{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Tottenham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0937, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0937, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0765, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Tottenham", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2532, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1197 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0937 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0907 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0765 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0743 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.063, "0-1": 0.0765, "0-2": 0.0486, "0-3": 0.0203, "0-4": 0.0063, "0-5": 0.0016, "1-0": 0.0937, "1-1": 0.1197, "1-2": 0.0743, "1-3": 0.031, "1-4": 0.0097, "1-5": 0.0024, "1-6": 0.0005, "2-0": 0.0724, "2-1": 0.0907, "2-2": 0.0568, "2-3": 0.0237, "2-4": 0.0074, "2-5": 0.0019, "3-0": 0.0369, "3-1": 0.0462, "3-2": 0.0289, "3-3": 0.0121, "3-4": 0.0038, "3-5": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0141, "4-1": 0.0177, "4-2": 0.0111, "4-3": 0.0046, "4-4": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0043, "5-1": 0.0054, "5-2": 0.0034, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0011, "6-1": 0.0014, "6-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4362, "draw": 0.2532, "away_win": 0.3106 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5604, "btts_no": 0.4396, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2859, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2168 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.95, "MCR": 7.06, "ATR": 6.85, "GK": 7.01 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.77, "MCR": 6.89, "ATR": 6.78, "GK": 6.89 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Tottenham 6W-0D-4L vs Crystal Palace over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Omar Marmoush", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.529, "away_lambda": 1.252, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 6, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0143, "away_multiplier": 0.9857 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1197, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4362, "draw": 0.2532, "away_win": 0.3106 }, "favorite": "Tottenham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4362, "fair_spread": 0.277, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.529, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.252, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5604, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Tottenham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2859, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2168, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Omar Marmoush (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.2612, "probability": 0.2299, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.3258, "probability": 0.2781, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sandro Tonali (Tottenham)", "estimate": 0.1679, "probability": 0.1546, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.1574, "probability": 0.1456, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 929, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.3, "possession_home_pct": 50.8, "possession_away_pct": 49.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Tottenham", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4362, "script": "Tottenham is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.28 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Crystal Palace must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Tottenham lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Crystal Palace chance creation leans on Jean-Philippe Mateta against Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Tottenham: starters carry the main goal usage through Omar Marmoush; bench watchlist: Sávio, Mykhailo Mudryk, Destiny Udogie.", "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ismaïla Sarr, Jørgen Strand Larsen, Quinten Timber.", "Assist usage should flow through Sandro Tonali; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Tottenham tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Crystal Palace is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Tottenham.", "Crystal Palace wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Tottenham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Antonín Kinský": { "player_id": 1031251, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 190, "market_value": 18900000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 43, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 22, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.079, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.0, "opponent_faced": "Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363893, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 36, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 0, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.3476 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363890, "match_date": "2026-10-19", "home_team": "Tottenham 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"ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.3895 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363870, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.2381 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363647, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6861 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, 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"season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363242, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.1213 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.0461 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 21, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.6846 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2750, "combined_rank_score": 952.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 502.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8571, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 1402.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0117, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonín Kinský", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Vilius Armalas", "ranking": 2745 }, { "player_name": "Egor Parkhomenko", "ranking": 2746 }, { "player_name": "Ruiz de Galarreta", "ranking": 2747 }, { "player_name": "Brian Brobbey", "ranking": 2748 }, { "player_name": "Matías Campos López", "ranking": 2749 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Austin Ludwik", "ranking": 2751 }, { "player_name": "Tae-in Jung", "ranking": 2752 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Icardi", "ranking": 2753 }, { "player_name": "Ulugbek Abdullaev", "ranking": 2754 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Motpan", "ranking": 2755 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 15, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 15, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.0086, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Tottenham", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 180.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 15 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Tottenham, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 2.8628, "goals_prevented": 0.0666, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 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"match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1187, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1009, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0858, "rating": 7.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0729, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.062, "rating": 5.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0527, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0448, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0381, "rating": 6.9 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 15.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 1.0733, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0915, "goodHighClaim": 0.5871, "save_contribution": 1.9648, "possessionLostCtrl": 10.1658, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8348 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.862750768661499, "model_output": 2.8628, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9271, "items": [ { "name": "saves", "contribution": -0.0192 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0184 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0154 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0125 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", 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"commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0404, "total": 0.0666, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.036564 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.026985 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.015298 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.014843 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.014393 } ], "others_margin": 0.040521 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.011724472045898, "model_output": 7.0117, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0086, quality 0.620)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8874, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.3091, "accurate_pass": 23.1184, "total_long_balls": 14.6902, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9706, "touches": 42.5475, "clearances": 1.1149, "ball_recovery": 7.0155, "high_claims": 0.5921, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0.1998, "sweeper_actions": 1.0825, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0825, "saves_inside_box": 1.8014, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0.4343, "duels_lost": 0.1251, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2345, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7699 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18900000, "quality_factor": 0.6201, "boost_factor": 1.0086, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 15, "history_shrink": 0.25, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0217)", "stats": { "saves": 2.879, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.3091, "accurate_pass": 23.1184, "total_long_balls": 14.6902, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9706, "touches": 42.5475, "clearances": 1.1149, "ball_recovery": 7.0155, "high_claims": 0.5921, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0.1998, "sweeper_actions": 1.0825, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0825, "saves_inside_box": 1.8014, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0.4343, "duels_lost": 0.1251, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2294, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7699 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0217, "history_matches": 15, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.8874, "after": 2.879 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.2345, "after": 0.2294 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.879, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.3091, "accurate_pass": 23.1184, "total_long_balls": 14.6902, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9706, "touches": 42.5475, "clearances": 1.1149, "ball_recovery": 7.0155, "high_claims": 0.5921, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0.1998, "sweeper_actions": 1.0825, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0825, "saves_inside_box": 1.8014, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0.4343, "duels_lost": 0.1251, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2294, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7699 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.879, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.3091, "accurate_pass": 23.1184, "total_long_balls": 14.6902, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9706, "touches": 42.5475, "clearances": 1.1149, "ball_recovery": 7.0155, "high_claims": 0.5921, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0.1998, "sweeper_actions": 1.0825, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0825, "saves_inside_box": 1.8014, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0.4343, "duels_lost": 0.1251, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2294, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7699, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.079, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.53, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.079 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.879, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.3091, "accurate_pass": 23.1184, "total_long_balls": 14.6902, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9706, "touches": 42.5475, "clearances": 1.1149, "ball_recovery": 7.0155, "high_claims": 0.5921, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0.1998, "sweeper_actions": 1.0825, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0825, "saves_inside_box": 1.8014, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0.4343, "duels_lost": 0.1251, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2294, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7699, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.079, "shots_faced": 10.3, "expected_saves": 2.53, "high_pressure_saves": 0.86, "opponent_faced": "Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.879, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.3091, "accurate_pass": 23.1184, "total_long_balls": 14.6902, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9706, "touches": 42.5475, "clearances": 1.1149, "ball_recovery": 7.0155, "high_claims": 0.5921, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0.1998, "sweeper_actions": 1.0825, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0825, "saves_inside_box": 1.8014, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0.4343, "duels_lost": 0.1251, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2294, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7699, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.079, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.0, "opponent_faced": "Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 10.3, "after": 11.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 2.53, "after": 2.91 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.86, "after": 1.0 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 3 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.879, "goals_prevented": 0.0672, "rating": 7.0117, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 33.3091, "accurate_pass": 23.1184, "total_long_balls": 14.6902, "accurate_long_balls": 4.9706, "touches": 42.5475, "clearances": 1.1149, "ball_recovery": 7.0155, "high_claims": 0.5921, "punches": 0.7168, "aerial_won": 0.1998, "sweeper_actions": 1.0825, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0825, "saves_inside_box": 1.8014, "possession_lost": 10.2532, "duels_won": 0.4343, "duels_lost": 0.1251, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.2294, "total_own_half_passes": 22.3586, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.7699, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.079, "shots_faced": 11.9, "expected_saves": 2.91, "high_pressure_saves": 1.0, "opponent_faced": "Jean-Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, 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1.1133836507797241, "model_output": 1.1134, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.446 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.066 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0571 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0199, "total": 1.1134, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.446021 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.066033 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.057094 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025578 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.018659 } ], "others_margin": 0.019918 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.836191654205322, "model_output": 6.8362, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.035 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0129, "total": 6.8362, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034993 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014923 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.013985 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.009782 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.008019 } ], "others_margin": -0.012884 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0100, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.003, "tackles": 2.0856, "tackles_won": 1.3378, "clearances": 2.3388, "aerial_won": 0.6091, "total_shots": 1.1245, "rating": 6.8362, "minutes": 78.8, "total_pass": 41.2362, "accurate_pass": 31.1123, "duels_won": 4.2246, "total_long_balls": 7.2036, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9295, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6841, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4283, "crosses_total": 5.8317, "crosses_accurate": 2.1131, "touches": 67.7746, "possession_lost": 17.2848, "dispossessed": 0.5421, "duels_lost": 4.1907, "aerial_lost": 0.7888, "total_contest": 1.9823, "won_contest": 0.724, "ball_recovery": 2.9637, "challenges_lost": 0.8712, "fouls": 0.7302, "fouls_drawn": 0.8011, "blocks": 0.1574, "goals": 0.048, "goal_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0152, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "shots_on_target": 0.3872, "big_chances_created": 0.2315, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 13.4422, "total_progression": 54.9629, "progressive_carries": 1.3237, "key_pass": 1.6731, "shots_off_target": 0.7373 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.01, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0050)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9979, "tackles": 2.0856, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "clearances": 2.3388, "aerial_won": 0.6091, "total_shots": 1.1365, "rating": 6.8362, "minutes": 78.8, "total_pass": 41.2362, "accurate_pass": 31.1123, "duels_won": 4.2246, "total_long_balls": 7.2036, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9295, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6841, 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1.1245, "after": 1.1365 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 5.8317, "after": 5.82 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3378, "after": 1.3311 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.003, "after": 0.9979 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9979, "tackles": 2.0856, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "clearances": 2.3388, "aerial_won": 0.6091, "total_shots": 1.1365, "rating": 6.8362, "minutes": 78.8, "total_pass": 41.2362, "accurate_pass": 31.1123, "duels_won": 4.2246, "total_long_balls": 7.2036, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9295, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6841, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4283, "crosses_total": 5.82, "crosses_accurate": 2.1131, "touches": 67.7746, "possession_lost": 17.2848, "dispossessed": 0.5421, "duels_lost": 4.1907, "aerial_lost": 0.7888, "total_contest": 1.9823, "won_contest": 0.724, 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"Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9979, "tackles": 2.0856, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "clearances": 2.3388, "aerial_won": 0.6091, "total_shots": 1.1365, "rating": 6.8362, "minutes": 78.8, "total_pass": 41.2362, "accurate_pass": 31.1123, "duels_won": 4.2246, "total_long_balls": 7.2036, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9295, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6841, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4283, "crosses_total": 5.82, "crosses_accurate": 2.1131, "touches": 67.7746, "possession_lost": 17.2848, "dispossessed": 0.5421, "duels_lost": 4.1907, "aerial_lost": 0.7888, "total_contest": 1.9823, "won_contest": 0.724, "ball_recovery": 2.9637, "challenges_lost": 0.8712, "fouls": 0.7309, "fouls_drawn": 0.8059, "blocks": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.0478, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0151, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "expected_assists": 0.1348, "shots_on_target": 0.3897, "big_chances_created": 0.2315, "xgot": 0.0476, "ball_carries": 13.4422, "total_progression": 54.9629, "progressive_carries": 1.3237, "key_pass": 1.6731, "shots_off_target": 0.7373, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9979, "tackles": 2.0856, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "clearances": 2.3388, "aerial_won": 0.6091, "total_shots": 1.1365, "rating": 6.8362, "minutes": 78.8, "total_pass": 41.2362, "accurate_pass": 31.1123, "duels_won": 4.2246, "total_long_balls": 7.2036, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9295, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6841, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4283, "crosses_total": 5.82, "crosses_accurate": 2.1131, "touches": 67.7746, "possession_lost": 17.2848, "dispossessed": 0.5421, "duels_lost": 4.1907, "aerial_lost": 0.7888, "total_contest": 1.9823, "won_contest": 0.724, "ball_recovery": 2.9637, "challenges_lost": 0.8712, "fouls": 0.7309, "fouls_drawn": 0.8059, "blocks": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.0478, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0151, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1011, "expected_assists": 0.1661, "shots_on_target": 0.3897, "big_chances_created": 0.2315, "xgot": 0.0674, "ball_carries": 13.4422, "total_progression": 54.9629, "progressive_carries": 1.3237, "key_pass": 1.6731, "shots_off_target": 0.7373, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648, "opponent_faced": "Tyrick Mitchell", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8056, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0714, "after": 0.1011 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1348, "after": 0.1661 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9979, "tackles": 2.0856, "tackles_won": 1.3311, "clearances": 2.3388, "aerial_won": 0.6091, "total_shots": 1.1365, "rating": 6.8362, "minutes": 78.8, "total_pass": 41.2362, "accurate_pass": 31.1123, "duels_won": 4.2246, "total_long_balls": 7.2036, "accurate_long_balls": 2.9295, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9268, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6841, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3094, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.4283, "crosses_total": 5.82, "crosses_accurate": 2.1131, "touches": 67.7746, "possession_lost": 17.2848, "dispossessed": 0.5421, "duels_lost": 4.1907, "aerial_lost": 0.7888, "total_contest": 1.9823, "won_contest": 0.724, "ball_recovery": 2.9637, "challenges_lost": 0.8712, "fouls": 0.7309, "fouls_drawn": 0.8059, "blocks": 0.1574, "goal_rate": 0.0478, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0151, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1011, "expected_assists": 0.1661, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0101, quality 0.821)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7942, "tackles": 1.0479, "tackles_won": 0.6315, "clearances": 3.4247, "aerial_won": 1.6938, "total_shots": 0.5356, "rating": 6.9018, "minutes": 88.45, "total_pass": 68.6209, "accurate_pass": 64.7141, "duels_won": 4.4801, "total_long_balls": 2.4166, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5407, "total_own_half_passes": 46.2536, "accurate_own_half_passes": 44.6948, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3674, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20.0193, "crosses_total": 0.03, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.6901, "possession_lost": 4.5991, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 2.666, "aerial_lost": 1.3186, "total_contest": 0.2624, "won_contest": 0.2597, "ball_recovery": 3.4255, "challenges_lost": 0.2643, "fouls": 0.8891, "fouls_drawn": 1.2777, "blocks": 0.5897, "goals": 0.0108, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9995, quality 0.493)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7219, "tackles": 0.8803, "tackles_won": 0.5665, "clearances": 2.2128, "aerial_won": 0.7843, "total_shots": 0.5549, "rating": 6.7923, "minutes": 79.26, "total_pass": 47.3741, "accurate_pass": 40.2612, "duels_won": 1.5613, "total_long_balls": 3.7647, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0468, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.9975, "total_opp_half_passes": 28.6454, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 23.2637, "crosses_total": 4.498, "crosses_accurate": 0.7023, "touches": 61.9698, "possession_lost": 12.1916, "dispossessed": 0.0315, "duels_lost": 1.2228, "aerial_lost": 0.7971, "total_contest": 0.1555, "won_contest": 0.0984, "ball_recovery": 2.9347, "challenges_lost": 0.1297, "fouls": 0.2073, "fouls_drawn": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.142, "goals": 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"ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0215 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0194 } ], "others": -0.0218, "total": 6.9646, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.083725 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.035493 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029692 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.021491 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.019445 } ], "others_margin": -0.021859 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.868)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1026, "assists": 0.0896, "assist_rate": 0.0896, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.0654, "goal_rate": 0.0654, "shots_on_target": 0.2868, "total_shots": 0.9656, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2436, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8793, "tackles_won": 1.793, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7679, "fouls_drawn": 0.9461, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0432, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 68000000, "quality_factor": 0.8677, "boost_factor": 1.0111, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0066)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1026, "assists": 0.089, "assist_rate": 0.089, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9632, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0432, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0066, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9026, "prior_reliability": 0.1, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.2436, "after": 2.2567 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.9461, "after": 0.9398 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8793, "after": 0.8735 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1026, "assists": 0.089, "assist_rate": 0.089, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9637, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0432, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1026, "assists": 0.089, "assist_rate": 0.089, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goals": 0.065, "goal_rate": 0.065, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9637, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0432, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788, "opponent_faced": "Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1026, "assist_rate": 0.089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0725, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9637, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0432, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788, "opponent_faced": "Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9637, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0612, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788, "opponent_faced": "Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9388, "creation_factor": 0.9109 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0725, "after": 0.1027 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1026, "after": 0.1264 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9637, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0612, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788, "opponent_faced": "Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9388, "creation_factor": 0.9109, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1013, "fifa_rank": 698.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9637, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0612, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788, "opponent_faced": "Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0976, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9388, "creation_factor": 0.9109, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0976, "goal_rate": 0.065, "scorer_weight": 0.0964, "squad_weight_total": 1.6563, "weight_share": 0.0582, "finishing_factor": 0.9388, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Omar Marmoush", "weight": 0.3265, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3265, "runner_up": "Mathys Tel", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2496 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1981, "expected_assists": 0.1264, "assist_rate": 0.089, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1027, "goal_rate": 0.065, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2849, "total_shots": 0.9637, "rating": 6.9646, "minutes": 81.23, "total_pass": 55.9602, "accurate_pass": 50.5258, "duels_won": 4.8196, "total_long_balls": 5.4642, "accurate_long_balls": 3.394, "total_own_half_passes": 24.9442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.0178, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.508, "crosses_total": 2.2567, "crosses_accurate": 0.5547, "touches": 71.6607, "possession_lost": 9.9424, "dispossessed": 1.0604, "duels_lost": 4.3367, "aerial_won": 0.4006, "aerial_lost": 0.4471, "interceptions": 0.8735, "tackles_won": 1.7891, "tackles": 3.075, "clearances": 0.86, "total_contest": 0.9185, "won_contest": 0.398, "challenges_lost": 0.7436, "fouls": 1.7721, "fouls_drawn": 0.9398, "blocks": 0.1223, "big_chances_created": 0.141, "big_chances_missed": 0.0574, "xgot": 0.0612, "ball_carries": 16.3493, "total_progression": 59.4735, "progressive_carries": 1.5249, "shots_off_target": 0.6788, "opponent_faced": "Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Adam Wharton", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0976, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1187, "finishing_factor": 0.9388, "creation_factor": 0.9109, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1187, "assist_rate": 0.089, "provider_weight": 0.1151, "squad_weight_total": 1.1846, "weight_share": 0.0972, "creation_factor": 0.9109, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sandro Tonali", "weight": 0.1463, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1463, "runner_up": "Mohammed Kudus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.146, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Omar Marmoush" ] } ] } } ] }, "Sandro Tonali": { "player_id": 892673, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 181, "market_value": 83000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1679, "assist_rate": 0.1124, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0905, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 7.3103, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 60, "accurate_pass": 53, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 76, "possession_lost": 10.3178, "dispossessed": 1.1896, "duels_lost": 3, 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"model_output": 1.184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3418 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1233 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0409 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0355 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0353 } ], "others": -0.1511, "total": 1.184, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.341842 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.123285 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04093 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.035475 }, { "name": 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numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1652, "expected_assists": 0.1364, "assist_rate": 0.1124, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "goal_rate": 0.095, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3167, "total_shots": 1.2013, "rating": 7.3103, "minutes": 86.18, "total_pass": 60.2932, "accurate_pass": 53.4793, "duels_won": 4.4304, "total_long_balls": 3.0099, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5069, "total_own_half_passes": 24.8369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.474, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.4563, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30.0054, "crosses_total": 1.2909, "crosses_accurate": 0.4551, "touches": 75.6623, "possession_lost": 10.3178, "dispossessed": 1.1896, "duels_lost": 2.9486, "aerial_won": 0.6415, "aerial_lost": 0.3777, "interceptions": 0.8108, "tackles_won": 1.1523, "tackles": 2.2873, "clearances": 1.4147, "total_contest": 0.8019, "won_contest": 0.5102, "challenges_lost": 0.4689, "fouls": 0.7237, "fouls_drawn": 0.9992, "blocks": 0.2757, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8712 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0639, "after": 0.0905 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1364, "after": 0.1679 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1969 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0566 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0413 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0301 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0272 } ], "others": -0.03, "total": 0.7056, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.249769 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065613 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.050788 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.038731 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036271 } ], "others_margin": -0.041622 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.796132564544678, "model_output": 6.7961, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0562 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0104 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.008, "total": 6.7961, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.056184 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.016098 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0112 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0152, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1812, "goals": 0.2454, "goal_rate": 0.2454, "shots_on_target": 0.6616, "total_shots": 1.9409, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "key_pass": 0.7163, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 76.88, "total_pass": 16.3784, "accurate_pass": 14.5752, "duels_won": 3.9639, "total_long_balls": 0.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2452, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5251, "crosses_total": 1.2693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.8699, "possession_lost": 8.476, "dispossessed": 1.6574, "duels_lost": 6.0317, "aerial_lost": 1.0909, "total_contest": 2.8321, "won_contest": 1.641, "ball_recovery": 2.6483, "challenges_lost": 0.5827, "fouls": 1.6392, "fouls_drawn": 1.1432, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "interceptions": 0.1684, "tackles_won": 0.4938, "tackles": 0.8452, "clearances": 0.0668, "blocks": 0.0668, "big_chances_created": 0.0483, "big_chances_missed": 0.3936, "xgot": 0.2082, "offsides": 0.4084, "ball_carries": 9.3491, "total_progression": 32.0543, "progressive_carries": 1.4739, "shots_off_target": 1.2793 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 55000000, "quality_factor": 0.8399, "boost_factor": 1.0152, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1812, "goals": 0.2454, "goal_rate": 0.2454, "shots_on_target": 0.6616, "total_shots": 1.9409, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "key_pass": 0.7163, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 76.88, "total_pass": 16.3784, "accurate_pass": 14.5752, "duels_won": 3.9639, "total_long_balls": 0.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2452, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5251, "crosses_total": 1.2693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.8699, "possession_lost": 8.476, "dispossessed": 1.6574, "duels_lost": 6.0317, "aerial_lost": 1.0909, "total_contest": 2.8321, "won_contest": 1.641, "ball_recovery": 2.6483, "challenges_lost": 0.5827, "fouls": 1.6392, "fouls_drawn": 1.1432, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "interceptions": 0.1684, "tackles_won": 0.4938, "tackles": 0.8452, "clearances": 0.0668, "blocks": 0.0668, "big_chances_created": 0.0483, "big_chances_missed": 0.3936, "xgot": 0.2082, "offsides": 0.4084, "ball_carries": 9.3491, "total_progression": 32.0543, "progressive_carries": 1.4739, "shots_off_target": 1.2793 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1845, "goals": 0.2499, "goal_rate": 0.2499, "shots_on_target": 0.6738, "total_shots": 1.9766, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "key_pass": 0.7163, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 76.88, "total_pass": 16.3784, "accurate_pass": 14.5752, "duels_won": 3.9639, "total_long_balls": 0.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2452, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5251, "crosses_total": 1.2693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.8699, "possession_lost": 8.476, "dispossessed": 1.6574, "duels_lost": 6.0317, "aerial_lost": 1.0909, "total_contest": 2.8321, "won_contest": 1.641, "ball_recovery": 2.6483, "challenges_lost": 0.5827, "fouls": 1.6392, "fouls_drawn": 1.1432, "assists": 0.1179, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "interceptions": 0.1684, "tackles_won": 0.4938, "tackles": 0.8452, "clearances": 0.0668, "blocks": 0.0668, "big_chances_created": 0.0483, "big_chances_missed": 0.4008, "xgot": 0.212, "offsides": 0.4084, "ball_carries": 9.3491, "total_progression": 32.0543, "progressive_carries": 1.4739, "shots_off_target": 1.3028, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0184, 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"player": "Chris Richards", "market_value": 25000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7411 } ], "xg_override": 0.1845 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.9409, "after": 1.9766 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.2793, "after": 1.3028 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6616, "after": 0.6738 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3936, "after": 0.4008 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1845, "goal_rate": 0.2499, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6738, "total_shots": 1.9766, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "key_pass": 0.7163, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 76.88, "total_pass": 16.3784, "accurate_pass": 14.5752, "duels_won": 3.9639, "total_long_balls": 0.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2452, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5251, "crosses_total": 1.2693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.8699, "possession_lost": 8.476, "dispossessed": 1.6574, "duels_lost": 6.0317, "aerial_lost": 1.0909, "total_contest": 2.8321, "won_contest": 1.641, "ball_recovery": 2.6483, "challenges_lost": 0.5827, "fouls": 1.6392, "fouls_drawn": 1.1432, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1684, "tackles_won": 0.4938, "tackles": 0.8452, "clearances": 0.0668, "blocks": 0.0668, "big_chances_created": 0.0483, "big_chances_missed": 0.4008, "xgot": 0.212, "offsides": 0.4084, "ball_carries": 9.3491, "total_progression": 32.0543, "progressive_carries": 1.4739, "shots_off_target": 1.3028, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0184, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2612, "goal_rate": 0.2499, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6738, "total_shots": 1.9766, "expected_assists": 0.0687, "key_pass": 0.7163, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 76.88, "total_pass": 16.3784, "accurate_pass": 14.5752, "duels_won": 3.9639, "total_long_balls": 0.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2452, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5251, "crosses_total": 1.2693, 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"xgot": 0.3002, "offsides": 0.4084, "ball_carries": 9.3491, "total_progression": 32.0543, "progressive_carries": 1.4739, "shots_off_target": 1.3028, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0184, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 619, "fifa_rank": 382.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2612, "goal_rate": 0.2499, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6738, "total_shots": 1.9766, "expected_assists": 0.0687, "key_pass": 0.7163, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 76.88, "total_pass": 16.3784, "accurate_pass": 14.5752, "duels_won": 3.9639, "total_long_balls": 0.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2452, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1119, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.5251, "crosses_total": 1.2693, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 30.8699, "possession_lost": 8.476, "dispossessed": 1.6574, "duels_lost": 6.0317, "aerial_lost": 1.0909, "total_contest": 2.8321, "won_contest": 1.641, "ball_recovery": 2.6483, "challenges_lost": 0.5827, "fouls": 1.6392, "fouls_drawn": 1.1432, "assist_rate": 0.1179, 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"goals_allocated": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2299, "goal_rate": 0.2499, "scorer_weight": 0.3265, "squad_weight_total": 1.6563, "weight_share": 0.1971, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Omar Marmoush", "weight": 0.3265, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3265, "runner_up": "Mathys Tel", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2496 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2612, "goal_rate": 0.2499, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.6738, "total_shots": 1.9766, "expected_assists": 0.0687, "key_pass": 0.7163, "rating": 6.7961, "minutes": 76.88, "total_pass": 16.3784, "accurate_pass": 14.5752, "duels_won": 3.9639, "total_long_balls": 0.3494, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2452, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.1119, 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"opponent_defenders": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2299, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0664, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0664, "assist_rate": 0.1179, "provider_weight": 0.0859, "squad_weight_total": 1.1846, "weight_share": 0.0725, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sandro Tonali", "weight": 0.1463, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1463, "runner_up": "Mohammed Kudus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.146, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Omar Marmoush" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "Guglielmo Vicario": { "player_id": 553606, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": 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0.0619, "total_own_half_passes": 18.7918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.8384 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:28:35.350989+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 201, "rows": 7385 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-03-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.151, "rating": 7.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-15", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1283, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-05", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1091, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0927, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-22", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0788, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-02-10", "opponent": "Newcastle United", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.604)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6527, "goals_prevented": -0.0155, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 32.8801, "accurate_pass": 20.3198, "total_long_balls": 17.4478, "accurate_long_balls": 5.2211, "touches": 41.5353, "clearances": 1.1064, "ball_recovery": 7.5849, "high_claims": 0.832, "punches": 0.4039, "aerial_won": 0.1763, "sweeper_actions": 1.3688, "sweeper_accurate": 1.3688, "saves_inside_box": 1.9751, "possession_lost": 12.7143, "duels_won": 0.2968, "duels_lost": 0.0276, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0622, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8688, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.9074 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 17300000, "quality_factor": 0.6037, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 31, "history_shrink": 0.1389, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 5.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.14)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4701, "goals_prevented": -0.0027, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 5.05, "total_pass": 5.8269, "accurate_pass": 3.601, "total_long_balls": 3.092, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9253, "touches": 7.3607, "clearances": 0.1961, "ball_recovery": 1.3442, "high_claims": 0.1474, "punches": 0.0716, "aerial_won": 0.0312, "sweeper_actions": 0.2426, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2426, "saves_inside_box": 0.35, "possession_lost": 2.2532, "duels_won": 0.0526, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9963, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.139, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.05 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 5.05, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1772, "appearance_probability": 0.139 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4701, "goals_prevented": -0.0027, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 5.05, "total_pass": 5.8269, "accurate_pass": 3.601, "total_long_balls": 3.092, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9253, "touches": 7.3607, "clearances": 0.1961, "ball_recovery": 1.3442, "high_claims": 0.1474, "punches": 0.0716, "aerial_won": 0.0312, "sweeper_actions": 0.2426, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2426, "saves_inside_box": 0.35, "possession_lost": 2.2532, "duels_won": 0.0526, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9963, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.139, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.05 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4701, "goals_prevented": -0.0027, "rating": 7.0011, "minutes": 5.05, "total_pass": 5.8269, "accurate_pass": 3.601, "total_long_balls": 3.092, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9253, "touches": 7.3607, "clearances": 0.1961, "ball_recovery": 1.3442, "high_claims": 0.1474, "punches": 0.0716, "aerial_won": 0.0312, "sweeper_actions": 0.2426, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2426, "saves_inside_box": 0.35, "possession_lost": 2.2532, "duels_won": 0.0526, "duels_lost": 0.0049, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.011, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3439, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.9963, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.139, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.05, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.139, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": 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"ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1635, "combined_rank_score": 663.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 882.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6569, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Destiny Udogie", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yu-chan Lee", "ranking": 1630 }, { "player_name": "Diego Gómez", "ranking": 1631 }, { "player_name": "Ozan Kabak", "ranking": 1632 }, { "player_name": "Fausto Grillo", "ranking": 1633 }, { "player_name": "Sherzod Fayziev", "ranking": 1634 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jae-yul Yeo", "ranking": 1636 }, { "player_name": "Paul Mbong", "ranking": 1637 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Fernández", "ranking": 1638 }, { "player_name": "Rasmus Højlund", "ranking": 1639 }, { "player_name": "Sabit James Ngor", "ranking": 1640 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", 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"prior_reliability": 0.02 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (24 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 14.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3348, "tackles": 0.7591, "tackles_won": 0.4573, "clearances": 0.6832, "aerial_won": 0.3017, "total_shots": 0.1425, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.2273, "accurate_pass": 13.1462, "duels_won": 2.1011, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6012, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0528, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.545, "crosses_total": 0.9605, "crosses_accurate": 0.2566, "touches": 22.9656, "possession_lost": 4.3144, "dispossessed": 0.3417, "duels_lost": 2.36, "aerial_lost": 0.4243, "total_contest": 0.7888, 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"minutes": 22.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1106, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.094, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0799, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 68.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0679, "rating": 5.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-11", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 85.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0577, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0491, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 76.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0417, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0355, "rating": 6.5 } ], "feature_row": 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}, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.794 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1325 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0479 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0511, "total": 0.3017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862103 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.259141 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.11303 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079444 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.046072 } ], "others_margin": -0.156469 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14249807596206665, "model_output": 0.1425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.195 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0359, "total": 0.1425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.195033 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017222 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009593 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009577 } ], "others_margin": -0.035874 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656911849975586, "model_output": 6.6569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 6.6569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.048177 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016216 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015904 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011936 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011253 } ], "others_margin": -0.036824 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0102, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3382, "tackles": 0.7669, "tackles_won": 0.462, "clearances": 0.6902, "aerial_won": 0.3048, "total_shots": 0.144, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 13.2803, "duels_won": 2.1225, "total_long_balls": 0.2516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6481, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9703, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6845, "fouls_drawn": 0.6483, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, 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"total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9721, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6849, "fouls_drawn": 0.6488, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1085, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1505, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7705, "total_progression": 40.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.8131, "key_pass": 0.6548, "shots_off_target": 0.144 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2647, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled 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0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.28, "projection_minutes": 23.82, "minutes_scale": 0.5995, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, 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"player_name": "Diego Murillo", "ranking": 327 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Kamara", "ranking": 328 }, { "player_name": "Min-woo Kim", "ranking": 329 }, { "player_name": "Juan Berrocal", "ranking": 330 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cristian Romero", "ranking": 332 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Iturbe", "ranking": 333 }, { "player_name": "Oyarzabal", "ranking": 334 }, { "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking": 335 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 336 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.76, "history_matches": 39, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", 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85.505, "possession_lost": 14.5302, "dispossessed": 0.2587, "duels_lost": 5.0636, "aerial_lost": 2.8247, "total_contest": 0.3539, "won_contest": 0.2348, "ball_recovery": 4.4834, "challenges_lost": 0.8457, "fouls": 1.0173, "fouls_drawn": 1.3403, "blocks": 1.1703, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0665, "assist_rate": 0.0665, "expected_goals": 0.0216, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "shots_on_target": 0.0395, "big_chances_created": 0.085, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 27.7956, "total_progression": 117.1252, "progressive_carries": 1.1755, "key_pass": 0.5694, "shots_off_target": 0.3722 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 89.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1503, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1277, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-09", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 7.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-03", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 8.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-22", "opponent": "Leeds United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-11", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-20", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "totalClearance": 5.1229, "aerialWon": 2.531, "totalClearance_p90": 5.1323, "totalTackle": 1.8609, "totalPass": 70.3659 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.5244227051734924, "model_output": 0.5244, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8678, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4538 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0402 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.033 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0156 } ], "others": 0.0041, "total": 0.5244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.141777, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.740057 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.092663 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.070115 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": 0.035375 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.030449 } ], "others_margin": 0.007775 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6059343814849854, "model_output": 0.6059, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2493 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0414 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0245 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3878, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7749 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0259 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.026 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0217 } ], "others": -0.0598, "total": 0.6059, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.817229 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.041349 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.039944 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.033486 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.03213 } ], "others_margin": -0.094125 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.4449863135814667, "model_output": 0.445, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4419 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0212 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": 0.019 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.019 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 0.445, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.737439 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.058864 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.048083 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.041319 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.041159 } ], "others_margin": -0.013495 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.4350035190582275, "model_output": 2.435, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -1.961 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.4132 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.2118 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.1664 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0989 } ], "others": 0.083, "total": 2.435, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.85079 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.248928 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.107022 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.076706 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042969 } ], "others_margin": 0.034675 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.9015578627586365, "model_output": 0.9016, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7789 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1891 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0616 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.054 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0485 } ], "others": -0.047, "total": 0.9016, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.836422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.275819 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.075606 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.061809 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.052434 } ], "others_margin": -0.05086 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4117247760295868, "model_output": 0.4117, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1281 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1027 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.076 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0268 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0185 } ], "others": 0.0413, "total": 0.4117, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.128093 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.102695 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.076026 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.026828 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.018505 } ], "others_margin": 0.041392 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9078192710876465, "model_output": 6.9078, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.1466 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0773 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0336 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.03 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0265 } ], "others": 0.0714, "total": 6.9078, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.146649 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.077269 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.033592 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.030008 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.026455 } ], "others_margin": 0.071255 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 39, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0053, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5272, "tackles": 0.6091, "tackles_won": 0.4473, "clearances": 2.4479, "aerial_won": 0.9063, "total_shots": 0.4139, "rating": 6.9078, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 70.7388, "accurate_pass": 57.6277, "duels_won": 5.9734, "total_long_balls": 10.8358, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0184, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9557, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9631, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6719, "crosses_total": 0.3844, "crosses_accurate": 0.0681, "touches": 85.9582, "possession_lost": 14.6072, "dispossessed": 0.2601, "duels_lost": 5.0904, "aerial_lost": 2.8397, "total_contest": 0.3558, "won_contest": 0.236, "ball_recovery": 4.5072, "challenges_lost": 0.8502, "fouls": 1.0227, "fouls_drawn": 1.3474, "blocks": 1.1765, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0669, "assist_rate": 0.0669, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "shots_on_target": 0.0397, "big_chances_created": 0.0855, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 27.9429, "total_progression": 117.746, "progressive_carries": 1.1817, "key_pass": 0.5724, "shots_off_target": 0.3742 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0053, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 39, "history_shrink": 0.1136, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0049)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5266, "tackles": 0.6091, "tackles_won": 0.449, "clearances": 2.4479, "aerial_won": 0.9063, "total_shots": 0.4119, "rating": 6.9078, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 70.7388, "accurate_pass": 57.6277, "duels_won": 5.9734, "total_long_balls": 10.8358, "accurate_long_balls": 4.0184, "total_own_half_passes": 36.7757, "accurate_own_half_passes": 32.9557, "total_opp_half_passes": 33.9631, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24.6719, "crosses_total": 0.3825, "crosses_accurate": 0.0681, "touches": 85.9582, "possession_lost": 14.6072, "dispossessed": 0.2601, "duels_lost": 5.0904, "aerial_lost": 2.8397, "total_contest": 0.3558, "won_contest": 0.236, "ball_recovery": 4.5072, "challenges_lost": 0.8502, "fouls": 1.0196, "fouls_drawn": 1.3437, "blocks": 1.1765, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0666, "assist_rate": 0.0666, "expected_goals": 0.0217, "expected_assists": 0.0622, "shots_on_target": 0.0395, "big_chances_created": 0.0855, "xgot": 0.0024, "ball_carries": 27.9429, "total_progression": 117.746, "progressive_carries": 1.1817, "key_pass": 0.5724, "shots_off_target": 0.3742 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0049, "history_matches": 39, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4228, "tackles": 0.489, "tackles_won": 0.3605, "clearances": 1.9653, "aerial_won": 0.7276, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.9078, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 56.7941, "accurate_pass": 46.2676, "duels_won": 4.7959, "total_long_balls": 8.6997, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2263, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5261, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4591, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8083, "crosses_total": 0.3071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0547, "touches": 69.0133, "possession_lost": 11.7277, "dispossessed": 0.2601, "duels_lost": 4.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.8397, "total_contest": 0.2857, "won_contest": 0.1895, "ball_recovery": 3.6187, "challenges_lost": 0.8502, "fouls": 0.8186, "fouls_drawn": 1.0788, "blocks": 0.9446, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0535, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0686, "xgot": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.4345, "total_progression": 94.5348, "progressive_carries": 0.9488, "key_pass": 0.4596, "shots_off_target": 0.3004, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.235, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.45, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.8029, "appearance_probability": 0.235 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4228, "tackles": 0.489, "tackles_won": 0.3605, "clearances": 1.9653, "aerial_won": 0.7276, "total_shots": 0.3321, "rating": 6.9078, "minutes": 14.45, "total_pass": 56.7941, "accurate_pass": 46.2676, "duels_won": 4.7959, "total_long_balls": 8.6997, "accurate_long_balls": 3.2263, "total_own_half_passes": 29.5261, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.4591, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.268, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8083, "crosses_total": 0.3071, "crosses_accurate": 0.0547, "touches": 69.0133, "possession_lost": 11.7277, "dispossessed": 0.2601, "duels_lost": 4.0869, "aerial_lost": 2.8397, "total_contest": 0.2857, "won_contest": 0.1895, "ball_recovery": 3.6187, "challenges_lost": 0.8502, "fouls": 0.8186, "fouls_drawn": 1.0788, "blocks": 0.9446, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0535, "assist_rate": 0.0535, "expected_goals": 0.0174, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.0317, "big_chances_created": 0.0686, "xgot": 0.0019, "ball_carries": 22.4345, "total_progression": 94.5348, "progressive_carries": 0.9488, "key_pass": 0.4596, "shots_off_target": 0.3004, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.235, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.45 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4228, "tackles": 0.489, "tackles_won": 0.3605, 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{ "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": -0.034243 } ], "others_margin": -0.054797 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23877358436584473, "model_output": 0.2388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1593 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0342 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0267 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0063 } ], "others": 0.0104, "total": 0.2388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.69623 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.19563 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.129997 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.067724 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027061 } ], "others_margin": 0.044431 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8939560055732727, "model_output": 0.894, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5464 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3567 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0521 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0225 } ], "others": 0.0386, "total": 0.894, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.546355 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.35675 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052111 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.033754 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.022519 } ], "others_margin": 0.038485 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.780879974365234, "model_output": 6.7809, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0094 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0085 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": 0.0287, "total": 6.7809, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.102019 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01022 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.009367 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008508 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.007524 } ], "others_margin": 0.028726 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8489, "expected_assists": 0.0889, "assists": 0.1235, "assist_rate": 0.1235, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goals": 0.073, "goal_rate": 0.073, "shots_on_target": 0.2419, "total_shots": 0.9058, "rating": 6.7809, "minutes": 25.35, "total_pass": 13.7166, "accurate_pass": 11.0488, "duels_won": 3.212, "total_long_balls": 0.7448, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4143, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1684, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5714, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5482, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.4774, "crosses_total": 0.6481, "crosses_accurate": 0.1215, "touches": 22.3487, "possession_lost": 5.2319, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.9831, "aerial_won": 0.4817, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2896, "tackles_won": 0.606, "tackles": 0.8542, "clearances": 0.2063, 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7833, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assists": 0.114, "assist_rate": 0.114, "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goals": 0.0674, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "shots_on_target": 0.2232, "total_shots": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7809, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7833, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2232, "total_shots": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7809, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, 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"appearance_probability": 0.563, "projected_substitutes": 3, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7833, "expected_assists": 0.082, "assist_rate": 0.114, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0738, "goal_rate": 0.0674, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2232, "total_shots": 0.8358, "rating": 6.7809, "minutes": 23.39, "total_pass": 12.6565, "accurate_pass": 10.1949, "duels_won": 2.9638, "total_long_balls": 0.6872, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3823, "total_own_half_passes": 2.9235, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.3727, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.733, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8222, "crosses_total": 0.598, "crosses_accurate": 0.1121, "touches": 20.6215, "possession_lost": 4.8276, "dispossessed": 0.4065, "duels_lost": 1.8298, "aerial_won": 0.4445, "aerial_lost": 0.5889, "interceptions": 0.2672, "tackles_won": 0.5592, "tackles": 0.7882, "clearances": 0.1904, "total_contest": 1.2375, "won_contest": 0.7787, "challenges_lost": 0.3526, "fouls": 0.2592, "fouls_drawn": 0.9524, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.083, "ball_carries": 5.3572, "total_progression": 16.6097, "progressive_carries": 1.0606, "shots_off_target": 0.6125, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.563, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.39, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 654, "fifa_rank": 513.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 81.0 } } ] }, "Lucas Bergvall": { "player_id": 1391251, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 186, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "assist_rate": 0.0577, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "goal_rate": 0.0398, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6741, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 3.5604, "dispossessed": 0.0482, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0464, "ball_carries": 5, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0311, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024020, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3809, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1964, "combined_rank_score": 758.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 1126.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6741, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Bergvall", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Zafar Hakimov", "ranking": 1959 }, { "player_name": "Jani Atanasov", "ranking": 1960 }, { "player_name": "Isi", "ranking": 1961 }, { "player_name": "Can Uzun", "ranking": 1962 }, { "player_name": "Dan Ndoye", "ranking": 1963 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Marín", "ranking": 1965 }, { "player_name": "Reno Piscopo", "ranking": 1966 }, { "player_name": "Lee Kang In", "ranking": 1967 }, { "player_name": "Kenny Tete", "ranking": 1968 }, { "player_name": "Djed Spence", "ranking": 1969 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.755, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", 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0.0437 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0241 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0911, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0422 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0071 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.002 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0015 } ], "others": -0.0032, "total": 0.0316, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.395469, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.621574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.15741 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.088078 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.054476 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041828 } ], "others_margin": -0.096862 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.03135371208190918, "model_output": 0.0314, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0026 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0018 } ], "others": -0.0067, "total": 0.0314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.516432 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222043 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.064392 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.06379 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.045199 } ], "others_margin": -0.193235 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.12491068243980408, "model_output": 0.1249, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1356 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0047 } ], "others": -0.0057, "total": 0.1249, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.556645 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.265969 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.119621 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.088408 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.035689 } ], "others_margin": -0.04391 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3639158010482788, "model_output": 0.3639, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3596 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2207 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0142 } ], "others": 0.0045, "total": 0.3639, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.359626 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.220685 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 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"margin": -0.073804 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044824 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033942 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.009777 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.005902 } ], "others_margin": -0.013628 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.077, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.8664, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "key_pass": 0.7864, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 7.1032, "accurate_pass": 5.6904, "duels_won": 1.3487, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8857, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6968, "crosses_total": 1.4237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1671, "touches": 13.4232, "possession_lost": 4.3535, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.2643, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 1.4452, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 0.9519, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.582, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0437, "tackles_won": 0.218, "tackles": 0.218, "clearances": 0.2535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 5.7719, "total_progression": 44.2114, "progressive_carries": 2.1208, "shots_off_target": 0.621 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goals": 0.1155, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 17.71, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goals": 0.1155, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0988, "after": 0.0881 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1379, "after": 0.107 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1302, "fifa_rank": 697.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0822, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "scorer_weight": 0.098, "squad_weight_total": 1.6563, "weight_share": 0.0592, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Omar Marmoush", "weight": 0.3265, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3265, "runner_up": "Mathys Tel", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2496 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0822, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0984, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0984, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0856, "squad_weight_total": 1.1846, "weight_share": 0.0723, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sandro Tonali", "weight": 0.1463, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1463, "runner_up": "Mohammed Kudus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.146, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Omar Marmoush" ] } ] } } ] }, "Mykhailo Mudryk": { "player_id": 958966, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 175, "market_value": 42000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1193, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0186, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3166, "combined_rank_score": 1132.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2206.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6189, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Leon Bailey", "ranking": 3161 }, { "player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking": 3162 }, { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.312, "history_matches": 1, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2577 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0348 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0248 } ], "others": -0.0599, "total": 0.299, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.464257 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.093755 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.091806 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.081473 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071676 } ], "others_margin": -0.18221 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.618943691253662, "model_output": 6.6189, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": 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"volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7748932242393494, "model_output": 0.7749, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2841 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0595 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0414 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0419 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0425 } ], "others": 0.1798, "total": 0.7749, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.52668 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.135559 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084632 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.078765 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.074042 } ], "others_margin": 0.264104 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.895451545715332, "model_output": 6.8955, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.098 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.043 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0337 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0261 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0253 } ], "others": 0.0919, "total": 6.8955, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098014 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.043039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.03373 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.026101 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.025259 } ], "others_margin": 0.091835 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0148, quality 0.831)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0659, "goals": 0.077, "goal_rate": 0.077, "shots_on_target": 0.2454, "total_shots": 0.8664, "expected_assists": 0.0919, "key_pass": 0.7864, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 17.71, "total_pass": 7.1032, "accurate_pass": 5.6904, "duels_won": 1.3487, "total_long_balls": 0.2925, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.8857, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.6968, "crosses_total": 1.4237, "crosses_accurate": 0.1671, "touches": 13.4232, "possession_lost": 4.3535, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.2643, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 1.4452, "won_contest": 0.5487, "ball_recovery": 0.9519, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2038, "fouls_drawn": 0.582, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0437, "tackles_won": 0.218, "tackles": 0.218, "clearances": 0.2535, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1227, "xgot": 0.0352, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 5.7719, "total_progression": 44.2114, "progressive_carries": 2.1208, "shots_off_target": 0.621 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 52000000, "quality_factor": 0.8309, "boost_factor": 1.0148, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.7 to 26.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.63)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goals": 0.1155, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.85, "projection_minutes": 17.71, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.63 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goals": 0.1155, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.1379, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0528, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.63 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0988, "after": 0.0881 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1379, "after": 0.107 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1302, "fifa_rank": 697.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0822, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "scorer_weight": 0.098, "squad_weight_total": 1.6563, "weight_share": 0.0592, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Omar Marmoush", "weight": 0.3265, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3265, "runner_up": "Mathys Tel", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2496 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0881, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3681, "total_shots": 1.2996, "expected_assists": 0.107, "key_pass": 1.1796, "rating": 6.8955, "minutes": 26.85, "total_pass": 10.6548, "accurate_pass": 8.5356, "duels_won": 2.0231, "total_long_balls": 0.4387, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.8285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.0452, "crosses_total": 2.1355, "crosses_accurate": 0.2506, "touches": 20.1348, "possession_lost": 6.5303, "dispossessed": 0.0393, "duels_lost": 1.8964, "aerial_lost": 0.1248, "total_contest": 2.1678, "won_contest": 0.823, "ball_recovery": 1.4278, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.3057, "fouls_drawn": 0.873, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0655, "tackles_won": 0.327, "tackles": 0.327, "clearances": 0.3802, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.184, "xgot": 0.0471, "offsides": 0.0338, "ball_carries": 8.6578, "total_progression": 66.3171, "progressive_carries": 3.1812, "shots_off_target": 0.9315, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0822, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0984, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0984, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0856, "squad_weight_total": 1.1846, "weight_share": 0.0723, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.63, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sandro Tonali", "weight": 0.1463, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1463, "runner_up": "Mohammed Kudus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.146, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Omar Marmoush" ] } ] } } ] }, "Destiny Udogie": { "player_id": 983572, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 186, "market_value": 28000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0355, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363879, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0492, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363638, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Tottenham 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1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363242, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0225, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham 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"season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023927, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025042, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025026, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0413, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1635, "combined_rank_score": 663.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 445.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 882.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6569, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Destiny Udogie", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yu-chan Lee", "ranking": 1630 }, { "player_name": "Diego Gómez", "ranking": 1631 }, { "player_name": "Ozan Kabak", "ranking": 1632 }, { "player_name": "Fausto Grillo", "ranking": 1633 }, { "player_name": "Sherzod Fayziev", "ranking": 1634 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jae-yul Yeo", "ranking": 1636 }, { "player_name": "Paul Mbong", "ranking": 1637 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Fernández", "ranking": 1638 }, { "player_name": "Rasmus Højlund", "ranking": 1639 }, { "player_name": "Sabit James Ngor", "ranking": 1640 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.753, "history_matches": 24, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", 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projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (24 historical appearances) to 14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.62); FBref playing time empirical prior: 2.0 sub appearances, 14.0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3348, "tackles": 0.7591, "tackles_won": 0.4573, "clearances": 0.6832, "aerial_won": 0.3017, "total_shots": 0.1425, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.2273, "accurate_pass": 13.1462, "duels_won": 2.1011, "total_long_balls": 0.2491, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.1745, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6012, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.0528, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.545, "crosses_total": 0.9605, "crosses_accurate": 0.2566, "touches": 22.9656, "possession_lost": 4.3144, "dispossessed": 0.3417, "duels_lost": 2.36, "aerial_lost": 0.4243, "total_contest": 0.7888, "won_contest": 0.3832, "ball_recovery": 1.4924, 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.742874 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.044161 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.034818 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.028547 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.027656 } ], "others_margin": 0.059702 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.45731645822525024, "model_output": 0.4573, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4529 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0173 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0141 } ], "others": 0.0219, "total": 0.4573, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.764914 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.058108 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.040652 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": 0.032633 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.031811 } ], "others_margin": 0.048839 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 0.6832237243652344, "model_output": 0.6832, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.0858 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2898 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1035 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0616 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0525 } ], "others": -0.1463, "total": 0.6832, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.940055 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.244301 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.104083 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.067475 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.061364 } ], "others_margin": -0.194094 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.30171284079551697, "model_output": 0.3017, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.794 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1325 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0479 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0166 } ], "others": -0.0511, "total": 0.3017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.862103 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.259141 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.11303 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079444 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.046072 } ], "others_margin": -0.156469 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14249807596206665, "model_output": 0.1425, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.195 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0895 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0096 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0359, "total": 0.1425, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.195033 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.08947 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017222 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009593 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009577 } ], "others_margin": -0.035874 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.656911849975586, "model_output": 6.6569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0482 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0162 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0119 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0368, "total": 6.6569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.048177 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016216 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.015904 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011936 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011253 } ], "others_margin": -0.036824 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0102, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3382, "tackles": 0.7669, "tackles_won": 0.462, "clearances": 0.6902, "aerial_won": 0.3048, "total_shots": 0.144, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 13.2803, "duels_won": 2.1225, "total_long_balls": 0.2516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6481, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9703, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6845, "fouls_drawn": 0.6483, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1087, "assist_rate": 0.1087, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1505, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7705, "total_progression": 40.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.8131, "key_pass": 0.6548, "shots_off_target": 0.144 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0102, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3374, "tackles": 0.7669, "tackles_won": 0.4629, "clearances": 0.6902, "aerial_won": 0.3048, "total_shots": 0.1437, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 23.82, "total_pass": 15.3826, "accurate_pass": 13.2803, "duels_won": 2.1225, "total_long_balls": 0.2516, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 5.2273, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.6481, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.1553, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.6322, "crosses_total": 0.9721, "crosses_accurate": 0.2592, "touches": 23.1998, "possession_lost": 4.3584, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 2.3841, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.7968, "won_contest": 0.3871, "ball_recovery": 1.5076, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.6849, "fouls_drawn": 0.6488, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1085, "assist_rate": 0.1085, "expected_goals": 0.0015, "expected_assists": 0.0796, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1505, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.7705, "total_progression": 40.9505, "progressive_carries": 0.8131, "key_pass": 0.6548, "shots_off_target": 0.144 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 24, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2647, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Tottenham" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.8 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.28, "projection_minutes": 23.82, "minutes_scale": 0.5995, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.065, "assist_rate": 0.065, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0009, "expected_assists": 0.0477, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0477, "after": 0.0366 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1635, "fifa_rank": 882.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0008, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0008, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.6563, "weight_share": 0.0006, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Omar Marmoush", "weight": 0.3265, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3265, "runner_up": "Mathys Tel", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2496 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2023, "tackles": 0.4598, "tackles_won": 0.2775, "clearances": 0.4138, "aerial_won": 0.1827, "total_shots": 0.0863, "rating": 6.6569, "minutes": 14.28, "total_pass": 9.2218, "accurate_pass": 7.9615, "duels_won": 1.2724, "total_long_balls": 0.1508, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.1337, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7865, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.0881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.175, "crosses_total": 0.5828, "crosses_accurate": 0.1554, "touches": 13.9082, "possession_lost": 2.6128, "dispossessed": 0.3452, "duels_lost": 1.4293, "aerial_lost": 0.4286, "total_contest": 0.4777, "won_contest": 0.2321, "ball_recovery": 0.9038, "challenges_lost": 0.5161, "fouls": 0.4106, "fouls_drawn": 0.389, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.065, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0008, "expected_assists": 0.0366, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0902, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.8574, "total_progression": 24.5497, "progressive_carries": 0.4875, "key_pass": 0.3926, "shots_off_target": 0.0863, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.28, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0008, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0355, "finishing_factor": 0.9823, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0355, "assist_rate": 0.065, "provider_weight": 0.0431, "squad_weight_total": 1.1846, "weight_share": 0.0364, "creation_factor": 1.1771, "appearance_weight": 0.623, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sandro Tonali", "weight": 0.1463, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1463, "runner_up": "Mohammed Kudus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.146, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Omar Marmoush" ] } ] } } ] }, "Mykhailo Mudryk": { "player_id": 958966, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 175, "market_value": 42000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": 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"role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0715, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1051, "goals": 0.0725, "goal_rate": 0.0725, "shots_on_target": 0.3821, "total_shots": 0.6632, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "key_pass": 0.3204, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 18.67, "total_pass": 2.143, "accurate_pass": 1.0715, "duels_won": 1.0715, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.143, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.0715, "crosses_total": 1.0715, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 4.286, "possession_lost": 2.143, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.0715, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.0715, "fouls_drawn": 1.0715, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.143, "total_progression": 19.6452, "progressive_carries": 1.0715, "shots_off_target": 0.2811 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 42000000, "quality_factor": 0.7909, "boost_factor": 1.0715, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.7 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1503, "goals": 0.1037, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "shots_on_target": 0.5463, "total_shots": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.4019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.69, "projection_minutes": 18.67, "minutes_scale": 1.4297, "appearance_probability": 0.622 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1503, "goals": 0.1037, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "shots_on_target": 0.5463, "total_shots": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.4019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1503, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5463, "total_shots": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.4019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.53 (squad xG sum 1.0797, xG scale 1.4161, xA scale 1.2320, team xA 1.22 = 0.80 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5463, "total_shots": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.4019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.529, "squad_xg_sum": 1.0797, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9929, "team_expected_assists": 1.2232, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.8, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.4161, "xa_scale": 1.232, "opponent_lambda": 1.252, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.622 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1503, "after": 0.1324 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0246, "after": 0.0189 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5463, "total_shots": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.4019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3166, "fifa_rank": 2206.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5463, "total_shots": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.4019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1193, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1193, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "scorer_weight": 0.1059, "squad_weight_total": 1.6563, "weight_share": 0.0639, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.622, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Omar Marmoush", "weight": 0.3265, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3265, "runner_up": "Mathys Tel", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2496 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1324, "goal_rate": 0.1037, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5463, "total_shots": 0.9482, "expected_assists": 0.0189, "key_pass": 0.4581, "rating": 6.6189, "minutes": 26.69, "total_pass": 3.0638, "accurate_pass": 1.5319, "duels_won": 1.5319, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0638, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5319, "crosses_total": 1.5319, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.1276, "possession_lost": 3.0638, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.5319, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5319, "fouls_drawn": 1.5319, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0638, "total_progression": 28.0862, "progressive_carries": 1.5319, "shots_off_target": 0.4019, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.622, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.69, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.773, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1193, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0186, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0186, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0151, "squad_weight_total": 1.1846, "weight_share": 0.0128, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.622, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Sandro Tonali", "weight": 0.1463, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1463, "runner_up": "Mohammed Kudus", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.146, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Omar Marmoush" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.53, "expected_assists": 1.22, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 505, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.96, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4 } }, "Crystal Palace": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Daichi Kamada": { "player_id": 794338, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 184, "market_value": 10300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.0913, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1012, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 57, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andy Robertson", "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0959, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.078, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363895, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0888, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363883, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.34, "expected_assists": 0.0394, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4208, "expected_assists": 0.0342, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Ipswich Town", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.4, "assist_rate": 2.0, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", 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"interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0167 } ], "others": -0.0613, "total": 0.9508, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.152961 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.109917 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04846 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.0191 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.016701 } ], "others_margin": -0.061353 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.841748237609863, "model_output": 6.8417, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0324 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0061 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.005 } ], "others": -0.0191, "total": 6.8417, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.032389 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016868 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009633 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.006132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.005013 } ], "others_margin": -0.019029 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0008, quality 0.526)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.808, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assists": 0.0857, "assist_rate": 0.0857, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goals": 0.0866, "goal_rate": 0.0866, "shots_on_target": 0.36, "total_shots": 0.9515, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84.46, "total_pass": 33.3093, "accurate_pass": 27.9978, "duels_won": 3.7158, "total_long_balls": 1.9498, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2673, "total_own_half_passes": 14.524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3354, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6625, "crosses_total": 0.8234, "crosses_accurate": 0.1619, "touches": 44.7369, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3.156, "aerial_won": 0.3443, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.3894, "tackles_won": 1.3478, "tackles": 1.8521, "clearances": 0.8531, "total_contest": 0.8674, "won_contest": 0.4805, "challenges_lost": 1.1668, "fouls": 0.6576, "fouls_drawn": 1.0501, "blocks": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.1724, "big_chances_missed": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0907, "ball_carries": 14.1568, "total_progression": 56.9494, "progressive_carries": 2.1005, "shots_off_target": 0.5915 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10300000, "quality_factor": 0.526, "boost_factor": 1.0008, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.808, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assists": 0.0848, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goals": 0.0857, "goal_rate": 0.0857, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 0.9464, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84.46, "total_pass": 33.3093, "accurate_pass": 27.9978, "duels_won": 3.7158, "total_long_balls": 1.9498, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2673, "total_own_half_passes": 14.524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3354, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6625, "crosses_total": 0.8345, "crosses_accurate": 0.1619, "touches": 44.7369, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3.156, "aerial_won": 0.3443, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.3952, "tackles_won": 1.3683, "tackles": 1.8521, "clearances": 0.8531, "total_contest": 0.8674, "won_contest": 0.4805, "challenges_lost": 1.1668, "fouls": 0.6556, "fouls_drawn": 1.0539, "blocks": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.1724, "big_chances_missed": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0907, "ball_carries": 14.1568, "total_progression": 56.9494, "progressive_carries": 2.1005, "shots_off_target": 0.5915 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9384, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3478, "after": 1.3683 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.8234, "after": 0.8345 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3894, "after": 0.3952 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9515, "after": 0.9464 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.808, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assists": 0.0848, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "expected_goals": 0.0903, "goals": 0.0857, "goal_rate": 0.0857, "shots_on_target": 0.3562, "total_shots": 0.9477, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84.46, "total_pass": 33.3093, "accurate_pass": 27.9978, "duels_won": 3.7158, "total_long_balls": 1.9498, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2673, "total_own_half_passes": 14.524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3354, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6625, "crosses_total": 0.8345, "crosses_accurate": 0.1619, "touches": 44.7369, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3.156, "aerial_won": 0.3443, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.3952, "tackles_won": 1.3683, "tackles": 1.8521, "clearances": 0.8531, "total_contest": 0.8674, "won_contest": 0.4805, "challenges_lost": 1.1668, "fouls": 0.6556, "fouls_drawn": 1.0539, "blocks": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.1724, "big_chances_missed": 0.1081, "xgot": 0.0907, "ball_carries": 14.1568, "total_progression": 56.9494, "progressive_carries": 2.1005, "shots_off_target": 0.5915 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.808, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assists": 0.0848, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "expected_goals": 0.0962, "goals": 0.0913, "goal_rate": 0.0913, "shots_on_target": 0.3794, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84.46, "total_pass": 33.3093, "accurate_pass": 27.9978, "duels_won": 3.7158, "total_long_balls": 1.9498, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2673, "total_own_half_passes": 14.524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3354, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6625, "crosses_total": 0.8345, "crosses_accurate": 0.1619, "touches": 44.7369, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3.156, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.3952, "tackles_won": 1.3683, "tackles": 1.8521, "clearances": 0.8531, "total_contest": 0.8674, "won_contest": 0.4805, "challenges_lost": 1.1668, "fouls": 0.6556, "fouls_drawn": 1.0539, "blocks": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.1724, "big_chances_missed": 0.1151, "xgot": 0.0966, "ball_carries": 14.1568, "total_progression": 56.9494, "progressive_carries": 2.1005, "shots_off_target": 0.6301, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andy Robertson", "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "skill_edge": 0.0204, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.5761, "defender_skill": 0.5308, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Andy Robertson", "market_value": 7500000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5308 } ], "xg_override": 0.0962 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3443, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9477, "after": 1.0095 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5915, "after": 0.6301 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3562, "after": 0.3794 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1081, "after": 0.1151 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0907, "after": 0.0966 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0903, "after": 0.0962 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.0857, "after": 0.0913 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.808, "expected_assists": 0.077, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0962, "goal_rate": 0.0913, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3794, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84.46, "total_pass": 33.3093, "accurate_pass": 27.9978, "duels_won": 3.7158, "total_long_balls": 1.9498, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2673, "total_own_half_passes": 14.524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3354, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6625, "crosses_total": 0.8345, "crosses_accurate": 0.1619, "touches": 44.7369, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3.156, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.3952, "tackles_won": 1.3683, "tackles": 1.8521, "clearances": 0.8531, "total_contest": 0.8674, "won_contest": 0.4805, "challenges_lost": 1.1668, "fouls": 0.6556, "fouls_drawn": 1.0539, "blocks": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.1724, "big_chances_missed": 0.1151, "xgot": 0.0966, "ball_carries": 14.1568, "total_progression": 56.9494, "progressive_carries": 2.1005, "shots_off_target": 0.6301, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andy Robertson", "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.808, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.0913, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3794, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84.46, "total_pass": 33.3093, "accurate_pass": 27.9978, "duels_won": 3.7158, "total_long_balls": 1.9498, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2673, "total_own_half_passes": 14.524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3354, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6625, "crosses_total": 0.8345, "crosses_accurate": 0.1619, "touches": 44.7369, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3.156, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.3952, "tackles_won": 1.3683, "tackles": 1.8521, "clearances": 0.8531, "total_contest": 0.8674, "won_contest": 0.4805, "challenges_lost": 1.1668, "fouls": 0.6556, "fouls_drawn": 1.0539, "blocks": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.1724, "big_chances_missed": 0.1151, "xgot": 0.1012, "ball_carries": 14.1568, "total_progression": 56.9494, "progressive_carries": 2.1005, "shots_off_target": 0.6301, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andy Robertson", "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "creation_factor": 1.0614 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.808, "expected_assists": 0.0812, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1008, "goal_rate": 0.0913, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3794, "total_shots": 1.0095, "rating": 6.8417, "minutes": 84.46, "total_pass": 33.3093, "accurate_pass": 27.9978, "duels_won": 3.7158, "total_long_balls": 1.9498, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2673, "total_own_half_passes": 14.524, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.3354, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.7853, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.6625, "crosses_total": 0.8345, "crosses_accurate": 0.1619, "touches": 44.7369, "possession_lost": 8.6544, "dispossessed": 0.6293, "duels_lost": 3.156, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.3203, "interceptions": 0.3952, "tackles_won": 1.3683, "tackles": 1.8521, "clearances": 0.8531, "total_contest": 0.8674, "won_contest": 0.4805, "challenges_lost": 1.1668, "fouls": 0.6556, "fouls_drawn": 1.0539, "blocks": 0.0081, "big_chances_created": 0.1724, "big_chances_missed": 0.1151, "xgot": 0.1012, "ball_carries": 14.1568, "total_progression": 56.9494, "progressive_carries": 2.1005, "shots_off_target": 0.6301, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Andy Robertson", "opponent_faced": "Andy Robertson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9665, "creation_factor": 1.0614, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1213, 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1924 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0903 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0926 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0972 } ], "others": 0.3677, "total": 1.6252, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.24473 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097808 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.088374 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.083142 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.080463 } ], "others_margin": 0.256588 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.937281608581543, "model_output": 6.9373, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0535 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0387 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0239 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0209 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0191 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 6.9373, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.053548 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.038704 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.023874 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.694)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1443, "goals": 0.1909, "goal_rate": 0.1909, "shots_on_target": 0.5439, "total_shots": 1.3627, "expected_assists": 0.1304, "key_pass": 1.6347, "rating": 6.9373, "minutes": 72.05, "total_pass": 29.3789, "accurate_pass": 22.3468, "duels_won": 2.8231, "total_long_balls": 2.275, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2633, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.593, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.576, "crosses_total": 3.1498, "crosses_accurate": 0.5305, "touches": 43.8229, "possession_lost": 13.9687, "dispossessed": 0.4735, "duels_lost": 3.7349, "aerial_lost": 0.8653, "total_contest": 1.5283, "won_contest": 0.4188, "ball_recovery": 2.7769, "challenges_lost": 0.7157, "fouls": 0.634, "fouls_drawn": 1.0142, "assists": 0.0049, "assist_rate": 0.0049, "interceptions": 0.4606, 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"season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1324, "combined_rank_score": 575.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 644.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7469, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 506.0, "fifa_overall": 81.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6783, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azzedine Ounahi", "ranking": 1319 }, { "player_name": "Noussair Mazraoui", "ranking": 1320 }, { "player_name": "Felipe Chamorro", "ranking": 1321 }, { "player_name": "Beka Mikeltadze", "ranking": 1322 }, { "player_name": "Fornals", "ranking": 1323 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Brahim", "ranking": 1325 }, { "player_name": "Diego Llorente", "ranking": 1326 }, { "player_name": "Brandon Mechele", 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"contribution": -0.0601 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0442 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0407 } ], "others": -0.1582, "total": 0.5257, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25464 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076891 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.075281 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.059201 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.057884 } ], "others_margin": -0.26289 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.678343296051025, "model_output": 6.6783, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0077, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3468, "goals": 0.3629, "goal_rate": 0.3629, "shots_on_target": 0.7799, "total_shots": 1.8851, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5298, "rating": 6.6783, "minutes": 74.36, "total_pass": 9.945, "accurate_pass": 6.1842, "duels_won": 3.462, "total_long_balls": 0.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1613, "crosses_total": 0.2045, "crosses_accurate": 0.0913, "touches": 21.073, "possession_lost": 7.8362, "dispossessed": 1.2406, "duels_lost": 5.6852, "aerial_lost": 2.8469, "total_contest": 0.9056, "won_contest": 0.3139, "ball_recovery": 1.6169, "challenges_lost": 0.1963, "fouls": 0.8695, "fouls_drawn": 0.7834, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1765, "tackles_won": 0.0606, "tackles": 0.4186, "clearances": 1.4699, "blocks": 0.1826, "big_chances_created": 0.075, "big_chances_missed": 1.1915, "xgot": 0.2749, "offsides": 0.8013, "ball_carries": 4.2577, "total_progression": 13.222, "progressive_carries": 0.3927, "shots_off_target": 1.1052 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0077, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0038)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3468, "goals": 0.3615, "goal_rate": 0.3615, "shots_on_target": 0.7769, "total_shots": 1.887, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5298, "rating": 6.6783, "minutes": 74.36, "total_pass": 9.945, "accurate_pass": 6.1842, "duels_won": 3.462, "total_long_balls": 0.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1613, "crosses_total": 0.2037, 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constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3468, "goals": 0.3615, "goal_rate": 0.3615, "shots_on_target": 0.7769, "total_shots": 1.887, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5298, "rating": 6.6783, "minutes": 74.36, "total_pass": 9.945, "accurate_pass": 6.1842, "duels_won": 3.462, "total_long_balls": 0.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1613, "crosses_total": 0.2037, "crosses_accurate": 0.0913, "touches": 21.073, "possession_lost": 7.8362, "dispossessed": 1.2406, "duels_lost": 5.6852, "aerial_lost": 2.8469, "total_contest": 0.9056, "won_contest": 0.3139, "ball_recovery": 1.6169, "challenges_lost": 0.1963, "fouls": 0.8752, "fouls_drawn": 0.7804, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1758, "tackles_won": 0.0604, "tackles": 0.4186, "clearances": 1.4699, "blocks": 0.1826, "big_chances_created": 0.075, "big_chances_missed": 1.1915, "xgot": 0.2749, "offsides": 0.7983, 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"expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2749, "after": 0.2465 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3109, "goal_rate": 0.3241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6966, "total_shots": 1.6919, "expected_assists": 0.0299, "key_pass": 0.5298, "rating": 6.6783, "minutes": 74.36, "total_pass": 9.945, "accurate_pass": 6.1842, "duels_won": 3.462, "total_long_balls": 0.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1613, "crosses_total": 0.2037, "crosses_accurate": 0.0913, "touches": 21.073, "possession_lost": 7.8362, "dispossessed": 1.2406, "duels_lost": 5.6852, "aerial_lost": 2.8469, "total_contest": 0.9056, "won_contest": 0.3139, "ball_recovery": 1.6169, "challenges_lost": 0.1963, "fouls": 0.8752, "fouls_drawn": 0.7804, "assist_rate": 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0.4186, "clearances": 1.4699, "blocks": 0.1826, "big_chances_created": 0.075, "big_chances_missed": 1.0683, "xgot": 0.2583, "offsides": 0.7983, "ball_carries": 4.2577, "total_progression": 13.222, "progressive_carries": 0.3927, "shots_off_target": 0.9909, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8966, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven", "opponent_faced": "Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0366, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 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"goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2781, "goal_rate": 0.3241, "scorer_weight": 0.3377, "squad_weight_total": 1.3073, "weight_share": 0.2583, "finishing_factor": 1.0366, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 1, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3258, "goal_rate": 0.3241, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6966, "total_shots": 1.6919, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.5298, "rating": 6.6783, "minutes": 74.36, "total_pass": 9.945, "accurate_pass": 6.1842, "duels_won": 3.462, "total_long_balls": 0.4988, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2975, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3389, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.1613, "crosses_total": 0.2037, "crosses_accurate": 0.0913, "touches": 21.073, "possession_lost": 7.8362, "dispossessed": 1.2406, "duels_lost": 5.6852, "aerial_lost": 2.8469, "total_contest": 0.9056, "won_contest": 0.3139, "ball_recovery": 1.6169, 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6.9598, "minutes": 87.7, "total_pass": 42.7967, "accurate_pass": 31.4876, "duels_won": 4.4858, "total_long_balls": 3.7298, "accurate_long_balls": 1.562, "total_own_half_passes": 15.5953, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.6547, "total_opp_half_passes": 27.2013, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.8328, "crosses_total": 3.167, "crosses_accurate": 0.9563, "touches": 59.4049, "possession_lost": 16.7014, "dispossessed": 0.7048, "duels_lost": 4.215, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3341, "interceptions": 0.7923, "tackles_won": 0.8661, "tackles": 1.9005, "clearances": 1.5395, "total_contest": 0.4286, "won_contest": 0.1949, "challenges_lost": 1.3907, "fouls": 0.6995, "fouls_drawn": 1.2982, "blocks": 0.2077, "big_chances_created": 0.3622, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0229, "ball_carries": 13.8029, "total_progression": 47.1258, "progressive_carries": 0.7173, "shots_off_target": 0.6766, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0273, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mateus Fernandes", "opponent_faced": "Mateus Fernandes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Mateus Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0273, "skill_edge": 0.0026, "height_edge": 0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.8877, "defender_skill": 0.882, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Mateus Fernandes", "market_value": 68000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.882 } ], "xg_override": 0.0556 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9582, "after": 0.9844 }, { "stat": 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"aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.3341, "interceptions": 0.7923, "tackles_won": 0.8661, "tackles": 1.9005, "clearances": 1.5395, "total_contest": 0.4286, "won_contest": 0.1949, "challenges_lost": 1.3907, "fouls": 0.6995, "fouls_drawn": 1.2982, "blocks": 0.2077, "big_chances_created": 0.3622, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0229, "ball_carries": 13.8029, "total_progression": 47.1258, "progressive_carries": 0.7173, "shots_off_target": 0.6766, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0273, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Mateus Fernandes", "opponent_faced": "Mateus Fernandes", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, 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"importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1197 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0101 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.008 } ], "others": -0.0267, "total": 0.377, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.119665 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049122 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023892 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.010063 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.008019 } ], "others_margin": -0.026755 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.729071140289307, "model_output": 6.7291, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0142 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.014 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.026, "total": 6.7291, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020416 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014188 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.01397 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.01182 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.00972 } ], "others_margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1879, "tackles": 2.0069, "tackles_won": 1.103, "clearances": 4.5444, "aerial_won": 1.6041, "total_shots": 0.381, "rating": 6.7291, "minutes": 89.66, "total_pass": 50.9349, "accurate_pass": 44.4821, "duels_won": 4.8198, "total_long_balls": 4.4912, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0798, "total_own_half_passes": 31.0313, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8275, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.9038, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.6547, "crosses_total": 0.2171, "crosses_accurate": 0.0963, "touches": 65.2987, "possession_lost": 7.8097, "dispossessed": 0.234, "duels_lost": 3.1941, "aerial_lost": 1.1748, "total_contest": 0.4205, "won_contest": 0.2002, "ball_recovery": 4.0917, "challenges_lost": 0.8035, "fouls": 0.7699, "fouls_drawn": 0.5109, "blocks": 0.5503, "goals": 0.0, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0262, "total": 0.5083, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059871 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018814 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.016597 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.010207 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.006856 } ], "others_margin": -0.02611 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7774338722229, "model_output": 6.7774, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": 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is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 3.0142, "goals_prevented": -0.0968, "rating": 6.892, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.1635, "accurate_pass": 16.2919, "total_long_balls": 15.8599, "accurate_long_balls": 4.1132, "touches": 38.6007, "clearances": 1.7456, "ball_recovery": 9.0067, "high_claims": 0.8317, "punches": 1.3097, "aerial_won": 0.2142, "sweeper_actions": 0.7888, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7888, "saves_inside_box": 2.6363, "possession_lost": 11.8936, "duels_won": 0.2794, "duels_lost": 0.0543, "total_contest": 0.0036, "won_contest": 0.0036, "fouls": 0.051, "fouls_drawn": 0.0237, "total_own_half_passes": 15.222, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.4937, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.495, "shots_faced": 14.5, "expected_saves": 3.55, "high_pressure_saves": 1.22, "opponent_faced": "Omar Marmoush, Mathys Tel", 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true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "West Ham United", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 24, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023957, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "West Ham United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "West Ham United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0091, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 40, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3065, "combined_rank_score": 1028.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 641.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.75, "sofascore_appearances": 14.0, "fifa_rank": 1415.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7898, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Axel Disasi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marco Palestra", "ranking": 3060 }, { "player_name": "Michael Gregoritsch", "ranking": 3061 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Pepi", "ranking": 3062 }, { "player_name": "Joakim Mæhle", "ranking": 3063 }, { "player_name": "Jarell Quansah", "ranking": 3064 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Konstantinos Karetsas", "ranking": 3066 }, { "player_name": "İlkay Gündoğan", "ranking": 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"contribution": 0.0573 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0347 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0191 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0656, "total": 0.5758, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057345 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.034705 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.031281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.019099 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.018921 } ], "others_margin": -0.065674 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.789780616760254, "model_output": 6.7898, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0078 } ], "others": 0.0102, "total": 6.7898, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018414 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.014756 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011217 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010569 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.007812 } ], "others_margin": 0.010194 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 18, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0052, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2067, "tackles": 1.5962, "tackles_won": 1.0097, "clearances": 5.2439, "aerial_won": 1.7037, "total_shots": 0.5788, "rating": 6.7898, "minutes": 82.86, "total_pass": 38.3798, "accurate_pass": 32.7882, "duels_won": 3.6734, "total_long_balls": 4.6689, "accurate_long_balls": 1.942, "total_own_half_passes": 25.7676, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.843, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.6122, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.9452, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 51.682, "possession_lost": 6.8259, "dispossessed": 0.2983, "duels_lost": 2.6583, "aerial_lost": 1.1447, "total_contest": 0.3649, "won_contest": 0.3649, "ball_recovery": 3.1645, "challenges_lost": 0.3314, "fouls": 0.8837, "fouls_drawn": 0.1572, "blocks": 0.8481, "goals": 0.0, 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"possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0388 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0235, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0353 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0325 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0167 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": -0.0857, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035254 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.033115 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.032491 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.01673 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.012675 } ], "others_margin": -0.002384 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 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], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandru Mitriță", "ranking": 3730 }, { "player_name": "Fabio Carvalho", "ranking": 3731 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Buonanotte", "ranking": 3732 }, { "player_name": "Shea Charles", "ranking": 3733 }, { "player_name": "Mojmír Chytil", "ranking": 3734 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.438, "history_matches": 3, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", 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}, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.048592 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.041282 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.039146 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.032436 } ], "others_margin": -0.172215 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.3472613096237183, "model_output": 1.3473, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2432 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1458 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1406 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0746 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0764 } ], "others": 0.022, "total": 1.3473, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.065301 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.131966 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.127537 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.061594 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.059402 } ], "others_margin": 0.016371 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.49975836277008057, "model_output": 0.4998, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8608 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0835 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0473 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0382 } ], "others": 0.0161, "total": 0.4998, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.984434 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.177427 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.098647 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.095087 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.075902 } ], "others_margin": 0.032416 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.14605315029621124, "model_output": 0.1461, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1969 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0759 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0417, "total": 0.1461, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.196912 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.075935 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018615 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.014102 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.013246 } ], "others_margin": -0.041708 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.792426586151123, "model_output": 6.7924, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.012 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0112 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0106 } ], "others": -0.0026, "total": 6.7924, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.020003 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012415 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.011991 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.011174 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.0106 } ], "others_margin": -0.002601 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles": 0.4531, "tackles_won": 0.2366, "clearances": 1.1782, "aerial_won": 0.437, "total_shots": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7924, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 26.9443, "accurate_pass": 23.8654, "duels_won": 3.5191, "total_long_balls": 1.5679, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2456, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7926, "crosses_total": 0.2456, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.488, "possession_lost": 4.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9824, "aerial_lost": 0.2957, "total_contest": 0.3399, "won_contest": 0.3399, "ball_recovery": 0.9824, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.4912, "fouls_drawn": 1.5679, "blocks": 0.3399, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4334, "total_progression": 45.6841, "progressive_carries": 0.4912, "key_pass": 0.2456, "shots_off_target": 0.1278, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.361, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.95 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles": 0.4531, "tackles_won": 0.2366, "clearances": 1.1782, "aerial_won": 0.437, "total_shots": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7924, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 26.9443, "accurate_pass": 23.8654, "duels_won": 3.5191, "total_long_balls": 1.5679, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2456, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7926, "crosses_total": 0.2456, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.488, "possession_lost": 4.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9824, 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"step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2527, "tackles": 0.4531, "tackles_won": 0.2366, "clearances": 1.1782, "aerial_won": 0.437, "total_shots": 0.1278, "rating": 6.7924, "minutes": 14.95, "total_pass": 26.9443, "accurate_pass": 23.8654, "duels_won": 3.5191, "total_long_balls": 1.5679, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2456, "total_own_half_passes": 18.8295, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0728, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.115, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7926, "crosses_total": 0.2456, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 37.488, "possession_lost": 4.4955, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.9824, "aerial_lost": 0.2957, "total_contest": 0.3399, "won_contest": 0.3399, "ball_recovery": 0.9824, "challenges_lost": 0.2957, "fouls": 0.4912, "fouls_drawn": 1.5679, "blocks": 0.3399, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.003, "shots_on_target": 0.0, 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"margin": 0.040553 } ], "others_margin": 0.045534 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2809, "model_output": 0.162, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2381 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0062 } ], "others": -0.0299, "total": 0.162, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.238081 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.023099 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011982 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", 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6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092966 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.026617 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020096 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011006 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009991 } ], "others_margin": -0.010462 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3705, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.1174, "total_shots": 0.5994, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 26.4212, "accurate_pass": 20.0737, "duels_won": 6.0256, "total_long_balls": 1.9801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9479, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6051, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8885, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4686, "crosses_total": 0.3692, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5688, "possession_lost": 11.346, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 4.9791, "aerial_won": 0.4344, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.62, "tackles_won": 1.2572, "tackles": 2.3702, "clearances": 1.0085, "total_contest": 2.0937, "won_contest": 0.9786, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.392, "fouls_drawn": 2.2423, "blocks": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2348, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 10.2955, "total_progression": 44.9222, "progressive_carries": 1.6564, "shots_off_target": 0.482 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0245, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0734, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2046, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0734, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.54 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0608, "after": 0.0344 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0389, "after": 0.0221 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1488, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "scorer_weight": 0.0383, "squad_weight_total": 1.3073, "weight_share": 0.0293, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "provider_weight": 0.0276, "squad_weight_total": 0.7286, "weight_share": 0.0379, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Óscar Mingueza": { "player_id": 859773, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 184, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0315, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363252, "match_date": "2026-08-28", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", 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6.721327304840088, "model_output": 6.7213, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 6.7213, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091681 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032739 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01716 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012517 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.007186 } ], "others_margin": -0.012806 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.384, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.3172, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1305, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.588, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3314, "fouls_drawn": 0.1566, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2113 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.384, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.1058, "total_shots": 0.3169, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1293, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3311, "fouls_drawn": 0.1564, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2113 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.198, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "assists": 0.0462, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.01, "projection_minutes": 17.82, "minutes_scale": 1.0668, "appearance_probability": 0.707 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "assists": 0.0462, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.707 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0267, "after": 0.0198 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0432, "after": 0.0322 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 896, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "scorer_weight": 0.0218, "squad_weight_total": 1.3073, "weight_share": 0.0167, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0315, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "provider_weight": 0.0332, "squad_weight_total": 0.7286, "weight_share": 0.0456, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "player_id": 845286, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, 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}, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0295, "total": 0.3365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.4355 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042197 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040645 } ], "others_margin": -0.084204 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6293416023254395, "model_output": 6.6293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0548 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 6.6293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054767 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015804 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007673 } ], "others_margin": -0.045344 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1178, "goals": 0.1512, "goal_rate": 0.1512, "shots_on_target": 0.271, "total_shots": 0.7174, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3407, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7927, "accurate_pass": 4.0654, "duels_won": 0.2355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7028, "crosses_total": 0.5423, "crosses_accurate": 0.258, "touches": 9.2282, "possession_lost": 3.3255, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.6397, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.277, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.569, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1273, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1082, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1813, "xgot": 0.0286, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1371, "total_progression": 7.8898, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.4464 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.71, "projection_minutes": 22.31, "minutes_scale": 1.1973, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2094, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.141, "after": 0.0921 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0191 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, "offsides": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, 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scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, 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"F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.977, "expected_assists": 0.3296, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": 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"home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1984, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2851, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1418.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0516, "total": 6.647, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055501 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012073 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.011278 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009948 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008651 } ], "others_margin": -0.051578 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1245, "goals": 0.1866, "goal_rate": 0.1866, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "total_shots": 0.8951, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3219, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 29.25, "total_pass": 5.5812, "accurate_pass": 3.4364, "duels_won": 1.7028, "total_long_balls": 0.2676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1275, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1925, "crosses_total": 0.0347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6573, "possession_lost": 4.602, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.528, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.3039, "won_contest": 0.1764, "ball_recovery": 0.9733, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6697, "fouls_drawn": 0.157, "assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0566, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1349, "clearances": 0.2173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.2574, "xgot": 0.016, "offsides": 0.2168, "ball_carries": 1.9326, "total_progression": 9.7401, "progressive_carries": 0.5123, "shots_off_target": 0.5552 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0045)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1245, "goals": 0.1858, "goal_rate": 0.1858, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 0.894, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3219, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 29.25, "total_pass": 5.5812, "accurate_pass": 3.4364, "duels_won": 1.7028, "total_long_balls": 0.2676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1275, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1925, "crosses_total": 0.0345, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6573, "possession_lost": 4.602, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.528, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.3039, "won_contest": 0.1764, "ball_recovery": 0.9733, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1578, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0015, "tackles": 0.1349, "clearances": 0.2173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.2574, "xgot": 0.016, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.9326, "total_progression": 9.7401, "progressive_carries": 0.5123, "shots_off_target": 0.5552 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0045, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.325, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.2 to 27.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1166, "goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.174, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.4, "projection_minutes": 29.25, "minutes_scale": 0.9368, "appearance_probability": 0.555 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1166, "goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.174, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1166, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.555 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1166, "after": 0.0678 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0297, "after": 0.0174 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2851, "fifa_rank": 1418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0638, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.174, "scorer_weight": 0.0847, "squad_weight_total": 1.3073, "weight_share": 0.0648, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.555, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0638, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0171, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "provider_weight": 0.0217, "squad_weight_total": 0.7286, "weight_share": 0.0299, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.555, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Óscar Mingueza": { "player_id": 859773, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 184, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0315, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363269, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0917 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0327 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0072 } ], "others": -0.0128, "total": 6.7213, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.091681 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.032739 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.01716 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012517 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.007186 } ], "others_margin": -0.012806 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.384, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.1059, "total_shots": 0.3172, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1305, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.588, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3314, "fouls_drawn": 0.1566, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2113 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0011)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.384, "expected_assists": 0.0405, "assists": 0.0433, "assist_rate": 0.0433, "expected_goals": 0.025, "goals": 0.0322, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "shots_on_target": 0.1058, "total_shots": 0.3169, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 17.82, "total_pass": 13.6902, "accurate_pass": 11.5397, "duels_won": 1.2666, "total_long_balls": 1.0414, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3745, "total_own_half_passes": 4.5076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.7252, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1826, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.8146, "crosses_total": 1.1293, "crosses_accurate": 0.1885, "touches": 20.381, "possession_lost": 4.2746, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.2533, "aerial_won": 0.1248, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.017, "tackles_won": 0.5884, "tackles": 0.882, "clearances": 0.3496, "total_contest": 0.2039, "won_contest": 0.1031, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3311, "fouls_drawn": 0.1564, "blocks": 0.0885, "big_chances_created": 0.1391, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.6127, "total_progression": 15.6439, "progressive_carries": 0.3613, "shots_off_target": 0.2113 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0011, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.198, "prior_reliability": 0.0133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 17.8 to 19.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.71)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "assists": 0.0462, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.01, "projection_minutes": 17.82, "minutes_scale": 1.0668, "appearance_probability": 0.707 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "assists": 0.0462, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0432, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.707 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0267, "after": 0.0198 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0432, "after": 0.0322 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 896, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "scorer_weight": 0.0218, "squad_weight_total": 1.3073, "weight_share": 0.0167, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4096, "expected_assists": 0.0322, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0198, "goal_rate": 0.0344, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1129, "total_shots": 0.3383, "rating": 6.7213, "minutes": 19.01, "total_pass": 14.6044, "accurate_pass": 12.3103, "duels_won": 1.3512, "total_long_balls": 1.1109, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3995, "total_own_half_passes": 4.8086, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.974, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.7958, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.3365, "crosses_total": 1.2047, "crosses_accurate": 0.2011, "touches": 21.742, "possession_lost": 4.5601, "dispossessed": 0.1476, "duels_lost": 1.337, "aerial_won": 0.1331, "aerial_lost": 0.2232, "interceptions": 0.0181, "tackles_won": 0.6277, "tackles": 0.9409, "clearances": 0.3729, "total_contest": 0.2175, "won_contest": 0.11, "challenges_lost": 0.4503, "fouls": 0.3532, "fouls_drawn": 0.1668, "blocks": 0.0944, "big_chances_created": 0.1484, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.854, "total_progression": 16.6886, "progressive_carries": 0.3854, "shots_off_target": 0.2254, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.707, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.01, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0195, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0315, "finishing_factor": 1.1004, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0315, "assist_rate": 0.0462, "provider_weight": 0.0332, "squad_weight_total": 0.7286, "weight_share": 0.0456, "creation_factor": 1.0322, "appearance_weight": 0.707, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "player_id": 845286, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, 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}, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.245 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0184 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0152 } ], "others": -0.0295, "total": 0.3365, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.4355 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045138 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042197 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.040645 } ], "others_margin": -0.084204 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.6293416023254395, "model_output": 6.6293, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0548 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0158 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0077 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 6.6293, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.054767 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015804 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011017 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009557 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007673 } ], "others_margin": -0.045344 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0125, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1178, "goals": 0.1512, "goal_rate": 0.1512, "shots_on_target": 0.271, "total_shots": 0.7174, "expected_assists": 0.0243, "key_pass": 0.3407, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 22.31, "total_pass": 5.7927, "accurate_pass": 4.0654, "duels_won": 0.2355, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7746, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7028, "crosses_total": 0.5423, "crosses_accurate": 0.258, "touches": 9.2282, "possession_lost": 3.3255, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.6397, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.277, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.569, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1273, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1082, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1813, "xgot": 0.0286, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.1371, "total_progression": 7.8898, "progressive_carries": 0.3436, "shots_off_target": 0.4464 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 43000000, "quality_factor": 0.7957, "boost_factor": 1.0125, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 22.3 to 26.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.62)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.71, "projection_minutes": 22.31, "minutes_scale": 1.1973, "appearance_probability": 0.623 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.141, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0342, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, "total_progression": 9.4461, "progressive_carries": 0.4114, "shots_off_target": 0.5345, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.623, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.71, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2094, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.623 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.141, "after": 0.0921 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0191 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 81.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, "offsides": 0.0, 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"integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, 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scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0921, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3245, "total_shots": 0.859, "expected_assists": 0.0191, "key_pass": 0.4079, "rating": 6.6293, "minutes": 26.71, "total_pass": 6.9354, "accurate_pass": 4.8673, "duels_won": 0.282, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.5192, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.236, "crosses_total": 0.6493, "crosses_accurate": 0.3089, "touches": 11.0485, "possession_lost": 3.9815, "dispossessed": 0.2995, "duels_lost": 1.9631, "aerial_lost": 0.9359, "total_contest": 0.3316, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.8785, "challenges_lost": 0.1273, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1524, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1295, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2171, "xgot": 0.0223, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.5587, 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"F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, 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"league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363875, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.977, "expected_assists": 0.3296, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": 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"home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1984, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2851, "combined_rank_score": 964.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1418.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", 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"accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0516, "total": 6.647, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.055501 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012073 }, { "name": "press_resistance_fwd", "margin": 0.011278 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009948 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.008651 } ], "others_margin": -0.051578 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.786)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1245, "goals": 0.1866, "goal_rate": 0.1866, "shots_on_target": 0.3398, "total_shots": 0.8951, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3219, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 29.25, "total_pass": 5.5812, "accurate_pass": 3.4364, "duels_won": 1.7028, "total_long_balls": 0.2676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1275, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1925, "crosses_total": 0.0347, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6573, "possession_lost": 4.602, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.528, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.3039, "won_contest": 0.1764, "ball_recovery": 0.9733, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6697, "fouls_drawn": 0.157, "assists": 0.0566, "assist_rate": 0.0566, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1349, "clearances": 0.2173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.2574, "xgot": 0.016, "offsides": 0.2168, "ball_carries": 1.9326, "total_progression": 9.7401, "progressive_carries": 0.5123, "shots_off_target": 0.5552 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 41000000, "quality_factor": 0.7859, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0045)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1245, "goals": 0.1858, "goal_rate": 0.1858, "shots_on_target": 0.3397, "total_shots": 0.894, "expected_assists": 0.0317, "key_pass": 0.3219, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 29.25, "total_pass": 5.5812, "accurate_pass": 3.4364, "duels_won": 1.7028, "total_long_balls": 0.2676, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1275, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.1804, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1925, "crosses_total": 0.0345, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.6573, "possession_lost": 4.602, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.528, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.3039, "won_contest": 0.1764, "ball_recovery": 0.9733, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6711, "fouls_drawn": 0.1578, "assists": 0.0563, "assist_rate": 0.0563, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0015, "tackles": 0.1349, "clearances": 0.2173, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0605, "big_chances_missed": 0.2574, "xgot": 0.016, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.9326, "total_progression": 9.7401, "progressive_carries": 0.5123, "shots_off_target": 0.5552 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0045, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.325, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Crystal Palace" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 29.2 to 27.4 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1166, "goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.174, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.4, "projection_minutes": 29.25, "minutes_scale": 0.9368, "appearance_probability": 0.555 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1166, "goals": 0.174, "goal_rate": 0.174, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assists": 0.0527, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1166, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0297, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.015, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.555 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1166, "after": 0.0678 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0297, "after": 0.0174 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2851, "fifa_rank": 1418.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0638, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0638, "goal_rate": 0.174, "scorer_weight": 0.0847, "squad_weight_total": 1.3073, "weight_share": 0.0648, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.555, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0678, "goal_rate": 0.174, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3182, "total_shots": 0.8383, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "key_pass": 0.3015, "rating": 6.647, "minutes": 27.4, "total_pass": 5.2282, "accurate_pass": 3.2191, "duels_won": 1.5951, "total_long_balls": 0.2507, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1194, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.916, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0538, "crosses_total": 0.0323, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.9832, "possession_lost": 4.3109, "dispossessed": 0.5068, "duels_lost": 2.3681, "aerial_lost": 1.2464, "total_contest": 0.2847, "won_contest": 0.1652, "ball_recovery": 0.9117, "challenges_lost": 0.1274, "fouls": 0.6287, "fouls_drawn": 0.1478, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0014, "tackles": 0.1264, "clearances": 0.2036, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0567, "big_chances_missed": 0.2411, "xgot": 0.0087, "offsides": 0.2158, "ball_carries": 1.8104, "total_progression": 9.1241, "progressive_carries": 0.4799, "shots_off_target": 0.5201, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.555, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.4, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0638, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0171, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0171, "assist_rate": 0.0527, "provider_weight": 0.0217, "squad_weight_total": 0.7286, "weight_share": 0.0299, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.555, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] }, "Quinten Timber": { "player_id": 959805, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 177, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 13, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 54, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363883, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, 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"season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363866, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Leeds United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1185, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363643, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": 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"is_starting_11", "margin": -0.379608 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.054675 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04534 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.028258 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.019694 } ], "others_margin": -0.034985 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7048540115356445, "model_output": 6.7049, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.093 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0201 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 6.7049, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.092966 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.026617 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020096 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011006 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.009991 } ], "others_margin": -0.010462 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0245, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3705, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0505, "goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.1174, "total_shots": 0.5994, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 26.4212, "accurate_pass": 20.0737, "duels_won": 6.0256, "total_long_balls": 1.9801, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9479, "total_own_half_passes": 10.5328, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6051, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8885, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4686, "crosses_total": 0.3692, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5688, "possession_lost": 11.346, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 4.9791, "aerial_won": 0.4344, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.62, "tackles_won": 1.2572, "tackles": 2.3702, "clearances": 1.0085, "total_contest": 2.0937, "won_contest": 0.9786, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.392, "fouls_drawn": 2.2423, "blocks": 0.1442, "big_chances_created": 0.2348, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0099, "ball_carries": 10.2955, "total_progression": 44.9222, "progressive_carries": 1.6564, "shots_off_target": 0.482 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0245, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0734, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2046, "appearance_probability": 0.54 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0626, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goals": 0.0734, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0608, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0119, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.25 (squad xG sum 1.1947, xG scale 1.0480, xA scale 1.0543, team xA 0.81 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.252, "squad_xg_sum": 1.1947, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7719, "team_expected_assists": 0.8138, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.048, "xa_scale": 1.0543, "opponent_lambda": 1.529, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.54 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0608, "after": 0.0344 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0389, "after": 0.0221 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1488, "fifa_rank": 896.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "scorer_weight": 0.0383, "squad_weight_total": 1.3073, "weight_share": 0.0293, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4463, "expected_assists": 0.0221, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0344, "goal_rate": 0.0734, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1414, "total_shots": 0.722, "rating": 6.7049, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 31.8269, "accurate_pass": 24.1807, "duels_won": 7.2584, "total_long_balls": 2.3852, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1418, "total_own_half_passes": 12.6878, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.5703, "total_opp_half_passes": 19.1393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.6105, "crosses_total": 0.4447, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.6875, "possession_lost": 13.6674, "dispossessed": 1.524, "duels_lost": 5.9978, "aerial_won": 0.5233, "aerial_lost": 0.9479, "interceptions": 0.7469, "tackles_won": 1.5144, "tackles": 2.8551, "clearances": 1.2148, "total_contest": 2.5221, "won_contest": 1.1788, "challenges_lost": 0.1996, "fouls": 1.6768, "fouls_drawn": 2.7011, "blocks": 0.1737, "big_chances_created": 0.2828, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0067, "ball_carries": 12.4019, "total_progression": 54.1132, "progressive_carries": 1.9953, "shots_off_target": 0.5806, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.54, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.786, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0333, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "finishing_factor": 1.1137, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0217, "assist_rate": 0.0626, "provider_weight": 0.0276, "squad_weight_total": 0.7286, "weight_share": 0.0379, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.54, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.25, "expected_assists": 0.81, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 424, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 22, "avg_rating": 6.83, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "James Maddison", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16399999, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.594, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.278, "xg_contribution": 0.056, "xg_multiplier": 0.7913, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.722 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Maddison (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jaydee Canvot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €32M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.79 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Omar Marmoush", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 55000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.84, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.705, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.213, "xg_contribution": 0.1845, "xg_multiplier": 1.0184, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.787 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omar Marmoush (ST) is evenly matched against Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€55M vs €28M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.02 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.185 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mohammed Kudus", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.705, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1174, "xg_multiplier": 0.9645, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohammed Kudus (ST) is evenly matched against Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €28M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.117 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Mathys Tel", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.705, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.141, "xg_multiplier": 0.8991, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaydee Canvot", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mathys Tel (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jaydee Canvot and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.141 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.842, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.311, "xg_multiplier": 0.8966, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Micky van de Ven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jean-Philippe Mateta (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Jan Paul van Hecke and Micky van de Ven in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €57M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.311 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dwight McNeil", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.865, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0932, "xg_multiplier": 0.8482, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mateus Fernandes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 68000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dwight McNeil (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Mateus Fernandes and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.85 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yéremy Pino", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.865, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1164, "xg_multiplier": 0.8064, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mateus Fernandes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 68000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jan Paul van Hecke", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yéremy Pino (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Mateus Fernandes and Jan Paul van Hecke in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €66M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.81 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Andy Robertson" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.0962, "xg_multiplier": 1.0652, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andy Robertson", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (LWB) is slightly favored against Andy Robertson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Tyrick Mitchell", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Pedro Porro" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.352, "xg_contribution": 0.0612, "xg_multiplier": 0.93, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Porro", "role": "LB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.648 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrick Mitchell (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pedro Porro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €42M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Mateus Fernandes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "xg_contribution": 0.0556, "xg_multiplier": 1.0273, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mateus Fernandes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 68000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.531 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is evenly matched against Mateus Fernandes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Anan Khalaili", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Mateus Fernandes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0925, "xg_multiplier": 0.9033, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mateus Fernandes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 68000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anan Khalaili (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mateus Fernandes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €68M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.782, "away_midfield_power": 0.709, "home_creative_power": 0.761, "away_creative_power": 0.73, "home_defensive_power": 0.751, "away_defensive_power": 0.658, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.525, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Sandro Tonali", "James Maddison" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Daichi Kamada", "Tyrick Mitchell", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Sandro Tonali vs Adam Wharton", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.01, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.994 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.529, "away_lambda": 1.252, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "James Maddison": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar Marmoush": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mohammed Kudus": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mathys Tel": { "opponents": [ "Jaydee Canvot", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jan Paul van Hecke": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "Dwight McNeil", "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Micky van de Ven": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mateus Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Dwight McNeil", "Yéremy Pino", "Adam Wharton", "Anan Khalaili", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andy Robertson": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Porro": { "opponents": [ "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sandro Tonali": { "opponents": [ "Anan Khalaili" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Antonín Kinský": { "opponents": [ "Jean-Philippe Mateta", "Yéremy Pino" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "James Maddison", "Omar Marmoush", "Mohammed Kudus", "Mathys Tel" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Mohammed Kudus", "Mathys Tel" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jean-Philippe Mateta": { "opponents": [ "Jan Paul van Hecke", "Micky van de Ven" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dwight McNeil": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yéremy Pino": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Jan Paul van Hecke" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "Andy Robertson", "James Maddison" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Porro", "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anan Khalaili": { "opponents": [ "Mateus Fernandes", "Sandro Tonali" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Omar Marmoush", "Mohammed Kudus" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Axel Disasi": { "opponents": [ "Mathys Tel" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Sandro Tonali vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9358, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1477, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1749, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9368, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9024, "home_midfield_factor": 1.01, "away_midfield_factor": 0.994, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7633, "away_avg_quality": 0.6793, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0841, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4518, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.4908, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.3009, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2086, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1147, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0668, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4989, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 0.8128 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.8209 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 0.8619 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.1198 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0563, "result": 1.1829 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 1.0633 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9368, "result": 0.9961 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1477, "result": 1.1438 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1438, "result": 1.1438, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2086, "factor": 1.1147, "pre": 1.1438, "result": 1.2751 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2751 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.495 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.495 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.495, "result": 1.495, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.45 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.45, "result": 1.4707, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.471 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.471 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.471, "result": 1.471, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.053, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.529 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8261, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9821 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.994, "result": 0.9762 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.9274 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9274 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.952, "result": 0.8829 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9358, "result": 0.8261 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9024, "result": 0.7455 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1749, "result": 0.9204 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9204, "result": 0.9204, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2086, "factor": 0.9332, "pre": 0.9204, "result": 0.859 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.859 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.079 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": false, "reason": "non-target league or squad priors not found", "result": 1.079 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.079, "result": 1.079, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.187 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.187, "result": 1.17, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.17 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.17 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.17, "result": 1.17, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.053, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.252 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.471, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.17, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.495, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.079, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.053, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.529, "final_away_lambda": 1.252 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0563, "attack_index": 0.888, "defense_concede_index": 1.285, "form_multiplier": 1.009, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.23, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.78, "team_ppg": 1.22, "opponent_ppg": 1.08 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.952, "attack_index": 0.924, "defense_concede_index": 0.96, "form_multiplier": 0.991, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.28, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.33, "team_ppg": 1.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.22 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.495, Away 1.079). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.529, Away 1.252 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 11, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": false, "reason": "Non-target league or squad priors not found" }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.529, "away_lambda": 1.252, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.495, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.079 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.053, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:33:06Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }