{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.096, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "1-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.096, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0743, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Bournemouth", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2514, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.119 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.096 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0923 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.076 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0743 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.063, "0-1": 0.0743, "0-2": 0.0457, "0-3": 0.0185, "0-4": 0.0056, "0-5": 0.0014, "1-0": 0.096, "1-1": 0.119, "1-2": 0.0716, "1-3": 0.029, "1-4": 0.0088, "1-5": 0.0021, "2-0": 0.076, "2-1": 0.0923, "2-2": 0.0561, "2-3": 0.0227, "2-4": 0.0069, "2-5": 0.0017, "3-0": 0.0397, "3-1": 0.0482, "3-2": 0.0293, "3-3": 0.0119, "3-4": 0.0036, "3-5": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0155, "4-1": 0.0189, "4-2": 0.0115, "4-3": 0.0046, "4-4": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0049, "5-1": 0.0059, "5-2": 0.0036, "5-3": 0.0015, "6-0": 0.0013, "6-1": 0.0015, "6-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4537, "draw": 0.2514, "away_win": 0.2948 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.526, "under_2_5_goals": 0.474, "btts_yes": 0.5574, "btts_no": 0.4426, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2967, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2089 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 7.03, "MCR": 6.86, "ATR": 7.07, "GK": 6.85 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.93, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.77, "GK": 7.2 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Bournemouth vs Leeds. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 7 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Bournemouth 2W-2D-4L vs Leeds over 8 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Rayan", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Tyler Adams vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.27, Away: 0.94. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.566, "away_lambda": 1.215, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 8, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 2, "home_multiplier": 0.9833, "away_multiplier": 1.0167 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.119, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4537, "draw": 0.2514, "away_win": 0.2948 }, "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4537, "fair_spread": 0.351, "fair_total": 2.781, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.566, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.215, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5574, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2967, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2089, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Rayan (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.3111, "probability": 0.2674, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.3268, "probability": 0.2788, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.1748, "probability": 0.1604, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jayden Bogle (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.123, "probability": 0.1157, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.781, "expected_total_shots": 33, "expected_total_passes": 810, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.4, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4537, "script": "Bournemouth is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.35 goals and fair total 2.78.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Leeds must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Bournemouth lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Bournemouth chance creation leans on Rayan against James Justin, Nico Elvedi in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through Rayan; bench watchlist: Eli Junior Kroupi, Álvaro Rodriguez, Hamed Junior Traorè.", "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, Brenden Aaronson, Sean Longstaff.", "Assist usage should flow through Adrien Truffert; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Bournemouth tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Leeds is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Bournemouth.", "Leeds wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Bournemouth": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Marcus Tavernier": { "player_id": 895576, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 178, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2981, "goal_rate": 0.3502, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1748, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 7.0421, "minutes": 83, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 5, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 52, "possession_lost": 15.0756, "dispossessed": 1.9683, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0172, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4688, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 60, "progressive_carries": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0096, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_won": 2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2578, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1604, "finishing_factor": 0.978, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363899, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7196, "expected_assists": 0.2055, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1946, "expected_assists": 0.1617, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 5.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.04, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363648, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1119, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1957, "expected_assists": 0.4675, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363637, "match_date": "2026-09-05", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0133, "expected_assists": 0.047, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0887, "expected_assists": 0.2091, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4007, "expected_assists": 0.0759, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2424, "expected_assists": 0.1501, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.5403, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1048, "combined_rank_score": 473.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 81.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.55, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 866.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0421, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcus Tavernier", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Narimonjon Akhmadjonov", "ranking": 1043 }, { "player_name": "Stevan Jovetić", "ranking": 1044 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Rodríguez", "ranking": 1045 }, { "player_name": "Alan Cariús", "ranking": 1046 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Martinelli", "ranking": 1047 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Wojciech Szczęsny", "ranking": 1049 }, { "player_name": "Matías Bórquez", "ranking": 1050 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro Buongiorno", "ranking": 1051 }, { "player_name": "Yoane Wissa", "ranking": 1052 }, { "player_name": "Jong-seong Lee", "ranking": 1053 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 42, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", 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FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Bournemouth, rel: 0.13, gls/90: 0.5, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost F_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3537, "goals": 0.3437, "goal_rate": 0.3437, "shots_on_target": 1.0447, "total_shots": 2.0244, "expected_assists": 0.1682, "key_pass": 1.6886, "rating": 7.0421, "minutes": 83.26, "total_pass": 31.1619, "accurate_pass": 25.8436, "duels_won": 3.5047, "total_long_balls": 1.4285, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7406, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3945, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9608, "crosses_total": 4.8621, "crosses_accurate": 1.1799, "touches": 51.9956, "possession_lost": 14.9857, "dispossessed": 1.9566, "duels_lost": 5.6015, "aerial_lost": 1.295, "total_contest": 1.7613, "won_contest": 0.7084, "ball_recovery": 5.1478, "challenges_lost": 0.5641, "fouls": 0.7364, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "assists": 0.0173, "assist_rate": 0.0173, "interceptions": 0.384, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1879, "combined_rank_score": 727.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 578.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 876.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.004, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Evanilson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jack Hinshelwood", "ranking": 1874 }, { "player_name": "David Retamal", "ranking": 1875 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 }, { "player_name": "Cucho Hernández", "ranking": 1878 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Vanja Milinković-Savić", "ranking": 1880 }, { "player_name": "Abdülkerim Bardakcı", "ranking": 1881 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Arambarri", "ranking": 1882 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hyeon-Jun", "ranking": 1883 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Pavard", "ranking": 1884 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.767, "history_matches": 44, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", 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"margin": 0.538564 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.22276 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.070212 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.04924 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": 0.032678 } ], "others_margin": 0.198 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.09494765847921371, "model_output": 0.0949, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0122 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0112 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.007 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": 0.0039 } ], "others": -0.0003, "total": 0.0949, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.172458 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.125037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.120887 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.073519 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": 0.041829 } ], "others_margin": -0.002847 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.9170875549316406, "model_output": 0.9171, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1525 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0866 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0501 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0486 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0477 } ], "others": 0.0333, "total": 0.9171, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.198727 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097456 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.055224 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.053577 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.052529 } ], "others_margin": 0.036892 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.00398588180542, "model_output": 7.004, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0818 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0491 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0182 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": 0.0797, "total": 7.004, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.081816 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049139 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022614 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.018172 }, { "name": "shotOffTarget", "margin": 0.015474 } ], "others_margin": 0.07961 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 44, "role_matches": 40, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0072, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3427, "goals": 0.3741, "goal_rate": 0.3741, "shots_on_target": 0.7937, "total_shots": 2.4108, "expected_assists": 0.0956, "key_pass": 0.9237, "rating": 7.004, "minutes": 83.58, "total_pass": 19.7604, "accurate_pass": 14.9126, "duels_won": 5.5817, "total_long_balls": 0.6524, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3339, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1219, "crosses_total": 0.564, "crosses_accurate": 0.079, "touches": 35.3426, "possession_lost": 9.8362, "dispossessed": 0.7177, "duels_lost": 5.4184, "aerial_lost": 2.3762, "total_contest": 1.6639, "won_contest": 0.9768, "ball_recovery": 3.2976, "challenges_lost": 0.5014, "fouls": 1.3847, "fouls_drawn": 1.6989, "assists": 0.3288, "assist_rate": 0.3288, "interceptions": 0.7007, "tackles_won": 0.7552, "tackles": 1.0784, "clearances": 1.0433, "blocks": 0.0977, "big_chances_created": 0.3319, "big_chances_missed": 0.3238, "xgot": 0.4304, "offsides": 0.7507, "ball_carries": 9.2709, "total_progression": 25.2967, "progressive_carries": 1.678, "shots_off_target": 1.6171 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 33000000, "quality_factor": 0.7389, "boost_factor": 1.0072, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0075)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3427, "goals": 0.3713, "goal_rate": 0.3713, "shots_on_target": 0.7877, "total_shots": 2.4049, "expected_assists": 0.0956, "key_pass": 0.9237, "rating": 7.004, "minutes": 83.58, "total_pass": 19.7604, "accurate_pass": 14.9126, "duels_won": 5.5817, "total_long_balls": 0.6524, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3339, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.0977, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.1219, 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0366 } ], "others": 0.0435, "total": 1.7069, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.396995 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.160226 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.049347 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.038619 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.036575 } ], "others_margin": 0.043397 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.758166313171387, "model_output": 6.7582, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0477 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0353 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0144 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0078 } ], "others": -0.0182, "total": 6.7582, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.047737 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.035266 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.025589 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.014417 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.007786 } ], "others_margin": -0.018226 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 26, "role_matches": 15, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0079, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "assists": 0.1354, "assist_rate": 0.1354, "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.1797, "goal_rate": 0.1797, "shots_on_target": 0.6017, "total_shots": 1.7204, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8819, "crosses_total": 2.2905, "crosses_accurate": 0.74, "touches": 32.8359, "possession_lost": 9.436, "dispossessed": 1.1937, "duels_lost": 5.266, "aerial_won": 0.3635, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "interceptions": 0.9165, "tackles_won": 0.4886, "tackles": 0.6812, "clearances": 0.0201, "total_contest": 1.3926, "won_contest": 0.6886, "challenges_lost": 0.6073, "fouls": 1.6498, "fouls_drawn": 0.7983, "blocks": 0.0277, "big_chances_created": 0.4358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1126, "xgot": 0.2968, "ball_carries": 7.7522, "total_progression": 37.8674, "progressive_carries": 1.4593, "shots_off_target": 1.1187 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.0079, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 26, "history_shrink": 0.1613, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0119)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "assists": 0.1338, "assist_rate": 0.1338, "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.1776, "goal_rate": 0.1776, "shots_on_target": 0.6117, "total_shots": 1.7285, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8819, "crosses_total": 2.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.74, "touches": 32.8359, "possession_lost": 9.436, "dispossessed": 1.1937, "duels_lost": 5.266, "aerial_won": 0.3635, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "interceptions": 0.9114, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6812, "clearances": 0.0201, "total_contest": 1.3926, "won_contest": 0.6886, "challenges_lost": 0.6073, "fouls": 1.6417, "fouls_drawn": 0.8003, "blocks": 0.0277, "big_chances_created": 0.4358, "big_chances_missed": 0.1126, "xgot": 0.2968, "ball_carries": 7.7522, "total_progression": 37.8674, "progressive_carries": 1.4593, "shots_off_target": 1.1187 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0119, "history_matches": 26, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8226, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.2905, "after": 2.2805 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6017, "after": 0.6117 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7204, "after": 1.7285 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.6498, "after": 1.6417 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.4886, "after": 0.4943 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9165, "after": 0.9114 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "assists": 0.1338, "assist_rate": 0.1338, "expected_goals": 0.188, "goals": 0.1776, "goal_rate": 0.1776, "shots_on_target": 0.6117, "total_shots": 1.7304, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8819, 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1.6292, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8819, "crosses_total": 2.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.74, "touches": 32.8359, "possession_lost": 9.436, "dispossessed": 1.1937, "duels_lost": 5.266, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "interceptions": 0.9114, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6812, "clearances": 0.0201, "total_contest": 1.3926, "won_contest": 0.6886, "challenges_lost": 0.6073, "fouls": 1.6417, "fouls_drawn": 0.8003, "blocks": 0.0277, "big_chances_created": 0.4358, "big_chances_missed": 0.106, "xgot": 0.2794, "ball_carries": 7.7522, "total_progression": 37.8674, "progressive_carries": 1.4593, "shots_off_target": 1.0533, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9415, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin", "opponent_faced": "James Justin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Justin", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9415, "skill_edge": 0.0082, "height_edge": -0.048, "attacker_skill": 0.6685, "defender_skill": 0.6503, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Justin", "market_value": 16500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6503 } ], "xg_override": 0.177 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.3635, "after": 0.8 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.7304, "after": 1.6292 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.1187, "after": 1.0533 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.6117, "after": 0.5759 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.2968, "after": 0.2794 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.188, "after": 0.177 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1776, "after": 0.1672 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1126, "after": 0.106 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "assist_rate": 0.1338, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.177, "goal_rate": 0.1672, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5759, "total_shots": 1.6292, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, 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midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1338, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "goal_rate": 0.1672, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5759, "total_shots": 1.6292, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8819, "crosses_total": 2.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.74, "touches": 32.8359, "possession_lost": 9.436, "dispossessed": 1.1937, "duels_lost": 5.266, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "interceptions": 0.9114, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6812, "clearances": 0.0201, "total_contest": 1.3926, "won_contest": 0.6886, "challenges_lost": 0.6073, "fouls": 1.6417, "fouls_drawn": 0.8003, "blocks": 0.0277, "big_chances_created": 0.4358, "big_chances_missed": 0.106, "xgot": 0.2319, "ball_carries": 7.7522, "total_progression": 37.8674, "progressive_carries": 1.4593, "shots_off_target": 1.0533, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9415, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin", "opponent_faced": "James Justin", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9568, "creation_factor": 1.0661 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.177, "after": 0.1469 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1338, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "goal_rate": 0.1672, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5759, "total_shots": 1.6292, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8819, "crosses_total": 2.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.74, "touches": 32.8359, "possession_lost": 9.436, "dispossessed": 1.1937, "duels_lost": 5.266, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "interceptions": 0.9114, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6812, "clearances": 0.0201, "total_contest": 1.3926, "won_contest": 0.6886, "challenges_lost": 0.6073, "fouls": 1.6417, "fouls_drawn": 0.8003, "blocks": 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FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1631, "expected_assists": 0.1265, "assist_rate": 0.1338, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1469, "goal_rate": 0.1672, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.5759, "total_shots": 1.6292, "rating": 6.7582, "minutes": 74.03, "total_pass": 20.2583, "accurate_pass": 16.5282, "duels_won": 2.5315, "total_long_balls": 0.9246, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7783, "total_own_half_passes": 7.0104, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.6464, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.2478, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.8819, "crosses_total": 2.2805, "crosses_accurate": 0.74, "touches": 32.8359, "possession_lost": 9.436, "dispossessed": 1.1937, "duels_lost": 5.266, "aerial_won": 0.8, "aerial_lost": 1.1112, "interceptions": 0.9114, "tackles_won": 0.4943, "tackles": 0.6812, 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"others_margin": 0.04589 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.7445027828216553, "model_output": 2.7445, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2934 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.582 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.3787 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.1636 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0715 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0695 } ], "others": 0.2377, "total": 2.7445, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.38048, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.581975 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.378748 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.163607 }, { "name": 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"margin": 0.162232 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.107524 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.106375 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.081571 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.072419 } ], "others_margin": 0.022214 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.8568093180656433, "model_output": 0.8568, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1451 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.086 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0531 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.041 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0393 } ], "others": -0.0168, "total": 0.8568, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.189891 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.097602 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.059124 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.045992 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.044045 } ], "others_margin": -0.019405 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.152454376220703, "model_output": 7.1525, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0739 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0589 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0504 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0302 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "contribution": 0.0287 } ], "others": 0.1369, "total": 7.1525, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.07391 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.058932 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.05036 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.030176 }, { "name": "bigChanceMissed", "margin": 0.028683 } ], "others_margin": 0.136888 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0184, quality 0.848)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goals": 0.367, "goal_rate": 0.367, "shots_on_target": 0.8848, "total_shots": 2.795, "expected_assists": 0.0841, "key_pass": 0.8726, "rating": 7.1525, "minutes": 86.03, "total_pass": 21.8235, "accurate_pass": 16.1242, "duels_won": 5.6919, "total_long_balls": 1.2142, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4556, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9772, "crosses_total": 1.835, "crosses_accurate": 0.5135, "touches": 39.489, "possession_lost": 10.9179, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 6.8389, "aerial_lost": 3.2105, "total_contest": 1.6926, "won_contest": 0.696, "ball_recovery": 2.7595, "challenges_lost": 0.8879, "fouls": 0.9579, "fouls_drawn": 1.3869, "assists": 0.0225, "assist_rate": 0.0225, "interceptions": 0.9909, "tackles_won": 0.658, "tackles": 1.1681, "clearances": 1.4326, "blocks": 0.158, "big_chances_created": 0.1358, "big_chances_missed": 0.9239, "xgot": 0.3315, "offsides": 0.0265, "ball_carries": 11.6635, "total_progression": 84.0967, "progressive_carries": 4.2385, "shots_off_target": 1.9102 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 58000000, "quality_factor": 0.8478, "boost_factor": 1.0184, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0155)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goals": 0.3613, "goal_rate": 0.3613, "shots_on_target": 0.8936, "total_shots": 2.7966, "expected_assists": 0.0841, "key_pass": 0.8726, "rating": 7.1525, "minutes": 86.03, "total_pass": 21.8235, "accurate_pass": 16.1242, "duels_won": 5.6919, "total_long_balls": 1.2142, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4556, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9772, 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"after": 1.3654 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9579, "after": 0.9431 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.658, "after": 0.6478 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8848, "after": 0.8936 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9909, "after": 0.983 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.367, "after": 0.3613 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3254, "goals": 0.3613, "goal_rate": 0.3613, "shots_on_target": 0.8936, "total_shots": 2.8038, "expected_assists": 0.0841, "key_pass": 0.8726, "rating": 7.1525, "minutes": 86.03, "total_pass": 21.8235, "accurate_pass": 16.1242, "duels_won": 5.6919, "total_long_balls": 1.2142, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4556, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9772, "crosses_total": 1.8066, "crosses_accurate": 0.5135, "touches": 39.489, "possession_lost": 10.9179, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 6.8389, 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vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.1525, "skill_edge": 0.1057, "height_edge": -0.002, "attacker_skill": 0.8478, "defender_skill": 0.6129, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "James Justin", "market_value": 16500000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.6503 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "market_value": 11000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.5755 } ], "xg_override": 0.375 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.8038, "after": 3.2314 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.9102, "after": 2.2015 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.9239, "after": 1.0648 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.8936, "after": 1.0299 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3613, "after": 0.4164 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3315, "after": 0.3821 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3254, "after": 0.375 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.375, "goal_rate": 0.4164, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0299, "total_shots": 3.2314, "expected_assists": 0.0841, "key_pass": 0.8726, "rating": 7.1525, "minutes": 86.03, "total_pass": 21.8235, "accurate_pass": 16.1242, "duels_won": 5.6919, "total_long_balls": 1.2142, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4556, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9772, "crosses_total": 1.8066, "crosses_accurate": 0.5135, "touches": 39.489, "possession_lost": 10.9179, "dispossessed": 0.8022, "duels_lost": 6.8389, "aerial_lost": 3.2105, "total_contest": 1.6926, "won_contest": 0.696, "ball_recovery": 2.7595, "challenges_lost": 0.8879, "fouls": 0.9431, "fouls_drawn": 1.3654, "assist_rate": 0.0222, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.983, "tackles_won": 0.6478, "tackles": 1.1681, "clearances": 1.4326, "blocks": 0.158, "big_chances_created": 0.1358, "big_chances_missed": 1.0648, "xgot": 0.3821, "offsides": 0.0261, "ball_carries": 11.6635, "total_progression": 84.0967, "progressive_carries": 4.2385, "shots_off_target": 2.2015, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.1525, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "opponent_faced": "James Justin, Nico Elvedi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3111, "goal_rate": 0.4164, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0299, "total_shots": 3.2314, "expected_assists": 0.0869, "key_pass": 0.8726, "rating": 7.1525, "minutes": 86.03, "total_pass": 21.8235, "accurate_pass": 16.1242, "duels_won": 5.6919, "total_long_balls": 1.2142, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4556, "total_opp_half_passes": 15.8044, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9772, "crosses_total": 1.8066, "crosses_accurate": 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.084504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033245 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019789 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.01707 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014867 } ], "others_margin": -0.028985 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113136 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.048933 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027875 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.015432 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.009193 } ], "others_margin": -0.019058 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.697926998138428, "model_output": 6.6979, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0204 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0344, "total": 6.6979, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020446 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013655 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.010861 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010191 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.00968 } ], "others_margin": -0.03446 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0631 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0283 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0261 } ], "others": 0.0527, "total": 0.7115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063147 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.031684 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.029454 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.028273 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.026143 } ], "others_margin": 0.052746 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.144381523132324, "model_output": 7.1444, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": 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"ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 199.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 692.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8067, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Adrien Truffert", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nodar Lominadze", "ranking": 1003 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Moreno", "ranking": 1004 }, { "player_name": "Uk-hyeon Hong", "ranking": 1005 }, { "player_name": "Uğurcan Çakır", "ranking": 1006 }, { "player_name": "Ronald Araújo", "ranking": 1007 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás González", "ranking": 1009 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Francés", "ranking": 1010 }, { "player_name": "Mohammed Kudus", "ranking": 1011 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Seiwald", "ranking": 1012 }, { "player_name": "Mateus Fernandes", "ranking": 1013 } ] } }, 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0.060582 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": 0.052757 } ], "others_margin": 0.079268 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 2.8120837211608887, "model_output": 2.8121, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.4656 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.3421 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.2878 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.2588 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.1068 } ], "others": -0.0807, "total": 2.8121, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.127553 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.092083 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.084638 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.082744 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.03624 } ], "others_margin": -0.02836 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 1.0891225337982178, "model_output": 1.0891, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.2 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1564 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0524 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0453 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0394 } ], "others": -0.1045, "total": 1.0891, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.157297 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125038 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.040199 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.036111 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.032462 } ], "others_margin": -0.091577 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6607230305671692, "model_output": 0.6607, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0689 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0287 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0257 }, { "name": "duelLost", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0127 } ], "others": 0.0312, "total": 0.6607, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.06892 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.028683 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025688 }, { "name": "duelLost", "margin": 0.013383 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.012721 } ], "others_margin": 0.031248 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.806663513183594, "model_output": 6.8067, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0187 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0124 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0122 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0075 } ], "others": -0.0033, "total": 6.8067, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.018721 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.013616 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.012378 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012185 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.007526 } ], "others_margin": -0.003381 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 46, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0069, quality 0.739)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0838, "tackles": 2.3555, "tackles_won": 1.4115, "clearances": 2.8315, "aerial_won": 1.0966, "total_shots": 0.6653, "rating": 6.8067, "minutes": 89.34, "total_pass": 41.9595, "accurate_pass": 34.6748, "duels_won": 5.1953, "total_long_balls": 3.3244, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2357, "total_own_half_passes": 17.6493, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15.6524, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.3102, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.0225, "crosses_total": 3.938, "crosses_accurate": 0.868, "touches": 67.4545, "possession_lost": 14.9678, "dispossessed": 0.3765, "duels_lost": 5.3682, "aerial_lost": 1.1419, "total_contest": 1.9349, "won_contest": 0.7365, "ball_recovery": 4.6784, "challenges_lost": 1.2651, "fouls": 1.6433, "fouls_drawn": 0.7527, "blocks": 0.1584, "goals": 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"rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0386 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.024 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0126 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0119 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 6.9346, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038619 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.023983 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013634 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.01263 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.011936 } ], "others_margin": 0.00505 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.506)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8575, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "assists": 0.0761, "assist_rate": 0.0761, "expected_goals": 0.1044, "goals": 0.1018, "goal_rate": 0.1018, "shots_on_target": 0.3778, "total_shots": 1.151, "rating": 6.9346, "minutes": 73.4, "total_pass": 32.9015, "accurate_pass": 25.4102, "duels_won": 4.3591, "total_long_balls": 4.565, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5615, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8778, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5324, "crosses_total": 0.658, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.805, "possession_lost": 12.5023, "dispossessed": 1.2319, "duels_lost": 4.4991, "aerial_won": 1.0738, "aerial_lost": 1.0143, "interceptions": 0.83, "tackles_won": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.2582, "clearances": 0.6788, "total_contest": 1.4971, "won_contest": 0.7552, "challenges_lost": 0.586, "fouls": 0.9909, "fouls_drawn": 1.3632, "blocks": 0.1912, "big_chances_created": 0.4011, "big_chances_missed": 0.2176, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 12.938, "total_progression": 43.5623, "progressive_carries": 1.4595, "shots_off_target": 0.7732 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8600000, "quality_factor": 0.5059, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 33, "history_shrink": 0.1316, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8575, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "assists": 0.0761, "assist_rate": 0.0761, "expected_goals": 0.1044, "goals": 0.1018, "goal_rate": 0.1018, "shots_on_target": 0.3778, "total_shots": 1.151, "rating": 6.9346, "minutes": 73.4, "total_pass": 32.9015, "accurate_pass": 25.4102, "duels_won": 4.3591, "total_long_balls": 4.565, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5615, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8778, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5324, "crosses_total": 0.658, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.805, "possession_lost": 12.5023, "dispossessed": 1.2319, "duels_lost": 4.4991, "aerial_won": 1.0738, "aerial_lost": 1.0143, "interceptions": 0.83, "tackles_won": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.2582, "clearances": 0.6788, "total_contest": 1.4971, "won_contest": 0.7552, "challenges_lost": 0.586, "fouls": 0.9909, "fouls_drawn": 1.3632, "blocks": 0.1912, "big_chances_created": 0.4011, "big_chances_missed": 0.2176, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 12.938, "total_progression": 43.5623, "progressive_carries": 1.4595, "shots_off_target": 0.7732 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8575, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "assists": 0.0761, "assist_rate": 0.0761, "expected_goals": 0.1044, "goals": 0.1018, "goal_rate": 0.1018, "shots_on_target": 0.3778, "total_shots": 1.151, "rating": 6.9346, "minutes": 73.4, "total_pass": 32.9015, "accurate_pass": 25.4102, "duels_won": 4.3591, "total_long_balls": 4.565, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5615, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8778, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5324, "crosses_total": 0.658, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.805, "possession_lost": 12.5023, "dispossessed": 1.2319, "duels_lost": 4.4991, "aerial_won": 1.0738, "aerial_lost": 1.0143, "interceptions": 0.83, "tackles_won": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.2582, "clearances": 0.6788, "total_contest": 1.4971, "won_contest": 0.7552, "challenges_lost": 0.586, "fouls": 0.9909, "fouls_drawn": 1.3632, "blocks": 0.1912, "big_chances_created": 0.4011, "big_chances_missed": 0.2176, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 12.938, "total_progression": 43.5623, "progressive_carries": 1.4595, "shots_off_target": 0.7732, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8575, "expected_assists": 0.0897, "assist_rate": 0.0761, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1044, "goal_rate": 0.1018, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3778, "total_shots": 1.151, "rating": 6.9346, "minutes": 73.4, "total_pass": 32.9015, "accurate_pass": 25.4102, "duels_won": 4.3591, "total_long_balls": 4.565, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5615, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8778, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5324, "crosses_total": 0.658, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.805, "possession_lost": 12.5023, "dispossessed": 1.2319, "duels_lost": 4.4991, "aerial_won": 1.0738, "aerial_lost": 1.0143, "interceptions": 0.83, "tackles_won": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.2582, "clearances": 0.6788, "total_contest": 1.4971, "won_contest": 0.7552, "challenges_lost": 0.586, "fouls": 0.9909, "fouls_drawn": 1.3632, "blocks": 0.1912, "big_chances_created": 0.4011, "big_chances_missed": 0.2176, "xgot": 0.0522, "ball_carries": 12.938, "total_progression": 43.5623, "progressive_carries": 1.4595, "shots_off_target": 0.7732, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.8575, "expected_assists": 0.0927, "assist_rate": 0.0761, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0866, "goal_rate": 0.1018, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3778, "total_shots": 1.151, "rating": 6.9346, "minutes": 73.4, "total_pass": 32.9015, "accurate_pass": 25.4102, "duels_won": 4.3591, "total_long_balls": 4.565, "accurate_long_balls": 2.5615, "total_own_half_passes": 11.2483, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.8778, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.6532, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.5324, "crosses_total": 0.658, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.805, "possession_lost": 12.5023, "dispossessed": 1.2319, "duels_lost": 4.4991, "aerial_won": 1.0738, "aerial_lost": 1.0143, "interceptions": 0.83, "tackles_won": 1.0476, "tackles": 1.2582, "clearances": 0.6788, "total_contest": 1.4971, "won_contest": 0.7552, "challenges_lost": 0.586, "fouls": 0.9909, "fouls_drawn": 1.3632, "blocks": 0.1912, "big_chances_created": 0.4011, "big_chances_missed": 0.2176, "xgot": 0.0433, "ball_carries": 12.938, "total_progression": 43.5623, "progressive_carries": 1.4595, "shots_off_target": 0.7732, "opponent_faced": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9832, "creation_factor": 0.9026 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1044, "after": 0.0866 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "match_id": 14025123, "match_date": "2025-12-02", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2266, "combined_rank_score": 828.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 788.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6294, "sofascore_appearances": 18.0, "fifa_rank": 869.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7115, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Bafodé Diakité", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Aldrix Jara", "ranking": 2261 }, { "player_name": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "ranking": 2262 }, { "player_name": "Chimy Ávila", "ranking": 2263 }, { "player_name": "Andrés Martín", "ranking": 2264 }, { "player_name": "Brais Méndez", "ranking": 2265 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Kwasi Sibo", "ranking": 2267 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Henderson", "ranking": 2268 }, { "player_name": "Andoni Gorosabel", "ranking": 2269 }, { "player_name": "Jeong-Yeon Wu", "ranking": 2270 }, { "player_name": "Leo Román", "ranking": 2271 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 20, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", 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"player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-25", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 9.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.156, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-18", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 8.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1326, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-31", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "minutes": 1.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.1127, "rating": 0.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-19", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0958, "rating": 6.4 }, { "match_date": "2026-01-07", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 14.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0815, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-27", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 45.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0692, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-20", "opponent": "Burnley", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0589, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2025-12-15", "opponent": 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"importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4821 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0137 } ], "others": -0.03, "total": 0.2665, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.841986 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.059585 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "margin": -0.056473 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.046578 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045247 } ], "others_margin": -0.106573 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.2751905918121338, "model_output": 1.2752, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.2354 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.1509 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0717 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0716 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": 0.0613 } ], "others": 0.1776, "total": 1.2752, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.058753 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.135912 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.071729 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.071602 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": 0.057472 } ], "others_margin": 0.149976 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.5029928088188171, "model_output": 0.503, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8403 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1026 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0283 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.026 } ], "others": 0.0471, "total": 0.503, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.945268 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.213373 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.067769 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.064467 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.058643 } ], "others_margin": 0.09814 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.17735403776168823, "model_output": 0.1774, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.172 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0903 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0159 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0063 } ], "others": -0.0136, "total": 0.1774, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.172009 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.090268 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017181 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.015907 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": 0.006347 } ], "others_margin": -0.013709 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7115068435668945, "model_output": 6.7115, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0129 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0038, "total": 6.7115, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.037382 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.016345 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.012947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011312 } ], "others_margin": 0.003859 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 5, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0093, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.4074, "tackles": 0.4987, "tackles_won": 0.269, "clearances": 1.287, "aerial_won": 0.5077, "total_shots": 0.179, "rating": 6.7115, "minutes": 11.03, "total_pass": 3.6023, "accurate_pass": 3.126, "duels_won": 0.4392, "total_long_balls": 0.3343, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1671, "total_own_half_passes": 2.3677, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2006, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.2345, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9253, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 5.5657, "possession_lost": 0.9156, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.2313, "aerial_lost": 0.2313, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.694, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023988, "match_date": "2026-03-14", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023980, "match_date": "2026-03-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, 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"match_date": "2026-02-10", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0578, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 6, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1906, "combined_rank_score": 737.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 540.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8258, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 935.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7918, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álex Jiménez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Choi Han-sol", "ranking": 1901 }, { "player_name": "Santi Comesaña", "ranking": 1902 }, { "player_name": "Federico Lanzillotta", "ranking": 1903 }, { "player_name": "Dong-su Lee", "ranking": 1904 }, { "player_name": "Armand Laurienté", "ranking": 1905 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Baleba", "ranking": 1907 }, { "player_name": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "ranking": 1908 }, { "player_name": "Ramy Najjarine", "ranking": 1909 }, { "player_name": "Pape Matar Sarr", "ranking": 1910 }, { "player_name": "Christian Moreno", "ranking": 1911 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 31, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", 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"importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2562 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0147 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0144 } ], "others": 0.0282, "total": 0.329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.256168 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.025634 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.022227 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.014669 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.014437 } ], "others_margin": 0.028114 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.791787624359131, 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0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4595 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1997 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0483 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0447 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0289 } ], "others": -0.116, "total": 0.5418, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.459459 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.199693 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.048329 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.044667 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.028931 } ], "others_margin": -0.116087 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9727396965026855, "model_output": 6.9727, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2795, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0446, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "expected_goals": 0.03, "goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0328, "shots_on_target": 0.106, "total_shots": 0.2448, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 2.0322, "accurate_pass": 2.0322, "duels_won": 1.0161, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.0161, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.1127, "possession_lost": 2.0322, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0483, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0161, "clearances": 1.0161, "total_contest": 1.0161, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0161, "total_progression": 7.7171, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0161, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goals": 0.041, "goal_rate": 0.041, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2497, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goals": 0.041, "goal_rate": 0.041, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0375, "after": 0.0162 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0235, "after": 0.0127 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3661, "fifa_rank": 2329.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "goal_rate": 0.041, "scorer_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 1.5747, "weight_share": 0.0107, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.3414, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3414, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3226 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "provider_weight": 0.0159, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.016, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Marcus Tavernier", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1398, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "player_id": 1426228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 17, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1775, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0434, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363899, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2085, "expected_assists": 0.0828, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1863, 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"season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14024023, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0007, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Leeds 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0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0711 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 6.6701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071075 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.015287 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.011894 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": -0.009476 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008156 } ], "others_margin": -0.011265 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1163, "goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1207, "shots_on_target": 0.4055, "total_shots": 1.0117, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "key_pass": 0.5797, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 16.74, "total_pass": 6.4957, "accurate_pass": 4.5471, "duels_won": 0.6459, "total_long_balls": 0.1831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1879, "crosses_total": 0.5353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4477, "possession_lost": 4.0138, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 1.5961, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.3798, "won_contest": 0.1239, "ball_recovery": 1.3909, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 0.8136, "fouls_drawn": 0.1471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3748, "tackles_won": 0.2981, "tackles": 0.2981, "clearances": 0.6518, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1372, "xgot": 0.2239, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0518, "total_progression": 2.1916, "progressive_carries": 0.3865, "shots_off_target": 0.6062 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.7 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.3358, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.02, "projection_minutes": 16.74, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.3358, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.3358, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.1775, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1744, "after": 0.0922 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0683, "after": 0.045 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.1775, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1554, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.1775, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "goal_rate": 0.181, "scorer_weight": 0.0949, "squad_weight_total": 1.5747, "weight_share": 0.0603, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.3414, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3414, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3226 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.1775, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0858, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0434, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0434, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.036, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0363, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.637, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Marcus Tavernier", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1398, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Álvaro Rodriguez": { "player_id": 1154587, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 193, "market_value": 18200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, 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"contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0172 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 0.3512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.473382 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087427 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.053337 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.051893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044562 } ], "others_margin": -0.074171 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.64236307144165, "model_output": 6.6424, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.066 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0514, "total": 6.6424, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065965 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018603 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012564 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009914 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009768 } ], "others_margin": -0.051534 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goals": 0.1032, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "shots_on_target": 0.2466, "total_shots": 0.8018, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3525, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 15.97, "total_pass": 5.4178, "accurate_pass": 3.8205, "duels_won": 2.1915, "total_long_balls": 0.0538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0538, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9736, "crosses_total": 0.1678, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5299, "possession_lost": 2.685, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 1.9038, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.3642, "won_contest": 0.3642, "ball_recovery": 0.7783, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6837, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1509, "tackles": 0.1509, "clearances": 0.5301, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1966, "xgot": 0.0131, "offsides": 0.4221, "ball_carries": 2.6319, "total_progression": 4.8148, "progressive_carries": 0.1387, "shots_off_target": 0.5551 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.0038, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goals": 0.1031, "goal_rate": 0.1031, "shots_on_target": 0.2465, "total_shots": 0.8014, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3525, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 15.97, "total_pass": 5.4178, "accurate_pass": 3.8205, "duels_won": 2.1915, "total_long_balls": 0.0538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0538, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9736, "crosses_total": 0.1677, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5299, "possession_lost": 2.685, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 1.9038, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.3642, "won_contest": 0.3642, "ball_recovery": 0.7783, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.2434, "fouls_drawn": 0.6843, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1508, "tackles": 0.1509, "clearances": 0.5301, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1966, "xgot": 0.0131, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.6319, "total_progression": 4.8148, "progressive_carries": 0.1387, "shots_off_target": 0.5551 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1774, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.0 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0141, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.19, "projection_minutes": 15.97, "minutes_scale": 1.0764, "appearance_probability": 0.733 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0141, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0141, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.733 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0884, "after": 0.0538 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0264, "after": 0.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3370, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "goal_rate": 0.111, "scorer_weight": 0.0626, "squad_weight_total": 1.5747, "weight_share": 0.0397, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.3414, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3414, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3226 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.016, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0161, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Marcus Tavernier", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1398, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Álvaro Rodriguez": { "player_id": 1154587, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 193, "market_value": 18200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363881, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0228, "expected_assists": 0.0344, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363640, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363247, "match_date": 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"LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083252, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1096, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3370, "combined_rank_score": 1330.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 438.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9088, "sofascore_appearances": 34.0, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6424, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Rodriguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Iñaki Peña", "ranking": 3365 }, { "player_name": "Liam Scales", "ranking": 3366 }, { "player_name": "Matías Vecino", "ranking": 3367 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Estève", "ranking": 3368 }, { "player_name": "Fotis Ioannidis", "ranking": 3369 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Franjo Ivanović", "ranking": 3371 }, { "player_name": "Mika Biereth", "ranking": 3372 }, { "player_name": "Mario Soriano", "ranking": 3373 }, { "player_name": "Ernest Poku", "ranking": 3374 }, { "player_name": "Dilane Bakwa", "ranking": 3375 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "expectedGoals", "goals", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "shot_accuracy", "xg_per_shot", "touches_p90", "totalShots_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballCarriesCount_p90", "big_chance_conversion", "shot_waste_rate", "aerial_dominance", "press_resistance_fwd", 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"name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.04072 } ], "others_margin": 0.027803 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.7987489700317383, "model_output": 0.7987, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2934 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0662 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.05 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0272 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "importance": 0.027 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3805, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5871 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0523 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.0439 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "contribution": -0.027 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0264 } ], "others": 0.0671, "total": 0.7987, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.38048, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.587117 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.052267 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.043907 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": -0.027034 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.026416 } ], "others_margin": 0.067197 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.0244363434612751, "model_output": 0.0244, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1135 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0826 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0587 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0042 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0034 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0029 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0027 } ], "others": -0.012, "total": 0.0244, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.39037 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.100641 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.089634 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.07754 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.071703 } ], "others_margin": -0.398603 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.35118603706359863, "model_output": 0.3512, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2617 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0206 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.02 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0172 } ], "others": -0.027, "total": 0.3512, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.473382 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.087427 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.053337 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.051893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.044562 } ], "others_margin": -0.074171 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.64236307144165, "model_output": 6.6424, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.066 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0186 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0126 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0099 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0098 } ], "others": -0.0514, "total": 6.6424, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.065965 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.018603 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.012564 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.009914 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009768 } ], "others_margin": -0.051534 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 14, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.613)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goals": 0.1032, "goal_rate": 0.1032, "shots_on_target": 0.2466, "total_shots": 0.8018, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3525, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 15.97, "total_pass": 5.4178, "accurate_pass": 3.8205, "duels_won": 2.1915, "total_long_balls": 0.0538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0538, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9736, "crosses_total": 0.1678, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5299, "possession_lost": 2.685, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 1.9038, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.3642, "won_contest": 0.3642, "ball_recovery": 0.7783, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.2426, "fouls_drawn": 0.6837, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1509, "tackles": 0.1509, "clearances": 0.5301, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1966, "xgot": 0.0131, "offsides": 0.4221, "ball_carries": 2.6319, "total_progression": 4.8148, "progressive_carries": 0.1387, "shots_off_target": 0.5551 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18200000, "quality_factor": 0.613, "boost_factor": 1.0038, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0005)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0821, "goals": 0.1031, "goal_rate": 0.1031, "shots_on_target": 0.2465, "total_shots": 0.8014, "expected_assists": 0.0245, "key_pass": 0.3525, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 15.97, "total_pass": 5.4178, "accurate_pass": 3.8205, "duels_won": 2.1915, "total_long_balls": 0.0538, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0538, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3252, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9736, "crosses_total": 0.1677, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.5299, "possession_lost": 2.685, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 1.9038, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.3642, "won_contest": 0.3642, "ball_recovery": 0.7783, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.2434, "fouls_drawn": 0.6843, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1508, "tackles": 0.1509, "clearances": 0.5301, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1966, "xgot": 0.0131, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.6319, "total_progression": 4.8148, "progressive_carries": 0.1387, "shots_off_target": 0.5551 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0005, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1774, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Bournemouth" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.0 to 17.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.73)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0141, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 17.19, "projection_minutes": 15.97, "minutes_scale": 1.0764, "appearance_probability": 0.733 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goals": 0.111, "goal_rate": 0.111, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0141, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0884, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0141, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.733 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0884, "after": 0.0538 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0264, "after": 0.02 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3370, "fifa_rank": 2222.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "goal_rate": 0.111, "scorer_weight": 0.0626, "squad_weight_total": 1.5747, "weight_share": 0.0397, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.3414, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3414, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3226 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goal_rate": 0.111, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2653, "total_shots": 0.8628, "expected_assists": 0.02, "key_pass": 0.3794, "rating": 6.6424, "minutes": 17.19, "total_pass": 5.8317, "accurate_pass": 4.1124, "duels_won": 2.3589, "total_long_balls": 0.0579, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0579, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6556, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.2008, "crosses_total": 0.1805, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.2579, "possession_lost": 2.8901, "dispossessed": 0.2631, "duels_lost": 2.0492, "aerial_lost": 1.4809, "total_contest": 0.392, "won_contest": 0.392, "ball_recovery": 0.8378, "challenges_lost": 0.0203, "fouls": 0.262, "fouls_drawn": 0.7366, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.1623, "tackles": 0.1624, "clearances": 0.5706, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2116, "xgot": 0.0086, "offsides": 0.4219, "ball_carries": 2.833, "total_progression": 5.1826, "progressive_carries": 0.1493, "shots_off_target": 0.5975, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.733, "bench_expected_minutes": 17.19, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0519, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "finishing_factor": 1.1633, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0197, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.016, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.0161, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.733, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Marcus Tavernier", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1398, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "player_id": 1426228, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 179, "market_value": 72000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, 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0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0711 }, { "name": "goals", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "contribution": -0.0095 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": -0.0112, "total": 6.6701, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071075 }, { "name": "goals", "margin": -0.015287 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.011894 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": -0.009476 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008156 } ], "others_margin": -0.011265 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0142, quality 0.873)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1163, "goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1207, "shots_on_target": 0.4055, "total_shots": 1.0117, "expected_assists": 0.0455, "key_pass": 0.5797, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 16.74, "total_pass": 6.4957, "accurate_pass": 4.5471, "duels_won": 0.6459, "total_long_balls": 0.1831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6457, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.1879, "crosses_total": 0.5353, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 11.4477, "possession_lost": 4.0138, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 1.5961, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.3798, "won_contest": 0.1239, "ball_recovery": 1.3909, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 0.8136, "fouls_drawn": 0.1471, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.3748, "tackles_won": 0.2981, "tackles": 0.2981, "clearances": 0.6518, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1372, "xgot": 0.2239, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.0518, "total_progression": 2.1916, "progressive_carries": 0.3865, "shots_off_target": 0.6062 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 72000000, "quality_factor": 0.8734, "boost_factor": 1.0142, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 16.7 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.3358, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.02, "projection_minutes": 16.74, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.637 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goals": 0.181, "goal_rate": 0.181, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.3358, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1744, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.0683, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.3358, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.1775, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.637 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1744, "after": 0.0922 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0683, "after": 0.045 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2058, "xgot": 0.1775, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.5777, "total_progression": 3.2874, "progressive_carries": 0.5797, "shots_off_target": 0.9093, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.637, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.02, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0294, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1554, "fifa_rank": 703.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0922, "goal_rate": 0.181, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6083, "total_shots": 1.5176, "expected_assists": 0.045, "key_pass": 0.8696, "rating": 6.6701, "minutes": 27.02, "total_pass": 9.7436, "accurate_pass": 6.8207, "duels_won": 0.9688, "total_long_balls": 0.2747, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6.9685, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.7819, "crosses_total": 0.803, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.1715, "possession_lost": 6.0207, "dispossessed": 0.0768, "duels_lost": 2.3942, "aerial_lost": 0.3943, "total_contest": 0.5697, "won_contest": 0.1858, "ball_recovery": 2.0863, "challenges_lost": 0.0555, "fouls": 1.2204, "fouls_drawn": 0.2207, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5622, "tackles_won": 0.4471, "tackles": 0.4471, "clearances": 0.9777, "blocks": 0.0, 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.063152 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.049298 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.029748 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.017535 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.011995 } ], "others_margin": -0.051863 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 1, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0161, quality 0.569)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2795, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assists": 0.0446, "assist_rate": 0.0446, "expected_goals": 0.03, "goals": 0.0328, "goal_rate": 0.0328, "shots_on_target": 0.106, "total_shots": 0.2448, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 18.0, "total_pass": 2.0322, "accurate_pass": 2.0322, "duels_won": 1.0161, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.0322, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.0161, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 7.1127, "possession_lost": 2.0322, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.0483, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.0161, "clearances": 1.0161, "total_contest": 1.0161, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.0161, "total_progression": 7.7171, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1388 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14100000, "quality_factor": 0.5693, "boost_factor": 1.0161, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 1, "history_shrink": 0.8333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.0 to 22.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.52)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goals": 0.041, "goal_rate": 0.041, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.49, "projection_minutes": 18.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2497, "appearance_probability": 0.522 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assists": 0.0557, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goals": 0.041, "goal_rate": 0.041, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0235, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0375, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.57 (squad xG sum 1.8872, xG scale 0.8298, xA scale 1.0336, team xA 1.02 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.566, "squad_xg_sum": 1.8872, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9848, "team_expected_assists": 1.0179, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.8298, "xa_scale": 1.0336, "opponent_lambda": 1.215, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.522 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0375, "after": 0.0162 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0235, "after": 0.0127 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3661, "fifa_rank": 2329.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "goal_rate": 0.041, "scorer_weight": 0.0168, "squad_weight_total": 1.5747, "weight_share": 0.0107, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Rayan", "weight": 0.3414, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3414, "runner_up": "Evanilson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3226 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3493, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "goal_rate": 0.041, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "total_shots": 0.306, "rating": 6.6324, "minutes": 22.49, "total_pass": 2.5396, "accurate_pass": 2.5396, "duels_won": 1.2698, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.5396, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 1.2698, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.8887, "possession_lost": 2.5396, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3.8094, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 2.0322, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 1.2698, "clearances": 1.2698, "total_contest": 1.2698, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.2698, "total_progression": 9.644, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1735, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.522, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.49, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.574, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.016, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "finishing_factor": 1.04, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0125, "assist_rate": 0.0557, "provider_weight": 0.0159, "squad_weight_total": 0.9927, "weight_share": 0.016, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.522, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Adrien Truffert", "weight": 0.1889, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.1889, "runner_up": "Marcus Tavernier", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1398, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Rayan" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.57, "expected_assists": 1.02, "total_shots": 18, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 415, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.98, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } }, "Leeds": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "James Trafford": { "player_id": 980643, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 197, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 22, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 54, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.812, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.5636, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4818, "shots_faced": 14.9, "expected_saves": 3.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Evanilson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363900, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.8073 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 1 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.0337, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.4422, "accurate_pass": 26.2894, "total_long_balls": 21.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 7.8482, "touches": 53.86, "clearances": 1.5579, "ball_recovery": 11.7097, "high_claims": 1.2879, "punches": 0.812, "aerial_won": 0.4431, "sweeper_actions": 2.156, "sweeper_accurate": 2.11, "saves_inside_box": 1.936, "possession_lost": 14.5636, "duels_won": 0.5903, "duels_lost": 0.1867, "total_contest": 0.0414, "won_contest": 0.0414, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0343, "total_own_half_passes": 20.749, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6507, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4818, "shots_faced": 14.9, "expected_saves": 3.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Evanilson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, 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0.4431, "sweeper_actions": 2.156, "sweeper_accurate": 2.11, "saves_inside_box": 1.936, "possession_lost": 14.5636, "duels_won": 0.5903, "duels_lost": 0.1867, "total_contest": 0.0414, "won_contest": 0.0414, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0343, "total_own_half_passes": 20.749, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6507, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4818, "shots_faced": 14.9, "expected_saves": 3.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Evanilson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.2696, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "saves": 3.0337, "goals_prevented": -0.0141, "rating": 7.2042, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 40.4422, "accurate_pass": 26.2894, "total_long_balls": 21.7279, "accurate_long_balls": 7.8482, "touches": 53.86, "clearances": 1.5579, "ball_recovery": 11.7097, "high_claims": 1.2879, "punches": 0.812, "aerial_won": 0.4431, "sweeper_actions": 2.156, "sweeper_accurate": 2.11, "saves_inside_box": 1.936, "possession_lost": 14.5636, "duels_won": 0.5903, "duels_lost": 0.1867, "total_contest": 0.0414, "won_contest": 0.0414, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0343, "total_own_half_passes": 20.749, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.6507, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.4818, "shots_faced": 14.9, "expected_saves": 3.65, "high_pressure_saves": 1.25, "opponent_faced": "Rayan, Evanilson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", 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"assist_probability": 0.0655, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.1826, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363900, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0153, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363886, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0871, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363871, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363644, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2766, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.119638 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101575 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.05129 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.017367 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": -0.016012 } ], "others_margin": -0.058182 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.8283889293670654, "model_output": 0.8284, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2184 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0558 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0154 } ], "others": 0.013, "total": 0.8284, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.218387 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.055802 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.023133 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022553 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.015419 } ], "others_margin": 0.013014 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.8302202224731445, "model_output": 6.8302, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.027 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0253 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0166 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0131 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0307, "total": 6.8302, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.027011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.025267 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.016565 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.013124 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.007868 } ], "others_margin": -0.030587 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 29, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1081, "tackles": 2.1736, "tackles_won": 1.3046, "clearances": 3.5006, "aerial_won": 1.5438, "total_shots": 0.8311, "rating": 6.8302, "minutes": 88.5, "total_pass": 34.1895, "accurate_pass": 26.0339, "duels_won": 5.57, "total_long_balls": 4.7506, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4583, "total_own_half_passes": 17.9252, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.9202, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.2642, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1137, "crosses_total": 2.8865, "crosses_accurate": 0.4902, "touches": 56.0563, "possession_lost": 12.813, "dispossessed": 0.2165, "duels_lost": 3.0673, "aerial_lost": 1.1871, "total_contest": 0.3318, "won_contest": 0.2095, "ball_recovery": 3.2254, "challenges_lost": 0.8192, "fouls": 0.7222, "fouls_drawn": 1.3025, "blocks": 0.4594, "goals": 0.1495, 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"is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0599 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0181 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0172 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0163 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": -0.0162, "total": 0.5254, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059854 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.018063 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017245 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.016279 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.015551 } ], "others_margin": -0.016054 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.864361763000488, "model_output": 6.8644, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0595 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0303 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0188 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0088 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 6.8644, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.059518 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.030253 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018798 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011126 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0040, quality 0.534)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9417, "tackles": 1.0586, "tackles_won": 0.6195, "clearances": 5.0422, "aerial_won": 2.481, "total_shots": 0.5275, "rating": 6.8644, "minutes": 89.35, "total_pass": 54.2559, "accurate_pass": 49.0702, "duels_won": 3.7487, "total_long_balls": 3.4475, "accurate_long_balls": 2.0683, "total_own_half_passes": 32.9603, "accurate_own_half_passes": 31.4848, "total_opp_half_passes": 21.2954, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.5854, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 64.1692, "possession_lost": 5.8007, "dispossessed": 0.1663, "duels_lost": 3.1809, "aerial_lost": 2.165, "total_contest": 0.5415, "won_contest": 0.5415, "ball_recovery": 3.3203, "challenges_lost": 0.4782, "fouls": 0.3714, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.6738, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0335, quality 0.796)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1552, "tackles": 0.9951, "tackles_won": 0.5681, "clearances": 6.8579, "aerial_won": 3.9191, "total_shots": 0.8668, "rating": 7.092, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 61.4969, "accurate_pass": 52.6688, "duels_won": 5.8523, "total_long_balls": 6.847, "accurate_long_balls": 3.5047, "total_own_half_passes": 43.3952, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40.4218, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1016, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.247, "crosses_total": 0.0804, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 78.023, "possession_lost": 9.6727, "dispossessed": 0.0804, "duels_lost": 3.7316, "aerial_lost": 2.4838, "total_contest": 0.6353, "won_contest": 0.4222, "ball_recovery": 2.9913, "challenges_lost": 0.1749, "fouls": 0.7794, "fouls_drawn": 0.9182, "blocks": 0.6291, "goals": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0038, quality 0.623)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9975, "expected_assists": 0.1143, "assists": 0.0956, "assist_rate": 0.0956, "expected_goals": 0.1357, "goals": 0.193, "goal_rate": 0.193, "shots_on_target": 0.4364, "total_shots": 1.2749, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 81.68, "total_pass": 25.4901, "accurate_pass": 18.7999, "duels_won": 4.7982, "total_long_balls": 2.6326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.95, "total_own_half_passes": 9.414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6586, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1413, "crosses_total": 2.7667, "crosses_accurate": 0.7728, "touches": 44.4588, "possession_lost": 13.3299, "dispossessed": 1.458, "duels_lost": 5.5912, "aerial_won": 1.0108, "aerial_lost": 0.7213, "interceptions": 0.5242, "tackles_won": 0.9135, "tackles": 1.4461, "clearances": 1.626, 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1.2588, "after": 1.2699 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2749, "after": 1.2649 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.7667, "after": 2.7576 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9975, "expected_assists": 0.1143, "assists": 0.0949, "assist_rate": 0.0949, "expected_goals": 0.1357, "goals": 0.1915, "goal_rate": 0.1915, "shots_on_target": 0.433, "total_shots": 1.2715, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 81.68, "total_pass": 25.4901, "accurate_pass": 18.7999, "duels_won": 4.7982, "total_long_balls": 2.6326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.95, "total_own_half_passes": 9.414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6586, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1413, "crosses_total": 2.7576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7728, "touches": 44.4588, "possession_lost": 13.3299, "dispossessed": 1.458, "duels_lost": 5.5912, "aerial_won": 1.0108, "aerial_lost": 0.7213, "interceptions": 0.5243, 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"expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1689, "after": 0.1579 }, { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.0108, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1357, "after": 0.1269 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1299, "after": 0.1215 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9975, "expected_assists": 0.1143, "assist_rate": 0.0949, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1269, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4049, "total_shots": 1.189, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 81.68, "total_pass": 25.4901, "accurate_pass": 18.7999, "duels_won": 4.7982, "total_long_balls": 2.6326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.95, "total_own_half_passes": 9.414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6586, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1413, "crosses_total": 2.7576, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9975, "expected_assists": 0.123, "assist_rate": 0.0949, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1207, "goal_rate": 0.1791, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4049, "total_shots": 1.189, "rating": 6.8753, "minutes": 81.68, "total_pass": 25.4901, "accurate_pass": 18.7999, "duels_won": 4.7982, "total_long_balls": 2.6326, "accurate_long_balls": 0.95, "total_own_half_passes": 9.414, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.6586, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.0761, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.1413, "crosses_total": 2.7576, "crosses_accurate": 0.7728, "touches": 44.4588, "possession_lost": 13.3299, 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"description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6576, "expected_assists": 0.0592, "assists": 0.0685, "assist_rate": 0.0685, "expected_goals": 0.0383, "goals": 0.0462, "goal_rate": 0.0462, "shots_on_target": 0.1495, "total_shots": 0.6128, "rating": 7.0545, "minutes": 89.81, "total_pass": 51.4954, "accurate_pass": 43.756, "duels_won": 4.2949, "total_long_balls": 5.2791, "accurate_long_balls": 2.8886, "total_own_half_passes": 26.2561, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.8685, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.2393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8875, "crosses_total": 0.7614, "crosses_accurate": 0.281, "touches": 69.3982, "possession_lost": 13.0921, "dispossessed": 0.2394, "duels_lost": 3.7301, "aerial_won": 1.1434, "aerial_lost": 0.7817, "interceptions": 1.6335, "tackles_won": 0.8884, "tackles": 2.068, "clearances": 2.1942, "total_contest": 0.1667, "won_contest": 0.1429, "challenges_lost": 0.74, "fouls": 2.0175, "fouls_drawn": 0.9449, 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0.0258, "xgot": 0.0746, "ball_carries": 14.5703, "total_progression": 37.5403, "progressive_carries": 0.7014, "shots_off_target": 0.4823, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0419, "dribbles_attempted": 3.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Tyler Adams", "opponent_faced": "Tyler Adams", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6576, "expected_assists": 0.0638, 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0.11411 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.027604 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.01951 } ], "others_margin": -0.057257 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.058632731437683, "model_output": 1.0586, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1467 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0742 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0565 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0348 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0208 } ], "others": -0.1015, "total": 1.0586, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": 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{ "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2605 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1119 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0579 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0423 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0309 } ], "others": -0.0565, "total": 0.7073, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.260455 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.111884 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.057932 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.042345 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.030901 } ], "others_margin": -0.056486 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.815309524536133, "model_output": 6.8153, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0052, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1258, "goals": 0.1261, "goal_rate": 0.1261, "shots_on_target": 0.3893, "total_shots": 1.3193, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "key_pass": 0.9466, "rating": 6.7095, "minutes": 75.82, "total_pass": 21.3422, "accurate_pass": 17.6392, "duels_won": 2.7105, "total_long_balls": 2.1652, "accurate_long_balls": 1.256, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7478, "crosses_total": 3.4452, "crosses_accurate": 1.1957, "touches": 35.7168, "possession_lost": 8.6587, "dispossessed": 0.7146, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.5219, "total_contest": 1.5036, "won_contest": 0.6893, "ball_recovery": 2.0205, "challenges_lost": 1.0032, "fouls": 0.3491, "fouls_drawn": 0.7161, "assists": 0.0853, "assist_rate": 0.0853, "interceptions": 0.3185, 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"Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1258, "goals": 0.1254, "goal_rate": 0.1254, "shots_on_target": 0.3871, "total_shots": 1.317, "expected_assists": 0.0725, "key_pass": 0.9466, "rating": 6.7095, "minutes": 75.82, "total_pass": 21.3422, "accurate_pass": 17.6392, "duels_won": 2.7105, "total_long_balls": 2.1652, "accurate_long_balls": 1.256, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7478, "crosses_total": 3.4494, "crosses_accurate": 1.1957, "touches": 35.7168, "possession_lost": 8.6587, "dispossessed": 0.7146, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.5219, "total_contest": 1.5036, "won_contest": 0.6893, "ball_recovery": 2.0205, "challenges_lost": 1.0032, "fouls": 0.3511, "fouls_drawn": 0.716, "assists": 0.0848, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "interceptions": 0.3245, "tackles_won": 0.6661, "tackles": 1.1326, "clearances": 1.1827, "blocks": 0.2513, "big_chances_created": 0.3868, "big_chances_missed": 0.0772, 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contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1054, "goal_rate": 0.1105, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.341, "total_shots": 1.1601, "expected_assists": 0.0782, "key_pass": 0.9466, "rating": 6.7095, "minutes": 75.82, "total_pass": 21.3422, "accurate_pass": 17.6392, "duels_won": 2.7105, "total_long_balls": 2.1652, "accurate_long_balls": 1.256, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.4911, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7478, "crosses_total": 3.4494, "crosses_accurate": 1.1957, "touches": 35.7168, "possession_lost": 8.6587, "dispossessed": 0.7146, "duels_lost": 3.403, "aerial_lost": 0.5219, "total_contest": 1.5036, "won_contest": 0.6893, "ball_recovery": 2.0205, "challenges_lost": 1.0032, "fouls": 0.3511, "fouls_drawn": 0.716, "assist_rate": 0.0848, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.3245, "tackles_won": 0.6661, "tackles": 1.1326, "clearances": 1.1827, "blocks": 0.2513, 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"player_name": "Gerard Gumbau", "ranking": 1978 }, { "player_name": "Malik Tillman", "ranking": 1979 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Vargas", "ranking": 1980 }, { "player_name": "Norman Rodríguez", "ranking": 1981 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 37, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", 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14.3 expected mins (appearance prob 0.23); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3597, "tackles": 0.5083, "tackles_won": 0.3081, "clearances": 1.6089, "aerial_won": 0.851, "total_shots": 0.2068, "rating": 6.7196, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.7732, "accurate_pass": 21.7451, "duels_won": 3.2104, "total_long_balls": 2.1213, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6325, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0159, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.1964, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7574, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5487, "crosses_total": 0.337, "crosses_accurate": 0.2821, "touches": 40.6396, "possession_lost": 7.612, "dispossessed": 0.2339, "duels_lost": 3.2168, "aerial_lost": 1.5755, "total_contest": 0.2207, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 1.9925, "challenges_lost": 0.4012, "fouls": 0.8669, "fouls_drawn": 0.5881, "blocks": 0.6132, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "expected_assists": 0.0265, "shots_on_target": 0.2068, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.087, "ball_carries": 6.0429, "total_progression": 18.5367, "progressive_carries": 0.3871, "key_pass": 0.5169, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 34.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1504, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-22", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1278, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "West Ham United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1086, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brighton & 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-0.117648 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.064395 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.030527 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.020384 } ], "others_margin": -0.04291 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.5082926154136658, "model_output": 0.5083, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2493 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0731 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0475 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0414 }, { "name": "challengeLost", "importance": 0.0245 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3878, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7242 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0346 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0302 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0156 } ], "others": -0.0524, "total": 0.5083, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.327722, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.737816 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.053605 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.0492 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.038226 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.027509 } ], "others_margin": -0.098065 } }, { "target": "wonTackle", "predicted": 0.30807289481163025, "model_output": 0.3081, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1966 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0678 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0252 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.8471, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4323 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "contribution": -0.0258 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": -0.0161 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "contribution": -0.0153 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0122 } ], "others": -0.0373, "total": 0.3081, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.165887, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.713899 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "margin": -0.064252 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": -0.042292 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "margin": -0.041766 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.034634 } ], "others_margin": -0.114689 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.608948826789856, "model_output": 1.6089, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2929 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1447 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1031 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0342 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0223 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4227, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1297 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2696 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.1522 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.062 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "contribution": 0.0559 } ], "others": 0.0806, "total": 1.6089, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.230438, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.973452 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.1894 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.102448 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.042998 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAGoal", "margin": 0.037268 } ], "others_margin": 0.051378 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.851036787033081, "model_output": 0.851, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1591 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1548 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0782 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.0406 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0288 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7836 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1646 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0292 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": 0.0243 } ], "others": 0.0051, "total": 0.851, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.844273 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.245827 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.047882 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.036163 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": 0.02915 } ], "others_margin": 0.00597 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2068, "model_output": 0.1972, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.241 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0102 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": -0.0094 } ], "others": -0.0201, "total": 0.1972, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.240986 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.012384 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010228 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.010172 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": -0.009375 } ], "others_margin": -0.020096 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7195868492126465, "model_output": 6.7196, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0208 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0127 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0107 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0358, "total": 6.7196, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.020818 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.012732 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.012702 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.010739 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010258 } ], "others_margin": -0.035788 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0041, quality 0.619)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3612, "tackles": 0.5104, "tackles_won": 0.3093, "clearances": 1.6155, "aerial_won": 0.8545, "total_shots": 0.2076, "rating": 6.7196, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3384, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8705, "fouls_drawn": 0.5905, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2076, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 18800000, "quality_factor": 0.6191, "boost_factor": 1.0041, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 37, "history_shrink": 0.119, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0072)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.361, "tackles": 0.5104, "tackles_won": 0.3071, "clearances": 1.6155, "aerial_won": 0.8545, "total_shots": 0.2074, "rating": 6.7196, "minutes": 21.39, "total_pass": 26.883, "accurate_pass": 21.8343, "duels_won": 3.2236, "total_long_balls": 2.13, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6351, "total_own_half_passes": 15.0775, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13.2505, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5837, "crosses_total": 0.3372, "crosses_accurate": 0.2833, "touches": 40.8062, "possession_lost": 7.6432, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 3.23, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.2216, "won_contest": 0.0005, "ball_recovery": 2.0007, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.8679, "fouls_drawn": 0.5887, "blocks": 0.6157, "goals": 0.0028, "goal_rate": 0.0028, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0262, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "shots_on_target": 0.2061, "big_chances_created": 0.0034, "xgot": 0.0874, "ball_carries": 6.0677, "total_progression": 18.6127, "progressive_carries": 0.3887, "key_pass": 0.519, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0072, "history_matches": 37, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2377, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.4 to 14.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.23)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2412, "tackles": 0.341, "tackles_won": 0.2052, "clearances": 1.0794, "aerial_won": 0.5709, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7196, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 14.29, "projection_minutes": 21.39, "minutes_scale": 0.6681, "appearance_probability": 0.232 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2412, "tackles": 0.341, "tackles_won": 0.2052, "clearances": 1.0794, "aerial_won": 0.5709, "total_shots": 0.1386, "rating": 6.7196, "minutes": 14.29, "total_pass": 17.9618, "accurate_pass": 14.5885, "duels_won": 2.1538, "total_long_balls": 1.4232, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4243, "total_own_half_passes": 10.074, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8533, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.8879, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.7352, "crosses_total": 0.2253, "crosses_accurate": 0.1893, "touches": 27.2645, "possession_lost": 5.1068, "dispossessed": 0.2349, "duels_lost": 2.1581, "aerial_lost": 1.582, "total_contest": 0.1481, "won_contest": 0.0003, "ball_recovery": 1.3368, "challenges_lost": 0.4028, "fouls": 0.5799, "fouls_drawn": 0.3933, "blocks": 0.4114, "goals": 0.0019, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0175, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "shots_on_target": 0.1377, "big_chances_created": 0.0023, "xgot": 0.0584, "ball_carries": 4.0541, "total_progression": 12.436, "progressive_carries": 0.2597, "key_pass": 0.3468, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.232, "bench_expected_minutes": 14.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2412, "tackles": 0.341, "tackles_won": 0.2052, "clearances": 1.0794, "aerial_won": 0.5709, 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"model_output": 0.2461, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2565 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0189 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0179 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.01 } ], "others": -0.0115, "total": 0.2461, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.256471 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.018883 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.017876 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012764 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.009961 } ], 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match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.5256 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.2068 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0627 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0416 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0218 } ], "others": -0.0469, "total": 0.6589, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.525566 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.20683 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.06268 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.041629 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.021823 } ], "others_margin": 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"not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6458, "expected_assists": 0.0562, "assist_rate": 0.0995, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.08, "goal_rate": 0.0855, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.209, "total_shots": 0.6701, "rating": 6.7735, "minutes": 23.11, "total_pass": 26.56, "accurate_pass": 19.2411, "duels_won": 5.4925, "total_long_balls": 1.7329, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1551, "total_own_half_passes": 8.4544, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.1592, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.1056, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.0821, "crosses_total": 5.9958, "crosses_accurate": 1.2759, "touches": 47.3561, "possession_lost": 15.9083, "dispossessed": 0.5395, "duels_lost": 4.7066, "aerial_won": 2.0499, "aerial_lost": 1.2485, "interceptions": 0.9307, "tackles_won": 1.112, "tackles": 1.9364, "clearances": 1.5327, "total_contest": 1.2271, "won_contest": 0.4912, "challenges_lost": 0.7256, "fouls": 1.5125, 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"model_output": 0.2741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1073 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0782, "total": 0.2741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412033 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222619 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.121181 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.088387 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058499 } ], "others_margin": 0.336013 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.43310442566871643, "model_output": 0.4331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.239 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": 0.0286, "total": 0.4331, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.403698 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.239012 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.030679 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3224, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0357, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goals": 0.0753, "goal_rate": 0.0753, "shots_on_target": 0.275, "total_shots": 0.4345, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 11.21, "total_pass": 4.2819, "accurate_pass": 3.2712, "duels_won": 0.4494, "total_long_balls": 0.5812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1741, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3516, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9196, "crosses_total": 0.4019, "crosses_accurate": 0.2512, "touches": 6.8654, "possession_lost": 1.3257, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 0.751, "aerial_won": 0.1353, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.0839, "tackles": 0.1227, "clearances": 0.1047, "total_contest": 0.0753, "won_contest": 0.0753, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2224, "fouls_drawn": 0.1161, "blocks": 0.1971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2756, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 0.9322, "total_progression": 3.5457, "progressive_carries": 0.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.1595 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0032, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3224, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0357, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "shots_on_target": 0.2748, "total_shots": 0.4342, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 11.21, "total_pass": 4.2819, "accurate_pass": 3.2712, "duels_won": 0.4494, "total_long_balls": 0.5812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1741, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3516, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9196, "crosses_total": 0.4016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2512, "touches": 6.8654, "possession_lost": 1.3257, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 0.751, "aerial_won": 0.1353, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0838, "tackles": 0.1227, "clearances": 0.1047, "total_contest": 0.0753, "won_contest": 0.0753, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2222, "fouls_drawn": 0.116, "blocks": 0.1971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2756, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 0.9322, "total_progression": 3.5457, "progressive_carries": 0.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.1595 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1246, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.2 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.1012, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.08, "projection_minutes": 11.21, "minutes_scale": 1.3452, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.1012, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.081, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, 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Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 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"ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, 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1.2353, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 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"weight_share": 0.0422, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Jean-Mattéo Bahoya": { "player_id": 1146148, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 180, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.711, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.711, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.215, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2773, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7326, "team_expected_assists": 0.7898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9512, "xa_scale": 1.0781, "opponent_lambda": 1.566, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.6 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0988, "after": 0.0564 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0315, "after": 0.0204 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.711, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2937, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2511 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0581, "total": 0.3393, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449151 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06537 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.043039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034435 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.0559, "shots_on_target": 0.2106, "total_shots": 0.5779, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3409, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 20.67, "total_pass": 6.636, "accurate_pass": 5.0003, "duels_won": 1.8331, "total_long_balls": 0.2381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1308, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8669, "crosses_total": 0.2159, "crosses_accurate": 0.0357, "touches": 12.4208, "possession_lost": 4.1058, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 2.9451, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.32, "won_contest": 0.1406, "ball_recovery": 1.3815, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.6737, "fouls_drawn": 0.5934, "assists": 0.0682, "assist_rate": 0.0682, "interceptions": 0.189, "tackles_won": 0.4332, "tackles": 0.7079, "clearances": 0.2613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2394, "total_progression": 6.4197, "progressive_carries": 0.2303, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0062)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goals": 0.0556, "goal_rate": 0.0556, "shots_on_target": 0.2103, "total_shots": 0.5753, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3409, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 20.67, "total_pass": 6.636, "accurate_pass": 5.0003, "duels_won": 1.8331, "total_long_balls": 0.2381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1308, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8669, "crosses_total": 0.2146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0357, "touches": 12.4208, "possession_lost": 4.1058, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 2.9451, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.32, "won_contest": 0.1406, "ball_recovery": 1.3815, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.6695, "fouls_drawn": 0.5928, "assists": 0.0678, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.4325, "tackles": 0.7079, "clearances": 0.2613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2394, "total_progression": 6.4197, "progressive_carries": 0.2303, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0062, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2297, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.7 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assists": 0.0858, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.17, "projection_minutes": 20.67, "minutes_scale": 1.2662, "appearance_probability": 0.352 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assists": 0.0858, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.215, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2773, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7326, "team_expected_assists": 0.7898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9512, "xa_scale": 1.0781, "opponent_lambda": 1.566, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.352 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0742, "after": 0.0248 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0439, "after": 0.0167 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0237, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3289, "fifa_rank": 1793.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, 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"integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0237, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0239, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "provider_weight": 0.0209, "squad_weight_total": 0.772, "weight_share": 0.027, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.352, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Sean 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"accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025044, "match_date": "2026-04-22", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.15, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025036, "match_date": "2026-04-18", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Wolverhampton", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1335, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14025024, "match_date": "2026-04-13", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3172, "combined_rank_score": 1140.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 499.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.6835, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 3167 }, { "player_name": "Taty Castellanos", "ranking": 3168 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Castagne", "ranking": 3169 }, { "player_name": "Edson Álvarez", "ranking": 3170 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Trapp", "ranking": 3171 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexandr Golovin", "ranking": 3173 }, { "player_name": "Romain Perraud", "ranking": 3174 }, { "player_name": "Marco Bizot", "ranking": 3175 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 3176 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Teze", "ranking": 3177 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.751, "history_matches": 27, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", 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0.0743 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0437 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "importance": 0.0241 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0911, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0362 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0062 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0043 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0033 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0033 } ], "others": 0.0026, "total": 0.0536, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.395469, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.505852 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.118778 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.093018 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.07241 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.067205 } ], "others_margin": 0.047253 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.07501902431249619, "model_output": 0.075, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0846 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0655 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0399 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0358 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0947, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0368 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0076 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0046 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0045 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0036 } ], "others": 0.012, "total": 0.075, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.357331, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.491868 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.141391 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.088032 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.078624 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.059035 } ], "others_margin": 0.174887 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.2740899920463562, "model_output": 0.2741, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1073 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.042 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0176 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0118 } ], "others": 0.0782, "total": 0.2741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.412033 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.222619 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": 0.121181 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.088387 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.058499 } ], "others_margin": 0.336013 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.43310442566871643, "model_output": 0.4331, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.239 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0307 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0178 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.017 } ], "others": 0.0286, "total": 0.4331, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.403698 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.239012 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.030679 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.017789 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.017033 } ], "others_margin": 0.028583 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.683492660522461, "model_output": 6.6835, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.085 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0577 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0217 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0141 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0132 } ], "others": -0.0354, "total": 6.6835, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.084974 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.057661 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02171 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.014139 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.013247 } ], "others_margin": -0.035556 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0032, quality 0.573)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3224, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0357, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goals": 0.0753, "goal_rate": 0.0753, "shots_on_target": 0.275, "total_shots": 0.4345, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 11.21, "total_pass": 4.2819, "accurate_pass": 3.2712, "duels_won": 0.4494, "total_long_balls": 0.5812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1741, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3516, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9196, "crosses_total": 0.4019, "crosses_accurate": 0.2512, "touches": 6.8654, "possession_lost": 1.3257, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 0.751, "aerial_won": 0.1353, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1405, "tackles_won": 0.0839, "tackles": 0.1227, "clearances": 0.1047, "total_contest": 0.0753, "won_contest": 0.0753, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2224, "fouls_drawn": 0.1161, "blocks": 0.1971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2756, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 0.9322, "total_progression": 3.5457, "progressive_carries": 0.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.1595 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 14400000, "quality_factor": 0.5726, "boost_factor": 1.0032, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 27, "history_shrink": 0.1562, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0007)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3224, "expected_assists": 0.029, "assists": 0.0357, "assist_rate": 0.0357, "expected_goals": 0.0538, "goals": 0.0752, "goal_rate": 0.0752, "shots_on_target": 0.2748, "total_shots": 0.4342, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 11.21, "total_pass": 4.2819, "accurate_pass": 3.2712, "duels_won": 0.4494, "total_long_balls": 0.5812, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1741, "total_own_half_passes": 1.5022, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3516, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7797, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9196, "crosses_total": 0.4016, "crosses_accurate": 0.2512, "touches": 6.8654, "possession_lost": 1.3257, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 0.751, "aerial_won": 0.1353, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1404, "tackles_won": 0.0838, "tackles": 0.1227, "clearances": 0.1047, "total_contest": 0.0753, "won_contest": 0.0753, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2222, "fouls_drawn": 0.116, "blocks": 0.1971, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.2756, "xgot": 0.0901, "ball_carries": 0.9322, "total_progression": 3.5457, "progressive_carries": 0.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.1595 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0007, "history_matches": 27, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1246, "prior_reliability": 0.0067, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 11.2 to 15.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.70)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.1012, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.08, "projection_minutes": 11.21, "minutes_scale": 1.3452, "appearance_probability": 0.703 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assists": 0.048, "assist_rate": 0.048, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goals": 0.1012, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.039, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0724, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.1212, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.081, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2353, "creation_factor": 1.1011 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.215, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2773, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7326, "team_expected_assists": 0.7898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9512, "xa_scale": 1.0781, "opponent_lambda": 1.566, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.703 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0724, "after": 0.0484 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.039, "after": 0.0296 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.081, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2353, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3172, "fifa_rank": 1781.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 0.1013, "won_contest": 0.1013, "challenges_lost": 0.1571, "fouls": 0.2989, "fouls_drawn": 0.156, "blocks": 0.2651, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3707, "xgot": 0.081, "ball_carries": 1.254, "total_progression": 4.7698, "progressive_carries": 0.1106, "shots_off_target": 0.2146, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.703, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.08, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0468, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2353, "creation_factor": 1.1011, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0468, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "scorer_weight": 0.0598, "squad_weight_total": 1.2696, "weight_share": 0.0471, "finishing_factor": 1.2353, "appearance_weight": 0.703, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4337, "expected_assists": 0.0296, "assist_rate": 0.048, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0484, "goal_rate": 0.1012, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3697, "total_shots": 0.5843, "rating": 6.6835, "minutes": 15.08, "total_pass": 5.7601, "accurate_pass": 4.4005, "duels_won": 0.6045, "total_long_balls": 0.7818, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2342, "total_own_half_passes": 2.0208, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.8182, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.7393, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5823, "crosses_total": 0.5402, "crosses_accurate": 0.3379, "touches": 9.2355, "possession_lost": 1.7834, "dispossessed": 0.1645, "duels_lost": 1.0103, "aerial_won": 0.182, "aerial_lost": 0.2071, "interceptions": 0.1889, "tackles_won": 0.1127, "tackles": 0.1651, "clearances": 0.1408, "total_contest": 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0988, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0315, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.711, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.711, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.215, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2773, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7326, "team_expected_assists": 0.7898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9512, "xa_scale": 1.0781, "opponent_lambda": 1.566, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.6 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0988, "after": 0.0564 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0315, "after": 0.0204 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, "total_progression": 22.5155, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.711, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.6, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.21, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1122, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2937, "fifa_rank": 1878.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.1155, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4052, "total_shots": 1.1162, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "key_pass": 0.8226, "rating": 6.6246, "minutes": 26.21, "total_pass": 2.3916, "accurate_pass": 2.3916, "duels_won": 1.4266, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.5525, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.21, "possession_lost": 0.8391, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8391, "aerial_lost": 0.5594, "total_contest": 0.7134, "won_contest": 0.7134, "ball_recovery": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.7134, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.105, 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2511 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.028 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0139 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0138 } ], "others": -0.0581, "total": 0.3393, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.449151 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.06537 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.043039 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034435 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0047, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goals": 0.0559, "goal_rate": 0.0559, "shots_on_target": 0.2106, "total_shots": 0.5779, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3409, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 20.67, "total_pass": 6.636, "accurate_pass": 5.0003, "duels_won": 1.8331, "total_long_balls": 0.2381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1308, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8669, "crosses_total": 0.2159, "crosses_accurate": 0.0357, "touches": 12.4208, "possession_lost": 4.1058, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 2.9451, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.32, "won_contest": 0.1406, "ball_recovery": 1.3815, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.6737, "fouls_drawn": 0.5934, "assists": 0.0682, "assist_rate": 0.0682, "interceptions": 0.189, "tackles_won": 0.4332, "tackles": 0.7079, "clearances": 0.2613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2394, "total_progression": 6.4197, "progressive_carries": 0.2303, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 23000000, "quality_factor": 0.6595, "boost_factor": 1.0047, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 44, "history_shrink": 0.102, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0062)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0586, "goals": 0.0556, "goal_rate": 0.0556, "shots_on_target": 0.2103, "total_shots": 0.5753, "expected_assists": 0.0347, "key_pass": 0.3409, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 20.67, "total_pass": 6.636, "accurate_pass": 5.0003, "duels_won": 1.8331, "total_long_balls": 0.2381, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1308, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.0505, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.8669, "crosses_total": 0.2146, "crosses_accurate": 0.0357, "touches": 12.4208, "possession_lost": 4.1058, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 2.9451, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.32, "won_contest": 0.1406, "ball_recovery": 1.3815, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.6695, "fouls_drawn": 0.5928, "assists": 0.0678, "assist_rate": 0.0678, "interceptions": 0.1878, "tackles_won": 0.4325, "tackles": 0.7079, "clearances": 0.2613, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0357, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0558, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.2394, "total_progression": 6.4197, "progressive_carries": 0.2303, "shots_off_target": 0.3673 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0062, "history_matches": 44, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2297, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Leeds United" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.7 to 26.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.35)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assists": 0.0858, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 26.17, "projection_minutes": 20.67, "minutes_scale": 1.2662, "appearance_probability": 0.352 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goals": 0.0704, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assists": 0.0858, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0742, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0439, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0707, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.22 (squad xG sum 1.2773, xG scale 0.9512, xA scale 1.0781, team xA 0.79 = 0.65 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0237, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.215, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2773, "squad_xa_sum": 0.7326, "team_expected_assists": 0.7898, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.65, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 0.9512, "xa_scale": 1.0781, "opponent_lambda": 1.566, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.352 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0742, "after": 0.0248 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0439, "after": 0.0167 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 76.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0237, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3289, "fifa_rank": 1793.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 76.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0237, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0239, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0239, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "scorer_weight": 0.024, "squad_weight_total": 1.2696, "weight_share": 0.0189, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "appearance_weight": 0.352, "weight_rank": 13, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0248, "goal_rate": 0.0704, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2663, "total_shots": 0.7314, "expected_assists": 0.0167, "key_pass": 0.4316, "rating": 6.6061, "minutes": 26.17, "total_pass": 8.4023, "accurate_pass": 6.3312, "duels_won": 2.321, "total_long_balls": 0.3015, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1656, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.1286, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.63, "crosses_total": 0.2717, "crosses_accurate": 0.0452, "touches": 15.7268, "possession_lost": 5.1986, "dispossessed": 0.3885, "duels_lost": 3.729, "aerial_lost": 0.9529, "total_contest": 0.4052, "won_contest": 0.178, "ball_recovery": 1.7492, "challenges_lost": 0.831, "fouls": 0.8477, "fouls_drawn": 0.7506, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2378, "tackles_won": 0.5476, "tackles": 0.8963, "clearances": 0.3308, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0452, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0237, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8355, "total_progression": 8.1284, "progressive_carries": 0.2916, "shots_off_target": 0.4651, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.352, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.17, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.217, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0239, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 0.9694, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0858, "provider_weight": 0.0209, "squad_weight_total": 0.772, "weight_share": 0.027, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.352, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.22, "expected_assists": 0.79, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 395, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.9, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "James Justin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "xg_contribution": 0.177, "xg_multiplier": 0.9415, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (LW) is evenly matched against James Justin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.177 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.304, "xg_contribution": 0.375, "xg_multiplier": 1.1525, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.696 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (ST) is slightly favored against James Justin and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €14M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.375 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Marcus Tavernier", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.207, "xg_contribution": 0.3592, "xg_multiplier": 1.0096, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.793 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Tavernier (ST) is evenly matched against James Justin and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.359 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.565, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.239, "xg_contribution": 0.3622, "xg_multiplier": 1.0569, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Justin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 11000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) is evenly matched against James Justin and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€33M vs €14M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.06 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.362 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "António Silva", "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3436, "xg_multiplier": 0.9427, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (ST) is evenly matched against António Silva and James Hill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.344 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Harry Wilson", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Tyler Adams", "António Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.728, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.1108, "xg_multiplier": 0.8808, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 }, { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Wilson (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Tyler Adams and António Silva in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.88 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Tyler Adams", "António Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.728, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.274, "xg_contribution": 0.1709, "xg_multiplier": 1.0066, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.726 }, { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.726 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (SS) is evenly matched against Tyler Adams and António Silva in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jayden Bogle", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "xg_contribution": 0.1269, "xg_multiplier": 0.9351, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "RB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jayden Bogle (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.127 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ao Tanaka", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 16200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.592, "defenders": [ "Adam Smith" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.1072, "xg_multiplier": 1.1478, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "LB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ao Tanaka (RWB) is slightly favored against Adam Smith in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €0M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.107 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Tyler Adams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.0399, "xg_multiplier": 1.0419, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) is evenly matched against Tyler Adams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.04 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.040 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Tyler Adams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.0409, "xg_multiplier": 1.001, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Gudmundsson (CM) is evenly matched against Tyler Adams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.633, "away_midfield_power": 0.685, "home_creative_power": 0.605, "away_creative_power": 0.561, "home_defensive_power": 0.523, "away_defensive_power": 0.561, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.48, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Justin Kluivert", "Tyler Adams", "Ryan Christie" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jayden Bogle", "Ethan Ampadu", "Ao Tanaka", "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Tyler Adams vs Ethan Ampadu", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.998, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.007 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.566, "away_lambda": 1.215, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marcus Tavernier": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "James Justin", "Nico Elvedi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Harry Wilson", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson", "Noah Okafor", "Ethan Ampadu", "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adam Smith": { "opponents": [ "Ao Tanaka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Christie": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor", "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "James Justin": { "opponents": [ "Justin Kluivert", "Rayan", "Marcus Tavernier", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico Elvedi": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Marcus Tavernier", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "António Silva", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harry Wilson": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams", "António Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams", "António Silva" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jayden Bogle": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ao Tanaka": { "opponents": [ "Adam Smith", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams", "Ryan Christie" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Tyler Adams vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.27, Away: 0.94. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0628, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.118, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9384, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9184, "home_midfield_factor": 0.998, "away_midfield_factor": 1.007, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6821, "away_avg_quality": 0.668, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0141, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.102, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1292, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0063, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0244, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 1.2734, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.3317 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.998, "result": 1.329 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.3955 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.813 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9327, "result": 1.691 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 1.4785 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9384, "result": 1.3875 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0628, "result": 1.4503 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.4503, "result": 1.4503, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0244, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.4503, "result": 1.4503 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.4503 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.67 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 0.6897, "result": 1.4818 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.4818, "result": 1.482, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.482 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9833, "pre": 1.482, "result": 1.4573, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.457 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.457 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.457, "result": 1.457, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.097, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.566 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9402, "n_duels": 7, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0676 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.007, "result": 1.0751 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 1.0214 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0214 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.9967, "result": 1.018 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8989, "result": 0.9151 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9184, "result": 0.8404 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.118, "result": 0.9584 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.9584, "result": 0.9584, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0244, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 0.9584, "result": 0.9584 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9584 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1883, "result": 1.1463 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 0.6897, "result": 1.0586 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.0586, "result": 1.059, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.059 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0167, "pre": 1.059, "result": 1.0767, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.077 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.077 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.077, "result": 1.077, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 1.097, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.215 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1883, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Leeds United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.457, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.077, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.4818, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0586, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.097, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.566, "final_away_lambda": 1.215 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9327, "attack_index": 1.032, "defense_concede_index": 0.816, "form_multiplier": 0.991, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.43, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.13, "team_ppg": 1.22, "opponent_ppg": 1.37 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9967, "attack_index": 0.924, "defense_concede_index": 1.068, "form_multiplier": 1.009, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.28, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.48, "team_ppg": 1.37, "opponent_ppg": 1.22 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Bournemouth vs Leeds. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.482, Away 1.059). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.566, Away 1.215 (most likely score 1-0).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 10, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Bournemouth", "away_squad": "Leeds United", "home_goals_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "away_goals_per90": 1.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.0, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.69, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.566, "away_lambda": 1.215, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.482, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.059 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.097, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:30:52Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }