{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Barcelona", "away_team": "Alavés", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-1", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0722, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "3-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0722, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0187, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Barcelona", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0987, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0722 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0697 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.056 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.056 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0541 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0059, "0-1": 0.0074, "0-2": 0.0048, "0-3": 0.0021, "0-4": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0224, "1-1": 0.0291, "1-2": 0.0187, "1-3": 0.008, "1-4": 0.0026, "1-5": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0435, "2-1": 0.056, "2-2": 0.0361, "2-3": 0.0155, "2-4": 0.005, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.056, "3-1": 0.0722, "3-2": 0.0465, "3-3": 0.02, "3-4": 0.0064, "3-5": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0541, "4-1": 0.0697, "4-2": 0.0449, "4-3": 0.0193, "4-4": 0.0062, "4-5": 0.0016, "5-0": 0.0418, "5-1": 0.0538, "5-2": 0.0347, "5-3": 0.0149, "5-4": 0.0048, "5-5": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0269, "6-1": 0.0347, "6-2": 0.0223, "6-3": 0.0096, "6-4": 0.0031, "6-5": 0.0008, "7-0": 0.0149, "7-1": 0.0191, "7-2": 0.0123, "7-3": 0.0053, "7-4": 0.0017, "8-0": 0.0072, "8-1": 0.0092, "8-2": 0.0059, "8-3": 0.0026, "8-4": 0.0008, "9-0": 0.0031, "9-1": 0.004, "9-2": 0.0026, "9-3": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8229, "draw": 0.0987, "away_win": 0.0783 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8868, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1132, "btts_yes": 0.709, "btts_no": 0.291, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2758, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0211 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.91, "MCR": 7.1, "ATR": 7.67, "GK": 6.92 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.87, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Barcelona vs Alavés. Most likely scoreline: 3-1. Lambdas derived from 8 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Barcelona 7W-2D-1L vs Alavés over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lamine Yamal, Raphinha (2), Toni Martínez", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Pedri vs Antonio Blanco). Total antagonist xG — Home: 2.38, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.83, "home_lambda": 3.863, "away_lambda": 1.288, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 7, "away_wins": 1, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0429, "away_multiplier": 0.9571 }, "modal_scoreline": "3-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0722, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8229, "draw": 0.0987, "away_win": 0.0783 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8229, "fair_spread": 2.575, "fair_total": 5.151, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 3.863, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.288, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8868, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.709, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2758, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0211, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Raphinha (Barcelona)", "estimate": 1.2119, "probability": 0.7024, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Toni Martínez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.2914, "probability": 0.2528, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.4069, "probability": 0.3343, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ángel Pérez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.2102, "probability": 0.1896, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.151, "expected_total_shots": 39, "expected_total_passes": 990, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.5, "possession_home_pct": 53.1, "possession_away_pct": 46.9, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8229, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.58 goals and fair total 5.15.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 20 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Raphinha against Jonny Otto in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Lamine Yamal, Raphinha (2); bench watchlist: Dani Olmo, Gabriel Jesus.", "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Toni Martínez; bench watchlist: Carlos Vicente, Miguel Rodríguez, Carles Aleñá.", "Assist usage should flow through Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Ángel Pérez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 20 total first-half shots, and 2.58 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Barcelona": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Joan García": { "player_id": 930267, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0295, "rating": 6.9186, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 33, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.3048, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 3, "sweeper_accurate": 3, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 2.4737, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4285, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.98, "high_pressure_saves": 1.03, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421080, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1364 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 5, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1033 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2256 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "ball_recovery": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.6184 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416329, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.4648 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416325, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.558 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2351 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 30, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 15 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2641 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1397 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 123, "combined_rank_score": 114.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 140.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.34, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 89.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9186, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking": 122 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "João Neves", "ranking": 127 }, { "player_name": "Davron Merganov", "ranking": 128 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 39, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0104, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 270.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 39 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Barcelona, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.9644, "goals_prevented": -0.0292, "rating": 6.9186, "minutes": 86.05, "total_pass": 21.5532, "accurate_pass": 19.2947, "total_long_balls": 3.8213, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8303, "touches": 32.7628, "clearances": 1.9211, "ball_recovery": 8.3322, "high_claims": 0.5469, "punches": 0.3017, "aerial_won": 0.2242, "sweeper_actions": 2.9486, "sweeper_accurate": 2.9486, "saves_inside_box": 1.1045, "possession_lost": 2.4482, "duels_won": 0.2807, "duels_lost": 0.0815, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.086, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7853, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.7312 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:28:35.350989+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 201, "rows": 7385 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 2.9486, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2176, "goodHighClaim": 0.5469, "save_contribution": 2.2215, "possessionLostCtrl": 2.4482, "sweeper_actions_p90": 2.8544 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.9644360542297363, "model_output": 2.9644, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", 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0.04 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0388 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0235, "items": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0663 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": -0.0567 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0277 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.0229 } ], "others": -0.042, "total": -0.0292, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.066272 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": -0.056741 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.027673 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023907 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.022863 } ], "others_margin": -0.041817 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.918645858764648, "model_output": 6.9186, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0289 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0221 } ], "others": -0.0386, "total": 6.9186, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.028888 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.025518 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.024462 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.02419 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.022123 } ], 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0104, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9953, "goals_prevented": -0.0295, "rating": 6.9186, "minutes": 86.05, "total_pass": 21.7774, "accurate_pass": 19.4954, "total_long_balls": 3.861, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8493, "touches": 33.1035, "clearances": 1.9411, "ball_recovery": 8.4189, "high_claims": 0.5526, "punches": 0.3048, "aerial_won": 0.2265, "sweeper_actions": 2.9793, "sweeper_accurate": 2.9793, "saves_inside_box": 1.116, "possession_lost": 2.4737, "duels_won": 0.2836, "duels_lost": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0869, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.926 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0148)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9746, "goals_prevented": -0.0295, "rating": 6.9186, "minutes": 86.05, "total_pass": 21.7774, "accurate_pass": 19.4954, "total_long_balls": 3.861, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8493, "touches": 33.1035, "clearances": 1.9411, "ball_recovery": 8.4189, "high_claims": 0.5526, "punches": 0.3048, "aerial_won": 0.2265, "sweeper_actions": 2.9793, "sweeper_accurate": 2.9793, "saves_inside_box": 1.116, "possession_lost": 2.4737, "duels_won": 0.2836, "duels_lost": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0856, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.926 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0148, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9561, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.9953, "after": 2.9746 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9746, "goals_prevented": -0.0295, "rating": 6.9186, "minutes": 86.05, "total_pass": 21.7774, "accurate_pass": 19.4954, "total_long_balls": 3.861, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8493, "touches": 33.1035, "clearances": 1.9411, "ball_recovery": 8.4189, "high_claims": 0.5526, "punches": 0.3048, "aerial_won": 0.2265, "sweeper_actions": 2.9793, "sweeper_accurate": 2.9793, "saves_inside_box": 1.116, "possession_lost": 2.4737, "duels_won": 0.2836, "duels_lost": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0856, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.926 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9746, "goals_prevented": -0.0295, "rating": 6.9186, "minutes": 86.05, "total_pass": 21.7774, "accurate_pass": 19.4954, "total_long_balls": 3.861, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8493, "touches": 33.1035, "clearances": 1.9411, "ball_recovery": 8.4189, "high_claims": 0.5526, "punches": 0.3048, "aerial_won": 0.2265, "sweeper_actions": 2.9793, "sweeper_accurate": 2.9793, "saves_inside_box": 1.116, "possession_lost": 2.4737, "duels_won": 0.2836, "duels_lost": 0.0823, "total_contest": 0.0007, "won_contest": 0.0007, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0856, "total_own_half_passes": 19.9911, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.926, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4285, "shots_faced": 13.6, "expected_saves": 3.33, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4285 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.86 (squad xG sum 2.6208, xG scale 1.4740, xA scale 1.6297, team xA 2.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1639, "tackles": 1.2216, "tackles_won": 0.7353, "clearances": 4.6949, "aerial_won": 2.8024, "total_shots": 0.4294, "rating": 6.9984, "minutes": 86.55, "total_pass": 94.212, "accurate_pass": 89.5459, "duels_won": 4.749, "total_long_balls": 3.636, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0568, "total_own_half_passes": 55.2674, "accurate_own_half_passes": 53.247, "total_opp_half_passes": 38.9445, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 36.2988, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 104.8716, "possession_lost": 5.4065, "dispossessed": 0.0485, "duels_lost": 2.6486, "aerial_lost": 1.0937, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0876 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.1884, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.322509 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.129704 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127309 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.096124 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.080836 } ], "others_margin": -0.020584 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6669477820396423, "model_output": 0.6669, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1291 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0652 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.138, "total": 0.6669, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.292837 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129098 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06517 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042997 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.035337 } ], "others_margin": -0.137879 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.00419282913208, "model_output": 7.0042, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0809 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0352 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 7.0042, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080948 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.035822 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035169 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016167 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013949 } ], "others_margin": -0.005972 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2062, "expected_assists": 0.102, "assists": 0.0851, "assist_rate": 0.0851, "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.6719, "rating": 7.0042, "minutes": 88.98, "total_pass": 87.213, "accurate_pass": 82.5195, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.1514, "accurate_long_balls": 2.819, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6521, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.1458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.8674, "crosses_total": 0.2259, "crosses_accurate": 0.1322, "touches": 97.6968, "possession_lost": 6.9389, "dispossessed": 0.6616, "duels_lost": 2.2425, "aerial_won": 0.5341, "aerial_lost": 0.4153, "interceptions": 0.8749, "tackles_won": 0.6042, "tackles": 2.0458, "clearances": 0.7507, "total_contest": 0.3545, "won_contest": 0.2999, "challenges_lost": 0.624, "fouls": 0.4869, "fouls_drawn": 1.2784, "blocks": 0.2682, "big_chances_created": 0.7733, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1048, "ball_carries": 36.0599, "total_progression": 142.1548, "progressive_carries": 2.9895, "shots_off_target": 0.4821 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0075, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2062, "expected_assists": 0.102, "assists": 0.0851, "assist_rate": 0.0851, "expected_goals": 0.0664, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.1898, "total_shots": 0.6719, "rating": 7.0042, "minutes": 88.98, "total_pass": 87.213, "accurate_pass": 82.5195, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.1514, 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"expected_assists": 0.102, "assists": 0.0851, "assist_rate": 0.0851, "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goals": 0.0863, "goal_rate": 0.0863, "shots_on_target": 0.2192, "total_shots": 0.776, "rating": 7.0042, "minutes": 88.98, "total_pass": 87.213, "accurate_pass": 82.5195, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.1514, "accurate_long_balls": 2.819, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6521, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.1458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.8674, "crosses_total": 0.2259, "crosses_accurate": 0.1322, "touches": 97.6968, "possession_lost": 6.9389, "dispossessed": 0.6616, "duels_lost": 2.2425, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4153, "interceptions": 0.8749, "tackles_won": 0.6042, "tackles": 2.0458, "clearances": 0.7507, "total_contest": 0.3545, "won_contest": 0.2999, "challenges_lost": 0.624, "fouls": 0.4869, "fouls_drawn": 1.2784, "blocks": 0.2682, "big_chances_created": 0.7733, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.121, "ball_carries": 36.0599, "total_progression": 142.1548, "progressive_carries": 2.9895, "shots_off_target": 0.5568, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.155, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.525, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "duel_win_rate": 0.525, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.155, "skill_edge": 0.1014, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.6821, "defender_skill": 0.4567, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "market_value": 4099999, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4567 } ], "xg_override": 0.0767 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5341, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.6719, "after": 0.776 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.4821, "after": 0.5568 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1898, "after": 0.2192 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1048, "after": 0.121 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0747, "after": 0.0863 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0664, "after": 0.0767 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2062, "expected_assists": 0.102, "assist_rate": 0.0851, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0767, "goal_rate": 0.0863, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2192, "total_shots": 0.776, "rating": 7.0042, "minutes": 88.98, "total_pass": 87.213, "accurate_pass": 82.5195, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 3.1514, "accurate_long_balls": 2.819, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0672, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6521, "total_opp_half_passes": 60.1458, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 56.8674, "crosses_total": 0.2259, "crosses_accurate": 0.1322, "touches": 97.6968, "possession_lost": 6.9389, "dispossessed": 0.6616, "duels_lost": 2.2425, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.4153, "interceptions": 0.8749, "tackles_won": 0.6042, "tackles": 2.0458, "clearances": 0.7507, "total_contest": 0.3545, "won_contest": 0.2999, "challenges_lost": 0.624, "fouls": 0.4869, "fouls_drawn": 1.2784, "blocks": 0.2682, "big_chances_created": 0.7733, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.121, "ball_carries": 36.0599, "total_progression": 142.1548, "progressive_carries": 2.9895, "shots_off_target": 0.5568, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.155, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.525, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Ibáñez", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Ibáñez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.86 (squad xG sum 2.6208, xG scale 1.4740, xA scale 1.6297, team xA 2.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2062, "expected_assists": 0.1662, "assist_rate": 0.0851, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1131, "goal_rate": 0.0863, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2192, "total_shots": 0.776, "rating": 7.0042, "minutes": 88.98, "total_pass": 87.213, "accurate_pass": 82.5195, "duels_won": 4.1583, "total_long_balls": 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"importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.015 } ], "others": -0.0169, "total": 0.6169, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059856 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.046779 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.016043 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.01596 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.014953 } ], "others_margin": -0.016725 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.828117370605469, "model_output": 6.8281, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0116 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": 0.012, "total": 6.8281, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.024016 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018705 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013055 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.0116 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.011083 } ], "others_margin": 0.012013 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9993, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9121, "tackles": 2.4929, "tackles_won": 1.5907, "clearances": 1.9771, "aerial_won": 0.7286, "total_shots": 0.6165, "rating": 6.8281, "minutes": 84.33, "total_pass": 49.1092, "accurate_pass": 43.3867, "duels_won": 5.3735, "total_long_balls": 2.5508, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6342, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6886, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.0807, "total_opp_half_passes": 29.4207, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 25.3061, "crosses_total": 2.686, "crosses_accurate": 0.74, "touches": 69.73, "possession_lost": 11.8584, "dispossessed": 0.5473, "duels_lost": 4.718, "aerial_lost": 0.4619, "total_contest": 2.5454, "won_contest": 1.1951, "ball_recovery": 4.2676, "challenges_lost": 1.529, "fouls": 0.8294, "fouls_drawn": 0.9339, "blocks": 0.107, "goals": 0.2562, 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"season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6, "combined_rank_score": 12.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 12.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.425, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 12.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.2264, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Fernandes", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "Felix Horn Myhre", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Raphinha", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 11 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.773, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", 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gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.4347826086956522)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.5683, "expected_assists": 0.1991, "assists": 0.2179, "assist_rate": 0.2179, "expected_goals": 0.071, "goals": 0.0943, "goal_rate": 0.0943, "shots_on_target": 0.1945, "total_shots": 0.7767, "rating": 7.2264, "minutes": 82.54, "total_pass": 77.1193, "accurate_pass": 70.9568, "duels_won": 3.666, "total_long_balls": 3.4729, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3563, "total_own_half_passes": 25.9635, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3399, "total_opp_half_passes": 51.1559, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 46.617, "crosses_total": 0.8865, "crosses_accurate": 0.3137, "touches": 90.5344, "possession_lost": 10.2398, "dispossessed": 0.9535, "duels_lost": 4.0222, "aerial_won": 0.2187, "aerial_lost": 0.1572, "interceptions": 0.4209, "tackles_won": 0.9075, "tackles": 1.4474, "clearances": 0.7895, "total_contest": 1.7615, "won_contest": 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"contribution": -0.0703 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.036 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0246 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0172 } ], "others": 0.0007, "total": 0.1945, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.249998 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.157214 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.12358 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121952 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.084842 } ], "others_margin": 0.003285 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7766700387001038, "model_output": 0.7767, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.255 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0329 } ], "others": -0.1109, "total": 0.7767, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.255022 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.128049 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.049215 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049155 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.032919 } ], "others_margin": -0.110945 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.226363182067871, "model_output": 7.2264, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.124 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0936 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0308 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": 0.06, "total": 7.2264, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.123993 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093592 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.035529 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030843 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.026486 } ], "others_margin": 0.059915 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0135, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.603, "expected_assists": 0.2018, "assists": 0.2208, "assist_rate": 0.2208, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0955, "goal_rate": 0.0955, "shots_on_target": 0.1972, "total_shots": 0.7872, "rating": 7.2264, "minutes": 82.54, "total_pass": 78.1604, "accurate_pass": 71.9147, "duels_won": 3.7155, "total_long_balls": 3.5198, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3881, "total_own_half_passes": 26.314, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.6685, "total_opp_half_passes": 51.8465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 47.2463, "crosses_total": 0.8985, "crosses_accurate": 0.3179, "touches": 91.7566, "possession_lost": 10.378, "dispossessed": 0.9664, "duels_lost": 4.0765, "aerial_won": 0.2217, "aerial_lost": 0.1593, "interceptions": 0.4266, "tackles_won": 0.9198, "tackles": 1.4669, "clearances": 0.8002, "total_contest": 1.7853, "won_contest": 0.8662, "challenges_lost": 1.7405, "fouls": 0.2913, "fouls_drawn": 1.1606, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.0901, "big_chances_missed": 0.0224, "xgot": 0.0482, "ball_carries": 31.9364, "total_progression": 105.5006, "progressive_carries": 1.8297, "shots_off_target": 0.59 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 164000000, "quality_factor": 0.8997, "boost_factor": 1.0135, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0113)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.603, "expected_assists": 0.2018, "assists": 0.2228, "assist_rate": 0.2228, "expected_goals": 0.072, "goals": 0.0944, "goal_rate": 0.0944, "shots_on_target": 0.195, "total_shots": 0.7873, "rating": 7.2264, "minutes": 82.54, "total_pass": 78.1604, "accurate_pass": 71.9147, "duels_won": 3.7155, "total_long_balls": 3.5198, "accurate_long_balls": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 90.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2513, "expected_assists": 0.1869, "assist_rate": 0.107, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1845, "goal_rate": 0.1393, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4218, "total_shots": 1.2024, "rating": 7.3499, "minutes": 83.33, "total_pass": 100.2518, "accurate_pass": 93.0221, "duels_won": 5.0561, "total_long_balls": 7.9693, "accurate_long_balls": 6.2216, "total_own_half_passes": 37.8239, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.4772, "total_opp_half_passes": 62.428, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 57.5449, "crosses_total": 0.292, "crosses_accurate": 0.0136, "touches": 112.3067, "possession_lost": 9.1415, "dispossessed": 0.256, "duels_lost": 2.7335, "aerial_won": 1.3, "aerial_lost": 0.4141, "interceptions": 1.2358, "tackles_won": 1.3906, "tackles": 2.099, "clearances": 1.7563, "total_contest": 0.5089, "won_contest": 0.1766, "challenges_lost": 0.834, "fouls": 1.0253, "fouls_drawn": 1.2066, "blocks": 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"creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421080, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5089, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2224, "expected_assists": 0.4691, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421060, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2346, "expected_assists": 0.7747, "total_shots": 6, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416349, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2641, "expected_assists": 0.5755, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416346, "match_date": 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"8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416295, "match_date": "2026-08-31", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.327, "expected_assists": 0.5343, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421059, "match_date": "2026-08-27", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8933, "expected_assists": 0.7456, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 45, "key_pass": 5, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416311, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2063, "expected_assists": 0.1498, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1, "combined_rank_score": 5.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 7.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.65, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 4.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 8.1568, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Mariano Díaz", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.777, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", 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90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 9.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 8.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 65.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 29.473, "expectedGoals": 0.6322, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 38.7379, "accuratePass": 35.8813, "totalShots": 5.0412 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 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"contribution": 0.0153 } ], "others": 0.1051, "total": 0.2462, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.202548 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.185646 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.149376 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.126946 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.115078 } ], "others_margin": 0.556988 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 2.5847082138061523, "model_output": 2.5847, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2093 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.2258 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1684 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1513 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.1415 } ], "others": 0.9945, "total": 2.5847, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.263587 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.223133 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.139001 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.1103 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.093197 } ], "others_margin": 0.485845 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 8.156820297241211, "model_output": 8.1568, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.2008 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1363 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1232 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1221 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0804 } ], "others": 0.7205, "total": 8.1568, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.200815 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.136346 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.123235 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.122065 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.080357 } ], "others_margin": 0.720497 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0138, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4985, "goals": 0.6802, "goal_rate": 0.6802, "shots_on_target": 1.4552, "total_shots": 4.8848, "expected_assists": 0.2496, "key_pass": 2.6204, "rating": 8.1568, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 47.3903, "accurate_pass": 36.977, "duels_won": 6.5452, "total_long_balls": 1.9712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8364, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.3773, "crosses_total": 2.7226, "crosses_accurate": 0.7474, "touches": 73.0455, "possession_lost": 20.1396, "dispossessed": 0.9375, "duels_lost": 5.7068, "aerial_lost": 0.012, "total_contest": 7.0893, "won_contest": 4.1683, "ball_recovery": 2.5506, "challenges_lost": 0.5996, "fouls": 1.3046, "fouls_drawn": 1.7637, "assists": 0.6608, "assist_rate": 0.6608, "interceptions": 0.2848, "tackles_won": 0.28, "tackles": 0.6131, "clearances": 0.1239, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.3534, "big_chances_missed": 0.4274, "xgot": 0.5994, "offsides": 0.7127, "ball_carries": 26.2505, "total_progression": 139.511, "progressive_carries": 6.7029, "shots_off_target": 3.4296 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 237000000, "quality_factor": 0.9, "boost_factor": 1.0138, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0136)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4985, "goals": 0.6802, "goal_rate": 0.6802, "shots_on_target": 1.4585, "total_shots": 4.8876, "expected_assists": 0.2496, "key_pass": 2.6204, "rating": 8.1568, "minutes": 82.87, "total_pass": 47.3903, "accurate_pass": 36.977, "duels_won": 6.5452, "total_long_balls": 1.9712, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8364, "total_opp_half_passes": 39.8441, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.3773, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0147, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.64, "goals": 0.9037, "goal_rate": 0.9037, "shots_on_target": 1.6214, "total_shots": 3.7583, "expected_assists": 0.1493, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.6259, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2857, "fouls_drawn": 0.5936, "assists": 0.2527, "assist_rate": 0.2527, "interceptions": 0.0908, "tackles_won": 0.361, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.6265, "xgot": 0.9631, "offsides": 0.5786, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.1369 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0147, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0150)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.64, "goals": 0.9164, "goal_rate": 0.9164, "shots_on_target": 1.6337, "total_shots": 3.7541, "expected_assists": 0.1493, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.639, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "assists": 0.2542, "assist_rate": 0.2542, "interceptions": 0.0894, "tackles_won": 0.3556, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.6265, "xgot": 0.9631, "offsides": 0.5857, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.1369 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.015, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8749, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6259, "after": 2.639 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.9037, "after": 0.9164 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.6214, "after": 1.6337 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.2857, "after": 0.2972 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.5786, "after": 0.5857 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.361, "after": 0.3556 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.64, "goals": 0.9164, "goal_rate": 0.9164, "shots_on_target": 1.6337, "total_shots": 3.7706, "expected_assists": 0.1493, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.639, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "assists": 0.2542, "assist_rate": 0.2542, "interceptions": 0.0894, "tackles_won": 0.3556, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.6265, "xgot": 0.9631, "offsides": 0.5857, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.1369 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8222, "goals": 1.1773, "goal_rate": 1.1773, "shots_on_target": 2.0988, "total_shots": 4.8441, "expected_assists": 0.1493, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.639, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "assists": 0.2542, "assist_rate": 0.2542, "interceptions": 0.0894, "tackles_won": 0.3556, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.8049, "xgot": 1.2373, "offsides": 0.5857, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.7453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2847, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.674, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jonny Otto", "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.674, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2847, "skill_edge": 0.1897, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.8589, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jonny Otto", "market_value": 2100000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.8222 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.7706, "after": 4.8441 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 2.1369, "after": 2.7453 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.6337, "after": 2.0988 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.9631, "after": 1.2373 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.9164, "after": 1.1773 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.64, "after": 0.8222 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.6265, "after": 0.8049 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8222, "goal_rate": 1.1773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2.0988, "total_shots": 4.8441, "expected_assists": 0.1493, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.639, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "assist_rate": 0.2542, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0894, "tackles_won": 0.3556, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.8049, "xgot": 1.2373, "offsides": 0.5857, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.7453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2847, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.674, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jonny Otto", "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.86 (squad xG sum 2.6208, xG scale 1.4740, xA scale 1.6297, team xA 2.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2119, "goal_rate": 1.1773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2.0988, "total_shots": 4.8441, "expected_assists": 0.2433, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.639, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "assist_rate": 0.2542, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0894, "tackles_won": 0.3556, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.8049, "xgot": 1.8237, "offsides": 0.5857, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.7453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2847, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.674, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jonny Otto", "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.863, "squad_xg_sum": 2.6208, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5408, "team_expected_assists": 2.511, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.474, "xa_scale": 1.6297, "opponent_lambda": 1.288, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.8222, "after": 1.2119 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1493, "after": 0.2433 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2119, "goal_rate": 1.1773, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2.0988, "total_shots": 4.8441, "expected_assists": 0.2433, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.639, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "assist_rate": 0.2542, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0894, "tackles_won": 0.3556, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.8049, "xgot": 1.8237, "offsides": 0.5857, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.7453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2847, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.674, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jonny Otto", "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 10, "fifa_rank": 32.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.2119, "goal_rate": 1.1773, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 2.0988, "total_shots": 4.8441, "expected_assists": 0.2433, "key_pass": 1.8394, "rating": 7.8679, "minutes": 78.74, "total_pass": 29.5233, "accurate_pass": 24.0398, "duels_won": 2.8094, "total_long_balls": 1.5778, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7586, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.7032, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.8918, "crosses_total": 2.639, "crosses_accurate": 0.8097, "touches": 44.299, "possession_lost": 9.9729, "dispossessed": 0.6329, "duels_lost": 2.3275, "aerial_lost": 0.2679, "total_contest": 2.0736, "won_contest": 1.359, "ball_recovery": 1.6098, "challenges_lost": 0.5106, "fouls": 0.2972, "fouls_drawn": 0.5899, "assist_rate": 0.2542, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0894, "tackles_won": 0.3556, "tackles": 0.7615, "clearances": 0.2928, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3916, "big_chances_missed": 0.8049, "xgot": 1.8237, "offsides": 0.5857, "ball_carries": 12.477, "total_progression": 58.013, "progressive_carries": 2.1805, "shots_off_target": 2.7453, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2847, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.674, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jonny Otto", "opponent_faced": "Jonny Otto", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7024, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 3, "goals_allocated": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7024, "goal_rate": 1.1773, "scorer_weight": 1.5149, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.2471 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.1562 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0748 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.04 } ], "others": 0.0099, "total": 1.1484, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.304646 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.153594 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.067035 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.065877 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.035747 } ], "others_margin": 0.008661 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.986854553222656, "model_output": 6.9869, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": 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"prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0281, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2511, "goals": 0.1975, "goal_rate": 0.1975, "shots_on_target": 0.7899, "total_shots": 2.0611, "expected_assists": 0.1008, "key_pass": 1.1807, "rating": 6.9869, "minutes": 75.26, "total_pass": 31.6323, "accurate_pass": 24.1978, "duels_won": 6.83, "total_long_balls": 0.6884, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2888, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6068, "crosses_total": 1.0791, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 49.2759, "possession_lost": 12.2862, "dispossessed": 0.3397, "duels_lost": 3.4659, "aerial_lost": 0.6794, "total_contest": 4.4431, "won_contest": 3.0154, "ball_recovery": 3.1862, "challenges_lost": 0.3397, "fouls": 0.6794, "fouls_drawn": 2.7356, "assists": 0.3397, "assist_rate": 0.3397, "interceptions": 0.0, 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25.175, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6068, "crosses_total": 1.0756, "crosses_accurate": 0.3397, "touches": 49.2759, "possession_lost": 12.2862, "dispossessed": 0.3397, "duels_lost": 3.4659, "aerial_lost": 0.6794, "total_contest": 4.4431, "won_contest": 3.0154, "ball_recovery": 3.1862, "challenges_lost": 0.3397, "fouls": 0.6817, "fouls_drawn": 2.7202, "assists": 0.3469, "assist_rate": 0.3469, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3996, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.0192, "big_chances_missed": 1.7292, "xgot": 0.1656, "offsides": 0.3938, "ball_carries": 24.4266, "total_progression": 141.4527, "progressive_carries": 7.3496, "shots_off_target": 1.5492, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.629, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Hugo 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"challenges_lost": 0.3397, "fouls": 0.6817, "fouls_drawn": 2.7202, "assist_rate": 0.3469, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3996, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.0192, "big_chances_missed": 1.7292, "xgot": 0.1656, "offsides": 0.3938, "ball_carries": 24.4266, "total_progression": 141.4527, "progressive_carries": 7.3496, "shots_off_target": 1.5492, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.629, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Hugo Novoa", "opponent_faced": "Hugo Novoa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player 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0.3996, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 1.0192, "big_chances_missed": 1.7292, "xgot": 0.2441, "offsides": 0.3938, "ball_carries": 24.4266, "total_progression": 141.4527, "progressive_carries": 7.3496, "shots_off_target": 1.5492, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2188, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.629, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Hugo Novoa", "opponent_faced": "Hugo Novoa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.848, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.863, "squad_xg_sum": 2.6208, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5408, "team_expected_assists": 2.511, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.474, "xa_scale": 1.6297, 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"season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0327, "expected_assists": 0.0134, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 62, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0991, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 82, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083245, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0168, "expected_assists": 0.1141, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 62, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0485, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 82, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 540, "combined_rank_score": 301.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 444.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9033, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 159.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9277, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jules Koundé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Evan Ndicka", "ranking": 535 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Lima", "ranking": 536 }, { "player_name": "Eder Aller", "ranking": 537 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Leão", "ranking": 538 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zaccagni", "ranking": 539 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rafa Romero", "ranking": 541 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Odilov", "ranking": 542 }, { "player_name": "Hyeok-chan Son", "ranking": 543 }, { "player_name": "Min-ho Yoon", "ranking": 544 }, { "player_name": "Akmal Muzaffarov", "ranking": 545 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.762, "history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.762, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 12.91, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.508, "market_value_adjustment": 1.013, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 2.0, "minutes_per_sub": 11.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.08 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (36 historical appearances) to 12.9 expected mins (appearance prob 0.51); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 11.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3131, "tackles": 0.598, "tackles_won": 0.4723, "clearances": 0.727, "aerial_won": 0.333, "total_shots": 0.2341, "rating": 6.9277, "minutes": 27.47, "total_pass": 32.9886, "accurate_pass": 30.8332, "duels_won": 1.8383, "total_long_balls": 1.0094, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8142, "total_own_half_passes": 12.2784, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.7586, "crosses_total": 0.2844, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 38.9367, "possession_lost": 3.4705, "dispossessed": 0.2971, "duels_lost": 0.7602, "aerial_lost": 0.1952, "total_contest": 0.481, "won_contest": 0.3151, "ball_recovery": 1.7088, "challenges_lost": 0.1019, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8606, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0046, "expected_assists": 0.0215, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.9687, "total_progression": 70.9005, "progressive_carries": 0.7049, "key_pass": 0.1952, "shots_off_target": 0.2341 }, "trace": { "model": { 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"Real Betis", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-25", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 60.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 1.3158, "aerialWon": 0.7348, "totalClearance_p90": 2.0866, "totalTackle": 1.1793, "totalPass": 65.5639 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3130670189857483, "model_output": 0.3131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066931 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.06615 } ], "others_margin": -0.154802 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.3330199420452118, "model_output": 0.333, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8079 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.166 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0487 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0258 } ], "others": -0.0224, "total": 0.333, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.886378 }, { "name": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.228404 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.028748 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.026839 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025191 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.015246 } ], "others_margin": -0.029383 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.927727222442627, "model_output": 6.9277, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1357 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0614 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0075, "total": 6.9277, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.135679 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061371 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.033241 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016073 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.014442 } ], "others_margin": -0.00756 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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0.3619, "aerial_lost": 0.1977, "total_contest": 0.229, "won_contest": 0.15, "ball_recovery": 0.8135, "challenges_lost": 0.1032, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.4079, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6502, "total_progression": 33.7541, "progressive_carries": 0.3356, "key_pass": 0.0929, "shots_off_target": 0.1114, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.91 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1481, "tackles": 0.2847, "tackles_won": 0.2234, "clearances": 0.3461, "aerial_won": 0.1585, "total_shots": 0.1114, "rating": 6.9277, "minutes": 12.91, "total_pass": 15.7051, "accurate_pass": 14.679, "duels_won": 0.8752, "total_long_balls": 0.4805, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3876, "total_own_half_passes": 5.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.7485, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.8596, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9306, "crosses_total": 0.1346, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.5369, "possession_lost": 1.6522, "dispossessed": 0.301, "duels_lost": 0.3619, "aerial_lost": 0.1977, "total_contest": 0.229, "won_contest": 0.15, "ball_recovery": 0.8135, "challenges_lost": 0.1032, "fouls": 0.0008, "fouls_drawn": 0.4079, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0022, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6502, "total_progression": 33.7541, "progressive_carries": 0.3356, "key_pass": 0.0929, "shots_off_target": 0.1114, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 12.91, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, 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-0.0278 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0443, "total": 0.1438, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.223899 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.06739 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027781 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.013866 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.013168 } ], "others_margin": -0.04428 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.738920211791992, "model_output": 6.7389, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0107, "total": 6.7389, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021423 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020296 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.016506 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013005 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009428 } ], "others_margin": -0.010655 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1741, "tackles": 0.398, "tackles_won": 0.2725, "clearances": 0.3141, "aerial_won": 0.0871, "total_shots": 0.0728, "rating": 6.7389, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 9.8407, "accurate_pass": 8.9273, "duels_won": 0.8907, "total_long_balls": 0.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0382, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8891, "crosses_total": 0.136, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2181, "possession_lost": 2.0029, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 0.8303, "aerial_lost": 0.054, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.0755, "ball_recovery": 1.0692, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2561, "fouls_drawn": 0.3707, "blocks": 0.0269, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0027, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8887, "total_progression": 18.215, "progressive_carries": 0.5499, "key_pass": 0.22, "shots_off_target": 0.0728, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1741, "tackles": 0.398, "tackles_won": 0.2725, "clearances": 0.3141, "aerial_won": 0.0871, "total_shots": 0.0728, "rating": 6.7389, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 9.8407, "accurate_pass": 8.9273, "duels_won": 0.8907, "total_long_balls": 0.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0382, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8891, "crosses_total": 0.136, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2181, "possession_lost": 2.0029, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 0.8303, "aerial_lost": 0.054, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.0755, "ball_recovery": 1.0692, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2561, "fouls_drawn": 0.3707, "blocks": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0027, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8887, "total_progression": 18.215, "progressive_carries": 0.5499, "key_pass": 0.22, "shots_off_target": 0.0728, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.371, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1741, "tackles": 0.398, "tackles_won": 0.2725, "clearances": 0.3141, "aerial_won": 0.0871, "total_shots": 0.0728, "rating": 6.7389, "minutes": 15.17, "total_pass": 9.8407, "accurate_pass": 8.9273, "duels_won": 0.8907, "total_long_balls": 0.0713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3504, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0382, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4903, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8891, "crosses_total": 0.136, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.2181, "possession_lost": 2.0029, "dispossessed": 0.1382, "duels_lost": 0.8303, "aerial_lost": 0.054, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.0755, "ball_recovery": 1.0692, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2561, "fouls_drawn": 0.3707, "blocks": 0.0269, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0027, "expected_assists": 0.0234, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8887, "total_progression": 18.215, "progressive_carries": 0.5499, "key_pass": 0.22, "shots_off_target": 0.0728, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.371, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.17, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1817, "fifa_rank": 1231.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } } ] }, "Ferran Torres": { "player_id": 855833, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 59000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "assist_rate": 0.0683, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1105, "goal_rate": 0.086, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6869, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 3.8538, "dispossessed": 0.4539, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1126, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.573, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.61, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.091, "expected_assists": 0.0111, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3143, "expected_assists": 0.1374, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083495, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3333, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083261, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0551, "expected_assists": 0.0688, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083113, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5961, "expected_assists": 0.0301, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1977, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "total_shots": 3, 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.066937 } ], "others_margin": 0.299398 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0551856756210327, "model_output": 1.0552, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3913 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0417 } ], "others": 0.0628, "total": 1.0552, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529708 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.391341 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.045099 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.041707 } ], "others_margin": 0.062697 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.137820243835449, "model_output": 7.1378, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0889 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": 0.1277, "total": 7.1378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.124541 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088923 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068073 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025325 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025136 } ], "others_margin": 0.127659 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "assists": 0.1156, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "expected_goals": 0.0877, "goals": 0.1813, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "shots_on_target": 0.5043, "total_shots": 1.0667, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1674, "tackles_won": 0.1034, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.0171, "fouls_drawn": 0.9637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5624 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "assists": 0.1149, "assist_rate": 0.1149, "expected_goals": 0.0877, "goals": 0.1802, "goal_rate": 0.1802, "shots_on_target": 0.5024, "total_shots": 1.065, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2842, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1664, "tackles_won": 0.1028, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.017, "fouls_drawn": 0.9603, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5624 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2533, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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"match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.498, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0142, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Barcelona", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 1.0, "minutes_per_sub": 26.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 1.5, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost F_service (35 historical appearances) to 26.5 expected mins (appearance prob 0.50); FBref playing time empirical prior: 1.0 sub appearances, 26.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1171, "goals": 0.1088, "goal_rate": 0.1088, "shots_on_target": 0.4935, "total_shots": 1.3697, "expected_assists": 0.0764, "key_pass": 0.7722, "rating": 7.034, "minutes": 20.73, "total_pass": 11.2099, "accurate_pass": 10.0417, "duels_won": 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"2026-10-25", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1505, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Real Betis", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 8.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 86.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 67.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0786, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 62.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0668, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-31", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "minutes": 77.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0568, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-27", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 80.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 25.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 71.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0349, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 18.897, "expectedGoals": 0.3181, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 21.3619, "accuratePass": 23.1646, "totalShots": 2.4235 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.11705467104911804, "model_output": 0.1171, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.282 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0898 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0323 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "importance": 0.0316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.1945, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0908 }, { "name": 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1022 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0067 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": 0.0041 } ], "others": 0.0111, "total": 0.1088, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.614663, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.720418 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.126103 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.090917 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.069574 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": 0.04275 } ], "others_margin": 0.10813 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49352481961250305, "model_output": 0.4935, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2115 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.066 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0499 }, { "name": "goals", "importance": 0.0473 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0333 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.5305, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2461 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0412 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0365 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": 0.0899, "total": 0.4935, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.633985, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.623589 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.135202 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.106261 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.055328 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.053275 } ], "others_margin": 0.201325 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.3697019815444946, "model_output": 1.3697, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2934 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6408 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2048 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1017 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0745 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0494 } ], "others": 0.1996, "total": 1.3697, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.38048, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.640835 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.204797 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.101685 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.074481 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.049396 } ], "others_margin": 0.199698 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0763741061091423, "model_output": 0.0764, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0073 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0077 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0057 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0167, "total": 0.0764, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.420787 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.158939 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.144221 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.094067 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.056718 } ], "others_margin": 0.246442 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7721672654151917, "model_output": 0.7722, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2686 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0641 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0429 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0369 } ], "others": 0.1521, "total": 0.7722, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.489525 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.140297 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.099017 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.076405 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.061373 } ], "others_margin": 0.219329 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0339579582214355, "model_output": 7.034, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1113 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0465 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0355 } ], "others": 0.1903, "total": 7.034, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.11128 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.058938 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.046511 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.040582 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.035469 } ], "others_margin": 0.190235 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1187, "goals": 0.1103, "goal_rate": 0.1103, "shots_on_target": 0.5005, "total_shots": 1.3892, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "key_pass": 0.7831, "rating": 7.034, "minutes": 20.73, "total_pass": 11.3691, "accurate_pass": 10.1843, "duels_won": 0.5005, "total_long_balls": 0.2299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2299, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9103, "crosses_total": 0.9198, "crosses_accurate": 0.4599, "touches": 14.8812, "possession_lost": 2.2811, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.1954, "total_contest": 0.5482, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.5888, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2705, "assists": 0.5411, "assist_rate": 0.5411, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5411, "big_chances_missed": 0.3499, "xgot": 0.366, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.9114, "total_progression": 34.7113, "progressive_carries": 2.4944, "shots_off_target": 0.8886 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1187, "goals": 0.1091, "goal_rate": 0.1091, "shots_on_target": 0.4988, "total_shots": 1.3828, "expected_assists": 0.0775, "key_pass": 0.7831, "rating": 7.034, "minutes": 20.73, "total_pass": 11.3691, "accurate_pass": 10.1843, "duels_won": 0.5005, "total_long_balls": 0.2299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2299, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.095, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9103, "crosses_total": 0.9111, "crosses_accurate": 0.4599, "touches": 14.8812, "possession_lost": 2.2811, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5137, "aerial_lost": 0.1954, "total_contest": 0.5482, "won_contest": 0.2299, "ball_recovery": 0.5888, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0012, "fouls_drawn": 0.2713, "assists": 0.539, "assist_rate": 0.539, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0012, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.5411, "big_chances_missed": 0.3499, "xgot": 0.366, "offsides": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 7.9114, "total_progression": 34.7113, "progressive_carries": 2.4944, "shots_off_target": 0.8886 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0108, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2303, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.9198, "after": 0.9111 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3892, "after": 1.3828 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.7 to 26.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1516, "goals": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.1394, "shots_on_target": 0.6372, "total_shots": 1.7723, "expected_assists": 0.099, "key_pass": 1.0003, "rating": 7.034, "minutes": 26.48, "total_pass": 14.5226, "accurate_pass": 13.0092, "duels_won": 0.6393, "total_long_balls": 0.2937, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2937, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1044, "crosses_total": 1.1638, "crosses_accurate": 0.5875, "touches": 19.0089, "possession_lost": 2.9138, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6562, "aerial_lost": 0.1954, "total_contest": 0.7003, "won_contest": 0.2937, "ball_recovery": 0.7521, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0015, "fouls_drawn": 0.3466, "assists": 0.6885, "assist_rate": 0.6885, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6912, "big_chances_missed": 0.447, "xgot": 0.4675, "offsides": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 10.1058, "total_progression": 44.3394, "progressive_carries": 3.1863, "shots_off_target": 1.1351, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.498, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.48, "projection_minutes": 20.73, "minutes_scale": 1.2774, "appearance_probability": 0.498 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1516, "goals": 0.1394, "goal_rate": 0.1394, "shots_on_target": 0.6372, "total_shots": 1.7723, "expected_assists": 0.099, "key_pass": 1.0003, "rating": 7.034, "minutes": 26.48, "total_pass": 14.5226, "accurate_pass": 13.0092, "duels_won": 0.6393, "total_long_balls": 0.2937, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2937, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6177, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1044, "crosses_total": 1.1638, "crosses_accurate": 0.5875, "touches": 19.0089, "possession_lost": 2.9138, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.6562, "aerial_lost": 0.1954, "total_contest": 0.7003, "won_contest": 0.2937, "ball_recovery": 0.7521, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0015, "fouls_drawn": 0.3466, "assists": 0.6885, "assist_rate": 0.6885, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6912, "big_chances_missed": 0.447, "xgot": 0.4675, "offsides": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 10.1058, "total_progression": 44.3394, "progressive_carries": 3.1863, "shots_off_target": 1.1351, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.498, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.48 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1516, "goal_rate": 0.1394, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6372, "total_shots": 1.7723, "expected_assists": 0.099, "key_pass": 1.0003, "rating": 7.034, "minutes": 26.48, "total_pass": 14.5226, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.602752 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.070444 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.056804 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.052427 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.043181 } ], "others_margin": 0.04538 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8955361843109131, "model_output": 0.8955, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2934 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5722 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0552 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0393 } ], "others": 0.0086, "total": 0.8955, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.38048, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.572189 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.05519 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.050107 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.044362 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.039281 } ], "others_margin": 0.008686 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.023348424583673477, "model_output": 0.0233, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0229 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0023 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0016 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.0233, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.437149 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.116641 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.099348 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070552 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.050773 } ], "others_margin": -0.244488 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.34854453802108765, "model_output": 0.3485, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2661 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 0.3485, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.483685 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055564 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046043 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041569 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03805 } ], "others_margin": -0.099727 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.626884937286377, "model_output": 6.6269, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0707 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0322, "total": 6.6269, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.070692 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012897 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.0108 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010178 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009773 } ], "others_margin": -0.03228 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0061, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.128, "goals": 0.1309, "goal_rate": 0.1309, "shots_on_target": 0.3318, "total_shots": 0.9011, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.3507, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 17.36, "total_pass": 5.699, "accurate_pass": 4.5154, "duels_won": 1.2098, "total_long_balls": 0.1341, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1015, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1561, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1612, "possession_lost": 3.1669, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 2.3465, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 0.9217, "won_contest": 0.4827, "ball_recovery": 0.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.3072, "fouls_drawn": 0.02, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1812, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2309, "clearances": 0.0495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1561, "xgot": 0.1287, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 2.6172, "total_progression": 3.0324, "progressive_carries": 0.2415, "shots_off_target": 0.5693 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.0061, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.4 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1914, "goals": 0.1958, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.1925, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 3.9142, "total_progression": 4.5352, "progressive_carries": 0.3612, "shots_off_target": 0.8514, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "projection_minutes": 17.36, "minutes_scale": 1.4956, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1914, "goals": 0.1958, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.1925, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 3.9142, "total_progression": 4.5352, "progressive_carries": 0.3612, "shots_off_target": 0.8514, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1914, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.1925, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 3.9142, "total_progression": 4.5352, "progressive_carries": 0.3612, "shots_off_target": 0.8514, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.86 (squad xG sum 2.6208, xG scale 1.4740, xA scale 1.6297, team xA 2.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1662, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.1671, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 3.9142, "total_progression": 4.5352, "progressive_carries": 0.3612, "shots_off_target": 0.8514, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0182, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.863, "squad_xg_sum": 2.6208, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5408, "team_expected_assists": 2.511, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.474, "xa_scale": 1.6297, "opponent_lambda": 1.288, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.589 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1914, "after": 0.1662 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1662, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.1671, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 3.9142, "total_progression": 4.5352, "progressive_carries": 0.3612, "shots_off_target": 0.8514, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0182, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2126, "fifa_rank": 862.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 3 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1662, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0337, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, 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0.0322 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0851, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0095 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0218, "total": 0.1144, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.463734, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.25269 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.176874 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.142377 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.099213 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.082405 } ], "others_margin": 0.21189 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.08675651997327805, "model_output": 0.0868, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1242 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0778 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0241 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0911, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0384 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0063 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0043 } ], "others": 0.0012, "total": 0.0868, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.395469, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.546406 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.194212 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.158492 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.080812 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.051691 } ], "others_margin": 0.012019 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.1793178915977478, "model_output": 0.1793, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0172 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0168 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0139 } ], "others": 0.047, "total": 0.1793, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.374647 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.259486 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.185596 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.152646 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.111076 } ], "others_margin": 0.304579 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.49887341260910034, "model_output": 0.4989, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1062 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0452 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0282 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0239 } ], "others": 0.1291, "total": 0.4989, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.406878 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.253275 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.153472 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.085125 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.066937 } ], "others_margin": 0.299398 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.0551856756210327, "model_output": 1.0552, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5297 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3913 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0623 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0417 } ], "others": 0.0628, "total": 1.0552, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.529708 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.391341 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06232 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.045099 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.041707 } ], "others_margin": 0.062697 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.137820243835449, "model_output": 7.1378, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1245 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0889 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0681 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0251 } ], "others": 0.1277, "total": 7.1378, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.124541 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.088923 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068073 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025325 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.025136 } ], "others_margin": 0.127659 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0109, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "assists": 0.1156, "assist_rate": 0.1156, "expected_goals": 0.0877, "goals": 0.1813, "goal_rate": 0.1813, "shots_on_target": 0.5043, "total_shots": 1.0667, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2824, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1674, "tackles_won": 0.1034, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.0171, "fouls_drawn": 0.9637, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5624 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0109, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0060)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0859, "assists": 0.1149, "assist_rate": 0.1149, "expected_goals": 0.0877, "goals": 0.1802, "goal_rate": 0.1802, "shots_on_target": 0.5024, "total_shots": 1.065, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 22.8, "total_pass": 18.1819, "accurate_pass": 16.9508, "duels_won": 1.8423, "total_long_balls": 1.0004, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8623, "total_own_half_passes": 5.0424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.8756, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.1396, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0753, "crosses_total": 0.2842, "crosses_accurate": 0.0867, "touches": 24.0226, "possession_lost": 2.5366, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 0.9296, "aerial_won": 0.2613, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1664, "tackles_won": 0.1028, "tackles": 0.2922, "clearances": 0.6212, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.3252, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.017, "fouls_drawn": 0.9603, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3968, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1639, "ball_carries": 7.823, "total_progression": 19.1247, "progressive_carries": 0.3932, "shots_off_target": 0.5624 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.006, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2533, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Barcelona" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.8 to 25.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.60)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1368, "expected_assists": 0.096, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "expected_goals": 0.098, "goals": 0.2013, "goal_rate": 0.2013, "shots_on_target": 0.5612, "total_shots": 1.1897, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1831, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.6283, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.47, "projection_minutes": 22.8, "minutes_scale": 1.1171, "appearance_probability": 0.597 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1368, "expected_assists": 0.096, "assists": 0.1284, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "expected_goals": 0.098, "goals": 0.2013, "goal_rate": 0.2013, "shots_on_target": 0.5612, "total_shots": 1.1897, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1831, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.6283, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 3 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1368, "expected_assists": 0.096, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.098, "goal_rate": 0.2013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5612, "total_shots": 1.1897, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1831, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.6283, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 3 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 3.86 (squad xG sum 2.6208, xG scale 1.4740, xA scale 1.6297, team xA 2.51 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1368, "expected_assists": 0.0934, "assist_rate": 0.1284, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0862, "goal_rate": 0.2013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5612, "total_shots": 1.1897, "rating": 7.1378, "minutes": 25.47, "total_pass": 20.3111, "accurate_pass": 18.9358, "duels_won": 2.058, "total_long_balls": 1.1176, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9633, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6329, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.4466, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.6783, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.4894, "crosses_total": 0.3175, "crosses_accurate": 0.0969, "touches": 26.8358, "possession_lost": 2.8336, "dispossessed": 0.3977, "duels_lost": 1.0385, "aerial_won": 0.2919, "aerial_lost": 0.12, "interceptions": 0.1859, "tackles_won": 0.1148, "tackles": 0.3264, "clearances": 0.6939, "total_contest": 0.6161, "won_contest": 0.3633, "challenges_lost": 0.1684, "fouls": 0.019, "fouls_drawn": 1.0728, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4433, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1611, "ball_carries": 8.7391, "total_progression": 21.3643, "progressive_carries": 0.4392, "shots_off_target": 0.6283, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.597, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.765, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.2219 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 3.863, "squad_xg_sum": 2.6208, "squad_xa_sum": 1.5408, "team_expected_assists": 2.511, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.474, "xa_scale": 1.6297, "opponent_lambda": 1.288, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.597 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.098, "after": 0.0862 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2661 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0367, "total": 0.3485, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.483685 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055564 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.046043 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.041569 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.03805 } ], "others_margin": -0.099727 } }, { "target": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0061, quality 0.607)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.128, "goals": 0.1309, "goal_rate": 0.1309, "shots_on_target": 0.3318, "total_shots": 0.9011, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "key_pass": 0.3507, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 17.36, "total_pass": 5.699, "accurate_pass": 4.5154, "duels_won": 1.2098, "total_long_balls": 0.1341, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1015, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0987, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1561, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.1612, "possession_lost": 3.1669, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 2.3465, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 0.9217, "won_contest": 0.4827, "ball_recovery": 0.6579, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.3072, "fouls_drawn": 0.02, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1812, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2309, "clearances": 0.0495, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1561, "xgot": 0.1287, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 2.6172, "total_progression": 3.0324, "progressive_carries": 0.2415, "shots_off_target": 0.5693 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17600000, "quality_factor": 0.6068, "boost_factor": 1.0061, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.4 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1914, "goals": 0.1958, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.1925, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 3.9142, "total_progression": 4.5352, "progressive_carries": 0.3612, "shots_off_target": 0.8514, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.96, "projection_minutes": 17.36, "minutes_scale": 1.4956, "appearance_probability": 0.589 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1914, "goals": 0.1958, "goal_rate": 0.1958, "shots_on_target": 0.4962, "total_shots": 1.3477, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "key_pass": 0.5245, "rating": 6.6269, "minutes": 25.96, "total_pass": 8.5232, "accurate_pass": 6.7531, "duels_won": 1.8093, "total_long_balls": 0.2006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1518, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.1299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7202, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1967, "possession_lost": 4.7363, "dispossessed": 0.7616, "duels_lost": 3.5093, "aerial_lost": 0.6564, "total_contest": 1.3785, "won_contest": 0.7219, "ball_recovery": 0.9839, "challenges_lost": 0.1823, "fouls": 0.4594, "fouls_drawn": 0.0299, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.271, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3453, "clearances": 0.074, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2335, "xgot": 0.1925, "offsides": 0.1726, "ball_carries": 3.9142, "total_progression": 4.5352, "progressive_carries": 0.3612, "shots_off_target": 0.8514, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.589, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.96 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9855, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, "crosses_total": 4.5546, "crosses_accurate": 1.5182, "touches": 35.2383, "possession_lost": 8.8695, "dispossessed": 0.9855, "duels_lost": 2.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0509, "won_contest": 0.9855, "ball_recovery": 1.971, "challenges_lost": 0.4528, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9855, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.4528, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0373, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.4528, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3674, "ball_carries": 10.1746, "total_progression": 69.71, "progressive_carries": 3.942, "key_pass": 1.5182, "shots_off_target": 0.3446 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 725000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9855, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, "crosses_total": 4.5546, "crosses_accurate": 1.5182, "touches": 35.2383, "possession_lost": 8.8695, "dispossessed": 0.9855, "duels_lost": 2.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0509, "won_contest": 0.9855, "ball_recovery": 1.971, "challenges_lost": 0.4528, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9855, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.4528, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0373, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.4528, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3674, "ball_carries": 10.1746, "total_progression": 69.71, "progressive_carries": 3.942, "key_pass": 1.5182, "shots_off_target": 0.3446 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, "crosses_total": 4.5546, "crosses_accurate": 1.5182, "touches": 35.2383, "possession_lost": 8.8695, "dispossessed": 0.9855, "duels_lost": 2.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0509, "won_contest": 0.9855, "ball_recovery": 1.971, "challenges_lost": 0.4528, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9855, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.4528, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0373, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.4528, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3674, "ball_carries": 10.1746, "total_progression": 69.71, "progressive_carries": 3.942, "key_pass": 1.5182, "shots_off_target": 0.3446, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, "crosses_total": 4.5546, "crosses_accurate": 1.5182, "touches": 35.2383, "possession_lost": 8.8695, "dispossessed": 0.9855, "duels_lost": 2.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0509, "won_contest": 0.9855, "ball_recovery": 1.971, "challenges_lost": 0.4528, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9855, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0373, "expected_assists": 0.1109, "shots_on_target": 0.4528, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.3674, "ball_carries": 10.1746, "total_progression": 69.71, "progressive_carries": 3.942, "key_pass": 1.5182, "shots_off_target": 0.3446, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, "crosses_total": 4.5546, "crosses_accurate": 1.5182, "touches": 35.2383, "possession_lost": 8.8695, "dispossessed": 0.9855, "duels_lost": 2.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0509, "won_contest": 0.9855, "ball_recovery": 1.971, "challenges_lost": 0.4528, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9855, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "expected_assists": 0.142, "shots_on_target": 0.4528, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4704, "ball_carries": 10.1746, "total_progression": 69.71, "progressive_carries": 3.942, "key_pass": 1.5182, "shots_off_target": 0.3446, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0373, "after": 0.0478 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1109, "after": 0.142 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 64.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, "crosses_total": 4.5546, "crosses_accurate": 1.5182, "touches": 35.2383, "possession_lost": 8.8695, "dispossessed": 0.9855, "duels_lost": 2.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0509, "won_contest": 0.9855, "ball_recovery": 1.971, "challenges_lost": 0.4528, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9855, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "expected_assists": 0.142, "shots_on_target": 0.4528, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4704, "ball_carries": 10.1746, "total_progression": 69.71, "progressive_carries": 3.942, "key_pass": 1.5182, "shots_off_target": 0.3446, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 64.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 8056, "fifa_rank": 12946.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 64.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, "crosses_total": 4.5546, "crosses_accurate": 1.5182, "touches": 35.2383, "possession_lost": 8.8695, "dispossessed": 0.9855, "duels_lost": 2.5037, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0509, "won_contest": 0.9855, "ball_recovery": 1.971, "challenges_lost": 0.4528, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.9855, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0478, "expected_assists": 0.142, "shots_on_target": 0.4528, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.4704, "ball_carries": 10.1746, "total_progression": 69.71, "progressive_carries": 3.942, "key_pass": 1.5182, "shots_off_target": 0.3446, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0467, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 64.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.4528, "scorer_weight": 0.0598, "squad_weight_total": 1.3792, "weight_share": 0.0433, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8245, "tackles": 2.9736, "tackles_won": 1.8592, "clearances": 1.7491, "aerial_won": 0.7146, "total_shots": 0.7975, "rating": 6.7914, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 16.3274, "accurate_pass": 13.9835, "duels_won": 4.9275, "total_long_balls": 1.0654, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0654, "total_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.2326, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0947, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7508, 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0467, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1324, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 64.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1324, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.1136, "squad_weight_total": 0.8425, "weight_share": 0.1348, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1853, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1853, "runner_up": "Hugo Novoa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1136, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "player_id": 896073, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 182, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, 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{ "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.017449 } ], "others_margin": 0.056464 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80718994140625, "model_output": 6.8072, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0265 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.013 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0446, "total": 6.8072, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026541 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.014544 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.013031 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012392 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011803 } ], "others_margin": -0.044738 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0765, "tackles": 2.0963, "tackles_won": 1.2887, "clearances": 3.3086, "aerial_won": 1.2294, "total_shots": 0.8338, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 87.12, "total_pass": 34.4409, "accurate_pass": 28.6965, "duels_won": 5.7265, "total_long_balls": 4.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0707, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6258, "crosses_total": 1.5006, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 56.2452, "possession_lost": 10.3209, "dispossessed": 0.6332, "duels_lost": 4.7252, "aerial_lost": 1.6763, "total_contest": 1.1059, "won_contest": 0.266, "ball_recovery": 3.9385, "challenges_lost": 0.6079, "fouls": 0.9929, "fouls_drawn": 1.7079, "blocks": 0.4494, "goals": 0.0553, "goal_rate": 0.0553, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0578, "expected_assists": 0.035, "shots_on_target": 0.3064, "big_chances_created": 0.0766, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 14.6526, "total_progression": 71.7709, "progressive_carries": 1.6051, "key_pass": 0.1864, "shots_off_target": 0.5274 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.0963, "tackles_won": 1.2887, "clearances": 3.3086, "aerial_won": 1.2294, "total_shots": 0.8396, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 87.12, "total_pass": 34.4409, "accurate_pass": 28.6965, "duels_won": 5.7265, "total_long_balls": 4.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0707, 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1.4897 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.7079, "after": 1.6985 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0765, "after": 1.0833 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8338, "after": 0.8396 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.0963, "tackles_won": 1.2887, "clearances": 3.3086, "aerial_won": 1.2294, "total_shots": 0.8396, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 87.12, "total_pass": 34.4409, "accurate_pass": 28.6965, "duels_won": 5.7265, "total_long_balls": 4.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0707, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6258, "crosses_total": 1.4897, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 56.2452, "possession_lost": 10.3209, "dispossessed": 0.6332, "duels_lost": 4.7252, "aerial_lost": 1.6763, "total_contest": 1.1059, "won_contest": 0.266, "ball_recovery": 3.9385, "challenges_lost": 0.6079, "fouls": 0.9967, "fouls_drawn": 1.6985, "blocks": 0.4494, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0578, "expected_assists": 0.035, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "big_chances_created": 0.0766, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 14.6526, "total_progression": 71.7709, "progressive_carries": 1.6051, "key_pass": 0.1864, "shots_off_target": 0.5274 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.0963, "tackles_won": 1.2887, "clearances": 3.3086, "aerial_won": 1.2294, "total_shots": 0.8396, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 87.12, "total_pass": 34.4409, "accurate_pass": 28.6965, "duels_won": 5.7265, "total_long_balls": 4.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0707, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6258, "crosses_total": 1.4897, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 56.2452, "possession_lost": 10.3209, "dispossessed": 0.6332, "duels_lost": 4.7252, "aerial_lost": 1.6763, "total_contest": 1.1059, "won_contest": 0.266, "ball_recovery": 3.9385, "challenges_lost": 0.6079, "fouls": 0.9967, "fouls_drawn": 1.6985, "blocks": 0.4494, "goals": 0.0587, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0578, "expected_assists": 0.035, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "big_chances_created": 0.0766, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 14.6526, "total_progression": 71.7709, "progressive_carries": 1.6051, "key_pass": 0.1864, "shots_off_target": 0.5274, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.0963, "tackles_won": 1.2887, "clearances": 3.3086, "aerial_won": 1.2294, "total_shots": 0.8396, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 87.12, "total_pass": 34.4409, "accurate_pass": 28.6965, "duels_won": 5.7265, "total_long_balls": 4.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0707, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6258, "crosses_total": 1.4897, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 56.2452, "possession_lost": 10.3209, "dispossessed": 0.6332, "duels_lost": 4.7252, "aerial_lost": 1.6763, "total_contest": 1.1059, "won_contest": 0.266, "ball_recovery": 3.9385, "challenges_lost": 0.6079, "fouls": 0.9967, "fouls_drawn": 1.6985, "blocks": 0.4494, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0578, "expected_assists": 0.035, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "big_chances_created": 0.0766, "xgot": 0.0417, "ball_carries": 14.6526, "total_progression": 71.7709, "progressive_carries": 1.6051, "key_pass": 0.1864, "shots_off_target": 0.5274, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.0963, "tackles_won": 1.2887, "clearances": 3.3086, "aerial_won": 1.2294, "total_shots": 0.8396, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 87.12, "total_pass": 34.4409, "accurate_pass": 28.6965, "duels_won": 5.7265, "total_long_balls": 4.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0707, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6258, "crosses_total": 1.4897, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 56.2452, "possession_lost": 10.3209, "dispossessed": 0.6332, "duels_lost": 4.7252, "aerial_lost": 1.6763, "total_contest": 1.1059, "won_contest": 0.266, "ball_recovery": 3.9385, "challenges_lost": 0.6079, "fouls": 0.9967, "fouls_drawn": 1.6985, "blocks": 0.4494, "goal_rate": 0.0587, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.074, "expected_assists": 0.0448, "shots_on_target": 0.3066, "big_chances_created": 0.0766, "xgot": 0.0534, "ball_carries": 14.6526, "total_progression": 71.7709, "progressive_carries": 1.6051, "key_pass": 0.1864, "shots_off_target": 0.5274, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0083, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0578, "after": 0.074 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.035, "after": 0.0448 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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2146, "fifa_rank": 1557.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0833, "tackles": 2.0963, "tackles_won": 1.2887, "clearances": 3.3086, "aerial_won": 1.2294, "total_shots": 0.8396, "rating": 6.8072, "minutes": 87.12, "total_pass": 34.4409, "accurate_pass": 28.6965, "duels_won": 5.7265, "total_long_balls": 4.1172, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6259, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7799, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.0707, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.6611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6258, "crosses_total": 1.4897, "crosses_accurate": 0.2067, "touches": 56.2452, "possession_lost": 10.3209, "dispossessed": 0.6332, "duels_lost": 4.7252, "aerial_lost": 1.6763, "total_contest": 1.1059, "won_contest": 0.266, "ball_recovery": 3.9385, 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0.5426280498504639, "model_output": 0.5426, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0614 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0318 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0129 } ], "others": -0.0489, "total": 0.5426, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.061358 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.031832 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.020564 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.015316 }, { "name": "totalProgression", 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"margin": -0.009266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.007055 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.006986 } ], "others_margin": 0.025928 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 15, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9961, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2055, "tackles": 1.1974, "tackles_won": 0.6826, "clearances": 5.7991, "aerial_won": 1.6254, "total_shots": 0.5405, "rating": 6.7893, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 40.4601, "accurate_pass": 35.2848, "duels_won": 2.3612, "total_long_balls": 4.1372, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0161, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.075, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2097, "crosses_total": 0.1742, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6905, "possession_lost": 5.9988, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.3813, "aerial_lost": 1.3277, "total_contest": 0.0475, "won_contest": 0.0475, "ball_recovery": 2.5595, "challenges_lost": 0.0773, "fouls": 1.0536, "fouls_drawn": 0.255, "blocks": 0.7146, "goals": 0.1041, 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52.6905, "possession_lost": 5.9988, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.3813, "aerial_lost": 1.3277, "total_contest": 0.0475, "won_contest": 0.0475, "ball_recovery": 2.5595, "challenges_lost": 0.0773, "fouls": 1.0205, "fouls_drawn": 0.247, "blocks": 0.7146, "goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.1008, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.2308, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.079, "ball_carries": 15.0926, "total_progression": 41.6822, "progressive_carries": 0.5439, "key_pass": 0.0403, "shots_off_target": 0.3022 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2, "tackles": 1.1974, "tackles_won": 0.6719, "clearances": 5.7991, "aerial_won": 1.6254, "total_shots": 0.533, "rating": 6.7893, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 40.4601, 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0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2, "tackles": 1.1974, "tackles_won": 0.6719, "clearances": 5.7991, "aerial_won": 1.6254, "total_shots": 0.533, "rating": 6.7893, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 40.4601, "accurate_pass": 35.2848, "duels_won": 2.3612, "total_long_balls": 4.1372, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0161, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.075, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.444, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2097, "crosses_total": 0.1687, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 52.6905, "possession_lost": 5.9988, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.3813, "aerial_lost": 1.3277, "total_contest": 0.0475, "won_contest": 0.0475, "ball_recovery": 2.5595, "challenges_lost": 0.0773, "fouls": 1.0205, "fouls_drawn": 0.247, "blocks": 0.7146, "goal_rate": 0.1008, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.2308, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.079, "ball_carries": 15.0926, "total_progression": 41.6822, "progressive_carries": 0.5439, "key_pass": 0.0403, "shots_off_target": 0.3022, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605, "opponent_faced": "Lamine Yamal", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2, "tackles": 1.1974, "tackles_won": 0.6719, "clearances": 5.7991, "aerial_won": 1.6254, "total_shots": 0.533, "rating": 6.7893, "minutes": 89.52, "total_pass": 40.4601, "accurate_pass": 35.2848, "duels_won": 2.3612, "total_long_balls": 4.1372, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2425, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0161, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.075, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.045, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0943, "after": 0.1207 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Pérez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Toti", "ranking": 4204 }, { "player_name": "Tristan Crama", "ranking": 4205 }, { "player_name": "Léo Scienza", "ranking": 4206 }, { "player_name": "Iván Villar", "ranking": 4207 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Avom Ebong", "ranking": 4208 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Salomón Rondón", "ranking": 4210 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Niño", "ranking": 4211 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Lopes", "ranking": 4212 }, { "player_name": "Thorgan Hazard", "ranking": 4213 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Lala", "ranking": 4214 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 25, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", 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"others_margin": 0.078683 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.5539273023605347, "model_output": 0.5539, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0763 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.028 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0254 } ], "others": 0.0275, "total": 0.5539, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.215147 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117419 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.065348 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.057556 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.049414 } ], "others_margin": 0.051125 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.6191229820251465, "model_output": 1.6191, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2948 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1586 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0936 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0593 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0445 } ], "others": -0.0134, "total": 1.6191, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.294824 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.158629 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.093587 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059336 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.044548 } ], "others_margin": -0.013531 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.864575386047363, "model_output": 6.8646, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0434 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.015 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0135 } ], "others": 0.0168, "total": 6.8646, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.043367 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.022819 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016118 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015018 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.013482 } ], "others_margin": 0.016734 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3212, "expected_assists": 0.1642, "assists": 0.1345, "assist_rate": 0.1345, "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goals": 0.1811, "goal_rate": 0.1811, "shots_on_target": 0.5526, "total_shots": 1.6152, "rating": 6.8646, "minutes": 82.19, "total_pass": 22.0811, "accurate_pass": 17.1327, "duels_won": 3.7272, "total_long_balls": 2.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2205, "total_own_half_passes": 6.7188, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.847, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.3621, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2856, "crosses_total": 4.3879, "crosses_accurate": 1.4104, "touches": 43.4231, "possession_lost": 12.9954, "dispossessed": 0.4662, "duels_lost": 4.4116, "aerial_won": 0.2219, "aerial_lost": 0.1046, "interceptions": 0.7113, "tackles_won": 0.8314, "tackles": 1.0765, "clearances": 0.8564, "total_contest": 3.7468, "won_contest": 1.5139, "challenges_lost": 0.513, "fouls": 1.1019, "fouls_drawn": 0.9149, "blocks": 0.2688, "big_chances_created": 0.5142, "big_chances_missed": 0.1201, "xgot": 0.1191, "ball_carries": 11.8341, "total_progression": 65.8154, "progressive_carries": 2.7627, "shots_off_target": 1.0626 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0173)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3212, "expected_assists": 0.1642, "assists": 0.1388, "assist_rate": 0.1388, "expected_goals": 0.1463, "goals": 0.178, "goal_rate": 0.178, "shots_on_target": 0.5497, "total_shots": 1.614, "rating": 6.8646, "minutes": 82.19, "total_pass": 22.0811, "accurate_pass": 17.1327, "duels_won": 3.7272, "total_long_balls": 2.5382, "accurate_long_balls": 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1.8606, "after": 1.845 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 2.2059, "after": 2.1975 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2608, "after": 1.2527 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0776, "after": 1.0833 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7774, "expected_assists": 0.0678, "assists": 0.0734, "assist_rate": 0.0734, "expected_goals": 0.073, "goals": 0.0901, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "shots_on_target": 0.2861, "total_shots": 1.0833, "rating": 6.8418, "minutes": 82.73, "total_pass": 30.7491, "accurate_pass": 26.2189, "duels_won": 6.6788, "total_long_balls": 2.1893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.899, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0803, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9077, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3113, "crosses_total": 1.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4649, "touches": 50.436, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 1.4385, "duels_lost": 5.4297, "aerial_won": 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"opponent_defenders": "Rodri, Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.6995, "skill_edge": -0.1904, "height_edge": -0.014, "attacker_skill": 0.4567, "defender_skill": 0.8799, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Rodri", "market_value": 54000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8599 }, { "player": "Pedri", "market_value": 164000000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.8999 } ], "xg_override": 0.0511 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0833, "after": 0.7578 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7916, "after": 0.5537 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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10.9077, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6689, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.3113, "crosses_total": 1.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4649, "touches": 50.436, "possession_lost": 10.4593, "dispossessed": 1.4385, "duels_lost": 5.4297, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8542, "interceptions": 1.4289, "tackles_won": 1.2527, "tackles": 2.5343, "clearances": 1.1598, "total_contest": 1.7685, "won_contest": 1.1277, "challenges_lost": 1.004, "fouls": 1.4896, "fouls_drawn": 2.1975, "blocks": 0.3331, "big_chances_created": 0.0046, "big_chances_missed": 0.0676, "xgot": 0.0574, "ball_carries": 16.7853, "total_progression": 71.6426, "progressive_carries": 1.7876, "shots_off_target": 0.5537, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6995, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Rodri, Pedri", "opponent_faced": "Rodri, Pedri", 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": 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{ "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0059 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0058 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0049 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0038 } ], "others": 0.0097, "total": 0.0784, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.178462 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.073776 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.072769 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.066063 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.053704 } ], "others_margin": 0.132572 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7310228943824768, "model_output": 0.731, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1756 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0585 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0529 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0313 } ], "others": -0.044, "total": 0.731, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.225544 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.069641 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067417 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.061701 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03962 } ], "others_margin": -0.058425 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7585015296936035, "model_output": 6.7585, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.051 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 6.7585, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051038 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019202 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.017753 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.013002 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012235 } ], "others_margin": -0.028319 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0723, "goals": 0.0709, "goal_rate": 0.0709, "shots_on_target": 0.3265, "total_shots": 0.9675, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "key_pass": 0.7293, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 77.49, "total_pass": 22.4566, "accurate_pass": 17.4691, "duels_won": 4.495, "total_long_balls": 2.3302, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2216, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2629, "crosses_total": 3.6743, "crosses_accurate": 0.4601, "touches": 45.6801, "possession_lost": 13.4372, "dispossessed": 0.4046, "duels_lost": 4.731, "aerial_lost": 0.8112, "total_contest": 2.2624, "won_contest": 0.8514, "ball_recovery": 4.0687, "challenges_lost": 0.9451, "fouls": 1.2639, "fouls_drawn": 1.161, "assists": 0.0545, "assist_rate": 0.0545, "interceptions": 0.9142, "tackles_won": 1.0276, "tackles": 1.9076, "clearances": 0.9937, "blocks": 0.0935, "big_chances_created": 0.0864, "big_chances_missed": 0.0036, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0.0565, "ball_carries": 13.532, "total_progression": 74.9471, "progressive_carries": 2.547, "shots_off_target": 0.6409 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9977, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0723, "goals": 0.0709, "goal_rate": 0.0709, "shots_on_target": 0.3265, "total_shots": 0.9675, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "key_pass": 0.7293, "rating": 6.7585, "minutes": 77.49, "total_pass": 22.4566, "accurate_pass": 17.4691, "duels_won": 4.495, "total_long_balls": 2.3302, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2216, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7427, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9986, quality 0.466)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3042, "goals": 0.3395, "goal_rate": 0.3395, "shots_on_target": 0.7761, "total_shots": 2.1157, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2828, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7857, "fouls_drawn": 1.5902, "assists": 0.0059, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "interceptions": 0.0393, "tackles_won": 0.9877, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.1866, "xgot": 0.3887, "offsides": 0.483, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 1.3396 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5300000, "quality_factor": 0.4659, "boost_factor": 0.9986, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0081)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3042, "goals": 0.3412, "goal_rate": 0.3412, "shots_on_target": 0.7789, "total_shots": 2.1212, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5863, "assists": 0.0059, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "interceptions": 0.039, "tackles_won": 1.002, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.1866, "xgot": 0.3887, "offsides": 0.4791, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 1.3396 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0081, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8842, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9877, "after": 1.002 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1157, "after": 2.1212 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3042, "goals": 0.3412, "goal_rate": 0.3412, "shots_on_target": 0.7789, "total_shots": 2.1212, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5863, "assists": 0.0059, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "interceptions": 0.039, "tackles_won": 1.002, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.1866, "xgot": 0.3887, "offsides": 0.4791, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 1.3396 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2087, "goals": 0.2341, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4554, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5863, "assists": 0.0059, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "interceptions": 0.039, "tackles_won": 1.002, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.128, "xgot": 0.2667, "offsides": 0.4791, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 0.9191, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6861, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.6861, "skill_edge": -0.1916, "height_edge": -0.022, "attacker_skill": 0.4659, "defender_skill": 0.8915, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "market_value": 94000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8981 }, { "player": "Joan García", "market_value": 46000000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.885 } ], "xg_override": 0.2087 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.1212, "after": 1.4554 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3396, "after": 0.9191 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7789, "after": 0.5344 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3887, "after": 0.2667 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3412, "after": 0.2341 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3042, "after": 0.2087 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1866, "after": 0.128 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2087, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4554, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5863, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.039, "tackles_won": 1.002, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.128, "xgot": 0.2667, "offsides": 0.4791, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 0.9191, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6861, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2672, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4554, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5863, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.039, "tackles_won": 1.002, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.128, "xgot": 0.3415, "offsides": 0.4791, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 0.9191, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6861, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0982, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2087, "after": 0.2672 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0699, "after": 0.0895 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2672, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4554, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5863, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.039, "tackles_won": 1.002, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.128, "xgot": 0.3415, "offsides": 0.4791, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 0.9191, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6861, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0982, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2629, "fifa_rank": 1550.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2672, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4554, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.3221, "crosses_total": 0.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.075, "touches": 36.1884, "possession_lost": 13.1861, "dispossessed": 1.7551, "duels_lost": 10.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.5722, "total_contest": 2.7838, "won_contest": 0.7696, "ball_recovery": 3.1191, "challenges_lost": 1.106, "fouls": 2.7855, "fouls_drawn": 1.5863, "assist_rate": 0.0059, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.039, "tackles_won": 1.002, "tackles": 1.4741, "clearances": 0.9974, "blocks": 0.1389, "big_chances_created": 0.0839, "big_chances_missed": 0.128, "xgot": 0.3415, "offsides": 0.4791, "ball_carries": 11.022, "total_progression": 17.7666, "progressive_carries": 1.2017, "shots_off_target": 0.9191, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6861, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Joan García", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2345, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0982, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2345, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "scorer_weight": 0.2934, "squad_weight_total": 1.3792, "weight_share": 0.2128, "finishing_factor": 1.0982, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2672, "goal_rate": 0.2341, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5344, "total_shots": 1.4554, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "key_pass": 0.8349, "rating": 6.8239, "minutes": 79.58, "total_pass": 16.3231, "accurate_pass": 11.9313, "duels_won": 5.7285, "total_long_balls": 0.656, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4371, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2109, 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{ "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.015356 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.015246 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014703 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011885 } ], "others_margin": -0.028347 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.490)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3325, "goals": 0.3533, "goal_rate": 0.3533, "shots_on_target": 0.8555, "total_shots": 2.4289, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5872, "rating": 6.7958, "minutes": 74.73, "total_pass": 13.9036, "accurate_pass": 8.152, "duels_won": 6.4989, "total_long_balls": 0.4751, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9607, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9978, "crosses_total": 0.1557, "crosses_accurate": 0.0485, "touches": 25.009, "possession_lost": 9.7428, "dispossessed": 0.9923, "duels_lost": 6.3415, "aerial_lost": 3.2313, "total_contest": 0.8309, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 1.252, "challenges_lost": 0.3879, "fouls": 1.0594, "fouls_drawn": 1.3562, "assists": 0.0179, "assist_rate": 0.0179, "interceptions": 0.005, "tackles_won": 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constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3325, "goals": 0.3494, "goal_rate": 0.3494, "shots_on_target": 0.8461, "total_shots": 2.4268, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5872, "rating": 6.7958, "minutes": 74.73, "total_pass": 13.9036, "accurate_pass": 8.152, "duels_won": 6.4989, "total_long_balls": 0.4751, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9607, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9978, "crosses_total": 0.154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0485, "touches": 25.009, "possession_lost": 9.7428, "dispossessed": 0.9923, "duels_lost": 6.3415, "aerial_lost": 3.2313, "total_contest": 0.8309, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 1.252, "challenges_lost": 0.3879, "fouls": 1.0548, "fouls_drawn": 1.3589, "assists": 0.0177, "assist_rate": 0.0177, "interceptions": 0.0049, "tackles_won": 0.5696, "tackles": 0.6689, "clearances": 1.012, "blocks": 0.1116, "big_chances_created": 0.2111, "big_chances_missed": 0.3177, "xgot": 0.2369, "offsides": 0.3446, "ball_carries": 5.0782, "total_progression": 8.7279, "progressive_carries": 0.5521, "shots_off_target": 1.5734 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2276, "goals": 0.2392, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "shots_on_target": 0.5792, "total_shots": 1.6614, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5872, "rating": 6.7958, "minutes": 74.73, "total_pass": 13.9036, "accurate_pass": 8.152, "duels_won": 6.4989, "total_long_balls": 0.4751, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9607, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9978, "crosses_total": 0.154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0485, "touches": 25.009, "possession_lost": 9.7428, "dispossessed": 0.9923, "duels_lost": 6.3415, "aerial_lost": 3.2313, "total_contest": 0.8309, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 1.252, "challenges_lost": 0.3879, "fouls": 1.0548, 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0.2369, "after": 0.1622 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2276, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5792, "total_shots": 1.6614, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "key_pass": 0.5872, "rating": 6.7958, "minutes": 74.73, "total_pass": 13.9036, "accurate_pass": 8.152, "duels_won": 6.4989, "total_long_balls": 0.4751, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9607, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9978, "crosses_total": 0.154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0485, "touches": 25.009, "possession_lost": 9.7428, "dispossessed": 0.9923, "duels_lost": 6.3415, "aerial_lost": 3.2313, "total_contest": 0.8309, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 1.252, "challenges_lost": 0.3879, "fouls": 1.0548, "fouls_drawn": 1.3589, "assist_rate": 0.0177, "assists": 0, 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unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2914, "goal_rate": 0.2392, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5792, "total_shots": 1.6614, "expected_assists": 0.0428, "key_pass": 0.5872, "rating": 6.7958, "minutes": 74.73, "total_pass": 13.9036, "accurate_pass": 8.152, "duels_won": 6.4989, "total_long_balls": 0.4751, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2723, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.9607, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9978, "crosses_total": 0.154, "crosses_accurate": 0.0485, "touches": 25.009, "possession_lost": 9.7428, "dispossessed": 0.9923, "duels_lost": 6.3415, "aerial_lost": 3.2313, "total_contest": 0.8309, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 1.252, "challenges_lost": 0.3879, "fouls": 1.0548, "fouls_drawn": 1.3589, "assist_rate": 0.0177, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0049, "tackles_won": 0.5696, "tackles": 0.6689, "clearances": 1.012, "blocks": 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"projected_substitutes": 4, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083578, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0279, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083364, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083202, "match_date": "2026-04-25", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083295, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2795, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083152, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081809, "match_date": "2026-04-05", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1129, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083689, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2617, "combined_rank_score": 1181.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 916.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4966, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1447.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Victor Parada", 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"decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7995 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1091 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0241 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0242, "total": 0.4174, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.871689 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.210408 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.053112 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.023364 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.023292 } ], "others_margin": -0.056486 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17971810698509216, "model_output": 0.1797, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2221 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0085 } ], "others": -0.034, "total": 0.1797, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.222126 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016883 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00995 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008985 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008489 } ], "others_margin": -0.033929 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.672418594360352, "model_output": 6.6724, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 6.6724, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.045921 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016902 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011342 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011226 } ], "others_margin": -0.021413 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.449)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2876, "tackles": 0.5174, "tackles_won": 0.2676, "clearances": 1.0655, "aerial_won": 0.4164, "total_shots": 0.1793, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 20.49, "total_pass": 5.6861, "accurate_pass": 4.135, "duels_won": 1.6125, "total_long_balls": 1.2703, "accurate_long_balls": 0.538, "total_own_half_passes": 2.1519, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.1519, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5342, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.983, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2182, "possession_lost": 2.5802, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5499, "aerial_lost": 0.269, "total_contest": 0.3304, "won_contest": 0.3304, "ball_recovery": 0.9722, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2808, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.269, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0039, "total": 0.0489, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.496397 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.233425 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.163142 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.058507 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.040034 } ], "others_margin": -0.076346 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1990957409143448, "model_output": 0.1991, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0183 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0099 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": 0.0056, "total": 0.1991, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.576618 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.115973 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.108781 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.054162 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.033342 } ], "others_margin": 0.029067 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.498803049325943, "model_output": 0.4988, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4048 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1695 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0281 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.018 } ], "others": 0.0374, "total": 0.4988, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.404822 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.169543 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.043897 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028094 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.018007 } ], "others_margin": 0.037453 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.819421768188477, "model_output": 6.8194, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0669 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.8194, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06695 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063139 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.022328 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.022199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017852 } ], "others_margin": -0.015053 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "assists": 0.0796, "assist_rate": 0.0796, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "goals": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0488, "shots_on_target": 0.1989, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 35.02, "total_pass": 14.8201, "accurate_pass": 11.3011, "duels_won": 2.4199, "total_long_balls": 0.5803, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3104, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9906, "crosses_total": 4.8444, "crosses_accurate": 1.7379, "touches": 27.1317, "possession_lost": 8.6902, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.9842, "aerial_won": 0.4195, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.4182, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.5114, "total_contest": 1.1887, "won_contest": 0.5917, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6417, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.1451, "ball_carries": 7.7588, "total_progression": 14.677, "progressive_carries": 1.3417, "shots_off_target": 0.2995 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 35.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.19, "projection_minutes": 35.02, "minutes_scale": 0.6335, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "creation_factor": 1.0469 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0356, "after": 0.0232 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0459, "after": 0.0299 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "creation_factor": 1.0469, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3136, "fifa_rank": 1812.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "creation_factor": 1.0469, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "scorer_weight": 0.0219, "squad_weight_total": 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"contribution": -0.1102 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": 0.0007, "total": 0.1712, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.425887 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.238117 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.132644 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.112611 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.061466 } ], "others_margin": 0.004643 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4694708287715912, "model_output": 0.4695, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3737 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2085 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.081 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0255 } ], "others": 0.0463, "total": 0.4695, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.373668 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.208541 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.081049 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031789 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.025527 } ], "others_margin": 0.046217 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.718099594116211, "model_output": 6.7181, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0904 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 6.7181, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090439 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023257 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010721 } ], "others_margin": -0.008003 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6009, "expected_assists": 0.0656, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1709, "total_shots": 0.4684, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4511, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2975 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6009, "expected_assists": 0.0656, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1715, "total_shots": 0.4689, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2975 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, 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"assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 0.9877 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0476, "after": 0.0422 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, 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"importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0618 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.06, "total": 6.6467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061783 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029914 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01281 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.008884 } ], "others_margin": -0.060028 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0725, "goal_rate": 0.0725, "shots_on_target": 0.2352, "total_shots": 0.6165, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "key_pass": 0.3939, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1467, "accurate_pass": 1.4831, "duels_won": 0.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3274, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4831, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4, "possession_lost": 2.0976, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.0488, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1557, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3852, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "tackles": 0.3852, "clearances": 0.2784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8683, "total_progression": 15.4724, "progressive_carries": 0.3852, "shots_off_target": 0.3812 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.37, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1352, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0898, "after": 0.0646 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0423, "after": 0.0304 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, 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"margin": -0.059334 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022102 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010515 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009359 } ], "others_margin": -0.050455 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9932, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1176, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.3069, "total_shots": 0.7631, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "key_pass": 0.2434, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 33.88, "total_pass": 6.8638, "accurate_pass": 4.5016, "duels_won": 2.8606, "total_long_balls": 0.5299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.324, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2116, "possession_lost": 3.8247, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1914, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4564, "fouls_drawn": 0.5767, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3828, "clearances": 0.2649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 3.6019, "total_progression": 4.2071, "progressive_carries": 0.5031, "shots_off_target": 0.4562 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9932, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 33.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 33.88, "minutes_scale": 0.7465, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "creation_factor": 0.8606 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0878, "after": 0.0628 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4539, "fifa_rank": 4298.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0594, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0058, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.005, "squad_weight_total": 0.8425, "weight_share": 0.0059, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1853, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1853, "runner_up": "Hugo Novoa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1136, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Carles Aleñá": { "player_id": 794937, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0904 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0405 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0233 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0107 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 6.7181, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.090439 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.03295 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.023257 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010721 } ], "others_margin": -0.008003 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6009, "expected_assists": 0.0656, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1709, "total_shots": 0.4684, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4511, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2806, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1706, "fouls_drawn": 0.4822, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2975 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6009, "expected_assists": 0.0656, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.0477, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.1715, "total_shots": 0.4689, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 18.18, "total_pass": 10.3031, "accurate_pass": 9.0504, "duels_won": 0.9832, "total_long_balls": 0.466, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3209, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4275, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7759, "crosses_total": 1.4523, "crosses_accurate": 0.2952, "touches": 15.2531, "possession_lost": 3.5154, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.421, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2814, "tackles": 0.3523, "clearances": 0.0196, "total_contest": 0.3498, "won_contest": 0.1487, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1705, "fouls_drawn": 0.482, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1383, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0018, "ball_carries": 4.2876, "total_progression": 5.2429, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2975 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.202, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Alavés" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.2 to 13.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.19, "projection_minutes": 18.18, "minutes_scale": 0.7255, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assists": 0.0464, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0476, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0346, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0013, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 0.9877 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0476, "after": 0.0422 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 0.9877, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2212, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.03, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 0.9877, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.03, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "scorer_weight": 0.0303, "squad_weight_total": 1.3792, "weight_share": 0.022, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.436, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0307, "goal_rate": 0.0336, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1244, "total_shots": 0.3403, "rating": 6.7181, "minutes": 13.19, "total_pass": 7.4751, "accurate_pass": 6.5663, "duels_won": 0.7133, "total_long_balls": 0.3381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2328, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7612, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6503, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.7139, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9161, "crosses_total": 1.0537, "crosses_accurate": 0.2142, "touches": 11.0665, "possession_lost": 2.5505, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 1.031, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.2198, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2042, "tackles": 0.2556, "clearances": 0.0142, "total_contest": 0.2538, "won_contest": 0.1079, "challenges_lost": 0.027, "fouls": 0.1237, "fouls_drawn": 0.3497, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1003, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0012, "ball_carries": 3.1108, "total_progression": 3.8038, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2158, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.03, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0409, "finishing_factor": 0.9882, "creation_factor": 0.9877, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0409, "assist_rate": 0.0464, "provider_weight": 0.0417, "squad_weight_total": 0.8425, "weight_share": 0.0495, "creation_factor": 0.9877, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1853, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1853, "runner_up": "Hugo Novoa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1136, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Miguel Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1014118, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0304, 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.061, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 1.1352, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416334, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416328, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416318, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4196, "combined_rank_score": 2227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6467, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sosa", "ranking": 4191 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 4192 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Marín", "ranking": 4193 }, { "player_name": "Yvan Neyou", "ranking": 4194 }, { "player_name": "Sidiki Cherif", "ranking": 4195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Navarro", "ranking": 4197 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 4198 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Pentz", "ranking": 4199 }, { "player_name": "Álex Sancris", "ranking": 4200 }, { "player_name": "Bartosz Slisz", "ranking": 4201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", 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"ball_carries": 1.8853, "total_progression": 15.6129, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "shots_off_target": 0.3847 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "F", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:30:56.271646+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 610, "rows": 17075 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3887, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.3304, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 12.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.2809, "rating": 6.4 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 3.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateOppositionHalfPasses": 1.4966, "expectedGoals": 0.0, "totalOppositionHalfPasses": 2.1662, "accuratePass": 1.4966, "totalShots": 0.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.060393571853637695, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.49776 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.125981 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.041524 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.038043 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.029744 } ], "others_margin": -0.101426 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.02843313105404377, "model_output": 0.0284, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0051 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.003 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0028 } ], "others": 0.0002, "total": 0.0284, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.356913 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.314347 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.167729 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.102934 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.093501 } ], "others_margin": 0.00763 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3974663019180298, "model_output": 0.3975, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2709 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0517 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0237 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0234 } ], "others": -0.0436, "total": 0.3975, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494997 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.115375 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.072661 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.055118 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.054438 } ], "others_margin": -0.10423 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.646739482879639, "model_output": 6.6467, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0618 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0299 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0089 } ], "others": -0.06, "total": 6.6467, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.061783 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.029914 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013172 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01281 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.008884 } ], "others_margin": -0.060028 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9910, quality 0.457)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0599, "goals": 0.0725, "goal_rate": 0.0725, "shots_on_target": 0.2352, "total_shots": 0.6165, "expected_assists": 0.0282, "key_pass": 0.3939, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 12.79, "total_pass": 2.1467, "accurate_pass": 1.4831, "duels_won": 0.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.3274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3274, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.1467, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4831, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.4, "possession_lost": 2.0976, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.0488, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.1557, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3852, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "tackles": 0.3852, "clearances": 0.2784, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8683, "total_progression": 15.4724, "progressive_carries": 0.3852, "shots_off_target": 0.3812 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4600000, "quality_factor": 0.4572, "boost_factor": 0.991, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 12.8 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.37, "projection_minutes": 12.79, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goals": 0.1087, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0898, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0423, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1352, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0898, "after": 0.0646 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0423, "after": 0.0304 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1352, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4196, "fifa_rank": 4258.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.061, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1352, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.061, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "scorer_weight": 0.0733, "squad_weight_total": 1.3792, "weight_share": 0.0532, "finishing_factor": 1.1352, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0646, "goal_rate": 0.1087, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3528, "total_shots": 0.9248, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.5908, "rating": 6.6467, "minutes": 25.37, "total_pass": 3.2201, "accurate_pass": 2.2247, "duels_won": 1.1557, "total_long_balls": 0.4911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4911, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2201, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2247, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.1, "possession_lost": 3.1464, "dispossessed": 0.7705, "duels_lost": 1.5732, "aerial_lost": 0.2784, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.7335, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5778, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5778, "tackles": 0.5778, "clearances": 0.4176, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8025, "total_progression": 23.2086, "progressive_carries": 0.5778, "shots_off_target": 0.5718, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.37, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.061, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 1.1352, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0243, "squad_weight_total": 0.8425, "weight_share": 0.0289, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1853, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1853, "runner_up": "Hugo Novoa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1136, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ibrahim Diabaté": { "player_id": 1084043, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 185, "market_value": 1400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, 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0.8606, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0807, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0689, 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"margin": -0.059334 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022102 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010656 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010515 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009359 } ], "others_margin": -0.050455 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9932, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1176, "goals": 0.1286, "goal_rate": 0.1286, "shots_on_target": 0.3069, "total_shots": 0.7631, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "key_pass": 0.2434, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 33.88, "total_pass": 6.8638, "accurate_pass": 4.5016, "duels_won": 2.8606, "total_long_balls": 0.5299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.2299, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.324, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2116, "possession_lost": 3.8247, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.9327, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1914, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4564, "fouls_drawn": 0.5767, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.3828, "clearances": 0.2649, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0239, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 3.6019, "total_progression": 4.2071, "progressive_carries": 0.5031, "shots_off_target": 0.4562 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1400000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9932, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 33.9 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 33.88, "minutes_scale": 0.7465, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goals": 0.096, "goal_rate": 0.096, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0878, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0178, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "creation_factor": 0.8606 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0878, "after": 0.0628 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4539, "fifa_rank": 4298.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0594, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0594, "goal_rate": 0.096, "scorer_weight": 0.0665, "squad_weight_total": 1.3792, "weight_share": 0.0482, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0628, "goal_rate": 0.096, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2291, "total_shots": 0.5697, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "key_pass": 0.1817, "rating": 6.6111, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 5.124, "accurate_pass": 3.3606, "duels_won": 2.1355, "total_long_balls": 0.3956, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.9042, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4814, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.1162, "possession_lost": 2.8552, "dispossessed": 0.2649, "duels_lost": 1.4428, "aerial_lost": 1.2114, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3407, "fouls_drawn": 0.4305, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2858, "clearances": 0.1978, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0127, "offsides": 0.1914, "ball_carries": 2.6889, "total_progression": 3.1407, "progressive_carries": 0.3756, "shots_off_target": 0.3406, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0594, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0058, "finishing_factor": 1.0595, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0058, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.005, "squad_weight_total": 0.8425, "weight_share": 0.0059, "creation_factor": 0.8606, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1853, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1853, "runner_up": "Hugo Novoa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1136, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] }, "Carlos Vicente": { "player_id": 1084399, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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"contribution": 0.0223 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.8194, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.06695 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.063139 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.022328 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.022199 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017852 } ], "others_margin": -0.015053 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7296, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "assists": 0.0796, "assist_rate": 0.0796, "expected_goals": 0.0562, "goals": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0488, "shots_on_target": 0.1989, "total_shots": 0.4984, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 35.02, "total_pass": 14.8201, "accurate_pass": 11.3011, "duels_won": 2.4199, "total_long_balls": 0.5803, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2483, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1946, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3104, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.9906, "crosses_total": 4.8444, "crosses_accurate": 1.7379, "touches": 27.1317, "possession_lost": 8.6902, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.9842, "aerial_won": 0.4195, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.4182, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3003, "clearances": 0.5114, "total_contest": 1.1887, "won_contest": 0.5917, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.3708, "fouls_drawn": 1.1084, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6417, "big_chances_missed": 0.0703, "xgot": 0.1451, "ball_carries": 7.7588, "total_progression": 14.677, "progressive_carries": 1.3417, "shots_off_target": 0.2995 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7400000, "quality_factor": 0.4915, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 21, "history_shrink": 0.1923, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 35.0 to 22.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.19, "projection_minutes": 35.02, "minutes_scale": 0.6335, "appearance_probability": 0.508 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assists": 0.0504, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goals": 0.0309, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0459, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0919, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.29 (squad xG sum 1.0060, xG scale 1.2803, xA scale 1.2803, team xA 0.96 = 0.74 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "creation_factor": 1.0469 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.288, "squad_xg_sum": 1.006, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7484, "team_expected_assists": 0.9582, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7439, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2803, "xa_scale": 1.2803, "opponent_lambda": 3.863, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.508 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0356, "after": 0.0232 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0459, "after": 0.0299 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "creation_factor": 1.0469, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3136, "fifa_rank": 1812.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "creation_factor": 1.0469, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "scorer_weight": 0.0219, "squad_weight_total": 1.3792, "weight_share": 0.0159, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Toni Martínez", "weight": 0.3036, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3036, "runner_up": "Lucas Boyé", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2934 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4622, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0232, "goal_rate": 0.0309, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.126, "total_shots": 0.3158, "rating": 6.8194, "minutes": 22.19, "total_pass": 9.389, "accurate_pass": 7.1596, "duels_won": 1.5331, "total_long_balls": 0.3676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1573, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7308, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0981, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4287, "crosses_total": 3.0691, "crosses_accurate": 1.101, "touches": 17.1887, "possession_lost": 5.5055, "dispossessed": 0.1483, "duels_lost": 1.257, "aerial_won": 0.2658, "aerial_lost": 0.4466, "interceptions": 0.2649, "tackles_won": 0.1183, "tackles": 0.1902, "clearances": 0.324, "total_contest": 0.7531, "won_contest": 0.3749, "challenges_lost": 0.4214, "fouls": 0.2349, "fouls_drawn": 0.7022, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4065, "big_chances_missed": 0.0445, "xgot": 0.0598, "ball_carries": 4.9154, "total_progression": 9.2983, "progressive_carries": 0.85, "shots_off_target": 0.1897, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.19, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.625, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.029, "finishing_factor": 0.9451, "creation_factor": 1.0469, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.029, "assist_rate": 0.0504, "provider_weight": 0.0313, "squad_weight_total": 0.8425, "weight_share": 0.0372, "creation_factor": 1.0469, "appearance_weight": 0.508, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ángel Pérez", "weight": 0.1853, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1853, "runner_up": "Hugo Novoa", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1136, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Toni Martínez" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.29, "expected_assists": 0.96, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 334, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Jonny Otto" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.674, "xg_contribution": 0.8222, "xg_multiplier": 1.2847, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jonny Otto", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.326 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Jonny Otto in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 67%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.28 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.822 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Hugo Novoa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.629, "xg_contribution": 0.306, "xg_multiplier": 1.2188, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hugo Novoa", "role": "LB", "market_value": 725000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Hugo Novoa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 63%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.22 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.306 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Ville Koski" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.6414, "xg_multiplier": 1.2867, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 }, { "player": "Ville Koski", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Nahuel Tenaglia and Ville Koski in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.29 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.641 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Rodri", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.629, "xg_contribution": 0.1252, "xg_multiplier": 1.3373, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.371 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodri (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 63%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.34 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.599, "xg_contribution": 0.091, "xg_multiplier": 1.2638, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.401 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.26 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Fermín López", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 113000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.896, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.607, "xg_contribution": 0.2295, "xg_multiplier": 1.2744, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.393 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fermín López (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€113M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.27 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.230 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Brian Fariñas", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.468, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "xg_contribution": 0.0876, "xg_multiplier": 1.0185, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.567 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Fariñas (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Frenkie de Jong", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.525, "xg_contribution": 0.0767, "xg_multiplier": 1.155, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ibáñez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.475 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frenkie de Jong (CM) is slightly favored against Pablo Ibáñez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €4M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Joan García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.85, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2087, "xg_multiplier": 0.6861, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joan García", "role": "GK", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Joan García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €70M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.69 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Toni Martínez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Joan García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.85, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2276, "xg_multiplier": 0.6846, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joan García", "role": "GK", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Toni Martínez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Joan García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €70M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.228 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Abderrahman Rebbach", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Joan García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.85, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0453, "xg_multiplier": 0.6261, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joan García", "role": "GK", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abderrahman Rebbach (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Joan García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €70M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.63 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Joan García" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "xg_contribution": 0.0969, "xg_multiplier": 0.6624, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joan García", "role": "GK", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joan García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €46M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.66 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Ibáñez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Rodri", "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0511, "xg_multiplier": 0.6995, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Ibáñez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rodri and Pedri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.70 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Rodri", "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.031, "xg_multiplier": 0.7313, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rodri and Pedri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.031 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.802, "away_midfield_power": 0.476, "home_creative_power": 0.775, "away_creative_power": 0.483, "home_defensive_power": 0.636, "away_defensive_power": 0.48, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.628, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Brian Fariñas", "Frenkie de Jong", "Pedri", "Fermín López", "Rodri" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ángel Pérez", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Pedri vs Antonio Blanco", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.045, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.962 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.863, "away_lambda": 1.288, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Jonny Otto" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Novoa" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Ville Koski" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brian Fariñas": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Frenkie de Jong": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ibáñez", "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Toni Martínez", "Abderrahman Rebbach" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Boyé", "Toni Martínez", "Abderrahman Rebbach", "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Cancelo": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jonny Otto": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Hugo Novoa": { "opponents": [ "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ville Koski": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Rodri", "Pedri", "Fermín López", "Brian Fariñas", "Frenkie de Jong" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Joan García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Toni Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Joan García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abderrahman Rebbach": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Joan García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Joan García", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Rodri", "Pedri", "Frenkie de Jong" ], "primary_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Pedri vs Antonio Blanco). Total antagonist xG — Home: 2.38, Away: 0.66. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0752, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.005, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0047, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9256, "home_midfield_factor": 1.045, "away_midfield_factor": 0.962, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.769, "away_avg_quality": 0.4589, "avg_quality_gap": 0.31, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.7156, "top5_value_gap_log": 2.8051, "attack_value_gap_log": 2.7955, "elite_count_gap": 7, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7394, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4067, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2366, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 2.3796, "n_duels": 8, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 2.1222 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.045, "result": 2.2177 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 2.3286 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 3.1244 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.2048, "result": 3.7643 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9975, "result": 3.7548 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0047, "result": 3.7725 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0752, "result": 3.8477 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 3.8477, "result": 3.8477, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7394, "factor": 1.4067, "pre": 3.8477, "result": 4.5 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 4.5 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 4.72 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 4.4418 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 4.4418, "result": 4.442, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 4.886 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0429, "pre": 4.886, "result": 5.0956, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1899, "pre": 5.0956, "result": 4.8 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 4.8 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0141, "input_total": 6.127, "result": 4.8675 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 4.8675, "result": 4.8, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 3.863 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6606, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.833 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.962, "result": 0.8013 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.7612 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7612 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9307, "result": 0.7085 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.6081 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9256, "result": 0.5629 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.005, "result": 0.5679 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.5679, "result": 0.6, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": true }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.7394, "factor": 0.7634, "pre": 0.6, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1667, "result": 0.8167 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.4285 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4285, "result": 1.429, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.386 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9571, "pre": 1.386, "result": 1.3265, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9361, "pre": 1.3265, "result": 1.242 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.242 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0141, "input_total": 6.127, "result": 1.2595 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.2595, "result": 1.259, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.288 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1667, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.7394, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1899, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9361, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 5.0956, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.3265, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 4.4418, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4285, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.863, "final_away_lambda": 1.288 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.2048, "attack_index": 1.762, "defense_concede_index": 0.88, "form_multiplier": 1.044, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.63, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.32, "team_ppg": 2.2, "opponent_ppg": 1.26 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9307, "attack_index": 0.971, "defense_concede_index": 0.88, "form_multiplier": 0.956, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.45, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.32, "team_ppg": 1.26, "opponent_ppg": 2.2 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Barcelona vs Alavés. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-4-2 (duel lambdas: Home 4.442, Away 1.429). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 3.863, Away 1.288 (most likely score 3-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 10, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "FC Barcelona", "away_squad": "Deportivo Alavés", "home_goals_per90": 3.6666666666666665, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "away_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "home_goals_against_per90": 4.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 3.863, "away_lambda": 1.288, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 4.442, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.429 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:33:49Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }