{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Levante", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-2", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0964, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0507, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0964, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atlético Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1954, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0964 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0856 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0809 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0728 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.071 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.032, "0-1": 0.071, "0-2": 0.0809, "0-3": 0.0611, "0-4": 0.0346, "0-5": 0.0157, "0-6": 0.0059, "0-7": 0.0019, "0-8": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0371, "1-1": 0.0856, "1-2": 0.0964, "1-3": 0.0728, "1-4": 0.0413, "1-5": 0.0187, "1-6": 0.0071, "1-7": 0.0023, "1-8": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0224, "2-1": 0.0507, "2-2": 0.0574, "2-3": 0.0434, "2-4": 0.0246, "2-5": 0.0111, "2-6": 0.0042, "2-7": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0089, "3-1": 0.0201, "3-2": 0.0228, "3-3": 0.0172, "3-4": 0.0098, "3-5": 0.0044, "3-6": 0.0017, "3-7": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0026, "4-1": 0.006, "4-2": 0.0068, "4-3": 0.0051, "4-4": 0.0029, "4-5": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0006, "5-1": 0.0014, "5-2": 0.0016, "5-3": 0.0012, "5-4": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1894, "draw": 0.1954, "away_win": 0.6151 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6711, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3289, "btts_yes": 0.6243, "btts_no": 0.3757, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1037, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3039 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.8, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.98, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 7.18, "GK": 7.05 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Levante vs Atlético Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 1-2. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Levante 2W-4D-4L vs Atlético Madrid over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Roger Brugué, Julián Alvarez, Alex Baena", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Jon Ander Olasagasti vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.191, "away_lambda": 2.266, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 0.9857, "away_multiplier": 1.0143 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-2", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0964, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1894, "draw": 0.1954, "away_win": 0.6151 }, "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6151, "fair_spread": -1.075, "fair_total": 3.457, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.191, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 2.266, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6711, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6243, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Levante", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1037, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atlético Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3039, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Roger Brugué (Levante)", "estimate": 0.2894, "probability": 0.2513, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Julián Alvarez (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.5577, "probability": 0.4275, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (Levante)", "estimate": 0.1757, "probability": 0.1611, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Baena (Atlético Madrid)", "estimate": 0.2748, "probability": 0.2403, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.457, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 895, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.2, "possession_home_pct": 45.4, "possession_away_pct": 54.6, "notes": "Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atlético Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6151, "script": "Atlético Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.07 goals and fair total 3.46.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Levante must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atlético Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Atlético Madrid chance creation leans on Julián Alvarez against Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Atlético Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Levante: starters carry the main goal usage through Roger Brugué; bench watchlist: Etta Eyong, Petar Ratkov, Enzo Bardeli.", "Atlético Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Julián Alvarez, Alex Baena; bench watchlist: Jonathan David, Thiago Almada.", "Assist usage should flow through Thiago Fernández, Julián Alvarez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atlético Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.73 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Levante is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atlético Madrid.", "Levante wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Levante": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Oriol Rey": { "player_id": 859769, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 175, "market_value": 1700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0246, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7875, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 43, "possession_lost": 5.5168, "dispossessed": 0.455, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6723, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.227, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0243, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0466, "finishing_factor": 1.1747, "creation_factor": 1.1787, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 17122851, "match_date": "2026-10-21", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421070, "match_date": "2026-10-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 47, "rating": 6.5, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421063, "match_date": "2026-10-12", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0085, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, 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"interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416296, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0132, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 23, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4110, "combined_rank_score": 2102.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 698.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 3507.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7875, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Oriol Rey", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Agustín Sández", "ranking": 4105 }, { "player_name": "Axel Tuanzebe", "ranking": 4106 }, { "player_name": "Abdoul Ouattara", "ranking": 4107 }, { "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking": 4108 }, { "player_name": "Cristian Olivera", "ranking": 4109 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aihen Muñoz", "ranking": 4111 }, { "player_name": "David Carmo", "ranking": 4112 }, { "player_name": "Joel Roca", "ranking": 4113 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Katić", "ranking": 4114 }, { "player_name": "Albert Grønbæk", "ranking": 4115 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.78, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.997, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Levante", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 3.0, "minutes": 269.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (M_service) evaluated 29 historical appearances across 8 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Levante, rel: 0.20, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost M_service raw output over 8 target models", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5354, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "assists": 0.0494, "assist_rate": 0.0494, "expected_goals": 0.0304, "goals": 0.0498, "goal_rate": 0.0498, "shots_on_target": 0.1365, "total_shots": 0.5078, "rating": 6.7875, "minutes": 78.23, "total_pass": 33.3326, "accurate_pass": 29.8061, "duels_won": 2.4915, "total_long_balls": 2.372, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0765, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1559, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.1272, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1767, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6789, "crosses_total": 0.4857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0455, "touches": 42.6644, "possession_lost": 5.5334, "dispossessed": 0.4564, "duels_lost": 3.4553, "aerial_won": 0.8484, 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.338 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1178 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0618 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.053 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0463 } ], "others": -0.095, "total": 0.5078, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.338003 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117774 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.061817 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.052988 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.046265 } ], "others_margin": -0.094988 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.787511348724365, "model_output": 6.7875, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.006 } ], "others": -0.0254, "total": 6.7875, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035476 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028967 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.014943 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014888 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.006044 } ], "others_margin": -0.025299 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5338, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0303, "goals": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0496, "shots_on_target": 0.1361, "total_shots": 0.5063, "rating": 6.7875, "minutes": 78.23, "total_pass": 33.2326, "accurate_pass": 29.7167, "duels_won": 2.484, "total_long_balls": 2.3649, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0733, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0848, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1222, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6319, "crosses_total": 0.4842, "crosses_accurate": 0.0454, "touches": 42.5364, "possession_lost": 5.5168, "dispossessed": 0.455, "duels_lost": 3.4449, "aerial_won": 0.8459, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "interceptions": 0.4501, "tackles_won": 0.5365, "tackles": 0.9466, "clearances": 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0.4966 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4842, "after": 0.4749 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6818, "after": 0.6743 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5338, "expected_assists": 0.0334, "assists": 0.0483, "assist_rate": 0.0483, "expected_goals": 0.0303, "goals": 0.0487, "goal_rate": 0.0487, "shots_on_target": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0.5037, "rating": 6.7875, "minutes": 78.23, "total_pass": 33.2326, "accurate_pass": 29.7167, "duels_won": 2.484, "total_long_balls": 2.3649, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0733, "total_own_half_passes": 15.1104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.0848, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1222, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6319, "crosses_total": 0.4749, "crosses_accurate": 0.0454, "touches": 42.5364, "possession_lost": 5.5168, "dispossessed": 0.455, "duels_lost": 3.4449, "aerial_won": 0.8459, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "interceptions": 0.4526, "tackles_won": 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14.0848, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1222, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.6319, "crosses_total": 0.4749, "crosses_accurate": 0.0454, "touches": 42.5364, "possession_lost": 5.5168, "dispossessed": 0.455, "duels_lost": 3.4449, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7924, "interceptions": 0.4526, "tackles_won": 0.5373, "tackles": 0.9466, "clearances": 1.7549, "total_contest": 0.302, "won_contest": 0.0098, "challenges_lost": 0.7871, "fouls": 1.2036, "fouls_drawn": 0.6743, "blocks": 0.4638, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.2758, "total_progression": 35.2901, "progressive_carries": 0.3815, "shots_off_target": 0.2489, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6723, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.227, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": 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0.136579 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.061048 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.048531 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025084 } ], "others_margin": -0.115409 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.110946536064148, "model_output": 1.1109, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1489 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0884 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0235 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0157 } ], "others": -0.0836, "total": 1.1109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.148909 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.08844 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.034682 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.023504 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.015658 } ], "others_margin": -0.083676 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.869441032409668, "model_output": 6.8694, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0285 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0175, "total": 6.8694, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030444 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.03022 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028495 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016273 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.015898 } ], "others_margin": -0.017549 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1228, "assists": 0.1028, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 1.1085, "rating": 6.8694, "minutes": 85.84, "total_pass": 36.8677, "accurate_pass": 28.4957, "duels_won": 4.002, "total_long_balls": 4.3021, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7769, "total_own_half_passes": 17.537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.374, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1217, "crosses_total": 4.6968, "crosses_accurate": 0.9493, "touches": 53.5716, "possession_lost": 14.7792, "dispossessed": 0.5798, "duels_lost": 3.7673, "aerial_won": 0.4426, "aerial_lost": 1.0453, "interceptions": 0.7732, "tackles_won": 1.2277, "tackles": 1.7592, "clearances": 0.9315, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7192, "challenges_lost": 0.7643, "fouls": 0.9721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0808, "blocks": 0.3528, "big_chances_created": 0.3716, "big_chances_missed": 0.0565, "xgot": 0.1184, "ball_carries": 13.6785, "total_progression": 61.2352, "progressive_carries": 1.3927, "shots_off_target": 0.7565 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1228, "assists": 0.1028, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "expected_goals": 0.0824, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.352, "total_shots": 1.1085, "rating": 6.8694, "minutes": 85.84, "total_pass": 36.8677, "accurate_pass": 28.4957, "duels_won": 4.002, "total_long_balls": 4.3021, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7769, "total_own_half_passes": 17.537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.374, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1217, "crosses_total": 4.6968, "crosses_accurate": 0.9493, "touches": 53.5716, "possession_lost": 14.7792, "dispossessed": 0.5798, "duels_lost": 3.7673, "aerial_won": 0.4426, "aerial_lost": 1.0453, "interceptions": 0.7732, "tackles_won": 1.2277, "tackles": 1.7592, "clearances": 0.9315, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7192, "challenges_lost": 0.7643, "fouls": 0.9721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0808, "blocks": 0.3528, "big_chances_created": 0.3716, "big_chances_missed": 0.0565, "xgot": 0.1184, "ball_carries": 13.6785, "total_progression": 61.2352, "progressive_carries": 1.3927, "shots_off_target": 0.7565 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1228, "assists": 0.1028, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goals": 0.0647, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "shots_on_target": 0.2387, "total_shots": 0.7518, "rating": 6.8694, "minutes": 85.84, "total_pass": 36.8677, "accurate_pass": 28.4957, "duels_won": 4.002, "total_long_balls": 4.3021, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7769, "total_own_half_passes": 17.537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.374, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1217, "crosses_total": 4.6968, "crosses_accurate": 0.9493, "touches": 53.5716, "possession_lost": 14.7792, "dispossessed": 0.5798, "duels_lost": 3.7673, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0453, "interceptions": 0.7732, "tackles_won": 1.2277, "tackles": 1.7592, "clearances": 0.9315, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7192, "challenges_lost": 0.7643, "fouls": 0.9721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0808, "blocks": 0.3528, "big_chances_created": 0.3716, "big_chances_missed": 0.0383, "xgot": 0.0803, "ball_carries": 13.6785, "total_progression": 61.2352, "progressive_carries": 1.3927, "shots_off_target": 0.5131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6782, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.6782, "skill_edge": -0.1829, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.8439, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8439 } ], "xg_override": 0.0559 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.4426, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1085, "after": 0.7518 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7565, "after": 0.5131 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.352, "after": 0.2387 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1184, "after": 0.0803 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0954, "after": 0.0647 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0824, "after": 0.0559 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0565, "after": 0.0383 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1228, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2387, "total_shots": 0.7518, "rating": 6.8694, "minutes": 85.84, "total_pass": 36.8677, "accurate_pass": 28.4957, "duels_won": 4.002, "total_long_balls": 4.3021, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7769, "total_own_half_passes": 17.537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.374, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1217, "crosses_total": 4.6968, "crosses_accurate": 0.9493, "touches": 53.5716, "possession_lost": 14.7792, "dispossessed": 0.5798, "duels_lost": 3.7673, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0453, "interceptions": 0.7732, "tackles_won": 1.2277, "tackles": 1.7592, "clearances": 0.9315, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7192, "challenges_lost": 0.7643, "fouls": 0.9721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0808, "blocks": 0.3528, "big_chances_created": 0.3716, "big_chances_missed": 0.0383, "xgot": 0.0803, "ball_carries": 13.6785, "total_progression": 61.2352, "progressive_carries": 1.3927, "shots_off_target": 0.5131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6782, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1757, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2387, "total_shots": 0.7518, 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"crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0831, "creation_factor": 0.8843 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0559, "after": 0.0675 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1228, "after": 0.1757 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1757, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2387, "total_shots": 0.7518, "rating": 6.8694, "minutes": 85.84, "total_pass": 36.8677, "accurate_pass": 28.4957, "duels_won": 4.002, "total_long_balls": 4.3021, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7769, "total_own_half_passes": 17.537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.374, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1217, "crosses_total": 4.6968, "crosses_accurate": 0.9493, "touches": 53.5716, "possession_lost": 14.7792, "dispossessed": 0.5798, "duels_lost": 3.7673, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0453, "interceptions": 0.7732, "tackles_won": 1.2277, "tackles": 1.7592, "clearances": 0.9315, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7192, "challenges_lost": 0.7643, "fouls": 0.9721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0808, "blocks": 0.3528, "big_chances_created": 0.3716, "big_chances_missed": 0.0383, "xgot": 0.0969, "ball_carries": 13.6785, "total_progression": 61.2352, "progressive_carries": 1.3927, "shots_off_target": 0.5131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6782, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0831, "creation_factor": 0.8843, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 320, "fifa_rank": 203.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1757, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2387, "total_shots": 0.7518, "rating": 6.8694, "minutes": 85.84, "total_pass": 36.8677, "accurate_pass": 28.4957, "duels_won": 4.002, "total_long_balls": 4.3021, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7769, "total_own_half_passes": 17.537, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.374, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.3307, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.1217, "crosses_total": 4.6968, "crosses_accurate": 0.9493, "touches": 53.5716, "possession_lost": 14.7792, "dispossessed": 0.5798, "duels_lost": 3.7673, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.0453, "interceptions": 0.7732, "tackles_won": 1.2277, "tackles": 1.7592, "clearances": 0.9315, "total_contest": 1.1406, "won_contest": 0.7192, "challenges_lost": 0.7643, "fouls": 0.9721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0808, "blocks": 0.3528, "big_chances_created": 0.3716, "big_chances_missed": 0.0383, "xgot": 0.0969, "ball_carries": 13.6785, "total_progression": 61.2352, "progressive_carries": 1.3927, "shots_off_target": 0.5131, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.6782, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0831, "creation_factor": 0.8843, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "scorer_weight": 0.0731, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.0553, "finishing_factor": 1.0831, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.4325, "expected_assists": 0.1757, "assist_rate": 0.1028, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0675, "goal_rate": 0.0647, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2387, "total_shots": 0.7518, "rating": 6.8694, "minutes": 85.84, "total_pass": 36.8677, "accurate_pass": 28.4957, "duels_won": 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"name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0087 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0268, "total": 6.7545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010892 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010303 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.010153 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008742 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.008507 } ], "others_margin": -0.026962 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9992, quality 0.479)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0953, "tackles": 2.4778, "tackles_won": 1.4983, "clearances": 2.7818, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "total_shots": 0.4075, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goals": 0.0015, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "assists": 0.0154, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.159, "big_chances_created": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 13.3031, "total_progression": 49.0909, "progressive_carries": 0.7423, "key_pass": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.2485 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6400000, "quality_factor": 0.4793, "boost_factor": 0.9992, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0953, "tackles": 2.4778, "tackles_won": 1.4983, "clearances": 2.7818, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "total_shots": 0.4075, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goals": 0.0015, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "assists": 0.0154, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.159, "big_chances_created": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 13.3031, "total_progression": 49.0909, "progressive_carries": 0.7423, "key_pass": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.2485 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0953, "tackles": 2.4778, "tackles_won": 1.4983, "clearances": 2.7818, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "total_shots": 0.4075, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goals": 0.0015, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "assists": 0.0154, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.159, "big_chances_created": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 13.3031, "total_progression": 49.0909, "progressive_carries": 0.7423, "key_pass": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.2485, "opponent_faced": "Kang-in Lee", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Kang-in Lee", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0953, "tackles": 2.4778, "tackles_won": 1.4983, "clearances": 2.7818, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "total_shots": 0.4075, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0078, "expected_assists": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.159, "big_chances_created": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0075, "ball_carries": 13.3031, "total_progression": 49.0909, "progressive_carries": 0.7423, "key_pass": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.2485, "opponent_faced": "Kang-in Lee", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0953, "tackles": 2.4778, "tackles_won": 1.4983, "clearances": 2.7818, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "total_shots": 0.4075, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.0716, "shots_on_target": 0.159, "big_chances_created": 0.0482, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 13.3031, "total_progression": 49.0909, "progressive_carries": 0.7423, "key_pass": 0.4955, "shots_off_target": 0.2485, "opponent_faced": "Kang-in Lee", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.891, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0501, "after": 0.0716 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0953, "tackles": 2.4778, "tackles_won": 1.4983, "clearances": 2.7818, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "total_shots": 0.4075, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 0.0716, 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projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0953, "tackles": 2.4778, "tackles_won": 1.4983, "clearances": 2.7818, "aerial_won": 0.7065, "total_shots": 0.4075, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 84.28, "total_pass": 34.462, "accurate_pass": 29.1975, "duels_won": 4.9487, "total_long_balls": 4.632, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7908, "total_own_half_passes": 19.3337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4145, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.1283, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7832, "crosses_total": 1.2354, "crosses_accurate": 0.3423, "touches": 56.8899, "possession_lost": 9.6104, "dispossessed": 0.627, "duels_lost": 4.5771, "aerial_lost": 1.0245, "total_contest": 1.1828, "won_contest": 0.6402, "ball_recovery": 3.2613, "challenges_lost": 1.5368, "fouls": 0.8575, "fouls_drawn": 0.7976, "blocks": 0.7323, "goal_rate": 0.0015, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0154, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0094, "expected_assists": 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"runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "player_id": 122810, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 186, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 34, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0091, 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}, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0468 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0584, "total": 0.348, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.102475 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046847 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01642 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.008441 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.008383 } ], "others_margin": -0.058385 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.793006896972656, "model_output": 6.793, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9171, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6335, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4473, "fouls_drawn": 0.8556, "blocks": 0.3715, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1100000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9922, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0500)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3439, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.05, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9642, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6335, "after": 0.6822 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4473, "after": 0.4249 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8556, "after": 0.845 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0031, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9416, "creation_factor": 0.8865 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9416, "creation_factor": 0.8865, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1409, "fifa_rank": 949.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0037, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9416, "creation_factor": 0.8865, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0037, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0035, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.0026, "finishing_factor": 0.9416, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9195, "tackles": 1.0864, "tackles_won": 0.6822, "clearances": 4.8804, "aerial_won": 1.5162, "total_shots": 0.3453, "rating": 6.793, "minutes": 86.78, "total_pass": 44.9547, "accurate_pass": 42.3034, "duels_won": 2.79, "total_long_balls": 4.6226, "accurate_long_balls": 3.1563, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4897, "accurate_own_half_passes": 33.0589, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.2446, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.0695, "possession_lost": 2.799, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.3456, "aerial_lost": 0.8982, "total_contest": 0.1564, "won_contest": 0.1564, "ball_recovery": 2.5525, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4249, "fouls_drawn": 0.845, "blocks": 0.3715, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0037, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1256, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17.3704, "total_progression": 40.4533, "progressive_carries": 0.0656, "key_pass": 0.2512, "shots_off_target": 0.3453, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0037, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0091, "finishing_factor": 0.9416, "creation_factor": 0.8865, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0091, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0081, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0101, "creation_factor": 0.8865, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ifeanyi Ndukwe": { "player_id": 1929673, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 198, 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"totalShots", "contribution": -0.1116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0498 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": -0.0297, "total": 0.3706, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.111605 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049767 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01643 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008546 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.008532 } ], "others_margin": -0.029637 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.780490875244141, "model_output": 6.7805, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0097 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": 0.0217, "total": 6.7805, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017157 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.012084 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.009666 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008779 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.008267 } ], "others_margin": 0.021599 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9911, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7715, "tackles": 1.2637, "tackles_won": 0.711, "clearances": 5.3562, "aerial_won": 1.7444, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7805, "minutes": 83.5, "total_pass": 44.1683, "accurate_pass": 39.8302, "duels_won": 2.2105, "total_long_balls": 2.8533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3602, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6663, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1639, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.8619, "possession_lost": 4.5628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6351, "aerial_lost": 0.764, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.6256, "challenges_lost": 0.4157, "fouls": 0.4554, "fouls_drawn": 0.6801, "blocks": 0.9574, "goals": 0.191, "goal_rate": 0.191, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0815, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.175, "ball_carries": 16.3171, "total_progression": 84.8032, "progressive_carries": 1.5281, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1763 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9911, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7715, "tackles": 1.2637, "tackles_won": 0.711, "clearances": 5.3562, "aerial_won": 1.7444, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7805, "minutes": 83.5, "total_pass": 44.1683, "accurate_pass": 39.8302, "duels_won": 2.2105, "total_long_balls": 2.8533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3602, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6663, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1639, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.8619, "possession_lost": 4.5628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6351, "aerial_lost": 0.764, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.6256, "challenges_lost": 0.4157, "fouls": 0.4554, "fouls_drawn": 0.6801, "blocks": 0.9574, "goals": 0.191, "goal_rate": 0.191, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0815, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.175, "ball_carries": 16.3171, "total_progression": 84.8032, "progressive_carries": 1.5281, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1763 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7715, "tackles": 1.2637, "tackles_won": 0.711, "clearances": 5.3562, "aerial_won": 1.7444, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7805, "minutes": 83.5, "total_pass": 44.1683, "accurate_pass": 39.8302, "duels_won": 2.2105, "total_long_balls": 2.8533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3602, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6663, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1639, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.8619, "possession_lost": 4.5628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6351, "aerial_lost": 0.764, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.6256, "challenges_lost": 0.4157, "fouls": 0.4554, "fouls_drawn": 0.6801, "blocks": 0.9574, "goals": 0.191, "goal_rate": 0.191, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0815, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.175, "ball_carries": 16.3171, "total_progression": 84.8032, "progressive_carries": 1.5281, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1763, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7715, "tackles": 1.2637, "tackles_won": 0.711, "clearances": 5.3562, "aerial_won": 1.7444, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7805, "minutes": 83.5, "total_pass": 44.1683, "accurate_pass": 39.8302, "duels_won": 2.2105, "total_long_balls": 2.8533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3602, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6663, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1639, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.8619, "possession_lost": 4.5628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6351, "aerial_lost": 0.764, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.6256, "challenges_lost": 0.4157, "fouls": 0.4554, "fouls_drawn": 0.6801, "blocks": 0.9574, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0815, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.175, "ball_carries": 16.3171, "total_progression": 84.8032, "progressive_carries": 1.5281, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1763, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7715, "tackles": 1.2637, "tackles_won": 0.711, "clearances": 5.3562, "aerial_won": 1.7444, "total_shots": 0.3673, "rating": 6.7805, "minutes": 83.5, "total_pass": 44.1683, "accurate_pass": 39.8302, "duels_won": 2.2105, "total_long_balls": 2.8533, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3602, "total_own_half_passes": 32.4552, "accurate_own_half_passes": 30.6663, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7131, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1639, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.8619, "possession_lost": 4.5628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6351, "aerial_lost": 0.764, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 3.6256, "challenges_lost": 0.4157, "fouls": 0.4554, "fouls_drawn": 0.6801, "blocks": 0.9574, "goal_rate": 0.191, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0984, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.191, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.2112, "ball_carries": 16.3171, "total_progression": 84.8032, "progressive_carries": 1.5281, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1763, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9381 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0815, "after": 0.0984 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0937, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.9381, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0047, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0044, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0055, "creation_factor": 0.9381, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Nacho Pérez": { "player_id": 2049311, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 175, 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"role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9940, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6936, "tackles": 1.5645, "tackles_won": 0.9273, "clearances": 3.3718, "aerial_won": 0.9619, "total_shots": 0.5184, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 74.45, "total_pass": 24.7965, "accurate_pass": 19.0647, "duels_won": 4.2532, "total_long_balls": 3.4123, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1806, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8235, "crosses_total": 1.4482, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6664, "fouls_drawn": 1.2197, "blocks": 0.4142, "goals": 0.378, "goal_rate": 0.378, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.378, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1474, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.994, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 12, "history_shrink": 0.2941, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0280)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7163, "tackles": 1.5645, "tackles_won": 0.954, "clearances": 3.3718, "aerial_won": 0.9619, "total_shots": 0.5039, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 74.45, "total_pass": 24.7965, "accurate_pass": 19.0647, "duels_won": 4.2532, "total_long_balls": 3.4123, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1806, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8235, "crosses_total": 1.4919, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 1.2171, "blocks": 0.4142, "goals": 0.3674, "goal_rate": 0.3674, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1474, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.028, "history_matches": 12, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8272, "prior_reliability": 0.1467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.4482, "after": 1.4919 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43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 1.2171, "blocks": 0.4142, "goals": 0.3674, "goal_rate": 0.3674, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1474, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7163, "tackles": 1.5645, "tackles_won": 0.954, "clearances": 3.3718, "aerial_won": 0.9619, "total_shots": 0.5078, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 74.45, "total_pass": 24.7965, "accurate_pass": 19.0647, "duels_won": 4.2532, "total_long_balls": 3.4123, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1806, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8235, "crosses_total": 1.4919, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 1.2171, "blocks": 0.4142, "goals": 0.3674, "goal_rate": 0.3674, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1474, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7163, "tackles": 1.5645, "tackles_won": 0.954, "clearances": 3.3718, "aerial_won": 0.9619, "total_shots": 0.5078, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 74.45, "total_pass": 24.7965, "accurate_pass": 19.0647, "duels_won": 4.2532, "total_long_balls": 3.4123, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1806, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8235, "crosses_total": 1.4919, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 1.2171, "blocks": 0.4142, "goal_rate": 0.3674, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.058, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1474, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7163, "tackles": 1.5645, "tackles_won": 0.954, "clearances": 3.3718, "aerial_won": 0.9619, "total_shots": 0.5078, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 74.45, "total_pass": 24.7965, "accurate_pass": 19.0647, "duels_won": 4.2532, "total_long_balls": 3.4123, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1806, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8235, "crosses_total": 1.4919, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 1.2171, "blocks": 0.4142, "goal_rate": 0.3674, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.07, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1779, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.058, "after": 0.07 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0389 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7163, "tackles": 1.5645, "tackles_won": 0.954, "clearances": 3.3718, "aerial_won": 0.9619, "total_shots": 0.5078, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 74.45, "total_pass": 24.7965, "accurate_pass": 19.0647, "duels_won": 4.2532, "total_long_balls": 3.4123, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1806, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8235, "crosses_total": 1.4919, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 1.2171, "blocks": 0.4142, "goal_rate": 0.3674, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.07, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1779, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6444, "fifa_rank": 9400.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7163, "tackles": 1.5645, "tackles_won": 0.954, "clearances": 3.3718, "aerial_won": 0.9619, "total_shots": 0.5078, "rating": 6.7601, "minutes": 74.45, "total_pass": 24.7965, "accurate_pass": 19.0647, "duels_won": 4.2532, "total_long_balls": 3.4123, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1806, "total_own_half_passes": 14.1936, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.2412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.6029, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8235, "crosses_total": 1.4919, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 43.0253, "possession_lost": 9.6033, "dispossessed": 0.0828, "duels_lost": 2.2082, "aerial_lost": 0.8119, "total_contest": 0.7726, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 1.2671, "challenges_lost": 0.2195, "fouls": 0.6583, "fouls_drawn": 1.2171, "blocks": 0.4142, "goal_rate": 0.3674, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.07, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "shots_on_target": 0.3674, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1779, "ball_carries": 6.4775, "total_progression": 28.0371, "progressive_carries": 0.7228, "key_pass": 0.2775, "shots_off_target": 0.1404, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452, "opponent_faced": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0676, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0676, "goal_rate": 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"name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.018512 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.013436 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.010167 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.009212 } ], "others_margin": 0.011776 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.99044942855835, "model_output": 6.9904, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 6.9904, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.021634 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018421 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.014024 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011706 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.011118 } ], "others_margin": -0.010094 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.897, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0592, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9783 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0127)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9166, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0625, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9783 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0127, "history_matches": 46, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9503, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.897, "after": 2.9166 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9166, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0625, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9783 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9166, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0625, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.653, "shots_faced": 25.2, "expected_saves": 6.17, "high_pressure_saves": 2.12, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez, Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez, Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 2.653 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9166, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0625, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.653, "shots_faced": 25.2, "expected_saves": 6.17, "high_pressure_saves": 2.12, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez, Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9166, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0625, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.653, "shots_faced": 21.5, "expected_saves": 5.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.81, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez, Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 25.2, "after": 21.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 6.17, "after": 5.26 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 2.12, "after": 1.81 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9166, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0625, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4711, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.9783, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.653, "shots_faced": 21.5, "expected_saves": 5.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.81, "opponent_faced": "Julián Alvarez, Alejandro Grimaldo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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"scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9166, "goals_prevented": -0.0581, "rating": 6.9904, "minutes": 85.53, "total_pass": 33.7427, "accurate_pass": 24.2456, "total_long_balls": 15.3133, "accurate_long_balls": 5.9045, "touches": 45.2513, "clearances": 0.9977, "ball_recovery": 8.7118, "high_claims": 1.6776, "punches": 0.3818, "aerial_won": 0.3308, "sweeper_actions": 0.808, "sweeper_accurate": 0.808, "saves_inside_box": 1.3871, "possession_lost": 9.6085, "duels_won": 0.4322, "duels_lost": 0.136, 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"effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Daniel Requena": { "player_id": 1521658, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 186, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0707, "goal_rate": 0.0576, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 80, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 6.8904, "dispossessed": 0.6223, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0699, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.737, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Morten Hjulmand", "opponent_faced": "Morten Hjulmand", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0683, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0484, "finishing_factor": 0.9908, "creation_factor": 1.1783, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421086, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9916, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5059, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "assists": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "expected_goals": 0.0795, "goals": 0.0782, "goal_rate": 0.0782, "shots_on_target": 0.2947, "total_shots": 0.9408, "rating": 6.7388, "minutes": 80.08, "total_pass": 21.8466, "accurate_pass": 18.3345, "duels_won": 5.3555, "total_long_balls": 0.4556, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4556, "total_own_half_passes": 12.1985, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1672, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1673, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 35.8172, "possession_lost": 6.8904, "dispossessed": 0.6223, "duels_lost": 6.6559, "aerial_won": 0.4894, "aerial_lost": 0.9846, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 1.9495, "tackles": 3.7699, "clearances": 1.594, 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0683 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0433 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0328 } ], "others": -0.045, "total": 0.6614, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.256706 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080094 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.054243 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.048718 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045373 } ], "others_margin": -0.065905 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.755120754241943, "model_output": 6.7551, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 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XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9969, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3279, "goals": 0.3629, "goal_rate": 0.3629, "shots_on_target": 0.9295, "total_shots": 2.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assists": 0.1267, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.2043, "xgot": 0.3961, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 1.158 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2800000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9969, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3279, "goals": 0.3629, "goal_rate": 0.3629, "shots_on_target": 0.9295, "total_shots": 2.0875, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assists": 0.1267, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.2043, "xgot": 0.3961, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 1.158 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2397, "goals": 0.2653, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "shots_on_target": 0.6795, "total_shots": 1.526, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assists": 0.1267, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1493, "xgot": 0.2895, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.731, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Oblak", "opponent_faced": "Jan Oblak", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jan Oblak", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.731, "skill_edge": -0.123, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.7107, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Jan Oblak", "market_value": 16000000, "role": "GK", "price_index": 0.55, "adjusted_quality": 0.7107 } ], "xg_override": 0.2397 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0875, "after": 1.526 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.158, "after": 0.8465 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9295, "after": 0.6795 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3961, "after": 0.2895 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3629, "after": 0.2653 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3279, "after": 0.2397 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2043, "after": 0.1493 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2397, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6795, "total_shots": 1.526, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1493, "xgot": 0.2895, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.731, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Oblak", "opponent_faced": "Jan Oblak", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2894, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6795, "total_shots": 1.526, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1493, "xgot": 0.3495, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.731, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Oblak", "opponent_faced": "Jan Oblak", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0884, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2397, "after": 0.2894 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0492, "after": 0.0703 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2894, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6795, "total_shots": 1.526, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1493, "xgot": 0.3495, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.731, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Oblak", "opponent_faced": "Jan Oblak", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0884, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 229, "fifa_rank": 28.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 88.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2894, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6795, "total_shots": 1.526, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1493, "xgot": 0.3495, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.731, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Oblak", "opponent_faced": "Jan Oblak", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2513, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0884, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2513, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "scorer_weight": 0.315, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.2381, "finishing_factor": 1.0884, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2894, "goal_rate": 0.2653, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6795, "total_shots": 1.526, "expected_assists": 0.0703, "key_pass": 0.6593, "rating": 6.7551, "minutes": 72.53, "total_pass": 14.6457, "accurate_pass": 11.8047, "duels_won": 2.7842, "total_long_balls": 0.8868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.595, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.3306, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0211, "crosses_total": 1.6394, "crosses_accurate": 0.0411, "touches": 26.2502, "possession_lost": 7.2492, "dispossessed": 0.4608, "duels_lost": 4.2955, "aerial_lost": 1.8949, "total_contest": 0.9269, "won_contest": 0.3238, "ball_recovery": 1.9479, "challenges_lost": 0.6108, "fouls": 0.7955, "fouls_drawn": 0.7762, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.239, "tackles_won": 0.5188, "tackles": 0.9305, "clearances": 0.9704, "blocks": 0.1007, "big_chances_created": 0.0187, "big_chances_missed": 0.1493, "xgot": 0.3495, "offsides": 0.1023, "ball_carries": 8.5332, "total_progression": 6.5916, "progressive_carries": 0.7573, "shots_off_target": 0.8465, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.731, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Oblak", "opponent_faced": "Jan Oblak", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2513, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0679, "finishing_factor": 1.0884, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 88.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.1267, "provider_weight": 0.0879, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.1101, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Iván Romero": { "player_id": 1014042, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 172, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2342, "goal_rate": 0.216, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.079, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0034, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2154, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.682, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9996, quality 0.491)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2844, "goals": 0.3204, "goal_rate": 0.3204, "shots_on_target": 0.7547, "total_shots": 1.888, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.7429, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70.07, "total_pass": 16.8456, "accurate_pass": 12.6617, "duels_won": 5.164, "total_long_balls": 1.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0632, "crosses_total": 0.2689, "crosses_accurate": 0.021, "touches": 32.0019, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 5.5331, "aerial_lost": 1.3554, "total_contest": 2.0069, "won_contest": 0.8206, "ball_recovery": 2.6584, "challenges_lost": 0.4775, "fouls": 1.282, "fouls_drawn": 2.035, "assists": 0.0034, "assist_rate": 0.0034, "interceptions": 0.4541, 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}, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4541, "after": 0.4489 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2844, "goals": 0.3167, "goal_rate": 0.3167, "shots_on_target": 0.7533, "total_shots": 1.8988, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.7429, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70.07, "total_pass": 16.8456, "accurate_pass": 12.6617, "duels_won": 5.164, "total_long_balls": 1.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0632, "crosses_total": 0.2694, "crosses_accurate": 0.021, "touches": 32.0019, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 5.5331, "aerial_lost": 1.3554, "total_contest": 2.0069, "won_contest": 0.8206, "ball_recovery": 2.6584, "challenges_lost": 0.4775, "fouls": 1.278, "fouls_drawn": 2.0259, "assists": 0.0034, "assist_rate": 0.0034, "interceptions": 0.4489, "tackles_won": 0.7858, "tackles": 1.2877, "clearances": 0.3146, "blocks": 0.0035, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.2904, "xgot": 0.2616, "offsides": 0.0786, "ball_carries": 9.2511, "total_progression": 15.7547, "progressive_carries": 1.1582, "shots_off_target": 1.1332 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.194, "goals": 0.216, "goal_rate": 0.216, "shots_on_target": 0.5138, "total_shots": 1.295, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.7429, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70.07, "total_pass": 16.8456, "accurate_pass": 12.6617, "duels_won": 5.164, "total_long_balls": 1.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0632, "crosses_total": 0.2694, "crosses_accurate": 0.021, "touches": 32.0019, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 5.5331, "aerial_lost": 1.3554, "total_contest": 2.0069, "won_contest": 0.8206, "ball_recovery": 2.6584, "challenges_lost": 0.4775, "fouls": 1.278, "fouls_drawn": 2.0259, "assists": 0.0034, "assist_rate": 0.0034, "interceptions": 0.4489, "tackles_won": 0.7858, "tackles": 1.2877, "clearances": 0.3146, "blocks": 0.0035, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.1981, "xgot": 0.1784, "offsides": 0.0786, "ball_carries": 9.2511, "total_progression": 15.7547, "progressive_carries": 1.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.7728, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.682, "skill_edge": -0.1563, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4915, "defender_skill": 0.8388, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "market_value": 36000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8168 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "market_value": 48000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8608 } ], "xg_override": 0.194 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8988, "after": 1.295 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1332, "after": 0.7728 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7533, "after": 0.5138 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3167, "after": 0.216 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.2904, "after": 0.1981 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2844, "after": 0.194 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2616, "after": 0.1784 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.194, "goal_rate": 0.216, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5138, "total_shots": 1.295, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "key_pass": 0.7429, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70.07, "total_pass": 16.8456, "accurate_pass": 12.6617, "duels_won": 5.164, "total_long_balls": 1.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0632, "crosses_total": 0.2694, "crosses_accurate": 0.021, "touches": 32.0019, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 5.5331, "aerial_lost": 1.3554, "total_contest": 2.0069, "won_contest": 0.8206, "ball_recovery": 2.6584, "challenges_lost": 0.4775, "fouls": 1.278, "fouls_drawn": 2.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0034, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4489, "tackles_won": 0.7858, "tackles": 1.2877, "clearances": 0.3146, "blocks": 0.0035, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.1981, "xgot": 0.1784, "offsides": 0.0786, "ball_carries": 9.2511, "total_progression": 15.7547, "progressive_carries": 1.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.7728, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2342, "goal_rate": 0.216, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5138, "total_shots": 1.295, "expected_assists": 0.079, "key_pass": 0.7429, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70.07, "total_pass": 16.8456, "accurate_pass": 12.6617, "duels_won": 5.164, "total_long_balls": 1.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0632, "crosses_total": 0.2694, "crosses_accurate": 0.021, "touches": 32.0019, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 5.5331, "aerial_lost": 1.3554, "total_contest": 2.0069, "won_contest": 0.8206, "ball_recovery": 2.6584, "challenges_lost": 0.4775, "fouls": 1.278, "fouls_drawn": 2.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0034, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4489, "tackles_won": 0.7858, "tackles": 1.2877, "clearances": 0.3146, "blocks": 0.0035, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.1981, "xgot": 0.2154, "offsides": 0.0786, "ball_carries": 9.2511, "total_progression": 15.7547, "progressive_carries": 1.1582, "shots_off_target": 0.7728, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.682, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "opponent_faced": "Dávid Hancko, Marc Pubill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0902, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.194, "after": 0.2342 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0553, "after": 0.079 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2342, "goal_rate": 0.216, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5138, "total_shots": 1.295, "expected_assists": 0.079, "key_pass": 0.7429, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70.07, "total_pass": 16.8456, "accurate_pass": 12.6617, "duels_won": 5.164, "total_long_balls": 1.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0632, "crosses_total": 0.2694, "crosses_accurate": 0.021, "touches": 32.0019, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 5.5331, "aerial_lost": 1.3554, "total_contest": 2.0069, "won_contest": 0.8206, "ball_recovery": 2.6584, "challenges_lost": 0.4775, "fouls": 1.278, "fouls_drawn": 2.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0034, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4489, "tackles_won": 0.7858, "tackles": 1.2877, "clearances": 0.3146, "blocks": 0.0035, "big_chances_created": 0.1134, "big_chances_missed": 0.1981, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2342, "goal_rate": 0.216, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5138, "total_shots": 1.295, "expected_assists": 0.079, "key_pass": 0.7429, "rating": 6.7536, "minutes": 70.07, "total_pass": 16.8456, "accurate_pass": 12.6617, "duels_won": 5.164, "total_long_balls": 1.0351, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8412, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0341, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0632, "crosses_total": 0.2694, "crosses_accurate": 0.021, "touches": 32.0019, "possession_lost": 10.3732, "dispossessed": 1.5634, "duels_lost": 5.5331, "aerial_lost": 1.3554, "total_contest": 2.0069, "won_contest": 0.8206, "ball_recovery": 2.6584, "challenges_lost": 0.4775, "fouls": 1.278, "fouls_drawn": 2.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0034, 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"D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 195, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 5.6335, "dispossessed": 0.2883, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0231, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 95, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, 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"contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0327, "total": 0.2324, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.209999 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.046337 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.034859 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.02416 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016159 } ], "others_margin": -0.03263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.725778102874756, "model_output": 6.7258, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9985, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4409, "tackles": 0.5209, "tackles_won": 0.2804, "clearances": 2.3326, "aerial_won": 0.7961, "total_shots": 0.2321, "rating": 6.7258, "minutes": 17.0, "total_pass": 43.6328, "accurate_pass": 38.0118, "duels_won": 3.7172, "total_long_balls": 4.7791, "accurate_long_balls": 2.3235, "total_own_half_passes": 27.6221, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.139, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0106, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8728, "crosses_total": 0.1903, "crosses_accurate": 0.093, "touches": 55.8973, "possession_lost": 6.9858, "dispossessed": 0.2883, "duels_lost": 2.7534, "aerial_lost": 1.3482, "total_contest": 0.239, "won_contest": 0.1303, "ball_recovery": 3.1762, "challenges_lost": 0.3026, "fouls": 0.7653, "fouls_drawn": 0.8767, "blocks": 0.4962, "goals": 0.0, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0022 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0019 } ], "others": -0.0062, "total": 0.0488, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.354031, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.563571 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.124266 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.06198 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.042125 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035313 } ], "others_margin": -0.117673 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.21499097347259521, "model_output": 0.215, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3183, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1428 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0046 } ], "others": 0.0177, "total": 0.215, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.595108 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.085585 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.040653 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.032607 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.023428 } ], "others_margin": 0.085661 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6747485995292664, "model_output": 0.6747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4642 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0606 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0223 } ], "others": 0.0783, "total": 0.6747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464235 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.060595 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.030119 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.02372 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.022327 } ], "others_margin": 0.078351 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.695156574249268, "model_output": 6.6952, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0945 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0328 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0069, "total": 6.6952, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.094493 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.0328 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024783 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010128 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009081 } ], "others_margin": -0.006917 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 31, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0033, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7217, "expected_assists": 0.052, "assists": 0.0832, "assist_rate": 0.0832, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.2157, "total_shots": 0.677, "rating": 6.6952, "minutes": 21.08, "total_pass": 8.4201, "accurate_pass": 6.7229, "duels_won": 1.3996, "total_long_balls": 0.7296, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5081, "total_own_half_passes": 1.0719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6365, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0863, "crosses_total": 1.6886, "crosses_accurate": 0.2961, "touches": 16.2224, "possession_lost": 5.708, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.4851, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2139, "tackles": 0.3122, "clearances": 0.16, 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"total_own_half_passes": 1.0719, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6365, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.0863, "crosses_total": 1.6835, "crosses_accurate": 0.2961, "touches": 16.2224, "possession_lost": 5.708, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.4851, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2133, "tackles": 0.3122, "clearances": 0.16, "total_contest": 0.8932, "won_contest": 0.16, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.287, "fouls_drawn": 0.9274, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0023, "ball_carries": 6.2814, "total_progression": 18.0602, "progressive_carries": 0.8758, "shots_off_target": 0.4613 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.003, "history_matches": 31, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2342, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Levante" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.6886, "after": 1.6835 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.1 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7722, "expected_assists": 0.0556, "assists": 0.0887, "assist_rate": 0.0887, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "shots_on_target": 0.2302, "total_shots": 0.7238, "rating": 6.6952, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 6.7209, "total_progression": 19.3239, "progressive_carries": 0.9371, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.319, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.56, "projection_minutes": 21.08, "minutes_scale": 1.07, "appearance_probability": 0.319 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7722, "expected_assists": 0.0556, "assists": 0.0887, "assist_rate": 0.0887, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "shots_on_target": 0.2302, "total_shots": 0.7238, "rating": 6.6952, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, 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0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2302, "total_shots": 0.7238, "rating": 6.6952, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 6.7209, "total_progression": 19.3239, "progressive_carries": 0.9371, "shots_off_target": 0.4936, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.319, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.319, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7722, "expected_assists": 0.0556, "assist_rate": 0.0887, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2302, "total_shots": 0.7238, "rating": 6.6952, "minutes": 22.56, "total_pass": 9.0093, "accurate_pass": 7.1933, "duels_won": 1.4975, "total_long_balls": 0.7807, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5437, "total_own_half_passes": 1.1469, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.681, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8624, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5122, "crosses_total": 1.8013, "crosses_accurate": 0.3168, "touches": 17.3575, "possession_lost": 6.1074, "dispossessed": 0.1883, "duels_lost": 2.659, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.8896, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2282, "tackles": 0.334, "clearances": 0.1712, "total_contest": 0.9557, "won_contest": 0.1712, "challenges_lost": 0.3875, "fouls": 0.3071, "fouls_drawn": 0.9923, "blocks": 0.0, 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996974, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 172, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 6, 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"margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.381184 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.213468 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044455 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015422 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.014815 } ], "others_margin": -0.039414 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657797813415527, "model_output": 6.6578, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0685 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.6578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068481 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034702 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02822 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018067 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010062 } ], "others_margin": -0.037865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4977, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assists": 0.0675, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3345, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 28.22, "total_pass": 18.2906, "accurate_pass": 14.5838, "duels_won": 1.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.4762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3786, "total_own_half_passes": 7.8095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.0241, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4811, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5597, "crosses_total": 1.9789, "crosses_accurate": 0.5062, "touches": 26.8266, "possession_lost": 7.0655, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.7838, "tackles_won": 0.6413, "tackles": 0.9631, "clearances": 0.2199, "total_contest": 0.4808, "won_contest": 0.3458, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.6801, "fouls_drawn": 0.4617, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 7.051, "total_progression": 22.5527, "progressive_carries": 0.5944, "shots_off_target": 0.1793 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.2 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.11, "projection_minutes": 28.22, "minutes_scale": 0.7835, "appearance_probability": 0.505 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.505 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0267, "after": 0.0163 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0371, "after": 0.0268 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4002, "fifa_rank": 3520.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "scorer_weight": 0.0169, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "provider_weight": 0.0317, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0397, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Etta Eyong": { "player_id": 1393673, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 15600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.488512 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.102045 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.081067 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.052441 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.043143 } ], "others_margin": -0.165008 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.606225967407227, "model_output": 6.6062, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0598 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0633, "total": 6.6062, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059814 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.025974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015453 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.01208 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.01207 } ], "others_margin": -0.063389 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1483, "goal_rate": 0.1483, "shots_on_target": 0.3388, "total_shots": 0.778, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.2711, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 18.75, "total_pass": 3.3427, "accurate_pass": 1.8829, "duels_won": 1.7219, "total_long_balls": 0.0941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0751, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4529, "crosses_total": 0.2955, "crosses_accurate": 0.113, "touches": 8.4601, "possession_lost": 3.4775, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 2.6599, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0674, "ball_recovery": 0.5101, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.8911, "fouls_drawn": 0.7064, "assists": 0.1292, "assist_rate": 0.1292, "interceptions": 0.1017, "tackles_won": 0.0071, "tackles": 0.1441, "clearances": 0.0494, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.3164, "xgot": 0.2579, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.431, "total_progression": 3.2391, "progressive_carries": 0.019, "shots_off_target": 0.4391 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.2047, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assists": 0.1783, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.356, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 18.75, "minutes_scale": 1.3802, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.2047, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assists": 0.1783, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.356, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.188, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.356, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.188, "after": 0.1328 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0363, "after": 0.0304 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "scorer_weight": 0.1421, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.1074, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "provider_weight": 0.038, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0476, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"margin": -0.053079 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031857 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014336 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011205 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.008887 } ], "others_margin": -0.052031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0722, "goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0649, "shots_on_target": 0.2613, "total_shots": 0.6444, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.1886, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 21.72, "total_pass": 8.4883, "accurate_pass": 5.7897, "duels_won": 1.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8263, "crosses_total": 0.2695, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.14, "possession_lost": 6.7633, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 4.6023, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.4987, "won_contest": 0.2292, "ball_recovery": 1.1157, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.2695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4103, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4583, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0788, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1408, "shots_off_target": 0.3831 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 21.72, "minutes_scale": 1.1765, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0849, "after": 0.0585 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0556, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0556, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "scorer_weight": 0.0548, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.0414, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0556, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0141, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0141, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0114, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0143, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Etta Eyong": { "player_id": 1393673, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 15600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421086, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2375, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 17122851, "match_date": "2026-10-21", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": 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"ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.052441 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.043143 } ], "others_margin": -0.165008 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.606225967407227, "model_output": 6.6062, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0598 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0155 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0633, "total": 6.6062, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.059814 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.025974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015453 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.01208 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.01207 } ], "others_margin": -0.063389 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.586)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1362, "goals": 0.1483, "goal_rate": 0.1483, "shots_on_target": 0.3388, "total_shots": 0.778, "expected_assists": 0.0263, "key_pass": 0.2711, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 18.75, "total_pass": 3.3427, "accurate_pass": 1.8829, "duels_won": 1.7219, "total_long_balls": 0.0941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0751, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5788, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.4529, "crosses_total": 0.2955, "crosses_accurate": 0.113, "touches": 8.4601, "possession_lost": 3.4775, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 2.6599, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0674, "ball_recovery": 0.5101, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 0.8911, "fouls_drawn": 0.7064, "assists": 0.1292, "assist_rate": 0.1292, "interceptions": 0.1017, "tackles_won": 0.0071, "tackles": 0.1441, "clearances": 0.0494, "blocks": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.1303, "big_chances_missed": 0.3164, "xgot": 0.2579, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.431, "total_progression": 3.2391, "progressive_carries": 0.019, "shots_off_target": 0.4391 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15600000, "quality_factor": 0.5857, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.2047, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assists": 0.1783, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.356, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.88, "projection_minutes": 18.75, "minutes_scale": 1.3802, "appearance_probability": 0.585 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.2047, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assists": 0.1783, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.356, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.188, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0363, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.356, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.585 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.188, "after": 0.1328 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0363, "after": 0.0304 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3474, "fifa_rank": 2418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "scorer_weight": 0.1421, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.1074, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.2047, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4676, "total_shots": 1.0738, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "key_pass": 0.3742, "rating": 6.6062, "minutes": 25.88, "total_pass": 4.6137, "accurate_pass": 2.5988, "duels_won": 2.3766, "total_long_balls": 0.1299, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1037, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.5593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0053, "crosses_total": 0.4079, "crosses_accurate": 0.156, "touches": 11.6769, "possession_lost": 4.7997, "dispossessed": 0.4797, "duels_lost": 3.6713, "aerial_lost": 1.0415, "total_contest": 0.3059, "won_contest": 0.093, "ball_recovery": 0.7041, "challenges_lost": 0.0933, "fouls": 1.2299, "fouls_drawn": 0.975, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0098, "tackles": 0.1989, "clearances": 0.0682, "blocks": 0.0308, "big_chances_created": 0.1798, "big_chances_missed": 0.4367, "xgot": 0.2514, "offsides": 0.0116, "ball_carries": 1.9751, "total_progression": 4.4707, "progressive_carries": 0.0262, "shots_off_target": 0.6061, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.585, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.88, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1188, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "finishing_factor": 1.0702, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.1783, "provider_weight": 0.038, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0476, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.585, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Petar Ratkov": { "player_id": 1101942, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 187, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, 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"margin": -0.053079 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031857 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014336 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011205 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.008887 } ], "others_margin": -0.052031 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9998, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0722, "goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0649, "shots_on_target": 0.2613, "total_shots": 0.6444, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "key_pass": 0.1886, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 21.72, "total_pass": 8.4883, "accurate_pass": 5.7897, "duels_won": 1.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.604, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8263, "crosses_total": 0.2695, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.14, "possession_lost": 6.7633, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 4.6023, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.4987, "won_contest": 0.2292, "ball_recovery": 1.1157, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.2695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6051, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4103, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4583, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.0788, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1408, "shots_off_target": 0.3831 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.7 to 25.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.55, "projection_minutes": 21.72, "minutes_scale": 1.1765, "appearance_probability": 0.571 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goals": 0.0764, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0175, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.571 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0849, "after": 0.0585 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 68.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 5795, "fifa_rank": 7956.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 68.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0556, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0556, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "scorer_weight": 0.0548, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.0414, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0764, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3074, "total_shots": 0.7581, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0.2219, "rating": 6.5994, "minutes": 25.55, "total_pass": 9.9866, "accurate_pass": 6.8116, "duels_won": 2.3205, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4167, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.3252, "crosses_total": 0.3171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 18.9889, "possession_lost": 7.9571, "dispossessed": 1.3448, "duels_lost": 5.4147, "aerial_lost": 2.1132, "total_contest": 0.5867, "won_contest": 0.2697, "ball_recovery": 1.3126, "challenges_lost": 0.6051, "fouls": 0.3171, "fouls_drawn": 0.7119, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4827, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5392, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.4457, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.1657, "shots_off_target": 0.4507, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.571, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.55, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0556, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0141, "finishing_factor": 0.937, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 68.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0141, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0114, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0143, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.571, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] }, "Enzo Bardeli": { "player_id": 996974, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 172, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 21, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421070, "match_date": "2026-10-16", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 47, "rating": 6.4, "expected_goals": 0.1358, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416294, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Villarreal", 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3812 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2135 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0445 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0393, "total": 0.3358, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.381184 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.213468 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044455 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.015422 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.014815 } ], "others_margin": -0.039414 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.657797813415527, "model_output": 6.6578, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0685 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0282 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0181 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0378, "total": 6.6578, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068481 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034702 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.02822 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.018067 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010062 } ], "others_margin": -0.037865 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9959, quality 0.472)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4977, "expected_assists": 0.0474, "assists": 0.0675, "assist_rate": 0.0675, "expected_goals": 0.0341, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.1552, "total_shots": 0.3345, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 28.22, "total_pass": 18.2906, "accurate_pass": 14.5838, "duels_won": 1.7705, "total_long_balls": 0.4762, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3786, "total_own_half_passes": 7.8095, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.0241, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.4811, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5597, "crosses_total": 1.9789, "crosses_accurate": 0.5062, "touches": 26.8266, "possession_lost": 7.0655, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 2.4725, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.7838, "tackles_won": 0.6413, "tackles": 0.9631, "clearances": 0.2199, "total_contest": 0.4808, "won_contest": 0.3458, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.6801, "fouls_drawn": 0.4617, "blocks": 0.1869, "big_chances_created": 0.1252, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 7.051, "total_progression": 22.5527, "progressive_carries": 0.5944, "shots_off_target": 0.1793 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 5800000, "quality_factor": 0.472, "boost_factor": 0.9959, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.2 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.50)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.11, "projection_minutes": 28.22, "minutes_scale": 0.7835, "appearance_probability": 0.505 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assists": 0.0529, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0371, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0045, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.19 (squad xG sum 0.9866, xG scale 1.2071, xA scale 1.4295, team xA 0.77 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.191, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9866, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5416, "team_expected_assists": 0.7742, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.2071, "xa_scale": 1.4295, "opponent_lambda": 2.266, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.505 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0267, "after": 0.0163 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0371, "after": 0.0268 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4002, "fifa_rank": 3520.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "scorer_weight": 0.0169, "squad_weight_total": 1.3229, "weight_share": 0.0128, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Roger Brugué", "weight": 0.315, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.315, "runner_up": "Iván Romero", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2553 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3899, "expected_assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0163, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1216, "total_shots": 0.2621, "rating": 6.6578, "minutes": 22.11, "total_pass": 14.3299, "accurate_pass": 11.4258, "duels_won": 1.3871, "total_long_balls": 0.3731, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2966, "total_own_half_passes": 6.1184, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.5031, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.2115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9227, "crosses_total": 1.5504, "crosses_accurate": 0.3966, "touches": 21.0174, "possession_lost": 5.5355, "dispossessed": 0.4367, "duels_lost": 1.9371, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4165, "interceptions": 0.6141, "tackles_won": 0.5024, "tackles": 0.7545, "clearances": 0.1723, "total_contest": 0.3767, "won_contest": 0.2709, "challenges_lost": 0.8043, "fouls": 0.5328, "fouls_drawn": 0.3617, "blocks": 0.1464, "big_chances_created": 0.0981, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 5.5241, "total_progression": 17.669, "progressive_carries": 0.4657, "shots_off_target": 0.1405, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.11, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.291, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "finishing_factor": 1.0365, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0261, "assist_rate": 0.0529, "provider_weight": 0.0317, "squad_weight_total": 0.7982, "weight_share": 0.0397, "creation_factor": 1.1814, "appearance_weight": 0.505, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Thiago Fernández", "weight": 0.1951, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1951, "runner_up": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1554, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Roger Brugué" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.19, "expected_assists": 0.77, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 354, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.81, "possession_estimated_pct": 45.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3 } }, "Atlético Madrid": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Julián Alvarez": { "player_id": 944656, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 170, "market_value": 107000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5577, "goal_rate": 0.5491, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "expected_assists": 0.2056, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.2467, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 10.824, "dispossessed": 0.9386, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.2168, "assists": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5878, 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"progressive_carries": 1.419, "shots_off_target": 1.3629 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3932, "goals": 0.5491, "goal_rate": 0.5491, "shots_on_target": 1.4035, "total_shots": 3.0552, "expected_assists": 0.145, "key_pass": 1.8747, "rating": 7.2467, "minutes": 75.39, "total_pass": 30.0944, "accurate_pass": 25.103, "duels_won": 3.9889, "total_long_balls": 1.0941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4778, "crosses_total": 2.79, "crosses_accurate": 0.767, "touches": 45.7864, "possession_lost": 10.824, "dispossessed": 0.9386, "duels_lost": 4.0667, "aerial_lost": 0.5058, "total_contest": 2.9046, "won_contest": 1.6947, "ball_recovery": 2.0124, "challenges_lost": 0.8038, "fouls": 0.6382, "fouls_drawn": 0.7012, "assists": 0.2168, "assist_rate": 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"description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3932, "goal_rate": 0.5491, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.4035, "total_shots": 3.0552, "expected_assists": 0.145, "key_pass": 1.8747, "rating": 7.2467, "minutes": 75.39, "total_pass": 30.0944, "accurate_pass": 25.103, "duels_won": 3.9889, "total_long_balls": 1.0941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4778, "crosses_total": 2.79, "crosses_accurate": 0.767, "touches": 45.7864, "possession_lost": 10.824, "dispossessed": 0.9386, "duels_lost": 4.0667, "aerial_lost": 0.5058, "total_contest": 2.9046, "won_contest": 1.6947, "ball_recovery": 2.0124, "challenges_lost": 0.8038, "fouls": 0.6382, "fouls_drawn": 0.7012, "assist_rate": 0.2168, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.8515, "tackles": 1.3709, "clearances": 0.1945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4577, "big_chances_missed": 0.3608, "xgot": 0.4145, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.4791, "total_progression": 48.1952, "progressive_carries": 1.419, "shots_off_target": 1.6484, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2095, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5577, "goal_rate": 0.5491, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.4035, "total_shots": 3.0552, "expected_assists": 0.2056, "key_pass": 1.8747, "rating": 7.2467, "minutes": 75.39, "total_pass": 30.0944, "accurate_pass": 25.103, "duels_won": 3.9889, "total_long_balls": 1.0941, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8125, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2555, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.4778, "crosses_total": 2.79, "crosses_accurate": 0.767, "touches": 45.7864, "possession_lost": 10.824, "dispossessed": 0.9386, "duels_lost": 4.0667, "aerial_lost": 0.5058, "total_contest": 2.9046, "won_contest": 1.6947, "ball_recovery": 2.0124, "challenges_lost": 0.8038, "fouls": 0.6382, "fouls_drawn": 0.7012, "assist_rate": 0.2168, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.152, "tackles_won": 0.8515, "tackles": 1.3709, "clearances": 0.1945, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4577, "big_chances_missed": 0.3608, "xgot": 0.5878, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15.4791, "total_progression": 48.1952, "progressive_carries": 1.419, "shots_off_target": 1.6484, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2095, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "opponent_faced": "Aïssa Mandi, Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, 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], "others_margin": 0.239724 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.1605424880981445, "model_output": 7.1605, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0809 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0604 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.058 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0339 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0313 } ], "others": 0.1252, "total": 7.1605, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.080924 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.060352 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057967 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0259, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1672, "goals": 0.199, "goal_rate": 0.199, "shots_on_target": 0.7291, "total_shots": 2.3133, "expected_assists": 0.1829, "key_pass": 1.7683, "rating": 7.1605, "minutes": 72.92, "total_pass": 38.2806, "accurate_pass": 31.7292, "duels_won": 4.4811, "total_long_balls": 2.5829, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2866, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.7944, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2624, "crosses_total": 1.9783, "crosses_accurate": 0.7527, "touches": 53.2243, "possession_lost": 10.8985, "dispossessed": 0.9903, "duels_lost": 4.3642, "aerial_lost": 0.6967, "total_contest": 2.6534, "won_contest": 1.995, "ball_recovery": 2.8009, "challenges_lost": 0.6598, "fouls": 1.7004, "fouls_drawn": 1.1124, "assists": 0.0798, "assist_rate": 0.0798, "interceptions": 0.1977, 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"contribution": 0.1342 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0495 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0349 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0338 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0337 } ], "others": -0.2197, "total": 0.8141, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.134164 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.049473 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03487 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.033779 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.033713 } ], "others_margin": -0.219777 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.924306869506836, "model_output": 6.9243, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0684 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0375 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0159 } ], "others": -0.0574, "total": 6.9243, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.068421 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037455 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.025749 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021021 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.015851 } ], "others_margin": -0.057343 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0362 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0172 } ], "others": -0.0157, "total": 7.0222, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084364 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036242 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023884 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021034 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.017186 } ], "others_margin": -0.015683 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0160, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "assists": 0.1381, "assist_rate": 0.1381, "expected_goals": 0.0662, "goals": 0.0666, "goal_rate": 0.0666, "shots_on_target": 0.2953, "total_shots": 1.023, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1708, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 0.7936, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, "interceptions": 1.4391, "tackles_won": 0.4131, "tackles": 1.0493, "clearances": 0.2777, "total_contest": 1.7797, "won_contest": 1.1567, "challenges_lost": 0.8132, "fouls": 0.4666, "fouls_drawn": 0.6741, "blocks": 0.1271, "big_chances_created": 0.1547, "big_chances_missed": 0.0163, "xgot": 0.078, "ball_carries": 20.7434, "total_progression": 56.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.5509, "shots_off_target": 0.7277 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.016, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0142)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "assists": 0.1409, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "expected_goals": 0.0662, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "shots_on_target": 0.2959, "total_shots": 1.0133, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 0.7936, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, "interceptions": 1.433, "tackles_won": 0.4168, "tackles": 1.0493, "clearances": 0.2777, "total_contest": 1.7797, "won_contest": 1.1567, "challenges_lost": 0.8132, "fouls": 0.4695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6885, "blocks": 0.1271, "big_chances_created": 0.1547, "big_chances_missed": 0.0163, "xgot": 0.078, "ball_carries": 20.7434, "total_progression": 56.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.5509, "shots_off_target": 0.7277 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0142, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7742, "prior_reliability": 0.1533, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6741, "after": 0.6885 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.1708, "after": 1.1589 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.023, "after": 1.0133 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.4391, "after": 1.433 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "assists": 0.1409, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "expected_goals": 0.0662, "goals": 0.0657, "goal_rate": 0.0657, "shots_on_target": 0.2959, "total_shots": 1.0236, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 0.7936, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, "interceptions": 1.433, "tackles_won": 0.4168, "tackles": 1.0493, "clearances": 0.2777, "total_contest": 1.7797, "won_contest": 1.1567, "challenges_lost": 0.8132, "fouls": 0.4695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6885, "blocks": 0.1271, "big_chances_created": 0.1547, "big_chances_missed": 0.0163, "xgot": 0.078, "ball_carries": 20.7434, "total_progression": 56.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.5509, "shots_off_target": 0.7277 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "assists": 0.1409, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "goals": 0.0831, "goal_rate": 0.0831, "shots_on_target": 0.3744, "total_shots": 1.2952, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, "interceptions": 1.433, "tackles_won": 0.4168, "tackles": 1.0493, "clearances": 0.2777, "total_contest": 1.7797, "won_contest": 1.1567, "challenges_lost": 0.8132, "fouls": 0.4695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6885, "blocks": 0.1271, "big_chances_created": 0.1547, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0987, "ball_carries": 20.7434, "total_progression": 56.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.5509, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2653, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.2653, "skill_edge": 0.2005, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.8829, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Daniel Requena", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0838 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.7936, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.0236, "after": 1.2952 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7277, "after": 0.9208 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2959, "after": 0.3744 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.078, "after": 0.0987 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0662, "after": 0.0838 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0657, "after": 0.0831 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "goal_rate": 0.0831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3744, "total_shots": 1.2952, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, "interceptions": 1.433, "tackles_won": 0.4168, "tackles": 1.0493, "clearances": 0.2777, "total_contest": 1.7797, "won_contest": 1.1567, "challenges_lost": 0.8132, "fouls": 0.4695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6885, "blocks": 0.1271, "big_chances_created": 0.1547, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.0987, "ball_carries": 20.7434, "total_progression": 56.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.5509, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2653, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1634, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.0831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3744, "total_shots": 1.2952, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, "interceptions": 1.433, "tackles_won": 0.4168, "tackles": 1.0493, "clearances": 0.2777, "total_contest": 1.7797, "won_contest": 1.1567, "challenges_lost": 0.8132, "fouls": 0.4695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6885, "blocks": 0.1271, "big_chances_created": 0.1547, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.14, "ball_carries": 20.7434, "total_progression": 56.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.5509, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2653, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 1.1556 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0838, "after": 0.1188 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1152, "after": 0.1634 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1634, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.0831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3744, "total_shots": 1.2952, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, "interceptions": 1.433, "tackles_won": 0.4168, "tackles": 1.0493, "clearances": 0.2777, "total_contest": 1.7797, "won_contest": 1.1567, "challenges_lost": 0.8132, "fouls": 0.4695, "fouls_drawn": 0.6885, "blocks": 0.1271, "big_chances_created": 0.1547, "big_chances_missed": 0.0206, "xgot": 0.14, "ball_carries": 20.7434, "total_progression": 56.4067, "progressive_carries": 1.5509, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2653, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Requena", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Requena", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9948, "creation_factor": 1.1556, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 246, "fifa_rank": 315.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.3333, "expected_assists": 0.1634, "assist_rate": 0.1409, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1188, "goal_rate": 0.0831, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3744, "total_shots": 1.2952, "rating": 7.0222, "minutes": 69.68, "total_pass": 49.4773, "accurate_pass": 43.8098, "duels_won": 3.6737, "total_long_balls": 3.1832, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1639, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9449, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.7292, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.5323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.0806, "crosses_total": 1.1589, "crosses_accurate": 0.3515, "touches": 62.8103, "possession_lost": 10.1039, "dispossessed": 1.3316, "duels_lost": 3.462, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.2275, 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.511243 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.114651 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.11214 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.062442 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053495 } ], "others_margin": -0.062192 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.14705398678779602, "model_output": 0.1471, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0322 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.095, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0322 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 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}, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1661 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.1221 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0949 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0528 } ], "others": -0.1505, "total": 1.5773, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.307831 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.166105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.122103 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.094855 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.052828 } ], "others_margin": -0.150501 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.04166316986084, "model_output": 7.0417, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0787 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0738 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0247 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": 0.0027, "total": 7.0417, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.07871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07378 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024737 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.021707 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015135 } ], "others_margin": 0.002669 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.625)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5062, "expected_assists": 0.1492, "assists": 0.1197, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.6625, "total_shots": 1.5977, "rating": 7.0417, "minutes": 88.69, "total_pass": 50.2872, "accurate_pass": 44.2807, "duels_won": 4.646, "total_long_balls": 3.4616, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4348, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8523, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.2174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4285, "crosses_total": 4.3357, "crosses_accurate": 0.8529, "touches": 75.6604, "possession_lost": 13.6823, "dispossessed": 0.2373, "duels_lost": 3.4732, "aerial_won": 0.3474, "aerial_lost": 0.4519, "interceptions": 0.9769, "tackles_won": 1.6874, "tackles": 2.4935, "clearances": 1.131, "total_contest": 2.6737, "won_contest": 1.3711, "challenges_lost": 0.7741, "fouls": 0.8849, "fouls_drawn": 0.434, "blocks": 0.1458, "big_chances_created": 0.4461, "big_chances_missed": 0.1749, "xgot": 0.257, "ball_carries": 18.6207, "total_progression": 62.6043, "progressive_carries": 2.1257, "shots_off_target": 0.9351 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19400000, "quality_factor": 0.6251, "boost_factor": 1.0129, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5062, "expected_assists": 0.1492, "assists": 0.1197, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "expected_goals": 0.1804, "goals": 0.149, "goal_rate": 0.149, "shots_on_target": 0.6625, "total_shots": 1.5977, "rating": 7.0417, "minutes": 88.69, "total_pass": 50.2872, "accurate_pass": 44.2807, "duels_won": 4.646, "total_long_balls": 3.4616, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4348, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8523, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.2174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4285, "crosses_total": 4.3357, "crosses_accurate": 0.8529, "touches": 75.6604, "possession_lost": 13.6823, "dispossessed": 0.2373, "duels_lost": 3.4732, "aerial_won": 0.3474, "aerial_lost": 0.4519, "interceptions": 0.9769, "tackles_won": 1.6874, "tackles": 2.4935, "clearances": 1.131, "total_contest": 2.6737, "won_contest": 1.3711, "challenges_lost": 0.7741, "fouls": 0.8849, "fouls_drawn": 0.434, "blocks": 0.1458, "big_chances_created": 0.4461, "big_chances_missed": 0.1749, "xgot": 0.257, "ball_carries": 18.6207, "total_progression": 62.6043, "progressive_carries": 2.1257, "shots_off_target": 0.9351 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5062, "expected_assists": 0.1492, "assists": 0.1197, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "expected_goals": 0.1985, "goals": 0.164, "goal_rate": 0.164, "shots_on_target": 0.7291, "total_shots": 1.7584, "rating": 7.0417, "minutes": 88.69, "total_pass": 50.2872, "accurate_pass": 44.2807, "duels_won": 4.646, "total_long_balls": 3.4616, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4348, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8523, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.2174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4285, "crosses_total": 4.3357, "crosses_accurate": 0.8529, "touches": 75.6604, "possession_lost": 13.6823, "dispossessed": 0.2373, "duels_lost": 3.4732, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4519, "interceptions": 0.9769, "tackles_won": 1.6874, "tackles": 2.4935, "clearances": 1.131, "total_contest": 2.6737, "won_contest": 1.3711, "challenges_lost": 0.7741, "fouls": 0.8849, "fouls_drawn": 0.434, "blocks": 0.1458, "big_chances_created": 0.4461, "big_chances_missed": 0.1925, "xgot": 0.2829, "ball_carries": 18.6207, "total_progression": 62.6043, "progressive_carries": 2.1257, "shots_off_target": 1.0292, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1006, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nacho Pérez", "opponent_faced": "Nacho Pérez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Nacho Pérez", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1006, "skill_edge": 0.0845, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.6251, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Nacho Pérez", "market_value": 1600000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1985 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3474, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5977, "after": 1.7584 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9351, "after": 1.0292 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6625, "after": 0.7291 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.257, "after": 0.2829 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1804, "after": 0.1985 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1749, "after": 0.1925 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.149, "after": 0.164 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5062, "expected_assists": 0.1492, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1985, "goal_rate": 0.164, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7291, "total_shots": 1.7584, "rating": 7.0417, "minutes": 88.69, "total_pass": 50.2872, "accurate_pass": 44.2807, "duels_won": 4.646, "total_long_balls": 3.4616, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4348, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8523, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.2174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4285, "crosses_total": 4.3357, "crosses_accurate": 0.8529, "touches": 75.6604, "possession_lost": 13.6823, "dispossessed": 0.2373, "duels_lost": 3.4732, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4519, "interceptions": 0.9769, "tackles_won": 1.6874, "tackles": 2.4935, "clearances": 1.131, "total_contest": 2.6737, "won_contest": 1.3711, "challenges_lost": 0.7741, "fouls": 0.8849, "fouls_drawn": 0.434, "blocks": 0.1458, "big_chances_created": 0.4461, "big_chances_missed": 0.1925, "xgot": 0.2829, "ball_carries": 18.6207, "total_progression": 62.6043, "progressive_carries": 2.1257, "shots_off_target": 1.0292, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1006, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Nacho Pérez", "opponent_faced": "Nacho Pérez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5062, "expected_assists": 0.2116, "assist_rate": 0.1197, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2815, "goal_rate": 0.164, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.7291, "total_shots": 1.7584, "rating": 7.0417, "minutes": 88.69, "total_pass": 50.2872, "accurate_pass": 44.2807, "duels_won": 4.646, "total_long_balls": 3.4616, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4348, "total_own_half_passes": 19.0699, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8523, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.2174, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.4285, "crosses_total": 4.3357, "crosses_accurate": 0.8529, "touches": 75.6604, "possession_lost": 13.6823, "dispossessed": 0.2373, "duels_lost": 3.4732, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.4519, "interceptions": 0.9769, "tackles_won": 1.6874, "tackles": 2.4935, "clearances": 1.131, "total_contest": 2.6737, "won_contest": 1.3711, "challenges_lost": 0.7741, "fouls": 0.8849, "fouls_drawn": 0.434, "blocks": 0.1458, "big_chances_created": 0.4461, "big_chances_missed": 0.1925, "xgot": 0.4012, "ball_carries": 18.6207, "total_progression": 62.6043, "progressive_carries": 2.1257, "shots_off_target": 1.0292, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1006, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": 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"features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], 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"trained_on": { "matches": 1420, "players": 625, "rows": 21826 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1502, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "minutes": 28.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Sevilla", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-19", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 8.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 3.7511, "aerialWon": 1.3363, "totalClearance_p90": 4.5429, "totalTackle": 1.3794, "totalPass": 58.0061 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9473531246185303, "model_output": 0.9474, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.289 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0289 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0285 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0217 } ], 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{ "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3857, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1712 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0288 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0242 } ], "others": -0.0992, "total": 1.336, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.326186, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.11651 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.028357 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.019184 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.017124 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.016698 } ], "others_margin": -0.071618 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.8150310516357422, "model_output": 0.815, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1981 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0663 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0478 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0244 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8457, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.105 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0238 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.0351, "total": 0.815, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.167585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117037 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.035746 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.028198 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.027074 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.020819 } ], "others_margin": -0.042144 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 4.518193244934082, "model_output": 4.5182, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2965 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1411 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0221 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4317, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4302 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2327 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.2233 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.1954 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1361 } ], "others": -0.1312, "total": 4.5182, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233062, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.118092 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.058503 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.053103 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.044269 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.029712 } ], "others_margin": -0.02863 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.5057644844055176, "model_output": 1.5058, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1505 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0979 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0807 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0479 } ], "others": 0.0575, "total": 1.5058, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.10369 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.066237 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.058115 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.037047 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.033626 } ], "others_margin": 0.038931 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7920188903808594, "model_output": 0.792, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2511 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0502 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0235 } ], "others": -0.0098, "total": 0.792, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.251127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050167 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.026973 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025541 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.023472 } ], "others_margin": -0.009854 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.045648574829102, "model_output": 7.0456, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0601 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.042 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 } ], "others": 0.039, "total": 7.0456, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.060065 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.05131 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.042049 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.036005 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02172 } ], "others_margin": 0.038985 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0084, quality 0.758)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9553, "tackles": 1.3473, "tackles_won": 0.8219, "clearances": 4.5561, "aerial_won": 1.5184, "total_shots": 0.7987, "rating": 7.0456, "minutes": 88.23, "total_pass": 65.816, "accurate_pass": 59.7204, "duels_won": 3.8924, "total_long_balls": 6.2984, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2579, "total_own_half_passes": 40.396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.6698, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.4202, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.0507, "crosses_total": 0.2197, "crosses_accurate": 0.0137, "touches": 78.804, "possession_lost": 7.5254, "dispossessed": 0.1879, "duels_lost": 1.8963, "aerial_lost": 0.879, "total_contest": 0.5481, "won_contest": 0.498, "ball_recovery": 3.6524, "challenges_lost": 0.6361, "fouls": 0.1588, "fouls_drawn": 0.1822, "blocks": 0.9662, "goals": 0.0, 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21.0507, "crosses_total": 0.2212, "crosses_accurate": 0.0137, "touches": 78.804, "possession_lost": 7.5254, "dispossessed": 0.1879, "duels_lost": 1.8963, "aerial_lost": 0.879, "total_contest": 0.5481, "won_contest": 0.498, "ball_recovery": 3.6524, "challenges_lost": 0.6361, "fouls": 0.1612, "fouls_drawn": 0.1937, "blocks": 0.9662, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1488, "assist_rate": 0.1488, "expected_goals": 0.0613, "expected_assists": 0.0444, "shots_on_target": 0.1444, "big_chances_created": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0181, "ball_carries": 18.8923, "total_progression": 78.2888, "progressive_carries": 1.3379, "key_pass": 0.585, "shots_off_target": 0.6521, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Iván Romero", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 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"starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8352, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Pubill", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kipras Kazukolovas", "ranking": 148 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Mina", "ranking": 149 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan Tah", "ranking": 150 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Méndez", "ranking": 151 }, { "player_name": "Elseid Hysaj", "ranking": 152 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alex Muralha", "ranking": 154 }, { "player_name": "Guilherme Arana", "ranking": 155 }, { "player_name": "Will Smallbone", "ranking": 156 }, { "player_name": "Do-dam Kim", "ranking": 157 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 158 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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"target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.1850004196166992, "model_output": 1.185, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1491 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.1215 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0838 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0709 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0481 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 1.185, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.102771 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.082946 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.061484 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.055167 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.039243 } ], "others_margin": -0.014546 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5142202377319336, "model_output": 0.5142, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0588 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.029 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0202, "total": 0.5142, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058782 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029034 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01367 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010619 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.007645 } ], "others_margin": -0.020201 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.835235118865967, "model_output": 6.8352, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0059 } ], "others": 0.0069, "total": 6.8352, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019541 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.019047 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.01079 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.005884 } ], "others_margin": 0.006817 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0146, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8389, "tackles": 1.2828, "tackles_won": 0.8226, "clearances": 3.0584, "aerial_won": 1.2023, "total_shots": 0.5217, "rating": 6.8352, "minutes": 81.67, "total_pass": 54.7014, "accurate_pass": 49.9615, "duels_won": 4.1008, "total_long_balls": 3.9196, "accurate_long_balls": 2.4457, "total_own_half_passes": 31.3206, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.8066, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.155, "crosses_total": 0.6161, "crosses_accurate": 0.182, "touches": 68.8732, "possession_lost": 7.3111, "dispossessed": 0.1992, "duels_lost": 2.4138, "aerial_lost": 0.8303, "total_contest": 0.2918, "won_contest": 0.2327, "ball_recovery": 3.0884, "challenges_lost": 0.2368, "fouls": 1.0944, "fouls_drawn": 0.7851, "blocks": 0.3355, "goals": 0.1093, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057726 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.033166 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029863 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.010984 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.01086 } ], "others_margin": -0.008563 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.049922466278076, "model_output": 7.0499, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0798 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0649 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0349 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0308 } ], "others": 0.012, "total": 7.0499, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.07981 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.064856 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.034888 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.031955 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.0308 } ], "others_margin": 0.012097 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0637, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2026, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6154, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6539, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.7828, "fouls_drawn": 0.2029, "blocks": 0.2061, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0884, "assist_rate": 0.0884, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "shots_on_target": 0.4397, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0046, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0074)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0923, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0074, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9328, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7828, "after": 0.8046 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.6539, "after": 1.6417 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.0637, "after": 1.0742 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2029, "after": 0.2106 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0923, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0923, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0481, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0391, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0554, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0846 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0481, "after": 0.0682 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0812, "after": 0.1152 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 85.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0554, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0846, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 264, "fifa_rank": 157.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0554, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673, "opponent_faced": "Thiago Fernández", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0659, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.0846, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0659, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0546, "squad_weight_total": 2.4769, "weight_share": 0.022, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.6971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6971, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3346 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3346, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3062 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0742, "tackles": 1.9307, "tackles_won": 1.2029, "clearances": 1.8019, "aerial_won": 0.5949, "total_shots": 0.6155, "rating": 7.0499, "minutes": 83.95, "total_pass": 59.9965, "accurate_pass": 55.3921, "duels_won": 3.3514, "total_long_balls": 3.0151, "accurate_long_balls": 1.9397, "total_own_half_passes": 24.7968, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.2887, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.1997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.1034, "crosses_total": 1.6417, "crosses_accurate": 0.1748, "touches": 78.167, "possession_lost": 8.3903, "dispossessed": 0.5964, "duels_lost": 3.193, "aerial_lost": 0.3507, "total_contest": 0.8823, "won_contest": 0.6663, "ball_recovery": 4.5706, "challenges_lost": 1.247, "fouls": 0.8046, "fouls_drawn": 0.2106, "blocks": 0.2061, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0923, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0682, "expected_assists": 0.1152, "shots_on_target": 0.4365, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0554, "ball_carries": 19.7821, "total_progression": 73.9596, "progressive_carries": 1.5327, "key_pass": 0.961, "shots_off_target": 0.1757, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, 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"margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.046162 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.037324 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.015613 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.01362 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012336 } ], "others_margin": -0.00719 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0028, quality 0.590)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9025, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 0.4885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4885, "saves_inside_box": 1.5284, "possession_lost": 6.8941, "duels_won": 0.1427, "duels_lost": 0.0031, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0598, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9441 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16000000, "quality_factor": 0.59, "boost_factor": 1.0028, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0144)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9039, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 0.4885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4885, "saves_inside_box": 1.5284, "possession_lost": 6.8941, "duels_won": 0.1427, "duels_lost": 0.0031, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0638, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9441 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0144, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.9039, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 0.4885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4885, "saves_inside_box": 1.5284, "possession_lost": 6.8941, "duels_won": 0.1427, "duels_lost": 0.0031, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0638, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9441 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9039, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 0.4885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4885, "saves_inside_box": 1.5284, "possession_lost": 6.8941, "duels_won": 0.1427, "duels_lost": 0.0031, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0638, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9441, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3957, "shots_faced": 13.3, "expected_saves": 3.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.12, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.3957 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.9039, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 0.4885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4885, "saves_inside_box": 1.5284, "possession_lost": 6.8941, "duels_won": 0.1427, "duels_lost": 0.0031, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0638, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9441, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3957, "shots_faced": 13.3, "expected_saves": 3.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.12, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9039, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 0.4885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4885, "saves_inside_box": 1.5284, "possession_lost": 6.8941, "duels_won": 0.1427, "duels_lost": 0.0031, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0638, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9441, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3957, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.3, "after": 11.3 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.26, "after": 2.76 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.12, "after": 0.95 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 88.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9039, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 0.4885, "sweeper_accurate": 0.4885, "saves_inside_box": 1.5284, "possession_lost": 6.8941, "duels_won": 0.1427, "duels_lost": 0.0031, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0638, "total_own_half_passes": 20.0766, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9441, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.3957, "shots_faced": 11.3, "expected_saves": 2.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.95, "opponent_faced": "Roger Brugué, Iván Romero", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 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"squad_weight_total": 2.4769, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.6971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6971, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3346 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3346, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3062 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.9039, "goals_prevented": -0.0256, "rating": 7.0523, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4661, "accurate_pass": 19.7812, "total_long_balls": 10.8306, "accurate_long_balls": 4.3138, "touches": 35.4034, "clearances": 0.4569, "ball_recovery": 8.3731, "high_claims": 0.4187, "punches": 0.6132, "aerial_won": 0.0832, "sweeper_actions": 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"appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.257, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.257, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2198 } ] } } ] }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "player_id": 1099352, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 173, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2754, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 30, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1665, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 43, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.248, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1606, "finishing_factor": 1.0336, "creation_factor": 0.9066, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421082, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", 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"home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0061, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2677, "expected_assists": 0.0438, 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"importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1706 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1666 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0444 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0163 } ], "others": 0.0318, "total": 1.4025, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.170604 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.16659 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.044363 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.021289 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016303 } ], "others_margin": 0.031847 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.000434875488281, "model_output": 7.0004, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0744 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0145 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0027, "total": 7.0004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.074354 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.016166 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014528 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.013395 } ], "others_margin": -0.002602 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0096, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assists": 0.1044, "assist_rate": 0.1044, "expected_goals": 0.1556, "goals": 0.1599, "goal_rate": 0.1599, "shots_on_target": 0.5482, "total_shots": 1.4161, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4086, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 1.4898, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5557, "tackles_won": 1.3811, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8904, "fouls_drawn": 1.3211, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.0864, "xgot": 0.0941, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 0.8679 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.0096, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0113)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assists": 0.1073, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "expected_goals": 0.1556, "goals": 0.1622, "goal_rate": 0.1622, "shots_on_target": 0.5461, "total_shots": 1.4166, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 1.4898, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.0864, "xgot": 0.0941, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 0.8679 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0113, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8686, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5557, "after": 0.5658 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assists": 0.1073, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "expected_goals": 0.1556, "goals": 0.1622, "goal_rate": 0.1622, "shots_on_target": 0.5461, "total_shots": 1.4166, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 1.4898, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.0864, "xgot": 0.0941, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 0.8679 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assists": 0.1073, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "expected_goals": 0.1942, "goals": 0.2024, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 1.7679, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.1078, "xgot": 0.1174, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 1.0831, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.248, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.248, "skill_edge": 0.1767, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.8301, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "market_value": 1700000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1942 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.4898, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.4166, "after": 1.7679 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8679, "after": 1.0831 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5461, "after": 0.6815 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1622, "after": 0.2024 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1556, "after": 0.1942 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0941, "after": 0.1174 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.0864, "after": 0.1078 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1235, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1942, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 1.7679, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.1078, "xgot": 0.1174, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 1.0831, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.248, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2754, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 1.7679, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.1078, "xgot": 0.1665, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 1.0831, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.248, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0336, "creation_factor": 0.9066 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1942, "after": 0.2754 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1235, "after": 0.1751 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2754, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 1.7679, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.1078, "xgot": 0.1665, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 1.0831, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.248, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0336, "creation_factor": 0.9066, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 957, "fifa_rank": 578.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2754, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 1.7679, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.1078, "xgot": 0.1665, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 1.0831, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.248, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Oriol Rey", "opponent_faced": "Oriol Rey", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2407, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0336, "creation_factor": 0.9066, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2407, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "scorer_weight": 0.2847, "squad_weight_total": 2.4769, "weight_share": 0.1149, "finishing_factor": 1.0336, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.6971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6971, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3346 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3346, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3062 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2257, "expected_assists": 0.1751, "assist_rate": 0.1073, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2754, "goal_rate": 0.2024, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6815, "total_shots": 1.7679, "rating": 7.0004, "minutes": 78.17, "total_pass": 36.7209, "accurate_pass": 29.5178, "duels_won": 5.6646, "total_long_balls": 0.6999, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3678, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9344, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.9734, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.7865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.5444, "crosses_total": 1.4049, "crosses_accurate": 0.4838, "touches": 53.7777, "possession_lost": 12.7867, "dispossessed": 1.1152, "duels_lost": 5.4948, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.7846, "interceptions": 0.5658, "tackles_won": 1.3859, "tackles": 2.1391, "clearances": 0.711, "total_contest": 1.9451, "won_contest": 0.7146, "challenges_lost": 1.6274, "fouls": 0.8885, "fouls_drawn": 1.3184, "blocks": 0.1201, "big_chances_created": 0.3527, "big_chances_missed": 0.1078, "xgot": 0.1665, "ball_carries": 13.962, "total_progression": 42.8916, "progressive_carries": 1.8734, "shots_off_target": 1.0831, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.248, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, 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"contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0314, "total": -0.0366, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023055, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.027583 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.02094 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014491 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012298 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.011363 } ], "others_margin": 0.031281 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.902874946594238, "model_output": 6.9029, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": 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role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9925, quality 0.440)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8041, "goals_prevented": -0.0363, "rating": 6.9029, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 27.4033, "accurate_pass": 20.8043, "total_long_balls": 11.4377, "accurate_long_balls": 4.8386, "touches": 40.2588, "clearances": 1.0364, "ball_recovery": 9.9405, "high_claims": 1.6765, "punches": 0.7718, "aerial_won": 0.8482, "sweeper_actions": 0.7197, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7197, "saves_inside_box": 1.7624, "possession_lost": 6.9208, "duels_won": 0.9254, "duels_lost": 0.2047, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2047, "fouls_drawn": 0.3729, "total_own_half_passes": 20.8668, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.916 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3200000, "quality_factor": 0.4399, "boost_factor": 0.9925, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 4.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.11)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4331, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9029, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.4, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1545, "appearance_probability": 0.109 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4331, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9029, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4331, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9029, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.109, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4331, "goals_prevented": -0.0056, "rating": 6.9029, "minutes": 4.4, "total_pass": 4.2327, "accurate_pass": 3.2134, "total_long_balls": 1.7666, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7474, "touches": 6.2183, "clearances": 0.1601, "ball_recovery": 1.5354, "high_claims": 0.2589, "punches": 0.1192, "aerial_won": 0.131, "sweeper_actions": 0.1112, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1112, "saves_inside_box": 0.2722, "possession_lost": 1.069, "duels_won": 0.1429, "duels_lost": 0.0316, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0316, "fouls_drawn": 0.0576, "total_own_half_passes": 3.2231, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9217, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 315, "fifa_rank": 411.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } } ] }, "Cristian Romero": { "player_id": 829932, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 185, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.9869, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 32, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 3.437, "dispossessed": 0.1701, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.1276, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0016, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0775, "expected_assists": 0.036, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1136, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 76, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.366, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.04, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421071, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1459, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 67, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421056, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5698, "expected_assists": 0.0261, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 82, "accurate_pass": 75, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416339, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0716, "expected_assists": 0.014, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 54, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416335, "match_date": "2026-09-16", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 68, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1119, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 54, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416332, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0446, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416317, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1759, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 33, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0427, "expected_assists": 0.0052, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0185, "expected_assists": 0.0421, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 68, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025176, "match_date": "2026-02-07", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 5.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0185, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025149, "match_date": "2026-02-01", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 332, "combined_rank_score": 222.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 72.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.58, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 372.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9869, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Senesi", "ranking": 331 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Oyarzabal", "ranking": 334 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 336 }, { "player_name": "Charles Aránguiz", "ranking": 337 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 29, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 29, "data_confidence": 0.75, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.04315307438117, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.3655978670173259, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0134, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Atlético Madrid", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (29 historical appearances) to 15.0 expected mins (appearance prob 0.37); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3785, "tackles": 0.5247, "tackles_won": 0.3701, "clearances": 1.8299, "aerial_won": 0.7725, "total_shots": 0.6273, "rating": 6.9869, "minutes": 24.27, "total_pass": 55.5893, "accurate_pass": 51.0802, "duels_won": 5.9141, "total_long_balls": 4.2901, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9135, "total_own_half_passes": 32.5793, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4188, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.01, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6614, "crosses_total": 0.0215, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.4435, "possession_lost": 5.4718, "dispossessed": 0.1679, "duels_lost": 2.8954, "aerial_lost": 1.272, "total_contest": 0.3446, "won_contest": 0.3284, "ball_recovery": 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"weight": 0.1094, "rating": 7.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-16", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.093, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.079, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 31.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0672, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 70.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0571, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0485, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-07", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 29.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0412, "rating": 5.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-01", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0351, "rating": 5.8 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1906 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0787 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0433, "total": 0.1528, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.190559 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.078746 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011658 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009779 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.008397 } ], "others_margin": -0.043422 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7555646896362305, "model_output": 6.7556, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0132 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.007 } ], "others": 0.0008, "total": 6.7556, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.016957 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009363 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.008081 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.007029 } ], "others_margin": 0.000653 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0045, quality 0.622)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3537, "tackles": 0.525, "tackles_won": 0.2736, "clearances": 1.4569, "aerial_won": 0.8129, "total_shots": 0.1535, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 32.08, "total_pass": 21.7003, "accurate_pass": 19.3673, "duels_won": 1.8877, "total_long_balls": 2.6739, "accurate_long_balls": 1.473, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4232, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9441, "crosses_total": 0.1113, "crosses_accurate": 0.0467, "touches": 26.0952, "possession_lost": 2.6631, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9506, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "total_contest": 0.1239, "won_contest": 0.1239, "ball_recovery": 1.262, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.4759, "fouls_drawn": 0.3279, "blocks": 0.2944, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4665, "total_progression": 25.3422, "progressive_carries": 0.382, "key_pass": 0.0467, "shots_off_target": 0.1535 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19100000, "quality_factor": 0.6221, "boost_factor": 1.0045, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0100)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3581, "tackles": 0.525, "tackles_won": 0.2748, "clearances": 1.4569, "aerial_won": 0.8129, "total_shots": 0.152, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 32.08, "total_pass": 21.7003, "accurate_pass": 19.3673, "duels_won": 1.8877, "total_long_balls": 2.6739, "accurate_long_balls": 1.473, "total_own_half_passes": 14.6567, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4232, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9441, "crosses_total": 0.1102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0467, "touches": 26.0952, "possession_lost": 2.6631, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9506, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "total_contest": 0.1239, "won_contest": 0.1239, "ball_recovery": 1.262, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.4751, "fouls_drawn": 0.3266, "blocks": 0.2944, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0103, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4665, "total_progression": 25.3422, "progressive_carries": 0.382, "key_pass": 0.0467, "shots_off_target": 0.1535 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.01, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3564, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Atlético Madrid" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 32.1 to 14.3 expected minutes 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"total_progression": 11.2994, "progressive_carries": 0.1703, "key_pass": 0.0208, "shots_off_target": 0.0684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.3, "projection_minutes": 32.08, "minutes_scale": 0.4459, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles": 0.2341, "tackles_won": 0.1225, "clearances": 0.6496, "aerial_won": 0.3624, "total_shots": 0.0684, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.6756, "accurate_pass": 8.6353, "duels_won": 0.8417, "total_long_balls": 1.1922, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6568, "total_own_half_passes": 6.535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.985, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1406, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6503, "crosses_total": 0.0491, "crosses_accurate": 0.0208, "touches": 11.6351, "possession_lost": 1.1874, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4238, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "total_contest": 0.0552, "won_contest": 0.0552, "ball_recovery": 0.5627, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.2118, "fouls_drawn": 0.1456, "blocks": 0.1313, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.775, "total_progression": 11.2994, "progressive_carries": 0.1703, "key_pass": 0.0208, "shots_off_target": 0.0684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles": 0.2341, "tackles_won": 0.1225, "clearances": 0.6496, "aerial_won": 0.3624, "total_shots": 0.0684, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.6756, "accurate_pass": 8.6353, "duels_won": 0.8417, "total_long_balls": 1.1922, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6568, "total_own_half_passes": 6.535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.985, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1406, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6503, "crosses_total": 0.0491, "crosses_accurate": 0.0208, "touches": 11.6351, "possession_lost": 1.1874, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4238, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "total_contest": 0.0552, "won_contest": 0.0552, "ball_recovery": 0.5627, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.2118, "fouls_drawn": 0.1456, "blocks": 0.1313, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.775, "total_progression": 11.2994, "progressive_carries": 0.1703, "key_pass": 0.0208, "shots_off_target": 0.0684, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.232, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1597, "tackles": 0.2341, "tackles_won": 0.1225, "clearances": 0.6496, "aerial_won": 0.3624, "total_shots": 0.0684, "rating": 6.7556, "minutes": 14.3, "total_pass": 9.6756, "accurate_pass": 8.6353, "duels_won": 0.8417, "total_long_balls": 1.1922, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6568, "total_own_half_passes": 6.535, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.985, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1406, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6503, "crosses_total": 0.0491, "crosses_accurate": 0.0208, "touches": 11.6351, "possession_lost": 1.1874, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4238, "aerial_lost": 0.3033, "total_contest": 0.0552, "won_contest": 0.0552, "ball_recovery": 0.5627, "challenges_lost": 0.1714, "fouls": 0.2118, "fouls_drawn": 0.1456, "blocks": 0.1313, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 182, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0157, "assist_rate": 0.024, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0335, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.7004, "dispossessed": 0.3603, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0017, "ball_carries": 4, 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0.1054, "total_contest": 0.6231, "won_contest": 0.1877, "challenges_lost": 0.2561, "fouls": 0.6135, "fouls_drawn": 0.5669, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0026, "ball_carries": 5.9092, "total_progression": 23.6464, "progressive_carries": 0.4552, "shots_off_target": 0.4053 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 29, "history_shrink": 0.1471, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0076)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2939, "expected_assists": 0.0239, "assists": 0.0365, "assist_rate": 0.0365, "expected_goals": 0.0511, "goals": 0.0499, "goal_rate": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.1712, "total_shots": 0.5764, "rating": 6.6969, "minutes": 20.65, "total_pass": 13.8717, "accurate_pass": 11.3439, "duels_won": 1.6543, "total_long_balls": 0.7046, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2983, 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0.2659, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.452, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.55, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.452, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083551, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": 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"duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083306, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 4.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083161, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0359, "expected_assists": 0.5165, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 49, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081810, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083612, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.02, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083602, "match_date": "2026-03-07", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", 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0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2264 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.3857, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.33395 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226375 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03401 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017732 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.014427 } ], "others_margin": -0.007367 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.719694137573242, "model_output": 6.7197, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 6.7197, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089527 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033528 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009854 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009217 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.008155 } ], "others_margin": -0.019964 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9073, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "expected_goals": 0.0302, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.1348, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 25.15, "total_pass": 14.017, "accurate_pass": 12.7014, "duels_won": 1.2708, "total_long_balls": 0.3632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1368, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4591, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2422, "crosses_total": 1.235, "crosses_accurate": 0.131, "touches": 19.2774, "possession_lost": 3.2682, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.7657, "aerial_won": 0.0804, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.412, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.0938, "total_contest": 0.8257, "won_contest": 0.576, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.3301, "fouls_drawn": 0.2161, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2807, "big_chances_missed": 0.2241, "xgot": 0.1754, "ball_carries": 6.8214, "total_progression": 24.5935, "progressive_carries": 2.3575, "shots_off_target": 0.2533 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.1 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1589, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 25.15, "minutes_scale": 0.9057, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1589, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1589, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0274, "after": 0.0208 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0705, "after": 0.0535 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2519, "fifa_rank": 1240.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "scorer_weight": 0.0221, "squad_weight_total": 2.4769, "weight_share": 0.0089, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.6971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6971, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3346 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3346, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3062 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0509, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0509, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "provider_weight": 0.059, "squad_weight_total": 1.6132, "weight_share": 0.0366, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.257, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.257, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2198 } ] } } ] }, "Ademola Lookman": { "player_id": 824200, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0848, "goal_rate": 0.0793, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0437, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6349, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 3.7626, "dispossessed": 0.5901, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.363, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.73, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421082, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, 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0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2628 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0212 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.017 } ], "others": 0.043, "total": 0.4568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.482426 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.135638 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.071463 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.048003 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.040292 } ], "others_margin": 0.09886 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.63485050201416, "model_output": 6.6349, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0164, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0696, "goals": 0.0645, "goal_rate": 0.0645, "shots_on_target": 0.2596, "total_shots": 0.5349, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.4643, "rating": 6.6349, "minutes": 21.95, "total_pass": 9.6816, "accurate_pass": 8.2389, "duels_won": 0.7453, "total_long_balls": 0.2304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.071, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8587, "crosses_total": 0.5148, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.5788, "possession_lost": 3.0899, "dispossessed": 0.5901, "duels_lost": 1.0916, "aerial_lost": 0.2304, "total_contest": 0.467, "won_contest": 0.1959, "ball_recovery": 0.7799, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.5494, "tackles": 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"items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2684 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 0.4816, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.495577 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.092252 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.08329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.056068 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051484 } ], "others_margin": 0.072772 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6586198806762695, "model_output": 6.6586, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0764 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.067, "total": 6.6586, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076408 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.046628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.031135 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028043 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.018512 } ], "others_margin": -0.067025 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.155, "goals": 0.1556, "goal_rate": 0.1556, "shots_on_target": 0.4605, "total_shots": 1.0074, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4964, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 14.9598, "accurate_pass": 12.3468, "duels_won": 1.8862, "total_long_balls": 0.423, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.874, "crosses_total": 0.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2396, "possession_lost": 6.1716, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 3.7455, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.6592, "won_contest": 0.1451, "ball_recovery": 1.3969, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.2362, "fouls_drawn": 1.0917, "assists": 0.4069, "assist_rate": 0.4069, "interceptions": 0.437, "tackles_won": 0.2008, "tackles": 0.2008, "clearances": 0.5559, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8555, "big_chances_missed": 1.3854, "xgot": 0.7579, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 5.9866, "total_progression": 27.9325, "progressive_carries": 1.2508, "shots_off_target": 0.5469 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1752, "goals": 0.1759, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 23.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1304, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1752, "goals": 0.1759, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1752, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1511, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.7387, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0031, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1752, "after": 0.1511 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0442, "after": 0.0381 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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-0.602579 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.179265 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": -0.048355 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.048139 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.02831 } ], "others_margin": -0.007522 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.03798332065343857, "model_output": 0.038, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1025 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0785 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0538 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0536 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0055 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.003 } ], "others": -0.0068, "total": 0.038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744073, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.387098 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.1182 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.092133 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.072168 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.068926 } ], "others_margin": -0.162261 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.4816105365753174, "model_output": 0.4816, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1455 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2684 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0404 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0399 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 0.4816, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.495577 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.092252 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.08329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.056068 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051484 } ], "others_margin": 0.072772 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6586198806762695, "model_output": 6.6586, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0764 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0311 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "contribution": -0.0185 } ], "others": -0.067, "total": 6.6586, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.076408 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.046628 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.031135 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028043 }, { "name": "xg_per_shot", "margin": -0.018512 } ], "others_margin": -0.067025 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0307, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.155, "goals": 0.1556, "goal_rate": 0.1556, "shots_on_target": 0.4605, "total_shots": 1.0074, "expected_assists": 0.0391, "key_pass": 0.4964, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 23.33, "total_pass": 14.9598, "accurate_pass": 12.3468, "duels_won": 1.8862, "total_long_balls": 0.423, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.8278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.874, "crosses_total": 0.4486, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.2396, "possession_lost": 6.1716, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 3.7455, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.6592, "won_contest": 0.1451, "ball_recovery": 1.3969, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.2362, "fouls_drawn": 1.0917, "assists": 0.4069, "assist_rate": 0.4069, "interceptions": 0.437, "tackles_won": 0.2008, "tackles": 0.2008, "clearances": 0.5559, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.8555, "big_chances_missed": 1.3854, "xgot": 0.7579, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 5.9866, "total_progression": 27.9325, "progressive_carries": 1.2508, "shots_off_target": 0.5469 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0307, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.3 to 26.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1752, "goals": 0.1759, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.37, "projection_minutes": 23.33, "minutes_scale": 1.1304, "appearance_probability": 0.608 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1752, "goals": 0.1759, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assists": 0.4599, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1752, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0442, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.8567, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1511, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.7387, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0031, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.608 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1752, "after": 0.1511 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0442, "after": 0.0381 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1511, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.7387, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0031, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1190, "fifa_rank": 738.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1511, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5205, "total_shots": 1.1387, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "key_pass": 0.5611, "rating": 6.6586, "minutes": 26.37, "total_pass": 16.9101, "accurate_pass": 13.9565, "duels_won": 2.1321, "total_long_balls": 0.4781, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.2394, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.0309, "crosses_total": 0.5071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.5302, "possession_lost": 6.9762, "dispossessed": 1.3289, "duels_lost": 4.2338, "aerial_lost": 1.4299, "total_contest": 0.7451, "won_contest": 0.164, "ball_recovery": 1.579, "challenges_lost": 0.2362, "fouls": 0.267, "fouls_drawn": 1.234, "assist_rate": 0.4599, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.494, "tackles_won": 0.227, "tackles": 0.227, "clearances": 0.6284, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.967, "big_chances_missed": 1.566, "xgot": 0.7387, "offsides": 0.4788, "ball_carries": 6.7671, "total_progression": 31.5741, "progressive_carries": 1.4139, "shots_off_target": 0.6182, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.608, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.37, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1338, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0031, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1338, "goal_rate": 0.1759, "scorer_weight": 0.1516, "squad_weight_total": 2.4769, "weight_share": 0.0612, "finishing_factor": 1.0031, "appearance_weight": 0.608, "weight_rank": 6, 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"margin": -0.072563 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.055606 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.037742 } ], "others_margin": -0.101363 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0355110764503479, "model_output": 0.0355, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0322 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.095, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0397 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0016 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.0355, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.354031, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.541373 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222639 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.065139 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.038599 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.03535 } ], "others_margin": -0.15148 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.1339651346206665, "model_output": 0.134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3183, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1392 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0389 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0064 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0052 }, { "name": "totalCross", "contribution": 0.0035 } ], "others": 0.0019, "total": 0.134, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.57517 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.245166 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.046959 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039582 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.026753 } ], "others_margin": 0.014719 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3857114315032959, "model_output": 0.3857, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3339 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2264 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.034 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0177 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 0.3857, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.33395 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.226375 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.03401 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.017732 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.014427 } ], "others_margin": -0.007367 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.719694137573242, "model_output": 6.7197, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0335 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0092 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0082 } ], "others": -0.02, "total": 6.7197, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089527 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033528 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009854 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009217 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.008155 } ], "others_margin": -0.019964 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0064, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9073, "expected_assists": 0.0778, "assists": 0.0915, "assist_rate": 0.0915, "expected_goals": 0.0302, "goals": 0.0357, "goal_rate": 0.0357, "shots_on_target": 0.1348, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 25.15, "total_pass": 14.017, "accurate_pass": 12.7014, "duels_won": 1.2708, "total_long_balls": 0.3632, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1368, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8558, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4591, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1612, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2422, "crosses_total": 1.235, "crosses_accurate": 0.131, "touches": 19.2774, "possession_lost": 3.2682, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.7657, "aerial_won": 0.0804, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.412, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "tackles": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.0938, "total_contest": 0.8257, "won_contest": 0.576, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.3301, "fouls_drawn": 0.2161, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2807, "big_chances_missed": 0.2241, "xgot": 0.1754, "ball_carries": 6.8214, "total_progression": 24.5935, "progressive_carries": 2.3575, "shots_off_target": 0.2533 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0064, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.1 to 22.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1589, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.78, "projection_minutes": 25.15, "minutes_scale": 0.9057, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assists": 0.0829, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goals": 0.0323, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1589, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0705, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0274, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1589, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.27 (squad xG sum 1.5979, xG scale 1.4181, xA scale 1.4181, team xA 1.65 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.266, "squad_xg_sum": 1.5979, "squad_xa_sum": 1.1609, "team_expected_assists": 1.6463, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7265, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4181, "xa_scale": 1.4181, "opponent_lambda": 1.191, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.535 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0274, "after": 0.0208 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0705, "after": 0.0535 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2519, "fifa_rank": 1240.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "scorer_weight": 0.0221, "squad_weight_total": 2.4769, "weight_share": 0.0089, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.6971, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6971, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3346 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Alex Baena", "weight": 0.3346, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3346, "runner_up": "Kang-in Lee", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3062 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8217, "expected_assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0208, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1221, "total_shots": 0.3516, "rating": 6.7197, "minutes": 22.78, "total_pass": 12.6947, "accurate_pass": 11.5032, "duels_won": 1.1509, "total_long_balls": 0.3289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1239, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3977, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.0384, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.297, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.4647, "crosses_total": 1.1185, "crosses_accurate": 0.1186, "touches": 17.4589, "possession_lost": 2.9599, "dispossessed": 0.2125, "duels_lost": 1.5991, "aerial_won": 0.0728, "aerial_lost": 0.2022, "interceptions": 0.3731, "tackles_won": 0.3607, "tackles": 0.3607, "clearances": 0.085, "total_contest": 0.7478, "won_contest": 0.5217, "challenges_lost": 0.7713, "fouls": 0.299, "fouls_drawn": 0.1957, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2542, "big_chances_missed": 0.203, "xgot": 0.1206, "ball_carries": 6.1779, "total_progression": 22.2735, "progressive_carries": 2.1351, "shots_off_target": 0.2294, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.324, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0204, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0509, "finishing_factor": 1.0633, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0509, "assist_rate": 0.0829, "provider_weight": 0.059, "squad_weight_total": 1.6132, "weight_share": 0.0366, "creation_factor": 1.1029, "appearance_weight": 0.535, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julián Alvarez", "weight": 0.257, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.257, "runner_up": "Alex Baena", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2198 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.27, "expected_assists": 1.65, "total_shots": 20, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 541, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 7.05, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Roger Brugué", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Jan Oblak" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.59, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "xg_contribution": 0.2397, "xg_multiplier": 0.731, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Oblak", "role": "GK", "market_value": 16000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roger Brugué (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jan Oblak in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.240 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Thiago Fernández", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.458, "defenders": [ "Marcos Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.327, "xg_contribution": 0.0957, "xg_multiplier": 0.7757, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Llorente", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thiago Fernández (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marcos Llorente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €21M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Iván Romero", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.787, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.194, "xg_multiplier": 0.682, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marc Pubill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Romero (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dávid Hancko and Marc Pubill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Requena", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.241, "xg_contribution": 0.0586, "xg_multiplier": 0.737, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.759 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Requena (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.74 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Oriol Rey", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.227, "xg_contribution": 0.0204, "xg_multiplier": 0.6723, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.773 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oriol Rey (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.67 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.020 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.0559, "xg_multiplier": 0.6782, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Ander Olasagasti (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €48M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.68 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Nacho Pérez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.548, "xg_contribution": 0.1986, "xg_multiplier": 1.1006, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nacho Pérez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.452 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Grimaldo (LW) is slightly favored against Nacho Pérez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.199 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Barrios", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Daniel Requena" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.64, "xg_contribution": 0.0838, "xg_multiplier": 1.2653, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Requena", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.36 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Barrios (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Daniel Requena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.27 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Julián Alvarez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 107000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "xg_contribution": 0.3932, "xg_multiplier": 1.2095, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julián Alvarez (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Aïssa Mandi and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€107M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.21 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.393 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.307, "xg_contribution": 0.1888, "xg_multiplier": 1.1576, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.693 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.693 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (ST) is slightly favored against Aïssa Mandi and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.16 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.283, "xg_contribution": 0.1877, "xg_multiplier": 1.1227, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 }, { "player": "Ifeanyi Ndukwe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (ST) is slightly favored against Aïssa Mandi and Ifeanyi Ndukwe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.12 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.188 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Morten Hjulmand", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.623, "xg_contribution": 0.0673, "xg_multiplier": 1.3277, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.377 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morten Hjulmand (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Oriol Rey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.33 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Oriol Rey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.569, "xg_contribution": 0.1942, "xg_multiplier": 1.248, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oriol Rey", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.431 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Oriol Rey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €2M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.25 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.437, "away_midfield_power": 0.805, "home_creative_power": 0.437, "away_creative_power": 0.795, "home_defensive_power": 0.437, "away_defensive_power": 0.843, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.352, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti", "Daniel Requena" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Pablo Barrios", "Alejandro Grimaldo", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 45.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 54.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.3, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Ander Olasagasti vs Pablo Barrios", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.945, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.053 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.191, "away_lambda": 2.266, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Roger Brugué": { "opponents": [ "Jan Oblak" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thiago Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iván Romero": { "opponents": [ "Dávid Hancko", "Marc Pubill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daniel Requena": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Pablo Barrios", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oriol Rey": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Ander Olasagasti": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Giuliano Simeone" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nacho Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ifeanyi Ndukwe": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Manuel Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Roger Brugué" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Thiago Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Iván Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Requena", "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "opponents": [ "Nacho Pérez", "Daniel Requena" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Requena" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julián Alvarez": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "Aïssa Mandi", "Ifeanyi Ndukwe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Oriol Rey", "Jon Ander Olasagasti" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Jon Ander Olasagasti vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.107, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1373, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9189, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0075, "home_midfield_factor": 0.945, "away_midfield_factor": 1.053, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4494, "away_avg_quality": 0.7813, "avg_quality_gap": -0.332, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.4418, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.2821, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.5397, "elite_count_gap": -6, "combined_quality_gap": -0.707, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3889, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2262, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6643, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8357 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.945, "result": 0.7898 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.03, "result": 0.8135 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.0915 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9101, "result": 0.9933 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9481, "result": 0.9418 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9189, "result": 0.8654 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.107, "result": 0.9724 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9724, "result": 0.9724, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.707, "factor": 0.7738, "pre": 0.9724, "result": 0.7524 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7524 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.2064, "result": 0.9584 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.8765, "result": 1.3957 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.3957, "result": 1.396, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.396, "result": 1.376, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9393, "pre": 1.376, "result": 1.293 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.293 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9092, "input_total": 4.067, "result": 1.1756 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.1756, "result": 1.176, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.191 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.3136, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.3227 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.053, "result": 1.3928 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 1.3789 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.3789 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1146, "result": 1.5369 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.5533 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0075, "result": 1.5649 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1373, "result": 1.7022 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.7022, "result": 1.7022, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.707, "factor": 1.3889, "pre": 1.7022, "result": 2.3641 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.3641 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.584 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 2.8864, "result": 2.653 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.653, "result": 2.653, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 2.653, "result": 2.6909, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1818, "pre": 2.6909, "result": 3.18 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.18 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9092, "input_total": 4.067, "result": 2.8914 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 2.8914, "result": 2.891, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 2.266 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.2064, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.3333333333333335, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.707, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1818, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9393, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.376, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.6909, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3957, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.653, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.191, "final_away_lambda": 2.266 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9101, "attack_index": 1.027, "defense_concede_index": 0.786, "form_multiplier": 0.956, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.55, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.19, "team_ppg": 1.14, "opponent_ppg": 2.07 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1146, "attack_index": 1.147, "defense_concede_index": 1.117, "form_multiplier": 1.044, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.73, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.69, "team_ppg": 2.07, "opponent_ppg": 1.14 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Levante vs Atlético Madrid. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.396, Away 2.653). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.191, Away 2.266 (most likely score 1-2).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 6, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 9, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Levante UD", "away_squad": "Atlético Madrid", "home_goals_per90": 1.6666666666666667, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.33, "away_goals_per90": 2.3333333333333335, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.67, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.877, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.886, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.191, "away_lambda": 2.266, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.396, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 2.653 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-30T13:31:47Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }