{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Celta", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-3", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.094, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.094, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0706, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Rayo Vallecano", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2394, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1111 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.094 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0854 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0734 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0706 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0513, "0-1": 0.064, "0-2": 0.0414, "0-3": 0.0177, "0-4": 0.0057, "0-5": 0.0014, "1-0": 0.0854, "1-1": 0.1111, "1-2": 0.0706, "1-3": 0.0301, "1-4": 0.0096, "1-5": 0.0025, "1-6": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0734, "2-1": 0.094, "2-2": 0.0602, "2-3": 0.0257, "2-4": 0.0082, "2-5": 0.0021, "3-0": 0.0417, "3-1": 0.0534, "3-2": 0.0342, "3-3": 0.0146, "3-4": 0.0047, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0178, "4-1": 0.0227, "4-2": 0.0146, "4-3": 0.0062, "4-4": 0.002, "4-5": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0061, "5-1": 0.0078, "5-2": 0.005, "5-3": 0.0021, "5-4": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0017, "6-1": 0.0022, "6-2": 0.0014, "6-3": 0.0006, "7-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4731, "draw": 0.2394, "away_win": 0.2875 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.5914, "btts_no": 0.4086, "home_clean_sheet": 0.278, "away_clean_sheet": 0.182 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.78, "MCR": 6.94, "ATR": 6.88, "GK": 6.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.92, "MCR": 6.85, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 7.14 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano 2W-5D-3L vs Celta over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Álvaro García, Sergio Camello, Ferrán Jutglà", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Ilaix Moriba will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.704, "away_lambda": 1.28, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 3, "draws": 5, "home_multiplier": 0.9929, "away_multiplier": 1.0071 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1111, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4731, "draw": 0.2394, "away_win": 0.2875 }, "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4731, "fair_spread": 0.424, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.704, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.28, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5914, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Rayo Vallecano", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.278, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.182, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.4411, "probability": 0.3567, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ferrán Jutglà (Celta)", "estimate": 0.3258, "probability": 0.2781, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Unai López (Rayo Vallecano)", "estimate": 0.2178, "probability": 0.1957, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Javi Galán (Celta)", "estimate": 0.152, "probability": 0.141, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 853, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.4, "possession_home_pct": 49.0, "possession_away_pct": 51.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Rayo Vallecano", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4731, "script": "Rayo Vallecano is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.42 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Celta must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Rayo Vallecano lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Rayo Vallecano chance creation leans on Sergio Camello against Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Rayo Vallecano: starters carry the main goal usage through Álvaro García, Sergio Camello; bench watchlist: Alemão, Pedro Díaz, Giorgi Tsitaishvili.", "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through Ferrán Jutglà; bench watchlist: Williot Swedberg, Fer López, Jones El-Abdellaoui.", "Assist usage should flow through Adrià Pedrosa, Hugo Álvarez; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Rayo Vallecano tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Celta is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Rayo Vallecano.", "Celta wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Rayo Vallecano": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Emil Audero": { "player_id": 318603, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 190, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "touches": 43, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 24, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.982, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.02, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421084, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.4418 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421072, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3104 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.2107 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1487 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": -1.0454 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1308, "combined_rank_score": 567.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 925.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9909, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Emil Audero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matt Sutton", "ranking": 1303 }, { "player_name": "Pierre Kalulu", "ranking": 1304 }, { "player_name": "Mario Gila", "ranking": 1305 }, { "player_name": "Son Heung Min", "ranking": 1306 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 1307 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lukáš Haraslín", "ranking": 1309 }, { "player_name": "Marko Dmitrović", "ranking": 1310 }, { "player_name": "Tino Livramento", "ranking": 1311 }, { "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking": 1312 }, { "player_name": "Cecilio Waterman", "ranking": 1313 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.562, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 5, "data_confidence": 0.562, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9899, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 5 historical appearances across 3 target models." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8909, "goals_prevented": -0.0386, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.5956, "accurate_pass": 22.6622, "total_long_balls": 11.4998, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0676, "touches": 43.0865, "clearances": 1.2951, "ball_recovery": 9.6846, "high_claims": 1.0716, "punches": 0.6768, "aerial_won": 0.2292, "sweeper_actions": 0.1927, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1927, "saves_inside_box": 2.2431, "possession_lost": 8.9334, "duels_won": 0.2292, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.8808, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.6057 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:28:35.350989+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 201, "rows": 7385 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Elche", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2696, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-19", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2292, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1948, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-15", "opponent": "Espanyol", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1656, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1408, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 5.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.1927, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2704, "goodHighClaim": 1.0716, "save_contribution": 3.9656, "possessionLostCtrl": 8.9334, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.1656 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8909413814544678, "model_output": 2.8909, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9271, "items": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0429 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0167 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0121 } ], "others": -0.0227, "total": 2.8909, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074005, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.01478 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.006268 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": -0.006033 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.005779 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.004168 } ], "others_margin": -0.007825 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.038641124963760376, "model_output": -0.0386, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0388 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0235, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0106 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": 0.0225, "total": -0.0386, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.013502 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": -0.013421 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.011712 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.01059 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009601 } ], "others_margin": 0.022529 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.990852355957031, "model_output": 6.9909, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0343 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0234 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0173 } ], "others": 0.0339, "total": 6.9909, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.034321 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.023403 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": 0.022691 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019538 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.017329 } ], "others_margin": 0.033927 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9899, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9899, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.982, "shots_faced": 9.3, "expected_saves": 2.27, "high_pressure_saves": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.982 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.982, "shots_faced": 9.3, "expected_saves": 2.27, "high_pressure_saves": 0.79, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.982, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.02, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.3, "after": 12.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.27, "after": 2.99 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.79, "after": 1.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.982, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.02, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1308, "fifa_rank": 925.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.982, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.02, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8617, "goals_prevented": -0.0383, "rating": 6.9909, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 31.2765, "accurate_pass": 22.4333, "total_long_balls": 11.3837, "accurate_long_balls": 3.0366, "touches": 42.6513, "clearances": 1.282, "ball_recovery": 9.5868, "high_claims": 1.0608, "punches": 0.67, "aerial_won": 0.2269, "sweeper_actions": 0.1908, "sweeper_accurate": 0.1908, "saves_inside_box": 2.2204, "possession_lost": 8.8432, "duels_won": 0.2269, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.3875, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.982, "shots_faced": 12.2, "expected_saves": 2.99, "high_pressure_saves": 1.02, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà, Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Iván Balliu": { "player_id": 152446, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 175, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.652, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 8.037, "dispossessed": 0.0826, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0285, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0281, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0457, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421084, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.6, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421072, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1386, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416305, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416345, "match_date": "2026-09-15", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0035, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416331, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416321, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { 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"contribution": -0.0751 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0644 } ], "others": 0.035, "total": 0.7879, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.457418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.126707 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.101025 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.087901 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.08204 } ], "others_margin": 0.045289 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.33310940861701965, "model_output": 0.3331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1219 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0467 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0091 } ], "others": -0.0136, "total": 0.3331, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.121923 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046683 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029131 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.019962 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009103 } ], "others_margin": -0.013535 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.652016639709473, "model_output": 6.652, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0498 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0185 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": -0.0289, "total": 6.652, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.049793 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019402 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018496 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014543 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014122 } ], "others_margin": -0.028849 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9962, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.6323, "tackles": 1.6647, "tackles_won": 0.9947, "clearances": 2.5422, "aerial_won": 0.7849, "total_shots": 0.3318, "rating": 6.652, "minutes": 79.27, "total_pass": 26.8149, "accurate_pass": 21.7901, "duels_won": 3.4193, "total_long_balls": 3.0196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7709, "total_own_half_passes": 12.9918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.6423, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.8231, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1477, "crosses_total": 0.8873, "crosses_accurate": 0.0597, "touches": 44.7247, "possession_lost": 8.037, "dispossessed": 0.0826, "duels_lost": 2.7102, "aerial_lost": 0.7855, "total_contest": 0.7869, "won_contest": 0.547, "ball_recovery": 2.4042, "challenges_lost": 0.6779, "fouls": 0.9242, "fouls_drawn": 0.6846, "blocks": 0.6173, "goals": 0.0, 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substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1913, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9052, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.361, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.2077, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4816, "fouls_drawn": 0.7379, "blocks": 0.7229, "goals": 0.0477, "goal_rate": 0.0477, "assists": 0.0095, "assist_rate": 0.0095, "expected_goals": 0.0741, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.4402, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.998, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0130)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "assists": 0.0094, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "expected_goals": 0.0741, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.013, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1913, "after": 1.2105 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9052, "after": 0.9194 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.4816, "after": 1.4753 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "assists": 0.0094, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "expected_goals": 0.0741, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "assists": 0.0094, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "expected_goals": 0.0741, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0741, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8879 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0741, "after": 0.1116 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0169, "after": 0.0255 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1485, "fifa_rank": 946.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1056, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1056, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "scorer_weight": 0.0893, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0487, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2105, "tackles": 1.6519, "tackles_won": 0.9194, "clearances": 5.4714, "aerial_won": 1.932, "total_shots": 1.365, "rating": 7.0297, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 63.9054, "accurate_pass": 56.3059, "duels_won": 4.891, "total_long_balls": 7.7704, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2371, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9395, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.6045, "total_opp_half_passes": 26.966, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.7014, "crosses_total": 0.205, "crosses_accurate": 0.0392, "touches": 79.7318, "possession_lost": 8.6949, "dispossessed": 0.1552, "duels_lost": 3.7925, "aerial_lost": 1.6147, "total_contest": 0.3002, "won_contest": 0.1748, "ball_recovery": 5.2744, "challenges_lost": 0.531, "fouls": 1.4753, "fouls_drawn": 0.737, "blocks": 0.7229, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1116, "expected_assists": 0.0255, "shots_on_target": 0.4388, "big_chances_created": 0.0113, "xgot": 0.0883, "ball_carries": 22.1019, "total_progression": 112.8786, "progressive_carries": 1.2598, "key_pass": 0.3314, "shots_off_target": 0.9208, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568, "opponent_faced": "Ferrán Jutglà", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1056, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0252, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0252, "assist_rate": 0.0094, "provider_weight": 0.0226, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.0197, "creation_factor": 0.8879, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Mujaid 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9930, quality 0.458)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4700000, "quality_factor": 0.4585, "boost_factor": 0.993, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0338, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0764, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1151, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8961 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0338, "after": 0.0509 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1151, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8961, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 256, "fifa_rank": 202.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1151, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0496, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8961, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0496, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0407, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0222, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7691, "tackles": 0.8634, "tackles_won": 0.5307, "clearances": 4.2209, "aerial_won": 1.8183, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7848, "minutes": 86.27, "total_pass": 56.9809, "accurate_pass": 53.7698, "duels_won": 2.5555, "total_long_balls": 2.2893, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4165, "total_own_half_passes": 40.2084, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39.4067, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.7726, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.363, "crosses_total": 0.2648, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 67.5386, "possession_lost": 3.476, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6804, "aerial_lost": 1.2241, "total_contest": 0.1914, "won_contest": 0.1914, "ball_recovery": 2.7876, "challenges_lost": 0.1914, "fouls": 0.2648, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "blocks": 0.6944, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0509, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "shots_on_target": 0.3116, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1151, "ball_carries": 16.0833, "total_progression": 29.139, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1011, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Durán", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0496, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0087, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8961, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0087, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0078, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.0068, "creation_factor": 0.8961, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "player_id": 928672, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 176, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.102, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.12, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0533, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.075, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 42, "progressive_carries": 2, 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"importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.055 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0198 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0448, "total": 6.6724, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.055 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.019811 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016876 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014133 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013796 } ], "others_margin": -0.044811 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9974, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8235, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.1012, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7233, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.2967, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3042, "fouls_drawn": 0.9948, "blocks": 0.1745, "goals": 0.1024, "goal_rate": 0.1024, "assists": 0.1205, "assist_rate": 0.1205, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "shots_on_target": 0.3568, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0498, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9974, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0039)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8203, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.102, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7205, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.294, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3093, "fouls_drawn": 0.996, "blocks": 0.1745, "goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0.12, "assist_rate": 0.12, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0498, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0039, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9127, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3042, "after": 1.3093 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8203, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.102, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7219, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.294, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3093, "fouls_drawn": 0.996, "blocks": 0.1745, "goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0.12, "assist_rate": 0.12, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0498, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8203, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.102, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7219, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.294, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3093, "fouls_drawn": 0.996, "blocks": 0.1745, "goals": 0.102, "goal_rate": 0.102, "assists": 0.12, "assist_rate": 0.12, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0498, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8203, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.102, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7219, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.294, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3093, "fouls_drawn": 0.996, "blocks": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.102, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.12, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0354, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.0498, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8203, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.102, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7219, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.294, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3093, "fouls_drawn": 0.996, "blocks": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.102, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.12, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0533, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.075, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.915 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0354, "after": 0.0533 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1358, "after": 0.2046 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8203, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.102, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7219, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.294, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3093, "fouls_drawn": 0.996, "blocks": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.102, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.12, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0533, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.075, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.915, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3912, "fifa_rank": 2892.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8203, "tackles": 1.864, "tackles_won": 1.102, "clearances": 2.3632, "aerial_won": 0.6007, "total_shots": 0.7219, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 82.14, "total_pass": 30.2052, "accurate_pass": 25.0757, "duels_won": 3.8975, "total_long_balls": 3.1801, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1421, "total_own_half_passes": 15.145, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.406, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.0601, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.6698, "crosses_total": 3.294, "crosses_accurate": 0.5151, "touches": 52.5845, "possession_lost": 11.6936, "dispossessed": 0.383, "duels_lost": 4.7516, "aerial_lost": 0.4523, "total_contest": 1.6132, "won_contest": 0.5852, "ball_recovery": 2.3467, "challenges_lost": 1.5842, "fouls": 1.3093, "fouls_drawn": 0.996, "blocks": 0.1745, "goal_rate": 0.102, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.12, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0533, "expected_assists": 0.2046, "shots_on_target": 0.3554, "big_chances_created": 0.3221, "xgot": 0.075, "ball_carries": 12.8437, "total_progression": 41.7111, "progressive_carries": 1.6938, "key_pass": 1.2093, "shots_off_target": 0.3665, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612, "opponent_faced": "Aleix Febas", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.915, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 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"name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.3046 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1112 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0696 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0557 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0432 } ], "others": -0.1348, "total": 0.485, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.304602 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111216 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.069611 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055657 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.043176 } ], "others_margin": -0.134876 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.888841152191162, "model_output": 6.8888, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0358 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0104 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0092 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0109, "total": 6.8888, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035815 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.01487 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010419 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009156 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008171 } ], "others_margin": -0.010943 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5573, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assists": 0.0526, "assist_rate": 0.0526, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.0524, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "shots_on_target": 0.1578, "total_shots": 0.484, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 71.51, "total_pass": 31.9143, "accurate_pass": 28.0549, "duels_won": 3.7901, "total_long_balls": 1.6911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8248, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8425, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2125, "crosses_total": 0.1696, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.6616, "possession_lost": 5.6918, "dispossessed": 0.938, "duels_lost": 4.5282, "aerial_won": 0.7689, "aerial_lost": 1.3125, "interceptions": 0.9159, "tackles_won": 1.3799, "tackles": 2.0479, "clearances": 3.0209, "total_contest": 0.3749, "won_contest": 0.2692, "challenges_lost": 1.1487, "fouls": 1.2291, "fouls_drawn": 0.7122, "blocks": 0.7446, "big_chances_created": 0.0069, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 10.2456, "total_progression": 35.7852, "progressive_carries": 0.8168, "shots_off_target": 0.3262 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0108)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5573, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.1561, "total_shots": 0.4788, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 71.51, "total_pass": 31.9143, "accurate_pass": 28.0549, "duels_won": 3.7901, "total_long_balls": 1.6911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8248, 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0.1696, "after": 0.1752 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.2291, "after": 1.2345 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.484, "after": 0.4788 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9159, "after": 0.9209 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5573, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.1561, "total_shots": 0.4823, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 71.51, "total_pass": 31.9143, "accurate_pass": 28.0549, "duels_won": 3.7901, "total_long_balls": 1.6911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8248, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8425, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2125, "crosses_total": 0.1752, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.6616, "possession_lost": 5.6918, "dispossessed": 0.938, "duels_lost": 4.5282, "aerial_won": 0.7689, "aerial_lost": 1.3125, "interceptions": 0.9209, "tackles_won": 1.3837, "tackles": 2.0479, "clearances": 3.0209, "total_contest": 0.3749, "won_contest": 0.2692, "challenges_lost": 1.1487, "fouls": 1.2345, "fouls_drawn": 0.712, "blocks": 0.7446, "big_chances_created": 0.0069, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 10.2456, "total_progression": 35.7852, "progressive_carries": 0.8168, "shots_off_target": 0.3262 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5573, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.1561, "total_shots": 0.4823, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 71.51, "total_pass": 31.9143, "accurate_pass": 28.0549, "duels_won": 3.7901, "total_long_balls": 1.6911, 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"duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ilaix Moriba, Javier Rueda", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5573, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0345, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1561, "total_shots": 0.4823, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 71.51, "total_pass": 31.9143, "accurate_pass": 28.0549, "duels_won": 3.7901, "total_long_balls": 1.6911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8248, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8425, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2125, "crosses_total": 0.1752, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.6616, "possession_lost": 5.6918, "dispossessed": 0.938, "duels_lost": 4.5282, "aerial_won": 0.7689, "aerial_lost": 1.3125, "interceptions": 0.9209, "tackles_won": 1.3837, "tackles": 2.0479, "clearances": 3.0209, "total_contest": 0.3749, "won_contest": 0.2692, "challenges_lost": 1.1487, "fouls": 1.2345, "fouls_drawn": 0.712, "blocks": 0.7446, "big_chances_created": 0.0069, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0155, "ball_carries": 10.2456, "total_progression": 35.7852, "progressive_carries": 0.8168, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "opponent_faced": "Ilaix Moriba, Javier Rueda", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5573, "expected_assists": 0.0663, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1561, "total_shots": 0.4823, "rating": 6.8888, "minutes": 71.51, "total_pass": 31.9143, "accurate_pass": 28.0549, "duels_won": 3.7901, "total_long_balls": 1.6911, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8248, "total_own_half_passes": 15.6876, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.8425, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2267, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.2125, "crosses_total": 0.1752, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.6616, "possession_lost": 5.6918, "dispossessed": 0.938, "duels_lost": 4.5282, "aerial_won": 0.7689, "aerial_lost": 1.3125, "interceptions": 0.9209, "tackles_won": 1.3837, "tackles": 2.0479, "clearances": 3.0209, "total_contest": 0.3749, "won_contest": 0.2692, "challenges_lost": 1.1487, "fouls": 1.2345, "fouls_drawn": 0.712, "blocks": 0.7446, "big_chances_created": 0.0069, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0233, "ball_carries": 10.2456, "total_progression": 35.7852, "progressive_carries": 0.8168, "shots_off_target": 0.3262, "opponent_faced": "Ilaix Moriba, Javier Rueda", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2047, "creation_factor": 1.0851 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0345, "after": 0.052 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.044, "after": 0.0663 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": -0.0272, "total": 0.2804, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.190721 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.14994 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.122124 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.109141 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060254 } ], "others_margin": -0.092478 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1090086698532104, "model_output": 1.109, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1761 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1353 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0586 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.037 } ], "others": -0.0454, "total": 1.109, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.176141 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.135306 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.058644 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043107 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037 } ], "others_margin": -0.045418 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.130326271057129, "model_output": 7.1303, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0807 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0712 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0264 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0216 } ], "others": 0.045, "total": 7.1303, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080729 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.071165 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.029403 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.026357 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021616 } ], "others_margin": 0.045049 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9976, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6962, "expected_assists": 0.1446, "assists": 0.1029, "assist_rate": 0.1029, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0763, "goal_rate": 0.0763, "shots_on_target": 0.2797, "total_shots": 1.1063, "rating": 7.1303, "minutes": 81.42, "total_pass": 64.4042, "accurate_pass": 56.8615, "duels_won": 3.8161, "total_long_balls": 8.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4576, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.687, "crosses_total": 4.6832, "crosses_accurate": 0.8636, "touches": 79.7218, "possession_lost": 12.9235, "dispossessed": 0.4118, "duels_lost": 3.1731, "aerial_won": 0.4688, "aerial_lost": 0.6066, "interceptions": 1.1698, "tackles_won": 1.5846, "tackles": 2.0329, "clearances": 0.7482, "total_contest": 0.7146, "won_contest": 0.3554, "challenges_lost": 0.8593, "fouls": 0.9474, "fouls_drawn": 0.9591, "blocks": 0.4136, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 24.7348, "total_progression": 86.9423, "progressive_carries": 1.7043, "shots_off_target": 0.8266 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9976, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0139)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6962, "expected_assists": 0.1446, "assists": 0.1061, "assist_rate": 0.1061, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "shots_on_target": 0.2805, "total_shots": 1.0956, "rating": 7.1303, "minutes": 81.42, "total_pass": 64.4042, "accurate_pass": 56.8615, "duels_won": 3.8161, "total_long_balls": 8.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4576, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.687, "crosses_total": 4.6833, "crosses_accurate": 0.8636, "touches": 79.7218, "possession_lost": 12.9235, "dispossessed": 0.4118, "duels_lost": 3.1731, "aerial_won": 0.4688, "aerial_lost": 0.6066, "interceptions": 1.1628, "tackles_won": 1.5859, "tackles": 2.0329, "clearances": 0.7482, "total_contest": 0.7146, "won_contest": 0.3554, "challenges_lost": 0.8593, "fouls": 0.9575, "fouls_drawn": 0.9551, "blocks": 0.4136, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 24.7348, "total_progression": 86.9423, "progressive_carries": 1.7043, "shots_off_target": 0.8266 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0139, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9047, "prior_reliability": 0.18, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", 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"interceptions": 1.1628, "tackles_won": 1.5859, "tackles": 2.0329, "clearances": 0.7482, "total_contest": 0.7146, "won_contest": 0.3554, "challenges_lost": 0.8593, "fouls": 0.9575, "fouls_drawn": 0.9551, "blocks": 0.4136, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 24.7348, "total_progression": 86.9423, "progressive_carries": 1.7043, "shots_off_target": 0.8266 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6962, "expected_assists": 0.1446, "assists": 0.1061, "assist_rate": 0.1061, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "shots_on_target": 0.2805, "total_shots": 1.1071, "rating": 7.1303, "minutes": 81.42, "total_pass": 64.4042, "accurate_pass": 56.8615, "duels_won": 3.8161, "total_long_balls": 8.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4576, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.687, "crosses_total": 4.6833, "crosses_accurate": 0.8636, "touches": 79.7218, "possession_lost": 12.9235, "dispossessed": 0.4118, "duels_lost": 3.1731, "aerial_won": 0.4688, "aerial_lost": 0.6066, "interceptions": 1.1628, "tackles_won": 1.5859, "tackles": 2.0329, "clearances": 0.7482, "total_contest": 0.7146, "won_contest": 0.3554, "challenges_lost": 0.8593, "fouls": 0.9575, "fouls_drawn": 0.9551, "blocks": 0.4136, "big_chances_created": 0.2607, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0586, "ball_carries": 24.7348, "total_progression": 86.9423, "progressive_carries": 1.7043, "shots_off_target": 0.8266, "opponent_faced": "Javier Rueda", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javier Rueda", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6962, "expected_assists": 0.1446, "assist_rate": 0.1061, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0614, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2805, "total_shots": 1.1071, "rating": 7.1303, "minutes": 81.42, "total_pass": 64.4042, "accurate_pass": 56.8615, "duels_won": 3.8161, "total_long_balls": 8.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4576, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.687, "crosses_total": 4.6833, "crosses_accurate": 0.8636, "touches": 79.7218, "possession_lost": 12.9235, "dispossessed": 0.4118, "duels_lost": 3.1731, "aerial_won": 0.4688, "aerial_lost": 0.6066, "interceptions": 1.1628, "tackles_won": 1.5859, "tackles": 2.0329, "clearances": 0.7482, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6962, "expected_assists": 0.2178, "assist_rate": 0.1061, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2805, "total_shots": 1.1071, "rating": 7.1303, "minutes": 81.42, "total_pass": 64.4042, "accurate_pass": 56.8615, "duels_won": 3.8161, "total_long_balls": 8.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4576, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.687, "crosses_total": 4.6833, "crosses_accurate": 0.8636, "touches": 79.7218, "possession_lost": 12.9235, "dispossessed": 0.4118, "duels_lost": 3.1731, "aerial_won": 0.4688, "aerial_lost": 0.6066, "interceptions": 1.1628, "tackles_won": 1.5859, "tackles": 2.0329, "clearances": 0.7482, "total_contest": 0.7146, "won_contest": 0.3554, "challenges_lost": 0.8593, "fouls": 0.9575, "fouls_drawn": 0.9551, 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0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.6962, "expected_assists": 0.2178, "assist_rate": 0.1061, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0925, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2805, "total_shots": 1.1071, "rating": 7.1303, "minutes": 81.42, "total_pass": 64.4042, "accurate_pass": 56.8615, "duels_won": 3.8161, "total_long_balls": 8.4181, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4576, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4053, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.1745, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.9989, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.687, "crosses_total": 4.6833, "crosses_accurate": 0.8636, "touches": 79.7218, "possession_lost": 12.9235, "dispossessed": 0.4118, "duels_lost": 3.1731, "aerial_won": 0.4688, "aerial_lost": 0.6066, "interceptions": 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"allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Jorge de Frutos": { "player_id": 900003, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 10900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2009, "goal_rate": 0.1405, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0953, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7384, "minutes": 69, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 8.3917, "dispossessed": 0.7539, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.195, "assists": 0, 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.533)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1462, "goals": 0.154, "goal_rate": 0.154, "shots_on_target": 0.4968, "total_shots": 1.2907, "expected_assists": 0.0633, "key_pass": 0.7274, "rating": 6.7384, "minutes": 69.43, "total_pass": 10.6974, "accurate_pass": 7.8403, "duels_won": 3.5789, "total_long_balls": 0.5836, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2511, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.895, "crosses_total": 2.4085, "crosses_accurate": 0.4191, "touches": 22.7413, "possession_lost": 8.3917, "dispossessed": 0.7539, "duels_lost": 4.0331, "aerial_lost": 0.8649, "total_contest": 1.8277, "won_contest": 1.1394, "ball_recovery": 1.5995, "challenges_lost": 0.8619, "fouls": 0.9146, "fouls_drawn": 1.1529, "assists": 0.195, "assist_rate": 0.195, "interceptions": 0.1651, "tackles_won": 0.7002, "tackles": 0.9113, "clearances": 0.4453, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2186, "big_chances_missed": 0.1059, "xgot": 0.1755, "offsides": 0.4795, "ball_carries": 6.6569, "total_progression": 27.3594, "progressive_carries": 1.3753, "shots_off_target": 0.7939 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10900000, "quality_factor": 0.533, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1462, "goals": 0.154, "goal_rate": 0.154, "shots_on_target": 0.4968, "total_shots": 1.2907, "expected_assists": 0.0633, "key_pass": 0.7274, "rating": 6.7384, "minutes": 69.43, "total_pass": 10.6974, "accurate_pass": 7.8403, "duels_won": 3.5789, "total_long_balls": 0.5836, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2511, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4451, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.895, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2502 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.155 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0418 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0414 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0343 } ], "others": 0.0811, "total": 1.5169, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.250246 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.155002 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.041806 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.041353 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.034317 } ], "others_margin": 0.081036 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.791146278381348, "model_output": 6.7911, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0332 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.033 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0251 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0143 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0246, "total": 6.7911, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.033172 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.032959 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025094 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014267 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013505 } ], "others_margin": -0.024587 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9975, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2509, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.094, "assist_rate": 0.094, "expected_goals": 0.1139, "goals": 0.1245, "goal_rate": 0.1245, "shots_on_target": 0.4503, "total_shots": 1.5131, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.31, "accurate_pass": 19.3379, "duels_won": 3.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.1823, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1556, "crosses_total": 2.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6456, "touches": 37.494, "possession_lost": 9.4906, "dispossessed": 1.0891, "duels_lost": 4.6483, "aerial_won": 0.8712, "aerial_lost": 0.8003, "interceptions": 0.0532, "tackles_won": 0.3809, "tackles": 1.2231, "clearances": 1.1152, "total_contest": 1.1481, "won_contest": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 1.1817, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.3089, "blocks": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.231, "big_chances_missed": 0.1481, "xgot": 0.0729, "ball_carries": 9.3373, "total_progression": 16.8474, "progressive_carries": 1.0365, "shots_off_target": 1.0627 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9975, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2509, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.094, "assist_rate": 0.094, "expected_goals": 0.1139, "goals": 0.1245, "goal_rate": 0.1245, "shots_on_target": 0.4503, "total_shots": 1.5131, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.31, "accurate_pass": 19.3379, "duels_won": 3.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.1823, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1556, "crosses_total": 2.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6456, "touches": 37.494, "possession_lost": 9.4906, "dispossessed": 1.0891, "duels_lost": 4.6483, "aerial_won": 0.8712, "aerial_lost": 0.8003, "interceptions": 0.0532, "tackles_won": 0.3809, "tackles": 1.2231, "clearances": 1.1152, "total_contest": 1.1481, "won_contest": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 1.1817, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.3089, "blocks": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.231, "big_chances_missed": 0.1481, "xgot": 0.0729, "ball_carries": 9.3373, "total_progression": 16.8474, "progressive_carries": 1.0365, "shots_off_target": 1.0627 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2509, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assists": 0.094, "assist_rate": 0.094, "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goals": 0.095, "goal_rate": 0.095, "shots_on_target": 0.3435, "total_shots": 1.1543, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.31, "accurate_pass": 19.3379, "duels_won": 3.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.1823, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1556, "crosses_total": 2.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6456, "touches": 37.494, "possession_lost": 9.4906, "dispossessed": 1.0891, "duels_lost": 4.6483, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8003, "interceptions": 0.0532, "tackles_won": 0.3809, "tackles": 1.2231, "clearances": 1.1152, "total_contest": 1.1481, "won_contest": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 1.1817, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.3089, "blocks": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.231, "big_chances_missed": 0.113, "xgot": 0.0556, "ball_carries": 9.3373, "total_progression": 16.8474, "progressive_carries": 1.0365, "shots_off_target": 0.8107, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7629, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.7629, "skill_edge": -0.1013, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6625, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "market_value": 17500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6625 } ], "xg_override": 0.0869 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5131, "after": 1.1543 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.0627, "after": 0.8107 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4503, "after": 0.3435 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.8712, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1481, "after": 0.113 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1245, "after": 0.095 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1139, "after": 0.0869 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0729, "after": 0.0556 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2509, "expected_assists": 0.1174, "assist_rate": 0.094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0869, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3435, "total_shots": 1.1543, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.31, "accurate_pass": 19.3379, "duels_won": 3.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.1823, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1556, "crosses_total": 2.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6456, "touches": 37.494, "possession_lost": 9.4906, "dispossessed": 1.0891, "duels_lost": 4.6483, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8003, "interceptions": 0.0532, "tackles_won": 0.3809, "tackles": 1.2231, "clearances": 1.1152, "total_contest": 1.1481, "won_contest": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 1.1817, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.3089, "blocks": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.231, "big_chances_missed": 0.113, "xgot": 0.0556, "ball_carries": 9.3373, "total_progression": 16.8474, "progressive_carries": 1.0365, "shots_off_target": 0.8107, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7629, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2509, "expected_assists": 0.1768, "assist_rate": 0.094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1309, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3435, "total_shots": 1.1543, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.31, "accurate_pass": 19.3379, "duels_won": 3.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.1823, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1556, "crosses_total": 2.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6456, "touches": 37.494, "possession_lost": 9.4906, "dispossessed": 1.0891, "duels_lost": 4.6483, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8003, "interceptions": 0.0532, "tackles_won": 0.3809, "tackles": 1.2231, "clearances": 1.1152, "total_contest": 1.1481, "won_contest": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 1.1817, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.3089, "blocks": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.231, "big_chances_missed": 0.113, "xgot": 0.0837, "ball_carries": 9.3373, "total_progression": 16.8474, "progressive_carries": 1.0365, "shots_off_target": 0.8107, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7629, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0592, "creation_factor": 0.8602 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0869, "after": 0.1309 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1174, "after": 0.1768 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2509, "expected_assists": 0.1768, "assist_rate": 0.094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1309, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3435, "total_shots": 1.1543, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.31, "accurate_pass": 19.3379, "duels_won": 3.9837, "total_long_balls": 1.699, "accurate_long_balls": 0.882, "total_own_half_passes": 10.2346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.1823, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.0753, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1556, "crosses_total": 2.6244, "crosses_accurate": 0.6456, "touches": 37.494, "possession_lost": 9.4906, "dispossessed": 1.0891, "duels_lost": 4.6483, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 0.8003, "interceptions": 0.0532, "tackles_won": 0.3809, "tackles": 1.2231, "clearances": 1.1152, "total_contest": 1.1481, "won_contest": 0.582, "challenges_lost": 1.1817, "fouls": 1.0496, "fouls_drawn": 1.3089, "blocks": 0.1088, "big_chances_created": 0.231, "big_chances_missed": 0.113, "xgot": 0.0837, "ball_carries": 9.3373, "total_progression": 16.8474, "progressive_carries": 1.0365, "shots_off_target": 0.8107, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7629, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 1.9, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0592, "creation_factor": 0.8602, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1652, "fifa_rank": 981.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS 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"scorer_weight": 0.1386, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0757, "finishing_factor": 1.0592, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.2509, "expected_assists": 0.1768, "assist_rate": 0.094, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1309, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3435, "total_shots": 1.1543, "rating": 6.7911, "minutes": 67.38, "total_pass": 23.31, 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"matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1227, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1621, "finishing_factor": 1.0592, "creation_factor": 0.8602, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1621, "assist_rate": 0.094, "provider_weight": 0.1521, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.132, "creation_factor": 0.8602, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Álvaro García": { "player_id": 345111, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 168, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.2628, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.128, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.8528, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 12.2343, "dispossessed": 0.5271, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.2127, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3591, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8373, "dribbles_attempted": 2, 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051339 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.020053 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017485 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.014677 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.013627 } ], "others_margin": 0.026471 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 31, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2756, "goals": 0.3129, "goal_rate": 0.3129, "shots_on_target": 0.7167, "total_shots": 2.0446, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1.0279, "rating": 6.8528, "minutes": 81.8, "total_pass": 18.8444, "accurate_pass": 12.7991, "duels_won": 2.5533, "total_long_balls": 1.1602, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5817, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7443, "crosses_total": 4.0359, "crosses_accurate": 0.922, "touches": 34.6289, "possession_lost": 12.2343, "dispossessed": 0.5271, "duels_lost": 3.3051, "aerial_lost": 1.018, "total_contest": 1.1599, "won_contest": 0.3268, "ball_recovery": 2.9931, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.5481, "fouls_drawn": 0.3464, "assists": 0.2106, "assist_rate": 0.2106, "interceptions": 1.0692, 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2.0321 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.5481, "after": 0.5553 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2756, "goals": 0.3139, "goal_rate": 0.3139, "shots_on_target": 0.7136, "total_shots": 2.0415, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1.0279, "rating": 6.8528, "minutes": 81.8, "total_pass": 18.8444, "accurate_pass": 12.7991, "duels_won": 2.5533, "total_long_balls": 1.1602, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5817, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7443, "crosses_total": 4.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.922, "touches": 34.6289, "possession_lost": 12.2343, "dispossessed": 0.5271, "duels_lost": 3.3051, "aerial_lost": 1.018, "total_contest": 1.1599, "won_contest": 0.3268, "ball_recovery": 2.9931, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.5553, "fouls_drawn": 0.3428, "assists": 0.2127, "assist_rate": 0.2127, "interceptions": 1.0667, "tackles_won": 0.8004, "tackles": 1.1895, "clearances": 1.1446, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.265, "big_chances_missed": 0.2525, "xgot": 0.2847, "offsides": 0.5714, "ball_carries": 8.3482, "total_progression": 25.3917, "progressive_carries": 1.5811, "shots_off_target": 1.3279 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2308, "goals": 0.2628, "goal_rate": 0.2628, "shots_on_target": 0.5975, "total_shots": 1.7094, "expected_assists": 0.085, "key_pass": 1.0279, "rating": 6.8528, "minutes": 81.8, "total_pass": 18.8444, "accurate_pass": 12.7991, "duels_won": 2.5533, "total_long_balls": 1.1602, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5817, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7443, "crosses_total": 4.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.922, "touches": 34.6289, "possession_lost": 12.2343, "dispossessed": 0.5271, "duels_lost": 3.3051, "aerial_lost": 1.018, "total_contest": 1.1599, "won_contest": 0.3268, "ball_recovery": 2.9931, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.5553, "fouls_drawn": 0.3428, "assists": 0.2127, "assist_rate": 0.2127, "interceptions": 1.0667, "tackles_won": 0.8004, "tackles": 1.1895, "clearances": 1.1446, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.265, "big_chances_missed": 0.2114, "xgot": 0.2384, "offsides": 0.5714, "ball_carries": 8.3482, "total_progression": 25.3917, "progressive_carries": 1.5811, "shots_off_target": 1.1119, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8373, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8373, "skill_edge": -0.0507, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.55, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "market_value": 17500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6625 }, { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "market_value": 1300000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2308 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0415, "after": 1.7094 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3279, "after": 1.1119 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7136, "after": 0.5975 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3139, "after": 0.2628 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", 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"ball_recovery": 2.9931, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.5553, "fouls_drawn": 0.3428, "assist_rate": 0.2127, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0667, "tackles_won": 0.8004, "tackles": 1.1895, "clearances": 1.1446, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.265, "big_chances_missed": 0.2114, "xgot": 0.2384, "offsides": 0.5714, "ball_carries": 8.3482, "total_progression": 25.3917, "progressive_carries": 1.5811, "shots_off_target": 1.1119, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8373, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.2628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5975, "total_shots": 1.7094, "expected_assists": 0.128, "key_pass": 1.0279, "rating": 6.8528, "minutes": 81.8, "total_pass": 18.8444, "accurate_pass": 12.7991, "duels_won": 2.5533, "total_long_balls": 1.1602, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5817, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7443, "crosses_total": 4.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.922, "touches": 34.6289, "possession_lost": 12.2343, "dispossessed": 0.5271, "duels_lost": 3.3051, "aerial_lost": 1.018, "total_contest": 1.1599, "won_contest": 0.3268, "ball_recovery": 2.9931, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.5553, "fouls_drawn": 0.3428, "assist_rate": 0.2127, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0667, "tackles_won": 0.8004, "tackles": 1.1895, "clearances": 1.1446, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.265, "big_chances_missed": 0.2114, "xgot": 0.3591, "offsides": 0.5714, "ball_carries": 8.3482, "total_progression": 25.3917, "progressive_carries": 1.5811, "shots_off_target": 1.1119, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8373, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso", "opponent_faced": "Javi Rodríguez, Marcos Alonso", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.114, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2308, "after": 0.3476 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.085, "after": 0.128 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.2628, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5975, "total_shots": 1.7094, "expected_assists": 0.128, "key_pass": 1.0279, "rating": 6.8528, "minutes": 81.8, "total_pass": 18.8444, "accurate_pass": 12.7991, "duels_won": 2.5533, "total_long_balls": 1.1602, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5817, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7443, "crosses_total": 4.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.922, "touches": 34.6289, "possession_lost": 12.2343, "dispossessed": 0.5271, "duels_lost": 3.3051, "aerial_lost": 1.018, "total_contest": 1.1599, "won_contest": 0.3268, "ball_recovery": 2.9931, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.5553, "fouls_drawn": 0.3428, "assist_rate": 0.2127, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1.0667, "tackles_won": 0.8004, "tackles": 1.1895, "clearances": 1.1446, "blocks": 0.1921, "big_chances_created": 0.265, "big_chances_missed": 0.2114, 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571.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3476, "goal_rate": 0.2628, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.5975, "total_shots": 1.7094, "expected_assists": 0.128, "key_pass": 1.0279, "rating": 6.8528, "minutes": 81.8, "total_pass": 18.8444, "accurate_pass": 12.7991, "duels_won": 2.5533, "total_long_balls": 1.1602, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5817, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.4134, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.7443, "crosses_total": 4.0198, "crosses_accurate": 0.922, "touches": 34.6289, "possession_lost": 12.2343, "dispossessed": 0.5271, "duels_lost": 3.3051, "aerial_lost": 1.018, "total_contest": 1.1599, "won_contest": 0.3268, "ball_recovery": 2.9931, "challenges_lost": 0.3787, "fouls": 0.5553, "fouls_drawn": 0.3428, "assist_rate": 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"projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.134, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416321, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Real Racing Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3136, "expected_assists": 0.0893, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", 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"contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0704, "total": 0.3079, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.813433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.330431 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.057448 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.04946 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.039334 } ], "others_margin": -0.205759 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4394041895866394, "model_output": 0.4394, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2334 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1514 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0177 } ], "others": 0.016, "total": 0.4394, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.233378 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.151352 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.026818 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.019177 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.017739 } ], "others_margin": 0.01597 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.775132179260254, "model_output": 6.7751, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0245 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0164 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0247, "total": 6.7751, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024465 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016364 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.015877 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012076 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.010344 } ], "others_margin": -0.024622 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.650)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3743, "tackles": 0.7784, "tackles_won": 0.4996, "clearances": 0.8761, "aerial_won": 0.3094, "total_shots": 0.4415, "rating": 6.7751, "minutes": 17.23, "total_pass": 10.0576, "accurate_pass": 8.0151, "duels_won": 1.0047, "total_long_balls": 0.6894, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4215, "total_own_half_passes": 2.6575, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3896, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4001, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.6256, "crosses_total": 1.3895, "crosses_accurate": 0.3872, "touches": 17.8597, "possession_lost": 4.6113, "dispossessed": 0.4214, "duels_lost": 1.2985, "aerial_lost": 0.4556, "total_contest": 0.7367, "won_contest": 0.7367, "ball_recovery": 1.9621, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.4214, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.063 } ], "others": 0.0319, "total": 0.9919, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.092284 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.269505 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.143497 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.120822 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.067927 } ], "others_margin": 0.032656 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.4318654239177704, "model_output": 0.4319, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8408 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1605 }, { "name": 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"contribution": -0.1946 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0666 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0162 } ], "others": 0.0082, "total": 0.1745, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.19464 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.066576 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019335 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017116 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.016243 } ], "others_margin": 0.008302 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.631250381469727, "model_output": 6.6313, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.044 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0191 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0187 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0589, "total": 6.6312, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044049 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.019147 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018658 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014478 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.010832 } ], "others_margin": -0.058808 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his 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0.679, "fouls_drawn": 0.3942, "blocks": 0.7292, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4525, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.299, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4525, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.177, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2470, "fifa_rank": 1582.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Pedro Díaz": { "player_id": 900669, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 180, "market_value": 2900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, 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"margin": -0.084254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.048175 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025533 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010081 } ], "others_margin": -0.002633 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7754, "expected_assists": 0.0511, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.2751, "total_shots": 1.288, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 11.1065, "accurate_pass": 9.023, "duels_won": 1.5751, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3925, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5186, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5045, "crosses_total": 0.8632, "crosses_accurate": 0.3826, "touches": 17.4568, "possession_lost": 3.4509, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.3082, "aerial_won": 0.1057, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1815, "tackles_won": 0.1932, "tackles": 0.3907, "clearances": 0.2392, "total_contest": 0.5719, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4282, "fouls_drawn": 0.5651, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 5.5173, "total_progression": 24.1578, "progressive_carries": 0.6591, "shots_off_target": 1.0129 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0023)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7754, "expected_assists": 0.0511, "assists": 0.0836, "assist_rate": 0.0836, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2745, "total_shots": 1.285, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 11.1065, "accurate_pass": 9.023, "duels_won": 1.5751, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3925, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5186, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5045, "crosses_total": 0.8661, "crosses_accurate": 0.3826, "touches": 17.4568, "possession_lost": 3.4509, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.3082, "aerial_won": 0.1057, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1823, "tackles_won": 0.1928, "tackles": 0.3907, "clearances": 0.2392, "total_contest": 0.5719, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4284, "fouls_drawn": 0.5638, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 5.5173, "total_progression": 24.1578, "progressive_carries": 0.6591, "shots_off_target": 1.0129 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0023, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2649, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "assists": 0.081, "assist_rate": 0.081, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.09, "projection_minutes": 23.84, "minutes_scale": 0.9685, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "assists": 0.081, "assist_rate": 0.081, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3649, "fifa_rank": 2400.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "scorer_weight": 0.0744, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0497, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0497, "assist_rate": 0.081, "provider_weight": 0.0645, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Pathé Ismaël Ciss": { "player_id": 913679, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 183, "market_value": 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "contribution": 0.0109 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0881, "total": 6.588, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057945 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023779 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015838 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.010894 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010784 } ], "others_margin": -0.088003 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0857, "goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.2521, "total_shots": 0.6172, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "key_pass": 0.2033, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 4.4234, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 1.4339, "total_long_balls": 0.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.03, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8398, "crosses_total": 0.2642, "crosses_accurate": 0.1108, "touches": 9.7252, "possession_lost": 2.8802, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.6457, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.2856, "won_contest": 0.1196, "ball_recovery": 0.6709, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.7949, "fouls_drawn": 0.6038, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0114, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1433, "clearances": 0.3612, "blocks": 0.3067, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0815, "xgot": 0.0896, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 1.9011, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2654, "shots_off_target": 0.3651 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.9 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1049, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 22.85, "minutes_scale": 1.1099, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1049, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0951, "after": 0.0805 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3669, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.075, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.075, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "scorer_weight": 0.0859, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0469, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.075, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0117, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0117, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0094, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.0082, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "player_id": 875677, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 171, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 55, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0427, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0323, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421084, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0693, "expected_assists": 0.0106, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": 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"name": "rating", "margin": -0.037001 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.034665 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.011417 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": -0.010925 } ], "others_margin": -0.020834 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goals": 0.0465, "goal_rate": 0.0465, "shots_on_target": 0.238, "total_shots": 0.7796, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.45, "total_pass": 8.5276, "accurate_pass": 7.0142, "duels_won": 1.1971, "total_long_balls": 0.8465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3109, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8171, "crosses_total": 1.679, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3464, "possession_lost": 6.6027, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2866, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0435, "won_contest": 0.6218, "ball_recovery": 1.375, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2642, "tackles": 0.2642, "clearances": 0.2246, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.2183, "total_progression": 55.3661, "progressive_carries": 2.8761, "shots_off_target": 0.5416 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0462, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 25.45, "minutes_scale": 0.9938, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0462, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0527, "after": 0.0444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0395, "after": 0.0333 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0427, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "scorer_weight": 0.0416, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0227, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0427, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0323, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0266, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Pedro Díaz": { "player_id": 900669, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 180, "market_value": 2900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0497, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421084, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Rayo Vallecano", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1223, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0843 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0482 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0255 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0101 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 6.7686, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.084254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.048175 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025533 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013061 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010081 } ], "others_margin": -0.002633 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9978, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7754, "expected_assists": 0.0511, "assists": 0.0838, "assist_rate": 0.0838, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0773, "goal_rate": 0.0773, "shots_on_target": 0.2751, "total_shots": 1.288, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 11.1065, "accurate_pass": 9.023, "duels_won": 1.5751, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3925, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5186, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5045, "crosses_total": 0.8632, "crosses_accurate": 0.3826, "touches": 17.4568, "possession_lost": 3.4509, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.3082, "aerial_won": 0.1057, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1815, "tackles_won": 0.1932, "tackles": 0.3907, "clearances": 0.2392, "total_contest": 0.5719, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4282, "fouls_drawn": 0.5651, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 5.5173, "total_progression": 24.1578, "progressive_carries": 0.6591, "shots_off_target": 1.0129 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9978, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0023)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7754, "expected_assists": 0.0511, "assists": 0.0836, "assist_rate": 0.0836, "expected_goals": 0.0692, "goals": 0.0771, "goal_rate": 0.0771, "shots_on_target": 0.2745, "total_shots": 1.285, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.84, "total_pass": 11.1065, "accurate_pass": 9.023, "duels_won": 1.5751, "total_long_balls": 0.7136, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3925, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7981, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5186, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.3085, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5045, "crosses_total": 0.8661, "crosses_accurate": 0.3826, "touches": 17.4568, "possession_lost": 3.4509, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.3082, "aerial_won": 0.1057, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1823, "tackles_won": 0.1928, "tackles": 0.3907, "clearances": 0.2392, "total_contest": 0.5719, "won_contest": 0.5138, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4284, "fouls_drawn": 0.5638, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0976, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0303, "ball_carries": 5.5173, "total_progression": 24.1578, "progressive_carries": 0.6591, "shots_off_target": 1.0129 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0023, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2649, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Rayo Vallecano" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 23.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.69)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "assists": 0.081, "assist_rate": 0.081, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.09, "projection_minutes": 23.84, "minutes_scale": 0.9685, "appearance_probability": 0.692 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "assists": 0.081, "assist_rate": 0.081, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goals": 0.0747, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0293, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.692 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3649, "fifa_rank": 2400.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "scorer_weight": 0.0744, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0406, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.751, "expected_assists": 0.0516, "assist_rate": 0.081, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0698, "goal_rate": 0.0747, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2659, "total_shots": 1.2469, "rating": 6.7686, "minutes": 23.09, "total_pass": 10.7571, "accurate_pass": 8.7391, "duels_won": 1.5255, "total_long_balls": 0.6912, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3802, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7101, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4394, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.0471, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.2999, "crosses_total": 0.8389, "crosses_accurate": 0.3706, "touches": 16.9076, "possession_lost": 3.3423, "dispossessed": 0.2439, "duels_lost": 1.267, "aerial_won": 0.1024, "aerial_lost": 0.2319, "interceptions": 0.1766, "tackles_won": 0.1867, "tackles": 0.3784, "clearances": 0.2317, "total_contest": 0.5539, "won_contest": 0.4976, "challenges_lost": 0.3461, "fouls": 0.4149, "fouls_drawn": 0.5461, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0945, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0305, "ball_carries": 5.3437, "total_progression": 23.3978, "progressive_carries": 0.6384, "shots_off_target": 0.981, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.692, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.09, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0664, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0497, "finishing_factor": 1.0658, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0497, "assist_rate": 0.081, "provider_weight": 0.0645, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.056, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.692, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Alemão": { "player_id": 981604, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 182, "market_value": 4400000, 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"contribution": -0.0108 } ], "others": -0.0881, "total": 6.588, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057945 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023779 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015838 }, { "name": "totalShots_p90", "margin": 0.010894 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.010784 } ], "others_margin": -0.088003 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 23, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9981, quality 0.455)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0857, "goals": 0.0945, "goal_rate": 0.0945, "shots_on_target": 0.2521, "total_shots": 0.6172, "expected_assists": 0.0125, "key_pass": 0.2033, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 22.85, "total_pass": 4.4234, "accurate_pass": 3.1961, "duels_won": 1.4339, "total_long_balls": 0.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.03, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8055, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.8398, "crosses_total": 0.2642, "crosses_accurate": 0.1108, "touches": 9.7252, "possession_lost": 2.8802, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.6457, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.2856, "won_contest": 0.1196, "ball_recovery": 0.6709, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.7949, "fouls_drawn": 0.6038, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0114, "tackles_won": 0.1433, "tackles": 0.1433, "clearances": 0.3612, "blocks": 0.3067, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0815, "xgot": 0.0896, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 1.9011, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2654, "shots_off_target": 0.3651 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4400000, "quality_factor": 0.4548, "boost_factor": 0.9981, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.9 to 25.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1049, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.36, "projection_minutes": 22.85, "minutes_scale": 1.1099, "appearance_probability": 0.562 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goals": 0.1049, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0951, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0994, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.562 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0951, "after": 0.0805 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3669, "fifa_rank": 2920.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.075, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.075, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "scorer_weight": 0.0859, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0469, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0805, "goal_rate": 0.1049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2798, "total_shots": 0.685, "expected_assists": 0.0118, "key_pass": 0.2256, "rating": 6.588, "minutes": 25.36, "total_pass": 4.9095, "accurate_pass": 3.5473, "duels_won": 1.5915, "total_long_balls": 0.0459, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0333, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1138, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.042, "crosses_total": 0.2932, "crosses_accurate": 0.123, "touches": 10.7939, "possession_lost": 3.1967, "dispossessed": 0.6397, "duels_lost": 2.9364, "aerial_lost": 0.9238, "total_contest": 0.317, "won_contest": 0.1327, "ball_recovery": 0.7446, "challenges_lost": 0.1326, "fouls": 0.8822, "fouls_drawn": 0.6701, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0127, "tackles_won": 0.159, "tackles": 0.159, "clearances": 0.4009, "blocks": 0.3404, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0905, "xgot": 0.0841, "offsides": 0.0492, "ball_carries": 2.11, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.2946, "shots_off_target": 0.4052, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.075, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0117, "finishing_factor": 1.0675, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0117, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0094, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.0082, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.562, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] }, "Giorgi Tsitaishvili": { "player_id": 875677, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 171, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.053, "goals": 0.0465, "goal_rate": 0.0465, "shots_on_target": 0.238, "total_shots": 0.7796, "expected_assists": 0.0397, "key_pass": 0.3835, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.45, "total_pass": 8.5276, "accurate_pass": 7.0142, "duels_won": 1.1971, "total_long_balls": 0.8465, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3109, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1059, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8171, "crosses_total": 1.679, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.3464, "possession_lost": 6.6027, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2866, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0435, "won_contest": 0.6218, "ball_recovery": 1.375, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3109, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2642, "tackles": 0.2642, "clearances": 0.2246, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.2183, "total_progression": 55.3661, "progressive_carries": 2.8761, "shots_off_target": 0.5416 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 25.4 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0462, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 25.45, "minutes_scale": 0.9938, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goals": 0.0462, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0527, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.70 (squad xG sum 1.1313, xG scale 1.5063, xA scale 1.5063, team xA 1.21 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.704, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1313, "squad_xa_sum": 0.8, "team_expected_assists": 1.2051, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7072, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.5063, "xa_scale": 1.5063, "opponent_lambda": 1.28, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0527, "after": 0.0444 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0395, "after": 0.0333 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1617, "fifa_rank": 1117.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0427, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0427, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "scorer_weight": 0.0416, "squad_weight_total": 1.8323, "weight_share": 0.0227, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sergio Camello", "weight": 0.5098, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.5098, "runner_up": "Álvaro García", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3872 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Álvaro García", "weight": 0.3872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3872, "runner_up": "Sergio Camello", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2169 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0444, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2365, "total_shots": 0.7748, "expected_assists": 0.0333, "key_pass": 0.3811, "rating": 6.6624, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 8.4747, "accurate_pass": 6.9707, "duels_won": 1.1897, "total_long_balls": 0.8413, "accurate_long_balls": 0.309, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.0618, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.781, "crosses_total": 1.6686, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.2389, "possession_lost": 6.5618, "dispossessed": 0.4155, "duels_lost": 2.2724, "aerial_lost": 0.2246, "total_contest": 2.0308, "won_contest": 0.6179, "ball_recovery": 1.3665, "challenges_lost": 0.2246, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.309, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.2626, "tackles": 0.2626, "clearances": 0.2232, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.1674, "total_progression": 55.0229, "progressive_carries": 2.8583, "shots_off_target": 0.5382, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.611, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0427, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0323, "finishing_factor": 0.9367, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0323, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0266, "squad_weight_total": 1.1517, "weight_share": 0.0231, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "weight": 0.1872, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1872, "runner_up": "Unai López", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1747 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.7, "expected_assists": 1.21, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 402, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } }, "Celta": { "formation": "3-4-3", "players": { "Ionuț Radu": { "player_id": 815202, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 188, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1362, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 12, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 39, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.8466, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 7.9481, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0273, "shots_faced": 16.2, "expected_saves": 3.97, "high_pressure_saves": 1.36, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8778, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1362, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8864, "accurate_pass": 19.9729, "total_long_balls": 11.7594, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8915, "touches": 39.3259, "clearances": 1.2067, "ball_recovery": 10.1573, "high_claims": 0.8258, "punches": 0.8466, "aerial_won": 0.0422, "sweeper_actions": 0.7748, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7748, "saves_inside_box": 2.1704, "possession_lost": 7.9481, "duels_won": 0.6067, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1353, "won_contest": 0.1353, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3251, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5109, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0273, "shots_faced": 9.8, "expected_saves": 2.4, "high_pressure_saves": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8778, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1362, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8864, "accurate_pass": 19.9729, "total_long_balls": 11.7594, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8915, "touches": 39.3259, "clearances": 1.2067, "ball_recovery": 10.1573, "high_claims": 0.8258, "punches": 0.8466, "aerial_won": 0.0422, "sweeper_actions": 0.7748, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7748, "saves_inside_box": 2.1704, "possession_lost": 7.9481, "duels_won": 0.6067, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1353, "won_contest": 0.1353, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3251, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5109, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0273, "shots_faced": 16.2, "expected_saves": 3.97, "high_pressure_saves": 1.36, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 9.8, "after": 16.2 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.4, "after": 3.97 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.82, "after": 1.36 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8778, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1362, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8864, "accurate_pass": 19.9729, "total_long_balls": 11.7594, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8915, "touches": 39.3259, "clearances": 1.2067, "ball_recovery": 10.1573, "high_claims": 0.8258, "punches": 0.8466, "aerial_won": 0.0422, "sweeper_actions": 0.7748, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7748, "saves_inside_box": 2.1704, "possession_lost": 7.9481, "duels_won": 0.6067, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1353, "won_contest": 0.1353, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3251, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5109, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0273, "shots_faced": 16.2, "expected_saves": 3.97, "high_pressure_saves": 1.36, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1679, "fifa_rank": 1234.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8778, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1362, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8864, "accurate_pass": 19.9729, "total_long_balls": 11.7594, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8915, "touches": 39.3259, "clearances": 1.2067, "ball_recovery": 10.1573, "high_claims": 0.8258, "punches": 0.8466, "aerial_won": 0.0422, "sweeper_actions": 0.7748, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7748, "saves_inside_box": 2.1704, "possession_lost": 7.9481, "duels_won": 0.6067, "duels_lost": 0.0001, "total_contest": 0.1353, "won_contest": 0.1353, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.3251, "total_own_half_passes": 18.2557, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.5109, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.0273, "shots_faced": 16.2, "expected_saves": 3.97, "high_pressure_saves": 1.36, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello, Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8778, "goals_prevented": -0.0025, "rating": 7.1362, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.8864, "accurate_pass": 19.9729, "total_long_balls": 11.7594, "accurate_long_balls": 3.8915, "touches": 39.3259, "clearances": 1.2067, "ball_recovery": 10.1573, "high_claims": 0.8258, "punches": 0.8466, "aerial_won": 0.0422, "sweeper_actions": 0.7748, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7748, "saves_inside_box": 2.1704, "possession_lost": 7.9481, "duels_won": 0.6067, "duels_lost": 0.0001, 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"effective_weight": 0.1554, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1284, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ] } ] } } ] }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1526627, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 184, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9426, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 56, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 37, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 73, "possession_lost": 7.4472, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.1388, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.1449, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0275, "expected_assists": 0.0866, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1266, "ball_carries": 19, "total_progression": 73, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741, "opponent_faced": "Isi Palazón", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0271, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.083, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421079, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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"clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416340, "match_date": "2026-09-03", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416308, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.4082 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1282 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0885 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0605 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0375 } ], "others": -0.0259, "total": 1.0029, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.352453 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.124623 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.084318 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058416 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.035833 } ], "others_margin": -0.025506 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5676559209823608, "model_output": 0.5677, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.061 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0269 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0158 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 0.5677, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06103 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.026859 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016222 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.015758 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.012734 } ], "others_margin": -0.012583 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.942595481872559, "model_output": 6.9426, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0689 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0385 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0112 } ], "others": -0.0184, "total": 6.9426, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.068892 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.038546 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.033835 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.011363 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.011246 } ], "others_margin": -0.018508 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 33, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0034, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8444, "tackles": 1.0609, "tackles_won": 0.6479, "clearances": 3.533, "aerial_won": 1.0063, "total_shots": 0.5696, "rating": 6.9426, "minutes": 84.24, "total_pass": 62.7722, "accurate_pass": 56.17, "duels_won": 2.852, "total_long_balls": 5.5779, "accurate_long_balls": 2.617, "total_own_half_passes": 36.9528, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.7243, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.8194, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.4457, "crosses_total": 0.0058, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 72.7313, "possession_lost": 7.4472, "dispossessed": 0.2046, "duels_lost": 2.5485, "aerial_lost": 1.3385, "total_contest": 0.4006, "won_contest": 0.2963, "ball_recovery": 2.2313, "challenges_lost": 0.3964, "fouls": 0.5099, "fouls_drawn": 1.1099, "blocks": 0.6542, "goals": 0.1406, 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"fifa_rank": 5023.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.942, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yoel Lago", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Enzo Leopold", "ranking": 4688 }, { "player_name": "Yannik Engelhardt", "ranking": 4689 }, { "player_name": "Adam Daghim", "ranking": 4690 }, { "player_name": "Badredine Bouanani", "ranking": 4691 }, { "player_name": "Aljoscha Kemlein", "ranking": 4692 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joel Latibeaudiere", "ranking": 4694 }, { "player_name": "Mats Rots", "ranking": 4695 }, { "player_name": "Ellis Simms", "ranking": 4696 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Højlund", "ranking": 4697 }, { "player_name": "Yannick Gerhardt", "ranking": 4698 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.785, "history_matches": 22, 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062317 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.060568 } ], "others_margin": 0.108875 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.38862594962120056, "model_output": 0.3886, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0873 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": -0.0462, "total": 0.3886, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.087288 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049553 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021126 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016911 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.011843 } ], "others_margin": -0.046091 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.941985130310059, "model_output": 6.942, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0662 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0273 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.026 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0128 } ], "others": 0.0492, "total": 6.942, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.066239 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.027321 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.026025 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015293 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012836 } ], "others_margin": 0.049099 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.487)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.177, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8261, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5309, "fouls_drawn": 1.3346, "blocks": 0.8873, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2985, "total_progression": 92.571, "progressive_carries": 0.6549, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.3882 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7000000, "quality_factor": 0.4866, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0281)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8188, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3773, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5357, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "blocks": 0.8873, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2985, "total_progression": 92.571, "progressive_carries": 0.6549, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.3882 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0281, "history_matches": 22, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9937, "prior_reliability": 0.2333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.3882, "after": 0.3773 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0, "after": 0.008 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8261, "after": 0.8188 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.177, "after": 1.1838 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.3346, "after": 1.329 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8188, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, 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"accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5357, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "blocks": 0.8873, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2985, "total_progression": 92.571, "progressive_carries": 0.6549, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.3882, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8188, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5357, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "blocks": 0.8873, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0178, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2985, "total_progression": 92.571, "progressive_carries": 0.6549, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.3882, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8188, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5357, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "blocks": 0.8873, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0247, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2985, "total_progression": 92.571, "progressive_carries": 0.6549, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.3882, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8224 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0178, "after": 0.0247 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8188, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5357, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "blocks": 0.8873, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0247, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8188, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5357, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "blocks": 0.8873, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0247, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2985, "total_progression": 92.571, "progressive_carries": 0.6549, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.3882, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0244, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8224, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0244, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0198, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.0137, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1838, "tackles": 1.4357, "tackles_won": 0.8188, "clearances": 5.1998, "aerial_won": 1.8258, "total_shots": 0.3882, "rating": 6.942, "minutes": 89.43, "total_pass": 57.1215, "accurate_pass": 53.3058, "duels_won": 4.1737, "total_long_balls": 3.6277, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5299, "total_own_half_passes": 39.2134, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1214, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.9081, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.1844, "crosses_total": 0.008, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.3529, "possession_lost": 4.4811, "dispossessed": 0.0953, "duels_lost": 3.8923, "aerial_lost": 2.1595, "total_contest": 0.0477, "won_contest": 0.0477, "ball_recovery": 3.542, "challenges_lost": 0.1066, "fouls": 1.5357, "fouls_drawn": 1.329, "blocks": 0.8873, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0247, "expected_assists": 0.015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 20.2985, "total_progression": 92.571, "progressive_carries": 0.6549, "key_pass": 0.0947, "shots_off_target": 0.3882, "opponent_faced": "Álvaro García", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0244, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0149, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8224, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0149, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0123, "squad_weight_total": 0.9297, "weight_share": 0.0133, "creation_factor": 0.8224, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1554, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1554, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1284, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marcos 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"progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.0237 } ], "others_margin": -0.023057 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5922516584396362, "model_output": 0.5923, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0543 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0286 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0252 } ], "others": 0.0057, "total": 0.5923, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.054266 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.030221 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9977, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0576, "tackles": 1.329, "tackles_won": 0.8087, "clearances": 3.7452, "aerial_won": 1.5889, "total_shots": 0.591, "rating": 7.0014, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 75.241, "accurate_pass": 67.8331, "duels_won": 3.5997, "total_long_balls": 8.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4701, "total_own_half_passes": 38.6858, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7197, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.1134, "crosses_total": 0.4382, "crosses_accurate": 0.0615, "touches": 87.9375, "possession_lost": 9.1589, "dispossessed": 0.3171, "duels_lost": 2.9596, "aerial_lost": 0.8146, "total_contest": 0.401, "won_contest": 0.2305, "ball_recovery": 4.8286, "challenges_lost": 0.4229, "fouls": 1.245, "fouls_drawn": 0.6617, "blocks": 0.4975, "goals": 0.0049, 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0.0048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0514, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.0138, "big_chances_created": 0.0518, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 32.2112, "total_progression": 185.6515, "progressive_carries": 2.5013, "key_pass": 0.0877, "shots_off_target": 0.577 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0817, "tackles": 1.329, "tackles_won": 0.8172, "clearances": 3.7452, "aerial_won": 1.5889, "total_shots": 0.5931, "rating": 7.0014, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 75.241, "accurate_pass": 67.8331, "duels_won": 3.5997, "total_long_balls": 8.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4701, "total_own_half_passes": 38.6858, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7197, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.1134, "crosses_total": 0.442, "crosses_accurate": 0.0615, "touches": 87.9375, "possession_lost": 9.1589, "dispossessed": 0.3171, "duels_lost": 2.9596, "aerial_lost": 0.8146, "total_contest": 0.401, "won_contest": 0.2305, "ball_recovery": 4.8286, "challenges_lost": 0.4229, "fouls": 1.2481, "fouls_drawn": 0.6627, "blocks": 0.4975, "goals": 0.0048, "goal_rate": 0.0048, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0514, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.0138, "big_chances_created": 0.0518, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 32.2112, "total_progression": 185.6515, "progressive_carries": 2.5013, "key_pass": 0.0877, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0817, "tackles": 1.329, "tackles_won": 0.8172, "clearances": 3.7452, "aerial_won": 1.5889, "total_shots": 0.5931, "rating": 7.0014, "minutes": 87.16, "total_pass": 75.241, "accurate_pass": 67.8331, "duels_won": 3.5997, "total_long_balls": 8.0134, "accurate_long_balls": 4.4701, "total_own_half_passes": 38.6858, "accurate_own_half_passes": 36.7197, "total_opp_half_passes": 36.5552, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 31.1134, "crosses_total": 0.442, "crosses_accurate": 0.0615, "touches": 87.9375, "possession_lost": 9.1589, "dispossessed": 0.3171, "duels_lost": 2.9596, "aerial_lost": 0.8146, "total_contest": 0.401, "won_contest": 0.2305, "ball_recovery": 4.8286, "challenges_lost": 0.4229, "fouls": 1.2481, "fouls_drawn": 0.6627, "blocks": 0.4975, "goal_rate": 0.0048, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0514, "expected_assists": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.0138, "big_chances_created": 0.0518, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 32.2112, "total_progression": 185.6515, "progressive_carries": 2.5013, "key_pass": 0.0877, "shots_off_target": 0.577, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Sergio Camello", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, 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{ "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0514, "after": 0.0714 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0377, "after": 0.0524 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2797 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1367 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0492 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0428 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0354 } ], "others": 0.0357, "total": 0.8178, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.27973 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136727 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.049157 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042829 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.035419 } ], "others_margin": 0.035628 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.77978515625, "model_output": 6.7798, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9990, quality 0.477)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9503, "expected_assists": 0.0914, "assists": 0.093, "assist_rate": 0.093, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.2372, "total_shots": 0.817, "rating": 6.7798, "minutes": 73.17, "total_pass": 25.2168, "accurate_pass": 20.0714, "duels_won": 3.1386, "total_long_balls": 1.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6749, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8918, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1796, "crosses_total": 1.32, "crosses_accurate": 0.1464, "touches": 43.1165, "possession_lost": 10.6733, "dispossessed": 0.6586, "duels_lost": 3.9132, "aerial_won": 0.5866, "aerial_lost": 1.073, "interceptions": 0.9972, "tackles_won": 0.6224, "tackles": 0.7233, "clearances": 1.1128, "total_contest": 1.8427, "won_contest": 1.0051, "challenges_lost": 0.2408, "fouls": 1.1092, "fouls_drawn": 0.8236, "blocks": 0.165, "big_chances_created": 0.1279, "big_chances_missed": 0.0354, "xgot": 0.0015, "ball_carries": 6.8834, "total_progression": 29.3053, "progressive_carries": 1.6005, "shots_off_target": 0.5797 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6200000, "quality_factor": 0.4769, "boost_factor": 0.999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9503, "expected_assists": 0.0914, "assists": 0.093, "assist_rate": 0.093, "expected_goals": 0.0513, "goals": 0.0541, "goal_rate": 0.0541, "shots_on_target": 0.2372, "total_shots": 0.817, "rating": 6.7798, "minutes": 73.17, "total_pass": 25.2168, "accurate_pass": 20.0714, "duels_won": 3.1386, "total_long_balls": 1.4957, 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"expected_assists": 0.0914, "assists": 0.093, "assist_rate": 0.093, "expected_goals": 0.0526, "goals": 0.0555, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "shots_on_target": 0.2433, "total_shots": 0.8381, "rating": 6.7798, "minutes": 73.17, "total_pass": 25.2168, "accurate_pass": 20.0714, "duels_won": 3.1386, "total_long_balls": 1.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6749, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8918, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1796, "crosses_total": 1.32, "crosses_accurate": 0.1464, "touches": 43.1165, "possession_lost": 10.6733, "dispossessed": 0.6586, "duels_lost": 3.9132, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.073, "interceptions": 0.9972, "tackles_won": 0.6224, "tackles": 0.7233, "clearances": 1.1128, "total_contest": 1.8427, "won_contest": 1.0051, "challenges_lost": 0.2408, "fouls": 1.1092, "fouls_drawn": 0.8236, "blocks": 0.165, "big_chances_created": 0.1279, "big_chances_missed": 0.0363, "xgot": 0.0015, "ball_carries": 6.8834, 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"role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0526 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.5866, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.817, "after": 0.8381 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5797, "after": 0.5947 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2372, "after": 0.2433 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9503, "expected_assists": 0.0914, "assist_rate": 0.093, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0526, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2433, "total_shots": 0.8381, "rating": 6.7798, "minutes": 73.17, "total_pass": 25.2168, "accurate_pass": 20.0714, "duels_won": 3.1386, "total_long_balls": 1.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6749, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5602, 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Valentín", "opponent_faced": "Óscar Valentín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9503, "expected_assists": 0.127, "assist_rate": 0.093, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0555, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2433, "total_shots": 0.8381, "rating": 6.7798, "minutes": 73.17, "total_pass": 25.2168, "accurate_pass": 20.0714, "duels_won": 3.1386, "total_long_balls": 1.4957, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6749, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5602, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.8918, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.6565, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.1796, "crosses_total": 1.32, "crosses_accurate": 0.1464, "touches": 43.1165, "possession_lost": 10.6733, "dispossessed": 0.6586, "duels_lost": 3.9132, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 1.073, "interceptions": 0.9972, "tackles_won": 0.6224, "tackles": 0.7233, "clearances": 1.1128, "total_contest": 1.8427, "won_contest": 1.0051, "challenges_lost": 0.2408, "fouls": 1.1092, "fouls_drawn": 0.8236, "blocks": 0.165, "big_chances_created": 0.1279, "big_chances_missed": 0.0363, "xgot": 0.0021, "ball_carries": 6.8834, "total_progression": 29.3053, "progressive_carries": 1.6005, "shots_off_target": 0.5947, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0258, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Óscar Valentín", "opponent_faced": "Óscar Valentín", "antagonist_source": 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"predicted": 0.6075084209442139, "model_output": 0.6075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2708 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1255 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0481 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0379 } ], "others": -0.0981, "total": 0.6075, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.270796 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125506 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04811 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 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"margin": 0.037104 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018547 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017369 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.009441 } ], "others_margin": -0.060287 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0018, quality 0.565)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6104, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assists": 0.0486, "assist_rate": 0.0486, "expected_goals": 0.0422, "goals": 0.0463, "goal_rate": 0.0463, "shots_on_target": 0.14, "total_shots": 0.5971, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 80.83, "total_pass": 41.7218, "accurate_pass": 38.4774, "duels_won": 4.2563, "total_long_balls": 1.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0302, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7978, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1309, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3465, "crosses_total": 0.0795, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.4266, "possession_lost": 5.7986, "dispossessed": 0.8091, "duels_lost": 4.5199, "aerial_won": 0.1933, "aerial_lost": 1.0286, "interceptions": 1.1237, "tackles_won": 1.364, "tackles": 2.4203, "clearances": 0.8427, 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"after": 1.222 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1237, "after": 1.1184 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6104, "expected_assists": 0.043, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.0422, "goals": 0.0458, "goal_rate": 0.0458, "shots_on_target": 0.1384, "total_shots": 0.598, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 80.83, "total_pass": 41.7218, "accurate_pass": 38.4774, "duels_won": 4.2563, "total_long_balls": 1.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0302, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7978, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1309, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3465, "crosses_total": 0.0786, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.4266, "possession_lost": 5.7986, "dispossessed": 0.8091, "duels_lost": 4.5199, "aerial_won": 0.1933, "aerial_lost": 1.0286, "interceptions": 1.1184, "tackles_won": 1.3598, "tackles": 2.4203, "clearances": 0.8427, 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"attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Óscar Valentín", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.1306, "skill_edge": 0.0649, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.5816, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Óscar Valentín", "market_value": 1900000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.0477 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1933, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.598, "after": 0.6761 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.457, "after": 0.5167 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.1384, "after": 0.1565 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0859, "after": 0.0971 }, { "stat": "goals", 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"team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6104, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0663, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1565, "total_shots": 0.6761, "rating": 6.881, "minutes": 80.83, "total_pass": 41.7218, "accurate_pass": 38.4774, "duels_won": 4.2563, "total_long_balls": 1.6793, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0302, "total_own_half_passes": 17.7978, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.1309, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.9239, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21.3465, "crosses_total": 0.0786, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.4266, "possession_lost": 5.7986, "dispossessed": 0.8091, "duels_lost": 4.5199, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0286, "interceptions": 1.1184, "tackles_won": 1.3598, "tackles": 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-0.502927 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.167726 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.136655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117827 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.054475 } ], "others_margin": -0.167617 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4207577705383301, "model_output": 0.4208, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1336 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0528 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0091 } ], "others": 0.0161, "total": 0.4208, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.13361 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052801 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.014664 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.011047 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.009052 } ], "others_margin": 0.016051 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.791703701019287, "model_output": 6.7917, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0114 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0308, "total": 6.7917, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01668 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.015334 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012212 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011403 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.011326 } ], "others_margin": 0.030771 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9347, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0677, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4197, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6219, "crosses_total": 4.1626, "crosses_accurate": 1.3868, "touches": 59.0545, "possession_lost": 12.4767, "dispossessed": 0.5291, "duels_lost": 3.8018, "aerial_lost": 0.8623, "total_contest": 2.1257, "won_contest": 1.3254, "ball_recovery": 2.5799, "challenges_lost": 0.5932, "fouls": 1.2092, "fouls_drawn": 1.7784, "blocks": 0.2958, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1094, "shots_on_target": 0.0059, "big_chances_created": 0.1836, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 17.0997, "total_progression": 85.8752, "progressive_carries": 1.3563, "key_pass": 1.1854, "shots_off_target": 0.4138 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1700000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0086)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9317, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0686, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4161, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, 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4.157 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9317, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0686, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4196, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6219, "crosses_total": 4.157, "crosses_accurate": 1.3868, "touches": 59.0545, "possession_lost": 12.4767, "dispossessed": 0.5291, "duels_lost": 3.8018, "aerial_lost": 0.8623, "total_contest": 2.1257, "won_contest": 1.3254, "ball_recovery": 2.5799, "challenges_lost": 0.5932, "fouls": 1.2089, "fouls_drawn": 1.7832, "blocks": 0.2958, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1094, "shots_on_target": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1836, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 17.0997, "total_progression": 85.8752, "progressive_carries": 1.3563, "key_pass": 1.1854, "shots_off_target": 0.4138 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9317, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0686, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4196, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6219, "crosses_total": 4.157, "crosses_accurate": 1.3868, "touches": 59.0545, "possession_lost": 12.4767, "dispossessed": 0.5291, "duels_lost": 3.8018, "aerial_lost": 0.8623, "total_contest": 2.1257, "won_contest": 1.3254, "ball_recovery": 2.5799, "challenges_lost": 0.5932, "fouls": 1.2089, "fouls_drawn": 1.7832, "blocks": 0.2958, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.005, "assist_rate": 0.005, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1094, "shots_on_target": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1836, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 17.0997, "total_progression": 85.8752, "progressive_carries": 1.3563, "key_pass": 1.1854, "shots_off_target": 0.4138, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9317, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0686, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4196, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6219, "crosses_total": 4.157, "crosses_accurate": 1.3868, "touches": 59.0545, "possession_lost": 12.4767, "dispossessed": 0.5291, "duels_lost": 3.8018, "aerial_lost": 0.8623, "total_contest": 2.1257, "won_contest": 1.3254, "ball_recovery": 2.5799, "challenges_lost": 0.5932, "fouls": 1.2089, "fouls_drawn": 1.7832, "blocks": 0.2958, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0042, "expected_assists": 0.1094, "shots_on_target": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1836, "xgot": 0.0006, "ball_carries": 17.0997, "total_progression": 85.8752, "progressive_carries": 1.3563, "key_pass": 1.1854, "shots_off_target": 0.4138, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9317, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0686, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4196, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6219, "crosses_total": 4.157, "crosses_accurate": 1.3868, "touches": 59.0545, "possession_lost": 12.4767, "dispossessed": 0.5291, "duels_lost": 3.8018, "aerial_lost": 0.8623, "total_contest": 2.1257, "won_contest": 1.3254, "ball_recovery": 2.5799, "challenges_lost": 0.5932, "fouls": 1.2089, "fouls_drawn": 1.7832, "blocks": 0.2958, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0058, "expected_assists": 0.152, "shots_on_target": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1836, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 17.0997, "total_progression": 85.8752, "progressive_carries": 1.3563, "key_pass": 1.1854, "shots_off_target": 0.4138, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9225, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1094, "after": 0.152 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9317, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0686, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4196, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6219, "crosses_total": 4.157, "crosses_accurate": 1.3868, "touches": 59.0545, "possession_lost": 12.4767, "dispossessed": 0.5291, "duels_lost": 3.8018, "aerial_lost": 0.8623, "total_contest": 2.1257, "won_contest": 1.3254, "ball_recovery": 2.5799, "challenges_lost": 0.5932, "fouls": 1.2089, "fouls_drawn": 1.7832, "blocks": 0.2958, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0058, "expected_assists": 0.152, "shots_on_target": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1836, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 17.0997, "total_progression": 85.8752, "progressive_carries": 1.3563, "key_pass": 1.1854, "shots_off_target": 0.4138, "opponent_faced": "Jorge de Frutos", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9225, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3078, "fifa_rank": 1554.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9317, "tackles": 1.6492, "tackles_won": 1.0686, "clearances": 1.8526, "aerial_won": 0.5508, "total_shots": 0.4196, "rating": 6.7917, "minutes": 79.04, "total_pass": 34.6763, "accurate_pass": 28.8655, "duels_won": 4.7608, "total_long_balls": 4.1598, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0804, "total_own_half_passes": 16.544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.2435, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1323, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6219, "crosses_total": 4.157, "crosses_accurate": 1.3868, "touches": 59.0545, "possession_lost": 12.4767, "dispossessed": 0.5291, "duels_lost": 3.8018, "aerial_lost": 0.8623, "total_contest": 2.1257, "won_contest": 1.3254, "ball_recovery": 2.5799, "challenges_lost": 0.5932, "fouls": 1.2089, "fouls_drawn": 1.7832, "blocks": 0.2958, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.005, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0058, "expected_assists": 0.152, "shots_on_target": 0.0058, "big_chances_created": 0.1836, "xgot": 0.0008, "ball_carries": 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"expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0063 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0056 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0073, "total": 0.0502, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.235674 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.099957 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089316 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.086757 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.077976 } ], "others_margin": -0.135996 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.6777899265289307, "model_output": 0.6778, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1849 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0627 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.041 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0375 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0343 } ], "others": -0.0255, "total": 0.6778, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.236189 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.073967 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.051537 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.049594 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.047562 } ], "others_margin": -0.036996 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.731036186218262, "model_output": 6.731, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0505, "total": 6.731, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050847 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.014962 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010135 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.008907 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.008843 } ], "others_margin": -0.050468 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 40, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0009, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2408, "goals": 0.3118, "goal_rate": 0.3118, "shots_on_target": 0.6527, "total_shots": 1.5481, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.6784, "rating": 6.731, "minutes": 75.32, "total_pass": 15.9935, "accurate_pass": 11.6567, "duels_won": 3.9132, "total_long_balls": 1.089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3298, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0487, "crosses_total": 0.4968, "crosses_accurate": 0.1372, "touches": 30.5828, "possession_lost": 10.3262, "dispossessed": 1.0607, "duels_lost": 5.507, "aerial_lost": 1.6486, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 0.9999, "ball_recovery": 2.2034, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 1.3732, "fouls_drawn": 1.6186, "assists": 0.0627, "assist_rate": 0.0627, "interceptions": 0.2173, 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"after": 0.6445 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.6186, "after": 1.6265 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.4596, "after": 0.4538 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3732, "after": 1.3681 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2408, "goals": 0.3079, "goal_rate": 0.3079, "shots_on_target": 0.6445, "total_shots": 1.5398, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.6784, "rating": 6.731, "minutes": 75.32, "total_pass": 15.9935, "accurate_pass": 11.6567, "duels_won": 3.9132, "total_long_balls": 1.089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3298, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0487, "crosses_total": 0.4986, "crosses_accurate": 0.1372, "touches": 30.5828, "possession_lost": 10.3262, "dispossessed": 1.0607, "duels_lost": 5.507, "aerial_lost": 1.6486, "total_contest": 2.1003, "won_contest": 0.9999, "ball_recovery": 2.2034, "challenges_lost": 0.3951, "fouls": 1.3681, "fouls_drawn": 1.6265, "assists": 0.0619, "assist_rate": 0.0619, "interceptions": 0.2146, "tackles_won": 0.1953, "tackles": 0.5187, "clearances": 0.4988, "blocks": 0.0732, "big_chances_created": 0.0925, "big_chances_missed": 0.1008, "xgot": 0.3861, "offsides": 0.4538, "ball_carries": 8.3927, "total_progression": 7.3499, "progressive_carries": 1.3089, "shots_off_target": 0.8953 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2344, "goals": 0.2997, "goal_rate": 0.2997, "shots_on_target": 0.6274, "total_shots": 1.499, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "key_pass": 0.6784, "rating": 6.731, "minutes": 75.32, "total_pass": 15.9935, "accurate_pass": 11.6567, "duels_won": 3.9132, "total_long_balls": 1.089, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3298, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1567, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0487, 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"opponent_faced": "Florian Lejeune", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Florian Lejeune", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9735, "skill_edge": 0.0419, "height_edge": -0.06, "attacker_skill": 0.5306, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "market_value": 1700000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.2344 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.5398, "after": 1.499 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8953, "after": 0.8716 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6445, "after": 0.6274 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3861, "after": 0.3759 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3079, 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"history_matches": 36, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], 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0.08955267071723938, "model_output": 0.0896, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0121 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0069 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0048 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0044 } ], "others": 0.006, "total": 0.0896, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.171967 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.112523 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.077169 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.053212 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.051439 } ], "others_margin": 0.068338 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 1.2740339040756226, "model_output": 1.274, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1946 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0869 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0852 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0589 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.057 } ], "others": 0.2153, "total": 1.274, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.247242 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.093314 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.083737 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.057144 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.055389 } ], "others_margin": 0.185102 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.84798526763916, "model_output": 6.848, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0575 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0135 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.012 } ], "others": -0.0076, "total": 6.848, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057549 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013536 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013057 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.012172 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.012039 } ], "others_margin": -0.007759 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9997, quality 0.496)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goals": 0.1506, "goal_rate": 0.1506, "shots_on_target": 0.4222, "total_shots": 1.1549, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "key_pass": 1.2737, "rating": 6.848, "minutes": 72.59, "total_pass": 26.5633, "accurate_pass": 23.1593, "duels_won": 1.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.844, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.961, "crosses_total": 1.2633, "crosses_accurate": 0.4667, "touches": 36.7634, "possession_lost": 7.8501, "dispossessed": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 3.6574, "aerial_lost": 0.9348, "total_contest": 1.6696, "won_contest": 0.3356, "ball_recovery": 2.1085, "challenges_lost": 0.2817, "fouls": 0.6554, "fouls_drawn": 0.7823, "assists": 0.2587, "assist_rate": 0.2587, "interceptions": 0.4213, "tackles_won": 0.4867, "tackles": 0.5944, "clearances": 0.3536, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3885, "big_chances_missed": 0.1012, "xgot": 0.0773, "offsides": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 10.4824, "total_progression": 58.2068, "progressive_carries": 2.4303, "shots_off_target": 0.7327 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 7800000, "quality_factor": 0.4963, "boost_factor": 0.9997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0069)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goals": 0.1496, "goal_rate": 0.1496, "shots_on_target": 0.4193, "total_shots": 1.147, "expected_assists": 0.0895, "key_pass": 1.2737, "rating": 6.848, "minutes": 72.59, "total_pass": 26.5633, "accurate_pass": 23.1593, "duels_won": 1.7207, "total_long_balls": 0.844, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5478, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.2884, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.961, "crosses_total": 1.2802, "crosses_accurate": 0.4667, "touches": 36.7634, "possession_lost": 7.8501, "dispossessed": 0.5549, "duels_lost": 3.6574, "aerial_lost": 0.9348, "total_contest": 1.6696, "won_contest": 0.3356, "ball_recovery": 2.1085, "challenges_lost": 0.2817, "fouls": 0.6594, "fouls_drawn": 0.7812, "assists": 0.2569, "assist_rate": 0.2569, "interceptions": 0.4184, "tackles_won": 0.4834, "tackles": 0.5944, "clearances": 0.3536, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3885, "big_chances_missed": 0.1012, "xgot": 0.0773, "offsides": 0.019, "ball_carries": 10.4824, "total_progression": 58.2068, "progressive_carries": 2.4303, "shots_off_target": 0.7327 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0069, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8066, "prior_reliability": 0.0867, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.2633, "after": 1.2802 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.1549, "after": 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"xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 1, "data_confidence": 0.317, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 13.631139321914329, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.218, "market_value_adjustment": 0.9868, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Celta Vigo", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (1 historical appearances) to 13.6 expected mins (appearance prob 0.22); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3939, "tackles": 0.6887, "tackles_won": 0.3969, "clearances": 1.4935, "aerial_won": 0.7482, "total_shots": 0.1619, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 33.0, "accurate_pass": 32.0, "duels_won": 1.0, "total_long_balls": 1.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 24.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 24.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 41.0, "possession_lost": 1.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.0, "challenges_lost": 1.0, "fouls": 1.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0, "total_progression": 1.5655, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1619 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 1.0, "rating": 6.1 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 1.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 6.0, "aerialWon": 0.0, "totalClearance_p90": 12.0, "totalTackle": 1.0, "totalPass": 33.0 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.3938579857349396, "model_output": 0.3939, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8678, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4994 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0254 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0152 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0193, "total": 0.3939, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.141777, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.856703 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.066645 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.037881 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.036695 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.0265 } ], "others_margin": -0.048006 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6886621713638306, "model_output": 0.6887, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2493 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0414 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0245 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3878, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7858 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0356 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0316 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0296 } ], "others": 0.0261, "total": 0.6887, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.835258 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.060874 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.059879 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.051169 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.045635 } ], "others_margin": 0.038723 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.39690446853637695, "model_output": 0.3969, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4875 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": 0.0258 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0065, "total": 0.3969, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.856702 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.069193 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": 0.05134 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.039168 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.033494 } ], "others_margin": -0.01633 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.4935402870178223, "model_output": 1.4935, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2164 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.3696 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.2248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1377 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0582 } ], "others": 0.0629, "total": 1.4935, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.042889 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.26726 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.153911 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.097062 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.039892 } ], "others_margin": 0.043083 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7482318878173828, "model_output": 0.7482, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8304 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1083 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0761 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0607 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0397 } ], "others": 0.2155, "total": 0.7482, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.926928 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.222064 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.160962 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.11207 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.071924 } ], "others_margin": 0.339861 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.16191889345645905, "model_output": 0.1619, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2076 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0657 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.018 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": -0.0238, "total": 0.1619, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.207637 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065682 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017973 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.017317 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.01418 } ], "others_margin": -0.023734 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.742946624755859, "model_output": 6.7429, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 6.7429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.019518 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013147 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.01023 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.010063 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": -0.009036 } ], "others_margin": -0.012739 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9868, quality 0.452)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3887, "tackles": 0.6796, "tackles_won": 0.3917, "clearances": 1.4738, "aerial_won": 0.7384, "total_shots": 0.1598, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9868, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8944, "total_progression": 1.5448, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1598 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4200000, "quality_factor": 0.4523, "boost_factor": 0.9868, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0180)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3889, "tackles": 0.6796, "tackles_won": 0.3846, "clearances": 1.4738, "aerial_won": 0.7384, "total_shots": 0.1569, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 32.5644, "accurate_pass": 31.5776, "duels_won": 0.9868, "total_long_balls": 0.9868, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.6832, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8812, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8944, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 40.4588, "possession_lost": 0.9868, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.9736, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.9736, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.9762, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.002, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7.8944, "total_progression": 1.5448, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1598 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.018, "history_matches": 1, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.0333, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9868, "after": 0.9762 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3917, "after": 0.3846 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 13.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.22)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2945, "tackles": 0.5147, "tackles_won": 0.2913, "clearances": 1.1161, "aerial_won": 0.5592, "total_shots": 0.121, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.121, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.63, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7573, "appearance_probability": 0.218 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2945, "tackles": 0.5147, "tackles_won": 0.2913, "clearances": 1.1161, "aerial_won": 0.5592, "total_shots": 0.121, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.121, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2945, "tackles": 0.5147, "tackles_won": 0.2913, "clearances": 1.1161, "aerial_won": 0.5592, "total_shots": 0.121, "rating": 6.7429, "minutes": 13.63, "total_pass": 24.6605, "accurate_pass": 23.9133, "duels_won": 0.7473, "total_long_balls": 0.7473, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9349, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.7256, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.9783, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.6389, "possession_lost": 0.7473, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.4946, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.4946, "challenges_lost": 0.9868, "fouls": 0.7393, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9783, "total_progression": 1.1699, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.121, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.218, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.63, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, 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0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1539 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2685 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1371 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0755 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0602 } ], "others": -0.0369, "total": 1.6528, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.992359 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.191956 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.085427 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.044129 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.034998 } ], "others_margin": -0.022143 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8496697545051575, "model_output": 0.8497, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7732 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1077 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0406 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0409 } ], "others": 0.0148, "total": 0.8497, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.826845 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.164722 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.060997 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.052481 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.050284 } ], "others_margin": 0.017472 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2809, "model_output": 0.1617, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2389 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0242 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.011 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0081 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0508, "total": 0.1617, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.238863 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.024162 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.010963 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.008144 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.00744 } ], "others_margin": -0.050692 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.80626106262207, "model_output": 6.8063, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0673 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0314 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0151 } ], "others": 0.0237, "total": 6.8063, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.067332 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.031442 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.025707 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019456 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015147 } ], "others_margin": 0.023531 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 22, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9970, quality 0.451)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5168, "tackles": 0.6033, "tackles_won": 0.3348, "clearances": 1.6478, "aerial_won": 0.8471, "total_shots": 0.2801, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 21.61, "total_pass": 13.4668, "accurate_pass": 12.808, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.7036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7632, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1043, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 20.2326, "possession_lost": 0.9883, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.1597, "aerial_lost": 1.1627, "total_contest": 0.3294, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.0551, "challenges_lost": 0.2801, "fouls": 0.3875, "fouls_drawn": 0.3875, "blocks": 0.2801, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0619, "expected_assists": 0.004, "shots_on_target": 0.2801, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1363, "ball_carries": 2.991, "total_progression": 6.7413, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 4099999, "quality_factor": 0.4511, "boost_factor": 0.997, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 22, "history_shrink": 0.1852, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0112)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5148, "tackles": 0.6033, "tackles_won": 0.3368, "clearances": 1.6478, "aerial_won": 0.8471, "total_shots": 0.2807, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 21.61, "total_pass": 13.4668, "accurate_pass": 12.808, "duels_won": 2.4978, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 8.7036, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.7036, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.7632, 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"stats": { "interceptions": 0.657, "tackles": 0.77, "tackles_won": 0.4298, "clearances": 2.103, "aerial_won": 1.0811, "total_shots": 0.3582, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 27.58, "total_pass": 17.1872, "accurate_pass": 16.3464, "duels_won": 3.1878, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2382, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.8221, "possession_lost": 1.2613, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7563, "aerial_lost": 1.1627, "total_contest": 0.4204, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3466, "challenges_lost": 0.2801, "fouls": 0.4915, "fouls_drawn": 0.4915, "blocks": 0.3575, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.174, "ball_carries": 3.8173, "total_progression": 8.6037, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.58, "projection_minutes": 21.61, "minutes_scale": 1.2763, "appearance_probability": 0.411 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.657, "tackles": 0.77, "tackles_won": 0.4298, "clearances": 2.103, "aerial_won": 1.0811, "total_shots": 0.3582, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 27.58, "total_pass": 17.1872, "accurate_pass": 16.3464, "duels_won": 3.1878, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2382, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.8221, "possession_lost": 1.2613, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7563, "aerial_lost": 1.1627, "total_contest": 0.4204, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3466, "challenges_lost": 0.2801, "fouls": 0.4915, "fouls_drawn": 0.4915, "blocks": 0.3575, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.174, "ball_carries": 3.8173, "total_progression": 8.6037, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.657, "tackles": 0.77, "tackles_won": 0.4298, "clearances": 2.103, "aerial_won": 1.0811, "total_shots": 0.3582, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 27.58, "total_pass": 17.1872, "accurate_pass": 16.3464, "duels_won": 3.1878, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2382, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.8221, "possession_lost": 1.2613, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7563, "aerial_lost": 1.1627, "total_contest": 0.4204, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3466, "challenges_lost": 0.2801, "fouls": 0.4915, "fouls_drawn": 0.4915, "blocks": 0.3575, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.174, "ball_carries": 3.8173, "total_progression": 8.6037, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.411, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.58, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.411, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.657, "tackles": 0.77, "tackles_won": 0.4298, "clearances": 2.103, "aerial_won": 1.0811, "total_shots": 0.3582, "rating": 6.8063, "minutes": 27.58, "total_pass": 17.1872, "accurate_pass": 16.3464, "duels_won": 3.1878, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0791, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.2382, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 25.8221, "possession_lost": 1.2613, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.7563, "aerial_lost": 1.1627, "total_contest": 0.4204, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3466, "challenges_lost": 0.2801, "fouls": 0.4915, "fouls_drawn": 0.4915, "blocks": 0.3575, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.079, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "shots_on_target": 0.3535, 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"M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 186, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 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0.01029 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.612, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "assists": 0.0661, "assist_rate": 0.0661, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "goals": 0.0508, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "shots_on_target": 0.1455, "total_shots": 0.416, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 4.5549, "total_progression": 28.963, "progressive_carries": 0.56, "shots_off_target": 0.2704 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.64, "projection_minutes": 22.96, "minutes_scale": 0.986, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "creation_factor": 1.135 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0441, "after": 0.0324 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0515, "after": 0.0379 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "creation_factor": 1.135, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3941, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "creation_factor": 1.135, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "scorer_weight": 0.0345, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0366, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "creation_factor": 1.135, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0366, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "provider_weight": 0.043, "squad_weight_total": 0.9297, "weight_share": 0.0463, "creation_factor": 1.135, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1554, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1554, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1284, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ] } ] } } ] }, "Miguel Román": { "player_id": 1398526, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 14400000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assist_rate": 0.0978, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, 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0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4002 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0291 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0198 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": -0.1301, "total": 0.4429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.400161 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.029058 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.021924 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.019761 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.018503 } ], "others_margin": -0.130263 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.00272274017334, "model_output": 7.0027, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1054 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0866 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0844 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": 0.0022, "total": 7.0027, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.105437 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.086562 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084363 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.027037 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.014275 } ], "others_margin": 0.002165 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, "fouls_drawn": 0.6168, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4058, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16.1961, "total_progression": 73.216, "progressive_carries": 0.4973, "shots_off_target": 0.4187, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7677, "expected_assists": 0.0887, "assist_rate": 0.0978, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goal_rate": 0.0597, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2418, "total_shots": 0.6605, "rating": 7.0027, "minutes": 34.88, "total_pass": 30.5823, "accurate_pass": 26.6852, "duels_won": 2.5534, "total_long_balls": 2.7573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3955, "total_own_half_passes": 9.2973, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.4042, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.281, "crosses_total": 1.0947, "crosses_accurate": 0.7249, "touches": 36.8367, "possession_lost": 5.2801, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.2905, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.1484, "interceptions": 0.1872, "tackles_won": 0.7023, "tackles": 1.5666, "clearances": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.6705, "won_contest": 0.3624, "challenges_lost": 0.7653, "fouls": 0.6021, "fouls_drawn": 0.6168, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.4058, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1047, "ball_carries": 16.1961, "total_progression": 73.216, "progressive_carries": 0.4973, "shots_off_target": 0.4187, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.414, "bench_expected_minutes": 34.88, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.414, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"player_id": 1126779, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 22, 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"contribution": -0.226 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 0.3959, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.39413 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043238 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.037951 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.035209 } ], "others_margin": 0.011051 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.613741874694824, "model_output": 6.6137, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "shots_on_target": 0.1989, "total_shots": 0.5452, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.3975, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 7.9771, "accurate_pass": 6.251, "duels_won": 1.7845, "total_long_balls": 0.1026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0664, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.2427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0071, "touches": 13.0841, "possession_lost": 3.1664, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.1381, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4414, "won_contest": 0.1235, "ball_recovery": 0.405, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.6741, "assists": 0.1506, "assist_rate": 0.1506, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.2598, "tackles": 0.804, "clearances": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.0116, "big_chances_created": 0.2373, "big_chances_missed": 0.1501, "xgot": 0.0883, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9737, "total_progression": 19.6159, "progressive_carries": 0.8596, "shots_off_target": 0.3463 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0121)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.1995, "total_shots": 0.5432, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.3975, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 7.9771, "accurate_pass": 6.251, "duels_won": 1.7845, "total_long_balls": 0.1026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0664, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.2428, "crosses_accurate": 0.0071, "touches": 13.0841, "possession_lost": 3.1664, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.1381, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4414, "won_contest": 0.1235, "ball_recovery": 0.405, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.6784, "fouls_drawn": 0.6826, "assists": 0.1488, "assist_rate": 0.1488, "interceptions": 0.0702, "tackles_won": 0.2597, "tackles": 0.804, "clearances": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.0116, "big_chances_created": 0.2373, "big_chances_missed": 0.1501, "xgot": 0.0883, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9737, "total_progression": 19.6159, "progressive_carries": 0.8596, "shots_off_target": 0.3463 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0121, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3008, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6741, "after": 0.6826 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6836, "after": 0.6784 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.1 to 30.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assists": 0.1671, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0992, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 30.4, "projection_minutes": 27.07, "minutes_scale": 1.123, "appearance_probability": 0.445 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assists": 0.1671, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0992, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0992, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.445 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0702, "after": 0.0434 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.0198 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3324, "fifa_rank": 1981.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "scorer_weight": 0.0368, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.0256, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "appearance_weight": 0.445, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0194, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0194, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "provider_weight": 0.0248, "squad_weight_total": 0.9297, "weight_share": 0.0266, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.445, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1554, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1554, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1284, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ] } ] } } ] }, "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "player_id": 1173575, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 184, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 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"expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4507, "combined_rank_score": 2528.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 792.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6103, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jones El-Abdellaoui", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Arthur Cabral", "ranking": 4502 }, { "player_name": "Iván Colman", "ranking": 4503 }, { "player_name": 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0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2603 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0134 } ], "others": -0.0496, "total": 0.3362, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.470189 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.065284 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.044487 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.042261 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.03528 } ], "others_margin": -0.137696 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.610306739807129, "model_output": 6.6103, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0632, "total": 6.6103, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066374 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.028291 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.013953 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.00979 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.009507 } ], "others_margin": -0.063189 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0602, "goal_rate": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.2234, "total_shots": 0.5275, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3362, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3041 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.2236, "total_shots": 0.5273, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3362, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3041 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0632, "after": 0.0467 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0307, "after": 0.0227 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0447, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0447, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "scorer_weight": 0.0498, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.0346, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0447, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0222, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0222, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0182, "squad_weight_total": 0.9297, "weight_share": 0.0195, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1554, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1554, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1284, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "player_id": 1173575, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 184, "market_value": 8400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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-0.063189 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 25, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9999, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0602, "goal_rate": 0.0602, "shots_on_target": 0.2234, "total_shots": 0.5275, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3362, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0788, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4167, "fouls_drawn": 0.1912, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1425, "tackles_won": 0.1897, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.108, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3041 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 0.9999, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 25, "history_shrink": 0.1667, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goals": 0.0598, "goal_rate": 0.0598, "shots_on_target": 0.2236, "total_shots": 0.5273, "expected_assists": 0.026, "key_pass": 0.3362, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 21.84, "total_pass": 4.2801, "accurate_pass": 3.2745, "duels_won": 0.8029, "total_long_balls": 0.1336, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.1878, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4626, "crosses_total": 1.0763, "crosses_accurate": 0.2068, "touches": 10.5106, "possession_lost": 3.9777, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 1.8731, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.5417, "won_contest": 0.1469, "ball_recovery": 1.1911, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4172, "fouls_drawn": 0.1916, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1415, "tackles_won": 0.1883, "tackles": 0.2121, "clearances": 0.3375, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1039, "xgot": 0.0429, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 3.9493, "total_progression": 26.6205, "progressive_carries": 1.2139, "shots_off_target": 0.3041 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 25, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2427, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.8 to 25.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.8, "projection_minutes": 21.84, "minutes_scale": 1.1813, "appearance_probability": 0.532 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goals": 0.0706, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0507, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.532 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0632, "after": 0.0467 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0307, "after": 0.0227 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 72.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4507, "fifa_rank": 4264.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 72.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0447, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0447, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "scorer_weight": 0.0498, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.0346, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "appearance_weight": 0.532, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0706, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2641, "total_shots": 0.6234, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "key_pass": 0.3972, "rating": 6.6103, "minutes": 25.8, "total_pass": 5.0562, "accurate_pass": 3.8682, "duels_won": 0.9485, "total_long_balls": 0.1578, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7658, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9091, "crosses_total": 1.2715, "crosses_accurate": 0.2443, "touches": 12.4164, "possession_lost": 4.6989, "dispossessed": 0.6981, "duels_lost": 2.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.3395, "total_contest": 0.6399, "won_contest": 0.1735, "ball_recovery": 1.4071, "challenges_lost": 0.1377, "fouls": 0.4928, "fouls_drawn": 0.2263, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1672, "tackles_won": 0.2224, "tackles": 0.2506, "clearances": 0.3987, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0375, "offsides": 0.109, "ball_carries": 4.6654, "total_progression": 31.4473, "progressive_carries": 1.434, "shots_off_target": 0.3592, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.532, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.8, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0447, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0222, "finishing_factor": 1.0654, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": 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0.1448, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.648676 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.145203 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.060204 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.056658 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.030197 } ], "others_margin": -0.135108 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4139530062675476, "model_output": 0.414, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3896 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0373 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": -0.0897, "total": 0.414, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.389577 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04592 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037301 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.023936 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.018708 } ], "others_margin": -0.089753 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.763554096221924, "model_output": 6.7636, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1066 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0146 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": 0.0104, "total": 6.7636, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.106566 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.045465 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015684 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014565 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.011396 } ], "others_margin": 0.01029 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 11, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0049, quality 0.606)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.612, "expected_assists": 0.0522, "assists": 0.0661, "assist_rate": 0.0661, "expected_goals": 0.0447, "goals": 0.0508, "goal_rate": 0.0508, "shots_on_target": 0.1455, "total_shots": 0.416, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.96, "total_pass": 10.2166, "accurate_pass": 7.8369, "duels_won": 1.1124, "total_long_balls": 1.2289, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6384, "total_own_half_passes": 2.7555, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9591, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.4611, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.8779, "crosses_total": 0.1525, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.1558, "possession_lost": 3.7668, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5607, "aerial_won": 0.0581, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2651, "tackles_won": 0.1539, "tackles": 0.2847, "clearances": 0.1308, "total_contest": 0.6707, "won_contest": 0.5024, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6528, "fouls_drawn": 0.2673, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1418, "ball_carries": 4.5549, "total_progression": 28.963, "progressive_carries": 0.56, "shots_off_target": 0.2704 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17500000, "quality_factor": 0.6058, "boost_factor": 1.0049, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.0 to 22.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.64, "projection_minutes": 22.96, "minutes_scale": 0.986, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assists": 0.0652, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goals": 0.0501, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0515, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0441, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1398, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "creation_factor": 1.135 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0441, "after": 0.0324 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0515, "after": 0.0379 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "creation_factor": 1.135, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3941, "fifa_rank": 3280.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7957, "crosses_total": 0.1504, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.9438, "possession_lost": 3.7141, "dispossessed": 0.4872, "duels_lost": 1.5389, "aerial_won": 0.0573, "aerial_lost": 0.2794, "interceptions": 0.2614, "tackles_won": 0.1517, "tackles": 0.2807, "clearances": 0.129, "total_contest": 0.6613, "won_contest": 0.4954, "challenges_lost": 0.1039, "fouls": 0.6437, "fouls_drawn": 0.2636, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1027, "ball_carries": 4.4912, "total_progression": 28.558, "progressive_carries": 0.5522, "shots_off_target": 0.2666, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "creation_factor": 1.135, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0314, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "scorer_weight": 0.0345, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.024, "finishing_factor": 1.0638, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6034, "expected_assists": 0.0379, "assist_rate": 0.0652, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0324, "goal_rate": 0.0501, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "total_shots": 0.4102, "rating": 6.7636, "minutes": 22.64, "total_pass": 10.0737, "accurate_pass": 7.7273, "duels_won": 1.0968, "total_long_balls": 1.2117, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6295, "total_own_half_passes": 2.717, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.9317, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3568, 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"name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.033379 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.03116 } ], "others_margin": -0.135847 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.028474431484937668, "model_output": 0.0285, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0177 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.004 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0031 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0025 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0023 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 0.0285, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.320663 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.089143 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074069 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.06577 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.064739 } ], "others_margin": -0.206089 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.39594560861587524, "model_output": 0.3959, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.226 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0279 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": 0.0042, "total": 0.3959, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.39413 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.061551 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.043238 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.037951 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.035209 } ], "others_margin": 0.011051 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.613741874694824, "model_output": 6.6137, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0573 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0089 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0083 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0083 } ], "others": -0.0659, "total": 6.6137, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.057307 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011087 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008856 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00828 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008272 } ], "others_margin": -0.065958 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 20, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0039, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "shots_on_target": 0.1989, "total_shots": 0.5452, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.3975, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 7.9771, "accurate_pass": 6.251, "duels_won": 1.7845, "total_long_balls": 0.1026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0664, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.2427, "crosses_accurate": 0.0071, "touches": 13.0841, "possession_lost": 3.1664, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.1381, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4414, "won_contest": 0.1235, "ball_recovery": 0.405, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.6836, "fouls_drawn": 0.6741, "assists": 0.1506, "assist_rate": 0.1506, "interceptions": 0.0695, "tackles_won": 0.2598, "tackles": 0.804, "clearances": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.0116, "big_chances_created": 0.2373, "big_chances_missed": 0.1501, "xgot": 0.0883, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9737, "total_progression": 19.6159, "progressive_carries": 0.8596, "shots_off_target": 0.3463 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0039, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0121)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0625, "goals": 0.0461, "goal_rate": 0.0461, "shots_on_target": 0.1995, "total_shots": 0.5432, "expected_assists": 0.0286, "key_pass": 0.3975, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 27.07, "total_pass": 7.9771, "accurate_pass": 6.251, "duels_won": 1.7845, "total_long_balls": 0.1026, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0664, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.3545, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1228, "crosses_total": 0.2428, "crosses_accurate": 0.0071, "touches": 13.0841, "possession_lost": 3.1664, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.1381, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4414, "won_contest": 0.1235, "ball_recovery": 0.405, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.6784, "fouls_drawn": 0.6826, "assists": 0.1488, "assist_rate": 0.1488, "interceptions": 0.0702, "tackles_won": 0.2597, "tackles": 0.804, "clearances": 0.1947, "blocks": 0.0116, "big_chances_created": 0.2373, "big_chances_missed": 0.1501, "xgot": 0.0883, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.9737, "total_progression": 19.6159, "progressive_carries": 0.8596, "shots_off_target": 0.3463 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0121, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3008, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Celta Vigo" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.6741, "after": 0.6826 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6836, "after": 0.6784 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 27.1 to 30.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.45)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assists": 0.1671, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0992, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 30.4, "projection_minutes": 27.07, "minutes_scale": 1.123, "appearance_probability": 0.445 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assists": 0.1671, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0992, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0992, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.28 (squad xG sum 0.9213, xG scale 1.3894, xA scale 1.3894, team xA 0.91 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.28, "squad_xg_sum": 0.9213, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6541, "team_expected_assists": 0.9087, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7099, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.3894, "xa_scale": 1.3894, "opponent_lambda": 1.704, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.445 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0702, "after": 0.0434 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0321, "after": 0.0198 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3324, "fifa_rank": 1981.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "scorer_weight": 0.0368, "squad_weight_total": 1.4379, "weight_share": 0.0256, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "appearance_weight": 0.445, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Ferrán Jutglà", "weight": 0.4006, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4006, "runner_up": "Pablo Durán", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3956 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0434, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.224, "total_shots": 0.6129, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "key_pass": 0.4464, "rating": 6.6137, "minutes": 30.4, "total_pass": 8.9584, "accurate_pass": 7.02, "duels_won": 2.004, "total_long_balls": 0.1152, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0746, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1362, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.753, "crosses_total": 0.2727, "crosses_accurate": 0.008, "touches": 14.6936, "possession_lost": 3.5559, "dispossessed": 0.2738, "duels_lost": 2.4011, "aerial_lost": 0.4449, "total_contest": 0.4957, "won_contest": 0.1387, "ball_recovery": 0.4548, "challenges_lost": 0.4179, "fouls": 0.7619, "fouls_drawn": 0.7666, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0788, "tackles_won": 0.2916, "tackles": 0.9029, "clearances": 0.2187, "blocks": 0.013, "big_chances_created": 0.2665, "big_chances_missed": 0.1686, "xgot": 0.0613, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.4625, "total_progression": 22.0289, "progressive_carries": 0.9653, "shots_off_target": 0.3889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.445, "bench_expected_minutes": 30.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.331, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0414, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0194, "finishing_factor": 0.8469, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0194, "assist_rate": 0.1671, "provider_weight": 0.0248, "squad_weight_total": 0.9297, "weight_share": 0.0266, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.445, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "weight": 0.1554, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1554, "runner_up": "Javier Rueda", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1284, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.28, "expected_assists": 0.91, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 451, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 6.88, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Isi Palazón", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Javi Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.0869, "xg_multiplier": 0.7629, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isi Palazón (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Javi Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.76 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.087 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Camello", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.522, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2928, "xg_multiplier": 0.9358, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Camello (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Javi Rodríguez and Marcos Alonso in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.293 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jorge de Frutos", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.522, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1334, "xg_multiplier": 0.9123, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jorge de Frutos (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Javi Rodríguez and Marcos Alonso in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Álvaro García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Marcos Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.522, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2308, "xg_multiplier": 0.8373, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álvaro García (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Javi Rodríguez and Marcos Alonso in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.84 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.231 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Aleix Febas", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Adrià Pedrosa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.0425, "xg_multiplier": 0.9819, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrià Pedrosa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aleix Febas (LWB) is evenly matched against Adrià Pedrosa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilaix Moriba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.565, "defenders": [ "Óscar Valentín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.539, "xg_contribution": 0.0477, "xg_multiplier": 1.1306, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Óscar Valentín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.461 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilaix Moriba (CM) is slightly favored against Óscar Valentín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Javier Rueda", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Óscar Valentín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.0526, "xg_multiplier": 1.0258, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Óscar Valentín", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Rueda (CM) is evenly matched against Óscar Valentín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ferrán Jutglà", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Florian Lejeune" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.432, "xg_contribution": 0.2344, "xg_multiplier": 0.9735, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.568 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferrán Jutglà (SS) is evenly matched against Florian Lejeune in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.234 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Álvarez", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 7800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.496, "defenders": [ "Florian Lejeune" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.42, "xg_contribution": 0.1349, "xg_multiplier": 0.9566, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.58 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Álvarez (SS) is evenly matched against Florian Lejeune in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Durán", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.448, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2278, "xg_multiplier": 0.9281, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florian Lejeune", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Mujaid Sadick", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Durán (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Florian Lejeune and Mujaid Sadick in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.228 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.437, "away_midfield_power": 0.502, "home_creative_power": 0.416, "away_creative_power": 0.427, "home_defensive_power": 0.372, "away_defensive_power": 0.427, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.466, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Óscar Valentín", "Unai López", "Isi Palazón" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Javier Rueda", "Aleix Febas", "Ilaix Moriba" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Isi Palazón vs Ilaix Moriba", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.991, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.012 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.704, "away_lambda": 1.28, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Isi Palazón": { "opponents": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Camello": { "opponents": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Marcos Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jorge de Frutos": { "opponents": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Marcos Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álvaro García": { "opponents": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Marcos Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrià Pedrosa": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Óscar Valentín": { "opponents": [ "Ilaix Moriba", "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Florian Lejeune": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Hugo Álvarez", "Pablo Durán" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mujaid Sadick": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Durán" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai López": { "opponents": [ "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Emil Audero": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Iván Balliu": { "opponents": [ "Ferrán Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Javi Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Isi Palazón", "Sergio Camello", "Jorge de Frutos", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcos Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Camello", "Jorge de Frutos", "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aleix Febas": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Pedrosa", "Isi Palazón" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Óscar Valentín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Rueda": { "opponents": [ "Óscar Valentín", "Unai López" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ferrán Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Florian Lejeune" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Hugo Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Florian Lejeune" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pablo Durán": { "opponents": [ "Florian Lejeune", "Mujaid Sadick" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos", "Sergio Camello" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yoel Lago": { "opponents": [ "Álvaro García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Galán": { "opponents": [ "Jorge de Frutos" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Isi Palazón vs Ilaix Moriba will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 0.74. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9772, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.041, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.036, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9928, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0095, "home_midfield_factor": 0.991, "away_midfield_factor": 1.012, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4586, "away_avg_quality": 0.4952, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0365, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5132, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.4578, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3466, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0929, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0511, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0297, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7439, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 0.9439 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.991, "result": 0.9354 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9354 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.2551 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8957, "result": 1.1242 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9772, "result": 1.0986 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9928, "result": 1.0907 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.041, "result": 1.1317 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1317, "result": 1.1317, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0929, "factor": 0.9703, "pre": 1.1317, "result": 1.0981 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0981 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1598, "result": 1.2578 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2469, "result": 1.0273 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0273, "result": 1.027, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.3, "result": 1.335 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9929, "pre": 1.335, "result": 1.3255, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.326 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.326 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.326, "result": 1.326, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.262, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.704 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7399, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8924 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.012, "result": 0.9031 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9031 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9031 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.032, "result": 0.932 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 0.942 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 1.0095, "result": 0.9509 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.036, "result": 0.9869 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9869, "result": 0.9869, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0929, "factor": 1.0511, "pre": 0.9869, "result": 1.0373 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0373 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1623, "result": 1.1993 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.2463, "result": 0.982 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.982, "result": 0.982, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.031 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0071, "pre": 1.031, "result": 1.0383, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.038 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.038 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.038, "result": 1.038, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.262, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 1.28 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1598, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1623, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Celta Vigo", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_per90": 0.25, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.246, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.326, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.038, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0273, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.982, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.262, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.704, "final_away_lambda": 1.28 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8957, "attack_index": 1.001, "defense_concede_index": 0.758, "form_multiplier": 0.993, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.13, "team_ppg": 1.15, "opponent_ppg": 1.26 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.032, "attack_index": 0.849, "defense_concede_index": 1.269, "form_multiplier": 1.007, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.27, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.9, "team_ppg": 1.26, "opponent_ppg": 1.15 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Rayo Vallecano vs Celta. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-3 (duel lambdas: Home 1.027, Away 0.982). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.704, Away 1.280 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_squad": "Celta Vigo", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.25, "away_goals_per90": 0.25, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.247, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.246, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.704, "away_lambda": 1.28, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.027, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.982 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.262, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:32:20Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }