{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Ipswich", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.121, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0861, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0838, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": "Draw", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2561, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.121 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0861 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0844 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0838 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0822 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0632, "0-1": 0.0838, "0-2": 0.0583, "0-3": 0.0267, "0-4": 0.0092, "0-5": 0.0025, "0-6": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.0861, "1-1": 0.121, "1-2": 0.0822, "1-3": 0.0376, "1-4": 0.0129, "1-5": 0.0035, "1-6": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0615, "2-1": 0.0844, "2-2": 0.0579, "2-3": 0.0265, "2-4": 0.0091, "2-5": 0.0025, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0289, "3-1": 0.0396, "3-2": 0.0272, "3-3": 0.0124, "3-4": 0.0043, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0102, "4-1": 0.014, "4-2": 0.0096, "4-3": 0.0044, "4-4": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0029, "5-1": 0.0039, "5-2": 0.0027, "5-3": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0007, "6-1": 0.0009, "6-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3804, "draw": 0.2561, "away_win": 0.3635 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5652, "btts_no": 0.4348, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2536, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2444 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.68, "MCR": 6.77, "ATR": 6.95, "GK": 7.0 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.83, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.79, "GK": 6.91 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Hull vs Ipswich. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Hull 4W-2D-4L vs Ipswich over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Oliver McBurnie, Emersonn", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Tim Iroegbunam vs Julio Enciso will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.61, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.409, "away_lambda": 1.372, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 4, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 1.0, "away_multiplier": 1.0 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.121, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3804, "draw": 0.2561, "away_win": 0.3635 }, "favorite": "Hull", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3804, "fair_spread": 0.037, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.409, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.372, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5652, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2536, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2444, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oliver McBurnie (Hull)", "estimate": 0.4212, "probability": 0.3437, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Emersonn (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.3598, "probability": 0.3022, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Mohamed Belloumi (Hull)", "estimate": 0.2218, "probability": 0.1989, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1714, "probability": 0.1575, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 681, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.7, "possession_home_pct": 48.3, "possession_away_pct": 51.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Hull", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3804, "script": "Hull is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.04 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Hull lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Ipswich chance creation leans on Emersonn against Semi Ajayi, John Egan in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through Oliver McBurnie; bench watchlist: Robinio Vaz, Lucas Herrington, Ilyas Ansah.", "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through Emersonn; bench watchlist: Jack Clarke, Zian Flemming.", "Assist usage should flow through Mohamed Belloumi, Julio Enciso; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Hull tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Hull.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Hull": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Lewie Coyle": { "player_id": 827587, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 173, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6053, "minutes": 79, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 8.9947, "dispossessed": 0.2325, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.038, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso, Dara O'Shea", "matchup_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0373, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0215, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8237, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363896, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363885, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0535, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363876, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363868, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0356, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1344, "expected_assists": 0.0123, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363262, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363250, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Coventry City", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Coventry City", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4885, "combined_rank_score": 2981.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 391.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 5572.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6053, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lewie Coyle", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cédric Zesiger", "ranking": 4880 }, { "player_name": "Timothé Cognat", "ranking": 4881 }, { "player_name": "Alvyn Sanches", "ranking": 4882 }, { "player_name": "Mattia Zanotti", "ranking": 4883 }, { "player_name": "Silas Andersen", "ranking": 4884 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gil Dias", "ranking": 4886 }, { "player_name": "Rafik Guitane", "ranking": 4887 }, { "player_name": "Marcelo Flores", "ranking": 4888 }, { "player_name": "Sikou Niakaté", "ranking": 4889 }, { "player_name": "Mateu Morey", "ranking": 4890 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.763, "history_matches": 8, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 8, "data_confidence": 0.763, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9922, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Hull City", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 114.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0867 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 8 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Hull City, rel: 0.09, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.623, "tackles": 1.6968, "tackles_won": 0.9702, "clearances": 2.2473, "aerial_won": 0.6283, "total_shots": 0.3626, "rating": 6.6053, "minutes": 79.43, "total_pass": 20.3263, "accurate_pass": 15.9383, "duels_won": 2.1479, "total_long_balls": 3.1164, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2292, "total_own_half_passes": 7.2803, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4242, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.046, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.5141, "crosses_total": 2.7329, "crosses_accurate": 0.2977, "touches": 35.9531, "possession_lost": 9.0654, "dispossessed": 0.2343, "duels_lost": 1.597, "aerial_lost": 0.5466, "total_contest": 0.2979, "won_contest": 0.1489, "ball_recovery": 2.6823, "challenges_lost": 0.3744, "fouls": 0.2928, "fouls_drawn": 0.4367, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0238, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.7817, "total_progression": 32.4179, "progressive_carries": 0.4285, "key_pass": 0.1737, "shots_off_target": 0.3626 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": 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"feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 2.1894, "aerialWon": 0.1439, "totalClearance_p90": 2.7797, "totalTackle": 1.4184, "totalPass": 20.3263 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.6229748725891113, "model_output": 0.623, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "importance": 0.0208 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8678, "items": [ { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.1168 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0922 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0568 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0249 } ], "others": -0.1003, "total": 0.623, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.141777, 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"minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.09 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.049 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0178 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0113 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0729, "total": 0.3522, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.089958 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048982 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017762 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.011337 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007497 } ], "others_margin": -0.072992 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.724503517150879, "model_output": 6.7245, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0195, "total": 6.7245, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.014145 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01207 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009608 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008959 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.008432 } ], "others_margin": -0.019502 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.081, "tackles": 2.0821, "tackles_won": 1.3912, "clearances": 3.78, "aerial_won": 1.0435, "total_shots": 0.3495, "rating": 6.7245, "minutes": 88.63, "total_pass": 26.4383, "accurate_pass": 21.0088, "duels_won": 3.879, "total_long_balls": 4.7713, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0049, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8027, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.0433, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.6355, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.9656, "crosses_total": 0.842, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1854, "possession_lost": 7.1748, "dispossessed": 0.2164, "duels_lost": 2.5649, "aerial_lost": 0.8299, "total_contest": 0.6968, "won_contest": 0.4161, "ball_recovery": 3.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.9427, "fouls": 0.2954, "fouls_drawn": 0.0772, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0656, 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39.1854, "possession_lost": 7.1748, "dispossessed": 0.2164, "duels_lost": 2.5649, "aerial_lost": 0.8299, "total_contest": 0.6968, "won_contest": 0.4161, "ball_recovery": 3.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.9427, "fouls": 0.287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0914, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0802, "goal_rate": 0.0802, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "shots_on_target": 0.0802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0638, "ball_carries": 9.1413, "total_progression": 34.1516, "progressive_carries": 0.7775, "key_pass": 0.2046, "shots_off_target": 0.2839 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0832, "tackles": 2.0821, "tackles_won": 1.3682, "clearances": 3.78, "aerial_won": 1.0435, "total_shots": 0.3641, "rating": 6.7245, "minutes": 88.63, "total_pass": 26.4383, 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7.9656, "crosses_total": 0.8346, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 39.1854, "possession_lost": 7.1748, "dispossessed": 0.2164, "duels_lost": 2.5649, "aerial_lost": 0.8299, "total_contest": 0.6968, "won_contest": 0.4161, "ball_recovery": 3.5291, "challenges_lost": 0.9427, "fouls": 0.287, "fouls_drawn": 0.0914, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0802, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "shots_on_target": 0.0802, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0638, "ball_carries": 9.1413, "total_progression": 34.1516, "progressive_carries": 0.7775, "key_pass": 0.2046, "shots_off_target": 0.2839, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521, "opponent_faced": "Julio Enciso", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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0.1266, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0025, "ball_carries": 6.1771, "total_progression": 32.4055, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.149, "shots_off_target": 0.4006 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2062, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1753, "rating": 7.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.149, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 78.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1266, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Chelsea", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1076, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-05", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0915, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Coventry City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0778, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0661, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 8.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "totalClearance": 6.6632, "aerialWon": 1.323, "totalClearance_p90": 6.6826, "totalTackle": 1.4435, "totalPass": 23.3126 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "interceptionWon", "predicted": 0.9320065975189209, "model_output": 0.932, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2977 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0318 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0281 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", 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"totalClearance", "predicted": 5.861717224121094, "model_output": 5.8617, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.7951 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.5751 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.3734 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.2606 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.195 } ], "others": 0.2398, "total": 5.8617, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.208874 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127818 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.075031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049207 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.035309 } ], "others_margin": 0.041767 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.9388048648834229, "model_output": 1.9388, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1687 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1812 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.1698 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.131 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.1307 } ], "others": 0.0451, "total": 1.9388, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.115759 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.111024 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.093922 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.07167 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.071515 } ], "others_margin": 0.023543 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5271947979927063, "model_output": 0.5272, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0552 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0133 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0095 } ], "others": -0.0514, "total": 0.5272, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055163 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.03402 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013494 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.013346 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.009492 } ], "others_margin": -0.051413 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.711421489715576, "model_output": 6.7114, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0491 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0117 } ], "others": -0.0021, "total": 6.7114, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.049116 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.017344 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.016096 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012935 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.011684 } ], "others_margin": -0.001992 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9922, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9247, "tackles": 1.3946, "tackles_won": 0.8262, "clearances": 5.816, "aerial_won": 1.9237, "total_shots": 0.5231, "rating": 6.7114, "minutes": 88.78, "total_pass": 23.1308, "accurate_pass": 18.1115, "duels_won": 3.1233, "total_long_balls": 4.1351, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0405, "total_own_half_passes": 14.8458, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.6934, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.285, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.4182, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 36.5592, "possession_lost": 5.9768, "dispossessed": 0.4295, "duels_lost": 3.5641, "aerial_lost": 2.5496, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.3575, "challenges_lost": 0.2807, "fouls": 0.3043, "fouls_drawn": 0.4556, "blocks": 1.0873, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 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"ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0236 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.016 } ], "others": -0.0208, "total": 0.5785, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.062609 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024603 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024354 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.023637 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.016035 } ], "others_margin": -0.020796 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.802388668060303, "model_output": 6.8024, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0113 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0098 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0085 } ], "others": 0.0197, "total": 6.8024, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.01129 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010886 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010564 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009789 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.008525 } ], "others_margin": 0.019594 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0060, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9842, "tackles": 1.3504, "tackles_won": 0.7875, "clearances": 6.4467, "aerial_won": 2.0198, "total_shots": 0.582, "rating": 6.8024, "minutes": 75.06, "total_pass": 31.2818, "accurate_pass": 25.6038, "duels_won": 3.0702, "total_long_balls": 5.8003, "accurate_long_balls": 2.1188, "total_own_half_passes": 21.6442, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20.114, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.6376, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.4898, "crosses_total": 0.1467, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 45.7686, "possession_lost": 6.3681, "dispossessed": 0.1468, "duels_lost": 2.9913, "aerial_lost": 1.3728, "total_contest": 0.0197, "won_contest": 0.0171, "ball_recovery": 2.2198, "challenges_lost": 0.3322, "fouls": 1.2394, "fouls_drawn": 0.3885, "blocks": 1.3029, "goals": 0.1148, 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"margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045001 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.028864 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.016135 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012846 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.009227 } ], "others_margin": -0.032257 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 35, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0030, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.1781, "total_shots": 0.8059, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.3302, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3561, "tackles_won": 2.4964, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7264, "fouls_drawn": 1.0122, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6278 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.178, "total_shots": 0.8055, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.3302, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6278 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 35, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9038, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Everton" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.052, "goals": 0.0471, "goal_rate": 0.0471, "shots_on_target": 0.178, "total_shots": 0.8058, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.3302, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6278 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assists": 0.049, "assist_rate": 0.049, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goals": 0.0462, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.1747, "total_shots": 0.7908, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6161, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "skill_edge": -0.0047, "height_edge": -0.008, "attacker_skill": 0.6029, "defender_skill": 0.6134, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6134 } ], "xg_override": 0.051 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.3302, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8058, "after": 0.7908 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6278, "after": 0.6161 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.051, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1747, "total_shots": 0.7908, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6161, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 0.8743, xG scale 1.6116, xA scale 2.0289, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1747, "total_shots": 0.7908, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6161, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9525, "creation_factor": 1.1552 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.409, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8743, "squad_xa_sum": 0.4514, "team_expected_assists": 0.9159, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6116, "xa_scale": 2.0289, "opponent_lambda": 1.372, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.051, "after": 0.0822 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0357, "after": 0.0724 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1747, "total_shots": 0.7908, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6161, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9525, "creation_factor": 1.1552, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3277, "fifa_rank": 1801.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1747, "total_shots": 0.7908, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6161, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0789, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9525, "creation_factor": 1.1552, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0789, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "scorer_weight": 0.0783, "squad_weight_total": 1.4546, "weight_share": 0.0538, "finishing_factor": 0.9525, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.402, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.402, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3344 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5187, "expected_assists": 0.0724, "assist_rate": 0.049, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0822, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1747, "total_shots": 0.7908, "rating": 6.7694, "minutes": 81.34, "total_pass": 26.6358, "accurate_pass": 21.6617, "duels_won": 6.9422, "total_long_balls": 0.942, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4611, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5828, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.329, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.0531, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.3328, "crosses_total": 0.0702, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 43.0497, "possession_lost": 9.1852, "dispossessed": 1.8738, "duels_lost": 6.4287, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 1.0114, "interceptions": 1.3554, "tackles_won": 2.495, "tackles": 3.7186, "clearances": 0.5414, "total_contest": 2.0643, "won_contest": 0.8812, "challenges_lost": 0.6443, "fouls": 1.7304, "fouls_drawn": 1.0116, "blocks": 0.7967, "big_chances_created": 0.0986, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.1346, "total_progression": 26.8969, "progressive_carries": 0.5631, "shots_off_target": 0.6161, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0547 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0158 } ], "others": -0.035, "total": 1.0297, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140618 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.05466 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028761 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.015866 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.015788 } ], "others_margin": -0.03508 } 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1.5771, "total_contest": 1.1515, "won_contest": 0.9451, "challenges_lost": 1.3579, "fouls": 0.5999, "fouls_drawn": 0.647, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1739, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0071, "ball_carries": 7.6999, "total_progression": 20.5335, "progressive_carries": 0.1577, "shots_off_target": 0.6948 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9200000, "quality_factor": 0.513, "boost_factor": 1.0009, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0333)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7257, "expected_assists": 0.072, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "expected_goals": 0.0763, "goals": 0.0585, "goal_rate": 0.0585, "shots_on_target": 0.3247, "total_shots": 0.9964, "rating": 6.819, "minutes": 84.09, "total_pass": 27.3993, "accurate_pass": 22.0489, "duels_won": 4.5067, "total_long_balls": 1.7304, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9908, 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2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Florentino Luís", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.8769, "skill_edge": -0.0397, "height_edge": -0.044, "attacker_skill": 0.5251, "defender_skill": 0.6134, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.6134 } ], "xg_override": 0.0669 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", 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10.3118, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.771, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7373, "crosses_total": 0.9433, "crosses_accurate": 0.4464, "touches": 38.6404, "possession_lost": 7.7594, "dispossessed": 0.2707, "duels_lost": 2.9916, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5567, "interceptions": 0.5478, "tackles_won": 1.14, "tackles": 1.7704, "clearances": 1.5771, "total_contest": 1.1515, "won_contest": 0.9451, "challenges_lost": 1.3579, "fouls": 0.6266, "fouls_drawn": 0.641, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1739, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0062, "ball_carries": 7.6999, "total_progression": 20.5335, "progressive_carries": 0.1577, "shots_off_target": 0.6093, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8769, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Florentino Luís", "opponent_faced": 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-0.0464 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": 0.0396 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0291 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.0288 } ], "others": -0.0045, "total": 7.0, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.046409 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": 0.039634 }, { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036419 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.029063 }, { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.028755 } ], "others_margin": -0.004326 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0157, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4418, "shots_faced": 13.7, "expected_saves": 3.35, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.4418 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4418, "shots_faced": 13.7, "expected_saves": 3.35, "high_pressure_saves": 1.15, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 0.8743, xG scale 1.6116, xA scale 2.0289, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4418, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.409, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8743, "squad_xa_sum": 0.4514, "team_expected_assists": 0.9159, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6116, "xa_scale": 2.0289, "opponent_lambda": 1.372, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.7, "after": 13.0 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.35, "after": 3.18 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.15, "after": 1.1 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4418, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1105, "fifa_rank": 972.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4418, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4546, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.402, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.402, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3344 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2981, "goals_prevented": 0.0078, "rating": 7.0, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 38.1086, "accurate_pass": 16.2906, "total_long_balls": 29.9086, "accurate_long_balls": 8.7325, "touches": 53.831, "clearances": 1.1762, "ball_recovery": 12.6429, "high_claims": 1.5179, "punches": 1.2643, "aerial_won": 0.6025, "sweeper_actions": 1.3402, "sweeper_accurate": 1.0645, "saves_inside_box": 2.9193, "possession_lost": 22.9593, "duels_won": 1.8952, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.3293, "won_contest": 0.3293, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7715, "total_own_half_passes": 12.7076, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.2492, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4418, "shots_faced": 13.0, "expected_saves": 3.18, "high_pressure_saves": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Emersonn, Julio Enciso", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.054, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.2772, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2772, "runner_up": "Regan Slater", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1739, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] }, "Oliver McBurnie": { "player_id": 367228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 188, "market_value": 7600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4212, "goal_rate": 0.247, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0769, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.7321, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 28, "possession_lost": 10.8977, "dispossessed": 1.0802, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assist_rate": 0.1039, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3202, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 19, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8917, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Leif Davis", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3437, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.074, "finishing_factor": 0.9544, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363896, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.0141, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363885, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363876, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Hull City", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Hull City", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0885, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363868, "match_date": "2026-09-19", "home_team": "Newcastle United", 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4843 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": 0.01 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0476, "total": 0.2902, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.847925 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.041378 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.033972 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": 0.029196 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.025454 } ], "others_margin": -0.151779 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.390846610069275, "model_output": 1.3908, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2813 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0779 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0603 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0513 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0459 } ], "others": 0.1346, "total": 1.3908, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.09819 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.066007 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.050688 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.043294 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.03726 } ], "others_margin": 0.101793 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.8899532556533813, "model_output": 0.89, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7875 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": 0.0598, "total": 0.89, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.850978 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.224329 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.041731 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040614 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040254 } ], "others_margin": 0.069484 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17026589810848236, "model_output": 0.1703, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1794 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0655 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0503, "total": 0.1703, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.179405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065482 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013534 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008662 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.007569 } ], "others_margin": -0.0503 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.67734956741333, "model_output": 6.6773, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.6774, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.047121 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016521 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010779 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009418 } ], "others_margin": -0.024997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3843, "tackles": 0.5165, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "clearances": 1.4064, "aerial_won": 0.8999, "total_shots": 0.1722, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2697, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0126)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3794, "tackles": 0.5165, "tackles_won": 0.2897, "clearances": 1.4064, "aerial_won": 0.8999, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2654, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 23.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9581, "appearance_probability": 0.615 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 0.8743, xG scale 1.6116, xA scale 2.0289, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.409, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8743, "squad_xa_sum": 0.4514, "team_expected_assists": 0.9159, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6116, "xa_scale": 2.0289, "opponent_lambda": 1.372, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.615 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.493701 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.085019 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.08403 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.070915 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.048875 } ], "others_margin": -0.143171 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.59054708480835, "model_output": 6.5905, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0596 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0226 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.2614, "total_shots": 0.5819, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.2796, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 14.47, "total_pass": 3.0445, "accurate_pass": 2.2765, "duels_won": 1.2439, "total_long_balls": 0.1684, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5721, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0022, "crosses_total": 0.4426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.275, "possession_lost": 2.6762, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 1.5302, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.2331, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.052, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.3762, "fouls_drawn": 1.0108, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7827, "total_progression": 13.2359, "progressive_carries": 0.5485, "shots_off_target": 0.3205 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.5 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.01, "projection_minutes": 14.47, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.591 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 0.8743, xG scale 1.6116, xA scale 2.0289, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.409, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8743, "squad_xa_sum": 0.4514, "team_expected_assists": 0.9159, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6116, "xa_scale": 2.0289, "opponent_lambda": 1.372, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0326 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4480, "fifa_rank": 4913.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0854, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "scorer_weight": 0.0795, "squad_weight_total": 1.4546, "weight_share": 0.0547, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.402, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.402, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3344 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, 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0.0317, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0261, "squad_weight_total": 1.054, "weight_share": 0.0247, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.2772, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2772, "runner_up": "Regan Slater", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1739, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ilyas Ansah": { "player_id": 1462742, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 197, "market_value": 16100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6188, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.9, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0725, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9535, 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1.3878, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7767 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0275 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0344, "total": 0.5108, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.820269 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.046084 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.023412 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": -0.022953 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.021792 } ], "others_margin": -0.065049 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.29019591212272644, "model_output": 0.2902, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7875 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1476 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0313 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0328 } ], "others": 0.0598, "total": 0.89, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.850978 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.224329 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.041731 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040614 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.040254 } ], "others_margin": 0.069484 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17026589810848236, "model_output": 0.1703, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1794 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0655 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0135 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0076 } ], "others": -0.0503, "total": 0.1703, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.179405 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.065482 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.013534 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.008662 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.007569 } ], "others_margin": -0.0503 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.67734956741333, "model_output": 6.6773, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0471 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0165 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0108 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.025, "total": 6.6774, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.047121 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.016521 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010779 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009418 } ], "others_margin": -0.024997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0112, quality 0.594)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3843, "tackles": 0.5165, "tackles_won": 0.2934, "clearances": 1.4064, "aerial_won": 0.8999, "total_shots": 0.1722, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2697, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1722 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16399999, "quality_factor": 0.5942, "boost_factor": 1.0112, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0126)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3794, "tackles": 0.5165, "tackles_won": 0.2897, "clearances": 1.4064, "aerial_won": 0.8999, "total_shots": 0.17, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 23.89, "total_pass": 7.7166, "accurate_pass": 6.6234, "duels_won": 0.8544, "total_long_balls": 0.2292, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.4918, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.2248, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1316, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.559, "possession_lost": 1.0932, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8568, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2697, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2663, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2697, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.8275, "total_progression": 3.0686, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1722 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0126, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2654, "prior_reliability": 0.0467, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Hull City" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 23.9 to 22.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.61)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.89, "projection_minutes": 23.89, "minutes_scale": 0.9581, "appearance_probability": 0.615 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 0.8743, xG scale 1.6116, xA scale 2.0289, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.409, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8743, "squad_xa_sum": 0.4514, "team_expected_assists": 0.9159, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6116, "xa_scale": 2.0289, "opponent_lambda": 1.372, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.615 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 66.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 7040, "fifa_rank": 10471.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 66.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.001, "squad_weight_total": 1.4546, "weight_share": 0.0007, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 0.615, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.402, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.402, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3344 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3635, "tackles": 0.4949, "tackles_won": 0.2776, "clearances": 1.3475, "aerial_won": 0.8622, "total_shots": 0.165, "rating": 6.6773, "minutes": 22.89, "total_pass": 7.3936, "accurate_pass": 6.3462, "duels_won": 0.8186, "total_long_balls": 0.2196, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4.3038, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.0898, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0424, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.117, "possession_lost": 1.0474, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8209, "aerial_lost": 0.5871, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.2584, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.2552, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.2584, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0059, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.751, "total_progression": 2.9402, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.165, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.615, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.89, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0059, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.9141, "fifa_overall": 66.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0059, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0054, "squad_weight_total": 1.054, "weight_share": 0.0051, "creation_factor": 0.9141, "appearance_weight": 0.615, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.2772, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2772, "runner_up": "Regan Slater", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1739, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] }, "Robinio Vaz": { "player_id": 1514800, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 47, "height": 185, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.618)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0645, "goals": 0.0511, "goal_rate": 0.0511, "shots_on_target": 0.2614, "total_shots": 0.5819, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "key_pass": 0.2796, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 14.47, "total_pass": 3.0445, "accurate_pass": 2.2765, "duels_won": 1.2439, "total_long_balls": 0.1684, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.5721, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0022, "crosses_total": 0.4426, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.275, "possession_lost": 2.6762, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 1.5302, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.2331, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.052, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.3762, "fouls_drawn": 1.0108, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.7827, "total_progression": 13.2359, "progressive_carries": 0.5485, "shots_off_target": 0.3205 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18700000, "quality_factor": 0.6181, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.5 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.01, "projection_minutes": 14.47, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.591 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goals": 0.0766, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0968, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0272, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.41 (squad xG sum 0.8743, xG scale 1.6116, xA scale 2.0289, team xA 0.92 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.409, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8743, "squad_xa_sum": 0.4514, "team_expected_assists": 0.9159, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6116, "xa_scale": 2.0289, "opponent_lambda": 1.372, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.591 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0272, "after": 0.0326 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4480, "fifa_rank": 4913.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0854, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0854, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "scorer_weight": 0.0795, "squad_weight_total": 1.4546, "weight_share": 0.0547, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Oliver McBurnie", "weight": 0.402, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.402, "runner_up": "Mohamed Belloumi", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3344 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.0766, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3921, "total_shots": 0.8729, "expected_assists": 0.0326, "key_pass": 0.4194, "rating": 6.5905, "minutes": 26.01, "total_pass": 4.5668, "accurate_pass": 3.4147, "duels_won": 1.8659, "total_long_balls": 0.2526, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.8581, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0033, "crosses_total": 0.6639, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.4125, "possession_lost": 4.0143, "dispossessed": 0.5194, "duels_lost": 2.2953, "aerial_lost": 0.1684, "total_contest": 0.3497, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.578, "challenges_lost": 0.2331, "fouls": 0.5643, "fouls_drawn": 1.5162, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.674, "total_progression": 19.8539, "progressive_carries": 0.8227, "shots_off_target": 0.4808, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.591, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.01, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0854, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0317, "finishing_factor": 0.8624, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0317, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0261, "squad_weight_total": 1.054, "weight_share": 0.0247, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.591, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Mohamed Belloumi", "weight": 0.2772, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2772, "runner_up": "Regan Slater", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1739, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Oliver McBurnie" ] } ] } } ] }, "Ilyas Ansah": { "player_id": 1462742, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 197, "market_value": 16100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0774, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0352, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.6188, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0589, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 2, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.586, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.9, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.86, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0725, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9535, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3787, "combined_rank_score": 1770.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3412.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.1, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ilyas Ansah", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryan Flamingo", "ranking": 3782 }, { "player_name": "Givairo Read", "ranking": 3783 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Vázquez", "ranking": 3784 }, { "player_name": "Çağlar Söyüncü", "ranking": 3785 }, { "player_name": "Victor Nelsson", "ranking": 3786 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kristjan Asllani", "ranking": 3788 }, { "player_name": "Chadi Riad", "ranking": 3789 }, { "player_name": "Adalberto Carrasquilla", "ranking": 3790 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Dibling", "ranking": 3791 }, { "player_name": "Jacob Widell Zetterström", "ranking": 3792 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 25.900530329166266, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.5863877422348301, "market_value_adjustment": 0.591, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€16,100,000) scaled to 25.9 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position F (quality 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.285, "goals": 0.18, "goal_rate": 0.18, "total_shots": 2.8, "shots_on_target": 1.5, "expected_assists": 0.103, "duels_won": 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(appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.082, "goals": 0.0518, "goal_rate": 0.0518, "total_shots": 0.8058, "shots_on_target": 0.4317, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "duels_won": 1.295, "aerial_won": 0.4892, "rating": 7.1, "minutes": 25.9, "total_pass": 8.9213, "accurate_pass": 6.619, "total_long_balls": 0.4029, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2014, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.8923, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.4534, "crosses_total": 0.4892, "crosses_accurate": 0.2302, "touches": 12.9503, "possession_lost": 2.6188, "dispossessed": 1.2, "duels_lost": 1.4101, "aerial_lost": 1.4, "total_contest": 1.7267, "won_contest": 0.9497, "ball_recovery": 0.6331, "challenges_lost": 1.4, "fouls": 0.4317, "fouls_drawn": 0.4029, "assists": 0.0259, "assist_rate": 0.0259, "shots_off_target": 0.2878, "key_pass": 0.2878, "interceptions": 0.1151, "tackles_won": 0.1727, "tackles": 0.2302, "clearances": 0.1439, "blocks": 0.0863, "big_chances_created": 0.0288, "big_chances_missed": 0.0489, "xgot": 0.0624, 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Rigg", "ranking": 3744 }, { "player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 3745 }, { "player_name": "Gift Links", "ranking": 3746 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.5, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], 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0.1927, "sweeper_actions": 0.2667, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2667, "saves_inside_box": 1.7673, "possession_lost": 17.9159, "duels_won": 0.1927, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.548, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.603 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:28:35.350989+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 201, "rows": 7385 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-23", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-19", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 7.0 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.2667, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.2457, "goodHighClaim": 1.0, "save_contribution": 2.7552, "possessionLostCtrl": 17.9159, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.2667 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.905308961868286, "model_output": 2.9053, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9271, "items": [ { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0151 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": 0.0131 }, { "name": "accuratePass", 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-0.0155 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0098 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0089, "total": -0.0683, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.024259 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.015522 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.01217 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.009757 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.008084 } ], "others_margin": 0.008802 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.911774635314941, "model_output": 6.9118, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0298 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0246 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0203 }, { "name": "punches", "contribution": -0.0194 } ], "others": 0.0086, "total": 6.9118, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.041657 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.029833 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.024612 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.020297 }, { "name": "punches", "margin": -0.019391 } ], "others_margin": 0.00859 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9887, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8725, "goals_prevented": -0.0676, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.277, "accurate_pass": 19.5635, "total_long_balls": 25.7249, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0114, "touches": 46.0371, "clearances": 1.443, "ball_recovery": 9.3157, "high_claims": 0.9887, "punches": 0.9155, "aerial_won": 0.1905, "sweeper_actions": 0.2637, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2637, "saves_inside_box": 1.7473, "possession_lost": 17.7135, "duels_won": 0.1905, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4606 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9887, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8725, "goals_prevented": -0.0676, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.277, "accurate_pass": 19.5635, "total_long_balls": 25.7249, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0114, "touches": 46.0371, "clearances": 1.443, "ball_recovery": 9.3157, "high_claims": 0.9887, "punches": 0.9155, "aerial_won": 0.1905, "sweeper_actions": 0.2637, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2637, "saves_inside_box": 1.7473, "possession_lost": 17.7135, "duels_won": 0.1905, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4606 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8725, "goals_prevented": -0.0676, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.277, "accurate_pass": 19.5635, "total_long_balls": 25.7249, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0114, "touches": 46.0371, "clearances": 1.443, "ball_recovery": 9.3157, "high_claims": 0.9887, "punches": 0.9155, "aerial_won": 0.1905, "sweeper_actions": 0.2637, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2637, "saves_inside_box": 1.7473, "possession_lost": 17.7135, "duels_won": 0.1905, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4606, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.398, "shots_faced": 13.3, "expected_saves": 3.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.12, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.398 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8725, "goals_prevented": -0.0676, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.277, "accurate_pass": 19.5635, "total_long_balls": 25.7249, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0114, "touches": 46.0371, "clearances": 1.443, "ball_recovery": 9.3157, "high_claims": 0.9887, "punches": 0.9155, "aerial_won": 0.1905, "sweeper_actions": 0.2637, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2637, "saves_inside_box": 1.7473, "possession_lost": 17.7135, "duels_won": 0.1905, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4606, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.398, "shots_faced": 13.3, "expected_saves": 3.26, "high_pressure_saves": 1.12, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2999, xG scale 1.0555, xA scale 1.3513, team xA 0.89 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8725, "goals_prevented": -0.0676, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.277, "accurate_pass": 19.5635, "total_long_balls": 25.7249, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0114, "touches": 46.0371, "clearances": 1.443, "ball_recovery": 9.3157, "high_claims": 0.9887, "punches": 0.9155, "aerial_won": 0.1905, "sweeper_actions": 0.2637, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2637, "saves_inside_box": 1.7473, "possession_lost": 17.7135, "duels_won": 0.1905, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4606, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.398, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 13.3, "after": 13.4 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.26, "after": 3.28 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.12, "after": 1.13 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8725, "goals_prevented": -0.0676, "rating": 6.9118, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 37.277, "accurate_pass": 19.5635, "total_long_balls": 25.7249, "accurate_long_balls": 8.0114, "touches": 46.0371, "clearances": 1.443, "ball_recovery": 9.3157, "high_claims": 0.9887, "punches": 0.9155, "aerial_won": 0.1905, "sweeper_actions": 0.2637, "sweeper_accurate": 0.2637, "saves_inside_box": 1.7473, "possession_lost": 17.7135, "duels_won": 0.1905, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 15.3723, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.4606, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.398, "shots_faced": 13.4, "expected_saves": 3.28, "high_pressure_saves": 1.13, "opponent_faced": "Oliver McBurnie, Mohamed Belloumi", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 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"importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1162 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0527 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0107 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0097 } ], "others": 0.0164, "total": 0.4709, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.116234 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.05272 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.017453 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.010666 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009723 } ], "others_margin": 0.016478 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.844817638397217, "model_output": 6.8448, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0197 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0154 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.009 } ], "others": 0.0029, "total": 6.8448, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.030557 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "margin": 0.019711 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.015419 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.008986 } ], "others_margin": 0.002896 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0157, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2246, "tackles": 1.6904, "tackles_won": 1.109, "clearances": 5.9554, "aerial_won": 2.6739, "total_shots": 0.4783, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2254, "accurate_pass": 36.6942, "duels_won": 5.8994, "total_long_balls": 6.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7118, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0978, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5965, "crosses_total": 0.8543, "crosses_accurate": 0.5567, "touches": 65.5375, "possession_lost": 11.6414, "dispossessed": 0.2185, "duels_lost": 3.6202, "aerial_lost": 2.0659, "total_contest": 0.6729, "won_contest": 0.4159, "ball_recovery": 3.9226, "challenges_lost": 0.4402, "fouls": 0.7176, "fouls_drawn": 0.9754, "blocks": 0.9569, "goals": 0.1513, "goal_rate": 0.1513, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "shots_on_target": 0.1513, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1366, "ball_carries": 12.6068, "total_progression": 61.7915, "progressive_carries": 0.9172, "key_pass": 0.5908, "shots_off_target": 0.327 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.0157, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0333)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2005, "tackles": 1.6904, "tackles_won": 1.0887, "clearances": 5.9554, "aerial_won": 2.6739, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2254, "accurate_pass": 36.6942, "duels_won": 5.8994, "total_long_balls": 6.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7118, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0978, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5965, "crosses_total": 0.8592, "crosses_accurate": 0.5567, "touches": 65.5375, "possession_lost": 11.6414, "dispossessed": 0.2185, "duels_lost": 3.6202, "aerial_lost": 2.0659, "total_contest": 0.6729, "won_contest": 0.4159, "ball_recovery": 3.9226, "challenges_lost": 0.4402, "fouls": 0.7437, "fouls_drawn": 0.9762, "blocks": 0.9569, "goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1463, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "shots_on_target": 0.1463, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1366, "ball_carries": 12.6068, "total_progression": 61.7915, "progressive_carries": 0.9172, "key_pass": 0.5908, "shots_off_target": 0.327 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0333, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7176, "after": 0.7437 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.2246, "after": 1.2005 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.109, "after": 1.0887 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2005, "tackles": 1.6904, "tackles_won": 1.0887, "clearances": 5.9554, "aerial_won": 2.6739, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2254, "accurate_pass": 36.6942, "duels_won": 5.8994, "total_long_balls": 6.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7118, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0978, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5965, "crosses_total": 0.8592, "crosses_accurate": 0.5567, "touches": 65.5375, "possession_lost": 11.6414, "dispossessed": 0.2185, "duels_lost": 3.6202, "aerial_lost": 2.0659, "total_contest": 0.6729, "won_contest": 0.4159, "ball_recovery": 3.9226, "challenges_lost": 0.4402, "fouls": 0.7437, "fouls_drawn": 0.9762, "blocks": 0.9569, "goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1463, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "shots_on_target": 0.1463, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1366, "ball_carries": 12.6068, "total_progression": 61.7915, "progressive_carries": 0.9172, "key_pass": 0.5908, "shots_off_target": 0.327 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2005, "tackles": 1.6904, "tackles_won": 1.0887, "clearances": 5.9554, "aerial_won": 2.6739, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2254, "accurate_pass": 36.6942, "duels_won": 5.8994, "total_long_balls": 6.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7118, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0978, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5965, "crosses_total": 0.8592, "crosses_accurate": 0.5567, "touches": 65.5375, "possession_lost": 11.6414, "dispossessed": 0.2185, "duels_lost": 3.6202, "aerial_lost": 2.0659, "total_contest": 0.6729, "won_contest": 0.4159, "ball_recovery": 3.9226, "challenges_lost": 0.4402, "fouls": 0.7437, "fouls_drawn": 0.9762, "blocks": 0.9569, "goals": 0.1463, "goal_rate": 0.1463, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "shots_on_target": 0.1463, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1366, "ball_carries": 12.6068, "total_progression": 61.7915, "progressive_carries": 0.9172, "key_pass": 0.5908, "shots_off_target": 0.327, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73, "opponent_faced": "Ryan Giles", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ryan Giles", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2005, "tackles": 1.6904, "tackles_won": 1.0887, "clearances": 5.9554, "aerial_won": 2.6739, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2254, "accurate_pass": 36.6942, "duels_won": 5.8994, "total_long_balls": 6.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7118, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0978, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5965, "crosses_total": 0.8592, "crosses_accurate": 0.5567, "touches": 65.5375, "possession_lost": 11.6414, "dispossessed": 0.2185, "duels_lost": 3.6202, "aerial_lost": 2.0659, "total_contest": 0.6729, "won_contest": 0.4159, "ball_recovery": 3.9226, "challenges_lost": 0.4402, "fouls": 0.7437, "fouls_drawn": 0.9762, "blocks": 0.9569, "goal_rate": 0.1463, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.041, "expected_assists": 0.0305, "shots_on_target": 0.1463, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1366, "ball_carries": 12.6068, "total_progression": 61.7915, "progressive_carries": 0.9172, "key_pass": 0.5908, "shots_off_target": 0.327, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73, "opponent_faced": "Ryan Giles", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2999, xG scale 1.0555, xA scale 1.3513, team xA 0.89 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2005, "tackles": 1.6904, "tackles_won": 1.0887, "clearances": 5.9554, "aerial_won": 2.6739, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2254, "accurate_pass": 36.6942, "duels_won": 5.8994, "total_long_balls": 6.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7118, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0978, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5965, "crosses_total": 0.8592, "crosses_accurate": 0.5567, "touches": 65.5375, "possession_lost": 11.6414, "dispossessed": 0.2185, "duels_lost": 3.6202, "aerial_lost": 2.0659, "total_contest": 0.6729, "won_contest": 0.4159, "ball_recovery": 3.9226, "challenges_lost": 0.4402, "fouls": 0.7437, "fouls_drawn": 0.9762, "blocks": 0.9569, "goal_rate": 0.1463, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "expected_assists": 0.0412, "shots_on_target": 0.1463, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1442, "ball_carries": 12.6068, "total_progression": 61.7915, "progressive_carries": 0.9172, "key_pass": 0.5908, "shots_off_target": 0.327, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73, "opponent_faced": "Ryan Giles", "pressing_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "matchup_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0305, "after": 0.0412 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2005, "tackles": 1.6904, "tackles_won": 1.0887, "clearances": 5.9554, "aerial_won": 2.6739, "total_shots": 0.479, "rating": 6.8448, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 46.2254, "accurate_pass": 36.6942, "duels_won": 5.8994, "total_long_balls": 6.2933, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7118, "total_own_half_passes": 24.1303, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.0978, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.0952, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5965, "crosses_total": 0.8592, "crosses_accurate": 0.5567, "touches": 65.5375, "possession_lost": 11.6414, "dispossessed": 0.2185, "duels_lost": 3.6202, "aerial_lost": 2.0659, "total_contest": 0.6729, "won_contest": 0.4159, "ball_recovery": 3.9226, "challenges_lost": 0.4402, "fouls": 0.7437, "fouls_drawn": 0.9762, "blocks": 0.9569, "goal_rate": 0.1463, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0433, "expected_assists": 0.0412, 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6.820035934448242, "model_output": 6.82, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0157 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0144 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": -0.0043, "total": 6.82, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.0294 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.015744 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.014378 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009717 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 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{ "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0574 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0294 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0132 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0125 } ], "others": -0.018, "total": 0.5856, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.057377 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.036018 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.029423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.013203 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.012496 } ], "others_margin": -0.01805 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.811188697814941, "model_output": 6.8112, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { 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"volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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36, "role_matches": 28, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.585)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assists": 0.0556, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "expected_goals": 0.035, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 15500000, "quality_factor": 0.5846, "boost_factor": 1.0029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assists": 0.0556, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "expected_goals": 0.035, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assists": 0.0556, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "expected_goals": 0.035, "goals": 0.0432, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam, Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam, Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.035, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0058, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam, Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2999, xG scale 1.0555, xA scale 1.3513, team xA 0.89 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0061, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam, Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0965, "creation_factor": 1.218 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0367, "after": 0.0496 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 6 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0061, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam, Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0965, "creation_factor": 1.218, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1822, "fifa_rank": 725.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0061, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam, Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0362, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0965, "creation_factor": 1.218, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0362, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "scorer_weight": 0.0405, "squad_weight_total": 1.5041, "weight_share": 0.0269, "finishing_factor": 1.0965, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Emersonn", "weight": 0.3645, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3645, "runner_up": "Julio Enciso", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2437 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5651, "expected_assists": 0.0496, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.0432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1466, "total_shots": 0.5403, "rating": 6.8473, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 38.0057, "accurate_pass": 32.4247, "duels_won": 4.0307, "total_long_balls": 2.3356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.516, "total_own_half_passes": 17.2948, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.2236, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.711, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.201, "crosses_total": 0.4033, "crosses_accurate": 0.118, "touches": 50.6771, "possession_lost": 7.7057, "dispossessed": 0.5856, "duels_lost": 4.216, "aerial_won": 0.9312, "aerial_lost": 0.8459, "interceptions": 1.6603, "tackles_won": 1.7846, "tackles": 2.8406, "clearances": 1.9179, "total_contest": 0.6333, "won_contest": 0.2002, "challenges_lost": 1.116, "fouls": 1.3286, "fouls_drawn": 0.0586, "blocks": 0.3345, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0107, "xgot": 0.0061, "ball_carries": 10.0822, "total_progression": 24.3088, "progressive_carries": 0.5828, "shots_off_target": 0.3937, "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam, Regan Slater", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0362, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0484, "finishing_factor": 1.0965, "creation_factor": 1.218, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0556, "provider_weight": 0.0604, "squad_weight_total": 1.011, "weight_share": 0.0598, "creation_factor": 1.218, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.2056, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2056, "runner_up": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1721, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Emersonn" ] } ] } } ] }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "player_id": 822600, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 177, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 61, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 31, "accurate_own_half_passes": 28, "total_opp_half_passes": 36, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 33, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 82, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 23, "total_progression": 61, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0329, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tim Iroegbunam", "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0384, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0775, "finishing_factor": 1.1114, "creation_factor": 1.0082, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363897, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Ipswich Town", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0752, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 79, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363887, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Ipswich Town", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ipswich Town", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0226, quality 0.686)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8093, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "assists": 0.0609, "assist_rate": 0.0609, "expected_goals": 0.0359, "goals": 0.0455, "goal_rate": 0.0455, "shots_on_target": 0.1426, "total_shots": 0.4932, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7094, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1252, "tackles_won": 1.6353, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, 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"total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1538, "tackles_won": 1.6438, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.782, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 1.0623, "blocks": 0.3432, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.9625, "total_progression": 61.2318, "progressive_carries": 0.9673, "shots_off_target": 0.3505 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0054, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.96, "prior_reliability": 0.02, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1252, "after": 1.1538 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9162, "after": 0.9286 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0507, "after": 1.0623 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.6353, "after": 1.6438 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8093, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "assists": 0.0606, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "expected_goals": 0.0359, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.1418, "total_shots": 0.4923, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1538, "tackles_won": 1.6438, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.782, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 1.0623, "blocks": 0.3432, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.9625, "total_progression": 61.2318, "progressive_carries": 0.9673, "shots_off_target": 0.3505 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8093, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "assists": 0.0606, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goals": 0.0468, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "shots_on_target": 0.1465, "total_shots": 0.5085, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1538, "tackles_won": 1.6438, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.782, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 1.0623, "blocks": 0.3432, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.9625, "total_progression": 61.2318, "progressive_carries": 0.9673, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0329, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tim Iroegbunam", "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0329, "skill_edge": 0.0424, "height_edge": -0.02, "attacker_skill": 0.6971, "defender_skill": 0.6029, "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.95, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Tim Iroegbunam", "market_value": 15500000, "role": "CM", "price_index": 0.9, "adjusted_quality": 0.6029 } ], "xg_override": 0.0371 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.0, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4923, "after": 0.5085 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.3505, "after": 0.362 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8093, "expected_assists": 0.0597, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0371, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1465, "total_shots": 0.5085, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1538, "tackles_won": 1.6438, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.782, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 1.0623, "blocks": 0.3432, "big_chances_created": 0.0, 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"assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1465, "total_shots": 0.5085, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1538, "tackles_won": 1.6438, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.782, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 1.0623, "blocks": 0.3432, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.9625, "total_progression": 61.2318, "progressive_carries": 0.9673, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0329, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tim Iroegbunam", "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1114, "creation_factor": 1.0082 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0597, "after": 0.0807 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 2 by projected rating, fifa_overall 83.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8093, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1465, "total_shots": 0.5085, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1538, "tackles_won": 1.6438, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.782, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 1.0623, "blocks": 0.3432, 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ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 83.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8093, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1465, "total_shots": 0.5085, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, "total_opp_half_passes": 35.6333, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 32.8576, "crosses_total": 0.7056, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 82.1423, "possession_lost": 10.4837, "dispossessed": 0.7507, "duels_lost": 3.3926, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 1.1538, "tackles_won": 1.6438, "tackles": 3.0063, "clearances": 1.1874, "total_contest": 0.9437, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.782, "fouls": 0.9286, "fouls_drawn": 1.0623, "blocks": 0.3432, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22.9625, "total_progression": 61.2318, "progressive_carries": 0.9673, "shots_off_target": 0.362, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0329, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tim Iroegbunam", "opponent_faced": "Tim Iroegbunam", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0384, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1114, "creation_factor": 1.0082, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0384, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "scorer_weight": 0.0436, "squad_weight_total": 1.5041, "weight_share": 0.029, "finishing_factor": 1.1114, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Emersonn", "weight": 0.3645, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3645, "runner_up": "Julio Enciso", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2437 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8093, "expected_assists": 0.0807, "assist_rate": 0.0606, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0468, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1465, "total_shots": 0.5085, "rating": 6.9721, "minutes": 86.4, "total_pass": 66.9182, "accurate_pass": 60.7301, "duels_won": 4.057, "total_long_balls": 2.8641, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5306, "total_own_half_passes": 31.285, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.8726, 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1898 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0751 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0453 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0341 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0333 } ], "others": -0.0066, "total": 0.8465, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.241783 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.088877 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.054564 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.040721 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.039799 } ], "others_margin": -0.00776 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.862517833709717, "model_output": 6.8625, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0244 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0153 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0148 } ], "others": -0.0534, "total": 6.8625, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051142 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.03682 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.024445 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015313 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.014765 } ], "others_margin": -0.053471 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0204, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goals": 0.1185, "goal_rate": 0.1185, "shots_on_target": 0.3899, "total_shots": 1.3562, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.3969, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6938, "fouls_drawn": 1.0154, "assists": 0.1283, "assist_rate": 0.1283, "interceptions": 0.8553, "tackles_won": 0.8257, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.007, "offsides": 0.374, "ball_carries": 14.1394, "total_progression": 92.498, "progressive_carries": 3.3119, "shots_off_target": 0.9663 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0204, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0289)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.3786, "total_shots": 1.317, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.4172, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6743, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assists": 0.1393, "assist_rate": 0.1393, "interceptions": 0.8453, "tackles_won": 0.8461, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.007, "offsides": 0.3779, "ball_carries": 14.1394, "total_progression": 92.498, "progressive_carries": 3.3119, "shots_off_target": 0.9663 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0289, "history_matches": 7, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.816, "prior_reliability": 0.1067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3562, "after": 1.317 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.8257, "after": 0.8461 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 4.3969, "after": 4.4172 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6938, "after": 1.6743 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0154, "after": 1.0303 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3899, "after": 0.3786 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1283, "after": 0.1393 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.8553, "after": 0.8453 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goals": 0.1151, "goal_rate": 0.1151, "shots_on_target": 0.3786, "total_shots": 1.3449, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.4172, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6743, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assists": 0.1393, "assist_rate": 0.1393, "interceptions": 0.8453, "tackles_won": 0.8461, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.007, "offsides": 0.3779, "ball_carries": 14.1394, "total_progression": 92.498, "progressive_carries": 3.3119, "shots_off_target": 0.9663 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1266, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "shots_on_target": 0.4164, "total_shots": 1.4793, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.4172, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6743, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assists": 0.1393, "assist_rate": 0.1393, "interceptions": 0.8453, "tackles_won": 0.8461, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0077, "offsides": 0.3779, "ball_carries": 14.1394, "total_progression": 92.498, "progressive_carries": 3.3119, "shots_off_target": 1.0628, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "skill_edge": 0.104, "height_edge": -0.036, "attacker_skill": 0.6685, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "market_value": 930000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "John Egan", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.1014 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.3449, "after": 1.4793 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.9663, "after": 1.0628 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.3786, "after": 0.4164 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1151, "after": 0.1266 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0922, "after": 0.1014 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4164, "total_shots": 1.4793, "expected_assists": 0.1027, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.4172, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6743, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assist_rate": 0.1393, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8453, "tackles_won": 0.8461, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0077, "offsides": 0.3779, "ball_carries": 14.1394, "total_progression": 92.498, "progressive_carries": 3.3119, "shots_off_target": 1.0628, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2999, xG scale 1.0555, xA scale 1.3513, team xA 0.89 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4164, "total_shots": 1.4793, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.4172, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6743, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assist_rate": 0.1393, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8453, "tackles_won": 0.8461, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0081, "offsides": 0.3779, "ball_carries": 14.1394, "total_progression": 92.498, "progressive_carries": 3.3119, "shots_off_target": 1.0628, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1664, "creation_factor": 1.2397 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1014, "after": 0.107 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1027, "after": 0.1388 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 5 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4164, "total_shots": 1.4793, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.4172, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6743, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assist_rate": 0.1393, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8453, "tackles_won": 0.8461, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4164, "total_shots": 1.4793, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.1104, "crosses_total": 4.4172, "crosses_accurate": 1.4913, "touches": 36.7831, "possession_lost": 14.7747, "dispossessed": 1.4761, "duels_lost": 6.5576, "aerial_lost": 0.6045, "total_contest": 4.2855, "won_contest": 1.8133, "ball_recovery": 1.9726, "challenges_lost": 0.5199, "fouls": 1.6743, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assist_rate": 0.1393, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.8453, "tackles_won": 0.8461, "tackles": 1.4671, "clearances": 0.4567, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.6742, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0081, "offsides": 0.3779, "ball_carries": 14.1394, "total_progression": 92.498, "progressive_carries": 3.3119, "shots_off_target": 1.0628, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1015, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1664, "creation_factor": 1.2397, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1015, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "scorer_weight": 0.1248, "squad_weight_total": 1.5041, "weight_share": 0.083, "finishing_factor": 1.1664, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 5, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Emersonn", "weight": 0.3645, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3645, "runner_up": "Julio Enciso", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2437 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.107, "goal_rate": 0.1266, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4164, "total_shots": 1.4793, "expected_assists": 0.1388, "key_pass": 0.8638, "rating": 6.8625, "minutes": 73.44, "total_pass": 15.9046, "accurate_pass": 11.1788, "duels_won": 4.7751, "total_long_balls": 1.681, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6731, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.3488, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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2.349515199661255, "model_output": 2.3495, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7918 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1747 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0747 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0671 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0652 } ], "others": 0.1943, "total": 2.3495, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.791829 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.174652 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.074688 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.067114 }, { 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0.1777, "total_contest": 4.9142, "won_contest": 2.2085, "challenges_lost": 0.7262, "fouls": 0.5362, "fouls_drawn": 1.5845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3296, "big_chances_missed": 0.0876, "xgot": 0.3137, "ball_carries": 15.8522, "total_progression": 92.4865, "progressive_carries": 4.1354, "shots_off_target": 1.5863 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0228, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0300)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1269, "assists": 0.1622, "assist_rate": 0.1622, "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goals": 0.2193, "goal_rate": 0.2193, "shots_on_target": 0.8076, "total_shots": 2.4234, "rating": 6.9482, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 23.962, "accurate_pass": 18.848, "duels_won": 4.772, "total_long_balls": 1.1435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5452, 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1.0427, "after": 1.0114 }, { "stat": "goalAssist", "before": 0.1359, "after": 0.1622 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4031, "after": 2.4234 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.5373, "after": 0.5515 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5845, "after": 1.5977 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.434, "after": 0.421 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8168, "after": 0.8076 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2261, "after": 0.2193 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.0158, "expected_assists": 0.1269, "assists": 0.1622, "assist_rate": 0.1622, "expected_goals": 0.1847, "goals": 0.2193, "goal_rate": 0.2193, "shots_on_target": 0.8076, "total_shots": 2.4234, "rating": 6.9482, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 23.962, "accurate_pass": 18.848, "duels_won": 4.772, "total_long_balls": 1.1435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5452, "total_own_half_passes": 8.1727, 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0.1622, "expected_goals": 0.2008, "goals": 0.2384, "goal_rate": 0.2384, "shots_on_target": 0.8778, "total_shots": 2.634, "rating": 6.9482, "minutes": 81.97, "total_pass": 23.962, "accurate_pass": 18.848, "duels_won": 4.772, "total_long_balls": 1.1435, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5452, "total_own_half_passes": 8.1727, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.0146, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.7893, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.8334, "crosses_total": 1.0114, "crosses_accurate": 0.3316, "touches": 43.0228, "possession_lost": 12.8608, "dispossessed": 1.9093, "duels_lost": 6.4589, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.5816, "interceptions": 0.421, "tackles_won": 0.5515, "tackles": 0.8689, "clearances": 0.1777, "total_contest": 4.9142, "won_contest": 2.2085, "challenges_lost": 0.7262, "fouls": 0.5353, "fouls_drawn": 1.5977, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.3296, "big_chances_missed": 0.0952, "xgot": 0.341, "ball_carries": 15.8522, "total_progression": 92.4865, "progressive_carries": 4.1354, 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"contribution": 0.2023 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0981 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.083 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0355 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0329 } ], "others": -0.0587, "total": 0.659, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.25586 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.1159 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.109807 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.048471 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044826 } ], "others_margin": -0.085348 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.764875411987305, "model_output": 6.7649, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0190, quality 0.619)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1272, "goals": 0.1469, "goal_rate": 0.1469, "shots_on_target": 0.5517, "total_shots": 1.5343, "expected_assists": 0.0555, "key_pass": 0.6715, "rating": 6.7649, "minutes": 70.96, "total_pass": 13.25, "accurate_pass": 10.831, "duels_won": 3.2033, "total_long_balls": 0.231, "accurate_long_balls": 0.231, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7535, "crosses_total": 1.1327, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 28.7383, "possession_lost": 8.4928, "dispossessed": 1.0323, "duels_lost": 4.2127, "aerial_lost": 0.74, "total_contest": 2.4884, "won_contest": 1.1016, "ball_recovery": 1.4117, "challenges_lost": 0.231, "fouls": 0.8226, "fouls_drawn": 0.8706, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2718, "tackles_won": 0.2719, 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0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1131, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1365, "after": 0.1441 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0555, "after": 0.075 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.189 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.064 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0347 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0276 } ], "others": -0.0755, "total": 0.6314, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.240871 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.075273 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.062676 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.046181 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.038265 } ], "others_margin": -0.112866 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.735606670379639, "model_output": 6.7356, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0497 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0195 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": -0.0291, "total": 6.7356, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019548 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016119 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.011591 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": -0.011346 } ], "others_margin": -0.029032 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 8, "role_matches": 8, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0189, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3003, "goals": 0.2978, "goal_rate": 0.2978, "shots_on_target": 0.7708, "total_shots": 2.0883, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.6433, "rating": 6.7356, "minutes": 70.04, "total_pass": 8.5816, "accurate_pass": 5.7188, "duels_won": 4.9052, "total_long_balls": 0.0793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9215, "crosses_total": 0.0673, "crosses_accurate": 0.0673, "touches": 22.8484, "possession_lost": 8.8145, "dispossessed": 0.9323, "duels_lost": 6.2658, "aerial_lost": 3.507, "total_contest": 1.2479, "won_contest": 0.5479, "ball_recovery": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.48, "fouls": 0.6465, "fouls_drawn": 1.8271, "assists": 0.1096, "assist_rate": 0.1096, "interceptions": 0.1518, "tackles_won": 0.2896, "tackles": 0.4414, "clearances": 0.6017, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.208, "big_chances_missed": 0.3636, "xgot": 0.1665, "offsides": 0.365, "ball_carries": 5.7699, "total_progression": 10.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.8374, "shots_off_target": 1.3174 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0189, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0200)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3003, "goals": 0.3048, "goal_rate": 0.3048, "shots_on_target": 0.7809, "total_shots": 2.0847, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.6433, "rating": 6.7356, "minutes": 70.04, "total_pass": 8.5816, "accurate_pass": 5.7188, "duels_won": 4.9052, "total_long_balls": 0.0793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9215, "crosses_total": 0.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.0673, "touches": 22.8484, "possession_lost": 8.8145, "dispossessed": 0.9323, "duels_lost": 6.2658, "aerial_lost": 3.507, "total_contest": 1.2479, "won_contest": 0.5479, "ball_recovery": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.48, "fouls": 0.6465, "fouls_drawn": 1.8165, "assists": 0.1074, "assist_rate": 0.1074, "interceptions": 0.1488, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4414, "clearances": 0.6017, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.208, "big_chances_missed": 0.3636, "xgot": 0.1665, "offsides": 0.3577, "ball_carries": 5.7699, "total_progression": 10.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.8374, "shots_off_target": 1.3174 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.02, "history_matches": 8, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.7782, "prior_reliability": 0.08, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.0673, "after": 0.0789 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.8271, "after": 1.8165 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7708, "after": 0.7809 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.365, "after": 0.3577 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.2896, "after": 0.2968 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2978, "after": 0.3048 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3003, "goals": 0.3048, "goal_rate": 0.3048, "shots_on_target": 0.7809, "total_shots": 2.0983, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.6433, "rating": 6.7356, "minutes": 70.04, "total_pass": 8.5816, "accurate_pass": 5.7188, "duels_won": 4.9052, "total_long_balls": 0.0793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9215, "crosses_total": 0.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.0673, "touches": 22.8484, "possession_lost": 8.8145, "dispossessed": 0.9323, "duels_lost": 6.2658, "aerial_lost": 3.507, "total_contest": 1.2479, "won_contest": 0.5479, "ball_recovery": 0.9203, 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"opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.292, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1352, "skill_edge": 0.104, "height_edge": -0.012, "attacker_skill": 0.6685, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "market_value": 930000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 }, { "player": "John Egan", "market_value": 1500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 } ], "xg_override": 0.3409 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.0983, "after": 2.382 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.3174, "after": 1.4955 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7809, "after": 0.8865 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3636, "after": 0.4128 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3048, "after": 0.346 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3003, "after": 0.3409 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1665, "after": 0.189 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3409, "goal_rate": 0.346, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8865, "total_shots": 2.382, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "key_pass": 0.6433, "rating": 6.7356, "minutes": 70.04, "total_pass": 8.5816, "accurate_pass": 5.7188, "duels_won": 4.9052, "total_long_balls": 0.0793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9215, "crosses_total": 0.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.0673, "touches": 22.8484, "possession_lost": 8.8145, "dispossessed": 0.9323, "duels_lost": 6.2658, "aerial_lost": 3.507, "total_contest": 1.2479, "won_contest": 0.5479, "ball_recovery": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.48, "fouls": 0.6465, "fouls_drawn": 1.8165, "assist_rate": 0.1074, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1488, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4414, "clearances": 0.6017, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.208, "big_chances_missed": 0.4128, "xgot": 0.189, "offsides": 0.3577, "ball_carries": 5.7699, "total_progression": 10.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.8374, "shots_off_target": 1.4955, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1352, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.292, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2999, xG scale 1.0555, xA scale 1.3513, team xA 0.89 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3598, "goal_rate": 0.346, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8865, "total_shots": 2.382, "expected_assists": 0.0651, "key_pass": 0.6433, "rating": 6.7356, "minutes": 70.04, "total_pass": 8.5816, "accurate_pass": 5.7188, "duels_won": 4.9052, "total_long_balls": 0.0793, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.2755, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.9215, "crosses_total": 0.0789, "crosses_accurate": 0.0673, "touches": 22.8484, "possession_lost": 8.8145, "dispossessed": 0.9323, "duels_lost": 6.2658, "aerial_lost": 3.507, "total_contest": 1.2479, "won_contest": 0.5479, "ball_recovery": 0.9203, "challenges_lost": 0.48, "fouls": 0.6465, "fouls_drawn": 1.8165, "assist_rate": 0.1074, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1488, "tackles_won": 0.2968, "tackles": 0.4414, "clearances": 0.6017, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.208, "big_chances_missed": 0.4128, "xgot": 0.1995, "offsides": 0.3577, "ball_carries": 5.7699, "total_progression": 10.5858, "progressive_carries": 0.8374, "shots_off_target": 1.4955, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1352, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.292, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "opponent_faced": "Semi Ajayi, John Egan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.013, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3409, "after": 0.3598 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0482, "after": 0.0651 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.275981 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.121568 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.04665 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.032889 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.031298 } ], "others_margin": -0.112727 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.836950778961182, "model_output": 6.837, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0326 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0304 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0123 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 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3.6926, "total_contest": 0.2695, "won_contest": 0.2695, "challenges_lost": 0.7277, "fouls": 0.5866, "fouls_drawn": 0.4986, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2695, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0987, "ball_carries": 11.7099, "total_progression": 44.9132, "progressive_carries": 1.3142, "shots_off_target": 0.4716 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0104, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 8, "history_shrink": 0.3846, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0050)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7012, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "assists": 0.0951, "assist_rate": 0.0951, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.0574, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.607, "rating": 6.837, "minutes": 88.67, "total_pass": 41.1131, "accurate_pass": 35.618, "duels_won": 2.7141, "total_long_balls": 4.8229, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2179, 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1.4958, "after": 1.4883 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.4403, "after": 1.4331 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.0236, "after": 1.0185 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7012, "expected_assists": 0.0568, "assists": 0.0951, "assist_rate": 0.0951, "expected_goals": 0.0423, "goals": 0.0574, "goal_rate": 0.0574, "shots_on_target": 0.1378, "total_shots": 0.6094, "rating": 6.837, "minutes": 88.67, "total_pass": 41.1131, "accurate_pass": 35.618, "duels_won": 2.7141, "total_long_balls": 4.8229, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2179, "total_own_half_passes": 24.6346, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22.8772, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.4785, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.7407, "crosses_total": 1.4883, "crosses_accurate": 0.2695, "touches": 58.8834, "possession_lost": 9.8617, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.6314, "aerial_won": 0.4986, "aerial_lost": 0.3171, "interceptions": 1.4331, 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"season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2677, "combined_rank_score": 935.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 1790.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0233, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kjell Scherpen", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Stanislav Shopov", "ranking": 2672 }, { "player_name": "Lim Hyung-jin", "ranking": 2673 }, { "player_name": "Eduardo Quaresma", "ranking": 2674 }, { "player_name": "Marco Friedl", "ranking": 2675 }, { "player_name": "Jeong Yong-hee", "ranking": 2676 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Keny Arroyo", "ranking": 2678 }, { "player_name": "Carles Gil", "ranking": 2679 }, { "player_name": "Petar Musa", "ranking": 2680 }, { "player_name": "Štěpán Chaloupek", "ranking": 2681 }, { "player_name": "Park Tae-yong", "ranking": 2682 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.52, "history_matches": 4, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], 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"total_long_balls": 17.0948, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8294, "touches": 45.8638, "clearances": 1.8143, "ball_recovery": 9.5662, "high_claims": 2.0464, "punches": 0.96, "aerial_won": 0.8544, "sweeper_actions": 1.0, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7191, "saves_inside_box": 1.6802, "possession_lost": 12.846, "duels_won": 1.0471, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1927, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9381, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.5717 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:28:35.350989+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 201, "rows": 7385 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.3138, "rating": 5.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2667, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.2267, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1927, "rating": 6.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 4.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7191, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": -0.0273, "goodHighClaim": 2.0464, "save_contribution": 3.0288, "possessionLostCtrl": 12.846, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.8073 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.8820788860321045, "model_output": 2.8821, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.0422 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0362 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0359 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9271, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1974 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.1013 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "contribution": 0.0298 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0222 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0209 } ], "others": 0.0226, "total": 2.8821, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.074005, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.069807 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.036448 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "margin": 0.010459 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.007774 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.007339 } ], "others_margin": 0.007842 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.08229939639568329, "model_output": -0.0823, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0432 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "goodHighClaim", "importance": 0.0388 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0371 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "importance": 0.0358 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0235, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0618 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0446 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0407 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "contribution": -0.0175 } ], "others": -0.0776, "total": -0.0823, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.061824 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.044628 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.040686 }, { "name": "inside_box_save_rate", "margin": -0.021568 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.017482 } ], "others_margin": -0.077605 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0233330726623535, "model_output": 7.0233, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0455 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "contribution": 0.0364 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": -0.0269, "total": 7.0233, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.045476 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.036406 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.018304 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.017564 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "margin": 0.014413 } ], "others_margin": -0.026843 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 4, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0058, quality 0.540)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8988, "goals_prevented": -0.0828, "rating": 7.0233, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.1757, "accurate_pass": 19.261, "total_long_balls": 17.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8632, "touches": 46.1298, "clearances": 1.8248, "ball_recovery": 9.6217, "high_claims": 2.0583, "punches": 0.9656, "aerial_won": 0.8594, "sweeper_actions": 1.0058, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7233, "saves_inside_box": 1.6899, "possession_lost": 12.9205, "duels_won": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1938, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.662 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 11500000, "quality_factor": 0.5399, "boost_factor": 1.0058, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 4, "history_shrink": 0.5556, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0481)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8202, "goals_prevented": -0.0828, "rating": 7.0233, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 31.1757, "accurate_pass": 19.261, "total_long_balls": 17.1939, "accurate_long_balls": 5.8632, "touches": 46.1298, "clearances": 1.8248, "ball_recovery": 9.6217, "high_claims": 2.0583, "punches": 0.9656, "aerial_won": 0.8594, "sweeper_actions": 1.0058, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7233, "saves_inside_box": 1.6899, "possession_lost": 12.9205, "duels_won": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1921, "total_own_half_passes": 18.0421, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.662 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0481, "history_matches": 4, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": 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"squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7804, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jacob Greaves", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abner Vinícius", "ranking": 3844 }, { "player_name": "Saša Kalajdžić", "ranking": 3845 }, { "player_name": "Matthis Abline", "ranking": 3846 }, { "player_name": "Ander Guevara", "ranking": 3847 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Pagis", "ranking": 3848 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martial Godo", "ranking": 3850 }, { "player_name": "Tomasz Kędziora", "ranking": 3851 }, { "player_name": "Kévin Danois", "ranking": 3852 }, { "player_name": "Gauthier Hein", "ranking": 3853 }, { "player_name": "Keito Nakamura", "ranking": 3854 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.582, "history_matches": 5, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.053459 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.046361 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": 0.038098 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": 0.032583 } ], "others_margin": -0.200826 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.6645538806915283, "model_output": 1.6646, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1094 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.1638 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0975 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0522 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0204 } ], "others": 0.0174, "total": 1.6646, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.957836 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.11756 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063904 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0326 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.012438 } ], "others_margin": 0.010453 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.6312677264213562, "model_output": 0.6313, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7737 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0306 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0309 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0096 } ], "others": -0.0215, "total": 0.6313, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.827663 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.049712 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.047764 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.028935 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.014791 } ], "others_margin": -0.033675 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.1118290051817894, "model_output": 0.1118, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2015 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0596 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.011 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0074 } ], "others": -0.0689, "total": 0.1118, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.201452 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.059636 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019876 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01102 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.007373 } ], "others_margin": -0.068896 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.780398368835449, "model_output": 6.7804, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0097 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0078 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0065 } ], "others": 0.0179, "total": 6.7804, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.01256 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": -0.011132 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009656 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007758 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.006549 } ], "others_margin": 0.017736 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 5, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0132, quality 0.593)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3343, "tackles": 0.5173, "tackles_won": 0.3046, "clearances": 1.6865, "aerial_won": 0.6396, "total_shots": 0.1133, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 44.7601, "accurate_pass": 39.8203, "duels_won": 4.2347, "total_long_balls": 3.3966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 29.7953, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.599, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9649, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2213, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.4724, "possession_lost": 5.3557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.27, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.8811, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.8568, "fouls_drawn": 1.0914, "blocks": 1.1765, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.006, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.2097, "total_progression": 27.5052, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4706, "shots_off_target": 0.1133 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16300000, "quality_factor": 0.5932, "boost_factor": 1.0132, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 5, "history_shrink": 0.5, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0433)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3198, "tackles": 0.5173, "tackles_won": 0.3044, "clearances": 1.6865, "aerial_won": 0.6396, "total_shots": 0.1084, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 44.7601, "accurate_pass": 39.8203, "duels_won": 4.2347, "total_long_balls": 3.3966, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8563, "total_own_half_passes": 29.7953, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27.599, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.9649, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2213, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 56.4724, "possession_lost": 5.3557, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2.27, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.8811, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.8283, "fouls_drawn": 1.0614, "blocks": 1.1765, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.006, "expected_assists": 0.0162, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 13.2097, "total_progression": 27.5052, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.4706, "shots_off_target": 0.1133 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0433, "history_matches": 5, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Ipswich Town" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0914, "after": 1.0614 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.8568, "after": 0.8283 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.3343, "after": 0.3198 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 14.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2521, "tackles": 0.4078, "tackles_won": 0.24, "clearances": 1.3294, "aerial_won": 0.5042, "total_shots": 0.0893, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 35.2833, "accurate_pass": 31.3894, "duels_won": 3.3381, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7556, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5158, "possession_lost": 4.2218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7894, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2711, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.6529, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.0893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.19, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 0.7883, "appearance_probability": 0.23 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2521, "tackles": 0.4078, "tackles_won": 0.24, "clearances": 1.3294, "aerial_won": 0.5042, "total_shots": 0.0893, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 35.2833, "accurate_pass": 31.3894, "duels_won": 3.3381, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7556, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5158, "possession_lost": 4.2218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7894, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2711, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.6529, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.0893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2521, "tackles": 0.4078, "tackles_won": 0.24, "clearances": 1.3294, "aerial_won": 0.5042, "total_shots": 0.0893, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 35.2833, "accurate_pass": 31.3894, "duels_won": 3.3381, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7556, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5158, "possession_lost": 4.2218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7894, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2711, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.6529, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.0893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.23, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 74.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2521, "tackles": 0.4078, "tackles_won": 0.24, "clearances": 1.3294, "aerial_won": 0.5042, "total_shots": 0.0893, "rating": 6.7804, "minutes": 14.19, "total_pass": 35.2833, "accurate_pass": 31.3894, "duels_won": 3.3381, "total_long_balls": 2.6775, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4633, "total_own_half_passes": 23.4869, "accurate_own_half_passes": 21.7556, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7965, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.6338, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 44.5158, "possession_lost": 4.2218, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7894, "aerial_lost": 1.3235, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 2.2711, "challenges_lost": 0.2322, "fouls": 0.6529, "fouls_drawn": 0.8367, "blocks": 0.9274, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0047, "expected_assists": 0.0128, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.4129, "total_progression": 21.6817, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.371, "shots_off_target": 0.0893, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.23, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.19, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3849, "fifa_rank": 2682.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 74.0 } } ] }, "Cédric Kipré": { "player_id": 886802, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 196, "market_value": 2700000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "expected_goals": 0.0024, "rating": 6.8, "minutes": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 0.935, "dispossessed": 0.4, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.006, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0068, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3451, "combined_rank_score": 1448.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2678.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cédric Kipré", 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"contribution": -0.0017 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0014 } ], "others": -0.0058, "total": 0.0187, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.395469, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.574015 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.43694 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.181808 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.062759 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.055715 } ], "others_margin": -0.273397 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.036562077701091766, "model_output": 0.0366, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0334 }, { "name": 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"importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1376 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0417 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0087 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0048 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.0864, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.5674 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.263164 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.164992 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.077061 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.045519 } ], "others_margin": -0.184086 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.29336392879486084, "model_output": 0.2934, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3008 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1964 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0371 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0297 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0289 } ], "others": -0.0954, "total": 0.2934, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.300792 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.196373 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.037134 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.029736 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.02889 } ], "others_margin": -0.095443 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.708827495574951, "model_output": 6.7088, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0856 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0252 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0183 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0156 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0139 } ], "others": -0.039, "total": 6.7088, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.085586 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.025193 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.018274 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.015571 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013947 } ], "others_margin": -0.038997 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_contest": 0.9333, "won_contest": 0.9333, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.4667, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.5647, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.0042, "total_progression": 1.2506, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2102 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14900000, "quality_factor": 0.5781, "boost_factor": 1.0157, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0495)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3469, "expected_assists": 0.0328, "assists": 0.0426, "assist_rate": 0.0426, "expected_goals": 0.019, "goals": 0.0353, "goal_rate": 0.0353, "shots_on_target": 0.0834, "total_shots": 0.2899, "rating": 6.7088, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 35.0554, "accurate_pass": 30.2788, "duels_won": 2.4157, "total_long_balls": 2.1138, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5648, 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0.9719 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.4667, "after": 0.4501 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.298, "after": 0.2899 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.32)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4113, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0505, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "shots_on_target": 0.0989, "total_shots": 0.3481, "rating": 6.7088, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.53, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.1857, "appearance_probability": 0.318 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4113, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assists": 0.0505, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "shots_on_target": 0.0989, "total_shots": 0.3481, "rating": 6.7088, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4113, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0989, "total_shots": 0.3481, "rating": 6.7088, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.977, "total_progression": 1.4829, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2492, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.318, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.318, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4113, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "assist_rate": 0.0505, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0225, "goal_rate": 0.0419, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0989, "total_shots": 0.3481, "rating": 6.7088, "minutes": 22.53, "total_pass": 41.5669, "accurate_pass": 35.9031, "duels_won": 2.8644, "total_long_balls": 2.5064, "accurate_long_balls": 1.8555, "total_own_half_passes": 17.8702, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.9171, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.6967, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.9859, "crosses_total": 1.1524, "crosses_accurate": 0.5534, "touches": 55.0753, "possession_lost": 8.7234, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4.1665, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5337, "tackles_won": 0.5337, "tackles": 1.7578, "clearances": 2.4087, "total_contest": 1.1067, "won_contest": 1.1067, "challenges_lost": 3.0471, "fouls": 0.5337, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 1.8553, 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"player_name": "Jack Clarke", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jhon Durán", "ranking": 3157 }, { "player_name": "Unai López", "ranking": 3158 }, { "player_name": "Clément Lenglet", "ranking": 3159 }, { "player_name": "Albion Rrahmani", "ranking": 3160 }, { "player_name": "Leon Bailey", "ranking": 3161 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vitor Reis", "ranking": 3163 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Fernández", "ranking": 3164 }, { "player_name": "Žan Vipotnik", "ranking": 3165 }, { "player_name": "Mykhailo Mudryk", "ranking": 3166 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.689, "history_matches": 7, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", 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"name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0024 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0022 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0016 } ], "others": 0.001, "total": 0.0476, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.298338 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.060609 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.053525 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.050879 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.035516 } ], "others_margin": 0.020076 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.44330769777297974, "model_output": 0.4433, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2486 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0199 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.4433, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.44355 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045746 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040757 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.035771 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030956 } ], "others_margin": 0.015286 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680866718292236, "model_output": 6.6809, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": 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"xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 7, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "shots_on_target": 0.1897, "total_shots": 0.6561, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "key_pass": 0.4508, "rating": 6.6809, "minutes": 21.77, "total_pass": 11.488, "accurate_pass": 8.4311, "duels_won": 0.4174, "total_long_balls": 0.7034, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3368, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.876, "crosses_total": 0.9907, "crosses_accurate": 0.1981, "touches": 16.1354, "possession_lost": 4.7233, "dispossessed": 0.6757, "duels_lost": 2.2665, "aerial_lost": 0.5485, "total_contest": 0.4724, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.5655, "challenges_lost": 0.4015, "fouls": 0.4426, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.1981, "assist_rate": 0.1981, "interceptions": 0.1684, "tackles_won": 0.1432, "tackles": 0.1432, "clearances": 0.1981, "blocks": 0.2331, "big_chances_created": 0.2375, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0897, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3208, "total_progression": 48.6084, "progressive_carries": 2.156, "shots_off_target": 0.4664 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.6616, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "key_pass": 0.4508, "rating": 6.6809, "minutes": 21.77, "total_pass": 11.488, "accurate_pass": 8.4311, "duels_won": 0.4174, "total_long_balls": 0.7034, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3368, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.876, "crosses_total": 0.9871, 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to 22.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0604, "goals": 0.059, "goal_rate": 0.059, "shots_on_target": 0.2015, "total_shots": 0.6911, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "key_pass": 0.4709, "rating": 6.6809, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 11.9999, "accurate_pass": 8.8068, "duels_won": 0.436, "total_long_balls": 0.7347, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3518, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1378, "crosses_total": 1.0311, "crosses_accurate": 0.2069, "touches": 16.8543, "possession_lost": 4.9338, "dispossessed": 0.6757, "duels_lost": 2.3675, "aerial_lost": 0.5485, "total_contest": 0.4934, "won_contest": 0.2865, "ball_recovery": 1.6353, "challenges_lost": 0.4015, "fouls": 0.4606, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.2062, "assist_rate": 0.2062, "interceptions": 0.1753, "tackles_won": 0.1496, "tackles": 0.1496, "clearances": 0.2069, "blocks": 0.2435, "big_chances_created": 0.2481, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0937, "offsides": 0.0, 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"key_pass": 0.4709, "rating": 6.6809, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 11.9999, "accurate_pass": 8.8068, "duels_won": 0.436, "total_long_balls": 0.7347, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3518, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1378, "crosses_total": 1.0311, "crosses_accurate": 0.2069, "touches": 16.8543, "possession_lost": 4.9338, "dispossessed": 0.6757, "duels_lost": 2.3675, "aerial_lost": 0.5485, "total_contest": 0.4934, "won_contest": 0.2865, "ball_recovery": 1.6353, "challenges_lost": 0.4015, "fouls": 0.4606, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.2062, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1753, "tackles_won": 0.1496, "tackles": 0.1496, "clearances": 0.2069, "blocks": 0.2435, "big_chances_created": 0.2481, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0937, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6024, "total_progression": 50.7742, "progressive_carries": 2.2521, "shots_off_target": 0.4872, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2999, xG scale 1.0555, xA scale 1.3513, team xA 0.89 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0469, "goal_rate": 0.059, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2015, "total_shots": 0.6911, "expected_assists": 0.0503, "key_pass": 0.4709, "rating": 6.6809, "minutes": 22.74, "total_pass": 11.9999, "accurate_pass": 8.8068, "duels_won": 0.436, "total_long_balls": 0.7347, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3518, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1378, "crosses_total": 1.0311, "crosses_accurate": 0.2069, "touches": 16.8543, "possession_lost": 4.9338, "dispossessed": 0.6757, "duels_lost": 2.3675, "aerial_lost": 0.5485, "total_contest": 0.4934, "won_contest": 0.2865, "ball_recovery": 1.6353, "challenges_lost": 0.4015, "fouls": 0.4606, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.2062, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1753, "tackles_won": 0.1496, "tackles": 0.1496, "clearances": 0.2069, "blocks": 0.2435, "big_chances_created": 0.2481, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0727, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.6024, "total_progression": 50.7742, "progressive_carries": 2.2521, "shots_off_target": 0.4872, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.735, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.74, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9873, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.735 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0604, "after": 0.0469 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0133 } ], "others": 0.0067, "total": 0.4433, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.44355 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045746 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.040757 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.035771 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.030956 } ], "others_margin": 0.015286 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.680866718292236, "model_output": 6.6809, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0626 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.016 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0170, quality 0.641)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0523, "goal_rate": 0.0523, "shots_on_target": 0.1897, "total_shots": 0.6561, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "key_pass": 0.4508, "rating": 6.6809, "minutes": 21.77, "total_pass": 11.488, "accurate_pass": 8.4311, "duels_won": 0.4174, "total_long_balls": 0.7034, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3368, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.876, "crosses_total": 0.9907, "crosses_accurate": 0.1981, "touches": 16.1354, "possession_lost": 4.7233, "dispossessed": 0.6757, "duels_lost": 2.2665, "aerial_lost": 0.5485, "total_contest": 0.4724, "won_contest": 0.2743, "ball_recovery": 1.5655, "challenges_lost": 0.4015, "fouls": 0.4426, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "assists": 0.1981, "assist_rate": 0.1981, "interceptions": 0.1684, "tackles_won": 0.1432, "tackles": 0.1432, "clearances": 0.1981, "blocks": 0.2331, "big_chances_created": 0.2375, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0897, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.3208, "total_progression": 48.6084, "progressive_carries": 2.156, "shots_off_target": 0.4664 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 21000000, "quality_factor": 0.6408, "boost_factor": 1.017, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 7, "history_shrink": 0.4167, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0036)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0578, "goals": 0.0565, "goal_rate": 0.0565, "shots_on_target": 0.1929, "total_shots": 0.6616, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "key_pass": 0.4508, "rating": 6.6809, "minutes": 21.77, "total_pass": 11.488, "accurate_pass": 8.4311, "duels_won": 0.4174, "total_long_balls": 0.7034, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3368, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.7645, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.876, "crosses_total": 0.9871, 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"expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0154 } ], "others": -0.0723, "total": 0.2582, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.469392 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.089425 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.081411 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.056197 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045629 } ], "others_margin": -0.246535 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.62922477722168, "model_output": 6.6292, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { 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of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0043, quality 0.620)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1285, "goals": 0.1511, "goal_rate": 0.1511, "shots_on_target": 0.3064, "total_shots": 0.8726, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "key_pass": 0.2593, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 19.32, "total_pass": 4.9457, "accurate_pass": 2.996, "duels_won": 1.0668, "total_long_balls": 0.274, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0651, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.4436, "crosses_total": 0.2122, "crosses_accurate": 0.0458, "touches": 8.9126, "possession_lost": 2.8367, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 2.2348, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.1617, "won_contest": 0.0745, "ball_recovery": 0.7339, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.1157, "fouls_drawn": 0.1022, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2312, "tackles_won": 0.3358, "tackles": 0.6068, "clearances": 0.0877, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.042, "xgot": 0.286, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.0417, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.5661 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18900000, "quality_factor": 0.6201, "boost_factor": 1.0043, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 35, "history_shrink": 0.125, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.3 to 26.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.173, "goals": 0.2035, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "shots_on_target": 0.4126, "total_shots": 1.175, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "key_pass": 0.3492, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.6597, "accurate_pass": 4.0343, "duels_won": 1.4365, "total_long_balls": 0.369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2905, "crosses_total": 0.2857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0617, "touches": 12.0014, "possession_lost": 3.8198, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 3.0093, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.2177, "won_contest": 0.1003, "ball_recovery": 0.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3113, "tackles_won": 0.4522, "tackles": 0.8171, "clearances": 0.1181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0566, "xgot": 0.3851, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.4027, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7623, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.02, "projection_minutes": 19.32, "minutes_scale": 1.3466, "appearance_probability": 0.592 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.173, "goals": 0.2035, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "shots_on_target": 0.4126, "total_shots": 1.175, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "key_pass": 0.3492, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.6597, "accurate_pass": 4.0343, "duels_won": 1.4365, "total_long_balls": 0.369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2905, "crosses_total": 0.2857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0617, "touches": 12.0014, "possession_lost": 3.8198, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 3.0093, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.2177, "won_contest": 0.1003, "ball_recovery": 0.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3113, "tackles_won": 0.4522, "tackles": 0.8171, "clearances": 0.1181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0566, "xgot": 0.3851, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.4027, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7623, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.173, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4126, "total_shots": 1.175, "expected_assists": 0.0182, "key_pass": 0.3492, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.6597, "accurate_pass": 4.0343, "duels_won": 1.4365, "total_long_balls": 0.369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2905, "crosses_total": 0.2857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0617, "touches": 12.0014, "possession_lost": 3.8198, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 3.0093, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.2177, "won_contest": 0.1003, "ball_recovery": 0.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3113, "tackles_won": 0.4522, "tackles": 0.8171, "clearances": 0.1181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0566, "xgot": 0.3851, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.4027, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7623, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.37 (squad xG sum 1.2999, xG scale 1.0555, xA scale 1.3513, team xA 0.89 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1081, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4126, "total_shots": 1.175, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.3492, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.6597, "accurate_pass": 4.0343, "duels_won": 1.4365, "total_long_balls": 0.369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2905, "crosses_total": 0.2857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0617, "touches": 12.0014, "possession_lost": 3.8198, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 3.0093, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.2177, "won_contest": 0.1003, "ball_recovery": 0.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3113, "tackles_won": 0.4522, "tackles": 0.8171, "clearances": 0.1181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0566, "xgot": 0.2406, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.4027, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7623, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.372, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2999, "squad_xa_sum": 0.66, "team_expected_assists": 0.8918, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.0555, "xa_scale": 1.3513, "opponent_lambda": 1.409, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.592 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.173, "after": 0.1081 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1081, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4126, "total_shots": 1.175, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.3492, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.6597, "accurate_pass": 4.0343, "duels_won": 1.4365, "total_long_balls": 0.369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2905, "crosses_total": 0.2857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0617, "touches": 12.0014, "possession_lost": 3.8198, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 3.0093, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.2177, "won_contest": 0.1003, "ball_recovery": 0.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3113, "tackles_won": 0.4522, "tackles": 0.8171, "clearances": 0.1181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0566, "xgot": 0.2406, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.4027, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7623, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3238, "fifa_rank": 1811.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1081, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4126, "total_shots": 1.175, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.3492, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.6597, "accurate_pass": 4.0343, "duels_won": 1.4365, "total_long_balls": 0.369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2905, "crosses_total": 0.2857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0617, "touches": 12.0014, "possession_lost": 3.8198, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 3.0093, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.2177, "won_contest": 0.1003, "ball_recovery": 0.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3113, "tackles_won": 0.4522, "tackles": 0.8171, "clearances": 0.1181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0566, "xgot": 0.2406, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.4027, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7623, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0988, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "scorer_weight": 0.1229, "squad_weight_total": 1.5041, "weight_share": 0.0817, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Emersonn", "weight": 0.3645, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3645, "runner_up": "Julio Enciso", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2437 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1081, "goal_rate": 0.2035, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4126, "total_shots": 1.175, "expected_assists": 0.0146, "key_pass": 0.3492, "rating": 6.6292, "minutes": 26.02, "total_pass": 6.6597, "accurate_pass": 4.0343, "duels_won": 1.4365, "total_long_balls": 0.369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.4739, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2905, "crosses_total": 0.2857, "crosses_accurate": 0.0617, "touches": 12.0014, "possession_lost": 3.8198, "dispossessed": 0.3181, "duels_lost": 3.0093, "aerial_lost": 0.945, "total_contest": 0.2177, "won_contest": 0.1003, "ball_recovery": 0.9882, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 1.5024, "fouls_drawn": 0.1376, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3113, "tackles_won": 0.4522, "tackles": 0.8171, "clearances": 0.1181, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0566, "xgot": 0.2406, "offsides": 0.1283, "ball_carries": 1.4027, "total_progression": 0.0, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.7623, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.592, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.464, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0988, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "finishing_factor": 1.1368, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0144, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0117, "squad_weight_total": 1.011, "weight_share": 0.0116, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.592, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Julio Enciso", "weight": 0.2056, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2056, "runner_up": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1721, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Emersonn" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.37, "expected_assists": 0.89, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 396, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mohamed Belloumi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 17100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.602, "defenders": [ "Issa Diop", "Leif Davis" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.166, "xg_multiplier": 0.8983, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belloumi (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Issa Diop and Leif Davis in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oliver McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Issa Diop", "Leif Davis" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2612, "xg_multiplier": 0.8917, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oliver McBurnie (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Issa Diop and Leif Davis in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.89 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.261 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Stroud", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Christian Walton" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.401, "xg_contribution": 0.0447, "xg_multiplier": 0.9722, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Christian Walton", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.599 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Stroud (LM) is evenly matched against Christian Walton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Giles", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Christian Walton", "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "GK", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.27, "xg_contribution": 0.0016, "xg_multiplier": 0.9565, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Christian Walton", "role": "GK", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 }, { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Giles (LWB) is evenly matched against Christian Walton and Dara O'Shea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lewie Coyle", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2700000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Julio Enciso", "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.671, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0185, "xg_multiplier": 0.7827, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Julio Enciso", "role": "LW", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lewie Coyle (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Julio Enciso and Dara O'Shea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €24M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.78 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.018 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Tim Iroegbunam", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 15500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.585, "defenders": [ "Florentino Luís" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.051, "xg_multiplier": 0.9813, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tim Iroegbunam (CM) is evenly matched against Florentino Luís in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Regan Slater", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.513, "defenders": [ "Florentino Luís" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.366, "xg_contribution": 0.0669, "xg_multiplier": 0.8769, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Florentino Luís", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.634 } ], "duel_analysis": "Regan Slater (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Florentino Luís in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.2008, "xg_multiplier": 1.0869, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (LW) is slightly favored against Semi Ajayi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.09 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.201 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Exequiel Palacios", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.442, "xg_contribution": 0.0371, "xg_multiplier": 1.0329, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tim Iroegbunam", "role": "CM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.558 } ], "duel_analysis": "Exequiel Palacios (CAM) is evenly matched against Tim Iroegbunam in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.03 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Emersonn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi", "John Egan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.292, "xg_contribution": 0.3409, "xg_multiplier": 1.1352, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.708 }, { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.708 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emersonn (ST) is slightly favored against Semi Ajayi and John Egan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.14 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.341 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi", "John Egan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.268, "xg_contribution": 0.1014, "xg_multiplier": 1.0999, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 }, { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.732 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (ST) is slightly favored against Semi Ajayi and John Egan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.10 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18800000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.619, "defenders": [ "Semi Ajayi", "John Egan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.25, "xg_contribution": 0.1365, "xg_multiplier": 1.0731, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Semi Ajayi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 }, { "player": "John Egan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.75 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace (ST) is slightly favored against Semi Ajayi and John Egan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.07 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.137 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.534, "away_midfield_power": 0.667, "home_creative_power": 0.432, "away_creative_power": 0.657, "home_defensive_power": 0.512, "away_defensive_power": 0.656, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.444, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Tim Iroegbunam", "Regan Slater", "Elliot Stroud" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Florentino Luís", "Exequiel Palacios", "Julio Enciso", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.6, "key_personal_duel": "Tim Iroegbunam vs Julio Enciso", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.973, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.021 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.409, "away_lambda": 1.372, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mohamed Belloumi": { "opponents": [ "Issa Diop", "Leif Davis" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oliver McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "Issa Diop", "Leif Davis" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Elliot Stroud": { "opponents": [ "Christian Walton", "Abdoul Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Christian Walton", "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lewie Coyle": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso", "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tim Iroegbunam": { "opponents": [ "Florentino Luís", "Exequiel Palacios", "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Regan Slater": { "opponents": [ "Florentino Luís" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Semi Ajayi": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso", "Emersonn", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "John Egan": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Nobel Mendy": { "opponents": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oliver McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oliver McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Christian Walton": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Ryan Giles" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles", "Lewie Coyle" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Lewie Coyle", "Semi Ajayi", "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Florentino Luís": { "opponents": [ "Tim Iroegbunam", "Regan Slater" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Exequiel Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Tim Iroegbunam" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emersonn": { "opponents": [ "Semi Ajayi", "John Egan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Semi Ajayi", "John Egan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "opponents": [ "Semi Ajayi", "John Egan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abdoul Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Tim Iroegbunam vs Julio Enciso will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.61, Away: 0.82. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.113, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1309, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.955, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9774, "home_midfield_factor": 0.973, "away_midfield_factor": 1.021, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5223, "away_avg_quality": 0.6377, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1153, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.708, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.4579, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.876, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.201, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1105, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0643, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.6099, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.8199 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.973, "result": 0.7978 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.01, "result": 0.8058 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.0469 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0343, "result": 1.0828 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.0943 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.955, "result": 1.0451 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.113, "result": 1.1581 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.1581, "result": 1.1581, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.201, "factor": 0.9357, "pre": 1.1581, "result": 1.0836 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0836 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1546, "result": 1.2386 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.398 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.398, "result": 1.398, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.398, "result": 1.398, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.398 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.398 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.398, "result": 1.398, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.979, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.409 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8167, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.975 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.021, "result": 0.9955 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.99, "result": 0.9855 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9855 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9661, "result": 0.9521 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9273, "result": 0.8829 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9774, "result": 0.8629 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1309, "result": 0.9938 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9938, "result": 0.9938, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": -0.201, "factor": 1.1105, "pre": 0.9938, "result": 1.1036 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.1036 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1888, "result": 1.2928 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 2.069, "result": 1.4418 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4418, "result": 1.442, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": false, "multiplier": 1.0, "pre": 1.442, "result": 1.442, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.442 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.442 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.442, "result": 1.442, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.979, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.372 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1546, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1888, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Hull City", "away_squad": "Ipswich Town", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.398, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.442, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.398, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4418, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.979, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.409, "final_away_lambda": 1.372 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0343, "attack_index": 0.924, "defense_concede_index": 1.177, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.28, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.63, "team_ppg": 1.3, "opponent_ppg": 1.3 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9661, "attack_index": 1.032, "defense_concede_index": 0.888, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.23, "team_ppg": 1.3, "opponent_ppg": 1.3 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Hull vs Ipswich. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 5-4-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.398, Away 1.442). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.409, Away 1.372 (most likely score 1-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 9, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Hull City", "away_squad": "Ipswich Town", "home_goals_per90": 1.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.0, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "away_empirical_lambda": 2.069, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.409, "away_lambda": 1.372, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.398, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.442 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.979, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:31:31Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }