tackles": 0.3693, "tackles_won": 0.2308, "clearances": 0.4154, "aerial_won": 0.3539, "duels_won": 0.8463, "total_pass": 6.7701, "accurate_pass": 5.3853, 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4755 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0531 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 0.6436, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475509 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.053077 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.030806 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.018721 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.013743 } ], "others_margin": 0.012265 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.726682186126709, "model_output": 6.7267, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6662, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "goals": 0.0508, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "shots_on_target": 0.1891, "total_shots": 0.6457, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 8.4201, "accurate_pass": 6.7229, "duels_won": 1.3996, "total_long_balls": 0.7296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5081, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6365, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0863, "crosses_total": 1.6886, "crosses_accurate": 0.2961, "touches": 16.2224, "possession_lost": 5.708, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.4851, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2139, "tackles": 0.3122, "clearances": 0.16, "total_contest": 0.8932, "won_contest": 0.16, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.2865, "fouls_drawn": 0.9274, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 6.2814, "total_progression": 18.0602, "progressive_carries": 0.8758, "shots_off_target": 0.4566 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0033, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0030)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6662, "expected_assists": 0.0576, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "goals": 0.0506, "goal_rate": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.1885, "total_shots": 0.6438, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 8.4201, "accurate_pass": 6.7229, "duels_won": 1.3996, "total_long_balls": 0.7296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5081, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6365, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0863, "crosses_total": 1.6835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2961, "touches": 16.2224, "possession_lost": 5.708, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.4851, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2133, "tackles": 0.3122, "clearances": 0.16, "total_contest": 0.8932, "won_contest": 0.16, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.287, "fouls_drawn": 0.9274, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 6.2814, "total_progression": 18.0602, "progressive_carries": 0.8758, "shots_off_target": 0.4566 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.003, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2342, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.6886, "after": 1.6835 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7128, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assists": 0.0897, "assist_rate": 0.0897, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0.6902, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 6.7209, "total_progression": 19.3239, "progressive_carries": 0.9371, "shots_off_target": 0.4885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.319, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 21.08, "minutes_scale": 1.07, "appearance_probability": 0.319 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7128, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assists": 0.0897, "assist_rate": 0.0897, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0.6902, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 6.7209, "total_progression": 19.3239, "progressive_carries": 0.9371, "shots_off_target": 0.4885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.319, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7128, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assist_rate": 0.0897, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0.6902, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 6.7209, "total_progression": 19.3239, "progressive_carries": 0.9371, "shots_off_target": 0.4885, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.319, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.319, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7128, "expected_assists": 0.0616, "assist_rate": 0.0897, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2017, "total_shots": 0.6902, "rating": 6.7267, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, 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996974, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 172, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 6, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0658, "expected_assists": 0.1481, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0193, "expected_assists": 0.1563, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1452, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4002, "combined_rank_score": 1982.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 3520.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6474, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Enzo Bardeli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Junior Sornoza", "ranking": 3997 }, { "player_name": "Tai Baribo", "ranking": 3998 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Echeverri", "ranking": 3999 }, { "player_name": "Turrientes", "ranking": 4000 }, { "player_name": "Agirrezabala", "ranking": 4001 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrés García", "ranking": 4003 }, { "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking": 4004 }, { "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking": 4005 }, { "player_name": "Marco Grüll", "ranking": 4006 }, { "player_name": "Soungoutou Magassa", "ranking": 4007 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.625, "history_matches": 6, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.366344 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.183818 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035831 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.025913 } ], "others_margin": -0.026301 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.647401332855225, "model_output": 6.6474, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": -0.03, "total": 6.6474, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038707 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027064 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025294 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017068 } ], "others_margin": -0.030016 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9955, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4871, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0216, "goal_rate": 0.0216, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3097, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 28.22, "total_pass": 18.1045, "accurate_pass": 15.0416, "duels_won": 1.9892, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2038, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.0362, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0052, "crosses_total": 2.2565, "crosses_accurate": 0.6494, "touches": 27.6441, "possession_lost": 7.0894, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 3.1719, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.7234, "tackles_won": 0.8226, "tackles": 1.2355, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6167, "won_contest": 0.4435, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.8725, "fouls_drawn": 0.3102, "blocks": 0.2397, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 7.0707, "total_progression": 23.6566, "progressive_carries": 0.7625, "shots_off_target": 0.2091 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9955, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.2 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.11, "projection_minutes": 28.22, "minutes_scale": 0.7835, "appearance_probability": 0.505 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.505 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0158, "after": 0.0075 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0419, "after": 0.0238 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4002, "fifa_rank": 3520.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0074, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0074, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "scorer_weight": 0.0076, "squad_weight_total": 1.0647, "weight_share": 0.0072, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0074, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.049, "provider_weight": 0.0256, "squad_weight_total": 0.6667, "weight_share": 0.0385, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1633, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1633, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1022, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Etta Eyong": { "player_id": 1393673, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 15600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1467, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0693, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.2699, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0503 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 6.671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.050291 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.016854 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015796 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015051 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010406 } ], "others_margin": -0.016515 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0889, "goals": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.1193, "shots_on_target": 0.356, "total_shots": 0.8226, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3199, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 3.5122, "accurate_pass": 2.2405, "duels_won": 1.387, "total_long_balls": 0.1322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.856, "crosses_total": 0.2285, "crosses_accurate": 0.159, "touches": 8.1664, "possession_lost": 3.4817, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 2.5519, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.3116, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 0.7173, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.3331, "assists": 0.1815, "assist_rate": 0.1815, "interceptions": 0.1429, "tackles_won": 0.01, "tackles": 0.2026, "clearances": 0.0695, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1837, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 1.3521, "total_progression": 3.1728, "progressive_carries": 0.0266, "shots_off_target": 0.4666 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1467, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1334, "after": 0.0738 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0522, "after": 0.0344 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1467, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, 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"weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, 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"params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "provider_weight": 0.043, "squad_weight_total": 0.6667, "weight_share": 0.0645, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1633, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1633, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1022, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0111, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 17122851, "match_date": "2026-10-21 18:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Levante", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017604 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012429 } ], "others_margin": -0.061231 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0886, "goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0867, "shots_on_target": 0.2775, "total_shots": 0.6039, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.2119, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 17.0, "total_pass": 5.5929, "accurate_pass": 3.2963, "duels_won": 0.9186, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7262, "possession_lost": 6.1333, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 3.2152, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.378, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4594, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4594, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.378, "total_progression": 5.9619, "progressive_carries": 0.4594, "shots_off_target": 0.3264 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1329, "goals": 0.13, "goal_rate": 0.13, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 17.0, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1329, "goals": 0.13, "goal_rate": 0.13, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1329, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1329, "after": 0.0718 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0174, "after": 0.0112 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.13, "scorer_weight": 0.0707, "squad_weight_total": 1.0647, "weight_share": 0.0664, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, 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"squad_weight_total": 0.6667, "weight_share": 0.0134, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1633, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1633, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1022, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Etta Eyong": { "player_id": 1393673, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 15600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, 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"latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "expected_assists": 0.2699, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": 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}, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0165, "total": 6.671, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.050291 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.016854 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015796 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015051 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010406 } ], "others_margin": -0.016515 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0889, "goals": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.1193, "shots_on_target": 0.356, "total_shots": 0.8226, "expected_assists": 0.0348, "key_pass": 0.3199, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 17.01, "total_pass": 3.5122, "accurate_pass": 2.2405, "duels_won": 1.387, "total_long_balls": 0.1322, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1056, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.856, "crosses_total": 0.2285, "crosses_accurate": 0.159, "touches": 8.1664, "possession_lost": 3.4817, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 2.5519, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.3116, "won_contest": 0.0948, "ball_recovery": 0.7173, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.6258, "fouls_drawn": 0.3331, "assists": 0.1815, "assist_rate": 0.1815, "interceptions": 0.1429, "tackles_won": 0.01, "tackles": 0.2026, "clearances": 0.0695, "blocks": 0.0313, "big_chances_created": 0.1837, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.1768, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 1.3521, "total_progression": 3.1728, "progressive_carries": 0.0266, "shots_off_target": 0.4666 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 17.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assists": 0.2722, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.2652, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1467, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1334, "after": 0.0738 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0522, "after": 0.0344 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1467, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1467, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0693, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "scorer_weight": 0.0921, "squad_weight_total": 1.0647, "weight_share": 0.0865, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.534, "total_shots": 1.2339, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "key_pass": 0.4798, "rating": 6.671, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 5.2683, "accurate_pass": 3.3607, "duels_won": 2.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.1983, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1584, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5976, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.784, "crosses_total": 0.3427, "crosses_accurate": 0.2385, "touches": 12.2496, "possession_lost": 5.2226, "dispossessed": 0.6746, "duels_lost": 3.8278, "aerial_lost": 0.9034, "total_contest": 0.4674, "won_contest": 0.1422, "ball_recovery": 1.076, "challenges_lost": 0.1312, "fouls": 0.9387, "fouls_drawn": 0.4997, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2143, "tackles_won": 0.015, "tackles": 0.3039, "clearances": 0.1043, "blocks": 0.047, "big_chances_created": 0.2756, "big_chances_missed": 0.3174, "xgot": 0.1467, "offsides": 0.0163, "ball_carries": 2.0282, "total_progression": 4.7592, "progressive_carries": 0.0399, "shots_off_target": 0.6999, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0693, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "assist_rate": 0.2722, "provider_weight": 0.043, "squad_weight_total": 0.6667, "weight_share": 0.0645, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1633, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1633, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1022, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0111, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 17122851, "match_date": "2026-10-21 18:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Levante", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, 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"name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017604 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012429 } ], "others_margin": -0.061231 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0886, "goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0867, "shots_on_target": 0.2775, "total_shots": 0.6039, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "key_pass": 0.2119, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 17.0, "total_pass": 5.5929, "accurate_pass": 3.2963, "duels_won": 0.9186, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9186, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.7262, "possession_lost": 6.1333, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 3.2152, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.378, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.4594, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4594, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.378, "total_progression": 5.9619, "progressive_carries": 0.4594, "shots_off_target": 0.3264 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.0 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1329, "goals": 0.13, "goal_rate": 0.13, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 17.0, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1329, "goals": 0.13, "goal_rate": 0.13, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1329, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1329, "after": 0.0718 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0174, "after": 0.0112 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.13, "scorer_weight": 0.0707, "squad_weight_total": 1.0647, "weight_share": 0.0664, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0718, "goal_rate": 0.13, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4163, "total_shots": 0.9059, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "key_pass": 0.3179, "rating": 6.6118, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 8.3894, "accurate_pass": 4.9444, "duels_won": 1.3779, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3779, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.5893, "possession_lost": 9.2, "dispossessed": 1.378, "duels_lost": 4.8228, "aerial_lost": 1.378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.067, "challenges_lost": 0.4594, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6891, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.6891, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.067, "total_progression": 8.9428, "progressive_carries": 0.6891, "shots_off_target": 0.4896, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0675, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0111, "finishing_factor": 0.9841, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0111, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.009, "squad_weight_total": 0.6667, "weight_share": 0.0134, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1633, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1633, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1022, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "player_id": 996974, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 172, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, 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1.0773, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421070, "match_date": "2026-10-16 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Deportivo", "away_team": "Levante", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Levante", "opponent": "Deportivo", "stats": { "minutes": 47, "rating": 6.4, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0271 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": -0.03, "total": 6.6474, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038707 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027064 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025294 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017068 } ], "others_margin": -0.030016 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9955, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4871, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0202, "goals": 0.0216, "goal_rate": 0.0216, "shots_on_target": 0.1006, "total_shots": 0.3097, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 28.22, "total_pass": 18.1045, "accurate_pass": 15.0416, "duels_won": 1.9892, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2038, "total_own_half_passes": 8.0438, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.0362, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0605, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0052, "crosses_total": 2.2565, "crosses_accurate": 0.6494, "touches": 27.6441, "possession_lost": 7.0894, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 3.1719, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.7234, "tackles_won": 0.8226, "tackles": 1.2355, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6167, "won_contest": 0.4435, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.8725, "fouls_drawn": 0.3102, "blocks": 0.2397, "big_chances_created": 0.1251, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0074, "ball_carries": 7.0707, "total_progression": 23.6566, "progressive_carries": 0.7625, "shots_off_target": 0.2091 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9955, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.2 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.11, "projection_minutes": 28.22, "minutes_scale": 0.7835, "appearance_probability": 0.505 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "goals": 0.0169, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0419, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.04 (squad xG sum 1.0996, xG scale 0.9458, xA scale 1.1262, team xA 0.68 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.04, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0996, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6002, "team_expected_assists": 0.676, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9458, "xa_scale": 1.1262, "opponent_lambda": 1.944, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.505 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0158, "after": 0.0075 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0419, "after": 0.0238 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4002, "fifa_rank": 3520.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0074, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0074, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "scorer_weight": 0.0076, "squad_weight_total": 1.0647, "weight_share": 0.0072, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Iván Romero", "weight": 0.3021, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3021, "runner_up": "Roger Brugué", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2608 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3816, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0075, "goal_rate": 0.0169, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0788, "total_shots": 0.2426, "rating": 6.6474, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.1841, "accurate_pass": 11.7844, "duels_won": 1.5584, "total_long_balls": 0.2577, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1597, "total_own_half_passes": 6.302, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.882, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2717, "crosses_total": 1.7679, "crosses_accurate": 0.5088, "touches": 21.6579, "possession_lost": 5.5542, "dispossessed": 0.5602, "duels_lost": 2.485, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.5342, "interceptions": 0.5668, "tackles_won": 0.6445, "tackles": 0.968, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4832, "won_contest": 0.3475, "challenges_lost": 1.0317, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.243, "blocks": 0.1878, "big_chances_created": 0.098, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0028, "ball_carries": 5.5396, "total_progression": 18.5339, "progressive_carries": 0.5974, "shots_off_target": 0.1638, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0074, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "finishing_factor": 1.0167, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0232, "assist_rate": 0.049, "provider_weight": 0.0256, "squad_weight_total": 0.6667, "weight_share": 0.0385, "creation_factor": 1.0773, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "weight": 0.1633, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1633, "runner_up": "Jeremy Toljan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1022, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Iván Romero" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.04, "expected_assists": 0.68, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 311, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Orri Óskarsson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.4168, "xg_multiplier": 1.094, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orri Óskarsson (ST) is slightly favored against Aïssa Mandi and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.417 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "xg_contribution": 0.2332, "xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is slightly favored against Aïssa Mandi and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.233 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ander Barrenetxea", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "xg_contribution": 0.1612, "xg_multiplier": 1.0159, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ander Barrenetxea (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Takefusa Kubo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "xg_contribution": 0.1398, "xg_multiplier": 1.0411, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 } ], "duel_analysis": "Takefusa Kubo (ST) is evenly matched against Aïssa Mandi and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.140 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Soler", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Jeremy Toljan" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.476, "xg_contribution": 0.1158, "xg_multiplier": 1.0234, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jeremy Toljan", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Soler (LM) is evenly matched against Jeremy Toljan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Turrientes", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Oriol Rey", "Daniel Requena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "xg_contribution": 0.0596, "xg_multiplier": 1.0611, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 }, { "player": "Daniel Requena", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Turrientes (CM) is slightly favored against Oriol Rey and Daniel Requena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Sergio Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.3228, "xg_multiplier": 0.908, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Gómez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Sergio Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.323 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Víctor García", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "xg_contribution": 0.1072, "xg_multiplier": 0.7479, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.691 } ], "duel_analysis": "Víctor García (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Roger Brugué", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Héctor Fort", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2675, "xg_multiplier": 0.7521, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Héctor Fort", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mamadou Sarr", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roger Brugué (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Héctor Fort and Mamadou Sarr in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €19M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.75 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.268 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.336, "xg_contribution": 0.0352, "xg_multiplier": 0.9066, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.664 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Requena", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.0487, "xg_multiplier": 0.9713, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Requena (CM) is evenly matched against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.36, "xg_contribution": 0.1172, "xg_multiplier": 0.9125, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.64 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.117 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.481, "away_midfield_power": 0.437, "home_creative_power": 0.502, "away_creative_power": 0.416, "home_defensive_power": 0.45, "away_defensive_power": 0.372, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.524, "home_midfield_count": 2, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Carlos Soler" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Daniel Requena", "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Beñat Turrientes vs Jon Ander Olasagasti", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.016, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.992 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.944, "away_lambda": 1.04, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carlos Soler": { "opponents": [ "Jeremy Toljan", "Daniel Requena" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Beñat Turrientes": { "opponents": [ "Oriol Rey", "Daniel Requena", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Víctor García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Héctor Fort": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mamadou Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero", "Víctor García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson", "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ifeanyi Ndukwe": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson", "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremy Toljan": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Requena": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Víctor García": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Héctor Fort", "Mamadou Sarr" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Beñat Turrientes vs Jon Ander Olasagasti will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.13, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.087, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.102, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0025, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9436, "home_midfield_factor": 1.016, "away_midfield_factor": 0.992, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6076, "away_avg_quality": 0.4473, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1604, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.5563, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.3629, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.4131, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3431, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1887, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1098, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1264, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1823 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.016, "result": 1.2012 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.1412 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.5312 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1159, "result": 1.7086 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.7268 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0025, "result": 1.7312 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.087, "result": 1.8182 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.8182, "result": 1.8182, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3431, "factor": 1.1887, "pre": 1.8182, "result": 2.1613 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.1613 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1676, "result": 2.3286 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9278, "result": 2.0092 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.0092, "result": 2.009, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.009 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 2.009, "result": 2.0233, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0908, "pre": 2.0233, "result": 2.207 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.207 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9528, "input_total": 3.152, "result": 2.1029 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.1029, "result": 2.103, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.947, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.944 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8986, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0114 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.992, "result": 1.0034 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.0535 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0535 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0498, "result": 1.106 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9777, "result": 1.0814 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9436, "result": 1.0204 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.102, "result": 1.1224 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1224, "result": 1.1224, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3431, "factor": 0.8902, "pre": 1.1224, "result": 0.9992 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9992 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.2, "result": 1.199 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.9259, "result": 1.1367 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1367, "result": 1.137, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.137 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.137, "result": 1.1289, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9757, "pre": 1.1289, "result": 1.101 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.101 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9528, "input_total": 3.152, "result": 1.0491 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.0491, "result": 1.049, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.947, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.04 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1676, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Sociedad", "away_squad": "Levante UD", "home_goals_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.928, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.926, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3431, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0908, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9757, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.0233, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.1289, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.207, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.101, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.0092, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1367, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.947, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.944, "final_away_lambda": 1.04 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1159, "attack_index": 1.154, "defense_concede_index": 1.121, "form_multiplier": 1.029, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.77, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.72, "team_ppg": 1.61, "opponent_ppg": 1.08 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0498, "attack_index": 0.991, "defense_concede_index": 1.154, "form_multiplier": 0.971, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.52, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.77, "team_ppg": 1.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.61 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Sociedad vs Levante. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 2.009, Away 1.137). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.944, Away 1.040 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 6, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Sociedad", "away_squad": "Levante UD", "home_goals_per90": 0.75, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 0.75, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.928, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.926, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.944, "away_lambda": 1.04, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.009, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.137 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.947, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T15:16:55Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }