{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261025", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-1-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0818, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0818, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0467, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1763, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0818 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0729 }, { "score": "2-2", "probability": 0.0625 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0616 }, { "score": "3-2", "probability": 0.0557 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0153, "0-1": 0.0225, "0-2": 0.0175, "0-3": 0.0089, "0-4": 0.0034, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0397, "1-1": 0.0616, "1-2": 0.0467, "1-3": 0.0238, "1-4": 0.0091, "1-5": 0.0028, "1-6": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0536, "2-1": 0.0818, "2-2": 0.0625, "2-3": 0.0318, "2-4": 0.0121, "2-5": 0.0037, "2-6": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.0478, "3-1": 0.0729, "3-2": 0.0557, "3-3": 0.0283, "3-4": 0.0108, "3-5": 0.0033, "3-6": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0319, "4-1": 0.0488, "4-2": 0.0372, "4-3": 0.0189, "4-4": 0.0072, "4-5": 0.0022, "4-6": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0171, "5-1": 0.0261, "5-2": 0.0199, "5-3": 0.0101, "5-4": 0.0039, "5-5": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0076, "6-1": 0.0116, "6-2": 0.0089, "6-3": 0.0045, "6-4": 0.0017, "6-5": 0.0005, "7-0": 0.0029, "7-1": 0.0044, "7-2": 0.0034, "7-3": 0.0017, "7-4": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.001, "8-1": 0.0015, "8-2": 0.0011, "8-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6194, "draw": 0.1763, "away_win": 0.2043 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7898, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2102, "btts_yes": 0.7291, "btts_no": 0.2709, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2172, "away_clean_sheet": 0.069 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.02, "MCR": 7.29, "ATR": 7.73, "GK": 7.08 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.89, "MCR": 7.05, "ATR": 7.39, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Barcelona 7W-0D-3L vs Real Madrid over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pedri vs Jude Bellingham will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.73, Away: 1.19. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.78, "home_lambda": 2.674, "away_lambda": 1.527, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 7, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0286, "away_multiplier": 0.9714 }, "modal_scoreline": "2-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0818, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6194, "draw": 0.1763, "away_win": 0.2043 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6194, "fair_spread": 1.147, "fair_total": 4.201, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 2.674, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.527, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7898, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.7291, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2172, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.069, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.7522, "probability": 0.5287, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.6765, "probability": 0.4916, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.3076, "probability": 0.2648, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.199, "probability": 0.1805, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.201, "expected_total_shots": 36, "expected_total_passes": 1188, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.5, "possession_away_pct": 50.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6194, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.15 goals and fair total 4.20.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Madrid must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Raphinha, Lamine Yamal; bench watchlist: Dani Olmo, Karim Adeyemi, Gabriel Jesus.", "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé; bench watchlist: Arda Güler, Rodrygo, Franco Mastantuono.", "Assist usage should flow through Lamine Yamal, Yan Diomande; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 2.10 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Madrid is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Real Madrid wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Barcelona": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Raphinha": { "player_id": 831005, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 176, "market_value": 63000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5987, "goal_rate": 0.8957, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2269, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.9117, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 9.5857, "dispossessed": 0.3824, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.299, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.2057, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 59, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9291, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Cucurella, Dean Huijsen", "opponent_faced": "Marc Cucurella, Dean Huijsen", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4505, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.203, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Barcelona", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "expected_assists": 0.065, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8306, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 2.3796, "expected_assists": 0.0249, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.232, "expected_assists": 0.5508, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2971, "expected_assists": 0.0868, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 9.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2998, "expected_assists": 0.3009, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7976, "expected_assists": 0.1329, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 9.9, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 2.0042, "expected_assists": 0.3631, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 9.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3943, "expected_assists": 0.2517, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1777, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 10, "combined_rank_score": 17.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 2.0, "sofascore_rating": 9.1, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 32.0, "fifa_overall": 88.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.9117, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking": 13 }, { "player_name": "Adrián", "ranking": 14 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel", "ranking": 15 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.775, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", 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0.1153, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16041 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.12059 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.110818 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.072476 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.044555 } ], "others_margin": 0.220671 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2897026538848877, "model_output": 1.2897, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1301 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0779 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0277 } ], "others": 0.1354, "total": 1.2897, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.274809 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.136818 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073792 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02826 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024302 } ], "others_margin": 0.11099 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.890996932983398, "model_output": 6.891, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.057 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": 0.0467, "total": 6.891, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057008 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.038334 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.016688 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.013281 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.009836 } ], "others_margin": 0.046738 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0154, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3351, "goals": 0.2684, "goal_rate": 0.2684, "shots_on_target": 0.7739, "total_shots": 2.1326, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "key_pass": 1.3096, "rating": 6.891, "minutes": 77.24, "total_pass": 22.1698, "accurate_pass": 19.2154, "duels_won": 3.8622, "total_long_balls": 0.7405, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5643, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0902, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.5798, "crosses_total": 1.2496, "crosses_accurate": 0.1575, "touches": 37.3115, "possession_lost": 8.9427, "dispossessed": 1.0957, "duels_lost": 4.2264, "aerial_lost": 0.6963, "total_contest": 3.4568, "won_contest": 1.807, "ball_recovery": 1.8865, "challenges_lost": 0.5837, "fouls": 0.2026, "fouls_drawn": 1.0194, "assists": 0.2381, "assist_rate": 0.2381, "interceptions": 0.0611, 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"key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 7.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 8.378, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.777, "history_matches": 35, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.145309 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.10844 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.036806 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.028924 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.024146 } ], "others_margin": -0.066883 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.236313819885254, "model_output": 7.2363, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1302 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1079 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.3092, "expected_assists": 0.1821, "assists": 0.2003, "assist_rate": 0.2003, "expected_goals": 0.0855, "goals": 0.0938, "goal_rate": 0.0938, "shots_on_target": 0.2553, "total_shots": 1.0165, "rating": 7.2363, "minutes": 79.77, "total_pass": 69.8295, "accurate_pass": 64.6939, "duels_won": 3.4387, "total_long_balls": 3.7406, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7746, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9735, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6871, "total_opp_half_passes": 44.856, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 41.0067, "crosses_total": 1.2478, "crosses_accurate": 0.4416, "touches": 83.1546, "possession_lost": 8.7603, "dispossessed": 0.7684, "duels_lost": 3.2706, "aerial_won": 0.1272, "aerial_lost": 0.0087, "interceptions": 0.3799, "tackles_won": 0.9161, "tackles": 1.4954, "clearances": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0156, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.0729, "goal_rate": 0.0729, "shots_on_target": 0.207, "total_shots": 0.9827, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4842, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3892, "tackles_won": 1.7173, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7124, "fouls_drawn": 1.1554, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0253, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 54000000, "quality_factor": 0.837, "boost_factor": 1.0156, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0041)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9787, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3836, "tackles_won": 1.7103, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7095, "fouls_drawn": 1.1507, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0253, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0041, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9159, "prior_reliability": 0.04, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.7173, "after": 1.7103 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.3892, "after": 1.3836 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9819, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3836, "tackles_won": 1.7103, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7095, "fouls_drawn": 1.1507, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0253, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "assists": 0.0662, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9819, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3836, "tackles_won": 1.7103, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7095, "fouls_drawn": 1.1507, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0253, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757, "opponent_faced": "Yan Diomande, Aurélien Tchouaméni", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Yan Diomande, Aurélien Tchouaméni", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1041, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0957, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9819, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3836, "tackles_won": 1.7103, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7095, "fouls_drawn": 1.1507, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0253, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757, "opponent_faced": "Yan Diomande, Aurélien Tchouaméni", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 2.2996, xG scale 1.1628, xA scale 1.2424, team xA 1.74 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1293, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9819, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3836, "tackles_won": 1.7103, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7095, "fouls_drawn": 1.1507, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757, "opponent_faced": "Yan Diomande, Aurélien Tchouaméni", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8415, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.674, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 1.399, "team_expected_assists": 1.7381, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1628, "xa_scale": 1.2424, "opponent_lambda": 1.527, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0957, "after": 0.1113 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1041, "after": 0.1293 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1293, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9819, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3836, "tackles_won": 1.7103, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7095, "fouls_drawn": 1.1507, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757, "opponent_faced": "Yan Diomande, Aurélien Tchouaméni", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 50, "fifa_rank": 8.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 90.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1293, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9819, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, "possession_lost": 9.7831, "dispossessed": 0.4229, "duels_lost": 2.6445, "aerial_won": 1.7476, "aerial_lost": 0.4987, "interceptions": 1.3836, "tackles_won": 1.7103, "tackles": 2.437, "clearances": 1.985, "total_contest": 0.5842, "won_contest": 0.2917, "challenges_lost": 0.7179, "fouls": 0.7095, "fouls_drawn": 1.1507, "blocks": 0.0975, "big_chances_created": 0.3043, "big_chances_missed": 0.1575, "xgot": 0.0294, "ball_carries": 31.4985, "total_progression": 104.2886, "progressive_carries": 1.1113, "shots_off_target": 0.7757, "opponent_faced": "Yan Diomande, Aurélien Tchouaméni", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1053, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8415, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1053, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "scorer_weight": 0.0937, "squad_weight_total": 2.8912, "weight_share": 0.0324, "finishing_factor": 0.8415, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.9095, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.9095, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7484 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7484, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7484, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.031, "expected_assists": 0.1293, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1113, "goal_rate": 0.0726, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0.9819, "rating": 7.4804, "minutes": 82.43, "total_pass": 89.8853, "accurate_pass": 82.6006, "duels_won": 5.6317, "total_long_balls": 7.1507, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4749, "total_own_half_passes": 35.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.8219, "total_opp_half_passes": 54.3982, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 49.7787, "crosses_total": 0.4822, "crosses_accurate": 0.0224, "touches": 103.3053, 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0.1213, "assist_rate": 0.0662, "provider_weight": 0.1034, "squad_weight_total": 1.8872, "weight_share": 0.0548, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3845, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3845, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2836 } ] } } ] }, "João Cancelo": { "player_id": 138892, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 182, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 29, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 67, 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"margin": 0.030577 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017058 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.016532 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.01181 } ], "others_margin": -0.011963 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8298, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1428, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7703, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.4228, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9959, "fouls_drawn": 0.9209, "blocks": 0.1285, "goals": 0.3076, "goal_rate": 0.3076, "assists": 0.0749, "assist_rate": 0.0749, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1527, "shots_on_target": 0.5328, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7500000, "quality_factor": 0.4927, "boost_factor": 0.9993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.417, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.9187, "blocks": 0.1285, "goals": 0.3069, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "assists": 0.0747, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1527, "shots_on_target": 0.5315, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9251, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.4228, "after": 2.417 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.417, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.9187, "blocks": 0.1285, "goals": 0.3069, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "assists": 0.0747, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1527, "shots_on_target": 0.5315, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.417, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.9187, "blocks": 0.1285, "goals": 0.3069, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "assists": 0.0747, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1527, "shots_on_target": 0.5315, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439, "opponent_faced": "Federico Valverde", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Federico Valverde", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.417, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.9187, "blocks": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0471, "expected_assists": 0.1527, "shots_on_target": 0.5315, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1026, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439, "opponent_faced": "Federico Valverde", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 2.2996, xG scale 1.1628, xA scale 1.2424, team xA 1.74 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.417, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.9187, "blocks": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "shots_on_target": 0.5315, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1193, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439, "opponent_faced": "Federico Valverde", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.674, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 1.399, "team_expected_assists": 1.7381, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1628, "xa_scale": 1.2424, "opponent_lambda": 1.527, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0471, "after": 0.0548 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1527, "after": 0.1897 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.417, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.9187, "blocks": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "shots_on_target": 0.5315, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1193, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439, "opponent_faced": "Federico Valverde", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 472, "fifa_rank": 320.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, "accurate_pass": 41.4645, "duels_won": 4.8474, "total_long_balls": 2.8623, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7616, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8264, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2971, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.5061, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.1674, "crosses_total": 2.417, "crosses_accurate": 0.4874, "touches": 66.6765, "possession_lost": 12.0323, "dispossessed": 0.4567, "duels_lost": 4.8627, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "total_contest": 2.6551, "won_contest": 1.2343, "ball_recovery": 4.1213, "challenges_lost": 1.4348, "fouls": 0.9935, "fouls_drawn": 0.9187, "blocks": 0.1285, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0747, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0548, "expected_assists": 0.1897, "shots_on_target": 0.5315, "big_chances_created": 0.2839, "xgot": 0.1193, "ball_carries": 19.3064, "total_progression": 95.2404, "progressive_carries": 3.9397, "key_pass": 1.0314, "shots_off_target": 0.2374, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439, "opponent_faced": "Federico Valverde", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0533, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0533, "goal_rate": 0.3069, "scorer_weight": 0.0685, "squad_weight_total": 2.8912, "weight_share": 0.0237, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.9095, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.9095, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7484 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7484, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7484, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8278, "tackles": 1.7097, "tackles_won": 1.1475, "clearances": 1.9593, "aerial_won": 0.7116, "total_shots": 0.7749, "rating": 6.8702, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 47.3326, 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34.222, "clearances": 1.3557, "ball_recovery": 8.5005, "high_claims": 0.975, "punches": 0.2421, "aerial_won": 0.1885, "sweeper_actions": 1.8262, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8262, "saves_inside_box": 1.3841, "possession_lost": 3.0111, "duels_won": 0.2806, "duels_lost": 0.1328, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1401, "total_own_half_passes": 21.7431, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.5147 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:04:36.867499+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 199, "rows": 6796 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.7883, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9401, "sweeper_accuracy": 0.7604, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2087, "save_contribution": 2.0331, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.8262 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.7054872512817383, "model_output": 2.7055, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0415 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0394 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0368 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0362 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9286, "items": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1088 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0763 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0636 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.039 } ], "others": 0.0291, "total": 2.7055, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074537, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.037854 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.027421 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.023444 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.015991 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.014681 } ], "others_margin": 0.010774 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.028912298381328583, "model_output": -0.0289, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0398 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "importance": 0.0385 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0166, "items": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0412 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0214 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0187 } ], "others": 0.001, "total": -0.0289, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.062612 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.041234 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.037384 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.021363 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.018659 } ], "others_margin": 0.001002 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.080472946166992, "model_output": 7.0805, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0299 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0197 } ], "others": -0.017, "total": 7.0805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 7.009122, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040811 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.034615 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": -0.029859 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.023248 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.019657 } ], "others_margin": -0.017122 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7355, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 7.0805, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 24.2928, "accurate_pass": 21.3133, "total_long_balls": 5.2348, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4484, "touches": 34.6019, "clearances": 1.3707, "ball_recovery": 8.5949, "high_claims": 0.9858, "punches": 0.2448, "aerial_won": 0.1906, "sweeper_actions": 1.8465, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8465, "saves_inside_box": 1.3995, "possession_lost": 3.0445, "duels_won": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 0.1343, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1417, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7424 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0111, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0159)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7167, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 7.0805, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 24.2928, "accurate_pass": 21.3133, "total_long_balls": 5.2348, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4484, "touches": 34.6019, "clearances": 1.3707, "ball_recovery": 8.5949, "high_claims": 0.9858, "punches": 0.2448, "aerial_won": 0.1906, "sweeper_actions": 1.8465, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8465, "saves_inside_box": 1.3995, "possession_lost": 3.0445, "duels_won": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 0.1343, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1395, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7424 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0159, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9288, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.7355, "after": 2.7167 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7167, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 7.0805, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 24.2928, "accurate_pass": 21.3133, "total_long_balls": 5.2348, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4484, "touches": 34.6019, "clearances": 1.3707, "ball_recovery": 8.5949, "high_claims": 0.9858, "punches": 0.2448, "aerial_won": 0.1906, "sweeper_actions": 1.8465, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8465, "saves_inside_box": 1.3995, "possession_lost": 3.0445, "duels_won": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 0.1343, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1395, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7424 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7167, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 7.0805, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 24.2928, "accurate_pass": 21.3133, "total_long_balls": 5.2348, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4484, "touches": 34.6019, "clearances": 1.3707, "ball_recovery": 8.5949, "high_claims": 0.9858, "punches": 0.2448, "aerial_won": 0.1906, "sweeper_actions": 1.8465, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8465, "saves_inside_box": 1.3995, "possession_lost": 3.0445, "duels_won": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 0.1343, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1395, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8402, "shots_faced": 17.5, "expected_saves": 4.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.47, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.8402 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7167, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 7.0805, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 24.2928, "accurate_pass": 21.3133, "total_long_balls": 5.2348, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4484, "touches": 34.6019, "clearances": 1.3707, "ball_recovery": 8.5949, "high_claims": 0.9858, "punches": 0.2448, "aerial_won": 0.1906, "sweeper_actions": 1.8465, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8465, "saves_inside_box": 1.3995, "possession_lost": 3.0445, "duels_won": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 0.1343, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1395, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8402, "shots_faced": 17.5, "expected_saves": 4.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.47, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 2.2996, xG scale 1.1628, xA scale 1.2424, team xA 1.74 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7167, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 7.0805, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 24.2928, "accurate_pass": 21.3133, "total_long_balls": 5.2348, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4484, "touches": 34.6019, "clearances": 1.3707, "ball_recovery": 8.5949, "high_claims": 0.9858, "punches": 0.2448, "aerial_won": 0.1906, "sweeper_actions": 1.8465, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8465, "saves_inside_box": 1.3995, "possession_lost": 3.0445, "duels_won": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 0.1343, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1395, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8402, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.674, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 1.399, "team_expected_assists": 1.7381, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1628, "xa_scale": 1.2424, "opponent_lambda": 1.527, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 17.5, "after": 14.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.28, "after": 3.55 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.47, "after": 1.22 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 86.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7167, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 7.0805, "minutes": 83.59, "total_pass": 24.2928, "accurate_pass": 21.3133, "total_long_balls": 5.2348, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4484, "touches": 34.6019, "clearances": 1.3707, "ball_recovery": 8.5949, "high_claims": 0.9858, "punches": 0.2448, "aerial_won": 0.1906, "sweeper_actions": 1.8465, "sweeper_accurate": 1.8465, "saves_inside_box": 1.3995, "possession_lost": 3.0445, "duels_won": 0.2837, "duels_lost": 0.1343, "total_contest": 0.0011, "won_contest": 0.0011, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1395, "total_own_half_passes": 21.9844, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7424, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8402, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0646 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0197, "total": 0.6793, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064551 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.063054 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.028745 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.016546 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.015634 } ], "others_margin": 0.019634 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.863891124725342, "model_output": 6.8639, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0194, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9864, "tackles": 2.4293, "tackles_won": 1.3588, "clearances": 2.5247, "aerial_won": 0.9738, "total_shots": 0.6925, "rating": 6.8639, "minutes": 88.19, "total_pass": 50.8587, "accurate_pass": 44.3266, "duels_won": 7.3292, "total_long_balls": 2.8629, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0875, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.8655, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9129, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4611, "crosses_total": 0.6563, "crosses_accurate": 0.1508, "touches": 76.7888, "possession_lost": 11.126, "dispossessed": 0.5042, "duels_lost": 3.9363, "aerial_lost": 0.8232, "total_contest": 1.6979, "won_contest": 1.0869, "ball_recovery": 5.2889, "challenges_lost": 0.6232, "fouls": 1.5835, "fouls_drawn": 0.9951, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.2455, 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22.8655, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.9129, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4611, "crosses_total": 0.6865, "crosses_accurate": 0.1508, "touches": 76.7888, "possession_lost": 11.126, "dispossessed": 0.5042, "duels_lost": 3.9363, "aerial_lost": 0.8232, "total_contest": 1.6979, "won_contest": 1.0869, "ball_recovery": 5.2889, "challenges_lost": 0.6232, "fouls": 1.5555, "fouls_drawn": 0.9641, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.3216, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0296, "expected_assists": 0.069, "shots_on_target": 0.3928, "big_chances_created": 0.4563, "xgot": 0.1545, "ball_carries": 17.0215, "total_progression": 63.7968, "progressive_carries": 1.3828, "key_pass": 0.6337, "shots_off_target": 0.2962, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525, "opponent_faced": "Eduardo Camavinga", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping 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"match_date": "2026-10-10 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8137, "expected_assists": 0.0953, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 87, "accurate_pass": 82, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 82, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083245, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.1141, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 82, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 540, "combined_rank_score": 301.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 444.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9033, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 159.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8989, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jules Koundé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Evan Ndicka", "ranking": 535 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Lima", "ranking": 536 }, { "player_name": "Eder Aller", "ranking": 537 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Leão", "ranking": 538 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zaccagni", "ranking": 539 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rafa Romero", "ranking": 541 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Odilov", "ranking": 542 }, { "player_name": "Hyeok-chan Son", "ranking": 543 }, { "player_name": "Min-ho Yoon", "ranking": 544 }, { "player_name": "Akmal Muzaffarov", "ranking": 545 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 34, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 12.91, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.508, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0137, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 11.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (34 historical appearances) to 12.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 11.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3011, "tackles": 0.5945, "tackles_won": 0.409, "clearances": 0.8297, "aerial_won": 0.3403, "total_shots": 0.1158, "rating": 6.8989, "minutes": 27.47, "total_pass": 32.9886, "accurate_pass": 30.8332, "duels_won": 1.8383, "total_long_balls": 1.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8142, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7586, "crosses_total": 0.2844, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9367, "possession_lost": 3.4705, "dispossessed": 0.2971, "duels_lost": 0.7602, "aerial_lost": 0.1952, "total_contest": 0.481, "won_contest": 0.3151, "ball_recovery": 1.7088, "challenges_lost": 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"history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2233 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0651 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0334, "total": 0.1158, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.223287 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065143 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.013892 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.01146 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008125 } ], "others_margin": -0.033387 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8989434242248535, "model_output": 6.8989, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0076, "total": 6.8989, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060058 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.046076 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.043143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.021597 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.021466 } ], "others_margin": 0.007756 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.504644 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.124144 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.119865 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.083857 } ], "others_margin": -0.207127 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.19640396535396576, "model_output": 0.1964, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0559 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0197 } ], "others": -0.0241, "total": 0.1964, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.222581 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.055875 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.025116 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022483 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019721 } ], "others_margin": -0.024151 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.741281509399414, "model_output": 6.7413, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0263 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0402, "total": 6.7413, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.051735 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027486 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.02626 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.013642 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.012139 } ], "others_margin": -0.040335 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0067, "expected_assists": 0.0274, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2093, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6635, "total_progression": 33.7685, "progressive_carries": 1.1259, "key_pass": 0.3021, "shots_off_target": 0.1993 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.9 to 15.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.37)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.17, "tackles": 0.4526, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.3755, "aerial_won": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.1212, "rating": 6.7413, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 10.5788, "accurate_pass": 9.1938, "duels_won": 1.2008, "total_long_balls": 0.1082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4759, 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shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.17, "tackles": 0.4526, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.3755, "aerial_won": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.1212, "rating": 6.7413, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 10.5788, "accurate_pass": 9.1938, "duels_won": 1.2008, "total_long_balls": 0.1082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7178, "crosses_total": 0.0565, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.97, "possession_lost": 2.4379, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 0.66, "aerial_lost": 0.0671, "total_contest": 0.5404, "won_contest": 0.1144, "ball_recovery": 0.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0888, "fouls_drawn": 0.5621, "blocks": 0.0408, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1273, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0537, 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0.5404, "won_contest": 0.1144, "ball_recovery": 0.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0888, "fouls_drawn": 0.5621, "blocks": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1273, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.0537, "total_progression": 20.5429, "progressive_carries": 0.6849, "key_pass": 0.1838, "shots_off_target": 0.1212, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.371, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.17, "tackles": 0.4526, "tackles_won": 0.3103, "clearances": 0.3755, "aerial_won": 0.12, "total_shots": 0.1212, "rating": 6.7413, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 10.5788, "accurate_pass": 9.1938, "duels_won": 1.2008, "total_long_balls": 0.1082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.9493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4759, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7178, "crosses_total": 0.0565, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.97, "possession_lost": 2.4379, "dispossessed": 0.1717, "duels_lost": 0.66, "aerial_lost": 0.0671, "total_contest": 0.5404, "won_contest": 0.1144, "ball_recovery": 0.8724, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0888, "fouls_drawn": 0.5621, "blocks": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0041, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"player_id": 855833, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0312, "assist_rate": 0.0528, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1053, "goal_rate": 0.0749, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6252, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1126, 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"ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC 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"accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC 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0.0379, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083662, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0096, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { 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0.4696, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.076, "ball_carries": 6.3628, "total_progression": 16.4682, "progressive_carries": 0.2547, "shots_off_target": 0.5579 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-25T10:06:15.820149+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1318, "players": 892, "rows": 23283 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 8.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 24.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 27.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 1.4674, "creative_index": 0.8177, "expectedGoals": 0.1213, "expectedAssists": 0.2307, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2976 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.1108057498931885, "model_output": 1.1108, "scale": "count per 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"creative_index", "margin": 0.047369 } ], "others_margin": 0.272907 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.17364907264709473, "model_output": 0.1736, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": 0.0523, "total": 0.1736, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.169291 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.14671 }, { "name": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.546981 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.135648 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.126234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.08398 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.054509 } ], "others_margin": -0.174678 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.05521314591169357, "model_output": 0.0552, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": -0.0066 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0054 } ], "others": -0.0052, "total": 0.0552, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529484 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.158825 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.103396 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.100218 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.093642 } ], "others_margin": -0.089509 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.22843042016029358, "model_output": 0.2284, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.139 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0447 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 0.2284, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.560528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.216336 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.09693 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056595 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.041209 } ], "others_margin": -0.117609 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7863337993621826, "model_output": 0.7863, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.535 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2314 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0728 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0332 } ], "others": -0.0468, "total": 0.7863, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535004 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.231373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.072829 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040156 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033189 } ], "others_margin": -0.046674 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.001262664794922, "model_output": 7.0013, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0698, "total": 7.0013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.111852 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.109871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03852 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.023232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022886 } ], "others_margin": 0.069736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1756, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.231, "total_shots": 0.7953, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3382, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles_won": 0.1238, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0204, "fouls_drawn": 0.9549, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1745, "assist_rate": 0.1745, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.2307, "total_shots": 0.795, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3396, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.1992, "tackles_won": 0.123, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0203, "fouls_drawn": 0.9513, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.244, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assists": 0.2024, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 21.96, "minutes_scale": 1.1598, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assists": 0.2024, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3085 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 0.4213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.611961 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.081399 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.065034 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060558 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053071 } ], "others_margin": 0.012026 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.996122360229492, "model_output": 6.9961, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0912 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0899 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0431 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0278 } ], "others": 0.1151, "total": 6.9961, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091159 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.08987 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.049214 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.04308 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.027845 } ], "others_margin": 0.115111 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0351, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1907, "goals": 0.1424, "goal_rate": 0.1424, "shots_on_target": 0.5406, "total_shots": 0.9354, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.436, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 8.4811, "accurate_pass": 7.484, "duels_won": 2.2479, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7074, "crosses_total": 0.662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.8259, "possession_lost": 3.6611, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.8686, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9548, "won_contest": 0.9197, "ball_recovery": 0.8637, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1457, "fouls_drawn": 0.6824, "assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1714, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.2372, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5962, "xgot": 0.4707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1475, "total_progression": 22.8981, "progressive_carries": 1.9344, "shots_off_target": 0.3948 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0351, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0181)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1907, "goals": 0.1435, "goal_rate": 0.1435, "shots_on_target": 0.542, "total_shots": 0.9297, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.436, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 8.4811, "accurate_pass": 7.484, "duels_won": 2.2479, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7074, "crosses_total": 0.6537, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 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"importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2532 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": 0.0198, "total": 0.3941, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072148 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067873 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.056549 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.033607 } ], "others_margin": 0.051663 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6815972328186035, "model_output": 6.6816, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0585 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0192, "total": 6.6816, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05855 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018585 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.016489 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012758 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012013 } ], "others_margin": -0.019173 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0069, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "shots_on_target": 0.2993, "total_shots": 0.739, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.3968, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 18.24, "total_pass": 6.2312, "accurate_pass": 5.0117, "duels_won": 1.449, "total_long_balls": 0.1606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1216, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7799, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5752, "possession_lost": 3.5948, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 2.4142, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.1039, "won_contest": 0.5781, "ball_recovery": 0.5899, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.3679, "fouls_drawn": 0.024, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2171, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2765, "clearances": 0.0593, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1882, "xgot": 0.1541, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 3.1344, "total_progression": 3.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.2892, "shots_off_target": 0.4397 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.0069, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.2193, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "projection_minutes": 18.24, "minutes_scale": 1.4234, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.2193, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.2193, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 2.2996, xG scale 1.1628, xA scale 1.2424, team xA 1.74 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.674, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 1.399, "team_expected_assists": 1.7381, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1628, "xa_scale": 1.2424, "opponent_lambda": 1.527, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.589 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1354, "after": 0.0927 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0457, "after": 0.0334 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "scorer_weight": 0.1144, "squad_weight_total": 2.8912, "weight_share": 0.0396, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.9095, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.9095, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7484 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7484, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7484, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0325, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0325, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0267, "squad_weight_total": 1.8872, "weight_share": 0.0142, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3845, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3845, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2836 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Karim Adeyemi": { "player_id": 940054, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 180, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1427, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.9961, 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"substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "finishing_factor": 0.8023, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17 16:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Barcelona", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 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0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3085 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.031 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.025 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 0.4213, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.611961 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.081399 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.065034 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060558 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.053071 } ], "others_margin": 0.012026 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.996122360229492, "model_output": 6.9961, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0351, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1907, "goals": 0.1424, "goal_rate": 0.1424, "shots_on_target": 0.5406, "total_shots": 0.9354, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.436, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 8.4811, "accurate_pass": 7.484, "duels_won": 2.2479, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7074, "crosses_total": 0.662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.8259, "possession_lost": 3.6611, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.8686, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9548, "won_contest": 0.9197, "ball_recovery": 0.8637, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1457, "fouls_drawn": 0.6824, "assists": 0.1714, "assist_rate": 0.1714, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.2372, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5962, "xgot": 0.4707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1475, "total_progression": 22.8981, "progressive_carries": 1.9344, "shots_off_target": 0.3948 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0351, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0181)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1907, "goals": 0.1435, "goal_rate": 0.1435, "shots_on_target": 0.542, "total_shots": 0.9297, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0.436, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 18.42, "total_pass": 8.4811, "accurate_pass": 7.484, "duels_won": 2.2479, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4255, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7074, "crosses_total": 0.6537, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.8259, "possession_lost": 3.6611, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.8686, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9548, "won_contest": 0.9197, "ball_recovery": 0.8637, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1468, "fouls_drawn": 0.6775, "assists": 0.172, "assist_rate": 0.172, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4745, "clearances": 0.2372, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.5962, "xgot": 0.4707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1475, "total_progression": 22.8981, "progressive_carries": 1.9344, "shots_off_target": 0.3948 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0181, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2047, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.662, "after": 0.6537 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9354, "after": 0.9297 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 19.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1983, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.5635, "total_shots": 0.9739, "expected_assists": 0.0544, "key_pass": 0.4533, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.8172, "accurate_pass": 7.7806, "duels_won": 2.337, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.894, "crosses_total": 0.6796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4531, "possession_lost": 3.8062, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.9427, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0323, "won_contest": 0.9561, "ball_recovery": 0.8979, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "assists": 0.1788, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4933, "clearances": 0.2466, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6198, "xgot": 0.4894, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4704, "total_progression": 23.8056, "progressive_carries": 2.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.4104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.15, "projection_minutes": 18.42, "minutes_scale": 1.0396, "appearance_probability": 0.619 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1983, "goals": 0.1492, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "shots_on_target": 0.5635, "total_shots": 0.9739, "expected_assists": 0.0544, "key_pass": 0.4533, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.8172, "accurate_pass": 7.7806, "duels_won": 2.337, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.894, "crosses_total": 0.6796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4531, "possession_lost": 3.8062, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.9427, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0323, "won_contest": 0.9561, "ball_recovery": 0.8979, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "assists": 0.1788, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4933, "clearances": 0.2466, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6198, "xgot": 0.4894, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4704, "total_progression": 23.8056, "progressive_carries": 2.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.4104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1983, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5635, "total_shots": 0.9739, "expected_assists": 0.0544, "key_pass": 0.4533, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.8172, "accurate_pass": 7.7806, "duels_won": 2.337, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.894, "crosses_total": 0.6796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4531, "possession_lost": 3.8062, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.9427, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0323, "won_contest": 0.9561, "ball_recovery": 0.8979, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4933, "clearances": 0.2466, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6198, "xgot": 0.4894, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4704, "total_progression": 23.8056, "progressive_carries": 2.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.4104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 2.2996, xG scale 1.1628, xA scale 1.2424, team xA 1.74 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1427, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5635, "total_shots": 0.9739, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.4533, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.8172, "accurate_pass": 7.7806, "duels_won": 2.337, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.894, "crosses_total": 0.6796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4531, "possession_lost": 3.8062, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.9427, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0323, "won_contest": 0.9561, "ball_recovery": 0.8979, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4933, "clearances": 0.2466, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6198, "xgot": 0.3523, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4704, "total_progression": 23.8056, "progressive_carries": 2.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.4104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8023, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.674, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 1.399, "team_expected_assists": 1.7381, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1628, "xa_scale": 1.2424, "opponent_lambda": 1.527, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.619 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1983, "after": 0.1427 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0544, "after": 0.0418 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1427, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5635, "total_shots": 0.9739, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.4533, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.8172, "accurate_pass": 7.7806, "duels_won": 2.337, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.894, "crosses_total": 0.6796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4531, "possession_lost": 3.8062, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.9427, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0323, "won_contest": 0.9561, "ball_recovery": 0.8979, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4933, "clearances": 0.2466, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6198, "xgot": 0.3523, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4704, "total_progression": 23.8056, "progressive_carries": 2.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.4104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8023, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 927, "fifa_rank": 416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1427, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5635, "total_shots": 0.9739, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.4533, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.8172, "accurate_pass": 7.7806, "duels_won": 2.337, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.894, "crosses_total": 0.6796, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4531, "possession_lost": 3.8062, "dispossessed": 0.5163, "duels_lost": 1.9427, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0323, "won_contest": 0.9561, "ball_recovery": 0.8979, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.1526, "fouls_drawn": 0.7043, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4933, "clearances": 0.2466, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.6198, "xgot": 0.3523, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4704, "total_progression": 23.8056, "progressive_carries": 2.0111, "shots_off_target": 0.4104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.619, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.15, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1274, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8023, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1274, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "scorer_weight": 0.1145, "squad_weight_total": 2.8912, "weight_share": 0.0396, "finishing_factor": 0.8023, "appearance_weight": 0.619, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.9095, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.9095, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7484 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7484, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7484, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1427, "goal_rate": 0.1492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5635, "total_shots": 0.9739, "expected_assists": 0.0418, "key_pass": 0.4533, "rating": 6.9961, "minutes": 19.15, "total_pass": 8.8172, "accurate_pass": 7.7806, "duels_won": 2.337, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.894, "crosses_total": 0.6796, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "finishing_factor": 0.8023, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0404, "assist_rate": 0.1788, "provider_weight": 0.0522, "squad_weight_total": 1.8872, "weight_share": 0.0277, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.619, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.3845, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3845, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2836 } ] } } ] }, "Dani Olmo": { "player_id": 789071, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 182, "market_value": 58000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.535004 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.231373 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.072829 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040156 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.033189 } ], "others_margin": -0.046674 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.001262664794922, "model_output": 7.0013, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1099 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": 0.0698, "total": 7.0013, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.111852 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.109871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03852 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.023232 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022886 } ], "others_margin": 0.069736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0114, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1756, "assist_rate": 0.1756, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0558, "shots_on_target": 0.231, "total_shots": 0.7953, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3382, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.2005, "tackles_won": 0.1238, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0204, "fouls_drawn": 0.9549, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0114, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0063)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1235, "expected_assists": 0.0896, "assists": 0.1745, "assist_rate": 0.1745, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.2307, "total_shots": 0.795, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 21.96, "total_pass": 17.9893, "accurate_pass": 16.7142, "duels_won": 2.0068, "total_long_balls": 0.9988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8335, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6393, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4395, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2747, "crosses_total": 0.3396, "crosses_accurate": 0.1039, "touches": 24.1864, "possession_lost": 2.838, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.113, "aerial_won": 0.3129, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.1992, "tackles_won": 0.123, "tackles": 0.3497, "clearances": 0.7438, "total_contest": 0.6603, "won_contest": 0.3893, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0203, "fouls_drawn": 0.9513, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.475, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0769, "ball_carries": 6.4353, "total_progression": 16.6559, "progressive_carries": 0.2576, "shots_off_target": 0.5643 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0063, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.244, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.0 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assists": 0.2024, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 21.96, "minutes_scale": 1.1598, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assists": 0.2024, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goals": 0.0644, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.1039, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0804, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0892, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 2.2996, xG scale 1.1628, xA scale 1.2424, team xA 1.74 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0619, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.674, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 1.399, "team_expected_assists": 1.7381, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1628, "xa_scale": 1.2424, "opponent_lambda": 1.527, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0804, "after": 0.0558 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1039, "after": 0.0771 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0619, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 426, "fifa_rank": 230.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 2.3276, "total_long_balls": 1.1584, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9667, "total_own_half_passes": 6.5407, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.3089, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.324, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.0768, "crosses_total": 0.3939, "crosses_accurate": 0.1205, "touches": 28.0523, "possession_lost": 3.2916, "dispossessed": 0.4762, "duels_lost": 1.2909, "aerial_won": 0.3629, "aerial_lost": 0.1437, "interceptions": 0.231, "tackles_won": 0.1427, "tackles": 0.4056, "clearances": 0.8627, "total_contest": 0.7658, "won_contest": 0.4515, "challenges_lost": 0.2017, "fouls": 0.0235, "fouls_drawn": 1.1034, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5509, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0619, "ball_carries": 7.4639, "total_progression": 19.3181, "progressive_carries": 0.2988, "shots_off_target": 0.6545, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0533, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0533, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "scorer_weight": 0.049, "squad_weight_total": 2.8912, "weight_share": 0.0169, "finishing_factor": 0.8773, "appearance_weight": 0.597, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.9095, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.9095, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7484 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7484, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7484, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3031, "expected_assists": 0.0771, "assist_rate": 0.2024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0558, "goal_rate": 0.0644, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2676, "total_shots": 0.9221, "rating": 7.0013, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.8646, "accurate_pass": 19.3857, "duels_won": 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0588 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.057 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0027 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0027 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0319, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744455, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.377424 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.151362 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.079235 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.074691 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.069337 } ], "others_margin": -0.237355 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3941189646720886, "model_output": 0.3941, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2532 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0293 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": 0.0198, "total": 0.3941, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.471126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072148 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.067873 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.056549 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.033607 } ], "others_margin": 0.051663 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6815972328186035, "model_output": 6.6816, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0585 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0192, "total": 6.6816, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05855 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018585 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.016489 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012758 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012013 } ], "others_margin": -0.019173 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 17, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0069, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1257, "goal_rate": 0.1257, "shots_on_target": 0.2993, "total_shots": 0.739, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.3968, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 18.24, "total_pass": 6.2312, "accurate_pass": 5.0117, "duels_won": 1.449, "total_long_balls": 0.1606, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1216, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7107, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.7799, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5752, "possession_lost": 3.5948, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 2.4142, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.1039, "won_contest": 0.5781, "ball_recovery": 0.5899, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.3679, "fouls_drawn": 0.024, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2171, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2765, "clearances": 0.0593, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1882, "xgot": 0.1541, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 3.1344, "total_progression": 3.6317, "progressive_carries": 0.2892, "shots_off_target": 0.4397 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.0069, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 17, "history_shrink": 0.2273, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.2193, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "projection_minutes": 18.24, "minutes_scale": 1.4234, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goals": 0.1789, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.2193, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1354, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.2193, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.67 (squad xG sum 2.2996, xG scale 1.1628, xA scale 1.2424, team xA 1.74 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.674, "squad_xg_sum": 2.2996, "squad_xa_sum": 1.399, "team_expected_assists": 1.7381, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1628, "xa_scale": 1.2424, "opponent_lambda": 1.527, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.589 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1354, "after": 0.0927 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0457, "after": 0.0334 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.4763, "possession_lost": 5.1169, "dispossessed": 0.9122, "duels_lost": 3.4364, "aerial_lost": 0.5881, "total_contest": 1.5713, "won_contest": 0.8229, "ball_recovery": 0.8397, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.5237, "fouls_drawn": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.309, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3936, "clearances": 0.0844, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2679, "xgot": 0.1502, "offsides": 0.2067, "ball_carries": 4.4615, "total_progression": 5.1694, "progressive_carries": 0.4117, "shots_off_target": 0.6259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.886, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "scorer_weight": 0.1144, "squad_weight_total": 2.8912, "weight_share": 0.0396, "finishing_factor": 1.2346, "appearance_weight": 0.589, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Lamine Yamal", "weight": 0.9095, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.9095, "runner_up": "Raphinha", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.7484 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Raphinha", "weight": 0.7484, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7484, "runner_up": "Lamine Yamal", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.387 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0927, "goal_rate": 0.1789, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.426, "total_shots": 1.0519, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5648, "rating": 6.6816, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.8696, "accurate_pass": 7.1337, "duels_won": 2.0625, "total_long_balls": 0.2286, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1731, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7053, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3804, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1003 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.053 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 0.3518, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.100277 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052974 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.037258 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.009096 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.008398 } ], "others_margin": -0.034086 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.760107040405273, "model_output": 6.7601, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0464 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.7601, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.046429 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019976 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.017118 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014436 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007963 } ], "others_margin": -0.01196 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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1.4974 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.7829, "after": 0.7763 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7318, "after": 0.7256 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.857, "tackles": 2.027, "tackles_won": 1.1805, "clearances": 2.3131, "aerial_won": 0.7604, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.8031, "accurate_pass": 38.5462, "duels_won": 3.5383, "total_long_balls": 1.9798, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1129, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3429, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.2035, "crosses_total": 1.4974, "crosses_accurate": 0.2548, "touches": 63.1532, "possession_lost": 8.6136, "dispossessed": 0.2724, "duels_lost": 2.7489, "aerial_lost": 0.5251, "total_contest": 0.2708, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6909, "challenges_lost": 0.9656, "fouls": 0.7256, "fouls_drawn": 0.7763, "blocks": 0.4355, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.066, "assist_rate": 0.066, "expected_goals": 0.0273, "expected_assists": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1004, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.028, "ball_carries": 11.2427, "total_progression": 39.1876, "progressive_carries": 0.165, "key_pass": 0.6371, "shots_off_target": 0.2546 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.857, "tackles": 2.027, "tackles_won": 1.1805, "clearances": 2.3131, "aerial_won": 0.7604, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.8031, "accurate_pass": 38.5462, "duels_won": 3.5383, "total_long_balls": 1.9798, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1129, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3429, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.2035, 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"duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.857, "tackles": 2.027, "tackles_won": 1.1805, "clearances": 2.3131, "aerial_won": 0.7604, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.8031, "accurate_pass": 38.5462, "duels_won": 3.5383, "total_long_balls": 1.9798, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1129, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3429, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.2035, "crosses_total": 1.4974, "crosses_accurate": 0.2548, "touches": 63.1532, "possession_lost": 8.6136, "dispossessed": 0.2724, "duels_lost": 2.7489, "aerial_lost": 0.5251, "total_contest": 0.2708, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6909, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.857, "tackles": 2.027, "tackles_won": 1.1805, "clearances": 2.3131, "aerial_won": 0.7604, "total_shots": 0.355, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 88.21, "total_pass": 43.8031, "accurate_pass": 38.5462, "duels_won": 3.5383, "total_long_balls": 1.9798, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1129, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7725, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.3429, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.0307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.2035, "crosses_total": 1.4974, "crosses_accurate": 0.2548, "touches": 63.1532, "possession_lost": 8.6136, "dispossessed": 0.2724, "duels_lost": 2.7489, "aerial_lost": 0.5251, "total_contest": 0.2708, "won_contest": 0.0011, "ball_recovery": 3.6909, "challenges_lost": 0.9656, "fouls": 0.7256, "fouls_drawn": 0.7763, "blocks": 0.4355, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.066, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0263, "expected_assists": 0.0428, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0607 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0519 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0501 } ], "others": -0.2135, "total": 0.4091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.3127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.107531 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060661 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051926 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.050129 } ], "others_margin": -0.213466 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.97610330581665, "model_output": 6.9761, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5682, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "assists": 0.0362, "assist_rate": 0.0362, "expected_goals": 0.0294, "goals": 0.0389, "goal_rate": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.1175, "total_shots": 0.4139, "rating": 6.9761, "minutes": 77.92, "total_pass": 56.2258, "accurate_pass": 52.2252, "duels_won": 4.4861, "total_long_balls": 4.1295, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9539, "total_own_half_passes": 26.4423, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6042, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.6209, "crosses_total": 0.0194, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2812, "possession_lost": 6.4197, "dispossessed": 0.7528, "duels_lost": 3.215, "aerial_won": 0.4488, "aerial_lost": 0.1294, "interceptions": 0.7623, "tackles_won": 1.524, "tackles": 2.5561, "clearances": 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midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Xavi Espart", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1097, "skill_edge": 0.0466, "height_edge": 0.028, "attacker_skill": 0.8686, "defender_skill": 0.765, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Xavi Espart", "market_value": 26000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.765 } ], "xg_override": 0.0326 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4488, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.413, "after": 0.4583 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.2963, "after": 0.3288 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1167, "after": 0.1295 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5682, "expected_assists": 0.0457, "assist_rate": 0.0359, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0326, "goal_rate": 0.0428, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1295, "total_shots": 0.4583, "rating": 6.9761, "minutes": 77.92, "total_pass": 56.2258, "accurate_pass": 52.2252, "duels_won": 4.4861, "total_long_balls": 4.1295, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9539, "total_own_half_passes": 26.4423, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6042, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.7834, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.6209, "crosses_total": 0.0193, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.2812, "possession_lost": 6.4197, "dispossessed": 0.7528, "duels_lost": 3.215, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.1294, "interceptions": 0.771, "tackles_won": 1.5226, "tackles": 2.5561, "clearances": 1.153, "total_contest": 0.4277, "won_contest": 0.2969, "challenges_lost": 0.7768, "fouls": 1.4893, "fouls_drawn": 1.176, 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}, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0937 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.073 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0239, "total": 7.0431, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.093743 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.072984 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.037834 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.026671 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.013109 } ], "others_margin": -0.023903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0127, quality 0.887)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "assists": 0.0612, "assist_rate": 0.0612, "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goals": 0.092, "goal_rate": 0.092, "shots_on_target": 0.2908, "total_shots": 0.9495, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2961, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 0.7368, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6478, "tackles_won": 0.6717, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4856, "fouls_drawn": 0.6002, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.6587 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 87000000, "quality_factor": 0.8873, "boost_factor": 1.0127, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0135)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "assists": 0.0648, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2912, "total_shots": 0.9496, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 0.7368, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6523, "tackles_won": 0.6847, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4835, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.6587 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0135, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9144, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6717, "after": 0.6847 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6002, "after": 0.5921 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "assists": 0.0648, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "expected_goals": 0.0753, "goals": 0.0908, "goal_rate": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.2912, "total_shots": 0.9499, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 0.7368, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6523, "tackles_won": 0.6847, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4835, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0004, "xgot": 0.0829, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.6587 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "assists": 0.0648, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "goals": 0.1123, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "shots_on_target": 0.3602, "total_shots": 1.175, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6523, "tackles_won": 0.6847, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4835, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.1025, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.8148, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.237, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Cancelo", "opponent_faced": "João Cancelo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "João Cancelo", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.237, "skill_edge": 0.1652, "height_edge": -0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.898, "defender_skill": 0.5308, "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "João Cancelo", "market_value": 7500000, "role": "LB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5308 } ], "xg_override": 0.0931 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7368, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9499, "after": 1.175 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6587, "after": 0.8148 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2912, "after": 0.3602 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0908, "after": 0.1123 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0829, "after": 0.1025 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0753, "after": 0.0931 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0693, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0931, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3602, "total_shots": 1.175, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6523, "tackles_won": 0.6847, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4835, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.1025, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.8148, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.237, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Cancelo", "opponent_faced": "João Cancelo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.5869, xG scale 0.9623, xA scale 1.1580, team xA 0.99 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3602, "total_shots": 1.175, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6523, "tackles_won": 0.6847, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4835, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.8148, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.237, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Cancelo", "opponent_faced": "João Cancelo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1342, "creation_factor": 0.9623 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0693, "after": 0.0802 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3602, "total_shots": 1.175, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6523, "tackles_won": 0.6847, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4835, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.8148, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.237, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Cancelo", "opponent_faced": "João Cancelo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1342, "creation_factor": 0.9623, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 46, "fifa_rank": 52.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 87.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3602, "total_shots": 1.175, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3579, "total_own_half_passes": 20.7595, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.5989, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.1957, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.919, "crosses_total": 0.2965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0666, "touches": 61.4749, "possession_lost": 6.1496, "dispossessed": 0.4183, "duels_lost": 1.753, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.0717, "interceptions": 0.6523, "tackles_won": 0.6847, "tackles": 0.8885, "clearances": 1.4561, "total_contest": 0.9351, "won_contest": 0.6478, "challenges_lost": 0.49, "fouls": 0.4835, "fouls_drawn": 0.5921, "blocks": 0.2899, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.0005, "xgot": 0.0986, "ball_carries": 16.4045, "total_progression": 54.5802, "progressive_carries": 1.4266, "shots_off_target": 0.8148, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.237, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 3.1, "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "João Cancelo", "opponent_faced": "João Cancelo", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0857, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1342, "creation_factor": 0.9623, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0857, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "scorer_weight": 0.1016, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.0646, "finishing_factor": 1.1342, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.7218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7218, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2271 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8061, "expected_assists": 0.0802, "assist_rate": 0.0648, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0896, "goal_rate": 0.1123, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3602, "total_shots": 1.175, "rating": 7.0431, "minutes": 82.3, "total_pass": 51.9553, "accurate_pass": 47.5179, "duels_won": 2.8734, "total_long_balls": 3.3528, 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75.5528, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.0291, "duels_lost": 2.1649, "aerial_lost": 1.0188, "total_contest": 0.0082, "won_contest": 0.0082, "ball_recovery": 2.7907, "challenges_lost": 0.2285, "fouls": 0.9366, "fouls_drawn": 0.4823, "blocks": 0.3408, "goal_rate": 0.0285, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0173, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0895, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0.3119, "big_chances_created": 0.0019, "xgot": 0.0675, "ball_carries": 21.0064, "total_progression": 92.0871, "progressive_carries": 1.0391, "key_pass": 0.2772, "shots_off_target": 0.2264, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.5869, xG scale 0.9623, xA scale 1.1580, team xA 0.99 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1728, "tackles": 1.3395, "tackles_won": 0.7784, "clearances": 5.0582, "aerial_won": 1.673, "total_shots": 0.5498, "rating": 7.04, "minutes": 82.2, "total_pass": 63.4725, "accurate_pass": 59.9617, "duels_won": 3.4599, "total_long_balls": 5.6889, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8839, "total_own_half_passes": 37.265, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.4892, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.2074, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.4725, "crosses_total": 0.1104, "crosses_accurate": 0.1104, "touches": 75.5528, "possession_lost": 3.9755, "dispossessed": 0.0291, "duels_lost": 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"assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0363, "after": 0.042 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0931 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0215 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 0.6413, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.093113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051721 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.030865 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030616 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.021512 } ], "others_margin": 0.004039 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9106316566467285, "model_output": 6.9106, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7771, "tackles": 0.8031, "tackles_won": 0.576, "clearances": 5.1724, "aerial_won": 2.0591, "total_shots": 0.6403, "rating": 6.9106, "minutes": 88.14, "total_pass": 70.0079, "accurate_pass": 65.507, "duels_won": 2.6642, "total_long_balls": 5.4438, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0623, "total_own_half_passes": 50.4783, "accurate_own_half_passes": 48.6817, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.5296, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8253, "crosses_total": 0.0118, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 79.0165, "possession_lost": 4.8994, "dispossessed": 0.0826, "duels_lost": 1.2095, "aerial_lost": 0.5614, "total_contest": 0.0138, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9651, "challenges_lost": 0.0192, "fouls": 0.5691, "fouls_drawn": 0.2651, "blocks": 0.9346, "goals": 0.0431, 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-0.0119, "total": -0.0901, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.016613, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.076994 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.039533 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.037188 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032696 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.029249 } ], "others_margin": -0.011822 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.998800277709961, "model_output": 6.9988, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0429 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0359 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 7.0091, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0257 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": 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"predicted": 1.9999654293060303, "model_output": 2.0, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5138 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1016 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0549 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.051 } ], "others": 0.1219, "total": 2.0, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.513781 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.101566 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 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0.6354, "total_contest": 3.8876, "won_contest": 2.557, "challenges_lost": 0.6194, "fouls": 1.1525, "fouls_drawn": 2.8032, "blocks": 0.1299, "big_chances_created": 0.4078, "big_chances_missed": 0.183, "xgot": 0.317, "ball_carries": 22.598, "total_progression": 64.4598, "progressive_carries": 2.3393, "shots_off_target": 1.2301 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 151000000, "quality_factor": 0.8995, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0146)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.7512, "expected_assists": 0.1453, "assists": 0.1477, "assist_rate": 0.1477, "expected_goals": 0.1927, "goals": 0.2243, "goal_rate": 0.2243, "shots_on_target": 0.8078, "total_shots": 2.0402, "rating": 7.1475, "minutes": 83.14, "total_pass": 41.4933, "accurate_pass": 37.1273, "duels_won": 8.0525, "total_long_balls": 3.3745, "accurate_long_balls": 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8.0525, "total_long_balls": 3.3745, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7513, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3812, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0463, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0811, "crosses_total": 0.6208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0459, "touches": 61.5518, "possession_lost": 9.5194, "dispossessed": 1.1238, "duels_lost": 5.1008, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9311, "interceptions": 0.5763, "tackles_won": 1.393, "tackles": 1.9359, "clearances": 0.6354, "total_contest": 3.8876, "won_contest": 2.557, "challenges_lost": 0.6194, "fouls": 1.1457, "fouls_drawn": 2.7972, "blocks": 0.1299, "big_chances_created": 0.4078, "big_chances_missed": 0.198, "xgot": 0.3431, "ball_carries": 22.598, "total_progression": 64.4598, "progressive_carries": 2.3393, "shots_off_target": 1.3312, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0822, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central 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14.3812, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0463, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.0811, "crosses_total": 0.6208, "crosses_accurate": 0.0459, "touches": 61.5518, "possession_lost": 9.5194, "dispossessed": 1.1238, "duels_lost": 5.1008, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.9311, "interceptions": 0.5763, "tackles_won": 1.393, "tackles": 1.9359, "clearances": 0.6354, "total_contest": 3.8876, "won_contest": 2.557, "challenges_lost": 0.6194, "fouls": 1.1457, "fouls_drawn": 2.7972, "blocks": 0.1299, "big_chances_created": 0.4078, "big_chances_missed": 0.198, "xgot": 0.3302, "ball_carries": 22.598, "total_progression": 64.4598, "progressive_carries": 2.3393, "shots_off_target": 1.3312, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0822, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Pedri", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1323, "creation_factor": 1.0123 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2085, "after": 0.2006 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1453, "after": 0.1683 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0492, quality 0.899)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goals": 0.1093, "goal_rate": 0.1093, "shots_on_target": 0.4204, "total_shots": 1.1221, "expected_assists": 0.1326, "key_pass": 1.455, "rating": 6.9001, "minutes": 80.59, "total_pass": 17.0706, "accurate_pass": 13.9311, "duels_won": 6.5098, "total_long_balls": 0.3575, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2547, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.426, "crosses_total": 1.9738, "crosses_accurate": 0.9581, "touches": 32.2942, "possession_lost": 8.0332, "dispossessed": 0.6987, "duels_lost": 3.472, "aerial_lost": 0.3643, "total_contest": 4.4593, "won_contest": 3.2602, "ball_recovery": 1.5461, "challenges_lost": 0.5066, "fouls": 0.7034, "fouls_drawn": 2.251, "assists": 0.1969, "assist_rate": 0.1969, "interceptions": 0.5316, 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.305736 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.037925 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.035901 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.013338 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.013079 } ], "others_margin": 0.043896 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.888875484466553, "model_output": 6.8889, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0475 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.022 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0181 } ], "others": 0.0624, "total": 6.8889, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.04748 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024796 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024046 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021983 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018084 } ], "others_margin": 0.062319 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0176, quality 0.857)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3928, "tackles": 0.6285, "tackles_won": 0.4196, "clearances": 0.9024, "aerial_won": 0.2405, "total_shots": 0.315, "rating": 6.8889, "minutes": 17.32, "total_pass": 9.3731, "accurate_pass": 7.3762, "duels_won": 0.9166, "total_long_balls": 2.6672, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1999, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8482, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3993, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9769, "crosses_total": 1.4157, "crosses_accurate": 0.4713, "touches": 15.0505, "possession_lost": 3.7867, "dispossessed": 0.1037, "duels_lost": 0.2711, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1986, "won_contest": 0.1986, "ball_recovery": 0.4386, "challenges_lost": 0.0637, "fouls": 0.1037, "fouls_drawn": 0.1688, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 32, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.142683522414773, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.249, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0133, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (32 historical appearances) to 15.1 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2952, "tackles": 0.721, "tackles_won": 0.4654, "clearances": 0.7716, "aerial_won": 0.2975, "total_shots": 0.1688, "rating": 6.891, "minutes": 11.72, "total_pass": 3.7366, "accurate_pass": 2.894, "duels_won": 1.3392, "total_long_balls": 0.6696, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3887, "total_own_half_passes": 1.3392, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0583, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.3975, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8358, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.9679, "possession_lost": 1.4538, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3304, "aerial_lost": 0.3304, "total_contest": 0.7775, 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"weight": 0.109, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 64.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0926, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0787, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0669, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-02", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, 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"name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": 0.0218, "total": 0.4654, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.157413, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.681451 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.050784 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.025977 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.02457 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.023376 } ], "others_margin": 0.047989 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.7716021537780762, "model_output": 0.7716, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.3045 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1682 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0854 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0201 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4514, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0778 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2677 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1115 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0725 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.057 } ], "others": -0.0933, "total": 0.7716, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.238783, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.92131 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.216769 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.106237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.075653 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.063844 } ], "others_margin": -0.114256 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.2975044846534729, "model_output": 0.2975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1616 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1408 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0969 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0269 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.382, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8021 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1185 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0584 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0545, "total": 0.2975, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.323553, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.868457 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.228676 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.135286 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.095892 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.03968 } ], "others_margin": -0.167888 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16880254447460175, "model_output": 0.1688, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1182 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0615 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0311 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0298 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0297 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4711, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.241 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0698 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.1688, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.471132, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.241044 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069833 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02731 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.009647 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.008239 } ], "others_margin": -0.017354 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.891017436981201, "model_output": 6.891, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0551 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.037 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0327 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7851, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.024 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 6.891, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.785131, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.06398 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.034652 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029919 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.026604 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.024036 } ], "others_margin": -0.004 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0133, quality 0.834)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2992, "tackles": 0.7305, "tackles_won": 0.4716, "clearances": 0.7819, "aerial_won": 0.3015, "total_shots": 0.171, "rating": 6.891, "minutes": 11.72, "total_pass": 3.7863, "accurate_pass": 2.9325, "duels_won": 1.357, "total_long_balls": 0.6785, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3939, "total_own_half_passes": 1.357, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0724, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8602, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.0473, "possession_lost": 1.4731, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3348, "aerial_lost": 0.3348, "total_contest": 0.7878, "won_contest": 0.7878, "ball_recovery": 0.7878, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1817, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.171 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 53000000, "quality_factor": 0.834, "boost_factor": 1.0133, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0070)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2986, "tackles": 0.7305, "tackles_won": 0.4698, "clearances": 0.7819, "aerial_won": 0.3015, "total_shots": 0.1698, "rating": 6.891, "minutes": 11.72, "total_pass": 3.7863, "accurate_pass": 2.9325, "duels_won": 1.357, "total_long_balls": 0.6785, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3939, "total_own_half_passes": 1.357, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.0724, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.4294, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8602, "crosses_total": 0.0015, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.0473, "possession_lost": 1.4731, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.3348, "aerial_lost": 0.3348, "total_contest": 0.7878, "won_contest": 0.7878, "ball_recovery": 0.7878, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.0008, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.1817, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.171 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.007, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1302, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.7 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.25)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3858, "tackles": 0.9438, "tackles_won": 0.607, "clearances": 1.0102, "aerial_won": 0.3895, "total_shots": 0.2209, "rating": 6.891, "minutes": 15.14, "total_pass": 4.892, "accurate_pass": 3.7889, "duels_won": 1.7533, "total_long_balls": 0.8766, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5089, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7533, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3856, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4034, "crosses_total": 0.0019, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.8133, "possession_lost": 1.9033, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4326, "aerial_lost": 0.3348, "total_contest": 1.0179, "won_contest": 1.0179, "ball_recovery": 1.0179, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.001, "fouls_drawn": 0.001, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.5268, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.389249 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.151577 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.117468 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": -0.094134 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.089448 } ], "others_margin": 0.233734 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.4079054296016693, "model_output": 0.4079, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1263 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0477 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0284 } ], "others": 0.0728, "total": 0.4079, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.216133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.126857 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "margin": 0.096005 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.088673 } ], "others_margin": 0.196813 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0094152688980103, "model_output": 1.0094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0367 } ], "others": 0.1612, "total": 1.0094, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.201914 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.106008 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05729 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036746 } ], "others_margin": 0.161192 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.966583728790283, "model_output": 6.9666, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1304 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0912 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0171 } ], "others": 0.0593, "total": 6.9666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.130382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091181 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019687 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017079 } ], "others_margin": 0.059295 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.892)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4392, "expected_assists": 0.144, "assists": 0.2043, "assist_rate": 0.2043, "expected_goals": 0.1108, "goals": 0.1103, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "shots_on_target": 0.4132, "total_shots": 1.0225, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 20.8, "total_pass": 18.7096, "accurate_pass": 17.56, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 1.8757, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5419, "total_own_half_passes": 6.154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.154, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4061, "crosses_total": 2.6354, "crosses_accurate": 0.8857, "touches": 27.3979, "possession_lost": 3.8436, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.8298, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8371, "tackles": 1.0346, "clearances": 0.2439, 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"total_own_half_passes": 6.154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.154, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4061, "crosses_total": 2.6251, "crosses_accurate": 0.8857, "touches": 27.3979, "possession_lost": 3.8436, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.8298, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.834, "tackles": 1.0346, "clearances": 0.2439, "total_contest": 0.707, "won_contest": 0.623, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.2248, "fouls_drawn": 0.2723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5013, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1867, "ball_carries": 7.6773, "total_progression": 34.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.164, "shots_off_target": 0.6093 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2311, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6354, "after": 2.6251 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.8 to 12.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.47)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "expected_goals": 0.0687, "goals": 0.0686, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, 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integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 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"player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 74.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1537, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 20.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1306, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-14", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.111, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-10", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0944, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 37.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0802, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0682, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-04", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.058, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-02", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 26.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0493, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-08", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0419, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0356, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalShots": 0.9409, "creative_index": 0.3498, "expectedGoals": 0.112, "expectedAssists": 0.0611, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 0.2724 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6046447157859802, "model_output": 0.6046, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1676 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1369 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0599 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0498 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8862, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3483 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0192 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.019 } ], "others": 0.0336, "total": 0.6046, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.120816, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49934 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.059252 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04966 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.035407 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.033902 } ], "others_margin": 0.057325 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04528839886188507, "model_output": 0.0453, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.1257 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1072 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0611 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0554 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0543 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0858, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0026 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": 0.0025, "total": 0.0453, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.456047, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561328 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.105496 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056597 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.052854 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.034131 } ], "others_margin": 0.058555 } }, { "target": "goalAssist", "predicted": 0.054717447608709335, "model_output": 0.0547, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.0535 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0321 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0306 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0852, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0218 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0036 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0033 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0038, "total": 0.0547, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.462406, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.295574 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.055462 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.049985 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": -0.045213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040921 } ], "others_margin": -0.066936 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.056107740849256516, "model_output": 0.0561, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0794 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0546 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0944, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.04 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0027 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0025 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.0561, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.359917, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.551439 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.170813 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.046405 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.042574 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.039531 } ], "others_margin": -0.096576 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.047137290239334106, "model_output": 0.0471, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0916 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0421 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0976, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.006 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.005 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": 0.0042 } ], "others": -0.0205, "total": 0.0471, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.326414, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.543417 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.100911 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.076876 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.065812 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": 0.06364 } ], "others_margin": -0.360477 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23861375451087952, "model_output": 0.2386, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.127 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0266 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.324, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.14 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0053, "total": 0.2386, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.127039, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.565945 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.101762 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.0609 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.037609 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.037158 } ], "others_margin": 0.022645 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6668526530265808, "model_output": 0.6669, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4585 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0327 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0247 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0216 } ], "others": 0.0728, "total": 0.6669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.458469 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.032743 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.032519 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.02465 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.021646 } ], "others_margin": 0.0726 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.688675880432129, "model_output": 6.6887, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0725 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0259 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0071 } ], "others": -0.0144, "total": 6.6887, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072548 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02592 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.013627 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007105 } ], "others_margin": -0.01434 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0158, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6142, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assists": 0.0556, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "expected_goals": 0.057, "goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.2424, "total_shots": 0.6774, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 21.78, "total_pass": 9.4389, "accurate_pass": 8.5853, "duels_won": 1.7282, "total_long_balls": 0.2944, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1853, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6976, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8877, "crosses_total": 0.5798, "crosses_accurate": 0.2573, "touches": 16.3198, "possession_lost": 3.6365, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.3328, "aerial_won": 0.2229, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0298, "tackles": 0.0866, "clearances": 0.2374, "total_contest": 0.6734, "won_contest": 0.3809, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3342, "fouls_drawn": 1.0376, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3533, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0561, "ball_carries": 5.4643, "total_progression": 18.572, "progressive_carries": 0.9502, "shots_off_target": 0.435 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0158, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assists": 0.0598, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0603, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.41, "projection_minutes": 21.78, "minutes_scale": 1.0748, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assists": 0.0598, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0603, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0603, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.5869, xG scale 0.9623, xA scale 1.1580, team xA 0.99 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0613, "after": 0.0333 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0494, "after": 0.0323 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3181, "fifa_rank": 1580.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0323, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "scorer_weight": 0.0304, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.0193, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.7218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7218, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2271 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0323, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0314, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0314, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "provider_weight": 0.0357, "squad_weight_total": 1.0718, "weight_share": 0.0333, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yan Diomande", "weight": 0.192, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.192, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Vinícius Júnior": { "player_id": 868812, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 176, "market_value": 146000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1516, "goal_rate": 0.0999, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0948, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9974, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 8.8262, "dispossessed": 1.2706, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.1907, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1095, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 105, "progressive_carries": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.12, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16421066, "match_date": "2026-10-10 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "substitute", "is_starting_11": false, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "source": "lineup.csv" }, { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0641, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416342, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { 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1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 89, "combined_rank_score": 90.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 91.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.5, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 90.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9974, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Vinícius Júnior", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 84 }, { "player_name": "Nico Schlotterbeck", "ranking": 85 }, { "player_name": "Arturo Vidal", "ranking": 86 }, { "player_name": "Ousmane Dembélé", "ranking": 87 }, { "player_name": "Diogo Costa", "ranking": 88 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Khozhiakbar Alizhonov", "ranking": 90 }, { "player_name": "Abduvokhid Nematov", "ranking": 91 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Suárez", "ranking": 92 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Dotor", "ranking": 93 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Martínez", "ranking": 94 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.779, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1529 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.055 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0489 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0452 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.674, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2887 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0751 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0437 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": 0.1298, "total": 0.6818, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.394559, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559155 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.177978 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.090779 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.048928 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.041854 } ], "others_margin": 0.211126 } }, { 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"dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.023 } ], "others": 0.1096, "total": 6.9187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08697 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.048919 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.036065 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025889 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.023043 } ], "others_margin": 0.109592 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0195, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.1188, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 1.1566, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6711, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 9.4322, "accurate_pass": 8.6888, "duels_won": 1.9353, "total_long_balls": 0.1115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1922, "crosses_total": 2.2662, "crosses_accurate": 0.5732, "touches": 17.4307, "possession_lost": 3.9833, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 1.7363, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 1.5415, "won_contest": 0.5732, "ball_recovery": 0.8409, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1329, "fouls_drawn": 0.6681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4436, "tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.7842 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.5869, xG scale 0.9623, xA scale 1.1580, team xA 0.99 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1783, "after": 0.1076 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1099, "after": 0.0798 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "scorer_weight": 0.0984, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.0626, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.7218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7218, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2271 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0749, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0638, "squad_weight_total": 1.0718, "weight_share": 0.0596, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yan Diomande", "weight": 0.192, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.192, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Rodrygo": { "player_id": 910536, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0749, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14081798, "match_date": "2026-03-02", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6943, "expected_assists": 0.109, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083254, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", 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"key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083185, "match_date": "2025-12-20", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "expected_assists": 0.6658, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 6, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083164, "match_date": "2025-12-14", 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"margin": 0.05648 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.054677 } ], "others_margin": 0.287641 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.918698787689209, "model_output": 6.9187, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0739 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0574 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0442 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0409 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0331 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7622, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.087 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0489 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0361 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.023 } ], "others": 0.1096, "total": 6.9187, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.762162, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.08697 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.048919 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.036065 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025889 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.023043 } ], "others_margin": 0.109592 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0195, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1334, "goals": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.1188, "shots_on_target": 0.3724, "total_shots": 1.1566, "expected_assists": 0.0822, "key_pass": 0.6711, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 20.05, "total_pass": 9.4322, "accurate_pass": 8.6888, "duels_won": 1.9353, "total_long_balls": 0.1115, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8798, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1922, "crosses_total": 2.2662, "crosses_accurate": 0.5732, "touches": 17.4307, "possession_lost": 3.9833, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 1.7363, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 1.5415, "won_contest": 0.5732, "ball_recovery": 0.8409, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1329, "fouls_drawn": 0.6681, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4436, "tackles": 0.6941, "clearances": 0.1739, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.348, "xgot": 0.1122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7871, "total_progression": 25.2491, "progressive_carries": 1.9769, "shots_off_target": 0.7842 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0195, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 19, "history_shrink": 0.2083, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.1 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 20.05, "minutes_scale": 1.3364, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goals": 0.1588, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1783, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.1099, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.1499, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.5869, xG scale 0.9623, xA scale 1.1580, team xA 0.99 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1783, "after": 0.1076 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1099, "after": 0.0798 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 303, "fifa_rank": 229.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "scorer_weight": 0.0984, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.0626, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.7218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7218, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2271 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1076, "goal_rate": 0.1588, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4977, "total_shots": 1.5457, "expected_assists": 0.0798, "key_pass": 0.8969, "rating": 6.9187, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 12.6051, "accurate_pass": 11.6116, "duels_won": 2.5863, "total_long_balls": 0.149, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5305, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6116, "crosses_total": 3.0285, "crosses_accurate": 0.766, "touches": 23.2942, "possession_lost": 5.3232, "dispossessed": 0.0292, "duels_lost": 2.3204, "aerial_lost": 0.4146, "total_contest": 2.06, "won_contest": 0.766, "ball_recovery": 1.1238, "challenges_lost": 0.1913, "fouls": 0.1776, "fouls_drawn": 0.8928, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5928, "tackles": 0.9276, "clearances": 0.2324, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0458, "big_chances_missed": 0.4651, "xgot": 0.0904, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0702, "total_progression": 33.7427, "progressive_carries": 2.6419, "shots_off_target": 1.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0989, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0749, "finishing_factor": 0.9146, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0749, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0638, "squad_weight_total": 1.0718, "weight_share": 0.0596, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yan Diomande", "weight": 0.192, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.192, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Franco Mastantuono": { "player_id": 1403559, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 177, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, 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-0.026656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02592 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.013627 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.007105 } ], "others_margin": -0.01434 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0158, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6142, "expected_assists": 0.046, "assists": 0.0556, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "expected_goals": 0.057, "goals": 0.0479, "goal_rate": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.2424, "total_shots": 0.6774, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 21.78, "total_pass": 9.4389, "accurate_pass": 8.5853, "duels_won": 1.7282, "total_long_balls": 0.2944, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1853, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6976, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7116, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8877, "crosses_total": 0.5798, "crosses_accurate": 0.2573, "touches": 16.3198, "possession_lost": 3.6365, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.3328, "aerial_won": 0.2229, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0298, "tackles": 0.0866, "clearances": 0.2374, "total_contest": 0.6734, "won_contest": 0.3809, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3342, "fouls_drawn": 1.0376, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3533, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0561, "ball_carries": 5.4643, "total_progression": 18.572, "progressive_carries": 0.9502, "shots_off_target": 0.435 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0158, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 23.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assists": 0.0598, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0603, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.41, "projection_minutes": 21.78, "minutes_scale": 1.0748, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assists": 0.0598, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goals": 0.0515, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0603, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0603, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.5869, xG scale 0.9623, xA scale 1.1580, team xA 0.99 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0613, "after": 0.0333 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0494, "after": 0.0323 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3181, "fifa_rank": 1580.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0323, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "scorer_weight": 0.0304, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.0193, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.7218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7218, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2271 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6601, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0515, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2605, "total_shots": 0.7281, "rating": 6.6887, "minutes": 23.41, "total_pass": 10.1449, "accurate_pass": 9.2274, "duels_won": 1.8575, "total_long_balls": 0.3164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1992, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.8994, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2136, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3281, "crosses_total": 0.6232, "crosses_accurate": 0.2765, "touches": 17.5404, "possession_lost": 3.9085, "dispossessed": 1.0839, "duels_lost": 2.5073, "aerial_won": 0.2396, "aerial_lost": 0.5581, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.032, "tackles": 0.0931, "clearances": 0.2552, "total_contest": 0.7238, "won_contest": 0.4094, "challenges_lost": 0.1431, "fouls": 0.3592, "fouls_drawn": 1.1152, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3797, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0327, "ball_carries": 5.873, "total_progression": 19.9611, "progressive_carries": 1.0213, "shots_off_target": 0.4675, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.41, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0323, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0314, "finishing_factor": 0.9119, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0314, "assist_rate": 0.0598, "provider_weight": 0.0357, "squad_weight_total": 1.0718, "weight_share": 0.0333, "creation_factor": 1.1046, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yan Diomande", "weight": 0.192, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.192, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] }, "Arda Güler": { "player_id": 1091116, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 176, "market_value": 97000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0686, 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0.216133 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.126857 }, { "name": "cross_accuracy", "margin": 0.096005 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.088673 } ], "others_margin": 0.196813 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0094152688980103, "model_output": 1.0094, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1313 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1243 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0616 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0455 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0284 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9905, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5442 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0367 } ], "others": 0.1612, "total": 1.0094, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.990465, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.544199 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.201914 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.106008 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.05729 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036746 } ], "others_margin": 0.161192 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.966583728790283, "model_output": 6.9666, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0814 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0732 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0525 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0311 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8489, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1304 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0912 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0171 } ], "others": 0.0593, "total": 6.9666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.848871, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.130382 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091181 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019687 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.017079 } ], "others_margin": 0.059295 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.892)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4392, "expected_assists": 0.144, "assists": 0.2043, "assist_rate": 0.2043, "expected_goals": 0.1108, "goals": 0.1103, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "shots_on_target": 0.4132, "total_shots": 1.0225, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 20.8, "total_pass": 18.7096, "accurate_pass": 17.56, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 1.8757, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5419, "total_own_half_passes": 6.154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.154, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4061, "crosses_total": 2.6354, "crosses_accurate": 0.8857, "touches": 27.3979, "possession_lost": 3.8436, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.8298, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.8371, "tackles": 1.0346, "clearances": 0.2439, "total_contest": 0.707, "won_contest": 0.623, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.2265, "fouls_drawn": 0.2722, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5013, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1867, "ball_carries": 7.6773, "total_progression": 34.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.164, "shots_off_target": 0.6093 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 97000000, "quality_factor": 0.8922, "boost_factor": 1.0129, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4392, "expected_assists": 0.144, "assists": 0.2038, "assist_rate": 0.2038, "expected_goals": 0.1108, "goals": 0.1106, "goal_rate": 0.1106, "shots_on_target": 0.4122, "total_shots": 1.0191, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 20.8, "total_pass": 18.7096, "accurate_pass": 17.56, "duels_won": 1.9299, "total_long_balls": 1.8757, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5419, "total_own_half_passes": 6.154, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.154, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.5556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.4061, "crosses_total": 2.6251, "crosses_accurate": 0.8857, "touches": 27.3979, "possession_lost": 3.8436, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.8298, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.834, "tackles": 1.0346, "clearances": 0.2439, "total_contest": 0.707, "won_contest": 0.623, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.2248, "fouls_drawn": 0.2723, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5013, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1867, "ball_carries": 7.6773, "total_progression": 34.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.164, "shots_off_target": 0.6093 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2311, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6354, "after": 2.6251 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.8 to 12.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.47)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "expected_goals": 0.0687, "goals": 0.0686, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1158, "ball_carries": 4.7614, "total_progression": 21.3064, "progressive_carries": 0.7219, "shots_off_target": 0.3779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.472, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 12.9, "projection_minutes": 20.8, "minutes_scale": 0.6202, "appearance_probability": 0.472 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "expected_goals": 0.0687, "goals": 0.0686, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1158, "ball_carries": 4.7614, "total_progression": 21.3064, "progressive_carries": 0.7219, "shots_off_target": 0.3779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.472, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0687, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1158, "ball_carries": 4.7614, "total_progression": 21.3064, "progressive_carries": 0.7219, "shots_off_target": 0.3779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.472, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.5869, xG scale 0.9623, xA scale 1.1580, team xA 0.99 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0526, "ball_carries": 4.7614, "total_progression": 21.3064, "progressive_carries": 0.7219, "shots_off_target": 0.3779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.472, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9992, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.527, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5869, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8571, "team_expected_assists": 0.9925, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9623, "xa_scale": 1.158, "opponent_lambda": 2.674, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.472 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0687, "after": 0.0312 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0893, "after": 0.0488 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0526, "ball_carries": 4.7614, "total_progression": 21.3064, "progressive_carries": 0.7219, "shots_off_target": 0.3779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.472, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9992, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 250, "fifa_rank": 314.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0526, "ball_carries": 4.7614, "total_progression": 21.3064, "progressive_carries": 0.7219, "shots_off_target": 0.3779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.472, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0302, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9992, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0302, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "scorer_weight": 0.0312, "squad_weight_total": 1.5727, "weight_share": 0.0198, "finishing_factor": 0.9992, "appearance_weight": 0.472, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Kylian Mbappé", "weight": 0.7218, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.7218, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2271 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8926, "expected_assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0312, "goal_rate": 0.0686, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.6335, "rating": 6.9666, "minutes": 12.9, "total_pass": 11.6035, "accurate_pass": 10.8906, "duels_won": 1.1969, "total_long_balls": 1.1633, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9563, "total_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.8167, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7869, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.074, "crosses_total": 1.6281, "crosses_accurate": 0.5493, "touches": 16.992, "possession_lost": 2.3838, "dispossessed": 0.288, "duels_lost": 0.5146, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0713, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5172, "tackles": 0.6417, "clearances": 0.1513, "total_contest": 0.4385, "won_contest": 0.3864, "challenges_lost": 0.16, "fouls": 0.1394, "fouls_drawn": 0.1689, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3109, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0526, "ball_carries": 4.7614, "total_progression": 21.3064, "progressive_carries": 0.7219, "shots_off_target": 0.3779, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.472, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.9, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.477, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0302, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0464, "finishing_factor": 0.9992, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.1264, "provider_weight": 0.061, "squad_weight_total": 1.0718, "weight_share": 0.0569, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.472, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Yan Diomande", "weight": 0.192, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.192, "runner_up": "Jude Bellingham", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1704, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.53, "expected_assists": 0.99, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 554, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 7.05, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Fermín López", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 113000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.896, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.857, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "xg_contribution": 0.2419, "xg_multiplier": 1.014, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fermín López (LW) is evenly matched against Marc Cucurella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€113M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.242 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.198, "xg_contribution": 0.6468, "xg_multiplier": 0.9975, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 }, { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.802 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (ST) is evenly matched against Marc Cucurella and Dean Huijsen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €64M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.647 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.5149, "xg_multiplier": 0.9291, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Cucurella and Dean Huijsen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.515 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Gordon", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Dean Huijsen" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.191, "xg_contribution": 0.3306, "xg_multiplier": 0.9867, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "CB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.809 }, { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.809 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Gordon (ST) is evenly matched against Marc Cucurella and Dean Huijsen in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €64M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.331 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Gerard Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.825, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.199, "xg_contribution": 0.7032, "xg_multiplier": 0.9987, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.801 }, { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.801 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is evenly matched against Pau Cubarsí and Gerard Martín in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €65M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.703 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Yan Diomande", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 132000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Pedri", "Rodri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.239, "xg_contribution": 0.0988, "xg_multiplier": 0.9979, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 }, { "player": "Rodri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yan Diomande (CAM) is evenly matched against Pedri and Rodri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€132M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Eduardo Camavinga", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Xavi Espart" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.0326, "xg_multiplier": 1.1097, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xavi Espart", "role": "RB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eduardo Camavinga (LWB) is slightly favored against Xavi Espart in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €26M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.11 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Federico Valverde", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "João Cancelo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "xg_contribution": 0.0931, "xg_multiplier": 1.237, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Cancelo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Valverde (RWB) has a clear attacking advantage against João Cancelo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €8M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.24 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 151000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.506, "xg_contribution": 0.2085, "xg_multiplier": 1.0822, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.494 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CM) is slightly favored against Pedri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.0536, "xg_multiplier": 1.0711, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CM) is slightly favored against Pedri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €164M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.878, "away_midfield_power": 0.895, "home_creative_power": 0.926, "away_creative_power": 0.844, "home_defensive_power": 0.711, "away_defensive_power": 0.812, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.495, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Fermín López", "Pedri", "Rodri" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Eduardo Camavinga", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Federico Valverde", "Jude Bellingham" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.6, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 3.1, "key_personal_duel": "Pedri vs Jude Bellingham", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.004, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.007 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-1-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.674, "away_lambda": 1.527, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Dean Huijsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Dean Huijsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Anthony Gordon": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Dean Huijsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gerard Martín": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Yan Diomande", "Jude Bellingham", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "Yan Diomande", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Xavi Espart": { "opponents": [ "Eduardo Camavinga" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Cancelo": { "opponents": [ "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Yan Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Fermín López", "Lamine Yamal", "Raphinha", "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Raphinha", "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Gerard Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yan Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Pedri", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Eduardo Camavinga": { "opponents": [ "Xavi Espart", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "João Cancelo", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Pedri", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ibrahima Konaté": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Antonio Rüdiger": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pedri vs Jude Bellingham will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.73, Away: 1.19. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.081, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9044, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9105, "home_midfield_factor": 1.004, "away_midfield_factor": 1.007, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.8103, "away_avg_quality": 0.8284, "avg_quality_gap": -0.018, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0075, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.0513, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0139, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0402, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.7342, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.6074 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.004, "result": 1.6138 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.6945 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 2.2737 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1907, "result": 2.7073 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9548, "result": 2.5848 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9044, "result": 2.3377 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.081, "result": 2.4187 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 2.4187, "result": 2.4187, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0402, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 2.4187, "result": 2.4187 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.4187 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.639 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 2.8353 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.8353, "result": 2.835, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 3.119 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 3.119, "result": 3.2082, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 3.208 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.208 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 3.208, "result": 3.208, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 2.674 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.1898, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2298 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.007, "result": 1.2385 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.1765 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1765 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.033, "result": 1.2154 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 1.0432 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9105, "result": 0.9498 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.1298 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1298, "result": 1.1298, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0402, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.1298, "result": 1.1298 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1298 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.35 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.8402 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8402, "result": 1.84, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.785 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.785, "result": 1.7339, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.734 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.734 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.734, "result": 1.734, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.527 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.8353, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.8402, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.674, "final_away_lambda": 1.527 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1907, "attack_index": 1.871, "defense_concede_index": 0.812, "form_multiplier": 1.023, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.87, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.25, "team_ppg": 2.34, "opponent_ppg": 1.94 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.033, "attack_index": 1.227, "defense_concede_index": 0.893, "form_multiplier": 0.977, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.88, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.37, "team_ppg": 1.94, "opponent_ppg": 2.34 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Barcelona vs Real Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-1-2 (duel lambdas: Home 2.835, Away 1.840). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.674, Away 1.527 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 11, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Real Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.33, "away_goals_per90": 3.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.674, "away_lambda": 1.527, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.835, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.84 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-25T15:16:56Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }