{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Málaga", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1173, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-0", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.1173, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "0-1", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.0416, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Betis", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1914, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1173 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1085 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0974 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0909 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0842 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.051, "0-1": 0.0416, "0-2": 0.0175, "0-3": 0.0048, "0-4": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1085, "1-1": 0.0909, "1-2": 0.0376, "1-3": 0.0104, "1-4": 0.0022, "2-0": 0.1173, "2-1": 0.0974, "2-2": 0.0405, "2-3": 0.0112, "2-4": 0.0023, "3-0": 0.0842, "3-1": 0.0699, "3-2": 0.0291, "3-3": 0.008, "3-4": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0453, "4-1": 0.0376, "4-2": 0.0156, "4-3": 0.0043, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0195, "5-1": 0.0162, "5-2": 0.0067, "5-3": 0.0019, "6-0": 0.007, "6-1": 0.0058, "6-2": 0.0024, "6-3": 0.0007, "7-0": 0.0022, "7-1": 0.0018, "7-2": 0.0007, "8-0": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.6766, "draw": 0.1914, "away_win": 0.1319 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5732, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4268, "btts_yes": 0.4992, "btts_no": 0.5008, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4356, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1161 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 7.06, "ATR": 7.0, "GK": 7.07 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.79, "MCR": 6.92, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 7.04 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Málaga. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Real Betis 6W-0D-4L vs Málaga over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Troy Parrott", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Fornals vs Dani Lorenzo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 2.153, "away_lambda": 0.831, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 6, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 0, "home_multiplier": 1.0143, "away_multiplier": 0.9857 }, "modal_scoreline": "2-0", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.1173, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.6766, "draw": 0.1914, "away_win": 0.1319 }, "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6766, "fair_spread": 1.322, "fair_total": 2.984, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 2.153, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 0.831, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5732, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4992, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4356, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1161, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.6112, "probability": 0.4573, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Adrián Niño (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.3014, "probability": 0.2602, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.3125, "probability": 0.2684, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.2174, "probability": 0.1954, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.984, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 889, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.1, "possession_home_pct": 50.4, "possession_away_pct": 49.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6766, "script": "Real Betis is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.32 goals and fair total 2.98.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Málaga must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Betis lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Betis chance creation leans on Abdessamad Ezzalzouli against Einar Galilea, Fernando Calero in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Troy Parrott; bench watchlist: Cucho Hernández, Nelson Deossa.", "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Chupete, Jens-Lys Cajuste, Joaquín Muñoz.", "Assist usage should flow through Abdessamad Ezzalzouli; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Betis tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.49 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Málaga is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Betis.", "Málaga wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Betis": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Fran García": { "player_id": 851271, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 170, "market_value": 6900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 37, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 65, "possession_lost": 10.9467, "dispossessed": 0.6187, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0189, "expected_assists": 0.0806, "shots_on_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0141, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 79, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "opponent_faced": "David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0187, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0774, "finishing_factor": 0.8104, "creation_factor": 0.8467, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0266, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "expected_assists": 0.0858, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0205, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416333, "match_date": "2026-09-14", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416315, "match_date": "2026-09-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0178, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416309, "match_date": "2026-08-29", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2033, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 57, "accurate_pass": 50, "key_pass": 1, 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Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.058, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 11 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 37, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083562, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0818, "expected_assists": 0.0093, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 29, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3196, "combined_rank_score": 1155.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 745.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1565.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7175, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fran García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samson Baidoo", "ranking": 3191 }, { "player_name": "Guéla Doué", "ranking": 3192 }, { "player_name": "Amar Dedić", "ranking": 3193 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Harwood-Bellis", "ranking": 3194 }, { "player_name": "Saïd El Mala", "ranking": 3195 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rômulo", "ranking": 3197 }, { "player_name": "David Zima", "ranking": 3198 }, { "player_name": "Juan Iglesias", "ranking": 3199 }, { "player_name": "Thierno Barry", "ranking": 3200 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Palacios", "ranking": 3201 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.774, "history_matches": 21, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 21, "data_confidence": 0.774, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "market_value_adjustment": 0.9989, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Real Betis", "competition": "La Liga", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 3.0, "starts": 2.0, "minutes": 212.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.4166666666666667, "shots_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.16 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (D_service) evaluated 21 historical appearances across 7 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (La Liga, Real Betis, rel: 0.16, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.4166666666666667)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1616, "tackles": 2.2404, "tackles_won": 1.6384, "clearances": 2.3175, "aerial_won": 0.6706, "total_shots": 0.4131, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 88.76, "total_pass": 42.708, "accurate_pass": 37.3115, "duels_won": 4.6119, "total_long_balls": 2.7926, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2523, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6279, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.489, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0801, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8224, "crosses_total": 2.6562, "crosses_accurate": 0.3467, "touches": 65.1652, "possession_lost": 10.9588, "dispossessed": 0.6194, "duels_lost": 4.1028, "aerial_lost": 1.0469, "total_contest": 0.6672, "won_contest": 0.5348, "ball_recovery": 3.8899, "challenges_lost": 1.6226, "fouls": 0.701, "fouls_drawn": 0.9679, "blocks": 0.2514, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0268, "assist_rate": 0.0268, "expected_goals": 0.0117, "expected_assists": 0.0499, "shots_on_target": 0.0228, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 16.4078, "total_progression": 78.9851, "progressive_carries": 1.9597, "key_pass": 0.5539, "shots_off_target": 0.3903 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "D", "schema_version": 6, "trained_at": "2026-10-31T10:29:25.210665+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1439, "players": 626, "rows": 22004 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1551, "rating": 5.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-11", "opponent": "Osasuna", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1318, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-20", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1121, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0953, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.081, "rating": 7.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", 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"contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": -0.0157, "total": 0.4131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.111572 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.052878 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017889 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.013796 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.01154 } ], "others_margin": -0.015703 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7175445556640625, "model_output": 6.7175, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0139 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0124 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0089 } ], "others": -0.0406, "total": 6.7175, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.013908 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012425 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.01159 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010107 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.008877 } ], "others_margin": -0.040522 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 21, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9989, quality 0.485)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1603, "tackles": 2.238, "tackles_won": 1.6366, "clearances": 2.315, "aerial_won": 0.6699, "total_shots": 0.4127, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 88.76, "total_pass": 42.661, "accurate_pass": 37.2705, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 2.7895, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2509, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6063, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4698, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8006, "crosses_total": 2.6533, "crosses_accurate": 0.3463, "touches": 65.0935, "possession_lost": 10.9467, "dispossessed": 0.6187, "duels_lost": 4.0983, "aerial_lost": 1.0457, "total_contest": 0.6665, "won_contest": 0.5342, "ball_recovery": 3.8856, "challenges_lost": 1.6208, "fouls": 0.7002, "fouls_drawn": 0.9668, "blocks": 0.2511, "goals": 0.0, 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"scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1617, "tackles": 2.238, "tackles_won": 1.6285, "clearances": 2.315, "aerial_won": 0.6699, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7175, "minutes": 88.76, "total_pass": 42.661, "accurate_pass": 37.2705, "duels_won": 4.6068, "total_long_balls": 2.7895, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2509, "total_own_half_passes": 19.6063, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4698, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.0547, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.8006, "crosses_total": 2.6906, "crosses_accurate": 0.3463, "touches": 65.0935, "possession_lost": 10.9467, "dispossessed": 0.6187, "duels_lost": 4.0983, "aerial_lost": 1.0457, "total_contest": 0.6665, "won_contest": 0.5342, "ball_recovery": 3.8856, "challenges_lost": 1.6208, "fouls": 0.7026, "fouls_drawn": 0.9639, "blocks": 0.2511, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0345, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0117, "expected_assists": 0.0498, "shots_on_target": 0.0223, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0087, "ball_carries": 16.3898, "total_progression": 78.8982, "progressive_carries": 1.9575, "key_pass": 0.5533, "shots_off_target": 0.3899, "opponent_faced": "David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1617, "tackles": 2.238, "tackles_won": 1.6285, "clearances": 2.315, "aerial_won": 0.6699, "total_shots": 0.4122, "rating": 6.7175, 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"interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0336 } ], "others": -0.1533, "total": 0.5708, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.253281 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.117727 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.046796 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.041631 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.033624 } ], "others_margin": -0.15335 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.017166614532471, "model_output": 7.0172, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0898 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0338 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0238 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0136 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0128 } ], "others": 0.013, "total": 7.0172, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.033845 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.023756 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.013627 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.012815 } ], "others_margin": 0.012976 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 30, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101823 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.080803 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.053233 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03977 } ], "others_margin": -0.081981 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.28267112374305725, "model_output": 0.2827, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1146 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0753 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0297 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3177, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0626 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0401 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0363 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": -0.0337 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": -0.0149 } ], "others": -0.0452, "total": 0.2827, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.179983 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.111463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.101292 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": -0.093878 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": -0.04449 } ], "others_margin": -0.148184 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.130327820777893, "model_output": 1.1303, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.141 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0913 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0274 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0202 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0189 } ], "others": -0.0576, "total": 1.1303, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.140955 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.091329 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.02736 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.020238 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.018877 } ], "others_margin": -0.057687 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.0892534255981445, "model_output": 7.0893, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.1015 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0371 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0242 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "contribution": 0.0187 } ], "others": 0.0315, "total": 7.0893, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.101478 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.037124 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.024223 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.020302 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "margin": 0.018665 } ], "others_margin": 0.031456 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 46, "role_matches": 41, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0000, quality 0.503)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5092, "expected_assists": 0.1803, "assists": 0.1066, "assist_rate": 0.1066, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0952, "goal_rate": 0.0952, "shots_on_target": 0.2827, "total_shots": 1.1304, "rating": 7.0893, "minutes": 79.56, "total_pass": 51.0532, "accurate_pass": 44.8146, "duels_won": 2.4797, "total_long_balls": 3.0945, "accurate_long_balls": 1.575, "total_own_half_passes": 18.6475, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.2043, "total_opp_half_passes": 32.4057, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 27.6104, "crosses_total": 2.7633, "crosses_accurate": 0.8397, "touches": 63.0475, "possession_lost": 10.2428, "dispossessed": 0.4278, "duels_lost": 3.2223, "aerial_won": 0.3125, "aerial_lost": 0.8737, "interceptions": 0.6804, "tackles_won": 0.479, "tackles": 0.6913, "clearances": 0.2372, "total_contest": 1.162, "won_contest": 0.6764, "challenges_lost": 0.7007, "fouls": 0.9261, "fouls_drawn": 0.8037, "blocks": 0.0161, "big_chances_created": 0.4285, "big_chances_missed": 0.0147, "xgot": 0.053, "ball_carries": 20.0253, "total_progression": 41.755, "progressive_carries": 0.6279, "shots_off_target": 0.8477 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 8400000, "quality_factor": 0.5035, "boost_factor": 1.0, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 46, "history_shrink": 0.098, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0093)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.5092, "expected_assists": 0.1803, "assists": 0.1056, "assist_rate": 0.1056, "expected_goals": 0.0744, "goals": 0.0943, "goal_rate": 0.0943, "shots_on_target": 0.2801, "total_shots": 1.1419, "rating": 7.0893, "minutes": 79.56, "total_pass": 51.0532, "accurate_pass": 44.8146, "duels_won": 2.4797, "total_long_balls": 3.0945, "accurate_long_balls": 1.575, 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"contribution": 0.1038 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "contribution": -0.058 } ], "others": 0.167, "total": 1.3561, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.247438 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.129434 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.122499 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.086906 }, { "name": "aerial_dominance", "margin": -0.047642 } ], "others_margin": 0.131459 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.129189968109131, "model_output": 7.1292, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0695 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0084, quality 0.764)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1624, "goals": 0.2082, "goal_rate": 0.2082, "shots_on_target": 0.9028, "total_shots": 2.4151, "expected_assists": 0.1197, "key_pass": 1.3675, "rating": 7.1292, "minutes": 77.0, "total_pass": 42.9996, "accurate_pass": 36.6185, "duels_won": 3.9745, "total_long_balls": 2.0999, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3913, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.46, "crosses_total": 1.5948, "crosses_accurate": 0.3272, "touches": 58.6723, "possession_lost": 11.2691, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.8846, "aerial_lost": 0.2189, "total_contest": 1.8844, "won_contest": 1.0283, "ball_recovery": 3.465, "challenges_lost": 0.4291, "fouls": 0.839, "fouls_drawn": 1.2882, "assists": 0.0452, "assist_rate": 0.0452, "interceptions": 0.6171, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3033, "goal_rate": 0.237, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1.0507, "total_shots": 2.8184, "expected_assists": 0.1936, "key_pass": 1.3675, "rating": 7.1292, "minutes": 77.0, "total_pass": 42.9996, "accurate_pass": 36.6185, "duels_won": 3.9745, "total_long_balls": 2.0999, "accurate_long_balls": 1.3913, "total_opp_half_passes": 31.3874, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 26.46, "crosses_total": 1.6085, "crosses_accurate": 0.3272, "touches": 58.6723, "possession_lost": 11.2691, "dispossessed": 0.705, "duels_lost": 2.8846, "aerial_lost": 0.2189, "total_contest": 1.8844, "won_contest": 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"finishing_factor": 1.2084, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.153, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3311, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9447, "team_expected_assists": 1.528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7097, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6175, "xa_scale": 1.6175, "opponent_lambda": 0.831, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1875, "after": 0.3033 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1197, "after": 0.1936 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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}, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.056101 }, { "name": "big_chance_conversion", "margin": -0.03017 } ], "others_margin": 0.169322 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_shots": 2.6708, "expected_assists": 0.1931, "key_pass": 1.5679, "rating": 7.1726, "minutes": 84.38, "total_pass": 31.392, "accurate_pass": 25.8766, "duels_won": 5.1309, "total_long_balls": 1.1468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8107, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9108, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.8133, "crosses_total": 1.401, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 51.583, "possession_lost": 13.5854, "dispossessed": 1.598, "duels_lost": 5.3321, "aerial_lost": 0.7856, "total_contest": 3.1505, "won_contest": 1.1648, "ball_recovery": 3.1199, "challenges_lost": 0.3753, "fouls": 0.891, "fouls_drawn": 1.7838, "assists": 0.0952, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "interceptions": 0.2154, "tackles_won": 0.9857, "tackles": 1.5607, "clearances": 0.5402, "blocks": 0.0255, "big_chances_created": 0.158, "big_chances_missed": 0.1936, "xgot": 0.5244, "offsides": 0.1852, "ball_carries": 18.5175, "total_progression": 127.0684, "progressive_carries": 5.3352, "shots_off_target": 1.3059, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2046, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Einar Galilea, Fernando Calero", "opponent_faced": "Einar Galilea, Fernando Calero", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Einar Galilea, Fernando Calero", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 1.2046, "skill_edge": 0.1612, "height_edge": -0.022, "attacker_skill": 0.7957, "defender_skill": 0.4374, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "market_value": 365000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.4374 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1.5679, "rating": 7.1726, "minutes": 84.38, "total_pass": 31.392, "accurate_pass": 25.8766, "duels_won": 5.1309, "total_long_balls": 1.1468, "accurate_long_balls": 0.8107, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.9108, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.8133, "crosses_total": 1.401, "crosses_accurate": 0.2249, "touches": 51.583, "possession_lost": 13.5854, "dispossessed": 1.598, "duels_lost": 5.3321, "aerial_lost": 0.7856, "total_contest": 3.1505, "won_contest": 1.1648, "ball_recovery": 3.1199, "challenges_lost": 0.3753, "fouls": 0.891, "fouls_drawn": 1.7838, "assist_rate": 0.0952, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2154, "tackles_won": 0.9857, "tackles": 1.5607, "clearances": 0.5402, "blocks": 0.0255, "big_chances_created": 0.158, "big_chances_missed": 0.1936, "xgot": 0.5244, "offsides": 0.1852, "ball_carries": 18.5175, "total_progression": 127.0684, "progressive_carries": 5.3352, "shots_off_target": 1.3059, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.2046, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, 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], "others_margin": -0.063226 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.5897925496101379, "model_output": 0.5898, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0288 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0231 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0188 } ], "others": 0.0032, "total": 0.5898, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.059039 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.028775 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.023113 }, { "name": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0074, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8995, "tackles": 1.2512, "tackles_won": 0.709, "clearances": 5.1674, "aerial_won": 1.9072, "total_shots": 0.5942, "rating": 6.9245, "minutes": 89.25, "total_pass": 55.3476, "accurate_pass": 50.9704, "duels_won": 3.764, "total_long_balls": 4.1227, "accurate_long_balls": 1.7815, "total_own_half_passes": 37.6674, "accurate_own_half_passes": 35.7356, "total_opp_half_passes": 17.6802, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2348, "crosses_total": 0.0005, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 68.2391, "possession_lost": 5.0559, "dispossessed": 0.2082, "duels_lost": 1.8803, "aerial_lost": 0.9742, "total_contest": 0.2044, "won_contest": 0.1683, "ball_recovery": 2.9969, "challenges_lost": 0.278, "fouls": 0.3838, "fouls_drawn": 0.6377, "blocks": 0.9756, "goals": 0.0793, 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"contribution": -0.1105 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0243 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.021 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0179 } ], "others": -0.033, "total": 0.4132, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.110475 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04923 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.024292 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.021001 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017906 } ], "others_margin": -0.032984 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.809128761291504, "model_output": 6.8091, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0106 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0103 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.009 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": 0.0276, "total": 6.8091, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011691 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.010614 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010338 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008969 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.007924 } ], "others_margin": 0.027659 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 23, "role_matches": 19, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9964, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1667, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7537, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4118, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1722, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9624, "fouls_drawn": 0.578, "blocks": 0.8091, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.1003, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 2600000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9964, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 23, "history_shrink": 0.1786, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0077)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4086, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0077, "history_matches": 23, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8962, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 1.1667, "after": 1.1924 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.7537, "after": 0.7479 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4109, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": true } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4109, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4109, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0135, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4109, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0511, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9363 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.153, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3311, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9447, "team_expected_assists": 1.528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7097, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6175, "xa_scale": 1.6175, "opponent_lambda": 0.831, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0135, "after": 0.0218 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 8 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4109, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0511, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9363, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1326, "fifa_rank": 952.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4109, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0511, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0216, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9363, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0216, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0174, "squad_weight_total": 2.2809, "weight_share": 0.0076, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6492, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4679 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Troy Parrott", "weight": 0.4679, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4679, "runner_up": "Antony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.1924, "tackles": 1.2545, "tackles_won": 0.7479, "clearances": 5.4494, "aerial_won": 1.6821, "total_shots": 0.4109, "rating": 6.8091, "minutes": 80.66, "total_pass": 41.435, "accurate_pass": 37.6718, "duels_won": 3.4262, "total_long_balls": 3.4352, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4627, "total_own_half_passes": 30.8641, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29.1042, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.5709, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.5675, "crosses_total": 0.1709, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.6723, "possession_lost": 4.3795, "dispossessed": 0.0339, "duels_lost": 2.0742, "aerial_lost": 0.8633, "total_contest": 0.0811, "won_contest": 0.0694, "ball_recovery": 2.361, "challenges_lost": 0.3371, "fouls": 0.9619, "fouls_drawn": 0.5735, "blocks": 0.8091, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "shots_on_target": 0.0995, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0511, "ball_carries": 13.8464, "total_progression": 42.8498, "progressive_carries": 0.227, "key_pass": 0.1566, "shots_off_target": 0.3114, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0216, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0055, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.9363, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0055, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0051, "squad_weight_total": 1.2992, "weight_share": 0.004, "creation_factor": 0.9363, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.25, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.25, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2333 } ] } } ] }, "Angel Ortiz": { "player_id": 1152139, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 167, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 73, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 9.9658, "dispossessed": 0.9558, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9984, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8756, "tackles": 2.4063, "tackles_won": 1.6247, "clearances": 1.8369, "aerial_won": 0.6221, "total_shots": 0.4321, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 73.42, "total_pass": 35.2786, "accurate_pass": 31.0284, "duels_won": 5.0483, "total_long_balls": 2.2444, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6439, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6603, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3681, "crosses_total": 1.9026, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 56.109, "possession_lost": 9.9658, "dispossessed": 0.9558, "duels_lost": 4.7965, "aerial_lost": 1.0002, "total_contest": 1.5525, "won_contest": 0.5887, "ball_recovery": 3.4636, "challenges_lost": 0.8425, "fouls": 1.1169, "fouls_drawn": 0.6816, "blocks": 0.7249, "goals": 0.0, 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"blocks": 0.7249, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0508, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0475, "total_progression": 28.998, "progressive_carries": 0.606, "key_pass": 0.6451, "shots_off_target": 0.4321 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8687, "tackles": 2.4063, "tackles_won": 1.628, "clearances": 1.8369, "aerial_won": 0.6221, "total_shots": 0.437, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 73.42, "total_pass": 35.2786, "accurate_pass": 31.0284, "duels_won": 5.0483, "total_long_balls": 2.2444, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6439, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6603, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3681, 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"antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ramón Enríquez", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8687, "tackles": 2.4063, "tackles_won": 1.628, "clearances": 1.8369, "aerial_won": 0.6221, "total_shots": 0.437, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 73.42, "total_pass": 35.2786, "accurate_pass": 31.0284, "duels_won": 5.0483, "total_long_balls": 2.2444, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6439, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6603, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3681, "crosses_total": 1.8876, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 56.109, "possession_lost": 9.9658, "dispossessed": 0.9558, "duels_lost": 4.7965, "aerial_lost": 1.0002, "total_contest": 1.5525, "won_contest": 0.5887, "ball_recovery": 3.4636, "challenges_lost": 0.8425, "fouls": 1.1161, "fouls_drawn": 0.6762, "blocks": 0.7249, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0099, "expected_assists": 0.0553, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0508, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0475, "total_progression": 28.998, "progressive_carries": 0.606, "key_pass": 0.6451, "shots_off_target": 0.4321, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Enríquez", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8687, "tackles": 2.4063, "tackles_won": 1.628, "clearances": 1.8369, "aerial_won": 0.6221, "total_shots": 0.437, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 73.42, "total_pass": 35.2786, "accurate_pass": 31.0284, "duels_won": 5.0483, "total_long_balls": 2.2444, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6439, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6603, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3681, "crosses_total": 1.8876, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 56.109, "possession_lost": 9.9658, "dispossessed": 0.9558, "duels_lost": 4.7965, "aerial_lost": 1.0002, "total_contest": 1.5525, "won_contest": 0.5887, "ball_recovery": 3.4636, "challenges_lost": 0.8425, "fouls": 1.1161, "fouls_drawn": 0.6762, "blocks": 0.7249, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0508, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0475, "total_progression": 28.998, "progressive_carries": 0.606, "key_pass": 0.6451, "shots_off_target": 0.4321, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Enríquez", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8347, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.153, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3311, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9447, "team_expected_assists": 1.528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7097, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6175, "xa_scale": 1.6175, "opponent_lambda": 0.831, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0099, "after": 0.016 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0553, "after": 0.0894 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 70.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8687, "tackles": 2.4063, "tackles_won": 1.628, "clearances": 1.8369, "aerial_won": 0.6221, "total_shots": 0.437, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 73.42, "total_pass": 35.2786, "accurate_pass": 31.0284, "duels_won": 5.0483, "total_long_balls": 2.2444, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6439, "total_own_half_passes": 16.8455, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.6603, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.4331, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.3681, "crosses_total": 1.8876, "crosses_accurate": 0.2637, "touches": 56.109, "possession_lost": 9.9658, "dispossessed": 0.9558, "duels_lost": 4.7965, "aerial_lost": 1.0002, "total_contest": 1.5525, "won_contest": 0.5887, "ball_recovery": 3.4636, "challenges_lost": 0.8425, "fouls": 1.1161, "fouls_drawn": 0.6762, "blocks": 0.7249, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 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0.6762, "blocks": 0.7249, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.016, "expected_assists": 0.0894, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0508, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.0475, "total_progression": 28.998, "progressive_carries": 0.606, "key_pass": 0.6451, "shots_off_target": 0.4321, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611, "opponent_faced": "Ramón Enríquez", "pressing_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8347, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0159, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 2.2809, "weight_share": 0.0059, "finishing_factor": 0.8347, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6492, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4679 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Troy Parrott", "weight": 0.4679, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4679, "runner_up": "Antony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8687, "tackles": 2.4063, "tackles_won": 1.628, "clearances": 1.8369, "aerial_won": 0.6221, "total_shots": 0.437, "rating": 6.7508, "minutes": 73.42, "total_pass": 35.2786, "accurate_pass": 31.0284, "duels_won": 5.0483, 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"player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 2148 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.78, "history_matches": 38, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], 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"minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0923, "rating": 8.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-17", "opponent": "Getafe", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-14", "opponent": "Villarreal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 9.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-04", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 10.0 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-29", "opponent": "Levante UD", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 7.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-25", "opponent": "Valencia", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 8.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-21", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.7 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.8609, "goalkeeperValueNormalized": 0.4881, "goodHighClaim": 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"total": -0.0043, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023525, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.027712 }, { "name": "goalsPrevented", "margin": 0.021746 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": 0.018806 }, { "name": "accurateLongBalls", "margin": 0.018132 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "margin": -0.016364 } ], "others_margin": 0.00462 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.073728561401367, "model_output": 7.0737, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0401 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0389 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0374 }, { "name": "touches", "importance": 0.0351 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0339 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9898, "items": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "contribution": 0.044 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0425 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0211 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "contribution": 0.0195 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0155 } ], "others": 0.0263, "total": 7.0737, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.989751, "item_margins": [ { "name": "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "margin": 0.044026 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.042472 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021128 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "margin": 0.019524 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.015522 } ], "others_margin": 0.026251 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 38, "role_matches": 38, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0003, quality 0.514)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2092, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0264, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9300000, "quality_factor": 0.5142, "boost_factor": 1.0003, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 38, "history_shrink": 0.1163, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0151)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2111, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0151, "history_matches": 38, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.2, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.2111, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2111, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7182, "shots_faced": 6.8, "expected_saves": 1.66, "high_pressure_saves": 0.57, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 0.7182 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.2111, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7182, "shots_faced": 6.8, "expected_saves": 1.66, "high_pressure_saves": 0.57, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2111, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7182, "shots_faced": 7.9, "expected_saves": 1.93, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.153, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3311, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9447, "team_expected_assists": 1.528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7097, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6175, "xa_scale": 1.6175, "opponent_lambda": 0.831, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 6.8, "after": 7.9 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 1.66, "after": 1.93 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 0.57, "after": 0.66 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 4 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2111, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7182, "shots_faced": 7.9, "expected_saves": 1.93, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2143, "fifa_rank": 1567.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2111, "goals_prevented": -0.0043, "rating": 7.0737, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.934, "accurate_pass": 20.93, "total_long_balls": 13.1969, "accurate_long_balls": 6.309, "touches": 40.7659, "clearances": 1.1683, "ball_recovery": 8.3025, "high_claims": 1.0129, "punches": 0.6052, "aerial_won": 0.6479, "sweeper_actions": 0.9005, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8611, "saves_inside_box": 3.168, "possession_lost": 7.3502, "duels_won": 0.8815, "duels_lost": 0.1839, "total_contest": 0.0788, "won_contest": 0.0788, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.026, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2931, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.9857, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 0.7182, "shots_faced": 7.9, "expected_saves": 1.93, "high_pressure_saves": 0.66, "opponent_faced": "Adrián Niño, David Larrubia", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, 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0.109, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3128, "combined_rank_score": 1089.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1974.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Diego Conde", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mykola 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"contribution": -0.0189 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": 0.0104 } ], "others": -0.0442, "total": 0.1613, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.20574 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.080334 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.019906 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.018947 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": 0.010401 } ], "others_margin": -0.044072 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.803484916687012, "model_output": 6.8035, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0117 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { 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"totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0111 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0364, "total": 6.771, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.04109 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.017947 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.011145 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.011118 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.009231 } ], "others_margin": -0.036365 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 27, "role_matches": 7, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"total_opp_half_passes": 3.679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9741, "crosses_total": 0.6824, "crosses_accurate": 0.1376, "touches": 11.9561, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 0.2422, "duels_lost": 1.0992, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4646, "won_contest": 0.2528, "ball_recovery": 0.6908, "challenges_lost": 1.595, "fouls": 0.1064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2712, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0066, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8541, "total_progression": 0.7921, "progressive_carries": 0.4818, "key_pass": 0.3132, "shots_off_target": 0.1889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 13.62, "projection_minutes": 28.19, "minutes_scale": 0.483, "appearance_probability": 0.301 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2096, "tackles": 0.3749, "tackles_won": 0.2519, "clearances": 0.3882, "aerial_won": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.1889, "rating": 6.771, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 7.0942, "accurate_pass": 5.9988, "duels_won": 1.0856, "total_long_balls": 0.6053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2209, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4151, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0247, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9741, "crosses_total": 0.6824, "crosses_accurate": 0.1376, "touches": 11.9561, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 0.2422, "duels_lost": 1.0992, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4646, "won_contest": 0.2528, "ball_recovery": 0.6908, "challenges_lost": 1.595, "fouls": 0.1064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2712, "blocks": 0.0, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0066, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8541, "total_progression": 0.7921, "progressive_carries": 0.4818, "key_pass": 0.3132, "shots_off_target": 0.1889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2096, "tackles": 0.3749, "tackles_won": 0.2519, "clearances": 0.3882, "aerial_won": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.1889, "rating": 6.771, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 7.0942, "accurate_pass": 5.9988, "duels_won": 1.0856, "total_long_balls": 0.6053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2209, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4151, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0247, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9741, "crosses_total": 0.6824, "crosses_accurate": 0.1376, "touches": 11.9561, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 0.2422, "duels_lost": 1.0992, "aerial_lost": 0.0, 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"rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 11 by projected rating, fifa_overall 77.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2096, "tackles": 0.3749, "tackles_won": 0.2519, "clearances": 0.3882, "aerial_won": 0.1161, "total_shots": 0.1889, "rating": 6.771, "minutes": 13.62, "total_pass": 7.0942, "accurate_pass": 5.9988, "duels_won": 1.0856, "total_long_balls": 0.6053, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2209, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4151, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0247, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.679, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.9741, "crosses_total": 0.6824, "crosses_accurate": 0.1376, "touches": 11.9561, "possession_lost": 2.687, "dispossessed": 0.2422, "duels_lost": 1.0992, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.4646, "won_contest": 0.2528, "ball_recovery": 0.6908, "challenges_lost": 1.595, "fouls": 0.1064, "fouls_drawn": 0.2712, "blocks": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0066, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.8541, "total_progression": 0.7921, "progressive_carries": 0.4818, "key_pass": 0.3132, "shots_off_target": 0.1889, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.301, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.62, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3081, "fifa_rank": 1558.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 77.0 } } ] }, "Sergi Altimira": { "player_id": 1137814, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 188, "market_value": 19300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "assist_rate": 0.032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goal_rate": 0.0293, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7359, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 2.2229, "dispossessed": 0.3077, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0316, "ball_carries": 5, 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083583, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.0083, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 5, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083172, "match_date": "2026-04-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0246, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081811, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0435, "expected_assists": 0.0156, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083657, "match_date": "2026-03-22", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083622, "match_date": "2026-03-15", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0339, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081801, "match_date": "2026-03-08", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1412, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 79, "accurate_pass": 71, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14081791, "match_date": "2026-03-01", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083509, "match_date": "2026-02-15", "home_team": "Mallorca", "away_team": 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 771, "combined_rank_score": 519.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9667, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 664.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7359, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sergi Altimira", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Maximiliano Araújo", "ranking": 766 }, { "player_name": "Han Tae-Hee", "ranking": 767 }, { "player_name": "Stanislav Lobotka", "ranking": 768 }, { "player_name": "Pierre-Emile Højbjerg", "ranking": 769 }, { "player_name": "James Tarkowski", "ranking": 770 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joshua 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"player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7545, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nelson Deossa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lorenzo Melgarejo", "ranking": 3436 }, { "player_name": "Tomáš Chorý", "ranking": 3437 }, { "player_name": "Ferran Jutglà", "ranking": 3438 }, { "player_name": "César Tárrega", "ranking": 3439 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Stassin", "ranking": 3440 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 3442 }, { "player_name": "Luis Muriel", "ranking": 3443 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Nwaneri", "ranking": 3444 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Martínez Quarta", "ranking": 3445 }, { "player_name": "Ben Davies", "ranking": 3446 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.764, "history_matches": 30, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", 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0.232, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.146731, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.612675 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.268479 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079331 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.031457 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.026841 } ], "others_margin": -0.05402 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.1394399404525757, "model_output": 1.1394, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.4507 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4303 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0569 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0466 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0438 } ], "others": 0.0308, "total": 1.1394, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.450722 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.430261 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.056943 }, { "name": "keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.046625 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04381 } ], "others_margin": 0.030793 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754495620727539, "model_output": 6.7545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0983 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.7545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098271 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019391 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019285 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007606 } ], "others_margin": -0.005989 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0006, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4623, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0649, "shots_on_target": 0.2321, "total_shots": 1.1401, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 20.76, "total_pass": 11.1923, "accurate_pass": 9.6124, "duels_won": 2.2507, "total_long_balls": 0.9228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7478, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2242, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.388, "crosses_total": 0.0724, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0573, "possession_lost": 2.9668, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5994, "aerial_won": 0.8743, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0367, "tackles_won": 0.239, "tackles": 0.239, "clearances": 0.211, "total_contest": 0.9616, "won_contest": 0.5918, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.379, "fouls_drawn": 0.5456, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1475, "big_chances_missed": 0.1394, "xgot": 0.1148, "ball_carries": 5.9651, "total_progression": 21.802, "progressive_carries": 0.5735, "shots_off_target": 0.9079 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9800000, "quality_factor": 0.5201, "boost_factor": 1.0006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4623, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0643, "shots_on_target": 0.2315, "total_shots": 1.1389, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 20.76, "total_pass": 11.1923, "accurate_pass": 9.6124, "duels_won": 2.2507, "total_long_balls": 0.9228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7478, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2242, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.388, "crosses_total": 0.0718, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0573, "possession_lost": 2.9668, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5994, "aerial_won": 0.8743, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0378, "tackles_won": 0.2398, "tackles": 0.239, "clearances": 0.211, "total_contest": 0.9616, "won_contest": 0.5918, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.5423, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1475, "big_chances_missed": 0.1394, "xgot": 0.1148, "ball_carries": 5.9651, "total_progression": 21.802, "progressive_carries": 0.5735, "shots_off_target": 0.9079 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2307, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.8 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "expected_goals": 0.056, "goals": 0.0617, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 20.76, "minutes_scale": 0.96, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "expected_goals": 0.056, "goals": 0.0617, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.294683 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115924 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045145 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.043503 } ], "others_margin": -0.107222 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.40471890568733215, "model_output": 0.4047, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2574 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0046, "total": 0.4047, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.463559 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045428 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.034346 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.029255 } ], "others_margin": 0.011298 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727969169616699, "model_output": 6.728, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0725 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0205 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0082 } ], "others": 0.0142, "total": 6.728, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.072525 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.020532 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.009061 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.008599 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.008166 } ], "others_margin": 0.014161 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 4, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1447, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.4069, "total_shots": 1.0582, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.4059, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 28.88, "total_pass": 13.6858, "accurate_pass": 9.9687, "duels_won": 1.9245, "total_long_balls": 0.9155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6882, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5493, "crosses_total": 0.2274, "crosses_accurate": 0.2274, "touches": 20.3273, "possession_lost": 5.347, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.442, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.3176, "won_contest": 1.0029, "ball_recovery": 0.6481, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2274, "fouls_drawn": 0.4608, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1933, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1933, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3609, "total_progression": 7.8382, "progressive_carries": 0.2274, "shots_off_target": 0.6513 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1299, "goals": 0.128, "goal_rate": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0743, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.92, "projection_minutes": 28.88, "minutes_scale": 0.8974, "appearance_probability": 0.587 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1299, "goals": 0.128, "goal_rate": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0743, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1299, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0743, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.153, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3311, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9447, "team_expected_assists": 1.528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7097, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6175, "xa_scale": 1.6175, "opponent_lambda": 0.831, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.587 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1299, "after": 0.1233 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1878, "fifa_rank": 961.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1112, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1112, "goal_rate": 0.128, "scorer_weight": 0.122, "squad_weight_total": 2.2809, "weight_share": 0.0535, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "appearance_weight": 0.587, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6492, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4679 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Troy Parrott", "weight": 0.4679, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4679, "runner_up": "Antony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1112, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0375, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.031, "squad_weight_total": 1.2992, "weight_share": 0.0239, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.587, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.25, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.25, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2333 } ] } } ] }, "Rodrigo Riquelme": { "player_id": 989113, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 174, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0597, "goal_rate": 0.0503, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 4.0171, "dispossessed": 0.6764, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.14, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.335, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.025, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1672, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416313, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { 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26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 224, "combined_rank_score": 220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 167.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 274.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": 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"log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.425972 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05508 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.042933 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.036867 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.036119 } ], "others_margin": 0.017062 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.621149063110352, "model_output": 6.6211, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0682 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0091 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0075 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0064 } ], "others": -0.0512, "total": 6.6211, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.068177 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.010047 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.009051 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.007517 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.006367 } ], "others_margin": -0.051197 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 22, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9980, quality 0.454)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0483, "goals": 0.0386, "goal_rate": 0.0386, "shots_on_target": 0.1798, "total_shots": 0.5206, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.4225, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 20.52, "total_pass": 7.1454, "accurate_pass": 5.8635, "duels_won": 1.1838, "total_long_balls": 0.36, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1274, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.6686, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.5466, "crosses_total": 0.5183, "crosses_accurate": 0.2521, "touches": 11.9733, "possession_lost": 3.2509, "dispossessed": 0.6764, "duels_lost": 2.3276, "aerial_lost": 0.4926, "total_contest": 1.043, "won_contest": 0.453, "ball_recovery": 1.5544, "challenges_lost": 0.3602, "fouls": 0.2586, "fouls_drawn": 0.2525, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.085, "tackles_won": 0.2609, 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}, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 1876 }, { "player_name": "Fernando Muslera", "ranking": 1877 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Evanilson", "ranking": 1879 }, { "player_name": "Vanja Milinković-Savić", "ranking": 1880 }, { "player_name": "Abdülkerim Bardakcı", "ranking": 1881 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Arambarri", "ranking": 1882 }, { "player_name": "Kim Hyeon-Jun", "ranking": 1883 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 41, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "shotOffTarget", "bigChanceMissed", "expectedAssists", "keyPass", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "touches", "dispossessed", "wasFouled", "ballRecovery", "possessionLostCtrl", 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}, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0022 } ], "others": -0.0053, "total": 0.0454, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.294683 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115924 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.065306 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045145 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.043503 } ], "others_margin": -0.107222 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.40471890568733215, "model_output": 0.4047, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2574 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0136 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0115 } ], "others": 0.0046, "total": 0.4047, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.463559 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045428 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036329 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.034346 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "margin": 0.029255 } ], "others_margin": 0.011298 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.727969169616699, "model_output": 6.728, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": 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appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0029, quality 0.595)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1447, "goals": 0.1426, "goal_rate": 0.1426, "shots_on_target": 0.4069, "total_shots": 1.0582, "expected_assists": 0.0456, "key_pass": 0.4059, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 28.88, "total_pass": 13.6858, "accurate_pass": 9.9687, "duels_won": 1.9245, "total_long_balls": 0.9155, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6882, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.0731, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.5493, "crosses_total": 0.2274, "crosses_accurate": 0.2274, "touches": 20.3273, "possession_lost": 5.347, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.442, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.3176, "won_contest": 1.0029, "ball_recovery": 0.6481, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2274, "fouls_drawn": 0.4608, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2274, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1933, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1933, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0828, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.3609, "total_progression": 7.8382, "progressive_carries": 0.2274, "shots_off_target": 0.6513 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 16500000, "quality_factor": 0.5953, "boost_factor": 1.0029, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.9 to 25.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.59)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1299, "goals": 0.128, "goal_rate": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0743, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.92, "projection_minutes": 28.88, "minutes_scale": 0.8974, "appearance_probability": 0.587 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1299, "goals": 0.128, "goal_rate": 0.128, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0743, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1299, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0409, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0743, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.153, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3311, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9447, "team_expected_assists": 1.528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7097, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6175, "xa_scale": 1.6175, "opponent_lambda": 0.831, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.587 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1299, "after": 0.1233 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 79.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1878, "fifa_rank": 961.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 79.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1112, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1112, "goal_rate": 0.128, "scorer_weight": 0.122, "squad_weight_total": 2.2809, "weight_share": 0.0535, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "appearance_weight": 0.587, "weight_rank": 7, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6492, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4679 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Troy Parrott", "weight": 0.4679, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4679, "runner_up": "Antony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1233, "goal_rate": 0.128, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3652, "total_shots": 0.9497, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.3643, "rating": 6.728, "minutes": 25.92, "total_pass": 12.2819, "accurate_pass": 8.9461, "duels_won": 1.7271, "total_long_balls": 0.8216, "accurate_long_balls": 0.6176, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.9372, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.7749, "crosses_total": 0.2041, "crosses_accurate": 0.2041, "touches": 18.242, "possession_lost": 4.7985, "dispossessed": 0.508, "duels_lost": 2.1915, "aerial_lost": 0.8096, "total_contest": 1.1824, "won_contest": 0.9, "ball_recovery": 0.5816, "challenges_lost": 0.5823, "fouls": 0.2041, "fouls_drawn": 0.4135, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2041, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.1735, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1735, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0705, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4.811, "total_progression": 7.0341, "progressive_carries": 0.2041, "shots_off_target": 0.5845, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.587, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.92, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1112, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0375, "finishing_factor": 0.9894, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.031, "squad_weight_total": 1.2992, "weight_share": 0.0239, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.587, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.25, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.25, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2333 } ] } } ] }, "Nelson Deossa": { "player_id": 1129401, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 185, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 20, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1016, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0277, "finishing_factor": 1.0538, "creation_factor": 1.198, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421079, "match_date": "2026-10-25", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.7, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1654, "expected_assists": 0.1067, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421068, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0641, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421054, "match_date": "2026-10-11", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Osasuna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 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"keyPass_p90", "margin": 0.046625 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": 0.04381 } ], "others_margin": 0.030793 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.754495620727539, "model_output": 6.7545, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0983 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0194 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0193 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0105 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0076 } ], "others": -0.006, "total": 6.7545, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.098271 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019391 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.019285 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010459 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.007606 } ], "others_margin": -0.005989 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 30, "role_matches": 18, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0006, quality 0.520)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4623, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0492, "assist_rate": 0.0492, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goals": 0.0649, "goal_rate": 0.0649, "shots_on_target": 0.2321, "total_shots": 1.1401, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 20.76, "total_pass": 11.1923, "accurate_pass": 9.6124, "duels_won": 2.2507, "total_long_balls": 0.9228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7478, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2242, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.388, "crosses_total": 0.0724, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0573, "possession_lost": 2.9668, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5994, "aerial_won": 0.8743, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0367, "tackles_won": 0.239, "tackles": 0.239, "clearances": 0.211, "total_contest": 0.9616, "won_contest": 0.5918, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.379, "fouls_drawn": 0.5456, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1475, "big_chances_missed": 0.1394, "xgot": 0.1148, "ball_carries": 5.9651, "total_progression": 21.802, "progressive_carries": 0.5735, "shots_off_target": 0.9079 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9800000, "quality_factor": 0.5201, "boost_factor": 1.0006, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 30, "history_shrink": 0.1429, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0087)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4623, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0583, "goals": 0.0643, "goal_rate": 0.0643, "shots_on_target": 0.2315, "total_shots": 1.1389, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 20.76, "total_pass": 11.1923, "accurate_pass": 9.6124, "duels_won": 2.2507, "total_long_balls": 0.9228, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7478, "total_own_half_passes": 3.4872, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2242, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.705, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.388, "crosses_total": 0.0718, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 17.0573, "possession_lost": 2.9668, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5994, "aerial_won": 0.8743, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0378, "tackles_won": 0.2398, "tackles": 0.239, "clearances": 0.211, "total_contest": 0.9616, "won_contest": 0.5918, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3786, "fouls_drawn": 0.5423, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1475, "big_chances_missed": 0.1394, "xgot": 0.1148, "ball_carries": 5.9651, "total_progression": 21.802, "progressive_carries": 0.5735, "shots_off_target": 0.9079 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0087, "history_matches": 30, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2307, "prior_reliability": 0.0933, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Real Betis" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 20.8 to 19.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "expected_goals": 0.056, "goals": 0.0617, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.93, "projection_minutes": 20.76, "minutes_scale": 0.96, "appearance_probability": 0.57 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assists": 0.0468, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "expected_goals": 0.056, "goals": 0.0617, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.056, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1102, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 2.15 (squad xG sum 1.3311, xG scale 1.6175, xA scale 1.6175, team xA 1.53 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1016, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0538, "creation_factor": 1.198 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 2.153, "squad_xg_sum": 1.3311, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9447, "team_expected_assists": 1.528, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7097, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.6175, "xa_scale": 1.6175, "opponent_lambda": 0.831, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.57 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1016, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0538, "creation_factor": 1.198, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3441, "fifa_rank": 2416.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1016, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0538, "creation_factor": 1.198, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "scorer_weight": 0.0544, "squad_weight_total": 2.2809, "weight_share": 0.0238, "finishing_factor": 1.0538, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.6492, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.6492, "runner_up": "Troy Parrott", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.4679 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Troy Parrott", "weight": 0.4679, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4679, "runner_up": "Antony", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3665 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.4438, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0516, "goal_rate": 0.0617, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2222, "total_shots": 1.0938, "rating": 6.7545, "minutes": 19.93, "total_pass": 10.7448, "accurate_pass": 9.2281, "duels_won": 2.1607, "total_long_balls": 0.8859, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7179, "total_own_half_passes": 3.3478, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.0953, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.3969, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.1326, "crosses_total": 0.0689, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3753, "possession_lost": 2.8482, "dispossessed": 0.3338, "duels_lost": 1.5355, "aerial_won": 0.8393, "aerial_lost": 0.4211, "interceptions": 0.0363, "tackles_won": 0.2294, "tackles": 0.2294, "clearances": 0.2026, "total_contest": 0.9232, "won_contest": 0.5681, "challenges_lost": 0.1074, "fouls": 0.3635, "fouls_drawn": 0.5206, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1416, "big_chances_missed": 0.1338, "xgot": 0.1016, "ball_carries": 5.7266, "total_progression": 20.9303, "progressive_carries": 0.5506, "shots_off_target": 0.8716, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.57, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.93, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.325, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0493, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0277, "finishing_factor": 1.0538, "creation_factor": 1.198, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0277, "assist_rate": 0.0468, "provider_weight": 0.034, "squad_weight_total": 1.2992, "weight_share": 0.0262, "creation_factor": 1.198, "appearance_weight": 0.57, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "weight": 0.25, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.25, "runner_up": "Pablo Fornals", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2333 } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.15, "expected_assists": 1.53, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 458, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 6.95, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1 } }, "Málaga": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Alfonso Herrero": { "player_id": 96371, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 180, "market_value": 420000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0135, "rating": 7.0364, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "total_long_balls": 16, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 46, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.737, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 11.4159, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8149, "shots_faced": 20.5, "expected_saves": 5.02, "high_pressure_saves": 1.72, "opponent_faced": 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{ "global_player_rank": 3276, "combined_rank_score": 1220.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 44.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 2397.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 7.0364, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alfonso Herrero", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Federico Viñas", "ranking": 3271 }, { "player_name": "Marco Reus", "ranking": 3272 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Bueno", "ranking": 3273 }, { "player_name": "Hany Mukhtar", "ranking": 3274 }, { "player_name": "Aleksey Miranchuk", "ranking": 3275 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tim Iroegbunam", "ranking": 3277 }, { "player_name": "Jaminton Campaz", "ranking": 3278 }, { "player_name": "Miguel Merentiel", "ranking": 3279 }, { "player_name": "Pep 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the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2348, "tackles": 1.2629, "tackles_won": 0.7517, "clearances": 5.9825, "aerial_won": 1.6096, "total_shots": 0.473, "rating": 6.9179, "minutes": 82.34, "total_pass": 58.6354, "accurate_pass": 53.0083, "duels_won": 3.344, "total_long_balls": 6.2034, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2335, "total_own_half_passes": 44.1199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42.5589, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4494, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.5961, "possession_lost": 5.8587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7282, "aerial_lost": 0.3986, "total_contest": 0.3739, "won_contest": 0.3739, "ball_recovery": 2.3379, "challenges_lost": 0.6432, "fouls": 0.9052, "fouls_drawn": 0.4348, "blocks": 0.3313, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.0401, "total_progression": 63.6989, "progressive_carries": 0.9905, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.473, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2348, "tackles": 1.2629, "tackles_won": 0.7517, "clearances": 5.9825, "aerial_won": 1.6096, "total_shots": 0.473, "rating": 6.9179, "minutes": 82.34, "total_pass": 58.6354, "accurate_pass": 53.0083, "duels_won": 3.344, "total_long_balls": 6.2034, "accurate_long_balls": 2.2335, "total_own_half_passes": 44.1199, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42.5589, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5155, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.4494, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 69.5961, "possession_lost": 5.8587, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1.7282, "aerial_lost": 0.3986, "total_contest": 0.3739, "won_contest": 0.3739, "ball_recovery": 2.3379, "challenges_lost": 0.6432, "fouls": 0.9052, "fouls_drawn": 0.4348, "blocks": 0.3313, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18.0401, "total_progression": 63.6989, "progressive_carries": 0.9905, "key_pass": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.473, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601, "opponent_faced": "Isco", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 0.8993 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1399 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0511 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0228 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0188 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": 0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0023, "total": 0.4449, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.139891 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.051062 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022803 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.018806 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.014299 } ], "others_margin": -0.002293 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.805213928222656, "model_output": 6.8052, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0317 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0289 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0116 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0114 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0103 } ], "others": -0.0421, "total": 6.8052, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.031718 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.02892 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.011617 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.011394 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.0103 } ], "others_margin": -0.042125 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, "total_long_balls": 1.3226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 14.319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8844, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9021, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.3711, "possession_lost": 11.0465, "dispossessed": 0.7504, "duels_lost": 5.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.7139, "total_contest": 3.0366, "won_contest": 1.9515, "ball_recovery": 4.2511, "challenges_lost": 1.2913, "fouls": 1.4957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1248, "blocks": 0.8017, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4871, "total_progression": 76.6931, "progressive_carries": 1.9869, "key_pass": 0.4821, "shots_off_target": 0.4417 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1000000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, "total_long_balls": 1.3226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 14.319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8844, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9021, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.3711, "possession_lost": 11.0465, "dispossessed": 0.7504, "duels_lost": 5.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.7139, "total_contest": 3.0366, "won_contest": 1.9515, "ball_recovery": 4.2511, "challenges_lost": 1.2913, "fouls": 1.4957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1248, "blocks": 0.8017, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4871, "total_progression": 76.6931, "progressive_carries": 1.9869, "key_pass": 0.4821, "shots_off_target": 0.4417 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, "total_long_balls": 1.3226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 14.319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8844, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9021, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.3711, "possession_lost": 11.0465, "dispossessed": 0.7504, "duels_lost": 5.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.7139, "total_contest": 3.0366, "won_contest": 1.9515, "ball_recovery": 4.2511, "challenges_lost": 1.2913, "fouls": 1.4957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1248, "blocks": 0.8017, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4871, "total_progression": 76.6931, "progressive_carries": 1.9869, "key_pass": 0.4821, "shots_off_target": 0.4417, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, "total_long_balls": 1.3226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 14.319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8844, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9021, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.3711, "possession_lost": 11.0465, "dispossessed": 0.7504, "duels_lost": 5.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.7139, "total_contest": 3.0366, "won_contest": 1.9515, "ball_recovery": 4.2511, "challenges_lost": 1.2913, "fouls": 1.4957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1248, "blocks": 0.8017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.028, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4871, "total_progression": 76.6931, "progressive_carries": 1.9869, "key_pass": 0.4821, "shots_off_target": 0.4417, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, "total_long_balls": 1.3226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 14.319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8844, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9021, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.3711, "possession_lost": 11.0465, "dispossessed": 0.7504, "duels_lost": 5.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.7139, "total_contest": 3.0366, "won_contest": 1.9515, "ball_recovery": 4.2511, "challenges_lost": 1.2913, "fouls": 1.4957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1248, "blocks": 0.8017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4871, "total_progression": 76.6931, "progressive_carries": 1.9869, "key_pass": 0.4821, "shots_off_target": 0.4417, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9634, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, "total_long_balls": 1.3226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 14.319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8844, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9021, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.3711, "possession_lost": 11.0465, "dispossessed": 0.7504, "duels_lost": 5.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.7139, "total_contest": 3.0366, "won_contest": 1.9515, "ball_recovery": 4.2511, "challenges_lost": 1.2913, "fouls": 1.4957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1248, "blocks": 0.8017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4871, "total_progression": 76.6931, "progressive_carries": 1.9869, "key_pass": 0.4821, "shots_off_target": 0.4417, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9634, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2198, "fifa_rank": 1260.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, "total_long_balls": 1.3226, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4342, "total_own_half_passes": 14.319, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11.8844, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.978, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16.9021, "crosses_total": 0.4528, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 60.3711, "possession_lost": 11.0465, "dispossessed": 0.7504, "duels_lost": 5.3364, "aerial_lost": 0.7139, "total_contest": 3.0366, "won_contest": 1.9515, "ball_recovery": 4.2511, "challenges_lost": 1.2913, "fouls": 1.4957, "fouls_drawn": 1.1248, "blocks": 0.8017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0021, "expected_assists": 0.0314, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 11.4871, "total_progression": 76.6931, "progressive_carries": 1.9869, "key_pass": 0.4821, "shots_off_target": 0.4417, "opponent_faced": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0021, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9634, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0021, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.002, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.0023, "finishing_factor": 0.9634, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0772, "tackles": 2.4152, "tackles_won": 1.508, "clearances": 1.7205, "aerial_won": 0.6129, "total_shots": 0.4417, "rating": 6.8052, "minutes": 76.63, "total_pass": 35.2969, "accurate_pass": 28.7865, "duels_won": 7.6505, 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"model_output": 0.8325, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1488 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0739 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0459 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.023 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0193 } ], "others": -0.1125, "total": 0.8325, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.125371 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.073895 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.045945 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.023041 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assists": 0.0618, "assist_rate": 0.0618, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.076, "goal_rate": 0.076, "shots_on_target": 0.2629, "total_shots": 0.8266, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4866, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, "aerial_won": 0.2137, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "interceptions": 0.7645, "tackles_won": 1.3961, "tackles": 2.4171, "clearances": 0.737, "total_contest": 0.7851, "won_contest": 0.3976, "challenges_lost": 0.5123, "fouls": 1.3689, "fouls_drawn": 0.8002, "blocks": 0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1542, "ball_carries": 14.5655, "total_progression": 36.7314, "progressive_carries": 0.841, "shots_off_target": 0.5637 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1200000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0387)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assists": 0.0594, "assist_rate": 0.0594, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0731, "shots_on_target": 0.2661, "total_shots": 0.8079, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, "aerial_won": 0.2137, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "interceptions": 0.7623, "tackles_won": 1.4241, "tackles": 2.4171, "clearances": 0.737, "total_contest": 0.7851, "won_contest": 0.3976, "challenges_lost": 0.5123, "fouls": 1.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.7692, "blocks": 0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1542, "ball_carries": 14.5655, "total_progression": 36.7314, "progressive_carries": 0.841, "shots_off_target": 0.5637 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0387, "history_matches": 9, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8833, "prior_reliability": 0.1667, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.3689, "after": 1.3296 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.8002, "after": 0.7692 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.3961, "after": 1.4241 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8266, "after": 0.8079 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 0.4866, "after": 0.4951 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assists": 0.0594, "assist_rate": 0.0594, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "goals": 0.0731, "goal_rate": 0.0731, "shots_on_target": 0.2661, "total_shots": 0.8298, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, "aerial_won": 0.2137, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "interceptions": 0.7623, "tackles_won": 1.4241, "tackles": 2.4171, "clearances": 0.737, "total_contest": 0.7851, "won_contest": 0.3976, "challenges_lost": 0.5123, "fouls": 1.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.7692, "blocks": 0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1542, "ball_carries": 14.5655, "total_progression": 36.7314, "progressive_carries": 0.841, "shots_off_target": 0.5637 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assists": 0.0594, "assist_rate": 0.0594, "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goals": 0.0702, "goal_rate": 0.0702, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7971, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "interceptions": 0.7623, "tackles_won": 1.4241, "tackles": 2.4171, "clearances": 0.737, "total_contest": 0.7851, "won_contest": 0.3976, "challenges_lost": 0.5123, "fouls": 1.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.7692, "blocks": 0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 14.5655, "total_progression": 36.7314, "progressive_carries": 0.841, "shots_off_target": 0.5415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9606, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.423, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "duel_win_rate": 0.423, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9606, "skill_edge": -0.0108, "height_edge": -0.016, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.4615, "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.9, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "market_value": 4200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4615 } ], "xg_override": 0.0618 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2137, "after": 1.1 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.8298, "after": 0.7971 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.5637, "after": 0.5415 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.2661, "after": 0.2556 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1542, "after": 0.1481 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0623, "assist_rate": 0.0594, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0618, "goal_rate": 0.0702, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7971, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "interceptions": 0.7623, "tackles_won": 1.4241, "tackles": 2.4171, "clearances": 0.737, "total_contest": 0.7851, "won_contest": 0.3976, "challenges_lost": 0.5123, "fouls": 1.3296, "fouls_drawn": 0.7692, "blocks": 0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1481, "ball_carries": 14.5655, "total_progression": 36.7314, "progressive_carries": 0.841, "shots_off_target": 0.5415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9606, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.423, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "assist_rate": 0.0594, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0702, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7971, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "interceptions": 0.7623, "tackles_won": 1.4241, 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"team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0618, "after": 0.0694 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0623, "after": 0.0699 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.2047, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.1663, "ball_carries": 14.5655, "total_progression": 36.7314, "progressive_carries": 0.841, "shots_off_target": 0.5415, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9606, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.423, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0751, "creation_factor": 0.9742, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 93, "fifa_rank": 137.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 85.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "assist_rate": 0.0594, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0702, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7971, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.5545, "interceptions": 0.7623, "tackles_won": 1.4241, "tackles": 2.4171, 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"goal_probability": 0.067, "goal_rate": 0.0702, "scorer_weight": 0.0746, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.0861, "finishing_factor": 1.0751, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6983, "expected_assists": 0.0699, "assist_rate": 0.0594, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0694, "goal_rate": 0.0702, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2556, "total_shots": 0.7971, "rating": 6.9104, "minutes": 79.5, "total_pass": 42.3975, "accurate_pass": 36.0676, "duels_won": 3.8285, "total_long_balls": 2.0897, "accurate_long_balls": 1.149, "total_own_half_passes": 19.7709, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.4432, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.6266, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6243, "crosses_total": 0.4951, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 54.3717, "possession_lost": 9.7997, "dispossessed": 0.6521, "duels_lost": 3.4752, 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"totalShots", "margin": -0.351139 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.10758 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.062333 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.042309 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.03875 } ], "others_margin": -0.183557 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.9168381690979, "model_output": 6.9168, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0403 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0263 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0175 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.014 } ], "others": -0.0318, "total": 6.9168, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.04028 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02625 }, { "name": "totalPass_p90", "margin": 0.022533 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.017547 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.013993 } ], "others_margin": -0.031788 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 9, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6783, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assists": 0.0681, "assist_rate": 0.0681, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goals": 0.0607, "goal_rate": 0.0607, "shots_on_target": 0.1159, "total_shots": 0.4083, "rating": 6.9168, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 30.0742, "accurate_pass": 27.011, "duels_won": 1.5385, "total_long_balls": 1.9147, "accurate_long_balls": 1.25, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8411, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1699, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.9806, "possession_lost": 3.7628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4516, "aerial_won": 0.1938, "aerial_lost": 0.1938, "interceptions": 0.312, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5152, "total_contest": 0.086, "won_contest": 0.086, "challenges_lost": 0.086, "fouls": 0.1719, "fouls_drawn": 1.2587, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7322, "total_progression": 21.2147, "progressive_carries": 0.3392, "shots_off_target": 0.2924 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 380000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0031)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6783, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goals": 0.0605, "goal_rate": 0.0605, "shots_on_target": 0.1155, "total_shots": 0.407, "rating": 6.9168, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 30.0742, "accurate_pass": 27.011, "duels_won": 1.5385, "total_long_balls": 1.9147, "accurate_long_balls": 1.25, 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"wasFouled", "before": 1.2587, "after": 1.2685 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6783, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assists": 0.0679, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "expected_goals": 0.0355, "goals": 0.0605, "goal_rate": 0.0605, "shots_on_target": 0.1155, "total_shots": 0.4079, "rating": 6.9168, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 30.0742, "accurate_pass": 27.011, "duels_won": 1.5385, "total_long_balls": 1.9147, "accurate_long_balls": 1.25, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8411, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1699, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.9806, "possession_lost": 3.7628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4516, "aerial_won": 0.1938, "aerial_lost": 0.1938, "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5152, "total_contest": 0.086, "won_contest": 0.086, 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0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.9806, "possession_lost": 3.7628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4516, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1938, "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5152, "total_contest": 0.086, "won_contest": 0.086, "challenges_lost": 0.086, "fouls": 0.1851, "fouls_drawn": 1.2685, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7322, "total_progression": 21.2147, "progressive_carries": 0.3392, "shots_off_target": 0.2876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9835, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Angel Ortiz", "opponent_faced": "Angel Ortiz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Angel Ortiz", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9835, "skill_edge": -0.0352, "height_edge": 0.024, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.5157, "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.7, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Angel Ortiz", "market_value": 6600000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.5157 } ], "xg_override": 0.0349 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.1938, "after": 0.9 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.4079, "after": 0.4012 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6783, "expected_assists": 0.0431, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0349, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1136, "total_shots": 0.4012, "rating": 6.9168, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 30.0742, "accurate_pass": 27.011, "duels_won": 1.5385, "total_long_balls": 1.9147, "accurate_long_balls": 1.25, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8411, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1699, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.9806, "possession_lost": 3.7628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4516, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1938, "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5152, "total_contest": 0.086, "won_contest": 0.086, "challenges_lost": 0.086, "fouls": 0.1851, "fouls_drawn": 1.2685, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7322, "total_progression": 21.2147, "progressive_carries": 0.3392, "shots_off_target": 0.2876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9835, 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80.0, "total_pass": 30.0742, "accurate_pass": 27.011, "duels_won": 1.5385, "total_long_balls": 1.9147, "accurate_long_balls": 1.25, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8411, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1699, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.9806, "possession_lost": 3.7628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4516, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1938, "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5152, "total_contest": 0.086, "won_contest": 0.086, "challenges_lost": 0.086, "fouls": 0.1851, "fouls_drawn": 1.2685, "blocks": 0.1012, "big_chances_created": 0.1938, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.7322, "total_progression": 21.2147, "progressive_carries": 0.3392, "shots_off_target": 0.2876, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9835, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.2, "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Angel Ortiz", "opponent_faced": "Angel Ortiz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.25, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0431, "after": 0.0484 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 65.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6783, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "assist_rate": 0.0679, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0392, "goal_rate": 0.0595, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1136, "total_shots": 0.4012, "rating": 6.9168, "minutes": 80.0, "total_pass": 30.0742, "accurate_pass": 27.011, "duels_won": 1.5385, "total_long_balls": 1.9147, "accurate_long_balls": 1.25, "total_own_half_passes": 13.6887, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12.8411, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3855, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.1699, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 33.9806, "possession_lost": 3.7628, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.4516, "aerial_won": 0.9, "aerial_lost": 0.1938, "interceptions": 0.311, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.5152, "total_contest": 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"role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9973, quality 0.478)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0887, "goals": 0.1141, "goal_rate": 0.1141, "shots_on_target": 0.4049, "total_shots": 1.2176, "expected_assists": 0.1934, "key_pass": 1.6279, "rating": 7.0015, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 32.0397, "accurate_pass": 25.599, "duels_won": 6.2052, "total_long_balls": 1.5459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9725, "crosses_total": 1.5693, "crosses_accurate": 0.331, "touches": 57.4183, "possession_lost": 17.607, "dispossessed": 2.0863, "duels_lost": 7.5832, "aerial_lost": 0.1598, "total_contest": 5.6643, "won_contest": 2.3171, "ball_recovery": 5.3245, "challenges_lost": 1.4069, "fouls": 0.7026, "fouls_drawn": 1.039, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5347, "tackles_won": 1.8489, "tackles": 2.7296, "clearances": 0.4549, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.1927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0425, "offsides": 0.0624, "ball_carries": 19.9807, "total_progression": 115.3974, "progressive_carries": 3.9738, "shots_off_target": 0.8127 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6300000, "quality_factor": 0.4781, "boost_factor": 0.9973, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0347)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0887, "goals": 0.1101, "goal_rate": 0.1101, "shots_on_target": 0.4184, "total_shots": 1.2715, "expected_assists": 0.1934, "key_pass": 1.6279, "rating": 7.0015, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 32.0397, "accurate_pass": 25.599, "duels_won": 6.2052, "total_long_balls": 1.5459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9725, "crosses_total": 1.5149, "crosses_accurate": 0.331, "touches": 57.4183, "possession_lost": 17.607, "dispossessed": 2.0863, "duels_lost": 7.5832, "aerial_lost": 0.1598, "total_contest": 5.6643, "won_contest": 2.3171, "ball_recovery": 5.3245, "challenges_lost": 1.4069, "fouls": 0.6919, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5435, "tackles_won": 1.8805, "tackles": 2.7296, "clearances": 0.4549, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.1927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0425, "offsides": 0.0739, "ball_carries": 19.9807, "total_progression": 115.3974, "progressive_carries": 3.9738, "shots_off_target": 0.8127 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0347, "history_matches": 10, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9467, "prior_reliability": 0.16, "competition": "La Liga", "squad": "Málaga" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5693, "after": 1.5149 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2176, "after": 1.2715 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.8489, "after": 1.8805 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4049, "after": 0.4184 }, { "stat": "totalOffside", "before": 0.0624, "after": 0.0739 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.7026, "after": 0.6919 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.5347, "after": 0.5435 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.039, "after": 1.0303 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0887, "goals": 0.1101, "goal_rate": 0.1101, "shots_on_target": 0.4184, "total_shots": 1.2715, "expected_assists": 0.1934, "key_pass": 1.6279, "rating": 7.0015, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 32.0397, "accurate_pass": 25.599, "duels_won": 6.2052, "total_long_balls": 1.5459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9725, "crosses_total": 1.5149, "crosses_accurate": 0.331, "touches": 57.4183, "possession_lost": 17.607, "dispossessed": 2.0863, 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6.2052, "total_long_balls": 1.5459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9725, "crosses_total": 1.5149, "crosses_accurate": 0.331, "touches": 57.4183, "possession_lost": 17.607, "dispossessed": 2.0863, "duels_lost": 7.5832, "aerial_lost": 0.1598, "total_contest": 5.6643, "won_contest": 2.3171, "ball_recovery": 5.3245, "challenges_lost": 1.4069, "fouls": 0.6919, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.5435, "tackles_won": 1.8805, "tackles": 2.7296, "clearances": 0.4549, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.1927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0348, "offsides": 0.0739, "ball_carries": 19.9807, "total_progression": 115.3974, "progressive_carries": 3.9738, "shots_off_target": 0.6654, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8187, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca, Natan", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8187, "skill_edge": -0.0674, "height_edge": -0.056, "attacker_skill": 0.4781, "defender_skill": 0.6278, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "market_value": 4200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4615 }, { "player": "Natan", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 } ], "xg_override": 0.0726 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2715, "after": 1.041 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.8127, "after": 0.6654 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.4184, "after": 0.3425 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.1101, "after": 0.0901 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.0887, "after": 0.0726 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.0425, "after": 0.0348 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0726, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3425, "total_shots": 1.041, "expected_assists": 0.1934, "key_pass": 1.6279, "rating": 7.0015, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 32.0397, "accurate_pass": 25.599, "duels_won": 6.2052, "total_long_balls": 1.5459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9725, "crosses_total": 1.5149, "crosses_accurate": 0.331, "touches": 57.4183, "possession_lost": 17.607, "dispossessed": 2.0863, "duels_lost": 7.5832, "aerial_lost": 0.1598, "total_contest": 5.6643, "won_contest": 2.3171, "ball_recovery": 5.3245, "challenges_lost": 1.4069, "fouls": 0.6919, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5435, "tackles_won": 1.8805, "tackles": 2.7296, "clearances": 0.4549, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.1927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0348, "offsides": 0.0739, "ball_carries": 19.9807, "total_progression": 115.3974, "progressive_carries": 3.9738, "shots_off_target": 0.6654, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8187, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca, Natan", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0815, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3425, "total_shots": 1.041, "expected_assists": 0.2174, "key_pass": 1.6279, "rating": 7.0015, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 32.0397, "accurate_pass": 25.599, "duels_won": 6.2052, "total_long_balls": 1.5459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9725, "crosses_total": 1.5149, "crosses_accurate": 0.331, "touches": 57.4183, "possession_lost": 17.607, "dispossessed": 2.0863, "duels_lost": 7.5832, "aerial_lost": 0.1598, "total_contest": 5.6643, "won_contest": 2.3171, "ball_recovery": 5.3245, "challenges_lost": 1.4069, "fouls": 0.6919, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.5435, "tackles_won": 1.8805, "tackles": 2.7296, "clearances": 0.4549, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.1927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0391, "offsides": 0.0739, "ball_carries": 19.9807, "total_progression": 115.3974, "progressive_carries": 3.9738, "shots_off_target": 0.6654, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8187, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca, Natan", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1427, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0726, "after": 0.0815 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1934, "after": 0.2174 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"clearances": 0.4549, "blocks": 0.0531, "big_chances_created": 0.1927, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0391, "offsides": 0.0739, "ball_carries": 19.9807, "total_progression": 115.3974, "progressive_carries": 3.9738, "shots_off_target": 0.6654, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.8187, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca, Natan", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0783, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1427, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0783, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "scorer_weight": 0.0931, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.1075, "finishing_factor": 1.1427, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0815, "goal_rate": 0.0901, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3425, "total_shots": 1.041, "expected_assists": 0.2174, "key_pass": 1.6279, "rating": 7.0015, "minutes": 85.2, "total_pass": 32.0397, "accurate_pass": 25.599, "duels_won": 6.2052, "total_long_balls": 1.5459, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2302, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.7906, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.9725, "crosses_total": 1.5149, "crosses_accurate": 0.331, "touches": 57.4183, "possession_lost": 17.607, "dispossessed": 2.0863, "duels_lost": 7.5832, "aerial_lost": 0.1598, "total_contest": 5.6643, "won_contest": 2.3171, "ball_recovery": 5.3245, "challenges_lost": 1.4069, "fouls": 0.6919, "fouls_drawn": 1.0303, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 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"contribution": 0.189 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0638 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0589 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.047 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0347 } ], "others": -0.173, "total": 0.5749, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.240868 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074963 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074634 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.063834 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.047558 } ], "others_margin": -0.263138 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.782886505126953, "model_output": 6.7829, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0782 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0509 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0411 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.0237 } ], "others": -0.031, "total": 6.7829, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.078164 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050893 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.041082 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.023944 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.023655 } ], "others_margin": -0.030994 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 6, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9908, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3071, "goals": 0.3289, "goal_rate": 0.3289, "shots_on_target": 0.9368, "total_shots": 2.3916, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.5696, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 79.65, "total_pass": 5.4269, "accurate_pass": 4.3172, "duels_won": 2.0731, "total_long_balls": 0.2028, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7197, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2163, "possession_lost": 2.8302, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 2.8473, "aerial_lost": 1.2823, "total_contest": 0.7908, "won_contest": 0.3494, "ball_recovery": 0.5879, "challenges_lost": 0.1465, "fouls": 0.7859, "fouls_drawn": 0.5831, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.2386, "tackles_won": 0.1724, "tackles": 0.1724, "clearances": 0.3851, "blocks": 0.6801, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.238, "xgot": 0.4226, "offsides": 0.8046, "ball_carries": 2.0202, "total_progression": 8.2705, "progressive_carries": 0.8266, "shots_off_target": 1.4548 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9908, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 6, "history_shrink": 0.4545, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3071, "goals": 0.3289, "goal_rate": 0.3289, "shots_on_target": 0.9368, "total_shots": 2.3916, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.5696, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 79.65, "total_pass": 5.4269, "accurate_pass": 4.3172, "duels_won": 2.0731, "total_long_balls": 0.2028, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7197, "crosses_total": 0.0, 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"crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca, Natan", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.8741, "skill_edge": -0.0857, "height_edge": 0.0, "attacker_skill": 0.4374, "defender_skill": 0.6278, "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "market_value": 4200000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.4615 }, { "player": "Natan", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 } ], "xg_override": 0.2684 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.3916, "after": 2.0905 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4548, "after": 1.2716 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9368, "after": 0.8189 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4226, "after": 0.3694 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3289, "after": 0.2875 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3071, "after": 0.2684 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.238, "after": 0.208 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2684, "goal_rate": 0.2875, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8189, "total_shots": 2.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.5696, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 79.65, "total_pass": 5.4269, "accurate_pass": 4.3172, "duels_won": 2.0731, "total_long_balls": 0.2028, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, 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"opponent_defenders": "Marc Roca, Natan", "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca, Natan", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3014, "goal_rate": 0.2875, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8189, "total_shots": 2.0905, "expected_assists": 0.0433, "key_pass": 0.5696, "rating": 6.7829, "minutes": 79.65, "total_pass": 5.4269, "accurate_pass": 4.3172, "duels_won": 2.0731, "total_long_balls": 0.2028, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.657, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.7197, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.2163, 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.06, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2684, "after": 0.3014 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"base": 1.3743, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7781 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.189 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.031 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0171 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.01 } ], "others": -0.0453, "total": 0.3038, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.31798, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.835143 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.381198 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.079124 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.046413 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.028357 } ], "others_margin": -0.139295 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.18755123019218445, "model_output": 0.1876, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1011 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0687 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0377 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0308 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0275 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4801, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1991 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0492 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0127 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.019, "total": 0.1876, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.48008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.199069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.049243 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.025218 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": 0.012723 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.012664 } ], "others_margin": -0.019058 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.642594337463379, "model_output": 6.6426, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0922 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0582 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0313 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0279 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7972, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0448 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0225 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": -0.0211 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0137 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0127 } ], "others": -0.0398, "total": 6.6426, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.797222, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.044818 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.022528 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": -0.021097 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.013728 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.012688 } ], "others_margin": -0.03977 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 19, "role_matches": 12, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9958, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2937, "tackles": 0.7447, "tackles_won": 0.3983, "clearances": 0.8186, "aerial_won": 0.3025, "total_shots": 0.1868, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 16.48, "total_pass": 5.4523, "accurate_pass": 4.1413, "duels_won": 0.6557, "total_long_balls": 0.1953, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.075, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.6179, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3772, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.5234, "crosses_total": 0.0403, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.7535, "possession_lost": 2.6752, "dispossessed": 0.1742, "duels_lost": 1.2524, "aerial_lost": 0.3612, "total_contest": 0.2811, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.5387, "challenges_lost": 0.2549, "fouls": 0.181, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.148, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, 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shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2419, "tackles": 0.6133, "tackles_won": 0.328, "clearances": 0.6742, "aerial_won": 0.2491, "total_shots": 0.1539, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.4903, "accurate_pass": 3.4106, "duels_won": 0.54, "total_long_balls": 0.1608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3324, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0782, "crosses_total": 0.0332, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0326, "possession_lost": 2.2032, "dispossessed": 0.1742, "duels_lost": 1.0314, "aerial_lost": 0.3612, "total_contest": 0.2315, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 0.4437, "challenges_lost": 0.2549, "fouls": 0.1491, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "blocks": 0.1219, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "shots_on_target": 0.1435, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0136, "ball_carries": 1.8533, "total_progression": 4.2965, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "key_pass": 0.088, "shots_off_target": 0.0104, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.299, "bench_expected_minutes": 13.57 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.2419, "tackles": 0.6133, "tackles_won": 0.328, "clearances": 0.6742, "aerial_won": 0.2491, "total_shots": 0.1539, "rating": 6.6426, "minutes": 13.57, "total_pass": 4.4903, "accurate_pass": 3.4106, "duels_won": 0.54, "total_long_balls": 0.1608, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 1.7089, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1.3324, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.7813, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.0782, "crosses_total": 0.0332, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.0326, "possession_lost": 2.2032, "dispossessed": 0.1742, "duels_lost": 1.0314, "aerial_lost": 0.3612, "total_contest": 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"contribution": -0.0269 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0257 } ], "others": -0.0305, "total": 0.2878, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.360071 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.200295 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.050366 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.02689 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.025734 } ], "others_margin": -0.030599 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.658108711242676, "model_output": 6.6581, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.06 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0574 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0292, "total": 6.6581, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05741 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031129 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010946 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009336 } ], "others_margin": -0.029068 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9950, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2282, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assists": 0.025, "assist_rate": 0.025, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.0552, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "shots_on_target": 0.1066, "total_shots": 0.2863, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 14.0, "total_pass": 3.8186, "accurate_pass": 3.3614, "duels_won": 0.995, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4472, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4472, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9143, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.4272, "possession_lost": 0.995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5378, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4572, "tackles": 0.4572, "clearances": 0.5378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9143, "total_progression": 1.9255, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1797 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.0 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0828, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 14.0, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0828, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0321 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0174, "after": 0.0099 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3806, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "scorer_weight": 0.0401, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.0463, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, 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] }, "Izan Merino": { "player_id": 1493488, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 186, "market_value": 4800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "assist_rate": 0.0319, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0167, "goal_rate": 0.0322, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.7051, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 0, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 3.547, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, 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"league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 14, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416338, "match_date": "2026-09-17", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0122, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416312, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.4, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0277, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, 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"importance": 0.1213 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0446 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0276 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9817, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3072 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.2349 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0435 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0374 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0322 } ], "others": -0.1343, "total": 0.1922, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.98173, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.307177 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.234904 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.043524 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.037416 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.032216 } ], "others_margin": -0.134329 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.705125331878662, "model_output": 6.7051, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.102 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0503 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0296 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.856, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0847 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0345 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0196 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0124 } ], "others": -0.0203, "total": 6.7051, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.084684 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.034456 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.019558 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.018596 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.012369 } ], 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0552 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0647, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0207 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0041 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0035 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0027 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0101, "total": 0.0212, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.738275, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.385427 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.096582 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": -0.090457 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.076967 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.072852 } ], "others_margin": -0.392621 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.3031921684741974, "model_output": 0.3032, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1545 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.1071 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.251 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0547, "total": 0.3032, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.448977 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.048073 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045099 } ], "others_margin": -0.165863 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.640441417694092, "model_output": 6.6404, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0401, "total": 6.6404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05626 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031275 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.018457 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012774 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.011148 } ], "others_margin": -0.040063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0026, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1131, "goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1198, "shots_on_target": 0.4907, "total_shots": 1.0734, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.304, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 18.8, "total_pass": 12.689, "accurate_pass": 8.1286, "duels_won": 2.8433, "total_long_balls": 0.5737, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3183, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1115, "crosses_total": 0.775, "crosses_accurate": 0.1873, "touches": 21.6194, "possession_lost": 7.5725, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 3.7902, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 0.8568, "won_contest": 0.1955, "ball_recovery": 0.8859, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 0.9103, "fouls_drawn": 0.6913, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0831, "tackles_won": 0.4663, "tackles": 0.4663, "clearances": 0.998, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3172, "xgot": 0.2101, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 4.2928, "total_progression": 9.0552, "progressive_carries": 0.553, "shots_off_target": 0.5827 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0026, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goals": 0.1635, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.2868, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.66, "projection_minutes": 18.8, "minutes_scale": 1.365, "appearance_probability": 0.576 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goals": 0.1635, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.2868, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.2868, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.576 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1544, "after": 0.0998 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0188 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2054, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "scorer_weight": 0.1042, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.1203, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0185, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.5932, "weight_share": 0.0254, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "player_id": 904964, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 39, 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"duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0888, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga 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(starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.058, "goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "shots_on_target": 0.2146, "total_shots": 0.6241, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.4749, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 24.1, "total_pass": 8.7789, "accurate_pass": 6.0793, "duels_won": 1.2717, "total_long_balls": 0.6069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2789, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9149, "crosses_total": 0.6069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.5654, "possession_lost": 5.5709, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.2065, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.3136, "won_contest": 0.9928, "ball_recovery": 1.2224, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2789, "fouls_drawn": 0.2789, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0185, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9568, "total_progression": 37.6085, "progressive_carries": 2.0927, "shots_off_target": 0.4095 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0563, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 24.1, "minutes_scale": 1.0495, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0563, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0563, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0609, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0563, "after": 0.0353 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4788, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.049, "scorer_weight": 0.0341, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.0394, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0282, "squad_weight_total": 0.5932, "weight_share": 0.0476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Chupete": { "player_id": 1913386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0185, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421077, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0333, "expected_assists": 0.1085, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421073, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4529, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421062, "match_date": "2026-10-09", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0277, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416303, "match_date": "2026-09-20", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assist_rate": 0.0, 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"season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416347, "match_date": "2026-09-13", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0838, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 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"importance": 0.0923 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0893 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.0298 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6939, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.251 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0176 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0165 } ], "others": -0.0547, "total": 0.3032, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.365451, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.448977 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.074054 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.048073 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.045871 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.045099 } ], "others_margin": -0.165863 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.640441417694092, "model_output": 6.6404, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0529 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0463 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.044 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0417 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0371 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7735, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0563 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0313 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0185 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0128 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0111 } ], "others": -0.0401, "total": 6.6404, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.773504, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.05626 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031275 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.018457 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.012774 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.011148 } ], "others_margin": -0.040063 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0026, quality 0.531)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1131, "goals": 0.1198, "goal_rate": 0.1198, "shots_on_target": 0.4907, "total_shots": 1.0734, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "key_pass": 0.304, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 18.8, "total_pass": 12.689, "accurate_pass": 8.1286, "duels_won": 2.8433, "total_long_balls": 0.5737, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3183, "total_opp_half_passes": 8.6538, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.1115, "crosses_total": 0.775, "crosses_accurate": 0.1873, "touches": 21.6194, "possession_lost": 7.5725, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 3.7902, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 0.8568, "won_contest": 0.1955, "ball_recovery": 0.8859, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 0.9103, "fouls_drawn": 0.6913, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0831, "tackles_won": 0.4663, "tackles": 0.4663, "clearances": 0.998, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.3172, "xgot": 0.2101, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 4.2928, "total_progression": 9.0552, "progressive_carries": 0.553, "shots_off_target": 0.5827 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 10700000, "quality_factor": 0.5306, "boost_factor": 1.0026, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 10, "history_shrink": 0.3333, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 25.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.58)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goals": 0.1635, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.2868, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.66, "projection_minutes": 18.8, "minutes_scale": 1.365, "appearance_probability": 0.576 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goals": 0.1635, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.2868, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1544, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0291, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.2868, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.576 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1544, "after": 0.0998 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0291, "after": 0.0188 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2054, "fifa_rank": 783.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "scorer_weight": 0.1042, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.1203, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 2, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0998, "goal_rate": 0.1635, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.6698, "total_shots": 1.4652, "expected_assists": 0.0188, "key_pass": 0.4149, "rating": 6.6404, "minutes": 25.66, "total_pass": 17.3201, "accurate_pass": 11.0953, "duels_won": 3.881, "total_long_balls": 0.7831, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4345, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8121, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.977, "crosses_total": 1.0578, "crosses_accurate": 0.2557, "touches": 29.5098, "possession_lost": 10.3362, "dispossessed": 0.2101, "duels_lost": 5.1735, "aerial_lost": 1.5126, "total_contest": 1.1695, "won_contest": 0.2669, "ball_recovery": 1.2092, "challenges_lost": 0.4958, "fouls": 1.2425, "fouls_drawn": 0.9436, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1134, "tackles_won": 0.6365, "tackles": 0.6365, "clearances": 1.3622, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.433, "xgot": 0.1855, "offsides": 0.4161, "ball_carries": 5.8595, "total_progression": 12.36, "progressive_carries": 0.7548, "shots_off_target": 0.7954, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.576, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.66, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0916, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0185, "finishing_factor": 1.0445, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0185, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.015, "squad_weight_total": 0.5932, "weight_share": 0.0254, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.576, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Joaquín Muñoz": { "player_id": 904964, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 172, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421073, "match_date": "2026-10-18", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 7.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0963, "expected_assists": 0.3045, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9928, quality 0.437)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.058, "goals": 0.0467, "goal_rate": 0.0467, "shots_on_target": 0.2146, "total_shots": 0.6241, "expected_assists": 0.0536, "key_pass": 0.4749, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 24.1, "total_pass": 8.7789, "accurate_pass": 6.0793, "duels_won": 1.2717, "total_long_balls": 0.6069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2789, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.2864, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.9149, "crosses_total": 0.6069, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 15.5654, "possession_lost": 5.5709, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.2065, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.3136, "won_contest": 0.9928, "ball_recovery": 1.2224, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2789, "fouls_drawn": 0.2789, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0185, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 5.9568, "total_progression": 37.6085, "progressive_carries": 2.0927, "shots_off_target": 0.4095 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 1900000, "quality_factor": 0.4374, "boost_factor": 0.9928, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 9, "history_shrink": 0.3571, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 25.3 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.56)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0563, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 25.29, "projection_minutes": 24.1, "minutes_scale": 1.0495, "appearance_probability": 0.559 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goals": 0.049, "goal_rate": 0.049, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0563, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0609, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0563, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0194, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.559 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0609, "after": 0.0382 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0563, "after": 0.0353 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 71.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 4788, "fifa_rank": 5029.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 71.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "goal_rate": 0.049, "scorer_weight": 0.0341, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.0394, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0382, "goal_rate": 0.049, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.2252, "total_shots": 0.655, "expected_assists": 0.0353, "key_pass": 0.4984, "rating": 6.6771, "minutes": 25.29, "total_pass": 9.2132, "accurate_pass": 6.38, "duels_won": 1.3346, "total_long_balls": 0.6369, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2927, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.6469, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5.158, "crosses_total": 0.6369, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.3354, "possession_lost": 5.8465, "dispossessed": 0.2789, "duels_lost": 2.3157, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 2.4281, "won_contest": 1.0419, "ball_recovery": 1.2829, "challenges_lost": 0.328, "fouls": 0.2927, "fouls_drawn": 0.2927, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.0, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0122, "offsides": 0.0, "ball_carries": 6.2515, "total_progression": 39.469, "progressive_carries": 2.1962, "shots_off_target": 0.4298, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0369, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "finishing_factor": 0.8927, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0342, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0282, "squad_weight_total": 0.5932, "weight_share": 0.0476, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.559, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] }, "Jens-Lys Cajuste": { "player_id": 857671, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 188, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0098, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421077, "match_date": "2026-10-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 0, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16416320, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Málaga CF", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Málaga CF", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3806, 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"ranking": 3810 }, { "player_name": "Haris Hajradinović", "ranking": 3811 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "creative_index", "touches_p90", "totalPass_p90", "keyPass_p90", 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-0.0574 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0292, "total": 6.6581, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.856008, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.060011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.05741 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.031129 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.010946 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.009336 } ], "others_margin": -0.029068 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 2, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9950, quality 0.482)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2282, "expected_assists": 0.0116, "assists": 0.025, "assist_rate": 0.025, "expected_goals": 0.0376, "goals": 0.0552, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "shots_on_target": 0.1066, "total_shots": 0.2863, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 14.0, "total_pass": 3.8186, "accurate_pass": 3.3614, "duels_won": 0.995, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 2.4472, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.4472, "total_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.9143, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 6.4272, "possession_lost": 0.995, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.5378, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.4572, "tackles": 0.4572, "clearances": 0.5378, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.5378, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0.9143, "total_progression": 1.9255, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.1797 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 6600000, "quality_factor": 0.4818, "boost_factor": 0.995, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 14.0 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.51)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0828, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.15, "projection_minutes": 14.0, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.507 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "assists": 0.0375, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goals": 0.0828, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 0 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0564, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 0 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 0.83 (squad xG sum 0.7402, xG scale 1.1227, xA scale 1.1227, team xA 0.66 = 0.79 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 0.831, "squad_xg_sum": 0.7402, "squad_xa_sum": 0.5844, "team_expected_assists": 0.6561, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7895, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1227, "xa_scale": 1.1227, "opponent_lambda": 2.153, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.507 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0564, "after": 0.0321 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0174, "after": 0.0099 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 73.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3806, "fifa_rank": 3437.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 73.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected goals", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_goals": 0, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "scorer_weight": 0.0401, "squad_weight_total": 0.8662, "weight_share": 0.0463, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 13 } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation skipped: 0 projected assists", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3423, "expected_assists": 0.0099, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "goal_rate": 0.0828, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1599, "total_shots": 0.4295, "rating": 6.6581, "minutes": 22.15, "total_pass": 5.7279, "accurate_pass": 5.0421, "duels_won": 1.4925, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.6708, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.0572, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.3715, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.6408, "possession_lost": 1.4925, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0.8067, "aerial_won": 0.0, "aerial_lost": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6858, "tackles": 0.6858, "clearances": 0.8067, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.5378, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8067, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1.3715, "total_progression": 2.8883, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2696, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.507, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.15, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0311, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0098, "finishing_factor": 1.2481, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": false, "team_assists": 0, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0098, "assist_rate": 0.0375, "provider_weight": 0.0124, "squad_weight_total": 0.5932, "weight_share": 0.0209, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.507, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 13 } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.83, "expected_assists": 0.66, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 431, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 6.87, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Isco", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.1619, "xg_multiplier": 0.9696, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isco (LW) is evenly matched against Einar Galilea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.97 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.3778, "xg_multiplier": 1.2046, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (ST) has a clear attacking advantage against Einar Galilea and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.20 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.378 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.305, "xg_contribution": 0.1875, "xg_multiplier": 1.1544, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.695 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.695 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (ST) is slightly favored against Einar Galilea and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.15 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Troy Parrott", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.615, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea", "Fernando Calero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.2727, "xg_multiplier": 1.1322, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 }, { "player": "Fernando Calero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Troy Parrott (ST) is slightly favored against Einar Galilea and Fernando Calero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €1M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.13 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.273 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 6300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.478, "defenders": [ "Marc Roca", "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.592, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0726, "xg_multiplier": 0.8187, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Roca and Natan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.82 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adrián Niño", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marc Roca", "Natan" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.592, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.2684, "xg_multiplier": 0.8741, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrián Niño (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Roca and Natan in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €18M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.87 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.268 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Enríquez", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 380000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Angel Ortiz" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0349, "xg_multiplier": 0.9835, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Angel Ortiz", "role": "RB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Enríquez (LWB) is evenly matched against Angel Ortiz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.98 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2300000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marc Roca" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "xg_contribution": 0.043, "xg_multiplier": 0.9371, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.593 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Roca in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.94 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Dotor", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marc Roca" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.423, "xg_contribution": 0.0618, "xg_multiplier": 0.9606, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Roca", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.577 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Dotor (CM) is evenly matched against Marc Roca in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.467, "away_midfield_power": 0.437, "home_creative_power": 0.492, "away_creative_power": 0.372, "home_defensive_power": 0.384, "away_defensive_power": 0.372, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.516, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Marc Roca", "Pablo Fornals", "Isco" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Carlos Dotor", "Ramón Enríquez", "Dani Lorenzo" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo Fornals vs Dani Lorenzo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.013, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.995 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.153, "away_lambda": 0.831, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Isco": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea", "Ramón Enríquez" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Troy Parrott": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea", "Fernando Calero" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Roca": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Adrián Niño", "Dani Lorenzo", "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Natan": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Angel Ortiz": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Enríquez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia", "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Diego Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Adrián Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Einar Galilea": { "opponents": [ "Isco", "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Troy Parrott" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fernando Calero": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony", "Troy Parrott" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca", "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrián Niño": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca", "Natan" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ramón Enríquez": { "opponents": [ "Angel Ortiz", "Isco" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Adam Aznou": { "opponents": [ "Troy Parrott" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Carlos Puga": { "opponents": [ "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Fornals vs Dani Lorenzo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.00, Away: 0.48. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.35, "home_advantage_factor": 1.3418, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0107, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9792, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0495, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.021, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9936, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9734, "home_midfield_factor": 1.013, "away_midfield_factor": 0.995, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5712, "away_avg_quality": 0.4454, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1258, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.6507, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.6422, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.7304, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3466, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1906, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1109, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.9999, "n_duels": 4, "duel_confidence": 0.67, "result": 1.1154 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.013, "result": 1.1299 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.05, "result": 1.1864 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.3418, "result": 1.5919 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0701, "result": 1.7035 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 1.0107, "result": 1.7217 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9936, "result": 1.7106 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.0495, "result": 1.7601 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.7601, "result": 1.7601, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3466, "factor": 1.1906, "pre": 1.7601, "result": 2.0956 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 2.0956 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1586, "result": 2.2546 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3259, "result": 1.8149 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8149, "result": 1.815, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.815, "result": 1.841, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 1.0917, "pre": 1.841, "result": 2.01 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 2.01 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9441, "input_total": 2.549, "result": 1.8976 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 1.8976, "result": 1.898, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.171, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 2.153 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.35 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.4807, "n_duels": 5, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.698 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 0.995, "result": 0.6945 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 0.95, "result": 0.6598 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.6598 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 0.8777, "result": 0.5791 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9792, "result": 0.5671 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9734, "result": 0.552 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.021, "result": 0.573 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 0.573, "result": 0.6, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": true }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": true, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3466, "factor": 0.8891, "pre": 0.6, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.65 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.1833, "result": 0.8333 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.228, "empirical_lambda": 0.3284, "result": 0.7182 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 0.7182, "result": 0.718, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 0.718, "result": 0.7077, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9753, "pre": 0.7077, "result": 0.69 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "reason": "lambda gap >= 1.25 (clear mismatch)", "result": 0.69 }, { "label": "redistribution", "applied": true, "factor": 0.9441, "input_total": 2.549, "result": 0.6514 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": true, "pre": 0.6514, "result": 0.651, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 124, "scale": 1.171, "observed_total_goals": 2.984, "result": 0.831 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1586, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1833, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3466, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0917, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9753, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.841, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.7077, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8149, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7182, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 124, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.984, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.171, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 2.153, "final_away_lambda": 0.831 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0701, "attack_index": 1.032, "defense_concede_index": 1.123, "form_multiplier": 1.044, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.54, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.68, "team_ppg": 1.76, "opponent_ppg": 0.82 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8777, "attack_index": 0.758, "defense_concede_index": 0.971, "form_multiplier": 0.956, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.13, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.45, "team_ppg": 0.82, "opponent_ppg": 1.76 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Real Betis vs Málaga. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.815, Away 0.718). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 2.153, Away 0.831 (most likely score 2-0).", "competition": "LaLiga", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 10, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 5, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Real Betis", "away_squad": "Málaga CF", "home_goals_per90": 1.3333333333333333, "away_goals_against_per90": 0.33, "away_goals_per90": 0.3333333333333333, "home_goals_against_per90": 1.33, "home_empirical_lambda": 0.326, "away_empirical_lambda": 0.328, "blending_weight": 0.228 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 2.153, "away_lambda": 0.831, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.815, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 0.718 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.171, "mismatch_pressure_applied": true, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-31T13:32:58Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }