{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Man Utd", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20261031", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "lineup_status": "unconfirmed_official", "lineup_source": "/matches/get-lineups", "lineup_confirmed": false, "lineup_confidence": 0.75 }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-1", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0899, "most_likely_winning_score_home": "2-1", "most_likely_winning_score_home_probability": 0.0899, "most_likely_winning_score_away": "1-2", "most_likely_winning_score_away_probability": 0.077, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2391, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "deciding_stage": null, "deciding_scoreline": null, "deciding_scoreline_probability": null, "deciding_route_probability": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.109 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0899 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.077 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0753 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0644 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0466, "0-1": 0.0644, "0-2": 0.0463, "0-3": 0.022, "0-4": 0.0078, "0-5": 0.0022, "0-6": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0753, "1-1": 0.109, "1-2": 0.077, "1-3": 0.0365, "1-4": 0.013, "1-5": 0.0037, "1-6": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0632, "2-1": 0.0899, "2-2": 0.0639, "2-3": 0.0303, "2-4": 0.0108, "2-5": 0.0031, "2-6": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.035, "3-1": 0.0498, "3-2": 0.0354, "3-3": 0.0168, "3-4": 0.006, "3-5": 0.0017, "4-0": 0.0145, "4-1": 0.0207, "4-2": 0.0147, "4-3": 0.007, "4-4": 0.0025, "4-5": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0048, "5-1": 0.0069, "5-2": 0.0049, "5-3": 0.0023, "5-4": 0.0008, "6-0": 0.0013, "6-1": 0.0019, "6-2": 0.0014, "6-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4323, "draw": 0.2391, "away_win": 0.3287 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5951, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4049, "btts_yes": 0.6154, "btts_no": 0.3846, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2412, "away_clean_sheet": 0.19 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 6.74, "MCR": 7.02, "ATR": 6.8, "GK": 6.83 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.82, "MCR": 7.0, "ATR": 6.89, "GK": 6.88 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Chelsea vs Man Utd. Most likely scoreline: 2-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels. Head-to-head: Chelsea 2W-4D-4L vs Man Utd over 10 meetings.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, Bryan Mbeumo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Moisés Caicedo vs Carlos Baleba will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.77, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.661, "away_lambda": 1.422, "h2h": { "available": true, "meetings": 10, "home_wins": 2, "away_wins": 4, "draws": 4, "home_multiplier": 0.9857, "away_multiplier": 1.0143 }, "modal_scoreline": "1-1", "modal_scoreline_probability": 0.109, "headline_policy": null }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4323, "draw": 0.2391, "away_win": 0.3287 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4323, "fair_spread": 0.239, "fair_total": 3.083, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.661, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.422, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5951, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.6154, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2412, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.19, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Cole Palmer (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.399, "probability": 0.329, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.3808, "probability": 0.3167, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Cole Palmer (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.2925, "probability": 0.2536, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.2225, "probability": 0.1995, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.083, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 912, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.2, "possession_away_pct": 49.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4323, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.24 goals and fair total 3.08.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Man Utd must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man Utd chance creation leans on Bryan Mbeumo against Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto; bench watchlist: Estêvão, Marco Palestra.", "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Bryan Mbeumo; bench watchlist: Matheus Cunha, Benjamin Šeško, Kobbie Mainoo.", "Assist usage should flow through Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, Bruno Fernandes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.54 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Man Utd is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Man Utd wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Chelsea": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Mike Penders": { "player_id": 1149148, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 199, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 13, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6917, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363893, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.8761 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363884, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.326 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1454, "combined_rank_score": 600.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1125.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.8309, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mike Penders", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Samed Baždar", "ranking": 1449 }, { "player_name": "Curtis Jones", "ranking": 1450 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro García", "ranking": 1451 }, { "player_name": "Natan", "ranking": 1452 }, { "player_name": "Ayoze Pérez", "ranking": 1453 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "ranking": 1455 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Valencia", "ranking": 1456 }, { "player_name": "Gulyamkhaydar Gulyamov", "ranking": 1457 }, { "player_name": "Lachlan Wales", "ranking": 1458 }, { "player_name": "Yankuba Minteh", "ranking": 1459 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.375, "history_matches": 2, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "accurateLongBalls", "totalOwnHalfPasses", "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "saves", "savedShotsFromInsideTheBox", "goodHighClaim", "punches", "aerialWon", "totalKeeperSweeper", "accurateKeeperSweeper", "totalClearance", "ballRecovery", "touches", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "goalsPrevented", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 2, "data_confidence": 0.375, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "market_value_adjustment": 1.035, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 0.0, "starts": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0 }, "rationale": "XGBoost regressor (G_service) evaluated 2 historical appearances across 3 target models; FBref 2026-2027 prior blended (Premier League, Chelsea, rel: 0.00, gls/90: 0.0, ast/90: 0.0)." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output over 3 target models", "stats": { "saves": 3.1128, "goals_prevented": -0.1099, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 25.5946, "accurate_pass": 12.6487, "total_long_balls": 17.4865, "accurate_long_balls": 4.5405, "touches": 33.6757, "clearances": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 6.7027, "high_claims": 0.4595, "punches": 1.0, "aerial_won": 1.4595, "sweeper_actions": 2.0, "sweeper_accurate": 2.0, "saves_inside_box": 2.0811, "possession_lost": 13.4865, "duels_won": 1.4595, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.1081, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6486 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "G", "schema_version": 5, "trained_at": "2026-10-30T10:03:31.159511+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1420, "players": 201, "rows": 7335 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.5405, "rating": 5.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 15.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.4595, "rating": 7.2 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 2.0, "is_starting_11": 1.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 6.5946, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 9.6486, "totalLongBalls": 17.4865, "commanding_index": 2.4189, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 2.0, "distribution_accuracy": 0.6637 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 3.1128218173980713, "model_output": 3.1128, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0453 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.038 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9243, "items": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0676 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": 0.0377 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0256 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0192 } ], "others": 0.0153, "total": 3.1128, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.07304, "item_margins": [ { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.022855 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": 0.01252 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008428 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.007535 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "margin": 0.006219 } ], "others_margin": 0.004932 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.10989829897880554, "model_output": -0.1099, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0392 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0231, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.1083 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0566 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0173 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0162 } ], "others": -0.0543, "total": -0.1099, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023055, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.108261 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": 0.056568 }, { "name": "distribution_accuracy", "margin": 0.02031 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.017285 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.016202 } ], "others_margin": -0.054378 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.830897331237793, "model_output": 6.8309, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0309 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0266 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0219 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0204 } ], "others": -0.0815, "total": 6.8309, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOwnHalfPasses", "margin": -0.030924 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.02658 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.021944 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.021882 }, { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.020371 } ], "others_margin": -0.081485 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 2, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0350, quality 0.669)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 24000000, "quality_factor": 0.6685, "boost_factor": 1.035, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 2, "history_shrink": 0.7143, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6917, "shots_faced": 16.1, "expected_saves": 3.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.35, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.6917 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6917, "shots_faced": 16.1, "expected_saves": 3.94, "high_pressure_saves": 1.35, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6917, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 16.1, "after": 13.5 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 3.94, "after": 3.3 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.35, "after": 1.14 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 9 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6917, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1454, "fifa_rank": 1125.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6917, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 3.2218, "goals_prevented": -0.1137, "rating": 6.8309, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 26.4904, "accurate_pass": 13.0914, "total_long_balls": 18.0985, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6994, "touches": 34.8543, "clearances": 1.035, "ball_recovery": 6.9373, "high_claims": 0.4756, "punches": 1.035, "aerial_won": 1.5106, "sweeper_actions": 2.07, "sweeper_accurate": 2.07, "saves_inside_box": 2.1539, "possession_lost": 13.9585, "duels_won": 1.5106, "duels_lost": 0.0, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 11.4969, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.9863, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.6917, "shots_faced": 13.5, "expected_saves": 3.3, "high_pressure_saves": 1.14, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo, Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.3609, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.3388, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3388, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3359 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3359, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3359, "runner_up": "Jordan Henderson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2033, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Cole Palmer" ] } ] } } ] }, "Josh Acheampong": { "player_id": 1403050, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 34, "height": 190, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 21, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 1, 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"projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0168, "finishing_factor": 1.2184, "creation_factor": 0.8489, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363893, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363884, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0129, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0193, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 42, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0095, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 22, "rating": 6.3, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0127, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", 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"top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1241 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.039 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0331 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0179 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": -0.0097 } ], "others": -0.0269, "total": 0.3058, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.124142 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.038997 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033052 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.017912 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": -0.009669 } ], "others_margin": -0.026935 } }, { "target": "rating", 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-0.014869 } ], "others_margin": -0.049526 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 24, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0106, quality 0.710)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0339, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 29000000, "quality_factor": 0.71, "boost_factor": 1.0106, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 24, "history_shrink": 0.1724, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0339, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goals": 0.0348, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0339, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0339, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2184, "creation_factor": 0.8489 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0196, "after": 0.0372 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0089, "after": 0.0169 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 17 by projected rating, fifa_overall 75.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2184, "creation_factor": 0.8489, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3448, "fifa_rank": 2182.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 75.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0365, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.2184, "creation_factor": 0.8489, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0365, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "scorer_weight": 0.0453, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.0257, "finishing_factor": 1.2184, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.7168, "tackles": 2.0203, "tackles_won": 1.2381, "clearances": 2.3863, "aerial_won": 0.691, "total_shots": 0.3091, "rating": 6.6211, "minutes": 83.91, "total_pass": 35.8555, "accurate_pass": 30.7375, "duels_won": 4.8597, "total_long_balls": 2.1673, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2842, "total_own_half_passes": 21.342, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19.1502, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5135, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.5873, "crosses_total": 0.5556, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 53.422, "possession_lost": 10.0929, "dispossessed": 0.6846, "duels_lost": 3.2353, "aerial_lost": 0.9164, "total_contest": 1.5005, "won_contest": 0.9599, "ball_recovery": 2.8212, "challenges_lost": 0.6176, "fouls": 0.476, "fouls_drawn": 0.6995, "blocks": 0.2599, "goal_rate": 0.0348, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0372, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "shots_on_target": 0.0679, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0643, "ball_carries": 10.9836, "total_progression": 11.6659, "progressive_carries": 0.5509, "key_pass": 0.1465, "shots_off_target": 0.2411, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0365, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0168, "finishing_factor": 1.2184, "creation_factor": 0.8489, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0168, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0143, "squad_weight_total": 1.3609, "weight_share": 0.0105, "creation_factor": 0.8489, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.3388, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3388, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3359 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3359, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3359, "runner_up": "Jordan Henderson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2033, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Cole Palmer" ] } ] } } ] }, "Danny Welbeck": { "player_id": 33902, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 185, "market_value": 3100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2799, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, 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"data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matías Cavalleri", "ranking": 1698 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Theate", "ranking": 1699 }, { "player_name": "Javokhir Kakhramonov", "ranking": 1700 }, { "player_name": "Wilson Odobert", "ranking": 1701 }, { "player_name": "Aitor Paredes", "ranking": 1702 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Angeliño", "ranking": 1704 }, { "player_name": "Park Kyu-Min", "ranking": 1705 }, { "player_name": "Valentín Vidal", "ranking": 1706 }, { "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking": 1707 }, { "player_name": "Ryu Jun-sun", "ranking": 1708 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "F_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", 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"name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.211 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0694 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0637 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0458 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0344 } ], "others": -0.1378, "total": 0.5466, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.267936 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080498 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.080056 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.061702 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.04902 } ], "others_margin": -0.224852 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.647846698760986, "model_output": 6.6478, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0463 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0333 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "contribution": -0.0145 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0135 } ], "others": -0.0942, "total": 6.6478, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046281 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.033299 }, { "name": "dispossessed", "margin": -0.014491 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.013788 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": -0.013505 } ], "others_margin": -0.094195 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 27, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 0.9979, quality 0.439)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2043, "goals": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.2111, "shots_on_target": 0.5208, "total_shots": 1.2233, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assists": 0.0791, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.3011, "xgot": 0.3095, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.7025 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 3100000, "quality_factor": 0.4387, "boost_factor": 0.9979, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2043, "goals": 0.2111, "goal_rate": 0.2111, "shots_on_target": 0.5208, "total_shots": 1.2233, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assists": 0.0791, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.3011, "xgot": 0.3095, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.7025 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1476, "goals": 0.1525, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.8837, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assists": 0.0791, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2175, "xgot": 0.2236, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.5075, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "skill_edge": -0.1709, "height_edge": -0.018, "attacker_skill": 0.4387, "defender_skill": 0.8184, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "market_value": 32000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7941 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "market_value": 42000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8427 } ], "xg_override": 0.1476 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 1.2233, "after": 0.8837 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.7025, "after": 0.5075 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.5208, "after": 0.3762 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.3095, "after": 0.2236 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.3011, "after": 0.2175 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.2111, "after": 0.1525 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.2043, "after": 0.1476 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1476, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.8837, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2175, "xgot": 0.2236, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.5075, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2799, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.8837, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2175, "xgot": 0.424, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.5075, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0248, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1476, "after": 0.2799 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0387, "after": 0.0734 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2799, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.8837, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2175, "xgot": 0.424, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.5075, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0248, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1703, "fifa_rank": 662.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2799, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.8837, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2175, "xgot": 0.424, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.5075, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2441, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0248, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2441, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "scorer_weight": 0.2868, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.1624, "finishing_factor": 1.0248, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 3, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2799, "goal_rate": 0.1525, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3762, "total_shots": 0.8837, "expected_assists": 0.0734, "key_pass": 0.5455, "rating": 6.6478, "minutes": 74.92, "total_pass": 14.7222, "accurate_pass": 11.9925, "duels_won": 2.1405, "total_long_balls": 0.1665, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0841, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.1734, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.411, "crosses_total": 0.0482, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 23.6981, "possession_lost": 5.3063, "dispossessed": 0.3841, "duels_lost": 3.2903, "aerial_lost": 0.8958, "total_contest": 0.835, "won_contest": 0.3283, "ball_recovery": 1.753, "challenges_lost": 0.4267, "fouls": 1.0952, "fouls_drawn": 0.3468, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.2244, "tackles_won": 0.5501, "tackles": 0.8369, "clearances": 1.1589, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1905, "big_chances_missed": 0.2175, "xgot": 0.424, "offsides": 0.3251, "ball_carries": 4.0827, "total_progression": 6.4656, "progressive_carries": 0.4748, "shots_off_target": 0.5075, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "opponent_faced": "Ayden Heaven, Leny Yoro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2441, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0708, "finishing_factor": 1.0248, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0708, "assist_rate": 0.0791, "provider_weight": 0.0918, "squad_weight_total": 1.3609, "weight_share": 0.0674, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 4, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.3388, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3388, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3359 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3359, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3359, "runner_up": "Jordan Henderson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2033, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Cole Palmer" ] } ] } } ] }, "Cole Palmer": { "player_id": 982780, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 185, "market_value": 101000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.2925, "assist_rate": 0.1865, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.399, "goal_rate": 0.255, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 3, "rating": 7.0868, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 12.2483, "dispossessed": 1.4723, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, 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"name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3183, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1112 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0699 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0728 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0392 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0214 } ], "others": 0.1023, "total": 0.7351, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.299577 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.150776 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.136012 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.066295 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.034428 } ], "others_margin": 0.149922 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 2.344006299972534, "model_output": 2.344, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.7534 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1781 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0826 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0707 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0631 } ], "others": 0.212, "total": 2.344, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.753441 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.178101 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.08258 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.070747 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.063082 } ], "others_margin": 0.211948 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.086804389953613, "model_output": 7.0868, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.059 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0424 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0367 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0157 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.015 } ], "others": 0.0928, "total": 7.0868, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.058976 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.042413 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.036707 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.015662 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01495 } ], "others_margin": 0.092801 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 32, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0149, quality 0.894)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.709, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "assists": 0.1831, "assist_rate": 0.1831, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "goals": 0.2276, "goal_rate": 0.2276, "shots_on_target": 0.746, "total_shots": 2.3789, "rating": 7.0868, "minutes": 87.09, "total_pass": 32.1471, "accurate_pass": 26.9811, "duels_won": 4.2084, "total_long_balls": 2.094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0162, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8193, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8862, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0949, "crosses_total": 1.2624, "crosses_accurate": 0.3147, "touches": 49.6029, "possession_lost": 12.2483, "dispossessed": 1.4723, "duels_lost": 5.2338, "aerial_won": 0.2108, "aerial_lost": 0.1229, "interceptions": 0.2925, "tackles_won": 0.3741, "tackles": 1.1141, "clearances": 0.1628, "total_contest": 3.3485, "won_contest": 1.3275, "challenges_lost": 0.4689, "fouls": 1.1524, "fouls_drawn": 1.5559, "blocks": 0.094, "big_chances_created": 0.5717, "big_chances_missed": 0.1485, "xgot": 0.1608, "ball_carries": 19.0501, "total_progression": 96.7023, "progressive_carries": 3.3314, "shots_off_target": 1.6329 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 101000000, "quality_factor": 0.8936, "boost_factor": 1.0149, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0106)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.709, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "assists": 0.1865, "assist_rate": 0.1865, "expected_goals": 0.1947, "goals": 0.236, "goal_rate": 0.236, "shots_on_target": 0.7542, "total_shots": 2.4019, "rating": 7.0868, "minutes": 87.09, "total_pass": 32.1471, "accurate_pass": 26.9811, "duels_won": 4.2084, "total_long_balls": 2.094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0162, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8193, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8862, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0949, "crosses_total": 1.2652, "crosses_accurate": 0.3147, "touches": 49.6029, "possession_lost": 12.2483, "dispossessed": 1.4723, "duels_lost": 5.2338, "aerial_won": 0.2108, "aerial_lost": 0.1229, "interceptions": 0.2948, "tackles_won": 0.3755, "tackles": 1.1141, "clearances": 0.1628, "total_contest": 3.3485, "won_contest": 1.3275, "challenges_lost": 0.4689, "fouls": 1.1456, "fouls_drawn": 1.5556, "blocks": 0.094, "big_chances_created": 0.5717, "big_chances_missed": 0.1485, "xgot": 0.1608, "ball_carries": 19.0501, "total_progression": 96.7023, "progressive_carries": 3.3314, "shots_off_target": 1.6329 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0106, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9677, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", 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"numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diogo Dalot", "opponent_faced": "Diogo Dalot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Diogo Dalot", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 1.0805, "skill_edge": 0.0508, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.8936, "defender_skill": 0.7808, "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "market_value": 28000000, "role": "RB", "price_index": 0.7, "adjusted_quality": 0.7808 } ], "xg_override": 0.2104 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 0.2108, "after": 1.2 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4019, "after": 2.5953 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.6329, "after": 1.7643 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.7542, "after": 0.8149 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.236, "after": 0.255 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.1947, "after": 0.2104 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.1608, "after": 0.1737 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.1485, "after": 0.1605 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.709, "expected_assists": 0.1542, "assist_rate": 0.1865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2104, "goal_rate": 0.255, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8149, "total_shots": 2.5953, "rating": 7.0868, "minutes": 87.09, "total_pass": 32.1471, "accurate_pass": 26.9811, "duels_won": 4.2084, "total_long_balls": 2.094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0162, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8193, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8862, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0949, "crosses_total": 1.2652, "crosses_accurate": 0.3147, "touches": 49.6029, "possession_lost": 12.2483, "dispossessed": 1.4723, "duels_lost": 5.2338, "aerial_won": 1.2, "aerial_lost": 0.1229, "interceptions": 0.2948, "tackles_won": 0.3755, "tackles": 1.1141, "clearances": 0.1628, "total_contest": 3.3485, "won_contest": 1.3275, "challenges_lost": 0.4689, "fouls": 1.1456, "fouls_drawn": 1.5556, "blocks": 0.094, "big_chances_created": 0.5717, "big_chances_missed": 0.1605, "xgot": 0.1737, "ball_carries": 19.0501, "total_progression": 96.7023, "progressive_carries": 3.3314, "shots_off_target": 1.7643, "duel_xg_multiplier": 1.0805, "dribbles_attempted": 4.0, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Diogo Dalot", "opponent_faced": "Diogo Dalot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.709, "expected_assists": 0.2925, "assist_rate": 0.1865, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.399, "goal_rate": 0.255, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8149, "total_shots": 2.5953, "rating": 7.0868, "minutes": 87.09, "total_pass": 32.1471, "accurate_pass": 26.9811, "duels_won": 4.2084, "total_long_balls": 2.094, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0162, "total_own_half_passes": 9.8193, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8.8862, "total_opp_half_passes": 22.3278, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.0949, "crosses_total": 1.2652, "crosses_accurate": 0.3147, "touches": 49.6029, "possession_lost": 12.2483, 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1.1713, "creation_factor": 1.1582 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.2104, "after": 0.399 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1542, "after": 0.2925 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1525, "goal_rate": 0.0959, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4438, "total_shots": 1.2466, "expected_assists": 0.0388, "key_pass": 0.6011, "rating": 6.6752, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 7.3814, "accurate_pass": 6.0798, "duels_won": 1.3178, "total_long_balls": 0.6589, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4.3968, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3.0951, "crosses_total": 0.8037, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 14.1013, "possession_lost": 4.084, "dispossessed": 0.6589, "duels_lost": 2.9652, "aerial_lost": 0.9884, "total_contest": 0.3295, "won_contest": 0.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3178, "challenges_lost": 0.6589, "fouls": 0.3287, "fouls_drawn": 0.6573, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.6573, "tackles": 0.6589, "clearances": 0.2023, "blocks": 0.3295, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0.2226, "ball_carries": 3.167, "total_progression": 10.038, "progressive_carries": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9822, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2781, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3281, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0393, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6436, "fouls_drawn": 0.1883, "blocks": 0.5017, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.1826, "assist_rate": 0.1826, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 47000000, "quality_factor": 0.8129, "boost_factor": 1.014, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0112)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.186, "assist_rate": 0.186, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0112, "history_matches": 28, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.8236, "prior_reliability": 0.1133, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 1.2781, "after": 1.2692 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 0.1883, "after": 0.197 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 0.6436, "after": 0.6364 }, { "stat": "interceptionWon", "before": 0.9822, "after": 0.9766 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.186, "assist_rate": 0.186, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.186, "assist_rate": 0.186, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0018, "expected_assists": 0.0336, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0637, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9653, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0336, "after": 0.0637 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 13 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0637, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9653, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2453, "fifa_rank": 1127.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, "accurate_pass": 28.6199, "duels_won": 3.8704, "total_long_balls": 1.7897, "accurate_long_balls": 0.39, "total_own_half_passes": 19.2834, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.6697, "total_opp_half_passes": 12.9644, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10.9502, "crosses_total": 0.0389, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 47.7079, "possession_lost": 7.0281, "dispossessed": 0.2966, "duels_lost": 3.1088, "aerial_lost": 1.2503, "total_contest": 1.0055, "won_contest": 0.6343, "ball_recovery": 2.7917, "challenges_lost": 0.5472, "fouls": 0.6364, "fouls_drawn": 0.197, "blocks": 0.5017, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.186, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0034, "expected_assists": 0.0637, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1552, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10.487, "total_progression": 27.2406, "progressive_carries": 1.0393, "key_pass": 0.6263, "shots_off_target": 0.3281, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0034, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9653, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0034, "goal_rate": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0033, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.0019, "finishing_factor": 0.9653, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 11, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9766, "tackles": 1.9907, "tackles_won": 1.2692, "clearances": 2.7399, "aerial_won": 0.9805, "total_shots": 0.3298, "rating": 6.7299, "minutes": 74.12, "total_pass": 32.2478, 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"target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3514701724052429, "model_output": 0.3515, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1139 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0462 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0209 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0102 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0079 } ], "others": -0.0361, "total": 0.3515, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113912 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.046164 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020888 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.010195 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.007939 } ], "others_margin": -0.036177 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.800890922546387, "model_output": 6.8009, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0268 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0248 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0193 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0131 } ], "others": -0.015, "total": 6.8009, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.050843 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.026831 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.024789 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.019308 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.013094 } ], "others_margin": -0.01511 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 10, "role_matches": 9, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0335, quality 0.840)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.9584, "tackles": 1.1971, "tackles_won": 0.7396, "clearances": 5.5998, "aerial_won": 2.4953, "total_shots": 0.3633, "rating": 6.8009, "minutes": 88.72, "total_pass": 58.9643, "accurate_pass": 51.7805, "duels_won": 4.5655, "total_long_balls": 4.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0355, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0771, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1503, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6302, "crosses_total": 0.055, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.1763, "possession_lost": 7.8821, "dispossessed": 0.0647, "duels_lost": 2.7868, "aerial_lost": 1.6197, "total_contest": 0.0761, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 3.7885, "challenges_lost": 0.1053, "fouls": 0.9971, "fouls_drawn": 0.3975, "blocks": 0.7985, "goals": 0.0, 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"stat": "fouls", "before": 0.9971, "after": 0.9854 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.962, "tackles": 1.1971, "tackles_won": 0.7631, "clearances": 5.5998, "aerial_won": 2.4953, "total_shots": 0.3682, "rating": 6.8009, "minutes": 88.72, "total_pass": 58.9643, "accurate_pass": 51.7805, "duels_won": 4.5655, "total_long_balls": 4.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0355, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0771, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1503, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6302, "crosses_total": 0.0536, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.1763, "possession_lost": 7.8821, "dispossessed": 0.0647, "duels_lost": 2.7868, "aerial_lost": 1.6197, "total_contest": 0.0761, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 3.7885, "challenges_lost": 0.1053, "fouls": 0.9854, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "blocks": 0.7985, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, 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"possession_lost": 7.8821, "dispossessed": 0.0647, "duels_lost": 2.7868, "aerial_lost": 1.6197, "total_contest": 0.0761, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 3.7885, "challenges_lost": 0.1053, "fouls": 0.9854, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "blocks": 0.7985, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.001, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.0846, "total_progression": 59.8037, "progressive_carries": 0.7784, "key_pass": 0.1053, "shots_off_target": 0.3633, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.962, "tackles": 1.1971, "tackles_won": 0.7631, "clearances": 5.5998, "aerial_won": 2.4953, "total_shots": 0.3682, "rating": 6.8009, "minutes": 88.72, "total_pass": 58.9643, "accurate_pass": 51.7805, "duels_won": 4.5655, "total_long_balls": 4.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0355, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0771, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1503, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6302, "crosses_total": 0.0536, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.1763, "possession_lost": 7.8821, "dispossessed": 0.0647, "duels_lost": 2.7868, "aerial_lost": 1.6197, "total_contest": 0.0761, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 3.7885, "challenges_lost": 0.1053, "fouls": 0.9854, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "blocks": 0.7985, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.001, "expected_assists": 0.0479, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.0846, "total_progression": 59.8037, "progressive_carries": 0.7784, "key_pass": 0.1053, "shots_off_target": 0.3633, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.962, "tackles": 1.1971, "tackles_won": 0.7631, "clearances": 5.5998, "aerial_won": 2.4953, "total_shots": 0.3682, "rating": 6.8009, "minutes": 88.72, "total_pass": 58.9643, "accurate_pass": 51.7805, "duels_won": 4.5655, "total_long_balls": 4.4499, "accurate_long_balls": 1.0355, "total_own_half_passes": 40.0771, "accurate_own_half_passes": 38.1503, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.8872, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.6302, "crosses_total": 0.0536, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 71.1763, "possession_lost": 7.8821, "dispossessed": 0.0647, "duels_lost": 2.7868, "aerial_lost": 1.6197, "total_contest": 0.0761, "won_contest": 0.0761, "ball_recovery": 3.7885, "challenges_lost": 0.1053, "fouls": 0.9854, "fouls_drawn": 0.4014, "blocks": 0.7985, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0019, "expected_assists": 0.0908, "shots_on_target": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.0846, "total_progression": 59.8037, "progressive_carries": 0.7784, "key_pass": 0.1053, "shots_off_target": 0.3633, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0479, "after": 0.0908 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 16.0846, "total_progression": 59.8037, "progressive_carries": 0.7784, "key_pass": 0.1053, "shots_off_target": 0.3633, "opponent_faced": "Bryan Mbeumo", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9804, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1431, "fifa_rank": 695.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { 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0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.195209 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.105042 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.073633 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.039227 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.02404 } ], "others_margin": 0.012306 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.41836610436439514, "model_output": 0.4184, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.1139 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0496 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0149 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "contribution": -0.0132 } ], "others": -0.014, "total": 0.4184, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.113905 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049642 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.016489 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.014854 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.013171 } ], "others_margin": -0.014083 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.796400547027588, "model_output": 6.7964, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.019 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0165 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0143 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "contribution": 0.0087 } ], "others": 0.0186, "total": 6.7964, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.019005 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.016459 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014254 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.009606 }, { "name": "tackle_success_rate", "margin": 0.008666 } ], "others_margin": 0.018626 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 29, "role_matches": 24, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). 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"stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.2027, "after": 1.1973 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2284, "tackles": 1.3869, "tackles_won": 0.8265, "clearances": 5.5086, "aerial_won": 2.0792, "total_shots": 0.4225, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.6227, "accurate_pass": 45.5637, "duels_won": 4.9159, "total_long_balls": 2.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4156, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9194, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6443, "crosses_total": 0.1308, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.138, "possession_lost": 5.9514, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 2.9275, "aerial_lost": 1.0828, "total_contest": 0.3838, "won_contest": 0.2399, "ball_recovery": 3.2827, "challenges_lost": 0.1602, "fouls": 1.238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1973, "blocks": 0.6429, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.54, "total_progression": 54.0678, "progressive_carries": 0.442, "key_pass": 0.2727, "shots_off_target": 0.3806 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2284, "tackles": 1.3869, "tackles_won": 0.8265, "clearances": 5.5086, "aerial_won": 2.0792, "total_shots": 0.4225, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.6227, "accurate_pass": 45.5637, "duels_won": 4.9159, "total_long_balls": 2.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4156, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9194, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6443, "crosses_total": 0.1308, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.138, 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"opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2284, "tackles": 1.3869, "tackles_won": 0.8265, "clearances": 5.5086, "aerial_won": 2.0792, "total_shots": 0.4225, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.6227, "accurate_pass": 45.5637, "duels_won": 4.9159, "total_long_balls": 2.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4156, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9194, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6443, "crosses_total": 0.1308, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.138, "possession_lost": 5.9514, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 2.9275, "aerial_lost": 1.0828, "total_contest": 0.3838, "won_contest": 0.2399, "ball_recovery": 3.2827, "challenges_lost": 0.1602, "fouls": 1.238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1973, "blocks": 0.6429, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "shots_on_target": 0.0419, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0027, "ball_carries": 17.54, "total_progression": 54.0678, "progressive_carries": 0.442, "key_pass": 0.2727, "shots_off_target": 0.3806, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585, "opponent_faced": "Bruno Fernandes", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.2284, "tackles": 1.3869, "tackles_won": 0.8265, "clearances": 5.5086, "aerial_won": 2.0792, "total_shots": 0.4225, "rating": 6.7964, "minutes": 78.93, "total_pass": 49.6227, "accurate_pass": 45.5637, "duels_won": 4.9159, "total_long_balls": 2.4908, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4156, "total_own_half_passes": 28.8669, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.9194, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.7558, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18.6443, "crosses_total": 0.1308, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 65.138, "possession_lost": 5.9514, "dispossessed": 0.2969, "duels_lost": 2.9275, "aerial_lost": 1.0828, "total_contest": 0.3838, "won_contest": 0.2399, "ball_recovery": 3.2827, "challenges_lost": 0.1602, "fouls": 1.238, "fouls_drawn": 1.1973, "blocks": 0.6429, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, 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"xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0152, "after": 0.0288 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0126, "after": 0.0239 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"long_ball_accuracy", "save_contribution", "inside_box_save_rate", "sweeper_accuracy", "sweeper_actions_p90", "distribution_accuracy", "commanding_index", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "saves", "goalsPrevented", "rating" ], "history_matches": 36, "data_confidence": 0.76, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 5.155094560565231, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.147, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0046, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 1.0, "starts": 1.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.0, "prior_reliability": 0.0667 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost G_service (36 historical appearances) to 5.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.15); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost G_service raw output 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"match_date": "2026-05-24", "opponent": "Sunderland", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1279, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-19", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1087, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-04", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "minutes": 66.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0924, "rating": 6.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-21", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0785, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-18", "opponent": "Manchester United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0667, "rating": 6.5 }, { "match_date": "2026-04-12", "opponent": "Manchester City", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0567, "rating": 7.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-21", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0482, "rating": 6.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-14", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.041, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-03-01", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0348, "rating": 7.6 } ], "feature_row": { "history_matches": 20.0, "is_starting_11": 0.0, "sweeper_actions_p90": 0.4592, "accurateOwnHalfPasses": 17.7221, "totalLongBalls": 18.2566, "commanding_index": 1.7574, "accurateKeeperSweeper": 0.7759, "distribution_accuracy": 0.9172 }, "per_target": [ { "target": "saves", "predicted": 2.677777051925659, "model_output": 2.6778, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0453 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0393 }, { "name": "save_contribution", "importance": 0.038 }, { "name": "saves", "importance": 0.0361 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 2.9243, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2507 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0226 }, { "name": "saves", "contribution": 0.0222 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.02 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0191 } ], "others": -0.0015, "total": 2.6778, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.07304, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.089642 }, { "name": "defensiveValueNormalized", "margin": 0.008414 }, { "name": "saves", "margin": 0.008203 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.007392 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.007099 } ], "others_margin": -0.000537 } }, { "target": "goalsPrevented", "predicted": -0.07027606666088104, "model_output": -0.0703, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0462 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0392 }, { "name": "sweeper_actions_p90", "importance": 0.0391 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0381 }, { "name": "punches", "importance": 0.0369 } ], "decomposition": { "base": -0.0231, "items": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0324 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "contribution": -0.0175 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0169 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0094 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "contribution": -0.0093 } ], "others": 0.0383, "total": -0.0703, "log_link": false, "margin_base": -0.023055, "item_margins": [ { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.03241 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "margin": -0.01749 }, { "name": "sweeper_accuracy", "margin": -0.016929 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.009386 }, { "name": "commanding_index", "margin": -0.009325 } ], "others_margin": 0.038318 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.899717807769775, "model_output": 6.8997, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalLongBalls", "importance": 0.039 }, { "name": "accurateKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0364 }, { "name": "accurateOwnHalfPasses", "importance": 0.036 }, { "name": "totalKeeperSweeper", "importance": 0.0357 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0356 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.9903, "items": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "contribution": -0.0311 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "contribution": -0.0239 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0219 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0171 } ], "others": 0.0208, "total": 6.8997, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.99032, "item_margins": [ { "name": "minutesPlayed", "margin": -0.0311 }, { "name": "long_ball_accuracy", "margin": -0.023882 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.021852 }, { "name": "goalkeeperValueNormalized", "margin": -0.017382 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.017062 } ], "others_margin": 0.020674 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 36, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0046, quality 0.630)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6901, "goals_prevented": -0.0706, "rating": 6.8997, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 35.1694, "accurate_pass": 21.9286, "total_long_balls": 18.3406, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4758, "touches": 46.4432, "clearances": 0.67, "ball_recovery": 8.407, "high_claims": 1.5975, "punches": 0.6157, "aerial_won": 0.3932, "sweeper_actions": 0.787, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7851, "saves_inside_box": 2.421, "possession_lost": 13.4207, "duels_won": 0.8144, "duels_lost": 0.0499, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4619, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8036 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 19900000, "quality_factor": 0.6301, "boost_factor": 1.0046, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 36, "history_shrink": 0.122, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "saves": 2.6826, "goals_prevented": -0.0706, "rating": 6.8997, "minutes": 28.5, "total_pass": 35.1694, "accurate_pass": 21.9286, "total_long_balls": 18.3406, "accurate_long_balls": 5.4758, "touches": 46.4432, "clearances": 0.67, "ball_recovery": 8.407, "high_claims": 1.5975, "punches": 0.6157, "aerial_won": 0.3932, "sweeper_actions": 0.787, "sweeper_accurate": 0.7851, "saves_inside_box": 2.421, "possession_lost": 13.4207, "duels_won": 0.8144, "duels_lost": 0.0499, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.009, "fouls_drawn": 0.4595, "total_own_half_passes": 19.5287, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.8036 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0053, "history_matches": 36, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.3167, "prior_reliability": 0.0667, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "saves", "before": 2.6901, "after": 2.6826 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 28.5 to 5.2 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.15)", "stats": { "saves": 0.4852, "goals_prevented": -0.0128, "rating": 6.8997, "minutes": 5.16, "total_pass": 6.3615, "accurate_pass": 3.9665, "total_long_balls": 3.3175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9905, "touches": 8.4007, "clearances": 0.1212, "ball_recovery": 1.5207, "high_claims": 0.289, "punches": 0.1114, "aerial_won": 0.0711, "sweeper_actions": 0.1424, "sweeper_accurate": 0.142, "saves_inside_box": 0.4379, "possession_lost": 2.4275, "duels_won": 0.1473, "duels_lost": 0.009, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.0831, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5324, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.147, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.16 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 5.16, "projection_minutes": 28.5, "minutes_scale": 0.1809, "appearance_probability": 0.147 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.4852, "goals_prevented": -0.0128, "rating": 6.8997, "minutes": 5.16, "total_pass": 6.3615, "accurate_pass": 3.9665, "total_long_balls": 3.3175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9905, "touches": 8.4007, "clearances": 0.1212, "ball_recovery": 1.5207, "high_claims": 0.289, "punches": 0.1114, "aerial_won": 0.0711, "sweeper_actions": 0.1424, "sweeper_accurate": 0.142, "saves_inside_box": 0.4379, "possession_lost": 2.4275, "duels_won": 0.1473, "duels_lost": 0.009, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.0831, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5324, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.147, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.16 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.4852, "goals_prevented": -0.0128, "rating": 6.8997, "minutes": 5.16, "total_pass": 6.3615, "accurate_pass": 3.9665, "total_long_balls": 3.3175, "accurate_long_balls": 0.9905, "touches": 8.4007, "clearances": 0.1212, "ball_recovery": 1.5207, "high_claims": 0.289, "punches": 0.1114, "aerial_won": 0.0711, "sweeper_actions": 0.1424, "sweeper_accurate": 0.142, "saves_inside_box": 0.4379, "possession_lost": 2.4275, "duels_won": 0.1473, "duels_lost": 0.009, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0016, "fouls_drawn": 0.0831, "total_own_half_passes": 3.5324, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3.2203, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.147, "bench_expected_minutes": 5.16, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.147, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363893, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 25, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 0, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363884, "match_date": "2026-10-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2517, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1323, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363641, "match_date": "2026-09-12", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Hull City", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Hull City", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0209, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1998, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023953, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.8, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0079, "expected_assists": 0.0403, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 38, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 893, "combined_rank_score": 418.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 457.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8914, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 380.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7596, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Maxence Lacroix", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yeferson Soteldo", "ranking": 888 }, { "player_name": "Victor Stina", "ranking": 889 }, { "player_name": "Balde", "ranking": 890 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking": 891 }, { "player_name": "Malick Thiaw", "ranking": 892 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matty Cash", "ranking": 894 }, { "player_name": "Stefan de Vrij", "ranking": 895 }, { "player_name": "Óscar Mingueza", "ranking": 896 }, { "player_name": "Moleiro", "ranking": 897 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Hormazábal", "ranking": 898 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.77, "history_matches": 43, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "D_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalLongBalls", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "aerialLost", "ballRecovery", "touches", "totalClearance", "wonTackle", "interceptionWon", "dispossessed", "challengeLost", "errorLeadToAShot", "errorLeadToAGoal", "possessionLostCtrl", "passValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "totalTackle", "totalShots", "rating", "pass_accuracy", "duel_win_rate", "opp_half_pass_pct", "long_ball_accuracy", "defensive_actions", "tackle_success_rate", "touches_p90", "totalTackle_p90", "interceptionWon_p90", "totalClearance_p90", "duelWon_p90", "ballRecovery_p90", "press_vulnerability", "error_severity", "aerial_dominance", "progressive_carries_p90", "history_matches" ], "targets_predicted": [ "interceptionWon", "totalTackle", "wonTackle", "totalClearance", "aerialWon", "totalShots", "rating" ], "history_matches": 43, "data_confidence": 0.77, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 15.248903737724813, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.251, "market_value_adjustment": 1.0111, "fbref_prior_metrics": { "squad": "Chelsea", "competition": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027", "appearances": 2.0, "starts": 2.0, "sub_appearances": 0.0, "goals_per90": 0.0, "assists_per90": 0.5, "prior_reliability": 0.1333 }, "rationale": "Bench projection scaled from XGBoost D_service (43 historical appearances) to 15.2 expected mins (appearance prob 0.25); FBref playing time empirical prior: 0.0 sub appearances, 0 mins/sub." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "xgboost_raw", "description": "XGBoost D_service raw output over 7 target models", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5132, "tackles": 0.6653, "tackles_won": 0.3182, "clearances": 1.8113, "aerial_won": 0.7439, "total_shots": 0.2251, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 41.5496, "accurate_pass": 37.2829, "duels_won": 4.1901, "total_long_balls": 3.1415, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6686, "total_own_half_passes": 27.4419, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.0717, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.1077, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.2112, "crosses_total": 0.0105, "crosses_accurate": 0.0023, "touches": 54.9958, "possession_lost": 5.0943, 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"weight": 0.1276, "rating": 6.9 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1085, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-18", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0922, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-12", "opponent": "Hull City", "minutes": 11.0, "is_starting": false, "weight": 0.0784, "rating": 6.7 }, { "match_date": "2026-09-06", "opponent": "Arsenal", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0666, "rating": 6.6 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-30", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0566, "rating": 6.2 }, { "match_date": "2026-08-24", "opponent": "Fulham", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0481, "rating": 7.3 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-17", "opponent": "Brentford", "minutes": 61.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.0409, "rating": 6.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-05-13", "opponent": "Manchester 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], "others": 0.0352, "total": 0.5132, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.140967, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.794648 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.115084 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.069404 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.039444 }, { "name": "ballRecovery_p90", "margin": -0.026377 } ], "others_margin": 0.070892 } }, { "target": "totalTackle", "predicted": 0.6652716994285583, "model_output": 0.6653, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2458 }, { "name": "totalTackle", "importance": 0.0642 }, { "name": "totalTackle_p90", "importance": 0.0583 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "importance": 0.0268 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3857, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7332 }, { "name": "wonTackle", "contribution": 0.0296 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.024 }, { 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0216 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.017 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "contribution": 0.0142 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0126 } ], "others": -0.0247, "total": 0.3182, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.167585, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.800195 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.058615 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.048497 }, { "name": "defensive_actions", "margin": 0.040832 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.036034 } ], "others_margin": -0.075104 } }, { "target": "totalClearance", "predicted": 1.8112618923187256, "model_output": 1.8113, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.2965 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.1411 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.1086 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0347 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.0221 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 3.4317, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -2.1934 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.2959 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0821 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0819 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0591 } ], "others": 0.054, "total": 1.8113, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 1.233062, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -1.01931 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.214275 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.052138 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.049455 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.0342 } ], "others_margin": 0.030203 } }, { "target": "aerialWon", "predicted": 0.7439296841621399, "model_output": 0.7439, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.8073 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": 0.1215 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0501 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0331 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.033 } ], "others": -0.0641, "total": 0.7439, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.881991 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": 0.193151 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.069878 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.04368 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.041743 } ], "others_margin": -0.082626 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.2251, "model_output": 0.1759, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2483 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0138 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0119 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0086 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0541, "total": 0.1759, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.248269 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.01378 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.011851 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.008628 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.006914 } ], "others_margin": -0.054144 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.759609222412109, "model_output": 6.7596, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0262 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0088 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0086 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0081 } ], "others": 0.0137, "total": 6.7596, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.026207 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014147 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.00878 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.00862 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.008139 } ], "others_margin": 0.013709 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 43, "role_matches": 1, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0111, quality 0.861)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5189, "tackles": 0.6727, "tackles_won": 0.3217, "clearances": 1.8314, "aerial_won": 0.7522, "total_shots": 0.2276, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 42.0108, "accurate_pass": 37.6967, "duels_won": 4.2366, "total_long_balls": 3.1764, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6871, "total_own_half_passes": 27.7465, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3611, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3356, "crosses_total": 0.0106, "crosses_accurate": 0.0023, "touches": 55.6063, "possession_lost": 5.1508, "dispossessed": 0.1133, "duels_lost": 3.0442, "aerial_lost": 1.5632, "total_contest": 0.2154, "won_contest": 0.2088, "ball_recovery": 2.7458, "challenges_lost": 0.4722, "fouls": 0.8939, "fouls_drawn": 0.4241, "blocks": 0.5477, "goals": 0.0117, "goal_rate": 0.0117, "assists": 0.0498, "assist_rate": 0.0498, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "shots_on_target": 0.2276, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0223, "ball_carries": 15.6483, "total_progression": 51.246, "progressive_carries": 0.5524, "key_pass": 0.1042, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 64000000, "quality_factor": 0.8608, "boost_factor": 1.0111, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 43, "history_shrink": 0.1042, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0090)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5158, "tackles": 0.6727, "tackles_won": 0.3219, "clearances": 1.8314, "aerial_won": 0.7522, "total_shots": 0.2263, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 15.67, "total_pass": 42.0108, "accurate_pass": 37.6967, "duels_won": 4.2366, "total_long_balls": 3.1764, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6871, "total_own_half_passes": 27.7465, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26.3611, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.2643, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.3356, "crosses_total": 0.0105, "crosses_accurate": 0.0023, "touches": 55.6063, "possession_lost": 5.1508, "dispossessed": 0.1133, "duels_lost": 3.0442, "aerial_lost": 1.5632, "total_contest": 0.2154, "won_contest": 0.2088, "ball_recovery": 2.7458, "challenges_lost": 0.4722, "fouls": 0.8866, "fouls_drawn": 0.4211, "blocks": 0.5477, "goals": 0.0116, "goal_rate": 0.0116, "assists": 0.0501, "assist_rate": 0.0501, "expected_goals": 0.065, "expected_assists": 0.0176, "shots_on_target": 0.2255, "big_chances_created": 0.0537, "xgot": 0.0223, "ball_carries": 15.6483, "total_progression": 51.246, "progressive_carries": 0.5524, "key_pass": 0.1042, "shots_off_target": 0.0 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.009, "history_matches": 43, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.1741, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "fouls", "before": 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"assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "big_chances_created": 0.0523, "xgot": 0.0217, "ball_carries": 15.2278, "total_progression": 49.8689, "progressive_carries": 0.5376, "key_pass": 0.1014, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.251, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.25 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 15.25, "projection_minutes": 15.67, "minutes_scale": 0.9731, "appearance_probability": 0.251 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5019, "tackles": 0.6546, "tackles_won": 0.3132, "clearances": 1.7822, "aerial_won": 0.732, "total_shots": 0.2202, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 40.8819, "accurate_pass": 36.6837, "duels_won": 4.1228, "total_long_balls": 3.091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6418, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6527, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.031, "crosses_total": 0.0102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 54.112, "possession_lost": 5.0124, "dispossessed": 0.1133, "duels_lost": 2.9624, "aerial_lost": 1.5632, "total_contest": 0.2096, "won_contest": 0.2032, "ball_recovery": 2.672, "challenges_lost": 0.4722, "fouls": 0.8628, "fouls_drawn": 0.4098, "blocks": 0.533, "goals": 0.0113, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "assists": 0.0488, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "big_chances_created": 0.0523, "xgot": 0.0217, "ball_carries": 15.2278, "total_progression": 49.8689, "progressive_carries": 0.5376, "key_pass": 0.1014, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.251, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.25 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5019, "tackles": 0.6546, "tackles_won": 0.3132, "clearances": 1.7822, "aerial_won": 0.732, "total_shots": 0.2202, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 40.8819, "accurate_pass": 36.6837, "duels_won": 4.1228, "total_long_balls": 3.091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6418, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6527, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.031, "crosses_total": 0.0102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 54.112, "possession_lost": 5.0124, "dispossessed": 0.1133, "duels_lost": 2.9624, "aerial_lost": 1.5632, "total_contest": 0.2096, "won_contest": 0.2032, "ball_recovery": 2.672, "challenges_lost": 0.4722, "fouls": 0.8628, "fouls_drawn": 0.4098, "blocks": 0.533, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "shots_on_target": 0.2194, "big_chances_created": 0.0523, "xgot": 0.0217, "ball_carries": 15.2278, "total_progression": 49.8689, "progressive_carries": 0.5376, "key_pass": 0.1014, "shots_off_target": 0.0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.251, "bench_expected_minutes": 15.25, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.251, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.5019, "tackles": 0.6546, "tackles_won": 0.3132, "clearances": 1.7822, "aerial_won": 0.732, "total_shots": 0.2202, "rating": 6.7596, "minutes": 15.25, "total_pass": 40.8819, "accurate_pass": 36.6837, "duels_won": 4.1228, "total_long_balls": 3.091, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6418, "total_own_half_passes": 27.0009, "accurate_own_half_passes": 25.6527, "total_opp_half_passes": 13.881, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.031, "crosses_total": 0.0102, "crosses_accurate": 0.0022, "touches": 54.112, "possession_lost": 5.0124, "dispossessed": 0.1133, "duels_lost": 2.9624, "aerial_lost": 1.5632, "total_contest": 0.2096, "won_contest": 0.2032, "ball_recovery": 2.672, "challenges_lost": 0.4722, "fouls": 0.8628, "fouls_drawn": 0.4098, "blocks": 0.533, "goal_rate": 0.0113, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0488, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0633, "expected_assists": 0.0171, 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"expected_assists": 0.4593, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 75, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023986, "match_date": "2026-03-04", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0439, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", 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per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1626 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "importance": 0.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7736 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1784 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": -0.0549 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0224 } ], "others": -0.0437, "total": 0.2741, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.824433 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.349994 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": -0.138196 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.085862 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.068019 } ], "others_margin": -0.148078 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.6645314693450928, "model_output": 0.6645, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.4039 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2779 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0271 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "contribution": -0.0252 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "contribution": 0.0206 } ], "others": 0.0375, "total": 0.6645, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.403933 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.277864 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.0271 }, { "name": "totalLongBalls", "margin": -0.025182 }, { "name": "totalProgression", "margin": 0.020573 } ], "others_margin": 0.037431 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.978842258453369, "model_output": 6.9788, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0579 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0368 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.0237 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0225 } ], "others": 0.0796, "total": 6.9788, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.057928 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.03717 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.036796 }, { "name": "passValueNormalized", "margin": 0.023677 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.022495 } ], "others_margin": 0.0796 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 33, "role_matches": 10, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0140, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.3021, "tackles": 0.565, "tackles_won": 0.3852, "clearances": 0.8843, "aerial_won": 0.2779, "total_shots": 0.6738, "rating": 6.9788, "minutes": 24.63, "total_pass": 19.2182, "accurate_pass": 16.4418, "duels_won": 1.4357, "total_long_balls": 1.3319, "accurate_long_balls": 0.7358, "total_own_half_passes": 7.4949, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.6748, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.7235, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.7671, "crosses_total": 1.7599, "crosses_accurate": 0.2004, "touches": 26.2076, "possession_lost": 5.1669, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.6547, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.5032, "won_contest": 0.2816, "ball_recovery": 1.9054, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.176, "fouls_drawn": 0.5238, "blocks": 0.1977, "goals": 0.0, 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1.7531 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.6 to 19.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.44)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.24, "tackles": 0.4475, "tackles_won": 0.3028, "clearances": 0.7005, "aerial_won": 0.2201, "total_shots": 0.5337, "rating": 6.9788, "minutes": 19.51, "total_pass": 15.2232, "accurate_pass": 13.0239, "duels_won": 1.1373, "total_long_balls": 1.055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2873, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7367, "crosses_total": 1.3887, "crosses_accurate": 0.1587, "touches": 20.7597, "possession_lost": 4.0928, "dispossessed": 0.0516, "duels_lost": 0.5186, "aerial_lost": 0.0607, "total_contest": 0.3986, "won_contest": 0.2231, "ball_recovery": 1.5093, "challenges_lost": 0.1447, "fouls": 0.1397, "fouls_drawn": 0.4118, "blocks": 0.1566, "goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0059, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "shots_on_target": 0.1683, "big_chances_created": 0.0348, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 5.2324, "total_progression": 10.5253, "progressive_carries": 0.1934, "key_pass": 0.1131, "shots_off_target": 0.3654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.444, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.51 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 19.51, "projection_minutes": 24.63, "minutes_scale": 0.7921, "appearance_probability": 0.444 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.24, "tackles": 0.4475, "tackles_won": 0.3028, "clearances": 0.7005, "aerial_won": 0.2201, "total_shots": 0.5337, "rating": 6.9788, "minutes": 19.51, "total_pass": 15.2232, "accurate_pass": 13.0239, "duels_won": 1.1373, "total_long_balls": 1.055, "accurate_long_balls": 0.5828, "total_own_half_passes": 5.9369, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2873, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2865, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.7367, 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0.1683, "big_chances_created": 0.0348, "xgot": 0.0168, "ball_carries": 5.2324, "total_progression": 10.5253, "progressive_carries": 0.1934, "key_pass": 0.1131, "shots_off_target": 0.3654, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.444, "bench_expected_minutes": 19.51, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 295, "fifa_rank": 199.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } } ] }, "Morgan Rogers": { "player_id": 948261, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 187, "market_value": 115000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1079, "assist_rate": 0.116, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.127, "goal_rate": 0.1439, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 26, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 63, "possession_lost": 18.5463, "dispossessed": 1.631, "duels_lost": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2444, 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"league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363873, "match_date": "2026-10-10", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1802, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363649, "match_date": "2026-09-18", "home_team": "Brentford", "away_team": 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"total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363257, "match_date": "2026-09-06", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0755, "expected_assists": 0.0323, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363249, "match_date": "2026-08-30", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1366, "expected_assists": 1.0086, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16363244, "match_date": "2026-08-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Fulham", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9622, "expected_assists": 0.1024, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "96668", "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assist_rate": 1.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0489, "expected_assists": 0.2656, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023929, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Burnley", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1414, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 122, "combined_rank_score": 113.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 209.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.9569, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Matías Zaldivia", "ranking": 117 }, { "player_name": "Adrián de la Fuente", "ranking": 118 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 119 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 120 }, { "player_name": "Jan Oblak", "ranking": 121 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking": 123 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 124 }, { "player_name": "Jung Seung-bae", "ranking": 125 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Badolato", "ranking": 126 }, { "player_name": "João Neves", "ranking": 127 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.769, "history_matches": 45, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", 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"duels_lost": 7.6315, "aerial_won": 1.0637, "aerial_lost": 2.9058, "interceptions": 0.183, "tackles_won": 0.943, "tackles": 1.5632, "clearances": 1.0442, "total_contest": 2.7224, "won_contest": 1.4059, "challenges_lost": 0.8237, "fouls": 1.1482, "fouls_drawn": 1.5364, "blocks": 0.0216, "big_chances_created": 0.2399, "big_chances_missed": 0.2443, "xgot": 0.1929, "ball_carries": 13.5272, "total_progression": 55.7558, "progressive_carries": 2.5917, "shots_off_target": 0.8783 }, "trace": { "model": { "position_service": "M", "schema_version": 7, "trained_at": "2026-10-30T10:05:30.772321+00:00", "trained_on": { "matches": 1420, "players": 901, "rows": 24770 } }, "player_history": [ { "match_date": "2026-10-24", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1501, "rating": 5.8 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-17", "opponent": "Everton", "minutes": 90.0, "is_starting": true, "weight": 0.1276, "rating": 7.1 }, { "match_date": "2026-10-10", "opponent": 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0.0069 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0074 }, { "name": "creative_index", "contribution": 0.0069 } ], "others": -0.0078, "total": 0.0913, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.464835, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.179226 }, { "name": "totalCross", "margin": 0.092599 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.084984 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.083584 }, { "name": "creative_index", "margin": 0.072152 } ], "others_margin": -0.082775 } }, { "target": "expectedGoals", "predicted": 0.10021953284740448, "model_output": 0.1002, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.1246 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0812 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0743 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0424 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0236 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0914, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0402 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0137 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0148 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0079 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0049 } ], "others": 0.0077, "total": 0.1002, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.392179, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.579501 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.236987 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.205162 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.094548 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.053954 } ], "others_margin": 0.080637 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.11359342187643051, "model_output": 0.1136, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0322 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.095, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0431 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0274 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0115 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0108 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": 0.0052 } ], "others": 0.0068, "total": 0.1136, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.354031, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.605074 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.424339 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.135057 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.11238 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": 0.049794 } ], "others_margin": 0.062406 } }, { "target": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "predicted": 0.23485149443149567, "model_output": 0.2349, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1247 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0771 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0762 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0302 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0257 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.3183, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1718 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0366 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0134 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.0113 } ], "others": 0.0249, "total": 0.2349, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.776237 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.22328 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": 0.126863 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.062353 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.052654 } ], "others_margin": 0.112364 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 1.113143801689148, "model_output": 1.1131, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.625 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.5432 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": 0.0453 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0451 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0322 } ], "others": 0.0882, "total": 1.1131, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.624995 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.543247 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.04525 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.045059 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.032196 } ], "others_margin": 0.088277 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.956866264343262, "model_output": 6.9569, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1217 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1026 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0411 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": -0.0387 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": 0.0255 } ], "others": 0.0547, "total": 6.9569, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.121717 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.102578 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.041057 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": -0.038749 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.025495 } ], "others_margin": 0.054729 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 45, "role_matches": 0, "minutes_source": "position_median", "volume_basis": "all_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0118, quality 0.897)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7573, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "assists": 0.0924, "assist_rate": 0.0924, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1149, "goal_rate": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2376, "total_shots": 1.1263, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 30.1092, "accurate_pass": 23.0143, "duels_won": 5.6165, "total_long_balls": 1.9356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.266, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5862, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7159, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2984, "crosses_total": 1.5995, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 50.3145, "possession_lost": 14.8112, "dispossessed": 1.631, "duels_lost": 7.7216, "aerial_won": 1.0763, "aerial_lost": 2.9401, "interceptions": 0.1852, "tackles_won": 0.9541, "tackles": 1.5816, "clearances": 1.0565, "total_contest": 2.7545, "won_contest": 1.4225, "challenges_lost": 0.8334, "fouls": 1.1617, "fouls_drawn": 1.5545, "blocks": 0.0219, "big_chances_created": 0.2427, "big_chances_missed": 0.2472, "xgot": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 13.6868, "total_progression": 56.4137, "progressive_carries": 2.6223, "shots_off_target": 0.8887 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 115000000, "quality_factor": 0.8968, "boost_factor": 1.0118, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 45, "history_shrink": 0.1, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0082)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.7573, "expected_assists": 0.0862, "assists": 0.0926, "assist_rate": 0.0926, "expected_goals": 0.1014, "goals": 0.1149, "goal_rate": 0.1149, "shots_on_target": 0.2366, "total_shots": 1.1225, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 19.0, "total_pass": 30.1092, "accurate_pass": 23.0143, "duels_won": 5.6165, "total_long_balls": 1.9356, "accurate_long_balls": 1.266, "total_own_half_passes": 9.5862, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7.7159, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.523, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15.2984, "crosses_total": 1.5891, "crosses_accurate": 0.0798, "touches": 50.3145, "possession_lost": 14.8112, "dispossessed": 1.631, "duels_lost": 7.7216, "aerial_won": 1.0763, "aerial_lost": 2.9401, "interceptions": 0.1837, "tackles_won": 0.9481, "tackles": 1.5816, "clearances": 1.0565, "total_contest": 2.7545, "won_contest": 1.4225, "challenges_lost": 0.8334, "fouls": 1.1549, "fouls_drawn": 1.5444, "blocks": 0.0219, "big_chances_created": 0.2427, "big_chances_missed": 0.2472, "xgot": 0.1952, "ball_carries": 13.6868, "total_progression": 56.4137, "progressive_carries": 2.6223, "shots_off_target": 0.8887 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0082, "history_matches": 45, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2111, "prior_reliability": 0.1267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Chelsea" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 1.5995, "after": 1.5891 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.5545, "after": 1.5444 }, { "stat": "fouls", "before": 1.1617, "after": 1.1549 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.9541, "after": 0.9481 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.0 to 23.8 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.34)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9483, "expected_assists": 0.1079, "assists": 0.116, "assist_rate": 0.116, "expected_goals": 0.127, "goals": 0.1439, "goal_rate": 0.1439, "shots_on_target": 0.2963, "total_shots": 1.4091, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 37.7022, "accurate_pass": 28.8181, "duels_won": 7.0329, "total_long_balls": 2.4237, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5853, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6617, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.6985, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1564, "crosses_total": 1.9898, "crosses_accurate": 0.0999, "touches": 63.0029, "possession_lost": 18.5463, "dispossessed": 1.631, "duels_lost": 9.6688, "aerial_won": 1.3477, "aerial_lost": 2.9401, "interceptions": 0.23, "tackles_won": 1.1872, "tackles": 1.9804, "clearances": 1.3229, "total_contest": 3.4491, "won_contest": 1.7812, "challenges_lost": 0.8334, "fouls": 1.4461, "fouls_drawn": 1.9339, "blocks": 0.0274, "big_chances_created": 0.3039, "big_chances_missed": 0.3095, "xgot": 0.2444, "ball_carries": 17.1383, "total_progression": 70.6402, "progressive_carries": 3.2836, "shots_off_target": 1.1128, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.344, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.79, "projection_minutes": 19.0, "minutes_scale": 1.2522, "appearance_probability": 0.344 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.9483, "expected_assists": 0.1079, "assists": 0.116, "assist_rate": 0.116, "expected_goals": 0.127, "goals": 0.1439, "goal_rate": 0.1439, "shots_on_target": 0.2963, "total_shots": 1.4091, "rating": 6.9569, "minutes": 23.79, "total_pass": 37.7022, "accurate_pass": 28.8181, "duels_won": 7.0329, "total_long_balls": 2.4237, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5853, "total_own_half_passes": 12.0037, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9.6617, "total_opp_half_passes": 25.6985, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.1564, "crosses_total": 1.9898, "crosses_accurate": 0.0999, "touches": 63.0029, "possession_lost": 18.5463, "dispossessed": 1.631, "duels_lost": 9.6688, "aerial_won": 1.3477, "aerial_lost": 2.9401, "interceptions": 0.23, "tackles_won": 1.1872, "tackles": 1.9804, "clearances": 1.3229, "total_contest": 3.4491, "won_contest": 1.7812, "challenges_lost": 0.8334, "fouls": 1.4461, "fouls_drawn": 1.9339, "blocks": 0.0274, "big_chances_created": 0.3039, "big_chances_missed": 0.3095, "xgot": 0.2444, "ball_carries": 17.1383, "total_progression": 70.6402, "progressive_carries": 3.2836, "shots_off_target": 1.1128, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.344, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.79 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 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false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.04626 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045916 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042307 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01801 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016407 } ], "others_margin": -0.068522 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0577, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.243, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0282, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 18.84, "total_pass": 4.3541, "accurate_pass": 2.2295, "duels_won": 1.1194, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.76, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2295, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.5941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.0034, "possession_lost": 4.2493, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.1246, "aerial_won": 0.2971, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3495, "total_contest": 0.5941, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8224, "blocks": 0.4111, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8328, "total_progression": 4.2001, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2617 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 47000000, "quality_factor": 0.8129, "boost_factor": 1.0577, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.46, "projection_minutes": 18.84, "minutes_scale": 1.2452, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3060, "fifa_rank": 1130.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "scorer_weight": 0.0463, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.0262, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "provider_weight": 0.0206, "squad_weight_total": 1.3609, "weight_share": 0.0152, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.3388, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3388, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3359 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3359, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3359, "runner_up": "Jordan Henderson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2033, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Cole Palmer" ] } ] } } ] }, "João Pedro": { "player_id": 975079, "position": "F", "position_depth": 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.365421 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.139261 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.089518 }, { "name": "aerialLost", "margin": -0.060266 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.045945 } ], "others_margin": 0.048436 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.912020206451416, "model_output": 6.912, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.117 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0835 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "contribution": 0.032 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0249 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", 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"goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "appearance_probability": 0.371, "projected_substitutes": 2, "scoreline_reset": true } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0735, "after": 0.0891 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0386, "after": 0.0468 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "scorer_weight": 0.0987, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.0559, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0374, "squad_weight_total": 1.3609, "weight_share": 0.0275, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.3388, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3388, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3359 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3359, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3359, "runner_up": "Jordan Henderson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2033, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Cole Palmer" ] } ] } } ] } }, "substitutes": { "Estêvão": { "player_id": 1597265, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 41, "height": 176, "market_value": 82000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 20, "progressive_carries": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363893, "match_date": "2026-10-24", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.5, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0847, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "interceptions": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 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-0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.550674 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.077764 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.076685 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.052945 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.048991 } ], "others_margin": -0.171067 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.626318454742432, "model_output": 6.6263, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0664 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0267 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.0161 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0149 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.012 } ], "others": -0.0406, "total": 6.6263, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.066381 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.026686 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.016122 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014901 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.01205 } ], "others_margin": -0.040628 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 28, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0172, quality 0.884)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.049, "goals": 0.0579, "goal_rate": 0.0579, "shots_on_target": 0.2406, "total_shots": 0.6489, "expected_assists": 0.0257, "key_pass": 0.2627, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 15.01, "total_pass": 4.787, "accurate_pass": 3.9441, "duels_won": 0.8538, "total_long_balls": 0.2713, "accurate_long_balls": 0.1921, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.3569, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.6859, "crosses_total": 0.9504, "crosses_accurate": 0.2131, "touches": 8.556, "possession_lost": 2.8538, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.12, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 0.9744, "won_contest": 0.3889, "ball_recovery": 0.445, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.0982, "fouls_drawn": 0.2648, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0791, "tackles_won": 0.017, "tackles": 0.2003, "clearances": 0.0343, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0513, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0438, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 2.9082, "total_progression": 13.6108, "progressive_carries": 0.8608, "shots_off_target": 0.4083 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 82000000, "quality_factor": 0.8837, "boost_factor": 1.0172, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 28, "history_shrink": 0.1515, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 15.0 to 27.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.64)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0735, "goals": 0.0868, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.06, "projection_minutes": 15.01, "minutes_scale": 1.5, "appearance_probability": 0.639 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0735, "goals": 0.0868, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0735, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0386, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0657, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.639 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0735, "after": 0.0891 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0386, "after": 0.0468 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1445, "fifa_rank": 661.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "scorer_weight": 0.0987, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.0559, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 6, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0891, "goal_rate": 0.0868, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.3609, "total_shots": 0.9734, "expected_assists": 0.0468, "key_pass": 0.3941, "rating": 6.6263, "minutes": 27.06, "total_pass": 7.1805, "accurate_pass": 5.9162, "duels_won": 1.2807, "total_long_balls": 0.4069, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2882, "total_opp_half_passes": 5.0354, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4.0289, "crosses_total": 1.4256, "crosses_accurate": 0.3196, "touches": 12.834, "possession_lost": 4.2807, "dispossessed": 0.2004, "duels_lost": 1.68, "aerial_lost": 0.0965, "total_contest": 1.4616, "won_contest": 0.5834, "ball_recovery": 0.6675, "challenges_lost": 0.1629, "fouls": 0.1473, "fouls_drawn": 0.3972, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.1187, "tackles_won": 0.0255, "tackles": 0.3004, "clearances": 0.0514, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0769, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0796, "offsides": 0.2195, "ball_carries": 4.3623, "total_progression": 20.4162, "progressive_carries": 1.2912, "shots_off_target": 0.6124, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.639, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.06, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0832, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "finishing_factor": 1.1077, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0451, "assist_rate": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0374, "squad_weight_total": 1.3609, "weight_share": 0.0275, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 0.639, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.3388, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3388, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3359 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3359, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3359, "runner_up": "Jordan Henderson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2033, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Cole Palmer" ] } ] } } ] }, "Marco Palestra": { "player_id": 1397736, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 186, "market_value": 47000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 0, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 5, "progressive_carries": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, 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{ "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.045916 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.042307 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.01801 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.016407 } ], "others_margin": -0.068522 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 3, "role_matches": 3, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0577, quality 0.813)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.243, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "assists": 0.0282, "assist_rate": 0.0282, "expected_goals": 0.0313, "goals": 0.0388, "goal_rate": 0.0388, "shots_on_target": 0.1034, "total_shots": 0.3651, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 18.84, "total_pass": 4.3541, "accurate_pass": 2.2295, "duels_won": 1.1194, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 3.76, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.2295, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.5941, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 10.0034, "possession_lost": 4.2493, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.1246, "aerial_won": 0.2971, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.3495, "total_contest": 0.5941, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.8224, "blocks": 0.4111, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2.8328, "total_progression": 4.2001, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.2617 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 47000000, "quality_factor": 0.8129, "boost_factor": 1.0577, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 3, "history_shrink": 0.625, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 18.8 to 23.5 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.57)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.46, "projection_minutes": 18.84, "minutes_scale": 1.2452, "appearance_probability": 0.566 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assists": 0.0351, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goals": 0.0483, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 2 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0154, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.039, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 2 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.66 (squad xG sum 0.8758, xG scale 1.8965, xA scale 1.8965, team xA 1.28 = 0.77 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.661, "squad_xg_sum": 0.8758, "squad_xa_sum": 0.6759, "team_expected_assists": 1.2818, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7717, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.8965, "xa_scale": 1.8965, "opponent_lambda": 1.422, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.566 } }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 3060, "fifa_rank": 1130.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 2, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "scorer_weight": 0.0463, "squad_weight_total": 1.766, "weight_share": 0.0262, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.4673, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.4673, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3652 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3652, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3652, "runner_up": "Danny Welbeck", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2868 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 2 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3026, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0419, "goal_rate": 0.0483, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.1288, "total_shots": 0.4547, "rating": 6.6178, "minutes": 23.46, "total_pass": 5.4216, "accurate_pass": 2.7761, "duels_won": 1.3939, "total_long_balls": 0.0, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0, "total_own_half_passes": 4.6819, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2.7761, "total_opp_half_passes": 0.7398, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0.0, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 12.456, "possession_lost": 5.2911, "dispossessed": 0.8224, "duels_lost": 2.6455, "aerial_won": 0.3699, "aerial_lost": 0.2971, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.4352, "total_contest": 0.7398, "won_contest": 0.0, "challenges_lost": 0.4111, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.024, "blocks": 0.5119, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3.5274, "total_progression": 5.2299, "progressive_carries": 0.0, "shots_off_target": 0.3259, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.566, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.46, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.364, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0404, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "finishing_factor": 1.1045, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 2, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0163, "assist_rate": 0.0351, "provider_weight": 0.0206, "squad_weight_total": 1.3609, "weight_share": 0.0152, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.566, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 12, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Cole Palmer", "weight": 0.3388, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3388, "runner_up": "Pedro Neto", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.3359 }, { "n": 2, "player": "Pedro Neto", "weight": 0.3359, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3359, "runner_up": "Jordan Henderson", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2033, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Cole Palmer" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 1.66, "expected_assists": 1.28, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 406, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 6.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4 } }, "Man Utd": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Bryan Mbeumo": { "player_id": 927083, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 73000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3808, "goal_rate": 0.3603, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "expected_assists": 0.126, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assist_rate": 0.0184, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5191, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 50, "progressive_carries": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9624, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato", "opponent_faced": "Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3167, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1184, "finishing_factor": 1.048, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16363899, "match_date": "2026-10-25", 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"others": 0.0215, "total": 6.9071, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.063729 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "margin": 0.040396 }, { "name": "shotValueNormalized", "margin": -0.027576 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.019694 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.01862 } ], "others_margin": 0.021383 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 39, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0121, quality 0.875)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3548, "goals": 0.3734, "goal_rate": 0.3734, "shots_on_target": 0.9253, "total_shots": 2.3954, "expected_assists": 0.113, "key_pass": 1.4347, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 86.59, "total_pass": 24.2801, "accurate_pass": 19.708, "duels_won": 3.1609, "total_long_balls": 0.4221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2076, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3922, "crosses_total": 2.4798, "crosses_accurate": 0.7626, "touches": 40.417, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, "duels_lost": 6.6183, "aerial_lost": 2.9615, "total_contest": 1.9149, "won_contest": 0.8766, "ball_recovery": 2.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.7238, "fouls": 0.7872, "fouls_drawn": 0.9065, "assists": 0.0186, "assist_rate": 0.0186, "interceptions": 0.475, 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"after": 2.4136 }, { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.3951, "after": 0.4004 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3548, "goals": 0.3744, "goal_rate": 0.3744, "shots_on_target": 0.9302, "total_shots": 2.4136, "expected_assists": 0.113, "key_pass": 1.4347, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 86.59, "total_pass": 24.2801, "accurate_pass": 19.708, "duels_won": 3.1609, "total_long_balls": 0.4221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2076, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3922, "crosses_total": 2.5244, "crosses_accurate": 0.7626, "touches": 40.417, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, "duels_lost": 6.6183, "aerial_lost": 2.9615, "total_contest": 1.9149, "won_contest": 0.8766, "ball_recovery": 2.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.7238, "fouls": 0.7843, "fouls_drawn": 0.9025, "assists": 0.0184, "assist_rate": 0.0184, "interceptions": 0.4705, "tackles_won": 0.4004, "tackles": 0.6859, "clearances": 0.3275, "blocks": 0.0844, "big_chances_created": 0.2176, "big_chances_missed": 0.6451, "xgot": 0.4838, "offsides": 0.2763, "ball_carries": 11.7018, "total_progression": 50.285, "progressive_carries": 2.3212, "shots_off_target": 1.4701 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3415, "goals": 0.3603, "goal_rate": 0.3603, "shots_on_target": 0.8952, "total_shots": 2.3228, "expected_assists": 0.113, "key_pass": 1.4347, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 86.59, "total_pass": 24.2801, "accurate_pass": 19.708, "duels_won": 3.1609, "total_long_balls": 0.4221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2076, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3922, "crosses_total": 2.5244, "crosses_accurate": 0.7626, "touches": 40.417, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, 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"duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "xg_multiplier": 0.9624, "skill_edge": 0.0264, "height_edge": -0.052, "attacker_skill": 0.8747, "defender_skill": 0.8159, "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_mv_price_index": 1.0, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Josh Acheampong", "market_value": 29000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.7736 }, { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "market_value": 47000000, "role": "CB", "price_index": 0.75, "adjusted_quality": 0.8582 } ], "xg_override": 0.3415 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 2.4136, "after": 2.3228 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 1.4701, "after": 1.4148 }, { "stat": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "before": 0.9302, "after": 0.8952 }, { "stat": "bigChanceMissed", "before": 0.6451, "after": 0.6208 }, { "stat": "expectedGoalsOnTarget", "before": 0.4838, "after": 0.4656 }, { "stat": "goals", "before": 0.3744, "after": 0.3603 }, { "stat": "expectedGoals", "before": 0.3548, "after": 0.3415 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3415, "goal_rate": 0.3603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8952, "total_shots": 2.3228, "expected_assists": 0.113, "key_pass": 1.4347, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 86.59, "total_pass": 24.2801, "accurate_pass": 19.708, "duels_won": 3.1609, "total_long_balls": 0.4221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2076, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3922, "crosses_total": 2.5244, "crosses_accurate": 0.7626, "touches": 40.417, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, "duels_lost": 6.6183, "aerial_lost": 2.9615, "total_contest": 1.9149, "won_contest": 0.8766, "ball_recovery": 2.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.7238, "fouls": 0.7843, "fouls_drawn": 0.9025, "assist_rate": 0.0184, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4705, "tackles_won": 0.4004, "tackles": 0.6859, "clearances": 0.3275, "blocks": 0.0844, "big_chances_created": 0.2176, "big_chances_missed": 0.6208, "xgot": 0.4656, "offsides": 0.2763, "ball_carries": 11.7018, "total_progression": 50.285, "progressive_carries": 2.3212, "shots_off_target": 1.4148, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9624, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato", "opponent_faced": "Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3808, "goal_rate": 0.3603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8952, "total_shots": 2.3228, "expected_assists": 0.126, "key_pass": 1.4347, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 86.59, "total_pass": 24.2801, "accurate_pass": 19.708, "duels_won": 3.1609, "total_long_balls": 0.4221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2076, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3922, "crosses_total": 2.5244, "crosses_accurate": 0.7626, "touches": 40.417, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, "duels_lost": 6.6183, "aerial_lost": 2.9615, "total_contest": 1.9149, "won_contest": 0.8766, "ball_recovery": 2.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.7238, "fouls": 0.7843, "fouls_drawn": 0.9025, "assist_rate": 0.0184, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4705, "tackles_won": 0.4004, "tackles": 0.6859, "clearances": 0.3275, "blocks": 0.0844, "big_chances_created": 0.2176, "big_chances_missed": 0.6208, "xgot": 0.5191, "offsides": 0.2763, "ball_carries": 11.7018, "total_progression": 50.285, "progressive_carries": 2.3212, "shots_off_target": 1.4148, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9624, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato", "opponent_faced": "Josh Acheampong, Jorrel Hato", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.048, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.3415, "after": 0.3808 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.113, "after": 0.126 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 7 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3808, "goal_rate": 0.3603, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.8952, "total_shots": 2.3228, "expected_assists": 0.126, "key_pass": 1.4347, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 86.59, "total_pass": 24.2801, "accurate_pass": 19.708, "duels_won": 3.1609, "total_long_balls": 0.4221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2076, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3922, "crosses_total": 2.5244, "crosses_accurate": 0.7626, "touches": 40.417, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, "duels_lost": 6.6183, "aerial_lost": 2.9615, "total_contest": 1.9149, "won_contest": 0.8766, "ball_recovery": 2.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.7238, "fouls": 0.7843, "fouls_drawn": 0.9025, "assist_rate": 0.0184, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.4705, "tackles_won": 0.4004, "tackles": 0.6859, "clearances": 0.3275, "blocks": 0.0844, "big_chances_created": 0.2176, "big_chances_missed": 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"fifa_rank": 203.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3808, "goal_rate": 0.3603, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0.8952, "total_shots": 2.3228, "expected_assists": 0.126, "key_pass": 1.4347, "rating": 6.9071, "minutes": 86.59, "total_pass": 24.2801, "accurate_pass": 19.708, "duels_won": 3.1609, "total_long_balls": 0.4221, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2076, "total_opp_half_passes": 18.2823, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14.3922, "crosses_total": 2.5244, "crosses_accurate": 0.7626, "touches": 40.417, "possession_lost": 11.4375, "dispossessed": 1.1074, "duels_lost": 6.6183, "aerial_lost": 2.9615, "total_contest": 1.9149, "won_contest": 0.8766, "ball_recovery": 2.3315, "challenges_lost": 0.7238, "fouls": 0.7843, "fouls_drawn": 0.9025, 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"scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.1535 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.0638 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "contribution": -0.0256 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.0248 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.0133 } ], "others": -0.0333, "total": 1.154, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.153461 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.063839 }, { "name": "goalAssist", "margin": -0.025598 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.024753 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.013338 } ], "others_margin": 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0075, quality 0.660)", "stats": { "key_pass": 1.1219, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "assists": 0.0906, "assist_rate": 0.0906, "expected_goals": 0.0873, "goals": 0.0711, "goal_rate": 0.0711, "shots_on_target": 0.3536, "total_shots": 1.1627, "rating": 6.8988, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 36.6377, "accurate_pass": 29.7489, "duels_won": 4.6093, "total_long_balls": 2.7132, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5675, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0646, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6842, "crosses_total": 2.2288, "crosses_accurate": 0.2775, "touches": 52.0002, "possession_lost": 12.9277, "dispossessed": 1.6418, "duels_lost": 4.9378, "aerial_won": 0.2664, "aerial_lost": 0.7461, "interceptions": 0.8202, "tackles_won": 1.0073, "tackles": 1.9273, 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1.1219, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "assists": 0.0906, "assist_rate": 0.0906, "expected_goals": 0.0877, "goals": 0.0714, "goal_rate": 0.0714, "shots_on_target": 0.3553, "total_shots": 1.1683, "rating": 6.8988, "minutes": 77.33, "total_pass": 36.6377, "accurate_pass": 29.7489, "duels_won": 4.6093, "total_long_balls": 2.7132, "accurate_long_balls": 1.5675, "total_own_half_passes": 12.3427, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10.0646, "total_opp_half_passes": 24.2951, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19.6842, "crosses_total": 2.2288, "crosses_accurate": 0.2775, "touches": 52.0002, "possession_lost": 12.9277, "dispossessed": 1.6418, "duels_lost": 4.9378, "aerial_won": 1.1, "aerial_lost": 0.7461, "interceptions": 0.8202, "tackles_won": 1.0073, "tackles": 1.9273, "clearances": 0.5728, "total_contest": 1.5294, "won_contest": 0.9613, "challenges_lost": 0.6992, "fouls": 1.2825, "fouls_drawn": 1.4543, "blocks": 0.1242, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0483, "xgot": 0.0648, "ball_carries": 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"1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Moisés Caicedo, Jordan Henderson", "opponent_faced": "Moisés Caicedo, Jordan Henderson", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8816, "creation_factor": 0.8826 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0877, "after": 0.0978 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.1093, "after": 0.1219 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. 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"ranking": 1909 }, { "player_name": "Pape Matar Sarr", "ranking": 1910 }, { "player_name": "Christian Moreno", "ranking": 1911 }, { "player_name": "Juan Fuentes", "ranking": 1912 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.75, "history_matches": 34, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", "wonTackle", "possessionLostCtrl", "dispossessed", "passValueNormalized", "dribbleValueNormalized", "defensiveValueNormalized", "shotValueNormalized", "ballCarriesCount", "totalProgression", "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "goalAssist", "expectedGoals", "goals", "onTargetScoringAttempt", "rating", 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"onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0305 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.028 } ], "others": -0.1213, "total": 0.8907, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132385 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.052055 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.04994 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.030461 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.027971 } ], "others_margin": -0.121334 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.847248077392578, "model_output": 6.8472, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.034 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0186 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0163 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0148 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0102 } ], "others": -0.0025, "total": 6.8472, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.034003 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.018598 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.016267 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.014791 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.010169 } ], "others_margin": -0.002465 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 25, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.859)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goals": 0.0552, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "shots_on_target": 0.2047, "total_shots": 0.9028, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.3513, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, "big_chances_created": 0.0779, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 14.0141, "total_progression": 21.4872, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.6981 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 63000000, "quality_factor": 0.8589, "boost_factor": 1.0136, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0572, "goals": 0.0552, "goal_rate": 0.0552, "shots_on_target": 0.2047, "total_shots": 0.9028, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.3513, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, "big_chances_created": 0.0779, "big_chances_missed": 0.0616, "xgot": 0.0191, "ball_carries": 14.0141, "total_progression": 21.4872, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.6981 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goals": 0.0547, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "shots_on_target": 0.203, "total_shots": 0.8952, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, "big_chances_created": 0.0779, "big_chances_missed": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 14.0141, "total_progression": 21.4872, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.6922, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moisés Caicedo", "opponent_faced": "Moisés Caicedo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Moisés Caicedo", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "skill_edge": -0.0098, "height_edge": 0.004, "attacker_skill": 0.876, "defender_skill": 0.8978, "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_mv_price_index": 0.85, "defender_adjusted_parts": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "market_value": 104000000, "role": "CDM", "price_index": 0.85, "adjusted_quality": 0.8978 } ], "xg_override": 0.0567 } }, "changes": [ { "stat": "aerialWon", "before": 1.3513, "after": 1.0 }, { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.9028, "after": 0.8952 }, { "stat": "shotOffTarget", "before": 0.6981, "after": 0.6922 } ] }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0567, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.203, "total_shots": 0.8952, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, "big_chances_created": 0.0779, "big_chances_missed": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0189, "ball_carries": 14.0141, "total_progression": 21.4872, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.6922, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moisés Caicedo", "opponent_faced": "Moisés Caicedo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.203, "total_shots": 0.8952, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, "big_chances_created": 0.0779, "big_chances_missed": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 14.0141, "total_progression": 21.4872, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.6922, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moisés Caicedo", "opponent_faced": "Moisés Caicedo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9813, "creation_factor": 1.1397 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0567, "after": 0.0632 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 12 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.203, "total_shots": 0.8952, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, 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"fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.203, "total_shots": 0.8952, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, "big_chances_created": 0.0779, "big_chances_missed": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 14.0141, "total_progression": 21.4872, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.6922, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moisés Caicedo", "opponent_faced": "Moisés Caicedo", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0612, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9813, "creation_factor": 1.1397, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0612, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "scorer_weight": 0.062, "squad_weight_total": 1.4656, "weight_share": 0.0423, "finishing_factor": 0.9813, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.3991, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3991, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2902 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5987, "expected_assists": 0.044, "assist_rate": 0.052, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0547, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.203, "total_shots": 0.8952, "rating": 6.8472, "minutes": 74.13, "total_pass": 35.8729, "accurate_pass": 31.183, "duels_won": 4.2925, "total_long_balls": 2.7568, "accurate_long_balls": 1.4941, "total_own_half_passes": 19.4974, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18.059, "total_opp_half_passes": 16.3754, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13.124, "crosses_total": 0.0, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 48.6498, "possession_lost": 7.6311, "dispossessed": 1.0088, "duels_lost": 4.2179, "aerial_won": 1.0, "aerial_lost": 1.0153, "interceptions": 1.3665, "tackles_won": 0.9381, "tackles": 1.361, "clearances": 1.2895, "total_contest": 0.968, "won_contest": 0.5086, "challenges_lost": 0.6438, "fouls": 1.0906, "fouls_drawn": 1.0716, "blocks": 0.3852, "big_chances_created": 0.0779, "big_chances_missed": 0.0611, "xgot": 0.0211, "ball_carries": 14.0141, "total_progression": 21.4872, "progressive_carries": 0.5103, "shots_off_target": 0.6922, "duel_xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "dribbles_attempted": 2.0, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Moisés Caicedo", 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"opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": 0.1239 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": -0.0737 } ], "others": 0.1391, "total": 1.6787, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.157563 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.132674 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.102905 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.079922 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": -0.046788 } ], "others_margin": 0.086521 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.4032078981399536, "model_output": 0.4032, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0982 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0508 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0194 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0115 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": 0.0093 } ], "others": -0.0451, "total": 0.4032, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.098178 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.050753 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.019355 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.011544 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": 0.009316 } ], "others_margin": -0.045034 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.842935085296631, "model_output": 6.8429, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0378 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0141 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "contribution": 0.0125 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0091 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "contribution": -0.0088 } ], "others": 0.0109, "total": 6.8429, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.037755 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.014124 }, { "name": "duel_win_rate", "margin": 0.012521 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.009106 }, { "name": "errorLeadToAShot", "margin": -0.008796 } ], "others_margin": 0.010957 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 20, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0136, quality 0.732)", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.8332, "tackles": 1.3628, "tackles_won": 0.7836, "clearances": 4.3606, "aerial_won": 1.7015, "total_shots": 0.4087, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 82.22, "total_pass": 51.8262, "accurate_pass": 46.3012, "duels_won": 5.0513, "total_long_balls": 3.9204, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6738, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.5355, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7658, "crosses_total": 0.0767, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 62.6672, "possession_lost": 6.277, "dispossessed": 0.1871, "duels_lost": 2.272, "aerial_lost": 0.9642, "total_contest": 0.5939, "won_contest": 0.4536, "ball_recovery": 3.5495, "challenges_lost": 0.3314, "fouls": 0.649, "fouls_drawn": 1.1588, "blocks": 0.6481, "goals": 0.0, 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"matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 0.826, "tackles": 1.3628, "tackles_won": 0.7768, "clearances": 4.3606, "aerial_won": 1.7015, "total_shots": 0.421, "rating": 6.8429, "minutes": 82.22, "total_pass": 51.8262, "accurate_pass": 46.3012, "duels_won": 5.0513, "total_long_balls": 3.9204, "accurate_long_balls": 1.6738, "total_own_half_passes": 37.4917, "accurate_own_half_passes": 34.5355, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.3344, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11.7658, "crosses_total": 0.076, "crosses_accurate": 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false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.064194 }, { "name": "interceptionWon_p90", "margin": 0.028072 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.020788 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "margin": 0.018988 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.017191 } ], "others_margin": -0.022841 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.696633338928223, "model_output": 6.6966, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": -0.0215 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0164 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0147 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0121 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0114 } ], "others": -0.0228, "total": 6.6966, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.021495 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.016447 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.014691 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.012126 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.011436 } ], "others_margin": -0.022686 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "starter", "history_matches": 37, "role_matches": 21, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0102, quality 0.791)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.3362, "tackles": 1.8467, "tackles_won": 1.0795, "clearances": 3.7479, "aerial_won": 1.274, "total_shots": 0.5691, "rating": 6.6966, "minutes": 84.0, "total_pass": 46.1627, "accurate_pass": 40.5501, "duels_won": 4.1507, "total_long_balls": 2.5477, "accurate_long_balls": 1.1661, "total_own_half_passes": 25.6909, "accurate_own_half_passes": 23.3492, "total_opp_half_passes": 20.4718, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.2011, "crosses_total": 0.0937, "crosses_accurate": 0.0084, "touches": 62.0258, "possession_lost": 7.4182, "dispossessed": 0.1889, "duels_lost": 3.4311, "aerial_lost": 2.0047, "total_contest": 0.253, "won_contest": 0.253, "ball_recovery": 3.9142, "challenges_lost": 0.7209, "fouls": 0.5166, "fouls_drawn": 0.5205, "blocks": 0.3717, "goals": 0.0, 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{ "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1458 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": 0.0492 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": 0.023 }, { "name": "duelWon", "contribution": 0.0227 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0196 } ], "others": -0.0104, "total": 0.7284, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.145798 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": 0.049173 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": 0.022954 }, { "name": "duelWon", "margin": 0.022667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.019618 } ], "others_margin": -0.010329 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.7818403244018555, "model_output": 6.7818, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": 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"role": "starter", "history_matches": 42, "role_matches": 35, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0063, quality 0.702)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.047, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4317, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.733, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6469, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.963, "fouls_drawn": 0.4982, "blocks": 0.2083, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0165, "assist_rate": 0.0165, "expected_goals": 0.0552, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.1325, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0387, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 28000000, "quality_factor": 0.7022, "boost_factor": 1.0063, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 42, "history_shrink": 0.1064, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0041)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "expected_goals": 0.0552, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0387, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0041, "history_matches": 42, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.9806, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "totalShots", "before": 0.733, "after": 0.7474 }, { "stat": "totalCross", "before": 2.6469, "after": 2.6585 } ] }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "expected_goals": 0.0552, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0387, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goals": 0.0022, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "assists": 0.0164, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "expected_goals": 0.0552, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0387, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0552, "expected_assists": 0.0546, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0387, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0552, "after": 0.0615 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0546, "after": 0.0609 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 15 by projected rating, fifa_overall 78.0)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 2123, "fifa_rank": 1095.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 78.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0596, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0596, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "scorer_weight": 0.0492, "squad_weight_total": 1.4656, "weight_share": 0.0336, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 9, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.3991, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3991, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2902 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "interceptions": 1.0517, "tackles": 2.0562, "tackles_won": 1.4303, "clearances": 3.0424, "aerial_won": 2.0603, "total_shots": 0.7474, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 88.25, "total_pass": 43.1666, "accurate_pass": 34.3053, "duels_won": 6.6289, "total_long_balls": 3.6573, "accurate_long_balls": 1.2781, "total_own_half_passes": 19.8202, "accurate_own_half_passes": 16.6679, "total_opp_half_passes": 23.3465, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 17.6373, "crosses_total": 2.6585, "crosses_accurate": 0.6576, "touches": 66.8305, "possession_lost": 14.5811, "dispossessed": 0.318, "duels_lost": 4.1337, "aerial_lost": 1.266, "total_contest": 2.0229, "won_contest": 1.0159, "ball_recovery": 5.8033, "challenges_lost": 0.5796, "fouls": 0.959, "fouls_drawn": 0.4961, "blocks": 0.2083, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 0, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0615, "expected_assists": 0.0609, "shots_on_target": 0.1363, "big_chances_created": 0.1265, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 15.2933, "total_progression": 84.6922, "progressive_carries": 2.9865, "key_pass": 1.4348, "shots_off_target": 0.6005, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer", "pressing_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0596, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0591, "finishing_factor": 0.8, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0591, "assist_rate": 0.0164, "provider_weight": 0.0487, "squad_weight_total": 0.9934, "weight_share": 0.049, "creation_factor": 0.8, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "weight_rank": 8, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.2738, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2738, "runner_up": "Mason Mount", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1076, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Senne Lammens": { "player_id": 964753, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { 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normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0088, quality 0.770)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8728, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1552, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 38000000, "quality_factor": 0.7699, "boost_factor": 1.0088, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 40, "history_shrink": 0.1111, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0096)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0096, "history_matches": 40, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 1.0, "prior_reliability": 0.1333, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "enriched_model_output", "description": "Model output after duel-context enrichment (pre router post-processing)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8102, "shots_faced": 17.2, "expected_saves": 4.21, "high_pressure_saves": 1.45, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback" }, "params": { "duel_context_applied": true, "duel_context": { "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "opponent_lambda": 1.8102 } } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8102, "shots_faced": 17.2, "expected_saves": 4.21, "high_pressure_saves": 1.45, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8102, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 1.0 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "shots_faced", "before": 17.2, "after": 15.8 }, { "stat": "expected_saves", "before": 4.21, "after": 3.87 }, { "stat": "high_pressure_saves", "before": 1.45, "after": 1.33 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 10 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8102, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 551, "fifa_rank": 381.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8102, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "scorer_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 1.4656, "weight_share": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.3991, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3991, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2902 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "saves": 2.8692, "goals_prevented": -0.0278, "rating": 6.8795, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 27.4518, "accurate_pass": 17.8605, "total_long_balls": 14.0981, "accurate_long_balls": 4.6316, "touches": 35.2478, "clearances": 0.7253, "ball_recovery": 7.4784, "high_claims": 1.0109, "punches": 0.6251, "aerial_won": 0.2457, "sweeper_actions": 0.7482, "sweeper_accurate": 0.542, "saves_inside_box": 2.1164, "possession_lost": 9.6349, "duels_won": 0.4005, "duels_lost": 0.1672, "total_contest": 0.0, "won_contest": 0.0, "fouls": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 0.1537, "total_own_half_passes": 16.9993, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14.5147, "gk_engine_opponent_lambda": 1.8102, "shots_faced": 15.8, "expected_saves": 3.87, "high_pressure_saves": 1.33, "opponent_faced": "Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "provider_weight": 0.0, "squad_weight_total": 0.9934, "weight_share": 0.0, "creation_factor": 1.0, "appearance_weight": 1.0, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.2738, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2738, "runner_up": "Mason Mount", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1076, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "bench_players": { "André Onana": { "player_id": 787498, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 190, "market_value": 9300000, "stats": { "saves": 0, "goals_prevented": 0.0266, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 5, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 2, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0209, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 0, "possession_lost": 0.1305, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.123, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.7, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3307, "combined_rank_score": 1262.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 1262.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "name", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "André Onana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abel Bretones", "ranking": 3302 }, { "player_name": "Chiquinho", "ranking": 3303 }, { "player_name": "Kaiki", "ranking": 3304 }, { "player_name": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "ranking": 3305 }, { "player_name": "Diego Carlos", "ranking": 3306 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luca Ranieri", "ranking": 3308 }, { "player_name": "Răzvan Marin", "ranking": 3309 }, { "player_name": "Diego Coppola", "ranking": 3310 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Rosario", "ranking": 3311 }, { "player_name": "Víctor Gómez", "ranking": 3312 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "data_confidence": 0.25, "history_matches": 0, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "market_value_prior", "position_service": "G_service", "features_evaluated": [], "targets_predicted": [], "history_matches": 0, "data_confidence": 0.25, "data_sources": [ "market_value" ], "bench_expected_minutes": 4.6962305853965045, "bench_appearance_prob": 0.12255593569984113, "market_value_adjustment": 0.5142, "fbref_prior_metrics": null, "rationale": "Bench projection from market-value prior (€9,300,000) scaled to 4.7 expected mins." }, "stat_evolution": [ { "step": "market_value_prior", "description": "Market-value baseline for position G (quality 0.51)", "stats": { "saves": 3.1, "goals_prevented": 0.51, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 90.0, "total_pass": 28.0, "accurate_pass": 21.0, "total_long_balls": 9.0, "accurate_long_balls": 5.0, "touches": 33.0, "clearances": 1.0, "ball_recovery": 1.3, "high_claims": 0.6, "punches": 0.4, "aerial_won": 0.7, "sweeper_actions": 1.3, "sweeper_accurate": 0.8, "saves_inside_box": 1.3, "possession_lost": 2.5, "duels_won": 0.5, "duels_lost": 0.3, "total_contest": 0.5, "won_contest": 0.3, "fouls": 0.2, "fouls_drawn": 0.1, "total_own_half_passes": 22.0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17.0 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 9300000, "quality_factor": 0.5142 } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 90.0 to 4.7 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.12)", "stats": { "saves": 0.1618, "goals_prevented": 0.0266, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 4.7, "total_pass": 1.461, "accurate_pass": 1.0958, "total_long_balls": 0.4696, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2609, "touches": 1.722, "clearances": 0.0522, "ball_recovery": 0.0678, "high_claims": 0.0313, "punches": 0.0209, "aerial_won": 0.0365, "sweeper_actions": 0.0678, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0417, "saves_inside_box": 0.0678, "possession_lost": 0.1305, "duels_won": 0.0261, "duels_lost": 0.0157, "total_contest": 0.0261, "won_contest": 0.0157, "fouls": 0.0104, "fouls_drawn": 0.0052, "total_own_half_passes": 1.148, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8871, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.123, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.7 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 4.7, "projection_minutes": 90.0, "minutes_scale": 0.0522, "appearance_probability": 0.123 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "saves": 0.1618, "goals_prevented": 0.0266, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 4.7, "total_pass": 1.461, "accurate_pass": 1.0958, "total_long_balls": 0.4696, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2609, "touches": 1.722, "clearances": 0.0522, "ball_recovery": 0.0678, "high_claims": 0.0313, "punches": 0.0209, "aerial_won": 0.0365, "sweeper_actions": 0.0678, "sweeper_accurate": 0.0417, "saves_inside_box": 0.0678, "possession_lost": 0.1305, "duels_won": 0.0261, "duels_lost": 0.0157, "total_contest": 0.0261, "won_contest": 0.0157, "fouls": 0.0104, "fouls_drawn": 0.0052, "total_own_half_passes": 1.148, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0.8871, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.123, "bench_expected_minutes": 4.7 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "not_projected_to_play", "description": "Not among the projected substitutes: no share of the team's goals or assists", "stats": { "saves": 0.1618, "goals_prevented": 0.0266, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 4.7, "total_pass": 1.461, "accurate_pass": 1.0958, "total_long_balls": 0.4696, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2609, "touches": 1.722, "clearances": 0.0522, "ball_recovery": 0.0678, "high_claims": 0.0313, "punches": 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"aerialWon", "importance": 0.1535 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "importance": 0.0722 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "importance": 0.04 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "importance": 0.0282 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 1.3776, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.7906 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.1083 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "contribution": 0.0203 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "contribution": -0.0134 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "contribution": 0.0092 } ], "others": -0.0126, "total": 0.4822, "log_link": true, "margin_base": 0.320358, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.853096 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.204049 }, { "name": "totalClearance_p90", "margin": 0.041633 }, { "name": "press_vulnerability", "margin": -0.027182 }, { "name": "totalClearance", "margin": 0.018828 } ], "others_margin": -0.025938 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3939652442932129, "model_output": 0.394, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.226 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1251 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0295 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": 0.0231 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "contribution": -0.0188 } ], "others": -0.0174, "total": 0.394, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.226037 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.12505 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.029493 }, { "name": "history_matches", "margin": 0.023096 }, { "name": "duelWon_p90", "margin": -0.018814 } ], "others_margin": -0.017363 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.94609260559082, "model_output": 6.9461, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0906 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0563 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0496 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0303 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0259 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7955, "items": [ { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0567 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.039 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0341 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0221 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": 0.0182 } ], "others": 0.0585, "total": 6.9461, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.795516, "item_margins": [ { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.056664 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.03895 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.034105 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.022068 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.018179 } ], 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"name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": 0.050636 } ], "others_margin": 0.142114 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.3771522343158722, "model_output": 0.3772, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1021 }, { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0667 }, { "name": "history_matches", "importance": 0.0336 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0292 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "importance": 0.0274 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.4785, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2173 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": 0.1601 }, { "name": "history_matches", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.0162 }, { "name": "progressive_carries_p90", "contribution": -0.0143 } ], "others": -0.0286, "total": 0.3772, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.47854, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.217283 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.16008 }, { "name": 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"contribution": -0.0021 } ], "others": -0.0063, "total": 0.0297, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.392179, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.518873 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.149775 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.139746 }, { "name": "pass_accuracy", "margin": -0.066126 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.056529 } ], "others_margin": -0.194258 } }, { "target": "goals", "predicted": 0.0364682637155056, "model_output": 0.0365, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.0997 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0571 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0408 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0322 }, { "name": "creative_efficiency", "importance": 0.0292 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.095, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0303 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0101 }, { "name": "totalShots", 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"name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1334 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.0205 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "contribution": -0.015 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "contribution": -0.0096 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0081 } ], "others": -0.0303, "total": 0.1014, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -1.144772, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.543033 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.117378 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "margin": -0.09582 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.066358 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.060012 } ], "others_margin": -0.26094 } }, { "target": "totalShots", "predicted": 0.35329294204711914, "model_output": 0.3533, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalShots", "importance": 0.1344 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1196 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "importance": 0.0517 }, { "name": "expectedGoals", "importance": 0.0474 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "importance": 0.0302 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.9841, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.3576 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "contribution": -0.05 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.046 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "contribution": -0.0316 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": -0.0284 } ], "others": -0.1172, "total": 0.3533, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.357579 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.049979 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04601 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031605 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.028393 } ], "others_margin": -0.117249 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.075158596038818, "model_output": 7.0752, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1709 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0651 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "contribution": 0.0325 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "contribution": -0.0245 } ], "others": 0.1132, "total": 7.0752, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "rating", "margin": 0.170878 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.13724 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.065073 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.032472 }, { "name": "defensive_midfield_actions", "margin": -0.024511 } ], "others_margin": 0.113292 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 13, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.879)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5594, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.0523, "assist_rate": 0.0523, "expected_goals": 0.0301, "goals": 0.037, "goal_rate": 0.037, "shots_on_target": 0.1029, "total_shots": 0.3584, "rating": 7.0752, "minutes": 19.4, "total_pass": 17.274, "accurate_pass": 15.2269, "duels_won": 1.4871, "total_long_balls": 0.6006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2624, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4332, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2425, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8408, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9843, "crosses_total": 0.5274, "crosses_accurate": 0.1014, "touches": 21.774, "possession_lost": 3.3376, "dispossessed": 0.2027, "duels_lost": 1.3741, "aerial_won": 0.3447, "aerial_lost": 0.5893, "interceptions": 0.0653, "tackles_won": 0.1007, "tackles": 0.235, "clearances": 0.6802, "total_contest": 0.6601, "won_contest": 0.5136, "challenges_lost": 0.1715, "fouls": 0.389, "fouls_drawn": 0.3938, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0321, "total_progression": 35.8331, "progressive_carries": 0.6201, "shots_off_target": 0.2555 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 77000000, "quality_factor": 0.8792, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0061)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.5594, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0.052, "assist_rate": 0.052, "expected_goals": 0.0301, "goals": 0.0368, "goal_rate": 0.0368, "shots_on_target": 0.1023, "total_shots": 0.3608, "rating": 7.0752, "minutes": 19.4, "total_pass": 17.274, "accurate_pass": 15.2269, "duels_won": 1.4871, "total_long_balls": 0.6006, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2624, "total_own_half_passes": 5.4332, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.2425, "total_opp_half_passes": 11.8408, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9.9843, "crosses_total": 0.5254, "crosses_accurate": 0.1014, "touches": 21.774, "possession_lost": 3.3376, "dispossessed": 0.2027, "duels_lost": 1.3741, "aerial_won": 0.3447, "aerial_lost": 0.5893, "interceptions": 0.0673, "tackles_won": 0.1025, "tackles": 0.235, "clearances": 0.6802, "total_contest": 0.6601, "won_contest": 0.5136, "challenges_lost": 0.1715, "fouls": 0.3866, "fouls_drawn": 0.3938, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 8.0321, "total_progression": 35.8331, "progressive_carries": 0.6201, "shots_off_target": 0.2555 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0061, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2156, "prior_reliability": 0.0733, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.4 to 23.9 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.54)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6883, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 7.0752, "minutes": 23.87, "total_pass": 21.2541, "accurate_pass": 18.7354, "duels_won": 1.8297, "total_long_balls": 0.739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3229, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4504, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5691, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12.2848, "crosses_total": 0.6465, "crosses_accurate": 0.1248, "touches": 26.791, "possession_lost": 4.1066, "dispossessed": 0.2027, "duels_lost": 1.6907, "aerial_won": 0.4241, "aerial_lost": 0.5893, "interceptions": 0.0828, "tackles_won": 0.1261, "tackles": 0.2891, "clearances": 0.8369, "total_contest": 0.8122, "won_contest": 0.6319, "challenges_lost": 0.1715, "fouls": 0.4757, "fouls_drawn": 0.4845, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8828, "total_progression": 44.0895, "progressive_carries": 0.763, "shots_off_target": 0.3144, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.87 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.87, "projection_minutes": 19.4, "minutes_scale": 1.2304, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6883, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 7.0752, "minutes": 23.87, "total_pass": 21.2541, "accurate_pass": 18.7354, "duels_won": 1.8297, "total_long_balls": 0.739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3229, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4504, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5691, 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6.7641, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.855195, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.101682 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", "margin": 0.02436 }, { "name": "rating", "margin": -0.02363 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.022239 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.015908 } ], "others_margin": -0.028258 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 32, "role_matches": 16, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0120, quality 0.800)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3047, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.0348, "assist_rate": 0.0348, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "goals": 0.0379, "goal_rate": 0.0379, "shots_on_target": 0.0868, "total_shots": 0.2416, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 21.56, "total_pass": 16.638, "accurate_pass": 14.9944, "duels_won": 1.611, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2603, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3571, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5114, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.483, "crosses_total": 0.0169, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5587, "possession_lost": 2.1743, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.3395, "aerial_won": 0.3017, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1515, "tackles_won": 0.1777, "tackles": 0.9596, "clearances": 0.9383, "total_contest": 0.2871, "won_contest": 0.0852, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.3455, "fouls_drawn": 0.2646, "blocks": 0.0618, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0144, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 5.5879, "total_progression": 14.2116, "progressive_carries": 0.2964, "shots_off_target": 0.1547 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 44000000, "quality_factor": 0.8002, "boost_factor": 1.012, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 32, "history_shrink": 0.1351, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0053)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.3047, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "assists": 0.0346, "assist_rate": 0.0346, "expected_goals": 0.0261, "goals": 0.0377, "goal_rate": 0.0377, "shots_on_target": 0.0863, "total_shots": 0.2403, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 21.56, "total_pass": 16.638, "accurate_pass": 14.9944, "duels_won": 1.611, "total_long_balls": 0.5227, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2603, "total_own_half_passes": 7.3571, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.5114, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.2808, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.483, "crosses_total": 0.0168, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 21.5587, "possession_lost": 2.1743, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.3395, "aerial_won": 0.3017, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1507, "tackles_won": 0.1782, "tackles": 0.9596, "clearances": 0.9383, "total_contest": 0.2871, "won_contest": 0.0852, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.3465, "fouls_drawn": 0.266, "blocks": 0.0618, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0144, "xgot": 0.0091, "ball_carries": 5.5879, "total_progression": 14.2116, "progressive_carries": 0.2964, "shots_off_target": 0.1547 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0053, "history_matches": 32, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2396, "prior_reliability": 0.06, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 21.6 to 16.6 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.53)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2343, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0.1854, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.7949, "accurate_pass": 11.5309, "duels_won": 1.2389, "total_long_balls": 0.402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6577, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0074, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.579, "possession_lost": 1.6721, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.0301, "aerial_won": 0.232, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1159, "tackles_won": 0.137, "tackles": 0.7379, "clearances": 0.7216, "total_contest": 0.2208, "won_contest": 0.0655, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.2665, "fouls_drawn": 0.2046, "blocks": 0.0475, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4.2972, "total_progression": 10.929, "progressive_carries": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.119, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 16.58, "projection_minutes": 21.56, "minutes_scale": 0.769, "appearance_probability": 0.529 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2343, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assists": 0.0266, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goals": 0.029, "goal_rate": 0.029, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0.1854, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.7949, "accurate_pass": 11.5309, "duels_won": 1.2389, "total_long_balls": 0.402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6577, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0074, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.579, "possession_lost": 1.6721, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.0301, "aerial_won": 0.232, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1159, "tackles_won": 0.137, "tackles": 0.7379, "clearances": 0.7216, "total_contest": 0.2208, "won_contest": 0.0655, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.2665, "fouls_drawn": 0.2046, "blocks": 0.0475, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4.2972, "total_progression": 10.929, "progressive_carries": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.119, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2343, "expected_assists": 0.0152, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0201, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0.1854, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.7949, "accurate_pass": 11.5309, "duels_won": 1.2389, "total_long_balls": 0.402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6577, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0074, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.579, "possession_lost": 1.6721, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.0301, "aerial_won": 0.232, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1159, "tackles_won": 0.137, "tackles": 0.7379, "clearances": 0.7216, "total_contest": 0.2208, "won_contest": 0.0655, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.2665, "fouls_drawn": 0.2046, "blocks": 0.0475, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.007, "ball_carries": 4.2972, "total_progression": 10.929, "progressive_carries": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.119, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2343, "expected_assists": 0.009, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0119, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0.1854, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.7949, "accurate_pass": 11.5309, "duels_won": 1.2389, "total_long_balls": 0.402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6577, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0074, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.579, "possession_lost": 1.6721, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.0301, "aerial_won": 0.232, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1159, "tackles_won": 0.137, "tackles": 0.7379, "clearances": 0.7216, "total_contest": 0.2208, "won_contest": 0.0655, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.2665, "fouls_drawn": 0.2046, "blocks": 0.0475, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 4.2972, "total_progression": 10.929, "progressive_carries": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.119, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.127, "creation_factor": 1.1748 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.529 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.0201, "after": 0.0119 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0152, "after": 0.009 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 16 by projected rating, fifa_overall 80.0)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2343, "expected_assists": 0.009, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0119, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0.1854, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.7949, "accurate_pass": 11.5309, "duels_won": 1.2389, "total_long_balls": 0.402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6577, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0074, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.579, "possession_lost": 1.6721, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.0301, "aerial_won": 0.232, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1159, "tackles_won": 0.137, "tackles": 0.7379, "clearances": 0.7216, "total_contest": 0.2208, "won_contest": 0.0655, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.2665, "fouls_drawn": 0.2046, "blocks": 0.0475, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 4.2972, "total_progression": 10.929, "progressive_carries": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.119, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.127, "creation_factor": 1.1748, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1467, "fifa_rank": 701.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 80.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2343, "expected_assists": 0.009, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0119, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0.1854, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.7949, "accurate_pass": 11.5309, "duels_won": 1.2389, "total_long_balls": 0.402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6577, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0074, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.579, "possession_lost": 1.6721, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.0301, "aerial_won": 0.232, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1159, "tackles_won": 0.137, "tackles": 0.7379, "clearances": 0.7216, "total_contest": 0.2208, "won_contest": 0.0655, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.2665, "fouls_drawn": 0.2046, "blocks": 0.0475, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 4.2972, "total_progression": 10.929, "progressive_carries": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.119, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0118, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 1.127, "creation_factor": 1.1748, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0118, "goal_rate": 0.029, "scorer_weight": 0.0134, "squad_weight_total": 1.4656, "weight_share": 0.0092, "finishing_factor": 1.127, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 14, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.3991, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3991, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2902 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.2343, "expected_assists": 0.009, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0119, "goal_rate": 0.029, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.0664, "total_shots": 0.1854, "rating": 6.7641, "minutes": 16.58, "total_pass": 12.7949, "accurate_pass": 11.5309, "duels_won": 1.2389, "total_long_balls": 0.402, "accurate_long_balls": 0.2002, "total_own_half_passes": 5.6577, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5.0074, "total_opp_half_passes": 7.1371, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6.5236, "crosses_total": 0.0129, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 16.579, "possession_lost": 1.6721, "dispossessed": 0.0852, "duels_lost": 1.0301, "aerial_won": 0.232, "aerial_lost": 0.403, "interceptions": 0.1159, "tackles_won": 0.137, "tackles": 0.7379, "clearances": 0.7216, "total_contest": 0.2208, "won_contest": 0.0655, "challenges_lost": 0.3485, "fouls": 0.2665, "fouls_drawn": 0.2046, "blocks": 0.0475, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0111, "xgot": 0.0041, "ball_carries": 4.2972, "total_progression": 10.929, "progressive_carries": 0.2279, "shots_off_target": 0.119, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 16.58, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0118, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0089, "finishing_factor": 1.127, "creation_factor": 1.1748, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0089, "assist_rate": 0.0266, "provider_weight": 0.0106, "squad_weight_total": 0.9934, "weight_share": 0.0106, "creation_factor": 1.1748, "appearance_weight": 0.529, "weight_rank": 12, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.2738, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2738, "runner_up": "Mason Mount", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1076, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] }, "Matheus Cunha": { "player_id": 886363, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 184, "market_value": 79000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0306, 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0.0483 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0376 } ], "others": 0.0693, "total": 0.7017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.481491 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.137503 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115702 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.084686 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.061246 } ], "others_margin": 0.103922 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.781824588775635, "model_output": 6.7818, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0997 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0255 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "contribution": -0.022 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0217 }, { "name": "touches", "contribution": 0.0184 } ], "others": 0.0671, "total": 6.7818, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.099721 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": 0.025532 }, { "name": "ballRecovery", "margin": -0.021951 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.021744 }, { "name": "touches", "margin": 0.018359 } ], "others_margin": 0.067016 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 41, "role_matches": 6, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.881)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0882, "goals": 0.0857, "goal_rate": 0.0857, "shots_on_target": 0.378, "total_shots": 1.0716, "expected_assists": 0.0661, "key_pass": 0.7103, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 24.11, "total_pass": 13.2156, "accurate_pass": 10.4421, "duels_won": 3.2772, "total_long_balls": 0.7455, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3935, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3871, "crosses_total": 0.2579, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 23.5919, "possession_lost": 7.0277, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 3.6412, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.5579, "won_contest": 0.6289, "ball_recovery": 2.1469, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.4876, "fouls_drawn": 1.0753, "assists": 0.1497, "assist_rate": 0.1497, "interceptions": 0.2355, "tackles_won": 0.6373, "tackles": 1.1129, "clearances": 0.1761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1813, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0377, "offsides": 0.1497, "ball_carries": 6.4547, "total_progression": 37.7392, "progressive_carries": 0.9646, "shots_off_target": 0.6935 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 79000000, "quality_factor": 0.8811, "boost_factor": 1.0123, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 41, "history_shrink": 0.1087, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0085)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0882, "goals": 0.085, "goal_rate": 0.085, "shots_on_target": 0.3774, "total_shots": 1.069, "expected_assists": 0.0661, "key_pass": 0.7103, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 24.11, "total_pass": 13.2156, "accurate_pass": 10.4421, "duels_won": 3.2772, "total_long_balls": 0.7455, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3935, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3871, "crosses_total": 0.2608, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 23.5919, "possession_lost": 7.0277, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 3.6412, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.5579, "won_contest": 0.6289, "ball_recovery": 2.1469, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.4847, "fouls_drawn": 1.07, "assists": 0.1497, "assist_rate": 0.1497, "interceptions": 0.2335, "tackles_won": 0.6319, "tackles": 1.1129, "clearances": 0.1761, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.1813, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0377, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 6.4547, "total_progression": 37.7392, "progressive_carries": 0.9646, "shots_off_target": 0.6935 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0085, "history_matches": 41, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2679, "prior_reliability": 0.12, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" }, "changes": [ { "stat": "wonTackle", "before": 0.6373, "after": 0.6319 }, { "stat": "wasFouled", "before": 1.0753, "after": 1.07 } ] }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 24.1 to 27.0 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.37)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assists": 0.1679, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0423, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 27.05, "projection_minutes": 24.11, "minutes_scale": 1.1219, "appearance_probability": 0.37 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goals": 0.0954, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assists": 0.1679, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0423, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0423, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.37 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.099, "after": 0.0408 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0742, "after": 0.0306 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 356, "fifa_rank": 201.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "scorer_weight": 0.0398, "squad_weight_total": 1.4656, "weight_share": 0.0272, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "appearance_weight": 0.37, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.3991, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3991, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2902 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, 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"contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0128, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744073, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.405283 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.322446 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.161482 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.112024 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.104777 } ], "others_margin": -0.508138 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.27944833040237427, "model_output": 0.2794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1455 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2729 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 0.2794, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506416 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09676 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.082011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051661 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047115 } ], "others_margin": -0.115172 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.632852554321289, "model_output": 6.6329, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0717 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 6.6329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071668 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010482 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009951 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008442 } ], "others_margin": -0.026557 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1248, "goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1203, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "total_shots": 0.9174, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.2835, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5237 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1248, "goals": 0.12, "goal_rate": 0.12, "shots_on_target": 0.3928, "total_shots": 0.9166, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.2835, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3499, "fouls_drawn": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5237 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2216, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1381, "goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 19.94, "minutes_scale": 1.1068, "appearance_probability": 0.755 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1381, "goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1381, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.162, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9718, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1381, "after": 0.1162 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.162, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9718, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1116, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.162, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1077, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9718, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1077, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "scorer_weight": 0.1129, "squad_weight_total": 1.4656, "weight_share": 0.077, "finishing_factor": 0.9718, "appearance_weight": 0.755, "weight_rank": 4, 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"total": 0.9044, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 1.380151, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.592578 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": 0.072793 }, { "name": "opp_half_pass_pct", "margin": -0.040144 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": 0.039692 }, { "name": "shot_accuracy", "margin": 0.033781 } ], "others_margin": 0.010709 } }, { "target": "expectedAssists", "predicted": 0.012801109813153744, "model_output": 0.0128, "scale": "per match (raw)", "top_features": [ { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.1025 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.0785 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0557 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0538 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0536 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.0643, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0214 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0118 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0046 }, { "name": "keyPass", "contribution": -0.0028 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "contribution": -0.0024 } ], "others": -0.0085, "total": 0.0128, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -2.744073, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.405283 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.322446 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.161482 }, { "name": "keyPass", "margin": -0.112024 }, { "name": "aerialWon", "margin": -0.104777 } ], "others_margin": -0.508138 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.27944833040237427, "model_output": 0.2794, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1455 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2729 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0382 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": -0.0296 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0174 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "contribution": -0.0151 } ], "others": -0.0341, "total": 0.2794, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.506416 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.09676 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": -0.082011 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.051661 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": -0.047115 } ], "others_margin": -0.115172 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.632852554321289, "model_output": 6.6329, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0717 }, { "name": "totalShots", "contribution": -0.0109 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": -0.0105 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "contribution": -0.01 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "contribution": -0.0084 } ], "others": -0.0264, "total": 6.6329, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 6.770844, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.071668 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.010893 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": -0.010482 }, { "name": "progressiveBallCarriesCount", "margin": -0.009951 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": -0.008442 } ], "others_margin": -0.026557 } } ], "prediction_basis": { "source": "xgboost_regressor", "role": "substitute", "history_matches": 34, "role_matches": 17, "minutes_source": "role_history_shrunk", "volume_basis": "role_history" }, "caveat": "Raw XGBoost output: no per-90 normalization; minutesPlayed is the recency-weighted average of his appearances in this role (starter / substitute). Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0144, quality 0.880)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1248, "goals": 0.1203, "goal_rate": 0.1203, "shots_on_target": 0.3937, "total_shots": 0.9174, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.2835, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1174, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3494, "fouls_drawn": 0.0376, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0427, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5237 }, "params": { "market_value_eur": 78000000, "quality_factor": 0.8802, "boost_factor": 1.0144, "reference_quality": 0.505, "history_matches": 34, "history_shrink": 0.1282, "market_value_known": true } }, { "step": "fbref_prior_blend", "description": "FBref 2026-27 prior blended (weight 0.0022)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1248, "goals": 0.12, "goal_rate": 0.12, "shots_on_target": 0.3928, "total_shots": 0.9166, "expected_assists": 0.013, "key_pass": 0.2835, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 19.94, "total_pass": 5.0172, "accurate_pass": 3.8171, "duels_won": 0.8122, "total_long_balls": 0.0263, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0263, "total_opp_half_passes": 2.8035, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1.9677, "crosses_total": 0.1184, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 8.2164, "possession_lost": 2.3905, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.1923, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.4983, "won_contest": 0.2263, "ball_recovery": 1.1474, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3499, "fouls_drawn": 0.0375, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1618, "blocks": 0.0197, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1558, "xgot": 0.1738, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.3972, "total_progression": 9.0296, "progressive_carries": 0.534, "shots_off_target": 0.5237 }, "params": { "blend_weight": 0.0022, "history_matches": 34, "season_overlap_discount": 1.0, "per90_to_match_factor": 0.2216, "prior_reliability": 0.0267, "competition": "Premier League", "squad": "Manchester Utd" } }, { "step": "minutes_scale", "description": "Bench projection scaled from 19.9 to 22.1 expected minutes (appearance prob 0.76)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1381, "goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 22.07, "projection_minutes": 19.94, "minutes_scale": 1.1068, "appearance_probability": 0.755 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1381, "goals": 0.1328, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assists": 0.0, "assist_rate": 0.0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1381, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.1924, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.162, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9718, "creation_factor": 0.8 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.755 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.1381, "after": 0.1162 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 18 by projected rating, fifa_overall 82.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.1724, "xgot": 0.162, "offsides": 0.0426, "ball_carries": 2.6533, "total_progression": 9.9941, "progressive_carries": 0.591, "shots_off_target": 0.5796, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.755, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.07, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9718, "creation_factor": 0.8, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 1116, "fifa_rank": 386.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 82.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1162, "goal_rate": 0.1328, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4348, "total_shots": 1.0145, "expected_assists": 0.0121, "key_pass": 0.3138, "rating": 6.6329, "minutes": 22.07, "total_pass": 5.5531, "accurate_pass": 4.2248, "duels_won": 0.899, "total_long_balls": 0.0291, "accurate_long_balls": 0.0291, "total_opp_half_passes": 3.103, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2.1779, "crosses_total": 0.131, "crosses_accurate": 0.0, "touches": 9.0941, "possession_lost": 2.6459, "dispossessed": 0.2988, "duels_lost": 2.4265, "aerial_lost": 1.2658, "total_contest": 0.5515, "won_contest": 0.2505, "ball_recovery": 1.27, "challenges_lost": 0.0231, "fouls": 0.3873, "fouls_drawn": 0.0415, "assist_rate": 0.0, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.0, "tackles_won": 0.0, "tackles": 0.0, "clearances": 0.1791, "blocks": 0.0218, 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0.3533, "log_link": false, "margin_base": 0.984109, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.357579 }, { "name": "interceptionWon", "margin": -0.049979 }, { "name": "totalShots", "margin": -0.04601 }, { "name": "onTargetScoringAttempt", "margin": -0.031605 }, { "name": "totalPass", "margin": -0.028393 } ], "others_margin": -0.117249 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 7.075158596038818, "model_output": 7.0752, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0876 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0829 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0504 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0471 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "importance": 0.0357 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.8552, "items": [ { "name": "rating", "contribution": 0.1709 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.1372 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0651 }, { "name": "ballCarriesCount_p90", 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0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.0, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9.8828, "total_progression": 44.0895, "progressive_carries": 0.763, "shots_off_target": 0.3144, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.87 }, "params": { "expected_minutes": 23.87, "projection_minutes": 19.4, "minutes_scale": 1.2304, "appearance_probability": 0.535 } }, { "step": "final_cap", "description": "Stats clamped to historical constraints and shot-component identity", "stats": { "key_pass": 0.6883, "expected_assists": 0.0519, "assists": 0.064, "assist_rate": 0.064, "expected_goals": 0.037, "goals": 0.0453, "goal_rate": 0.0453, "shots_on_target": 0.1259, "total_shots": 0.4439, "rating": 7.0752, "minutes": 23.87, "total_pass": 21.2541, "accurate_pass": 18.7354, "duels_won": 1.8297, "total_long_balls": 0.739, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3229, "total_own_half_passes": 6.6851, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6.4504, "total_opp_half_passes": 14.5691, 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"expected_assists": 0.0172, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1467, "combined_rank_score": 606.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 511.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 701.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "ranking_match": "player_id", "projected_match_rating": 6.7641, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Andrey Santos", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bekhruz Shaydulov", "ranking": 1462 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Palma", "ranking": 1463 }, { "player_name": "Ahmadullo Muqimjonov", "ranking": 1464 }, { "player_name": "Kirill Pechenin", "ranking": 1465 }, { "player_name": "Paulinho", "ranking": 1466 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Miloš Kerkez", "ranking": 1468 }, { "player_name": "Misael Llantén", "ranking": 1469 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Graciani", "ranking": 1470 }, { "player_name": "Hyeong-won Kim", "ranking": 1471 }, { "player_name": "Matías Fernández-Pardo", "ranking": 1472 } ] } }, "data_sources": [ "match_history", "market_value", "fbref_season" ], "data_confidence": 0.759, "history_matches": 32, "xgboost_reasoning": { "model_source": "xgboost_regressor", "position_service": "M_service", "features_evaluated": [ "minutesPlayed", "is_starting_11", "totalPass", "accuratePass", "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "totalShots", "keyPass", "expectedAssists", "totalCross", "accurateCross", "duelWon", "duelLost", "aerialWon", "ballRecovery", "touches", "interceptionWon", 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"item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.407768 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.177165 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.094489 }, { "name": "touches_p90", "margin": 0.064687 }, { "name": "possessionLostCtrl", "margin": 0.054826 } ], "others_margin": 0.031986 } }, { "target": "keyPass", "predicted": 0.7017096281051636, "model_output": 0.7017, "scale": "count per match", "top_features": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.1455 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "importance": 0.126 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0911 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0788 }, { "name": "keyPass", "importance": 0.03 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 0.6867, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.2624 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0625 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "contribution": 0.0597 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "contribution": 0.0483 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "contribution": 0.0376 } ], "others": 0.0693, "total": 0.7017, "log_link": true, "margin_base": -0.375804, "item_margins": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "margin": -0.481491 }, { "name": "accurateOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.137503 }, { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "margin": 0.115702 }, { "name": "accuratePass", "margin": 0.084686 }, { "name": "expectedAssists", "margin": 0.061246 } ], "others_margin": 0.103922 } }, { "target": "rating", "predicted": 6.781824588775635, "model_output": 6.7818, "scale": "0-10", "top_features": [ { "name": "totalOppositionHalfPasses", "importance": 0.0591 }, { "name": "totalPass", "importance": 0.0494 }, { "name": "rating", "importance": 0.0477 }, { "name": "dribbleValueNormalized", "importance": 0.0452 }, { "name": "is_starting_11", "importance": 0.0416 } ], "decomposition": { "base": 6.7708, "items": [ { "name": "is_starting_11", "contribution": -0.0997 }, { "name": "totalPass", "contribution": 0.0255 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Missing provider values count as 0 only when the provider recorded that stat for the match." } }, { "step": "market_value_boost", "description": "Market-value quality scaling (boost 1.0123, quality 0.881)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0882, "goals": 0.0857, "goal_rate": 0.0857, "shots_on_target": 0.378, "total_shots": 1.0716, "expected_assists": 0.0661, "key_pass": 0.7103, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 24.11, "total_pass": 13.2156, "accurate_pass": 10.4421, "duels_won": 3.2772, "total_long_balls": 0.7455, "accurate_long_balls": 0.3935, "total_opp_half_passes": 9.5908, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7.3871, "crosses_total": 0.2579, "crosses_accurate": 0.2579, "touches": 23.5919, "possession_lost": 7.0277, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 3.6412, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.5579, "won_contest": 0.6289, "ball_recovery": 2.1469, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.4876, "fouls_drawn": 1.0753, "assists": 0.1497, "assist_rate": 0.1497, "interceptions": 0.2355, 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"possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assists": 0.1679, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0423, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05 }, "params": { "stats_clamped": 0, "shot_identity_applied": false } }, { "step": "scoreline_reset", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: goal/assist counters reset to 0; the team's 1 goals are handed out as whole numbers by integer_goal_projection / integer_assist_projection", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.099, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0423, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0 }, "params": { "scoreline_reset": true, "team_goals": 1 } }, { "step": "team_lambda_rescale", "description": "Player expected_goals/expected_assists rescaled to unconditional contributions so squad sum equals team lambda 1.42 (squad xG sum 1.2754, xG scale 1.1149, xA scale 1.1149, team xA 1.01 = 0.71 x lambda)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "creation_factor": 1.25 }, "params": { "team_lambda": 1.422, "squad_xg_sum": 1.2754, "squad_xa_sum": 0.9076, "team_expected_assists": 1.0119, "team_xa_to_xg_ratio": 0.7116, "bench_appearance_weighted": true, "xg_scale": 1.1149, "xa_scale": 1.1149, "opponent_lambda": 1.661, "scoreline_reset": true, "appearance_weight": 0.37 }, "changes": [ { "stat": "expected_goals", "before": 0.099, "after": 0.0408 }, { "stat": "expected_assists", "before": 0.0742, "after": 0.0306 } ] }, { "step": "rankings_attached", "description": "Display-only provenance: no published number changes. Global ranking attached (match squad rank 14 by projected rating, fifa_overall 84.0)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "squad_rank_basis": "projected_rating", "affects_projection": false, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "global_player_rank": 356, "fifa_rank": 201.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "ranking_match": "player_id", "fifa_overall": 84.0 } }, { "step": "integer_goal_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected goals distributed by scorer weight (xG x finishing x appearance)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_goals": 1, "goals_allocated": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "scorer_weight": 0.0398, "squad_weight_total": 1.4656, "weight_share": 0.0272, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "appearance_weight": 0.37, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bryan Mbeumo", "weight": 0.3991, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.3991, "runner_up": "Bruno Fernandes", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.2902 } ] } }, { "step": "integer_assist_projection", "description": "Team scoreline allocation: 1 projected assists distributed by provider weight (xA x creation x appearance; nobody assists his own goal)", "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0408, "goal_rate": 0.0954, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0.4234, "total_shots": 1.2015, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "key_pass": 0.7969, "rating": 6.7818, "minutes": 27.05, "total_pass": 14.8267, "accurate_pass": 11.7151, "duels_won": 3.6767, "total_long_balls": 0.8364, "accurate_long_balls": 0.4415, "total_opp_half_passes": 10.76, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8.2876, "crosses_total": 0.2926, "crosses_accurate": 0.2893, "touches": 26.4679, "possession_lost": 7.8844, "dispossessed": 1.1249, "duels_lost": 4.0851, "aerial_lost": 0.6205, "total_contest": 1.7478, "won_contest": 0.7056, "ball_recovery": 2.4086, "challenges_lost": 0.4792, "fouls": 0.5438, "fouls_drawn": 1.2004, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "assists": 0, "interceptions": 0.262, "tackles_won": 0.7089, "tackles": 1.2486, "clearances": 0.1976, "blocks": 0.0, "big_chances_created": 0.2034, "big_chances_missed": 0.0, "xgot": 0.0174, "offsides": 0.1484, "ball_carries": 7.2416, "total_progression": 42.3399, "progressive_carries": 1.0822, "shots_off_target": 0.778, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.37, "bench_expected_minutes": 27.05, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.541, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0386, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0294, "finishing_factor": 0.9758, "creation_factor": 1.25, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "params": { "allocation_applied": true, "team_assists": 1, "assists_allocated": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0294, "assist_rate": 0.1679, "provider_weight": 0.0382, "squad_weight_total": 0.9934, "weight_share": 0.0385, "creation_factor": 1.25, "appearance_weight": 0.37, "weight_rank": 10, "eligible_players": 14, "allocation_rounds": [ { "n": 1, "player": "Bruno Fernandes", "weight": 0.2738, "already": 0, "effective_weight": 0.2738, "runner_up": "Mason Mount", "runner_up_effective_weight": 0.1076, "blocked_own_goal": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ] } ] } } ] } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.42, "expected_assists": 1.01, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 506, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 6.9, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 101000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.894, "defenders": [ "Diogo Dalot" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.535, "xg_contribution": 0.2104, "xg_multiplier": 1.0805, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Diogo Dalot", "role": "RB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.465 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (LW) is slightly favored against Diogo Dalot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€101M vs €28M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.08 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.210 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1659, "xg_multiplier": 0.9313, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €37M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.93 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Danny Welbeck", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1476, "xg_multiplier": 0.7224, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Danny Welbeck (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €37M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.72 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Geovany Quenda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 45000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.805, "defenders": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1525, "xg_multiplier": 0.9027, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayden Heaven", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Geovany Quenda (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Ayden Heaven and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.152 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.0357, "xg_multiplier": 1.0085, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Baleba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CDM) is evenly matched against Carlos Baleba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €63M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.01 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jordan Henderson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Carlos Baleba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.239, "xg_contribution": 0.0571, "xg_multiplier": 0.7334, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Baleba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.761 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Henderson (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Carlos Baleba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €63M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.73 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Wesley Fofana" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.21, "xg_multiplier": 0.9049, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Wesley Fofana", "role": "RB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Wesley Fofana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.90 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.210 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mason Mount", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Jordan Henderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.666, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.243, "xg_contribution": 0.0877, "xg_multiplier": 1.0048, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 }, { "player": "Jordan Henderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mason Mount (CAM) is evenly matched against Moisés Caicedo and Jordan Henderson in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €53M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×1.00 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Josh Acheampong", "Jorrel Hato" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3415, "xg_multiplier": 0.9624, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Josh Acheampong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "role": "CB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (ST) is evenly matched against Josh Acheampong and Jorrel Hato in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €38M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.96 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.341 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Josh Acheampong", "Jorrel Hato" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1215, "xg_multiplier": 0.9132, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Josh Acheampong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jorrel Hato", "role": "CB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Josh Acheampong and Jorrel Hato in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Matchup xG multiplier ×0.91 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Baleba", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "xg_contribution": 0.0567, "xg_multiplier": 0.9915, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.586 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Baleba (CDM) is evenly matched against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €104M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.99 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Youri Tielemans", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0569, "xg_multiplier": 0.9467, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youri Tielemans (CDM) is evenly matched against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €104M avg). Matchup xG multiplier ×0.95 (×1.00 = his usual level). Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.742, "away_midfield_power": 0.787, "home_creative_power": 0.764, "away_creative_power": 0.702, "home_defensive_power": 0.76, "away_defensive_power": 0.656, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.485, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Cole Palmer", "Moisés Caicedo", "Jordan Henderson" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mason Mount", "Bruno Fernandes", "Carlos Baleba", "Youri Tielemans" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Moisés Caicedo vs Carlos Baleba", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.002, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.0 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.661, "away_lambda": 1.422, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "Diogo Dalot", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Danny Welbeck": { "opponents": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Geovany Quenda": { "opponents": [ "Ayden Heaven", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Mason Mount", "Youri Tielemans", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Baleba", "Mason Mount" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Wesley Fofana": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Josh Acheampong": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorrel Hato": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mike Penders": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Levi Colwill": { "opponents": [ "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Diogo Dalot": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ayden Heaven": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "Danny Welbeck", "Geovany Quenda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leny Yoro": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "Danny Welbeck", "Geovany Quenda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carlos Baleba": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Wesley Fofana", "Moisés Caicedo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mason Mount": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Jordan Henderson" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Josh Acheampong", "Jorrel Hato" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Josh Acheampong", "Jorrel Hato" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "Geovany Quenda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Harry Maguire": { "opponents": [ "Danny Welbeck" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Moisés Caicedo vs Carlos Baleba will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.77, Away: 0.87. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "league_anchor": 1.45, "home_advantage_factor": 1.2992, "ha_source": "estimated:league", "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9159, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1274, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9095, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.895, "home_midfield_factor": 1.002, "away_midfield_factor": 1.0, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7418, "away_avg_quality": 0.7452, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0034, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.1991, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3102, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1128, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0344, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.7692, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 0.9394 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.002, "result": 0.9413 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 0.9413 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.2992, "result": 1.2229 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.1155, "result": 1.3642 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.8743, "result": 1.1928 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.9095, "result": 1.0848 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.1274, "result": 1.2122 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.2122, "result": 1.2122, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0344, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.2122, "result": 1.2122 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.2122 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "home", "bonus": 0.1967, "result": 1.4087 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "home", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.8102 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.8102, "result": 1.81, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 1.1, "result": 1.991 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 0.9857, "pre": 1.991, "result": 1.9625, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.963 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.963 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.963, "result": 1.963, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.661 } ], "away_lambda_chain": [ { "label": "league_anchor", "value": 1.45 }, { "label": "duel_blend", "raw_xg": 0.8743, "n_duels": 6, "duel_confidence": 0.75, "result": 1.0182 }, { "label": "midfield_factor", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0182 }, { "label": "formation_bonus", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0182 }, { "label": "home_advantage", "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0182 }, { "label": "standing_factor", "factor": 1.0324, "result": 1.0512 }, { "label": "gk_opposition", "factor": 0.9159, "result": 0.9628 }, { "label": "defensive_solidity", "factor": 0.895, "result": 0.8617 }, { "label": "set_piece_bonus", "bonus": 0.18, "result": 1.0417 }, { "label": "engine_clamp", "pre": 1.0417, "result": 1.0417, "band": [ 0.6, 4.0 ], "clamped": false }, { "label": "quality_gap", "applied": false, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0344, "factor": 1.0, "pre": 1.0417, "result": 1.0417 }, { "label": "stage_discount", "applied": false, "factor": 1.0, "result": 1.0417 }, { "label": "bench_bonus", "side": "away", "bonus": 0.22, "result": 1.262 }, { "label": "fbref_blend", "side": "away", "applied": true, "blending_weight": 0.192, "empirical_lambda": 3.5, "result": 1.6917 }, { "label": "router_clamp", "pre": 1.6917, "result": 1.692, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "second_leg", "applied": true, "factor": 0.97, "result": 1.641 }, { "label": "h2h_adjustment", "applied": true, "multiplier": 1.0143, "pre": 1.641, "result": 1.6645, "available": true }, { "label": "mismatch_pressure", "applied": false, "reason": "quality gap below 0.30", "result": 1.664 }, { "label": "underdog_floor", "applied": false, "mode": "disabled_ablation", "result": 1.664 }, { "label": "final_clamp", "applied": false, "pre": 1.664, "result": 1.664, "band": [ 0.65, 4.8 ] }, { "label": "competition_calibration", "applied": true, "reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "samples": 105, "scale": 0.85, "observed_total_goals": 2.781, "result": 1.422 } ], "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1967, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.22, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "fbref_team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Chelsea", "away_squad": "Manchester United", "home_goals_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.0, "competitive_underdog_floor_mode": "disabled_ablation", "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.963, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.664, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.8102, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6917, "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_reason": "competition_intensity_calibration", "competition_calibration_samples": 105, "competition_observed_total_goals": 2.781, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.661, "final_away_lambda": 1.422 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1155, "attack_index": 1.213, "defense_concede_index": 1.068, "form_multiplier": 1.024, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.68, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.48, "team_ppg": 1.51, "opponent_ppg": 1.08 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0324, "attack_index": 0.96, "defense_concede_index": 1.141, "form_multiplier": 0.976, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.33, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.58, "team_ppg": 1.08, "opponent_ppg": 1.51 }, "xgboost_reasoning": { "summary": "Antagonist + XGBoost match analysis for Chelsea vs Man Utd. Player statistics regressed using position-specific XGBoost models (G, D, M, F) with 2026-2027 FBref priors. Micro-duels resolved across 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1 (duel lambdas: Home 1.810, Away 1.692). Final calibrated Poisson lambdas: Home 1.661, Away 1.422 (most likely score 2-1).", "competition": "Premier League", "model_coverage": { "home_starters_count": 11, "home_xgboost_players": 11, "home_fbref_players": 7, "away_starters_count": 11, "away_xgboost_players": 11, "away_fbref_players": 8, "home_bench_modelled": 7, "away_bench_modelled": 7 }, "team_priors": { "applied": true, "home_squad": "Chelsea", "away_squad": "Manchester United", "home_goals_per90": 3.5, "away_goals_against_per90": 2.5, "away_goals_per90": 2.0, "home_goals_against_per90": 3.5, "home_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "away_empirical_lambda": 3.5, "blending_weight": 0.192 }, "pipeline_stages": [ "1. XGBoost player regressions for volume & event rates with market-value quality scaling", "2. Multi-source prior blending (FBref 2026-2027 tables + Sofascore season history)", "3. Antagonist formation duel matrix resolving 1v1 and zonal matchups", "4. Team-level prior calibration (FBref possession and attack/defense efficiencies)", "5. Bivariate Poisson matrix with Dixon-Coles low-score correction" ], "final_lambdas": { "home_lambda": 1.661, "away_lambda": 1.422, "micro_duel_home_lambda": 1.81, "micro_duel_away_lambda": 1.692 }, "calibration_and_pressure": { "competition_calibration_applied": true, "competition_calibration_scale": 0.85, "mismatch_pressure_applied": false, "underdog_floor_applied": false } }, "timestamp": "2026-10-30T13:30:57Z", "outcome_baseline": null, "stat_limits": { "saves": 15.0, "goalsPrevented": 5.0, "keeperSaveValue": 3.0, "interceptionWon": 10.0, "totalTackle": 12.0, "wonTackle": 10.0, "totalClearance": 18.0, "aerialWon": 15.0, "aerialLost": 12.0, "totalPass": 150.0, "accuratePass": 145.0, "keyPass": 8.0, "expectedAssists": 1.5, "goalAssist": 4.0, "expectedGoals": 3.0, "expectedGoalsOnTarget": 6.0, "xgot": 6.0, "goals": 5.0, "totalShots": 12.0, "onTargetScoringAttempt": 8.0, "shotOffTarget": 8.0, "rating": 10.0, "minutesPlayed": 130.0, "duelWon": 20.0, "duelLost": 20.0, "ballRecovery": 18.0, "fouls": 12.0 } }