{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Espanyol", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261030", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0974, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0974, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0628, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Villarreal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2289, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1061 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0974 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0878 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0818 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0628 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0485, "0-1": 0.0564, "0-2": 0.034, "0-3": 0.0135, "0-4": 0.004, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0878, "1-1": 0.1061, "1-2": 0.0628, "1-3": 0.0249, "1-4": 0.0074, "1-5": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0818, "2-1": 0.0974, "2-2": 0.058, "2-3": 0.023, "2-4": 0.0069, "2-5": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0504, "3-1": 0.06, "3-2": 0.0357, "3-3": 0.0142, "3-4": 0.0042, "3-5": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0233, "4-1": 0.0277, "4-2": 0.0165, "4-3": 0.0066, "4-4": 0.002, "5-0": 0.0086, "5-1": 0.0102, "5-2": 0.0061, "5-3": 0.0024, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0026, "6-1": 0.0032, "6-2": 0.0019, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0007, "7-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5268, "draw": 0.2289, "away_win": 0.2443 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5855, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4145, "btts_yes": 0.5871, "btts_no": 0.4129, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3039, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1576 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.97, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 7.11, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.82, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.17 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Villarreal vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Villarreal 8W-1D-1L vs Espanyol over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro, Roberto Fernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Maciá vs Gabriel Moscardo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.848, "away_lambda": 1.191, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 8, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 1, "home_multiplier": 1.05, "away_multiplier": 0.95 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1061, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5268, "draw": 0.2289, "away_win": 0.2443 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5268, "fair_spread": 0.657, "fair_total": 3.039, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.848, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.191, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5855, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5871, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3039, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1576, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.5317, "probability": 0.4124, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roberto Fernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.4135, "probability": 0.3387, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.24, "probability": 0.2134, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Edu Expósito (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.1652, "probability": 0.1523, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.039, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 799, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 50.3, "possession_away_pct": 49.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5268, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.66 goals and fair total 3.04.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Espanyol must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Georges Mikautadze against Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro; bench watchlist: Ilias Akhomach, Manor Solomon.", "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Tyrhys Dolan, Javi Puado, Cyril Ngonge.", "Assist usage should flow through Alberto Moleiro, Javier Hernández; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.52 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Espanyol is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Espanyol wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Villarreal": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Georges Mikautadze": { "player_id": 1009372, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 176, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5317, "goal_rate": 0.4323, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.1172, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 38, "possession_lost": 11.8923, "dispossessed": 1.1827, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2227, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.859, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1488, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.4124, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1106, "finishing_factor": 1.0218, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421089, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2844, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421076, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421066, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1889, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6685, "expected_assists": 0.0025, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4251, "expected_assists": 0.5678, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5212, "expected_assists": 0.0343, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416324, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1751, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.215, "expected_assists": 0.1187, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.7893, "expected_assists": 0.2452, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2206, "expected_assists": 0.4077, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1648, "combined_rank_score": 667.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 371.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9688, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 964.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0084, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Georges Mikautadze", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Andrew Robertson", "ranking": 1643 }, { "player_name": "Dango Ouattara", "ranking": 1644 }, { "player_name": "Aziz Kholmurodov", "ranking": 1645 }, { "player_name": "Uroš Kojić", "ranking": 1646 }, { "player_name": "Josh Risdon", "ranking": 1647 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Trai Hume", "ranking": 1649 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Pedraza", "ranking": 1650 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Provod", "ranking": 1651 }, { "player_name": "Isi Palazón", "ranking": 1652 }, { "player_name": "Walter Benítez", "ranking": 1653 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.778, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.778, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0093, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 249.0, "goals_per90": 0.35714285714285715, "assists_per90": 0.35714285714285715, "shots_per90": 3.61, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0093, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3673, "goals": 0.3769, "goal_rate": 0.3769, "shots_on_target": 1.1479, "total_shots": 2.4169, "expected_assists": 0.093, "key_pass": 1.0975, "rating": 7.0084, "minutes": 83.68, "total_pass": 21.6693, "accurate_pass": 17.702, "duels_won": 3.0805, "total_long_balls": 0.9508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.814, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7247, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2688, "crosses_total": 0.9877, "crosses_accurate": 0.1075, "touches": 37.8007, "possession_lost": 11.8923, "dispossessed": 1.1827, "duels_lost": 5.2387, "aerial_lost": 0.6381, "total_contest": 4.418, "won_contest": 1.9307, "ball_recovery": 1.7082, "challenges_lost": 0.5091, "fouls": 0.529, "fouls_drawn": 0.86, "assists": 0.2213, "assist_rate": 0.2213, "interceptions": 0.2419, "tackles_won": 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421066, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.4, 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1.3888224363327026, "model_output": 1.3888, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1455 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2103 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1126 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1034 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.091 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0849 } ], "others": 0.2819, "total": 1.3888, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.267093 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.118298 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097527 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.085313 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.079827 } ], "others_margin": 0.226828 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.966065883636475, "model_output": 6.9661, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 6.9661, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062741 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9972, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2656, "goals": 0.2558, "goal_rate": 0.2558, "shots_on_target": 0.6709, "total_shots": 1.8713, "expected_assists": 0.1057, "key_pass": 1.3849, "rating": 6.9661, "minutes": 77.47, "total_pass": 34.7457, "accurate_pass": 28.8788, "duels_won": 3.6164, "total_long_balls": 2.0481, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2351, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.7263, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0929, "crosses_total": 0.9051, "crosses_accurate": 0.2013, "touches": 47.6398, "possession_lost": 10.0681, "dispossessed": 0.5776, "duels_lost": 2.9936, "aerial_lost": 0.5467, "total_contest": 2.0405, "won_contest": 1.2248, "ball_recovery": 1.8629, "challenges_lost": 0.6526, "fouls": 0.5412, "fouls_drawn": 0.7727, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.107, "tackles_won": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0096, quality 0.837)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2811, "goals": 0.4076, "goal_rate": 0.4076, "shots_on_target": 1.2602, "total_shots": 2.7059, "expected_assists": 0.1904, "key_pass": 1.9303, "rating": 7.3623, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 36.4559, "accurate_pass": 30.9072, "duels_won": 2.4352, "total_long_balls": 1.0247, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5795, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.238, "crosses_total": 3.5651, "crosses_accurate": 1.318, "touches": 51.7291, "possession_lost": 12.4269, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 4.5218, "aerial_lost": 0.2513, "total_contest": 2.1356, "won_contest": 0.8839, "ball_recovery": 2.3579, "challenges_lost": 1.0542, "fouls": 0.7637, "fouls_drawn": 0.6305, "assists": 0.3265, "assist_rate": 0.3265, "interceptions": 0.2153, 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"antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Leandro Cabrera, Vanja Drkušić", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1585, "skill_edge": 0.1678, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.837, "defender_skill": 0.464, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "market_value": 930000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "market_value": 5500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4907 } ], "xg_override": 0.3257 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.6974, "after": 3.1249 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4456, "after": 1.6747 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.2518, "after": 1.4502 }, { "stat": 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4104, "goal_rate": 0.4691, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.4502, "total_shots": 3.1249, "expected_assists": 0.24, "key_pass": 1.9303, "rating": 7.3623, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 36.4559, "accurate_pass": 30.9072, "duels_won": 2.4352, "total_long_balls": 1.0247, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5795, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.238, "crosses_total": 3.5599, "crosses_accurate": 1.318, "touches": 51.7291, "possession_lost": 12.4269, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 4.5218, "aerial_lost": 0.2513, "total_contest": 2.1356, "won_contest": 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1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3257, "after": 0.4104 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1904, "after": 0.24 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_rank": 849.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4104, "goal_rate": 0.4691, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1.4502, "total_shots": 3.1249, "expected_assists": 0.24, "key_pass": 1.9303, "rating": 7.3623, "minutes": 80.33, "total_pass": 36.4559, "accurate_pass": 30.9072, "duels_won": 2.4352, "total_long_balls": 1.0247, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5795, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.3007, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.238, "crosses_total": 3.5599, "crosses_accurate": 1.318, "touches": 51.7291, "possession_lost": 12.4269, "dispossessed": 1.2091, "duels_lost": 4.5218, "aerial_lost": 0.2513, "total_contest": 2.1356, "won_contest": 0.8839, "ball_recovery": 2.3579, "challenges_lost": 1.0542, "fouls": 0.7623, "fouls_drawn": 0.63, 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0.0343 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.085, "items": [ { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0036 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0025 } ], "others": 0.0013, "total": 0.0734, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.464835, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.152357 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.099724 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.097691 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050309 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.034783 } ], "others_margin": 0.018705 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.05843808501958847, "model_output": 0.0584, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0812 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0743 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0.15255951881408691, "model_output": 0.1526, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3183, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0921 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0123 } ], "others": -0.0356, "total": 0.1526, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.341471 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.163596 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121522 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.078781 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.063486 } ], "others_margin": -0.209615 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5822847485542297, "model_output": 0.5823, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2707 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1197 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0333 } ], "others": -0.1369, "total": 0.5823, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270667 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.119727 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046069 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.034543 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.033345 } ], "others_margin": -0.136926 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.92388391494751, "model_output": 6.9239, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0436 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 6.9239, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.043582 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.039184 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.029179 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020564 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.013956 } ], "others_margin": -0.036648 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8556, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assists": 0.0734, "assist_rate": 0.0734, "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.0505, "goal_rate": 0.0505, "shots_on_target": 0.1526, "total_shots": 0.5823, "rating": 6.9239, "minutes": 70.11, "total_pass": 42.3201, "accurate_pass": 37.8699, "duels_won": 2.4175, "total_long_balls": 2.6535, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1586, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1107, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8612, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0087, "crosses_total": 0.463, "crosses_accurate": 0.1093, "touches": 53.2, "possession_lost": 6.9204, "dispossessed": 0.7288, "duels_lost": 3.9686, "aerial_won": 0.2212, "aerial_lost": 0.6628, "interceptions": 1.1783, "tackles_won": 0.7787, "tackles": 1.0703, "clearances": 0.9727, "total_contest": 0.5366, "won_contest": 0.2422, "challenges_lost": 0.8238, "fouls": 1.4729, "fouls_drawn": 0.8838, "blocks": 0.4152, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.1353, "xgot": 0.0872, "ball_carries": 12.4012, "total_progression": 35.8249, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4297 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0099)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8556, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assists": 0.0727, "assist_rate": 0.0727, "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1511, "total_shots": 0.5765, "rating": 6.9239, "minutes": 70.11, "total_pass": 42.3201, "accurate_pass": 37.8699, "duels_won": 2.4175, "total_long_balls": 2.6535, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1586, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1107, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8612, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0087, "crosses_total": 0.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.1093, "touches": 53.2, "possession_lost": 6.9204, "dispossessed": 0.7288, "duels_lost": 3.9686, "aerial_won": 0.2212, "aerial_lost": 0.6628, "interceptions": 1.1771, "tackles_won": 0.785, "tackles": 1.0703, "clearances": 0.9727, "total_contest": 0.5366, "won_contest": 0.2422, "challenges_lost": 0.8238, "fouls": 1.4794, "fouls_drawn": 0.8785, "blocks": 0.4152, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.1353, "xgot": 0.0872, "ball_carries": 12.4012, "total_progression": 35.8249, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4297 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0099, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.779, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4729, "after": 1.4794 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7787, "after": 0.785 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5823, "after": 0.5765 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8838, "after": 0.8785 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8556, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assists": 0.0727, "assist_rate": 0.0727, "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goals": 0.05, "goal_rate": 0.05, "shots_on_target": 0.1511, "total_shots": 0.5808, "rating": 6.9239, "minutes": 70.11, "total_pass": 42.3201, "accurate_pass": 37.8699, "duels_won": 2.4175, "total_long_balls": 2.6535, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1586, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1107, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8612, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0087, "crosses_total": 0.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.1093, "touches": 53.2, "possession_lost": 6.9204, "dispossessed": 0.7288, "duels_lost": 3.9686, "aerial_won": 0.2212, "aerial_lost": 0.6628, "interceptions": 1.1771, "tackles_won": 0.785, "tackles": 1.0703, "clearances": 0.9727, "total_contest": 0.5366, "won_contest": 0.2422, "challenges_lost": 0.8238, "fouls": 1.4794, "fouls_drawn": 0.8785, "blocks": 0.4152, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.1353, "xgot": 0.0872, "ball_carries": 12.4012, "total_progression": 35.8249, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4297 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8556, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assists": 0.0727, "assist_rate": 0.0727, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "shots_on_target": 0.1661, "total_shots": 0.6383, "rating": 6.9239, "minutes": 70.11, "total_pass": 42.3201, "accurate_pass": 37.8699, "duels_won": 2.4175, "total_long_balls": 2.6535, 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Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Álex Calatrava", "opponent_faced": "Álex Calatrava", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.517, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.099, "skill_edge": 0.0194, "height_edge": 0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.5146, "defender_skill": 0.4716, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Álex Calatrava", "market_value": 4900000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4716 } ], "xg_override": 0.0642 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2212, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5808, "after": 0.6383 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4297, "after": 0.4722 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1511, "after": 0.1661 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1353, "after": 0.1487 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0872, "after": 0.0958 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0584, "after": 0.0642 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8556, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "assist_rate": 0.0727, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0642, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1661, "total_shots": 0.6383, "rating": 6.9239, "minutes": 70.11, "total_pass": 42.3201, "accurate_pass": 37.8699, "duels_won": 2.4175, "total_long_balls": 2.6535, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1586, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1107, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8612, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0087, "crosses_total": 0.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.1093, "touches": 53.2, "possession_lost": 6.9204, "dispossessed": 0.7288, "duels_lost": 3.9686, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.6628, "interceptions": 1.1771, "tackles_won": 0.785, "tackles": 1.0703, "clearances": 0.9727, "total_contest": 0.5366, "won_contest": 0.2422, "challenges_lost": 0.8238, "fouls": 1.4794, "fouls_drawn": 0.8785, "blocks": 0.4152, "big_chances_created": 0.0343, "big_chances_missed": 0.1487, "xgot": 0.0958, "ball_carries": 12.4012, "total_progression": 35.8249, "progressive_carries": 0.7882, "shots_off_target": 0.4722, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.099, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.517, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Álex Calatrava", "opponent_faced": "Álex Calatrava", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8556, "expected_assists": 0.0805, "assist_rate": 0.0727, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0809, "goal_rate": 0.0549, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1661, "total_shots": 0.6383, "rating": 6.9239, "minutes": 70.11, "total_pass": 42.3201, "accurate_pass": 37.8699, "duels_won": 2.4175, "total_long_balls": 2.6535, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1586, "total_own_half_passes": 18.1107, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8612, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0087, "crosses_total": 0.4584, "crosses_accurate": 0.1093, 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"items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0924 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0346 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0295 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0422, "total": 0.1458, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.34282 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142645 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.141348 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.139753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.045239 } ], "others_margin": -0.254494 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5719548463821411, "model_output": 0.572, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2727 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1117 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0552 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0389 } ], "others": -0.1157, "total": 0.572, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27274 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111691 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055202 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.041299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.038888 } ], "others_margin": -0.115715 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.849004745483398, "model_output": 6.849, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0354 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0315, "total": 6.849, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035413 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030249 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.014822 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.013439 } ], "others_margin": -0.031442 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 11, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.574)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.486, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assists": 0.05, "assist_rate": 0.05, "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goals": 0.0545, "goal_rate": 0.0545, "shots_on_target": 0.1467, "total_shots": 0.5756, "rating": 6.849, "minutes": 82.49, "total_pass": 21.3558, "accurate_pass": 18.0305, "duels_won": 2.8055, "total_long_balls": 1.5974, "accurate_long_balls": 0.701, "total_own_half_passes": 7.842, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1494, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.5138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8811, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5374, "possession_lost": 4.6134, "dispossessed": 0.2618, "duels_lost": 2.2304, "aerial_won": 0.3626, "aerial_lost": 0.2618, "interceptions": 0.7584, "tackles_won": 1.0805, "tackles": 1.9333, "clearances": 0.8421, 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"contribution": 0.0479 } ], "others": 0.095, "total": 1.7933, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.384009 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.167147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.064788 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.05036 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.047911 } ], "others_margin": 0.094997 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.935494422912598, "model_output": 6.9355, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0382 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0279 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.557)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.1516, "assists": 0.1221, "assist_rate": 0.1221, "expected_goals": 0.1522, "goals": 0.1565, "goal_rate": 0.1565, "shots_on_target": 0.6545, "total_shots": 1.7964, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0137, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 0.4572, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5454, "tackles_won": 0.7636, "tackles": 1.1403, "clearances": 0.4711, "total_contest": 2.1001, "won_contest": 0.5221, "challenges_lost": 0.9706, "fouls": 1.0709, "fouls_drawn": 1.8946, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1812, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.0984, "ball_carries": 14.4729, "total_progression": 84.7061, "progressive_carries": 3.2274, "shots_off_target": 1.1419 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13000000, "quality_factor": 0.557, "boost_factor": 1.0017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0065)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.1516, "assists": 0.1213, "assist_rate": 0.1213, "expected_goals": 0.1522, "goals": 0.1555, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "shots_on_target": 0.6577, "total_shots": 1.7995, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0277, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 0.4572, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.7661, "tackles": 1.1403, "clearances": 0.4711, "total_contest": 2.1001, "won_contest": 0.5221, "challenges_lost": 0.9706, "fouls": 1.0751, "fouls_drawn": 1.9046, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1812, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.0984, "ball_carries": 14.4729, "total_progression": 84.7061, "progressive_carries": 3.2274, "shots_off_target": 1.1419 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0065, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8052, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 3.0137, "after": 3.0277 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.8946, "after": 1.9046 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.1516, "assists": 0.1213, "assist_rate": 0.1213, "expected_goals": 0.1522, "goals": 0.1555, "goal_rate": 0.1555, "shots_on_target": 0.6577, "total_shots": 1.7996, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0277, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 0.4572, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.7661, "tackles": 1.1403, "clearances": 0.4711, "total_contest": 2.1001, "won_contest": 0.5221, "challenges_lost": 0.9706, "fouls": 1.0751, "fouls_drawn": 1.9046, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1812, "big_chances_missed": 0.1482, "xgot": 0.0984, "ball_carries": 14.4729, "total_progression": 84.7061, "progressive_carries": 3.2274, "shots_off_target": 1.1419 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.1516, "assists": 0.1213, "assist_rate": 0.1213, "expected_goals": 0.1438, "goals": 0.1469, "goal_rate": 0.1469, "shots_on_target": 0.6213, "total_shots": 1.6999, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0277, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.7661, "tackles": 1.1403, "clearances": 0.4711, "total_contest": 2.1001, "won_contest": 0.5221, "challenges_lost": 0.9706, "fouls": 1.0751, "fouls_drawn": 1.9046, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1812, "big_chances_missed": 0.14, "xgot": 0.0929, "ball_carries": 14.4729, "total_progression": 84.7061, "progressive_carries": 3.2274, "shots_off_target": 1.0786, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9446, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9446, "skill_edge": -0.0377, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.5731, "defender_skill": 0.6569, "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "market_value": 15900000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.6569 } ], "xg_override": 0.1438 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4572, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7996, "after": 1.6999 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1419, "after": 1.0786 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6577, "after": 0.6213 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1555, "after": 0.1469 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1522, "after": 0.1438 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1482, "after": 0.14 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0984, "after": 0.0929 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.1516, "assist_rate": 0.1213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.1469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6213, "total_shots": 1.6999, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0277, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.7661, "tackles": 1.1403, "clearances": 0.4711, "total_contest": 2.1001, "won_contest": 0.5221, "challenges_lost": 0.9706, "fouls": 1.0751, "fouls_drawn": 1.9046, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1812, "big_chances_missed": 0.14, "xgot": 0.0929, "ball_carries": 14.4729, "total_progression": 84.7061, "progressive_carries": 3.2274, "shots_off_target": 1.0786, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9446, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.191, "assist_rate": 0.1213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6213, "total_shots": 1.6999, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0277, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.7661, "tackles": 1.1403, "clearances": 0.4711, "total_contest": 2.1001, "won_contest": 0.5221, "challenges_lost": 0.9706, "fouls": 1.0751, "fouls_drawn": 1.9046, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1812, "big_chances_missed": 0.14, "xgot": 0.1171, "ball_carries": 14.4729, "total_progression": 84.7061, "progressive_carries": 3.2274, "shots_off_target": 1.0786, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9446, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.016, "creation_factor": 0.8497 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1438, "after": 0.1812 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1516, "after": 0.191 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.191, "assist_rate": 0.1213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6213, "total_shots": 1.6999, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0277, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5456, "tackles_won": 0.7661, "tackles": 1.1403, "clearances": 0.4711, "total_contest": 2.1001, "won_contest": 0.5221, "challenges_lost": 0.9706, "fouls": 1.0751, "fouls_drawn": 1.9046, "blocks": 0.0467, "big_chances_created": 0.1812, "big_chances_missed": 0.14, "xgot": 0.1171, "ball_carries": 14.4729, "total_progression": 84.7061, "progressive_carries": 3.2274, "shots_off_target": 1.0786, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9446, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Omar El Hilali", "opponent_faced": "Omar El Hilali", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.016, "creation_factor": 0.8497, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3318, "fifa_rank": 1967.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5997, "expected_assists": 0.191, "assist_rate": 0.1213, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1812, "goal_rate": 0.1469, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6213, "total_shots": 1.6999, "rating": 6.9355, "minutes": 72.47, "total_pass": 21.7637, "accurate_pass": 18.5284, "duels_won": 4.0141, "total_long_balls": 0.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1896, "total_own_half_passes": 6.096, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2939, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6678, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.2348, "crosses_total": 3.0277, "crosses_accurate": 0.7549, "touches": 41.12, "possession_lost": 11.5528, "dispossessed": 1.0876, "duels_lost": 5.3723, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.6651, "interceptions": 0.5456, 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"totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1163 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1101 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0824 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0549 } ], "others": -0.0886, "total": 0.7369, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.351787 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.127857 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121417 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.08942 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.064391 } ], "others_margin": -0.113591 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6094995737075806, "model_output": 0.6095, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0069, "total": 0.6095, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062729 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030791 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.010986 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010013 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.009571 } ], "others_margin": 0.00687 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.822251319885254, "model_output": 6.8223, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0415 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0036, "total": 6.8223, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.041524 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017698 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014075 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013443 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.008515 } ], "others_margin": 0.003547 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.019, "tackles": 1.9668, "tackles_won": 1.1677, "clearances": 1.9981, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "total_shots": 0.6095, "rating": 6.8223, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.356, "accurate_pass": 37.7205, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9648, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 68.9086, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4685 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.019, "tackles": 1.9668, "tackles_won": 1.1677, "clearances": 1.9981, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "total_shots": 0.6095, "rating": 6.8223, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.356, "accurate_pass": 37.7205, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9648, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 68.9086, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4685 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.019, "tackles": 1.9668, "tackles_won": 1.1677, "clearances": 1.9981, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "total_shots": 0.6095, "rating": 6.8223, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.356, "accurate_pass": 37.7205, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9648, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 68.9086, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goals": 0.0491, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4685, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.019, "tackles": 1.9668, "tackles_won": 1.1677, "clearances": 1.9981, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "total_shots": 0.6095, "rating": 6.8223, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.356, "accurate_pass": 37.7205, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9648, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 68.9086, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.1243, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4685, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.019, "tackles": 1.9668, "tackles_won": 1.1677, "clearances": 1.9981, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "total_shots": 0.6095, "rating": 6.8223, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.356, "accurate_pass": 37.7205, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9648, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 68.9086, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "expected_assists": 0.1566, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0195, "ball_carries": 16.1657, "total_progression": 78.1248, "progressive_carries": 1.5749, "key_pass": 0.9784, "shots_off_target": 0.4685, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0256, "after": 0.0323 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1243, "after": 0.1566 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.019, "tackles": 1.9668, "tackles_won": 1.1677, "clearances": 1.9981, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "total_shots": 0.6095, "rating": 6.8223, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.356, "accurate_pass": 37.7205, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9648, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 68.9086, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "expected_assists": 0.1566, 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appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.019, "tackles": 1.9668, "tackles_won": 1.1677, "clearances": 1.9981, "aerial_won": 0.7369, "total_shots": 0.6095, "rating": 6.8223, "minutes": 85.9, "total_pass": 44.356, "accurate_pass": 37.7205, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.2871, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1663, "total_own_half_passes": 20.3822, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9648, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9738, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7556, "crosses_total": 3.3439, "crosses_accurate": 0.5434, "touches": 68.9086, "possession_lost": 12.8862, "dispossessed": 0.3439, "duels_lost": 3.7567, "aerial_lost": 0.4603, "total_contest": 0.9101, "won_contest": 0.3565, "ball_recovery": 3.4622, "challenges_lost": 1.0744, "fouls": 1.3304, "fouls_drawn": 1.2456, "blocks": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.0491, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0323, "expected_assists": 0.1566, "shots_on_target": 0.141, "big_chances_created": 0.4629, "xgot": 0.0195, 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1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0779, "after": 0.0982 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0587 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.028, "total": 0.5093, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058679 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.025483 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019263 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016206 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.00989 } ], "others_margin": -0.028038 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.969138145446777, "model_output": 6.9691, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0595 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0155 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0373, "total": 6.9691, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.059483 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.034091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015494 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011434 } ], "others_margin": 0.037362 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0001, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1314, "tackles": 1.4236, "tackles_won": 0.828, "clearances": 4.2282, "aerial_won": 1.4474, "total_shots": 0.5094, "rating": 6.9691, "minutes": 78.33, "total_pass": 58.0214, "accurate_pass": 53.2037, "duels_won": 3.1748, "total_long_balls": 4.318, "accurate_long_balls": 2.939, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.6408, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6026, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.5631, "crosses_total": 0.0367, "crosses_accurate": 0.0367, "touches": 68.5648, "possession_lost": 5.6452, "dispossessed": 0.4599, "duels_lost": 1.98, "aerial_lost": 0.7459, "total_contest": 0.1096, "won_contest": 0.0729, "ball_recovery": 3.7929, "challenges_lost": 0.1073, "fouls": 0.6301, "fouls_drawn": 0.3964, "blocks": 0.8183, "goals": 0.0, 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"minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1479, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1257, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1069, "rating": 9.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 6.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.6574, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 19.4958, "totalLongBalls": 5.6173, "commanding_index": 0.8448, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.6574, "distribution_accuracy": 0.933 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.805389165878296, "model_output": 2.8054, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0453 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.038 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0357 } ], 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"sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0231, "items": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0538 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0231, "total": 0.05, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023055, "item_margins": [ { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.053783 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.029523 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017669 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016947 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.012057 } ], "others_margin": -0.023072 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.014884948730469, "model_output": 7.0149, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0188 } ], "others": -0.0489, "total": 7.0149, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.027187 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.025488 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.022288 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.020312 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018754 } ], "others_margin": -0.04884 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "sweeper_actions": 0.6514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6514, "saves_inside_box": 2.1859, "possession_lost": 2.6722, "duels_won": 0.2525, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3163 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 970000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "sweeper_actions": 0.6514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6514, "saves_inside_box": 2.1859, "possession_lost": 2.6722, "duels_won": 0.2525, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3163 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "sweeper_actions": 0.6514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6514, "saves_inside_box": 2.1859, "possession_lost": 2.6722, "duels_won": 0.2525, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3163, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2142, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.81, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.2142 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "sweeper_actions": 0.6514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6514, "saves_inside_box": 2.1859, "possession_lost": 2.6722, "duels_won": 0.2525, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3163, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2142, "shots_faced": 11.5, "expected_saves": 2.81, "high_pressure_saves": 0.97, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "sweeper_actions": 0.6514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6514, "saves_inside_box": 2.1859, "possession_lost": 2.6722, "duels_won": 0.2525, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3163, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2142, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 11.5, "after": 11.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.81, "after": 2.76 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.97, "after": 0.95 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "sweeper_actions": 0.6514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6514, "saves_inside_box": 2.1859, "possession_lost": 2.6722, "duels_won": 0.2525, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3163, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2142, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 616, "fifa_rank": 409.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, "sweeper_actions": 0.6514, "sweeper_accurate": 0.6514, "saves_inside_box": 2.1859, "possession_lost": 2.6722, "duels_won": 0.2525, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 20.4878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.3163, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.2142, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández, Álex Calatrava", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.9647, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Georges Mikautadze", "weight": 0.5433, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5433, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.513 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.513, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.513, "runner_up": "Gerard Moreno", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3063 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.7796, "goals_prevented": 0.0495, "rating": 7.0149, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 22.161, "accurate_pass": 19.4888, "total_long_balls": 5.5656, "accurate_long_balls": 3.3044, "touches": 31.5653, "clearances": 1.0096, "ball_recovery": 6.8156, "high_claims": 0.55, "punches": 0.5697, "aerial_won": 0.2525, 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"creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.3, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1623 } ] } } ] }, "Alexander Freeman": { "player_id": 1184541, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 188, "market_value": 13800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 60, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 30, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 93, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.8388, "accurate_pass": 60.0148, "duels_won": 6.9569, "total_long_balls": 3.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7275, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.253, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7619, "crosses_total": 0.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.5754, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5.1197, "aerial_lost": 1.2029, "total_contest": 2.4784, "won_contest": 1.4637, "ball_recovery": 7.0313, "challenges_lost": 1.2655, "fouls": 0.6944, "fouls_drawn": 1.2638, "blocks": 0.269, "goals": 0.235, "goal_rate": 0.235, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.043, "expected_assists": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "big_chances_created": 0.1666, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 23.3731, "total_progression": 82.953, "progressive_carries": 1.8249, "key_pass": 1.1848, "shots_off_target": 0.3322 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 13800000, "quality_factor": 0.566, "boost_factor": 1.004, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 18, "history_shrink": 0.2174, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.8388, "accurate_pass": 60.0148, "duels_won": 6.9569, "total_long_balls": 3.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7275, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.253, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7619, "crosses_total": 0.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.5754, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5.1197, "aerial_lost": 1.2029, "total_contest": 2.4784, "won_contest": 1.4637, "ball_recovery": 7.0313, "challenges_lost": 1.2655, "fouls": 0.6944, "fouls_drawn": 1.2638, "blocks": 0.269, "goals": 0.235, "goal_rate": 0.235, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.043, "expected_assists": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "big_chances_created": 0.1666, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 23.3731, "total_progression": 82.953, "progressive_carries": 1.8249, "key_pass": 1.1848, "shots_off_target": 0.3322 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.8388, "accurate_pass": 60.0148, "duels_won": 6.9569, "total_long_balls": 3.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7275, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.253, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7619, "crosses_total": 0.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.5754, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5.1197, "aerial_lost": 1.2029, "total_contest": 2.4784, "won_contest": 1.4637, "ball_recovery": 7.0313, "challenges_lost": 1.2655, "fouls": 0.6944, "fouls_drawn": 1.2638, "blocks": 0.269, "goals": 0.235, "goal_rate": 0.235, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.043, "expected_assists": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "big_chances_created": 0.1666, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 23.3731, "total_progression": 82.953, "progressive_carries": 1.8249, "key_pass": 1.1848, "shots_off_target": 0.3322, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.8388, "accurate_pass": 60.0148, "duels_won": 6.9569, "total_long_balls": 3.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7275, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.253, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7619, "crosses_total": 0.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.5754, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5.1197, "aerial_lost": 1.2029, "total_contest": 2.4784, "won_contest": 1.4637, "ball_recovery": 7.0313, "challenges_lost": 1.2655, "fouls": 0.6944, "fouls_drawn": 1.2638, "blocks": 0.269, "goal_rate": 0.235, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.043, "expected_assists": 0.0735, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "big_chances_created": 0.1666, "xgot": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 23.3731, "total_progression": 82.953, "progressive_carries": 1.8249, "key_pass": 1.1848, "shots_off_target": 0.3322, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.8388, "accurate_pass": 60.0148, "duels_won": 6.9569, "total_long_balls": 3.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7275, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.253, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7619, "crosses_total": 0.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.5754, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5.1197, "aerial_lost": 1.2029, "total_contest": 2.4784, "won_contest": 1.4637, "ball_recovery": 7.0313, "challenges_lost": 1.2655, "fouls": 0.6944, "fouls_drawn": 1.2638, "blocks": 0.269, "goal_rate": 0.235, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0926, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "big_chances_created": 0.1666, "xgot": 0.0786, "ball_carries": 23.3731, "total_progression": 82.953, "progressive_carries": 1.8249, "key_pass": 1.1848, "shots_off_target": 0.3322, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.043, "after": 0.0542 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0735, "after": 0.0926 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.8388, "accurate_pass": 60.0148, "duels_won": 6.9569, "total_long_balls": 3.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7275, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.253, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7619, "crosses_total": 0.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.5754, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5.1197, "aerial_lost": 1.2029, "total_contest": 2.4784, "won_contest": 1.4637, "ball_recovery": 7.0313, "challenges_lost": 1.2655, "fouls": 0.6944, "fouls_drawn": 1.2638, "blocks": 0.269, "goal_rate": 0.235, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0926, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "big_chances_created": 0.1666, "xgot": 0.0786, "ball_carries": 23.3731, "total_progression": 82.953, "progressive_carries": 1.8249, "key_pass": 1.1848, "shots_off_target": 0.3322, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 416, "fifa_rank": 500.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 65.8388, "accurate_pass": 60.0148, "duels_won": 6.9569, "total_long_balls": 3.8217, "accurate_long_balls": 2.7275, "total_own_half_passes": 29.9108, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28.253, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.928, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7619, "crosses_total": 0.8766, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 92.5754, "possession_lost": 11.1379, "dispossessed": 1.109, "duels_lost": 5.1197, "aerial_lost": 1.2029, "total_contest": 2.4784, "won_contest": 1.4637, "ball_recovery": 7.0313, "challenges_lost": 1.2655, "fouls": 0.6944, "fouls_drawn": 1.2638, "blocks": 0.269, "goal_rate": 0.235, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0542, "expected_assists": 0.0926, "shots_on_target": 0.2829, "big_chances_created": 0.1666, "xgot": 0.0786, "ball_carries": 23.3731, "total_progression": 82.953, "progressive_carries": 1.8249, "key_pass": 1.1848, "shots_off_target": 0.3322, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0528, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0528, "goal_rate": 0.235, "scorer_weight": 0.0678, "squad_weight_total": 1.9647, "weight_share": 0.0345, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Georges Mikautadze", "weight": 0.5433, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5433, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.513 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.513, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.513, "runner_up": "Gerard Moreno", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3063 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0836, "tackles": 1.9945, "tackles_won": 1.2216, "clearances": 2.622, "aerial_won": 1.0893, "total_shots": 0.6152, "rating": 7.0549, "minutes": 90.0, 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"clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Roberto Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0528, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0884, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0884, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0741, "squad_weight_total": 1.3182, "weight_share": 0.0562, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.3, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1623 } ] } } ] } }, 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"source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luiz Júnior", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jong-Seok", "ranking": 2068 }, { "player_name": "Ariel Cáceres", "ranking": 2069 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Zelarayán", "ranking": 2070 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 2071 }, { "player_name": "Kaku", "ranking": 2072 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Rodríguez", "ranking": 2074 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 2075 }, { "player_name": "Chan-dong Lee", "ranking": 2076 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 2077 }, { "player_name": "Toni Martínez", "ranking": 2078 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.550)", "stats": { "saves": 2.3966, "goals_prevented": 0.104, "rating": 7.0776, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 21.8249, "accurate_pass": 16.844, "total_long_balls": 7.9229, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0725, "touches": 30.7012, "clearances": 1.3468, "ball_recovery": 7.6644, "high_claims": 1.1506, "punches": 1.6335, "aerial_won": 0.1473, "sweeper_actions": 1.4609, "sweeper_accurate": 1.2911, "saves_inside_box": 1.1466, "possession_lost": 5.0073, "duels_won": 0.2118, "duels_lost": 0.1987, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0308, "fouls_drawn": 0.0827, "total_own_half_passes": 16.7917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.4294 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 12400000, "quality_factor": 0.5502, "boost_factor": 1.0018, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4069, "goals_prevented": 0.0177, "rating": 7.0776, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.84, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1698, "appearance_probability": 0.129 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4069, "goals_prevented": 0.0177, "rating": 7.0776, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4069, "goals_prevented": 0.0177, "rating": 7.0776, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.129, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4069, "goals_prevented": 0.0177, "rating": 7.0776, "minutes": 4.84, "total_pass": 3.7055, "accurate_pass": 2.8599, "total_long_balls": 1.3452, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5217, "touches": 5.2126, "clearances": 0.2287, "ball_recovery": 1.3013, "high_claims": 0.1954, "punches": 0.2773, "aerial_won": 0.025, "sweeper_actions": 0.248, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2192, "saves_inside_box": 0.1947, "possession_lost": 0.8502, "duels_won": 0.036, "duels_lost": 0.0337, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0052, "fouls_drawn": 0.014, "total_own_half_passes": 2.851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6197, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.129, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.84, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2073, "fifa_rank": 1241.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Carlos Romero": { "player_id": 1396048, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 174, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7802, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 5.5317, "dispossessed": 0.4646, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0384, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0248, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0334, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0738, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421066, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0783, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0754, "expected_assists": 0.0685, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0367, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416290, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0469, "expected_assists": 0.053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0973, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1193, "expected_assists": 0.2291, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0256, "expected_assists": 0.018, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0672, "expected_assists": 0.1447, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0131, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1032, "combined_rank_score": 460.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 157.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 764.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7802, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carlos Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mamadou Sangare", "ranking": 1027 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Pirmukhamedov", "ranking": 1028 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 1029 }, { "player_name": "James Donachie", "ranking": 1030 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Campos", "ranking": 1031 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Shota Gvazava", "ranking": 1033 }, { "player_name": "Joachim Andersen", "ranking": 1034 }, { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 1035 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Elanga", "ranking": 1036 }, { "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking": 1037 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 42, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 14.48735814265611, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.236, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0052, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Villarreal", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (42 historical appearances) to 14.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.24); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3222, "tackles": 0.7446, "tackles_won": 0.5242, "clearances": 0.7522, "aerial_won": 0.2253, "total_shots": 0.4741, "rating": 6.7802, "minutes": 24.39, "total_pass": 35.5458, "accurate_pass": 30.5955, "duels_won": 4.0912, "total_long_balls": 2.2412, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2591, "total_own_half_passes": 13.8414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4443, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.1511, "crosses_total": 1.5174, "crosses_accurate": 0.215, "touches": 54.8039, "possession_lost": 9.2647, "dispossessed": 0.4622, "duels_lost": 2.6415, "aerial_lost": 0.4953, "total_contest": 2.1457, "won_contest": 1.3838, "ball_recovery": 4.3306, "challenges_lost": 0.6208, "fouls": 0.3317, "fouls_drawn": 0.8997, "blocks": 0.484, "goals": 0.0652, "goal_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 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{ "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0389 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0229, "total": 6.7802, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.03894 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.022172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013515 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.013084 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009538 } ], "others_margin": -0.023001 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost 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"name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2218 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0698 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0456, "total": 0.1306, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.221836 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.069794 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012316 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.009974 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.008354 } ], "others_margin": -0.045635 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7656569480896, "model_output": 6.7657, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", 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0.0143, "total": 6.9444, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094345 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.081717 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.052621 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018874 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015998 } ], "others_margin": 0.014365 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.3494, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.334, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.31, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.334, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0435, "total": 0.1162, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.58291 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.084317 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.072418 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.065186 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": -0.053477 } ], "others_margin": -0.318291 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.432844877243042, "model_output": 0.4328, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3916 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0423 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0216 } ], "others": -0.1199, "total": 0.4328, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.391603 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042338 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.032527 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02804 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.021583 } ], "others_margin": -0.119848 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.784632682800293, "model_output": 6.7846, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.105 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 6.7846, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.105005 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.050385 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030324 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024796 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015921 } ], "others_margin": -0.026336 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0083, quality 0.566)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3944, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "assists": 0.0408, "assist_rate": 0.0408, "expected_goals": 0.0336, "goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.1171, "total_shots": 0.4365, "rating": 6.7846, "minutes": 26.0, "total_pass": 25.9012, "accurate_pass": 23.4858, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.6164, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3331, "total_own_half_passes": 7.9557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6225, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9456, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8634, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 31.8835, "possession_lost": 3.9313, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.9156, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3331, 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historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.341, "expected_assists": 0.023, "assists": 0.0353, "assist_rate": 0.0353, "expected_goals": 0.0291, "goals": 0.0412, "goal_rate": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1013, "total_shots": 0.3774, "rating": 6.7846, "minutes": 22.48, "total_pass": 22.3958, "accurate_pass": 20.3073, "duels_won": 0.8718, "total_long_balls": 0.533, "accurate_long_balls": 0.288, "total_own_half_passes": 6.879, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5909, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.5169, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.7165, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 27.5685, "possession_lost": 3.3992, "dispossessed": 0.8995, "duels_lost": 3.3857, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.288, "total_contest": 0.2449, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 1.1171, "fouls": 1.3971, "fouls_drawn": 0.8718, "blocks": 0.3389, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2678 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0383 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": 0.028, "total": 0.5916, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494323 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.113666 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078451 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.05858 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.046195 } ], "others_margin": 0.048311 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7682085037231445, "model_output": 6.7682, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 6.7682, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077515 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026874 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023396 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015271 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015204 } ], "others_margin": -0.005868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0013, quality 0.535)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.8713, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.5924, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.41, "total_pass": 8.6054, "accurate_pass": 7.5114, "duels_won": 1.6784, "total_long_balls": 0.41, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2441, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.958, "crosses_total": 1.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.0918, "touches": 16.5746, "possession_lost": 5.0546, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8804, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3049, "won_contest": 0.1988, "ball_recovery": 0.7758, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5515, "fouls_drawn": 0.769, "assists": 0.0859, "assist_rate": 0.0859, "interceptions": 0.1189, "tackles_won": 0.3018, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.2626, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0885, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4817, "total_progression": 23.1174, "progressive_carries": 0.9194, "shots_off_target": 0.6364 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11100000, "quality_factor": 0.5353, "boost_factor": 1.0013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0032)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "shots_on_target": 0.2342, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.5924, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.41, "total_pass": 8.6054, "accurate_pass": 7.5114, "duels_won": 1.6784, "total_long_balls": 0.41, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2441, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.958, "crosses_total": 1.2642, "crosses_accurate": 0.0918, "touches": 16.5746, "possession_lost": 5.0546, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8804, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3049, "won_contest": 0.1988, "ball_recovery": 0.7758, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5512, "fouls_drawn": 0.7694, "assists": 0.0856, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "interceptions": 0.12, "tackles_won": 0.3008, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.2626, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0885, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4817, "total_progression": 23.1174, "progressive_carries": 0.9194, "shots_off_target": 0.6364 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0032, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2268, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.2567, "after": 1.2642 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.4 to 20.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assists": 0.0854, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, 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"key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, 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"substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 1.1455 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.727 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0682, "after": 0.0625 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0099, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 1.1455, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3623, "fifa_rank": 2412.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, 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"touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 0.377, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.462745 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074973 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.044757 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.037792 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.037758 } ], "others_margin": -0.031322 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6362457275390625, "model_output": 6.6362, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0488 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0421, "total": 6.6362, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.04879 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.01346 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01153 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010494 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008218 } ], "others_margin": -0.042107 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.2009, "total_shots": 0.5226, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3765, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 17.29, "total_pass": 6.7875, "accurate_pass": 5.8023, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.348, "crosses_total": 1.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.3352, "touches": 12.0309, "possession_lost": 3.4202, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 0.9105, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.1146, "won_contest": 0.5101, "ball_recovery": 1.1506, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2693, "assists": 0.1406, "assist_rate": 0.1406, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2289, "tackles": 0.2289, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1925, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0403, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 4.4541, "total_progression": 4.6031, "shots_off_target": 0.3217 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assists": 0.2076, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.53, "projection_minutes": 17.29, "minutes_scale": 1.4763, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assists": 0.2076, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0912, "after": 0.0654 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0573, "after": 0.0411 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2850, "fifa_rank": 1792.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0618, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "scorer_weight": 0.0565, "squad_weight_total": 1.9647, "weight_share": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Georges Mikautadze", "weight": 0.5433, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5433, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.513 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.513, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.513, "runner_up": "Gerard Moreno", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3063 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0618, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0397, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, 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"name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": 0.028, "total": 0.5916, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494323 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.113666 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.078451 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.05858 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.046195 } ], "others_margin": 0.048311 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7682085037231445, "model_output": 6.7682, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0234 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0059, "total": 6.7682, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077515 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.026874 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023396 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015271 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015204 } ], "others_margin": -0.005868 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0013, quality 0.535)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.0678, "shots_on_target": 0.2349, "total_shots": 0.8713, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.5924, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.41, "total_pass": 8.6054, "accurate_pass": 7.5114, "duels_won": 1.6784, "total_long_balls": 0.41, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2441, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.958, "crosses_total": 1.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.0918, "touches": 16.5746, "possession_lost": 5.0546, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8804, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3049, "won_contest": 0.1988, "ball_recovery": 0.7758, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5515, "fouls_drawn": 0.769, "assists": 0.0859, "assist_rate": 0.0859, "interceptions": 0.1189, "tackles_won": 0.3018, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.2626, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0885, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4817, "total_progression": 23.1174, "progressive_carries": 0.9194, "shots_off_target": 0.6364 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11100000, "quality_factor": 0.5353, "boost_factor": 1.0013, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0032)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0579, "goals": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 0.0676, "shots_on_target": 0.2342, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0684, "key_pass": 0.5924, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.41, "total_pass": 8.6054, "accurate_pass": 7.5114, "duels_won": 1.6784, "total_long_balls": 0.41, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2441, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8477, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.958, "crosses_total": 1.2642, "crosses_accurate": 0.0918, "touches": 16.5746, "possession_lost": 5.0546, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8804, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3049, "won_contest": 0.1988, "ball_recovery": 0.7758, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5512, "fouls_drawn": 0.7694, "assists": 0.0856, "assist_rate": 0.0856, "interceptions": 0.12, "tackles_won": 0.3008, "tackles": 0.6725, "clearances": 0.2626, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0931, "big_chances_missed": 0.0885, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4817, "total_progression": 23.1174, "progressive_carries": 0.9194, "shots_off_target": 0.6364 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0032, "history_matches": 29, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2268, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Villarreal" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.2567, "after": 1.2642 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.4 to 20.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assists": 0.0854, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 20.36, "projection_minutes": 20.41, "minutes_scale": 0.9976, "appearance_probability": 0.727 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assists": 0.0854, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0108, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0099, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 1.1455 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.727 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0682, "after": 0.0625 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0099, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 1.1455, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3623, "fifa_rank": 2412.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 1.2611, "crosses_accurate": 0.0916, "touches": 16.534, "possession_lost": 5.0422, "dispossessed": 0.7103, "duels_lost": 2.8733, "aerial_lost": 0.5507, "total_contest": 1.3017, "won_contest": 0.1983, "ball_recovery": 0.7739, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7675, "assist_rate": 0.0854, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1197, "tackles_won": 0.3001, "tackles": 0.6709, "clearances": 0.262, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0929, "big_chances_missed": 0.0883, "xgot": 0.0099, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.4683, "total_progression": 23.0608, "progressive_carries": 0.9171, "shots_off_target": 0.6348, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.727, "bench_expected_minutes": 20.36, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0511, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "creation_factor": 1.1455, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "scorer_weight": 0.0577, "squad_weight_total": 1.9647, "weight_share": 0.0294, "finishing_factor": 1.0891, "appearance_weight": 0.727, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Georges Mikautadze", "weight": 0.5433, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5433, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.513 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.513, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.513, "runner_up": "Gerard Moreno", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3063 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2336, "total_shots": 0.8685, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 0.5909, "rating": 6.7682, "minutes": 20.36, "total_pass": 8.5843, "accurate_pass": 7.493, "duels_won": 1.6743, "total_long_balls": 0.409, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8309, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9434, "crosses_total": 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average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9988, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.2009, "total_shots": 0.5226, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3765, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 17.29, "total_pass": 6.7875, "accurate_pass": 5.8023, "duels_won": 1.0083, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.3332, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.348, "crosses_total": 1.0263, "crosses_accurate": 0.3352, "touches": 12.0309, "possession_lost": 3.4202, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 0.9105, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.1146, "won_contest": 0.5101, "ball_recovery": 1.1506, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2693, "assists": 0.1406, "assist_rate": 0.1406, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2289, "tackles": 0.2289, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1925, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0403, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 4.4541, "total_progression": 4.6031, "shots_off_target": 0.3217 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9988, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assists": 0.2076, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.53, "projection_minutes": 17.29, "minutes_scale": 1.4763, "appearance_probability": 0.569 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goals": 0.0719, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assists": 0.2076, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0912, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0595, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.85 (squad xG sum 1.4665, xG scale 1.2601, xA scale 1.2601, team xA 1.31 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.848, "squad_xg_sum": 1.4665, "squad_xa_sum": 1.0421, "team_expected_assists": 1.3132, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7106, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2601, "xa_scale": 1.2601, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.569 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0912, "after": 0.0654 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0573, "after": 0.0411 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2850, "fifa_rank": 1792.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0618, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "scorer_weight": 0.0565, "squad_weight_total": 1.9647, "weight_share": 0.0287, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Georges Mikautadze", "weight": 0.5433, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5433, "runner_up": "Alberto Moleiro", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.513 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.513, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.513, "runner_up": "Gerard Moreno", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3063 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0719, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2966, "total_shots": 0.7715, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.5558, "rating": 6.6362, "minutes": 25.53, "total_pass": 10.0204, "accurate_pass": 8.566, "duels_won": 1.4886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.419, "crosses_total": 1.5151, "crosses_accurate": 0.4949, "touches": 17.7613, "possession_lost": 5.0493, "dispossessed": 0.1406, "duels_lost": 1.3442, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.6455, "won_contest": 0.7531, "ball_recovery": 1.6986, "challenges_lost": 0.1654, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3976, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3379, "tackles": 0.3379, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2842, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0427, "offsides": 0.2693, "ball_carries": 6.5756, "total_progression": 6.7956, "shots_off_target": 0.4749, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.388, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0618, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0397, "finishing_factor": 0.8633, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0397, "assist_rate": 0.2076, "provider_weight": 0.0514, "squad_weight_total": 1.3182, "weight_share": 0.039, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.569, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "weight": 0.3, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3, "runner_up": "Tajon Buchanan", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1623 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.85, "expected_assists": 1.31, "total_shots": 18, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 467, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 7.0, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } }, "Espanyol": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Roberto Fernández": { "player_id": 1392592, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4135, "goal_rate": 0.4031, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7803, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.3128, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0219, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3752, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9469, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3387, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0413, "finishing_factor": 1.1339, "creation_factor": 0.8133, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421083, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, 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"league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4899, "expected_assists": 0.0086, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416299, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3692, "goals": 0.4192, "goal_rate": 0.4192, "shots_on_target": 0.9309, "total_shots": 2.2878, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.5453, "rating": 6.7803, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 11.2824, "accurate_pass": 7.5773, "duels_won": 4.4109, "total_long_balls": 0.2864, "accurate_long_balls": 0.125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6778, "crosses_total": 0.2663, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 23.1346, "possession_lost": 8.3128, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 6.8209, "aerial_lost": 3.5716, "total_contest": 0.6402, "won_contest": 0.2, "ball_recovery": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.6598, "fouls": 1.9089, "fouls_drawn": 1.3063, "assists": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "interceptions": 0.2541, "tackles_won": 0.6514, "tackles": 0.6768, "clearances": 1.1306, "blocks": 0.0903, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.4033, "xgot": 0.3351, "offsides": 1.167, "ball_carries": 4.9307, "total_progression": 2.4816, "progressive_carries": 0.4042, "shots_off_target": 1.3568 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0038, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 48, "history_shrink": 0.0943, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0119)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3692, "goals": 0.4257, "goal_rate": 0.4257, "shots_on_target": 0.9313, "total_shots": 2.2835, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.5453, "rating": 6.7803, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 11.2824, "accurate_pass": 7.5773, "duels_won": 4.4109, "total_long_balls": 0.2864, "accurate_long_balls": 0.125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6778, "crosses_total": 0.267, 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0.0903, "big_chances_created": 0.0047, "big_chances_missed": 0.4033, "xgot": 0.3351, "offsides": 1.1532, "ball_carries": 4.9307, "total_progression": 2.4816, "progressive_carries": 0.4042, "shots_off_target": 1.3568 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3496, "goals": 0.4031, "goal_rate": 0.4031, "shots_on_target": 0.8818, "total_shots": 2.1666, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.5453, "rating": 6.7803, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 11.2824, "accurate_pass": 7.5773, "duels_won": 4.4109, "total_long_balls": 0.2864, "accurate_long_balls": 0.125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6778, "crosses_total": 0.267, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 23.1346, "possession_lost": 8.3128, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 6.8209, "aerial_lost": 3.5716, 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"opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9469, "skill_edge": -0.0241, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.6408, "defender_skill": 0.6943, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "market_value": 13800000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.615 } ], "xg_override": 0.3496 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.2881, "after": 2.1666 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3568, "after": 1.2848 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9313, "after": 0.8818 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.4257, "after": 0.4031 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.4033, "after": 0.3819 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3692, "after": 0.3496 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3351, "after": 0.3173 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3496, "goal_rate": 0.4031, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8818, "total_shots": 2.1666, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "key_pass": 0.5453, "rating": 6.7803, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 11.2824, "accurate_pass": 7.5773, "duels_won": 4.4109, "total_long_balls": 0.2864, "accurate_long_balls": 0.125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6778, "crosses_total": 0.267, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 23.1346, "possession_lost": 8.3128, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 6.8209, "aerial_lost": 3.5716, "total_contest": 0.6402, "won_contest": 0.2, 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"scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4135, "goal_rate": 0.4031, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8818, "total_shots": 2.1666, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "key_pass": 0.5453, "rating": 6.7803, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 11.2824, "accurate_pass": 7.5773, "duels_won": 4.4109, "total_long_balls": 0.2864, "accurate_long_balls": 0.125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6778, "crosses_total": 0.267, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 23.1346, "possession_lost": 8.3128, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 6.8209, "aerial_lost": 3.5716, "total_contest": 0.6402, "won_contest": 0.2, "ball_recovery": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.6598, "fouls": 1.8977, "fouls_drawn": 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"fifa_rank": 2903.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4135, "goal_rate": 0.4031, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8818, "total_shots": 2.1666, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "key_pass": 0.5453, "rating": 6.7803, "minutes": 84.23, "total_pass": 11.2824, "accurate_pass": 7.5773, "duels_won": 4.4109, "total_long_balls": 0.2864, "accurate_long_balls": 0.125, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8435, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6778, "crosses_total": 0.267, "crosses_accurate": 0.0069, "touches": 23.1346, "possession_lost": 8.3128, "dispossessed": 0.3803, "duels_lost": 6.8209, "aerial_lost": 3.5716, "total_contest": 0.6402, "won_contest": 0.2, "ball_recovery": 1.0452, "challenges_lost": 0.6598, "fouls": 1.8977, "fouls_drawn": 1.3099, 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"margin": 0.388716 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.157376 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.073583 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": -0.054027 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.04197 } ], "others_margin": -0.021951 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.12758690118789673, "model_output": 0.1276, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1025 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0785 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0538 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0536 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0078 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0054 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0045 } ], 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"touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0258 } ], "others": 0.1901, "total": 1.2941, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.271065 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.079737 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.052132 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.048285 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0236 } ], "others_margin": 0.158805 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.998050689697266, "model_output": 6.9981, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0373 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0218 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0193 } ], "others": 0.0545, "total": 6.998, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055679 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.03861 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.03735 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.021846 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019315 } ], "others_margin": 0.054405 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9994, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.115, "goals": 0.1572, "goal_rate": 0.1572, "shots_on_target": 0.5005, "total_shots": 1.4191, "expected_assists": 0.1275, "key_pass": 1.2933, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 77.0, "total_pass": 21.4145, "accurate_pass": 16.581, "duels_won": 4.7369, "total_long_balls": 2.3184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1927, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3725, "crosses_total": 3.8479, "crosses_accurate": 1.0721, "touches": 39.5106, "possession_lost": 12.8175, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.5921, "aerial_lost": 0.4148, "total_contest": 3.913, "won_contest": 1.8283, "ball_recovery": 2.3289, "challenges_lost": 0.8811, "fouls": 0.5554, "fouls_drawn": 2.0867, "assists": 0.0371, "assist_rate": 0.0371, "interceptions": 0.0315, 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10.3725, "crosses_total": 3.8479, "crosses_accurate": 1.0721, "touches": 39.5106, "possession_lost": 12.8175, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.5921, "aerial_lost": 0.4148, "total_contest": 3.913, "won_contest": 1.8283, "ball_recovery": 2.3289, "challenges_lost": 0.8811, "fouls": 0.5554, "fouls_drawn": 2.0867, "assists": 0.0371, "assist_rate": 0.0371, "interceptions": 0.0315, "tackles_won": 0.5187, "tackles": 0.7902, "clearances": 0.137, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1725, "offsides": 0.3708, "ball_carries": 17.0769, "total_progression": 97.9162, "progressive_carries": 4.1339, "shots_off_target": 0.9186 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0895, "goals": 0.1224, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "shots_on_target": 0.3896, "total_shots": 1.1046, "expected_assists": 0.1275, "key_pass": 1.2933, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 77.0, "total_pass": 21.4145, "accurate_pass": 16.581, "duels_won": 4.7369, "total_long_balls": 2.3184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1927, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3725, "crosses_total": 3.8479, "crosses_accurate": 1.0721, "touches": 39.5106, "possession_lost": 12.8175, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.5921, "aerial_lost": 0.4148, "total_contest": 3.913, "won_contest": 1.8283, "ball_recovery": 2.3289, "challenges_lost": 0.8811, "fouls": 0.5554, "fouls_drawn": 2.0867, "assists": 0.0371, "assist_rate": 0.0371, "interceptions": 0.0315, "tackles_won": 0.5187, "tackles": 0.7902, "clearances": 0.137, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1343, "offsides": 0.3708, "ball_carries": 17.0769, "total_progression": 97.9162, "progressive_carries": 4.1339, "shots_off_target": 0.715, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7784, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1058, "goal_rate": 0.1224, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3896, "total_shots": 1.1046, "expected_assists": 0.1401, "key_pass": 1.2933, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 77.0, "total_pass": 21.4145, "accurate_pass": 16.581, "duels_won": 4.7369, "total_long_balls": 2.3184, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1927, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2476, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.3725, "crosses_total": 3.8479, "crosses_accurate": 1.0721, "touches": 39.5106, "possession_lost": 12.8175, "dispossessed": 0.6564, "duels_lost": 4.5921, "aerial_lost": 0.4148, "total_contest": 3.913, "won_contest": 1.8283, "ball_recovery": 2.3289, "challenges_lost": 0.8811, "fouls": 0.5554, "fouls_drawn": 2.0867, "assist_rate": 0.0371, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0315, "tackles_won": 0.5187, "tackles": 0.7902, "clearances": 0.137, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1912, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1588, "offsides": 0.3708, "ball_carries": 17.0769, "total_progression": 97.9162, "progressive_carries": 4.1339, "shots_off_target": 0.715, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7784, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "opponent_faced": "Renato Veiga, Alexander Freeman", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2358, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0895, "after": 0.1058 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1275, "after": 0.1401 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0914, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0068 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 0.1131, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.392179, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118179 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.099405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.080438 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.056982 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.051645 } ], "others_margin": 0.022882 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11871647089719772, "model_output": 0.1187, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.1247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3183, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0678 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0535 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0281 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": 0.0493, "total": 0.4758, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.193106 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.12978 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.066123 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059152 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023291 } ], "others_margin": 0.109386 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3793613910675049, "model_output": 1.3794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1687 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1421 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0471 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.039 } ], "others": 0.0345, "total": 1.3794, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.168653 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.142077 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047085 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": 0.041918 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2035, "expected_assists": 0.1383, "assists": 0.2779, "assist_rate": 0.2779, "expected_goals": 0.1128, "goals": 0.1184, "goal_rate": 0.1184, "shots_on_target": 0.4746, "total_shots": 1.3759, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 77.28, "total_pass": 18.9181, "accurate_pass": 15.0737, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.353, "total_own_half_passes": 6.092, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.3454, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.8262, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7284, "crosses_total": 2.0106, "crosses_accurate": 0.3833, "touches": 37.3087, "possession_lost": 14.1304, "dispossessed": 3.2155, "duels_lost": 8.3275, "aerial_won": 0.1345, "aerial_lost": 0.7176, "interceptions": 0.5857, "tackles_won": 0.5725, "tackles": 0.8088, "clearances": 0.0432, "total_contest": 2.8892, "won_contest": 1.4223, "challenges_lost": 1.3189, "fouls": 1.7738, "fouls_drawn": 1.0497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4222, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0854, "ball_carries": 13.3599, "total_progression": 83.4903, "progressive_carries": 2.3866, "shots_off_target": 0.9013 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2035, "expected_assists": 0.1383, "assists": 0.3051, "assist_rate": 0.3051, "expected_goals": 0.1128, "goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1141, "shots_on_target": 0.4699, "total_shots": 1.3637, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 77.28, "total_pass": 18.9181, "accurate_pass": 15.0737, "duels_won": 3.4152, "total_long_balls": 1.059, "accurate_long_balls": 0.353, 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0.3833, "touches": 37.3087, "possession_lost": 14.1304, "dispossessed": 3.2155, "duels_lost": 8.3275, "aerial_won": 0.1345, "aerial_lost": 0.7176, "interceptions": 0.5645, "tackles_won": 0.5766, "tackles": 0.8088, "clearances": 0.0432, "total_contest": 2.8892, "won_contest": 1.4223, "challenges_lost": 1.3189, "fouls": 1.809, "fouls_drawn": 1.0986, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4222, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0854, "ball_carries": 13.3599, "total_progression": 83.4903, "progressive_carries": 2.3866, "shots_off_target": 0.9013 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2035, "expected_assists": 0.1383, "assists": 0.3051, "assist_rate": 0.3051, "expected_goals": 0.1025, "goals": 0.1037, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "shots_on_target": 0.427, "total_shots": 1.2461, "rating": 6.7167, "minutes": 77.28, 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"pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Santi Comesaña", "opponent_faced": "Santi Comesaña", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Santi Comesaña", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9088, "skill_edge": -0.014, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.4834, "defender_skill": 0.5146, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Santi Comesaña", "market_value": 8400000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.5146 } ], "xg_override": 0.1025 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1345, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3712, "after": 1.2461 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9013, "after": 0.8191 }, { "stat": 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"margin": 0.150759 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.052112 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.04426 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.028564 } ], "others_margin": 0.030297 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792129039764404, "model_output": 6.7921, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0357, "total": 6.7921, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.033084 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030004 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02312 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009647 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.008377 } ], "others_margin": -0.035596 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9956, quality 0.461)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8389, "expected_assists": 0.0884, "assists": 0.0892, "assist_rate": 0.0892, "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1438, "goal_rate": 0.1438, "shots_on_target": 0.5056, "total_shots": 1.5213, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, "total_own_half_passes": 7.1888, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9218, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7405, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.6019, "crosses_total": 0.6013, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.4975, "possession_lost": 12.5878, "dispossessed": 0.9121, "duels_lost": 5.3637, "aerial_won": 0.9722, "aerial_lost": 0.7676, "interceptions": 0.3462, "tackles_won": 1.5078, "tackles": 2.921, "clearances": 0.5261, "total_contest": 1.9735, "won_contest": 1.0622, "challenges_lost": 1.8113, "fouls": 1.1742, "fouls_drawn": 0.9373, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1939, "xgot": 0.0709, "ball_carries": 12.0791, "total_progression": 49.631, "progressive_carries": 1.8352, "shots_off_target": 1.0157 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4900000, "quality_factor": 0.4609, "boost_factor": 0.9956, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0361)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8389, "expected_assists": 0.0884, "assists": 0.086, "assist_rate": 0.086, "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1508, "goal_rate": 0.1508, "shots_on_target": 0.5358, "total_shots": 1.5391, "rating": 6.7921, "minutes": 75.89, "total_pass": 23.9293, "accurate_pass": 15.5238, "duels_won": 5.8927, "total_long_balls": 1.2332, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4435, 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0.9191602468490601, "model_output": 0.9192, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1678 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.135 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0693 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0413 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0308 } ], "others": -0.0349, "total": 0.9192, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.167817 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134959 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069349 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.041262 }, { "name": "accuratePass", 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-0.066, "total": 1.3302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.301958 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.137003 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.029132 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.028225 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.027832 } ], "others_margin": -0.065952 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.11037540435791, "model_output": 7.1104, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0874 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0736 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0169 } ], "others": 0.0245, "total": 7.1104, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.087376 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.073625 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028754 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.024018 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.016942 } ], "others_margin": 0.024467 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.456)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6186, "expected_assists": 0.1504, "assists": 0.0988, "assist_rate": 0.0988, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goals": 0.1422, "goal_rate": 0.1422, "shots_on_target": 0.4087, "total_shots": 1.3283, "rating": 7.1104, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 39.8734, "accurate_pass": 33.2401, "duels_won": 4.5533, "total_long_balls": 4.0267, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2212, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0189, "crosses_total": 4.1268, "crosses_accurate": 1.2248, "touches": 57.4002, "possession_lost": 12.416, "dispossessed": 0.7822, "duels_lost": 4.5561, "aerial_won": 0.7692, "aerial_lost": 1.2619, "interceptions": 0.7509, "tackles_won": 1.1641, "tackles": 1.8725, "clearances": 1.7267, "total_contest": 1.5987, "won_contest": 0.9969, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 1.2427, "fouls_drawn": 0.9258, "blocks": 0.3338, "big_chances_created": 0.3052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0075, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 12.6377, "total_progression": 55.7751, "progressive_carries": 1.3653, "shots_off_target": 0.9196 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4500000, "quality_factor": 0.456, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0115)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6186, "expected_assists": 0.1504, "assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goals": 0.1406, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "shots_on_target": 0.4079, "total_shots": 1.3486, "rating": 7.1104, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 39.8734, "accurate_pass": 33.2401, "duels_won": 4.5533, "total_long_balls": 4.0267, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2212, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0189, "crosses_total": 4.0912, "crosses_accurate": 1.2248, "touches": 57.4002, "possession_lost": 12.416, "dispossessed": 0.7822, "duels_lost": 4.5561, "aerial_won": 0.7692, "aerial_lost": 1.2619, "interceptions": 0.7462, "tackles_won": 1.1664, "tackles": 1.8725, "clearances": 1.7267, "total_contest": 1.5987, "won_contest": 0.9969, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 1.2363, "fouls_drawn": 0.923, "blocks": 0.3338, "big_chances_created": 0.3052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0075, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 12.6377, "total_progression": 55.7751, "progressive_carries": 1.3653, "shots_off_target": 0.9196 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0115, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9208, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.1268, "after": 4.0912 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3283, "after": 1.3486 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2427, "after": 1.2363 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6186, "expected_assists": 0.1504, "assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "expected_goals": 0.1088, "goals": 0.1406, "goal_rate": 0.1406, "shots_on_target": 0.4079, "total_shots": 1.3486, "rating": 7.1104, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 39.8734, "accurate_pass": 33.2401, "duels_won": 4.5533, "total_long_balls": 4.0267, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2212, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0189, "crosses_total": 4.0912, "crosses_accurate": 1.2248, "touches": 57.4002, "possession_lost": 12.416, "dispossessed": 0.7822, "duels_lost": 4.5561, "aerial_won": 0.7692, "aerial_lost": 1.2619, "interceptions": 0.7462, "tackles_won": 1.1664, "tackles": 1.8725, "clearances": 1.7267, "total_contest": 1.5987, "won_contest": 0.9969, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 1.2363, "fouls_drawn": 0.923, "blocks": 0.3338, "big_chances_created": 0.3052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0075, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 12.6377, "total_progression": 55.7751, "progressive_carries": 1.3653, "shots_off_target": 0.9196 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6186, "expected_assists": 0.1504, "assists": 0.0977, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "expected_goals": 0.0944, "goals": 0.122, "goal_rate": 0.122, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "total_shots": 1.1706, "rating": 7.1104, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 39.8734, "accurate_pass": 33.2401, "duels_won": 4.5533, "total_long_balls": 4.0267, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2212, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0189, "crosses_total": 4.0912, "crosses_accurate": 1.2248, "touches": 57.4002, "possession_lost": 12.416, "dispossessed": 0.7822, "duels_lost": 4.5561, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2619, "interceptions": 0.7462, "tackles_won": 1.1664, "tackles": 1.8725, "clearances": 1.7267, "total_contest": 1.5987, "won_contest": 0.9969, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 1.2363, "fouls_drawn": 0.923, "blocks": 0.3338, "big_chances_created": 0.3052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0065, "xgot": 0.0766, "ball_carries": 12.6377, "total_progression": 55.7751, "progressive_carries": 1.3653, "shots_off_target": 0.7982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.868, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Foyth", "opponent_faced": "Juan Foyth", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Juan Foyth", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.868, "skill_edge": -0.0418, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.456, "defender_skill": 0.5489, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Juan Foyth", "market_value": 8600000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5489 } ], "xg_override": 0.0944 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3486, "after": 1.1706 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7692, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9196, "after": 0.7982 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4079, "after": 0.3541 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1406, "after": 0.122 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1088, "after": 0.0944 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0883, "after": 0.0766 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6186, "expected_assists": 0.1504, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0944, "goal_rate": 0.122, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "total_shots": 1.1706, "rating": 7.1104, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 39.8734, "accurate_pass": 33.2401, "duels_won": 4.5533, "total_long_balls": 4.0267, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2212, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0189, "crosses_total": 4.0912, "crosses_accurate": 1.2248, "touches": 57.4002, "possession_lost": 12.416, "dispossessed": 0.7822, "duels_lost": 4.5561, 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"team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6186, "expected_assists": 0.1652, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goal_rate": 0.122, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "total_shots": 1.1706, "rating": 7.1104, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 39.8734, "accurate_pass": 33.2401, "duels_won": 4.5533, "total_long_balls": 4.0267, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2212, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0189, "crosses_total": 4.0912, "crosses_accurate": 1.2248, "touches": 57.4002, "possession_lost": 12.416, "dispossessed": 0.7822, "duels_lost": 4.5561, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2619, "interceptions": 0.7462, "tackles_won": 1.1664, "tackles": 1.8725, "clearances": 1.7267, "total_contest": 1.5987, "won_contest": 0.9969, "challenges_lost": 0.6989, "fouls": 1.2363, "fouls_drawn": 0.923, "blocks": 0.3338, "big_chances_created": 0.3052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0065, "xgot": 0.0906, "ball_carries": 12.6377, "total_progression": 55.7751, "progressive_carries": 1.3653, "shots_off_target": 0.7982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.868, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Foyth", "opponent_faced": "Juan Foyth", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1911, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0944, "after": 0.1116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1504, "after": 0.1652 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.3338, "big_chances_created": 0.3052, "big_chances_missed": 0.0065, "xgot": 0.0906, "ball_carries": 12.6377, "total_progression": 55.7751, "progressive_carries": 1.3653, "shots_off_target": 0.7982, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.868, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Juan Foyth", "opponent_faced": "Juan Foyth", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1911, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2628, "fifa_rank": 1553.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6186, "expected_assists": 0.1652, "assist_rate": 0.0977, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "goal_rate": 0.122, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3541, "total_shots": 1.1706, "rating": 7.1104, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 39.8734, "accurate_pass": 33.2401, "duels_won": 4.5533, "total_long_balls": 4.0267, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7242, "total_own_half_passes": 14.3371, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2212, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.5363, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0189, "crosses_total": 4.0912, "crosses_accurate": 1.2248, "touches": 57.4002, "possession_lost": 12.416, "dispossessed": 0.7822, "duels_lost": 4.5561, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.2619, "interceptions": 0.7462, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126954 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.085603 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.073566 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.058203 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.039475 } ], "others_margin": 0.209563 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.598865032196045, "model_output": 2.5989, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2965 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1411 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0221 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4317, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.4585 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.3888 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3186 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2649 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", 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0.0579 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0221 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0086 } ], "others": 0.0069, "total": 0.4929, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057935 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022141 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009964 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009663 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.00865 } ], "others_margin": 0.006885 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7058024406433105, "model_output": 6.7058, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0017, quality 0.541)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1451, "tackles": 2.1991, "tackles_won": 1.5334, "clearances": 2.6033, "aerial_won": 0.9289, "total_shots": 0.4938, "rating": 6.7058, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1128, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.4293 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11600000, "quality_factor": 0.5411, "boost_factor": 1.0017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1451, "tackles": 2.1991, "tackles_won": 1.5334, "clearances": 2.6033, "aerial_won": 0.9289, "total_shots": 0.4938, "rating": 6.7058, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1128, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.4293 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1451, "tackles": 2.1991, "tackles_won": 1.5334, "clearances": 2.6033, "aerial_won": 0.9289, "total_shots": 0.4938, "rating": 6.7058, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1128, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.4293, "opponent_faced": "Gerard Moreno", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gerard Moreno", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1451, "tackles": 2.1991, "tackles_won": 1.5334, "clearances": 2.6033, "aerial_won": 0.9289, "total_shots": 0.4938, "rating": 6.7058, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0154, "expected_assists": 0.0723, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0037, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.4293, "opponent_faced": "Gerard Moreno", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1451, "tackles": 2.1991, "tackles_won": 1.5334, "clearances": 2.6033, "aerial_won": 0.9289, "total_shots": 0.4938, "rating": 6.7058, "minutes": 86.62, "total_pass": 42.3658, "accurate_pass": 33.3763, "duels_won": 4.2434, "total_long_balls": 6.3258, "accurate_long_balls": 2.542, "total_own_half_passes": 22.213, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.9536, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.1529, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.423, "crosses_total": 2.5801, "crosses_accurate": 0.2673, "touches": 63.6983, "possession_lost": 14.1463, "dispossessed": 0.342, "duels_lost": 2.9565, "aerial_lost": 0.4674, "total_contest": 0.7919, "won_contest": 0.3773, "ball_recovery": 4.1601, "challenges_lost": 0.9137, "fouls": 0.819, "fouls_drawn": 0.0816, "blocks": 0.1641, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0182, "expected_assists": 0.0795, "shots_on_target": 0.0644, "big_chances_created": 0.2077, "xgot": 0.0044, "ball_carries": 9.4929, "total_progression": 25.4475, "progressive_carries": 0.2039, "key_pass": 0.7695, "shots_off_target": 0.4293, "opponent_faced": "Gerard Moreno", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0723, "after": 0.0795 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0632, "total": 6.8746, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.051196 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020688 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.020632 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.014696 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.008673 } ], "others_margin": 0.063139 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 44, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0882 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0869 } ], "others": 0.2303, "total": 1.6361, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.172993 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.139102 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.078902 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.069239 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063778 } ], "others_margin": 0.15176 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.37064024806022644, "model_output": 0.3706, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1056 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0432 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0918, "total": 0.3706, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.10559 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.043159 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0203 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014501 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.011516 } ], "others_margin": -0.091785 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7446064949035645, "model_output": 6.7446, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0229 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0462, "total": 6.7446, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022926 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014714 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014527 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01385 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013461 } ], "others_margin": -0.046337 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9945, quality 0.468)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8702, "tackles": 1.2859, "tackles_won": 0.7267, "clearances": 4.8482, "aerial_won": 1.6271, "total_shots": 0.3686, "rating": 6.7446, "minutes": 84.61, "total_pass": 38.4502, "accurate_pass": 30.2555, "duels_won": 3.8707, "total_long_balls": 7.9821, "accurate_long_balls": 2.047, "total_own_half_passes": 29.2367, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1742, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.8197, "possession_lost": 9.2965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1172, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8817, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.5586, "fouls_drawn": 0.838, "blocks": 2.047, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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0.604, "fouls_drawn": 0.8755, "blocks": 2.047, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1531, "total_progression": 13.9707, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3686 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8457, "tackles": 1.2859, "tackles_won": 0.747, "clearances": 4.8482, "aerial_won": 1.6271, "total_shots": 0.3686, "rating": 6.7446, "minutes": 84.61, "total_pass": 38.4502, "accurate_pass": 30.2555, "duels_won": 3.8707, "total_long_balls": 7.9821, "accurate_long_balls": 2.047, "total_own_half_passes": 29.2367, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1742, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.8197, "possession_lost": 9.2965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1172, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8817, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.604, "fouls_drawn": 0.8755, "blocks": 2.047, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1531, "total_progression": 13.9707, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3686, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8457, "tackles": 1.2859, "tackles_won": 0.747, "clearances": 4.8482, "aerial_won": 1.6271, "total_shots": 0.3686, "rating": 6.7446, "minutes": 84.61, "total_pass": 38.4502, "accurate_pass": 30.2555, "duels_won": 3.8707, "total_long_balls": 7.9821, "accurate_long_balls": 2.047, "total_own_half_passes": 29.2367, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1742, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.8197, "possession_lost": 9.2965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1172, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8817, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.604, "fouls_drawn": 0.8755, "blocks": 2.047, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1531, "total_progression": 13.9707, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3686, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8457, "tackles": 1.2859, "tackles_won": 0.747, "clearances": 4.8482, "aerial_won": 1.6271, "total_shots": 0.3686, "rating": 6.7446, "minutes": 84.61, "total_pass": 38.4502, "accurate_pass": 30.2555, "duels_won": 3.8707, "total_long_balls": 7.9821, "accurate_long_balls": 2.047, "total_own_half_passes": 29.2367, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1742, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.8197, "possession_lost": 9.2965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1172, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8817, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.604, "fouls_drawn": 0.8755, "blocks": 2.047, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.1531, "total_progression": 13.9707, "progressive_carries": 0.3866, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3686, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9747 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8457, "tackles": 1.2859, "tackles_won": 0.747, "clearances": 4.8482, "aerial_won": 1.6271, "total_shots": 0.3686, "rating": 6.7446, "minutes": 84.61, "total_pass": 38.4502, "accurate_pass": 30.2555, "duels_won": 3.8707, "total_long_balls": 7.9821, "accurate_long_balls": 2.047, "total_own_half_passes": 29.2367, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0812, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1742, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.8197, "possession_lost": 9.2965, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.1172, "aerial_lost": 0.5586, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8817, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.604, "fouls_drawn": 0.8755, "blocks": 2.047, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1258 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 0.4026, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.125837 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048551 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033839 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010443 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.010084 } ], "others_margin": -0.032103 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792153358459473, "model_output": 6.7922, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3813, "goals_prevented": 0.0768, "rating": 7.1717, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.7308, "accurate_pass": 14.8909, "total_long_balls": 19.9714, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1316, "touches": 46.4721, "clearances": 0.8447, "ball_recovery": 11.7664, "high_claims": 2.1131, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.381, "sweeper_actions": 1.5964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5964, "saves_inside_box": 3.1324, "possession_lost": 13.5312, "duels_won": 0.6914, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3103, "won_contest": 0.3103, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6113, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.29 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 290000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.3813, "goals_prevented": 0.0768, "rating": 7.1717, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.7308, "accurate_pass": 14.8909, "total_long_balls": 19.9714, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1316, "touches": 46.4721, "clearances": 0.8447, "ball_recovery": 11.7664, "high_claims": 2.1131, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.381, "sweeper_actions": 1.5964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5964, "saves_inside_box": 3.1324, "possession_lost": 13.5312, "duels_won": 0.6914, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3103, "won_contest": 0.3103, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6113, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.3813, "goals_prevented": 0.0768, "rating": 7.1717, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.7308, "accurate_pass": 14.8909, "total_long_balls": 19.9714, "accurate_long_balls": 7.1316, "touches": 46.4721, "clearances": 0.8447, "ball_recovery": 11.7664, "high_claims": 2.1131, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0.381, "sweeper_actions": 1.5964, "sweeper_accurate": 1.5964, "saves_inside_box": 3.1324, "possession_lost": 13.5312, "duels_won": 0.6914, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3103, "won_contest": 0.3103, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6113, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.29, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.046, "shots_faced": 19.4, "expected_saves": 4.74, "high_pressure_saves": 1.64, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 2.046 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083587, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.7879 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1310, "combined_rank_score": 568.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 180.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 957.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0561, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 }, { "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking": 1308 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 }, { "player_name": "Javier Guerra", "ranking": 1314 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gonçalves", "ranking": 1315 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 44, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.392222187561249, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.131, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9979, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Espanyol", "competition": "La 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"won_contest": 0.0922, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1592, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6673, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3167 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-30T10:03:31.159511+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1420, "players": 201, "rows": 7335 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-16", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 5.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 1.4299, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 13.3167, "totalLongBalls": 14.4926, "commanding_index": 1.8494, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.4434, "distribution_accuracy": 0.8664 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.6742160320281982, "model_output": 2.6742, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0453 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.038 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9243, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.25 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0305 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0264 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0226 } ], "others": -0.0016, "total": 2.6742, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.07304, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089362 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.011353 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009813 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.009439 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.008471 } ], "others_margin": -0.000593 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": 0.004193077329546213, "model_output": 0.0042, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0392 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0231, "items": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 0.0042, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023055, "item_margins": [ { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.031734 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.012612 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.011762 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.010872 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.010268 } ], "others_margin": -0.026476 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.056057453155518, "model_output": 7.0561, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0061, "total": 7.0561, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.032565 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018042 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.016094 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.015007 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.01397 } ], "others_margin": 0.006146 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6686, "goals_prevented": 0.0042, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1589, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 650000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0133)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6514, "goals_prevented": 0.0042, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 25.5322, "accurate_pass": 16.4435, "total_long_balls": 14.4622, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4118, "touches": 38.8499, "clearances": 1.0683, "ball_recovery": 10.9293, "high_claims": 1.8036, "punches": 0.6163, "aerial_won": 0.2241, "sweeper_actions": 1.602, "sweeper_accurate": 1.4323, "saves_inside_box": 2.0119, "possession_lost": 9.2295, "duels_won": 0.3381, "duels_lost": 0.2329, "total_contest": 0.092, "won_contest": 0.092, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1568, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6365, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2887 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0133, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.6686, "after": 2.6514 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.13)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4086, "goals_prevented": 0.0006, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.39, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1541, "appearance_probability": 0.131 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4086, "goals_prevented": 0.0006, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4086, "goals_prevented": 0.0006, "rating": 7.0561, "minutes": 4.39, "total_pass": 3.9348, "accurate_pass": 2.5342, "total_long_balls": 2.2288, "accurate_long_balls": 0.834, "touches": 5.9873, "clearances": 0.1646, "ball_recovery": 1.6843, "high_claims": 0.278, "punches": 0.095, "aerial_won": 0.0345, "sweeper_actions": 0.2469, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2207, "saves_inside_box": 0.3101, "possession_lost": 1.4224, "duels_won": 0.0521, "duels_lost": 0.0359, "total_contest": 0.0142, "won_contest": 0.0142, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0242, "total_own_half_passes": 2.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.048, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.131, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.131, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.218, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7327 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0462 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0004, "total": 0.6647, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.758937 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.069204 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.04055 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.022534 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.021499 } ], "others_margin": 0.000506 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18942372500896454, "model_output": 0.1894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2525 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0357, "total": 0.1894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.252527 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015121 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.014142 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.011922 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011804 } ], "others_margin": -0.035727 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.778461456298828, "model_output": 6.7785, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0284 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": 0.0092, "total": 6.7785, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.028388 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.021126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013447 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.011143 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.008984 } ], "others_margin": 0.009258 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.441)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3691, "tackles": 0.5774, "tackles_won": 0.3177, "clearances": 1.1735, "aerial_won": 0.6622, "total_shots": 0.1887, "rating": 6.7785, "minutes": 21.47, "total_pass": 11.3731, "accurate_pass": 8.8669, "duels_won": 1.5879, "total_long_balls": 2.3093, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3046, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8498, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4274, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.5233, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4395, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.6274, "possession_lost": 3.1227, "dispossessed": 0.1941, "duels_lost": 1.1791, "aerial_lost": 0.3343, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.8448, "challenges_lost": 0.2283, "fouls": 0.4224, "fouls_drawn": 0.2804, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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{ "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0044, "total": 0.0174, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.392179, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.596518 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.493736 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.196811 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.074585 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.069766 } ], "others_margin": -0.227805 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.024027766659855843, "model_output": 0.024, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0322 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.095, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0361 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { 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"importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3383 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2048 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0383 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0347 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 0.2969, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.338316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.204839 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.038335 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035329 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03465 } ], "others_margin": -0.035763 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.676988124847412, "model_output": 6.677, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0671 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0326 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 } ], "others": -0.0316, "total": 6.677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067122 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.03261 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.022218 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013801 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010925 } ], "others_margin": -0.031528 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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2.3645, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8073, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2427, "crosses_total": 0.1097, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2172, "possession_lost": 3.4181, "dispossessed": 0.3585, "duels_lost": 1.884, "aerial_won": 0.5285, "aerial_lost": 0.6654, "interceptions": 0.3125, "tackles_won": 0.7031, "tackles": 0.7085, "clearances": 0.8339, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4854, "fouls": 0.3733, "fouls_drawn": 0.4689, "blocks": 0.1888, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8216, "total_progression": 21.5103, "progressive_carries": 0.9079, "shots_off_target": 0.2318 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0091, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2384, "prior_reliability": 0.14, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7085, "after": 0.7031 } ] }, { "step": 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4847 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0445 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0359 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0276 } ], "others": 0.0456, "total": 0.7351, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484744 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.137253 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044451 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.03595 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6704, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "assists": 0.0844, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0858, "shots_on_target": 0.2406, "total_shots": 0.7334, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 19.59, "total_pass": 8.1123, "accurate_pass": 6.9914, "duels_won": 1.4012, "total_long_balls": 0.9396, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6593, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0606, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9308, "crosses_total": 2.2264, "crosses_accurate": 0.6681, "touches": 15.2851, "possession_lost": 3.5694, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6078, "aerial_won": 0.2803, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.61, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.5605, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8901, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.7175, "fouls_drawn": 0.5605, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3878, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 5.6144, "total_progression": 17.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.9978, "shots_off_target": 0.4928 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6800000, "quality_factor": 0.4842, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.6 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "assists": 0.0955, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goals": 0.097, "goal_rate": 0.097, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.16, "projection_minutes": 19.59, "minutes_scale": 1.1311, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "assists": 0.0955, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goals": 0.097, "goal_rate": 0.097, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0536 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0639, "after": 0.0383 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0881, "after": 0.0491 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3488, "combined_rank_score": 1474.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 52.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2897.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6329, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tyrhys Dolan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Leandro González Pírez", "ranking": 3483 }, { "player_name": "Mahdi Camara", "ranking": 3484 }, { "player_name": "Saud Abdulhamid", "ranking": 3485 }, { "player_name": "Orel Mangala", "ranking": 3486 }, { "player_name": "Lassine Sinayoko", "ranking": 3487 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yann Gboho", "ranking": 3489 }, { "player_name": "Ansu Fati", "ranking": 3490 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Edwards", "ranking": 3491 }, { "player_name": "Ismaël Doukouré", "ranking": 3492 }, { "player_name": "Unai Marrero", "ranking": 3493 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.778, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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}, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2637 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0148, "total": 0.4358, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.484383 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.05093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04186 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.040895 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.027144 } ], "others_margin": 0.03426 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6328935623168945, "model_output": 6.6329, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": -0.0446, "total": 6.6329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061605 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.016967 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015136 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01317 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.012848 } ], "others_margin": -0.044565 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goals": 0.0566, "goal_rate": 0.0566, "shots_on_target": 0.2049, "total_shots": 0.5565, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "key_pass": 0.4361, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 27.82, "total_pass": 9.9011, "accurate_pass": 8.0581, "duels_won": 2.0709, "total_long_balls": 0.1657, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0509, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5238, "crosses_total": 2.0647, "crosses_accurate": 0.2455, "touches": 19.5463, "possession_lost": 5.9206, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.8699, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 1.0433, "won_contest": 0.4201, "ball_recovery": 1.8036, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2893, "fouls_drawn": 0.538, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4125, "tackles_won": 0.5398, "tackles": 0.8324, "clearances": 0.322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0509, "xgot": 0.0405, "offsides": 0.1826, "ball_carries": 5.9912, "total_progression": 18.807, "progressive_carries": 0.6966, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10800000, "quality_factor": 0.5318, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goals": 0.0573, "goal_rate": 0.0573, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.5551, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "key_pass": 0.4361, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 27.82, "total_pass": 9.9011, "accurate_pass": 8.0581, "duels_won": 2.0709, "total_long_balls": 0.1657, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0509, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5238, "crosses_total": 2.0501, "crosses_accurate": 0.2455, "touches": 19.5463, "possession_lost": 5.9206, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.8699, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 1.0433, "won_contest": 0.4201, "ball_recovery": 1.8036, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2926, "fouls_drawn": 0.5368, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4142, "tackles_won": 0.5358, "tackles": 0.8324, "clearances": 0.322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0509, "xgot": 0.0405, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.9912, "total_progression": 18.807, "progressive_carries": 0.6966, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3091, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0647, "after": 2.0501 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 25.7 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0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0374, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2666 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 } ], "others": -0.0353, "total": 0.3142, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.491479 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.058215 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.044176 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.043281 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.038228 } ], "others_margin": -0.106484 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.609364986419678, "model_output": 6.6094, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0538 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0133 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0463, "total": 6.6094, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.053785 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.030939 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013294 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009188 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.007861 } ], "others_margin": -0.046411 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 12, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.065, "goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "shots_on_target": 0.2236, "total_shots": 0.5206, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3137, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 12.65, "total_pass": 3.3544, "accurate_pass": 3.162, "duels_won": 0.1924, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.9055, "possession_lost": 1.2378, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9968, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 0.7321, "won_contest": 0.1924, "ball_recovery": 0.2663, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7321, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1552, "total_progression": 0.5854, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.297 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.65, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.065, "goals": 0.0697, "goal_rate": 0.0697, "shots_on_target": 0.2236, "total_shots": 0.5206, "expected_assists": 0.028, "key_pass": 0.3137, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 12.65, "total_pass": 3.3544, "accurate_pass": 3.162, "duels_won": 0.1924, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4256, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.9055, "possession_lost": 1.2378, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9968, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 0.7321, "won_contest": 0.1924, "ball_recovery": 0.2663, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.7321, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1552, "total_progression": 0.5854, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.297 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.9984, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.7 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.49, "projection_minutes": 12.65, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.568 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goals": 0.1046, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0975, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.042, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0481, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.568 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0975, "after": 0.0655 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.042, "after": 0.0262 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0481, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2281, "fifa_rank": 968.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0619, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0481, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0619, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "scorer_weight": 0.0687, "squad_weight_total": 1.3186, "weight_share": 0.0521, "finishing_factor": 1.0481, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.4689, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4689, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0655, "goal_rate": 0.1046, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3354, "total_shots": 0.7809, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "key_pass": 0.4705, "rating": 6.6094, "minutes": 25.49, "total_pass": 5.0316, "accurate_pass": 4.743, "duels_won": 0.2886, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1384, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.3582, "possession_lost": 1.8567, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.9952, "aerial_lost": 0.725, "total_contest": 1.0981, "won_contest": 0.2886, "ball_recovery": 0.3994, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0981, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.2328, "total_progression": 0.8781, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.4455, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.568, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.49, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0619, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0256, "finishing_factor": 1.0481, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0256, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.021, "squad_weight_total": 0.9085, "weight_share": 0.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.568, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.19, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.19, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1322, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Cyril Ngonge": { "player_id": 877037, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 179, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0468, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0536, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083221, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0146, "expected_assists": 0.2677, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083330, "match_date": "2026-04-23", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0848, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0834, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.484)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6704, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "assists": 0.0844, "assist_rate": 0.0844, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "goals": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.0858, "shots_on_target": 0.2406, "total_shots": 0.7334, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 19.59, "total_pass": 8.1123, "accurate_pass": 6.9914, "duels_won": 1.4012, "total_long_balls": 0.9396, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6593, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0606, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0606, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0518, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9308, "crosses_total": 2.2264, "crosses_accurate": 0.6681, "touches": 15.2851, "possession_lost": 3.5694, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6078, "aerial_won": 0.2803, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.61, "tackles_won": 0.2802, "tackles": 0.5605, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.8901, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.7175, "fouls_drawn": 0.5605, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3878, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0235, "ball_carries": 5.6144, "total_progression": 17.5172, "progressive_carries": 0.9978, "shots_off_target": 0.4928 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6800000, "quality_factor": 0.4842, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.6 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "assists": 0.0955, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goals": 0.097, "goal_rate": 0.097, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.16, "projection_minutes": 19.59, "minutes_scale": 1.1311, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "assists": 0.0955, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goals": 0.097, "goal_rate": 0.097, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0881, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0266, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0536 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0639, "after": 0.0383 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0881, "after": 0.0491 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0536, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4446, "fifa_rank": 4144.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0536, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.097, "scorer_weight": 0.0479, "squad_weight_total": 1.3186, "weight_share": 0.0363, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.4689, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4689, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7583, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.097, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2721, "total_shots": 0.8295, "rating": 6.7187, "minutes": 22.16, "total_pass": 9.1755, "accurate_pass": 7.9077, "duels_won": 1.5848, "total_long_balls": 1.0627, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7457, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3307, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8449, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.577, "crosses_total": 2.5182, "crosses_accurate": 0.7557, "touches": 17.2883, "possession_lost": 4.0372, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.8185, "aerial_won": 0.317, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.6899, "tackles_won": 0.3169, "tackles": 0.634, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0068, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.3297, "fouls": 0.8115, "fouls_drawn": 0.634, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4386, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0159, "ball_carries": 6.3502, "total_progression": 19.8129, "progressive_carries": 1.1286, "shots_off_target": 0.5574, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.16, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0468, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0536, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0955, "provider_weight": 0.0517, "squad_weight_total": 0.9085, "weight_share": 0.0569, "creation_factor": 1.0536, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.19, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.19, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1322, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] }, "Tyrhys Dolan": { "player_id": 1063015, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 170, "market_value": 10800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0151, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, 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"history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.532)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goals": 0.0566, "goal_rate": 0.0566, "shots_on_target": 0.2049, "total_shots": 0.5565, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "key_pass": 0.4361, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 27.82, "total_pass": 9.9011, "accurate_pass": 8.0581, "duels_won": 2.0709, "total_long_balls": 0.1657, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0509, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5238, "crosses_total": 2.0647, "crosses_accurate": 0.2455, "touches": 19.5463, "possession_lost": 5.9206, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.8699, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 1.0433, "won_contest": 0.4201, "ball_recovery": 1.8036, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2893, "fouls_drawn": 0.538, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4125, "tackles_won": 0.5398, "tackles": 0.8324, "clearances": 0.322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0509, "xgot": 0.0405, "offsides": 0.1826, "ball_carries": 5.9912, "total_progression": 18.807, "progressive_carries": 0.6966, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10800000, "quality_factor": 0.5318, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0124)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0471, "goals": 0.0573, "goal_rate": 0.0573, "shots_on_target": 0.2037, "total_shots": 0.5551, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "key_pass": 0.4361, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 27.82, "total_pass": 9.9011, "accurate_pass": 8.0581, "duels_won": 2.0709, "total_long_balls": 0.1657, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0509, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.8814, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.5238, "crosses_total": 2.0501, "crosses_accurate": 0.2455, "touches": 19.5463, "possession_lost": 5.9206, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.8699, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 1.0433, "won_contest": 0.4201, "ball_recovery": 1.8036, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2926, "fouls_drawn": 0.5368, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4142, "tackles_won": 0.5358, "tackles": 0.8324, "clearances": 0.322, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0509, "xgot": 0.0405, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.9912, "total_progression": 18.807, "progressive_carries": 0.6966, "shots_off_target": 0.3516 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0124, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3091, "prior_reliability": 0.1867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Espanyol" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.0647, "after": 2.0501 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0374, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.67, "projection_minutes": 27.82, "minutes_scale": 0.9226, "appearance_probability": 0.342 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goals": 0.0529, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0374, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0435, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0411, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0374, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 1.0072, xG scale 1.1825, xA scale 1.0990, team xA 0.95 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0151, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1005, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0072, "squad_xa_sum": 0.867, "team_expected_assists": 0.9528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1825, "xa_scale": 1.099, "opponent_lambda": 1.848, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.342 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0435, "after": 0.0176 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0411, "after": 0.0154 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0151, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1005, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3488, "fifa_rank": 2897.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0151, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1005, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0172, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "scorer_weight": 0.0194, "squad_weight_total": 1.3186, "weight_share": 0.0147, "finishing_factor": 1.1005, "appearance_weight": 0.342, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roberto Fernández", "weight": 0.4689, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4689, "runner_up": "Álex Calatrava", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1502 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0176, "goal_rate": 0.0529, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1879, "total_shots": 0.5123, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "key_pass": 0.4023, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 25.67, "total_pass": 9.1345, "accurate_pass": 7.4342, "duels_won": 1.9106, "total_long_balls": 0.1529, "accurate_long_balls": 0.047, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3486, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.0961, "crosses_total": 1.8914, "crosses_accurate": 0.2265, "touches": 18.0329, "possession_lost": 5.4622, "dispossessed": 0.1109, "duels_lost": 1.7251, "aerial_lost": 0.4958, "total_contest": 0.9625, "won_contest": 0.3876, "ball_recovery": 1.664, "challenges_lost": 0.4107, "fouls": 0.2699, "fouls_drawn": 0.4952, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3821, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.7679, "clearances": 0.2971, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.047, "xgot": 0.0151, "offsides": 0.1817, "ball_carries": 5.5273, "total_progression": 17.3508, "progressive_carries": 0.6427, "shots_off_target": 0.3244, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.342, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.67, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 1.95, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0172, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0151, "finishing_factor": 1.1005, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0151, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0123, "squad_weight_total": 0.9085, "weight_share": 0.0136, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.342, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Javier Hernández", "weight": 0.19, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.19, "runner_up": "Edu Expósito", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1322, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roberto Fernández" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.19, "expected_assists": 0.95, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 332, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.422, "xg_multiplier": 1.1488, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) is slightly favored against Leandro Cabrera and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.422 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.308, "xg_contribution": 0.3257, "xg_multiplier": 1.1585, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.692 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (ST) is slightly favored against Leandro Cabrera and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €3M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.326 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Gerard Moreno", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2484, "xg_multiplier": 0.9354, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leandro Cabrera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gerard Moreno (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Leandro Cabrera and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.248 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tajon Buchanan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.589, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "xg_contribution": 0.1438, "xg_multiplier": 0.9446, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "RB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.578 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tajon Buchanan (LM) is evenly matched against Omar El Hilali in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Santi Comesaña", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.517, "xg_contribution": 0.0642, "xg_multiplier": 1.099, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álex Calatrava", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.483 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santi Comesaña (CM) is slightly favored against Álex Calatrava in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Maciá", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 194, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.564, "xg_contribution": 0.0507, "xg_multiplier": 1.1673, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Álex Calatrava", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.436 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Maciá (CM) is slightly favored against Álex Calatrava in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Juan Foyth" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "xg_contribution": 0.0944, "xg_multiplier": 0.868, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Foyth", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Juan Foyth in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javier Hernández", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.358, "xg_contribution": 0.1025, "xg_multiplier": 0.9088, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Santi Comesaña", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.642 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Hernández (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Santi Comesaña in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.103 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3496, "xg_multiplier": 0.9469, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is evenly matched against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.350 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Zaragoza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 165, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.638, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0895, "xg_multiplier": 0.7784, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Zaragoza (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Álex Calatrava", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4900000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.461, "defenders": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.1078, "xg_multiplier": 0.901, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Santi Comesaña", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Calatrava (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Santi Comesaña in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Moscardo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0778, "xg_multiplier": 0.9842, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Santi Comesaña", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Moscardo (CDM) is evenly matched against Santi Comesaña in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.545, "away_midfield_power": 0.497, "home_creative_power": 0.519, "away_creative_power": 0.498, "home_defensive_power": 0.458, "away_defensive_power": 0.474, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.523, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Santi Comesaña", "Carlos Maciá", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Javier Hernández", "Álex Calatrava", "Gabriel Moscardo", "Edu Expósito" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Carlos Maciá vs Gabriel Moscardo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.008, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.998 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.848, "away_lambda": 1.191, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gerard Moreno": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Cabrera", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Santi Comesaña": { "opponents": [ "Álex Calatrava", "Javier Hernández", "Gabriel Moscardo", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Maciá": { "opponents": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juan Foyth": { "opponents": [ "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexander Freeman": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Péter Gulácsi": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Bryan Zaragoza" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Sergi Cardona": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Leandro Cabrera": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Alberto Moleiro", "Gerard Moreno" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vanja Drkušić": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Alberto Moleiro", "Gerard Moreno" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álex Calatrava": { "opponents": [ "Santi Comesaña", "Carlos Maciá" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "Juan Foyth", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Zaragoza": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gabriel Moscardo": { "opponents": [ "Santi Comesaña", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Fortuño": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Quilindschy Hartman": { "opponents": [ "Gerard Moreno" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Carlos Maciá vs Gabriel Moscardo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.25, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1471, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.093, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.987, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9605, "home_midfield_factor": 1.008, "away_midfield_factor": 0.998, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5992, "away_avg_quality": 0.5058, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0934, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.7629, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.8044, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.8549, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2174, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1196, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0696, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2548, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.2786 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.008, "result": 1.2888 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.96, "result": 1.2373 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.6601 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9884, "result": 1.6409 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.6584 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.987, "result": 1.6367 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1471, "result": 1.7838 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.7838, "result": 1.7838, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2174, "factor": 1.1196, "pre": 1.7838, "result": 1.9971 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.9971 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1662, "result": 2.1632 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 1.6494, "result": 2.046 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.046, "result": 2.046, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.02, "result": 2.087 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.05, "pre": 2.087, "result": 2.1914, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 2.191 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 2.191 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 2.191, "result": 2.191, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.848 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8216, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9537 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.998, "result": 0.9518 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.07, "result": 1.0184 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0184 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9461, "result": 0.9635 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.9738 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9605, "result": 0.9354 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.093, "result": 1.0284 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0284, "result": 1.0284, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2174, "factor": 0.9304, "pre": 1.0284, "result": 0.9568 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9568 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1308, "result": 1.0878 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 1.642, "result": 1.2142 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.2142, "result": 1.214, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.2, "result": 1.457 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.95, "pre": 1.457, "result": 1.3841, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.384 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.384 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.384, "result": 1.384, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.191 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1662, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1308, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.649, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.642, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 2.191, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.384, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.046, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.2142, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.848, "final_away_lambda": 1.191 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9884, "attack_index": 0.997, "defense_concede_index": 0.967, "form_multiplier": 1.015, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.51, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.46, "team_ppg": 1.26, "opponent_ppg": 1.01 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9461, "attack_index": 0.907, "defense_concede_index": 0.967, "form_multiplier": 0.985, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.37, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.46, "team_ppg": 1.01, "opponent_ppg": 1.26 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Villarreal vs Espanyol. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.046, Away 1.214). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.848, Away 1.191 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 8, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 7, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Villarreal", "away_squad": "Espanyol", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 1.649, "away_empirical_lambda": 1.642, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.848, "away_lambda": 1.191, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.046, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.214 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-30T13:31:43Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }