{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man City", "away_team": "Brighton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0911, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0911, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0402, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1674, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0911 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0794 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0789 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.07 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0688 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0234, "0-1": 0.0263, "0-2": 0.0154, "0-3": 0.0059, "0-4": 0.0017, "1-0": 0.06, "1-1": 0.07, "1-2": 0.0402, "1-3": 0.0155, "1-4": 0.0045, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0789, "2-1": 0.0911, "2-2": 0.0526, "2-3": 0.0202, "2-4": 0.0058, "2-5": 0.0013, "3-0": 0.0688, "3-1": 0.0794, "3-2": 0.0458, "3-3": 0.0176, "3-4": 0.0051, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.045, "4-1": 0.0519, "4-2": 0.0299, "4-3": 0.0115, "4-4": 0.0033, "4-5": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0235, "5-1": 0.0271, "5-2": 0.0157, "5-3": 0.006, "5-4": 0.0017, "6-0": 0.0103, "6-1": 0.0118, "6-2": 0.0068, "6-3": 0.0026, "6-4": 0.0008, "7-0": 0.0038, "7-1": 0.0044, "7-2": 0.0026, "7-3": 0.001, "8-0": 0.0013, "8-1": 0.0014, "8-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6862, "draw": 0.1674, "away_win": 0.1464 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.726, "under_2_5_goals": 0.274, "btts_yes": 0.6349, "btts_no": 0.3651, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3154, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0732 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.95, "MCR": 7.21, "ATR": 7.31, "GK": 6.91 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.94, "MCR": 6.95, "ATR": 6.81, "GK": 7.0 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man City vs Brighton. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Man City 5W-3D-2L vs Brighton over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Erling Haaland (2), Charalampos Kostoulas", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Rayan Cherki vs Yasin Ayari). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.50, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 2.615, "away_lambda": 1.154, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 5, "away_wins": 2, "draws": 3, "home_multiplier": 1.0214, "away_multiplier": 0.9786 }, "modal_scoreline": "2-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.0911, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6862, "draw": 0.1674, "away_win": 0.1464 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6862, "fair_spread": 1.461, "fair_total": 3.769, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 2.615, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.154, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.726, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6349, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3154, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brighton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 0.9208, "probability": 0.6018, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.2587, "probability": 0.2279, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jérémy Doku (Man City)", "estimate": 0.316, "probability": 0.2709, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Pascal Groß (Brighton)", "estimate": 0.1891, "probability": 0.1723, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.769, "expected_total_shots": 36, "expected_total_passes": 1117, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.6, "possession_home_pct": 51.6, "possession_away_pct": 48.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6862, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.46 goals and fair total 3.77.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 18 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Brighton must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (2); bench watchlist: Ayyoub Bouaddi, Tijjani Reijnders.", "Brighton: starters carry the main goal usage through Charalampos Kostoulas; bench watchlist: Yankuba Minteh, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, Zadok Yohanna.", "Assist usage should flow through Jérémy Doku, Maxim De Cuyper; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 18 total first-half shots, and 1.88 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Brighton is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Brighton wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man City": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "player_id": 824509, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 196, "market_value": 46000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 10, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4192, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.7, "high_pressure_saves": 0.92, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Diego Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363892, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 4.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": -1.5365 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.2045 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 0.678 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.1892 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363645, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2751 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.7595 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.954 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": 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"global_player_rank": 141, "combined_rank_score": 128.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 229.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 27.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9099, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gianluigi Donnarumma", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Fraser", "ranking": 136 }, { "player_name": "Fabrício Bruno", "ranking": 137 }, { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 138 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 139 }, { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 140 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 142 }, { "player_name": "Joško Gvardiol", "ranking": 143 }, { "player_name": "Victor Osimhen", "ranking": 144 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Catena", "ranking": 145 }, { "player_name": "Mashkhur Mukhammadzhonov", "ranking": 146 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", 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"accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.215, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.0877, "goodHighClaim": 1.2508, "save_contribution": 2.3673, "possessionLostCtrl": 6.6893, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.2417 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.809577703475952, "model_output": 2.8096, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9271, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.038 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0169 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0557, "total": 2.8096, "log_link": true, 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"totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0128 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": 0.011 } ], "others": 0.0123, "total": 0.0004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.026226 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.02482 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.013566 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.012773 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": 0.011019 } ], "others_margin": 0.012303 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.909940719604492, "model_output": 6.9099, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0097, quality 0.809)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8368, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0.3276, "sweeper_actions": 0.3522, "sweeper_accurate": 0.217, "saves_inside_box": 1.567, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 0.5783, "duels_lost": 0.1029, "total_contest": 0.1122, "won_contest": 0.1122, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1385, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.778 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 46000000, "quality_factor": 0.8089, "boost_factor": 1.0097, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0092)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8291, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0.3276, "sweeper_actions": 0.3522, "sweeper_accurate": 0.217, "saves_inside_box": 1.567, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 0.5783, "duels_lost": 0.1029, "total_contest": 0.1122, "won_contest": 0.1122, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.778 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0092, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8368, "after": 2.8291 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8291, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0.3276, "sweeper_actions": 0.3522, "sweeper_accurate": 0.217, "saves_inside_box": 1.567, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 0.5783, "duels_lost": 0.1029, "total_contest": 0.1122, "won_contest": 0.1122, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.778 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8291, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0.3276, "sweeper_actions": 0.3522, "sweeper_accurate": 0.217, "saves_inside_box": 1.567, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 0.5783, "duels_lost": 0.1029, "total_contest": 0.1122, "won_contest": 0.1122, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.778, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4192, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Diego Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Diego Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4192 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8291, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0.3276, "sweeper_actions": 0.3522, "sweeper_accurate": 0.217, "saves_inside_box": 1.567, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 0.5783, "duels_lost": 0.1029, "total_contest": 0.1122, "won_contest": 0.1122, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.778, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4192, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.31, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Diego Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8291, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0.3276, "sweeper_actions": 0.3522, "sweeper_accurate": 0.217, "saves_inside_box": 1.567, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 0.5783, "duels_lost": 0.1029, "total_contest": 0.1122, "won_contest": 0.1122, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.778, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4192, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.7, "high_pressure_saves": 0.92, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Diego Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.5, "after": 11.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.31, "after": 2.7 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.14, "after": 0.92 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 89.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8291, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 0.3276, "sweeper_actions": 0.3522, "sweeper_accurate": 0.217, "saves_inside_box": 1.567, "possession_lost": 6.7542, "duels_won": 0.5783, "duels_lost": 0.1029, "total_contest": 0.1122, "won_contest": 0.1122, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1372, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2568, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.778, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4192, "shots_faced": 11.0, "expected_saves": 2.7, "high_pressure_saves": 0.92, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas, Diego Gómez", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 2.9791, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.151, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.4898, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8291, "goals_prevented": 0.0004, "rating": 6.9099, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.4461, "accurate_pass": 18.9814, "total_long_balls": 10.3193, "accurate_long_balls": 3.9735, "touches": 34.5522, "clearances": 0.8751, "ball_recovery": 6.5768, "high_claims": 1.2629, "punches": 0.7597, "aerial_won": 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"name": "rating", "margin": 0.026534 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.01708 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.011601 } ], "others_margin": -0.000577 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.98281717300415, "model_output": 6.9828, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1535 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0397 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0387, "total": 6.9828, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.153541 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.039736 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030425 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016062 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015393 } ], "others_margin": -0.038775 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 36, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0099, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.895, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1208, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4637, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3665, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.3868, "fouls_drawn": 0.5744, "blocks": 0.406, "goals": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "assists": 0.0497, "assist_rate": 0.0497, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.0261, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 19.9893, "total_progression": 51.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.1571, "key_pass": 0.5298, "shots_off_target": 0.4376 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0099, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0020)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4628, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.406, "goals": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 19.9893, "total_progression": 51.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.1571, "key_pass": 0.5298, "shots_off_target": 0.4376 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.002, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9499, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.3665, "after": 1.3732 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4636, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.406, "goals": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 19.9893, "total_progression": 51.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.1571, "key_pass": 0.5298, "shots_off_target": 0.4376 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4636, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.406, "goals": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 19.9893, "total_progression": 51.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.1571, "key_pass": 0.5298, "shots_off_target": 0.4376, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4636, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.406, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0025, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.0114, "ball_carries": 19.9893, "total_progression": 51.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.1571, "key_pass": 0.5298, "shots_off_target": 0.4376, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4636, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.406, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.0165, "ball_carries": 19.9893, "total_progression": 51.3545, "progressive_carries": 1.1571, "key_pass": 0.5298, "shots_off_target": 0.4376, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9638, "creation_factor": 1.1357 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0377, "after": 0.0546 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4636, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.406, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "expected_assists": 0.0546, 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finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4636, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, "challenges_lost": 0.5131, "fouls": 0.386, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.406, "goal_rate": 0.0006, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0496, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0036, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.026, "big_chances_created": 0.0675, "xgot": 0.0165, 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"effective_weight": 0.4898, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8932, "tackles": 1.6708, "tackles_won": 1.1186, "clearances": 2.3368, "aerial_won": 1.0142, "total_shots": 0.4636, "rating": 6.9828, "minutes": 85.49, "total_pass": 59.5757, "accurate_pass": 53.1285, "duels_won": 4.7871, "total_long_balls": 2.9671, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4231, "total_own_half_passes": 24.2146, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4066, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.3611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7219, "crosses_total": 1.3732, "crosses_accurate": 0.183, "touches": 80.631, "possession_lost": 11.2355, "dispossessed": 1.0506, "duels_lost": 2.8302, "aerial_lost": 0.2737, "total_contest": 1.4462, "won_contest": 0.839, "ball_recovery": 4.3146, 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} ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2188 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1484 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0927 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0756 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0608 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 1.0459, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.173389 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.120785 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.073719 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.064464 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.055028 } ], "others_margin": -0.02726 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5602883100509644, "model_output": 0.5603, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0647 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0171 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0161 } ], "others": -0.0151, "total": 0.5603, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064669 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.021604 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.019026 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017119 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.016126 } ], "others_margin": -0.015127 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.030498027801514, "model_output": 7.0305, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0768 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0758 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0272 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.014 } ], "others": 0.0021, "total": 7.0305, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.076794 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.075814 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.037403 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.02716 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.01402 } ], "others_margin": 0.002086 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0149, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2035, "tackles": 1.7705, "tackles_won": 1.052, "clearances": 3.0844, "aerial_won": 1.0615, "total_shots": 0.5687, "rating": 7.0305, "minutes": 88.69, "total_pass": 76.9206, "accurate_pass": 71.572, "duels_won": 5.0255, "total_long_balls": 4.1238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8736, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.7119, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.1541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.86, "crosses_total": 0.7072, "crosses_accurate": 0.203, "touches": 92.4132, "possession_lost": 7.0134, "dispossessed": 0.04, "duels_lost": 2.2125, "aerial_lost": 0.5188, "total_contest": 0.6462, "won_contest": 0.5191, "ball_recovery": 4.6621, "challenges_lost": 0.1888, "fouls": 1.3378, "fouls_drawn": 0.5684, "blocks": 0.6464, "goals": 0.0, 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1.0717 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3378, "after": 1.3191 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.5687, "after": 0.5608 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.5684, "after": 0.5605 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2005, "tackles": 1.7705, "tackles_won": 1.0717, "clearances": 3.0844, "aerial_won": 1.0615, "total_shots": 0.5659, "rating": 7.0305, "minutes": 88.69, "total_pass": 76.9206, "accurate_pass": 71.572, "duels_won": 5.0255, "total_long_balls": 4.1238, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8736, "total_own_half_passes": 39.7665, "accurate_own_half_passes": 37.7119, "total_opp_half_passes": 37.1541, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.86, "crosses_total": 0.7111, "crosses_accurate": 0.203, "touches": 92.4132, "possession_lost": 7.0134, "dispossessed": 0.04, "duels_lost": 2.2125, "aerial_lost": 0.5188, "total_contest": 0.6462, "won_contest": 0.5191, "ball_recovery": 4.6621, 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"dispossessed": 0.04, "duels_lost": 2.2125, "aerial_lost": 0.5188, "total_contest": 0.6462, "won_contest": 0.5191, "ball_recovery": 4.6621, "challenges_lost": 0.1888, "fouls": 1.3191, "fouls_drawn": 0.5605, "blocks": 0.6464, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0284, "expected_assists": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0069, "ball_carries": 25.1713, "total_progression": 73.0394, "progressive_carries": 1.1479, "key_pass": 0.2115, "shots_off_target": 0.3657, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 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4.6621, "challenges_lost": 0.1888, "fouls": 1.3191, "fouls_drawn": 0.5605, "blocks": 0.6464, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0411, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.2002, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.01, "ball_carries": 25.1713, "total_progression": 73.0394, "progressive_carries": 1.1479, "key_pass": 0.2115, "shots_off_target": 0.3657, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733, "opponent_faced": "Pascal Groß", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0284, "after": 0.0411 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0462, "after": 0.0669 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0597 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0323 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0206 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.016 } ], "others": 0.0164, "total": 0.8056, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.18052 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059658 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.032252 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.02056 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015983 } ], "others_margin": 0.016553 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.824037075042725, "model_output": 6.824, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.026 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0176, quality 0.869)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1182, "tackles": 1.7944, "tackles_won": 1.1964, "clearances": 2.4994, "aerial_won": 1.5437, "total_shots": 0.8198, "rating": 6.824, "minutes": 84.81, "total_pass": 51.4421, "accurate_pass": 45.0488, "duels_won": 5.8604, "total_long_balls": 2.7336, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1103, "total_own_half_passes": 23.5667, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.4578, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.8755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.591, "crosses_total": 0.2822, "crosses_accurate": 0.1588, "touches": 69.3187, "possession_lost": 8.8445, "dispossessed": 0.6708, "duels_lost": 4.2138, "aerial_lost": 2.334, "total_contest": 0.6048, "won_contest": 0.4666, "ball_recovery": 3.6096, "challenges_lost": 0.1845, "fouls": 0.8963, "fouls_drawn": 1.3226, "blocks": 0.4952, "goals": 0.115, 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}, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.82444167137146, "model_output": 0.8244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1325 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0593 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0461 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0243 } ], "others": -0.1346, "total": 0.8244, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132487 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.059333 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.046134 }, { "name": "accuratePass", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0122, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2155, "expected_assists": 0.1963, "assists": 0.1363, "assist_rate": 0.1363, "expected_goals": 0.1496, "goals": 0.2, "goal_rate": 0.2, "shots_on_target": 0.5493, "total_shots": 1.5702, "rating": 7.1491, "minutes": 86.38, "total_pass": 64.0769, "accurate_pass": 56.4299, "duels_won": 4.0629, "total_long_balls": 4.4577, "accurate_long_balls": 3.348, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.937, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.1215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35.4929, "crosses_total": 3.9545, "crosses_accurate": 1.018, "touches": 80.6721, "possession_lost": 13.9723, "dispossessed": 1.0647, "duels_lost": 5.2472, "aerial_won": 0.7711, "aerial_lost": 0.7887, "interceptions": 0.6792, "tackles_won": 0.4614, "tackles": 0.9555, "clearances": 0.6163, 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3.9545, "after": 3.9491 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2155, "expected_assists": 0.1963, "assists": 0.1361, "assist_rate": 0.1361, "expected_goals": 0.1496, "goals": 0.1997, "goal_rate": 0.1997, "shots_on_target": 0.5486, "total_shots": 1.5695, "rating": 7.1491, "minutes": 86.38, "total_pass": 64.0769, "accurate_pass": 56.4299, "duels_won": 4.0629, "total_long_balls": 4.4577, "accurate_long_balls": 3.348, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.937, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.1215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35.4929, "crosses_total": 3.9491, "crosses_accurate": 1.018, "touches": 80.6721, "possession_lost": 13.9723, "dispossessed": 1.0647, "duels_lost": 5.2472, "aerial_won": 0.7711, "aerial_lost": 0.7887, "interceptions": 0.6783, "tackles_won": 0.4608, "tackles": 0.9555, "clearances": 0.6163, "total_contest": 1.1337, "won_contest": 0.3906, 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0.1364 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1196, "after": 0.1266 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 2.2155, "expected_assists": 0.1963, "assist_rate": 0.1361, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1584, "goal_rate": 0.2114, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5808, "total_shots": 1.6616, "rating": 7.1491, "minutes": 86.38, "total_pass": 64.0769, "accurate_pass": 56.4299, "duels_won": 4.0629, "total_long_balls": 4.4577, "accurate_long_balls": 3.348, "total_own_half_passes": 22.9554, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.937, "total_opp_half_passes": 41.1215, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 35.4929, "crosses_total": 3.9491, "crosses_accurate": 1.018, "touches": 80.6721, "possession_lost": 13.9723, "dispossessed": 1.0647, "duels_lost": 5.2472, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.7887, 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"contribution": 0.1117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1247 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0916 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0524 } ], "others": 0.102, "total": 1.3708, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.247117 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.118438 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.117516 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.078259 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042141 } ], "others_margin": 0.077351 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.131306171417236, "model_output": 7.1313, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2903, "goal_rate": 0.2068, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8171, "total_shots": 1.887, "expected_assists": 0.2233, "key_pass": 1.3869, "rating": 7.1313, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 31.9682, "accurate_pass": 27.5352, "duels_won": 5.3658, "total_long_balls": 0.434, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0956, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.5287, "crosses_total": 2.4554, "crosses_accurate": 0.3957, "touches": 53.616, "possession_lost": 13.7261, "dispossessed": 2.1534, "duels_lost": 7.1271, "aerial_lost": 1.0736, "total_contest": 4.3302, "won_contest": 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1.0251, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2005, "after": 0.2903 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1542, "after": 0.2233 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "match_id": 16363867, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2288, "expected_assists": 0.3193, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0513, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0141, quality 0.871)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1681, "goals": 0.2134, "goal_rate": 0.2134, "shots_on_target": 0.6671, "total_shots": 2.5283, "expected_assists": 0.2184, "key_pass": 2.0639, "rating": 7.3443, "minutes": 83.03, "total_pass": 39.1127, "accurate_pass": 32.2032, "duels_won": 8.4785, "total_long_balls": 0.8068, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5691, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.4762, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.1727, "crosses_total": 3.0425, "crosses_accurate": 0.7388, "touches": 65.5063, "possession_lost": 18.58, "dispossessed": 1.7033, "duels_lost": 7.1735, "aerial_lost": 0.2322, "total_contest": 7.8935, "won_contest": 4.0916, "ball_recovery": 3.7422, "challenges_lost": 0.6035, "fouls": 0.8327, "fouls_drawn": 3.332, "assists": 0.2541, "assist_rate": 0.2541, "interceptions": 0.4394, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1679 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0735 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0464 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": -0.085, "total": 0.6481, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.216642 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089104 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.060726 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.057728 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.045785 } ], "others_margin": -0.123202 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.448570728302002, "model_output": 7.4486, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.900)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5438, "goals": 0.7891, "goal_rate": 0.7891, "shots_on_target": 1.4368, "total_shots": 2.9982, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0296, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.769, "fouls_drawn": 0.8044, "assists": 0.0678, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "interceptions": 0.1327, "tackles_won": 0.0485, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.651, "xgot": 0.9417, "offsides": 0.2144, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.5614 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 240000000, "quality_factor": 0.9, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5438, "goals": 0.7908, "goal_rate": 0.7908, "shots_on_target": 1.4459, "total_shots": 3.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assists": 0.0672, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.651, "xgot": 0.9417, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.5614 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9777, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.9982, "after": 3.0153 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.4368, "after": 1.4459 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.769, "after": 0.7621 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5438, "goals": 0.7908, "goal_rate": 0.7908, "shots_on_target": 1.4459, "total_shots": 3.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assists": 0.0672, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.651, "xgot": 0.9417, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.5614 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.636, "goals": 0.9248, "goal_rate": 0.9248, "shots_on_target": 1.691, "total_shots": 3.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assists": 0.0672, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.7613, "xgot": 1.1013, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.8261, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "skill_edge": 0.1013, "height_edge": 0.014, "attacker_skill": 0.9, "defender_skill": 0.6749, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "market_value": 69000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.89 }, { "player": "Lewis Dunk", "market_value": 3600000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4597 } ], "xg_override": 0.636 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 3.0153, "after": 3.5264 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.5614, "after": 1.8261 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 1.4459, "after": 1.691 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.9417, "after": 1.1013 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.7908, "after": 0.9248 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.651, "after": 0.7613 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.5438, "after": 0.636 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.636, "goal_rate": 0.9248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.691, "total_shots": 3.5264, "expected_assists": 0.0608, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.7613, "xgot": 1.1013, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.8261, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "goals", "before": 1.0, "after": 0 } ] }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9208, "goal_rate": 0.9248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.691, "total_shots": 3.5264, "expected_assists": 0.088, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.7613, "xgot": 1.5945, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.8261, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0578 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.636, "after": 0.9208 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0608, "after": 0.088 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 91.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9208, "goal_rate": 0.9248, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.691, "total_shots": 3.5264, "expected_assists": 0.088, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.7613, "xgot": 1.5945, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.8261, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0578, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 91.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9208, "goal_rate": 0.9248, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1.691, "total_shots": 3.5264, "expected_assists": 0.088, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.7613, "xgot": 1.5945, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.8261, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "opponent_faced": "Luka Vušković, Lewis Dunk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.6018, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.0578, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 2, "goal_probability": 0.6018, "goal_rate": 0.9248, "scorer_weight": 1.151, "squad_weight_total": 2.9791, "weight_share": 0.3864, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.151, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.4898, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.9208, "goal_rate": 0.9248, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1.691, "total_shots": 3.5264, "expected_assists": 0.088, "key_pass": 0.656, "rating": 7.4486, "minutes": 87.99, "total_pass": 11.8694, "accurate_pass": 7.9063, "duels_won": 3.3111, "total_long_balls": 0.3464, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2058, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.63, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.8785, "crosses_total": 0.0293, "crosses_accurate": 0.0113, "touches": 23.3412, "possession_lost": 6.7517, "dispossessed": 0.7722, "duels_lost": 4.0508, "aerial_lost": 1.8423, "total_contest": 1.2046, "won_contest": 0.5972, "ball_recovery": 1.7848, "challenges_lost": 0.2134, "fouls": 0.7621, "fouls_drawn": 0.8016, "assist_rate": 0.0672, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1315, "tackles_won": 0.0481, "tackles": 0.191, "clearances": 1.1514, "blocks": 0.2632, "big_chances_created": 0.3936, "big_chances_missed": 0.7613, "xgot": 1.5945, "offsides": 0.2125, "ball_carries": 5.4552, "total_progression": 21.1668, "progressive_carries": 1.2524, "shots_off_target": 1.8261, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, 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"contribution": -0.0129 } ], "others": 0.0219, "total": 0.6031, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057982 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": 0.040671 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.031496 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016219 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012878 } ], "others_margin": 0.021954 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.981944561004639, "model_output": 6.9819, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0129, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9187, "tackles": 0.839, "tackles_won": 0.5441, "clearances": 4.6796, "aerial_won": 2.192, "total_shots": 0.6109, "rating": 6.9819, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 84.1417, "accurate_pass": 77.9998, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 7.3806, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 48.442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2724, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7274, "crosses_total": 0.1655, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 92.4645, "possession_lost": 6.7819, "dispossessed": 0.0207, "duels_lost": 4.275, "aerial_lost": 2.292, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 2.9199, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.6517, "fouls_drawn": 0.1318, "blocks": 0.4544, "goals": 0.0135, 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"after": 1.6334 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.914, "tackles": 0.839, "tackles_won": 0.5435, "clearances": 4.6796, "aerial_won": 2.192, "total_shots": 0.6124, "rating": 6.9819, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 84.1417, "accurate_pass": 77.9998, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 7.3806, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 48.442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2724, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7274, "crosses_total": 0.1637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 92.4645, "possession_lost": 6.7819, "dispossessed": 0.0207, "duels_lost": 4.275, "aerial_lost": 2.292, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 2.9199, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.6334, "fouls_drawn": 0.1358, "blocks": 0.4544, "goals": 0.0134, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.3619, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0463, "ball_carries": 34.0178, "total_progression": 120.1012, "progressive_carries": 1.1749, "key_pass": 0.4476, "shots_off_target": 0.2505 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.914, "tackles": 0.839, "tackles_won": 0.5435, "clearances": 4.6796, "aerial_won": 2.192, "total_shots": 0.6124, "rating": 6.9819, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 84.1417, "accurate_pass": 77.9998, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 7.3806, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 48.442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2724, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7274, "crosses_total": 0.1637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 92.4645, "possession_lost": 6.7819, "dispossessed": 0.0207, "duels_lost": 4.275, "aerial_lost": 2.292, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 2.9199, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.6334, "fouls_drawn": 0.1358, "blocks": 0.4544, "goals": 0.0134, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.3619, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0463, "ball_carries": 34.0178, "total_progression": 120.1012, "progressive_carries": 1.1749, "key_pass": 0.4476, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.914, "tackles": 0.839, "tackles_won": 0.5435, "clearances": 4.6796, "aerial_won": 2.192, "total_shots": 0.6124, "rating": 6.9819, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 84.1417, "accurate_pass": 77.9998, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 7.3806, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 48.442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2724, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7274, "crosses_total": 0.1637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 92.4645, "possession_lost": 6.7819, "dispossessed": 0.0207, "duels_lost": 4.275, "aerial_lost": 2.292, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 2.9199, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.6334, "fouls_drawn": 0.1358, "blocks": 0.4544, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0579, "expected_assists": 0.0669, "shots_on_target": 0.3619, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0463, "ball_carries": 34.0178, "total_progression": 120.1012, "progressive_carries": 1.1749, "key_pass": 0.4476, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.914, "tackles": 0.839, "tackles_won": 0.5435, "clearances": 4.6796, "aerial_won": 2.192, "total_shots": 0.6124, "rating": 6.9819, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 84.1417, "accurate_pass": 77.9998, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 7.3806, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 48.442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2724, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7274, "crosses_total": 0.1637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 92.4645, "possession_lost": 6.7819, "dispossessed": 0.0207, "duels_lost": 4.275, "aerial_lost": 2.292, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 2.9199, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.6334, "fouls_drawn": 0.1358, "blocks": 0.4544, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "expected_assists": 0.0969, "shots_on_target": 0.3619, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.067, "ball_carries": 34.0178, "total_progression": 120.1012, "progressive_carries": 1.1749, "key_pass": 0.4476, "shots_off_target": 0.2505, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0579, "after": 0.0838 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0669, "after": 0.0969 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 87.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.914, "tackles": 0.839, "tackles_won": 0.5435, "clearances": 4.6796, "aerial_won": 2.192, "total_shots": 0.6124, "rating": 6.9819, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 84.1417, "accurate_pass": 77.9998, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 7.3806, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 48.442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2724, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7274, "crosses_total": 0.1637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 92.4645, "possession_lost": 6.7819, "dispossessed": 0.0207, "duels_lost": 4.275, "aerial_lost": 2.292, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 2.9199, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.6334, "fouls_drawn": 0.1358, "blocks": 0.4544, "goal_rate": 0.0134, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "expected_assists": 0.0969, "shots_on_target": 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58.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 87.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.914, "tackles": 0.839, "tackles_won": 0.5435, "clearances": 4.6796, "aerial_won": 2.192, "total_shots": 0.6124, "rating": 6.9819, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 84.1417, "accurate_pass": 77.9998, "duels_won": 3.0909, "total_long_balls": 7.3806, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0112, "total_own_half_passes": 48.442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46.2724, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6997, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.7274, "crosses_total": 0.1637, "crosses_accurate": 0.0561, "touches": 92.4645, "possession_lost": 6.7819, "dispossessed": 0.0207, "duels_lost": 4.275, "aerial_lost": 2.292, "total_contest": 0.3108, "won_contest": 0.1866, "ball_recovery": 2.9199, "challenges_lost": 0.2802, "fouls": 1.6334, 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1675 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0151 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0147 } ], "others": -0.0248, "total": 0.4143, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.216306 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.167518 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021952 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015143 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.014689 } ], "others_margin": -0.024896 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.733739376068115, "model_output": 6.7337, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], 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recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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4.0111, "total_progression": 37.8856, "progressive_carries": 0.8854, "key_pass": 0.1948, "shots_off_target": 0.1503, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.253, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.32 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.32, "projection_minutes": 19.96, "minutes_scale": 0.7674, "appearance_probability": 0.253 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2549, "tackles": 0.5448, "tackles_won": 0.3779, "clearances": 0.4825, "aerial_won": 0.207, "total_shots": 0.3209, "rating": 6.7337, "minutes": 15.32, "total_pass": 9.6799, "accurate_pass": 8.443, "duels_won": 1.111, "total_long_balls": 0.1239, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.6564, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7865, "crosses_total": 0.0033, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 13.6992, "possession_lost": 2.4895, "dispossessed": 0.6988, 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"trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-13", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-28", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-23", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 3.6127, "aerialWon": 2.0512, "totalClearance_p90": 4.0632, "totalTackle": 0.5721, "totalPass": 76.5684 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3896902799606323, "model_output": 0.3897, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", 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"importance": 0.2493 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0414 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0245 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3878, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7254 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0679 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0522 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0245 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0221 } ], "others": -0.1088, "total": 0.3869, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.739564 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.108075 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.091855 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.046233 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.04362 } ], "others_margin": -0.247977 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.26699596643447876, "model_output": 0.267, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4216 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0394 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0525, "total": 0.267, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.688538 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.097139 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.085352 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.058424 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.045486 } ], "others_margin": -0.179695 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.7666906118392944, "model_output": 1.7667, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0109 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1598 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0866 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0408 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0327 } ], "others": 0.1004, "total": 1.7667, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.885555 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.107197 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.053625 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.024302 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.019457 } ], "others_margin": 0.058557 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9617253541946411, "model_output": 0.9617, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.6945 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1608 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0265 } ], "others": 0.0958, "total": 0.9617, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.70392 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.212301 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.053975 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.052622 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.031095 } ], "others_margin": 0.10487 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.27471795678138733, "model_output": 0.2747, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1904 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0273 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.018 } ], "others": -0.0022, "total": 0.2747, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.190419 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.027345 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.027184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023711 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018004 } ], "others_margin": -0.002129 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.867847442626953, "model_output": 6.8678, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1461 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0589 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0357 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0499, "total": 6.8678, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.146105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.058896 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.035723 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019884 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017489 } ], "others_margin": -0.049913 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0115, quality 0.872)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3942, "tackles": 0.3913, "tackles_won": 0.2701, "clearances": 1.787, "aerial_won": 0.9728, "total_shots": 0.2779, "rating": 6.8678, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 77.4489, "accurate_pass": 72.4878, "duels_won": 4.2348, "total_long_balls": 3.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7163, "total_own_half_passes": 40.5824, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.5305, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.8665, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.9574, "crosses_total": 0.2631, "crosses_accurate": 0.1362, "touches": 88.4567, "possession_lost": 6.4081, "dispossessed": 0.4831, "duels_lost": 2.6802, "aerial_lost": 1.1439, "total_contest": 0.4906, "won_contest": 0.4808, "ball_recovery": 3.0448, "challenges_lost": 0.2534, "fouls": 0.8999, "fouls_drawn": 1.1006, "blocks": 0.4724, "goals": 0.0662, "goal_rate": 0.0662, "assists": 0.1202, "assist_rate": 0.1202, "expected_goals": 0.0765, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.107, "big_chances_created": 0.0595, "xgot": 0.0362, "ball_carries": 26.7217, "total_progression": 100.2912, "progressive_carries": 1.257, "key_pass": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.1708 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 71000000, "quality_factor": 0.8721, "boost_factor": 1.0115, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3933, "tackles": 0.3913, "tackles_won": 0.2713, "clearances": 1.787, "aerial_won": 0.9728, "total_shots": 0.2772, "rating": 6.8678, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 77.4489, "accurate_pass": 72.4878, "duels_won": 4.2348, "total_long_balls": 3.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7163, "total_own_half_passes": 40.5824, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.5305, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.8665, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33.9574, "crosses_total": 0.2607, "crosses_accurate": 0.1362, "touches": 88.4567, "possession_lost": 6.4081, "dispossessed": 0.4831, "duels_lost": 2.6802, "aerial_lost": 1.1439, "total_contest": 0.4906, "won_contest": 0.4808, "ball_recovery": 3.0448, "challenges_lost": 0.2534, "fouls": 0.8936, "fouls_drawn": 1.0934, "blocks": 0.4724, "goals": 0.0665, "goal_rate": 0.0665, "assists": 0.1191, "assist_rate": 0.1191, "expected_goals": 0.0765, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "shots_on_target": 0.1069, "big_chances_created": 0.0595, "xgot": 0.0362, "ball_carries": 26.7217, "total_progression": 100.2912, "progressive_carries": 1.257, "key_pass": 0.5772, "shots_off_target": 0.1708 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.1006, "after": 1.0934 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8999, "after": 0.8936 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 15.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.25)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3342, "tackles": 0.3325, "tackles_won": 0.2305, "clearances": 1.5183, "aerial_won": 0.8265, "total_shots": 0.2359, "rating": 6.8678, "minutes": 15.29, "total_pass": 65.8033, "accurate_pass": 61.5882, "duels_won": 3.598, "total_long_balls": 2.8458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7369, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8514, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.1157, "touches": 75.1559, "possession_lost": 5.4445, "dispossessed": 0.4831, "duels_lost": 2.2772, "aerial_lost": 1.1439, "total_contest": 0.4168, "won_contest": 0.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.587, "challenges_lost": 0.2534, "fouls": 0.7592, "fouls_drawn": 0.929, "blocks": 0.4014, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "assists": 0.1012, "assist_rate": 0.1012, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.043, "shots_on_target": 0.0908, "big_chances_created": 0.0506, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 22.7037, "total_progression": 85.2109, "progressive_carries": 1.068, "key_pass": 0.4904, "shots_off_target": 0.1451, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.29, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8496, "appearance_probability": 0.252 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3342, "tackles": 0.3325, "tackles_won": 0.2305, "clearances": 1.5183, "aerial_won": 0.8265, "total_shots": 0.2359, "rating": 6.8678, "minutes": 15.29, "total_pass": 65.8033, "accurate_pass": 61.5882, "duels_won": 3.598, "total_long_balls": 2.8458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7369, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8514, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.1157, "touches": 75.1559, "possession_lost": 5.4445, "dispossessed": 0.4831, "duels_lost": 2.2772, "aerial_lost": 1.1439, "total_contest": 0.4168, "won_contest": 0.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.587, "challenges_lost": 0.2534, "fouls": 0.7592, "fouls_drawn": 0.929, "blocks": 0.4014, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "assists": 0.1012, "assist_rate": 0.1012, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.043, "shots_on_target": 0.0908, "big_chances_created": 0.0506, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 22.7037, "total_progression": 85.2109, "progressive_carries": 1.068, "key_pass": 0.4904, "shots_off_target": 0.1451, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3342, "tackles": 0.3325, "tackles_won": 0.2305, "clearances": 1.5183, "aerial_won": 0.8265, "total_shots": 0.2359, "rating": 6.8678, "minutes": 15.29, "total_pass": 65.8033, "accurate_pass": 61.5882, "duels_won": 3.598, "total_long_balls": 2.8458, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4582, "total_own_half_passes": 34.4802, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.7369, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 28.8514, "crosses_total": 0.2215, "crosses_accurate": 0.1157, "touches": 75.1559, "possession_lost": 5.4445, "dispossessed": 0.4831, "duels_lost": 2.2772, "aerial_lost": 1.1439, "total_contest": 0.4168, "won_contest": 0.4085, "ball_recovery": 2.587, "challenges_lost": 0.2534, "fouls": 0.7592, "fouls_drawn": 0.929, "blocks": 0.4014, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.043, "shots_on_target": 0.0908, "big_chances_created": 0.0506, "xgot": 0.0308, "ball_carries": 22.7037, "total_progression": 85.2109, "progressive_carries": 1.068, "key_pass": 0.4904, "shots_off_target": 0.1451, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.252, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.29, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.252, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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Bouaddi": { "player_id": 1564180, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 185, "market_value": 98000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 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"tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", 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"total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 21, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1194, "combined_rank_score": 525.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 715.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7501, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.281528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205218 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.080212 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.059292 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034387 } ], "others_margin": -0.132328 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750127792358398, "model_output": 6.7501, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1064 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.7501, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.106366 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029825 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020841 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.017986 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014607 } ], "others_margin": -0.011879 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0646, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3547, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "assists": 0.0472, "assist_rate": 0.0472, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.0793, "total_shots": 0.498, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 20.4736, "accurate_pass": 18.6528, "duels_won": 0.3517, "total_long_balls": 2.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1267, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0936, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.559, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8925, "possession_lost": 1.8209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3517, "won_contest": 0.3517, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7035, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4019, "total_progression": 32.0496, "progressive_carries": 0.598, "shots_off_target": 0.4187 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 98000000, "quality_factor": 0.8926, "boost_factor": 1.0646, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3547, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0791, "total_shots": 0.4968, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 20.4736, "accurate_pass": 18.6528, "duels_won": 0.3517, "total_long_balls": 2.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1267, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0936, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.559, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8925, "possession_lost": 1.8209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3021, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3517, "won_contest": 0.3517, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4128, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7035, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4019, "total_progression": 32.0496, "progressive_carries": 0.598, "shots_off_target": 0.4187 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1562, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.1 to 15.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3948, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "expected_goals": 0.0236, "goals": 0.0327, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "total_shots": 0.5541, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.65, "total_pass": 22.7889, "accurate_pass": 20.7622, "duels_won": 0.3915, "total_long_balls": 2.4979, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2541, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0089, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.4813, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3363, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3915, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7831, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.352, "total_progression": 35.674, "progressive_carries": 0.6656, "shots_off_target": 0.466, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.65, "projection_minutes": 14.06, "minutes_scale": 1.1131, "appearance_probability": 0.729 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3948, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "assists": 0.0524, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "expected_goals": 0.0236, "goals": 0.0327, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "total_shots": 0.5541, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.65, "total_pass": 22.7889, "accurate_pass": 20.7622, "duels_won": 0.3915, "total_long_balls": 2.4979, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2541, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0089, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.4813, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3363, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3915, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7831, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.352, "total_progression": 35.674, "progressive_carries": 0.6656, "shots_off_target": 0.466, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3948, "expected_assists": 0.0303, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0236, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "total_shots": 0.5541, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.65, "total_pass": 22.7889, "accurate_pass": 20.7622, "duels_won": 0.3915, "total_long_balls": 2.4979, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2541, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0089, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.4813, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3363, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3915, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7831, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.352, "total_progression": 35.674, "progressive_carries": 0.6656, "shots_off_target": 0.466, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3948, "expected_assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "total_shots": 0.5541, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.65, "total_pass": 22.7889, "accurate_pass": 20.7622, "duels_won": 0.3915, "total_long_balls": 2.4979, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2541, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0089, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.4813, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3363, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3915, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7831, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.352, "total_progression": 35.674, "progressive_carries": 0.6656, "shots_off_target": 0.466, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1236, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.729 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3948, "expected_assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "total_shots": 0.5541, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.65, "total_pass": 22.7889, "accurate_pass": 20.7622, "duels_won": 0.3915, "total_long_balls": 2.4979, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2541, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0089, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.4813, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3363, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3915, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7831, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.352, "total_progression": 35.674, "progressive_carries": 0.6656, "shots_off_target": 0.466, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1236, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1194, "fifa_rank": 715.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3948, "expected_assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "total_shots": 0.5541, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.65, "total_pass": 22.7889, "accurate_pass": 20.7622, "duels_won": 0.3915, "total_long_balls": 2.4979, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2541, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0089, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.4813, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3363, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3915, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7831, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.352, "total_progression": 35.674, "progressive_carries": 0.6656, "shots_off_target": 0.466, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0245, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1236, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0245, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "scorer_weight": 0.028, "squad_weight_total": 2.9791, "weight_share": 0.0094, "finishing_factor": 1.1236, "appearance_weight": 0.729, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.151, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.4898, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3948, "expected_assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.088, "total_shots": 0.5541, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 15.65, "total_pass": 22.7889, "accurate_pass": 20.7622, "duels_won": 0.3915, "total_long_balls": 2.4979, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2541, "total_own_half_passes": 9.4005, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.0089, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.3884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7531, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.4813, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4606, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3363, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3915, "won_contest": 0.3915, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4595, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7831, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.352, "total_progression": 35.674, "progressive_carries": 0.6656, "shots_off_target": 0.466, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0245, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0313, "finishing_factor": 1.1236, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0313, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "provider_weight": 0.04, "squad_weight_total": 1.8886, "weight_share": 0.0212, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.729, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.358, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.358, "runner_up": "Iliman Ndiaye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2791, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] }, "Phil Foden": { "player_id": 859765, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 171, "market_value": 66000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1011, "assist_rate": 0.1475, 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"margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091565 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.046495 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.043661 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020714 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.017616 } ], "others_margin": 0.045375 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8828, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antoine Semenyo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Renê", "ranking": 352 }, { "player_name": "Azizbek Amanov", "ranking": 353 }, { "player_name": "Aboubacar Toungara", "ranking": 354 }, { "player_name": "Sharof Mukhiddinov", "ranking": 355 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Cunha", "ranking": 356 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cho Sang-Jun", "ranking": 358 }, { "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking": 359 }, { "player_name": "Riccardo Calafiori", "ranking": 360 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Schick", "ranking": 361 }, { "player_name": "Tomás Alarcón", "ranking": 362 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", 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"total": 0.9468, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.410887 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.168892 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.138407 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.075993 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.063996 } ], "others_margin": 0.27443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.882751941680908, "model_output": 6.8828, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0777 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0461 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0266 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0256 } ], "others": 0.0583, "total": 6.8828, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077711 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.046073 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.030408 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.02657 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025574 } ], "others_margin": 0.058334 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0117, quality 0.886)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0589, "goals": 0.0889, "goal_rate": 0.0889, "shots_on_target": 0.2416, "total_shots": 0.6947, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "key_pass": 0.9579, "rating": 6.8828, "minutes": 17.67, "total_pass": 26.1947, "accurate_pass": 23.1381, "duels_won": 2.7499, "total_long_balls": 0.5277, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0805, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.6663, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4397, "crosses_total": 1.9856, "crosses_accurate": 0.3234, "touches": 41.4942, "possession_lost": 10.7957, "dispossessed": 1.6785, "duels_lost": 5.4974, "aerial_lost": 0.5479, "total_contest": 2.9048, "won_contest": 1.0061, "ball_recovery": 2.2398, "challenges_lost": 0.4249, "fouls": 1.0782, "fouls_drawn": 0.5359, "assists": 0.2641, "assist_rate": 0.2641, "interceptions": 0.2495, 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"importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2088 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0726 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0514 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0512 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0448 } ], "others": 0.116, "total": 0.7187, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.357907 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.139404 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.088202 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.087844 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.077234 } ], "others_margin": 0.176004 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729854106903076, "model_output": 6.7299, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0832 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0213 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0138 } ], "others": 0.0023, "total": 6.7299, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.083206 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021308 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018078 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.015882 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013784 } ], "others_margin": 0.002266 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0.3826, "total_shots": 0.8452, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.7289, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.5014, "accurate_pass": 10.11, "duels_won": 0.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2805, "crosses_total": 1.5322, "crosses_accurate": 0.581, "touches": 17.7482, "possession_lost": 3.4593, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.2236, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 0.7825, "won_contest": 0.2717, "ball_recovery": 1.0329, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.2177, "fouls_drawn": 0.3114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2861, "clearances": 0.4796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1216, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2434, "total_progression": 37.4692, "progressive_carries": 1.0312, "shots_off_target": 0.4625 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1236, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 18.41, "minutes_scale": 1.4554, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1236, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1196, "after": 0.1086 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0851, "after": 0.0773 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 257, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0997, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0997, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "scorer_weight": 0.1112, "squad_weight_total": 2.9791, "weight_share": 0.0373, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.151, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.4898, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0997, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0727, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0727, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0618, "squad_weight_total": 1.8886, "weight_share": 0.0327, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.358, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.358, "runner_up": "Iliman Ndiaye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2791, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "player_id": 1564180, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 185, "market_value": 98000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.032, "assist_rate": 0.0524, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0249, "goal_rate": 0.0327, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 16, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 2.0268, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.729, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.65, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0245, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0313, "finishing_factor": 1.1236, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 68, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363878, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0234, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363263, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Coventry City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.7, 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"26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1194, "combined_rank_score": 525.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 336.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 715.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7501, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking": 1189 }, { "player_name": "Jonathan David", "ranking": 1190 }, { "player_name": "Gerard Martín", "ranking": 1191 }, { "player_name": "Keelan Lebon", "ranking": 1192 }, { "player_name": "Sukhrob Nurullaev", "ranking": 1193 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Choi Hee-won", "ranking": 1195 }, { "player_name": "Murodbek Rahmatov", "ranking": 1196 }, { "player_name": "Philipp Lienhart", "ranking": 1197 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0369 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0029 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0017 } ], "others": -0.004, "total": 0.0277, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.494661 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.234008 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.2336 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.082165 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05137 } ], "others_margin": -0.131758 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.07447148859500885, "model_output": 0.0745, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1362 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0485 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.013 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0067 } ], "others": -0.0201, "total": 0.0745, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.559885 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.311187 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.151608 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.120754 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.067992 } ], "others_margin": -0.239183 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4677732586860657, "model_output": 0.4678, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2815 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2052 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0802 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0593 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0344 } ], "others": -0.1323, "total": 0.4678, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.281528 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.205218 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.080212 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.059292 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034387 } ], "others_margin": -0.132328 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.750127792358398, "model_output": 6.7501, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1064 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.018 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0146 } ], "others": -0.0119, "total": 6.7501, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.106366 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.029825 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020841 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.017986 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014607 } ], "others_margin": -0.011879 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0646, quality 0.893)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3547, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "assists": 0.0472, "assist_rate": 0.0472, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goals": 0.0295, "goal_rate": 0.0295, "shots_on_target": 0.0793, "total_shots": 0.498, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 20.4736, "accurate_pass": 18.6528, "duels_won": 0.3517, "total_long_balls": 2.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1267, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0936, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.559, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8925, "possession_lost": 1.8209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.299, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3517, "won_contest": 0.3517, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7035, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4019, "total_progression": 32.0496, "progressive_carries": 0.598, "shots_off_target": 0.4187 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 98000000, "quality_factor": 0.8926, "boost_factor": 1.0646, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0024)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3547, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0212, "goals": 0.0294, "goal_rate": 0.0294, "shots_on_target": 0.0791, "total_shots": 0.4968, "rating": 6.7501, "minutes": 14.06, "total_pass": 20.4736, "accurate_pass": 18.6528, "duels_won": 0.3517, "total_long_balls": 2.2441, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1267, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4454, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.0936, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.0282, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.559, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 22.8925, "possession_lost": 1.8209, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3021, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3517, "won_contest": 0.3517, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4128, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.7035, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.4019, "total_progression": 32.0496, "progressive_carries": 0.598, "shots_off_target": 0.4187 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0024, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1562, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.1 to 15.7 expected minutes 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role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.817)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goals": 0.0849, "goal_rate": 0.0849, "shots_on_target": 0.3826, "total_shots": 0.8452, "expected_assists": 0.0585, "key_pass": 0.7289, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 18.41, "total_pass": 11.5014, "accurate_pass": 10.11, "duels_won": 0.9724, "total_long_balls": 0.127, "accurate_long_balls": 0.127, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1146, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2805, "crosses_total": 1.5322, "crosses_accurate": 0.581, "touches": 17.7482, "possession_lost": 3.4593, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.2236, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 0.7825, "won_contest": 0.2717, "ball_recovery": 1.0329, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.2177, "fouls_drawn": 0.3114, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3959, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.2861, "clearances": 0.4796, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1216, "xgot": 0.0632, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2434, "total_progression": 37.4692, "progressive_carries": 1.0312, "shots_off_target": 0.4625 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 48000000, "quality_factor": 0.8168, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.4 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1236, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.79, "projection_minutes": 18.41, "minutes_scale": 1.4554, "appearance_probability": 0.627 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goals": 0.1236, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1196, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0851, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.092, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.62 (squad xG sum 1.8062, xG scale 1.4478, xA scale 1.4478, team xA 1.90 = 0.73 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.615, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8062, "squad_xa_sum": 1.3129, "team_expected_assists": 1.9009, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7269, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4478, "xa_scale": 1.4478, "opponent_lambda": 1.154, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.627 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1196, "after": 0.1086 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0851, "after": 0.0773 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 257, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0997, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0997, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "scorer_weight": 0.1112, "squad_weight_total": 2.9791, "weight_share": 0.0373, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 1.151, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Erling Haaland", "weight": 1.151, "already": 1, "effective_weight": 0.4898, "runner_up": "Rayan Cherki", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.42 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1086, "goal_rate": 0.1236, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5569, "total_shots": 1.2301, "expected_assists": 0.0773, "key_pass": 1.0609, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 26.79, "total_pass": 16.7396, "accurate_pass": 14.7145, "duels_won": 1.4153, "total_long_balls": 0.1848, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1848, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0518, "crosses_total": 2.23, "crosses_accurate": 0.8456, "touches": 25.8314, "possession_lost": 5.0348, "dispossessed": 0.1418, "duels_lost": 1.7809, "aerial_lost": 0.2899, "total_contest": 1.1389, "won_contest": 0.3954, "ball_recovery": 1.5033, "challenges_lost": 0.0635, "fouls": 0.3168, "fouls_drawn": 0.4532, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5762, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.4164, "clearances": 0.698, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.177, "xgot": 0.0835, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.0869, "total_progression": 54.5341, "progressive_carries": 1.5008, "shots_off_target": 0.6731, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.321, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0997, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0727, "finishing_factor": 1.0236, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0727, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0618, "squad_weight_total": 1.8886, "weight_share": 0.0327, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.627, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Jérémy Doku", "weight": 0.358, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.358, "runner_up": "Iliman Ndiaye", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2791, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Erling Haaland" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.62, "expected_assists": 1.9, "total_shots": 21, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 616, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 7.12, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7 } }, "Brighton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bart Verbruggen": { "player_id": 994363, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0234, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 30, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 47, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.626, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.7236, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 26, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.7469, "shots_faced": 24.8, "expected_saves": 6.06, "high_pressure_saves": 2.09, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363898, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.7495 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363883, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.052 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.887, "goals_prevented": -0.0234, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.075, "accurate_pass": 29.5415, "total_long_balls": 18.1347, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7953, "touches": 46.828, "clearances": 1.0185, "ball_recovery": 7.2186, "high_claims": 0.5321, "punches": 0.626, "aerial_won": 0.469, "sweeper_actions": 0.9086, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8689, "saves_inside_box": 2.0808, "possession_lost": 10.7236, "duels_won": 0.5515, "duels_lost": 0.0699, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0046, "fouls_drawn": 0.0801, "total_own_half_passes": 25.8348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3868, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.7469, "shots_faced": 26.1, "expected_saves": 6.39, "high_pressure_saves": 2.2, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.887, "goals_prevented": -0.0234, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.075, "accurate_pass": 29.5415, "total_long_balls": 18.1347, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7953, "touches": 46.828, "clearances": 1.0185, "ball_recovery": 7.2186, "high_claims": 0.5321, "punches": 0.626, "aerial_won": 0.469, "sweeper_actions": 0.9086, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8689, "saves_inside_box": 2.0808, "possession_lost": 10.7236, "duels_won": 0.5515, "duels_lost": 0.0699, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0046, "fouls_drawn": 0.0801, "total_own_half_passes": 25.8348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3868, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.7469, "shots_faced": 24.8, "expected_saves": 6.06, "high_pressure_saves": 2.09, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.154, "squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 26.1, "after": 24.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 6.39, "after": 6.06 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 2.2, "after": 2.09 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.887, "goals_prevented": -0.0234, "rating": 6.9981, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.075, "accurate_pass": 29.5415, "total_long_balls": 18.1347, "accurate_long_balls": 7.7953, "touches": 46.828, "clearances": 1.0185, "ball_recovery": 7.2186, "high_claims": 0.5321, "punches": 0.626, "aerial_won": 0.469, "sweeper_actions": 0.9086, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8689, "saves_inside_box": 2.0808, "possession_lost": 10.7236, "duels_won": 0.5515, "duels_lost": 0.0699, "total_contest": 0.0002, "won_contest": 0.0002, "fouls": 0.0046, "fouls_drawn": 0.0801, "total_own_half_passes": 25.8348, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.3868, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 2.7469, "shots_faced": 24.8, "expected_saves": 6.06, "high_pressure_saves": 2.09, "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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0.040205 } ], "others_margin": 0.019953 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.2933944463729858, "model_output": 1.2934, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4975 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0578 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.047 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0266 } ], "others": 0.1486, "total": 1.2934, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.497495 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.057756 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.047044 }, { "name": "rating", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.445)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9863, "tackles": 1.1317, "tackles_won": 0.7237, "clearances": 4.6246, "aerial_won": 2.5828, "total_shots": 0.5043, "rating": 7.1026, "minutes": 89.88, "total_pass": 83.8291, "accurate_pass": 76.6187, "duels_won": 4.601, "total_long_balls": 6.0479, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8399, "total_own_half_passes": 50.8585, "accurate_own_half_passes": 49.1187, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.9706, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.5, "crosses_total": 0.1765, "crosses_accurate": 0.005, "touches": 95.4014, "possession_lost": 8.3031, "dispossessed": 0.2244, "duels_lost": 2.917, "aerial_lost": 1.5515, "total_contest": 0.1041, "won_contest": 0.1041, "ball_recovery": 4.4357, "challenges_lost": 0.6809, "fouls": 0.466, "fouls_drawn": 0.6837, "blocks": 0.5423, "goals": 0.1524, 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0.4759 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.1765, "after": 0.1844 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9864, "tackles": 1.1317, "tackles_won": 0.7263, "clearances": 4.6246, "aerial_won": 2.5828, "total_shots": 0.5025, "rating": 7.1026, "minutes": 89.88, "total_pass": 83.8291, "accurate_pass": 76.6187, "duels_won": 4.601, "total_long_balls": 6.0479, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8399, "total_own_half_passes": 50.8585, "accurate_own_half_passes": 49.1187, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.9706, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.5, "crosses_total": 0.1844, "crosses_accurate": 0.005, "touches": 95.4014, "possession_lost": 8.3031, "dispossessed": 0.2244, "duels_lost": 2.917, "aerial_lost": 1.5515, "total_contest": 0.1041, "won_contest": 0.1041, "ball_recovery": 4.4357, "challenges_lost": 0.6809, "fouls": 0.4759, "fouls_drawn": 0.6867, "blocks": 0.5423, "goals": 0.1509, "goal_rate": 0.1509, 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}, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Erling Haaland", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9864, "tackles": 1.1317, "tackles_won": 0.7263, "clearances": 4.6246, "aerial_won": 2.5828, "total_shots": 0.5025, "rating": 7.1026, "minutes": 89.88, "total_pass": 83.8291, "accurate_pass": 76.6187, "duels_won": 4.601, "total_long_balls": 6.0479, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8399, "total_own_half_passes": 50.8585, "accurate_own_half_passes": 49.1187, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.9706, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.5, "crosses_total": 0.1844, "crosses_accurate": 0.005, "touches": 95.4014, "possession_lost": 8.3031, "dispossessed": 0.2244, "duels_lost": 2.917, "aerial_lost": 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"scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9864, "tackles": 1.1317, "tackles_won": 0.7263, "clearances": 4.6246, "aerial_won": 2.5828, "total_shots": 0.5025, "rating": 7.1026, "minutes": 89.88, "total_pass": 83.8291, "accurate_pass": 76.6187, "duels_won": 4.601, "total_long_balls": 6.0479, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8399, "total_own_half_passes": 50.8585, "accurate_own_half_passes": 49.1187, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.9706, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.5, "crosses_total": 0.1844, "crosses_accurate": 0.005, "touches": 95.4014, "possession_lost": 8.3031, "dispossessed": 0.2244, "duels_lost": 2.917, "aerial_lost": 1.5515, "total_contest": 0.1041, "won_contest": 0.1041, "ball_recovery": 4.4357, 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"squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.065169 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.034292 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023026 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.022258 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011318 } ], "others_margin": 0.007132 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.973315715789795, "model_output": 6.9733, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0698 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0518 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0182 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0176 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 6.9733, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.069846 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.051839 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022957 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.018156 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0176 } ], "others_margin": -0.004306 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0067, quality 0.616)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0861, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6681, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6476, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.708, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0602, "fouls_drawn": 1.0689, "blocks": 0.28, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1535, "assist_rate": 0.1535, "expected_goals": 0.0159, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "shots_on_target": 0.0608, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0256, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18500000, "quality_factor": 0.6161, "boost_factor": 1.0067, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 20, "history_shrink": 0.2, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0173)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.644, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1508, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "expected_goals": 0.0159, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "shots_on_target": 0.0673, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0256, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0173, "history_matches": 20, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8746, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.0602, "after": 1.0721 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.708, "after": 2.699 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.0608, "after": 0.0673 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6541, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1508, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "expected_goals": 0.0159, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "shots_on_target": 0.0673, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0256, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6541, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1508, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "expected_goals": 0.0159, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "shots_on_target": 0.0673, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0256, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6541, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0159, "expected_assists": 0.0788, "shots_on_target": 0.0673, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0256, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6541, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.0673, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.154, "squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0788, "after": 0.0734 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6541, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.0673, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1548, "fifa_rank": 1090.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6541, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.0673, "big_chances_created": 0.2546, "xgot": 0.0238, "ball_carries": 17.9309, "total_progression": 69.9215, "progressive_carries": 0.8683, "key_pass": 1.1174, "shots_off_target": 0.5868, "opponent_faced": "Iliman Ndiaye", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0147, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0118, "squad_weight_total": 1.2134, "weight_share": 0.0098, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3139, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3139, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1697 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.09, "tackles": 1.0806, "tackles_won": 0.6641, "clearances": 3.6057, "aerial_won": 1.2492, "total_shots": 0.6541, "rating": 6.9733, "minutes": 78.71, "total_pass": 55.0087, "accurate_pass": 46.3024, "duels_won": 2.9252, "total_long_balls": 6.9699, "accurate_long_balls": 3.7813, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4954, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.9188, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.5133, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 22.3836, "crosses_total": 2.699, "crosses_accurate": 0.5787, "touches": 71.2346, "possession_lost": 12.1096, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.3618, "aerial_lost": 1.3204, "total_contest": 0.2036, "won_contest": 0.0424, "ball_recovery": 3.5641, "challenges_lost": 0.8201, "fouls": 1.0721, "fouls_drawn": 1.0731, "blocks": 0.28, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1508, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "expected_assists": 0.0734, 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"margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.082555 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.062483 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.036476 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.030901 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023417 } ], "others_margin": 0.062833 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 26, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.035365 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028572 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.017151 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016231 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015183 } ], "others_margin": -0.039268 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5132, "expected_assists": 0.0372, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.0609, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2422, "total_shots": 0.7195, "rating": 6.8321, "minutes": 80.49, "total_pass": 39.8123, "accurate_pass": 33.2864, "duels_won": 4.925, "total_long_balls": 2.2651, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2071, "total_own_half_passes": 17.5806, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.0103, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.2316, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.2761, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 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], "others_margin": 0.135406 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.101699113845825, "model_output": 2.1017, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7115 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.176 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0685 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0557 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.054 } ], "others": 0.0543, "total": 2.1017, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.711523 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.175987 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0076, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2812, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "assists": 0.1188, "assist_rate": 0.1188, "expected_goals": 0.1827, "goals": 0.1965, "goal_rate": 0.1965, "shots_on_target": 0.6991, "total_shots": 2.1177, "rating": 6.9676, "minutes": 83.76, "total_pass": 32.3169, "accurate_pass": 23.6925, "duels_won": 6.2077, "total_long_balls": 1.4675, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6679, "total_own_half_passes": 8.3772, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.2239, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9397, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.4685, "crosses_total": 1.8782, "crosses_accurate": 0.2594, "touches": 51.3715, "possession_lost": 14.9943, "dispossessed": 1.0455, "duels_lost": 6.7654, "aerial_won": 2.9534, "aerial_lost": 2.4564, "interceptions": 0.9282, "tackles_won": 1.1542, "tackles": 2.2607, "clearances": 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0203 } ], "others": -0.0459, "total": 0.4582, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.295198 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.131404 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.129433 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.054853 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.039426 } ], "others_margin": -0.095378 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.8401706218719482, "model_output": 1.8402, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.6553 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1609 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0469 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0346 } ], "others": 0.0748, "total": 1.8402, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.655347 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.160891 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.046923 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044841 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.034559 } ], "others_margin": 0.074681 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.865344047546387, "model_output": 6.8653, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0335 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0066 } ], "others": -0.0282, "total": 6.8653, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033509 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026856 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015391 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014051 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.006569 } ], "others_margin": -0.028155 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "assists": 0.0689, "assist_rate": 0.0689, "expected_goals": 0.1571, "goals": 0.1603, "goal_rate": 0.1603, "shots_on_target": 0.463, "total_shots": 1.8591, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4905, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.302, "aerial_lost": 1.4137, "interceptions": 0.4791, "tackles_won": 0.6832, "tackles": 1.2798, "clearances": 0.6496, "total_contest": 1.3003, "won_contest": 0.4753, "challenges_lost": 0.3381, "fouls": 0.5457, "fouls_drawn": 1.3703, "blocks": 0.0883, "big_chances_created": 0.022, "big_chances_missed": 0.154, "xgot": 0.2052, "ball_carries": 12.9167, "total_progression": 29.9062, "progressive_carries": 0.6641, "shots_off_target": 1.3961 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0037)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "assists": 0.0686, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "expected_goals": 0.1571, "goals": 0.1597, "goal_rate": 0.1597, "shots_on_target": 0.4613, "total_shots": 1.8621, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.302, "aerial_lost": 1.4137, "interceptions": 0.4773, "tackles_won": 0.6807, "tackles": 1.2798, "clearances": 0.6496, "total_contest": 1.3003, "won_contest": 0.4753, "challenges_lost": 0.3381, "fouls": 0.5536, "fouls_drawn": 1.3702, "blocks": 0.0883, "big_chances_created": 0.022, "big_chances_missed": 0.154, "xgot": 0.2052, "ball_carries": 12.9167, "total_progression": 29.9062, "progressive_carries": 0.6641, "shots_off_target": 1.3961 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0037, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9353, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5457, "after": 0.5536 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "assists": 0.0686, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "expected_goals": 0.1571, "goals": 0.1597, "goal_rate": 0.1597, "shots_on_target": 0.4613, "total_shots": 1.8621, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.302, "aerial_lost": 1.4137, "interceptions": 0.4773, "tackles_won": 0.6807, "tackles": 1.2798, "clearances": 0.6496, "total_contest": 1.3003, "won_contest": 0.4753, "challenges_lost": 0.3381, "fouls": 0.5536, "fouls_drawn": 1.3702, "blocks": 0.0883, "big_chances_created": 0.022, "big_chances_missed": 0.154, "xgot": 0.2052, "ball_carries": 12.9167, "total_progression": 29.9062, "progressive_carries": 0.6641, "shots_off_target": 1.3961 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "assists": 0.0686, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "expected_goals": 0.1409, "goals": 0.1433, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "shots_on_target": 0.4138, "total_shots": 1.6705, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.4137, "interceptions": 0.4773, "tackles_won": 0.6807, "tackles": 1.2798, "clearances": 0.6496, "total_contest": 1.3003, "won_contest": 0.4753, "challenges_lost": 0.3381, "fouls": 0.5536, "fouls_drawn": 1.3702, "blocks": 0.0883, "big_chances_created": 0.022, "big_chances_missed": 0.1382, "xgot": 0.1841, "ball_carries": 12.9167, "total_progression": 29.9062, "progressive_carries": 0.6641, "shots_off_target": 1.2524, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "skill_edge": -0.046, "height_edge": -0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.7964, "defender_skill": 0.8986, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "market_value": 109000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8984 }, { "player": "Enzo Fernández", "market_value": 116000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8989 } ], "xg_override": 0.1409 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.302, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.8621, "after": 1.6705 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3961, "after": 1.2524 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4613, "after": 0.4138 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2052, "after": 0.1841 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1597, "after": 0.1433 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1571, "after": 0.1409 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.154, "after": 0.1382 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0645, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1409, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4138, "total_shots": 1.6705, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.4137, "interceptions": 0.4773, "tackles_won": 0.6807, "tackles": 1.2798, "clearances": 0.6496, "total_contest": 1.3003, "won_contest": 0.4753, "challenges_lost": 0.3381, "fouls": 0.5536, "fouls_drawn": 1.3702, "blocks": 0.0883, "big_chances_created": 0.022, "big_chances_missed": 0.1382, "xgot": 0.1841, "ball_carries": 12.9167, "total_progression": 29.9062, "progressive_carries": 0.6641, "shots_off_target": 1.2524, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4138, "total_shots": 1.6705, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.4137, "interceptions": 0.4773, "tackles_won": 0.6807, "tackles": 1.2798, "clearances": 0.6496, "total_contest": 1.3003, "won_contest": 0.4753, "challenges_lost": 0.3381, "fouls": 0.5536, "fouls_drawn": 1.3702, "blocks": 0.0883, "big_chances_created": 0.022, "big_chances_missed": 0.1382, "xgot": 0.1715, "ball_carries": 12.9167, "total_progression": 29.9062, "progressive_carries": 0.6641, "shots_off_target": 1.2524, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0126, "creation_factor": 1.0358 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.154, "squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1409, "after": 0.1312 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4138, "total_shots": 1.6705, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.4137, "interceptions": 0.4773, "tackles_won": 0.6807, "tackles": 1.2798, "clearances": 0.6496, "total_contest": 1.3003, "won_contest": 0.4753, "challenges_lost": 0.3381, "fouls": 0.5536, "fouls_drawn": 1.3702, "blocks": 0.0883, "big_chances_created": 0.022, "big_chances_missed": 0.1382, "xgot": 0.1715, "ball_carries": 12.9167, "total_progression": 29.9062, "progressive_carries": 0.6641, "shots_off_target": 1.2524, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "opponent_faced": "Elliot Anderson, Enzo Fernández", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0126, "creation_factor": 1.0358, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1829, "fifa_rank": 877.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4138, "total_shots": 1.6705, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, "total_pass": 33.7053, "accurate_pass": 28.9742, "duels_won": 3.4274, "total_long_balls": 2.0079, "accurate_long_balls": 1.296, "total_own_half_passes": 14.7616, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.084, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.9437, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.8902, "crosses_total": 0.4887, "crosses_accurate": 0.0159, "touches": 46.852, "possession_lost": 8.6477, "dispossessed": 0.7816, "duels_lost": 3.8882, "aerial_won": 0.8, 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"creation_factor": 1.0358, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.123, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "scorer_weight": 0.1329, "squad_weight_total": 1.2134, "weight_share": 0.1095, "finishing_factor": 1.0126, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3139, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3139, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1697 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8008, "expected_assists": 0.0601, "assist_rate": 0.0686, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1312, "goal_rate": 0.1433, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4138, "total_shots": 1.6705, "rating": 6.8653, "minutes": 84.18, 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"importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2059 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0332 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": 0.037, "total": 0.8599, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.205925 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063849 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033219 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.021748 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.018209 } ], "others_margin": 0.036827 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.84026575088501, "model_output": 6.8403, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.0054, "total": 6.8403, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.023954 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.019094 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013406 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012536 } ], "others_margin": -0.005314 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2414 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 0.2117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.241391 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012739 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011307 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010603 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.01037 } ], "others_margin": -0.023935 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80957555770874, "model_output": 6.8096, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 6.8096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018603 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012741 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.010392 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008196 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.006571 } ], "others_margin": 0.006171 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3355, "tackles": 0.4289, "tackles_won": 0.2661, "clearances": 1.0222, "aerial_won": 0.3526, "total_shots": 0.2135, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 30.69, "total_pass": 15.3328, "accurate_pass": 14.0409, "duels_won": 1.7928, "total_long_balls": 1.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7841, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2018, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9184, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1225, "crosses_total": 0.7842, "crosses_accurate": 0.392, "touches": 26.8078, "possession_lost": 2.6926, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0846, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2348, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.8998, "fouls_drawn": 0.6754, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2135 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.7 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.95, "projection_minutes": 30.69, "minutes_scale": 0.4872, "appearance_probability": 0.361 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.154, "squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.361 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0079, "after": 0.0027 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1236, "fifa_rank": 675.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.2134, "weight_share": 0.0008, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.361, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3139, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3139, "runner_up": "Diego 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"importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2556 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0161, "total": 0.2763, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.255619 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029103 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.015312 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.013383 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.010135 } ], "others_margin": -0.016144 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7828779220581055, "model_output": 6.7829, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0146 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0099 } ], "others": -0.0074, "total": 6.7829, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014613 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012611 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01254 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011667 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009895 } ], "others_margin": -0.007465 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no 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"not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2215, "tackles": 0.4524, "tackles_won": 0.3415, "clearances": 0.4188, "aerial_won": 0.3673, "total_shots": 0.1526, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 14.49, "total_pass": 8.9442, "accurate_pass": 7.3272, "duels_won": 2.2, "total_long_balls": 0.6425, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2142, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1424, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9282, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8018, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.399, "crosses_total": 0.0053, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3415, "possession_lost": 2.8104, "dispossessed": 0.3916, "duels_lost": 1.5254, "aerial_lost": 0.7244, "total_contest": 0.3368, "won_contest": 0.182, "ball_recovery": 0.9471, "challenges_lost": 0.7244, "fouls": 0.3611, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.18, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.0673, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.182, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4076, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.3962, "shots_off_target": 0.1522, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.236, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.49, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.236, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.4118, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0259, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0414, "expected_assists": 0.0231, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, 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Retamal", "ranking": 1875 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 }, { "player_name": "Cucho Hernández", "ranking": 1878 }, { "player_name": "Evanilson", "ranking": 1879 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.757, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1485 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.04 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0158 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.28, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.630232 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.201069 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.176779 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.110415 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.055724 } ], "others_margin": -0.040151 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.9514552354812622, "model_output": 0.9515, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5631 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3276 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.1041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0667 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0396 } ], "others": 0.0741, "total": 0.9515, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.563118 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.327625 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.104149 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.066652 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.039593 } ], "others_margin": 0.074011 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.67987060546875, "model_output": 6.6799, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0724 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0272 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0146, "total": 6.6799, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072444 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.038721 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.027159 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012027 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011171 } ], "others_margin": -0.014618 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0103, quality 0.746)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3224, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assists": 0.0471, "assist_rate": 0.0471, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.0867, "goal_rate": 0.0867, "shots_on_target": 0.2828, "total_shots": 0.9613, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 28.12, "total_pass": 15.6059, "accurate_pass": 13.6249, "duels_won": 0.4761, "total_long_balls": 0.5289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3132, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3516, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0167, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6082, "crosses_total": 0.2934, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0409, "possession_lost": 3.1899, "dispossessed": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 1.3816, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4213, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3253, "tackles": 0.3886, "clearances": 0.6471, "total_contest": 0.3592, "won_contest": 0.0875, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3164, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0744, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1679, "ball_carries": 6.4738, "total_progression": 14.1163, "progressive_carries": 0.4642, "shots_off_target": 0.6784 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 34000000, "quality_factor": 0.7455, "boost_factor": 1.0103, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0043)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3224, "expected_assists": 0.0293, "assists": 0.0469, "assist_rate": 0.0469, "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.0902, "goal_rate": 0.0902, "shots_on_target": 0.2854, "total_shots": 0.9629, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 28.12, "total_pass": 15.6059, "accurate_pass": 13.6249, "duels_won": 0.4761, "total_long_balls": 0.5289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3132, "total_own_half_passes": 6.3516, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.0167, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2543, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.6082, "crosses_total": 0.2921, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.0409, "possession_lost": 3.1899, "dispossessed": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 1.3816, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4213, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.3278, "tackles": 0.3886, "clearances": 0.6471, "total_contest": 0.3592, "won_contest": 0.0875, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.315, "fouls_drawn": 0.0039, "blocks": 0.0744, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1679, "ball_carries": 6.4738, "total_progression": 14.1163, "progressive_carries": 0.4642, "shots_off_target": 0.6784 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0043, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3124, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection 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"big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1385, "ball_carries": 5.3393, "total_progression": 11.6426, "progressive_carries": 0.3829, "shots_off_target": 0.5595, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.19, "projection_minutes": 28.12, "minutes_scale": 0.8248, "appearance_probability": 0.332 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2659, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assists": 0.0387, "assist_rate": 0.0387, "expected_goals": 0.0798, "goals": 0.0744, "goal_rate": 0.0744, "shots_on_target": 0.2354, "total_shots": 0.7949, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 12.8712, "accurate_pass": 11.2373, "duels_won": 0.3927, "total_long_balls": 0.4362, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2583, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2386, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9623, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.275, "crosses_total": 0.2409, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.529, "possession_lost": 2.6309, "dispossessed": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 1.1395, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4213, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2704, "tackles": 0.3205, "clearances": 0.5337, "total_contest": 0.2963, "won_contest": 0.0722, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2598, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0614, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1385, "ball_carries": 5.3393, "total_progression": 11.6426, "progressive_carries": 0.3829, "shots_off_target": 0.5595, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2659, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0387, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0744, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2354, "total_shots": 0.7949, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 12.8712, "accurate_pass": 11.2373, "duels_won": 0.3927, "total_long_balls": 0.4362, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2583, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2386, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9623, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.275, "crosses_total": 0.2409, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.529, "possession_lost": 2.6309, "dispossessed": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 1.1395, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4213, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2704, "tackles": 0.3205, "clearances": 0.5337, "total_contest": 0.2963, "won_contest": 0.0722, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2598, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0614, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1385, "ball_carries": 5.3393, "total_progression": 11.6426, "progressive_carries": 0.3829, "shots_off_target": 0.5595, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.332, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.332, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2659, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assist_rate": 0.0387, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0798, "goal_rate": 0.0744, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2354, "total_shots": 0.7949, "rating": 6.6799, "minutes": 23.19, "total_pass": 12.8712, "accurate_pass": 11.2373, "duels_won": 0.3927, "total_long_balls": 0.4362, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2583, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2386, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9623, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6326, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.275, "crosses_total": 0.2409, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.529, "possession_lost": 2.6309, "dispossessed": 0.3723, "duels_lost": 1.1395, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.4213, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2704, "tackles": 0.3205, "clearances": 0.5337, "total_contest": 0.2963, "won_contest": 0.0722, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2598, "fouls_drawn": 0.0032, "blocks": 0.0614, 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"player_id": 946695, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 182, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.069, "assist_rate": 0.1335, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0991, "goal_rate": 0.0718, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7023, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 7.335, "dispossessed": 0.5621, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0759, 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363880, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1514, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363650, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0936, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0786, "expected_assists": 0.4434, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0617, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3551, "expected_assists": 0.3207, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023935, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0042, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2606, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": 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"features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "creative_efficiency", "cross_accuracy", "cross_creative_contribution", "defensive_midfield_actions", "press_vulnerability", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "keyPass", 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}, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.143319 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.07949 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071522 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.050896 } ], "others_margin": -0.016109 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.25584185123443604, "model_output": 0.2558, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1442 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0373, "total": 0.2558, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.60489 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.167439 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.064592 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.054867 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.053477 } ], "others_margin": 0.157783 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7775939702987671, "model_output": 0.7776, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.468 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1006 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0224 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0188 } ], "others": 0.1021, "total": 0.7776, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.468046 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.100557 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.022407 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.01995 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.018816 } ], "others_margin": 0.102179 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.702309608459473, "model_output": 6.7023, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0775 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0599 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0153, "total": 6.7023, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077499 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059911 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.024169 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014055 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01106 } ], "others_margin": -0.015344 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.725)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5316, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assists": 0.0945, "assist_rate": 0.0945, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0514, "goal_rate": 0.0514, "shots_on_target": 0.2579, "total_shots": 0.7838, "rating": 6.7023, "minutes": 16.44, "total_pass": 4.7624, "accurate_pass": 2.8445, "duels_won": 1.3204, "total_long_balls": 0.7979, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0533, "total_own_half_passes": 0.664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0985, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2438, "crosses_total": 0.2953, "crosses_accurate": 0.0524, "touches": 11.805, "possession_lost": 5.2178, "dispossessed": 0.5621, "duels_lost": 1.6743, "aerial_won": 0.2851, "aerial_lost": 0.1802, "interceptions": 0.1399, "tackles_won": 0.1824, "tackles": 0.4456, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0513, "won_contest": 0.4265, "challenges_lost": 0.1527, "fouls": 0.227, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.1728, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 4.0346, "total_progression": 16.5525, "progressive_carries": 0.5261, "shots_off_target": 0.5259 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 31000000, "quality_factor": 0.7249, "boost_factor": 1.0079, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0052)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5316, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "assists": 0.095, "assist_rate": 0.095, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.2566, "total_shots": 0.7816, "rating": 6.7023, "minutes": 16.44, "total_pass": 4.7624, "accurate_pass": 2.8445, "duels_won": 1.3204, "total_long_balls": 0.7979, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0533, "total_own_half_passes": 0.664, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.6008, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0985, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.2438, "crosses_total": 0.2938, "crosses_accurate": 0.0524, "touches": 11.805, "possession_lost": 5.2178, "dispossessed": 0.5621, "duels_lost": 1.6743, "aerial_won": 0.2851, "aerial_lost": 0.1802, "interceptions": 0.1392, "tackles_won": 0.1833, "tackles": 0.4456, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 1.0513, "won_contest": 0.4265, "challenges_lost": 0.1527, "fouls": 0.2258, "fouls_drawn": 0.2622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1703, "big_chances_missed": 0.1728, "xgot": 0.054, "ball_carries": 4.0346, "total_progression": 16.5525, "progressive_carries": 0.5261, "shots_off_target": 0.5259 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0052, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1827, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2639 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0223, "total": 0.3487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478559 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.076916 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074123 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056727 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.053602 } ], "others_margin": -0.061711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.587025165557861, "model_output": 6.587, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0889, "total": 6.587, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063419 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021024 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.016672 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016536 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012995 } ], "others_margin": -0.088905 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0386, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.0379, "goal_rate": 0.0379, "shots_on_target": 0.2436, "total_shots": 0.5431, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.3621, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0386, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 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"projection_minutes": 17.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0923, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, 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"xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0549, "after": 0.0377 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0269 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8704, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6608, "fifa_rank": 9029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", 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"name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2639 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0318 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0284 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0216 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0223, "total": 0.3487, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.478559 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.076916 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074123 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056727 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.053602 } ], "others_margin": -0.061711 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.587025165557861, "model_output": 6.587, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0634 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.021 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.013 } ], "others": -0.0889, "total": 6.587, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.063419 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021024 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.016672 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.016536 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012995 } ], "others_margin": -0.088905 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0386, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.0379, "goal_rate": 0.0379, "shots_on_target": 0.2436, "total_shots": 0.5431, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.3621, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0386, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2995 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0386, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0503, "goals": 0.0378, "goal_rate": 0.0378, "shots_on_target": 0.2427, "total_shots": 0.5411, "expected_assists": 0.0359, "key_pass": 0.3621, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 17.33, "total_pass": 5.193, "accurate_pass": 5.193, "duels_won": 1.0386, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.193, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4246, "possession_lost": 4.1544, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.1158, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.0772, "won_contest": 1.0386, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0418, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.1158, "total_progression": 22.3965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2995 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0036, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1926, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Brighton" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.3 to 18.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.74)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 18.93, "projection_minutes": 17.33, "minutes_scale": 1.0923, "appearance_probability": 0.737 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goals": 0.0413, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0549, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0392, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8704, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.154, "squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.737 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0549, "after": 0.0377 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0392, "after": 0.0269 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 67.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8704, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 6608, "fifa_rank": 9029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 67.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8704, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "scorer_weight": 0.0328, "squad_weight_total": 1.2134, "weight_share": 0.027, "finishing_factor": 0.8704, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3139, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3139, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1697 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0413, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2651, "total_shots": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "key_pass": 0.3955, "rating": 6.587, "minutes": 18.93, "total_pass": 5.6724, "accurate_pass": 5.6724, "duels_won": 1.1345, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6724, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.4794, "possession_lost": 4.538, "dispossessed": 1.0386, "duels_lost": 3.4035, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.269, "won_contest": 1.1345, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.138, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.4035, "total_progression": 24.4643, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3272, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.737, "bench_expected_minutes": 18.93, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0368, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0264, "finishing_factor": 0.8704, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0264, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0215, "squad_weight_total": 0.9064, "weight_share": 0.0237, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.737, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.1886, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1886, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1647, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Yankuba Minteh": { "player_id": 1400106, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 180, "market_value": 51000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0247, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0372, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 0.9775, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1148, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023949, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3172, "expected_assists": 0.0574, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024001, "match_date": "2026-04-21", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0509, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3435, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024002, "match_date": "2026-04-11", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0933, "expected_assists": 0.2006, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", 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0.0237, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1459, "combined_rank_score": 602.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 505.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8559, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7834, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yankuba Minteh", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mike Penders", 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0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0068 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0056 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0028 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": 0.0105, "total": 0.0744, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.330562 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.136636 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.09962 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.045668 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035766 } ], "others_margin": 0.152385 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6364559531211853, "model_output": 0.6365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2453 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0512 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0304 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0312 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0203 } ], "others": 0.0548, "total": 0.6365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.436269 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.108119 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.05912 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.057163 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.035495 } ], "others_margin": 0.089984 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.783411979675293, "model_output": 6.7834, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0785 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0394 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0145 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 6.7834, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.078513 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.039405 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.016213 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015353 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.014451 } ], "others_margin": 0.031899 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0124, quality 0.828)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0677, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.1822, "total_shots": 0.765, "expected_assists": 0.0753, "key_pass": 0.6443, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 27.84, "total_pass": 9.2311, "accurate_pass": 6.1435, "duels_won": 2.6489, "total_long_balls": 0.1574, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1574, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.8371, "crosses_total": 2.9513, "crosses_accurate": 0.453, "touches": 20.3206, "possession_lost": 8.1808, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.4068, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.3467, "won_contest": 1.0231, "ball_recovery": 1.1559, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3596, "fouls_drawn": 0.3056, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1775, "tackles_won": 0.9047, "tackles": 1.1921, "clearances": 0.2864, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.789, "total_progression": 27.5027, "progressive_carries": 1.7155, "shots_off_target": 0.5828 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 51000000, "quality_factor": 0.8276, "boost_factor": 1.0124, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.8 to 26.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0653, "goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "shots_on_target": 0.1756, "total_shots": 0.7374, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "key_pass": 0.6211, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5618, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.84, "projection_minutes": 27.84, "minutes_scale": 0.964, "appearance_probability": 0.629 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0653, "goals": 0.0627, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "shots_on_target": 0.1756, "total_shots": 0.7374, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "key_pass": 0.6211, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5618, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0653, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1756, "total_shots": 0.7374, "expected_assists": 0.0726, "key_pass": 0.6211, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0422, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5618, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1756, "total_shots": 0.7374, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.6211, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0247, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5618, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9775, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.154, "squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.629 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0653, "after": 0.0383 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0726, "after": 0.0425 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1756, "total_shots": 0.7374, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.6211, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0247, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5618, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9775, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1459, "fifa_rank": 699.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1756, "total_shots": 0.7374, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.6211, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0247, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5618, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0372, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9775, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0372, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "scorer_weight": 0.0374, "squad_weight_total": 1.2134, "weight_share": 0.0309, "finishing_factor": 0.9775, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3139, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3139, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1697 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goal_rate": 0.0627, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1756, "total_shots": 0.7374, "expected_assists": 0.0425, "key_pass": 0.6211, "rating": 6.7834, "minutes": 26.84, "total_pass": 8.8986, "accurate_pass": 5.9222, "duels_won": 2.5535, "total_long_balls": 0.1517, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1517, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.5462, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.6989, "crosses_total": 2.845, "crosses_accurate": 0.4367, "touches": 19.5886, "possession_lost": 7.8861, "dispossessed": 0.2444, "duels_lost": 3.2841, "aerial_lost": 1.0618, "total_contest": 2.2622, "won_contest": 0.9862, "ball_recovery": 1.1143, "challenges_lost": 0.4175, "fouls": 0.3466, "fouls_drawn": 0.2946, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1711, "tackles_won": 0.8721, "tackles": 1.1492, "clearances": 0.2761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0247, "offsides": 0.2561, "ball_carries": 6.5445, "total_progression": 26.512, "progressive_carries": 1.6537, "shots_off_target": 0.5618, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.629, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.84, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0372, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "finishing_factor": 0.9775, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0411, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.034, "squad_weight_total": 0.9064, "weight_share": 0.0375, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.629, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.1886, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1886, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1647, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ferdi Kadıoğlu": { "player_id": 825844, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 174, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 15, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0027, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363898, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363883, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2414 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.024, "total": 0.2117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.241391 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012739 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.011307 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010603 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.01037 } ], "others_margin": -0.023935 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80957555770874, "model_output": 6.8096, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0082 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0066 } ], "others": 0.0063, "total": 6.8096, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018603 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.012741 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.010392 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008196 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.006571 } ], "others_margin": 0.006171 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3355, "tackles": 0.4289, "tackles_won": 0.2661, "clearances": 1.0222, "aerial_won": 0.3526, "total_shots": 0.2135, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 30.69, "total_pass": 15.3328, "accurate_pass": 14.0409, "duels_won": 1.7928, "total_long_balls": 1.0674, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7841, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2018, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.9184, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1311, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.1225, "crosses_total": 0.7842, "crosses_accurate": 0.392, "touches": 26.8078, "possession_lost": 2.6926, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0846, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2348, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.8998, "fouls_drawn": 0.6754, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0163, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2135 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 30.7 to 15.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.36)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.95, "projection_minutes": 30.69, "minutes_scale": 0.4872, "appearance_probability": 0.361 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.15 (squad xG sum 1.2390, xG scale 0.9314, xA scale 0.9314, team xA 0.91 = 0.78 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.154, "squad_xg_sum": 1.239, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9722, "team_expected_assists": 0.9055, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7846, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9314, "xa_scale": 0.9314, "opponent_lambda": 2.615, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.361 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0079, "after": 0.0027 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1236, "fifa_rank": 675.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.2134, "weight_share": 0.0008, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.361, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "weight": 0.3139, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3139, "runner_up": "Diego Gómez", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1697 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.1635, "tackles": 0.209, "tackles_won": 0.1296, "clearances": 0.498, "aerial_won": 0.1718, "total_shots": 0.104, "rating": 6.8096, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 7.4702, "accurate_pass": 6.8408, "duels_won": 0.8735, "total_long_balls": 0.52, "accurate_long_balls": 0.382, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5343, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3963, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.9359, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4445, "crosses_total": 0.3821, "crosses_accurate": 0.191, "touches": 13.0609, "possession_lost": 1.3119, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5028, "aerial_lost": 2.076, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0888, "challenges_lost": 0.392, "fouls": 0.4384, "fouls_drawn": 0.3291, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.389, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0027, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0027, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0023, "squad_weight_total": 0.9064, "weight_share": 0.0026, "creation_factor": 0.8636, "appearance_weight": 0.361, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "weight": 0.1886, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1886, "runner_up": "Pascal Groß", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1647, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.15, "expected_assists": 0.91, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 501, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 120000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "Maxim De Cuyper" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.2649, "xg_multiplier": 1.0312, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxim De Cuyper", "role": "RB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (LW) is evenly matched against Maxim De Cuyper in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€120M vs €29M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.265 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković", "Lewis Dunk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.657, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.315, "xg_contribution": 0.636, "xg_multiplier": 1.1695, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 }, { "player": "Lewis Dunk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.685 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) is slightly favored against Luka Vušković and Lewis Dunk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.17 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.636 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Iliman Ndiaye", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković", "Lewis Dunk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.657, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.237, "xg_contribution": 0.2005, "xg_multiplier": 1.0541, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 }, { "player": "Lewis Dunk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.763 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iliman Ndiaye (ST) is evenly matched against Luka Vušković and Lewis Dunk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.05 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.200 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jérémy Doku", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 70000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.871, "defenders": [ "Luka Vušković", "Lewis Dunk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.657, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "xg_contribution": 0.175, "xg_multiplier": 1.0413, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Vušković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 }, { "player": "Lewis Dunk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jérémy Doku (ST) is evenly matched against Luka Vušković and Lewis Dunk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€70M vs €36M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.175 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Anderson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 109000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.896, "defenders": [ "Chema Andrés" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0641, "xg_multiplier": 1.0701, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chema Andrés", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Anderson (CDM) is slightly favored against Chema Andrés in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€109M vs €23M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Fernández", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Chema Andrés" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.1584, "xg_multiplier": 1.0587, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chema Andrés", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Fernández (CDM) is evenly matched against Chema Andrés in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €23M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pascal Groß", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.267, "xg_contribution": 0.118, "xg_multiplier": 0.6869, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abdukodir Khusanov", "role": "RB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pascal Groß (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abdukodir Khusanov in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €47M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.69 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yasin Ayari", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Enzo Fernández" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1409, "xg_multiplier": 0.8971, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Enzo Fernández", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 116000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yasin Ayari (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson and Enzo Fernández in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €112M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.141 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Charalampos Kostoulas", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.855, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2778, "xg_multiplier": 0.9308, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Charalampos Kostoulas (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Joško Gvardiol and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €62M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.278 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chema Andrés", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.372, "xg_contribution": 0.0601, "xg_multiplier": 0.9299, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.628 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chema Andrés (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Diego Gómez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.896, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.1734, "xg_multiplier": 0.949, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 109000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego Gómez (CDM) is evenly matched against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €109M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.173 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.897, "away_midfield_power": 0.679, "home_creative_power": 1.031, "away_creative_power": 0.598, "home_defensive_power": 0.762, "away_defensive_power": 0.683, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.569, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Enzo Fernández", "Rayan Cherki" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pascal Groß", "Chema Andrés", "Diego Gómez", "Yasin Ayari" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "home_throughball_threat": 3.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Rayan Cherki vs Yasin Ayari", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.029, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.976 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.615, "away_lambda": 1.154, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Maxim De Cuyper", "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Lewis Dunk" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Lewis Dunk" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jérémy Doku": { "opponents": [ "Luka Vušković", "Lewis Dunk" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Chema Andrés", "Yasin Ayari", "Diego Gómez", "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Chema Andrés", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdukodir Khusanov": { "opponents": [ "Pascal Groß" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas", "Yasin Ayari" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Matheus Nunes": { "opponents": [ "Charalampos Kostoulas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Maxim De Cuyper": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Vušković": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Iliman Ndiaye", "Jérémy Doku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lewis Dunk": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Iliman Ndiaye", "Jérémy Doku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chema Andrés": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Enzo Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pascal Groß": { "opponents": [ "Abdukodir Khusanov", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yasin Ayari": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Enzo Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Charalampos Kostoulas": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bart Verbruggen": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Jérémy Doku" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Olivier Boscagli": { "opponents": [ "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Costinha": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Rayan Cherki vs Yasin Ayari). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.50, Away: 0.77. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8767, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1261, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9274, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8638, "home_midfield_factor": 1.029, "away_midfield_factor": 0.976, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8638, "away_avg_quality": 0.6563, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2075, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.2114, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.0881, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.571, "elite_count_gap": 7, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4512, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2482, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1444, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.4989, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.4867 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.029, "result": 1.5298 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.5298 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.9875 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0529, "result": 2.0927 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8767, "result": 1.8347 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9274, "result": 1.7014 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.8814 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.8814, "result": 1.8814, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4512, "factor": 1.2482, "pre": 1.8814, "result": 2.3483 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.3483 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 2.568 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 2.7469 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 2.7469, "result": 2.747, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 3.022 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0214, "pre": 3.022, "result": 3.0867, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1178, "pre": 3.0867, "result": 3.45 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 3.45 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9337, "input_total": 4.434, "result": 3.2212 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 3.2212, "result": 3.221, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 2.615 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7702, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9402 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.976, "result": 0.9176 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9176 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9176 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1153, "result": 1.0234 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8584, "result": 0.8784 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.8638, "result": 0.7588 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1261, "result": 0.8849 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.8849, "result": 0.8849, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4512, "factor": 0.8556, "pre": 0.8849, "result": 0.7571 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.7571 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1678, "result": 0.9248 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.4192 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4192, "result": 1.419, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.376 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9786, "pre": 1.376, "result": 1.3466, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9649, "pre": 1.3466, "result": 1.299 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 1.299 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9337, "input_total": 4.434, "result": 1.2128 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.2128, "result": 1.213, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.154 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1678, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester City", "away_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.4512, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1178, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9649, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.0867, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.3466, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.7469, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4192, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.615, "final_away_lambda": 1.154 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0529, "attack_index": 1.321, "defense_concede_index": 0.852, "form_multiplier": 1.021, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.83, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.18, "team_ppg": 2.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.72 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1153, "attack_index": 1.429, "defense_concede_index": 0.924, "form_multiplier": 0.979, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.98, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.28, "team_ppg": 1.72, "opponent_ppg": 2.08 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Man City vs Brighton. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 2.747, Away 1.419). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.615, Away 1.154 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Manchester City", "away_squad": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "home_goals_per90": 3.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.5, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.615, "away_lambda": 1.154, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 2.747, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.419 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:32:16Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }