{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Osasuna", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261026", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0972, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0972, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0635, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Sevilla", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2325, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1084 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0972 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0907 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0824 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0635 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0513, "0-1": 0.059, "0-2": 0.0352, "0-3": 0.0138, "0-4": 0.0041, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0907, "1-1": 0.1084, "1-2": 0.0635, "1-3": 0.025, "1-4": 0.0074, "1-5": 0.0017, "2-0": 0.0824, "2-1": 0.0972, "2-2": 0.0573, "2-3": 0.0225, "2-4": 0.0066, "2-5": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0496, "3-1": 0.0584, "3-2": 0.0344, "3-3": 0.0135, "3-4": 0.004, "3-5": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0223, "4-1": 0.0263, "4-2": 0.0155, "4-3": 0.0061, "4-4": 0.0018, "5-0": 0.0081, "5-1": 0.0095, "5-2": 0.0056, "5-3": 0.0022, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0024, "6-1": 0.0029, "6-2": 0.0017, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0006, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5195, "draw": 0.2325, "away_win": 0.2481 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.573, "under_2_5_goals": 0.427, "btts_yes": 0.5791, "btts_no": 0.4209, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3076, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1646 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 6.87 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.82, "GK": 6.93 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sevilla vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Sevilla 1W-4D-5L vs Osasuna over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Félix Correia, Robbie Ure, Ante Budimir", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Lucien Agoumé vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.79. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.804, "away_lambda": 1.179, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 1, "away_wins": 5, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 0.9714, "away_multiplier": 1.0286 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1084, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5195, "draw": 0.2325, "away_win": 0.2481 }, "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5195, "fair_spread": 0.625, "fair_total": 2.983, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.804, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.179, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.573, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5791, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3076, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1646, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Robbie Ure (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.3666, "probability": 0.3069, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ante Budimir (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.3972, "probability": 0.3278, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gabriel Suazo (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.254, "probability": 0.2243, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Rubén García (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.1212, "probability": 0.1141, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.983, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 798, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.6, "possession_home_pct": 52.4, "possession_away_pct": 47.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5195, "script": "Sevilla is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.62 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Osasuna must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sevilla lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Osasuna chance creation leans on Ante Budimir against Kike Salas, Andrés Castrin in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Félix Correia, Robbie Ure; bench watchlist: Lucas Stassin, Akor Adams, Dodi Lukebakio.", "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Ante Budimir; bench watchlist: Aimar Oroz, Romain Del Castillo, Raúl Moro.", "Assist usage should flow through Rubén Vargas, Gabriel Suazo, Rubén García; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sevilla tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Osasuna is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sevilla.", "Osasuna wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sevilla": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Lucien Agoumé": { "player_id": 960006, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 185, "market_value": 18500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0732, "assist_rate": 0.0548, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0615, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8713, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 55, "possession_lost": 9.6805, "dispossessed": 0.4154, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1562, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1746, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0917, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0706, "finishing_factor": 1.0248, "creation_factor": 1.0738, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421075, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1314, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0416, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0239, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416323, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1057, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416316, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0379, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 5, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1681, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3222, "combined_rank_score": 1170.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1966.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8713, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucien Agoumé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 3217 }, { "player_name": "Joshua Zirkzee", "ranking": 3218 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Vargas", "ranking": 3219 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Duro", "ranking": 3220 }, { "player_name": "Chris Führich", "ranking": 3221 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maarten Vandevoordt", "ranking": 3223 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Vasilj", "ranking": 3224 }, { "player_name": "Wouter Burger", "ranking": 3225 }, { "player_name": "Daniel James", "ranking": 3226 }, { "player_name": "Jhon Lucumí", "ranking": 3227 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Sevilla", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.567)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1272, "goals": 0.1422, "goal_rate": 0.1422, "shots_on_target": 0.527, "total_shots": 1.7539, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "key_pass": 1.157, "rating": 6.8215, "minutes": 68.81, "total_pass": 22.5304, "accurate_pass": 17.0168, "duels_won": 3.5967, "total_long_balls": 1.4127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8387, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5166, "crosses_total": 4.5376, "crosses_accurate": 0.9729, "touches": 40.5601, "possession_lost": 14.4875, "dispossessed": 0.8737, "duels_lost": 3.5039, "aerial_lost": 0.5627, "total_contest": 2.4991, "won_contest": 1.1274, "ball_recovery": 2.9687, "challenges_lost": 0.4495, "fouls": 0.6231, "fouls_drawn": 0.9592, "assists": 0.1984, "assist_rate": 0.1984, "interceptions": 0.1164, 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"crosses_total": 4.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.9729, "touches": 40.5601, "possession_lost": 14.4875, "dispossessed": 0.8737, "duels_lost": 3.5039, "aerial_lost": 0.5627, "total_contest": 2.4991, "won_contest": 1.1274, "ball_recovery": 2.9687, "challenges_lost": 0.4495, "fouls": 0.6222, "fouls_drawn": 0.9579, "assists": 0.1981, "assist_rate": 0.1981, "interceptions": 0.1162, "tackles_won": 0.5536, "tackles": 0.8488, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0803, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.047, "offsides": 0.1762, "ball_carries": 11.9522, "total_progression": 43.6804, "progressive_carries": 1.4236, "shots_off_target": 1.2269 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0014, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7646, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.5376, "after": 4.5313 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped 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"offsides": 0.1762, "ball_carries": 11.9522, "total_progression": 43.6804, "progressive_carries": 1.4236, "shots_off_target": 1.2269 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1235, "goals": 0.1379, "goal_rate": 0.1379, "shots_on_target": 0.511, "total_shots": 1.7051, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "key_pass": 1.157, "rating": 6.8215, "minutes": 68.81, "total_pass": 22.5304, "accurate_pass": 17.0168, "duels_won": 3.5967, "total_long_balls": 1.4127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8387, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5166, "crosses_total": 4.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.9729, "touches": 40.5601, "possession_lost": 14.4875, "dispossessed": 0.8737, "duels_lost": 3.5039, "aerial_lost": 0.5627, "total_contest": 2.4991, "won_contest": 1.1274, "ball_recovery": 2.9687, "challenges_lost": 0.4495, "fouls": 0.6222, "fouls_drawn": 0.9579, "assists": 0.1981, "assist_rate": 0.1981, "interceptions": 0.1162, "tackles_won": 0.5536, "tackles": 0.8488, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0803, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.1762, "ball_carries": 11.9522, "total_progression": 43.6804, "progressive_carries": 1.4236, "shots_off_target": 1.1913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.971, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.971, "skill_edge": 0.0143, "height_edge": -0.034, "attacker_skill": 0.5671, "defender_skill": 0.5353, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4449 } ], "xg_override": 0.1235 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.756, "after": 1.7051 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2269, "after": 1.1913 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5263, "after": 0.511 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1235, "goal_rate": 0.1379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.511, "total_shots": 1.7051, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "key_pass": 1.157, "rating": 6.8215, "minutes": 68.81, "total_pass": 22.5304, "accurate_pass": 17.0168, "duels_won": 3.5967, "total_long_balls": 1.4127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8387, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5166, "crosses_total": 4.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.9729, "touches": 40.5601, "possession_lost": 14.4875, "dispossessed": 0.8737, "duels_lost": 3.5039, "aerial_lost": 0.5627, "total_contest": 2.4991, "won_contest": 1.1274, "ball_recovery": 2.9687, "challenges_lost": 0.4495, "fouls": 0.6222, "fouls_drawn": 0.9579, "assist_rate": 0.1981, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1162, "tackles_won": 0.5536, "tackles": 0.8488, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0803, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0456, "offsides": 0.1762, "ball_carries": 11.9522, "total_progression": 43.6804, "progressive_carries": 1.4236, "shots_off_target": 1.1913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.971, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2021, "goal_rate": 0.1379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.511, "total_shots": 1.7051, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "key_pass": 1.157, "rating": 6.8215, "minutes": 68.81, "total_pass": 22.5304, "accurate_pass": 17.0168, "duels_won": 3.5967, "total_long_balls": 1.4127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8387, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5166, "crosses_total": 4.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.9729, "touches": 40.5601, "possession_lost": 14.4875, "dispossessed": 0.8737, "duels_lost": 3.5039, "aerial_lost": 0.5627, "total_contest": 2.4991, "won_contest": 1.1274, "ball_recovery": 2.9687, "challenges_lost": 0.4495, "fouls": 0.6222, "fouls_drawn": 0.9579, "assist_rate": 0.1981, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1162, "tackles_won": 0.5536, "tackles": 0.8488, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0803, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0746, "offsides": 0.1762, "ball_carries": 11.9522, "total_progression": 43.6804, "progressive_carries": 1.4236, "shots_off_target": 1.1913, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.971, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.083, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1235, "after": 0.2021 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1152, "after": 0.1771 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2021, "goal_rate": 0.1379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.511, "total_shots": 1.7051, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "key_pass": 1.157, "rating": 6.8215, "minutes": 68.81, "total_pass": 22.5304, "accurate_pass": 17.0168, "duels_won": 3.5967, "total_long_balls": 1.4127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8387, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5166, "crosses_total": 4.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.9729, "touches": 40.5601, "possession_lost": 14.4875, "dispossessed": 0.8737, "duels_lost": 3.5039, "aerial_lost": 0.5627, "total_contest": 2.4991, "won_contest": 1.1274, "ball_recovery": 2.9687, "challenges_lost": 0.4495, "fouls": 0.6222, "fouls_drawn": 0.9579, "assist_rate": 0.1981, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1162, "tackles_won": 0.5536, "tackles": 0.8488, "clearances": 0.5634, "blocks": 0.036, "big_chances_created": 0.0803, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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1238.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2021, "goal_rate": 0.1379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.511, "total_shots": 1.7051, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "key_pass": 1.157, "rating": 6.8215, "minutes": 68.81, "total_pass": 22.5304, "accurate_pass": 17.0168, "duels_won": 3.5967, "total_long_balls": 1.4127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8387, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.9432, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5166, "crosses_total": 4.5313, "crosses_accurate": 0.9729, "touches": 40.5601, "possession_lost": 14.4875, "dispossessed": 0.8737, "duels_lost": 3.5039, "aerial_lost": 0.5627, "total_contest": 2.4991, "won_contest": 1.1274, "ball_recovery": 2.9687, "challenges_lost": 0.4495, "fouls": 0.6222, "fouls_drawn": 0.9579, "assist_rate": 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.183, "goal_rate": 0.1379, "scorer_weight": 0.2189, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.1198, "finishing_factor": 1.083, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2021, "goal_rate": 0.1379, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.511, "total_shots": 1.7051, "expected_assists": 0.1771, "key_pass": 1.157, "rating": 6.8215, "minutes": 68.81, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9930, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "assists": 0.0848, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.078, "goal_rate": 0.078, "shots_on_target": 0.2041, "total_shots": 0.7286, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8297, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.7721, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2789, "tackles_won": 2.4212, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2789, "fouls_drawn": 0.2789, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5245 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0079)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.0774, "shots_on_target": 0.2025, "total_shots": 0.7568, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.7721, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5245 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0079, "history_matches": 6, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8612, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.8297, "after": 1.8662 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.7286, "after": 0.7568 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2789, "after": 0.2937 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2789, "after": 0.2937 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.0774, "shots_on_target": 0.2025, "total_shots": 0.7568, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.7721, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5245 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "assists": 0.0841, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.2023, "total_shots": 0.7562, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9992, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9992, "skill_edge": 0.0115, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.4629, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "market_value": 1800000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0512 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7721, "after": 0.9 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2023, "total_shots": 0.7562, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9992, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.1464, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2023, "total_shots": 0.7562, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9992, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9236 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0512, "after": 0.0838 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0952, "after": 0.1464 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.1464, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2023, "total_shots": 0.7562, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9992, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9236, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3657, "fifa_rank": 2992.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.1464, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2023, "total_shots": 0.7562, "rating": 6.9572, "minutes": 77.51, "total_pass": 33.5362, "accurate_pass": 26.757, "duels_won": 4.5723, "total_long_balls": 4.5723, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7072, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6163, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.246, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9199, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.511, "crosses_total": 1.8662, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 50.7385, "possession_lost": 13.5672, "dispossessed": 0.993, "duels_lost": 2.6509, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2767, "tackles_won": 2.4191, "tackles": 3.1353, "clearances": 1.0423, "total_contest": 1.4369, "won_contest": 0.386, "challenges_lost": 0.3281, "fouls": 0.2937, "fouls_drawn": 0.2937, "blocks": 0.386, "big_chances_created": 0.386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12.1476, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5241, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9992, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Iker Muñoz", "opponent_faced": "Iker Muñoz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0804, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9236, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0804, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "scorer_weight": 0.1047, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0573, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0866, "expected_assists": 0.1464, "assist_rate": 0.0841, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2023, "total_shots": 0.7562, "rating": 6.9572, 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0021, quality 0.519)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2075, "goals": 0.206, "goal_rate": 0.206, "shots_on_target": 0.5711, "total_shots": 1.5475, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assists": 0.1952, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3895, "xgot": 0.2106, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9764 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9700000, "quality_factor": 0.5189, "boost_factor": 1.0021, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2075, "goals": 0.206, "goal_rate": 0.206, "shots_on_target": 0.5711, "total_shots": 1.5475, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assists": 0.1952, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3895, "xgot": 0.2106, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9764 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1937, "goals": 0.1923, "goal_rate": 0.1923, "shots_on_target": 0.533, "total_shots": 1.4443, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assists": 0.1952, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3635, "xgot": 0.1966, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "skill_edge": -0.0074, "height_edge": -0.038, "attacker_skill": 0.5189, "defender_skill": 0.5353, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4449 } ], "xg_override": 0.1937 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5475, "after": 1.4443 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9764, "after": 0.9113 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5711, "after": 0.533 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3895, "after": 0.3635 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2106, "after": 0.1966 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2075, "after": 0.1937 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.206, "after": 0.1923 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1937, "goal_rate": 0.1923, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.533, "total_shots": 1.4443, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3635, "xgot": 0.1966, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3169, "goal_rate": 0.1923, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.533, "total_shots": 1.4443, "expected_assists": 0.1425, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3635, "xgot": 0.3217, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9943, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1937, "after": 0.3169 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0927, "after": 0.1425 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3169, "goal_rate": 0.1923, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.533, "total_shots": 1.4443, "expected_assists": 0.1425, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3635, "xgot": 0.3217, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9943, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3262, "fifa_rank": 2265.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3169, "goal_rate": 0.1923, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.533, "total_shots": 1.4443, "expected_assists": 0.1425, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3635, "xgot": 0.3217, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2716, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9943, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2716, "goal_rate": 0.1923, "scorer_weight": 0.3151, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.1724, "finishing_factor": 0.9943, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3169, "goal_rate": 0.1923, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.533, "total_shots": 1.4443, "expected_assists": 0.1425, "key_pass": 0.9879, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 74.84, "total_pass": 22.7522, "accurate_pass": 15.8014, "duels_won": 2.7092, "total_long_balls": 2.286, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1232, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0648, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2888, "crosses_total": 2.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.4232, "touches": 32.562, "possession_lost": 10.4801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9524, "aerial_lost": 0.8842, "total_contest": 1.5506, "won_contest": 0.9074, "ball_recovery": 3.2533, "challenges_lost": 0.6975, "fouls": 0.8935, "fouls_drawn": 0.5023, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2702, "tackles_won": 0.1659, "tackles": 0.3319, "clearances": 0.5616, "blocks": 0.6546, "big_chances_created": 0.1952, "big_chances_missed": 0.3635, "xgot": 0.3217, "offsides": 0.3226, "ball_carries": 9.718, "total_progression": 37.1167, "progressive_carries": 1.4389, "shots_off_target": 0.9113, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2716, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1328, "finishing_factor": 0.9943, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1328, "assist_rate": 0.1952, "provider_weight": 0.1781, "squad_weight_total": 1.4442, "weight_share": 0.1233, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] }, "Robbie Ure": { "player_id": 1142351, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 189, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3666, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8835, "minutes": 74, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 3.9552, "dispossessed": 1.1542, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.3297, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2298, "goals": 0.2007, "goal_rate": 0.2007, "shots_on_target": 0.7537, "total_shots": 1.9586, "expected_assists": 0.0762, "key_pass": 0.8821, "rating": 6.8835, "minutes": 73.99, "total_pass": 8.2224, "accurate_pass": 6.4506, "duels_won": 3.5804, "total_long_balls": 0.1067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "crosses_total": 0.1476, "crosses_accurate": 0.1476, "touches": 16.5663, "possession_lost": 3.9552, "dispossessed": 1.1542, "duels_lost": 6.827, "aerial_lost": 3.8081, "total_contest": 0.4994, "won_contest": 0.3518, "ball_recovery": 1.2245, "challenges_lost": 0.2542, "fouls": 1.463, "fouls_drawn": 1.8084, "assists": 0.3297, "assist_rate": 0.3297, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, 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"1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Enzo Boyomo, Alejandro Catena", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.183, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.975, "skill_edge": -0.023, "height_edge": 0.006, "attacker_skill": 0.4842, "defender_skill": 0.5353, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "market_value": 14600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6258 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "market_value": 2700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4449 } ], "xg_override": 0.2241 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9337, "after": 1.8854 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3666, "goal_rate": 0.1881, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7064, "total_shots": 1.8854, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "key_pass": 0.8821, "rating": 6.8835, "minutes": 73.99, "total_pass": 8.2224, "accurate_pass": 6.4506, "duels_won": 3.5804, "total_long_balls": 0.1067, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.6303, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1694, "crosses_total": 0.1419, "crosses_accurate": 0.1419, "touches": 16.5663, "possession_lost": 3.9552, "dispossessed": 1.1542, "duels_lost": 6.827, "aerial_lost": 3.8081, "total_contest": 0.4994, "won_contest": 0.3518, "ball_recovery": 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"params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2241, "after": 0.3666 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0762, "after": 0.1171 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"importance": 0.0221 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4317, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.7273 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3468 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.318 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.2751 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0653 } ], "others": -0.2103, "total": 2.1825, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233062, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.238173 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12067 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.110067 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.106065 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.026924 } ], "others_margin": -0.092032 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7660605907440186, "model_output": 0.7661, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4184 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.103 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0821 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0794 } ], "others": -0.172, "total": 0.7661, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.362008 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.141834 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11663 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.084115 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.081295 } ], "others_margin": -0.202459 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.36905646324157715, "model_output": 0.3691, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1433 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.052 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0149, "total": 0.3691, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.143326 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051953 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.021521 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.009434 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008893 } ], "others_margin": -0.014916 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.682164192199707, "model_output": 6.6822, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0202 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0321, "total": 6.6822, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.02019 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.019129 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.015879 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01366 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.012347 } ], "others_margin": -0.032146 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 34, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.494)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.155, "tackles": 2.5435, "tackles_won": 1.5114, "clearances": 2.1816, "aerial_won": 0.7658, "total_shots": 0.369, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 37.1297, "accurate_pass": 30.3808, "duels_won": 5.0422, "total_long_balls": 3.0482, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2299, "total_own_half_passes": 15.06, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9076, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4732, "crosses_total": 2.4761, "crosses_accurate": 0.9259, "touches": 57.8593, "possession_lost": 11.2548, "dispossessed": 0.1554, "duels_lost": 4.2693, "aerial_lost": 0.7807, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.5275, "ball_recovery": 4.0351, "challenges_lost": 1.4518, "fouls": 1.8552, "fouls_drawn": 1.0234, "blocks": 0.3396, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.1653, "shots_on_target": 0.008, "big_chances_created": 0.03, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 12.2785, "total_progression": 66.2369, "progressive_carries": 1.3375, "key_pass": 1.6401, "shots_off_target": 0.361 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7600000, "quality_factor": 0.4939, "boost_factor": 0.9996, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0151)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 2.5435, "tackles_won": 1.5083, "clearances": 2.1816, "aerial_won": 0.7658, "total_shots": 0.3683, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 37.1297, "accurate_pass": 30.3808, "duels_won": 5.0422, "total_long_balls": 3.0482, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2299, "total_own_half_passes": 15.06, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9076, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4732, "crosses_total": 2.4929, "crosses_accurate": 0.9259, "touches": 57.8593, "possession_lost": 11.2548, "dispossessed": 0.1554, "duels_lost": 4.2693, "aerial_lost": 0.7807, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.5275, "ball_recovery": 4.0351, "challenges_lost": 1.4518, "fouls": 1.8715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0227, "blocks": 0.3396, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.1653, "shots_on_target": 0.0079, "big_chances_created": 0.03, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 12.2785, "total_progression": 66.2369, "progressive_carries": 1.3375, "key_pass": 1.6401, "shots_off_target": 0.361 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0151, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.978, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.4761, "after": 2.4929 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.8552, "after": 1.8715 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 2.5435, "tackles_won": 1.5083, "clearances": 2.1816, "aerial_won": 0.7658, "total_shots": 0.3689, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 37.1297, "accurate_pass": 30.3808, "duels_won": 5.0422, "total_long_balls": 3.0482, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2299, "total_own_half_passes": 15.06, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9076, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4732, "crosses_total": 2.4929, "crosses_accurate": 0.9259, "touches": 57.8593, "possession_lost": 11.2548, "dispossessed": 0.1554, "duels_lost": 4.2693, "aerial_lost": 0.7807, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.5275, "ball_recovery": 4.0351, "challenges_lost": 1.4518, "fouls": 1.8715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0227, "blocks": 0.3396, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.1653, "shots_on_target": 0.0079, "big_chances_created": 0.03, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 12.2785, "total_progression": 66.2369, "progressive_carries": 1.3375, "key_pass": 1.6401, "shots_off_target": 0.361 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 2.5435, "tackles_won": 1.5083, "clearances": 2.1816, "aerial_won": 0.7658, "total_shots": 0.3689, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 37.1297, "accurate_pass": 30.3808, "duels_won": 5.0422, "total_long_balls": 3.0482, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2299, "total_own_half_passes": 15.06, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9076, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4732, "crosses_total": 2.4929, "crosses_accurate": 0.9259, "touches": 57.8593, "possession_lost": 11.2548, "dispossessed": 0.1554, "duels_lost": 4.2693, "aerial_lost": 0.7807, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.5275, "ball_recovery": 4.0351, "challenges_lost": 1.4518, "fouls": 1.8715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0227, "blocks": 0.3396, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0019, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.1653, "shots_on_target": 0.0079, "big_chances_created": 0.03, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 12.2785, "total_progression": 66.2369, "progressive_carries": 1.3375, "key_pass": 1.6401, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 2.5435, "tackles_won": 1.5083, "clearances": 2.1816, "aerial_won": 0.7658, "total_shots": 0.3689, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 37.1297, "accurate_pass": 30.3808, "duels_won": 5.0422, "total_long_balls": 3.0482, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2299, "total_own_half_passes": 15.06, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9076, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4732, "crosses_total": 2.4929, "crosses_accurate": 0.9259, "touches": 57.8593, "possession_lost": 11.2548, "dispossessed": 0.1554, "duels_lost": 4.2693, "aerial_lost": 0.7807, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.5275, "ball_recovery": 4.0351, "challenges_lost": 1.4518, "fouls": 1.8715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0227, "blocks": 0.3396, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0029, "expected_assists": 0.1653, "shots_on_target": 0.0079, "big_chances_created": 0.03, "xgot": 0.0009, "ball_carries": 12.2785, "total_progression": 66.2369, "progressive_carries": 1.3375, "key_pass": 1.6401, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 2.5435, "tackles_won": 1.5083, "clearances": 2.1816, "aerial_won": 0.7658, "total_shots": 0.3689, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 37.1297, "accurate_pass": 30.3808, "duels_won": 5.0422, "total_long_balls": 3.0482, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2299, "total_own_half_passes": 15.06, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9076, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4732, "crosses_total": 2.4929, "crosses_accurate": 0.9259, "touches": 57.8593, "possession_lost": 11.2548, "dispossessed": 0.1554, "duels_lost": 4.2693, "aerial_lost": 0.7807, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.5275, "ball_recovery": 4.0351, "challenges_lost": 1.4518, "fouls": 1.8715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0227, "blocks": 0.3396, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.254, "shots_on_target": 0.0079, "big_chances_created": 0.03, "xgot": 0.0015, "ball_carries": 12.2785, "total_progression": 66.2369, "progressive_carries": 1.3375, "key_pass": 1.6401, "shots_off_target": 0.361, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591, "opponent_faced": "Rubén García", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9452, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1653, "after": 0.254 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1523, "tackles": 2.5435, "tackles_won": 1.5083, "clearances": 2.1816, "aerial_won": 0.7658, "total_shots": 0.3689, "rating": 6.6822, "minutes": 88.02, "total_pass": 37.1297, "accurate_pass": 30.3808, "duels_won": 5.0422, "total_long_balls": 3.0482, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2299, "total_own_half_passes": 15.06, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.9076, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0698, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4732, "crosses_total": 2.4929, "crosses_accurate": 0.9259, "touches": 57.8593, "possession_lost": 11.2548, "dispossessed": 0.1554, "duels_lost": 4.2693, "aerial_lost": 0.7807, "total_contest": 0.6827, "won_contest": 0.5275, "ball_recovery": 4.0351, "challenges_lost": 1.4518, "fouls": 1.8715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0227, "blocks": 0.3396, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.254, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.507)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8700000, "quality_factor": 0.5071, "boost_factor": 1.0001, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goals": 0.0425, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.022, "expected_assists": 0.0349, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0345, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.022, "after": 0.036 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0349, "after": 0.0537 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0345, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3967, "fifa_rank": 3519.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0345, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0354, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0354, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "scorer_weight": 0.045, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0246, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0184, "tackles": 1.1204, "tackles_won": 0.6981, "clearances": 5.0592, "aerial_won": 1.4287, "total_shots": 0.4265, "rating": 6.7507, "minutes": 89.5, "total_pass": 43.8393, "accurate_pass": 38.0558, "duels_won": 3.0981, "total_long_balls": 6.4151, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9354, "total_own_half_passes": 26.0825, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6628, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.7568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.393, "crosses_total": 0.0222, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 55.5212, "possession_lost": 6.3969, "dispossessed": 0.0305, "duels_lost": 2.0412, "aerial_lost": 1.1118, "total_contest": 0.3594, "won_contest": 0.3318, "ball_recovery": 3.9671, "challenges_lost": 0.2481, "fouls": 0.6658, "fouls_drawn": 0.5391, "blocks": 0.4884, "goal_rate": 0.0425, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.036, "expected_assists": 0.0537, "shots_on_target": 0.1824, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0345, "ball_carries": 14.6947, "total_progression": 62.7328, "progressive_carries": 0.918, "key_pass": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.2441, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0354, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0523, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.043, "squad_weight_total": 1.4442, "weight_share": 0.0297, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] }, "Juan Iglesias": { "player_id": 949707, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 185, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 58, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "goals": 0, 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"model_output": 6.8079, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 6.8079, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.018295 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017353 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.015745 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.014954 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012757 } ], "others_margin": -0.009737 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 45, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goals": 0.0816, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "assists": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0404, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goals": 0.0816, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "assists": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0404, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goals": 0.0816, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "assists": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0404, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0404, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.1365, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0661, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0431, "after": 0.0705 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0888, "after": 0.1365 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.1365, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0661, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3199, "fifa_rank": 1977.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.1365, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0661, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562, "opponent_faced": "Jonathan Dubasin", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0681, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "scorer_weight": 0.0881, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9489, "tackles": 2.5244, "tackles_won": 1.5465, "clearances": 3.2902, "aerial_won": 1.1112, "total_shots": 0.8444, "rating": 6.8079, "minutes": 87.18, "total_pass": 27.702, "accurate_pass": 19.3137, "duels_won": 6.9267, "total_long_balls": 6.0452, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7546, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7233, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9787, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1392, "crosses_total": 3.5513, "crosses_accurate": 0.7444, "touches": 57.8036, "possession_lost": 16.5663, "dispossessed": 0.7545, "duels_lost": 4.4882, "aerial_lost": 0.9908, "total_contest": 1.342, "won_contest": 0.8945, "ball_recovery": 3.1449, "challenges_lost": 1.2732, "fouls": 1.1647, "fouls_drawn": 1.4587, "blocks": 0.2792, "goal_rate": 0.0816, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0058, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.1365, "shots_on_target": 0.3415, "big_chances_created": 0.0278, "xgot": 0.0661, "ball_carries": 10.213, "total_progression": 34.9637, "progressive_carries": 0.7429, "key_pass": 0.5802, "shots_off_target": 0.5029, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, 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"effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "player_id": 138149, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1985, "shots_faced": 11.2, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper 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"margin": -0.017997 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.014263 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.01224 } ], "others_margin": -0.008145 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.865468978881836, "model_output": 6.8655, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0307 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0286 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0168 } ], "others": -0.0494, "total": 6.8655, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.030654 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028633 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.028562 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.027891 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016845 } ], "others_margin": -0.049532 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0195, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0598, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Sevilla" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1985, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.1985 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1985, "shots_faced": 11.4, "expected_saves": 2.79, "high_pressure_saves": 0.96, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1985, "shots_faced": 11.2, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.4, "after": 11.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.79, "after": 2.74 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.96, "after": 0.94 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1985, "shots_faced": 11.2, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1276, "fifa_rank": 951.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, "aerial_won": 0.4374, "sweeper_actions": 0.3937, "sweeper_accurate": 0.3937, "saves_inside_box": 1.2833, "possession_lost": 10.5414, "duels_won": 0.5066, "duels_lost": 0.1504, "total_contest": 0.0095, "won_contest": 0.0095, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.059, "total_own_half_passes": 9.7256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.5646, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.1985, "shots_faced": 11.2, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.94, "opponent_faced": "Ante Budimir, Jonathan Dubasin", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0238, "goals_prevented": -0.0539, "rating": 6.8655, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 23.5945, "accurate_pass": 13.1196, "total_long_balls": 17.3641, "accurate_long_balls": 7.0147, "touches": 31.8885, "clearances": 1.4945, "ball_recovery": 7.5942, "high_claims": 0.5985, "punches": 1.3316, 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"weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Fran González": { "player_id": 1493226, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 199, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.022, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 4, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0146, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1171, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7547 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0207 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": 0.0438, "total": 0.7766, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.793643 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.188326 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.030971 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028023 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02287 } ], "others_margin": 0.057964 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.161279559135437, "model_output": 0.1613, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0804 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0232 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0073 } ], "others": -0.0086, "total": 0.1613, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.188521 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080417 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023165 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009168 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.007326 } ], "others_margin": -0.008663 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727471351623535, "model_output": 6.7275, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": 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"history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9983, quality 0.495)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3896, "tackles": 0.4876, "tackles_won": 0.2537, "clearances": 1.6324, "aerial_won": 0.7753, "total_shots": 0.161, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 30.119, "accurate_pass": 23.1123, "duels_won": 2.6262, "total_long_balls": 5.2554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9543, "total_own_half_passes": 18.045, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8489, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.074, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.2634, "crosses_total": 0.1924, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.7421, "possession_lost": 8.1973, "dispossessed": 0.3133, "duels_lost": 3.3022, "aerial_lost": 0.9453, "total_contest": 0.1924, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2759, "challenges_lost": 0.6265, "fouls": 1.2246, "fouls_drawn": 0.2662, "blocks": 0.8059, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.1268, "total_progression": 25.2436, "progressive_carries": 0.4587, "key_pass": 0.2263, "shots_off_target": 0.161 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7700000, "quality_factor": 0.4951, "boost_factor": 0.9983, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0409)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3881, "tackles": 0.4876, "tackles_won": 0.2481, "clearances": 1.6324, "aerial_won": 0.7753, "total_shots": 0.1544, "rating": 6.7275, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 30.119, "accurate_pass": 23.1123, "duels_won": 2.6262, "total_long_balls": 5.2554, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9543, "total_own_half_passes": 18.045, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.8489, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.074, 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"margin": -0.055466 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.05194 } ], "others_margin": 0.131179 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8907433152198792, "model_output": 0.8907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4673 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0914 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0815 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0648 } ], "others": 0.0714, "total": 0.8907, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.091408 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.081521 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.064759 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.064758 } ], "others_margin": 0.071446 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.923655986785889, "model_output": 6.9237, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0972 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0727 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.064 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0267 } ], "others": -0.0186, "total": 6.9237, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.097235 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072711 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063958 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028094 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026695 } ], "others_margin": -0.018623 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.838, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0.172, "assist_rate": 0.172, "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1086, "shots_on_target": 0.248, "total_shots": 0.9031, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 36.579, "accurate_pass": 31.5922, "duels_won": 2.1098, "total_long_balls": 3.5894, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6578, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9736, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9598, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6054, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6324, "crosses_total": 5.2334, "crosses_accurate": 2.6578, "touches": 55.622, "possession_lost": 15.3714, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 3.6716, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4658, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.644, "won_contest": 0.548, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.4796, "fouls_drawn": 1.5618, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.548, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1707, "shots_off_target": 0.6551 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.2036, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1839, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.2036, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.08, "after": 0.0683 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0947, "after": 0.076 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1077, "fifa_rank": 774.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.064, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.064, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "scorer_weight": 0.0854, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0467, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.064, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0707, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.679658 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.180518 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.124645 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.028652 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026386 } ], "others_margin": -0.016065 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.709078311920166, "model_output": 0.7091, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4747 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1586 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0336 } ], "others": 0.0035, "total": 0.7091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.474744 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.158553 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040822 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.036805 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.033562 } ], "others_margin": 0.003581 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.752585411071777, "model_output": 6.7526, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0633 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 } ], "others": -0.0197, "total": 6.7526, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030005 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024521 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014592 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010535 } ], "others_margin": -0.019676 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0012, quality 0.528)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4963, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "assists": 0.0686, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0817, "goal_rate": 0.0817, "shots_on_target": 0.2041, "total_shots": 0.7099, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 24.43, "total_pass": 12.0939, "accurate_pass": 9.4231, "duels_won": 1.2577, "total_long_balls": 0.8748, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3695, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0592, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.4965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.3639, "crosses_total": 2.8225, "crosses_accurate": 0.7153, "touches": 20.6104, "possession_lost": 5.9086, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.1082, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1153, "tackles_won": 0.4529, "tackles": 0.5363, "clearances": 0.0981, 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"accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4624, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.33, "projection_minutes": 24.43, "minutes_scale": 0.9141, "appearance_probability": 0.515 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4537, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assists": 0.0627, "assist_rate": 0.0627, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.1866, "total_shots": 0.649, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4624, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4537, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0627, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1866, "total_shots": 0.649, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, 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0.515, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4537, "expected_assists": 0.0528, "assist_rate": 0.0627, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1866, "total_shots": 0.649, "rating": 6.7526, "minutes": 22.33, "total_pass": 11.0554, "accurate_pass": 8.6139, "duels_won": 1.1497, "total_long_balls": 0.7997, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3378, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2885, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7965, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.7669, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8174, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.6539, "touches": 18.8405, "possession_lost": 5.4012, "dispossessed": 0.3731, "duels_lost": 1.013, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2648, "interceptions": 0.1054, "tackles_won": 0.414, "tackles": 0.4902, "clearances": 0.0897, "total_contest": 0.2003, "won_contest": 0.2003, "challenges_lost": 0.1987, "fouls": 0.2482, "fouls_drawn": 0.4592, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0135, "ball_carries": 6.1643, "total_progression": 25.9353, "progressive_carries": 1.3993, "shots_off_target": 0.4624, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.515, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.33, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3838, "fifa_rank": 3498.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } } ] }, "Lucas Stassin": { "player_id": 1126521, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 184, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 24, 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true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416343, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3319, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416330, "match_date": "2026-09-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": 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"aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3440, "combined_rank_score": 1429.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6868, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Stassin", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sebastiaan Bornauw", "ranking": 3435 }, { "player_name": "Lorenzo Melgarejo", "ranking": 3436 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Chorý", "ranking": 3437 }, { "player_name": "Ferran Jutglà", "ranking": 3438 }, { "player_name": "César Tárrega", "ranking": 3439 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nelson Deossa", "ranking": 3441 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Nwaneri", "ranking": 3444 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Martínez Quarta", "ranking": 3445 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0093, "total": 0.0193, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744073, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.341705 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.166469 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.12802 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096359 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.081458 } ], "others_margin": -0.388462 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.30698731541633606, "model_output": 0.307, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1455 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2651 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": -0.0273, "total": 0.307, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.487714 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.078441 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.052426 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.051257 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.049779 } ], "others_margin": -0.085529 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6867899894714355, "model_output": 6.6868, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0696 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0138 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0623, "total": 6.6868, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069626 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013822 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": 0.013275 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.010669 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010065 } ], "others_margin": -0.062259 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.4233, "total_shots": 0.8953, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.3112, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 27.46, "total_pass": 11.2139, "accurate_pass": 8.0042, "duels_won": 3.4527, "total_long_balls": 0.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0848, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3348, "crosses_total": 0.2298, "crosses_accurate": 0.2298, "touches": 20.8022, "possession_lost": 6.7633, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.8911, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1957, "won_contest": 0.6955, "ball_recovery": 1.2363, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.6361, "fouls_drawn": 0.8183, "assists": 0.3181, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2703, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0136, "xgot": 0.2882, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7961, "total_progression": 24.976, "progressive_carries": 0.5408, "shots_off_target": 0.472 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15700000, "quality_factor": 0.5868, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.5 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assists": 0.2998, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 27.46, "minutes_scale": 0.9426, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assists": 0.2998, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3440, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0898, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "scorer_weight": 0.0955, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0523, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0898, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0165, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "provider_weight": 0.0209, "squad_weight_total": 1.4442, "weight_share": 0.0145, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] }, "Akor Adams": { "player_id": 946381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 190, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.1034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { 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-0.0197, "total": 0.3225, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.459052 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0915 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.05071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047726 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.04771 } ], "others_margin": -0.058999 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.667953014373779, "model_output": 6.668, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0672 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0538, "total": 6.668, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067165 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01439 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012996 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.009093 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.007725 } ], "others_margin": -0.053938 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1434, "goals": 0.1363, "goal_rate": 0.1363, "shots_on_target": 0.3966, "total_shots": 1.0074, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "key_pass": 0.3235, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 24.99, "total_pass": 6.7352, "accurate_pass": 3.5376, "duels_won": 1.8189, "total_long_balls": 0.3137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7288, "crosses_total": 0.2304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.2001, "possession_lost": 5.1875, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.8832, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2741, "won_contest": 0.1798, "ball_recovery": 0.7155, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0801, "tackles": 0.0801, "clearances": 0.5933, "blocks": 0.1109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3764, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.4534, "total_progression": 10.0699, "progressive_carries": 0.7362, "shots_off_target": 0.6108 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.024, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.84, "projection_minutes": 24.99, "minutes_scale": 1.0339, "appearance_probability": 0.583 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.024, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.024, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.583 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1483, "after": 0.1415 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3563, "fifa_rank": 2356.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "scorer_weight": 0.1362, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0745, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0172, "squad_weight_total": 1.4442, "weight_share": 0.0119, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Lucas Stassin": { "player_id": 1126521, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 184, "market_value": 15700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 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output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.587)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1079, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.4233, "total_shots": 0.8953, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "key_pass": 0.3112, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 27.46, "total_pass": 11.2139, "accurate_pass": 8.0042, "duels_won": 3.4527, "total_long_balls": 0.2298, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2298, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0848, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.3348, "crosses_total": 0.2298, "crosses_accurate": 0.2298, "touches": 20.8022, "possession_lost": 6.7633, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.8911, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1957, "won_contest": 0.6955, "ball_recovery": 1.2363, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.6361, "fouls_drawn": 0.8183, "assists": 0.3181, "assist_rate": 0.3181, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2703, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 1.0136, "xgot": 0.2882, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.7961, "total_progression": 24.976, "progressive_carries": 0.5408, "shots_off_target": 0.472 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15700000, "quality_factor": 0.5868, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.5 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assists": 0.2998, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 27.46, "minutes_scale": 0.9426, "appearance_probability": 0.586 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goals": 0.0986, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assists": 0.2998, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1017, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2717, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.586 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3440, "fifa_rank": 2751.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0898, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "scorer_weight": 0.0955, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0523, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.0986, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.399, "total_shots": 0.8439, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.2933, "rating": 6.6868, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 10.5701, "accurate_pass": 7.5447, "duels_won": 3.2545, "total_long_balls": 0.2166, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2166, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0285, "crosses_total": 0.2166, "crosses_accurate": 0.2166, "touches": 19.608, "possession_lost": 6.375, "dispossessed": 0.4251, "duels_lost": 3.6677, "aerial_lost": 1.9045, "total_contest": 1.1271, "won_contest": 0.6556, "ball_recovery": 1.1653, "challenges_lost": 0.4251, "fouls": 0.5996, "fouls_drawn": 0.7713, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2548, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.9554, "xgot": 0.2605, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5208, "total_progression": 23.5422, "progressive_carries": 0.5098, "shots_off_target": 0.4449, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0898, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0165, "finishing_factor": 0.9796, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.2998, "provider_weight": 0.0209, "squad_weight_total": 1.4442, "weight_share": 0.0145, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.586, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] }, "Akor Adams": { "player_id": 946381, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 190, "market_value": 14600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0293, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.125, "expected_assists": 0.1034, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083265, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 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-0.0197, "total": 0.3225, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.459052 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.0915 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.05071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047726 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.04771 } ], "others_margin": -0.058999 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.667953014373779, "model_output": 6.668, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0672 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0538, "total": 6.668, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067165 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01439 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012996 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.009093 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.007725 } ], "others_margin": -0.053938 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1434, "goals": 0.1363, "goal_rate": 0.1363, "shots_on_target": 0.3966, "total_shots": 1.0074, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "key_pass": 0.3235, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 24.99, "total_pass": 6.7352, "accurate_pass": 3.5376, "duels_won": 1.8189, "total_long_balls": 0.3137, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1535, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0562, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7288, "crosses_total": 0.2304, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.2001, "possession_lost": 5.1875, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.8832, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2741, "won_contest": 0.1798, "ball_recovery": 0.7155, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5016, "fouls_drawn": 0.1109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0801, "tackles": 0.0801, "clearances": 0.5933, "blocks": 0.1109, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3764, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.4534, "total_progression": 10.0699, "progressive_carries": 0.7362, "shots_off_target": 0.6108 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14600000, "quality_factor": 0.5748, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.0 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.024, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.84, "projection_minutes": 24.99, "minutes_scale": 1.0339, "appearance_probability": 0.583 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.024, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1483, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.024, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3891, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.583 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1483, "after": 0.1415 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3563, "fifa_rank": 2356.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "scorer_weight": 0.1362, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0745, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1415, "goal_rate": 0.1409, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.41, "total_shots": 1.0415, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "key_pass": 0.3345, "rating": 6.668, "minutes": 25.84, "total_pass": 6.9633, "accurate_pass": 3.6574, "duels_won": 1.8805, "total_long_balls": 0.3243, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1587, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2274, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8212, "crosses_total": 0.2382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.5794, "possession_lost": 5.3632, "dispossessed": 0.4565, "duels_lost": 1.947, "aerial_lost": 0.9252, "total_contest": 0.2834, "won_contest": 0.1859, "ball_recovery": 0.7397, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5186, "fouls_drawn": 0.1147, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0828, "tackles": 0.0828, "clearances": 0.6134, "blocks": 0.1147, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3711, "offsides": 0.4601, "ball_carries": 2.5365, "total_progression": 10.4109, "progressive_carries": 0.7611, "shots_off_target": 0.6315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.583, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1256, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "finishing_factor": 0.9627, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0211, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0172, "squad_weight_total": 1.4442, "weight_share": 0.0119, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.583, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] }, "Dodi Lukebakio": { "player_id": 823631, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 14100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 31, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, 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"model_output": 0.8907, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4673 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0914 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0815 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0648 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0648 } ], "others": 0.0714, "total": 0.8907, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.467258 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.091408 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.081521 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.064759 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.063958 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028094 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.026695 } ], "others_margin": -0.018623 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.838, "expected_assists": 0.08, "assists": 0.172, "assist_rate": 0.172, "expected_goals": 0.0676, "goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1086, "shots_on_target": 0.248, "total_shots": 0.9031, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 36.579, "accurate_pass": 31.5922, "duels_won": 2.1098, "total_long_balls": 3.5894, "accurate_long_balls": 2.6578, "total_own_half_passes": 9.9736, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.9598, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.6054, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.6324, "crosses_total": 5.2334, "crosses_accurate": 2.6578, "touches": 55.622, "possession_lost": 15.3714, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 3.6716, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4658, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.644, "won_contest": 0.548, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.4796, "fouls_drawn": 1.5618, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.548, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1707, "shots_off_target": 0.6551 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.2036, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1839, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assists": 0.2036, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.0947, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2021, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.80 (squad xG sum 1.1026, xG scale 1.6361, xA scale 1.5373, team xA 1.44 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.804, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1026, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9388, "team_expected_assists": 1.4432, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6361, "xa_scale": 1.5373, "opponent_lambda": 1.179, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.08, "after": 0.0683 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0947, "after": 0.076 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1077, "fifa_rank": 774.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.064, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.064, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "scorer_weight": 0.0854, "squad_weight_total": 1.8275, "weight_share": 0.0467, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Robbie Ure", "weight": 0.3185, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3185, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3151 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Félix Correia", "weight": 0.3151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3151, "runner_up": "Youssouf Fofana", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2473 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9921, "expected_assists": 0.076, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0683, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2936, "total_shots": 1.0692, "rating": 6.9237, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 43.3065, "accurate_pass": 37.4025, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 4.2495, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1466, "total_own_half_passes": 11.8079, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.6077, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.4986, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.7949, "crosses_total": 6.1959, "crosses_accurate": 3.1466, "touches": 65.8518, "possession_lost": 18.1985, "dispossessed": 1.0138, "duels_lost": 4.3469, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5515, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.9464, "won_contest": 0.6488, "challenges_lost": 0.548, "fouls": 1.7517, "fouls_drawn": 1.849, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6488, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1726, "shots_off_target": 0.7756, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.522, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.064, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0707, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0707, "assist_rate": 0.2036, "provider_weight": 0.095, "squad_weight_total": 1.4442, "weight_share": 0.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén Vargas", "weight": 0.2214, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2214, "runner_up": "Gabriel Suazo", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2032 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "weight": 0.2032, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2032, "runner_up": "Félix Correia", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1781 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.8, "expected_assists": 1.44, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 400, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } }, "Osasuna": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Aitor Fernández": { "player_id": 99516, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 182, "market_value": 375000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0231, "rating": 6.9339, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.4414, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 11.9835, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.7374, "shots_faced": 17.1, "expected_saves": 4.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.44, "opponent_faced": "Robbie Ure, Félix Correia", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0108 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": 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"items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1498 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0582 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0171, "total": 0.7285, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.149835 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058158 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.02252 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.022353 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.014247 } ], "others_margin": -0.017158 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.738549709320068, "model_output": 6.7385, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 6.7386, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028863 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020255 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014669 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013534 } ], "others_margin": -0.02247 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.171, "tackles": 1.6691, "tackles_won": 1.0595, "clearances": 2.6196, "aerial_won": 0.8288, "total_shots": 0.7266, "rating": 6.7385, "minutes": 86.18, "total_pass": 33.2342, "accurate_pass": 27.5811, "duels_won": 3.7927, "total_long_balls": 3.6647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1767, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7497, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3916, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1895, "crosses_total": 1.7252, "crosses_accurate": 0.727, "touches": 56.1827, "possession_lost": 10.1669, "dispossessed": 0.788, "duels_lost": 3.176, "aerial_lost": 0.6339, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 1.0137, "ball_recovery": 4.2604, "challenges_lost": 0.455, "fouls": 0.9085, "fouls_drawn": 0.7362, "blocks": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.0353, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0014, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "big_chances_created": 0.1244, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 14.3474, "total_progression": 65.489, "progressive_carries": 1.6931, "key_pass": 0.8044, "shots_off_target": 0.6368, "opponent_faced": "Robbie Ure", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.171, "tackles": 1.6691, "tackles_won": 1.0595, "clearances": 2.6196, "aerial_won": 0.8288, "total_shots": 0.7266, "rating": 6.7385, "minutes": 86.18, "total_pass": 33.2342, "accurate_pass": 27.5811, "duels_won": 3.7927, "total_long_balls": 3.6647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1767, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7497, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3916, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4845, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1895, "crosses_total": 1.7252, "crosses_accurate": 0.727, "touches": 56.1827, "possession_lost": 10.1669, "dispossessed": 0.788, "duels_lost": 3.176, "aerial_lost": 0.6339, "total_contest": 1.406, "won_contest": 1.0137, "ball_recovery": 4.2604, "challenges_lost": 0.455, "fouls": 0.9085, "fouls_drawn": 0.7362, "blocks": 0.3644, "goal_rate": 0.0353, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0014, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0366, "expected_assists": 0.0748, "shots_on_target": 0.0898, "big_chances_created": 0.1244, "xgot": 0.0203, "ball_carries": 14.3474, "total_progression": 65.489, "progressive_carries": 1.6931, "key_pass": 0.8044, "shots_off_target": 0.6368, "opponent_faced": "Robbie Ure", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0095, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0586 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0439, "total": 0.4668, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05856 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.01779 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014697 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.010017 } ], "others_margin": -0.04382 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.764665126800537, "model_output": 6.7647, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0093 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0072 } ], "others": 0.0222, "total": 6.7647, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015597 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011869 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.009277 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008986 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.007173 } ], "others_margin": 0.022051 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0027, quality 0.575)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9552, "tackles": 1.4157, "tackles_won": 0.882, "clearances": 4.959, "aerial_won": 1.4623, "total_shots": 0.4681, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 41.9349, "accurate_pass": 37.9129, "duels_won": 2.5415, "total_long_balls": 4.1288, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2331, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.4347, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4782, "crosses_total": 0.1586, "crosses_accurate": 0.0039, "touches": 53.3128, "possession_lost": 4.9317, "dispossessed": 0.2188, "duels_lost": 2.462, "aerial_lost": 1.0528, "total_contest": 0.2083, "won_contest": 0.1185, "ball_recovery": 3.6448, "challenges_lost": 0.1234, "fouls": 1.0031, "fouls_drawn": 0.0869, "blocks": 0.3523, "goals": 0.0081, 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0.0081, "assists": 0.0786, "assist_rate": 0.0786, "expected_goals": 0.0322, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "shots_on_target": 0.1469, "big_chances_created": 0.0014, "xgot": 0.0204, "ball_carries": 13.6242, "total_progression": 27.8246, "progressive_carries": 0.3388, "key_pass": 0.2631, "shots_off_target": 0.3207 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.952, "tackles": 1.4157, "tackles_won": 0.8897, "clearances": 4.959, "aerial_won": 1.4623, "total_shots": 0.4676, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 41.9349, "accurate_pass": 37.9129, "duels_won": 2.5415, "total_long_balls": 4.1288, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2331, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.4347, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4782, "crosses_total": 0.1581, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Robbie Ure", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.952, "tackles": 1.4157, "tackles_won": 0.8897, "clearances": 4.959, "aerial_won": 1.4623, "total_shots": 0.4676, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 41.9349, "accurate_pass": 37.9129, "duels_won": 2.5415, "total_long_balls": 4.1288, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2331, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.4347, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4782, "crosses_total": 0.1581, "crosses_accurate": 0.0039, "touches": 53.3128, "possession_lost": 4.9317, "dispossessed": 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0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.952, "tackles": 1.4157, "tackles_won": 0.8897, "clearances": 4.959, "aerial_won": 1.4623, "total_shots": 0.4676, "rating": 6.7647, "minutes": 85.78, "total_pass": 41.9349, "accurate_pass": 37.9129, "duels_won": 2.5415, "total_long_balls": 4.1288, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2331, "total_own_half_passes": 28.4067, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.4347, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4782, "crosses_total": 0.1581, "crosses_accurate": 0.0039, "touches": 53.3128, "possession_lost": 4.9317, "dispossessed": 0.2188, "duels_lost": 2.462, "aerial_lost": 1.0528, "total_contest": 0.2083, "won_contest": 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{ "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0116 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 6.8457, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033095 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023439 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015861 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013747 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011556 } ], "others_margin": -0.024903 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "assists": 0.0916, "assist_rate": 0.0916, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goals": 0.0486, "goal_rate": 0.0486, "shots_on_target": 0.1384, "total_shots": 0.5073, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5794, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.4963, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7701, "tackles_won": 0.6814, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.8985, "fouls_drawn": 1.4203, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.3689 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0117)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "assists": 0.0905, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.1368, "total_shots": 0.5014, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.4963, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.3689 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0117, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8548, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5794, "after": 1.5659 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6814, "after": 0.6734 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.7701, "after": 0.7761 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5073, "after": 0.5014 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8985, "after": 0.893 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "assists": 0.0905, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "shots_on_target": 0.1368, "total_shots": 0.5057, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.4963, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.3689 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "assists": 0.0905, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.0382, "shots_on_target": 0.1089, "total_shots": 0.4025, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.2936, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.796, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.796, "skill_edge": -0.0948, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.648, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "market_value": 18500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.648 } ], "xg_override": 0.0244 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4963, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5057, "after": 0.4025 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3689, "after": 0.2936 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1368, "after": 0.1089 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.048, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0307, "after": 0.0244 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.1121, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0382, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1089, "total_shots": 0.4025, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.002, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.2936, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.796, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0382, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1089, "total_shots": 0.4025, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.2936, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.796, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1855, "creation_factor": 0.8667 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1121, "after": 0.119 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0382, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1089, "total_shots": 0.4025, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.2936, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.796, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1855, "creation_factor": 0.8667, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3212, "fifa_rank": 1951.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0382, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1089, "total_shots": 0.4025, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.2936, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.796, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Lucien Agoumé", "opponent_faced": "Lucien Agoumé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0256, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1855, "creation_factor": 0.8667, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0256, "goal_rate": 0.0382, "scorer_weight": 0.0307, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.0245, "finishing_factor": 1.1855, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4476, "expected_assists": 0.119, "assist_rate": 0.0905, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0259, "goal_rate": 0.0382, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1089, "total_shots": 0.4025, "rating": 7.0528, "minutes": 76.93, "total_pass": 43.6749, "accurate_pass": 37.1364, "duels_won": 4.2943, "total_long_balls": 5.0519, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2415, "total_own_half_passes": 16.5089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5557, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.1661, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.5808, "crosses_total": 1.5659, "crosses_accurate": 0.6129, "touches": 55.5894, "possession_lost": 9.4718, "dispossessed": 0.2456, "duels_lost": 2.6786, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.4412, "interceptions": 0.7761, "tackles_won": 0.6734, "tackles": 1.4576, "clearances": 0.6646, "total_contest": 1.6428, "won_contest": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.5848, "fouls": 0.893, "fouls_drawn": 1.4237, "blocks": 0.1345, "big_chances_created": 0.2358, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 17.5862, "total_progression": 44.1562, "progressive_carries": 1.325, "shots_off_target": 0.2936, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.796, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.268 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.117 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0411 } ], "others": -0.0511, "total": 0.6412, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.268028 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.116953 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057665 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042031 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.041108 } ], "others_margin": -0.050991 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.78532600402832, "model_output": 6.7853, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 43, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1156, "goals": 0.1727, "goal_rate": 0.1727, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "total_shots": 1.2539, "expected_assists": 0.1141, "key_pass": 1.4159, "rating": 6.7869, "minutes": 72.41, "total_pass": 23.8262, "accurate_pass": 19.3669, "duels_won": 3.9528, "total_long_balls": 2.9113, "accurate_long_balls": 2.352, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1816, "crosses_total": 4.5824, "crosses_accurate": 1.5581, "touches": 40.2323, "possession_lost": 9.8083, "dispossessed": 0.409, "duels_lost": 4.5037, "aerial_lost": 1.3541, "total_contest": 0.9859, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 2.8414, "challenges_lost": 0.5996, "fouls": 1.6571, "fouls_drawn": 0.7963, "assists": 0.137, "assist_rate": 0.137, "interceptions": 0.4639, 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1036, "goal_rate": 0.1536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3967, "total_shots": 1.1282, "expected_assists": 0.1141, "key_pass": 1.4159, "rating": 6.7869, "minutes": 72.41, "total_pass": 23.8262, "accurate_pass": 19.3669, "duels_won": 3.9528, "total_long_balls": 2.9113, "accurate_long_balls": 2.352, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1816, "crosses_total": 4.5906, "crosses_accurate": 1.5581, "touches": 40.2323, "possession_lost": 9.8083, "dispossessed": 0.409, "duels_lost": 4.5037, "aerial_lost": 1.3541, "total_contest": 0.9859, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 2.8414, "challenges_lost": 0.5996, "fouls": 1.6518, "fouls_drawn": 0.7939, "assist_rate": 0.136, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.464, "tackles_won": 1.1652, "tackles": 2.0042, 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0.1036, "after": 0.11 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1141, "after": 0.1212 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goal_rate": 0.1536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3967, "total_shots": 1.1282, "expected_assists": 0.1212, "key_pass": 1.4159, "rating": 6.7869, "minutes": 72.41, "total_pass": 23.8262, "accurate_pass": 19.3669, "duels_won": 3.9528, "total_long_balls": 2.9113, "accurate_long_balls": 2.352, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1816, "crosses_total": 4.5906, "crosses_accurate": 1.5581, "touches": 40.2323, "possession_lost": 9.8083, "dispossessed": 0.409, "duels_lost": 4.5037, "aerial_lost": 1.3541, "total_contest": 0.9859, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 2.8414, "challenges_lost": 0.5996, "fouls": 1.6518, "fouls_drawn": 0.7939, "assist_rate": 0.136, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.464, "tackles_won": 1.1652, "tackles": 2.0042, "clearances": 1.3692, "blocks": 0.1009, "big_chances_created": 0.3551, "big_chances_missed": 0.1138, 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.11, "goal_rate": 0.1536, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3967, "total_shots": 1.1282, "expected_assists": 0.1212, "key_pass": 1.4159, "rating": 6.7869, "minutes": 72.41, "total_pass": 23.8262, "accurate_pass": 19.3669, "duels_won": 3.9528, "total_long_balls": 2.9113, "accurate_long_balls": 2.352, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5068, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1816, "crosses_total": 4.5906, "crosses_accurate": 1.5581, "touches": 40.2323, "possession_lost": 9.8083, "dispossessed": 0.409, "duels_lost": 4.5037, "aerial_lost": 1.3541, "total_contest": 0.9859, "won_contest": 0.4661, "ball_recovery": 2.8414, "challenges_lost": 0.5996, "fouls": 1.6518, "fouls_drawn": 0.7939, "assist_rate": 0.136, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.464, 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Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Kike Salas, Andrés Castrin", "opponent_faced": "Kike Salas, Andrés Castrin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3278, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0351, "finishing_factor": 1.211, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9346, "expected_assists": 0.0879, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.6134, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 7, "duels_won": 14, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.0584, "total_shots": 1, 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"accuratePass", "importance": 0.126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1821 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0452 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0303 } ], "others": -0.0866, "total": 0.5889, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.235175 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.07976 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.066008 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.062062 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043946 } ], "others_margin": -0.13717 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.86768913269043, "model_output": 6.8677, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0923 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0551 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0251 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": -0.0179, "total": 6.8677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.092292 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055082 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.030428 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.025094 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.02288 } ], "others_margin": -0.017888 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 42, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4078, "goals": 0.5018, "goal_rate": 0.5018, "shots_on_target": 1.0228, "total_shots": 2.5428, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "key_pass": 0.5877, "rating": 6.8677, "minutes": 87.02, "total_pass": 11.4184, "accurate_pass": 7.1177, "duels_won": 6.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.2586, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1226, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5206, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.05, "crosses_total": 0.1033, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 26.6489, "possession_lost": 9.4929, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 6.5511, "aerial_lost": 2.8823, "total_contest": 1.6361, "won_contest": 0.8864, "ball_recovery": 1.7895, "challenges_lost": 0.3379, "fouls": 1.8813, "fouls_drawn": 1.4814, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0535, "tackles_won": 0.6885, "tackles": 0.9452, "clearances": 1.161, "blocks": 0.2385, "big_chances_created": 0.0912, "big_chances_missed": 0.654, "xgot": 0.6971, "offsides": 0.7474, "ball_carries": 5.9673, "total_progression": 11.5663, "progressive_carries": 0.7377, "shots_off_target": 1.52 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4078, "goals": 0.5053, "goal_rate": 0.5053, "shots_on_target": 1.0334, "total_shots": 2.5553, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "key_pass": 0.5877, "rating": 6.8677, "minutes": 87.02, "total_pass": 11.4184, "accurate_pass": 7.1177, "duels_won": 6.9424, "total_long_balls": 0.2586, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1226, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.5206, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.05, "crosses_total": 0.1064, 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average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2292, "goals": 0.2318, "goal_rate": 0.2318, "shots_on_target": 0.637, "total_shots": 1.897, "expected_assists": 0.082, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.2794, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.6659, "fouls_drawn": 0.3286, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.2739, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3866, "xgot": 0.6176, "offsides": 0.7732, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.26 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4300000, "quality_factor": 0.4535, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0201)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2292, "goals": 0.2271, "goal_rate": 0.2271, "shots_on_target": 0.6369, "total_shots": 1.8841, "expected_assists": 0.082, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3866, "xgot": 0.6176, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.26 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0201, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7911, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.7732, "after": 0.7576 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.897, "after": 1.8841 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6659, "after": 0.677 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2739, "after": 1.285 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.2794, "after": 0.286 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.3286, "after": 0.3342 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2292, "goals": 0.2271, "goal_rate": 0.2271, "shots_on_target": 0.6369, "total_shots": 1.8969, "expected_assists": 0.082, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3866, "xgot": 0.6176, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.26 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2151, "goals": 0.2131, "goal_rate": 0.2131, "shots_on_target": 0.5977, "total_shots": 1.7802, "expected_assists": 0.082, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3628, "xgot": 0.5796, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.1825, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "skill_edge": -0.0219, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.4535, "defender_skill": 0.5021, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Juan Iglesias", "market_value": 5800000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5021 } ], "xg_override": 0.2151 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8969, "after": 1.7802 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.26, "after": 1.1825 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6369, "after": 0.5977 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.6176, "after": 0.5796 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3866, "after": 0.3628 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2292, "after": 0.2151 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2271, "after": 0.2131 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2151, "goal_rate": 0.2131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5977, "total_shots": 1.7802, "expected_assists": 0.082, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3628, "xgot": 0.5796, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.1825, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2283, "goal_rate": 0.2131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5977, "total_shots": 1.7802, "expected_assists": 0.087, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3628, "xgot": 0.6153, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.1825, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9925, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2151, "after": 0.2283 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2283, "goal_rate": 0.2131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5977, "total_shots": 1.7802, "expected_assists": 0.087, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3628, "xgot": 0.6153, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.1825, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9925, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2777, "fifa_rank": 1404.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2283, "goal_rate": 0.2131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5977, "total_shots": 1.7802, "expected_assists": 0.087, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3628, "xgot": 0.6153, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.1825, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2041, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9925, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2041, "goal_rate": 0.2131, "scorer_weight": 0.2266, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.181, "finishing_factor": 0.9925, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2283, "goal_rate": 0.2131, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5977, "total_shots": 1.7802, "expected_assists": 0.087, "key_pass": 0.8448, "rating": 6.7957, "minutes": 71.2, "total_pass": 24.7398, "accurate_pass": 21.4769, "duels_won": 1.5531, "total_long_balls": 1.2739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6659, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1868, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5899, "crosses_total": 0.286, "crosses_accurate": 0.2794, "touches": 42.4146, "possession_lost": 10.8748, "dispossessed": 2.1455, "duels_lost": 6.5682, "aerial_lost": 0.3866, "total_contest": 2.5969, "won_contest": 0.2794, "ball_recovery": 4.1433, "challenges_lost": 1.0525, "fouls": 0.677, "fouls_drawn": 0.3342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.285, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.6659, "clearances": 0.7151, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3628, "xgot": 0.6153, "offsides": 0.7576, "ball_carries": 10.3809, "total_progression": 44.1877, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "shots_off_target": 1.1825, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Iglesias", "opponent_faced": "Juan Iglesias", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, 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0.0508 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": -0.001, "total": 0.4064, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.120976 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050767 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028796 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.018219 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009735 } ], "others_margin": -0.001057 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.687994003295898, "model_output": 6.688, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.442)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0484, "tackles": 2.0275, "tackles_won": 1.2783, "clearances": 2.1956, "aerial_won": 0.6249, "total_shots": 0.4055, "rating": 6.688, "minutes": 88.68, "total_pass": 29.7478, "accurate_pass": 23.6437, "duels_won": 4.353, "total_long_balls": 4.5897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6513, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6855, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.958, "crosses_total": 1.7373, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 53.0203, "possession_lost": 12.7621, "dispossessed": 0.502, "duels_lost": 3.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.6561, "total_contest": 1.7334, "won_contest": 0.7738, "ball_recovery": 5.3184, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 1.114, "fouls_drawn": 0.7058, "blocks": 0.1574, "goals": 0.0088, 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1.7358, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 53.0203, "possession_lost": 12.7621, "dispossessed": 0.502, "duels_lost": 3.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.6561, "total_contest": 1.7334, "won_contest": 0.7738, "ball_recovery": 5.3184, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 1.1222, "fouls_drawn": 0.7, "blocks": 0.1574, "goals": 0.0087, "goal_rate": 0.0087, "assists": 0.041, "assist_rate": 0.041, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0666, "shots_on_target": 0.0254, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 12.4, "total_progression": 55.4931, "progressive_carries": 1.7219, "key_pass": 0.5061, "shots_off_target": 0.3797, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.472, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 2.0275, "tackles_won": 1.289, "clearances": 2.1956, "aerial_won": 0.6249, "total_shots": 0.4094, "rating": 6.688, "minutes": 88.68, "total_pass": 29.7478, "accurate_pass": 23.6437, "duels_won": 4.353, "total_long_balls": 4.5897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6513, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6855, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.958, "crosses_total": 1.7358, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 53.0203, "possession_lost": 12.7621, "dispossessed": 0.502, "duels_lost": 3.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.6561, "total_contest": 1.7334, "won_contest": 0.7738, "ball_recovery": 5.3184, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 1.1222, "fouls_drawn": 0.7, "blocks": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.0087, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0666, "shots_on_target": 0.0254, "big_chances_created": 0.0996, "xgot": 0.0076, "ball_carries": 12.4, "total_progression": 55.4931, "progressive_carries": 1.7219, "key_pass": 0.5061, "shots_off_target": 0.3797, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.472, "opponent_faced": "Youssouf Fofana", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 2.0275, "tackles_won": 1.289, "clearances": 2.1956, "aerial_won": 0.6249, "total_shots": 0.4094, "rating": 6.688, "minutes": 88.68, "total_pass": 29.7478, "accurate_pass": 23.6437, "duels_won": 4.353, "total_long_balls": 4.5897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6513, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6855, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.958, "crosses_total": 1.7358, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 53.0203, "possession_lost": 12.7621, "dispossessed": 0.502, "duels_lost": 3.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.6561, "total_contest": 1.7334, "won_contest": 0.7738, "ball_recovery": 5.3184, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, 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"team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0474, "tackles": 2.0275, "tackles_won": 1.289, "clearances": 2.1956, "aerial_won": 0.6249, "total_shots": 0.4094, "rating": 6.688, "minutes": 88.68, "total_pass": 29.7478, "accurate_pass": 23.6437, "duels_won": 4.353, "total_long_balls": 4.5897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6513, "total_own_half_passes": 13.9548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6855, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7929, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.958, "crosses_total": 1.7358, "crosses_accurate": 0.4345, "touches": 53.0203, "possession_lost": 12.7621, "dispossessed": 0.502, "duels_lost": 3.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.6561, "total_contest": 1.7334, "won_contest": 0.7738, "ball_recovery": 5.3184, "challenges_lost": 0.7912, "fouls": 1.1222, "fouls_drawn": 0.7, "blocks": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.0087, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.041, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0143, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 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"clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.6289 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416314, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2211 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16815992, "match_date": 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"Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6195 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083568, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.5435 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.321 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083231, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 23, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.8273 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1581, "combined_rank_score": 645.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 954.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9191, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergio Herrera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 1576 }, { "player_name": "Kim Dong-wook", "ranking": 1577 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Đukanović", "ranking": 1578 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 1579 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 1580 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 1582 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Digne", "ranking": 1583 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 1584 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Batalla", "ranking": 1585 }, { "player_name": "Pavel Šulc", "ranking": 1586 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", 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empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.5379, "goals_prevented": -0.1583, "rating": 6.9191, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.4357, "accurate_pass": 17.2261, "total_long_balls": 13.4559, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4239, "touches": 33.2462, "clearances": 0.9724, "ball_recovery": 7.7986, "high_claims": 0.5837, "punches": 0.7406, "aerial_won": 0.159, "sweeper_actions": 0.7422, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6845, "saves_inside_box": 0.8303, "possession_lost": 7.3371, "duels_won": 0.6943, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1276, "won_contest": 0.1276, "fouls": 0.1488, "fouls_drawn": 0.2575, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1387, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0755 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-26T10:30:09.074791+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1420, "players": 201, "rows": 7335 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-08", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-02", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-26", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6671, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.0755, "totalLongBalls": 13.4559, "commanding_index": 0.8188, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7869, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8431 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.537935972213745, "model_output": 2.5379, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0453 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.038 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9243, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1843 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0902 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.016 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0637, "total": 2.5379, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.07304, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065082 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": -0.033492 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.006888 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.006107 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.005384 } ], "others_margin": -0.024736 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.15830780565738678, "model_output": -0.1583, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0392 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0231, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0615 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0584 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0235 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0803, "total": -0.1583, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023055, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.061513 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.058416 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.02352 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.014259 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.013954 } ], "others_margin": -0.080424 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.91908597946167, "model_output": 6.9191, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0113, "total": 6.9191, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.033992 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.028829 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.025146 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.01261 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009567 } ], "others_margin": -0.011382 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5324, "goals_prevented": -0.158, "rating": 6.9191, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1485, "fouls_drawn": 0.2569, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0138)", "stats": { "saves": 2.5018, "goals_prevented": -0.158, "rating": 6.9191, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 24.3819, "accurate_pass": 17.1882, "total_long_balls": 13.4263, "accurate_long_balls": 6.4098, "touches": 33.1731, "clearances": 0.9703, "ball_recovery": 7.7814, "high_claims": 0.5824, "punches": 0.739, "aerial_won": 0.1587, "sweeper_actions": 0.7406, "sweeper_accurate": 0.683, "saves_inside_box": 0.8285, "possession_lost": 7.321, "duels_won": 0.6928, "duels_lost": 0.0226, "total_contest": 0.1273, "won_contest": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.1479, "fouls_drawn": 0.2563, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1054, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0467 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0138, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.5324, "after": 2.5018 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.3856, "goals_prevented": -0.0243, "rating": 6.9191, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, 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substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.3856, "goals_prevented": -0.0243, "rating": 6.9191, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.7576, "accurate_pass": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 2.0692, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9878, "touches": 5.1124, "clearances": 0.1495, "ball_recovery": 1.1992, "high_claims": 0.0898, "punches": 0.1139, "aerial_won": 0.0245, "sweeper_actions": 0.1141, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1053, "saves_inside_box": 0.1277, "possession_lost": 1.1283, "duels_won": 0.1068, "duels_lost": 0.0035, "total_contest": 0.0196, "won_contest": 0.0196, "fouls": 0.0228, "fouls_drawn": 0.0395, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0107, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 8, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 82, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081805, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083591, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 47, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1616, "combined_rank_score": 887.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 657.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7499, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jorge Herrando", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Piotr Parzyszek", "ranking": 1611 }, { "player_name": "Khumoyunmirzo Iminov", "ranking": 1612 }, { "player_name": "Shakhboz Juraev", "ranking": 1613 }, { "player_name": "Nika Kacharava", "ranking": 1614 }, { "player_name": "Andrej Stojchevski", "ranking": 1615 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giorgi Tsitaishvili", "ranking": 1617 }, { "player_name": "Rustambek Fomin", "ranking": 1618 }, { "player_name": "Khamidullo Abdunabiev", "ranking": 1619 }, { "player_name": "Jovani Welch", "ranking": 1620 }, { "player_name": "Orlando Galo", "ranking": 1621 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.771, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 31, "data_confidence": 0.771, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58206294284004, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.217, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9973, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Osasuna", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.14 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (31 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3211, "tackles": 0.4578, "tackles_won": 0.2587, "clearances": 1.7343, "aerial_won": 0.5583, "total_shots": 0.1223, "rating": 6.7499, "minutes": 24.44, "total_pass": 10.9264, "accurate_pass": 9.1122, "duels_won": 1.681, "total_long_balls": 1.1563, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8748, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0002, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0516, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.112, 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"Celta Vigo", "minutes": 58.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-23", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 84.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.067, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-05", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0569, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 32.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0484, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-07", "opponent": "Mallorca", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0411, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 81.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.035, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.6231, "aerialWon": 1.0444, "totalClearance_p90": 5.3846, "totalTackle": 0.76, "totalPass": 33.9673 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3211395740509033, "model_output": 0.3211, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.289 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0289 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0217 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8685, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4869 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0055 } ], "others": -0.0271, "total": 0.3211, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.140967, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.822403 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.029616 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.027598 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": -0.018876 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.015809 } ], "others_margin": -0.080609 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.4578365683555603, "model_output": 0.4578, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2458 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0642 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3857, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7404 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0231 } ], "others": -0.0805, "total": 0.4578, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.326186, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.764224 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.051578 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.045638 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.042149 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.042041 } ], "others_margin": -0.161798 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.25865447521209717, "model_output": 0.2587, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1981 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8457, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4604 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0228 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0644, "total": 0.2587, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.167585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.78601 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.060856 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.053721 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.030956 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.030043 } ], "others_margin": -0.22309 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7342970371246338, "model_output": 1.7343, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2965 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1411 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0221 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4317, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1165 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1046 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0633 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0643 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0619 } ], "others": 0.125, "total": 1.7343, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233062, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.959052 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.076502 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.043613 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042422 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.039244 } ], "others_margin": 0.074809 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5583152174949646, "model_output": 0.5583, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8002 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0937 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": 0.0439, "total": 0.5583, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.869558 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.177071 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053199 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.040063 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.031768 } ], "others_margin": 0.081946 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.12225908786058426, "model_output": 0.1223, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.197 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0795 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0396, "total": 0.1223, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.197006 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.079463 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017768 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015361 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.00689 } ], "others_margin": -0.039792 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.749882221221924, "model_output": 6.7499, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.008 } ], "others": 0.0181, "total": 6.7499, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019393 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017276 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010825 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008174 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008024 } ], "others_margin": 0.018058 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3203, "tackles": 0.4566, "tackles_won": 0.258, "clearances": 1.7296, "aerial_won": 0.5568, "total_shots": 0.122, "rating": 6.7499, "minutes": 24.44, "total_pass": 10.8969, "accurate_pass": 9.0876, "duels_won": 1.6765, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4986, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9867, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.038, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1009, "crosses_total": 0.0677, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.592, "possession_lost": 2.0485, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4025, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0937, "won_contest": 0.0937, "ball_recovery": 0.5827, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.6961, "fouls_drawn": 0.2412, "blocks": 0.3449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3115, "total_progression": 1.0372, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.122 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0126)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3212, "tackles": 0.4566, "tackles_won": 0.2564, "clearances": 1.7296, "aerial_won": 0.5568, "total_shots": 0.1238, "rating": 6.7499, "minutes": 24.44, "total_pass": 10.8969, "accurate_pass": 9.0876, "duels_won": 1.6765, "total_long_balls": 1.1532, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4986, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8589, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9867, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.038, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1009, "crosses_total": 0.0668, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.592, "possession_lost": 2.0485, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4025, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0937, "won_contest": 0.0937, "ball_recovery": 0.5827, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.6922, "fouls_drawn": 0.2414, "blocks": 0.3449, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.0033, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.3115, "total_progression": 1.0372, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.122 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2716, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.4 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1785, "tackles": 0.2537, "tackles_won": 0.1425, "clearances": 0.9612, "aerial_won": 0.3094, "total_shots": 0.0696, "rating": 6.7499, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0521, "won_contest": 0.0521, "ball_recovery": 0.3238, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.3847, "fouls_drawn": 0.1342, "blocks": 0.1917, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0018, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8403, "total_progression": 0.5764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0678, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.58, "projection_minutes": 24.44, "minutes_scale": 0.5557, "appearance_probability": 0.217 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1785, "tackles": 0.2537, "tackles_won": 0.1425, "clearances": 0.9612, "aerial_won": 0.3094, "total_shots": 0.0696, "rating": 6.7499, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0521, "won_contest": 0.0521, "ball_recovery": 0.3238, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.3847, "fouls_drawn": 0.1342, "blocks": 0.1917, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0018, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8403, "total_progression": 0.5764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0678, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1785, "tackles": 0.2537, "tackles_won": 0.1425, "clearances": 0.9612, "aerial_won": 0.3094, "total_shots": 0.0696, "rating": 6.7499, "minutes": 13.58, "total_pass": 6.0557, "accurate_pass": 5.0503, "duels_won": 0.9317, "total_long_balls": 0.6409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2771, "total_own_half_passes": 3.256, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7713, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7998, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.279, "crosses_total": 0.0371, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.665, "possession_lost": 1.1384, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.7794, "aerial_lost": 0.3254, "total_contest": 0.0521, "won_contest": 0.0521, "ball_recovery": 0.3238, "challenges_lost": 0.381, "fouls": 0.3847, "fouls_drawn": 0.1342, "blocks": 0.1917, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0017, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "shots_on_target": 0.0018, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8403, "total_progression": 0.5764, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0678, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.217, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, 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1507914, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 48, "height": 189, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.686, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 34, "possession_lost": 4.1186, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 47, 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"totalShots", "predicted": 0.1945512294769287, "model_output": 0.1946, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2003 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0945 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0174 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0164 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.1946, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.200291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.094531 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.017449 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.016418 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016387 } ], "others_margin": -0.006646 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.686038494110107, "model_output": 6.686, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0372, "total": 6.686, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017347 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013637 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011996 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011222 } ], "others_margin": -0.037064 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9873, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5023, "tackles": 0.8524, "tackles_won": 0.3916, "clearances": 1.4951, "aerial_won": 0.3838, "total_shots": 0.1921, "rating": 6.686, "minutes": 22.0, "total_pass": 39.586, "accurate_pass": 36.0935, "duels_won": 3.8762, "total_long_balls": 5.516, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4222, "total_own_half_passes": 23.2529, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.1015, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.992, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3735, "possession_lost": 6.676, "dispossessed": 0.2773, "duels_lost": 2.7422, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6524, "won_contest": 0.6524, "ball_recovery": 4.2111, "challenges_lost": 1.8038, "fouls": 0.6611, "fouls_drawn": 0.3838, "blocks": 0.3838, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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}, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083258, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3320, "combined_rank_score": 1277.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6982, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Aimar Oroz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rio Ngumoha", "ranking": 3315 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Walker-Peters", "ranking": 3316 }, { "player_name": "Alberto Costa", "ranking": 3317 }, { "player_name": "Tajon Buchanan", "ranking": 3318 }, { "player_name": "Dion Drena Beljo", "ranking": 3319 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Koulierakis", "ranking": 3321 }, { "player_name": "Óliver Torres", "ranking": 3322 }, { "player_name": "Daley Blind", "ranking": 3323 }, { "player_name": "Williot Swedberg", "ranking": 3324 }, { "player_name": "Leandro Cabrera", "ranking": 3325 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", 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"others_margin": 0.069097 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.04212846979498863, "model_output": 0.0421, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1096 }, { "name": "creative_index", "importance": 0.1004 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "totalCross", "importance": 0.0481 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0849, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "contribution": 0.0022 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.002 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0019 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0079, "total": 0.0421, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.465779, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.614584 }, { "name": "cross_creative_contribution", "margin": 0.046078 }, { "name": "creative_index", 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"others": -0.0026, "total": 0.0418, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.392179, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.561348 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.101548 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.072916 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.069128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.055143 } ], "others_margin": -0.060845 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0422859862446785, "model_output": 0.0423, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0322 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.095, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0034 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.003 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0029, "total": 0.0423, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.354031, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.514762 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.202863 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.071753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.061326 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.035087 } ], "others_margin": -0.066983 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1729128509759903, "model_output": 0.1729, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3183, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1259 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0058 } ], "others": 0.0111, "total": 0.1729, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.503618 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.216115 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.061587 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.054603 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.036372 } ], "others_margin": 0.066181 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3983488082885742, "model_output": 0.3983, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3494 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2237 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0394, "total": 0.3983, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.349445 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.22372 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.037064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032339 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017302 } ], "others_margin": 0.039507 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6981658935546875, "model_output": 6.6982, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0861 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.6982, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024045 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022127 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009839 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.009042 } ], "others_margin": -0.005895 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5852, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0588, "assist_rate": 0.0588, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.1728, "total_shots": 0.398, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.2995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1478, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6997, "fouls_drawn": 0.9804, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2252 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6900000, "quality_factor": 0.4854, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5852, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0582, "assist_rate": 0.0582, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "shots_on_target": 0.1712, "total_shots": 0.3967, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.3003, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1464, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6955, "fouls_drawn": 0.9784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2252 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2186, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.7 to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0441, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.92, "projection_minutes": 19.67, "minutes_scale": 0.7585, "appearance_probability": 0.439 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0441, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 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{ "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0763 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 6.6958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076287 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034108 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007359 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.004999 } ], "others_margin": -0.026023 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, 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(appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "projection_minutes": 17.19, "minutes_scale": 1.0553, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, 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1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0605, "creation_factor": 1.1608 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.026, "after": 0.0156 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0215, "after": 0.0129 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, 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output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.0519, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "shots_on_target": 0.2584, "total_shots": 0.54, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.2656, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 6.8808, "accurate_pass": 6.8808, "duels_won": 1.9083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "crosses_total": 1.4515, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2407, "possession_lost": 1.4515, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5375, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.457, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.457, "tackles": 0.457, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.989, "total_progression": 4.306, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2815 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.46, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3621, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1077, "after": 0.0647 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.037, "after": 0.0222 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "scorer_weight": 0.0518, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.0413, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0218, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0178, "squad_weight_total": 0.8119, "weight_share": 0.0219, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1374, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1335, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Raúl Moro": { "player_id": 980383, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 169, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 40, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0363, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.124, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0443, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0597, "expected_assists": 0.2664, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416327, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2395, "expected_assists": 0.045, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3168, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083723, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.2112, "total_shots": 0.5981, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.3792, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22.61, "total_pass": 7.8639, "accurate_pass": 6.0674, "duels_won": 1.0476, "total_long_balls": 0.5541, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2551, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3663, "crosses_total": 1.9292, "crosses_accurate": 0.214, "touches": 15.2178, "possession_lost": 5.6986, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5605, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7614, "won_contest": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 1.4184, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1765, "assists": 0.0343, "assist_rate": 0.0343, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0475, "clearances": 0.1717, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0357, "ball_carries": 6.819, "total_progression": 41.9138, "progressive_carries": 1.7901, "shots_off_target": 0.3869 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.2108, "total_shots": 0.5971, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.3792, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22.61, "total_pass": 7.8639, "accurate_pass": 6.0674, "duels_won": 1.0476, "total_long_balls": 0.5541, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2551, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3663, "crosses_total": 1.9259, "crosses_accurate": 0.214, "touches": 15.2178, "possession_lost": 5.6986, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5605, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7614, "won_contest": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 1.4184, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assists": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0342, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0475, "clearances": 0.1717, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.819, "total_progression": 41.9138, "progressive_carries": 1.7901, "shots_off_target": 0.3869 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2512, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.6 to 21.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.84, "projection_minutes": 22.61, "minutes_scale": 0.9659, "appearance_probability": 0.719 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.719 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0487, "after": 0.0372 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0448, "after": 0.0342 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3622, "fifa_rank": 2407.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0363, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "scorer_weight": 0.036, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0363, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "assist_rate": 0.033, "provider_weight": 0.0299, "squad_weight_total": 0.8119, "weight_share": 0.0369, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1374, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1335, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Raúl Moro": { "player_id": 980383, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 169, "market_value": 3300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.124, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { 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"interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3622, "combined_rank_score": 1589.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 772.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6429, "sofascore_appearances": 14.0, "fifa_rank": 2407.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6634, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raúl Moro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lukáš Červ", "ranking": 3617 }, { "player_name": "Joe Scally", "ranking": 3618 }, { "player_name": "Petros Mantalos", "ranking": 3619 }, { "player_name": 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2697 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.3806, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.498798 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077949 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.059109 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.038588 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037058 } ], "others_margin": 0.003113 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.663358688354492, "model_output": 6.6634, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0599 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.0283, "total": 6.6634, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059927 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034854 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.015168 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.013597 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01309 } ], "others_margin": -0.028377 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0472, "goal_rate": 0.0472, "shots_on_target": 0.2112, "total_shots": 0.5981, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.3792, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22.61, "total_pass": 7.8639, "accurate_pass": 6.0674, "duels_won": 1.0476, "total_long_balls": 0.5541, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2551, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3663, "crosses_total": 1.9292, "crosses_accurate": 0.214, "touches": 15.2178, "possession_lost": 5.6986, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5605, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7614, "won_contest": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 1.4184, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1765, "assists": 0.0343, "assist_rate": 0.0343, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0475, "clearances": 0.1717, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0357, "ball_carries": 6.819, "total_progression": 41.9138, "progressive_carries": 1.7901, "shots_off_target": 0.3869 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3300000, "quality_factor": 0.4412, "boost_factor": 0.9962, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0017)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0504, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.2108, "total_shots": 0.5971, "expected_assists": 0.0464, "key_pass": 0.3792, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 22.61, "total_pass": 7.8639, "accurate_pass": 6.0674, "duels_won": 1.0476, "total_long_balls": 0.5541, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2551, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8011, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.3663, "crosses_total": 1.9259, "crosses_accurate": 0.214, "touches": 15.2178, "possession_lost": 5.6986, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5605, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7614, "won_contest": 0.8236, "ball_recovery": 1.4184, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1762, "assists": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0342, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0475, "clearances": 0.1717, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0361, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.819, "total_progression": 41.9138, "progressive_carries": 1.7901, "shots_off_target": 0.3869 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0017, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2512, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.6 to 21.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.72)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 21.84, "projection_minutes": 22.61, "minutes_scale": 0.9659, "appearance_probability": 0.719 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0017, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.719 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0487, "after": 0.0372 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0448, "after": 0.0342 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3622, "fifa_rank": 2407.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0363, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "scorer_weight": 0.036, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2036, "total_shots": 0.5773, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "key_pass": 0.3663, "rating": 6.6634, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 7.5961, "accurate_pass": 5.8608, "duels_won": 1.0119, "total_long_balls": 0.5352, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2464, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.2176, "crosses_total": 1.8603, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 14.6995, "possession_lost": 5.5045, "dispossessed": 0.2643, "duels_lost": 1.5074, "aerial_lost": 0.3585, "total_contest": 1.7014, "won_contest": 0.7956, "ball_recovery": 1.3701, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1702, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0459, "clearances": 0.1659, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0349, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "offsides": 0.0356, "ball_carries": 6.5868, "total_progression": 40.4864, "progressive_carries": 1.7291, "shots_off_target": 0.3737, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.719, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.84, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0363, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "finishing_factor": 0.9676, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0334, "assist_rate": 0.033, "provider_weight": 0.0299, "squad_weight_total": 0.8119, "weight_share": 0.0369, "creation_factor": 0.8755, "appearance_weight": 0.719, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1374, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1335, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Romain Del Castillo": { "player_id": 825681, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 172, "market_value": 6400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0791, "goals": 0.0519, "goal_rate": 0.0519, "shots_on_target": 0.2584, "total_shots": 0.54, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.2656, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 18.69, "total_pass": 6.8808, "accurate_pass": 6.8808, "duels_won": 1.9083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2682, "crosses_total": 1.4515, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2407, "possession_lost": 1.4515, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5375, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.457, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.457, "tackles": 0.457, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.989, "total_progression": 4.306, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2815 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9945, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.46, "projection_minutes": 18.69, "minutes_scale": 1.3621, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.037, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1077, "after": 0.0647 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.037, "after": 0.0222 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3024, "fifa_rank": 1827.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "scorer_weight": 0.0518, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.0413, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0707, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 0.7355, "expected_assists": 0.0222, "key_pass": 0.3618, "rating": 6.5771, "minutes": 25.46, "total_pass": 9.3725, "accurate_pass": 9.3725, "duels_won": 2.5993, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1759, "crosses_total": 1.9771, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.9491, "possession_lost": 1.9771, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.7321, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.6225, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6225, "tackles": 0.6225, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.7093, "total_progression": 5.8653, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3834, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0611, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0218, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0218, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0178, "squad_weight_total": 0.8119, "weight_share": 0.0219, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1374, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1335, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Lucas Torró": { "player_id": 187313, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 190, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 1.0605, "creation_factor": 1.1608, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421078, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Osasuna", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0303, "expected_assists": 0.0218, "total_shots": 1, 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"contribution": -0.0763 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0074 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.005 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 6.6958, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076287 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034108 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010604 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.007359 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.004999 } ], "others_margin": -0.026023 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2715, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "assists": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0315, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goals": 0.0292, "goal_rate": 0.0292, "shots_on_target": 0.1014, "total_shots": 0.369, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1873, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1873, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4173, "fouls_drawn": 0.1873, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2676 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0061)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2715, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "assists": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0313, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.1008, "total_shots": 0.3676, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 7.4275, "accurate_pass": 5.8958, "duels_won": 1.132, "total_long_balls": 0.82, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2203, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.1752, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0932, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7206, "crosses_total": 0.1862, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1726, "possession_lost": 2.0653, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8787, "aerial_won": 0.7856, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1862, "tackles_won": 0.0018, "tackles": 0.1591, "clearances": 0.8058, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4156, "fouls_drawn": 0.1862, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4713, "total_progression": 0.3855, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2676 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0061, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.191, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.2 to 18.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.14, "projection_minutes": 17.19, "minutes_scale": 1.0553, "appearance_probability": 0.564 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assists": 0.033, "assist_rate": 0.033, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goals": 0.0306, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0605, "creation_factor": 1.1608 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.564 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.026, "after": 0.0156 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0215, "after": 0.0129 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0605, "creation_factor": 1.1608, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3360, "fifa_rank": 1953.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0605, "creation_factor": 1.1608, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "scorer_weight": 0.0165, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.0132, "finishing_factor": 1.0605, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2865, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "assist_rate": 0.033, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0156, "goal_rate": 0.0306, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1064, "total_shots": 0.3888, "rating": 6.6958, "minutes": 18.14, "total_pass": 7.838, "accurate_pass": 6.2216, "duels_won": 1.1946, "total_long_balls": 0.8653, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2325, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5186, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.3507, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.871, "crosses_total": 0.1965, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.7348, "possession_lost": 2.1794, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9273, "aerial_won": 0.829, "aerial_lost": 0.3022, "interceptions": 0.1965, "tackles_won": 0.0019, "tackles": 0.1679, "clearances": 0.8503, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.1591, "fouls": 0.4386, "fouls_drawn": 0.1965, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.6079, "total_progression": 0.4068, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2824, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.14, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0154, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 1.0605, "creation_factor": 1.1608, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0128, "assist_rate": 0.033, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.8119, "weight_share": 0.0184, "creation_factor": 1.1608, "appearance_weight": 0.564, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1374, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1335, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] }, "Aimar Oroz": { "player_id": 985329, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 177, "market_value": 6900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0323 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0394, "total": 0.3983, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.349445 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.22372 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.037064 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.032339 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017302 } ], "others_margin": 0.039507 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6981658935546875, "model_output": 6.6982, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0861 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.6982, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086081 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024045 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022127 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009839 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.009042 } ], "others_margin": -0.005895 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5852, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0588, "assist_rate": 0.0588, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0423, "shots_on_target": 0.1728, "total_shots": 0.398, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.2995, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1478, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6997, "fouls_drawn": 0.9804, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2252 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6900000, "quality_factor": 0.4854, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0094)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5852, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "assists": 0.0582, "assist_rate": 0.0582, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "shots_on_target": 0.1712, "total_shots": 0.3967, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 19.67, "total_pass": 9.4902, "accurate_pass": 7.6037, "duels_won": 1.5166, "total_long_balls": 0.4063, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2324, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6742, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.138, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.816, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4657, "crosses_total": 0.3003, "crosses_accurate": 0.1739, "touches": 13.7565, "possession_lost": 3.4186, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 2.5535, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1464, "tackles": 0.2956, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.2406, "won_contest": 0.2406, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.6955, "fouls_drawn": 0.9784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.7292, "total_progression": 18.6166, "progressive_carries": 0.6987, "shots_off_target": 0.2252 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0094, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2186, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Osasuna" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.7 to 14.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0441, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.92, "projection_minutes": 19.67, "minutes_scale": 0.7585, "appearance_probability": 0.439 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assists": 0.0441, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "goals": 0.0318, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0319, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.18 (squad xG sum 1.1107, xG scale 1.0615, xA scale 1.0615, team xA 0.84 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 1.149 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.179, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1107, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7901, "team_expected_assists": 0.8387, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7114, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0615, "xa_scale": 1.0615, "opponent_lambda": 1.804, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.439 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0317, "after": 0.0148 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0319, "after": 0.0149 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 1.149, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3320, "fifa_rank": 1976.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0146, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 1.149, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0146, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "scorer_weight": 0.0148, "squad_weight_total": 1.2522, "weight_share": 0.0118, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "appearance_weight": 0.439, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ante Budimir", "weight": 0.481, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.481, "runner_up": "Jonathan Dubasin", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2266 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4439, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "goal_rate": 0.0318, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1299, "total_shots": 0.3009, "rating": 6.6982, "minutes": 14.92, "total_pass": 7.1985, "accurate_pass": 5.7675, "duels_won": 1.1504, "total_long_balls": 0.3082, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1763, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0284, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6217, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1458, "crosses_total": 0.2278, "crosses_accurate": 0.1319, "touches": 10.4345, "possession_lost": 2.5931, "dispossessed": 0.6518, "duels_lost": 1.9369, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4145, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.111, "tackles": 0.2242, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.1825, "won_contest": 0.1825, "challenges_lost": 0.7875, "fouls": 0.5275, "fouls_drawn": 0.7421, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0953, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8287, "total_progression": 14.121, "progressive_carries": 0.53, "shots_off_target": 0.1708, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.439, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.92, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.587, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0146, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "finishing_factor": 1.0012, "creation_factor": 1.149, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0146, "assist_rate": 0.0441, "provider_weight": 0.0171, "squad_weight_total": 0.8119, "weight_share": 0.0211, "creation_factor": 1.149, "appearance_weight": 0.439, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rubén García", "weight": 0.1374, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1374, "runner_up": "Alejandro Catena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1335, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ante Budimir" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.18, "expected_assists": 0.84, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 398, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Youssouf Fofana", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.593, "defenders": [ "Abel Bretones" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.442, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.528, "xg_contribution": 0.1501, "xg_multiplier": 1.0702, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abel Bretones", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.472 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youssouf Fofana (LW) is slightly favored against Abel Bretones in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Robbie Ure", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.183, "xg_contribution": 0.2241, "xg_multiplier": 0.975, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.817 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robbie Ure (ST) is evenly matched against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rubén Vargas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 13900000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.567, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1235, "xg_multiplier": 0.971, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén Vargas (ST) is evenly matched against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Félix Correia", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1937, "xg_multiplier": 0.9333, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alejandro Catena", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Félix Correia (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo and Alejandro Catena in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lucien Agoumé", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.616, "defenders": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "xg_contribution": 0.0588, "xg_multiplier": 1.1746, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.481 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucien Agoumé (CDM) is slightly favored against Iker Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Kochorashvili", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0512, "xg_multiplier": 0.9992, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iker Muñoz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Kochorashvili (CDM) is evenly matched against Iker Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Juan Iglesias" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.2151, "xg_multiplier": 0.9385, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Iglesias", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Juan Iglesias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.215 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Rubén García", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.409, "xg_contribution": 0.1036, "xg_multiplier": 0.896, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.591 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén García (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas", "Andrés Castrin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.545, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3742, "xg_multiplier": 0.9176, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Andrés Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Kike Salas and Andrés Castrin in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.92 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.374 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.344, "xg_contribution": 0.0356, "xg_multiplier": 0.8882, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Iker Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.331, "xg_contribution": 0.0369, "xg_multiplier": 0.8254, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.669 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iker Muñoz (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.83 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Moi Gómez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.0244, "xg_multiplier": 0.796, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moi Gómez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.80 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.024 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.554, "away_midfield_power": 0.455, "home_creative_power": 0.471, "away_creative_power": 0.387, "home_defensive_power": 0.637, "away_defensive_power": 0.387, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.549, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Youssouf Fofana", "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Moi Gómez", "Jon Moncayola" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Lucien Agoumé vs Jon Moncayola", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.018, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.972 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.804, "away_lambda": 1.179, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Youssouf Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Abel Bretones", "Moi Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robbie Ure": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rubén Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Félix Correia": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Alejandro Catena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz", "Jon Moncayola", "Moi Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Kochorashvili": { "opponents": [ "Iker Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrés Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Dubasin", "Rubén García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure", "Rubén Vargas", "Félix Correia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alejandro Catena": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure", "Rubén Vargas", "Félix Correia" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iker Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Giorgi Kochorashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Juan Iglesias" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rubén García": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Andrés Castrin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Moi Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Youssouf Fofana" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aitor Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas", "Félix Correia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Valentin Rosier": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Lucien Agoumé vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.79. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.093, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.133, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9991, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9702, "home_midfield_factor": 1.018, "away_midfield_factor": 0.972, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5289, "away_avg_quality": 0.4587, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0703, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.79, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6742, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.9982, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1722, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0947, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0551, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8014, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9385 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.018, "result": 0.9554 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9459 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.2692 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0626, "result": 1.3486 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.363 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9991, "result": 1.3617 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.093, "result": 1.4547 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.4547, "result": 1.4547, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1722, "factor": 1.0947, "pre": 1.4547, "result": 1.5925 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5925 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.813 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 1.4815, "result": 1.7374 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.7374, "result": 1.737, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.911 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9714, "pre": 1.911, "result": 1.8563, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.856 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.856 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.856, "result": 1.856, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.978, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.804 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7898, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9298 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.972, "result": 0.9038 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.9309 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9309 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9799, "result": 0.9122 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0096, "result": 0.921 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9702, "result": 0.8936 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.133, "result": 1.0266 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0266, "result": 1.0266, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1722, "factor": 0.9449, "pre": 1.0266, "result": 0.97 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.97 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1449, "result": 1.1149 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 1.4815, "result": 1.1985 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.1985, "result": 1.198, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.162 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0286, "pre": 1.162, "result": 1.1952, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.195 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.195 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.195, "result": 1.195, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.978, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.179 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1449, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "Osasuna", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.856, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.195, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7374, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1985, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.978, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.804, "final_away_lambda": 1.179 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0626, "attack_index": 1.064, "defense_concede_index": 1.087, "form_multiplier": 1.012, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.61, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.64, "team_ppg": 1.48, "opponent_ppg": 1.28 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9799, "attack_index": 0.846, "defense_concede_index": 1.13, "form_multiplier": 0.988, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.28, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.71, "team_ppg": 1.28, "opponent_ppg": 1.48 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Sevilla vs Osasuna. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.737, Away 1.198). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.804, Away 1.179 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Sevilla", "away_squad": "Osasuna", "home_goals_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.481, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.804, "away_lambda": 1.179, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.737, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.198 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.978, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-26T13:31:30Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }