{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.085, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0808, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.085, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Newcastle", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2321, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1016 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.085 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0808 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0681 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0622 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0381, "0-1": 0.0622, "0-2": 0.0531, "0-3": 0.0298, "0-4": 0.0126, "0-5": 0.0042, "0-6": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.059, "1-1": 0.1016, "1-2": 0.085, "1-3": 0.0478, "1-4": 0.0201, "1-5": 0.0068, "1-6": 0.0019, "2-0": 0.0479, "2-1": 0.0808, "2-2": 0.0681, "2-3": 0.0383, "2-4": 0.0161, "2-5": 0.0054, "2-6": 0.0015, "3-0": 0.0256, "3-1": 0.0431, "3-2": 0.0364, "3-3": 0.0204, "3-4": 0.0086, "3-5": 0.0029, "3-6": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0102, "4-1": 0.0173, "4-2": 0.0146, "4-3": 0.0082, "4-4": 0.0034, "4-5": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0033, "5-1": 0.0055, "5-2": 0.0047, "5-3": 0.0026, "5-4": 0.0011, "6-0": 0.0009, "6-1": 0.0015, "6-2": 0.0012, "6-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3662, "draw": 0.2321, "away_win": 0.4017 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6382, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3618, "btts_yes": 0.6514, "btts_no": 0.3486, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1853, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2015 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.75, "MCR": 6.88, "ATR": 6.75, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.93, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.94 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Crystal Palace 2W-3D-5L vs Newcastle over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yoane Wissa, William Osula", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.98. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.602, "away_lambda": 1.686, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 0.9786, "away_multiplier": 1.0214 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1016, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3662, "draw": 0.2321, "away_win": 0.4017 }, "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4017, "fair_spread": -0.084, "fair_total": 3.288, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.602, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.686, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6382, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6514, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1853, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Newcastle", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2015, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.4037, "probability": 0.3322, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "William Osula (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.4224, "probability": 0.3445, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.1979, "probability": 0.1795, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lewis Hall (Newcastle)", "estimate": 0.1867, "probability": 0.1703, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.288, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 836, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.6, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Newcastle", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4017, "script": "Newcastle is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.08 goals and fair total 3.29.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Crystal Palace must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Newcastle lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Crystal Palace chance creation leans on Ismaïla Sarr against Nico González, Sven Botman in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through Jean-Philippe Mateta; bench watchlist: Jørgen Strand Larsen, Quinten Timber, Evann Guessand.", "Newcastle: starters carry the main goal usage through Yoane Wissa, William Osula; bench watchlist: Nick Woltemade, Bazoumana Touré, Aladji Bamba.", "Assist usage should flow through Adam Wharton, Harvey Barnes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Newcastle tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.64 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Crystal Palace is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Newcastle.", "Crystal Palace wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Crystal Palace": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Tyrick Mitchell": { "player_id": 988275, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 174, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1199, "assist_rate": 0.0818, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0915, "goal_rate": 0.0872, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 85, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 13.7496, "dispossessed": 0.7931, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.146, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 48, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8664, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lukáš Horníček", "opponent_faced": "Lukáš Horníček", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0874, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.113, "finishing_factor": 1.0778, "creation_factor": 0.9421, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363883, "match_date": "2026-10-18 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "home_score_current": 5.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Forest", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.013, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0559, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6617, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1055, "expected_assists": 0.1591, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2608, "expected_assists": 0.1394, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0674, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 7, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1865, "combined_rank_score": 721.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 574.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8053, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 868.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8329, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tyrick Mitchell", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ritsu Doan", "ranking": 1860 }, { "player_name": "Unai Elgezabal", "ranking": 1861 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jun-Gyu", "ranking": 1862 }, { "player_name": "Amar Muhsin", "ranking": 1863 }, { "player_name": "Claudio González", "ranking": 1864 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bon-cheol Ku", "ranking": 1866 }, { "player_name": "Luke Amos", "ranking": 1867 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Sidikov", "ranking": 1868 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Vizeu", "ranking": 1869 }, { "player_name": "José Miguel Manzaneda", "ranking": 1870 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0048, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 1.0, "shots_on_target_pct": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 43 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Crystal Palace, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8928, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "assists": 0.0821, "assist_rate": 0.0821, "expected_goals": 0.0888, "goals": 0.1011, "goal_rate": 0.1011, "shots_on_target": 0.2843, "total_shots": 1.1146, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 84.59, "total_pass": 30.0962, "accurate_pass": 22.3599, "duels_won": 4.1576, "total_long_balls": 3.095, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7787, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6738, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.7474, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4224, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6125, "crosses_total": 2.226, "crosses_accurate": 0.3732, "touches": 53.4728, "possession_lost": 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"rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalShots": 0.8446, "creative_index": 0.3479, "expectedGoals": 0.1106, "expectedAssists": 0.0589, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.3226 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8928325772285461, "model_output": 0.8928, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1286 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0653 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0647 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0624 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.0237, "total": 0.8928, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 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"contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0046 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 0.0888, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.169109 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.167501 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116309 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.047057 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.046668 } ], "others_margin": -0.082358 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.10105906426906586, "model_output": 0.1011, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0107 } ], "others": -0.01, "total": 0.1011, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.117075 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107821 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.103133 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.100145 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.092005 } ], "others_margin": -0.095541 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.284324586391449, "model_output": 0.2843, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.056 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0414, "total": 0.2843, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.189821 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134214 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.090825 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055826 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025794 } ], "others_margin": -0.135785 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1145570278167725, "model_output": 1.1146, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1439 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.048 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.022 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 1.1146, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.143879 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.047984 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.028816 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028283 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.022035 } ], "others_margin": -0.006867 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.832864284515381, "model_output": 6.8329, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0244 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0117 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0123, "total": 6.8329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028791 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024439 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.011726 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010149 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.009715 } ], "others_margin": -0.012223 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0048, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8971, "expected_assists": 0.0899, "assists": 0.0825, "assist_rate": 0.0825, "expected_goals": 0.0892, "goals": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.1015, "shots_on_target": 0.2857, "total_shots": 1.1199, "rating": 6.8329, "minutes": 84.59, "total_pass": 30.2407, "accurate_pass": 22.4672, "duels_won": 4.1776, "total_long_balls": 3.1099, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7824, "total_own_half_passes": 13.7394, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.799, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.5012, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6682, "crosses_total": 2.2367, "crosses_accurate": 0.375, "touches": 53.7295, "possession_lost": 13.7496, "dispossessed": 0.7931, "duels_lost": 3.1801, "aerial_won": 0.8185, "aerial_lost": 0.7929, "interceptions": 0.5275, "tackles_won": 1.7126, "tackles": 2.6489, "clearances": 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1399 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1036 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.029 } ], "others": -0.084, "total": 0.8803, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139902 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.103557 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056585 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034874 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.029028 } ], "others_margin": -0.084096 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.812966346740723, "model_output": 6.813, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0208 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.039, "total": 6.813, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028565 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.020778 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.019442 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014157 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012741 } ], "others_margin": -0.038908 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.0928, "assist_rate": 0.0928, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0822, "shots_on_target": 0.3111, "total_shots": 0.881, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1368, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 0.3158, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4584, "tackles_won": 1.5315, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4394, "fouls_drawn": 1.2974, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1789, "xgot": 0.022, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.5699 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10300000, "quality_factor": 0.526, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0114)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0813, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "shots_on_target": 0.3076, "total_shots": 0.8762, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 0.3158, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1789, "xgot": 0.022, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.5699 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0114, "history_matches": 33, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9228, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.5315, "after": 1.5509 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1368, "after": 1.1449 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4584, "after": 0.4637 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0813, "goal_rate": 0.0813, "shots_on_target": 0.3076, "total_shots": 0.8775, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 0.3158, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1789, "xgot": 0.022, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.5699 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.0917, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7291, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1486, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.4735, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "skill_edge": -0.1351, "height_edge": 0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.5761, "defender_skill": 0.8762, "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lewis Hall", "market_value": 52000000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.8762 } ], "xg_override": 0.0586 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3158, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8775, "after": 0.7291 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5699, "after": 0.4735 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3076, "after": 0.2556 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1789, "after": 0.1486 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0813, "after": 0.0676 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0705, "after": 0.0586 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7291, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1486, "xgot": 0.0183, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.4735, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.1263, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7291, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1486, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.4735, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0829, "creation_factor": 0.9793 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0586, "after": 0.0693 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0947, "after": 0.1263 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.1263, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7291, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1486, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.4735, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0829, "creation_factor": 0.9793, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1213, "fifa_rank": 863.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.1263, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7291, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1486, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.4735, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lewis Hall", "opponent_faced": "Lewis Hall", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.067, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0829, "creation_factor": 0.9793, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "scorer_weight": 0.075, "squad_weight_total": 1.6514, "weight_share": 0.0454, "finishing_factor": 1.0829, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "weight": 0.3822, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3822, "runner_up": "Ismaïla Sarr", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3693 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9113, "expected_assists": 0.1263, "assist_rate": 0.0917, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7291, "rating": 6.813, "minutes": 83.05, "total_pass": 37.0239, "accurate_pass": 31.8013, "duels_won": 4.138, "total_long_balls": 1.9898, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1207, "total_own_half_passes": 16.2753, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.183, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6183, "crosses_total": 1.1449, "crosses_accurate": 0.265, "touches": 48.8609, "possession_lost": 8.7035, "dispossessed": 0.672, "duels_lost": 3.4269, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2765, "interceptions": 0.4637, "tackles_won": 1.5509, "tackles": 2.1778, "clearances": 0.5115, "total_contest": 0.9985, "won_contest": 0.3654, "challenges_lost": 1.4141, "fouls": 0.4397, "fouls_drawn": 1.2984, "blocks": 0.0133, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "big_chances_missed": 0.1486, "xgot": 0.0216, "ball_carries": 15.4261, "total_progression": 51.8955, "progressive_carries": 1.9314, "shots_off_target": 0.4735, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.233407 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.140852 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119109 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.115704 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.059846 } ], "others_margin": -0.143297 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1430017948150635, "model_output": 1.143, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2685 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1366 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.071 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.048 } ], "others": -0.179, "total": 1.143, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.268496 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136633 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.070998 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.050578 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.048034 } ], "others_margin": -0.17905 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8993024826049805, "model_output": 6.8993, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0668 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0529, "total": 6.8993, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.066757 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.027031 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016094 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.014727 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010888 } ], "others_margin": -0.052877 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8831, "expected_assists": 0.1038, "assists": 0.0768, "assist_rate": 0.0768, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "goals": 0.1493, "goal_rate": 0.1493, "shots_on_target": 0.3952, "total_shots": 1.171, "rating": 6.8993, "minutes": 86.74, "total_pass": 33.112, "accurate_pass": 24.5352, "duels_won": 6.372, "total_long_balls": 4.5918, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4187, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0421, "crosses_total": 2.4018, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.0437, "possession_lost": 16.7441, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.3888, "aerial_won": 1.1675, "aerial_lost": 0.7164, "interceptions": 1.1809, "tackles_won": 2.1681, "tackles": 3.8608, "clearances": 3.1083, "total_contest": 2.4511, "won_contest": 1.1461, "challenges_lost": 2.5752, "fouls": 0.7922, "fouls_drawn": 0.1974, "blocks": 0.2323, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5056, "xgot": 0.0825, "ball_carries": 13.2601, "total_progression": 73.008, "progressive_carries": 1.7409, "shots_off_target": 0.7758 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0245, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0260)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8831, "expected_assists": 0.1038, "assists": 0.0748, "assist_rate": 0.0748, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "goals": 0.1454, "goal_rate": 0.1454, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 1.1611, "rating": 6.8993, "minutes": 86.74, "total_pass": 33.112, "accurate_pass": 24.5352, "duels_won": 6.372, "total_long_balls": 4.5918, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4187, 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2.1681, "after": 2.2997 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.4018, "after": 2.4855 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1809, "after": 1.2128 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7922, "after": 0.8134 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1974, "after": 0.2131 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3952, "after": 0.3849 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.171, "after": 1.1611 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8831, "expected_assists": 0.1038, "assists": 0.0748, "assist_rate": 0.0748, "expected_goals": 0.1048, "goals": 0.1454, "goal_rate": 0.1454, "shots_on_target": 0.3849, "total_shots": 1.1611, "rating": 6.8993, "minutes": 86.74, "total_pass": 33.112, "accurate_pass": 24.5352, "duels_won": 6.372, "total_long_balls": 4.5918, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4187, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6946, 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3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nico González", "opponent_faced": "Nico González", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nico González", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8709, "skill_edge": -0.0758, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.6914, "defender_skill": 0.8599, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nico González", "market_value": 54000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8599 } ], "xg_override": 0.0913 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1611, "after": 1.0112 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7758, "after": 0.6756 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.1675, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.5056, "after": 0.4403 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3849, "after": 0.3352 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1454, "after": 0.1266 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1048, "after": 0.0913 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0825, "after": 0.0718 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8831, "expected_assists": 0.1038, "assist_rate": 0.0748, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 1.0112, "rating": 6.8993, "minutes": 86.74, "total_pass": 33.112, "accurate_pass": 24.5352, "duels_won": 6.372, "total_long_balls": 4.5918, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4187, "total_own_half_passes": 14.4175, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.4931, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0421, "crosses_total": 2.4855, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.0437, "possession_lost": 16.7441, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5.3888, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7164, "interceptions": 1.2128, "tackles_won": 2.2997, "tackles": 3.8608, "clearances": 3.1083, "total_contest": 2.4511, "won_contest": 1.1461, "challenges_lost": 2.5752, "fouls": 0.8134, "fouls_drawn": 0.2131, "blocks": 0.2323, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.4403, "xgot": 0.0718, "ball_carries": 13.2601, "total_progression": 73.008, "progressive_carries": 1.7409, "shots_off_target": 0.6756, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8709, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nico González", "opponent_faced": "Nico González", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8831, "expected_assists": 0.1384, "assist_rate": 0.0748, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.108, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3352, "total_shots": 1.0112, "rating": 6.8993, "minutes": 86.74, "total_pass": 33.112, "accurate_pass": 24.5352, "duels_won": 6.372, "total_long_balls": 4.5918, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4187, 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"is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1361, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 16.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1157, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0983, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0836, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.071, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0604, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0513, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0436, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-10", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0371, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 17.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.8849, "aerialWon": 1.1394, "totalClearance_p90": 3.9523, "totalTackle": 1.2935, "totalPass": 35.3246 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 1.0522066354751587, "model_output": 1.0522, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1089 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0759 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0438 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", 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"importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1849 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1747 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0984 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0426 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0392 } ], "others": 0.0733, "total": 1.4617, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.143587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136215 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.069239 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.029422 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.027854 } ], "others_margin": 0.051488 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3016054034233093, "model_output": 0.3016, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1136 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0516 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0658, "total": 0.3016, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113584 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051558 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016942 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015813 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.009002 } ], "others_margin": -0.065744 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708393096923828, "model_output": 6.7084, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": 0.0081, "total": 6.7084, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.02051 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011845 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011413 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.010843 } ], "others_margin": 0.00817 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0054, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0579, "tackles": 1.6154, "tackles_won": 0.9585, "clearances": 4.2475, "aerial_won": 1.4696, "total_shots": 0.3032, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 81.56, "total_pass": 39.1888, "accurate_pass": 33.8715, "duels_won": 3.0329, "total_long_balls": 5.3682, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3127, "total_own_half_passes": 25.8943, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.0468, "possession_lost": 6.4039, "dispossessed": 0.3553, "duels_lost": 2.2074, "aerial_lost": 0.98, "total_contest": 0.2429, "won_contest": 0.2429, "ball_recovery": 3.1935, "challenges_lost": 0.3946, "fouls": 0.4774, "fouls_drawn": 0.1872, "blocks": 0.8183, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "shots_on_target": 0.0717, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0207, "ball_carries": 13.8794, "total_progression": 50.0964, "progressive_carries": 0.5945, "key_pass": 0.1552, "shots_off_target": 0.2315 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0054, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0558, "tackles": 1.6154, "tackles_won": 0.9566, "clearances": 4.2475, "aerial_won": 1.4696, "total_shots": 0.3026, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 81.56, "total_pass": 39.1888, "accurate_pass": 33.8715, "duels_won": 3.0329, "total_long_balls": 5.3682, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3127, "total_own_half_passes": 25.8943, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, 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] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0558, "tackles": 1.6154, "tackles_won": 0.9566, "clearances": 4.2475, "aerial_won": 1.4696, "total_shots": 0.3031, "rating": 6.7084, "minutes": 81.56, "total_pass": 39.1888, "accurate_pass": 33.8715, "duels_won": 3.0329, "total_long_balls": 5.3682, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3127, "total_own_half_passes": 25.8943, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.7523, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2946, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.0468, "possession_lost": 6.4039, "dispossessed": 0.3553, "duels_lost": 2.2074, "aerial_lost": 0.98, "total_contest": 0.2429, "won_contest": 0.2429, "ball_recovery": 3.1935, "challenges_lost": 0.3946, "fouls": 0.4854, "fouls_drawn": 0.1868, "blocks": 0.8183, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0257, "expected_assists": 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}, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 0.5174, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064707 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023401 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020378 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.011607 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010116 } ], "others_margin": -0.022973 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.775174140930176, "model_output": 6.7752, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0123 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.677)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0899, "tackles": 1.382, "tackles_won": 0.7908, "clearances": 5.9544, "aerial_won": 2.3362, "total_shots": 0.5205, "rating": 6.7752, "minutes": 89.98, "total_pass": 48.0731, "accurate_pass": 41.7912, "duels_won": 4.1587, "total_long_balls": 4.9232, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6616, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.5148, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0066, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2764, "crosses_total": 0.5049, "crosses_accurate": 0.1146, "touches": 67.1075, "possession_lost": 9.9239, "dispossessed": 0.3692, "duels_lost": 3.6966, "aerial_lost": 2.2042, "total_contest": 0.4889, "won_contest": 0.2024, "ball_recovery": 2.9142, "challenges_lost": 0.3482, "fouls": 0.4886, "fouls_drawn": 0.0621, "blocks": 0.7316, "goals": 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"goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0605, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0117, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0149)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1186, "tackles": 1.7614, "tackles_won": 1.1142, "clearances": 5.0469, "aerial_won": 1.8072, "total_shots": 0.4531, "rating": 6.7732, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 53.3465, "accurate_pass": 47.2618, "duels_won": 4.2202, "total_long_balls": 5.2384, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4487, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.2169, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.1499, "fouls": 0.5689, "fouls_drawn": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.728, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0596, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0149, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9939, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.101, "after": 1.1142 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.128, "after": 1.1186 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5775, "after": 0.5689 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.3616, "after": 0.3562 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1186, "tackles": 1.7614, "tackles_won": 1.1142, "clearances": 5.0469, "aerial_won": 1.8072, "total_shots": 0.4531, "rating": 6.7732, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 53.3465, "accurate_pass": 47.2618, "duels_won": 4.2202, "total_long_balls": 5.2384, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4487, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.2169, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.1499, "fouls": 0.5689, "fouls_drawn": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.728, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0596, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919, "opponent_faced": "William Osula", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "William Osula", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1186, "tackles": 1.7614, "tackles_won": 1.1142, "clearances": 5.0469, "aerial_won": 1.8072, "total_shots": 0.4531, "rating": 6.7732, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 53.3465, "accurate_pass": 47.2618, "duels_won": 4.2202, "total_long_balls": 5.2384, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4487, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.2169, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.1499, "fouls": 0.5689, "fouls_drawn": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.728, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0497, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0596, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0205, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919, "opponent_faced": "William Osula", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1186, "tackles": 1.7614, "tackles_won": 1.1142, "clearances": 5.0469, "aerial_won": 1.8072, "total_shots": 0.4531, "rating": 6.7732, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 53.3465, "accurate_pass": 47.2618, "duels_won": 4.2202, "total_long_balls": 5.2384, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4487, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.2169, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.1499, "fouls": 0.5689, "fouls_drawn": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.728, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.0596, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0243, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919, "opponent_faced": "William Osula", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0497, "after": 0.0588 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0294, "after": 0.0392 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1186, "tackles": 1.7614, "tackles_won": 1.1142, "clearances": 5.0469, "aerial_won": 1.8072, "total_shots": 0.4531, "rating": 6.7732, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 53.3465, "accurate_pass": 47.2618, "duels_won": 4.2202, "total_long_balls": 5.2384, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4487, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.2169, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.1499, "fouls": 0.5689, "fouls_drawn": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.728, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.0596, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0243, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919, "opponent_faced": "William Osula", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3179, "fifa_rank": 1767.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1186, "tackles": 1.7614, "tackles_won": 1.1142, "clearances": 5.0469, "aerial_won": 1.8072, "total_shots": 0.4531, "rating": 6.7732, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 53.3465, "accurate_pass": 47.2618, "duels_won": 4.2202, "total_long_balls": 5.2384, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4487, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.2169, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.1499, "fouls": 0.5689, "fouls_drawn": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.728, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.0596, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0243, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919, "opponent_faced": "William Osula", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0571, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0571, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.047, "squad_weight_total": 1.6514, "weight_share": 0.0285, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "weight": 0.3822, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3822, "runner_up": "Ismaïla Sarr", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3693 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1186, "tackles": 1.7614, "tackles_won": 1.1142, "clearances": 5.0469, "aerial_won": 1.8072, "total_shots": 0.4531, "rating": 6.7732, "minutes": 89.45, "total_pass": 53.3465, "accurate_pass": 47.2618, "duels_won": 4.2202, "total_long_balls": 5.2384, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4487, "total_own_half_passes": 33.4994, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.2169, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.8471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.0448, "crosses_total": 0.3562, "crosses_accurate": 0.1604, "touches": 68.497, "possession_lost": 7.8951, "dispossessed": 0.3897, "duels_lost": 3.3055, "aerial_lost": 1.024, "total_contest": 0.2507, "won_contest": 0.0723, "ball_recovery": 3.3065, "challenges_lost": 1.1499, "fouls": 0.5689, "fouls_drawn": 0.4084, "blocks": 0.728, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0588, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "shots_on_target": 0.0596, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0243, "ball_carries": 18.7394, "total_progression": 89.554, "progressive_carries": 1.0743, "key_pass": 0.2705, "shots_off_target": 0.3919, "opponent_faced": "William Osula", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0571, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0384, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0384, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0314, "squad_weight_total": 0.917, "weight_share": 0.0342, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.1583, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1583, "runner_up": "Daichi Kamada", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1237, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta" ] } ] } } ] }, "Walter Benítez": { "player_id": 249859, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 44, "height": 193, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0775, "rating": 6.9925, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.989, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 9.5545, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6187, "shots_faced": 16.0, "expected_saves": 3.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.35, "opponent_faced": "William Osula, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8261, "goals_prevented": -0.0775, "rating": 6.9925, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.2609, "accurate_pass": 16.7064, "total_long_balls": 14.7686, "accurate_long_balls": 5.2141, "touches": 34.7197, "clearances": 0.989, "ball_recovery": 6.3251, "high_claims": 1.7002, "punches": 0.989, "aerial_won": 0.3268, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.6512, "possession_lost": 9.5545, "duels_won": 0.3268, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6032, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7699, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6187, "shots_faced": 15.4, "expected_saves": 3.77, "high_pressure_saves": 1.29, "opponent_faced": "William Osula, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8261, "goals_prevented": -0.0775, "rating": 6.9925, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.2609, "accurate_pass": 16.7064, "total_long_balls": 14.7686, "accurate_long_balls": 5.2141, "touches": 34.7197, "clearances": 0.989, "ball_recovery": 6.3251, "high_claims": 1.7002, "punches": 0.989, "aerial_won": 0.3268, "sweeper_actions": 0.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0, "saves_inside_box": 1.6512, "possession_lost": 9.5545, "duels_won": 0.3268, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6032, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.7699, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6187, "shots_faced": 16.0, "expected_saves": 3.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.35, "opponent_faced": "William Osula, Yoane Wissa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 15.4, "after": 16.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.77, "after": 3.91 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.29, "after": 1.35 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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6.7166, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0427 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0234, "total": 6.7166, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.042657 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.024739 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.014955 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013003 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.0122 } ], "others_margin": 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"margin": 0.265936 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.062881 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.062703 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058207 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037332 } ], "others_margin": -0.206706 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6512651443481445, "model_output": 6.6513, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0417 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0178 } ], "others": -0.0942, "total": 6.6513, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.041718 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.040506 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.020033 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.019853 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017758 } ], "others_margin": -0.094169 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0081, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3195, "goals": 0.361, "goal_rate": 0.361, "shots_on_target": 0.7735, "total_shots": 1.7021, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "key_pass": 0.5779, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 76.36, "total_pass": 10.2863, "accurate_pass": 6.5723, "duels_won": 3.5421, "total_long_balls": 0.5884, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3509, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5473, "crosses_total": 0.2411, "crosses_accurate": 0.1077, "touches": 21.9681, "possession_lost": 8.3405, "dispossessed": 1.4634, "duels_lost": 5.984, "aerial_lost": 2.997, "total_contest": 0.8876, "won_contest": 0.3702, "ball_recovery": 1.9072, "challenges_lost": 0.2315, "fouls": 0.8452, "fouls_drawn": 0.5629, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0277, "tackles_won": 0.0715, "tackles": 0.4938, "clearances": 1.7339, "blocks": 0.2153, "big_chances_created": 0.0889, "big_chances_missed": 1.0224, "xgot": 0.1923, "offsides": 0.7646, "ball_carries": 4.4959, "total_progression": 18.1214, "progressive_carries": 0.4766, "shots_off_target": 0.9286 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0081, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0040)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3195, "goals": 0.3596, "goal_rate": 0.3596, "shots_on_target": 0.7704, "total_shots": 1.7051, "expected_assists": 0.0354, "key_pass": 0.5779, "rating": 6.6513, "minutes": 76.36, "total_pass": 10.2863, "accurate_pass": 6.5723, "duels_won": 3.5421, "total_long_balls": 0.5884, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3509, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.5473, "crosses_total": 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"17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025034, "match_date": "2026-04-20", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1979 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 824, "combined_rank_score": 393.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 413.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9297, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 373.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9863, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dean Henderson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Michal Beran", "ranking": 819 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jisung", "ranking": 820 }, { "player_name": "Florian Thauvin", "ranking": 821 }, { "player_name": "Corentin Tolisso", "ranking": 822 }, { "player_name": "José María Giménez", "ranking": 823 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Palhinha", "ranking": 825 }, { "player_name": "Pape Gueye", "ranking": 826 }, { "player_name": "Caoimhin Kelleher", "ranking": 827 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Raíllo", "ranking": 828 }, { "player_name": "Dilshod Akhmadaliev", "ranking": 829 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 40, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 40, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 5.471593798579361, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.154, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0068, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Crystal Palace", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (40 historical appearances) to 5.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.15); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9354, "goals_prevented": -0.1006, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.9733, "accurate_pass": 16.1819, "total_long_balls": 15.7528, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0854, "touches": 38.34, "clearances": 1.7338, "ball_recovery": 8.9459, "high_claims": 0.8261, "punches": 1.3009, "aerial_won": 0.2128, "sweeper_actions": 0.7835, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7835, "saves_inside_box": 2.6185, "possession_lost": 11.8133, "duels_won": 0.2775, "duels_lost": 0.0539, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.0512, "fouls_drawn": 0.0237, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1192, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4026 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:04:36.867499+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-20", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.753, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8667, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.4196, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2478, "save_contribution": 3.1114, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7835 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9353506565093994, "model_output": 2.9354, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1773 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0733 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.037 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0211 } ], "others": 0.0273, "total": 2.9353, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06245 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026279 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.012997 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.008804 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.007281 } ], "others_margin": 0.009377 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.10064171999692917, "model_output": -0.1006, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0222, "total": -0.1006, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.024548 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.018884 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.018525 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.016686 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.016566 } ], "others_margin": -0.022193 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.986282825469971, "model_output": 6.9863, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.013 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 6.9863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.021359 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.018768 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.014949 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.013224 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013049 } ], "others_margin": 0.005962 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0068, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9553, "goals_prevented": -0.1013, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.1635, "accurate_pass": 16.2919, "total_long_balls": 15.8599, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1132, "touches": 38.6007, "clearances": 1.7456, "ball_recovery": 9.0067, "high_claims": 0.8317, "punches": 1.3097, "aerial_won": 0.2142, "sweeper_actions": 0.7888, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7888, "saves_inside_box": 2.6363, "possession_lost": 11.8936, "duels_won": 0.2794, "duels_lost": 0.0543, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.0515, "fouls_drawn": 0.0239, "total_own_half_passes": 15.222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4937 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0068, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9375, "goals_prevented": -0.1013, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 28.1635, "accurate_pass": 16.2919, "total_long_balls": 15.8599, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1132, "touches": 38.6007, "clearances": 1.7456, "ball_recovery": 9.0067, "high_claims": 0.8317, "punches": 1.3097, "aerial_won": 0.2142, "sweeper_actions": 0.7888, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7888, "saves_inside_box": 2.6363, "possession_lost": 11.8936, "duels_won": 0.2794, "duels_lost": 0.0543, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.051, "fouls_drawn": 0.0237, "total_own_half_passes": 15.222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4937 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal 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0.192, "appearance_probability": 0.154 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.564, "goals_prevented": -0.0194, "rating": 6.9863, "minutes": 5.47, "total_pass": 5.407, "accurate_pass": 3.1278, "total_long_balls": 3.0449, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7897, "touches": 7.4108, "clearances": 0.3351, "ball_recovery": 1.7292, "high_claims": 0.1597, "punches": 0.2514, "aerial_won": 0.0411, "sweeper_actions": 0.1514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1514, "saves_inside_box": 0.5061, "possession_lost": 2.2834, "duels_won": 0.0536, "duels_lost": 0.0104, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0098, "fouls_drawn": 0.0046, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9224, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5906, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.154, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the 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"contribution": -0.1895 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0723 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0428 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0427 } ], "others": -0.0488, "total": 0.2957, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.189478 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.072271 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.042756 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.042745 } ], "others_margin": -0.048876 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.551986217498779, "model_output": 6.552, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0702, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5793, "tackles": 1.0936, "tackles_won": 0.7487, "clearances": 1.9401, "aerial_won": 0.5684, "total_shots": 0.3165, "rating": 6.552, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 57.7908, "accurate_pass": 50.2994, "duels_won": 9.6318, "total_long_balls": 5.351, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0702, "total_own_half_passes": 35.3166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.106, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.4742, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1934, "crosses_total": 1.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.4054, "possession_lost": 10.702, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.2808, "aerial_lost": 1.0702, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 4.2808, "challenges_lost": 1.0702, "fouls": 2.1404, "fouls_drawn": 5.351, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023978, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024008, "match_date": "2026-02-22", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025143, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0158, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 62, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025107, "match_date": "2026-01-25", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0883, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3789, "combined_rank_score": 1771.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 856.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5667, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 2686.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7598, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Chadi Riad", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Vázquez", "ranking": 3784 }, { "player_name": "Çağlar Söyüncü", "ranking": 3785 }, { "player_name": "Victor Nelsson", "ranking": 3786 }, { "player_name": "Ilyas Ansah", "ranking": 3787 }, { "player_name": "Kristjan Asllani", "ranking": 3788 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Adalberto Carrasquilla", "ranking": 3790 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Dibling", "ranking": 3791 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Widell Zetterström", "ranking": 3792 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Crépeau", "ranking": 3793 }, { "player_name": "Pau Navarro", "ranking": 3794 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.758, "history_matches": 10, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", 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10.9563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4529, "crosses_total": 0.6608, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 32.863, "possession_lost": 6.4859, "dispossessed": 0.2809, "duels_lost": 3.2157, "aerial_lost": 1.4383, "total_contest": 0.2809, "won_contest": 0.2809, "ball_recovery": 0.6113, "challenges_lost": 0.7775, "fouls": 0.7191, "fouls_drawn": 0.3304, "blocks": 0.3887, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2809, "assist_rate": 0.2809, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "expected_assists": 0.005, "shots_on_target": 0.2809, "big_chances_created": 0.2809, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1808, "total_progression": 40.4905, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2809, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:05:26.369274+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 622, "rows": 20280 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1868, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1588, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1349, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1147, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-05", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0975, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0829, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 72.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0704, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-11", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0599, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0509, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-25", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0433, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 10.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.9627, "aerialWon": 1.4097, "totalClearance_p90": 4.7919, "totalTackle": 1.109, "totalPass": 42.7878 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.38634970784187317, "model_output": 0.3863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0395 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0282 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0236 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8573, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4808 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.008 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0257, "total": 0.3863, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.154, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.822979 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.062261 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.026023 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.019192 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.017516 } ], "others_margin": -0.063993 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5510692596435547, "model_output": 0.5511, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2622 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0451 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.043 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0317 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7605 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0249, "total": 0.5511, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.332089, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.788755 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.02933 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.02466 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.021648 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.019212 } ], "others_margin": -0.04438 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.3814844489097595, "model_output": 0.3815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2392 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.06 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0413 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4363 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 0.3815, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.714712 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.027088 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.026116 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.024734 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.018638 } ], "others_margin": 0.005016 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8728229999542236, "model_output": 1.8728, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0971 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2196 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.107 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1026 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0486 } ], "others": 0.0407, "total": 1.8728, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.935467 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.150292 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.065758 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059254 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.026908 } ], "others_margin": 0.021918 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.736380398273468, "model_output": 0.7364, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7753 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0304 } ], "others": -0.0008, "total": 0.7364, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.823268 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.057128 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.050351 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.045111 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.042068 } ], "others_margin": -0.000953 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2809, "model_output": 0.1468, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2362 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.032 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0269, "total": 0.1468, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.236226 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031967 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013943 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008368 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.006902 } ], "others_margin": -0.026884 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.759775161743164, "model_output": 6.7598, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": 0.0178, "total": 6.7598, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022177 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016654 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.015814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011553 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008405 } ], "others_margin": 0.017619 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.391, "tackles": 0.5577, "tackles_won": 0.3861, "clearances": 1.8953, "aerial_won": 0.7452, "total_shots": 0.2843, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 27.6967, "accurate_pass": 22.086, "duels_won": 2.6337, "total_long_balls": 2.977, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6776, "total_own_half_passes": 16.609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5438, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5423, "crosses_total": 0.6687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.2574, "possession_lost": 6.5637, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 3.2543, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.2843, "won_contest": 0.2843, "ball_recovery": 0.6186, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.7277, "fouls_drawn": 0.3344, "blocks": 0.3934, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2843, "assist_rate": 0.2843, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.2843, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.303, "total_progression": 40.9764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0115)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3906, "tackles": 0.5577, "tackles_won": 0.3858, "clearances": 1.8953, "aerial_won": 0.7452, "total_shots": 0.281, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 25.94, "total_pass": 27.6967, "accurate_pass": 22.086, "duels_won": 2.6337, "total_long_balls": 2.977, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6776, "total_own_half_passes": 16.609, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5438, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5423, "crosses_total": 0.661, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.2574, "possession_lost": 6.5637, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 3.2543, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.2843, "won_contest": 0.2843, "ball_recovery": 0.6186, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.7276, "fouls_drawn": 0.3305, "blocks": 0.3934, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.281, "assist_rate": 0.281, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.281, "big_chances_created": 0.2843, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.303, "total_progression": 40.9764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.2843, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0115, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2882, "prior_reliability": 0.0533, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.6687, "after": 0.661 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.9 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2156, "tackles": 0.3078, "tackles_won": 0.2129, "clearances": 1.046, "aerial_won": 0.4113, "total_shots": 0.1551, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 14.32, "total_pass": 15.2849, "accurate_pass": 12.1886, "duels_won": 1.4535, "total_long_balls": 1.6429, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3739, "total_own_half_passes": 9.166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1624, "crosses_total": 0.3648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3537, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 1.7959, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.1569, "won_contest": 0.1569, "ball_recovery": 0.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.4015, "fouls_drawn": 0.1824, "blocks": 0.2171, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1551, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.1551, "big_chances_created": 0.1569, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6859, "total_progression": 22.6136, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1569, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.32, "projection_minutes": 25.94, "minutes_scale": 0.5519, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2156, "tackles": 0.3078, "tackles_won": 0.2129, "clearances": 1.046, "aerial_won": 0.4113, "total_shots": 0.1551, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 14.32, "total_pass": 15.2849, "accurate_pass": 12.1886, "duels_won": 1.4535, "total_long_balls": 1.6429, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3739, "total_own_half_passes": 9.166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1624, "crosses_total": 0.3648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3537, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 1.7959, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.1569, "won_contest": 0.1569, "ball_recovery": 0.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.4015, "fouls_drawn": 0.1824, "blocks": 0.2171, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1551, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.1551, "big_chances_created": 0.1569, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6859, "total_progression": 22.6136, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1569, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.32 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2156, "tackles": 0.3078, "tackles_won": 0.2129, "clearances": 1.046, "aerial_won": 0.4113, "total_shots": 0.1551, "rating": 6.7598, "minutes": 14.32, "total_pass": 15.2849, "accurate_pass": 12.1886, "duels_won": 1.4535, "total_long_balls": 1.6429, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3739, "total_own_half_passes": 9.166, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1624, "crosses_total": 0.3648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.3537, "possession_lost": 3.6223, "dispossessed": 0.2843, "duels_lost": 1.7959, "aerial_lost": 1.4556, "total_contest": 0.1569, "won_contest": 0.1569, "ball_recovery": 0.3414, "challenges_lost": 0.7868, "fouls": 0.4015, "fouls_drawn": 0.1824, "blocks": 0.2171, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1551, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0139, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "shots_on_target": 0.1551, "big_chances_created": 0.1569, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.6859, "total_progression": 22.6136, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.1569, 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[ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.274159 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050108 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.043869 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.042313 } ], "others_margin": -0.034472 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.763008117675781, "model_output": 6.763, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0873 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.05, "total": 6.763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087284 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063206 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016021 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015844 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.01159 } ], "others_margin": -0.050019 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4961, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "assists": 0.0545, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.1791, "total_shots": 0.6099, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 33.297, "accurate_pass": 26.2113, "duels_won": 7.299, "total_long_balls": 3.032, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4313, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9044, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.307, "crosses_total": 0.7412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.4806, "possession_lost": 11.6022, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 4.6436, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.6902, "tackles_won": 2.0524, "tackles": 3.8153, "clearances": 1.0818, "total_contest": 1.7629, "won_contest": 1.0217, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.3803, "fouls_drawn": 2.0614, "blocks": 0.2895, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 13.8188, "total_progression": 76.8185, "progressive_carries": 2.8537, "shots_off_target": 0.4307 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.1003, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2046, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.1003, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1687 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.54 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0559, "after": 0.0357 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.049, "after": 0.0353 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1687, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1488, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1687, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "scorer_weight": 0.0446, "squad_weight_total": 1.6514, "weight_share": 0.027, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "weight": 0.3822, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3822, "runner_up": "Ismaïla Sarr", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3693 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0235, "total": 0.0749, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.557786 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.416793 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.232479 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.133698 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.118817 } ], "others_margin": -0.272948 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27516674995422363, "model_output": 0.2752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2799 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0357 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.025 } ], "others": -0.0122, "total": 0.2752, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.32968 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.279872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035686 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.0328 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024997 } ], "others_margin": -0.012263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717966079711914, "model_output": 6.718, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0009, "total": 6.718, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089344 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02504 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01868 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010643 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007612 } ], "others_margin": -0.000872 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4656, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0412, "assist_rate": 0.0412, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goals": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.024, "shots_on_target": 0.0752, "total_shots": 0.2763, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1305, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.588, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3314, "fouls_drawn": 0.1566, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2011 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4656, "expected_assists": 0.0385, "assists": 0.0412, "assist_rate": 0.0412, "expected_goals": 0.0192, "goals": 0.024, "goal_rate": 0.024, "shots_on_target": 0.0751, "total_shots": 0.276, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1293, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3311, "fouls_drawn": 0.1564, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2011 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.198, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.044, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.01, "projection_minutes": 17.82, "minutes_scale": 1.0668, "appearance_probability": 0.707 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.044, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goals": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0205, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.0318 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.707 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2145, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0723, "creation_factor": 1.0318, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 896, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4967, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.044, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0171, "goal_rate": 0.0256, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0801, "total_shots": 0.2946, "rating": 6.718, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, 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"total": 0.266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504413 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070962 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059555 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045016 } ], "others_margin": -0.170732 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648012638092041, "model_output": 6.648, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0415, "total": 6.648, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.049594 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012381 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011503 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.010676 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.009856 } ], "others_margin": -0.041492 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1178, "goals": 0.1471, "goal_rate": 0.1471, "shots_on_target": 0.3736, "total_shots": 0.8453, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.2684, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 29.25, "total_pass": 5.5834, "accurate_pass": 3.4377, "duels_won": 1.7034, "total_long_balls": 0.2677, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1276, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1934, "crosses_total": 0.0347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6615, "possession_lost": 4.6039, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.1765, "ball_recovery": 0.9737, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.67, "fouls_drawn": 0.157, "assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0566, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1349, "clearances": 0.2174, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0606, "big_chances_missed": 0.2575, "xgot": 0.016, "offsides": 0.2169, "ball_carries": 1.9333, "total_progression": 9.7439, "progressive_carries": 0.5125, "shots_off_target": 0.4717 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0092, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0047)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1178, "goals": 0.1464, "goal_rate": 0.1464, "shots_on_target": 0.3734, "total_shots": 0.8444, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.2684, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 29.25, "total_pass": 5.5834, "accurate_pass": 3.4377, "duels_won": 1.7034, "total_long_balls": 0.2677, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1276, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1934, "crosses_total": 0.0345, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6615, "possession_lost": 4.6039, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.1765, "ball_recovery": 0.9737, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.6714, "fouls_drawn": 0.1578, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0015, "tackles": 0.1349, "clearances": 0.2174, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0606, "big_chances_missed": 0.2575, "xgot": 0.016, "offsides": 0.2159, "ball_carries": 1.9333, "total_progression": 9.7439, "progressive_carries": 0.5125, "shots_off_target": 0.4717 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0047, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.325, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.2 to 27.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1103, "goals": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "shots_on_target": 0.3498, "total_shots": 0.7917, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2303, "accurate_pass": 3.2203, "duels_won": 1.5957, "total_long_balls": 0.2508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1195, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0547, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9872, "possession_lost": 4.3127, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.369, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.2848, "won_contest": 0.1653, "ball_recovery": 0.9121, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.6289, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0568, "big_chances_missed": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2159, "ball_carries": 1.811, "total_progression": 9.1276, "progressive_carries": 0.4801, "shots_off_target": 0.4419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.4, "projection_minutes": 29.25, "minutes_scale": 0.9368, "appearance_probability": 0.555 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1103, "goals": 0.1371, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "shots_on_target": 0.3498, "total_shots": 0.7917, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2303, "accurate_pass": 3.2203, "duels_won": 1.5957, "total_long_balls": 0.2508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1195, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0547, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9872, "possession_lost": 4.3127, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.369, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.2848, "won_contest": 0.1653, "ball_recovery": 0.9121, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.6289, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0568, "big_chances_missed": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2159, "ball_carries": 1.811, "total_progression": 9.1276, "progressive_carries": 0.4801, "shots_off_target": 0.4419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1103, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3498, "total_shots": 0.7917, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2303, "accurate_pass": 3.2203, "duels_won": 1.5957, "total_long_balls": 0.2508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1195, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0547, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9872, "possession_lost": 4.3127, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.369, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.2848, "won_contest": 0.1653, "ball_recovery": 0.9121, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.6289, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0568, "big_chances_missed": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2159, "ball_carries": 1.811, "total_progression": 9.1276, "progressive_carries": 0.4801, "shots_off_target": 0.4419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3498, "total_shots": 0.7917, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2303, "accurate_pass": 3.2203, "duels_won": 1.5957, "total_long_balls": 0.2508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1195, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0547, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9872, "possession_lost": 4.3127, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.369, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.2848, "won_contest": 0.1653, "ball_recovery": 0.9121, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.6289, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0568, "big_chances_missed": 0.2412, "xgot": 0.0098, "offsides": 0.2159, "ball_carries": 1.811, "total_progression": 9.1276, "progressive_carries": 0.4801, "shots_off_target": 0.4419, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1672, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.555 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1103, "after": 0.0724 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.1371, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3498, "total_shots": 0.7917, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.2514, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2303, "accurate_pass": 3.2203, "duels_won": 1.5957, "total_long_balls": 0.2508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1195, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0547, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9872, "possession_lost": 4.3127, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.369, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.2848, "won_contest": 0.1653, "ball_recovery": 0.9121, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.6289, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0568, "big_chances_missed": 0.2412, "xgot": 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"name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.002 } ], "others": -0.0102, "total": 0.0298, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.341404 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.085509 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064129 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.064084 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049725 } ], "others_margin": -0.29238 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.28221189975738525, "model_output": 0.2822, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2792 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.2822, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.534993 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068355 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.060129 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05516 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035264 } ], "others_margin": -0.116636 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.607211112976074, "model_output": 6.6072, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0486, "total": 6.6072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.050591 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018786 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012809 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012782 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011401 } ], "others_margin": -0.048581 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0526, "goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.2183, "total_shots": 0.5508, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "key_pass": 0.2847, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 6.0304, "accurate_pass": 5.4533, "duels_won": 2.0182, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4769, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0382, "crosses_total": 0.2646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.7402, "possession_lost": 3.3075, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.6643, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.8947, "won_contest": 0.2977, "ball_recovery": 0.8928, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.4647, "fouls_drawn": 0.5407, "assists": 0.0637, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "interceptions": 0.2169, "tackles_won": 0.2826, "tackles": 0.794, "clearances": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.0672, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 0.1219, "ball_carries": 3.5978, "total_progression": 14.4524, "progressive_carries": 0.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.3325 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0046)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0526, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "total_shots": 0.5503, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "key_pass": 0.2847, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 6.0304, "accurate_pass": 5.4533, "duels_won": 2.0182, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4769, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0382, "crosses_total": 0.2656, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.7402, "possession_lost": 3.3075, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.6643, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.8947, "won_contest": 0.2977, "ball_recovery": 0.8928, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.4669, "fouls_drawn": 0.5382, "assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "interceptions": 0.2159, "tackles_won": 0.2813, "tackles": 0.794, "clearances": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.0672, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.5978, "total_progression": 14.4524, "progressive_carries": 0.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.3325 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0046, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2819, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 27.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.19, "projection_minutes": 25.37, "minutes_scale": 1.0717, "appearance_probability": 0.738 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.063, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0677, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.738 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0492 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Rio", "ranking": 2985 }, { "player_name": "Takehiro Tomiyasu", "ranking": 2986 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.756, "history_matches": 23, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", 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"contribution": -0.2792 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0261 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 0.2822, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.534993 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.068355 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.060129 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05516 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035264 } ], "others_margin": -0.116636 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.607211112976074, "model_output": 6.6072, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0506 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0486, "total": 6.6072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.050591 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018786 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012809 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012782 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011401 } ], "others_margin": -0.048581 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0526, "goals": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0596, "shots_on_target": 0.2183, "total_shots": 0.5508, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "key_pass": 0.2847, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 6.0304, "accurate_pass": 5.4533, "duels_won": 2.0182, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4769, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0382, "crosses_total": 0.2646, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.7402, "possession_lost": 3.3075, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.6643, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.8947, "won_contest": 0.2977, "ball_recovery": 0.8928, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.4647, "fouls_drawn": 0.5407, "assists": 0.0637, "assist_rate": 0.0637, "interceptions": 0.2169, "tackles_won": 0.2826, "tackles": 0.794, "clearances": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.0672, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 0.1219, "ball_carries": 3.5978, "total_progression": 14.4524, "progressive_carries": 0.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.3325 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0046)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0526, "goals": 0.0593, "goal_rate": 0.0593, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "total_shots": 0.5503, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "key_pass": 0.2847, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 6.0304, "accurate_pass": 5.4533, "duels_won": 2.0182, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.4769, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0382, "crosses_total": 0.2656, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.7402, "possession_lost": 3.3075, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.6643, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.8947, "won_contest": 0.2977, "ball_recovery": 0.8928, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.4669, "fouls_drawn": 0.5382, "assists": 0.0634, "assist_rate": 0.0634, "interceptions": 0.2159, "tackles_won": 0.2813, "tackles": 0.794, "clearances": 0.3262, "blocks": 0.1081, "big_chances_created": 0.0672, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0673, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.5978, "total_progression": 14.4524, "progressive_carries": 0.6739, "shots_off_target": 0.3325 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0046, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2819, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 27.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.19, "projection_minutes": 25.37, "minutes_scale": 1.0717, "appearance_probability": 0.738 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0636, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0721, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0492, "goal_rate": 0.0636, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2351, "total_shots": 0.5915, "expected_assists": 0.0318, "key_pass": 0.3051, "rating": 6.6072, "minutes": 27.19, "total_pass": 6.463, "accurate_pass": 5.8445, "duels_won": 2.163, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3279, "crosses_total": 0.2847, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6542, "possession_lost": 3.5448, "dispossessed": 0.8005, "duels_lost": 2.8554, "aerial_lost": 0.5513, "total_contest": 0.9589, "won_contest": 0.3191, "ball_recovery": 0.9568, "challenges_lost": 0.251, "fouls": 0.5004, "fouls_drawn": 0.5768, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2314, "tackles_won": 0.3015, "tackles": 0.851, "clearances": 0.3496, "blocks": 0.1159, "big_chances_created": 0.072, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.063, "offsides": 0.1213, "ball_carries": 3.8559, "total_progression": 15.4892, "progressive_carries": 0.7222, "shots_off_target": 0.3564, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.738, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 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-0.0122, "total": 0.2752, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.32968 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.279872 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035686 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.0328 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024997 } ], "others_margin": -0.012263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.717966079711914, "model_output": 6.718, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": 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"total": 0.266, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.504413 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.079041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070962 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.059555 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045016 } ], "others_margin": -0.170732 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.648012638092041, "model_output": 6.648, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0496 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0092, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1178, "goals": 0.1471, "goal_rate": 0.1471, "shots_on_target": 0.3736, "total_shots": 0.8453, "expected_assists": 0.0187, "key_pass": 0.2684, "rating": 6.648, "minutes": 29.25, "total_pass": 5.5834, "accurate_pass": 3.4377, "duels_won": 1.7034, "total_long_balls": 0.2677, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1276, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.182, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1934, "crosses_total": 0.0347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6615, "possession_lost": 4.6039, "dispossessed": 0.507, "duels_lost": 2.529, "aerial_lost": 1.2469, "total_contest": 0.304, "won_contest": 0.1765, "ball_recovery": 0.9737, "challenges_lost": 0.1275, "fouls": 0.67, "fouls_drawn": 0.157, "assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0566, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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"contribution": 0.0089 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0057 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.045, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.556549 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.152443 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.094997 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.078026 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.055072 } ], "others_margin": -0.109254 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0807780995965004, "model_output": 0.0808, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": 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}, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1504 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.1738, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.62413 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.21186 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.07545 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058114 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.040772 } ], "others_margin": -0.036278 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5916868448257446, "model_output": 0.5917, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5022 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2742 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0439 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0423 } ], "others": -0.0345, "total": 0.5917, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.502174 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.274159 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050108 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.043869 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.042313 } ], "others_margin": -0.034472 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.763008117675781, "model_output": 6.763, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0873 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0632 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.05, "total": 6.763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.087284 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063206 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016021 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015844 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.01159 } ], "others_margin": -0.050019 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4961, "expected_assists": 0.0407, "assists": 0.0545, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "expected_goals": 0.0464, "goals": 0.0833, "goal_rate": 0.0833, "shots_on_target": 0.1791, "total_shots": 0.6099, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 33.297, "accurate_pass": 26.2113, "duels_won": 7.299, "total_long_balls": 3.032, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4313, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9044, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.4731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.307, "crosses_total": 0.7412, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.4806, "possession_lost": 11.6022, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 4.6436, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.6902, "tackles_won": 2.0524, "tackles": 3.8153, "clearances": 1.0818, "total_contest": 1.7629, "won_contest": 1.0217, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.3803, "fouls_drawn": 2.0614, "blocks": 0.2895, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.02, "ball_carries": 13.8188, "total_progression": 76.8185, "progressive_carries": 2.8537, "shots_off_target": 0.4307 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.1003, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2046, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assists": 0.0657, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.1003, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0241, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.60 (squad xG sum 1.3541, xG scale 1.1831, xA scale 1.3335, team xA 1.04 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1687 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.602, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3541, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7809, "team_expected_assists": 1.0413, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1831, "xa_scale": 1.3335, "opponent_lambda": 1.686, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.54 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0559, "after": 0.0357 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.049, "after": 0.0353 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1687, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1488, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1687, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "scorer_weight": 0.0446, "squad_weight_total": 1.6514, "weight_share": 0.027, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "weight": 0.3822, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3822, "runner_up": "Ismaïla Sarr", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3693 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5976, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.1003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.7347, "rating": 6.763, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 40.1095, "accurate_pass": 31.5741, "duels_won": 8.7924, "total_long_balls": 3.6523, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7241, "total_own_half_passes": 16.6522, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5446, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.4573, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.0296, "crosses_total": 0.8928, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 63.218, "possession_lost": 13.976, "dispossessed": 1.0908, "duels_lost": 5.5937, "aerial_won": 0.4826, "aerial_lost": 1.4313, "interceptions": 0.8314, "tackles_won": 2.4723, "tackles": 4.5959, "clearances": 1.3031, "total_contest": 2.1236, "won_contest": 1.2307, "challenges_lost": 0.4006, "fouls": 1.6627, "fouls_drawn": 2.4832, "blocks": 0.3487, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0154, "ball_carries": 16.6461, "total_progression": 92.5354, "progressive_carries": 3.4376, "shots_off_target": 0.5188, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.901, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0345, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1687, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0657, "provider_weight": 0.0413, "squad_weight_total": 0.917, "weight_share": 0.045, "creation_factor": 1.1687, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adam Wharton", "weight": 0.1583, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1583, "runner_up": "Daichi Kamada", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1237, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.6, "expected_assists": 1.04, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 431, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 24, "avg_rating": 6.82, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } }, "Newcastle": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Lukáš Horníček": { "player_id": 963744, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 194, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0206, "rating": 6.9391, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 45, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.2724, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 13.3245, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3635, "shots_faced": 15.2, "expected_saves": 3.72, "high_pressure_saves": 1.28, "opponent_faced": "Ismaïla Sarr, Jean-Philippe Mateta", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363888, "match_date": "2026-10-17 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Newcastle", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 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"ranking": 1047 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Tavernier", "ranking": 1048 }, { "player_name": "Wojciech Szczęsny", "ranking": 1049 }, { "player_name": "Matías Bórquez", "ranking": 1050 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro Buongiorno", "ranking": 1051 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jong-seong Lee", "ranking": 1053 }, { "player_name": "Jun-hong Kim", "ranking": 1054 }, { "player_name": "Kim Seong-Ju", "ranking": 1055 }, { "player_name": "Zach Lisolajski", "ranking": 1056 }, { "player_name": "Izzatillo Pulatov", "ranking": 1057 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", 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0.6539, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2346 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0567 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0454 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0367 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0263 } ], "others": -0.0896, "total": 0.6539, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.298679 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06448 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.054741 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.046571 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.0347 } ], "others_margin": -0.128471 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.703946113586426, "model_output": 6.7039, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0481 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0317 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 6.7039, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048099 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031681 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0536 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0428 } ], "others": 0.1304, "total": 1.1263, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.258671 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.062495 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.058326 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.052998 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.042125 } ], "others_margin": 0.123106 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.876157283782959, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0085, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1576, "goals": 0.2299, "goal_rate": 0.2299, "shots_on_target": 0.5935, "total_shots": 1.836, "expected_assists": 0.1149, "key_pass": 1.1358, "rating": 6.8762, "minutes": 85.0, "total_pass": 22.0999, "accurate_pass": 17.8189, "duels_won": 3.1485, "total_long_balls": 0.9049, "accurate_long_balls": 0.386, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8789, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.3097, "crosses_total": 2.2211, "crosses_accurate": 0.2475, "touches": 37.4351, "possession_lost": 10.4053, "dispossessed": 0.6485, "duels_lost": 4.0495, "aerial_lost": 0.7624, "total_contest": 1.6053, "won_contest": 0.4458, "ball_recovery": 3.1323, "challenges_lost": 0.6722, "fouls": 0.8327, "fouls_drawn": 1.4949, "assists": 0.3773, "assist_rate": 0.3773, "interceptions": 0.4328, 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023983, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1197, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 37, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023977, "match_date": "2026-02-28", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": 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"key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1539, "combined_rank_score": 627.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 587.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7926, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 667.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8454, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joelinton", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kota Mizunuma", "ranking": 1534 }, { "player_name": "César Pinares", "ranking": 1535 }, { "player_name": "Ivan 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0441 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": -0.0476, "total": 0.2925, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.185354 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.152264 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123682 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058717 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.049653 } ], "others_margin": -0.150629 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.203561544418335, "model_output": 1.2036, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2399 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1454 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0853 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0399 } ], "others": -0.0804, "total": 1.2036, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.239873 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.145384 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.085335 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046358 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.039891 } ], "others_margin": -0.080357 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.845402240753174, "model_output": 6.8454, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0253 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 6.8454, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033002 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025344 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017716 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010687 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006652 } ], "others_margin": -0.011505 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7055, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "goals": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.2944, "total_shots": 1.2113, "rating": 6.8454, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.628, "accurate_pass": 30.9249, "duels_won": 6.6725, "total_long_balls": 1.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0417, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8833, "crosses_total": 0.4499, "crosses_accurate": 0.1182, "touches": 53.7478, "possession_lost": 11.0994, "dispossessed": 1.4286, "duels_lost": 7.3334, "aerial_won": 2.7851, "aerial_lost": 2.3773, "interceptions": 1.4367, "tackles_won": 1.3785, "tackles": 1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.009, "xgot": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.9169 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7055, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "expected_goals": 0.0811, "goals": 0.0907, "goal_rate": 0.0907, "shots_on_target": 0.2944, "total_shots": 1.2113, "rating": 6.8454, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.628, "accurate_pass": 30.9249, "duels_won": 6.6725, "total_long_balls": 1.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0417, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8833, "crosses_total": 0.4499, "crosses_accurate": 0.1182, "touches": 53.7478, "possession_lost": 11.0994, "dispossessed": 1.4286, "duels_lost": 7.3334, "aerial_won": 2.7851, "aerial_lost": 2.3773, "interceptions": 1.4367, "tackles_won": 1.3785, "tackles": 1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.009, "xgot": 0.1091, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.9169 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7055, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "assists": 0.0677, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "expected_goals": 0.0794, "goals": 0.0888, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.2881, "total_shots": 1.1854, "rating": 6.8454, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.628, "accurate_pass": 30.9249, "duels_won": 6.6725, "total_long_balls": 1.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0417, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8833, "crosses_total": 0.4499, "crosses_accurate": 0.1182, "touches": 53.7478, "possession_lost": 11.0994, "dispossessed": 1.4286, "duels_lost": 7.3334, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3773, "interceptions": 1.4367, "tackles_won": 1.3785, "tackles": 1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1068, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.8973, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Axel Disasi", "opponent_faced": "Axel Disasi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Axel Disasi", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "skill_edge": 0.0014, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.6376, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Axel Disasi", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6376 } ], "xg_override": 0.0794 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 2.7851, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2113, "after": 1.1854 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9169, "after": 0.8973 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2944, "after": 0.2881 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7055, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0794, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2881, "total_shots": 1.1854, "rating": 6.8454, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.628, "accurate_pass": 30.9249, "duels_won": 6.6725, "total_long_balls": 1.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0417, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8833, "crosses_total": 0.4499, "crosses_accurate": 0.1182, "touches": 53.7478, "possession_lost": 11.0994, "dispossessed": 1.4286, "duels_lost": 7.3334, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3773, "interceptions": 1.4367, "tackles_won": 1.3785, "tackles": 1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1068, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.8973, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Axel Disasi", "opponent_faced": "Axel Disasi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7055, "expected_assists": 0.0901, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2881, "total_shots": 1.1854, "rating": 6.8454, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.628, "accurate_pass": 30.9249, "duels_won": 6.6725, "total_long_balls": 1.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0417, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8833, "crosses_total": 0.4499, "crosses_accurate": 0.1182, "touches": 53.7478, "possession_lost": 11.0994, "dispossessed": 1.4286, "duels_lost": 7.3334, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3773, "interceptions": 1.4367, "tackles_won": 1.3785, "tackles": 1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1329, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.8973, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Axel Disasi", "opponent_faced": "Axel Disasi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "creation_factor": 1.0959 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0794, "after": 0.0988 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0574, "after": 0.0901 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7055, "expected_assists": 0.0901, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2881, "total_shots": 1.1854, "rating": 6.8454, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.628, "accurate_pass": 30.9249, "duels_won": 6.6725, "total_long_balls": 1.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0417, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8833, "crosses_total": 0.4499, "crosses_accurate": 0.1182, "touches": 53.7478, "possession_lost": 11.0994, "dispossessed": 1.4286, "duels_lost": 7.3334, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3773, "interceptions": 1.4367, "tackles_won": 1.3785, "tackles": 1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1329, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.8973, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Axel Disasi", "opponent_faced": "Axel Disasi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "creation_factor": 1.0959, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1539, "fifa_rank": 667.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS 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1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1329, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.8973, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Axel Disasi", "opponent_faced": "Axel Disasi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0941, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "creation_factor": 1.0959, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0941, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "scorer_weight": 0.106, "squad_weight_total": 1.813, "weight_share": 0.0585, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "William Osula", "weight": 0.528, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.528, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7055, "expected_assists": 0.0901, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.0888, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2881, "total_shots": 1.1854, "rating": 6.8454, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 37.628, "accurate_pass": 30.9249, "duels_won": 6.6725, "total_long_balls": 1.7197, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1437, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1816, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0417, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.4464, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8833, "crosses_total": 0.4499, "crosses_accurate": 0.1182, "touches": 53.7478, "possession_lost": 11.0994, "dispossessed": 1.4286, "duels_lost": 7.3334, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 2.3773, "interceptions": 1.4367, "tackles_won": 1.3785, "tackles": 1.9727, "clearances": 1.4846, "total_contest": 2.2457, "won_contest": 1.275, "challenges_lost": 0.7471, "fouls": 2.3227, "fouls_drawn": 0.6397, "blocks": 0.0543, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "big_chances_missed": 0.0088, "xgot": 0.1329, "ball_carries": 14.1234, "total_progression": 46.8106, "progressive_carries": 1.0316, "shots_off_target": 0.8973, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Axel Disasi", "opponent_faced": "Axel Disasi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0941, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0862, "finishing_factor": 1.0726, "creation_factor": 1.0959, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0862, "assist_rate": 0.0677, "provider_weight": 0.0987, "squad_weight_total": 1.1691, "weight_share": 0.0845, "creation_factor": 1.0959, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2254, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1787 } ] } } ] }, "Nico González": { "player_id": 954056, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082478 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.03315 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033072 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.017363 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016382 } ], "others_margin": -0.026119 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0151, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0.056, "assist_rate": 0.056, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, "possession_lost": 6.8772, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.6794, "aerial_won": 0.9044, "aerial_lost": 0.889, "interceptions": 0.9713, "tackles_won": 0.6722, "tackles": 1.1522, "clearances": 1.141, "total_contest": 0.532, "won_contest": 0.401, "challenges_lost": 1.1716, "fouls": 1.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.7183, "blocks": 0.2619, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 18.0477, "total_progression": 34.0231, "progressive_carries": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.4536 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.0151, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0.056, "assist_rate": 0.056, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, "possession_lost": 6.8772, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.6794, "aerial_won": 0.9044, "aerial_lost": 0.889, "interceptions": 0.9713, "tackles_won": 0.6722, "tackles": 1.1522, "clearances": 1.141, "total_contest": 0.532, "won_contest": 0.401, "challenges_lost": 1.1716, "fouls": 1.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.7183, "blocks": 0.2619, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 18.0477, "total_progression": 34.0231, "progressive_carries": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.4536 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0.056, "assist_rate": 0.056, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, "possession_lost": 6.8772, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.6794, "aerial_won": 0.9044, "aerial_lost": 0.889, "interceptions": 0.9713, "tackles_won": 0.6722, "tackles": 1.1522, "clearances": 1.141, "total_contest": 0.532, "won_contest": 0.401, "challenges_lost": 1.1716, "fouls": 1.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.7183, "blocks": 0.2619, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 18.0477, "total_progression": 34.0231, "progressive_carries": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.4536, "opponent_faced": "Ismaïla Sarr, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ismaïla Sarr, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0332, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, "possession_lost": 6.8772, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.6794, "aerial_won": 0.9044, "aerial_lost": 0.889, "interceptions": 0.9713, "tackles_won": 0.6722, "tackles": 1.1522, "clearances": 1.141, "total_contest": 0.532, "won_contest": 0.401, "challenges_lost": 1.1716, "fouls": 1.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.7183, "blocks": 0.2619, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0053, "ball_carries": 18.0477, "total_progression": 34.0231, "progressive_carries": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.4536, "opponent_faced": "Ismaïla Sarr, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0774, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, "possession_lost": 6.8772, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.6794, "aerial_won": 0.9044, "aerial_lost": 0.889, "interceptions": 0.9713, "tackles_won": 0.6722, "tackles": 1.1522, "clearances": 1.141, "total_contest": 0.532, "won_contest": 0.401, "challenges_lost": 1.1716, "fouls": 1.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.7183, "blocks": 0.2619, "big_chances_created": 0.0099, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0066, "ball_carries": 18.0477, "total_progression": 34.0231, "progressive_carries": 0.2633, "shots_off_target": 0.4536, "opponent_faced": "Ismaïla Sarr, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0553, "creation_factor": 1.0675 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0332, "after": 0.0413 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0493, "after": 0.0774 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0774, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, "possession_lost": 6.8772, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.6794, "aerial_won": 0.9044, "aerial_lost": 0.889, "interceptions": 0.9713, "tackles_won": 0.6722, "tackles": 1.1522, "clearances": 1.141, "total_contest": 0.532, "won_contest": 0.401, "challenges_lost": 1.1716, "fouls": 1.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.7183, "blocks": 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goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0774, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, "possession_lost": 6.8772, "dispossessed": 0.7492, "duels_lost": 4.6794, "aerial_won": 0.9044, "aerial_lost": 0.889, "interceptions": 0.9713, "tackles_won": 0.6722, "tackles": 1.1522, "clearances": 1.141, "total_contest": 0.532, "won_contest": 0.401, "challenges_lost": 1.1716, "fouls": 1.8409, "fouls_drawn": 0.7183, "blocks": 0.2619, 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"runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.688, "expected_assists": 0.0774, "assist_rate": 0.056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1596, "total_shots": 0.6133, "rating": 6.9063, "minutes": 69.23, "total_pass": 53.1724, "accurate_pass": 48.1663, "duels_won": 3.1758, "total_long_balls": 3.4186, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0042, "total_own_half_passes": 22.7088, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0926, "total_opp_half_passes": 30.4636, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.0737, "crosses_total": 0.3056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0431, "touches": 62.1763, 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0.1717 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0666 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0258 } ], "others": 0.0545, "total": 0.8574, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.171708 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066575 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.038326 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029408 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025801 } ], "others_margin": 0.054435 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0317702293396, "model_output": 7.0318, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0708 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0524, "total": 7.0318, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.070839 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053028 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033814 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.022665 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.014047 } ], "others_margin": 0.052245 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0122, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0561, "tackles": 2.2966, "tackles_won": 1.317, "clearances": 3.3014, "aerial_won": 1.1147, "total_shots": 0.8679, "rating": 7.0318, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.4817, "accurate_pass": 43.4625, "duels_won": 5.5056, "total_long_balls": 5.7639, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0917, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.1238, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5805, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3386, "crosses_total": 3.9307, "crosses_accurate": 0.9581, "touches": 81.7498, "possession_lost": 15.3079, "dispossessed": 1.692, "duels_lost": 6.6808, "aerial_lost": 1.8185, "total_contest": 2.7703, "won_contest": 1.2044, "ball_recovery": 6.5173, "challenges_lost": 0.9148, "fouls": 0.701, "fouls_drawn": 1.4065, "blocks": 1.166, "goals": 0.1712, "goal_rate": 0.1712, "assists": 0.113, "assist_rate": 0.113, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.119, "shots_on_target": 0.4286, "big_chances_created": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0395, "ball_carries": 17.945, "total_progression": 75.0068, "progressive_carries": 1.9776, "key_pass": 1.1277, "shots_off_target": 0.4393 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0122, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0605, "tackles": 2.2966, "tackles_won": 1.3239, "clearances": 3.3014, "aerial_won": 1.1147, "total_shots": 0.8638, "rating": 7.0318, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.4817, "accurate_pass": 43.4625, "duels_won": 5.5056, "total_long_balls": 5.7639, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0917, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.1238, 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"after": 0.7093 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.317, "after": 1.3239 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0605, "tackles": 2.2966, "tackles_won": 1.3239, "clearances": 3.3014, "aerial_won": 1.1147, "total_shots": 0.8638, "rating": 7.0318, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.4817, "accurate_pass": 43.4625, "duels_won": 5.5056, "total_long_balls": 5.7639, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0917, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.1238, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5805, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3386, "crosses_total": 3.9305, "crosses_accurate": 0.9581, "touches": 81.7498, "possession_lost": 15.3079, "dispossessed": 1.692, "duels_lost": 6.6808, "aerial_lost": 1.8185, "total_contest": 2.7703, "won_contest": 1.2044, "ball_recovery": 6.5173, "challenges_lost": 0.9148, "fouls": 0.7093, "fouls_drawn": 1.4019, "blocks": 1.166, "goals": 0.1693, "goal_rate": 0.1693, "assists": 0.1118, "assist_rate": 0.1118, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.119, "shots_on_target": 0.424, "big_chances_created": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0395, "ball_carries": 17.945, "total_progression": 75.0068, "progressive_carries": 1.9776, "key_pass": 1.1277, "shots_off_target": 0.4393 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0605, "tackles": 2.2966, "tackles_won": 1.3239, "clearances": 3.3014, "aerial_won": 1.1147, "total_shots": 0.8638, "rating": 7.0318, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.4817, "accurate_pass": 43.4625, "duels_won": 5.5056, "total_long_balls": 5.7639, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0917, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.1238, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5805, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3386, "crosses_total": 3.9305, "crosses_accurate": 0.9581, "touches": 81.7498, "possession_lost": 15.3079, "dispossessed": 1.692, "duels_lost": 6.6808, "aerial_lost": 1.8185, "total_contest": 2.7703, "won_contest": 1.2044, "ball_recovery": 6.5173, "challenges_lost": 0.9148, "fouls": 0.7093, "fouls_drawn": 1.4019, "blocks": 1.166, "goals": 0.1693, "goal_rate": 0.1693, "assists": 0.1118, "assist_rate": 0.1118, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.119, "shots_on_target": 0.424, "big_chances_created": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0395, "ball_carries": 17.945, "total_progression": 75.0068, "progressive_carries": 1.9776, "key_pass": 1.1277, "shots_off_target": 0.4393, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0605, "tackles": 2.2966, "tackles_won": 1.3239, "clearances": 3.3014, "aerial_won": 1.1147, "total_shots": 0.8638, "rating": 7.0318, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.4817, "accurate_pass": 43.4625, "duels_won": 5.5056, "total_long_balls": 5.7639, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0917, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.1238, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5805, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3386, "crosses_total": 3.9305, "crosses_accurate": 0.9581, "touches": 81.7498, "possession_lost": 15.3079, "dispossessed": 1.692, "duels_lost": 6.6808, "aerial_lost": 1.8185, "total_contest": 2.7703, "won_contest": 1.2044, "ball_recovery": 6.5173, "challenges_lost": 0.9148, "fouls": 0.7093, "fouls_drawn": 1.4019, "blocks": 1.166, "goal_rate": 0.1693, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1118, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "expected_assists": 0.119, "shots_on_target": 0.424, "big_chances_created": 0.2693, "xgot": 0.0395, "ball_carries": 17.945, "total_progression": 75.0068, "progressive_carries": 1.9776, "key_pass": 1.1277, "shots_off_target": 0.4393, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715, "opponent_faced": "Daichi Kamada", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0605, "tackles": 2.2966, "tackles_won": 1.3239, "clearances": 3.3014, "aerial_won": 1.1147, "total_shots": 0.8638, "rating": 7.0318, "minutes": 87.98, "total_pass": 49.4817, "accurate_pass": 43.4625, "duels_won": 5.5056, "total_long_balls": 5.7639, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0917, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9012, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.1238, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.5805, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3386, "crosses_total": 3.9305, "crosses_accurate": 0.9581, "touches": 81.7498, "possession_lost": 15.3079, "dispossessed": 1.692, "duels_lost": 6.6808, "aerial_lost": 1.8185, "total_contest": 2.7703, "won_contest": 1.2044, "ball_recovery": 6.5173, "challenges_lost": 0.9148, 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"team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0549, "after": 0.0683 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.119, "after": 0.1867 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0685 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0204 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": 0.0191, "total": 0.6571, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06846 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.042291 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.020428 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.02018 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.015542 } ], "others_margin": 0.019038 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.929070472717285, "model_output": 6.9291, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "error_severity", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": 0.09, "total": 6.9291, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021397 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.019231 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018104 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.017714 }, { "name": "error_severity", "margin": 0.013772 } ], "others_margin": 0.089926 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2133, "tackles": 1.3323, "tackles_won": 0.7487, "clearances": 6.8846, "aerial_won": 3.3246, "total_shots": 0.6616, "rating": 6.9291, "minutes": 88.9, "total_pass": 59.1638, "accurate_pass": 51.3983, "duels_won": 6.3293, "total_long_balls": 6.8146, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1053, "total_own_half_passes": 43.1368, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.0519, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.027, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3465, 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.0743, "assists": 0.0764, "assist_rate": 0.0764, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0427, "shots_on_target": 0.1461, "total_shots": 0.5058, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4546, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0346, "tackles_won": 1.042, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3363, "fouls_drawn": 0.2527, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.031, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 32000000, "quality_factor": 0.732, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0118)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.0743, "assists": 0.0755, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.031, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0118, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9378, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.4546, "after": 1.4374 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2527, "after": 0.262 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.042, "after": 1.0358 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.0743, "assists": 0.0755, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.031, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.0743, "assists": 0.0755, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goals": 0.0422, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.031, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597, "opponent_faced": "Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.0743, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0424, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.031, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597, "opponent_faced": "Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597, "opponent_faced": "Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9978, "creation_factor": 1.0097 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0424, "after": 0.0528 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0743, "after": 0.1166 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597, "opponent_faced": "Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9978, "creation_factor": 1.0097, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2108, "fifa_rank": 1442.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597, "opponent_faced": "Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9978, "creation_factor": 1.0097, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "scorer_weight": 0.0527, "squad_weight_total": 1.813, "weight_share": 0.0291, "finishing_factor": 0.9978, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "William Osula", "weight": 0.528, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.528, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.814, "expected_assists": 0.1166, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.0422, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "total_shots": 0.5059, "rating": 6.9125, "minutes": 84.4, "total_pass": 51.3158, "accurate_pass": 45.9622, "duels_won": 4.276, "total_long_balls": 2.9853, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4775, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9631, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3065, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.3527, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.6557, "crosses_total": 1.4374, "crosses_accurate": 0.1709, "touches": 65.8764, "possession_lost": 8.6121, "dispossessed": 0.5131, "duels_lost": 2.8573, "aerial_won": 1.8884, "aerial_lost": 0.9966, "interceptions": 1.0347, "tackles_won": 1.0358, "tackles": 1.6179, "clearances": 2.6139, "total_contest": 0.7309, "won_contest": 0.5482, "challenges_lost": 0.8287, "fouls": 0.3385, "fouls_drawn": 0.262, "blocks": 0.4673, "big_chances_created": 0.0798, "big_chances_missed": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0386, "ball_carries": 17.9931, "total_progression": 35.0351, "progressive_carries": 0.6319, "shots_off_target": 0.3597, "opponent_faced": "Anan Khalaili", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0514, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1101, "finishing_factor": 0.9978, "creation_factor": 1.0097, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1101, "assist_rate": 0.0755, "provider_weight": 0.1177, "squad_weight_total": 1.1691, "weight_share": 0.1007, "creation_factor": 1.0097, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2254, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1787 } ] } } ] }, "William Osula": { "player_id": 1122603, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 191, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4224, "goal_rate": 0.4789, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1131, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.909, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 5.46, "dispossessed": 0.9736, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2022, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, 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"season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Coventry", "away_team": "Newcastle", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Newcastle", "opponent": "Coventry", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1216, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023957, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9106, "expected_assists": 0.1517, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023943, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.1, 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"expected_goals": 0.9399, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3411, "combined_rank_score": 1395.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 570.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8091, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 2220.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.909, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "William Osula", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Anis Hadj 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"contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": 0.0529 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0393 } ], "others": 0.0076, "total": 0.9056, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.621795, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.276561 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.069654 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.067363 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.055757 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04473 } ], "others_margin": 0.008544 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.1014275550842285, "model_output": 2.1014, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2742 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3787, "items": [ { 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0053 } ], "others": -0.0049, "total": 0.0714, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.234019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.121652 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.091042 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.079393 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.071502 } ], "others_margin": -0.067484 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7912179231643677, "model_output": 0.7912, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0317 } ], "others": 0.0694, "total": 0.7912, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.288595 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076965 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.050751 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049476 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043021 } ], "others_margin": 0.091996 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.908990859985352, "model_output": 6.909, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0756 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0137 } ], "others": 0.0391, "total": 6.909, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.075564 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.055093 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.020733 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016038 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013688 } ], "others_margin": 0.039255 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8192 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1644 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0758, "total": 0.2911, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.89841 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.345565 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.076947 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.04792 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042468 } ], "others_margin": -0.231143 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.13063101470470428, "model_output": 0.1306, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2281 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0779 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 0.1306, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228092 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.077869 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.013137 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009468 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.007192 } ], "others_margin": -0.019127 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729485988616943, "model_output": 6.7295, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0351 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0447, "total": 6.7295, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03508 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.023048 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019518 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.014344 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.010784 } ], "others_margin": -0.044596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0185, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.6731, "tackles_won": 0.4004, "clearances": 0.8189, "aerial_won": 0.2965, "total_shots": 0.133, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 22.99, "total_pass": 15.0184, "accurate_pass": 12.7556, "duels_won": 1.5999, "total_long_balls": 1.2931, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4021, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5044, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.9485, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2512, "crosses_total": 1.7565, "crosses_accurate": 0.5357, "touches": 22.9771, "possession_lost": 4.3707, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9932, "aerial_lost": 0.1434, "total_contest": 0.8322, "won_contest": 0.4554, "ball_recovery": 2.6254, "challenges_lost": 0.1984, "fouls": 0.2746, "fouls_drawn": 0.3968, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0214, "total_progression": 22.6221, "progressive_carries": 0.4239, "key_pass": 0.2037, "shots_off_target": 0.0868, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.364, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1832, "tackles": 0.4394, "tackles_won": 0.2614, "clearances": 0.5346, "aerial_won": 0.1936, "total_shots": 0.0868, "rating": 6.7295, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 9.8047, "accurate_pass": 8.3275, "duels_won": 1.0445, "total_long_balls": 0.8442, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2625, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6156, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1892, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0811, "crosses_total": 1.1467, "crosses_accurate": 0.3497, "touches": 15.0006, "possession_lost": 2.8534, "dispossessed": 0.0, 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"position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 37, "height": 180, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7398, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 8.6865, "dispossessed": 0.3245, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1856, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 56, 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"importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8544, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4568 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0002, "total": 0.4199, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.764935 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.049628 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.047091 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.029983 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.026624 } ], "others_margin": 0.000593 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.9850148558616638, "model_output": 0.985, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7998 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0811 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0223 } ], "others": -0.0589, "total": 0.4352, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.86442 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.150049 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.078293 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.048197 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.044203 } ], "others_margin": -0.126923 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3270629048347473, "model_output": 0.3271, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2366 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0354 } ], "others": 0.0107, "total": 0.3271, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.236588 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04149 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.039866 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.035945 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035381 } ], "others_margin": 0.010599 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.739768981933594, "model_output": 6.7398, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.011 } ], "others": -0.0353, "total": 6.7398, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025916 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021974 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016396 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.013455 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.011013 } ], "others_margin": -0.035349 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0342, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4108, "tackles": 0.6369, "tackles_won": 0.4343, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.4501, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7398, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 30.7148, "accurate_pass": 25.693, "duels_won": 5.0809, "total_long_balls": 2.1863, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7862, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1913, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7912, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9018, "crosses_total": 1.0207, "crosses_accurate": 0.7448, "touches": 53.2992, "possession_lost": 10.6717, "dispossessed": 0.3245, "duels_lost": 5.1908, "aerial_lost": 1.6833, "total_contest": 2.8194, "won_contest": 1.062, "ball_recovery": 3.9727, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.4255, "fouls_drawn": 0.909, "blocks": 0.4337, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.2345, "assist_rate": 0.2345, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0953, "total_progression": 68.7416, "progressive_carries": 1.4607, "key_pass": 0.469, "shots_off_target": 0.3383 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0342, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.391, "tackles": 0.6369, "tackles_won": 0.4182, "clearances": 1.0187, "aerial_won": 0.4501, "total_shots": 0.3268, "rating": 6.7398, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 30.7148, "accurate_pass": 25.693, "duels_won": 5.0809, "total_long_balls": 2.1863, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7862, "total_own_half_passes": 16.1913, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.7912, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9018, "crosses_total": 0.9812, "crosses_accurate": 0.7448, "touches": 53.2992, "possession_lost": 10.6717, "dispossessed": 0.3245, "duels_lost": 5.1908, "aerial_lost": 1.6833, "total_contest": 2.8194, "won_contest": 1.062, "ball_recovery": 3.9727, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.3713, "fouls_drawn": 0.8797, "blocks": 0.4337, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.228, "assist_rate": 0.228, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0953, "total_progression": 68.7416, "progressive_carries": 1.4607, "key_pass": 0.469, "shots_off_target": 0.3383 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4255, "after": 1.3713 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.0207, "after": 0.9812 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.909, "after": 0.8797 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4108, "after": 0.391 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4343, "after": 0.4182 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3383, "after": 0.3268 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.2345, "after": 0.228 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.24)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3183, "tackles": 0.5184, "tackles_won": 0.3404, "clearances": 0.8292, "aerial_won": 0.3664, "total_shots": 0.2754, "rating": 6.7398, "minutes": 14.65, "total_pass": 25.0012, "accurate_pass": 20.9135, "duels_won": 4.1357, "total_long_balls": 1.7796, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6399, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0397, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8738, "crosses_total": 0.7987, "crosses_accurate": 0.6063, "touches": 43.3843, "possession_lost": 8.6865, "dispossessed": 0.3245, "duels_lost": 4.2252, "aerial_lost": 1.6833, "total_contest": 2.2949, "won_contest": 0.8644, "ball_recovery": 3.2337, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1162, "fouls_drawn": 0.7161, "blocks": 0.353, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1856, "assist_rate": 0.1856, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0313, "total_progression": 55.9541, "progressive_carries": 1.189, "key_pass": 0.3818, "shots_off_target": 0.2754, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.239, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.65 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.65, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.814, "appearance_probability": 0.239 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3183, "tackles": 0.5184, "tackles_won": 0.3404, "clearances": 0.8292, "aerial_won": 0.3664, "total_shots": 0.2754, "rating": 6.7398, "minutes": 14.65, "total_pass": 25.0012, "accurate_pass": 20.9135, "duels_won": 4.1357, "total_long_balls": 1.7796, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6399, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0397, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8738, "crosses_total": 0.7987, "crosses_accurate": 0.6063, "touches": 43.3843, "possession_lost": 8.6865, "dispossessed": 0.3245, "duels_lost": 4.2252, "aerial_lost": 1.6833, "total_contest": 2.2949, "won_contest": 0.8644, "ball_recovery": 3.2337, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1162, "fouls_drawn": 0.7161, "blocks": 0.353, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1856, "assist_rate": 0.1856, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0313, "total_progression": 55.9541, "progressive_carries": 1.189, "key_pass": 0.3818, "shots_off_target": 0.2754, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.239, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.65 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3183, "tackles": 0.5184, "tackles_won": 0.3404, "clearances": 0.8292, "aerial_won": 0.3664, "total_shots": 0.2754, "rating": 6.7398, "minutes": 14.65, "total_pass": 25.0012, "accurate_pass": 20.9135, "duels_won": 4.1357, "total_long_balls": 1.7796, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6399, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0397, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8738, "crosses_total": 0.7987, "crosses_accurate": 0.6063, "touches": 43.3843, "possession_lost": 8.6865, "dispossessed": 0.3245, "duels_lost": 4.2252, "aerial_lost": 1.6833, "total_contest": 2.2949, "won_contest": 0.8644, "ball_recovery": 3.2337, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1162, "fouls_drawn": 0.7161, "blocks": 0.353, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1856, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0313, "total_progression": 55.9541, "progressive_carries": 1.189, "key_pass": 0.3818, "shots_off_target": 0.2754, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.239, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.65, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.239, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3183, "tackles": 0.5184, "tackles_won": 0.3404, "clearances": 0.8292, "aerial_won": 0.3664, "total_shots": 0.2754, "rating": 6.7398, "minutes": 14.65, "total_pass": 25.0012, "accurate_pass": 20.9135, "duels_won": 4.1357, "total_long_balls": 1.7796, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6399, "total_own_half_passes": 13.1794, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0397, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8218, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.8738, "crosses_total": 0.7987, "crosses_accurate": 0.6063, "touches": 43.3843, "possession_lost": 8.6865, "dispossessed": 0.3245, "duels_lost": 4.2252, "aerial_lost": 1.6833, "total_contest": 2.2949, "won_contest": 0.8644, "ball_recovery": 3.2337, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1162, "fouls_drawn": 0.7161, "blocks": 0.353, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1856, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0298, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0313, "total_progression": 55.9541, "progressive_carries": 1.189, "key_pass": 0.3818, "shots_off_target": 0.2754, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.239, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.65, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3193, "fifa_rank": 2015.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } } ] }, "Aladji Bamba": { "player_id": 1868591, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 194, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 1, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0183, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1967, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363868, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4363, "combined_rank_score": 2376.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 822.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6426, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aladji Bamba", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hugo Lloris", "ranking": 4358 }, { "player_name": "Roman Bürki", "ranking": 4359 }, { "player_name": "Andy Nájar", "ranking": 4360 }, { "player_name": "Goduine Koyalipou", "ranking": 4361 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Bamba", "ranking": 4362 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sean Steur", "ranking": 4364 }, { "player_name": "Guilherme", "ranking": 4365 }, { "player_name": "Carlos González", "ranking": 4366 }, { "player_name": "Brian White", "ranking": 4367 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Bucha", "ranking": 4368 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.439, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 3, "data_confidence": 0.439, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.71, "market_value_adjustment": 1.029, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Newcastle", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 15.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0133 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost M_service (3 historical appearances) to 18.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.71); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 15.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2059, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "assists": 0.0223, "assist_rate": 0.0223, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goals": 0.032, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.402503 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.327157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.208286 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.074465 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.065955 } ], "others_margin": -0.038183 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07451626658439636, "model_output": 0.0745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1445 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0609 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": -0.0071, "total": 0.0745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.590328 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.414352 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.222998 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.201934 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.050911 } ], "others_margin": -0.090997 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2873208522796631, "model_output": 0.2873, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3546 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2353 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0304 } ], "others": -0.0042, "total": 0.2873, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.354555 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.235254 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048228 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030511 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.030408 } ], "others_margin": -0.004188 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.642569541931152, "model_output": 6.6426, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0587 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0427 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0312 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0492, "total": 6.6426, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058667 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042705 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031213 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016093 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008438 } ], "others_margin": -0.049186 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0290, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2119, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "assists": 0.023, "assist_rate": 0.023, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goals": 0.0329, "goal_rate": 0.0329, "shots_on_target": 0.0767, "total_shots": 0.2957, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.629, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.34, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.219 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0054)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2119, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "assists": 0.0229, "assist_rate": 0.0229, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "goals": 0.0327, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.0763, "total_shots": 0.2941, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 14.27, "total_pass": 2.449, "accurate_pass": 2.109, "duels_won": 1.718, "total_long_balls": 0.34, "accurate_long_balls": 0.34, "total_own_half_passes": 1.029, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.029, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.42, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.08, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.565, "possession_lost": 1.598, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.309, "aerial_won": 0.689, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6299, "tackles": 1.029, "clearances": 1.089, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.3382, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.14, "total_progression": 0.8936, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.219 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 3, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1586, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.3 to 18.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assists": 0.0297, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.53, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2985, "appearance_probability": 0.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assists": 0.0297, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, 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], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1515 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0031 } ], "others": -0.0185, "total": 0.0558, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.63016 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.40898 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.224683 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.167155 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.040287 } ], "others_margin": -0.286965 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18772365152835846, "model_output": 0.1877, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3055 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2436 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.029 } ], "others": -0.1506, "total": 0.1877, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.305498 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.24362 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04161 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.032533 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029043 } ], "others_margin": -0.150437 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.760957717895508, "model_output": 6.761, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.098 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0319 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0213 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0181 } ], "others": -0.0189, "total": 6.761, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.097974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036541 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.0319 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021301 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018099 } ], "others_margin": -0.01898 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.5266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4057, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8426, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2597, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7672, "possession_lost": 2.4134, "dispossessed": 0.3966, "duels_lost": 1.0839, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3966, "interceptions": 0.2766, "tackles_won": 0.5534, "tackles": 0.5631, "clearances": 1.1311, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.2766, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7004, "total_progression": 28.9601, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2593, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "assist_rate": 0.0256, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0097, "goal_rate": 0.0192, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0397, "total_shots": 0.1353, "rating": 6.761, "minutes": 21.25, "total_pass": 19.6654, "accurate_pass": 17.8151, "duels_won": 0.5631, "total_long_balls": 1.5266, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4057, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8426, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.2597, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.7672, "possession_lost": 2.4134, "dispossessed": 0.3966, "duels_lost": 1.0839, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.3966, "interceptions": 0.2766, "tackles_won": 0.5534, "tackles": 0.5631, "clearances": 1.1311, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.2766, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2815, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7004, "total_progression": 28.9601, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0955, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.25, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.516, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2552 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": 0.0058, "total": 0.3458, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.475947 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.061967 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061306 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.04197 } ], "others_margin": 0.016986 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.653625011444092, "model_output": 6.6536, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 6.6536, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.048784 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012697 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.010869 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009683 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009094 } ], "others_margin": -0.01741 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.2379, "total_shots": 0.6019, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3504, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.7265, "assists": 0.1893, "assist_rate": 0.1893, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1504, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1893, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.364 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.0705, "shots_on_target": 0.2376, "total_shots": 0.6023, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3504, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2526, "fouls_drawn": 0.728, "assists": 0.1902, "assist_rate": 0.1902, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.364 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2053, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.5 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goals": 0.0882, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.049, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.12, "projection_minutes": 18.48, "minutes_scale": 1.2511, "appearance_probability": 0.752 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goals": 0.0882, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.049, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.049, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.752 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0986, "after": 0.0923 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.049, "after": 0.0578 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 905, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0869, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "scorer_weight": 0.0858, "squad_weight_total": 1.813, "weight_share": 0.0473, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "appearance_weight": 0.752, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "William Osula", "weight": 0.528, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.528, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, 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"expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0625 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": -0.0444, "total": 6.6546, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.062534 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.020435 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.020425 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.015317 } ], "others_margin": -0.044248 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0585, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0826, "goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.2398, "total_shots": 0.6581, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.3404, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 18.44, "total_pass": 5.2555, "accurate_pass": 3.8472, "duels_won": 1.8105, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7979, "crosses_total": 1.0493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3497, "touches": 13.1032, "possession_lost": 6.3346, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 3.8678, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 2.2836, "won_contest": 0.6995, "ball_recovery": 1.111, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.3497, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1872, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 5.6669, "total_progression": 12.427, "progressive_carries": 1.0493, "shots_off_target": 0.4183 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0585, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 12.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.61, "projection_minutes": 18.44, "minutes_scale": 0.6838, "appearance_probability": 0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.75 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1307, "fifa_rank": 1081.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "scorer_weight": 0.0496, "squad_weight_total": 1.813, "weight_share": 0.0274, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "William Osula", "weight": 0.528, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.528, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, 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"assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.017, "squad_weight_total": 1.1691, "weight_share": 0.0145, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2254, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1787 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Nick Woltemade": { "player_id": 980623, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 198, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 6, 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recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.850)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.2379, "total_shots": 0.6019, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3504, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2529, "fouls_drawn": 0.7265, "assists": 0.1893, "assist_rate": 0.1893, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1504, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1893, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.364 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 59000000, "quality_factor": 0.8503, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0788, "goals": 0.0705, "goal_rate": 0.0705, "shots_on_target": 0.2376, "total_shots": 0.6023, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3504, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 18.48, "total_pass": 4.5255, "accurate_pass": 3.4513, "duels_won": 1.7403, "total_long_balls": 0.084, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.846, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.121, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.7405, "possession_lost": 2.1885, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 1.7965, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.6234, "won_contest": 0.2733, "ball_recovery": 0.6323, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.2526, "fouls_drawn": 0.728, "assists": 0.1902, "assist_rate": 0.1902, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1502, "tackles": 0.1504, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0713, "big_chances_created": 0.3501, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.566, "total_progression": 5.9238, "progressive_carries": 0.2519, "shots_off_target": 0.364 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2053, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Newcastle" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.5 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goals": 0.0882, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.049, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.12, "projection_minutes": 18.48, "minutes_scale": 1.2511, "appearance_probability": 0.752 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goals": 0.0882, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.049, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assists": 0.238, "assist_rate": 0.238, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.049, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.752 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0986, "after": 0.0923 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.049, "after": 0.0578 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 905, "fifa_rank": 690.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0869, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "scorer_weight": 0.0858, "squad_weight_total": 1.813, "weight_share": 0.0473, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "appearance_weight": 0.752, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "William Osula", "weight": 0.528, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.528, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0923, "goal_rate": 0.0882, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2973, "total_shots": 0.7535, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "key_pass": 0.4384, "rating": 6.6536, "minutes": 23.12, "total_pass": 5.6618, "accurate_pass": 4.3179, "duels_won": 2.1773, "total_long_balls": 0.1051, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5606, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6535, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.684, "possession_lost": 2.738, "dispossessed": 0.4167, "duels_lost": 2.2476, "aerial_lost": 0.7053, "total_contest": 0.7799, "won_contest": 0.3419, "ball_recovery": 0.7911, "challenges_lost": 0.0713, "fouls": 0.316, "fouls_drawn": 0.9108, "assist_rate": 0.238, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1879, "tackles": 0.1882, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0892, "big_chances_created": 0.438, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.1902, "ball_carries": 1.9592, "total_progression": 7.4112, "progressive_carries": 0.3151, "shots_off_target": 0.4554, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.752, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.12, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0869, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0556, "finishing_factor": 0.93, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0556, "assist_rate": 0.238, "provider_weight": 0.0722, "squad_weight_total": 1.1691, "weight_share": 0.0618, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.752, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2254, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1787 } ] } } ] }, "Bazoumana Touré": { "player_id": 1568123, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 175, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0585, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0826, "goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.2398, "total_shots": 0.6581, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.3404, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 18.44, "total_pass": 5.2555, "accurate_pass": 3.8472, "duels_won": 1.8105, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7979, "crosses_total": 1.0493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3497, "touches": 13.1032, "possession_lost": 6.3346, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 3.8678, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 2.2836, "won_contest": 0.6995, "ball_recovery": 1.111, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.3497, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4114, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1872, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 5.6669, "total_progression": 12.427, "progressive_carries": 1.0493, "shots_off_target": 0.4183 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0585, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 12.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.75)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.61, "projection_minutes": 18.44, "minutes_scale": 0.6838, "appearance_probability": 0.75 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0503, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.018, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.128, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.75 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1307, "fifa_rank": 1081.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "scorer_weight": 0.0496, "squad_weight_total": 1.813, "weight_share": 0.0274, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "William Osula", "weight": 0.528, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.528, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.164, "total_shots": 0.4501, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "key_pass": 0.2328, "rating": 6.6546, "minutes": 12.61, "total_pass": 3.5939, "accurate_pass": 2.6309, "duels_won": 1.2381, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.595, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9133, "crosses_total": 0.7176, "crosses_accurate": 0.2391, "touches": 8.9605, "possession_lost": 4.3318, "dispossessed": 0.823, "duels_lost": 2.645, "aerial_lost": 0.3497, "total_contest": 1.5616, "won_contest": 0.4783, "ball_recovery": 0.7597, "challenges_lost": 0.7612, "fouls": 0.2391, "fouls_drawn": 0.2391, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.2813, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1195, "offsides": 1.111, "ball_carries": 3.8752, "total_progression": 8.4981, "progressive_carries": 0.7176, "shots_off_target": 0.2861, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.75, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.61, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0509, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "finishing_factor": 0.9418, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0209, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.017, "squad_weight_total": 1.1691, "weight_share": 0.0145, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.75, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2254, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1787 } ] } } ] }, "Aladji Bamba": { "player_id": 1868591, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 194, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 19, 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"away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Newcastle United", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 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"ranking": 4361 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Bamba", "ranking": 4362 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sean Steur", "ranking": 4364 }, { "player_name": "Guilherme", "ranking": 4365 }, { "player_name": "Carlos González", "ranking": 4366 }, { "player_name": "Brian White", "ranking": 4367 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Bucha", "ranking": 4368 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.439, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058667 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042705 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031213 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016093 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008438 } ], "others_margin": -0.049186 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.53, "projection_minutes": 14.27, "minutes_scale": 1.2985, "appearance_probability": 0.71 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assists": 0.0297, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0197, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.69 (squad xG sum 1.3547, xG scale 1.2445, xA scale 1.5693, team xA 1.10 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1967 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.686, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3547, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6983, "team_expected_assists": 1.0959, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2445, "xa_scale": 1.5693, "opponent_lambda": 1.602, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.71 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1967, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4363, "fifa_rank": 3930.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1967, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0172, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "scorer_weight": 0.0217, "squad_weight_total": 1.813, "weight_share": 0.012, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.71, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "William Osula", "weight": 0.528, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.528, "runner_up": "Yoane Wissa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3271 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Yoane Wissa", "weight": 0.3271, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3271, "runner_up": "Harvey Barnes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2467 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2752, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 18.53, "total_pass": 3.1801, "accurate_pass": 2.7386, "duels_won": 2.2309, "total_long_balls": 0.4415, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3362, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.8439, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4024, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.5248, "possession_lost": 2.075, "dispossessed": 0.34, "duels_lost": 1.6998, "aerial_won": 0.8947, "aerial_lost": 0.289, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8179, "tackles": 1.3362, "clearances": 1.4141, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.34, "fouls": 0.4392, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.4803, "total_progression": 1.1604, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2844, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.71, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.53, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 3.092, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0183, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1967, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0183, "assist_rate": 0.0297, "provider_weight": 0.0221, "squad_weight_total": 1.1691, "weight_share": 0.0189, "creation_factor": 1.1967, "appearance_weight": 0.71, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Harvey Barnes", "weight": 0.2254, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2254, "runner_up": "Lewis Hall", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1787 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.69, "expected_assists": 1.1, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 405, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.774, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2918, "xg_multiplier": 0.9132, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Philippe Mateta (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.292 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ismaïla Sarr", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Nico González", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.788, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "xg_contribution": 0.3411, "xg_multiplier": 0.9508, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico González", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismaïla Sarr (SS) is evenly matched against Nico González and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.341 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yéremy Pino", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Nico González", "Sven Botman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.788, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1126, "xg_multiplier": 0.8219, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico González", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Sven Botman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yéremy Pino (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Nico González and Sven Botman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €44M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.113 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyrick Mitchell", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Lukáš Horníček" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0773, "xg_multiplier": 0.8664, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lukáš Horníček", "role": "GK", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrick Mitchell (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Lukáš Horníček in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Lewis Hall" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.831, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "xg_contribution": 0.0586, "xg_multiplier": 0.8309, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lewis Hall", "role": "LB", "market_value": 52000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Lewis Hall in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €52M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Nico González" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.447, "xg_contribution": 0.0736, "xg_multiplier": 0.9949, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico González", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.553 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is evenly matched against Nico González in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €54M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Anan Khalaili", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Nico González" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.362, "xg_contribution": 0.0913, "xg_multiplier": 0.8709, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico González", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.638 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anan Khalaili (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Nico González in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €54M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joelinton", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Axel Disasi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.0794, "xg_multiplier": 0.9786, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Axel Disasi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joelinton (LW) is evenly matched against Axel Disasi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "William Osula", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.631, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.217, "xg_contribution": 0.3393, "xg_multiplier": 1.0254, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Axel Disasi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.783 } ], "duel_analysis": "William Osula (ST) is evenly matched against Axel Disasi and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.339 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yoane Wissa", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.631, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.267, "xg_multiplier": 0.9038, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Axel Disasi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yoane Wissa (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Axel Disasi and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.267 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Harvey Barnes", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.631, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "xg_contribution": 0.1586, "xg_multiplier": 1.0062, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Axel Disasi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harvey Barnes (ST) is evenly matched against Axel Disasi and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €20M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 60000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.853, "defenders": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.631, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "xg_contribution": 0.1384, "xg_multiplier": 1.0727, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Axel Disasi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matías Fernández-Pardo (ST) is slightly favored against Axel Disasi and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€60M vs €20M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.709, "away_midfield_power": 0.737, "home_creative_power": 0.73, "away_creative_power": 0.626, "home_defensive_power": 0.658, "away_defensive_power": 0.626, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.49, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Tyrick Mitchell", "Daichi Kamada", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Joelinton", "Nico González", "Lewis Miley" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Adam Wharton vs Nico González", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.003, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.0 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.602, "away_lambda": 1.686, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jean-Philippe Mateta": { "opponents": [ "Sven Botman", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Nico González", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yéremy Pino": { "opponents": [ "Nico González", "Sven Botman" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Lukáš Horníček", "Joelinton" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Lewis Hall", "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Nico González" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Nico González", "Lewis Miley" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Axel Disasi": { "opponents": [ "Joelinton", "William Osula", "Yoane Wissa", "Harvey Barnes", "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "William Osula", "Yoane Wissa", "Harvey Barnes", "Matías Fernández-Pardo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Walter Benítez": { "opponents": [ "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "Harvey Barnes" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "William Osula" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sven Botman": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "Ismaïla Sarr", "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico González": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr", "Yéremy Pino", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili", "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lukáš Horníček": { "opponents": [ "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Hall": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joelinton": { "opponents": [ "Axel Disasi", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "William Osula": { "opponents": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harvey Barnes": { "opponents": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Matías Fernández-Pardo": { "opponents": [ "Axel Disasi", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewis Miley": { "opponents": [ "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Adam Wharton vs Nico González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.05, Away: 0.98. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.15, "ha_source": "default", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8889, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.944, "home_midfield_factor": 1.003, "away_midfield_factor": 1.0, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6929, "away_avg_quality": 0.758, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0652, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.225, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1671, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0848, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1103, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0607, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0353, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.0463, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.1472 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.003, "result": 1.1507 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.0931 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.15, "result": 1.2571 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0363, "result": 1.3027 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9123, "result": 1.1885 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8889, "result": 1.0564 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.2364 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2364, "result": 1.2364, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1103, "factor": 0.9647, "pre": 1.2364, "result": 1.1928 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1928 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1705, "result": 1.3635 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.3635 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3635, "result": 1.364, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.637 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.637, "result": 1.602, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.602 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.602 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.602, "result": 1.602, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.602 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9827, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0995 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0995 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.1545 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1545 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0937, "result": 1.2627 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0071, "result": 1.2716 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.944, "result": 1.2004 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.3804 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.3804, "result": 1.3804, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1103, "factor": 1.0607, "pre": 1.3804, "result": 1.4642 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4642 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1547, "result": 1.6187 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.6187 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.6187, "result": 1.619, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 1.651 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 1.651, "result": 1.6863, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.686 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.686 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.686, "result": 1.686, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": false, "reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "samples": 0, "scale": 1.0, "observed_total_goals": 0.0, "result": 1.686 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1705, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1547, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.602, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.686, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3635, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6187, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.602, "final_away_lambda": 1.686 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0363, "attack_index": 1.011, "defense_concede_index": 1.083, "form_multiplier": 0.995, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.47, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.57, "team_ppg": 1.16, "opponent_ppg": 1.24 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0937, "attack_index": 0.945, "defense_concede_index": 1.318, "form_multiplier": 1.005, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.37, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.91, "team_ppg": 1.24, "opponent_ppg": 1.16 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.364, Away 1.619). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.602, Away 1.686 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.602, "away_lambda": 1.686, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.364, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.619 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T13:31:31Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }